CNDI Impact Files Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.
Velto
World Go Boom Regents
World Go Boom
World Go Boom............................................................................................................................................................................1 Accidental Launch.........................................................................................................................................................................2 Acid Rain.......................................................................................................................................................................................3 Aids................................................................................................................................................................................................4 AirPower Hegemon ..................................................................................................................................................................! Asia "ta#ilit .................................................................................................................................................................................$ Biodi%ersit ...................................................................................................................................................................................& '(a) Good'...................................................................................................................................................................................* +,tinction......................................................................................................................................................................................(.2..............................................................................................................................................................................................1/ +0ualit ........................................................................................................................................................................................11 '(hina'........................................................................................................................................................................................12 1"23aiwan ..................................................................................................................................................................................13 1" (hina...................................................................................................................................................................................14 4ehumani5ation...........................................................................................................................................................................1! 4emocrac ...................................................................................................................................................................................1$ 4isease.........................................................................................................................................................................................1& +n%ironment................................................................................................................................................................................1* '+conom '..................................................................................................................................................................................16ead............................................................................................................................................................................................2/ Bearden........................................................................................................................................................................................21 +,tinction .utweighs..................................................................................................................................................................22 High 7ood Prices.........................................................................................................................................................................23 'Hegemon '................................................................................................................................................................................24 "hort 8ad.....................................................................................................................................................................................2! Long 8ad.....................................................................................................................................................................................2$ Peace............................................................................................................................................................................................2& 7erguson......................................................................................................................................................................................2* Human Rights..............................................................................................................................................................................29ran Proli:.....................................................................................................................................................................................3/ ;orth <orea.................................................................................................................................................................................31 ;uclear 3esting...........................................................................................................................................................................32 ;uclear War.................................................................................................................................................................................33 ;uclear War .utweighs..............................................................................................................................................................34 Po%ert .........................................................................................................................................................................................3! Proli:............................................................................................................................................................................................3$ Racism.........................................................................................................................................................................................3& Ra)e.............................................................................................................................................................................................3* ")ace............................................................................................................................................................................................33errorism.....................................................................................................................................................................................4/ 3o,ic Waste.................................................................................................................................................................................41 3rade Good .................................................................................................................................................................................42 3rade Bad....................................................................................................................................................................................43 Warming Bad...............................................................................................................................................................................44 Warming Bad (hal=o...............................................................................................................................................................4! Warming Good Health.............................................................................................................................................................4$
Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto
Accidental aunc!
An accidental launc! "ould lead to retaliator# stri$es and e%tinction "it!in !al& an !our '!e American (ros)ect* 2+2,+01 3he #itter dis)utes o%er national missile de:ense > ;64? ha%e o#scured a related #ut dramaticall more urgent issue o: national securit @ the 4A*// nuclear warheads 22 wea)ons with a com#ined destructi%e )ower nearl 1//A/// times greater than the atomic #om# that le%eled Hiroshima 22 currentl on Bhair2triggerB alert. Hair2trigger alert means this@ 3he missiles carr ing those warheads are armed and :ueled at all times. 3wo thousand or so o: these warheads are on the intercontinental #allistic missiles >9(B6s? targeted # Russia at the 1nited "tatesC 1A*// are on the 9(B6s targeted # the 1nited "tates at RussiaC and a))ro,imatel 1A/// are on the su#marine2#ased missiles targeted # the two nations at each other. 3hese missiles would launch on recei)t o: three com)uter2deli%ered messages. Launch crews 22 on dut e%er second o: e%er da 22 are under orders to send the messages on recei)t o: a single com)uter2deli%ered command. 9n no more than two minutes A i: all went according to )lanA Russia or the 1nited "tates could launch missiles at )redetermined targets@ Washington or ;ew Dor=C 6oscow or "t. Peters#urg. 3he earl 2warning s stems on which the launch crews rel would detect the other sideEs missiles within tens o: secondsA causing the intended 22 or accidental 22 enem to mount retaliator stri=es. BWithin a hal:2hourA there could #e a nuclear war that would e,tinguish all o: usA B e,)lains Bruce Blair. B9t would #eA #asicall A a
nuclear war # chec=listA # rote.B
Acid Rain
Acid rain destro#s t!e -ualit# o& li&e* disintegrating la$es* &orests* and buildings .imon 90* /C!er#l* "rites &or National Academ# o& .ciences* 01ne 2art!* 1ne 3uture4 1ur C!anging Global
2n5ironment6
+%en though the British scientist Angus "mith coined the term Facid rainG o%er a centur agoA onl in the last :ew decades ha%e scientists recogni5ed that wides)read acidit in )reci)itation
acid de)osition has damaged li:e in la=es and streams and corroded #uilding materials and accelerated the aging o: structures. 9n additionA it has #ecome a =e sus)ect in the declining health o: some s)ecies o: :orest trees in ;orth America and +uro)e. Acid de)osition results when )ollutantsA )articularl o,ides o: nitrogen and sul:urA are emitted :rom smo=estac=sA smeltersA and automo#ile e,hausts into the atmos)here.
causes damage :ar :rom its source. .%er large stretches o: the worldA 3hese o,ides are con%erted through a series o: chemical reactions with other su#stances in the atmos)hereA to acids that :all #ac= to the earthHs sur:ace dissol%ed in rainA snowA or :ogA or as gases dr u) )articles.
Aids
8nc!ec$ed 9i5+Aids Ris$s 2%tinction :uc!iri 00 /:ic!ael ;ibaara :uc!iri* ;en#an :inistr# o& 2ducation* 0Will Annan 3inall# (ut 1ut A&rica<s
3ires*= >A;AR'A (1.'* :arc! ,* 2000* N.6
3here is no dou#t that A94" is the most serious threat to human=ind A more serious than hurricanesA earth0ua=esA economic
crisesA ca)ital crashes or :loods. 9t has no cure et. We are watching a whole continent degenerate into ghostl s=eletons that :inall succum# to a most e,cruciatingA dehumani5ing death. Gore said that his new initiati%eA i: a))ro%ed # the 1.". (ongressA would #ring 1.". contri#utions to :ighting A94" and other in:ectious diseases to I 32! million. 4oes this mean that the 1; "ecurit (ouncil and the 1.". in )articular ha%e at last decided to remem#er A:ricaJ "uddenl A A94" was seen as threat to world )eaceA and Gore would as= the congress to set u) millions o: dollars on this case. 3he ho)e is that Gore does not intend to ma=e )olitical ca)ital out o: this # )ainting the usuall disagreea#le Re)u#lican2controlled (ongress as the #ad gu and ho)e the #uc= sto)s on the whole o: current and :uture 1.". go%ernmentsE conscience. 6a #e there is nothing le:t to sal%age in A:rica a:ter all and this tal= is a#out the A:rican2American %ote in ;o%em#erEs 1.". )residential %ote. Although the 1; and the "ecurit (ouncil cannot sol%e all A:rican )ro#lemsA the A94" challenge is a :undamental one in that it threatens to wi)e out man. 3he challenge is not one o: a single continent alone #ecause A:rica cannot #e 0uarantined. 3he trou#le is that A94" has no cure 22 and thus e%en the West has sta=es in the A94" challenge.
.nce su#2"aharan A:rica is wi)ed outA it shall not #e long #e:ore another continent is on the #rin= o: e,tinction. "ure as deathA A:ricaEs time has run outA signaling the #eginning o: the end o: the #lac= race and ma #e the human race
Air(o"er @ 9egemon#
Air )o"er is t!e single most im)ortant as)ect o& militar# )o"er* not!ing else e5en comes close. WARD2N 199A /Col. >o!n A Warden 111* 8.A3 /ret.6* )resident o& Venturist* Inc.* Air)o"er
Con&ronts an 8nstable World* 2d. 9allion* )) 279B2?06
A air )ower dominates war:are. 3hose who ha%e air )ower o%erwhelm those who donEtC those who donEt ha%e it s)end their energies tr ing to get itA thwart it or esca)e it. 9t is control o: the high ground writ large2#ut unli=e the old da s when high ground was largel an accident o: the situationA in the new worldA air )ower allows the user to mo%e the high ground to where%er it is needed. Air )owerA when measured in terms o: out)ut )er dollar or li:e in%estedA is the chea)estA most e::ecti%e method o: :ighting in human histor and the ad%ent o: )recision ma=es it e%en chea)er.
