DC-AMS NEWSLETTER
W ASHINGTON , DC C HAPTER OF THE A MERICAN M ETEOROLOGICAL S OCIETY
WWW . DC - AMS . ORG
C HAIR ’ S C ORNER
by Steve Tracton
It seems that fall weather has finally ar-
rived after what seems to have been an exten-
sion of summer temperatures and humidity
through most of October. As New York Times
columnist Tom Friedman said in a recent Op-
Ed article with temperatures in the upper 70’s
in Washington in late October, “.. the leaves
had barely changed to fall colors. I’ve never
seen that before”. He likened the “I’ve never
seen that before” to the smoke and fires in
southern California - “…billowing from moun-
tain caverns like so many smoldering volca-
noes”. Coupled with “it does seem that we keep
having more and more weather events and sea-
sons that are modified with the words ‘since
records have been kept’”, Friedman asks a fun-
damental question of our times, “Is man’s cu-
mulative impact on the climate now as respon-
sible for the weather as Mother Nature her-
self?”. Given the abundance and wide range
of reports, scientific articles, etc., and, not
unimportantly, political spin on this question,
each of you can make your own judgment on
the answer. Whatever the answer, the subject
is becoming increasingly more relevant and
newsworthy to the extent, as Friedman notes -
though perhaps somewhat exaggerated - “the
Weather Channel is slowly morphing into the
news channel. Local news at 10 p.m. used to
be titled, “News, weather and sports.” I fear
that for our kids it’s going to be, “Weather,
other news and sports.” For me personally,
it’s my grandkids (ages 3 and 9 months) who
will face the ramifications and consequences
should all this turn out to be close to the mark
– as I fear will be the case. For more on the
OCTOBER 2007
current and potential future state of the environ-
ment, I strongly recommend taking a look at the
just released United Nations Environment
Program’s (UNEP) Global Environment Outlook
(GEO-4.) . GEO-4 is the most comprehensive UN
report on the environment in 20 years. It assesses
the current state of the global atmosphere, land,
water and biodiversity, and describes the changes
since the last report (1987), as well as identifying
priorities for action. The report can be found at:
http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/index.asp.
Not included in the report is an old joke: “First
cave man to 2nd cave man: I don’t care what you
say. We never had such unusual weather before
they started using bows and arrows”. Whatever,
at least locally over the short term there is some
good news: the severity of drought in this area has
been dented with the welcome heavy 3-day rains
near the end of October.
On another personal, but related note, it
was a pleasure to nominate and then see the selec-
tion of Dr. Warren Washington as recipient of the
2007 Experience Works Prime Time Award from
the state of Colorado. Experience Works is an or-
ganization dedicated to improving the lives of older
workers. Its annual Prime Time Awards program
identifies and honors individuals from all across
America, and from all walks of life, who continue
to work, achieve, and contribute in outstanding
ways to society past the standard retirement age.
When my wife, who not coincidentally is the Com-
munications Director for Experience Works, ca-
sually asked if I had any suggestions for a candi-
date from Colorado (knowing my familiarity with
personages at NCAR and NOAA labs),
(Chair’s Corner contined)
Warren Washington immediately came to mind.
than not trumps science. For more, whether you
Warren played a pioneering role developing so-
attended the meeting or not, Chris’s book is a
phisticated climate models and has been a leader
terrific read. For further insight on the generally
in advancing knowledge and understanding of
inextricable links between science policy and
earth’s climate. He has earned numerous
politicization of science, a great place to begin is
awards for his passionate support, mentorship,
the AMS Policy Program (http://
and initiatives to guide young people of diverse
www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy).
background into scientific careers. In his ac-
ceptance statements, Warren urges government
The Chapter officers have been meeting
to “think about the world you leave your chil-
routinely to ensure we continually offer a dynamic
dren. Climate change is an intergenerational
and rewarding program to members. The No-
problem – not to be dealt with in one presiden-
vember meeting will feature Linwood Vincent,
tial or congressional term” and to “have a
Chief of the Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Re-
shared responsibility to find ways to deal with
search Division of ONR, who will talk about
it”. To young people, he asserts that “their
“Rogue Waves”. The meeting is scheduled for
potential is limitless, especially if they’re pre-
November 28 at the American Institute of Archi-
pared to change careers several times in their
tects (AIA). Notice of final details will be forth-
lives”. Sounds pretty good to me! For more
coming ASAP. The meeting in January will be on
information on Warren Washington and Expe-
the 30th, when we expect to have Mike Mogil
rience Works, see respectively:
give a talk and lead a discussion on “Extreme
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/warren/ and
Weather”, the title of his just published book. In
http://www.experienceworks.org/site/
line with recognizing the interdisciplinary nature
PageServer .
of meteorology, we are planning for sometime
after the New Year a special joint meeting with
I’m gratified to report that the new
the local chapter of the Acoustics Society. This
Chapter year has begun on a high note, the pri-
may seem at first pressing the bounds of “related
mary example being our first meeting featur-
disciplines” from the obvious, such as oceanog-
ing Chris Mooney. Chris’s talk focused on the
raphy. What we have in mind is the subject of the
subject of his recently published book, “Storm
possible use of acoustics in detecting tornado
World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle
activity. As noted in the September Newsletter
over Global Warming”. The meeting was well
we also are planning “special” meetings that take
attended and the talk was very well received
advantage of prominent out-of-town visitors, par-
with much interesting discussion after the for-
ticipation in the CAPSCI-08 meeting, social/net-
mal presentation. Unlike what some might have
working events such as “happy hours” and game
expected a priori, Chris’s take was essentially
nights (e.g., weather trivia) and possibly a Chap-
objective and unbiased – “just the facts, man”
ter picnic in the spring. But, remember this is
( for the younger crew, this was a classic, oft
your Chapter, not the sole domain of the goals
repeated line from the old 1950’s TV series,
and planning exercises of its officers. So, we wel-
Dragnet) One screaming message of the talk
come any and all suggestions and/or construc-
and discussion was the intertwining of relevant
tive criticism regarding Chapter matters. I reiter-
science and politics of climate change, gener-
ate also that we encourage your submissions for
ally, and the issue of global warming and its
news and notes, including “about our members”
possible effects on hurricane intensity, fre-
contributions, short pieces on local weather
quency, etc., specifically. Chris and for the most
events, pictures of interest, commentary on is-
part others familiar with science policy (myself
sues of current interest/controversy, career op-
included) agree that, unfortunately, politics
portunities, meetings and events of likely inter-
more often
est, and ….whatever.
.
(Chair’s Corner contined)

