Marion 1 Trinity Marion ENG 102 Prof.

Botos/Causal Analysis April 2, 2014 The Causes and Effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports the changes observed in the climate over the last few decades are unprecedented. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, and the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea levels have risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (Summary for Policymakers). Since the beginning of the Industrial Age, which began sometime around 1760, the world has been competing for energy. American industrialists such as: Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, and John D. Rockefeller ushered in the post-Civil War modern era with their revolutionary innovations that marked a turning point for humanity. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations started to increase at the time of the Industrial Revolution and have been rapidly increasing ever since. As the industry has improved many aspects of human life, it is indisputable that these innovations are taking their toll on the planet and the effects are produced in the warming atmosphere. Ecologists understand these evolutional leaps made by mankind were conceived under the ignorance of the impending nature of this matter, since it was unknown that the foundation of growing societies would become so dependent on nonrenewable resources. In any event, these leaps had to be made for mankind to grow. The general consensus is that industrialization has caused the radical growth of fossil fuel combustion; which has increased the amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere and in turn is raising the average temperature of the Earth.

Marion 2 The burning of fossil fuels actually dates back earlier than the Industrial Age. In fact, according the U.S. Department of Energy, the North American Hopi Indians were using coal for cooking during the 1300s in the Southwestern United States (United States 1). It is the Industrial Revolution that began an overwhelming high demand of fossil fuels that has made scientists turn their focus on how much it is impacting our environment. There are many studies showing that the heavy uses of fossil fuels are speeding up natural climate trends to reach record highs and lows. Fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas are also non-renewable resources. About 90 percent of the worlds energy consumption today comes from fossil fuels. The combustion of fossil fuels is an anthropogenic cause. That is when an activity that contributes to increasing greenhouse gasses is human induced. Scientists have studied the Earths natural greenhouse effects as well as observing anthropogenic factors to determine how much human activity is actually affecting the climate. Many of the reports found on climate change often discuss both natural causes and human causes (Causes 1). Greenhouse gasses that are released in the atmosphere are not only released through human activities like fossil fuel combustion, but are also produced naturally through volcanic eruptions and animal defecation to name a few. Clara Deser, a climate scientist for the National Center for Atmospheric Research, et al., in a journal article titled, Projecting North American Climate over the next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability, explained that in order to isolate how much the effects of human activity has on climate change, they had to build two simulations of a climate model, with each simulation being identical so that they could measure the natural process and the difference in the external (human) process (2272). As more research like this has become available, climate scientist are now experiencing a whole new perspective on weather patterns

Marion 3 and exactly how much the increased release of greenhouse gasses will bring on future trends that will be unusual and not what should be expected by observation. In the fifth assessment report by the IPCC that was released in 2013, radiative forcing is defined as radiant energy received by the earth that is quantified at the lowest region of the atmosphere called the tropopause and measured in units of watts. It measures how the energy balance of the system is influenced when factors that affect the climate are altered by a deviation of an outside influence. The industrial activities that our society greatly depends on have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 379 parts per million in the last 150 years (Myhre, Shindell, Breon, and et al 8.1 664). To put it simply, the gas released by mans inventions are heating up the atmosphere faster than it would normally. As Desers research indicated, the American Meteorological Society were able to project the next 50 years of trends and their research found that the United States would be accompanied by warming trends of 1.5-3.5 degrees Celsius (Deser 2276). This rate of increase is likely to be unprecedented. A quote from the IPCC 2013 report: Summary for Policymakers; Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than the preceding decade since 1850 (IPCC). Warm weather and higher temperatures also lead to more droughts. According to the National Climatic Data Center, about 30 percent of the contiguous United States fell in the moderate to extreme drought categories based on the Palmer Drought Index (NOAA). These droughts are having an impact on agriculture. The NOAA reported that the vegetative stress is visible from satellite observations. They were also able to confirm that non irrigated crops are failing; even citing the statistics released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) 45 percent of winter wheat, 41 percent of domestic cattle, 25 percent of corn acreage,

