The weekly briefing | 11 November 2013

Political and security risk update

Africa: M23 rebels to end revolt in emocratic !epublic of t"e #ongo$ Americas: #olombian government reac"es landmark agreement %it" &'!# over participation in politics$ Asia and Pacific: (idespread opposition intensifies against )"ailand*s proposed political amnesty bill$ Europe: )"e Britis" ambassador in Berlin "as been called in follo%ing spying allegations$ Middle East: +sraeli,Palestinian peace talks remain in limbo$ Polar regions: -"ell "as declared its intention to resume efforts at finding crude in 'rctic %aters$

'frica
M23 rebels to end re olt in !emocratic "epublic of the #ongo M23 insurgents announced on . November t"at t"ey %ould end t"eir 1/,mont",long rebellion in t"e emocratic !epublic of t"e #ongo 0 !#1$ 2ours earlier3 t"e country4s government "ad declared 5total victory* over t"e group3 follo%ing an army operation against t"eir last remaining strong"olds$ M23*s commander3 -ultani Makenga3 and around 13600 fig"ters are reported to "ave surrendered in 7ganda$ 8ampala "as not yet decided %"et"er to "and t"em over to 8ins"asa or not and "as said no decision %ill be made until a peace agreement is signed bet%een t"e !# government and M23$ 9iven t"e !# army4s current success and t"e M234s declaration of surrender and a return to peace talks3 "opes are "ig" for a settlement after t"e prolonged period of violence across t"e region3 leaving t"ousands of civilians displaced$ 2o%ever3 t"e M234s defeat is unlikely to result in instant peace3 as bot" t"e !# and t"e 7N "ave stated t"at top M23 commanders %ill not be given amnesty$ Military reforms combating corruption and continuing government efforts to stamp out militias "ave yielded some results3 but a political settlement of t"e entirety of t"e conflict3 including economic elements linked to t"e country4s vast reserves of fuel and mineral resources3 remains t"e most important c"allenge$ +t is believed t"at some of t"e remaining rebels "ave fled to neig"bouring !%anda3 %"ic" could still endanger t"e regional balance$ )"e !# military is no% e:pected to focus its operations on ot"er rebel groups in t"e country3 %it" defeating t"e emocratic &orces for t"e ;iberation of !%anda 0& ;!1 as its main priority$

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$ther de elopments %ighting among militias broke out in Tripoli& 'ibya& on ( )o ember* (it" at least one person killed and a do<en in=ured3 t"is %as t"e most serious eruption of violence in mont"s$ 'n armed group from Misrata entered t"e capital in a reprisal attack for a s"ooting t%o days earlier$ )"e ;ibyan government is struggling to contain t"e militias3 %"o "elped overt"ro% t"e regime of Muammar 9ad"afi in 2011$ )"is is no longer only a problem in Beng"a<i but increasingly also in t"e capital$ )"e %idespread availability of %eapons and t"e e:tensive arming of residents are adding to t"e difficulties$ +outh +udan has deployed around ,-- soldiers to .estern E/uatoria state& acting against ;ord4s !esistance 'rmy 0;!'1 fig"ters in response to an attack earlier in t"e %eek$ 8illings3 lootings and an unkno%n number of abductions caused many civilians in t"e area to flee into t"e bus"$ )"is follo%s ;!' activities in t"e increasingly unstable neig"bouring #entral 'frican !epublic$ )"e -out" -udanese government stated it %ould remain on "ig" alert for a likely spill,over of violence$ Al01aeda in the 2slamic Maghreb 3A12M4 has claimed responsibility for the recent killing of two %rench 5ournalists in Mali* )"e group cited t"e &rance4s intervention in its former colony3 %"ic" began in >anuary t"is year3 as t"e reason for t"e attack$ )"e "unt for suspects "as so far resulted at least 3. arrests$ 2aving already delayed plans for t%o mont"s3 Paris "as announced its intention to stick to its sc"edule of reducing its army presence from 33200 troops to 13000 by t"e end of t"e year$ $n the radar Ethiopia is now also e6pecting al0+habaab attacks in t"e %ake of t"e latest bombing in Mogadis"u3 -omalia$ %urther 7enyan military strikes against al0+habaab are likely as t"e government %arns civilians of operations$ Tunisian Ennadha and Popular %ront leaders are e6pected to attempt resumption of national dialogue$

