Environmental Management DOI 10.

1007/s00267-014-0250-x

A Framework to Predict the Impacts of Shale Gas Infrastructures on the Forest Fragmentation of an Agroforest Region
ronique Babin-Roussel Alexandre Racicot Ve bastien Joly Jean-Franc ois Dauphinais Jean-Se l Claude Lavoie Pascal Noe

Received: 24 August 2013 / Accepted: 10 February 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Abstract We propose a framework to facilitate the evaluation of the impacts of shale gas infrastructures (well pads, roads, and pipelines) on land cover features, especially with regards to forest fragmentation. We used a geographic information system and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA (United States) experience, but adapted to a region of QC (Canada) with an already fragmented forest cover and a high gas potential. The scenario with the greatest impact results from development limited by regulatory constraints only, with no access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road network. The scenario with the lowest impact additionally integrates ecological constraints (deer yards, maple woodlots, and wetlands). Overall the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with \1 % of the forest cover lost in each case. However, large areas of core forests would be lost in both scenarios and the number of forest patches would increase by 1321 % due to fragmentation. The pipeline network would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads. Using data acquired since the beginning of the shale gas industry, we show that it is possible, within a reasonable time frame, to produce a robust assessment of the impacts of shale gas extraction. The framework we propose could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions.

Keywords Core forest Fragmentation Pipeline Road Shale gas Utica shale

Introduction Recent technological developments in the hydraulic fracturing of formerly unreachable geological formations have greatly contributed to the expansion of the shale gas industry over the last decade. Hydraulic fracturing is now widely used in countries with shale gas resources, such as China (International Energy Agency 2011), Mexico (Economist Intelligence Unit 2011), Poland (Johnson and Boersma 2012), and the United States (Schumann and Vossoughi 2012). In the United States, natural gas production increased tenfold from 2000 to 2010; in 2011, shale gas represented 34 % of the domestic gas production and provided 600,000 direct and indirect jobs (Information Handling Services Global Insight 2011). The state of PA has delivered more than 9,600 well permits for extracting shale gas (Department of Environmental Protection 2013). The pace of shale gas exploitation in this state has raised concerns regarding the environmental impacts associated with drilling. The debate on whether shale gas extraction affects water quality is ongoing, and conicting evidence cannot be easily resolved, because baseline conditions are unknown or have been affected by other mining activities (Vidic et al. 2013). Moreover, potential problems associated with the pollution of surface water by gas have largely been overlooked, complicating the assessment (Entrekin et al. 2011; Olmstead et al. 2013). A recent review indicated that direct groundwater pollution resulting from the injection of hydraulic fracturing chemicals are extremely rare events; most of the time, gas leakage cases are minor and rapidly

All authors contributed equally to this work. A. Racicot V. Babin-Roussel J.-F. Dauphinais J.-S. Joly l C. Lavoie (&) P. Noe cole supe rieure dame nagement du territoire et de E veloppement re gional, Universite Laval, Quebec City, de QC G1A 0V6, Canada e-mail: claude.lavoie@esad.ulaval.ca

