PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

ESCENARIO 1:
MODERADA REDUCCION UNIDAD NACIONAL

1
CODIGO

URIBE
LA U
P.CONS
P.LIBERAL
PIN
C.RADICAL
POLO
VERDE
MIRA
CCC
OTROS

URIBE RECOGE 5 MILLONES DE VOTOS.
VOTOS VÁLIDOS AUMENTAN 24%
PARTIDOS DE LA UNIDAD NACIONAL SE REDUCEN 30%
POLO DEMOCRATICO CRECE 20%
Partido Político

URIBE CENTRO DEMOCRATICO
PARTIDO DE LA U
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION NACIONAL PIN
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO
PARTIDO VERDE
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DE RENOVACION ABSOLUTA MIRA
COMPROMISO CIUDADANO POR COLOMBIA
OTROS

TOTAL VOTOS

Votos 2010

FACTOR

---

VOTOS 2014

CURULES

5.000.000

40

2.804.123

0,70

1.962.886

15

2.298.748

0,70

1.609.124

12

1.763.908

0,70

1.234.736

9

907.468

0,70

635.228

5

888.851

0,70

622.196

5

848.905

1,20

1.018.686

8

531.293

1,00

531.293

4

298.862

1,00

298.862

2

182.826

1,00

182.826

1

220.988

1,20

265.186

1

13.361.021

102

10.745.972
INCREMENTO
UMBRAL

24%
125.000

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

ESCENARIO 2:
OPOSICION APLASTA

2

URIBE RECOGE 7 MILLONES DE VOTOS.
VOTOS VÁLIDOS AUMENTAN 28%
PARTIDOS DE LA UNIDAD NACIONAL SE REDUCEN 50%
POLO DEMOCRATICO CRECE 30%
CODIGO

URIBE
LA U
P.CONS
P.LIBERAL
PIN
C.RADICAL
POLO
VERDE
MIRA
CCC
OTROS

Partido Político

URIBE CENTRO DEMOCRATICO
PARTIDO DE LA U
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION NACIONAL PIN
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO
PARTIDO VERDE
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DE RENOVACION ABSOLUTA MIRA
COMPROMISO CIUDADANO POR COLOMBIA
OTROS

TOTAL VOTOS

Votos 2010

FACTOR

---

VOTOS 2014

CURULES

7.000.000

54

2.804.123

0,50

1.402.062

11

2.298.748

0,50

1.149.374

9

1.763.908

0,50

881.954

6

907.468

0,50

453.734

3

888.851

0,50

444.426

3

848.905

1,30

1.103.577

8

531.293

1,00

531.293

4

298.862

1,00

298.862

2

182.826

1,00

182.826

1

220.988

1,20

265.186

1

13.713.292

102

10.745.972
INCREMENTO
UMBRAL

28%
127.000

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

ESCENARIO 3
MÍNIMA REDUCCIÓN UNIDAD NACIONAL

3
CODIGO

URIBE
LA U
P.CONS
P.LIBERAL
PIN
C.RADICAL
POLO
VERDE
MIRA
CCC
OTROS

URIBE RECOGE 3 MILLONES DE VOTOS.
VOTOS VÁLIDOS AUMENTAN 22%
PARTIDOS DE LA UNIDAD NACIONAL SE REDUCEN 10%
POLO DEMOCRATICO CRECE 20%
Partido Político

URIBE CENTRO DEMOCRATICO
PARTIDO DE LA U
PARTIDO CONSERVADOR COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO LIBERAL COLOMBIANO
PARTIDO DE INTEGRACION NACIONAL PIN
PARTIDO CAMBIO RADICAL
POLO DEMOCRATICO ALTERNATIVO
PARTIDO VERDE
MOVIMIENTO INDEPENDIENTE DE RENOVACION ABSOLUTA MIRA
COMPROMISO CIUDADANO POR COLOMBIA
OTROS

TOTAL VOTOS

Votos 2010

FACTOR

---

VOTOS 2014

CURULES

3.000.000

24

2.804.123

0,90

2.523.711

20

2.298.748

0,90

2.068.873

16

1.763.908

0,90

1.587.517

13

907.468

0,90

816.721

6

888.851

0,90

799.966

6

848.905

1,20

1.018.686

8

531.293

1,00

531.293

5

298.862

1,00

298.862

2

182.826

1,00

182.826

1

220.988

1,20

265.186

1

13.093.641

102

10.745.972
INCREMENTO
UMBRAL

22%
125.000

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

CALCULO DE LA CIFRA REPARTIDORA
CIFRA REPARTIDORA: ESCENARIO 1
CURULES
PARTIDO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

