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Not My Problem

Warming impacts are hype and net beneficial food production most recent studies Lomborg 9/30 [Bjrn, Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School and Director of the Copenhagen Consensus
Center, 2013, Cli!ate Acti"ists #eed to Dial Bac$ on the Panic,% http&''ideas(ti!e(co!'2013'0)'30'cli!ate*acti"ists*need*to*dial* +ac$*on*the*panic', -n .rida/, the 0(#( cli!ate panel, the 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate Change 21PCC3, produced its first

o"er"ie4 in si5 /ears( 1t 4asn6t a+out panic and catastrophe, 4hich unfortunatel/ has do!inated our cli!ate de+ate, leading to e5pensi"e +ut ineffecti"e policies( 7he 1PCC is no4 e5tre!el/ certain that !ore than half of the past si5 decades6 te!perature rise 4as caused +/ !an [anthropogenic,( But it does not support the scary scenarios of te!perature rises of )8. or !ore +andied a+out +/ acti"ists 9 the li$el/ rise o"er the 21st centur/ is a+out 1 !". to :(;8.( Si!ilarl/ it !a$es short shrift of alar!ist clai!s that sea le"els 4ill rise 3 ft( to : ft( 1n realit/, the 1PCC esti!ates the rise +/ the end of the centur/ at 1(< ft( to 2 ft( =oreo"er, little or no temperature rise in the past 1< to 20 /ears reinforces this !oderate !essage( Since 1)>0, the a"erage of all the current cli!ate !odels ha"e o#erestimated the actual temperature rise by ;1? to 1$9% 7his does not !ean that there is not so!e glo+al 4ar!ing, +ut it !a$es the 4orst scenarios e"er !ore i!plausi+le( @et, our cli!ate con"ersation has +een dominated by fear and end&of&the&'orld thin(ing Ahile panic is a great 4a/ to raise a4areness and to 4in "otes, it is a terrible 'ay to ground smart policies Be!e!+er Al Core6s !o"ie,
An 1ncon"enient 7ruth, 4hich 4as all the rage just se"en /ears agoD Eis !ost sho4n clip "i"idl/ illustrated ho4 a sea*le"el rise of 20 ft( 4ould inundate .lorida, along 4ith Beijing and Bangladesh( @es, it 4as terrif/ing( But it had no +asis in realit/( Sea*le"el rise

of 1(< ft( to 2 ft( poses a Fuite !ore manageable challenge .or scale, sea le"els rose a+out 1 ft( o"er the past 1<0 /ears( -ur forefathers, poorer and less technologicall/ adept than us, handled this challenge Fuite deftl/, and there 4as no catastrophe 9 in fact, it is unli$el/ e"en to +e !entioned in a list of pro+le!s of the 20th centur/( Ae need to get +ac$ to realit/( @es, glo+al 4ar!ing is happening( 1n the long run, it has an o"erall negati"e i!pact( But actuall/ 9 and surprisingl/ for !an/ 9 econo!ic !odels generall/ find that moderate global 'arming is a net glo+al benefit( Aorld4ide and in al!ost all regions, !an/ !ore people die fro! cold than heat( Aith increasing te!peratures, a"oided cold deaths 4ill "astl/ out4eigh e5tra heat deaths( B/ !idcentur/, researchers esti!ate G00,000 !ore heat deaths +ut 1(> !illion fe4er cold deaths( Hi$e4ise, C-2 fertiliIes crops and 4ill increase production !ore in te!perate countries than it 4ill slo4 do4n crop increases in tropical countries( 1t 4ill reduce heating costs !ore than it 4ill increase cooling costs( Ne' report pro#es no impact to 'arming )aylor and *dso 11/+3 [Ja!es, Senior .ello4 for Kn"iron!ent Polic/ at 7he Eeartland 1nstitute, and Craig, .ounder and
.or!er President of the Center for the Stud/ of Car+on Dio5ide and Clo+al Change and Coeditor of the #ongo"ern!ental 1nternational Panel on Cli!ate Change, 2013, Clo+al Aar!ing Alar!is! Denies Sound Science,% http&''+log(heartland(org'2013'11'glo+al*4ar!ing*alar!is!*denies*sound*science', 1n realit/, sound science continues to deli#er blo' after blo' to clai!s of a glo+al 4ar!ing

crisis( -n Septe!+er 1;, the #ongo"ern!ental 1nternational Panel on Cli!ate Change released Cli!ate Change Beconsidered 11& Ph/sical Science 2CCB*23, containing !ore than 1,000 pages of scientific research indicating glo+al 4ar!ing is not an i!pending crisis( -orty&se#en scientists contri+uted to CCB*2, presenting nearl/ $,000 citations of peer&re#ie'ed studies e5posing fla4s in glo+al 4ar!ing alar!is!( 7he follo4ing 4ee$, the 0nited #ations 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate Change 21PCC3 released its .ifth Assess!ent Beport, 4hich +ac$trac$s on !an/ prior 1PCC predictions and contradicts !an/ of the !ost freFuent assertions !ade +/ glo+al 4ar!ing acti"ists( 7he 1PCC report contradicts clai!s that glo+al 4ar!ing is causing !ore e5tre!e 4eather, ac$no4ledges global 'arming is occurring !ore slo'l/ than the 1PCC pre"iousl/ predicted, predicts less future 'arming than pre"ious 1PCC reports, and ad!its the lac$ of glo+al 4ar!ing this centur/ defies nearl/ all computer models that predict rapid future

No Warming

4ar!ing( Se"eral

peer*re"ie4ed studies pu+lished during recent 4ee$s reinforced the lac$ of a glo+al 4ar!ing crisis( .or e5a!ple, a stud/ in the peer*re"ie4ed #ature Cli!ate Change reported glo+al 4ar!ing is occurring !ore slo4l/ than 4hat 4as predicted +/ 11G of 11; cli!ate !odels relied on +/ the 1PCC and other go"ern!ent agencies( Beal*4orld 4ar!ing is occurring at !erel/ half the pace projected +/ !ost cli!ate !odels, the stud/ found( 7he peer*re"ie4ed Ceoph/sical Besearch Hetters reported Karth is undergoing substantial greening as a result of higher car+on dio5ide le"els and !ore* fa"ora+le 4eather conditions( Plant life is flourishing, and foliage is +eco!ing !ore pre"alent all across the glo+e as Karth 4ar!s, 4ith the !ost i!pressi"e gains o+ser"ed in arid regions +ordering deserts( 7he 4estern 0nited States is a!ong the +ig 4inners, 4ith !an/ regions in the 0(S( Aest e5periencing 30 percent or greater increases in foliage during the past 30 /ears( =other #ature punctuated these reports and peer*re"ie4ed studies 4ith se"eral e5cla!ation points( Clo+al hurricane fre.uency is undergoing a long&term decline, 4ith glo+al hurricane and tropical stor! acti"it/ at record lo4s
during the past se"eral /ears( 7he /ear 2013 tied an all*ti!e record for the latest for!ation of an/ Atlantic hurricane( 7he 0nited States is +enefiting fro! the longest period in recorded histor/ 4ithout a !ajor hurricane stri$e( 7ornado acti"it/ is in long*ter! decline, 4ith !ajor tornado stri$es 2.3 or higher3 sho4ing a re!ar$a+le decline in recent decades( #earl/ all locations included in

the glo+al soil !oisture data+an$ sho4 long*ter! i!pro"e!ent, signaling a substantial decline in the freFuenc/ and se"erit/ of droughts No 'arming historical and statistical analysis dispro#e the predicti#e capability of climate models -yfe et al 13 [John, Besearch Scientist 4ith the Canadian Centre for Cli!ate =odeling, 4ith #athan Cillett, Besearch Scientist
4ith the Canadian Centre for Cli!ate =odeling, and .rancis L4iers, Hiterall/ 4rote the +oo$ on Cli!ate Statistics, Director of the Pacific Cli!ate 1!pacts Consortiu! and Adjunct Professor in the Dept( of =athe!atics and Statistics of the 0ni"ersit/ of Mictoria, Septe!+er, -"eresti!ated Clo+al Aar!ing -"er the Past 20 @ears,% Nature, Mol( 3, p( ;:;*), Clo+al !ean surface te!perature o"er the past 20 /ears 21))3N20123 rose at a rate of 0(1G O 0(0: 8C