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remedied (Vidic et al. 2013). However, other studies have shown that methane concentrations can be 617 times higher in water wells located \1 km from active gas drilling and extraction areas than in wells from non-active areas (Osborn et al. 2011; Jackson et al. 2013). Furthermore, methane emissions to the atmosphere from gas infrastructures could be at least 30 % higher for hydraulically fractured wells than for conventional wells (Howarth et al. 2011; Alvarez et al. 2012). The shale gas industry can also have other impacts on the land cover of the regions subject to large-scale extraction activities. Agricultural and forest lands are vulnerable to fragmentation from the construction of well pads and other infrastructures, such as access roads and pipelines (Kiviat 2013). Although oil wells and their access roads are known to strongly contribute to land cover fragmentation (Bi et al. 2011), there are scant data for shale gas. To our knowledge, the only retrospective assessment on this subject was conducted in PA where shale gas exploitation has created 649 km of new roads; and as of June 2011, destroyed 695 ha of core forest. An additional 1,078 ha of agricultural land and 896 ha of forest could soon be eliminated if all pads with permits are developed (Drohan et al. 2012). A geological formation with shale gas, the Utica Shale, is present in the province of QC (Canada); and covers about 10,000 km2, essentially under the St. Lawrence River Lowlands. For the moment, the development of the shale gas industry in QC is slow: to date, only 112 ` re des extraction permits have been delivered (Ministe bec 2012a) Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Que and 28 wells have been drilled, essentially on the south shore of the St. Lawrence River between Montreal and ` re des Ressources naturelles et de la Quebec City (Ministe bec 2011a). Shale gas extraction has been Faune du Que delayed by a regulatory moratorium imposed in response to the concerns of local communities fearing groundwater contamination. In 2011, the Government of QC launched a strategic environmental assessment to evaluate the various risks associated with shale gas extraction (Comite de levaluation environnementale strategique sur le gaz de schiste 2012a). This assessment provided scientists the opportunity to thoroughly evaluate the potential consequences of shale gas exploitation; but to date, planned studies have focused almost exclusively on water quality. The PA experience has nevertheless shown that the impacts of shale gas extraction on land cover features may also be important (Drohan et al. 2012). Some regions could lose wildlife habitats and wetlands of prime signicance. Road and pipeline networks could also contribute to the spread of invasive species (Jodoin et al. 2008; Joly et al. 2011; Meunier and Lavoie 2012; Kiviat 2013).

In the absence of a realistic exploitation model that takes into account constraints on the placement of wells and their associated infrastructures, it is extremely difcult to assess the potential impacts of shale gas development on the landscape. Davis and Robinson (2012) recently proposed a framework to identify the sites that would be the most strongly impacted, from an ecological point of view, by shale gas extraction activities. Our framework goes a few steps further by also integrating, as precisely as possible, well pads, access roads, and for the rst time, pipelines for a more comprehensive evaluation of the impacts, notably with regards to forest fragmentation. To develop this framework, we used a geographic information system (GIS) and realistic development scenarios largely inspired by the PA experience (well pad and compressor station density, access road width, etc.) but adapted to the QC context, i.e., taking into account its particular legislation and the ownership of mineral rights. This proactive approach, easily adaptable to other regions, could greatly simplify the decision-making process for environmental managers with regards to the development of the shale gas industry.

Methods Study Area The study area corresponds to the regional county munic cancour and Lotbinie ` re (about ipalities (RCMs) of Be 1,400 km2), which are located in the St. Lawrence River Lowlands, near Quebec City (Fig. 1). RCMs are administrative units grouping multiple neighboring municipalities in order to provide collective services, such as land plan cancour and Lotbinie ` re were chosen ning. The RCMs of Be because a large part of their area covers the Utica Shale about 14 % of the total shale area is located under these RCMsand because preliminary drilling operations sug` re des Ressources gested a high local gas potential (Ministe bec 2011a). naturelles et de la Faune du Que cancour and Lotbinie ` re are covered by RCMs of Be marine deposits (clay and sand) and elevation varies from 0 to 100 m above sea level. Slopes are between 0 and 1 % can(Robitaille and Saucier 1998). Three major rivers (Be ne, and Gentilly) are present. Population is cour, du Che about 50,000 inhabitants, and the main urban centers are cancour, Saint-Apollinaire, and Sainte-Croix with popBe ulations of 12,400, 5,100, and 2,400, respectively (Statistique Canada 2011). Main land covers are forest (38 % of the area), cultivated lands (32 %), water bodies (10 %), and wetlands (6 %), and about 90 % of the lands are pri` re des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du vate (Ministe bec 2000; Canards Illimite s Canada 2009a, b). The Que

