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Market Overview
High rates of inflation and considerably poor performance by Construction, Mining & Quarrying and Manufacturing sectors pulled down the GDP growth rate in India to 7.7% during the first quarter of 2011-2012 (April 2011- June 2011). Reserve bank of India (RBI), in view of the uncertainty in the global macroeconomic situation, has been revising the repo and reverse repo rates quarter on quarter to decouple the economy from adverse effects of the high global inflation rates. High Inflation and rising interest rates has dampened the affordability of the prospective buyer and has also lead to deferred purchase decision in hope of price corrections in the future. In spite of a hike in the property prices in the first half of 2011 (January 2011- June 2011), by the end of September 2011, most cities were observed to register stabilization. New project launches continued but most investors/end-users maintained a cautious approach weighing the initiative before making a commitment. The developers also have been extremely vigilant of their projects and have priced innovatively to address the sensitivity articulated by the buyers.
(GDP) at factor cost (at 2004-05 prices) grew by 7.7% during the first quarter of 2011-2012 (April 2011- June 2011) compared to 8.8% during the same period in the previous year. Poor performance by the various sectors of the economy coupled with high inflation rates resulted in lowering of the growth rate; and therefore the countrys GDP was estimated at INR 12,26,339 crore for the first quarter of 2011-2012(April
9.6%
9.3%
9.3%
10.1%
7.8% 7.7%
9.7%
9.4%
8.5% 7.5%
8.6% 5.8%
2011- June 2011). Only two segments - Trade, hotels, transport & communication and the Financing,
INR/ USD 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42
48.44 46.72 46.57 46.63
insurance & business services sector recorded better performance by registering growth of 12.8% and 9.1% respectively. Reserve bank of India (RBI) had announced a further revision in the repo and reverse repo rates in the Mid Quarter Monetary Policy Review, September 2011. The revision increased the repo rate by about 25 basis points to 8.50% and reverse repo rate was adjusted to 7.25% with immediate effect. The uncertainty in the global macroeconomic situation coupled with the high inflation rates in India which are expected to persist for further period of time in the near future has attributed to this revision. Overall appreciation in the rupee against the US dollar was observed during the period of June 2011July 2011 however rupee depreciated during the period of August 2011-September 2011. Despite the revisions in the interest rates by the RBI on a continuous basis to cushion the economy from the adverse effects of the high global commodity prices and uncertainties, the inflationary tendencies continue to depreciate the rupee value. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in housing and real estate sector was recorded at approximately INR 620 crore during the first two months of the second quarter of 2011-2012 (July 2011- September 2011). Inflow was lower than the investment registered during the same time period in 2010-2011 (a decline by about 31%). This is primarily attributed to the macroeconomic instability and cautious investor attitude prevailing across the world on account of the sovereign debt crisis, US credit rating down gradation, Euro zone crisis among others. The BSE Realty Index continued with its subdued trend during the week ended 30th September 2011. The realty index since the beginning of the year has
46.54
46.84
47.63 46.57 46.06 45.02 45.16 45.39 44.37 45.44 44.97 44.90 44.83 45.25 44.42
13586
Source: BSE
remained quite conservative though it recorded minor variations in the course. In spite of revival in demand in the earlier quarters of 2011 followed by price appreciation across major markets, the developers profit margin has not strengthened. Moreover, the uncertainties in the global markets have further accentuated the discomfort levels thereby restraining any upward movement in the real estate stock.
Residential Overview
Capital values of the residential properties across the major metros remained stabilized during the period July-September 2011. Some markets though registered appreciation in the first two months of quarter; however, by the end of the quarter exhibited stabilization. Most of the appreciation was in the nature of minor adjustments due to lesser availability in certain locations. The increased concern prevailing in the global markets resulted in a degree of discomfort in the local markets with investments in the sector drying up to some extent. Besides, the high inflationary conditions and the high interest rates also effected the stabilization in the prices. During the period July-September 2011, western region dominated and accounted for approximately 39% of the new residential unit launches closely followed by the south India. In contrast to the previous quarter wherein most launches were in the high segments, most of the new unit launches during the period under review were recorded in the mid segment category. On account of the uncertainty prevailing in the market, the growth of the residential sector is expected to be slower in the medium term. The growth in demand which has remained steady during the past one year is likely to be governed by the prevailing economic situation over the next few quarters. However, over the next few years, the underlying demand for housing units and the shortage which drives the demand is likely to get robust which might result in a much more steady and stable restoration of growth in the housing sector.