per decade 2)<? confidence inter"al31( 7his rate of 4ar!ing is significantly slo'er than that simulated by the cli!ate models participating in Phase < of the Coupled =odel 1nterco!parison Project 2C=1P<3( 7o illustrate this, 4e considered trends in glo+al !ean surface te!perature co!puted fro! 11/ simulations of the cli!ate +/ 3; C=1P< !odels 2see Supple!entar/ 1nfor!ation3( 7hese !odels generall/ si!ulate natural "aria+ilit/ 9 including that associated 4ith the Kl #iPoNSouthern -scillation and e5plosi"e "olcanic eruptions 9 as 4ell as esti!ate the co!+ined response of cli!ate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol a+undance 2of sulphate, +lac$ car+on and organic car+on, for e5a!ple3, oIone concentrations 2tropospheric and stratospheric3, land use 2for e5a!ple, deforestation3 and solar "aria+ilit/( B/ a"eraging si!ulated te!peratures onl/ at locations 4here corresponding o+ser"ations e5ist, 4e find an a"erage si!ulated rise in glo+al !ean surface te!perature of 0(30 O 0(02 8C per decade 2using )<? confidence inter"als on the !odel a"erage3( 7he o+ser"ed rate of 4ar!ing gi"en a+o"e is less than half of this simulated rate, and onl/ a fe4 si!ulations pro"ide 4ar!ing trends 4ithin the range of o+ser"ational uncertaint/ 2.ig( 1a3( 7he inconsistenc/ +et4een o+ser"ed and si!ulated glo+al 4ar!ing is e"en !ore stri$ing for te!perature trends co!puted o"er the past fifteen /ears 21))>N20123( .or this period, the o+ser"ed trend of 0(0< O 0(0> 8C per decade is !ore than four ti!es s!aller than the a"erage si!ulated trend of 0(21 O 0(03 8C per decade 2.ig( 1+3( 1t is 4orth noting that the o+ser"ed trend o"er this period 9 not significantl/ different fro! Iero 9 suggests a te!porar/ 0hiatus1 in global 'arming 2NG( 7he di"ergence
+et4een o+ser"ed and C=1P<* si!ulated glo+al 4ar!ing +egins in the earl/ 1))0s, as can +e seen 4hen co!paring o+ser"ed and si!ulated running trends fro! 1);0N2012 2.ig( 2a and 2+ for 20*/ear and 1<*/ear running trends, respecti"el/3( 7he e"idence, therefore, indicates

that the current generation of cli!ate !odels 24hen run as a group, 4ith the C=1P< not reproduce the o+ser"ed glo+al 4ar!ing o"er the past 20 /ears, or the slo4do4n in glo+al 4ar!ing o"er the past fifteen /ears( 7his interpretation is supported by statistical tests of the null h/pothesis that the o+ser"ed and !odel !ean trends are eFual, assu!ing that either& 213 the
prescri+ed forcings3 do !odels are e5changea+le 4ith each other 2that is, the Qtruth plus error6 "ie43R or 223 the !odels are e5changea+le 4ith each other and 4ith the o+ser"ations 2see Supple!entar/ 1nfor!ation3( Differences +et4een o+ser"ed and si!ulated 20*/ear trends ha"e p "alues 2Supple!entar/ 1nfor!ation3 that drop to close to Iero +/ 1))3N2012 under assu!ption 213 and to 0(0G under assu!ption 223 2.ig( 2c3( Eere 4e note that the s!aller the p "alue is, the stronger the e"idence against the null h/pothesis( -n this +asis, the rarit/ of the 1))3N2012 trend difference under assu!ption 213 is o+"ious( 0nder assu!ption 223, this i!plies that such an inconsistenc/ is onl/ e5pected to occur +/ chance once in <00 /ears, if 20*/ear periods are considered statisticall/ independent( Si!ilar results appl/ to trends for 1))>N2012 2.ig( 2d3( 1n conclusion, 4e reject the null h/pothesis that the o+ser"ed and !odel !ean trends are eFual at

the 10? le"el( -ne

possi+le e5planation for the discrepanc/ is that forced and internal "ariation !ight co!+ine differentl/ in o+ser"ations than in !odels( .or e5a!ple, the forced trends in models are modulated up and do4n +/ si!ulated seFuences of K#S- e"ents, 4hich are not e2pected to coincide 'ith the obser#ed se.uence of such e"ents( .or this reason the !oderating influence on glo+al 4ar!ing that arises fro! the deca/ of the 1))> Kl #iPo e"ent does not occur in the !odels at that ti!e( 7hus 4e e!plo/ here an esta+lished techniFue to esti!ate the i!pact of K#S- on glo+al !ean te!perature, and to incorporate the effects of d/na!icall/ induced at!ospheric "aria+ilit/ and !ajor e5plosi"e "olcanic eruptions <,:( Although these three natural "ariations account for so!e differences +et4een si!ulated and o+ser"ed glo+al 4ar!ing, these differences do not su+stanti"el/ change our conclusion that obser#ed and simulated global 'arming are not in agreement o"er the past t4o decades 2.ig( 33( Another source of internal cli!ate "aria+ilit/ that !a/ contri+ute to the inconsistenc/ is the Atlantic !ultidecadal oscillation; 2A=-3( Eo4e"er, this is difficult to assess as the o+ser"ed and si!ulated "ariations in glo+al te!perature that are associated 4ith the
A=- see! to +e do!inated +/ a large and concurrent signal of presu!ed anthropogenic origin 2Supple!entar/ .ig( S13( 1t is 4orth noting that in an/ case the A=- has not dri"en cooling o"er the past 20 /ears( Another possi+le dri"er of the

Besults fro! se"eral independent datasets sho4 that stratospheric aerosol abundance has increased since the late 1))0s, o4ing to a series of co!parati"el/ s!all tropical "olcanic eruptions> ( Although none of the C=1P< si!ulations ta$e this into account, t4o independent sets of !odel si!ulations esti!ate that increasing stratospheric aerosols ha"e had a surface cooling i!pact of a+out 0 0/ "3 per decade
difference +et4een o+ser"ed and si!ulated glo+al 4ar!ing is increasing stratospheric aerosol concentrations( since 1))>,)( 1f the C=1P< !odels had accounted for increasing stratospheric aerosol, and had responded 4ith the sa!e surface cooling i!pact, the si!ulations and o+ser"ations 4ould +e in closer agree!ent( -ther factors that contri+ute to the

discrepanc/ could include a !issing decrease in stratospheric 'ater #apour10 24hose processes are not 4ell represented in current cli!ate !odels3, errors in aerosol forcing in the C=1P< !odels, a bias in the prescri+ed solar irradiance trend, the possi+ilit/ that the transient cli!ate sensiti"it/ of the C=1P< !odels could +e on a"erage too high 11,12 or a possible unusual episode of internal cli!ate "aria+ilit/ not considered a+o"e 13,1G( 0lti!atel/ the causes of this inconsistenc/ 4ill onl/ +e understood
after careful co!parison of si!ulated internal cli!ate "aria+ilit/ and cli!ate !odel forcings 4ith o+ser"ations fro! the past t4o decades, and +/ 4aiting to see ho4 glo+al te!perature responds o"er the co!ing decades(