'mericas
#olombian go ernment reaches landmark agreement with %A"# o er participation in politics On (ednesday ? November3 t"e #olombian government and t"e !evolutionary 'rmed &orces of #olombia 0&'!#1 reac"ed a landmark agreement on t"e rebel*s political participation as part of t"e peace talks* si:, point agenda$ )"e peace talks are no% a year old and t"e first agreement3 %"ic" concerned land reform3 %as settled last May$ )"is second agreement lays out t"e frame%ork for t"e political integration of t"e left,%ing &'!# rebels into #olombian national politics$ +t involves t"e creation of ne% parties %it" guaranteed protection from t"e state as %ell as t"e formation of ne% constituencies in t"e "ardest "it districts in order to guarantee a minimum representation of t"e &'!# political branc" in #ongress$ )"is agreement marks a turning point in t"e negotiations but doubts remain over t"e feasibility of integrating &'!# into t"e political system$ )"e last participation of &'!# in #olombian mainstream politics3 t"roug" t"e Patriotic 7nion party in t"e 1@/0s3 resulted in bloods"ed and t"e assassination of 33000 of its members by opposition paramilitary groups$ &urt"ermore3 t"e participation of senior &'!# leaders %"o "ave been accused of %ar crimes and crimes against "umanity is proving controversial$ &ormer president Alvaro 7ribe "as condemned t"e eventual political integration of &'!#$ Open Briefing | 2

)"e success in t"e peace talks is likely to lift support for #olombian President >uan Manuel -antos a"ead of t"e May 201B presidential elections$ (eakened by t"e poor "andling of a national strike from t"e agrarian sector in -eptember3 -antos*s electoral success %ill rely on t"e legacy of t"e peace talks$ 's suc"3 t"e peace rounds are likely to carry on during t"e political campaign$ 2o%ever3 t"ere is a risk t"at t"is strategy mig"t backfire3 as it is estimated t"at currently only a t"in ma=ority of t"e #olombian population favours a peaceful reconciliation %it" &'!#$ $ther de elopments Thousands of people marched in the 8aitian capital& Port0au0Prince& demanding the resignation of President Michel Martelly* )ensions "ave mounted bet%een t"e presidential and opposition camps in t"e last fe% %eeks$ Me6ican authorities ha e ordered the militarisation of port '9:aro #9rdenas in an effort to curb the acti ities of the 7nights Templar 3#aballeros Templarios4 cartel* ;C<aro #Crdenas is one of t"e country*s principal ports on t"e Pacific coast$ )"e cartel is believed to "ave bribed t"e port aut"orities and used t"e "arbour as a drug s"ipment platform$ $n the radar The left0wing candidate Michelle ;achelet is the fa ourite in the #hilean presidential elections to be "eld on 16 November$ Argentine President #ristina %ern9nde: is to resume her duties after a mont",long absence follo%ing surgery to remove a blood clot on "er brain$ Political rallies and demonstration in 8onduras are likely a"ead of general elections$ <ene:uelan President )icol9s Maduro stated that by ne6t week he will be able to rule by decree* )"is %ould first reDuire t"at t"e Emergency ;a% be approved by a ma=ority in #ongress$ )ationwide demonstrations are planned across #osta "ica on 11 )o ember to protest against government policies and economic conditions$

