Our planet's climate is changing

Have you heard about how the world's getting hotter? Some people say it is. Some say it isn't. Who's right? And does it matter? How will it affect you and your friends? How will it affect penguins? What can we do about it? These are some of the things I wanted to find out about.

Finding your way around my Climate Guide

ou may not want to loo! at all of this guide right away" so you can #ump to any part that interests you from the table at the bottom of this page. If you want to loo! through each part" starting at the beginning" clic! the green arrow below $forward to 'What is climate?'%. At the bottom of each new page" you'll find identical arrows which you clic! to go forward" bac! or return here.

use.

Our world is always changing. Look out your window long enough, and you might see the weather change. Look even longer, and you'll see the seasons change.

The Earth's climate is changing, too, but in ways that you can't easily see. The Earth is getting warmer because people are adding heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere, mainly by burning fossil fuels. These gases are called greenhouse gases. armer temperatures are causing other changes around the world, such as melting glaciers and stronger storms. These changes are happening because the Earth's air, water, and land are all linked to the climate. The Earth's climate has changed before, but this time is different. !eople are causing these changes, which are bigger and happening faster than any climate changes that modern society has ever seen before. "educing greenhouse gas emissions is the key to solving global climate change. # ma$or way these gases get into the atmosphere is when people burn coal, oil, and natural gas for energy. Everyone uses energy, and everyone can be part of the solution% &ut don't forget that climate change is already happening. and plan for the changes we know are coming. )lobal climate change will affect people and the environment in many ways. (ome of these impacts, like stronger hurricanes and severe heat waves, could be life threatening. Others, like spreading weeds, will be less serious. #nd some effects, like longer growing seasons for crops, might even be good% *owever, as the Earth keeps getting warmer, the negative effects are e'pected to outweigh the positive ones. The more we learn about how climate change will affect people and the environment, the more we can see why people need to take action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing climate change. steps to prepare for the changes we know are coming. Learn more about how climate change will affect people and the environment in the following ways+ e can also take e're seeing some of

the impacts now, and we'll e'perience more in the future. (o we need to prepare

CLIMATE CHANGE IN PERSPECTIVE, A TUTORIAL FOR POLICY MAKERS

Climate cha !e i" a ma#$% i""ue $& $u% time"' C$ ce% that le!i"lati$ a d %e!ulati$ ca i" a&&ecti ! e (i%$ me tal, e e%!), a d ec$ $mic *$lic) deci"i$ "' Ma ) *$liticia " a%e u de% the mi"ta+e ,elie& "i! i&ica tl) m$ld $u% climate t$ &$%e"tall a ) de(iati$ &%$m - $%mal. a d "a(e u" &%$m a *e%cei(ed c%i"i"' Thi" *$"t i" i te ded a" a *%ime% &$% *$liticia " "$ the) ca cut th%$u!h the h)*e a d c$m*a%e %eal $,"e%(ati$ al data a!ai "t the &la/ed m$del *%$! $"ticati$ "' The i &$%mati$ ,el$/ i" !lea ed &%$m the "cie ti&ic lite%atu%e' The data "h$/ that the cu%%e t /a%mi ! i" $t u u"ual, ,ut *a%t $& a atu%al c)cle0 that !%ee h$u"e !a"e", $the% tha /ate% (a*$%, a%e $t "i! i&ica t d%i(e%" $& climate0 that huma emi""i$ " $& ca%,$ di$1ide a%e i "i! i&ica t /he c$m*a%ed t$ atu%al emi""i$ " $& !%ee h$u"e !a"e"0 a d that ma ) *%edicti$ " ,) climate m$dele%" a d h)*ed ,) the media a%e "im*l) /%$ !' I "*ite $& all the "ca%) "ce a%i$" *u,li"hed, the%e i" $ *h)"ical e(ide ce "h$/i ! that huma ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ " ha(e a "i! i&ica t e&&ect $ !l$,al tem*e%atu%e' Ca%,$ di$1ide i" (ital t$ li&e $ ea%th a d cu%%e t atm$"*he%ic le(el" a%e #u"t ,a%el) a,$(e the mi imum %e2ui%ed &$% *la t li&e' P$litical "cheme" t$ cut !%ee h$u"e !a"e" /ill ha(e $ mea"u%a,le e&&ect $ tem*e%atu%e ,ut /ill !%eatl) ha%m the ec$ $m) ,) im*edi ! e e%!) *%$ducti$ a d u"e' The Current Warm Period Is Not Unusual The !%a*h ,el$/, ,a"ed $ %ec$ "t%ucti$ &%$m the !e$l$!ic a d hi"t$%ical %ec$%d", "h$/" that the%e ha(e ,ee "e(e%al /a%m3c$ld c)cle" "i ce the e d $& the la"t !lacial e*$ch' The tem*e%atu%e du%i ! the H$l$ce e Climate O*timum a d R$ma /a%m *e%i$d /a" 45F t$ 675F /a%me% tha t$da) i ma ) a%ea"' Thi" i" /a%me% tha the

e1t%eme "ce a%i$" $& the IPCC' Clea%l), cu%%e t tem*e%atu%e" a%e u *%ecede ted *e%i$d"' $% u u"uall) /a%m' Li&e a d ci(ili8ati$

eithe%

&l$u%i"hed du%i ! /a%m

L$$+i ! at the ,%$ade% !e$l$!ic %ec$%d, /e "ee that the%e i" little c$%%elati$ ,et/ee tem*e%atu%e a d ca%,$ di$1ide'