As the 2/th (entur draws to a close
Asia .tabilit#
Asian Instabilit# Ris$s A Big Nuclear War (aul ;2NN2DD* (ro&essor* 9istor#* Dale 8ni5ersit#* 021st Centur#EDialogues on t!e 3uture+GlobaliFation<s ."a# in 25olution &o .tates (ut in 3ocus*= '92 DAI D D1:I8RI* >anuar# 10* 2000* ). 1. <enned @ 9 do not thin= that we should discuss onl )ositi%e as)ects o: glo#ali5ation. 3oda A there is an arms race going among man Asian countries. 3here is also a nationalist )assion at wor= in the region. All this comes with incredi#le )ressure in the :orm o: en%ironmental )ro#lemsA )o)ulation growth and ethnic %iolence. 3his might well mean that some nuclear wea)ons could #e let o:: in AsiaA while a %er #ig war could occur in the area # 2/1/ or 2/1!.
Biodi5ersit#
Biodi5ersit# loss guarantees multi)le scenarios &or e%tincton* including nuclear "ar 'a$acs* 2n5ironmental 9umanities (ro& G C.8 :ontera# Ba#* 199, /Da5id* 0'!e Idea o& Biodi5ersit#4
(!iloso)!ies o& (aradise= )g. 200B2016
#iodi%ersit =ee)s the world running. 9t has %alue and o: itsel:A as well as :or us. Ra%enA +rwinA and Wilson o#lige us to thin= a#out the %alue o: #iodi%ersit :or our own li%es. 3he +hrlichsH ri%et2)o))er tro)e ma=es this same )ointC # eliminating ri%etsA we )la Russian roulette with glo#al ecolog and human :utures@ F9t is li=el that destruction o: the rich com)le, o: s)ecies in the Ama5on #asin could trigger ra)id changes in glo#al climate )atterns. Agriculture remains hea%il de)endent on sta#le climateA and human #eings remain hea%il de)endent on :ood. B the end o: the centur the e,tinction o: )erha)s a million s)ecies in the Ama5on #asin could ha%e entrained :amines in which a #illion human #eings )erished. And i: our s)ecies is %er unluc= A the :amines could lead to a thermonuclear warA which could e,tinguish ci%ili5ation.G 13 +lsewhere +hrlich uses di::erent )articulars with no less drama@ What then will ha))en i: the current decimation o: organic di%ersit continuesJ (ro) ields will #e more di::icult to maintain in the :ace o: climatic changeA soil erosionA loss o: de)enda#le water su))liesA decline o: )ollinatorsA and e%er more serious assaults # )ests. (on%ersion o: )roducti%e land to wasteland will accelerateC deserts will continue their seemingl ine,ora#le e,)ansion. Air )ollution will increaseA and local climates will #ecome harsher. Humanit will ha%e to :orgo man o: the direct economic #ene:its it might ha%e withdrawn :rom +arthEs wellstoc=ed genetic li#rar . 9t mightA :or e,am)leA miss out on a cure :or cancerC #ut that will ma=e little di::erence. As ecos stem ser%ices :alterA mortalit :rom res)irator and e)idemic diseaseA natural disastersA and es)eciall :amine will lower li:e e,)ectancies to the )oint where cancer >largel a disease o: the elderl ? will #e unim)ortant. Humanit will #ring u)on itsel: conse0uences de)ressingl similar to those e,)ected :rom a nuclear winter. Barring a nuclear con:lictA it a))ears that ci%ili5ation will disa))ear some time #e:ore the end o: the ne,t centur 2 not with a #ang #ut a whim)er.14
"o
HCa) GoodH
2%tinction
Colla)se o& ca)italism causes e%tinction Re5el* 1997
J>eanB3rancois* socio)olitical anal#st* Democracy Against Itself: The Future of the Democratic Impulse* trans. Roger ;a)lan* Ne" Dor$4 '!e 3ree (ress* 2CIB9++u"#oBaKlL
natural catacl sms in histor A e)idemicsA droughtsA earth0ua=esA and c clonesA and the ha%e =illed millionsA destro ed cities and cro)sA annihilated artistic and intellectual treasuresA de%astated the in:rastructures o: nations. Det these )lagues are nothing com)ared to those that ha%e #een caused # human action. 3he most destructi%e catastro)hes are man2madeA and a#o%e all statesman2made. 3he come :rom his a))etite :or con0uest and dominationA :rom the dead2end )olitical s stems he thin=s u)A his uncounta#le religious or ideological :anaticismsA andA es)eciall A his o#sessi%e need to re:orm societies instead o: letting them change at their own )ace. 4emocrac #loc=sA or at least slows downA this disastrous2and wic=ed2human )ro)ensit . 3wentieth2centur histor is clear on two )oints@ onl ca)italism engenders economic de%elo)mentC onl democrac can correct the worst )olitical a#uses and errors. 3his is wh humanit :aces a star= choice@ democratic ca)italism or e,tinction . 9 would re%ise 6ichael ;o%a=Es
3here ha%e #een term to read@ democratic and li#eral ca)italism. 7or ca)italism can #e illi#eral2)rotectionist and closel associated to the state. 9n this caseA it is not as much o: an o#stacle to de%elo)ment and
Li#eral democratic ca)italism is not the #est s stem@ it is the onl one Kthat wor=sL . 3he )arrots who =ee) telling us a#out its im)er:ections are rightA it is im)er:ect. But the onl )rohi#iti%e %ice :or a s stemA is not :or it to #e without %icesA #ut to #e without 0ualities. And what we =now a#out all the tested alternati%es to li#eral democratic ca)italism is that the are without 0ualities. 9t deser%es )lent o: criticismA #ut these should not lead to the tem)tation o: returning to
indi%idual li#ert as is socialismA #ut it hinders them and creates incenti%es :or the corru)tion o: )olitical leaders. collecti%ism or e%en milder :orms o: state control. .: course democratic ca)italism has its share o: sinsC #ut as Ro#ert ;o5ic= )ut itA socialism does seem to #e an e,cessi%el hea% )unishment :or them. And an wa it has #een tried alread .
C12
Colla)se o& ca)italism "ould !alt global C12 emissions (oliFeros.com* ,B1?B2;A
/(olitics in t!e Meroes* 0W!# ca)italism can<t sol5e global "arming=* !tt)4++)oliFeros.com+200A+0,+1?+"!#Bca)italismB cantBsol5eBglobalB"arming+* Damien R2N6
3here are three maMor #arriers against ca)italism achie%ing the goal o: reducing co2 emissions . (hanging :rom :ossil :uels to other energ sources will re0uire massi%e s)ending. "uch s)ending will not increase )ro:its and thus will #e anathema to most #usinesses. 3he will onl do it when :orced to # conditions or go%ernments. 3he (.2 reductions must #e glo#al. 9: the reductions arenHt glo#alA mandatedA and en:orcea#leA then little )rogress will #e made A as com)anies will Must mo%e to whate%er countr has the most la, rules. "hutting down a :ew coal2 #urning )lants in the 1" will ha%e little e::ect i: (hina #uild !// new ones. 3he change must #e all2encom)assing. 3his is the =ic=er. Huge restructuring will #e needed. +ntire industries will %anishA to #e re)laced # new ones. Dou thin= the coal industr will go awa 0uietl J ;ot a
chance. 3he )ro#lem is rooted in the %er nature o: ca)italist societ A which is made u) o: thousands o: cor)orationsA all com)eting :or in%estment and :or )ro:its. 3here is no Fsocial thousands o: se)arate interests that com)ete with each other. 3hatHs the real )ro#lem. 1nder the )redator nature o: ca)italismA coo)eration doesnHt e,istA and coo)eration on a glo#al scale is )recisel what is needed to sto) glo#al warming. interestG in ca)italism N onl
10
2-ualit#
Ca)italism Creates An Incenti5e 3or 2-ual 1))ortunit# Because 1& '!e Com)etiti5eness '!at It 2ntails e"is <92 J:artin W.* Assistant )ro&essor in t!e De)artment o& Geogra)!# and Regional .cience* George Was!ington 8ni5ersit#* Green Delusions: An Environmentalist Critique of Radical Environmentalism* Dur!am4 Du$e 8ni5ersit# (ress* 1992* 1A7B?L Business leaders ha%e o))osed a)artheid not #ecause o: their magnanimit A #ut rather #ecause discrimination is in man res)ects highl dis:unctional :or the econom . 6an "outh A:rican com)anies ha%e long su::ered :rom shortages o: s=illed la#orA et the ha%e #een )oliticall )re%ented :rom ta))ing a huge segment o: the )o)ulace :or such )ositions. As a resultA wages :or white wor=ers ha%e #een :ar greater than the mar=et would dictateA a situation hardl ad%antageous :or ca)ital. +%en more im)ortantl A the :act that so man )eo)le ha%e #een reduced to dire )o%ert # )olitical edict greatl reduces the internal "outh A:rican mar=etA which in turn undercuts the )otential )ro:ita#ilit o: consumergoods :irms. 3he underde%elo)ment o: the consumer econom A in turnA se%erel ham)ers the countr Es o%erall economic )er:ormance.
3he same underl ing )atterns ma #e seenA al#eit in wea=er :ormA in the 1nited "tates. 9t wasA o: courseA the ca)italistic Re)u#lican Part that dismantled sla%er until relati%el recent times
ca)italism thri%es on e0ualit o: o))ortunit . +::icient cor)orations welcome talented indi%iduals :rom all social ran=s into their middle and u))er echelons2so long as the are ade)t at ma=ing )ro:its. 3hus the editor o: 7ortune maga5ine tells us that B.ne o: AmericaEs great com)etiti%e wea)ons is that we are :ar ahead o: the Oa)anese and. most other :oreign com)etitors in at last #eginning to admit women to )ositions o: real )owerB >Oul 3/A 1--/A ). 4?. .: courseA indi%idual ca)italists can #e as #igoted as an one elseA and man are #lind to the general re0uirements o: the s stem as a whole. And so tooA e0ualit o:
the 4emocratic Part o: wor=ers and :armers :ormed the #ulwar= o: discrimination. As a s stemA o))ortunit must ne%er #e con:used with social e0uit A as those indi%iduals lac=ing the demanded s=ills and moti%ation will alwa s #e )oorl rewarded # the rational cor)oration. Although A in the endA )recludes economic e0ualit A it A as we ha%e alread noted in the case o: "outh A:rica. As man mar,ist scholars now recogni5eA low wages across the #oard translate into minimal )urchasing )owerA which is hardl ad%antageous :or a ca)italist
ca)italism
does su::er i: wage di::erentials grow too great
A in the %irtuous ca)italistic s)iral o: B7ordismB >"cott and "tor)er 1-*$?A )roducti%it gains ha%e #een )artiall shared with wor=ers in the :orm o: higher wagesA the aggregate result #eing a )ros)erous wor=ing class and a health econom .
machine o:ten des)erate to :ind mar=ets :or its a#undant goods. 3hus
11
HC!inaH
12
8.B'ai"an
Nuclear War C!icago 'ribune <9, J0C!ina (re)ares Ne" .!o" o& .trengt!*= 8li .c!metFer* 3eb. ,++u"#oB cro"eL the Peo)les Li#eration Arm ha%e )ledged to use :orce i: to regain the island on which the ;ationalists settled a:ter losing the ci%il war to 6ao 3se2tung in 1-4-. A PLA anal sis22lea=ed to Western media22suggests that in the e%ent o: war with 3aiwan A the 1.". would not inter%ene #ecause 1.". commercial interests in
While a )eace:ul solution remains a )riorit A #oth the )olit#uro and
necessar
(hina
would
#e
damaged
and
an
inter%ention
could
lead
to
new
"ino2Russian
alliance.
i: the 1.". inter%enedA Washington could onl retard 22#ut not re%erse22 the de:eat o: 3aiwanA and a "ino21.". con:lict might lead to a glo#al nuclear holocaust.
3he documentA circulated among o::icersA concludes that e%en
17
8. @C!ina
Con&lict bet"een t!e 8... and C!ina escalates and causes nuclear "ar >o!nson* >ournalist* CB1?B2;1 /C!almers* 0'ime to Bring t!e 'roo)s 9ome*= '!e Nation* Volume 2A2* Number 196 (hina is another matter. ;o sane :igure in the Pentagon wants a war with (hina A and all serious 1" militarists =now that (hinaEs minuscule nuclear
ca)acit is not o::ensi%e #ut a deterrent against the o%erwhelming 1" )ower arra ed against it >twent archaic (hinese warheads %ersus more than &A/// 1" warheads?. 3aiwanA whose status constitutes the still incom)lete last act o: the (hinese ci%il warA remains the most dangerous )lace on earth. 6uch as the 1-14 assassination o: the Austrian crown )rince in "araMe%o led to a
a misste) in 3aiwan # an side could #ring the 1nited "tates and (hina into a con:lict that neither wants. "uch a war would #an=ru)t the 1nited "tatesA dee)l di%ide Oa)an and )ro#a#l end in a (hinese %ictor A gi%en that (hina is the worldEs most )o)ulous countr and would #e de:ending itsel: against a :oreign aggressor. 6ore seriousl A it could easil escalate into a nuclear holocaust. Howe%erA gi%en the nationalistic challenge to (hinaEs so%ereignt o: an 3aiwanese attem)t to declare its inde)endence :ormall A :orward2de)lo ed 1"
war that no one wantedA :orces on (hinaEs #orders ha%e %irtuall no deterrent e::ect.
1?
De!umaniFation
oss o& ones 5alue to li&e is t!e greatest im)act
MI::2R:AN IN 199? K6ichaelC Pro:essor o: Philoso)h
Heidegger asserted that at 3ulane 1ni%ersit C (ontestin0 +arthEs 7utureC Ber=ele @ 1ni%ersit o: (ali:ornia PressC 1--4C ). 11-212/L
human sel:2assertionA com#ined with the ecli)se o: #eingA threatens the relation #etween #eing and human 4asein. Loss o: this relation would #e e%en more dangerous than a nuclear war that might B#ring a#out the com)lete annihilation o: humanit and the destruction o: the earth . 1114 3his contro%ersial claim is com)ara#le to the (hristian teaching that it is #etter to :or:eit the world than to lose oneEs soul # losing oneEs relation to God. Heidegger a))arentl thought
along these lines@ it is )ossi#le that a:ter a nuclear warA li:e might once again emergeA #ut it is :ar less li=el that there will e%er again occur an ontological clearing through which such li:e
since modernit Es one dimensional disclosure o: entities %irtuall denies them an B#eingB at allA the loss o: humanit Es o)enness :or #eing is alread occurring.AA 6odernit Es #ac=ground mood is horror in the :ace o: nihilismA which is consistent with the aim o: )ro%iding material Bha))inessB :or e%er one # reducing nature to )ure energ .s$ 3he unleashing o: %ast 0uantities o: energ in nuclear war would #e e0ui%alent to modernit Es slow 2 motion destruction o: nature@ un#ounded destruction would e0ual limitless consum)tion. 9: humanit a%oided nuclear war onl to sur%i%e as contented cle%er animals A Heidegger #elie%ed we would e,ist in a state o: ontological damnation@ hell on earthA mas0uerading as material )aradise . 4ee)
could mani:est itsel:. 7urtherA ecologists might agree that a world o: material human com:ort )urchased at the )rice o: e%er thing wild would not #e a world worth li%ing inA :or in =illing wild natureA )eo)le would #e as good as dead. But most o: them could not agree that the loss o: humanit Es relation to #eing would #e worse than nuclear omnicideA :or it is wrong to su))ose that the li%es o: millions o: e,tinct and un=nown s)ecies are somehow lessened #ecause the were ne%er BdisclosedB # humanit
