THREAT_ASSESSMENT

Threat Overview for the 2013 Summer tJniversiade in Kazan Objective

1 This assessment reviews potential threats that could impact on Canadian interests dunng the Summer Universiade (SU a k a World University Games) to be held ir the city of Kazan the
Republic of Tatarstan in the Russian Federation from 2013 07 06 to 2013:07 l7
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Assessment

Islami n/have links with the Tm-li ak.a. Caucasus Emirate), the lamist extremist umbrella group. While 1K attacks are typically aimed at Rissi feal- azid local forces, officials and infrastructure, they have also launched attacks on civi1iahtets outside the North Caucasus, notably in Moscow.
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In a June 2013 video, 1K leader Doku Umarov ended his temporary moratorium on civilian attacks and called on followers to stop the Sohi Winter Olympics, but he made no reference to the SU. 1K has tried to extend its jihad to Tatarstan but Russian counter-terrorism (CT) pressures have been fierce against the group in the North Caucasus.

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Overall Threat Assessment

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Background 27 Summer Universi students and delegation officials venues in Kazan from 2013 07 06 summer and winter games, are held years. Canada anticipates 460 students representation to date. Over 100 family and fri attendees will travel via Moscow.

The SU will draw some 13,500 in 27 sports in over 60 sports ;ity Games, which has both Sports Federation every two nd, making this our largest The majority of foreign

6. Islamist extremism encroaching on Kazan: The host city, Kazan, is among the most developed cities in the Russian Federation and is the capital of the oil-rich Republic of Tatarstan.

POlIil LISLAM1S1 flRRORlSM ThREAT Islamist exirem ism

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latarstaii
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7. Mujahideen of latarstaii kills Iwo.

2(112, pledges allegiance to Imirat Kavkaz:

In July 2012, two attacks in Kazan resulted in Tatarstans chief mufti (cleric), fidus Faizov, being injured by car bomb blasts, and the shooting death of his former deputy, Valiulla Yakupov. Both had spoken against Islamist extremism. The self-described Emir of MT,

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identified as Rais Mingaleyev, claimed responsibility and warned of more violence. In a mid-2012 video, Mingaleyev claimed his group had pledged allegiance to 1K leader Doku Umarov in 2007, and reaffirmed his allegiance. In October 2012. the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that two men involved in the July attacks who were killed by police in Ka.zan had been plotting a major attack in the city. 8. No significant attacks since JuI. 2012: In August 2012, adthoritis attributed an exploded car found west of Kazan with three bodies, a weapon and religioti matefials inside, to the premature detonation of homemade explosives. While the lethal events in July raised fears, there have been no reported attacks since then. Russian authorities remain concerned about increasing Islamist extremist sentiment in Tatarstan, as illustrated by the closure of an extremist mosque in May 2013 and complaints about the radicalizing inlluence of Islamist extremist websites.
9. Returning foreign fighters increase threat: Russian authorities claim there are over 200 Russians, mostly North Caucasians and including some Tatars, fighting in Syria, and express concern over their return, Eye witness accounts allege a building in Syria bears graffiti stating Syria today, Russia tomorrow. One Russian fighter who returned from Syria is alleged to have blown up a gas pipeline before Scating the region.

Islamist extremism in North Cai

10, Imirat Kavkaz leader wants to in: In 2011, Umarov declared that his mujahideen should move to the Volga region, wnicniiciudes Tatarstan, to prepare local Muslims for an armed struggle to establish an Islamic caliphate. The 1K, was responsible for the most recent siificant attacks against civilians, including: the January 2011 bombing of Moscows Domodedovo Airport (36 killed, 200 injured. the March 2010 bombing of Moscow subway (40 killed, 100 injured); and the November 2009 hornbiii ot the Nevskiv Express Train north of Moscow (27 killed, 130 injured). Russian CT pressures have been fierce against 1K, resulting in the reported death of Lmarov S righthand man and the elimination ci many other extremists. 11. Call for attacks against Sochi.Caincs but iw reference to SLJ: According to media reports in early July, in a JiThc 2013 video. 1K leader Doku Umarov ended his moratorium on civilian attacks lie issued in February 2012,and called on followers to stop the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics with th Ose oVmaxirnum force. While Umarov made no reference to the SU in the video, the end el his moLatorium may mean the 1K will return to hitting civilian targets, including outside the North casu.

