ABCs of Project Time Management Planning

of Project Time Management
Planning
Yousef Abugosh, PMP
Section Head of Training - Sipchem
Industrial Jubail, KSA
ABCs of Project Time Management Planning
Yousef Abugosh, PMP - 2010
The Bull Survey (1998)
In 1998, A French computer manufacturer
and systems integrator requested an
independent research company, Spikes
Cavell to conduct a survey in the UK to
identify the major causes of IT project failure
in the finance sector.
Projects Failure
Projects Failure
Project
TEMPORARY ENDEAVOR UNDERTAKEN TO CREATE A
UNIQUE PRODUCT OR SERVICE.
Project Management
THE APPLICATION OF KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS, TOOLS, AND
TECHNIQUES TO PROJECT ACTIVITIES TO MEET PROJECT
REQUIREMENTS.
Reminders
Laws of Project mis-Management
No major project is ever installed on time, within
budget, or with the same staff that started it. Yours
will not be the first.
Projects progress quickly until they become 90%
complete, then they remain at 90% complete
forever.
A carelessly planned project will take three times
longer to complete than expected, but a carefully
planned project may take only twice as long.
Project Planning and Implementation.
by Abraham Shtub, Jonathan F. Bard, and Shlomo Globerson Copyright 1994
by Prentice-Hall, Inc.
OUTLINE
THE WORK BREAK DOWN STRUCTURE
ACTIVITIES DEFINITION
ACTIVITIES SEQUENCING
ACTIVITIES RESOURCES ESTIMATION
ACTIVITIES DURATION ESTIMATION
THE SCHEDULE & THE NETWORK DIAGRAM
1
Project Time Management Components
Activity list
Network
diagram
Resource
Requirements
Activity
durations
Critical path
Schedule
1- Initiating
2- Planning
3- Executing
4- Monitor
& Control
5- Closing
Time
Management
2
Project Time Management Steps
Define
activities
Sequence
them
Estimate
their
resources
Estimate
their
durations
Develop the
schedule
1 2 3
4
3
Developing Project Schedule
Steps
1- Create the WBS
2- Define Activities
3- Sequence Activities
4- Estimate Resources
5- Estimate Activities Durations
6- Develop the Schedule
Scope
Management
Time
Management
8
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
9
The Work Breakdown Structure
WBS
The WBS Definition (PMI)
A deliverable-oriented hierarchical
decomposition of the work to be executed by
the project team to accomplish the project
objectives and create the project deliverables
10
WBS
Activity list
Network
diagram
Staffing
Estimating
Scheduling Budgeting
Quality
management
Risk
management
Project control
WBS
16
Project costs and
risks are estimated
at the work
package level , not
for the project as a
whole.
Resources
(individuals or
parts of the
performing
organization) are
assigned at the
work package
level.
24
WBS
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
34
Activities Definition
1. Use the WBSs work packages to create projects activities
2. An activity is estimated (in duration), scheduled, monitored and
managed in the project schedule.
3. Its a whole-team exercise
Less chances of missing any activity
More accuracy due to group synergy
Provides ownership
35
Activities Definition
MILESTONES
A milestone is an event or accomplishment
marking a significant advance in the
project it is not an activity.
37
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
39
Activities Sequencing
The process of taking the activities and
milestones and putting them in the sequence
in which the work will be performed. The
results is the Network Diagram
Start
End
40
Dig hole Plant tree
Construction
QA/QC
Testing
Documentation
?
?
Finish to Start
Start to Start
Finish to Finish Start to Finish
Network Diagram
Activities Sequencing
LEAD LAG
Design
Coding
5 days
lead
Concreting
Install Columns
7 days
lag
(curing)
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
Activities Resource Estimating
Resources
People
Equipment
Materials
Funds
Intangibles:
Laws
others
Activities Resource Estimating
To Improve Resource Estimate Accuracy
Base it on the WBS,
Assign it to people doing the work,
Rely on historical information from past projects (org.
process assets),
Never allow padding of the estimate,
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
Activities Durations Estimating
How to estimate activity durations:
Durations
Estimate
One-Point
Analogous Parametric
Three-
Point
Also called PERT analysis (Program
Evaluation and Review Technique)
Estimators analyze activities durations
1. when things went very well, optimistic
2. when things went badly, pessimistic
3. when things went normally most likely
Ex: Activity: Driving to Riyadh from Al-Khobar:
(O) 3h:30m
(M) 4h:15m
(P) 6h:00m
Durations
Estimate
One-Point
Analogous Parametric
Three-
Point
Three-
Point
Using the PERT technique, we calculate
the Expected Activity Duration (EAD).