1C
Democrac#
Democrac# .ol5es '!e 25il 1& DemocideE:ass Deat! 1t!er"ise Rummel 9,* /Rudol)! >. Rummel* (ro&essor 2meritus o& (olitical .cience* 8ni5ersit# o& 9a"aii* 0C!a)ter I4 An
2nlig!tened 3oreign (olic#*= '92 :IRAC 2 '9A' I. 3R22D1:4 '92 .1 8'I1N '1 WAR* VI1 2NC2* G2N1CID2* AND (1V2R'D* :artin :onogra)! .eries No. 1.* :artin Institute &or (eace .tudies and Con&lict Resolution* 8ni5ersit# o& Ida!o* 199,. A5ailable &rom t!e World Wide Web at4 !tt)4++""".!a"aii.edu+)o"er$ills+:'3.C9A(I.9':* accessed ?+2I+0C.6
there is mass democideA the most destructi%e o: human li%es than an other :orm o: %iolence. +,ce)t in the case o: the ;a5i Holocaust o: +uro)ean OewsA :ew )eo)le =now how murderous the dictators o: this world ha%e #een and could #e. Pirtuall un=nown is the
3hen :act that the num#er o: non2Oewish PolesA RussiansA 1=rainiansA Dugosla%sA 7renchmenA GermansA and onA murdered # Hitler sur)asses # two or three times the Oews he =illed. 3hen there are the shoc=ing tens o: millions murdered # "talin and 6aoA and the other millions wi)ed out # Pol PotA Ho (hi 6inhA <im 9l2sungA and their =ind. Oust omitting :oreignersA who are most o:ten murdered during a warA such thugs ha%e murdered a#out 123A///A/// o: their own )eo)le :rom 1-// to 1-*&.
Adding :oreigners the ha%e =illed
raises the toll to an incredi#le near 1&/A///A///. Adding to this un#elie%a#le toll since 1-*& is the million )eo)le the Hutu rulers o: Rwanda
ma ha%e slaughtered in :our months >(ha)ter $. +%en nowA these mass murders still go on in BurmaA "udanA A:ghanistanA ;orth <oreaA RwandaA BurundiA 8aireA "ierra LeoneA Li#eriaA and the (ongoA Must to mention the most glaring e,am)les. "er# democide 9t should #e clearA thenA wh 9 re:er to the rulers o: these murderous regimes as thugs. 9 am not a di)lomat nor go%ernment o::icial and do not ha%e to worr a#out the delicate sensiti%ities o: these rulers. 9 can s)ea= truth to )owerA and call thugs the thugs the are. As should #e clear :rom this #oo= and we# siteA the o:ten murder )eo)le # care:ull thought out )lansA the set u) a #ureaucrac to do soA the train )eo)le :or this )ur)oseA and then the order the =illing. "ometimes the murder )eo)le #ecause o: their raceA ethnicit A or religionC their )arents or other relati%eEs )olitical acti%itiesA or #elie:sA or s)eechC or their lac= o: )ro)er enthusiasm :or their glorious rulers. "ometimes the esta#lished a murder 0uota to :illA or =ill )eo)le randoml to set an e,am)le. While we can a))ro,imate how man these thugs ha%e =illedA we cannot e%en guess at the heart#rea= and miser these deaths ha%e caused their lo%ed onesA and how man o: these grie%ing sur%i%ors ha%e died o: a #ro=en heart or committed suicide. 6oreo%erA the term murder hardl carries the :ull weight o: the )ain and miser o: the %ictims. "ome luc= ones died 0uic=l with a shot to the #ac= o: the headA or had their head deca)itated. 6ost died 0uite wretchedl A in )ain :rom torture or #eatingsC # drowningA #eing #uried or #urned ali%eC or in agon :rom wounds. 6an died :rom intentionall administered star%ationA thirstA e,)osureA or disease. "ome died horri#l as the result o: re)eated human medical e,)eriments. We ha%e no )ainQmiser inde, to measure all this e,ce)t :or the incredi#le )ile o: cor)ses these thugs ha%e created in nearl one centur . We must assume that a )enum#ra o: )ain and miser A o: lo%e and ho)e s0uashedA and a :uture stolen surrounds each o: these millions o: cor)ses. (astration
What is true a#out :reedom and internal %iolence is also so :or this mass democide. As clear :rom 3a#le *.1A the more :reedom a )eo)le ha%eA the less li=el their rulers are to murder them . 3he more )ower the thugs ha%eA the more li=el the will murder their )eo)le. (ould there #e a greater moral good than to end or minimi5e such mass murderJ 3his is what :reedom does and :or this it isA em)haticall A a moral good. Democratic Consolidation (re5ents War And 2%tinction Diamond 9C* 0(romoting Democrac# in t!e 1990<s*= 1ctober 199C. A5ailable &rom t!e World Wide Web at4 !tt)4++""".carnegie.org+sub+)ubs+deadl#+dia9CO01.!tml* accessed 2+20+0?.
.3H+R 3HR+A3" 3his hardl e,hausts the lists o: threats to our securit and well2#eing in the coming ears and decades. 9n the :ormer Dugosla%ia nationalist aggression tears at the sta#ilit o: +uro)e and could easil s)read. 3he :low o: illegal drugs intensi:ies through increasingl )ower:ul international crime s ndicates that ha%e made common cause with authoritarian
;uclearA chemicalA and #iological wea)ons continue to )roli:erate. 3he %er source o: li:e on +arthA the glo#al ecos stemA a))ears increasingl endangered. 6ost o: these new and uncon%entional threats to securit are associated with or aggra%ated # the wea=ness or a#sence o: democrac A with its )ro%isions :or legalit A accounta#ilit A )o)ular so%ereignt A and o)enness. L+"".;" .7 3H+ 3W+;39+3H (+;31RD 3he e,)erience o: this centur o::ers im)ortant lessons . (ountries that go%ern themsel%es in a trul democratic :ashion do not go to war with one another . 3he do not aggress against their neigh#ors to aggrandi5e themsel%es or glori: their leaders. 4emocratic go%ernments do not ethnicall BcleanseB their own )o)ulationsA and the are much less li=el to :ace ethnic insurgenc . 4emocracies do not s)onsor terrorism against one another . 3he do not #uild wea)ons o: mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. 4emocratic countries :orm more relia#leA o)enA and enduring trading )artnershi)s. 9n the long run the o::er #etter and more sta#le climates :or in%estment. 3he are more en%ironmentall res)onsi#le #ecause the must answer to their own citi5ens A who organi5e to )rotest the destruction o: their en%ironments. 3he are #etter #ets to honor
regimes and ha%e utterl corru)ted the institutions o: tenuousA democratic ones. international treaties since the %alue legal o#ligations and #ecause their o)enness ma=es it much more di::icult to #reach agreements in secret. Precisel #ecauseA within their own #ordersA the res)ect com)etitionA ci%il li#ertiesA )ro)ert rightsA and the rule o: lawA democracies are the onl relia#le :oundation on which a new world order o: international securit and )ros)erit can #e #uilt.
1,
Disease
Disease .)read Ris$s 2%tinction .teinbruner 9I />o!n D.* .enior 3ello"* Broo$ings Institution* 0Biological Wea)ons4 A (lague 8)on All 9ouses*=
31R2IGN (1 ICD n. 109* Winter 199A+199I* )). ICB9,* A.(.6
9t is a considera#le com:ort and undou#tedl a =e to our sur%i%al thatA so :arA the main lines o: de:ense against this threat ha%e not de)ended on e,)licit )olicies or organi5ed e::orts. 9n the long course o: e%olutionA the human #od has de%elo)ed )h sical #arriers and a #iochemical immune s stem whose so)histication and e::ecti%eness e,ceed an thing we could design or as et e%en :ull understand. But e%olution is a sword that cuts #oth wa s@ ;ew diseases emergeA while old diseases mutate and ada)t. 3hroughout histor A there ha%e #een e)idemics during which human immunit has #ro=en down on an e)ic scale. An in:ectious agent #elie%ed to ha%e #een the )lague #acterium =illed an estimated 2/ million )eo)le o%er a :our2 ear )eriod in the :ourteenth centur A including nearl one20uarter o: Western +uro)eEs )o)ulation at the time. "ince its recogni5ed a))earance in 1-*1A some 2/ %ariations o: the H9P %irus ha%e in:ected an estimated 2-.4 million worldwideA with 1.! million )eo)le currentl d ing o: A94" each ear. 6alariaA tu#erculosisA and cholera 2 once thought to #e under control 2 are now ma=ing a
changing conditions ha%e enhanced the )otential :or wides)read contagion. 3he ra)id growth rate o: the total world )o)ulationA the un)recedented :reedom o: mo%ement across international #ordersA and scienti:ic ad%ances that e,)and the ca)a#ilit :or the deli#erate mani)ulation o: )athogens are all cause :or worr that the )ro#lem might #e greater in the :uture than it has e%er #een in the )ast. 3he threat o: in:ectious )athogens is not Must an issue o: )u#lic healthA #ut a :undamental securit )ro#lem :or the s)ecies as a whole.
come#ac=. As we enter the twent 2:irst centur A
1A
2n5ironment
2n5ironmental Deca# Ris$s Colla)se 1& Ci5iliFation Dernbac! 9I />o!n C. Associate (ro&essor* a"* Widener 8ni5ersit#* 0.ustainable De5elo)ment as a 3rame"or$
&or National Go5ernance*= CA.2 W2.'2RN R2.2RV2 8NIV2R.I'D AW R2VI2W 5. ?9* 3all 199I* ). 1,.6
3he glo#al scale and se%erit o: en%ironmental degradation and )o%ert are un)recedented in human histor . 6aMor ad%erse conse0uences are not ine%ita#leA #ut the are li=el i: these )ro#lems are not addressed. 6an ci%ili5ations colla)sed or were se%erel wea=ened #ecause the e,hausted or degraded the natural resource #ase on which the de)ended . n&$ 9n additionA su#stantial economic and social ine0ualities ha%e caused or contri#uted to man
wars and re%olutions. n&& 3hese )ro#lems are intensi:ied # the s)eed at which the ha%e occurred and are worseningA ma=ing it di::icult :or natural s stems to ada)t. 3he com)le,it o: natural and human s stems also means that the e::ects o: these )ro#lems are di::icult to antici)ate. 3he )otential im)act o: glo#al warming on the transmission o: tro)ical diseases in a time o: su#stantial international tra%el and commerce is #ut one e,am)le.
1I
H2conom#H
19
:ead
'!e Im)act Is Nuclear War :ead <92 JWalter Russel* :ember o& '92 Board o& Ad5isors* 0De)ending on t!e ;indness o& .trangers*= Ne"
(ers)ecti5es Nuarterl#* .ummer 5. 9* n. 7L
3here is something #reathta=ingl casual in the wa in which the American elite res)onds to its :ailures. 3he sa%ings and loan de#acleA the disintegration o: our inner citiesA the #udget de:icit@ .ur )u#lic and )ri%ate elites donHt care a#out them. Perha)s #ecause the grew u) in the ears when the 1.". :aced no real economic challenges and =new no real limitsA the donHt understand that :ailure has a )rice. 9: soA this new :ailrue the :ailure to de%elo) an international s stem to hedge against the )ossi#ilit o: worldwide de)ression will o)en their e es to their :oll . Hundreds o: millions #illions o: )eo)le around the world ha%e )inned their ho)es on the international mar=et econom . 3he and their leaders ha%e em#raced mar=et )rinci)les2 and drawn
What i: the glo#al econom stagnates2 or e%en shrin=sJ 9n that caseA we will :ace a new )eriod o: international con:lict@ "outh against ;orthA rich against )oorA RussiaA (hinaA 9ndia these countries with their #illions o: )eo)le and their nuclear wea)ons will )ose a much greater danger to the world order than German and Oa)an did in the R3/s
closer to the West #ecause the #elie%e that our s stem can wor= :or them. But what i: it canHtJ
20
Bearden
2conomic Colla)se Would 2scalate 'o 3ullB.cale Con&lict And Ra)id 2%tinction Bearden 2; / t. Col in 8. Arm#6 J'!omas* 0'!e 8nnecessar# 2nerg# Crisis=* 3ree Re)ublic* >une 2?* ).
online ++"#oBtKcL
Prior to the :inal economic colla)seA the stress on nations will ha%e increased the intensit and num#er o: their con:lictsA to the )oint where the arsenals o : wea)ons o: mass destruction >W64? now )ossessed # some 2! nationsA are almost certain to #e released . As an e,am)leA su))ose a star%ing ;orth
Histor #ears out that des)erate nations ta=e des)erate actions . <orea launches nuclear wea)ons u)on Oa)an and "outh <oreaA including 1.". :orces thereA in a s)asmodic suicidal res)onse. .r su))ose a des)erate (hina2whose long2range nuclear missiles
the mutual treaties in%ol%ed in such scenarios will 0uic=l draw other nations into the con:lictA escalating it signi:icantl . "trategic nuclear studies ha%e shown :or decades
>some? can reach the 1nited "tates2attac=s 3aiwan. 9n addition to immediate res)onses A thatA under such e,treme stress conditionsA once a :ew nu=es are launchedA ad%ersaries and )otential ad%ersaries are then com)elled to launch on )erce)tion o: )re)arations # oneEs ad%ersar . 3he real legac o: the 6A4 conce)t is this side o: the 6A4 coin that is almost ne%er discussed. Without e::ecti%e de:enseA the onl chance a nation has to sur%i%e at all is to launch
ra)id escalation to :ull W64 e,change occurs. 3oda A a great )ercent o: the W64 arsenals that will #e unleashedA are alread on site within the 1nited "tates itsel:. 3he resulting great Armageddon will destro ci%ili5ation as we =now itA and )erha)s most o: the #ios)hereA at least :or man decades.
immediate :ull2#ore )re2em)ti%e stri=es and tr to ta=e out its )ercei%ed :oes as ra)idl and massi%el as )ossi#le. As the studies showedA
21
2%tinction 1ut"eig!s
2%tinction Is An Incom)arable 25ilENot!ing Can 1ut"eig! It Rolston 9I* (ro&essor* (!iloso)!#* Colorado .tate 8ni5ersit#* 2n5ironmental (!iloso)!#* 199I* ). 17,. F+%er e,tinction is an incremental deca in this sto))ing o: li:eA no small thing. +%er e,tinction is a =ind o: su)er=illing. 9t =ills :orms >s)ecies? #e ond indi%iduals. 9t =ills Fessences G the FsoulG as well as the F#od G. 9t =ills collecti%el A not Must distri#uti%el . 9t =ills #irth as well as death. A:terward nothing o: that =ind either li%es or dies . A shutdown o: the li:e stream is the most destructi%e e%ent )ossi#le. ;e%er #e:ore has this le%el o: 0uestion su)er=illing # a su)er=iller 22 #een deli#eratel :aced. What is ethicall callous is the maelstrom o: =illing insensiti%it to :orms o: li:e
and the sources o: )roducing them. What is re0uired is )rinci)led res)onsi#ilit to the #ios)heric earth. "e%eral #illions ears worth o: creati%e toilA se%eral million s)ecies o: teeming li:eA ha%e #een handed o%er to the care o: this late2coming s)ecies in which mind has :lowered and morals ha%e emerged. Li:e on earth is a man slendored thing@ e,tinction dims its luster. 9:A in this world o: uncertain moral con%ictionsA it ma=es an sense to claim that one ought not =ill indi%idualsA without Musti:icationA it ma=es more sense to claim that one ought not to su)er=ill the s)eciesA without su)erMusti:ication. 3hat mo%es :rom what is to what ought to #eA and the :allac is not committed # naturalists who so argue #ut # humanists who cannot draw these conclusions.G
22
9ig! 3ood (rices