N$te that the%e /a" a ice a!e at the e d $& the O%d$(icia Pe%i$d /he atm$"*he%ic CO9 /a" a**%$1imatel) :,;77 **m, $% m$%e tha 66 time" the cu%%e t le(el' N$tice al"$ that the - $%mal. tem*e%atu%e $& thi" *la et i" 99C, $% a,$ut 6<F /a%me% tha it i" $/' Al G$%e li+ed t$ "h$/ a !%a*h $& the V$"t$+ ice c$%e" &%$m A ta%ctica /hich "h$/" a c$%%elati$ ,et/ee tem*e%atu%e" a d CO9'

=ut /hat G$%e did >t tell )$u i" that cha !e" i tem*e%atu%e *%eceded cha !e" i CO9 ,) <77 t$ 6,477 )ea%"'' That>" ,ecau"e tem*e%atu%e c$ t%$l" ca%,$ di$1ide "$lu,ilit) i the $cea "' N$tice that the tem*e%atu%e c)cle" ?the !lacial e*$ch"@ $ccu% i $& the a**%$1imatel) 677,777A)ea% i te%(al"' Thi" c$i cide" /ith the *%ece""i$ CO9 c)cle thi" /a) i& it /e%e the d%i(e% %athe% tha tem*e%atu%eB@ Why the Climate Models Are Wrong The IPCC "a)" that /a%mi ! /ill *%$duce m$%e /ate% (a*$% /hich /ill e ha ce !%ee h$u"e /a%mi !, a *$"iti(e &eed,ac+' All thei% climate m$del" a%e ,a"ed $ thi" a""um*ti$ ' S$u d" %ea"$ a,le e1ce*t i the %eal /$%ld, it d$e" >t ha**e ' I c%ea"ed /ate% (a*$% *%$duce" m$%e cl$ud" /hich ,l$c+ the "u the%e,) i duci ! c$$li !, a e!ati(e &eed,ac+' F$% a m$%e detailed e1*la ati$ "ee m) a%ticle -Ca%,$ di$1ide a d the !%ee h$u"e e&&ect'. That a%ticle al"$ "h$/" /h) )$u% ca%,$ &$$t*%i t d$e" >t matte% a d /h) !$(e% me t *$lic) t$ %educe CO9 emi""i$ " /ill ,e i e&&ecti(e' Acc$%di ! t$ climate m$del", the %ate $& /a%mi ! "h$uld i c%ea"e ,) 977A477C /ith

Ea%th>" elli*tical $%,it a%$u d the Su ' ?Ca )$u thi + $& a )thi ! that /$uld ma+e

altitude i the t%$*ic", *ea+i ! at a%$u d 67 +il$mete%" D a cha%acte%i"tic -&i !e%*%i t. &$% !%ee h$u"e /a%mi !' H$/e(e%, mea"u%eme t" ,) /eathe% ,all$$ " a d "atellite" "h$/ the $**$"ite %e"ultE $ i c%ea"i ! tem*e%atu%e t%e d /ith altitude' I $the% /$%d", the m$delA*%edicted -&i !e%*%i t. $& a th%$*$!e ic, !%ee h$u"e /a%mi ! i" a,"e t i atu%e' The c$m*ute%A*%edicted "i! atu%e $& !%ee h$u"e /a%mi ! t%e d" "h$uld l$$+ li+e the !%a*h $ the le&t ,el$/, ,ut acc$%di ! t$ mea"u%eme t" &%$m "atellite" a d %adi$"$ de", the actual tem*e%atu%e t%e d i" a" de*icted i the !%a*h $ the %i!ht'

The m$del" a%e dem$ "t%a,l) /%$ ! a" "h$/ ,) F%' R$) S*e ce% i hi" c$m*a%i"$ $& G4 m$del %e"ult" (e%"u" %ealit), "ee hi" !%a*h he%e a d ,el$/'

The atm$"*he%e i"

$t "tatic0 /e ha(e /eathe% /hich te d" t$ di""i*ate heat i t$

"*ace' Acc$%di ! t$ %eal /$%ld mea"u%eme t", the e!ati(e &eed,ac+" $(e%/helm the the$%etical *$"iti(e &eed,ac+ *$"ited ,) the IPCC' The !%ee h$u"e m$del i" a "im*li&ied "t$%) that hel*" e1*lai h$/ $u% atm$"*he%e /$%+"' H$/e(e%, the %eal /$%ld i" (e%) c$m*licated a d "till $t &ull) u de%"t$$d' E(e !l$,al /a%mi ! ala%mi"t Hame" Ha "e , &$%me%l) head $& NASA>" G$dda%d I "titute &$% S*ace Studie", had thi" t$ "a)E -The &$%ci !" that d%i(e l$ !Ate%m climate cha !e a%e $t + $/ /ith a accu%ac) "u&&icie t t$ de&i e &utu%e climate cha !e'. I Hame" Ha "e , -Climate &$%ci !" i 69G;<, Oct$,e% 9G, 6JJ<' the I du"t%ial e%a., PNAS, V$l' J;, I""ue 99, 69G;4A