Finally, the national AMS has given

the OK to include paid advertisements in the
Newsletter. All proceeds of advertising will
go towards the Chapter’s Scholarship fund.
If you have something to offer, sell, raise
awareness of, or announce, please let me or
Andrea Bleistein (Co-Chair) know to discuss
rates and content.

Yeah, Red Sox!

Steve

Chris Mooney talk and book signing, Sept. 26, 2007

From Our Members:

Internet Partnership Radio and New Weather Show Hitting the Internet Airwaves

Submitted by Aaron DeBruin

(Senior, Seneca Valley High School
Germantown, MD)

Internet Partnership Radio (IPR) is a non-profit organization dedicated to severe weather,

hurricanes, and winter storm coverage. During the most severe weather events, IPR offers live
coverage that interrupts its otherwise regularly scheduled programming. During normal program-
ming hours IPR offers various music, talk, and news programming, including the Second Life
Radio Network. IPR has 3 weather shows that air live each week and are also available on
Podweather.com, which include Center of Circulation Tuesdays at 9 PM with Charlie Wilson and
Michael Moss, and Weather 101 Saturdays at 7 PM with Aaron DeBruin and Casey Newell. New-
est to the lineup is the familiar Weather Talk Radio show, with Tony Pann and Charlie Wilson, now
on Tuesdays at 8 PM before Center of Circulation. You can listen to all IPR our shows live at http:/
/www.ipr365.com and also get all our all our podcasts at http://www.podweather.com.
News and Notes:

Dealing with Forecast Uncertainty – Andrea Bleistein

Weather forecasts will ALWAYS be coupled with varying degrees of uncertainty. Indeed, it’s
safe to say that forecast uncertainty is the only thing that is certain. Nevertheless, although there are
notable exceptions, most current forecast products and services are based on single, deterministic pre-
dictions with no accompanying forecast uncertainty information. Said information is crucial for informed
risk analysis and decision making across the spectrum of users from the general public to, for example,
emergency management agencies and agricultural and energy interests. The nature of the relevant issues
and recommendations to address the problem are described in the 2006 National Research Council
report: “Completing the Forecast. Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Deci-
sions Using Weather and Climate Forecast.” (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11699).