'!at .a5es Billions 'A:(A 'RIB8N2 9,* sta&&* >anuar# 20* 199,* N.
.n a glo#al scaleA 2 measured # stoc=)iles o: grain 2 . 9n 1--!A world )roduction :ailed to meet demand :or the third consecuti%e earA said Per Pinstru)2AndersenA director o: the 9nternational 7ood Polic Research 9nstitute in WashingtonA 4.(. As a resultA grain stoc=)iles :ell :rom an a%erage o: 1& )ercent o: annual consum)tion in 1--421--! to 13 )ercent at the end o: the 1--!21--$ seasonA he said. 3hatEs trou#lingA Pinstru)2Andersen notedA since 13 )ercent is well #elow the 1& )ercent the 1nited
:ood su))lies
are not a#undant
+%en i: the are merel #li)sA higher international )rices can hurt )oor countries that im)ort a signi:icant )ortion o: their :oodAB he said. BRising )rices can also 0uic=l )ut :ood out o: reach o: the 1.1 #illion )eo)le in the de%elo)ing world who li%e on a dollar a da or less.B He also said man )eo)le in low2income countries alread s)end more than hal: o: their
;ations considers essential to )ro%ide a margin o: sa:et in world :ood securit . 4uring the :ood crisis o: the earl 1-&/sA world grain stoc=s were at 1! )ercent. B income on :ood.
27
H9egemon#H
2?
.!ort Mad
Nuclear War ;!alilFad 9C* /Malma# ;!alilFad* RAND anal#st* 0 osing t!e :oment*= WA.9ING'1N N8AR'2R D* .)ring
199C* N.6
1nder the third o)tionA the 1nited "tates would see= to retain glo#al leadershi) and to )reclude the rise o: a glo#al ri%al or a return to multi)olarit :or the inde:inite :uture. .n #alanceA this is
a world in which the 1nited "tates e,ercises leadershi) would ha%e tremendous ad%antages. 7irstA the glo#al en%ironment would #e more o)en and more rece)ti%e to American %alues 22 democrac A :ree mar=etsA and the rule o: law. "econdA such a world would ha%e a #etter chance o: dealing coo)erati%el with the worldEs maMor )ro#lemsA such as nuclear )roli:erationA threats o: regional hegemon # renegade statesA and low2le%el con:licts. 7inall A 1.". leadershi) would hel) )reclude the rise o: another hostile glo#al ri%alA ena#ling the 1nited "tates and the world to a%oid another glo#al cold or hot war and all the attendant dangersA including a glo#al nuclear e,change. 1.". leadershi) would there:ore #e more conduci%e to glo#al sta#ilit than a #i)olar or a multi)olar #alance o: )ower s stem.
the #est long2term guiding )rinci)le and %ision. "uch a %ision is desira#le not as an end in itsel:A #ut #ecause
2C
ong Mad
Wit!dra"l s)ar$s global )o"er "ars in 2uro)e* Asia* and t!e :iddle 2ast* economic colla)se* )roli&eration* and nuclear "ar ;!alilFad* (olic# Anal#st at t!e Rand Cor)oration* 9C /Malma#* 0 osing t!e :omentP4 '!e 8nited .tates and t!e
World a&ter t!e Cold War*= '!e Was!ington Nuarterl#* .)ring6
What might ha))en to the world coo)erating with each otherA the o: +ast2(entral +uro)e and the 6iddle +ast. 9n Western and (entral +uro)eA German 22 es)eciall since uni:ication 22 would #e the natural leading )ower. +ither in coo)eration or com)etition with RussiaA German might see= in:luence o%er the territories located #etween them. German e::orts are li=el to #e aimed at :illing the %acuumA sta#ili5ing the regionA and )recluding its domination # ri%al )owers. Britain and 7rance :ear such a de%elo)ment. Gi%en the strength o: democrac in German and its )reoccu)ation with a#sor#ing the :ormer +ast German A +uro)ean concerns a#out German a))ear e,aggerated. But it would #e a mista=e to assume that 1.". withdrawal could notA in the long runA result in the renationali5ation o: German Es securit )olic . 3he same is also true o: Oa)an. Gi%en a 1.". withdrawal :rom the worldA loo= a:ter its own securit and ca)a#ilities. (hinaA <oreaA and the nations o: "outheast Asia alread :ear Oa)anese hegemon . Without 1.". )rotectionA Oa)an is li=el to increase its militar ca)a#ilit dramaticall 22 to #alance the
i: the 1nited "tates turned inwardJ Without the 1nited "tates and the ;orth Atlantic 3reat .rgani5ation >;A3.?A rather than West +uro)ean nations might com)ete with each other :or domination Oa)an would ha%e to #uild u) its militar
3his could result in arms racesA including the )ossi#le ac0uisition # Oa)an o: nuclear wea)ons. Gi%en Oa)anese technological )rowessA to sa nothing o: the )lutonium stoc=)ile Oa)an has ac0uired in the de%elo)ment o: its nuclear )ower industr A it could o#%iousl #ecome a nuclear wea)on state relati%el 0uic=l A i: it should so decide. 9t could also #uild long2range missiles and carrier tas= :orces. With the shi:ting #alance o: )ower among Oa)anA (hinaA RussiaA and )otential new regional )owers such as 9ndiaA 9ndonesiaA and a united <orea could come signi:icant ris=s o: )re%enti%e or )roeru)ti%e war. "imilarl A +uro)ean com)etition :or regional dominance could lead to maMor wars in +uro)e or +ast Asia. 9: the 1nited "tates sta ed out o: such a war 22 an unli=el )ros)ect 22 +uro)e or +ast Asia could #ecome dominated # a hostile )ower. "uch a de%elo)ment would threaten 1.". interests. A )ower that achie%ed such dominance would see= to e,clude the 1nited "tates :rom the area and threaten its interests2economic and )olitical 22 in the region. BesidesA with the domination o: +uro)e or +ast AsiaA such a )ower might see= glo#al hegemon and the 1nited "tates would :ace another glo#al (old War and the ris= o: a world war e%en more catastro)hic than the last. 9n the Persian Gul:A 1.". withdrawal is li=el to lead to an intensi:ied struggle :or regional domination. 9ran and 9ra0 ha%eA in the )astA #oth sought regional hegemon . Without 1.". )rotectionA the wea= oil2rich states o: the Gul: (oo)eration (ouncil >G((? would #e unli=el to retain their inde)endence. 3o )reclude this de%elo)mentA the "audis might see= to ac0uireA )erha)s # )urchaseA their own nuclear wea)ons. 9: either 9ra0 or 9ran controlled the region that dominates the world su))l o: oilA it could gain a signi:icant ca)a#ilit to damage the 1.". and world
growing (hinese :orces and still2signi:icant Russian :orces. economies. An countr that gained hegemon would ha%e %ast economic resources at its dis)osal that could #e used to #uild militar ca)a#ilit as well as gain le%erage o%er the 1nited "tates and other oilim)orting nations. Hegemon o%er the Persian Gul: # either 9ran or 9ra0 would #ring the rest o: the Ara# 6iddle +ast under its in:luence and domination #ecause o: the
the )eace )rocess would #e :undamentall underminedA increasing the ris= o: war #etween the Ara#s and the 9sraelis. 3he e,tension o: insta#ilit A con:lictA and hostile hegemon in +ast AsiaA +uro)eA and the Persian Gul: would harm the econom o: the 1nited "tates e%en in the unli=el e%ent that it was
shi:t in the #alance o: )ower. 9sraeli securit )ro#lems would multi)l and a#le to a%oid in%ol%ement in maMor wars and con:licts. Higher oil )rices would reduce the 1.". standard o: li%ing. 3urmoil in Asia and +uro)e would :orce maMor economic readMustment in the 1nited "tatesA )erha)s reducing 1.". e,)orts and im)orts and Meo)ardi5ing 1.". in%estments in these regions. Gi%en that total im)orts and e,)orts are e0ual to a 0uarter o: 1.". gross domestic )roductA the cost o: necessar adMustments might #e high. 3he higher le%el o: in the world also the li=elihood o: the o: wea)ons o: mass destruction >W64? and means :or their deli%er . Alread se%eral rogue states such as ;orth <orea and 9ran are see=ing nuclear wea)ons and long2range missiles. 3hat
turmoil
would
increase
)roli:eration
3he result would #e a much more dangerous world in which man states )ossessed W64 ca)a#ilitiesC the li=elihood o: their actual use would increase accordingl . 9: this
danger would onl increase i: the 1nited "tates withdrew :rom the world. ha))enedA the securit o: e%er nation in the worldA including the 1nited "tatesA would #e harmed.
2,
(eace
9egemon# is critical to "orld )eace and stabilit# Wiarda* (ro&essor at t!e National War College* 9, /9o"ard* ! Foreign and !trategic "olicy in the "ost#Cold $ar
Era* ). 22A6
3he )receding cha)ters ha%e highlighted not onl the di%erse geo)olitical regions o: the world #ut also the %ariedA o:ten %ital. 1" interests and reasons :or remaining in%ol%ed in all o: them.
go%ernments and )eo)les loo= to the 1nited "tates to leadA to ser%e as an honest #ro=erA as not onl the worldHs strongest )ower #ut also its most trustworth . .ne cannot concei%e o: a uni:ied +uro)ean de:ense )olic without the 1 nited "tates@ the Russian aid )rogram would surel colla)se without the 1nited "tates@ and in Asia the 1nited "tates is seen as the #alancing :orce =ee)ing (hinaA Oa)anA and the two <oreas awa A )otentiall A :rom each othersH throats. 3he )eace )rocess in the 6iddle +ast has no chances o: success without the 1nited "tates@ and humanitarian assistance in A:rica would surel dr u) i: the 1nited "tates were not in%ol%ed and so on. 9t is clear that #oth 1" interests and the worldHs interests demand that we remain a maMor )la er in that world. But we are in a new eraA which demands that all those interests #e rede:inedA sorted outA and re:ormulated. Both we and the rest o: the world need to
What ma )erha)s #e most stri=ing to the reader is not Must the amount and %ariet o: 1" interests #ut how in each o: these areas recogni5e that :act. 1" :oreign )olic and its glo#al interests o#%iousl cannot #e a#andoned #ut the do need to #e reconstructed.
2A
3erguson
Colla)se causes nuclear "ar* economic colla)se* and e)idemics. 3erguson* 9istor# and 3inance (ro&essor at Ne" Dor$ 8ni5ersit#* 2;? /Niall* 0A World Wit!out (o"er*= 3oreign
(olic#* >ul# + August6
one can imagine the worldEs esta#lished )owers22the 1nited "tatesA +uro)eA and (hina22retreating into their own regional s)heres o: in:luence. But
(ould an a)olar world toda )roduce an era reminiscent o: the age o: Al:redJ 9t couldA though with some im)ortant and trou#ling di::erences. (ertainl A what o: the growing )retensions to autonom o: the su)ranational #odies created under 1.". leadershi) a:ter the "econd World WarJ 3he 1nited ;ationsA the 9nternational 6onetar 7undA the World Ban=A and the World 3rade .rgani5ation >:ormerl the General Agreement on 3ari::s and 3rade? each considers itsel: in some wa re)resentati%e o: the Binternational communit .B "urel their as)irations to glo#al go%ernance are :undamentall di::erent :rom the s)irit o: the 4ar= AgesJ Det uni%ersal claims were also an integral )art o: the rhetoric o: that era. All the em)ires claimed to rule the worldC someA unaware o: the e,istence o: other ci%ili5ationsA ma #e e%en #elie%ed that the did. 3he realit A howe%erA was not a glo#al (hristendomA nor an all2 em#racing +m)ire o: Hea%en. 3he realit was )olitical :ragmentation. And that is also true toda . 3he de:ining characteristic o: our age is not a shi:t o: )ower u)ward to su)ranational institutionsA #ut downward. With the end o: statesE mono)ol on the means o: %iolence and the colla)se o: their control o%er channels o: communicationA humanit has entered an era characteri5ed as much # disintegration as integration. 9: :ree :lows o: in:ormation and o: means o: )roduction em)ower multinational cor)orations and nongo%ernmental organi5ations >as well as e%angelistic religious cults o: all denominations?A the :ree :low o: destructi%e technolog em)owers #oth criminal organi5ations and terrorist cells. 3hese grou)s can o)erateA it seemsA where%er the chooseA :rom Ham#urg to Ga5a. B contrastA the writ o: the internationl communit is not glo#al at all. 9t isA in :actA increasingl con:ined to a :ew strategic cities such as <a#ul and Pristina. 9n shortA it is the nonstate actors who trul wield glo#al )ower22including #oth the mon=s and the Pi=ings o: our time. "o what is le:tJ Waning em)ires. Religious re%i%als.
a world without a h )er)ower might 0uic=l :ind itsel: reli%ing. 3he trou#le isA o: courseA that this 4ar= Age would #e an altogether more dangerous one than the 4ar= Age o: the ninth centur . 7or the
9nci)ient anarch . A coming retreat into :orti:ied cities. 3hese are the 4ar= Age e,)eriences that world is much more )o)ulous2roughl 2/ times more22so :riction #etween the worldEs dis)arate Btri#esB is #ound to #e more :re0uent. 3echnolog has trans:ormed )roductionC now human societies de)end not merel on :reshwater and the har%est #ut also on su))lies o: :ossil :uels that are =nown to #e :inite. 3echnolog has u)graded destructionA tooA so it is now )ossi#le not Must to sac= a cit #ut to o#literate it. 7or more than two decadesA glo#ali5ation2the integration o: world mar=ets :or commoditiesA la#orA and ca)ital22has raised li%ing standards throughout the
3he re%ersal o: glo#ali5ation22which a new 4ar= Age would certainl lead to economic stagnation and e%en de)ression. As the 1nited "tates sought to )rotect itsel: a:ter a second "e)tem#er 11 de%astatesA sa A Houston or (hicagoA it would ine%ita#l #ecome a less o)en societ A less hos)ita#le :or :oreigners see=ing to wor=A %isitA or do #usiness.
worldA e,ce)t where countries ha%e shut themsel%es o:: :rom the )rocess through t rann or ci%il war. would )roduce22 6eanwhileA as +uro)eEs 6uslim encla%es grewA 9slamist e,tremistsE in:iltration o: the +1 would #ecome irre%ersi#leA increasing trans2Atlantic tensions o%er the 6iddle +ast to the #rea=ing )oint. (ommunist unleashing the centri:ugal :orces that undermined )re%ious (hinese em)ires. Western in%estors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are )re:era#le to the ris=s o: de:ault a#road. 3he worst e::ects o:
An economic meltdown in (hina would )lunge the
s stem into crisisA
3he wealthiest )orts o: the glo#al econom 22:rom ;ew Dor= to Rotterdam to "hanghai22 would #ecome the targets o: )lunderers and )irates. With easeA terrorists could disru)t the :reedom o: the seasA targeting oil tan=ersA aircra:t carriersA and cruise linersA while Western nations :ranticall concentrated on ma=ing their air)orts secure. 6eanwhileA limited nuclear wars could de%astate numerous regionsA #eginning in the <orean )eninsula and <ashmirA )erha)s ending catastro)hicall in the 6iddle +ast. 9n Latin AmericaA wretchedl )oor citi5ens would see= solace in +%angelical (hristianit im)orted # 1.". religious orders. 9n A:ricaA the great )lagues o: aids and malaria would continue their deadl wor=. 3he :ew remaining sol%ent airlines would sim)l sus)end ser%ices to man cities in these continentsC who
the new 4ar= Age would #e :elt on the edges o: the waning great )owers. would wish to lea%e their )ri%atel guarded sa:e ha%ens to go thereJ 7or all these reasonsA the )ros)ect o: an a)olar world should :righten us toda a great deal more than it :rightened the heirs
9: the 1nited "tates retreats :rom glo#al hegemon 22its :ragile sel:2image dented # minor set#ac=s on the im)erial :rontier2 its critics at home and a#road must not )retend that the are ushering in a new era o: multi)olar harmon A or e%en a return to the good old #alance o: )ower. Be care:ul what ou wish :or. 3he alternati%e to uni)olarit would not #e multi)olarit at all. 9t would #e a)olarit 2a glo#al %acuum o: )ower. And :ar more dangerous :orces than ri%al great )owers would #ene:it :rom such a not2so2new world disorder.
o: (harlemagne.
2I
9uman Rig!ts
;e# 'o .ur5i5al Co)elon 99* /R!onda* (ro&essor* a"* C8ND* 0'!e Indi5isible 3rame"or$ o& International 9uman Rig!ts*= N2W
D1R; CI'D AW R2VI2W* 199I+1999* ). A1BA2.6
3he indi%isi#le human rights :ramewor= sur%i%ed the (old War des)ite 1.". machinations to truncate it in the international arena. 3he :ramewor= is there to shatter the m th o: the su)eriorit K'&2L o: the 1.". %ersion o: rightsA to re#uild )o)ular e,)ectationsA and to hel) de%elo) a culture and Muris)rudence o: indi%isi#le human rights. 9ndeedA in the :ace o: s stemic ine0ualit and crushing )o%ert A %iolence # o::icial and )ri%ate actorsA glo#ali5ation o: the mar=et econom A and militar and en%ironmental de)redationA the human rights :ramewor= is gaining new :orce and new dimensions. 9t is #eing #roadened toda # the mo%ements o: )eo)le in di::erent )arts o: the worldA )articularl in the "outhern Hemis)here and signi:icantl o: womenA who understand the )rotection o: human rights as a matter o: indi%idual and collecti%e human sur%i%al and #etterment. Also emerging is a notion o: third2generation rightsA encom)assing collecti%e rights that cannot #e sol%ed on a state2# 2
state #asis and that call :or new mechanisms o: accounta#ilit A )articularl a::ecting ;orthern countries. 3he emerging rights include human2centered sustaina#le de%elo)mentA en%ironmental
Gi%en the )o%ert and ine0ualit in the 1nited "tates as well as our role in the worldA it is im)erati%e that we #ring the human rights :ramewor= to #ear on #oth domestic and :oreign )olic .
)rotectionA )eaceA and securit . 3*
29
Iran (roli&
'!e Im)act Is Nuclear War Cirinione 0C* />ose)!* .enior Associate and Director &or NonB(roli&eration* Carnegie 2ndo"ment &or International
(eace* 0(roli&eration '!reats and .olutions*= N1'R2 DA:2 >18RNA 13 AW* 2'9IC. Q (8B IC (1 ICD 5. 19* 200C* ). 7?1.6
. 9: 9ran #ecomes a nuclear stateA other states in the region willA :or their own geo2)olitical reasonsA :eel li=e the ha%e to match the nuclear wea)on ca)a#ilit in =ind. 7or e,am)leA +g )t might restart the nuclear )rogram that it had in the 1-$/s. "audi Ara#iaA who hea%il :inanced
3he )rimar danger to the 1nited "tates and the world :rom the emergence o: new nuclear states is the regional insta#ilit that will li=el result Pa=istanEs nuclear wea)ons )rogramA might use their in:luence in Pa=istan and in%ite Pa=istan to station nuclear wea)ons on "audi territor . 3ur=e would consider their nuclear o)tions. A
there would #e a chain reaction throughout the region surrounding a new nuclear state. "uddenl A a 6iddle +ast with one nuclear )ower 2 9srael 2 would #ecome a region o: twoA threeA or :our nuclear )owers. 3his scenarioA in com#ination with e,isting unresol%ed tensionsA )olitical dis)utesA and territorial and religious dis)utesA would #e a reci)e :or nuclear war.
new go%ernment in 9ra0A i: there is a sta#le go%ernment in 9ra0 at that )ointA might consider restarting 9ra0Es nuclear e::ort. 9n sumA
70
Nort! ;orea
Con&lict Wit! ;orea Ris$s A Nuclear Con&lagration C!ol /Center &or ;oreanBAmerican (eace6 10+22+99J;im :#ong* 8.BD(R; Will 2nd 8) in .!otgun :arriage*
Nautilus Institute 11+20+07 ++macBdc!L (olic# 3orum 1nline* !tt)4++""".nautilus.org+&ora+securit#+990AGO;im.!tml* accessed*
;o shotgun marriage would mean that ;orth <orea would emerge as a maMor nuclear )ower with an intercontinental missile stri=e ca)a#ilit A or the ;orth <oreans :ighting a nuclear duel with the AmericansA with their 9(B6s crossing )aths a#o%e the Paci:ic. A thermonuclear con:lagration would en%elo) metro)olitan America as well as "outh <orea and Oa)an. ;orth <orea will ne%er )erish alone.
71
Nuclear 'esting
2art! Goes Deat! .tar C!al$o <07 JDr. 'om* :sc* (!D* 9ead o& Geo)!#sics Di5ision Q .ci Reearc! G :t Best* 0Can a Neutron Bomb
accelerate Global Volcanic Acti5it#P= % 0,++u"#oBaKlL &ournal of Discovery* :arc!* nuKournal.net+neutronObomb.)d&* 9B12B
(onse0uences o: using modern nuclear wea)ons can #e :ar more serious than )re%iousl imagined. 3hese conse0uences relate to the :act that most o: the heat generated in the )lanetar interior is a result o: nuclear deca . .%er the last :ew decadesA all so2called B B K1L. 3hese #om#s are designed to emit intensi%e neutron radiation while creating relati%el little local mechanical damage. 6ilitar seem %er =een to use neutron #om#s in com#atA #ecause lethal neutron radiation can )enetrate e%en the largest and dee)est #un=ers. Howe%erA the militar seem to ignore the :act that a neutron radiation is ca)a#le to reach signi:icant de)ths in the
su)er)owers ha%e #een de%elo)ing
neutron #om#s
a neutron #eam stimulates nuclei o: radioacti%e isoto)es inside the )lanet to disintegrate. "timulated disintegrationA in turnA )roduces more neutrons. 3his )rocess causes not onl an increase in
)lanetar interior. 9n the )rocess o: )assing through the )lanet and losing its intensit A radiation le%els #ut also increased nuclear heat generation in the )lanetar interiorA :ar greater than the energ o: the #om# itsel:. 9t t )icall ta=es man da s or e%en wee=s :or this e,tra heat to conductQcon%ect to the sur:ace o: the )lanet and cause increased seismicQ%olcanic acti%it . 4ue to this %aria#le and seemingl inconsistent dela A nuclear tests are not currentl associated with seismicQ%olcanic acti%it A sim)l #ecause it is #elie%ed that there is no theoretical #asis :or such an association. Perha)s ou heard that a:ter e%er maMor series o: nuclear test there is alwa s a )eriod o: increased seismic acti%it in some )art o: the world. 3his actuall cannot#e e,)lained # direct energ :rom the e,)losion. 3he mechanism o: neutron radiation accelerating deca o: radioacti%e isoto)es in the )lanetar interior a )rocess that generates more neutrons and heatA howe%erA is a %er realistic e,)lanation o: .#ser%a#le Realit . 3he )rocess o: accelerating %olcanic acti%it is nuclear in essence. Accelerated deca o: radioacti%e isoto)es alread )resent in the )lanetar interior )ro%ides the necessar energ . 3he 3R1+ danger o:
their neutron radiation is ca)a#le to induce glo#al o%erheating o: the )lanetar interiorA glo#al %olcanic acti%it andA in e,treme circumstancesA ma e%en cause the entire )lanet to #e demolished. "o :arA nuclear tests on +arth were limited to a :ew )er ear. (an we reall )redict what will ha))en i: the 1" arm uses do5ens o: their
modern nuclear wea)onr is that ;eutron Bom#s to destro all Fsus)ectedG and F)otentialG wea)on sites in 9ra0J
72
Nuclear War
'!e im)act is e%tinction Gordon 02* /9ar5e#* Visiting ecturer* 3orensic (s#c!iatr#* 'el A5i5 8ni5ersit#* 0'!e R.uicide< Bomber4 Is It a
(s#c!iatric (!enomenonP= (.DC9IA'RIC B8 2'IN 5. 2,* 2002* )). 2ICB2IA. A5ailable &rom t!e Wrold Wide Web at4 !tt)4++)b.rc)s#c!.org+cgi+content+&ull+2,+I+2IC6
the e,istence o: wea)ons o: mass destruction now renders terrorism a )otential threat to the %er e,istence o: human li:e >Hoge S RoseA 2//1?. "uch )otential glo#al destructionA or glo#icide as one might call itA su)ersedes e%en that o: genocide in its lethalit . Although religious :actors are not the onl determinant o: RsuicideH #om#ersA the re%i%al o: religious :undamentalism towards the end o: the 2/th centur renders the )henomenon a maMor glo#al threat. +%en though religion can #e a :orce :or goodA it can e0uall #e a#used as a :orce :or e%il. 1ltimatel A the )arallel traits in human nature o: good and e%il ma
Although terrorism throughout human histor has #een tragicA until relati%el recentl it has #een more o: an irritant than an maMor ha5ard. Howe%erA )erha)s #e the most dura#le o: all the characteristics o: the human s)ecies. 3here is no need to a))l a )s chiatric anal sis to the RsuicideH #om#er #ecause the )henomenon can #e e,)lained in )olitical terms. 6ost )artici)ants in terrorism are not usuall mentall disordered and their #eha%iour can #e construed more in terms o: grou) d namics >(ol%ardA 2//2?. .n the other handA )erha)s )s chiatric terminolog is as et de:icient in not ha%ing the de)th to encom)ass the emotions and #eha%iour o: grou)s o: )eo)le whose le%els o: hateA low sel:2esteemA humiliation and alienation are such that it is :elt that the can #e remedied # the mass destruction o: li:eA including their own.
77
Nuclear War 1ut"eig!s