A d e(e

the IPCC $ ce admitted, -I

climate %e"ea%ch a d m$deli !, /e "h$uld

%ec$! i8e that /e a%e deali ! /ith a c$u*led $ Ali ea% cha$tic ")"tem, a d the%e&$%e that the *%edicti$ $& a "*eci&ic &utu%e climate "tate i" $t *$""i,le'. I Fi al cha*te%, F%a&t TAR 9777 ?Thi%d A""e""me t Re*$%t@, IPCC' I& all that /e%e >t e $u!h, a %ece t "tud) *u,li"hed ,) the Ame%ica Mete$%$l$!ical S$ciet) ?he%e@ &$u d that i di(idual climate m$del" *%$duced di&&e%e t %e"ult" /he %u $ di&&e%e t c$m*ute%", e(e th$u!h the m$del" c$ tai ed the "ame c$di ! a d i *ut data' A d /e ,a"e e1*e "i(e *$lic) deci"i$ " $ thi"B Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases Is Insignificant: Huma ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ " a%e 4C t$ ;C $& t$tal ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ " i t$ the atm$"*he%e, a d a,$ut J<C $& all ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ " a%e %ea,"$%,ed th%$u!h the ca%,$ c)cle' htt*E33///'eia'!$(3$ia&36K7;3a%chi(e3!!7:%*t3*d&3t,l4'*d&' U"i ! data &%$m the Fe*a%tme t $& E e%!) a d the IPCC /e ca calculate the im*act $& $u% ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ "' The %e"ult" $& that calculati$ "h$/" that i& /e "t$**ed all U'S' emi""i$ " it c$uld the$%eticall) *%e(e t a tem*e%atu%e %i"e $& 7'774C *e% )ea%' I& e(e%) c$u t%) t$tall) "t$**ed huma emi""i$ ", /e mi!ht &$%e"tall 7'76C $& /a%mi !' F$% the de%i(ati$ $& the"e um,e%", "ee m) *$"t -Y$u% ca%,$ &$$t*%i t d$e" >t matte%'. Alth$u!h Ea%th>" atm$"*he%e d$e" ha(e a -!%ee h$u"e e&&ect. a d ca%,$ di$1ide $

d$e" ha(e a limited h)*$thetical ca*acit) t$ /a%m the atm$"*he%e, the%e i" "i! i&ica t /a%mi !'

*h)"ical e(ide ce "h$/i ! that huma ca%,$ di$1ide emi""i$ " actuall) *%$duce a )

The ma#$% !%ee h$u"e !a" i" /ate% (a*$% /hich acc$u t" &$% a,$ut JGC $& the /a%mi ! e&&ect' The $the% 4C i" att%i,uted t$ ca%,$ di$1ide, metha e, CFC" etc' Si ce ca%,$ di$1ide *%$duce" le"" tha 4C $& the !%ee h$u"e e&&ect, a d huma "

*%$duce le"" tha

;C $& the ca%,$

di$1ide, huma

ca%,$

di$1ide emi""i$ "

%e*%e"e t a,$ut $ e te th $& $ e *e%ce t $& the t$tal !%ee h$u"e e&&ect a d a%e the%e&$%e i "i! i&ica t' The un Is the !eal Climate "ri#er The %eal d%i(e%" $& climate a%e the Su >" i "$lati$ ?li!ht a d heat@, it" ma! etic &lu1, a d the %elati(e *$"iti$ a d $%ie tati$ $& the Ea%th t$ the Su ' The%e a%e th%ee mai *$"iti$ al (a%iati$ " $& the Ea%th a d Su , called Mila +$(itch c)cle"E O%,ital Ecce t%icit), A1ial O,li2uit) ?tilt@, a d P%ece""i$ $& the E2ui $1e"' The"e c)cle" a&&ect the am$u t a d l$cati$ $& "u li!ht im*i !i ! $ the ea%th' The (a%iati$ " i the Su >" ma! etic &lu1 c$ t%$l" the am$u t $& c$"mic %a)" im*i !i ! $ the atm$"*he%e' C$"mic %a)" i$ i8e the atm$"*he%e a d the i$ " &$%m uclei &$% cl$ud &$%mati$ ' Cl$ud c$(e% ha" a !%eat e&&ect $ !l$,al tem*e%atu%e, ,ut thi" a%ea i" "till *$$%l) u de%"t$$d a d $t add%e""ed i climate m$del"' hould We $e Concerned %ith ea &e#el !ise' Climate ala%mi"t" *ut &$%th "ca%) "ce a%i$" "a)i ! that !l$,al /a%mi ! i" cau"i ! u *%ecede ted "ea le(el %i"e a d the %i"e i" accele%ati !' Lell, d$ >t "ell )$u% ,eachA &%$ t *%$*e%t) )et' Si ce the e d $& the la"t !lacial e*$ch 6;,777 )ea%" a!$, "ea le(el ha" %i"e 697 mete%", a,$ut $ e mete% *e% ce tu%) a" /e e te%ed the cu%%e t )' Su%el) i te%!lacial *e%i$d' =ut "i ce a,$ut G,777 )ea%" a!$, "ea le(el %i"e ha" !%eatl) "l$/ed' NOAA *ut" $%mal %i"e at 6 t$ 4mm *e% )ea%, a,$ut the thic+ e"" $& a *e /e ca deal /ith that' =a"ed $ !e$l$!ic e(ide ce, the%e ha" ,ee $ accele%ati$ $& "ea le(el %i"e i

%e"*$ "e t$ i c%ea"ed tem*e%atu%e $% CO9 le(el" &$% the la"t K,777 )ea%"' A $the% "tud) ,a"ed $ /$%ld/ide c$a"tal tidal !au!e %ec$%d", "h$/" that the %ate $& "ea le(el