In response to the NRC report the Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF) was
formed recently by the AMS Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise (CWCE). The primary
charge of the ACUF is to engage the weather and climate enterprise in identifying a vision for forecast
uncertainty characterization and communication and to develop and implement responsive products and
services that leverage partner capabilities and ensure optimum comprehension by users and customers.
The committee, chaired by Elliot Abrams (AccuWeather) and Paul Hirschberg (NOAA) is currently in
the process of drafting its formal charter describing its mission, vision, deliverables, organization, and
work plan.

On a related AMS note, the ACUF is planning to have a Town Hall at the 88th AMS Annual
Meeting being held in New Orleans on January 23rd. Please see a more detailed announcement in the
November Bulletin of the AMS as well as logistical schedule information on the national AMS website
(www.ametsoc.org).

More sophisticated ensemble systems, strategies, and products

are key enablers for assessing forecast uncertainty.
 DC- AMS Treasure’s Report
September 2007
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
TWQ MONTH OUTLOOK

9/01/07 Beginning Balance: $ 8,035.82

Income:

Memberships via website and mail $40.00

Memberships via Paypal
(2 New Members, 1 New Ed,
1 Ed Renew): $80.00

Total Income: $120.00

JANUARY - MARCH 2008, TEMPERATURE

Expenses:
OUTLOOK
Sept. Monthly Bank Services for cancelled checks
$5.00

PayPal Fees (1 Transaction) $2.38

Varying percentages for $5(9%), $15(5%),

$25(4%), $35(3.75%) ——

Total Expenses: $7.38

Income – Expenses (September): $112.62

Ending Balance (09/31/07): $8,148.44

JANUARY - MARCH 2008, PRECIPITATION

OUTLOOK
 “GHOST” OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN

The composite radar reflectivity on August 19, 2007 shows the “ghost” of Tropical
Storm Erin re-intensifying over Oklahoma with an “eye-like” structure. Oklahoma Mesonet
data shows that the sustained wind speed met the minimum tropical-storm threshold of 35
knots for at least three hours. Erin gradually dissipated after making landfall in Texas. But, a
confluence of a mid-level trough moving eastward from New Mexico, a southerly low-level
jet delivering a surge of very humid air, and possibly high surface moisture from the very we
wet spring and summer set the stage for a rare (but not unprecedented) re-intensification over
land. CNN said the remnants unexpectedly turned central Oklahoma into a “wash basin” with
rescuers on helicopters plucking people from flood waters and rooftops. Two people died and
at least two others were hurt. (Primary Source: Earth Science Picture of the Day for October
24, 2007 http://epod.usra.edu/ )
 SNOW ON OCTOBER 10th

I’ll bet that got your attention, especially given the recent warmth. But it’s true, except the
year was 1979! Oct. 10th was the anniversary of the earliest measurable snowfall on record in
Metro Washington and Baltimore. A cold rain the night before, which postponed the 1979 World
Series opener at Memorial Stadium between the Orioles and the Pittsburgh Pirates, turned to
snow overnight. An official total of 0.3”of wet snow was recorded at DCA and BWI and 1.3” at
Dulles before it ended. There was more accumulation, up to 7”, to the north and west of the city.
It coated grass and trees and stuck to roads in Carroll and northern Baltimore counties. The
Evening Sun that afternoon said more than 80,000 BG&E customers lost power during the storm
as heavily laden trees, many still in leaf, sagged and snapped power lines. Not only was this the
earliest measurable snow for the season, October 10, 1979 remains the only October day on
record with measurable snow in this area. Of note too is that Southern New England experienced
between 2 and 7 inches of snow on Oct. 9-10, 1979 — making for the greatest amount of snow so
early in the season for that area.