(R2V2N'ING N8C 2AR 2S'INC'I1N I. '92 1N D WAD '1 (R2.2RV2 VA 82. .c!ell I2* />onat!an *Kournalist* 3A'2 13 '92 2AR'9* 19I2* ). 1I?.6 o: all the Fmodest ho)es o: human #eingsAG the ho)e that KhuLman=ind will sur%i%e is the most modestA #rings us to the threshold o: all other ho)es. 9n entertaining itA we do not et as= :or MusticeA or :reedomA or :or ha))inessA or :or an o: the other things that we ma want in li:e . We do not e%en necessaril as= :or our )ersonal sur%i%alC we as= onl that we #e sur%i%ed. We as= :or assurance that when we die as indi%idualsA as we =now we mustA KhuLman=ind will li%e on. Det once the )eril o: e,tinction is )resent A as it is :or us nowA the ho)e :or human sur%i%al #ecomes the most tremendous ho)e A Must #ecause it is the :oundation :or all the other ho)esA and in its a#sence e%er other ho)e will graduall wither and die. Li:e without ho)e :or human sur%i%al is a li:e o: des)air.
7or since it onl
IN A N8C 2AR W1R D W2 9AV2 '1 W2IG9 C1N.2N82NC2. Bo$ II* /.issela * (ro&essor* (!iloso)!#* Brandies 8ni5ersit#* A(( I2D 2'9IC. AND 2'9ICA '921RD* ed. D.
Rosent!al Q 3. .!e!adi* 19II.6
3he same argument can #e made :or <antHs other :ormulations o: the (ategorical 9m)erati%e@ F"o act as to use humanit A #oth in our )erson and in the )erson o: e%er otherA alwa s at the same time as an endA ne%er sim)l as a meansG@ and F"o act as i: ou were alwa s through actions in a law2ma=ing mem#er in a uni%ersal <ingdom o: +nds.G
;o one with a
concern :or humanit could consistentl will to ris= eliminating humanit in the )erson o: himsel: and e%er other or to ris= the death o: all mem#ers in a uni%ersal <ingdom o: +nds :or the sa=e o: Mustice. 3o ris= their collecti%e death :or the sa=e o: :ollowing oneHs conscience would #eA as Rawls saidA FirrationalA cra5 AG And to sa that one did not intend such a catastro)heA #ut that one merel :ailed to sto) other )ersons :rom #ringing it a#out would #e #eside the )oint when the end o: the world was at sta=e . 7or although it is true that we cannot #e held res)onsi#le :or most o: the wrongs that others commitA the Latin ma,im )resents a case where we would ha%e to ta=e such a res)onsi#ilit seriousl 2 )erha)s to the )oint o: decei%ingA #ri#ingA e%en =illing an innocent )ersonA in order that the world would not )erish.
7?
(o5ert#
(o5ert# :a$es Global Nuclear War Ine5itable Cald"ell 07 />ose)! George Cald"ell* (!D* '!e 2nd o& t!e World* and t!e Ne" World 1rder* u)dae o& an article
)ublis!ed 10+2,+00* :arc! ,* 2007* """.&oundation.b"+'!e2nd1&'!eWorld.!tm.
9t would a))ear that glo#al nuclear war will ha))en %er soonA :or two main reasons A alluded to a#o%e. 7irstA human )o%ert and miser are increasing at an incredi#le rate. 3here are now three #illion more des)eratel )oor )eo)le on the )lanet than there were Must :ort ears ago. 4es)ite decades o: industrial de%elo)mentA the num#er o: wretchedl )oor )eo)le continues to soar. 3he )ressure :or war mounts as the )o)ulation e,)lodes. "econdA war is moti%ated # resource scarcit 22 the desire o: one grou) to ac0uire the landA waterA energ A or other resources )ossessed # another. With each )assing
earA crowding and miser increaseA raising the moti%ation :or war to higher le%els.
(o5ert# is t!e deadliest &orm o& structural 5iolence @ it is e-ui5alent to an ongoing nuclear "ar. Gilligan* 9,< J>ames* 3ormer Director o& :ental 9ealt! &or t!e :assac!usetts (rison .#stem* Violence* ).L 9n other wordsA e%er :i:teen earsA on the a%erageA as man )eo)le die #ecause o: relati%e )o%ert as would #e =illed in a nuclear that caused 232 million deaths C and e%er single earA two to three times as man )eo)le die :rom )o%ert throughout the world as were =illed # the ;a5i genocide o: the Oews o%er a si,2 ear )eriod. 3his isA in e::ectA the e0ui%alent o: an ongoing A unenendingA in :act acceleratingA thermonuclear warA or genocideA )er)etuated on the wea= and )oor e%er ear o: e%er decadeA throughout the world.
7C
(roli&
(roli&eration Ris$s 2%tinction .tuart 'a#lor >r.* Kournalist* 2GA 'I:2.* .e)tember 1,* 2002* N.
3he truth isA no matter what we do a#out 9ra0A i: we donEt sto) )roli:eration another :i%e or ten )otentiall unsta#le nations ma go nuclear #e:ore longA ma=ing it e%er more li=el that one or more #om#s will #e set o:: on our soil # terrorists or terrorist go%ernments. +%en an airtight missile de:ense will #e useless against a nu=e hidden in a truc=A a shi))ing containerA or a #oat.
1nless we get serious a#out sto))ing )roli:erationA we are headed :or Ba world :illed with nuclear2wea)ons states where e%er crisis threatens to go nuclearAB where Bthe sur%i%al o: ci%ili5ation trul is in 0uestion :rom da to da AB and where Bit would #e im)ossi#le to =ee) these wea)ons out o: the hands o: terroristsA
religious cultsA and criminal organi5ationsAB "o writes Am#assador 3homas Graham Or.A a moderate Re)u#lican who ser%ed as a career arms2controller under si, )residents and led the success:ul (linton administration e::ort to e,tend the ;uclear ;on)roli:eration 3reat .
7,
Racism
:ust ReKect Barndt R91 J>ose)!* CoBdirector o& :inistr# Wor$ing to Dismantle Racism* TDismantling RacismT ). 1CC++"dcL the walls o: racism can #e dismantled. We are not condemned to an ine,ora#le :ateA #ut are o::ered the %ision and the )ossi#ilit o: :reedom. Bric= # #ric=A stone # stoneA the )rison o: indi%idualA institutionalA and cultural racism can #e destro ed. Dou and 9 are urgentl called to Moing the e::orst o: those who =now it is time to tear downA once and :or allA the walls o: racism.3he danger )oint o: sel:2destruction seems to #e drawing e%en more near. 3he results o: centuries o: national and worldwide con0uest and colonialismA o: militar #uildu)s and %iolent aggressionA o: o%erconsum)tion and en%ironmental destruction ma #e reaching a )oint o: no return. A small and )redominantl white minorit o: the glo#al )o)ulation deri%es its )ower and )ri%elage :rom the su::erings o: %ast maMorit o: )eo)les o: all color. 7or the sa=e o: the world and oursel%esA we dare not allow it to continue.
But we ha%e also seen that
3ailure 'o Combat Racism Ris$s 2%tinction >ose)! Barndt* CoBDirector* Crossroads* DI.:AN' ING RACI.:* 1991* ). 1CCB1C,
3he limitations im)osed on )eo)le o: color # )o%ert A su#ser%ienceA and )owerlessness are cruelA inhumanA and unMust@ the e::ects o: uncontrolled )ower )ri%ilegeA and greedA which are the
the walls o: racism can #e dismantled. We are not condemned to an ine,ora#le :ateA #ut are o::ered the %ision and the )ossi#ilit o: :reedom. Bric= # #ric=A stone # stoneA the )rison o: indi%idualA institutionalA and cultural racism can #e destro ed. Dou and 9 are urgentl called to Moin the e::orts o: those who =now it is time to tear downA once and :or allA the walls o: racism. 3he danger )oint o: sel:2destruction seems to #e drawing e%en more near. 3he results o: centuries o: national and worldwide con0uest and colonialismA o: militar #uildu)s and %iolent aggressionA o: o%erconsum)tion
mar=s o: our white )risonA will ine%ita#l destro us. But we ha%e also seen that and en%ironmental destructionA ma #e reaching a )oint o: no return. A small and )redominatel white minorit o: the glo#al )o)ulation deri%es its )ower and )ri%ilege :rom the su::ering o: the %ast maMorit o: )eo)les o: color.
7or the sa=e o: the world and oursel%esA we dare not allow it to continue.
7A
Ra)e
Ra)e is a &ate "orse t!an deat! and causes traumatic longBterm )s#c!ological )roblems GlaFer 9A* Assistant District Attorne# o& Bron% Count#* R9A JDale* TC!ild Ra)ists Be"areU '!e Deat! (enalt# and
ouisianaVs Amended Aggra5ated Ra)e .tatuteT* American &ournal of Criminal 'a() 3all* 2C Am. >. Crim. . A9L
Ra)e is one o: the :astest growing %iolent crimes re)orted in the 1nited "tates C it is estimated that a ra)e is
re)orted e%er two to si, minutes and that one o: e%er si, women will #e ra)ed at some )oint in their li%es. "tudies o: ra)e show it to #e a %iolent and #rutal crimeA o:ten in%ol%ing se,ual
Ra)e is uni0ue among acts o: %iolence@ it shatters not onl a %ictimEs )h sical well2#eing #ut also her emotional world. Ps chologists sa that the sur%i%ing %ictimEs sense o: sel:2esteemA securit and #asic trust ma #e irre)ara#l damaged.B Ra)e has #een called a B:ate worse than death. T As a result o: #eing ra)edA %ictims o:ten su::er e,treme traumaA #oth )h sicall and emotionall . 3he s m)toms e,)erienced # ra)e %ictims ha%e #een com)ared in se%erit to )ost2traumatic stress disorder o#ser%ed in war %eterans. Ra)e o:ten induces a c cle o: #eha%ioral )ro#lems that e,tend well #e ond the time when the )h sical damage :rom the assault has healed. Women o:ten e,)erience Bintense attac=s on KtheirL )s chic e0uili#riumAB o:ten re0uiring intensi%e )s chothera) treatments. .ther
humiliation and )h sical a#use. B long2term conse0uences o: ra)e include sel:2destructi%e #eha%iorA im)aired sel:2esteemA inter)ersonal )ro#lemsA and a greater li=elihood o: #ecoming a drug or alcohol addict.
7I
.)ace
1ne !undred trillion !umans are lost e5er# second o& dela#ed coloniFation Bostrom* (ro&essor o& (!iloso)!# at Dale Q 1%&ord* 2;? /Nic$* 0Astronomical Waste4 '!e 1))ortunit# Cost
o& Dela#ed 'ec!nological De5elo)ment*= !tt)4++""".nic$bostrom.com+astronomical+"aste.!tml6
our great common endowment o: negentro) is #eing irre%ersi#l degraded into entro) on a cosmic scale. 3hese are resources that an ad%anced ci%ili5ation could ha%e used to create %alue2structuresA such as sentient #eings li%ing worthwhile li%es. 3he rate o: this
BAs 9 write these wordsA suns are illuminating and heating em)t roomsA unused energ is #eing :lushed down #lac= holesA and loss #oggles the mind. .ne recent )a)er s)eculatesA using loose theoretical considerations #ased on the rate o: increase o: entro) A that the loss o: )otential human li%es in our own galactic su)ercluster is at least T1/U4$ )er centur o: dela ed coloni5ation.K1L 3his estimate assumes that all the lost entro) could ha%e #een used :or )roducti%e )ur)osesA although no currentl =nown technological mechanisms are e%en remotel ca)a#le o: doing that. "ince the estimate is meant to #e a lower #oundA this radicall unconser%ati%e assum)tion is undesira#le. We canA howe%erA get a lower #ound more straight:orwardl # sim)l counting the num#er or stars in our galactic su)ercluster and multi)l ing this num#er with the amount o: com)uting )ower that the resources o: each star could #e used to generate using technologies :or whose :easi#ilit a strong case has alread #een made. We can then di%ide this total with the estimated amount o: com)uting )ower needed to simulate one human li:e. As a rough a))ro,imationA let us sa the Pirgo "u)ercluster contains 1/U13 stars. .ne estimate o: the com)uting )ower e,tracta#le :rom a star and with an associated )lanet2si5ed com)utational structureA using ad%anced molecular nanotechnolog K2LA is 1/U42 o)erations )er second.K3L A t )ical estimate o: the human #rainEs )rocessing )ower is roughl 1/U1& o)erations )er second or less.K4L ;ot much more seems to #e needed to simulate the rele%ant )arts o: the en%ironment in su::icient detail to ena#le the simulated minds to ha%e e,)eriences indistinguisha#le :rom t )ical current human e,)eriences.K!L Gi%en these estimatesA it :ollows that the )otential :or a))ro,imatel 1/U3* human li%es is lost e%er centur that coloni5ation o: our local su)ercluster is dela edC or e0ui%alentl A a#out 1/U31 )otential human li%es )er second. While this estimate is conser%ati%e in that it assumes onl com)utational mechanisms whose im)lementation has #een at least outlined in the literatureA it is use:ul to ha%e an e%en more conser%ati%e estimate that does not assume a non2#iological