%i"e i" dec%ea"i !' S*eci&icall), the mea %ate $& !l$,al "ea le(el %i"e /a" -la%!e% i the ea%l) *a%t $& the 97th ce tu%) ?9'74 M 7'4; mm3)% 6J7:A6J;4@, i c$m*a%i"$ /ith the latte% *a%t ?6':; M 7'4: mm3)% 6J;:A9774@'. The $the% thi ! )$u "h$uld %eali8e a,$ut the %ate $& "ea le(el %i"e i" that it i" c)clical' The %ate accele%ate" a d decele%ate" $ a**%$1imatel) 66A)ea% c)cle" /hich "u!!e"t" that it i" d%i(e ,) "$la% (a%iati$ ' ?S$u%ceE H$l!ate, S'H' 977G' O the decadal %ate" $& "ea le(el cha !e du%i ! the t/e tieth ce tu%)' Ge$*h)"ical Re"ea%ch Lette%" 4:E 67'679J3977KGL79<:J9@ (cean Acidification Le $&te hea% that i c%ea"i ! ca%,$ di$1ide i the atm$"*he%e /ill ma+e the $cea " t$$ acidic a d di""$l(e $% $the%/i"e ha%m ca%,$ ateA"helled ma%i e &au a' The"e /%ite%" $% %e*$%te%" "eem i! $%a t $& the &act that ma%i e &au a e($l(ed /he the atm$"*he%ic CO9 c$ ce t%ati$ /a" m$%e tha 67 time" hi!he% tha the cu%%e t le(el' It ha" ,ee e"timated that cu%%e t $cea *H i" 7'6 *H u it le"" al+ali e tha it /a" i *%eAi du"t%ial time, a d "$me climate m$del" *%edict a &u%the% dec%ea"e $& 7'G *H u it" ,) 9477' H$/e(e%, *%$1) %ec$ "t%ucti$ " $& $cea acidit), ,a"ed $ &$""il a d m$de% c$%al", "h$/ that $cea *H ha" $"cillated ,et/ee *H $& G'J6 a d <'9J du%i ! the *a"t G,777 )ea%"' That i" /ithi the al+ali e %a !e ? eut%al i" G@' That c)clic (a%iati$ i" ea%l) &$u% time" la%!e% tha the 7'6 dec%ea"e ala%mi"t" a%e /hi i ! a,$ut, a d e(e i& the m$del *%edicted dec%ea"e $& 7'G u it" $ccu%", the /ate% /ill "till ,e al+ali e' Ma ) "tudie" "h$/ that c$%al" a d $the% ma%i e li&e a%e a,le t$ ada*t t$ the cha !i ! *H' The Ce te% &$% the Stud) $& Ca%,$ Fi$1ide a d Gl$,al Cha !e ha" ma ) a%ticle" a d a la%!e data,a"e add%e""i ! thi" i""ue he%e' The) c$ clude the%e i" $ cau"e &$% ala%m' )*treme Weather

St$%m", d%$u!ht", heat /a(e", hu%%ica e" etc' ha**e , a d alth$u!h ala%mi"t" "a) that !l$,al /a%mi ! i" cau"i ! m$%e $& e(e%)thi !, the %eal data actuall) "h$/" eithe% a decli e $% $ t%e d' See the !%a*h" $ A th$ ) Latt"> e1t%eme /eathe% *a!e he%e' Al"$ l$$+ at hi" U'S' climate hi"t$%) *a!e he%e' Problems %ith urface Tem+erature "ata Le a%e al/a)" hea%i ! $% %eadi ! *%$clamati$ " that /e #u"t had the h$tte"t /ee+, m$ th, )ea% "i ceN?it /a" c$$le%@' O&&icial "u%&ace tem*e%atu%e %ec$%d" ha(e ,ee c$%%u*ted ,) deli,e%ate ma i*ulati$ , ,) "iti ! de&icie cie", a d ,) i! $%i ! i c$ (e ie t data' Mete$%$l$!i"t A th$ ) Latt" d$cume t" ma ) $& the"e *%$,lem" i a *a*e% *u,li"hed la"t )ea%' F$% a i t%$ducti$ a d li +" t$ the *a*e% "ee htt*E33/att"u*/iththat'c$m3976937G39J3*%e""A%elea"eA93 I /ill !i(e a l$cal e1am*le $& tem*e%atu%e" ,ei ! i &lue ced ,) the U%,a Heat I"la d e&&ect ?UHI@' The !%a*h ,el$/ "h$/" the tem*e%atu%e %ec$%d" $& Tuc"$ a d T$m,"t$ e &%$m a,$ut 6<<; t$ 977;' =$th !%a*h" "h$/ the /a%mi ! &%$m the -Little Ice A!e. /hich e ded a,$ut 6<;7' =ut the tem*e%atu%e %ec$%d i" (e%) di&&e%e t "i ce a,$ut 6J77' Tuc"$ i Citie"B "h$/" /a%mi ! &%$m the UHI, ,ut T$m,"t$ e "h$/" a &ai%l) c$ "ta t tem*e%atu%e' F$e" the ca%,$ di$1ide i duced !%ee h$u"e e&&ect /$%+ $ l)

Conclusion The ,a"ic c$ clu"i$ &%$m the"e data i" that ca%,$ di$1ide ha" little e&&ect $ climate a d all attem*t" t$ c$ t%$l ca%,$ di$1ide /ill ,e a &utile e1e%ci"e i climate c$ t%$l' All the di%e *%edicti$ " a%e ,a"ed $ *ha t$m me ace' N$ %e"ea%che%" $% the IPCC ha(e *%e"e ted a ) *h)"ical $% $,"e%(ati$ al e(ide ce that CO9 i" a "i! i&ica t d%i(e% $& tem*e%atu%e' Climate m$del" a%e c$m*le1 mathematical c$ "t%uct"' =ut the atm$"*he%e i" e(e m$%e c$m*le1, "$ m$dele%" mu"t i! $%e ma ) (a%ia,le" "uch a" Su AEa%th %elati$ "hi*" a d cl$ud", i &a($% $& a &e/ ,a"ic *a%amete%"' The &u dame tal a""um*ti$ $& climate m$del" i" that cha !e" i CO9 c$ ce t%ati$ d%i(e tem*e%atu%e cha !e, ,ut e(ide ce &%$m !e$l$!) a d a"t%$ $m) "h$/ that the %elati$ "hi* i" #u"t the $**$"ite, tem*e%atu%e cha !e d%i(e" CO9 c$ ce t%ati$ ' -The /h$le aim $& *%actical *$litic" i" t$ +ee* the *$*ulace ala%med ?a d he ce clam$%$u" t$ ,e led t$ "a&et)@ ,) me aci ! it /ith a e dle"" "e%ie" $& h$,!$,li ", all $& them ima!i a%)'. D &la/ed c$m*ute% m$del"' Ca%,$ di$1ide i" a

