PHI 108 Full Semester Package

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Session #2 Thinking with your eyes
Concepts come with a structure. Visualizing and drawing that structure. Concepts have referents things that concepts apply to What are the referents of a concept? They are the things that concepts apply to Each concept has an extension. The extension of a concept is all the things that it applies to Concept of a dog Different dogs of all kinds Extension: squirmy, lovey, aggravated, wet nosed things the extension of the concept of a dog Concept of idea All types of emotion Concept of emotions Love, hate, anger, etc. are all concepts of emotion
So the extension of a word is: all the things that word applied to The word emotion applies to the anger over something. Anger is an extension of the concept of emotion. Extension of the word feeling: happy, angry, tingly, nauseous, hungry, etc. Philosopher: extension the term philosophy
Feeling Emotion *The extension of the concept dog is the set of all dogs Sets include one another Silverware Concept: Past, present, future silverwares Concept of spoons one of them includes the other
Silverware Spoons
All U.S. presidents All U.S. presidents shorter than 511 (in the set of all U.S. presidents) (Will be on test): a set A includes set B Just in case: everything in set B is also in set A. One concept is genus and another is species If the extension of the first one includes the extension of the second one
Spoons silverware eating utensils utensils More toward species: concrete More toward genus: abstract Dirt (concrete) potential (abstract) Love (abstract) marigold (concrete) Hope disappointment
Genus
Species
Classifications: 1) A single principle or set of principles should be used consistently so that the categories (species) are mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive 2) The principles used to be essential ones. What does mutually exclusive mean? When are two categories mutually exclusive? *Answer: When Nothing is in both categories no overlap Jointly exhaustive: everything youre talking about is in at least one of the categories* Ex: People, animals Not M.E. Dead People, Living People Yes M.E. Professional Football players, Professional Baseball players Not M.E. Presidents over 511 and those under 511 Yes M.E. Ideas on Tuesday, Ideas never on Tuesday
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Yes M.E. Ideas Ive never had on Tuesday and ideas hes never had on Tuesday Not M.E.
Jointly exhaustive: everything youre talking about is in at least one of the categories Ex: Dead people, Living People Yes J.E Pro Sports starts Pro football, pro baseball Not J.E. (b/c there are pro ice hockey) Animals People, Other animals Yes J.E. (all animals are either people or other animals) Animals People, Animals Yes J.E. (every animal is in at least one category) Presidents Past, president and future Over 511, under Not J.E. b/c of those who are exactly 511 Category tree Rodents: (j.e.?) Rodent Category 1: subcategory 1a 1b 1c Rodent Category 2: 2a 2b Rodent Category 3: 3a 3b 3c
Hand tools, Power tools, hammer, tools, hand saw, table saw, electric drill, 10 table saw, and claw hammer Tree: Hand tools and Power Tools Hand tools: hammer, hand saw Power Tools: Table saw, electric drill Table saw: 10 table saw In order to be successful, you need to be able to go from the bottom to the top
The atoms of thought: concepts