. "u))ose that a#out 1/U1/ #iological humans could #e sustained around an a%erage star. 3hen the Pirgo "u)ercluster could contain 1/U23 #iological humans. 3his corres)onds to a loss o: )otential e0ual to a#out 1/U14 )otential human li%es )er second o: dela ed coloni5ation. What matters :or )resent )ur)oses is not the e,act num#ers #ut the :act that the are huge. +%en with the most conser%ati%e estimateA assuming a #iological im)lementation o: all )ersonsA the )otential :or one hundred trillion )otential human #eings is lost :or e%er second o: )ost)onement o: coloni5ation o: our su)ercluster.K$LB
instantiation o: the )otential )ersons
79
'errorism
2%tinction Ale%ander 00 /Dona!* (ro&essor and Director* InterB8ni5ersit# Center &or 'errorism* 0'errorism in t!e '"ent#B
3irst Centur#4 '!reats and Res)onses*= D2(A8 ,A.6 B8.IN2.. AW >18RNA 5. 12* 3all 1999+.)ring 2000* ). ,,B
6ore s)eci:icall A )resent2da terrorists ha%e introduced into contem)orar li:e a new scale o: terror %iolence in terms o: #oth threats and res)onses that has made clear that we ha%e entered
Perha)s the most signi:icant dangers that e%ol%e :rom modern da terrorism are those relating to the sa:et A wel:areA and rights o: ordinar )eo)leC the sta#ilit o: the state s stemC the health o: economic K'$&L de%elo)mentC the e,)ansion o: democrac C and )ossi#l the sur%i%al o: ci%ili5ation itsel:.
into an Age o: 3errorism with all o: its serious im)lications to nationalA regionalA and glo#al securit concerns. n2!
'errorism Ris$s 2%tinction Gordon 02 /9ar5e#* Visiting ecturer* 3orensic (s#c!iatr#* 'el A5i5 8ni5ersit#* 0'!e R.uicide< Bomber4 Is It a
(s#c!iatric (!enomenonP= (.DC9IA'RIC B8 2'IN 5. 2,* 2002* )). 2ICB2IA. A5ailable &rom t!e Wrold Wide Web at4 !tt)4++)b.rc)s#c!.org+cgi+content+&ull+2,+I+2IC6
the e,istence o: wea)ons o: mass destruction now renders terrorism a )otential threat to the %er e,istence o: human li:e >Hoge S RoseA 2//1?. "uch )otential glo#al destructionA or glo#icide as one might call itA su)ersedes e%en that o: genocide in its lethalit . Although religious :actors are not the onl determinant o: RsuicideH #om#ersA the re%i%al o: religious :undamentalism towards the end o: the 2/th centur renders the )henomenon a maMor glo#al threat. +%en though religion can #e a :orce :or goodA it can e0uall #e a#used as a :orce :or e%il. 1ltimatel A the )arallel traits in human nature o: good and e%il ma
Although terrorism throughout human histor has #een tragicA until relati%el recentl it has #een more o: an irritant than an maMor ha5ard. Howe%erA )erha)s #e the most dura#le o: all the characteristics o: the human s)ecies. 3here is no need to a))l a )s chiatric anal sis to the RsuicideH #om#er #ecause the )henomenon can #e e,)lained in )olitical terms. 6ost )artici)ants in terrorism are not usuall mentall disordered and their #eha%iour can #e construed more in terms o: grou) d namics >(ol%ardA 2//2?. .n the other handA )erha)s )s chiatric terminolog is as et de:icient in not ha%ing the de)th to encom)ass the emotions and #eha%iour o: grou)s o: )eo)le whose le%els o: hateA low sel:2esteemA humiliation and alienation are such that it is :elt that the can #e remedied # the mass destruction o: li:eA including their own.
?0
'o%ic Waste
'o%ic Waste '!reatens '!e .ur5i5al 1& '!e (lanet Debora! ;atF* acti5ist* 'o%ic Waste
""".resistinc.org+ne"sletter+issues+199I+01+art1.!tml* accessed 1+C+0C. '!reatens Communities* 19 9I*
3o,ic contamination o: the )lanet threatens human sur%i%al. 9n our timeA we will detennine whether there is clean air to #reathA water to drin= and )laces to li%e :or our children and theirs. 9ndustrial technolog 2with its shadow o: )ollution2o%erwhelms us and threatens the democratic structures on which we de)end. 3he scienti:ic communit and the nuclear industr undermine citi5ensE con:idence in their a#ilit to understand nuclear )ower
and its e::ects. 6an )eo)le ha%e withdrawn :rom the )rocessA )otentiall allowing %ital decisions to #e dictated outside o: democratic sa:eguards. 3his Bmeltdown o: democrac B is e,em)li:ied in the atomic )ower industr .
?1
'rade Good
.!i&t 3rom 3ree 'rade Ris$s Nuclear Wars Vincent 9. :iller and >ames R. 2l"ood* (resident and Vice (resident* International .ociet# &or Indi5idual ibert#* 03ree 'rade or (rotectionismP '!e Case Against 'rade Restrictions*= 19 II*
!tt)4++""".isil.org+resources+lit+&reeBtradeB)rotectionism.!tml* accessed ,+C+0C.
When the go%ernment o: (ountr BAB )uts u) trade #arriers against the goods o: (ountr BBBA the go%ernment o: (ountr BBB will naturall retaliate # erecting trade #arriers against the
resultJ A trade war in which #oth sides lose . But all too o:ten a de)ressed econom is not the onl negati%e outcome o: a trade war . . . WH+; G..4" 4.;E3 (R."" B.R4+R"A AR69+" .73+; 4. Histor is not lac=ing in e,am)les o: cold trade wars escalating into hot shooting wars @ +uro)e su::ered
goods o: (ountr BAB. 3he :rom almost non2sto) wars during the 1&th and 1*th centuriesA when restricti%e trade )olic >mercantilism? was the ruleC ri%al go%ernments :ought each other to e,)and their em)ires and to e,)loit ca)ti%e mar=ets. British tari::s )ro%o=ed the American colonists to re%olutionA and later the ;orthern2dominated 1" go%ernment im)osed restrictions on "outhern cotton e,)orts 2 a maMor :actor leading to the American (i%il War. 9n the late 1-th (entur A a:ter a hal: centur o: general :ree trade >which #rought a hal:2centur o: )eace?A short2sighted )oliticians throughout +uro)e again #egan erecting trade #arriers. Hostilities #uilt u) until the e%entuall e,)loded into World War 9. 9n 1-3/A :acing onl a mild recessionA 1" President Hoo%er ignored warning )leas in a )etition # 1/2* )rominent economists and signed the notorious "moot2Hawle ActA which raised some tari::s to 1//V le%els. Within a earA o%er 2! other go%ernments had retaliated # )assing similar laws. 3he resultJ World trade came to a grinding haltA and the entire world was )lunged into the BGreat 4e)ressionB :or the rest o: the decade. 3he de)ression in turn led to World War 99. 3H+ W1 4A;G+R 3. W.RL4 P+A(+ 3he world enMo ed its greatest economic growth during the relati%el :ree trade )eriod o: 1-4!21-&/A a
)eriod that also saw no maMor wars. Det we again see trade #arriers #eing raised around the world # short2sighted )oliticians. Will the world again end u) in a
(an we a::ord to allow this to ha))en in the nuclear ageJ BWhat generates war is the economic )hiloso)h o: nationalism @ em#argoesA trade and :oreign e,change controlsA monetar de%aluationA etc. 3he )hiloso)h o: )rotectionism is a )hiloso)h o: war.B Ludwig %on 6ises (lassical Li#eral )hiloso)her Oohn
shooting war as a result o: these economicall 2deranged )olicies J
"tuart 6ill astutel o#ser%ed in the last centur that B3rade #arriers are chie:l inMurious to the countries im)osing them.B 9t is true toda as it was thenA :or the :ollowing reasons@
?2
'rade Bad
'rade 2nsures :assi5e (o5ert#* .ocial Disorder* And :ultil)le .cenarios 3or 2coBDoom >err# :ander* (rogram Director* 3oundation &or Dee) 2colog#* 03acing t!e Rising 'ide*= '92 CA.2 AGAIN.' '92 G 1BA 2C1N1:D* ed. >. :ander Q 2. Gold"mit!* 199,* ). 7B?.
3he occasional descri)tions or )redictions a#out the glo#al econom that are :ound in the media usuall come :rom the leading ad%ocates and #ene:iciaries o: this new order@ cor)orate leadersA their allies in go%ernmentA and a newl )ower:ul centrali5ed glo#al trade #ureaucrac . 3he %isions the o::er us are un:ailingl
"hoc=ingl enoughA the eu)horia the e,)ress is #ased on their :reedom to em)lo A at a glo#al le%elNthrough the new glo#al :ree trade rules A and through deregulation and economic restructuring regimesN large2scale %ersions o: the economic theoriesA strategiesA and )olicies that ha%e )ro%en s)ectacularl unsuccess:ul o%er the )ast se%eral decades where%er the H%e #een a))lied. 9n :actA these are the %er ideas that ha%e #rough us to the grim situation o: the moment@ the s)reading disintegration o: the social orderA and the increase in )o%ert A landlessnessA homelessnessA %iolenceA alientationA and dee) within the hearts o: man )eo)leA e,treme an,iet a#out the :uture. +0uall im)ortantA these are )ractices that ha%e led us to the near #rea=down o: the natural worldA as e%idenced # such s m)toms as glo#al climate changeA o5one de)letionA massi%e s)ecies lossA and near ma,imum le%els o: airA soilA and water )ollution. We are now #eing as=ed to #elie%e that the de%elo)ment )rocesses that ha%e :urther im)o%erished )eo)le and de%astated the )lanet will lead to
)ositi%eA e%en uto)ian@ Glo#ali5ation will #e a )anacea :or our ills. diametricall di::erent and highl #ene:icial outcomesA i: onl the can #e accelerated and a))lied e%er whereA :reel A without restrictionC that isA when the are globalized. 3hatHs the #ad news. 3he good news is that it is not too late to sto) this :rom ha))ening.
?7
Warming Bad
Warming Destro#s All i&e 1n 2art!ERuna"a# Green!ouse 3ollo"ed B# :artian Dee) 3reeFe Brandenburg Q (a%son /(!ds6 <99 J>o!n Q :onica* Dead :ars* D#ing 2art!* ). 272 ++"ndi07L .ne can imagine a scenario :or glo#al catastro)he that runs similarl . 9: the human race ado)ted a mentalit li=e the crew a#oard the shi) Californian- as some urgeA sa ing that #oth o5one hole and glo#al warming will disa))ear i: statistics are )ro)erl e,aminedA and we need do nothing a#out either2 the :ollowing scenario could occur.
3he o5one hole e,)andsA dri%en # a monstrous s nerg with glo#al warming that )uts more catal tic ice cr stals into the stratos)hereA #ut this a::ects the :ar north and south and not the maMor
3he sea riseA the tro)ic roast #ut the media networ=s no longer co%er it. 3he Ama5on rain:orest #ecomes the Ama5on desert. ., gen le%els :allA #ut )ro:its rise :or those who can )ro%ide it in #ottles. An e0uatorial high )ressure 5one :ormsA :orcing drought in central A:rica and Bra5ilA the ;ile dries u) and the monsoons :ailA 3hen ine%ita#l A at some unluc= )oint in timeA a maMor une,)ected e%ent occursNa maMor %olcanic eru)tionA a sudden and dramatic shi:t in ocean circulation or a large asteroid im)act > those who thin= :rea=ish accidents do not occur ha%e )aid little attention to li:e or mars?A or a nuclear war that starts #etween Pa=istan and 9ndia and escalates to in%ol%e (hina and RussiaX "uddenl the gradual clim# in glo#al tem)eratures goes on a mad e,cursion as the oceans warm and release large amounts o: dissol%ed car#on dio,ide :rom their lower de)ths into the atmos)here. ., gen le%els go down )reci)itousl as o, gen re)laces lost oceanic car#on dio,ide. Asthma cases dou#le and then dou#le again. ;ow a third o: the world :ears #reathing.. As the oceans dum) car#on dio,ideA the greenhouse e::ect increasesA which :urther warmsA the oceansA causing them to dum) e%en more car#on. Because o: the heatA )lants die and #urn in enormous :ires which release more car#on dio,ideA and the oceans e%a)orateA adding more water %a)or to the greenhouse. "oonA we are in what is termed a runawa greenhouse e::ectA as ha))ened to Penus eons ago. 3he last two sur%i%ing scientist ine%ita#l argueA one telling the otherA F"eeY 9 told ou the missing sin=
nationsH heartlands. was in the oceanYG
+arthA as we =now it dies. A:ter this Penusian e,cursion in tem)eraturesA the o, gen disa))ears into the soilA the oceans e%a)orate and are lost and the dead earth
loses it o5one la er com)letel . +arth is too :ar :rom the sun :or it to #e the second Penus :or long. 9ts atmos)here is slowl lost2 as is its water2 #ecause o: ultra%iolet #om#ardment #rea=ing u) all the molecules a)art :rom car#on dio,ide. As the atmos)here #ecomes thinA the earth #ecomes colder. 7or a short while tem)eratures are nearl normalA #ut the ultra%iolet sears and li:e that tries to ma=e a come#ac=. 3he car#on dio,ide thins out to :orm a thin= %eneer with a :ew wis) clouds and dust de%ils.
+arth #ecomes the second 6ars2 redA desolateA
with )erha)s a :ew hard micro#es sur%i%ing.
??
Warming Bad @ C!al$o

