Definition of Delphi Method A forecasting method based on the results of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts.

Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds. Because multiple rounds of questions are asked and because each member of the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi Method seeks to reach the "correct" response through consensus.

Abstract The Delphi method has proven a popular tool in information systems research for identifying and prioritizing issues for managerial decision-making. However, many past studies have not adopted a systematic approach to conduct a Delphi study. This article provides rigorous guidelines for the process of selecting appropriate experts for the study and gives detailed principles for making design choices during the process that ensure a valid study. A detailed example of a study to identify key factors affecting the diffusion of e-commerce in Sub-Saharan Africa illustrates the design choices that may be involved. We conclude with suggestions for theoretical applications.

delphi method in project management The Delphi Technique is an essential project management technique that refers to an information gathering technique in which the opinions of those whose opinions are most valuable, traditionally industry experts, is solicited, with the ultimate hope and goal of attaining a consensus. Typically, the polling of these industry experts is done on an anonymous basis, in hopes of attaining opinions that are unfettered by fears or identifiability. The experts are presented with a series of questions in regards to the project, which is typically, but not always, presented to the expert by a third-party facilitator, in hopes of eliciting new ideas regarding specific project points. The responses from all experts are typically combined in the form of an overall summary, which is then provided to the experts for a review and for the opportunity to make further comments. This process typically results in consensus within a number of rounds, and this technique typically helps minimize bias, and minimizes the possibility that any one person can have too much influence on the outcomes.

This term is defined in the 3rd and the 4th edition of the Related Entries: o Develop Project Management Plan. The phrase develop project management plan refers to the act of itemizing the specific list of all items that are. o Networking [Technique] The concept of networking in the real world typically refers to the actions in which an individual attempts to meet. o Earned Value Technique Earned Value Technique which refers specifically to the specific technique in which the actual values of the work related performance... o Brainstorming [Technique] Brainstorming is a technique that has gone from the boardroom into the real world and is used by employees of. o Lead (Technique) The project management term lead refers to the specific project management technique on which the logical relationship between a series... o Develop Project Management Plan The phrase develop project management plan refers to the act of itemizing the specific list of all items that are. o Networking [Technique] The concept of networking in the real world typically refers to the actions in which an individual attempts to meet. o Earned Value Technique Earned Value Technique which refers specifically to the specific technique in which the actual values of the work related performance... o Brainstorming [Technique] Brainstorming is a technique that has gone from the boardroom into the real world and is used by employees of. o Lead (Technique) The project management term lead refers to the specific project management technique on which the logical relationship between a series.

Delphi method of demand forecasting

Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to demand forecasting- one is to obtain information about the likely purchase behavior of the buyer through collecting experts opinion or by conducting interviews with consumers, the other is to use past experience as a guide through a set of statistical techniques. Both these methods rely on varying degrees of judgment. The first method is usually found suitable for short-term forecasting, the latter for long-term forecasting. There are specific techniques which fall under each of these broad methods

Sample Survey Method 1) Experts Opinion Poll: In this method, the experts are requested to give their opinion or feel about the product. These experts, dealing in the same or similar product, are able to predict the likely sales of a given product in future periods under different conditions based on their experience. If the number of such experts is large and their experience-based reactions are different, then an average-simple or weighted is found to lead to unique forecasts. Sometimes this method is also called the hunch method but it replaces analysis by opinions and it can thus turn out to be highly subjective in nature. 2) Reasoned Opinion-Delphi Technique: This is a variant of the opinion poll method. Here is an attempt to arrive at a consensus in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly until the responses appear to converge along a single line. The participants are supplied with responses to previous questions (including seasonings from others in the group by a coordinator or a leader or operator of some sort). Such feedback may result in an expert revising his earlier opinion. This may lead to a narrowing down of the divergent views (of the experts) expressed earlier. The Delphi Techniques, followed by the Greeks earlier, thus generates reasoned opinion in place of unstructured opinion; but this is still a poor proxy for market behavior of economic variables. 3) End-user Method of Consumers Survey: Under this method, the sales of a product are projected through a survey of its end-users. A product is used for final consumption or as an intermediate product in the production of other goods in the domestic market, or it may be exported as well as imported. The demands for final consumption and exports net of imports are estimated through some other forecasting method, and its demand for intermediate use is estimated through a survey of its user industries.

Complex Statistical Methods 1) Time series analysis or trend method: Under this method, the time series data on the under forecast are used to fit a trend line or curve either graphically or through statistical method of Least Squares. The trend line is worked out by fitting a trend equation to time series data with the aid of an estimation method. The trend equation could take either a linear or any kind of non-linear form. The trend method outlined above often yields a dependable forecast. 2) The advantage in this method is that it does not require the formal knowledge of economic theory and the market; it only needs the time series data. The only limitation in this method is that it assumes that the past is repeated in future. Also, it is an appropriate method for long-run forecasts, but inappropriate for short-run forecasts. Sometimes the time series analysis may not reveal a significant trend of any kind. In that case, the moving average method or exponentially weighted moving average method is used to smoothen the series

INDUSTRIAL MANEGMENT POD 3123

ASSIGNMENT 1: INDIVIDUAL 30/09/2013 (3111016411) DIP. IN INDUSTRIAL TECHONOLGY

NAME LACTURE FACULTY

: NUUR ANIDA BINTI MAHAMOD : HJ. MOHD AZRIN BIN ABDUL RAHIM : SCIENCE AND BIOTECHNOLOGY