Ou% climate i" cha !i !' Le a%e $t #u"t "eei ! !l$,al i c%ea"e" i ai% a d $cea tem*e%atu%e", /e a%e "eei ! cha !e" ac%$"" the U ited State"E e1te ded *e%i$d" $& u u"ual heat, a !%eate% um,e% $& hea(ie% d$/ *$u%", m$%e "e(e%e %e!i$ al d%$u!ht a d /ild&i%e" i *a%t" $& the Ame%ica Le"t, *e%ma&%$"t tha/i ! i Ala"+a, $cea acidi&icati$ , a d "eaAle(el %i"e th%eate i ! c$a"tal c$mmu itie"' At the "ame time, much $& $u% Nati$ >" i &%a"t%uctu%e ha" ,ee de"i! ed &$% the climate that /e ha(e had, a d $t the cha !i ! climate /e $/ a%e e1*e%ie ci ! a d ca e1*ect i the &utu%e' P%e"ide t O,ama ,elie(e" /e ha(e a m$%al $,li!ati$ t$ &utu%e !e e%ati$ " t$ lea(e them a *la et that i" $t *$lluted a d dama!ed' That>" /h), la"t )ea%, he lau ched a c$m*%ehe "i(e Climate Acti$ Pla t$ %educe the ca%,$ *$lluti$ that c$ t%i,ute" t$ climate cha !e, *%e*a%e &$% the im*act" $& a cha !i ! climate $ Ame%ica c$mmu itie" a d ,u"i e""e", a d lead i te% ati$ al e&&$%t" t$ add%e"" thi" !l$,al challe !e' E(e a" /e act t$ %educe ca%,$ *$lluti$ , /e + $/ "$me im*act" $& climate cha !e a%e al%ead) u a($ida,le' The Fede%al G$(e% me t ha" a $,li!ati$ t$ "u**$%t Ame%ica c$mmu itie" ,) *%$tecti ! c%itical i &%a"t%uctu%e a d atu%al %e"$u%ce", ad(a ci ! "cie ce that i &$%m" *la i ! a d i (e"tme t", e"ta,li"hi ! *$licie" that *%$m$te %e"ilie ce, a d e "u%i ! that Fede%al $*e%ati$ " a d &acilitie" c$ ti ue t$ *%$tect a d "e%(e citi8e " i a cha !i ! climate' The P%e"ide t>" Climate Acti$ Pla *%i$%iti8e" thi" /$%+ a d i te!%ate" c$ "ide%ati$ $& climate im*act" a d %i"+" i t$ Fede%al *%$!%am" "$ that /e a%e ma+i ! the ,e"t *$""i,le u"e $& $u% ta1*a)e% d$lla%"' I hi" =ud!et Re2ue"t &$% Fi"cal Yea% 976; ,ei ! t%a "mitted t$ C$ !%e"" t$da), P%e"ide t O,ama i" &$ll$/i ! th%$u!h $ th$"e c$mmitme t" a d ta+i ! a /ide %a !e $& "te*" t$ -u* $u% !ame. i *%$m$ti ! *%e*a%ed e"" &$%, a d %e"ilie ce a!ai "t, the im*act" $& climate cha !e' Thi" i clude" %$,u"t "u**$%t &$% State, l$cal, a d t%i,al *%e*a%ed e"" e&&$%t", a al)"i" $& (ul e%a,ilitie" $& c%itical i &%a"t%uctu%e, c%eati$ $& i ce ti(e" t$ add%e"" th$"e (ul e%a,ilitie", a d de(el$*me t a d di""emi ati$ $& ,ette% i &$%mati$ a d *la i ! t$$l"' The =ud!et Re2ue"t /ill c$ ti ue t$ "u**$%t *%$!%am" that *%$m$te climate *%e*a%ed e"" at the l$cal le(el' The Fe*a%tme t $& Health a d Huma Se%(ice" /ill "u**$%t *u,licAhealth $&&icial" /$%+i ! $ the challe !e" at the i te%&ace $& huma health a d climate' P%$!%am" at the Fe*a%tme t $& T%a "*$%tati$ /ill /$%+ /ith c$mmu itie" t$ mi imi8e the e&&ect" $& e1t%eme /eathe% a d climate cha !e $ c%itical t%a "*$%tati$ i &%a"t%uctu%e' The U'S' Fe*a%tme t $& A!%icultu%e a d the Fe*a%tme t $& the I te%i$% /ill *%$(ide !%a t" a d tech ical "u**$%t t$ *%$m$te /ate% c$ "e%(ati$ a d e&&icie c)' EPA a d $the% a!e cie" /ill c$ ti ue t$ *%$(ide tech ical a""i"ta ce a d &u di ! &$% "u"tai a,le c$mmu itie", a d the Fe*a%tme t $& the I te%i$% /ill "u**$%t e&&$%t" ,) t%i,al c$mmu itie" t$ e ha ce thei% $/ *%e*a%ed e""' Rec$! i8i ! the c$ ti ui ! eed &$% "$u d "cie ce t$ !uide $u% ati$ al e&&$%t", the =ud!et Re2ue"t al"$ i clude" m$%e tha O9'; ,illi$ &$% Fede%al %e"ea%ch t$ im*%$(e $u% u de%"ta di ! $& a d a,ilit) t$ *%edict a d %e"*$ d t$ !l$,al cha !e' Thi" /ill i clude a e1*a ded *%$!%am $& $cea acidi&icati$ %e"ea%ch t$ ,ette% u de%"ta d cha !e" t$ $u% ma%i e