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Words express concepts Words go together to make sentences express propositions (what you claim, or what you say [not the sound waves or the marks on the page] but it is what you say in any language basically the concept/content/information of what you say). It is what is asserted in a sentence. A proposition is the content of a sentence Ex: The CIA has succeeded in killing the leader of a major terrorist organization The head of one of the major organizations has been killed by the CIA Same proposition The deed was done in the billiard room with the rope by the Colonel Mustard Colonel Mustard did it in the billiard room with the rope Same proposition Propositions arent the same as sentences. They are that are expressed by sentences. Two different sentences can express the same proposition. The same sentence a=can be used to express two different propositions.
The surgeon general says that smoking is bad for your health. Does that sentence assert that smoking is bad for your health? No because it is being conveyed.
Expected utility of an outcome: The probability of that outcome (*times*) its desirability Lottery 1 = 2% chance of winning $100 Lottery 2= 1% chance of winning $150
Lottery #1= .02*$100 = $2.00 expected utility Lottery #2= .01*$150 = $1.50 expected utility
No matter what he does, you do better if you defect.
Tit-for-tat: incentive for cooperation and staying cooperated. Same with defecting.
Socrates: 469-399BC Plato: 424-349 BC (wrote down nothing, he insisted the writing negatively impacts memory) Aristotle: 384-322BCs (wrote plays, all written. Exoteric works [popular, everyday medium] and esoteric work [not for public consumption]) credited with the invention of logic. Core of all logic: maybe we can systematize thought. Same amount of thinking with less real thinking. Faster, farther and more effective. Medieval intellectual life come from Aristotle logic (2000 years until 1850) A: All I: Some E: No O: some are not Provisos: Some means at least one Out of courtesy, this is an A: John F. Kennedy was a great President Contradictory: if one is true then the other must be false Implications: if the top is true, then the bottom must be true Contraries: Both cannot be true, but both can be false Sub-contraries: both cannot be false, but both can be true
Equivalent propositions: guaranteed to have the truth value. They are true together or false together.
Converse: No fish are rattlesnakes We switch the subject and predicate: No rattlesnakes are fish Equivalent proposition The complement of a term: Whales non-whales Mammals non-mammals People non-people Non-people people
Obverse: change the predicate to its complement, And Switch the charge of the whole proposition:
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Positive to negative, or negative to positive. All whales are mammals All whales are non-mammals No whales are non-mammals Some fish are rattlesnake Obverse: some fish are not non-rattle snakes 2 steps change the predicate to its complement and the positive to negative. Contrapositive: Switch the subject and predicate (as in converse), and replace both by their complements All inexperienced people are non-experts All non-experts are inexperienced people All experts are non-inexperienced people Or: all experts are experienced people
Contrapositive: logically equivalent are A and O Converse: logically equivalent are I and E Obverse: all are logically equivalent Phi 108 #06: Validity of categorical syllogisms using Venn diagrams 3 propositions
Some rabbits are rapid 2 reasons All rapid animals are dangerous Therefore, some rabbits are dangerous Conclusion
A syllogism has 3 propositions. First two are always the reason or the premises that are being given to you to get to the conclusions. It always has 3 terms. Valid argument: Reasons really do support the conclusion. The reasons really do entail the conclusion. The conclusion really follows from the reasons. A valid argument is one such that: If the premises are true, then the conclusion has to be true A valid argument is one such that: It is impossible for both: the premises to true and the conclusion to be false All carrots are purple All purple things are poisonous All carrots are poisonous All false but still valid Everything poisons is orange F
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Carrots are poisonous F Therefore carrots are orange T Still valid No valid arguments will be True, True, False. True, True = True
All carrots are legumes All legumes are delicious Conclusion: all carrots are delicious All countries in the Middle East are in turmoil All countries in turmoil have unpredictable futures Conclusion: all countries in the Middle East have unpredictable futures All As are Bs All Bs are Cs Conclusion: All As are Cs
No valid syllogism has two negative premises If the conclusion is particular, at least one premise is If the conclusion is negative, one premise is What is an argument: a structured set of propositions designed to demonstrate a conclusion. (A syllogism is included in this)
Premises _____________ Conclusion
Deductive validity: A valid argument is one such that: If the premises are true, the conclusion has to be true. It is impossible for both: the premises to be true and the conclusion to be false Validity in general: Degree of support between premises and conclusion Does this fact support this claim? Do these premises make the conclusion highly plausible? Does this evidence give us good reason to believe the conclusion? Arrow of logical relationship Reasons
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Conclusion This claim is intended to support this claim This is given as a reason to believe this 1+2 Dependent reasoning 3 1 3 2 Independent reasoning
There are two ways an argument can fail: 1) The propositions given as reasons have to be true 2) The reasons have to really support the conclusion
Something is a sound argument just in case [valid and true]: It is valid All premises are in fact true
Argument: Structured set of propositions designed to make a conclusion The problem of evil Greater goods defense a greater good that justifies a suffering through a suffering. Ex: vaccination. Suffering to get a greater good. The greater bad bad things that happen without good things happening first. Ex: loyal and helpful to a friend and they betray you anyway; couldnt have happen if you were their friend anyway. Free will defense
Bogus arguments and how to defuse them