4)5 3lar(
-lo's neg 'arming is ine#itable 3lar( 10// [Duncan, Consultant Kditor for Cuardian Kn"iron!ent, a Misiting Besearcher at the 0CH Knerg/ 1nstitute and Co*
.ounder of Digital Journalis! Co!pan/ Siln, 2013, 0# Cli!ate Change Panel& 74o Craphs 7hat 7ell the Beal Stor/ of the 1PCC Beport,% http&''444(theguardian(co!'en"iron!ent'+log'2013'oct'0;'un*cli!ate*change*panel*graphs*ipcc*report, 7o !a$e the situation e"en tougher, itTs not clear that the things 4e usuall/ assu!e 4ill help cut fossil fuel use actuall/ 4or$ as e5pected( As 7he Burning Uuestion argues, the long ter! trends suggest that glo+al fossil fuel use and

car+on e!issions ha"e so far +een co!pletel/ unaffected +/ huge gains in energ/ efficienc/, cleaner energ/ sources and slo4ing population gro4th( Kfficienc/ gains donTt necessaril/ !ean less energ/ use o"erallR !ore clean energ/ suppl/ doesnTt auto!aticall/ !ean less dirt/ energ/ suppl/R and a reduction in population gro4th doesnTt in itself slo4 e!issions gro4th( 7o a"oid a high chance of shooting far past 2C, therefore, 4e need to focus on the root pro+le!& the production and una+ated +urning of fossil fuel(

4)5 3limate6cienceWatch *ndict


7ou and the *P33 are stupid 8ast 11/19 [Joseph, President of the Eeartland 1nstitute, 2013,
Bepl/ to Cli!ateScienceAatch(co!, QEeartland 1nstitute and its #1PCC report fail the credi+ilit/ test,6 Septe!+er ), 2013,% http&''cli!atechangereconsidered(org'repl/*to*cli!atescience4atch* co!*heartland*institute*and*its*nipcc*report*fail*the*credi+ilit/*test*septe!+er*)*2013', 7his anon/!ousl/ 4ritten criticis! of #1PCC and Cli!ate Change Beconsidered 11& Ph/sical Science appeared on

the anti*s$eptic Ae+ site Cli!ateScienceAatch(org and originall/ appeared on a +log run +/ Jeff #es+it, an author of children1s no#els 7he author6s lac( of a scientific bac(ground is apparent in this re"ie4( 7here are !an/ points in this article that reFuire correction( 7he Eeartland 1nstitute did not asse!+le a group it calls the #ongo"ern!ental 1nternational Panel on Cli!ate Change 2#1PCC3,% nor did it choose the na!e( #1PCC 4as created in 2003 +/ S( .red Singer, 4ho chose the na!e at the suggestion of .rederic$ SeitI, one of the 4orld6s !ost distinguished scientists( See SetiI6s fore4ord in the first #1PCC report, here( #1PCC is an independent panel of scientists that chose 7he Eeartland 1nstitute to pu+lish its 4or$( #es+it disputes the clai! that #1PCC is a legiti!ate alternati"e authorit/ to the 1PCC,% clai!ing #1PCC does not follo4 the sa!e rigorous scientific e"aluation process as the 1PCC% and that 7he Eeartland 1nstitute has a long histor/ of opposing settled science in the interests of its free*!ar$et funders , and has used decidedl/ un* scientific tactics to do so(% Both state!ents are false( 7he #1PCC "s( 1PCC Process #1PCC6s editorial procedures are pu+licl/ stated and in line 4ith those of other scientific +odies and acade!ic journals( 7he/ are superior to those of the *P33 in !an/ 4a/s( 7he 1PCC operates under the .ra!e4or$ Con"ention on Cli!ate Change of the 0nited #ations, 4hich defines cli!ate change as change produced onl/ +/ hu!an greenhouse gas e!issions( 7his !eans the 1PCC is tas$ed 4ith finding a hu!an effect of hu!an car+on dio5ide e!issions on the cli!ate, 4hereas #1PCC loo$s at cli!ate change in the round,% 4ithout +ias( N*P33 #ie's greenhouse gas emissions as one possible influence, not the only one 7he 1PCC6s procedures 4ere hea"il/ criticiIed +/ the 1nterAgenc/ Council 21AC3, a !e!+ership organiIation for the heads of national acade!ies of science( According to the 1AC, 1PCC authors and contri+utors are recruited +/ politicians for reasons other than scholarl/ !eritR its peer re"ie4 is a sha!R its !ethod of deter!ining confidence% is unscientific and !isleading , and its Su!!ar/ for
Polic/!a$ers are political docu!ents that de"iate su+stantiall/ fro! the su+stance of the reports the/ are supposed to su!!ariIe( #1PCC reports ha"e fe4er authors and contri+utors than the 1PCC reports, +ut this is +ecause go"ern!ents and uni"ersities in"est !an/ !illions of dollars into the 1PCC report, 4hereas the #1PCC reports are financed entirel/ +/ pri"ate contri+utions fro! indi"iduals and foundations( #1PCC is Da"id to the 1PCC6s Coliath( But in the end, this doesn6t !atter&

4ith nearl/ <0 authors, contri+utors, and re"ie4ers fro! 1< countries, N*P33 clearly has the academic firepo'er needed to produce a comprehensi#e and authoritati"e report #es+it clai!s
the #1PCC e5a!ines literature pu+lished e5clusi"el/ +/ cli!ate contrarians 4ho are paid to contri+ute their findings to #1PCC reports(% 7his is nonsense( #earl/ 9,000 peer&re#ie'ed articles are cited in Cli!ate Change Beconsidered 11& Ph/sical Science, including

significant representation from leading :ournals such as #ature and Science( #1PCC cites many of the same sources as the *P33 1ndeed, in critical chapters, #1PCC cites !ore 2and !ore recent3 scientific sources than does the 1PCC(

+N3 ;2tensions
;2tend and prefer our Lomborg e#idence, it cites the most recent *P33 report and ma(es three (ey claims5 1< No *mpact to Warming little or no temperature increase in the past +0 years and their climate models o#erestimate by 1$9% mean that 'arming impacts are implausible +< Warming is good cold deaths #astly out'eigh heat deaths and 3=+ is (ey plant producti#ity 3< Warming >hetoric is bad their rhetoric leads to ineffecti#e and costly policies 4nd, the *P33 is the golden standard in the 'orld of climate research ?arma 9/30 [Su+odh, Beporter for 7i!es of 1ndia, 2013, Planet Bacing 7o4ards 28C 7e!perature Bise& 0# Beport,%
http&''ti!esofindia(indiati!es(co!'ho!e'en"iron!ent'glo+al*4ar!ing'Planet*racing*to4ards*2C*te!perature*rise*0#* report'articlesho4'232;;1<1(c!s, Eo4 scientific and ro+ust is the 1PCCTs state!ents and predictionsD 7he 4hole process in"ol"ed 9,+00 scientific

studies, re"ie4ed +/ 10!9 e2perts fro! << countries 4or$ing in a !ultistage process( 7he/ recei"ed $9, @// comments fro! scientists across the 4orld( -"er + million gigabytes of nu!erical data 4as anal/Ied +efore +09 authors put together the draft report( 7hen representati"es of 1)< countries 'ent o#er it 'ord by 'ord =ost scientists agree that the 1PCCTs reports are on the conser#ati#e side +ecause the/ are forced to acco!!odate e"er/+od/, including go"ern!ents that are 4ar/ of sounding too alar!ist( 1n the present report, for instance, t4o o+ser"ed facts leading to increasing car+on dio5ide release are not full/ ta$en a+oard * the !elting of permafrost and ocean acidification( Scientists ha"e o+ser"ed that +oth these on*going processes 4ill cause an e#en greater amount of car+on dio5ide to +e released 2or re!ain una+sor+ed3 than +efore( But these are not full/ spelt out /et( Si!ilarl/ 'arming of the deep sea 2+e/ond ;00 feet3 is also not full/ descri+ed or accounted for as the 1PCC stopped collecting e"idence : !onths ago, in order to start the consultation process(