Range of accuracy lies within
EAD-SD ~ to EAD+SD
Three-
Point
EAD = T
o
+ 4 T
m
+ T
p
6
SD (Standard Deviation) =
Most optimistic (T
o
)
Most likely (T
m
)
Most pessimistic (T
p
)
T
p
- T
o
6
VAR (Variance) = SD
2
Ex: Duration Estimation for Activity
Concreting a 10-50CuYd Spread Footings:
Most optimistic (T
o
) = 5 days
Most likely (T
m
) = 8 days
Most pessimistic (T
p
) = 14 days
Three-
Point
EAD = 5 + (4x8) + 14
6
= 8.5 days
EAD = T
o
+ 4 T
m
+ T
p
6
SD =
T
p
- T
o
6
=
14 - 5
6
= 1.5
Estimate Range =
EAD SD ~ EAD +SD
8.5-1.5 ~ 8.5+1.5
Range = 7 To 10
CALCULATING PROJECT DURATION ESTIMATE RANGE:
Step 1
Expected Project Duration (EPD) = EADs
(CP)
Step 2
SD
(project)
== VARs
(CP)
Step 3
Range of the Project Duration Estimate =
EPD SD
(project)
to EPD + SD
(project)
Three-
Point
CALCULATING PROJECT DURATION ESTIMATE RANGE:
Three-
Point
Activity T
P
T
M
T
O
PERT (EAD)
(Expected Activity
Duration)
Activity SD Activity
Variance
A 52 45 41 45.5 1.83 3.34
B 33 25 16 24.8 2.8 8.03
C 22 19 17 19.2 0.83 0.69
D 44 36 25 35.5 3.17 10.05
E 60 56 47 55 2.1 4.41
180.03 26.52
Assuming these are all on the Critical Path,
The Project Duration (EPD) = 45.5 + 24.8 + 19.2 + 35.5 + 55 = 180.03
Project SD = (3.34 + 8.03 + 0.69 + 10.05 + 4.41) = 26.52 = 5.15
Range of Project Duration Estimate = 180 5.15 to 180 + 5.15
= 174.85 to 185.15
T
o
+ 4 T
m
+ T
p
6
Steps
1- Create the WBS
Scope
Management
Time
Management
Schedule
Network
Analysis
What-if
Scenario
Analysis
Resource
Leveling
Critical Chain
Method
Critical Path
Method
Schedule
Compression
Critical Path
Method
Schedule
Compression
Schedule Network Analysis Critical Path Method (CPM)
Critical Path:
Longest duration path through a network diagram,
Shortest possible time to complete the project,
Activities of the critical path have zero (0) float.
Critical Path Method (CPM):
Helps prioritization of urgent response (Focus effort better),
Helps to compress the schedule (during planning & execution),
Helps to determine which activities can be delayed (using floats).
Float (Slack) 3-types
Total Float (Slack) The amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the project end date or an intermediate milestone.
Free Float (Slack) The amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the early start date of its successor(s).
Project Float (Slack) The amount of time an activity can be delayed
without delaying the externally imposed project completion date.
Note: A negative float is the amount of delay in time of an activity on
the CP.
Critical Path
Method
Schedule Network Analysis
The Network Diagram & the Critical Path
Critical Path
Method
EF ES
LF LS
Activity Name
Float =
FLOAT = late start early start
= late finish early finish
( ) ( )
Schedule Network Analysis The Network Diagram & the Critical Path
Critical Path
Method
EF ES
LF LS
Activity Name
Float =
Forward
Pass from
Start to
End
Backward
Pass from
End to
Start
Start
D
E
F
G
B
H
C
A
EF ES
LF LS
Critical Path:
Start-D-E-G-H-C-End = 32
Start-D-F-B-End = 16
Start-A-F-B-End = 18
Start-A-F-G-H-C-End = 33
Example
4
6
End
8 7 5
8
7 5
13 6
6 0
4 0
12 4 18 13
18 13
25 18
33 25
Critical Path
Method
Start
D
Float = 1
E
Float = 1
F
Float = 0
G
Float = 0
B
Float = 15
H
Float = 0
C
Float = 0
A
Float = 0
EF ES
LF LS
Critical Path:
Start-D-E-G-H-C-End = 32
Start-D-F-B-End = 16
Start-A-F-B-End = 18
Start-A-F-G-H-C-End = 33
Example
4
6
End
8 7 5
8
7 5
13 6
6 13
6 0
0 6
4 0
1 5
12 4
5 13
18 13
13 18
18 13
28 33
25 18
18 25
33 25
25 33
Critical Path
Method
Critical Path
Method
A project can have more than one CP.