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Fig. 1 Location of the Utica Shale (circled by a black line) in the cancour and Lotbinie ` re (QC, regional county municipalities of Be Canada), and of regulatory and ecological constraints to shale gas

drilling (see text for details). Location of woodlots is also indicated ` re des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du (data source: Ministe bec 2000) Que

forest cover is roughly equivalent to that of the other regions of QC (2848 %) with a high gas potential (Ro` re des Ressources nabitaille and Saucier 1998; Ministe bec 2012b). Public roads have turelles et de la faune du Que a total length of 1,067 km, with four different types: (1) double-lane highways (61 km), (2) national roads (66 km), (3) regional roads (27 km), and (4) local roads (913 km). Private roads are 2,034 km long and form the ` re bulk of the road infrastructures in the study area (Ministe bec 2000). des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Que It should be noted that in QC, contrary to the United States, the ownership of mineral rights is entirely public. Well Pads In QC, gas exploitation is subject to various regulations such as the Re ` glement sur le pe trole, le gaz naturel et les re servoirs souterrains (M-13.1, r.1). Article 22 denes minimal distances between gas wells and several land cover features. These distances are established to protect other land uses or for environmental or safety reasons (Table 1). Other minimal distances must be respected in accordance with other laws pertaining to ecological reserves and species at risk. These elements form the regulatory constraints that were used in a rst scenario of

shale gas development. There are also other land cover features, such as sugar maple (Acer saccharum) woodlots, wetlands, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) yards, in which gas exploitation is not prohibited but could have important environmental consequences. Social acceptability of a drilling project in such ecosystems could be particularly low. These elements (ecological constraints) were included in a second scenario of shale gas development which also incorporated regulatory constraints. All the above-mentioned constraints were mapped with the help of public databases (Table 1) and a GIS (ArcGIS; Environmental Systems Research Institute 2011), and were excluded from potential drilling areas. In order to produce realistic scenarios of shale gas cancour and Lotbinie ` re, we development in the RCMs of Be assumed that the most advanced drilling technology will be used. In this regard, multi-well pads will likely be the norm in southern QC, since it is now possible to extract shale gas from a large area with a single pad containing several wells extending in different directions. However, to avoid overlaps in the extraction area of neighboring well pads, the spacing of pads in our scenarios was set to one per 260 ha (New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 2011; Davis and Robinson 2012; Duchaine et al. 2012). It is of course unlikely that full build up scenarios

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Environmental Management Table 1 Constraints to the drilling of a gas well in QC (Canada)

Constraint

Type of constraint Regulatory

Exclusion zone

Source of constraint (if regulatory)government of QC ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22 Loi sur les mines (M-13.1), article 144 ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22 ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22 ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22 Loi sur la conservation du patrimoine naturel (C61.01), article 34 ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22 ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22

Data source

Building

100 m around the building

` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2008a) du Que Ressources naturelles Canada (2007) ` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2008b) du Que Regional county municipalities of cancour and Be ` re (personal Lotbinie communication) DMTI Spatial Inc (2012a)

Cemetery High-voltage power line

Regulatory Regulatory

100 m around the cemetery 100 m each side of the power line 200 m around the well

Municipal groundwater well

Regulatory

Pipeline

Regulatory

100 m each side of the pipeline

Protected area (ecological reserve and park) Public road

Regulatory

Total area

` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2010) du Que ` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2008c) du Que DMTI Spatial Inc (2012b)

Regulatory

100 m each side of the road

Railway

Regulatory

100 m each side of the railway

Sugar maple woodlot Threatened or vulnerable species Urban area

Ecological

Total area

Regulatory

Habitat of the species Total area

Regulatory

` ces Loi sur les espe es ou vulne rables menace (E-12.01), article 17 nagement Loi sur lame durable du territoire et de lurbanisme (projet de loi 47) ` glement sur le pe trole, le Re gaz naturel et les servoirs souterrains re (M-13.1, r.1), article 22

` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2012c) du Que es sur le Centre de donne patrimoine naturel du bec (2013) Que Regional county municipalities of cancour and Be ` re (personal Lotbinie communication) ` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2008d) du Que s Canada Canards Illimite (2009a, b) ` re des Ressources Ministe naturelles et de la Faune bec (2011b) du Que

Water body

Regulatory

100 m each side of (river) or around (lake) the water body Total area Total area

Wetland White-tailed deer yard

Ecological Ecological

(one pad per 260 ha) will eventually be achieved, but our intent here was to assess the maximal possible impact of the shale gas industry in the study area. Well pads were

distributed over the area of the RCMs using a hexagonal grid (each hexagon: 260 ha) created in the GIS. Hexagons with \130 ha free of constraints were entirely discarded as