Warming Causes '!e 2art! 'o Go Deat! .tar Dr. 'om >. C!al$o* :.* 2ngineering Q (!D* aser 9ologra)!#* 0Global Warming4 Can 2art! 2%)lodeP= 20 02*
!tt)4++""".bioresonant.com+ne"s.!tm.
3he real danger :or our entire ci%ili5ation comes not :rom slow climate changesA #ut :rom o%erheating the )lanetar interior. Galileo disco%ered that +arth mo%es. (o)ernicus disco%ered that +arth mo%es around the "un. 9n 2/// 3om (hal=oA ins)ired # 4esmar0uetEs re)ortA disco%ered that the solid nucleus o: our )lanet is in )rinci)le a nuclear reactor and that our collecti%e ignorance ma cause it to o%erheat and e,)lode. 3he disco%er has #een )u#lished in Oune 2//1 # the new scienti:ic Mournal ;1Oournal.net.
Polar ice ca)s melt not #ecause the air there is warmer than / deg (elsiusA #ut #ecause the are o%erheated :rom underneath. Polcanoes #ecome acti%e and eru)t %iolentl not #ecause the +arthEs interior Bcr stalli5esBA #ut #ecause the )lanetar nucleus is a nuclear :ission reactor that needs (..L9;G. 9t seems that the currentl ado)ted doctrine o: a Bcr stalline inner core o: +arthB is #ecause it )re%ents us :rom imaginingA )redicting and )re%enting trul glo#al disasters. 9n an nuclear reactorA the danger o: o%erheating has to #e recogni5ed earl . When e,ternal s m)toms intensi: it is usuall too late to )re%ent disaster. 4o we ha%e enough imaginationA intelligence and integrit to com)rehend the danger #e:ore the situation #ecomes irre%ersi#leJ 4id ou see the :igure
more dangerous :or humanit than all wea)ons o: mass destruction ta=en togetherA
i: we do not do an thing toda a#out Greenhouse +missions that cause the entire atmos)here to tra) more "olar HeatA we ma not sur%i%e the ne,t decade. 9n a s stematicall under2cooled s)herical core reactor the cumulati%e cause2e::ect relationshi) is h )er#olic and leads to e,)losion. 9t seems that there will #e no second chance... 9: ou dou#t whether a )lanet can e,)lode 2 ou need to see a witness re)ort o: a )lanetar e,)losion in our
a#o%eJ 9t seems that "olar s stem. Plato >42*234* B(? re)orted that the e,)losion o: the )lanet Phaeton had #een )ercei%ed # our ancestors on +arth to #e as #right as lightning... ' the :irst :ew months o: 2//2 were the WAR6+"3 e%er recorded on +arth. 3he trend continues. ' Huge )arts o: Antarctic and Arctic ice ha%e alread melted. <e Antarctic glaciers >He=toriaA Green and +%ans :or e,am)le? increased their melting rate * times in 3 ears >#etween 2/// and 2//3A Geo)h s. Res. Lett.A 31A L1*4/1?. When glaciers #egin to slide to the oceanA the sea le%el rise will cause a glo#al )lanetar :lood. ' Polcanoes #ecome acti%e under Arctic .cean and in Antarctica ' 3he Largest Polcanoes on +arth are losing their snow2ca)s ' .ceans are warmer than e%er. 3heir increased e%a)oration )roduces large amount o: cloudsA rain and wides)read :looding ' 9n heated oceans all currents are se%erel disru)ted ' 6ountain glaciers melt around the glo#e ' 3he weather around the glo#e #ecomes more %iolent e%er month What causes *2:old increase in Antarctic glacier melting in Must 3 earsJ "un does not deli%er * times the energ under the Antarctic ice does itJ "ome scientists )redict that e::ects o: Bglo#al warmingB will ta=e man decades. (an the e,)lain the increase o: the melting rate o: Antarctic glaciers * times in 3 earsJ .%erheating o: the :ission heated )lanetar interior can... 3he matter seems 1RG+;3. Please :orward this )age >or the lin= to it? to A;D scientist or )erson o: integrit whom ou =now. .ur .;LD chance seems to #e to 1;4+R"3A;4 and PR.P+ to e%er one what will ha))en i: we do not change our attitude to atmos)heric )ollution. A%oid the mass media 2 it seems that the are controlled # those who run the Beconom B and are interested in =ee)ing humanit misin:ormed to the greatest e,tent )ossi#le. 3o withholdA distort or otherwise inter:ere with the truth a#out the Planetar (ore is a (rime Against Humanit 2 one o: the greatest crimes that man can commit. 6one cannot sa%e the Planet. .nl 1nderstanding can. 7ocus on 1nderstanding. 9t cannot #e undone.
?C
Warming Good @ 9ealt!