New unit launches (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Bangalore (Burnton Road Lavalle Road) Hyderabad (Banjara Hills) Mumbai (South) Pune (Koregaon Park)
Chennai (Boat Club) Kolkata (Ballygunge) NCR (Satya Niketan Anand Niketan)
20% 7% 2%
noticed to surface. As the first half of 2011 drew to a closure, factors such as rising interest rates, inflation and slowing global economies were noticed to impede the growth in the property market. Confronted with high construction costs driven by inflation, several developers have been forced to increase the prices
Supply
Demand
Gap (%)
Gap (%)
of their properties. In order to tame rising inflation, RBI increased the interest rates. Home buyers across the country were affected as housing loan interest rates became dearer. Despite being weighed down by the implications of tightening credit policies, several markets including NCR, Bangalore, Chennai and Kolkata have reflected positive sentiments resulting from end user demand. On the other hand, cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad and Pune are witnessing a downtrend in property registrations with increased end user sensitivity to higher home loan interest rates and excessive hike in prices. Property prices reached new peak levels on account of high construction costs and anticipated demand. Premium markets in southern Mumbai and
Demand Supply
Housing Units
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
Central Delhi were noticed to surpass their earlier established peak pricing levels. During the first half of 2011, the residential sector registered a number of project launches across the top seven cities.
Outlook
The housing demand supply scenario from 201115 and the resulting gap is likely to be governed by the overall residential market scenario in the next five years. Despite the current cautious approach by home buyers and developers, the cumulative demand in top seven cities from 2011-15 is likely to exceed the supply by 2.3 times. As a result of this the market is expected to remain buoyant during the next five years. In markets where maximum demand is anticipated, property prices are expected to witness an upward movement. Relatively lower demand supply gap in tier
II cities is likely to result in slower price growth during the same time period. Additionally large inventory of high end projects that were launched in light of the quick recovery in 2010 is expected to keep check on the appreciation of high end property prices in the years to follow. Low Income Group (LIG) and Economically Weaker
Section (EWS) housing segments will continue to see a high demand supply gap in the next five years. With the implementation of several policy reforms regarding allocation of developed land to LIG and EWS segment, increased supply in this segment is anticipated over the next few years.
Index
Ahmedabad 7 Bangalore 10 Chennai 14 Hyderabad 17 Kolkata 21 Mumbai National Capital Region 24 27
Pune 31
Ahmedabad
Market Overview
Third quarter of 2011 witnessed an improved demand of residential segment of Ahmedabad, with more sales witnessed in readily available properties. Owing to an improvement in demand, capital values across most micro markets witnessed an appreciation in capital values in this quarter. Residential precincts of Thaltej and Motera catering to mid-segment witnessed construction activities in this quarter. Some of the residential projects, including Infinity (Dev Nandan Group) and Maple County 1 & 2 (Ganesh Housing) are likely to be available for possession in the beginning of 2012. There is a rush of real estate activity in the area between S.G. Highway and SP Ring Road, after the area has been notified as R3 zone by Ahmedabad Municipal
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
2,800
2,550
2,500
Corporation. This zone is meant for bungalows with a minimum plot of 1,200 square yards. As a result, the area between Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar are developing horizontally and vertical development has been stopped resulting in a surge in values.
Average Capital values High end (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Satellite Vastrapur S.G.Highway Prahlad Nagar Q1 2010
3.8-4.3 3.4-3.7 3.5-4.1 4.0-5.0
Q2 2010
3.9-4.6 3.6-4.0 3.5-4.1 4.1-5.0
Q3 2010
4.0-4.6 3.6-4.0 3.6-4.3 4.2-5.2
Q4 2010
4.0-4.8 3.7-4.0 3.7-4.3 4.2-5.3
Q1 2011
4.3-5.0 3.7-4.0 3.7-4.3 4.2-5.3
Q2 2011
4.3-5.1 3.7-4.0 3.7-4.5 4.2-5.3
Q3 2011
4.3-6 3.7-5 3.7-4.5 4.2-6
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units of 2000-4000 sq.ft.
Average Capital values Mid range (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Satellite Vastrapur S.G.Highway Prahlad Nagar Q1 2010
2.8-3.4 2.6-3.2 2.8-3.4 2.7-3.3
Q2 2010
2.8-3.6 2.6-3.3 2.8-3.4 2.7-3.3
Q3 2010
2.8-3.8 2.6-3.5 3.0-3.6 2.8-3.6
Q4 2010
2.8-3.8 2.6-3.5 3.0-3.8 2.8-3.6
Q1 2011
2.8-4.1 2.6-3.6 3.3-4.1 2.8-3.6
Q2 2011
2.8-4.2 2.6-3.8 3.3-4.2 3.0-4.0
Q3 2011
2.8-4.3 2.6-3.8 3.3-4.3 3.2-4.2
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1200-1800 sq.ft.
New Launches
With most developers focusing on completing the existing projects in Satellite, S.G. Highway and Motera, the city witnessed restrained new project launches in this quarter. The decline in new launches can be attributed to the liquidity crisis faced by real estate developers on account of hike in interest rates by Reserve Bank of India.
