Syria Deeply: Stalled Talks and Assads Reelection Push a Policy Rethink

2/26/14, 7:14 PM

Syria Deeply: Stalled Talks and Assads Reelection Push a Policy Rethink

Dear Deeply Readers, This weekend saw a breakthrough in diplomacy and practical action around Syrias crisis, in the form of a unanimous U.N. Security Council resolution on humanitarian aid. The document, which the New York Times posted here, calls for all parties to allow the unimpeded delivery of assistance; the Syrian government had been accused of blocking humanitarian access to rebel-held and opposition-friendly areas, while the presence of extremist rebel groups has complicated efforts to reach those in desperate conditions. Thats left over 3 million Syrians stranded in hard-to-reach areas, according to the U.N., while a wider 9.3 million people need urgent help (roughly half of Syrias population). While the resolution isnt immediately enforceable, it does cite the intent to take further steps in the case of non-compliancea hint of potential future consequences. It is an opening for the West, as it looks to hold President Bashar al Assad accountable for his part in the conflict. The hope is to apply enough pressure to break the status quo, to advance a political solution toward a transition of power that can stabilize the country. They face the intransigence of Assad himself, whos come away confident after Geneva talks and remains generally uninterested in leaving power. This week pro-government crowds held demonstrations in support of Assad, with voices calling for him to renew his mandate as president. To do so, the regime has two options: either hold elections, with Assad running against generally weak domestic political opponents, or extend Assads rule unilaterally, by extending his term for two years with parliamentary approval. In an alternative scenario, if the regime is effectively prodded by Russia and Iran, it could use the occasion to gradually engineer a political transition to introduce a managed shift toward a new order, still with Assad at the helm, but in a way that opens to the participation of emerging leaders. It looks far from todays reality, as the regime derides the opposition Syrian National Coalition and squelches its opponents at home. But that kind of regime-sponsored transition is currently the optimal end game, in a conflict that is costing its participants and their patrons dearly.

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Syria Deeply: Stalled Talks and Assads Reelection Push a Policy Rethink

2/26/14, 7:14 PM

Syrias political timeline is such that the government would likely announce its course of action by late March; if elections are due theyd be called in May or June, before a new presidential term begins in July. That decision will be a significant trigger point either an opportunity to engineer political change, or step to further polarize the country, crystallizing divisions between regime and rebel-held areas. That timing is partly why Syria policy is now getting a rethink, in Washington and beyond. The U.S. is assessing a more muscular approach to Syria, to the point of potentially reviving the option of military action; Syrias delayed delivery of its chemical weapons could become a key point of contention. In alignment with U.S. objectives, Saudi Arabia is consolidating its Syria file under Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the Interior Minister, in a bid to bring extremist rebel groups under control. Meanwhile the Syrian opposition itself is aiming to gain strategic ground, naming a new rebel commander and effectively shifting the focus to Syrias southern front, to the part of the country that includes Damascus and its key arteries. If the Saudi promise of anti-aircraft weapons gets delivered, it would amplify their punch at Assads aerial power. Collectively, the pressure they apply is aimed at changing the calculus in Damascus and in Moscow and Tehran toward a compromise. How effectively that can happen is an open question. The rebels have lacked for effective organization and coordination; now they face a new rift over the removal of General Selim Idris. The ceasefires around Damascus appear to be less about reconciliation and more a factor of rebel capitulation fatigued rebel fighters giving in to quiet wins for the regime. Where the regime does exercise control, Assads security establishment and his paramilitary National Defense Force are increasing in influence. For now, the choice of a Syrian political transition still rests with the regime itself, which has stalled at making progress. Thats why the world is looking for new ways to approach it, with a fresh set of carrot and sticks. Highlights from Syria Deeply: Will Selim Idriss Removal Further Fragment the Opposition? Q&A: Marwan Muasher on Syrias Impact on Jordan Neighborhood by Neighborhood, Mapping a Politically Heterogenous Aleppo Will The Cease-fires in the Southern Suburbs of Damascus Hold? After Homs Evacuations, Freed Families Hoping To Return To Normal How the Kurdish PYD Operates Its Own Autonomous Government As Barrel Bombs Fall, Aleppos Families Flee Eye on the Battle: In Deir Ezzor, Nusra Maintains Upper Hand over ISIS

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Syria Deeply: Stalled Talks and Assads Reelection Push a Policy Rethink

2/26/14, 7:14 PM

Headlines from the Week: Economist: The Lessons of Geneva NY Times: U.N. Orders Both Sides in Syria to Allow Humanitarian Aid WSJ: Entrepreneurship Remains Alive in Syria Reuters: Syria Submits new 100- Day Plan for Removal of Chemical Weapons Al Arabiya: Saudi Arabia and US to Cooperate on Syria Were fielding your feedback on how to better serve you and cover the story. You can reach our team on email at info@syriadeeply.org.

Sincerely, The News Deeply Team

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