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potential drilling sites; below this value, land use conicts de are too likely (Davis and Robinson 2012; Comite valuation environnementale strate gique sur le gaz de le schiste 2012b). One well pad of 2 ha, potentially contain trolie ` re et gazie ` re du ing eight to ten wells (Association pe bec 2010), was placed as close as possible to the center Que of each selected hexagon, in an area free of constraints. Access Roads Constructing and running a well pad requires heavy equipment which often necessitates the construction or improvement of access roads. Two distinct strategies were used in this study regarding access roads. These strategies were used in both development scenarios. In the rst strategy, well pads were connected to the nearest existing road, public or private, or to the nearest potential well pad (if closer), using the shortest possible distance. In the second strategy, well pads were connected to the nearest public road only (or to the nearest well pad), since we hypothesized that owners of private roads could be reluctant to permit the use of their roads. In QC, private owners can refuse the use of their access roads, but cannot totally control the access to well pad sites since mineral rights are publicly owned. In case of refusal, they could be expropriated for right-of-ways. In addition to the shortest possible distance, access roads were traced so as to minimize additional forest fragmentation. In the St. Lawrence River Lowlands where the forest cover has already been greatly reduced, clearing a forest patch, even for a narrow corridor, is highly expen tro sive because of compensation requirements (Gaz Me 2010). However, avoiding a forest patch was considered (admittedly subjectively) too expensive if it doubled (or more) the distance between the well pad and the nearest existing public or private road; in this case the forest patch was crossed. Finally, large water bodies (large rivers and lakes) were not crossed in order to avoid costly culvert and bridge construction. According to New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (2011), access road width varies during the well pad life cycle. During the drilling phase, access roads are usually 612 m large; while in the extraction phase, roads 36 m large are sufcient. In this study, we used a value of 12 m for access roads, i.e., the largest potential value during the life cycle of a well pad. Pipelines Each well pad must be connected to a pipeline network via compressor stations in order to bring gas to the market tro 2010). A compressor station is an installation (Gaz Me where gas is pressurized and puried before being injected

in the main pipeline. The volume of gas to be transported inuences the pipeline diameter, which in turn inuences the width of the associated right-of-way. In general, the width of gas pipeline right-of-ways varies from 15 to 18 m (Initiative du gaz naturel canadien 2012). In our scenarios, we used a value of 18 m. Pipeline right-of-ways must be cleared of trees and accessible at all time. Some uses are permitted over right-of-ways, such as agriculture, recreational activities, and road construction. Pipeline companies normally use existing right-of-ways (power lines, railroads, and roads) to establish pipelines in order to reduce construction and maintenance costs, and impacts on the land tro 2010). cover (Gaz Me The establishment of a shale gas transportation network tro 2010). The requires three types of pipelines (Gaz Me rst type connects well pads to compressor stations. In our scenarios, their layout was designed to maximally reduce their length. Each compressor station normally collects gas from well pads located in a radius of about 6.59.5 km (New York State Department of Environmental Conservation 2011); in the study area, 11 compressor stations would be needed if all possible well pads were exploited. The second type of pipelines connects compressor stations to the third type of pipeline, i.e., the main pipeline. In our scenarios, the main pipeline crossed the study area from the southwest to the northeast. The path of the main pipeline was marked out with the help of the Network Analyst tool of ArcGIS (Environmental Systems Research Institute 2011) to keep its length and that of the other pipelines as short as possible. All pipelines followed, where possible, existing right-of-ways. If forest patches had to be crossed, the same procedure as for access roads was used to minimize forest fragmentation. Edge Effect and Forest Fragmentation We used the concept of edge effect to assess forest fragmentation caused by shale gas development. An edge effect is created where a forest patch is adjacent to a non-forest patch (cultivated land and right-of-way). The abrupt transition (a few meters) from a non-forest patch to a forest patch creates physical conditions (luminosity, humidity, temperature, wind exposure, etc.) that inuence the plant and animal composition of a forest patch. Edge effects disturb species interactions, the trophic structure of plant and animal assemblages, and the movement of individuals; and edges are avoided by species that prefer core forest areas (Ries et al. 2004; Harper et al. 2005; Fischer and Lindenmayer 2007; Fletcher et al. 2007; Porensky and cancour Young 2013). The forest cover of the RCMs of Be ` re is already strongly fragmented, so the creand Lotbinie ation of new edges could have a substantial impact on remaining core forest areas.