'sia and Pacific

.idespread opposition intensifies against Thailand=s proposed political amnesty bill )en of t"ousands of demonstrators "ave taken to t"e streets of Bangkok to oppose t"e adoption of a political amnesty bill3 %"ic" initially covered only ordinary protestors for involvement in past protests but no% seeks to absolve all convictions relating to political conflicts since 200B$ Protestors3 %"o mainly "ail from t"e middle class and emocrat Party supporters3 argue t"at t"e legislation %ould allo% t"e overturn t"e conviction of t"e controversial former prime minister )"aksin -"ina%atra$ )"aksin %as removed by a coup in 200? and "as lived in e:ile since$ )"aksin3 "o%ever3 denies "e is planning "is return$ +t is )"aksin*s sister3 t"e current prime minister3 Fingluck -"ina%atra3 %"o is t"e most vocal advocate of t"e proposed bill3 %"ic" s"e argues %ill lead to political reconciliation$ 2uge opposition to t"e bill is also present from )"aksin*s o%n supporters3 %"o argue it %ould absolve t"ose responsible for ordering t"e military to open fire upon peaceful protestors in 2010$

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)"e amnesty bill "as passed t"roug" t"e lo%er "ouse3 %"ic" is comfortably dominated by t"e governing P"eu )"ai party and its allies3 and "as been sent to )"ailand4s senate for approval$ )"e senate "as done little to fulfil its constitutional role to c"eck "armful and undemocratic legislation in t"e past due to familial links and corruption$ 2o%ever3 on t"is occasion t"e senate president "as already announced t"at most senators %ill re=ect t"e bill in its current form$ )"e government %ill per"aps continue undeterred3 believing t"at opposition may eventually fi<<le out$ $ther de elopments The chief of #ambodia?s military force on the border with Thailand has called an emergency meeting after lo%,flying )"ai aircraft %ere seen around t"e Prea" Gi"ear temple$ ' "elicopter and small spotter plane %ere seen early on t"e @ November$ 'lt"oug" a 1@?2 verdict by t"e +nternational #ourt of >ustice 0+#>1 declared t"e temple to be #ambodian3 t"e lands surrounding t"e temple "ave been disputed for centuries$ )ensions "ave been "ig" since 200/$ )"ai nationalists %ere enraged %"en )"ailand %it"dre% its reDuest for t"e temple to be listed as a =oint #ambodian,)"ai 7NE-#O %orld "eritage site$ +n 'pril 200@3 soldiers e:c"anged cross,border fire$ +n &ebruary 20113 more t"an eig"t people %ere killed after several days of fig"ting %"ic" forced t"ousands to flee$ #hina=s political elite ha e commenced the Third Plenum @ the #ommunist Party meeting where the main political and economic agenda for the ne6t decade will be discussed* 'nalysts believe t"e liberalisation of t"e financial sector3 t"e future role of state,o%ned enterprises and t"e reformation of #"ina4s "ouse"old registration system %ill be critical issues under discussion$ )"e mout"piece of t"e #ommunist Party3 t"e People's Daily ne%spaper3 "as firmly re=ected t"e possibility of discussing (estern political reforms3 suc" as liberalisation or democratisation$ Beginning on @ November3 t"e meetings are e:pected to end on 13 November$ )aro Aamamoto& a member of Bapan=s legislati e !iet& has been reprimanded by the media& public and go ernment for attempted to break the Emperor=s political neutrality* )"is comes after Famamoto attempted to "and a letter to Emperor 'ki"ito t"at detailed t"e impact of t"e &ukus"ima nuclear disaster$ )"e Emperor*s role remains "ig"ly sensitive nearly 60 years after 'ki"ito*s fat"er renounced "is divine status under pressure from t"e 'merican occupation forces$ )"is ensured a constitution %"ere t"e Emperor could retain a figure,"ead role at t"e price of post,%ar political influence$ 'lt"oug" rig"t,%ing groups %ould see t"e emperor assuming a more political role3 t"ey are a significant minority in a society %"o see any political contact %it" t"e emperor as taboo$ $n the radar The trial of suspected militant +epariano is e6pected to conclude with a death sentence in a +outh Bakarta !istrict #ourt* 2e is accused of plotting to bomb t"e BurmaHMyanmar embassy in +ndonesia$ 2ndonesia will re iew the way it shares intelligence with the Cnited +tates and Australia in t"e %ake of t"e spying scandal$ The Cnited %ront for !emocracy against !ictatorship 3C!!4 has scheduled anti0legislation rallies across a number of Thai pro inces this week* Malaysia is currently gathering e idence to pro e that the Cnited +tates and Australia ha e conducted spying acti ities on its soil* Open Briefing | >