40
URIBE

15
LA U

12
P.CONS

9
P.LIBERAL

5
PIN

5
C.RADICAL

8
POLO

4
VERDE

2
MIRA

1
CCC

5.000.000

1.962.886

1.609.124

1.234.736

635.228

622.196

1.018.686

531.293

298.862

182.826

5.000.000
2.500.000
1.666.667
1.250.000
1.000.000
833.333
714.286
625.000
555.556
500.000
454.545
416.667
384.615
357.143
333.333
312.500
294.118
277.778
263.158
250.000
238.095
227.273
217.391
208.333
200.000
192.308
185.185
178.571
172.414
166.667
161.290
156.250
151.515
147.059
142.857
138.889
135.135
131.579
128.205
125.000
121.951

1.962.886
981.443
654.295
490.722
392.577
327.148
280.412
245.361
218.098
196.289
178.444
163.574
150.991
140.206
130.859
122.680
115.464
109.049
103.310
98.144
93.471
89.222
85.343
81.787
78.515
75.496
72.699
70.103
67.686
65.430
63.319
61.340
59.481
57.732
56.082
54.525
53.051
51.655
50.330
49.072
47.875

1.609.124
804.562
536.375
402.281
321.825
268.187
229.875
201.140
178.792
160.912
146.284
134.094
123.779
114.937
107.275
100.570
94.654
89.396
84.691
80.456
76.625
73.142
69.962
67.047
64.365
61.889
59.597
57.469
55.487
53.637
51.907
50.285
48.761
47.327
45.975
44.698
43.490
42.345
41.260
40.228
39.247

1.234.736
617.368
411.579
308.684
246.947
205.789
176.391
154.342
137.193
123.474
112.249
102.895
94.980
88.195
82.316
77.171
72.632
68.596
64.986
61.737
58.797
56.124
53.684
51.447
49.389
47.490
45.731
44.098
42.577
41.158
39.830
38.585
37.416
36.316
35.278
34.298
33.371
32.493
31.660
30.868
30.116

635.228
317.614
211.743
158.807
127.046
105.871
90.747
79.403
70.581
63.523
57.748
52.936
48.864
45.373
42.349
39.702
37.366
35.290
33.433
31.761
30.249
28.874
27.619
26.468
25.409
24.432
23.527
22.687
21.904
21.174
20.491
19.851
19.249
18.683
18.149
17.645
17.168
16.717
16.288
15.881
15.493

622.196
311.098
207.399
155.549
124.439
103.699
88.885
77.774
69.133
62.220
56.563
51.850
47.861
44.443
41.480
38.887
36.600
34.566
32.747
31.110
29.628
28.282
27.052
25.925
24.888
23.931
23.044
22.221
21.455
20.740
20.071
19.444
18.854
18.300
17.777
17.283
16.816
16.374
15.954
15.555
15.176

1.018.686
509.343
339.562
254.672
203.737
169.781
145.527
127.336
113.187
101.869
92.608
84.891
78.360
72.763
67.912
63.668
59.923
56.594
53.615
50.934
48.509
46.304
44.291
42.445
40.747
39.180
37.729
36.382
35.127
33.956
32.861
31.834
30.869
29.961
29.105
28.297
27.532
26.808
26.120
25.467
24.846

531.293
265.647
177.098
132.823
106.259
88.549
75.899
66.412
59.033
53.129
48.299
44.274
40.869
37.950
35.420
33.206
31.253
29.516
27.963
26.565
25.300
24.150
23.100
22.137
21.252
20.434
19.678
18.975
18.320
17.710
17.138
16.603
16.100
15.626
15.180
14.758
14.359
13.981
13.623
13.282
12.958

298.862
149.431
99.621
74.716
59.772
49.810
42.695
37.358
33.207
29.886
27.169
24.905
22.989
21.347
19.924
18.679
17.580
16.603
15.730
14.943
14.232
13.585
12.994
12.453
11.954
11.495
11.069
10.674
10.306
9.962
9.641
9.339
9.056
8.790
8.539
8.302
8.077
7.865
7.663
7.472
7.289

182.826
91.413
60.942
45.707
36.565
30.471
26.118
22.853
20.314
18.283
16.621
15.236
14.064
13.059
12.188
11.427
10.754
10.157
9.622
9.141
8.706
8.310
7.949
7.618
7.313
7.032
6.771
6.530
6.304
6.094
5.898
5.713
5.540
5.377
5.224
5.079
4.941
4.811
4.688
4.571
4.459