9istor# (ro5es '!at Warming Increases 9ealt! :oore /.r. 3ello"* 9oo5er Institution* .tan&ord 8ni5.6 <9I J'!omas Gale* Climate o& 3ear4 W!# We .!ouldn<t
Worr# About Global Warming ++"ndi07L
<remerHs h )othesis signi:ies that :or most o: histor the rate o: )o)ulation growth should #e )ro)ortional to the si5e o: the )o)ulation. 3o lin= his model and data with climate changeA 9 started with his estimate o: the worldHs )eo)le in 1/A/// B.(. and calculated the rate o: growth o: the )o)ulation o%er the ne,t !A/// ears. 7or each su#se0uent )eriodA 9 also com)uted the rate o: increase in num#ers o: )eo)le. eras in which the num#er o: humans has e,)anded :aster than )redicted and )eriods during which the worldHs )o)ulation has grown more slowl . 3he :igure then shows the centuries in which the growth rate o: the glo#eHs
(om)aring the e,)ected rates with actual growth re%ealed
warm )eriods ha%e done considera#l #etter than cold )eriods in human e,)ansion. 3he warmest )eriod since the end o: the last 9ce Age )roduced the highest rate o: )o)ulation growth com)ared with what would ha%e #een e,)ected Nin that era agriculture was s)reading. 6oreo%erA the 6ini 9ce AgeA which saw the coldest tem)eratures in the last 1/A/// earsA underwent the slowest relati%e )o)ulation e,)ansion. 3he :igure demonstrates that man=ind has )ros)ered in warm )eriods and the hotterA the #etterY
)o)ulace has e,ceeded or :allen short o: the rate e,)ected under this sim)le model. As can #e seenA
?,

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Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

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World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

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does su::er i: wage di::erentials grow too great

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World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

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Adding :oreigners the ha%e =illed

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

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World Go Boom Regents

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World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

9ig! 3ood (rices

are not a#undant

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

World Go Boom Regents

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World Go Boom Regents

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An economic meltdown in (hina would )lunge the

s stem into crisisA

Cal National Debate Institute 2009 A.Velto

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