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Other Islamist extremist groups in surrounding region

12. Russia cites Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan as threal after Moscow plot: In early June 2013, the Director of FSB said the Islamic Movement of Uzbckistan (IMU, a.k.a. the Islamic Party of Turkestan) poses a serious threat to Russia. .Rusin authorities claim they thwarted a group with links to IMU that was planning to launch Ettacks in Moscow. in May 2013, however some commentators dispute whether IMU would launch attacks in Russia. Like IN1U, its offshoot the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) also has a demonstrated capacity for attacks,

OTHER POTENTIAL THREATS / DISRUPTIONS 15. Protest Violence: Past SU games have generated protests due to the impact that prepari iu, the infrastructure has had on the local populations. In Kazan, recent protests have appeared peacellil. including one in March 2013 where activists protested the decision to kill sLiavdogs in the IUfl-U; to the SU.

RUSSIAN SFCURIT MEASURES 17, Russia relying on CT exercises and security measures to ensure safe Summer Universiade: Russia has held a number of Cl exercises, including some in June 2013, in preparing for the SU. In November 2012, the Russian Interior Minister noted that an important task facing the ministry was ensuring security at the SU.

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18. Dress rehearsal for Sochi: Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on his security forces to deliver a safe SU and Sochi Games. The SU, is.the most significant international sporting event taking place in the Russian Federation before the Soc,hi Games. As such, the SU will offer the best opportunity for Russian authorities to ettheVarious security measures it has been implementing for the Sochi Games.
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HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS

This document is the property of the Integrated Teirorism Assessment Centre (ITAC). Prepared by ITAC, it is derived from various sources with information effective as of the date of publication. It is provided to your agency/department in confidence and may be further disseminated by your agency/department to those with appropriate security clearances and appropriate security systems to retain the information. It must not be reclassified or reused in any way, in whole or in part, without the consent of the originator. Any feedback should be directed via email to ITAC at
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This document constitutes a reinird which nay be subject to mandatoiy exemption under the Access to Information Act or the Privacy Act. The information Orpitelligepce may. Jso pe protccted by the provisions of the Canada Evidence Act The mfonnation or mteIIigei(c piustuot 1 clilosecl or used as evidence without prior consultation with ITAC. :

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Imirat Kavkaz calls for attacks on 2013 SummerV yerrsiad in Kazan

KEY POINTS On 2013 07 04 ITAC published Threat Assessment (TA) 13/41 outlining the threat overview for the 2013 Summer Universiade (SU a,k.a World University Games) scheduled to take plac from 2013 07 06 to 2013 07 17 in the city of Kazan, the Republic of Tatarstan Rdsi ITAC is updatin Kavkaz leaders released online video. rovided in that TA to include the Imirat inst the SU in Kazan in a recently

ANALYSIS

1) On 201307 Q4 ITAC published Threat Assessment (TA) 13/41 outlining the threat overview 1 for the 20)3 mnxrUniversiade (SU a k a World University Games) scheduled to take place fro2Q..1 2CI07 17. in the city of Kazan, the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia. 7 9Th
2) 1TAC replIi TA that Inurat Kavkaz leader, Doku Umarov had called on followers tost ibSochi Winter Iyp.pics
/ Umarov is also calling on his mujaheed to stop (ftaj)rte$U Ip the video he states I am calling on all mujahideen, wherever they are in Tatarstan Eashkortostan, or the Caucasus to put maximum effort to disrupt these Satanic dances upo le,.tiones of our ancestors,

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3) 1TAC continues to monitor the situation and i1I iwovide updates as necessary.

HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS is the property of the IntegratedTerroriam Assessment Centre (ITAC), Prepared by ITAC, it is sources with information effective as of the date, of publication; It is provided to your e and may be thither disseminated by your agency/department to those wttls and appropriate security systems to retain the information. It must not be in whole or in part, without the consent of the originator. Any feedback
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be subject to mandatory exemption under the Access ro or intelligence may also be protected by the provisions of the must not he disclosed or used as evidence without prior