101
TOTAL

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

CIFRA REPARTIDORA: ESCENARIO 2
CURULES
PARTIDO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55

54
URIBE

11
LA U

9
P.CONS

6
P.LIBERAL

3
PIN

3
C.RADICAL

8
POLO

4
VERDE

2
MIRA

1
CCC

7.000.000

1.402.062

1.149.374

881.954

453.734

444.426

1.103.577

531.293

298.862

182.826

7.000.000
3.500.000
2.333.333
1.750.000
1.400.000
1.166.667
1.000.000
875.000
777.778
700.000
636.364
583.333
538.462
500.000
466.667
437.500
411.765
388.889
368.421
350.000
333.333
318.182
304.348
291.667
280.000
269.231
259.259
250.000
241.379
233.333
225.806
218.750
212.121
205.882
200.000
194.444
189.189
184.211
179.487
175.000
170.732
166.667
162.791
159.091
155.556
152.174
148.936
145.833
142.857
140.000
137.255
134.615
132.075
129.630
127.273

1.402.062
701.031
467.354
350.515
280.412
233.677
200.295
175.258
155.785
140.206
127.460
116.838
107.851
100.147
93.471
87.629
82.474
77.892
73.793
70.103
66.765
63.730
60.959
58.419
56.082
53.925
51.928
50.074
48.347
46.735
45.228
43.814
42.487
41.237
40.059
38.946
37.894
36.896
35.950
35.052
34.197
33.382
32.606
31.865
31.157
30.480
29.831
29.210
28.614
28.041
27.491
26.963
26.454
25.964
25.492

1.149.374
574.687
383.125
287.344
229.875
191.562
164.196
143.672
127.708
114.937
104.489
95.781
88.413
82.098
76.625
71.836
67.610
63.854
60.493
57.469
54.732
52.244
49.973
47.891
45.975
44.207
42.569
41.049
39.634
38.312
37.077
35.918
34.830
33.805
32.839
31.927
31.064
30.247
29.471
28.734
28.034
27.366
26.730
26.122
25.542
24.986
24.455
23.945
23.457
22.987
22.537
22.103
21.686
21.285
20.898

881.954
440.977
293.985
220.489
176.391
146.992
125.993
110.244
97.995
88.195
80.178
73.496
67.843
62.997
58.797
55.122
51.880
48.997
46.419
44.098
41.998
40.089
38.346
36.748
35.278
33.921
32.665
31.498
30.412
29.398
28.450
27.561
26.726
25.940
25.199
24.499
23.837
23.209
22.614
22.049
21.511
20.999
20.511
20.044
19.599
19.173
18.765
18.374
17.999
17.639
17.293
16.961
16.641
16.332
16.036

453.734
226.867
151.245
113.434
90.747
75.622
64.819
56.717
50.415
45.373
41.249
37.811
34.903
32.410
30.249
28.358
26.690
25.207
23.881
22.687
21.606
20.624
19.728
18.906
18.149
17.451
16.805
16.205
15.646
15.124
14.637
14.179
13.750
13.345
12.964
12.604
12.263
11.940
11.634
11.343
11.067
10.803
10.552
10.312
10.083
9.864
9.654
9.453
9.260
9.075
8.897
8.726
8.561
8.402
8.250

444.426
222.213
148.142
111.106
88.885
74.071
63.489
55.553
49.381
44.443
40.402
37.035
34.187
31.745
29.628
27.777
26.143
24.690
23.391
22.221
21.163
20.201
19.323
18.518
17.777
17.093
16.460
15.872
15.325
14.814
14.336
13.888
13.467
13.071
12.698
12.345
12.012
11.695
11.396
11.111
10.840
10.582
10.335
10.101
9.876
9.661
9.456
9.259
9.070
8.889
8.714
8.547
8.385
8.230
8.080

1.103.577
551.788
367.859
275.894
220.715
183.929
157.654
137.947
122.620
110.358
100.325
91.965
84.891
78.827
73.572
68.974
64.916
61.310
58.083
55.179
52.551
50.163
47.982
45.982
44.143
42.445
40.873
39.413
38.054
36.786
35.599
34.487
33.442
32.458
31.531
30.655
29.826
29.041
28.297
27.589
26.917
26.276
25.665
25.081
24.524
23.991
23.480
22.991
22.522
22.072
21.639
21.223
20.822
20.437
20.065