%e"$u%ce"' The =ud!et Re2ue"t al"$ "u**$%t" the de(el$*me t $& the Climate Re"ilie ce T$$l+it a d Climate Fata I itiati(e, called &$% i the P%e"ide t>" Climate Acti$ Pla , t$ ma+e Fede%all) "u**$%ted "cie ce e(e m$%e acce""i,le t$ th$"e /h$ eed it $ the !%$u d' I %e"*$ "e t$ dema d &%$m ac%$"" the c$u t%) D i cludi ! &%$m the P%e"ide t>" e/ Ta"+ F$%ce $& !$(e% $%", ma)$%", t%i,al leade%" a d $the% l$cal $&&icial" /h$ ha(e ,ee ad(i"i ! the Admi i"t%ati$ $ h$/ t$ hel* them *%$tect c$mmu itie" ac%$"" the Nati$ &%$m climate im*act" D the =ud!et al"$ *%$*$"e" a e/ O6 ,illi$ Climate Re"ilie ce Fu d /ithi a &ull) *aid &$% O;K ,illi$ O**$%tu it), G%$/th, a d Secu%it) I itiati(e D "*lit e(e l) ,et/ee de&e "e a d $ Ade&e "e *%i$%itie" D /hich *%e"e t" additi$ al i (e"tme t" i c%itical a%ea", "uch a" educati$ , %e"ea%ch, ma u&actu%i !, a d "ecu%it)' The Climate Re"ilie ce Fu d e1*a d" $ e1i"ti ! climateAcha !e *%e*a%ed e"" *%$!%am" t$ e "u%e /e a%e d$i ! e(e%)thi ! /e ca t$ "u**$%t the "a&et) a d "ecu%it) $& $u% c$mmu itie" a d %e"$u%ce"' I *a%ticula%, the Fu d /ill au!me t ada*tati$ *la i ! ,) State", t%i,e", a d l$cal c$mmu itie" a d hel* them *%e*a%e &$% e(e t" "uch a" /ild&i%e, &l$$d", $% $the% di"a"te%" that c$uld ,e e1ace%,ated ,) climate cha !e' F$% e1am*le, u de% the Fu d, the Fede%al Eme%!e c) Ma a!eme t A!e c) /ill %ecei(e O:77 milli$ t$ "u**$%t additi$ al ha8a%dAmiti!ati$ a d *%e*a%ed e""Aa""i"ta ce e&&$%t", /hile the Fe*a%tme t $& the I te%i$% a d the Nati$ al Ocea ic a d Atm$"*he%ic Admi i"t%ati$ /ill *%$(ide !%a t" t$ im*%$(e c$a"tal %e"ilie ce t$ "e(e%e /eathe% e(e t" a d cha !i ! $cea c$ diti$ "' The E (i%$ me tal P%$tecti$ A!e c) /ill *%$(ide State !%a t" t$ "u"tai $% im*%$(e /ate% 2ualit) th%$u!h c$a"tal a d /etla d" *%$tecti$ &%$m e%$"i$ a d t$ %educe a d a,"$%, "t$%m/ate% &l$/, /hile U'S' Fe*a%tme t $& A!%icultu%e &u di ! /ill "u**$%t State a d c$mmu it) e&&$%t" t$ "t%e !the ,uildi !Ac$de %e2ui%eme t" t$ add%e"" the %i"+ $& /ild&i%e"' The Fu d /ill al"$ hel* u" ,ette% u de%"ta d a d *%e*a%e &$% climate cha !e ,) i (e"ti ! i %e"ea%ch a d u l$c+i ! data a d i &$%mati$ , i cludi ! e/ "eaAle(el %i"e a al)"e" a d "ect$%A"*eci&ic data t$ i &$%m t%a "*$%tati$ *%$#ect" a d *u,licAhealth acti(itie"' Fi all), ,uildi ! $ the /$%+ d$ e t$ hel* c$mmu itie" %ec$(e% &%$m Su*e%"t$%m Sa d), the Climate Re"ilie ce Fu d /ill %am* u* "u**$%t &$% ,%ea+th%$u!h tech $l$!ie" a d %e"ilie t i &%a"t%uctu%e' It /ill e1*a d %e"ea%ch a d de(el$*me t $ di"t%i,uted %e e/a,le !e e%ati$ a d mic%$!%id", /hich ca hel* c$mmu itie" +ee* the li!ht" $ du%i ! /eathe% di"a"te%"' It /ill al"$ "u**$%t a (a%iet) $& -challe !e". t$ the *%i(ate "ect$% t$ c$me u* /ith i $(ati(e /a)" t$ ,uild i &%a"t%uctu%e that i" %e"*$ "i(e t$ &utu%e climate c$ diti$ "' F$% e1am*le, it /ill "u**$%t the =u%eau $& Reclamati$ >" e/ Late% Challe !e S$luti$ " *%$!%am I a *a)A&$%A "ucce"", PAP%i8eAchalle !e t$ e c$u%a!e i du"t%)Acha !i ! ad(a ceme t" i /ate%At%eatme t tech $l$!ie"' The Fu d al"$ i clude" "u**$%t &$% de(el$*i ! ,uildi ! c$de" &$% ,$th im*%$(ed %e"ilie ce a d e e%!) e&&icie c)' A d it /ill al"$ hel* a**%$1imatel) K,777 m$%e c$mmu itie" t$ mai tai , %e"t$%e a d im*%$(e u%,a &$%e"t" a d t%ee ca $*) t$ miti!ate heat i"la d" a d $the% climate im*act"' P%e*a%i ! &$% the im*act" $& climate cha !e /ill ,e a &u dame tal challe !e $(e% the c$mi ! decade" &$% e(e%) c$mmu it), ec$ $mic "ect$%, a d le(el $& !$(e% me t i Ame%ica' Th%$u!h hi" Climate Acti$ Pla a d hi" =ud!et Re2ue"t &$% Fi"cal Yea% 976;, P%e"ide t O,ama ha" c$mmitted t$ ma+i ! ati$ al climate *%e*a%ed e"" a %ealit)' Michael Boots is Acting Chair of the Council on Environmental Quality;