Project Name Swagat Aord Merlin Sparsh Altius Living Santoor Grace Developer Swagat Infrastructure Merlin Projects Ltd. Synthesis Spacelinks Sanskar Infracon Location Gandhinagar Narol Thaltej Gandhinagar Number of Units* 480 169 40 650 2BHK: 1197sq.ft. 2BHK: 945sq.ft. to 1080sq.ft. 3BHK: 2820sq .ft. 2BHK: 1170sq.ft. 3BHK: 1620sq.ft. * Estimated and as per market information Area of Units
The city has seen an infusion of 1,000-1,100 new residential units mainly in sub-urban and peripheral locations of Ahmedabad, like Thaltej and Narol in third quarter of 2011.
Outlook
It is expected that prices in existing projects will remain stable in next three months. As a result of drop in the number of new project launches, a few of new launches are likely to have a reasonable price levels to attract buyers.
Bangalore
Market Overview
Bangalore residential market witnessed a sense of cautiousness on account of uncertainties in the global markets. Sales market remained subdued across both the high and mid segments due to high price points as well as high interest rates creating further pressure on affordability. Buyers were observed to postpone their buying decision in anticipation that prices may decline in near future resulting in some spill over demand for rental accommodation. Capital values mostly remained stable, barring marginal appreciation in select micro markets in Off Central, North and South East Bangalore, which was more in the nature of an adjustment in the prices.
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
Certain sectors of the Bangalore Metro Rail Project Phase I became operational in October 2011. With these completion, select micro markets wherein/ or in vicinity, metro stations are situated are likely to witness better connectivity and reduced congestion, subsequently leading to an increase in prominence of these locations.
preferred due to comparatively lower price points compared to the ready stock.
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Average Capital values High end (INR000/Sqft) Location Central South O Central East North 2009
12.00-14.50 6.00-8.50 5.00-6.60 5.60-7.00 5.50-7.00
Q1 2010
12.00-15.00 5.50-9.00 5.00-6.60 5.60-6.80 5.50-6.50
Q2 2010
13.00-16.00 5.80-9.00 5.00-6.80 6.00-7.00 5.50-6.80
Q3 2010
13.00-16.00 5.80-9.00 5.00-6.80 6.00-7.00 5.50-7.00
Q4 2010
13.50-17.5 6.00-9.50 5.00-7.00 6.50-7.50 5.50-7.00
Q1 2011
13.60- 17.60 6.10-9.70 5.20-7.10 6.50-7.70 5.70-7.00
Q2 2011
14.00-18.00 6.50-10.00 5.50-7.50 6.80-8.00 6.00-7.40
Q3 2011
14.00-18.00 6.50-10.00 6.00-8.50 6.80-8.00 6.50-8.00
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units of 3,000-5,000 sq.ft.
Average Capital values Mid range (INR000/Sqft) Location Central East South East South North South West O Central* O Central** North West 2009
5.00-6.00 2.40-2.70 2.50-3.20 4.60-5.70 2.80-4.00 2.70-3.90 3.70-5.70 3.30-5.70 3.50-5.20
Q1 2010
5.00-6.50 2.40-2.90 2.50-3.50 4.60-5.70 2.60-4.30 2.90-3.90 3.70-5.70 3.50-5.70 3.50-5.10
Q2 2010
5.20-6.60 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.80 4.60-5.80 2.80-4.30 3.00-4.30 3.80-5.90 3.60-5.90 3.80-5.40
Q3 2010
5.50-7.00 2.70-3.00 2.80-4.00 4.80-6.00 2.80-4.30 3.20-4.50 4.00-6.20 3.80-6.20 3.80-5.60
Q4 2010
5.50-7.00 2.70-3.10 2.80-4.00 4.80-6.00 2.80-4.40 3.20-4.50 4.00-6.20 3.80-6.20 3.80-5.60
Q1 2011
5.60-7.10 2.70-3.30 2.80-4.30 4.80-6.30 2.80-4.50 3.30-4.70 4.20-6.40 3.90-6.40 3.90-5.80
Q2 2011
5.80-7.40 3.00-3.50 3.00-4.50 5.00-6.50 3.00-4.80 3.60-5.00 4.50-6.70 4.30-6.70 4.30-6.20
Q3 2011
6.00-7.50 3.20-3.80 3.40-5.00 5.00-6.50 3.00-4.80 3.60-5.00 4.50-6.70 4.30-6.70 4.30-6.20
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1,700-2,500 sq.ft.