Europe
The ;ritish ambassador in ;erlin has been called in following spying allegations )"e 9erman foreign ministry called t"e Britis" ambassador3 -imon Mc onald3 for a meeting on . November to discuss allegations t"at t"e 7nited 8ingdom "ad been carrying out covert electronic surveillance on t"e 9erman government from a 5spy nest* on top of t"e Britis" embassy$ )"is is reminiscent of devices used during t"e #old (ar to intercept East 9erman and -oviet communications$ )oday3 "o%ever3 t"e interception of communication from %it"in diplomatic buildings represents a violation of international la%$ Britis",9erman relations could %orsen if t"e spying allegations are confirmed$ )"e co,c"airman of t"e left,%ing ie ;ink party said t"at t"e party %ould call for a special E7 summit to discuss financial sanctions against t"e 7nited 8ingdom$ )"e allegations %ere publis"ed a %eek after a 9erman maga<ine revealed t"at t"e N-' "ad built a structure on t"e roof of t"e 7- embassy in order to monitor t"e p"ones of 9erman officials in nearby government buildings$ $ther de elopments 7oso o=s #entral Election #ommission 3#E#4 announced on D )o ember that local elections in three polling centres in northern 7oso ska Mitro ica would be repeated* &ollo%ing t"e election on 3 November3 t"e #E# annulled t"e results from t"ese polling centres3 after masked men stormed t"e centres and destroyed t"e election material$ )"ese elections %ere for t"e "eads of municipalities and representatives in t"e local assemblies$ )"e re,voting %ill occur on 16 November$ $n ( )o ember& Ereek riot police cleared the Athens head/uarters of former state broadcaster E"T* )"e building "ad been occupied since >une by former employees3 23?00 of %"om "ad been laid off by t"e government to reduce public e:penditure$ ;abour unions and opposition parties "eavily criticised t"e government follo%ing t"e raid$ Moreover3 9reece*s main opposition party3 #oalition of t"e !adical ;eft 0-F!+I'13 tabled on 6 November a motion of no confidence in t"e government$ )"e debate began on / November and a roll,call vote %ill be "eld at midnig"t on 10 November$ The head of the EC delegation to Afghanistan& %ran:0Michael +k5old Mellbin& announced on ( )o ember that the EC would continue to support Afghanistan following the withdrawal of )AT$0led troops by the end of 2-1>* Mellbin confirmed t"at t"e E7 %ould support 'fg"anistan t"roug" its 5transformation decade* 0201.,2B1 and t"at it %ould offer a compre"ensive approac" in order to ensure synergies bet%een t"e political3 development and security forces$ )"e ambassador also emp"asised t"e importance of s%iftly concluding t"e #ooperation 'greement for Partners"ip and evelopment 0#'P 13 %"ic" %ill serve as t"e legal frame%ork for E7,'fg"an relations for ne:t 10 years$ $n the radar %urther protests are likely across %rance in the coming week over controversial road ta:$ "allies are due to take place in Athens and Thessaloniki on 1( )o ember in commemoration of t"e B0t" anniversary of t"e 1@63 student uprising against t"e 9reek former military dictators"ip$ Planned rally to take place at the +panish Prime Minister Mariano "a5oys= residence in Madrid on 1B November over education cuts$