Dr. John P. Holdren is Assistant to the President for cience and !echnology and Director of the "ffice of cience # !echnology Policy; and $isa Monaco is Assistant to the President for Homeland ecurity and Counterterrorism and De%uty &ational ecurity Advisor.

Climate change is a major issue of our times. Concern is affecting environmental, energy, and economic policy decisions. Many politicians are under the mistaken belief that legislation and regulation can significantly mold our climate to forestall any deviation from normal and save us from a perceived crisis. This post is intended as a primer for politicians so they can cut through the hype and compare real observational data against the flawed model prognostications. The information below is gleaned from the scientific literature. The data show that the current warming is not unusual, but part of a natural cycle; that greenhouse gases, other than water vapor, are not significant drivers of climate; that human emissions of carbon dioxide are insignificant when compared to natural emissions of greenhouse gases; and that many predictions by climate modelers and hyped by the media are simply wrong. In spite of all the scary scenarios published, there is no physical evidence showing that human carbon dioxide emissions have a significant effect on global temperature. Carbon dioxide is vital to life on earth and current atmospheric levels are just barely above the minimum required for plant life. Political schemes to cut greenhouse gases will have no measurable effect on temperature but will greatly harm the economy by impeding energy production and use. The Current Warm Period Is Not Unusual The graph below, based on reconstruction from the geologic and historical records, shows that there have been several warm/cold cycles since the end of the last glacial epoch. The temperature during the Holocene Climate Optimum and Roman warm period was 3F to 10F warmer than today in many areas. This is warmer than the extreme scenarios of the IPCC. Clearly, current temperatures are neither unprecedented nor unusually warm. Life and civilization flourished during warm periods.

Looking at the broader geologic record, we see that there is little correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide.

Note that there was an ice age at the end of the Ordovician Period when atmospheric CO2 was approximately 4,500 ppm, or more than 11 times the current level. Notice

also that the normal temperature of this planet is 22C, or about 18F warmer than it is now. Al Gore liked to show a graph of the Vostok ice cores from Antarctica which shows a correlation between temperatures and CO2.

But what Gore didnt tell you is that changes in temperature preceded changes in CO2 by 800 to 1,300 years.. Thats because temperature controls carbon dioxide solubility in the oceans. Notice that the temperature cycles (the glacial epochs) occur in approximately 100,000-year intervals. This coincides with the precession of the Earths elliptical orbit around the Sun. (Can you think of anything that would make CO2 cycle this way if it were the driver rather than temperature?) Why the Climate Models Are Wrong The IPCC says that warming will produce more water vapor which will enhance greenhouse warming, a positive feedback. All their climate models are based on this assumption. Sounds reasonable except in the real world, it doesnt happen. Increased water vapor produces more clouds which block the sun thereby inducing cooling, a negative feedback. For a more detailed explanation see my article Carbon dioxide and the greenhouse effect. That article also shows why your carbon footprint doesnt matter and why government policy to reduce CO2 emissions will be ineffective. According to climate models, the rate of warming should increase by 200-300% with

altitude in the tropics, peaking at around 10 kilometers a characteristic fingerprint for greenhouse warming. However, measurements by weather balloons and satellites show the opposite result: no increasing temperature trend with altitude. In other words, the model-predicted fingerprint of anthropogenic, greenhouse warming is absent in nature. The computer-predicted signature of greenhouse warming trends should look like the graph on the left below, but according to measurements from satellites and radiosondes, the actual temperature trend is as depicted in the graph on the right.

The models are demonstrably wrong as shown by Dr. Roy Spencer in his comparison of 73 model results versus reality, see his graph here and below.

The atmosphere is not static; we have weather which tends to dissipate heat into space. According to real world measurements, the negative feedbacks overwhelm the theoretical positive feedback posited by the IPCC. The greenhouse model is a simplified story that helps explain how our atmosphere works. However, the real world is very complicated and still not fully understood. Even global warming alarmist James Hansen, formerly head of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies, had this to say: The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. James Hansen, Climate forcings in the Industrial era, PNAS, Vol. 95, Issue 22, 1275312758, October 27, 1998. And even the IPCC once admitted, In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the prediction of a specific future climate state is not possible. Final chapter, Draft TAR 2000 (Third Assessment Report), IPCC.