Marion 4 and other foliage were affected by drought (NOAA). The increasingly arid conditions are greatly affecting the food supply. Another alarming effect is the heavy use of resources that are non-renewable. The rate at which fossil fuels are being used creates a worldwide dilemma. For oil companies, climate change is the big elephant in the room they wish to ignore, but no longer can. Their lobbyist fight to spread doubt among the general population, but the doubt is being diminished by scientific evidence being produced. Petroleum and its carbon emission combustion make up 36 percent of greenhouse gas emissions (Bluestein and Rackley 2-9). At the present situation, the global oil capitalist cannot afford to be in denial about it. Their energy source is running out and before it does, its affecting the future climate to become dangerous if not uninhabitable. Currently, China is in the number one position as the largest emitter of carbon emissions and the U.S. comes in at number two. At the defense of our fossil fuel industry, scientists only a decade ago thought that keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius would protect humanity from the dangers of a warming climate. Now it appears that the assessment was too optimistic according to science journalist John Carey in his article on Global Warming: Faster Than Expected? The latest data from around the globe show the planet is changing faster than expected (Carey 50). Carey further describes that summer ice in the artic is vanishing rapidly. In September of 2007, ice covered a record low of 4.17 million square kilometers; in September of 2012, it was down to 3.41 million square kilometers (qtd in Carey 50-55). According to Dr. Jonathan Koomey, PH.D of Stanford University, he purports that meeting the 2 Celsius degree warming limit implies that a significant fraction of proved fossil fuel reserves simply cannot be burned(Koomey). The significance of what Koomey is suggesting is that the world cannot rely on fossil fuel as an

Marion 5 energy source without causing substantial warming to the planet, especially in places like the Artic.

The Artic is feeling the effects of global warming the most. As the arctic ice is rapidly disappearing, the wildlife and indigenous cultures are suffering. The water from the melting glaciers is contributing to the rising sea levels. The rising sea levels are a threat to humans living near coastal areas. Over half of the American population lives within 50 miles of a coast. An increase in storm surges with the higher tides can cause massive flooding. In fact, climate scientist are predicting that we will see more frequent storm surges involving the coastal areas as the sea levels continue to rise. In Global Cooling: Science and Myth, an article by Jason M. Vogel and Brain Lazar, both research scientists on environmental studies, shed light that not only could a Florida family lose their home to a flood, but did indeed lose it to the skyrocketing insurance rates, while some Alaskan villagers are being warned to abandon their community as it erodes into the sea (Vogel 30). With the disappearing ice sheets, more of the earths surface is water. The white ice sheets reflect the suns energy. Those white sheets which are shrinking are now being replaced by more of the oceans darker surface. The darker surface absorbs the suns energy and is warming up the oceans water temperature. As the ocean is warming up, the pH levels of the ocean is becoming more acidic and that is negatively impacting the marine life. In an article titled, Ocean Acidification by National Geographic Magazine, in the last paragraph is written: Scientific awareness of ocean acidification is relatively recent, and researchers are just beginning to study its effects on marine ecosystems. But all the signs indicate that unless humans are able to control and eventually eliminate our fossil fuel emissions, ocean

Marion 6 organisms will find themselves under increasing pressure to adapt to their habitats changing chemistry or perish. (National Geographic) It may not be fully understood what the implications of an acidic ocean will be just yet; what is understood is that the ecosystems of the planet are dependent on a healthy ocean. With the alarming rate of the planet warming, environmental scientists like Paul Ekins, of the University College London, UK, has been working hard on an economic solution. Ekins wrote that he anticipates the results of global warming on its current trend will also affect every aspect of human life: mortality, water/food, cultural, and spiritual values. The results may even be catastrophic (Ekins 631). As the current levels of resource depletion and anthropogenic forcing is accelerated, we face a threat that is being posed at the long term global sustainability. Industrialization meant more productivity with less human energy. The amazing ingenuity of humans led the way to be able to bring on such significant transformations but, it has come with a cost. The cost of knowing this will not sustain forever. Our fossil fuels are depleting and the climate is altering faster than expected. This now means one thing: it is time for a change.

Marion 7

Works Cited Bluestein, Joel, and Jessica Rackley. Coverage of Petroleum Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under Climate Policy. Arlington: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2010. 2-9. eBook. <http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/coverage-petroleum-sector-emissions.pdf>. Carey, John. "Global Warming: Faster Than Expected?" Scientific American. Nov. 2012 50-55. Web. 30 Mar. 2014. "Causes of Climate Change." World Meteorological Organization. World Meteorological Organization.Web. 1-3. 30 Mar 2014. <http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/causes_of_climate_change.php>. Deser, Clara, Adam S. Phillips, Michael A. Alexander, et al. "Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability. Journal of Climate. 27.March (2014): 2272. Print. Ekins, Paul. "Environmental Sustainability: From Environmental Valuation to the Sustainability Gap." Progress in Physical Geography 35(5) (2011): 629-51. Academic Journal. Web. 8 Apr. 2014. NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Drought for February 2014, Published online March 2014, retrieved on April 3, 2014. Web. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/drought/2014/2. Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.M Breon, et al. IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 5th Assessment Report: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. Geneva, Switzerland: 2013. Web.

Marion 8 http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

Ocean Acidification. National Geographic. 2013: 1. Web. 3 Apr. 2014. http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-ocean-acidification Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013. Web. 2Apr. 2014. United States of America. US Department of Energy. Fossil Energy: A Brief History of Coal Use in the United States. Washington: 2013.