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Middle East
2sraeli0Palestinian peace talks remain in limbo ;ast %eek3 7- -ecretary of -tate >o"n 8erry s"uttled bet%een >erusalem and Bet"le"em as (as"ington attempted to keep t"e stumbling peace talks bet%een +srael and Palestine alive$ +n a statement made on 6 November3 8erry remained optimistic about t"e talks and said bot" +sraeli Prime Minister Ben=amin Netanya"u and Palestinian President Ma"moud 'bbas "ad reaffirmed t"eir commitment to t"e negotiations$ 2o%ever3 t"at confidence did not appear to be in line %it" t"e sentiments of Netanya"u and 'bbas$ Netanya"u remains sceptical of t"e (as"ington,backed peace talks$ 2e "as accused t"e Palestinians of dragging t"eir feet and avoiding t"e toug" decisions and sacrifices t"at must be made in order for t"e talks to be successful$ On t"e ot"er "and3 'bbas "as pointed to t"e recent announcement by +srael of plans to construct a furt"er 33.00 "ome in t"e (est Bank as a ma=or stumbling block$ )"e territories of t"e (est Bank and East >erusalem "ave been occupied by +srael since 1@?6 and settlements in t"ese territories "ave been at t"e centre of failed peace talks in t"e past$ ;ast mont"*s release of over 100 Palestinian prisoners by +srael %as part of a (as"ington,brokered deal to bring 'bbas back to t"e negotiating table$ 2o%ever3 Palestinians "ave strongly ob=ected to any suggestions t"at t"eir release %as in e:c"ange for overlooking settlements$ 8erry*s attempt to revive peace talks bet%een +srael and Palestine appear to "ave been unsuccessful and ma=or obstacles bet%een t"e t%o sides remain3 bot" internal and e:ternal$ Proposed e:tensions of +sraeli settlements into t"e occupied territories reinforce anti,+sraeli sentiment amongst Palestinians and are considered illegal under international la%$ Moreover3 political divisions amongst Palestinians e:ist bet%een 'bbas*s &ata" and 2amas and t"e +slamist movement "as condemned any peace talks %it" +srael$ Palestinian suspicion of +srael also increased after a report emerged indicating t"at revered former Palestinian leader Fasser 'rafat died %it" "ig" levels of polonium,210 in "is body$ )"e 7- brokered peace talks are due to end in 'pril and3 based on t"e opening t"ree mont"s of talks3 look likely to end %it"out any significant progression$ $ther de elopments A C) backed ceasefire announced on > )o ember has failed to curb sectarian fighting in )orthern Aemen* 't least 100 people "ave been killed as clas"es broke out in t"e Femeni ama= on 30 October bet%een -"i*ite 2out"i and -unni -alafist groups$ 2out"i fig"ters control most of -aada province along t"e border %it" -audi 'rabia$ 'nti,government 2out"i groups "ave accused t"e government of socio, economic and religious discrimination and "ave foug"t many times %it" security forces$ )"e latest incident occurred after 2out"i fig"ters accused rival -alafists of recruiting foreign fig"ters to attack t"em$ -unni -alafists "ave links to +slamist groups in t"e region3 particularly 'l,Jaeda in t"e 'rabian Peninsula$