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We used a 100-m edge distance around forest patches in our gas extraction development scenarios because most abiotic, plant and animal responses to edge effects are reported over this distance (Ries et al. 2004; Drohan et al. 2012). The area affected by edge effects in each forest patch, according to the different development scenarios, was estimated using a model recently developed by Didham and Ewers (2012)an improvement of the core-area model of Laurance and Yensen (1991) which tended to underestimate true core areas. The Didham and Ewers (2012) model takes into account not only the size and the perimeter of the fragment, but also its shape. It provides a more accurate estimation of edge-affected areas than that provided by the buffer command of GIS softwares. In our scenarios, the perforating effect of well pads was considered in calculations.

Results Constraints to shale gas exploitation in the RCMs of cancour and Lotbinie ` re covered 640 km2, which repreBe sents about 46 % of the study area (Fig. 1). There were several geographic overlaps between different types of constraints, but regulatory constraints were the main type represented (527 km2). Taken separately, three regulatory constraints (often overlapping) were responsible for most of the area excluded from drilling, i.e., water bodies (262 km2), public roads (172 km2), and buildings (155 km2). Applying the two different gas exploitation development scenarios (Fig. 2) resulted in the number of well pads varying from 175 (scenario with regulatory and ecological constraints) to 234 (regulatory constraints only). The construction of these well pads would require the clearing of 183235 ha of woodlands and the loss of 139148 ha of cultivated lands (Table 2). Access roads needed to connect well pads to the existing public roads would be as much as three times longer if private roads could not be used, but would nevertheless only represent a 6 % increase (171 km) of the total road network of the RCMs (private roads included). Access roads would cross cultivated lands (3551 % of their total length) or woodlands (3249 %), or would be constructed in existing right-of-ways. The pipeline network would be 486 km (scenario with regulatory and ecological constraints) or 549 km long (regulatory constraints only), which would correspond to 2.8 and 2.3 km of pipelines per well pad, respectively (Table 2). Depending on the model, from 262 to 295 ha of cultivated lands would be temporarily out of production during the pipeline construction phase, while 241277 ha of woodlands would be cleared. The pipelines connecting well pads to the compressor stations, which represent 70 %

of the total pipeline network, would be the pipeline type responsible for most of the forest clearing (8688 % of the losses). Some valued ecosystems would be impacted by access roads and pipelines in the scenario taking into account only the regulatory constraints: up to 74 km of access roads and pipelines would cross deer yards, sugar maple woodlots, or wetlands if they were not systematically avoided, which was the case in the scenario protecting these ecosystems. All gas infrastructures combined (well pads, access roads, and pipelines) would create 472727 new forest fragments in the study area (Table 2), which would represent a 21 % increase in the worst-case scenario. The mean area per fragment would be reduced from 200 ha to about 180170 ha. However, \1 % of the woodland cover and \4 % of the core forest areas would be lost, respectively (regardless of the scenario), which represented about 800 ha of core forests. There was no difference between the different exploitation scenarios in this respect because although the number of well pads was lower in the scenarios with ecological constraints, almost all well pads with an impact on core forests were retained in all scenarios. The presence of sugar maple woodlots, the only ecological constraint that could have contributed to reduce the effect of shale gas infrastructures on core forest areas, did not have a strong inuence on the protection of core forests, at least in the study area.