531.293
265.647
177.098
132.823
106.259
88.549
75.899
66.412
59.033
53.129
48.299
44.274
40.869
37.950
35.420
33.206
31.253
29.516
27.963
26.565
25.300
24.150
23.100
22.137
21.252
20.434
19.678
18.975
18.320
17.710
17.138
16.603
16.100
15.626
15.180
14.758
14.359
13.981
13.623
13.282
12.958
12.650
12.356
12.075
11.807
11.550
11.304
11.069
10.843
10.626
10.418
10.217
10.024
9.839
9.660

298.862
149.431
99.621
74.716
59.772
49.810
42.695
37.358
33.207
29.886
27.169
24.905
22.989
21.347
19.924
18.679
17.580
16.603
15.730
14.943
14.232
13.585
12.994
12.453
11.954
11.495
11.069
10.674
10.306
9.962
9.641
9.339
9.056
8.790
8.539
8.302
8.077
7.865
7.663
7.472
7.289
7.116
6.950
6.792
6.641
6.497
6.359
6.226
6.099
5.977
5.860
5.747
5.639
5.534
5.434

182.826
91.413
60.942
45.707
36.565
30.471
26.118
22.853
20.314
18.283
16.621
15.236
14.064
13.059
12.188
11.427
10.754
10.157
9.622
9.141
8.706
8.310
7.949
7.618
7.313
7.032
6.771
6.530
6.304
6.094
5.898
5.713
5.540
5.377
5.224
5.079
4.941
4.811
4.688
4.571
4.459
4.353
4.252
4.155
4.063
3.974
3.890
3.809
3.731
3.657
3.585
3.516
3.450
3.386
3.324

101
TOTAL

PRONOSTICOS DE ELECCIONES A CONGRESO DE COLOMBIA - MARZO DE 2014

CIFRA REPARTIDORA: ESCENARIO 3
CURULES
PARTIDO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

24
URIBE

20
LA U

16
P.CONS

13
P.LIBERAL

6
PIN

6
C.RADICAL

8
POLO

5
VERDE

2
MIRA

1
CCC

3.000.000

2.523.711

2.068.873

1.587.517

816.721

799.966

1.018.686

531.293

298.862

182.826

3.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
750.000
600.000
500.000
428.571
375.000
333.333
300.000
272.727
250.000
230.769
214.286
200.000
187.500
176.471
166.667
157.895
150.000
142.857
136.364
130.435
125.000
120.000

2.523.711
1.261.855
841.237
630.928
504.742
420.618
360.530
315.464
280.412
252.371
229.428
210.309
194.132
180.265
168.247
157.732
148.454
140.206
132.827
126.186
120.177
114.714
109.727
105.155
100.948

2.068.873
1.034.437
689.624
517.218
413.775
344.812
295.553
258.609
229.875
206.887
188.079
172.406
159.144
147.777
137.925
129.305
121.698
114.937
108.888
103.444
98.518
94.040
89.951
86.203
82.755

1.587.517
793.759
529.172
396.879
317.503
264.586
226.788
198.440
176.391
158.752
144.320
132.293
122.117
113.394
105.834
99.220
93.383
88.195
83.554
79.376
75.596
72.160
69.022
66.147
63.501

816.721
408.361
272.240
204.180
163.344
136.120
116.674
102.090
90.747
81.672
74.247
68.060
62.825
58.337
54.448
51.045
48.042
45.373
42.985
40.836
38.891
37.124
35.510
34.030
32.669

799.966
399.983
266.655
199.991
159.993
133.328
114.281
99.996
88.885
79.997
72.724
66.664
61.536
57.140
53.331
49.998
47.057
44.443
42.103
39.998
38.094
36.362
34.781
33.332
31.999

1.018.686
509.343
339.562
254.672
203.737
169.781
145.527
127.336
113.187
101.869
92.608
84.891
78.360
72.763
67.912
63.668
59.923
56.594
53.615
50.934
48.509
46.304
44.291
42.445
40.747

531.293
265.647
177.098
132.823
106.259
88.549
75.899
66.412
59.033
53.129
48.299
44.274
40.869
37.950
35.420
33.206
31.253
29.516
27.963
26.565
25.300
24.150
23.100
22.137
21.252

298.862
149.431
99.621
74.716
59.772
49.810
42.695
37.358
33.207
29.886
27.169
24.905
22.989
21.347
19.924
18.679
17.580
16.603
15.730
14.943
14.232
13.585
12.994
12.453
11.954

182.826
91.413
60.942
45.707
36.565
30.471
26.118
22.853
20.314
18.283
16.621
15.236
14.064
13.059
12.188
11.427
10.754
10.157
9.622
9.141
8.706
8.310
7.949
7.618
7.313

101
TOTAL

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