*P33 Prodict
*P33 A this shit is too legit to .uit ?arma 9/30 [Su+odh, Beporter for 7i!es of 1ndia, 2013,
Planet Bacing 7o4ards 28C 7e!perature Bise& 0# Beport,% http&''ti!esofindia(indiati!es(co!'ho!e'en"iron!ent'glo+al*4ar!ing'Planet*racing*to4ards*2C*te!perature*rise*0#* report'articlesho4'232;;1<1(c!s, Eo4 scientific and ro+ust is the 1PCCTs state!ents and predictionsD 7he 4hole process in"ol"ed 9,+00 scientific

studies, re"ie4ed +/ 10!9 e2perts fro! << countries 4or$ing in a !ultistage process( 7he/ recei"ed $9, @// comments fro! scientists across the 4orld( -"er + million gigabytes of nu!erical data 4as anal/Ied +efore +09 authors put together the draft report( 7hen representati"es of 1)< countries 'ent o#er it 'ord by 'ord =ost scientists agree that the 1PCCTs reports are on the conser#ati#e side +ecause the/ are forced to acco!!odate e"er/+od/, including go"ern!ents that are 4ar/ of sounding too alar!ist( 1n the present report, for instance, t4o o+ser"ed facts leading to increasing car+on dio5ide release are not full/ ta$en a+oard * the !elting of permafrost and ocean acidification( Scientists ha"e o+ser"ed that +oth these on*going processes 4ill cause an e#en greater amount of car+on dio5ide to +e released 2or re!ain una+sor+ed3 than +efore( But these are not full/ spelt out /et( Si!ilarl/ 'arming of the deep sea 2+e/ond ;00 feet3 is also not full/ descri+ed or accounted for as the 1PCC stopped collecting e"idence : !onths ago, in order to start the consultation process(

4)5 *P33 Ne' >eport


-uc( yo *P33 report shit 3lar( 10// [Duncan, Consultant Kditor for Cuardian Kn"iron!ent, a Misiting Besearcher at the 0CH Knerg/ 1nstitute and Co*
.ounder of Digital Journalis! Co!pan/ Siln, 2013, 0# Cli!ate Change Panel& 74o Craphs 7hat 7ell the Beal Stor/ of the 1PCC Beport,% http&''444(theguardian(co!'en"iron!ent'+log'2013'oct'0;'un*cli!ate*change*panel*graphs*ipcc*report, =illions of 4ords ha"e +een 4ritten a+out the ne4 report fro! the 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate Change 21PCC3( But for !e, t4o

$e/ !essages stand out N one for its i!portance, the other for its lac$ of i!portance, relati"e to the attention that it has recei"ed( Since our interacti"e graph a+out te!peratures in /our
lifeti!e has generated so !uch interest, 1 thought 1Td do a graph to e5plain each of these t4o points too( Co!!entators such as =att Bidle/ and Da"id Bose 4ho are $een to pla/ do4n the i!portance

of cli!ate

change, plus the editorial tea! at the Kcono!ist, ha"e !ade a lot of noise a+out the fact that the ne4 1PCC report contains reduced esti!ates for the Tsensiti"it/T of the cli!ate to increased le"els of greenhouse gas in the air(
An/ e"idence that the cli!ate is less sensiti"e to car+on than 4e pre"iousl/ thought is good ne4s& it !eans 4e can e5pect less 4ar!ing fro! an/ gi"en car+on concentration, reducing the ris$ of dangerous i!pacts( But as !/ first graph !a$es clear,

the gains are actuall/ rather s!all( 1t sho4s four 1PCC e!issions scenarios, fro! the highest 2BCP >(<, 4hich so far reflects +usiness as usual3 to the lo4est 2BCP 3PD, 4hich in"ol"es actions 4ell +e/ond the scope of 4hat is currentl/ seen as politicall/ plausi+le, 4ith e!issions falling steepl/ al!ost straight a4a/ and hu!ans +eco!ing car+on negati"e later in the centur/3( .or each scenario, the graph allo4s /ou to co!pare future 4ar!ing +ased on esti!ates of the cli!ateTs sensiti"it/ fro! the pre"ious and ne4 1PCC reports( 7he conclusion& this is reall/ no game changer( -n current e!issions trends, it !eans glo+al 4ar!ing of up to @3 rather than /3 o"er
the ne5t centur/, relati"e to preindustrial le"els( Aith lo4 e!issions, itTs the difference +et4een an upper*end 4ar!ing of around 3(<C and 3C in the sa!e ti!efra!e N an i!pro"e!ent, /es, +ut hardly reassuring .or those 4anting to understand the nu!+ers on the graph, the sensiti"it/

of the cli!ate to C-2 is usuall/ descri+ed in ter!s of t4o factors& the transient cli!ate response 27CB3, 4hich is the a!ount of 4ar!ing that 4e can e5pect +/ the ti!e that car+on e!issions reach dou+le their preindustrial le"elsR and eFuili+riu! cli!ate sensiti"it/ 2KCS3, 4hich
is the 2larger3 te!perature rise that 4ould ulti!atel/ ensue if those dou+led C-2 concentrations persisted long enough for the 4orld to settle into a ne4 sta+le state( #either 7CB nor KCS can +e precisel/ pinned do4nR instead scientists esti!ate

upper and lo4er "alues for each( 7he ne4 1PCC report re"ised do4n the upper esti!ate of 7CB and the lo4er esti!ate of KCS( -ne cli!ate scientist su!!ed up the i!portance of these changes to !e succinctl/& V Which one mattersB Aell, neither of them, if 4eTre honest(V -ne $e/ thing to understand a+out 7CB and KCS is that a dou+ling of preindustrial C-2 le"els is just a con"enient +ut ar+itrar/ point for scientists to use for their calculations( #o*one is sa/ing that dou+led C-2 has an/ relation to 4hatTs actuall/ going to happen( Aorr/ingl/, the 0STs en"iron!ent !inister -4en Paterson
appears to ha"e co!pletel/ !isunderstood this( Ee told journalists recentl/ that 4e donTt need to 4orr/ !uch a+out cli!ate change +ecause the ne4 1PCC report sa/s 4eTre on trac$ onl/ for 4ar!ing of 1N2(<C( But those are the figures for the 7CB N a "aria+le for cli!ate !odels, not a forecast( 1t 4ould +e funn/, 4ere it not so alar!ing, that Paterson has got so +adl/ confused( 1n realit/, 4eTre li$el/ to hit a cli!ate forcing eFui"alent to dou+le preindustrial C-2 +/ mid&

century e#en 'ith reasonably ambitious e!issions cuts, and e"en sooner on current trends At that point 4eTd need to s4itch off e"er/ re!aining fossil fuel*+urning "ehicle, +oiler and po4er station o"ernight, in order for PatersonTs 1N2(<C to +e realistic( Perhaps thatTs his idea of a cli!ate change
!itigation planD

7he reall/ +ig ne4s in the ne4 1PCC report is the recognition of so!ething that "arious scientific papers ha"e !ade clear o"er the past fe4 /ears& that to a"oid an/ gi"en te!perature rise, the 4orld needs to set itself an all&time carbon budget 7he reason is that car+on accu!ulates in the air o"er ti!e, so itTs the total a!ount of car+on e!itted since the industrial re"olution N cu!ulati"el/ N that deter!ines the le"el of 4ar!ing( =/ second graph sho4s this, de!onstrating that no !atter 4hat e!issions scenario the 4orld follo4s, thereTs a roughl/ straight*line relationship +et4een te!perature rise and cu!ulati"e