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$n ( )o ember& 22 military and police personnel were killed and a further 2D were in5ured after coordinated attacks targeted 2ra/i security forces* )"e attacks occurred at t"e "eadDuarters of t"e 22nd Brigade of t"e +raDi army in al,)armiya3 nort" of Bag"dad$ !eports identified an initial suicide bomber attacked t"e main gate of t"e military base and a second detonated a c"arge as soldiers %ere tending to t"e %ounded$ 9unmen %ere also reported to "ave open fired on t"e military base$ &urt"er violence in t"e country on 6 November left eig"t dead after a series of car and roadside bombings$ Militants "ave repeatedly targeted security forces and -"i*ite communities because of t"e government*s neglect of +raD*s -unni minority$ Mohammed Morsi& Egypt=s first democratically elected president& appeared in public for the first time since he was deposed by a military coup in Buly 2-13* )"e former president appeared in court alongside 1B ot"er co,defendants on B November$ Morsi and "is co,defendants are accused of inciting murder as Muslim Brot"er"ood loyalists attacked secular protestors in ecember 2012$ )"e clas"es outside t"e presidential palace left at least 11 dead and political turmoil ensued rig"t up until >uly %"en t"e military intervened$ Morsi used t"e opportunity to reinforce "is position and s"outed3 5+ am furious t"at t"e Egyptian =udiciary s"ould serve as cover for t"is criminal military coup* and refused to ackno%ledge t"e aut"ority of t"e court$ )"e defendants believe t"at t"eir arrests are politically motivated3 t"oug" it s"ould be noted t"at t"e c"arges relate to an incident t"at occurred prior to t"e military coup$ )"e trial "as been ad=ourned until / >anuary after tussles broke out in t"e court bet%een pro, and anti,Morsi supporters$ $n the radar The head of the 2nternational Atomic Energy Agency& Aukiya Amano& will meet with senior 2ranian leaders on 11 )o ember %it" t"e aim of strengt"ening dialogue and cooperation$ $n 1, )o ember& the +yrian go ernment is e6pected to present a plan on how it will destroy its e6isting stockpile of chemical weapons by the middle of ne6t year* #ountries across the Middle East will commemorate the day of Ashura which falls on 1> )o ember$ )"e day commemorates of t"e martyrdom of 2ussein3 a grandson of t"e Prop"et Mu"ammad3 an event t"at led to t"e split of +slam into -unnis and -"i*as$

Polar regions
+hell has declared its intention to resume efforts at finding crude in Arctic waters -"ell officials declared t"eir intention to resume efforts at finding crude in 'rctic %aters during t"e summer e:ploration season in 201B$ )"e pledge3 %"ic" %as delivered during a call %it" reporters to discuss !oyal utc" -"ell*s t"ird,Duarter earnings3 ends mont"s of speculation about %"et"er t"e company %ould be prepared for t"e coming summer season3 %"en 'rctic ice retreats sufficiently nort"%ards to allo% for oil e:ploration$ -"ell*s c"ief financial officer -imon 2enry indicated t"at t"e company*s return to t"e 'rctic %ould be do%nscaledK t"e company %ill not seek to resume drilling in t"e Beaufort -ea3 %"ose s"allo% sea bed significantly complicates suc" efforts$ !at"er3 t"e company intends to continue drilling in t"e #"ukc"i -ea3 an area t"at 2enry described as a 5multi,billion,barrel opportunity for -"ell*$