Validity: Strong logical connection between premises and conclusion. Reasons have to support the conclusion
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Fallacies: standard bad arguments types
A majority of the population think we coddle criminals. Its time we go tough on crime Fallacy: appeal to the majority the name of the fallacy Problem: The fact that we agree on something doesnt mean that it is true. Post hoc ergo propter hoc a.k.a post hoc Ad hominem: of the man Fallacy because one gives an argument and you dont attack the argument but you attack the person Ad hominem is different because there are 2 subtypes: 1) Tu Quoque: you did it too, you started it 2) Poisoning the well: attacking the motives instead of the person/people False alternative: many choices rather than the only options being forced upon you Mistake: creates an exhaustive list Complex question: trap questions
The first person I met on Long Island was short and rude. The second person I met on Long Island was short and rude. I guess everybody on Long Island must be short and rude -Hasty Generalization (generalization from way too small a sample)Appealing to emotion not appealing but just pushing your buttons Imagine youre alone in a house when the lights suddenly go out. Somebodys cut the wires. Now you hear them breaking the patio door. Theyre coming closer to your bedroom dont you wish you had a gun? -Appeal to emotion. Emotional manipulation. This one is fear, there may be other ones. *Begging the question People tend to use this fallacy when its not to be used Its a specific type Ex: Good argument: a,b,c lead to d Begging the question: a,b,d lead to d ineffective, never going to convince anybody Straw man Pretending what the other persons debate is not what it really is and attacking it
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Diversion changing the subject Red Herring like diverting the blood hound when it chases someone by using a red hound. Fallacy of composition - if each has that property, then the entire doesnt have to have it. People confuse it with hasty generalization because each has individual things. Fallacy of equivocation: Switching meaning in the middle of the argument
Advertising is filled with fallacies: The number of 30-second commercials seen by the average American child in a year: 20,000 25% of men begin balding by age 30 66% of men begin balding by age 60 35 million American men are losing their hair 63% of Americans are either overweight or obese Unrealistic locations attractiveness attracts Unattractiveness advertisers as well Political advertising www.Alphaia.com Attractiveness Attracts May not be false but people may think to mean something: Recommended by doctors 4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend None proven more effective Faster acting than the leading brand
Rhetoric Aristotles (384-322 BCE) Rhetoric What makes a presentation effective? Ethos the character of the speaker Pathos the emotions of the hearer Logos the logic of the argument
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), The Art of Controversy

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes 38 rhetoric tricks Manipulate emotion: making the opponent angry and subsequently incoherent Use the Straw man: not opponents position and makes one seem intelligent Shift the burden of proof: classic. Making the opponent proving me wrong Use hateful labels: label opponents position with words that everyone hates
The ethics of argument When you wrap something in numbers, people tend to believe it is true. Statistics are factual and should be checked when and how The foundation of all statistics is the sample (the more random the sample and the bigger the sample the better more representatives) Leading questions in surveys: Do you agree with most Americans that its time we got a handle on decay in our inner cities? Do you think its important to support our troops by giving them the support they need?
Entrance survey: Pre-Test Exit Survey: Post-Test
Cognitive dissonance: when the mind has 2 conflicting ideas.
The first lesson statistics: Pay attention to sample size (The bigger the better)
The second lesson of statistics Pay attention to how your sample was gathered. (Bias)
Average havaria Mean A problem with mean: 12345678910