7es Warming

e!issions( 1t also highlights the o+"ious +ut often o"erloo$ed point that e"en 4hen annual e!issions are falling, cu!ulati"e e!issions are still rising( As the graph sho4s, for a decent chance of limiting 'arming to 2C, as the 4orld has agreed to do, the glo+al car+on +udget is around a trillion tonnes of car+on 24hich eFuates to 3(; trillion tonnes of C-23, gi"e or ta$e a +it depending on !uch ris$ of failure 4eTre prepared to accept( -f that total, !ore than half has already been used up, lea"ing a re!aining +udget of around G<0 +illion tonnes( As =i$e Berners*Hee and 1 sho4 in our recent +oo$, 7he Burning Uuestion, thatTs appro5i!atel/ half the car+on in the re!aining fossil fuel reser"es that are alread/ co!!erciall/ "ia+le 2Vpro"enV in the jargon3, and just a s!all fraction of all the fossil fuels re!aining in the ground, including the o+scure and uncon"entional reser"es that co!panies are spending hundreds of
!illions of dollars each /ear tr/ing to +ring to co!!ercial "ia+ilit/( 1n other 4ords, the 1PCC has finall/ confir!ed that to !eet

the agreed glo+al cli!ate target, the "ast !ajorit/ of the re!aining fossil fuel reser"es either need to +e left in the ground or burned only 'ith so!e for! of carbon capture Ae $ne4 this +efore, of course, +ut 4ithout 1PCC recognition, go"ern!ents ha"e +een a+le to a"oid facing up to the i!plications( 1ndeed, negotiators at the 0# cli!ate tal$s ha"e failed so far e"en to discuss the concept of a glo+al car+on +udget in an/ !eaningful 4a/ , focusing instead on
piece!eal national pledges in the +lind hope that one da/ these 4ill add up to a solution( 7han$s to the ne4 report, ho4e"er, "irtuall/ e"er/ go"ern!ent in the 4orld has +een forced to consider and recognise that !ost of the 4orldTs fossil fuel reser"es need to +e left untouched, either fore"er or at least until 4e can capture the car+on( 1f the li$es of -4en Patterson, =att Bidle/ and the Kcono!ist accept the science of the ne4 report, as the/ see! to suggest, this star$ fact is 4hat the/ are i!plicitl/ ac$no4ledging(

4ns'ers the *P33 shit Muller 9/+$ [Bichard, Professor of Ph/sics at the 0ni"ersit/ of California, Ber$ele/, 2013,

A Pause, #ot an Knd, to Aar!ing,% http&''444(n/ti!es(co!'2013'0)'2:'opinion'a*pause*not*an*end*to*4ar!ing(ht!lDrefWglo+al4ar!ing, As /ou !ight guess, s$eptics of 4ar!ing 4ere in full attac$ !ode as the 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate

Change gathered in S4eden this 4ee$ to appro"e its latest findings a+out our 4ar!ing planet( 7he s$eptics argue that this recent plateau illustrates 4hat the/ al4a/s $ne4 9 that co!ple5 glo+al cli!ate !odels ha"e no predicti"e capa+ilit/ and that, therefore, there is no proof of glo+al 4ar!ing, hu!an*caused or
not( Creenhouse theorists appear to +e on the defensi"e as the/ offer different e5planations for the letup 9 that deep ocean 4ater !a/ +e draining so!e 4ar!th fro! the at!osphere, that increases in high*altitude 4ater "apor !a/ +e responsi+le or that nu!erous s!all "olcanic eruptions are the cause( =/ anal/sis is different( Ber$ele/ Karth, a tea! of scientists 1 helped esta+lish, found

that the a"erage land te!perature had risen 1(< degrees Celsius o"er the past 2<0 /ears( Solar "aria+ilit/ didn6t !atch the patternR greenhouse gases did ( As for the recent plateau, 1
predicted it, +ac$ in 200G( Aell, not e5actl/( 1n an essa/ pu+lished online then at =17 7echnolog/ Be"ie4, 1 4orried that the fa!ous hoc$e/ stic$% graph plotted +/ three A!erican cli!atologists in the late 1))0s portra/ed the glo+al 4ar!ing cur"e 4ith too !uch certaint/ and inappropriate si!plicit/( 7he graph sho4s a long, relati"el/ un4a"ering line of te!peratures across the last !illenniu! 2the stic$3, follo4ed +/ a sharp, up4ard turn of 4ar!ing o"er the last centur/ 2the +lade3( 7he up4ard turn i!plied that greenhouse gases had +eco!e so do!inant that future te!peratures 4ould rise 4ell a+o"e their "aria+ilit/ and closel/ trac$ car+on dio5ide le"els in the at!osphere( 1 $ne4 that 4asn6t the case( 7he planet 4ar!ed +/ 0(: degrees o"er the prior <0

/ears, +ut occasional, une5plained te!perature fluctuations of as !uch as 0(3 degrees countered the rise at ti!es and resulted in apparent pauses( So!e of the fluctuations !ight ha"e +een caused +/ shifting ocean currents related to the Culf Strea! and Kl #iPo 9 the episodic appearance of unusuall/ 4ar! ocean te!peratures along
the 4est coast of South A!erica( Eere6s 4hat 1 4rote in 200G& Suppose((( future !easure!ents in the /ears 200<*201< sho4 a clear and distinct glo+al cooling trend( 21t could happen(3 1f 4e !ista$enl/ too$ the hoc$e/ stic$ seriousl/ 9 that is, if 4e

+elie"ed that natural fluctuations in cli!ate are s!all 9 then 4e !ight conclude 2!ista$enl/3 that the cooling could not +e just a rando! fluctuation on top of a long*ter! 4ar!ing trend, since according to the hoc$e/ stic$, such fluctuations are negligi+le( And that !ight lead in turn to the !ista$en conclusion that glo+al 4ar!ing predictions are a lot of hooe/( 1f, on the other hand, 4e reject the hoc$e/ stic$, and recogniIe that natural fluctuations can +e large, then 4e 4ill not +e !isled +/ a fe4 /ears of rando! cooling(% -(S(, 1 didn6t actuall/ predict a pause in the 4ar!ing +ut a possi+le period of cooling( But that6s close enough( Ae are no4 in that pause, and too !an/ people are ta$ing it too seriousl/ , not just the s$eptics and the !edia +ut
e"en the greenhouse*4ar!ing ad"ocates( Ae don6t full/ understand past "ariations, +ut there is a theore! in science& if it happens, it !ust +e possi+le( 7he freFuent rises and falls, "irtuall/ a stair*step pattern, are part of the historic record,

and there is no e5pectation that the/ 4ill stop, 4hate"er their cause( A realistic prediction si!pl/ includes a si!ilar "aria+ilit/ as an une5plained co!ponent( -f course, there are scientists 4ho thought the/ had
e5plained the "aria+ilit/( Pre"ious pauses in te!perature rise in 1)>2 and 1))1 4ere attri+uted to the ash and sulfur aerosols spe4ed into the at!osphere +/ the "olcanic eruptions of Kl ChichXn in =e5ico and Pinatu+o in the Philippines, respecti"el/( 1 ne"er found

those attri+utions co!pellingR in particular, the eruption of Kl ChichXn 4as too s!all to account for the stall in 4ar!ing that 4as attri+uted to it( 1 suspect it 4as !ore li$el/ that the "ariations 4ere the result of chaotic changes in ocean

currents( Because of the insta+ilit/ of ocean flo4, the +est e"idence of a changing cli!ate !a/ +e the land te!perature record( 1t is full of fits and starts that !a$e the up4ard trend "anish for short periods( Begardless of 4hether 4e understand the!, there is no reason to e5pect the! to stop( 7he +est statistical
test of an o+ser"ation is to see if it has happened naturall/ in the past( =ost of us hope that glo+al 4ar!ing actuall/ has stopped( 2#ot e"er/oneR so!e argue that the 4ar!ing is good(3 Perhaps the negati"e feed+ac$ of cloud co"er has $ic$ed in, da!pening glo+al 4ar!ing, or the ocean a+sorption of at!ospheric heat is pla/ing a ne4 and !ore decisi"e role( Alas, 1 thin$ such opti!is! is