Discussion Although we mapped the potential shale gas infrastructures cancour and Lotbinie ` re as accurately as in the RCMs of Be possible, only the overall picture should be considered in this assessment, not the exact location of well pads, access roads, and pipelines. Unsurprisingly, of all the shale gas development scenarios investigated in this study, the scenario with regulatory constraints and without access to private roads would have the greatest footprint on the land cover. This scenario would result into 234 well pads, with potentially up to 2,300 wells, requiring 171 km of access roads and 549 km of pipelines. All these infrastructures de le valcould be constructed in about 10 years (Comite gique sur le gaz de schiste uation environnementale strate 2012b). The scenario with the lowest impact would be the one with regulatory and ecological constraints and allowing the use of the private road network; but overall, the differences between these two scenarios are relatively minor, with the loss of \1 % of the forest cover in each case. This percentage is roughly equivalent to that calculated (23 %) for the area of intensive gas extraction in PA cancour and (Johnson 2010). However, the RCMs of Be ` re could potentially lose more core forests Lotbinie

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Fig. 2 Location of the infrastructures required to extract the maximum amount of shale gas in the regional county municipalities of cancour and Lotbinie ` re (QC, Canada). These infrastructures are Be placed over the Utica Shale (circled by a black line). Two exploitation scenarios are shown: a only with regulatory constraints and without access to private roads for connecting well pads to the public road

system (the scenario with presumably the highest environmental impact), b with regulatory and ecological constraints and with access to private roads (the scenario with presumably the lowest environmental impact). Location of roads and woodlots is also indicated (data ` re des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune du Que bec source: Ministe 2000)

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Environmental Management Table 2 Summary of the potential impacts on the land cover from shale gas exploitation in the regional county municipalities of cancour and Lotbinie ` re Be (QC, Canada)

Scenario

No development

Development with regulatory constraints only No access to private roads With access to private roads 234 161 235 148 58 549 59

Development with regulatory and ecological constraints No access to private roads 175 118 183 139 128 486 With access to private roads 175 118 183 139 40 486

Well pads (N) Well pads in woodlands (n) Woodlands cleared on well pad sitestotal area (ha) Cultivated lands lost on well pad sitestotal area (ha) New access roads to well pads total length (km) Two development scenarios are shown (with or without ecological constraints), each with two different strategies regarding the access of well pads to the public road network (with or without access to private roads) New pipelinestotal length (km) New access roads and pipelines crossing ecological constraints total length (km) Forest patches (N) Forest patchestotal area (km ) Core foresttotal area (km2)
2

234 161 235 148 171 549 74

3,528 723 244

4,255 717 236

4,141 717 236

4,108 718 236

4,000 718 236

(800 ha) than the entire state of PA has since the beginning of shale gas extraction (Drohan et al. 2012). The loss of core forests is particularly of concern, since several species (especially songbirds) do not tolerate edge effects, and the resulting penetration of non-native plants, nest predators, and parasitic species (see Kiviat 2013 for a review). Furthermore, the number of forest fragments in the RCMs would increase by 1321 %; since the woodland cover is already greatly fragmented, this would represent a substantial increase. With the creation of new edges, higher wind speed and more frequent extreme winds would probably cause more tree damage and blow down near edges, and eventually deeper in the forest (Harper et al. 2005). More woodland areas than cultivated lands would be impacted by the development of the shale gas industry. QC regulation regarding drilling prevents the construction of well pads close to public and private infrastructures, which tends to favor their establishment in forested areas which are often located at some distance from roads and buildings. Areas [130 ha free of drilling constraints are also more frequent in woodlands. Adding a regulatory constraint protecting core forest areas would help to protect forest patches with the greatest ecological value in regions where the woodland cover is highly fragmented. The fact that in QC the ownership of mineral rights is entirely public could help to establish such regulation. On the other hand, impacts on cultivated lands are more difcult to assess. As agriculture is possible on pipeline right-of-ways, only well pads and access roads would cause a net loss of farmlands.