One CP can change and no longer be a CP.
CP has zero float.
A CP can have a negative float (i.e., project is behind
schedule).
When float is negative, schedule compression is necessary.
Schedule Network Analysis
Schedule
Network
Analysis
What-if
Scenario
Analysis
Resource
Leveling
Critical Chain
Method
Critical Path
Method
Schedule
Compression
Critical Path
Method
Schedule
Compression
Schedule Compression
Mainly, done during the integrated change control (execution
phase) when faced with changes to Time, Scope, Cost, Risk,
Resources, and other factor.
TWO METHODS
1. FAST-TRACKING
2. CRASHING
Schedule Compression
Schedule Network Analysis Schedule Compression
Involves doing critical path activities in parallel that were
originally planned to be done in series.
Usually difficult to achieve successfully rework!
Increases risk requires high levels of communications
and close monitoring!
Schedule
Compression
FAST TRACKING
Schedule Network Analysis Schedule Compression
Involves making cost & schedule trade-offs to determine how
to compress the schedule the most for the least incremental
cost while maintaining the scope.
i.e., if time must change, what option would cause the
least impact on cost?
Usually causes adding resources which increases cost.
The non-CP activities resources can b applied to CP
activities at no additional cost!
Schedule
Compression
CRASHING
Start
D
E
F
G
B
H
C
A
4
6
End
8 7 5
8
7 5
Schedule Network Analysis Schedule Compression Schedule
Compression
Option How to Option How to
Re-estimate Review risks Move people from non CP
activities to G, H, or C
Crashing (Schedule
Compression)
Execute activities H & C in
parallel
Fast-track (schedule
compression)
Cut time Lower quality standards
Add resources to activity G Crashing (Schedule
Compression)
Resist it (Say no) Stand your ground
Remove Activity H Scope reduction Get more work done with
same resources
Work over time
Outsource work on
Activities G, H or C
Crashing (Schedule
Compression)
If you were handed this project with CP of 33 months, and asked to make it happen in 30 months, what
would your options be?
Compression
This project has a float of -3 weeks. Which activity or activities
would you crash to save 3 weeks on the project, assuming all
these activities are on the Critical Path?
Activity Original
Duration
(In weeks)
Crash
Duration
(In weeks)
Time
Savings
(In weeks)
Original
Cost (In
SAR)
Crash
Cost (In
SAR)
Extra Cost
(In SAR)
Cost per
week
J 14 12 2 10,000 14,000 4,000 2,000
K 9 8 1 17,000 27,000 10,000 10,000
N 3 2 1 25,000 26,000 1,000 1,000
L 7 5 2 14,000 20,000 6,000 3,000
M 11 8 3 27,000 36,000 9,000 3,000
Compression
This project has a float of -3 months. Which activity or activities
would you crash to save 3 months on the project, assuming all
these activities are on th3 CP?
Activity Original
Duration
(In weeks)
Crash
Duration
(In weeks)
Time
Savings
(In weeks)
Original
Cost (In
SAR)
Crash
Cost (In
SAR)
Extra Cost
(In SAR)
Cost per
week
J 14 12 2 10,000 14,000 4,000 2,000
K 9 8 1 17,000 27,000 10,000 10,000
N 3 2 1 25,000 26,000 1,000 1,000
L 7 5 2 14,000 20,000 6,000 3,000
M 11 8 3 27,000 36,000 9,000 3,000
Activities Cost
J and N
5,000 SAR
J and K
14,000 SAR
L and N
7,000 SAR
L and K
16,000 SAR
M
9,000 SAR
Project Schedule
Henry Gantt (1861-1919),
the father of planning and control techniques.
Project Schedule
of Project Time Management
Planning
Yousef Abugosh, PMP
yabugosh@sipchem.com
Section Head of Training - Sipchem
Industrial Jubail, KSA

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