pre!ature( 7he current pause is consistent 4ith nu!erous prior pauses( Ahen 4al$ing up stairs in a tall +uilding, it is a !ista$e to interpret a landing as the end of the cli!+( 7he slo4 rate of 4ar!ing of the recent past is consistent 4ith the $ind of "aria+ilit/ that so!e of us predicted nearl/ a decade ago( More ans'ering shit ?arma 9/30 [Su+odh, Beporter for 7i!es of 1ndia, 2013,
Planet Bacing 7o4ards 28C 7e!perature Bise& 0# Beport,% http&''ti!esofindia(indiati!es(co!'ho!e'en"iron!ent'glo+al*4ar!ing'Planet*racing*to4ards*2C*te!perature*rise*0#* report'articlesho4'232;;1<1(c!s, 7he report issued on Septe!+er 2; +/ the 0#Ts intergo"ern!ental panel on cli!ate change 21PCC3 !a/ sound

si!ilar to the one issued fi"e /ears ago * after all, it sa/s that hu!anit/ is causing cli!ate change, though 4ith !ore certaint/( But on t4o $e/ aspects this report has categoricall/ said 4hat 4as ne"er said +efore( 7he first is that the car+on accu!ulation in the at!osphere and resulting glo+al 4ar!ing ha"e +lo4n a4a/ the 2 degree Celsius tipping point that 4as earlier set( 7he present report sa/s that to li!it 4ar!ing to a rise of 2 degrees Celsius a+o"e pre*industrial le"els, 1,000 gigatons 2trillion !etric tons3 is the outer li!it of car+on dio5ide that can +e e!itted( Eo4e"er, +/ 2011 hu!ans had alread/ e!itted <31 gigatons( 7hat lea"es "er/ little 4iggle roo!( According to cli!ate change e5perts, the 1,000*gigaton li!it !a/ 4ell +e crossed in the ne5t 2< /ears( 7he 4orld has a total of 2,;)< gigatons 4orth of car+on in the for! of fossil fuels and reser"es( Burning just 10? of these 4ould ta$e the earth o"er the tipping point( 7hatTs the star$ !essage co!ing fro! the 1PCC report( 7he report !a$es the second categorical assertion regarding sea le"el rise( 1t sa/s that sea le"els are projected to rise +/ 2>*); centi!etres +/ 2100( 7his is o"er <0? !ore than the pre"ious projection of 1>*<)? o"er the sa!e period( 7his increase is !ainl/ +ecause of +etter esti!ation !ethods and !ore o+ser"ations( B/ the /ear 2300, it is projected that seas 4ill +e higher +/ up to a catacl/s!ic 3 !eters(

4)5 N*P33 >eport


)he N*P33 report is biased and :ust plain 'rong Carlsson 10/31 [K!il, =(A( in Biolog/, Bac$ground in =olecular Biolog/, 1!!unolog/ and Bioinfor!atics, 2013,
Cli!ate Change 2#1PCC3 loo$s #1PCC and Cli!ate Change Denialis!,% http&''de+un$ingdenialis!(co!'2013'10'31'nipcc*and*cli!ate*change*denialis!', 7o an unsuspecting "isitor, the 4e+site for the decepti"el/ na!ed #ongo"ern!ental 1nternational Panel for

clean and professional( 7he/ purport to +e an independent association of scientists that 4ish to understand factors influencing cli!ate change and the conseFuences of such changes( 7he/ clai! that the/, unli$e the 1PCC, loo$ at the full range of e"idence regarding the cli!ate and are unfettered +/ political ideolog/ and +ias( Eo4e"er, +eneath the surface e"er/thing is not 4hat it appeared to +e at first sight( #1PCC is a group 4ith o#ert ties to the conser"ati"e anti&science organiIation $no4n as the Deartland *nstitute, an organiIation that has spent a lot of effort tr/ing to spread pseudoscientific uncertainty and doubt regarding the lin$ +et4een second*hand s!o$e and negati"e health conseFuences( 7he/ are also one of the !ost "ocal defenders of cli!ate change denialis! in the 0( S( Becentl/, the #1PCC released a report called Cli!ate Change Beconsidered 11& Ph/sical Science, calling it an independent, co!prehensi"e, and authoritati"e report on the current state of cli!ate science%( 1n realit/, it is a +oo$*length regurgitation of the same stale myths that cli!ate change denialists ha"e +een deplo/ing for the past decade in a desperate effort to spread !isinfor!ation regarding glo+al 4ar!ing and the role of hu!an contri+uting factors( 7his article e5a!ines all of the core clai!s !ade +/ #1PCC in their su!!ar/ for polic/!a$ers( 7heir list contains thirteen
clai!s, +ut !an/ of the clai!s are repeated in different 4a/s 2presu!a+l/ to artificiall/ inflate their position3( Car+on dio5ide is not saturated -ne of the !ost persistent !/ths a+out car+on dio5ide in the at!osphere is that it is either

saturated or at the "erge of +eco!ing saturated( Eo4e"er, this is +ased on the false notion that the at!osphere is a single unit instead of +eing la/ered( BealCli!ate e5plains& Ahat happens if 4e add !ore car+on dio5ideD 1n the la/ers so high and thin that !uch of the heat radiation fro! lo4er do4n slips through, adding !ore greenhouse gas !olecules !eans the layer 'ill absorb more of the rays So the place fro! 4hich !ost of the heat energ/ finall/ lea"es the Karth 4ill shift to higher la/ers( 7hose are colder
la/ers, so the/ do not radiate heat as 4ell( 7he planet as a 4hole is no4 ta$ing in !ore energ/ than it radiates 24hich is in fact our current situation3( As the higher le"els radiate so!e of the e5cess do4n4ards, all the lo'er le#els

do'n to the surface 'arm up

7he i!+alance !ust continue until the high le"els get hot enough to radiate as !uch

energ/ +ac$ out as the planet is recei"ing( An/ saturation

at lo4er le"els 4ould not change this, since it is the la/ers fro! 4hich radiation does escape that deter!ine the planet6s heat +alance( Satellite !easure!ents also de!onstrate that additional greenhouse effects occur as the concentration of car+on dio5ide in the at!osphere continue to rise( Kssentiall/, the car+on dio5ide is saturated fallac/ relies on not
understanding that it is the energ/ +alance for the planet depends on the high troposphere( BealCli!ate su!s it up nicel/& So, if a s$eptical friend hits /ou 4ith the saturation argu!ent% against glo+al 4ar!ing, here6s all /ou need to sa/& 2a3 @ou6d still get

an increase in greenhouse 'arming e"en if the at!osphere 4ere saturated, +ecause it6s the a+sorption in the thin upper at!osphere 24hich is unsaturated3 that counts 2+3 *t1s not e#en true that the atmosphere is actuall/ saturated 4ith respect to a+sorption +/ C-2, 2c3 Water #apor doesn1t o#er'helm the effects of C-2 +ecause there6s little 4ater "apor in the high, cold regions fro! 4hich
infrared escapes, and at the lo4 pressures there 4ater "apor a+sorption is li$e a lea$/ sie"e, 4hich 4ould let a lot !ore radiation through 4ere it not for C-2, and 2d3 7hese issues 4ere satisfactoril/ addressed +/ ph/sicists <0 /ears ago,

