Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Overview
Fundamental Global Warming Questions Weather and Climate The Origin of the Global Warming Issue The Atmosphere How We Study Climate The Greenhouse Effect The Major Greenhouse Gases Climate Change and Feedback Loops Causes of Climate Change The Oceans and Climate Change Forecasting Climate Change Potential Rates of Global Climate Change Potential Environmental, Ecological and Human Effects of Global Warming
Increase in average surface temperature of the Earth from 1860 to the present
Is the present rapid warming unprecedented or at least so rare that many living things will not be able to respond successfully to it? To what extent, have people caused it?
What are likely to be the effects on people? What are likely to be the effects on all life on Earth? How can we make forecasts about it and other kinds of climate change? What can we do to minimize potential negative effects?
Weather
Usually refers to long periods of time Classified mainly by latitude and wet/dry
Times of high temp involve relatively ice free periods Times of low temp involve glacial events
Certain gases trap heat energy and warm the planet Since this idea was first introduce has stirred controversy
The Atmosphere
Held near the surface by gravitation and pushed upward by thermal energy.
Nitrogen (78%) Oxygen (21%) Argon (0.9%) Carbon dioxide (0.03%) Water vapor Trace amounts of other gases/pollutants
Comprised of
Dynamic system
Atmospheric Processes
Atmospheric Processes
Varies from 1% to 4%
Atmospheric Processes
Produces global patterns of prevailing winds and latitudinal belts of high and low pressure
Almost all the energy from the sun Sunlight comes in a wide range of electromagnetic radiation
Long to short wavelengths Most of the radiation that reaches the Earth is in the infrared and visible wavelengths
Reflects ~30% of the electromagnetic energy that comes in from the sun absorbs ~25% The remaining ~45% gets to the surface
Instrumental Records
Improved instrumentation
Historical Records
Books, newspapers, journal articles, personal journals, ships logs, travelers diaries, and farmers logs
Paleoproxy records
Proxy data- not strictly climatic, but provides insight into climate
Tree rings, sediments, ice cores, fossil pollen, corals, and carbon-14 (14C)
Ice Cores
Polar ice and mountain glaciers have ice records that go back 100s or 1000s of years
Oldest is 800,000 years
Can measure carbon dioxide and methane levels from the time the ice was created
Tree Rings
Width, density and ionic composition of the ring are indicative of climate
Sediment
Biological material (ex: pollen) is deposited on the land and stored for extended periods in lake, bog, and pond sediments Pollen is useful
Quantity of pollen is an indicator of relative abundance of each plant species Pollen can be dated Can be used to construct a climate history
Coral
Certain gases are especially strong absorbers in the infrared They absorb radiation emitted by the warmed surfaces of the Earth They then re-emit this radiation This increases the temperature of the earths surface
Greenhouse Effect
No one doubts that the greenhouse effect exists and affects planets The puzzle arises on the Earth about relative importance of greenhouse gases in affecting climate Evidence indicates that carbon dioxide, methane, and temperature rise and fall together Most scientists conclude that greenhouse gases are causing climate change
The atmosphere and its interactions w/ the ocean and land surfaces experience positive and negative feedbacks Negative feedback
Warms temps warm air and lead to increased evaporation Evaporation leads to more cloud formation which reflects more sunlight which could cool the surface.
Positive feedback
Warms temps warm air and lead to increased evaporation but instead of clouds forming remain as water vapor Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. The warmer it gets the more water vapor, and the process continues
19th century
Scientists began to understand that climate changed greatly over long periods There were times of continental glaciations Evidence - debris at the edges of existing glaciers which looked the same as those deposited at lower elevations 100,000 year cycles divided into 20,000 40,000 year periods
Milankovitch Cycles
Explain why climate changes Earth is like a wobbling top following an elliptical orbit around the sun
Three Cycles
1. 26,000 year
Earth Does not keep its poles at a constant angle in relation to the sun Wobble around the pole makes a complete cycle in 26,000 years
3. 100,000 years
The combination of these lead to periodic changes in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth
Milankovitch showed that these variations correlated with major glacial and interglacial periods
Solar Cycles
Sometimes hotter, sometimes cooler Documented by differing amounts of isotopes trapped in glacial ice
Variability of solar input of energy explains some of the climatic variability too
From the sun coming in From the Earths surface going out Volcanoes, forest fires and farming put dust into the atmosphere Chemical and physical comp of atmosphere can make it warmer or cooler
Large amount of heat energy is stored in oceans As CO2 increases in atmosphere it also increases in the oceans
A global circulation of ocean waters If the conveyor was shut down, major changes in climate would occur
El Nio refers to a specific periodic variation of Pacific Ocean currents Under non-El Nio conditions
Trade-winds blow west across the tropical Pacific Warm surface water pile up in Western Pacific
Causes changes in weather in regions that are far removed from tropical Pacific
Surface water temperature rise off the South American coast inhibits the upwelling of nutrient-rich cold water from deeper levels
Upwelling releases carbon dioxide El Nio events reduce the amount of oceanic carbon outgassing
The past is the key to the future Has led to the extensive research on climates and atmospheric conditions of the past
Global surface temp has increased 0.2C/ decade in the past 30 years.
Eight warmest years have occurred since 1997 Continued warming of 0.2C /decade is projected.
By 2030
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will have doubled from pre-Industrial Revolution concentrations Average global temperature will have risen approximately 1 to 2C
Even greater temperature increases at poles Polar amplification
About half the people on Earth live on or near the coast - vulnerable to flooding
Threatens island nations Increase coastal erosion on open beaches and cause property loss. Cause landward progression of estuaries and salt marshes Lead to lost of coastal wetlands Threaten ground water supply in coastal communities
Tuvalu, the worlds smallest nation, may succumb to sea level rise
Far more glaciers are retreating than advancing worldwide Northern Hemisphere sea ice coverage has declined an average of 10.7% per decade since 1970s
This is consistent w/ prediction of global climate change models As Earth warms, more snow falls on Antarctica
The rate of melting of the Greenland ice sheet has doubled since 1998
approximately 220% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2 to 3C above preindustrial levels.
Black guillemots
Distance from feeding grounds to nest must be <30 km In recent years - 250km to feeding grounds
Agricultural Productivity-globally
Likely to increase in some regions and decline in others Locations most likely negatively effected
Mid-latitude food production Lands in the southern part of the N. Hemisphere
May become more arid & soil moisture relationships will change
Difficult to forecast
Two types
Adapt
Mitigate
Energy planning that relies heavily on energy conservation and efficiency Use of alternative energy sources or natural gas Use of mass transit Greater economic incentives to energyefficient technology Higher fuel-economy
Accounts for ~20% of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide Reduce this by minimizing burning and protecting the worlds forests
Planting more trees Increase biospheric sinks for carbon dioxide
Reforestation
Carbon Trading
Then corporations and other entities are issued emission permits, allowing a certain quantity of emissions These can be traded Overall nation does not exceed the cap
1988
First international meeting to discuss limiting greenhouse gases held (Toronto, Canada) Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. General blueprint for reduction of global emissions suggested US thought it would be to costly and no legally binding limits set
1992
1997