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes 4 guys 3, 1 guy 9: mean=4.2 skewed
#16 - Thought Experiments Right triangle Universal generalization law Counter examples
John Searles Chinese Room thought experiment: Similar to a computer program theres an input and output The person in the room puts a certain paper in the basket only follows instructions of which paper in Chinese to put in which basket.
Frank Jacksons Black and white Mary thought experiment: A girl named Mary is raised up in a completely black and white world but knows everything about color. One day she sees the color and knows how it actually looks like.
Conceptual heuristics that make us smart Conceptual biases that make us dumb Heuristics: a rule of thumb In order to calculate a 15% tip, double the sales tax
The wisdom of crowds The story has to do with the famous British scientist in both statistics and statistics biology: Sir Francis Galton. He was remembered negatively because of his belief of genetic superiority; positively for his studies in genetics. Attention bias, change blind, availability bias, anchoring bias
Logic problems Last class, uncreative thinking; this class: creative thinking Set expectation Science and Pseudo-Science The theory of Island and Biogeography Strong theory (physics) Relativity theory (physics) The theory of evolution
Pseudo-Science: Astrology Faith healing Psychic surgery Biorhythms Pyramid power Ancient astronauts Astral projection Various aspects of parapsychology UFOs
The problem of Demarcation: What is the line that separates Science and Pseudo-Science?
The problem of Demarcation: What distinguishes science from Pseudo-Science?
The old answer: The thing that distinguishes science is that it is inductive: it proceeds from experience to theoretical generalizations.
Necessary and Sufficient Conditions: X is a necessary condition for Y if: if something has to be X in order to be Y X is a sufficient condition for Y if: if something is X, thats good enough for it to qualify as Y
Example: American auto mobile. Condition: Chevy Is being a Chevy a necessary condition to being a car? Is it a sufficient condition of being American model? Is being an American car sufficient for being a Chevy: no because it isnt enough. Is being an American car necessary for being a Chevy: yes
When giving conditions for a term (like science), the best would be a set of conditions that are: Both necessary and sufficient
New answer to the problem of demarcation: (popper didnt agree, he thought it was too easy/cheap) What makes something scientific is that it is verifiable (-Vienna circle)
Poppers answer to the problem of demarcation poppers criterion of demarcation: What makes something scientific is that it is falsifiable
Theory Science Falsifiable (- falsify, doesnt falsify) Pseudo-Science UNfalsifiable
How would you disprove astrology? The twin problem
How do you make a theory unfalsifiable? Some of them just come that way. (Example of invisible ooglec sphere) 1) Add post hoc modifications Ptolemaic astronomy Epicycle upon epicycle Ptolemaic astronomy: Earth centered moon, sun and other planets revolve around the Earth. 2) Build on ambiguous phenomena Percival Lowells canals on Mars Nazi Science Nazi science 3) Build into the theory that only the truly initiated can see it work N-rays didnt seem to work anywhere besides France. (Professor Guanlow). It is built into the theory that only the true believers can see the phenomena.
Popper: to the extent you make your theory unfalsifiable, you make is unscientific at the same time. Hume on miracles shouldnt take miracles as believing in religion
Testimony
Contrary to the laws of nature
The Humean Principle of Evidence: The more astounding an event would be, The more astounding the evidence for it has to be (Example of 2 heads)
Carl Sagan: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes A caused B caused C
Morton Thiokol: Couldnt have Risk power Limitation Feynmans experiment: wrong All experimentation: establishes an if then
What was the first controlled experiment? 200BC Archimedes? (Water displacement) 50CE Hero of Alexandria? 800CE Jabir ibn Hayyan 1000 Alhazen
Controlled experiment X causes Y A double test: If X, then Y If not X, then not Y Francesco Redi 1671
Flies maggots If X, then Y No flies no maggots If not X, then not Y Controlled experiment
James Lind Preventing Scurvy 1747 A quart of cider everyday 25 drops of sulphuric acid three times a day on an empty stomach pint of seawater every day A small ump of a mixture of garlic, mustard, and horseradish
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes 2 spoonful of vinegar three times a day 2 oranges and 1 lemon a day Randomized controlled experiment
All experimentation: establishes an if then
What was the first controlled experiment? 200BC Archimedes? (Water displacement) 50CE Hero of Alexandria? 800CE Jabir ibn Hayyan 1000 Alhazen
Controlled experiment X causes Y A double test: If X, then Y If not X, then not Y Francesco Redi 1671
Flies maggots If X, then Y No flies no maggots If not X, then not Y Controlled experiment
James Lind Preventing Scurvy 1747 A quart of cider everyday 25 drops of sulphuric acid three times a day on an empty stomach pint of seawater every day A small ump of a mixture of garlic, mustard, and horseradish 2 spoonful of vinegar three times a day 2 oranges and 1 lemon a day
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Randomized controlled experiment At the end of the experiment, all still had scurvy except the oranges and lemon but still can be many explanations for that.
Francis Bacon Novum Organum 1620 Idols of the Theater Appeal to the authority instead of empirical test Idols of the Marketplace Vague words instead of empirical test Idols of the Cave Personal biases instead of empirical test Idols of the Tribe Unexamined perception instead of empirical test
Charles Sanders Peirce 1877 The Fixation of Belief Ways to fix belief: The method of tenacity The method of authority The method of a priori reasonableness Science correcting itself
John Stuart Mill, 1843 System of Logic Indications of a causal connection: The method of difference If the cases differ only in X, and one produces Y and the other doesnt, we have an indication that X causes Y The method of agreement If the cases agree only in X, and both produce Y, we have an indication that X causes Y The method of agreement and difference
Session #2 Thinking with your eyes Both: Y appears when you add X, and disappears when you take it away. R.A. Fisher The Lady Tasting Tea experiment
Gambling and Elementary probability Statistical significance: how probable H0 negative The basics: (fundamentals) How many ways can it come out How many ways count as heads = 1 How many ways it can come out 2 You draw one card, what are the chances that you draw: The ace of spades? A red card? A face card? In general, the probability of a category if even is: The number of possible outcomes in that category The total number of possible oiThe law of large numbers: In the long run, things will converge on the true probability: In general, the probability of a category if event is: The number of possible outcomes in that category The total number of possible outcomes Proviso: possible outcomes are equiprobable The principle of indifference: When youre ignorant, treat options as equipropotional -wrong The problem with the principle of indifference: it assigns probabilities depending on how you describe the options.
Equiprobable outcomes Flipping 2 coins in a row