and the necessar/ ph/sics is included in all cli!ate !odels( .eed+ac$ effects are crucial for understanding cli!ate change and cannot +e dis!issed 1n an atte!pt to !ini!iIe the i!pact of glo+al 4ar!ing on glo+al a"erage te!peratures in the future, the cli!ate change denialists at the #1PCC dis!iss feed+ac$ effects and clai! that the onl/ rele"ant 4ar!ing is the direct 4ar!ing +/ car+on dio5ide and that this 4ar!ing 24hich the/ thin$ is a fe4 tenths of a degree%3 is negligi+le( 1n realit/, there is plenty of scientific e#idence for positi#e feedbac( effects 7hese include !ore 4ater "apor in the at!osphere, !ore car+on dio5ide release fro! the oceans, !ethane release fro! the Si+erian arctic, dr/ing out of rainforests, deco!position, forest fires, desertification , so!e cloud feed+ac$, replace!ent of ice 4ith 4ater and so on( 7here are also negati"e feed+ac$ effects, such as other $inds of cloud feed+ac$s, the solu+ilit/ of
car+on dio5ide in the oceans, !ore pri!ar/ production 2i(e( !ore car+on sin$s in photos/nthetic organis!s3 and so on( Eo4e"er,

researchers consider positi"e feed+ac$ process to +e stronger than negati"e feed+ac$s, so the/

cannot +e !ini!iIed or dis!issed +/ cli!ate change denialists( Clo+al 4ar!ing has not ta$en a +rea$ -ne of the !ost decepti"e techniFues used +/ cli!ate change denialists is to construct trend lines that appear to sho4 that there has +een no glo+al 4ar!ing since 1))> +/ cherry&pic(ing the start and end points 7he follo4ing ani!ated graph illustrates this techniFue&1))> 4as an especiall/ 4ar! /ear due to short* ter! noise pro"ided +/ a strong Kl #iPo( 1f /ou filter out a lot of the short*ter! noise, such as Kl #iPo*Southern -scillation, solar and "olcanic acti"it/, there ha"e +een no halt in 4ar!ing since 1))> &7his denialist approach also a+uses statistical significance tests +/ asserting that no statisticall/ significant% 4ar!ing has occurred since 1))>( Eo4e"er, statistical significance relates to ho4 pro+a+le the o+ser"e data, or !ore
e5tre!e data, are on the null h/pothesis, not the practical significance of the o+ser"ed trend( 7his alleged lac$ of statistical significance% onl/ +ecause of not controlling for the short*ter! noise( 7he concern is that the rate of cli!ate change

is faster than during natural #ariability -ne $e/ factor that influences the i!pact of cli!ate change is the rate at 4hich it ta$es place( A "er/ slo4 cli!ate change allo4s ani!als and plants to adapt o"er ti!e to the ne4 cli!ate para!eters( A cli!ate change that occurs at a faster rate 4ill outpace the e"olutionar/ adaptation and therefore ha"e har!ful conseFuences for ani!als, plants and regional ecologies( #1PCC repeatedl/ deplo/ the !isleading clai! that the current te!perature and car+on dio5ide le"el has occurred historicall/ and therefore sho4s that 213 hu!ans are not a considera+le contri+ution factor to the
current trends and 223 that these trends do not represent an/ pro+le! for hu!ans, other organis!s or the general en"iron!ent( As 4e sa4 a+o"e, this !isunderstands the situation( During the natural "aria+ilit/ during the Ca!+rian and recent geological ti!e, organis!s

had ti!e to adapt and e"ol"e( During periods of rapid cli!ate change, this is unli$el/ to +e the case for a lot of species( Cli!ate change 4ill ha"e har!ful conseFuences for hu!an health, the econo!/ and en"iron!ent ConseFuences of glo+al cli!ate change includes ocean acidification, coral +leaching, !elting glaciers and polar ice caps, rise in sea le"el, !ore e5tre!e 4eather e"ents, changes in the distri+ution of infectious diseases, species e5tinctions and so on( 7here is a!ple e"idence that there 4ill +e !an/ harmful effects of cli!ate change on human health, the economy and the en#ironment at large( #atural forcings alone cannot account for the o+ser"ed 4ar!ing 1n the
s/nthesis report of ABG fro! 200;, 4e can find the follo4ing i!age&7he +lue line sho4s !odels onl/ ta$ing natural forcings into account, pin$ lines represents natural and anthropogenic forcings and the +lac$ line represents o+ser"ational data( As 4e can see, the +lac$ line falls outside the +lue for each continent, as 4ell as glo+all/( 7his !eans that natural forcings alone cannot

account for the o+ser"ed 4ar!ing trend( 7hus, the claim that it is :ust all natural% 2i(e( no su+stantial hu!an influence3 is falsified by the data 7he car+on dio5ide fertiliIation effect is !ore co!ple5 and "aria+le than #1PCC thin$s 1t is true that car+on dio5ide is the li!iting reagent in so!e areas of the
4orld( =ore car+on dio5ide 4ould therefore !ean !ore plant gro4th( 7his could +e +eneficial +/ producing !ore food and !ore plants to act as sin$s for at!ospheric car+on dio5ide( Eo4e"er, the situation is !ore co!ple5 than that for se"eral

reasons( #itrogen 4ill Fuic$l/ +eco!e a li!iting reactant +ecause the proportion of nitrogen per +io!ass unit produced 4ill decrease( 7his !eans that photos/nthesis 4ill +e do4n*regulated +ecause a $e/ enI/!e in the car+on fi5ation c/cle called Bu+isco has a high nitrogen content( .urther!ore, plants 4ith different for!s of !eta+olis! 2C3, CG and CA=3 4ill react differentl/ and for so!e this fertiliIation effect is not as large as pre"iousl/ thought( =ost enI/!es ha"e an opti!al te!perature for 4hich their acti"it/ is greatest(
Ho4er te!peratures reduces the nu!+er of interactions that has sufficient energ/ to o"erco!e the acti"ation energ/ reFuired for reaction( 7oo high te!peratures o"er the opti!u! and the/ start to lose their three*di!ensional

structure that is often "ital for their proper function( So!e plants !a/ currentl/ gro4 in a cli!ate 4here the te!perature is +elo4 the opti!al te!perature, and so an increase in te!perature 4ill lead to a higher enI/!e acti"it/( But there are pro+a+l/ also those plants that gro4 in areas 4ere the te!perature is a+o"e the opti!al te!perature, and an increase in te!perature 4ill lead to an e"en lo4er enI/!e acti"it/( 7his !eans that there are places around the 4orld 4ere global 'arming 'ill lead to less crop success and yield, e"en 4hen ta$ing into account the car+on dio5ide fertiliIation effect( 7here are also related issues surrounding agriculture that needs to +e ta$en into account, such as 4ater suppl/ and large*scale fires( 7here is no guarantee that 'ater supplies 'ill not be affected +/ droughts and floods and a higher fre.uency of 'ildfires could +e de"astating for agriculture( Bidirectional causation +et4een higher te!peratures and !ore at!ospheric car+on dio5ide #o one is clai!ing that car+on dio5ide is the onl/ factor that had contri+uted to cli!ate change in the histor/ of the earth( Bather, the clai! is that hu!an e!issions of car+on dio5ide and other anthropogenic greenhouse gases is a su+stantial influence on the current 4ar!ing trend( Harge*scale changes in or+ital forcings +/ natural changes in eccentricit/, tilt and

precession contri+uted to the end of the last ice age( 7his initial 4ar!ing cause additional car+on dio5ide to enter the at!osphere fro! the ocean, 4hich lead to e"en !ore 4ar!ing( 7he car+on dio5ide lags te!perature% di"ersion falls apart

once /ou notice that !ore car+on dio5ide and higher te!perature cause each other in a feed+ac$ process( Conclusion 7he Eeartland 1nstitute is ra!ping up their atte!pt to spread !isinfor!ation a+out cli!ate change and glo+al 4ar!ing +/ ha"ing their decepti"el/ na!ed organiIation #1PCC putting out pseudoscientific and denialist reports% that a!ount to little else than the mindless repetition of denialist myths that ha#e been refuted many times pre#iously