If all that werent enough, a recent study published by the American Meteorological Society (here) found that individual climate models produced different results when run on different computers, even though the models contained the same coding and input data. And we base expensive policy decisions on this? Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases Is Insignificant: Human carbon dioxide emissions are 3% to 5% of total carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, and about 98% of all carbon dioxide emissions are reabsorbed through the carbon cycle. http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/archive/gg04rpt/pdf/tbl3.pdf. Using data from the Department of Energy and the IPCC we can calculate the impact of our carbon dioxide emissions. The results of that calculation shows that if we stopped all U.S. emissions it could theoretically prevent a temperature rise of 0.003C per year. If every country totally stopped human emissions, we might forestall 0.01C of warming. For the derivation of these numbers, see my post Your carbon footprint doesnt matter. Although Earths atmosphere does have a greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide does have a limited hypothetical capacity to warm the atmosphere, there is no physical evidence showing that human carbon dioxide emissions actually produce any significant warming. The major greenhouse gas is water vapor which accounts for about 97% of the warming effect. The other 3% is attributed to carbon dioxide, methane, CFCs etc. Since carbon dioxide produces less than 3% of the greenhouse effect, and humans produce less than 5% of the carbon dioxide, human carbon dioxide emissions represent about one tenth of one percent of the total greenhouse effect and are therefore insignificant. The Sun Is the Real Climate Driver The real drivers of climate are the Suns insolation (light and heat), its magnetic flux, and the relative position and orientation of the Earth to the Sun. There are three main positional variations of the Earth and Sun, called Milankovitch cycles: Orbital Eccentricity, Axial Obliquity (tilt), and Precession of the Equinoxes. These cycles affect the amount and location of sunlight impinging on the earth.

The variations in the Suns magnetic flux controls the amount of cosmic rays impinging on the atmosphere. Cosmic rays ionize the atmosphere and the ions form nuclei for cloud formation. Cloud cover has a great effect on global temperature, but this area is still poorly understood and not addressed in climate models. Should We Be Concerned with Sea Level Rise? Climate alarmists put forth scary scenarios saying that global warming is causing unprecedented sea level rise and the rise is accelerating. Well, dont sell your beachfront property yet. Since the end of the last glacial epoch 15,000 years ago, sea level has risen 120 meters, about one meter per century as we entered the current interglacial period. But since about 7,000 years ago, sea level rise has greatly slowed. NOAA puts normal rise at 1 to 3mm per year, about the thickness of a penny. Surely we can deal with that. Based on geologic evidence, there has been no acceleration of sea level rise in response to increased temperature or CO2 levels for the last 6,000 years. Another study based on worldwide coastal tidal gauge records, shows that the rate of sea level rise is decreasing. Specifically, the mean rate of global sea level rise was larger in the early part of the 20th century (2.03 0.35 mm/yr 1904-1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 0.34 mm/yr 1954-2003). The other thing you should realize about the rate of sea level rise is that it is cyclical. The rate accelerates and decelerates on approximately 11-year cycles which suggests that it is driven by solar variation. (Source: Holgate, S.J. 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 34: 10.1029/2006GL028492) Ocean Acidification We often hear that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will make the oceans too acidic and dissolve or otherwise harm carbonate-shelled marine fauna. These writers or reporters seem ignorant of the fact that marine fauna evolved when the atmospheric CO2 concentration was more than 10 times higher than the current level. It has been estimated that current ocean pH is 0.1 pH unit less alkaline than it was in pre-industrial time, and some climate models predict a further decrease of 0.7 pH units by 2300. However, proxy reconstructions of ocean acidity, based on fossil and modern

corals, show that ocean pH has oscillated between pH of 7.91 and 8.29 during the past 7,000 years. That is within the alkaline range (neutral is 7). That cyclic variation is nearly four times larger than the 0.1 decrease alarmists are whining about, and even if the model predicted decrease of 0.7 units occurs, the water will still be alkaline. Many studies show that corals and other marine life are able to adapt to the changing pH. The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has many articles and a large database addressing this issue here. They conclude there is no cause for alarm. Extreme Weather Storms, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes etc. happen, and although alarmists say that global warming is causing more of everything, the real data actually shows either a decline or no trend. See the graphs on Anthony Watts extreme weather page here. Also look at his U.S. climate history page here. Problems with Surface Temperature Data We are always hearing or reading proclamations that we just had the hottest week, month, year since(it was cooler). Official surface temperature records have been corrupted by deliberate manipulation, by siting deficiencies, and by ignoring inconvenient data. Meteorologist Anthony Watts documents many of these problems in a paper published last year. For an introduction and links to the paper seehttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/ I will give a local example of temperatures being influenced by the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI). The graph below shows the temperature records of Tucson and Tombstone from about 1885 to 2005. Both graphs show the warming from the Little Ice Age which ended about 1850. But the temperature record is very different since about 1900. Tucson shows warming from the UHI, but Tombstone shows a fairly constant temperature. Does the carbon dioxide induced greenhouse effect work only in Cities?

Conclusion The basic conclusion from these data is that carbon dioxide has little effect on climate and all attempts to control carbon dioxide will be a futile exercise in climate control. All the dire predictions are based on flawed computer models. Carbon dioxide is a phantom menace. No researchers nor the IPCC have presented any physical or observational evidence that CO2 is a significant driver of temperature. Climate models are complex mathematical constructs. But the atmosphere is even more complex, so modelers must ignore many variables such as Sun-Earth relationships and clouds, in favor of a few basic parameters. The fundamental assumption of climate models is that changes in CO2 concentration drive temperature change, but evidence from geology and astronomy show that the relationship is just the opposite, temperature change drives CO2 concentration. The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. H. L. Mencken