What will this winter bring?? Let’s go straight to our winter weather guru:

A more professional view looks to be closely tied to the strengthening La Niña conditions
across the tropical Pacific. Increasing negative SST anomalies extend along the equator from the
Date Line eastward to the South American coast and model forecasts indicate La Niña will continue
through early 2008. Keep up with developments updated weekly and ramifications to the seasonal
outlooks, as above, for this winter at the NOAA/NCEP/EMC web site: http://
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/lamina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf.
 VON KARMAN VORTICES

As air flows over and around objects in its path, spiraling eddies, known as Von
Karman vortices, may form. The vortices in this image were created when prevailing winds
sweeping east across the northern Pacific Ocean encountered Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.

Landsat 7 Image (7/4/2002)

 In last month’s Newsletter (Sept. ’07) we reported upon the record 24-hour rainfall of
1,633.98 mm recorded a Mexican island off the Yucatan peninsula which resulted from the
passage of Hurricane Wilma , 21 October 2005. The world record for most precipitation in a
72-hour period was shattered last February when 3.929 meters (12.9 feet) fell on the small
French Island of Réunion in the South Indian Ocean east of Madagascar. The island has two
tall volcanoes that rise over 8,500 feet, which can squeeze prodigious amounts of rain when
strong winds force tropical moist up their flanks. The rainfall in this case was associated with
Tropical Cyclone Gamede (Cat 3). The storm did not pass over the island, but passed close
enough (120 miles away) and moved slowly enough that its outer spiral bands stayed over the
island for many days. By the way, Réunion held the previous record of 3.24 meters (10.6 feet)
for a 3-day precipitation event during January 1980 in Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe. (Source:
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog, http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/ )
Harvest Moon Photos -- September 26, 2007
Photos by Kevin Ambrose

Harvest Moon rising over Washington,

7:11pm, September 26, 2007

Harvest Moon over the Marine Corp

Memorial, 8:09pm, September 26, 2007
 Call for Volunteers
The International Environmental Data Rescue Organization (IEDRO) is looking for committed
volunteers. See the information below and on their website (http://IEDRO.ORG):

The International Environmental Data Rescue Organization (IEDRO) seeks out, rescues, and
digitizes historic environmental data from old weather records to photographs of glaciers throughout
the world. We support data projects in nearly a dozen countries ranging from Chile to Zambia. Our
efforts directly affect the lives of families throughout the world in the areas of public health and safety,
weather forecasts and warnings, agriculture, rural development, climate change and global warming
issues.

To date through our efforts over 1,250,000 historic weather observations have been rescued and
digitized placed into the world data base at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center accessable to all the
world’s educators and researchers. Our headquarters is in the Washington, D.C. metro area in Deale,
Maryland (just south of Annapolis). Our 20 current volunteers are scattered throughout the U.S. and
Canada.
The Executive Director needs two or three individuals, preferably degreed meteorologists, cli-
matologists, hydrologists or environmental scientists, to volunteer time at the IEDRO Headquarters in
Deale, MD to assist with a variety of tasks. Although we can use whatever time our volunteers can
dedicate, we hope that at least one of the volunteers can spend at least two 6-8 hour days per week at
IEDRO Headquarters. Some of the most pressing tasks include...
1 Helping to establish IEDRO’s scientific and operational goals and devise programs to meet them.
2 Researching historical data sparce areas
3 Researching ways in which historic environmental data saves lives and improves the lives of the
world’s citizens
4 Designing the IEDRO Booth for the 2008 AMS Meeting in New Orleans (this is IEDRO’s third
year participating)
5 Working with our programmer to verify our new computer program to digitize meteorological
strip charts (i.e. thermograms, barograms, precipitation charts etc.)
6 Assisting with the development of an ACCESS data base of all our contacts interested in data
rescue.
7 Developing presentations to scientific and educational organizations
8 Assisting with development of fund raising efforts
9 Working with the web administrator to ensure the accuracy and focus of our IEDRO web site.

These are not positions for the faint hearted nor for folks who want to dabble in a
“feel-good effort” for a couple of weeks and then depart for something else. These key
positions are geared solely for volunteers who are willing to spend time learning what
we do and IF they find the effort worthwhile, will be committed to rolling up sleaves
and keeping this critical effort moving.