4)5 3=+ 4g
Warming destroys food productionEmost recent studies Fillis 11/1 [Justin, Staff Ariter for the #e4 @or$ 7i!es, Citing a #e4 Beport +/ the 1PCC, 2013,
Cli!ate Change Seen Posing Bis$ to .ood Supplies,% http&''444(n/ti!es(co!'2013'11'02'science'earth'science*panel*4arns*of*ris$s*to*food*suppl/*fro!* cli!ate*change(ht!l, Cli!ate change 4ill pose sharp ris(s to the 'orld1s food supply in co!ing decades, potentiall/

undermining crop production and dri#ing up prices at a ti!e 4hen the de!and for food is e5pected to soar, scientists ha"e found( 1n a departure fro! an earlier assess!ent, the scientists concluded that rising te!peratures 4ill ha"e so!e +eneficial effects on crops in so!e places, +ut that glo+all/ the/ 4ill !a$e it harder for crops to thri#e 9 perhaps reducing production o"er all +/ as !uch as 2 percent each decade for the rest of this centur/, co!pared 4ith 4hat it 4ould +e 4ithout cli!ate change( And, the scientists sa/, the/ are alread/ seeing the har!ful effects in so!e regions( 7he 4arnings co!e in a lea$ed draft of a report under de"elop!ent +/ a 0nited #ations panel, the 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate Change( 7he docu!ent is not final and could change +efore it is released in =arch( 7he report also finds other s4eeping i!pacts fro! cli!ate change alread/ occurring across the planet, and 4arns that these are li(ely to intensify as hu!an e!issions of greenhouse gases continue to rise( 7he scientists descri+e a natural 4orld in tur!oil as plants and ani!als coloniIe ne4 areas to escape rising te!peratures, and 4arn that many could become e2tinct 7he 4arning on the food suppl/ is the sharpest in tone the panel has issued( 1ts pre"ious report, in 200;, 4as !ore hopeful( Ahile it did 4arn of ris$s and
potential losses in output, particularl/ in the tropics, that report found that gains in production at higher latitudes 4ould !ost li$el/ offset the losses and ensure an adeFuate glo+al suppl/( 7he ne4 tone reflects a large +od/ of research in recent

/ears that has sho4n ho4 sensiti"e crops appear to +e to heat 4a"es( 7he recent 4or$ also challenges pre"ious assu!ptions a+out ho4 !uch food production could increase in co!ing decades +ecause of higher car+on dio5ide le"els in the at!osphere( 7he gas, though it is the !ain reason for glo+al 4ar!ing, also acts as a $ind of fertiliIer for plants( 7he 1ntergo"ern!ental Panel on Cli!ate Change is the principal scientific +od/ charged 4ith re"ie4ing and assessing cli!ate science, then issuing reports a+out the ris$s to the 4orld6s
go"ern!ents( 1ts !ain reports co!e out e"er/ fi"e to si5 /ears( 7he group 4on the #o+el Peace PriIe, along 4ith Al Core, in 200; for its efforts( Eundreds of +illions of dollars are +eing spent e"er/ /ear to reduce e!issions in response to past findings fro! the group, though !an/ anal/sts ha"e said these efforts are so far inadeFuate to head off drastic cli!atic changes later in the centur/( -n the food suppl/, the ne4 report finds that +enefits fro! glo+al 4ar!ing !a/ +e seen in so!e areas, li$e

northern lands that are no4 !arginal for food production( But it adds that o"er all, glo+al 4ar!ing could reduce agricultural production +/ as !uch as + percent each decade for the rest of this century During that period, demand is e2pected to rise as !uch as 19 percent each decade, the report found, as the 4orld population is projected to gro4 to )(: +illion in 20<0, fro! ;(2 +illion toda/, according to the 0nited #ations, and as !an/ of those people in de"eloping countries acFuire the !one/ to eat richer diets( An/ shortfall 4ould lead to rising food prices that 4ould hit the 4orld6s poor hardest, as has alread/ occurred fro! price increases of recent /ears( Besearch has found that cli!ate change, particularl/ se"ere heat 4a"es, 4as a factor in those price spi$es( 7he agricultural ris$s are greatest for tropical countries, gi"en projected i!pacts that e5ceed adapti"e capacit/ and higher po"ert/ rates co!pared 4ith te!perate regions,% the draft report finds( 1f the report pro"es to +e correct a+out the effect on crops fro! cli!ate change, glo+al food de!and !ight ha"e to +e !et 9 if it can +e !et 9 +/ putting ne4 land into production( 7hat could entail chopping do'n large areas of forest, an action that 4ould onl/ accelerate climate change +/ sending su+stantial a!ounts of car+on dio5ide into the air from the destruction of trees

4)5 GM6
Warming disrupts GM6 production 6cience Gaily !/+@ [Science #e4s, Citing nu!erous scientists fro! the =a5 Planc$ 1nstitute for =eterolog/, 2013,
Cli!ate Change& -cean acidification A!plifies Clo+al Aar!ing,% http&''444(sciencedail/(co!'releases'2013'0>'130>2:0)<>G:(ht!, Scientists at the =a5 Planc$ 1nstitute for =eteorolog/ 2=P1*=3, Dr( Satharina Si5, Dr( Sil"ia Sloster, Dr( 7atiana 1l/ina, the late Dr( Krnst =aier*Bei!er and t4o co*authors fro! the 0S, de!onstrate

that ocean acidification !a/ a!plif/ glo+al 4ar!ing through the +iogenic production of the !arine sulfur co!ponent di!eth/lsulphide 2D=S3( 1t is co!!on $no4ledge that fossil fuel e!issions of C-2 lead to glo+al 4ar!ing( 7he ocean, +/ ta$ing up significant a!ounts of C-2, lessens the effect of this anthropogenic distur+ance( 7he VpriceV for storing C-2 is an ongoing decrease
of sea4ater pE 2ocean acidification13, a process that is li$el/ to ha"e di"erse and har!ful i!pacts on !arine +iota, food 4e+s, and ecos/ste!s( 0ntil no4, ho4e"er, cli!ate change and ocean acidification ha"e +een 4idel/ considered as

uncoupled conseFuences of the anthropogenic C-2 pertur+ation2( Becentl/, ocean +iologists !easured in e5peri!ents using sea4ater enclosures 2!esocos!s33 that D=S concentrations 4ere !ar$edl/ lo4er in a lo4*pE en"iron!ent( Ahen D=S is e!itted to the at!osphere it o5idiIes to gas phase sulfuric acid, 4hich can for! ne4 aerosol particles that i!pact cloud al+edo and , hence, cool KarthTs surface( As !arine D=S e!issions are the largest natural source for at!ospheric sulfur, changes in their strength ha"e the potential to nota+l/ alter KarthTs radiation +udget( Based on the results fro! the !esocos! studies the researchers fro! the =P1*= ha"e esta+lished relationships +et4een pE changes and D=S concentrations in sea4ater( 7he/ projected changes in D=S e!issions into the at!osphere in a future cli!ate 4ith enhanced
ocean acidification using the =P1*= Karth s/ste! !odelG( 1n the journal #ature Cli!ate Change it is de!onstrated, that !odeled D=S e!issions decrease +/ a+out 1> 2O33? in 2100 co!pared to preindustrial ti!es as a result of the co!+ined effects of ocean acidification and cli!ate change( 7he reduced D=S e!issions induce

a significant positi"e radiati"e forcing of 4hich >3? 20(G A'!23 can, in the !odel, +e attri+uted to the i!pact of ocean acidification alone( Co!pared to Karth s/ste! response to a dou+ling of at!ospheric C-2 this is tanta!ount to an eFuili+riu! te!perature increase +et4een 0(23 and 0(G> S( Si!pl/ put, their research sho4s that ocean acidification has the potential to speed up glo+al
4ar!ing considera+l/(

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