Coin 1: T T H H Coin 2: T H T H At least 1 head: Exactly 2 heads: Your cat just had 4 kittens. Each has a 50% chance of being Male or Female. Which of these is the most likely? - % of each sex - 1 of one sex, 3 of the other - All of one sex M half M M M M M M F M M F M M M F F M F M M M F M F M F F M M F F F F M M M F M M F F M F M F M F F F F M M F F M F F F F M F F F F
The number of possible outcomes in a category Over The total number of (equally) possible outcomes
Simple principles of probability: If the probability of an event is P, the probability of its complement is 1-p. Probability of something happening: P Probability of it not happening: 1-P
For mutually exclusive events e1 and e2, the probability that e1 or e2 happens is: P(e1)+P(e2) Two events are independent if one doesnt influence the other.
For two independent events e1 and e2, the probability of both e1 and e2 happening is: P(e1)*P(e2) Probability of even # on both is 3/6 * 3/6 = 9/36 1/6 * 1/6
You draw 4 cards with replacement. What is the probability of drawing 4 red cards in a row? (26/52) to the 4th
The hard rules: always hold The probability of both e1 and e2 happening is: Prob(e1) + prob(e2) Prob(e2 and e2)
You pass the 50/50 mark at about 24 people.
What is the probability of drawing a jack or a heart?
The standard picture of risk and rationality: A risk is something that you should take if the odds are that you would win in the long run.
The standard picture of risk and rationality: A risk is something that you should take if the odds are that you would win in the long run.
The gamblers fallacy: treating independent events as if there were non-independent

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nerdy-notes.

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

The atoms of thought: concepts

No matter what he does, you do better if you defect.

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

Premises _____________ Conclusion

Bogus arguments and how to defuse them

Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), The Art of Controversy

Entrance survey: Pre-Test Exit Survey: Post-Test

Cognitive dissonance: when the mind has 2 conflicting ideas.

Average havaria Mean A problem with mean: 12345678910

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes 4 guys 3, 1 guy 9: mean=4.2 skewed

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

The problem of Demarcation: What distinguishes science from Pseudo-Science?

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

Theory Science Falsifiable (- falsify, doesnt falsify) Pseudo-Science UNfalsifiable

How would you disprove astrology? The twin problem

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

Contrary to the laws of nature

Carl Sagan: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes A caused B caused C

All experimentation: establishes an if then

Equiprobable outcomes Flipping 2 coins in a row

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

Session #2 Thinking with your eyes

You pass the 50/50 mark at about 24 people.

What is the probability of drawing a jack or a heart?

The gamblers fallacy: treating independent events as if there were non-independent

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