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'lt"oug" -"ell "as invested nearly L. billion and eig"t years of %ork into its current pro=ect of 'rctic oil e:ploration3 analysts and industry e:perts %ere unsure %"et"er t"e company %ould attempt to continue in 201B3 due to a 2012 season t"at %as plagued by tec"nical failures and legal c"allenges$ )"e long series of mis"aps included a failure to complete sc"eduled repairs to its oil spill containment vessel t"e 'rctic #"allenger3 a loss of propulsion and a fire on its drills"ip t"e Noble iscoverer3 and t"e L1$1 million in fines t"e company %as compelled to pay to t"e 7- government for violating air pollution permits by emitting e:cess nitrogen o:ide during drilling$ )"e most dramatic setback %as on 31 ecember3 %"en t"e drilling unit 8ulluk ran aground near an 'laskan island after a five,day struggle to to% t"e vessel t"roug" a storm$ -"ell claims to "ave resolved t"e tec"nical problems concerning its fleet3 alt"oug" 8ulluk %ill not be participating3 "aving sustained suc" severe damage t"at t"e company is likely to scrap it$ 2o%ever3 a number of legal "urdles remain3 %"ic" undermine %"at 9reenpeace +nternational*s 'rctic campaign leader Ben 'yliffe dismisses as 5-"ell*s 'rctic bravado*$ +f 2enry*s statement proves to be more t"an simply an attempt to reassure t"e company*s investors3 and if t"e company manages to meet t"e strict legal regulations set by t"e 7- government3 -"ell*s return to t"e 'rctic in 201B %ill significantly alter t"e political and security climate of t"e region$ !ussia*s state,o%ned energy giants3 %"ere t"e <ero,sum mentality dominates3 are likely to respond by attempting to accelerate t"eir programme of 'rctic energy e:ploration$ )"is %ill be used to =ustify and possible intensify !ussia*s carefully,%atc"ed military build,up in t"e region3 %"ic" in turn is likely to lead to competition from t"e 7nited -tates and #anada$ $ther de elopments "ussian defence minister& +ergei +hoigu& said that the "ussian military is planning to form a s/uadron of warships with ice0breaking capability by 2-1> to protect vital s"ipping routes in t"e 'rctic$ -"oigu3 one of !ussia*s most po%erful politicians %"o in contrast to "is colleagues en=oys considerable popularity %it" t"e !ussian people3 used t"e video conference3 "eld at t"e !ussian defence ministry on ? November3 to restate !ussia*s commitment to t"e 'rctic3 %"ic" "e called a region of 5utmost importance in terms of natural resources and strategic interests*$ 2e also used t"e conference to confirm t"e reports of local and international media concerning t"e reopening of a -oviet,era military base on t"e island of 8otelny in !ussia*s far nort"east$ #onstruction of the world=s largest and most powerful nuclear0powered icebreaker began on , )o ember at the ;altic +hipyard in +t Petersburg$ )"e yet,unnamed vessel %ill be po%ered by t%o nuclear reactors3 and it %ill be 163 metres long and 3B metres %ide$ )"e 9eneral irector of !ussia*s 'tomflot3 Gyac"eslav !uks"a3 claimed t"at t"e s"ip3 %"ic" "as a M1$1 billion price tag3 %ill be ready for operations in 2016 and %ill make it possible to use t"e Nort"ern -ea !oute all year around$ !ussia is "oping to reap increasing economic benefits from t"e Nort"ern -ea !oute3 by providing logistical and infrastructure services to 'sian nations3 primarily #"ina3 %is"ing to e:ploit t"e ne% s"ipping route for faster delivery of t"eir e:ports to European markets$

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"ussia has lashed out at the )etherlands for what it says was its failure to pre ent a !utch0 registered Ereenpeace icebreaker sei:ed by "ussian border guards in +eptember from entering Arctic waters* )"e comments by foreign ministry spokesperson 'le:ander ;ukas"evic" refer to t"e 'rctic -unrise3 %"ic" %as detained by !ussian aut"orities toget"er %it" its 30,strong international cre% of environmental activists and =ournalists after t"e activists attempted to scale a rig belonging to state, o%ned gas giant 9a<prom in protest against drilling in t"e 'rctic$ )"e Net"erlands is seeking t"e release of its vessel and cre% t"roug" international arbitration at t"e +nternational )ribunal for t"e ;a% of t"e -ea3 %"ic" began "earings into t"e case on ? November$ $n the radar The portal for public comment and complaint concerning "ussia=s Arctic policy %ill close on 11 November3 after %"ic" t"e government %ill begin t"e implementation of its L?3 billion 5-ocial and economic development of t"e 'rctic <one of !ussia for t"e period up to 2020* plan$ The Gth Annual Arctic $il and Eas #onference will be held on 12013 )o ember in Oslo3 Nor%ay$ -"ell*s recent announcement of its return to 'rctic %aters is likely to dominate t"e discussions$ %innish a iation unions plan to strike from 1,023 )o ember*

Published with intelligence support from Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www*bradburys*co*uk

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Analysts: ;aura 2artmann3 )ancrNde &euillade3 9ary #"an3 #laudia (agner3 aniel )aylor3 Patrick -e%ell and #"ris 'bbott$

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