However, agricultural activities are often abandoned in the neighborhood of well pads after the construction of shale gas infrastructures (Drohan et al. 2012), so the shale gas industry could affect a much larger area of cultivated lands than that directly associated to well pads and access roads. Furthermore, the best agricultural soils in QC are essentially located in the St. Lawrence River Lowlands (Lajoie 1975); farmed lands in the study region are in great demand, with a mean value of 6,0286,745 CAN$ ha-1 in ` re agricole 2012). The shale gas industry 2011 (La Financie could, therefore, also have a negative impact on the value of cultivated lands, which could be become less attractive for farming because of the presence of gas infrastructures. If private roads cannot be used to connect well pads to public roads, the length of access roads to be built would be three times longer than if private roads were accessible; but in the worst-case scenario, the existing road network (3,101 km) would be extended by only 171 km (a 6 % increase), or 0.73 km per well pad. In PA, 0.26 km of access roads were built, on average, to connect a well pad to the public road system (Drohan et al. 2012). The fact that cancour and Lotbinie ` re already have an the RCMs of Be extended road network explains this modest increase. A neglected but possibly important issue is the limited capacity of regional and local roads to support heavy vehicles, especially during the construction phase: more than 6,800 truck trips are needed to fracture a single well (Garti 2012). These roads could require more frequent maintenance which would entail additional disturbances to wildlife and residents, in addition to higher public

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spending. On the other hand, the pipeline networkoften not considered in environmental impact assessments de le valuation environnementale strate gique sur (Comite le gaz de schiste 2012b; Drohan et al. 2012; Davis and Robinson 2012; but see Johnson 2010)would have a much greater footprint on the land cover than access roads because there are currently no pipeline infrastructures and because pipeline right-of-ways have to be free of trees.

Conclusions The impacts of shale gas exploitation on the land cover of cancour and Lotbinie ` re, and especially on the RCMs of Be woodlands, would not strongly contribute to land cover fragmentation, at least compared to other regions exploited for oil or gas (Bi et al. 2011); but this is largely because the forest cover is already highly fragmented by roads and agricultural activities. The area occupied by core forests would nevertheless be substantially reduced, and regulations specically protecting those forests should rapidly be implemented before the expansion of shale gas activities. In this region already well served by access roads, the new pipelines would create more land use planning challenges for environmental managers than the new roads. For a proper evaluation of their impacts, pipelines should be compared to the only other alternative for gas transportation, i.e., the use of trucks. Issues to be examined include air and noise pollution resulting from trucking, which would be considerable in a scenario with 175234 well pads (Kiviat 2013). Heavy truck damages to road infrastructures and safety concerns would also have to be addressed. Finally, our study highlights the importance of groundwater protection; with a potential for more than 3,200 gas wells, groundwater and surface water pollution cancour and could become critical issues in the RCMs of Be ` re if a link between shale gas extraction and water Lotbinie pollution is conclusively established. An aspect of the problem also often neglected is the treatment of the water used for hydraulic fracturing: municipal wastewater treatment plants are usually not designed to treat polluted water from shale gas wells, and this could contribute to the contamination of waterways receiving only partially treated waters (Vidic et al. 2013). We have shown that with the knowledge acquired since the beginning of development of the shale gas industry, it is possible within a reasonable time frame to produce a reliable assessment of the impacts of gas extraction on a rural region. We have also shown that it is possible to precisely evaluate the footprint of the projected infrastructures, which is, to our knowledge, a substantial improvement de compared to other models proposed to date (Comite valuation environnementale strate gique sur le gaz de le

schiste 2012b; Davis and Robinson 2012). This study was conducted by a team of ve Masters level graduate students (supervised by C. Lavoie) with various expertises (environment, geography, and political sciences) and a good knowledge of GIS. It required only about 40 days of work over an eight-month period, and was developed using free, public databases. The main challenge was associated with the design of the pipeline network, but GIS tools can greatly facilitate the task of environmental managers in this respect. Our framework could easily be applied to other contexts or jurisdictions, and improved by including other ecological criteria (Davis and Robinson 2012). Without such assessments, environmental managers could potentially misjudge the impacts of shale gas industry or not focus on the most problematical issues, for instance roads or pipelines.
Acknowledgments This research was nancially supported by the cole supe rieure dame nagement du territoire et de de veloppement E gional of Universite Laval. re

References
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