Key to Locations:
High Segment Central: Lavelle Road, Off Palace Road, Off Cunnigham Road, Ulsoor Road, Richmond Road South: Koramangala, Outer Ring Road, Bannerghatta Road, JP Nagar Off Central: Frazer Town, Benson Town, Richards Town, Dollars Colony East: Whitefield (villas) North: Hebbal, Yelahanka, Jakkur, Devanahalli
11
Mid Segment Central: Brunton Road, Artillery Road, Ali Askar Road, Cunningham Road East: Marathalli, Whitefield, Airport Road South East: Sarjapur Road, Outer Ring Road, HSR Layout South: Koramangala, Jakkasandra South West: Jayanagar, J P Nagar, Kanakpura Road,
Bannerghatta Road, BTM Layout North: Hebbal, Bellary Road, Yelahanka, Dodballapur Road, Jalahalli Off Central*: Vasanth Nagar, Richmond Town, Indiranagar Off Central*:* Cox Town, Frazer Town, HRBR, Benson Town, etc North West: Malleshwaram, Rajajinagar
New Launches
In the backdrop of cautiousness in the market and buyers postponing their purchase decisions, the residential market in Bangalore continued to witness some aggressive new launches from the prominent developers. New project launches were mostly in upper segment brackets and developers were observed to mostly initiate pre-launch of new projects and offered customised discounts for the buyers. New launches were spread across the city CBD, suburban and peripheral regions. SarjapurMarathahalli Ring Road corridor accounted for the majority of the launches due to persistent demand in the micro market. Most of the new launches were apartment developments. Prominent among them includes Prestige Edwardian, Prestige Sunnyside, Vaishnavi Terraces, and Prestige Park View.
12
Area of Units 2BHK: 1218sq.ft. to 1294sq.ft. 3BHK: 1760sq.ft. to 1913sq.ft. 4BHK: 2439sq.ft.
2BHK: 1220sq.ft. to 1272sq.ft. 3BHK: 1704sq.ft. to 2023sq.ft. 2BHK:1023sq.ft. to 1127sq.ft. 3BHK:1406sq.ft. to 1419sq.ft. 1BHK+Study: 700sq.ft. 2BHK: 900sq.ft. 3BHK: 1150sq.ft.
Embassy Pristine
Embassy Group
Sarjapur Outer Ring Road Edward Road J.P. Nagar, 8th Main Road
424
26 198
Outlook
Significant capital value appreciations are unlikely in the forth coming quarters. This is primarily on account of the high price points already attained across most micro markets coupled with high interest rates and subdued demand. Marginal escalations in capital value of second generation properties in certain micro markets are likely on account of high price points commanded by few significant Grade A developments in the vicinity. New project launches are likely to continue however new launches will have a greater share of the high segment developments in view of high land, construction and other associated costs. Developers will continue to offer good price propositions and better bargains to ensure quick uptakes and consistent demand.
13
Chennai
Market Overview
As a result of low availability of land and limited property options in established residential markets, property prices in these locations remained high. Home buyers in the mid and affordable segment remained cautious about interest rate movements and rising inflationary pressures thereby resulting in moderation of demand in this segment.
Price (INR/sft)-September 2011 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 19,000 19,500
21,000
12,000
Concept of budget homes was noticed to gain importance with several developers capitalizing this option to cater to the affordable segment. Leasing activity remained buoyant during the quarter with the mid segment end consumers altering their purchase decisions. Significant rental movement
Average Capital values High end (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Boat Club R A Puram Adyar Poes garden Nungambakkam Anna Nagar Kilpauk 2008
18-24 13-15 5.5-10 14.5-20 13-16 6-9 4-8
2009
18-20 13-15 5.5-9.5 14.5-18 13-16 6-9 4-8
Q1 2010
18-21 13-16.5 6-11 14.5-19 13-16.5 6.5-10 5-9
Q2 2010
18-21 13-16.5 8-12 14.5-19 13-16.5 7.5-10.5 6-9.5
Q3 2010
18-21 13-16.5 8-12 14.5-19 13-16.5 7.5-10.5 7.25-11
Q4 2010
18-23 13-16.5 8-12 14.5-20 13-16.5 7.5-10.5 7.25-11
Q1 2011
19-23 13-16.5 8-12 15-20 13-16.5 8-10.5 7.75-11
Q2 2011
19-23.5 13-16.5 8-12 15.5-20.5 13-16.5 8-10.5 7.75-11
Q3 2011
20-24.5 13-16.5 10-13.5 15.5-23.5 13-17 8-11.5 8.5-12
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units of 1,800-4,000 sq.ft.
14
Average Capital values Mid range (INR 000/Sq.ft) Location R A Puram Adyar Rajiv Gandhi Salai (Perungudi) Velachery Poes Garden T Nagar Nungambakkam Anna Nagar Kilpauk 2008
6.5-9 4.5-6.5 2.5-3.6 3.8-4.2 10-15.5 4-6.5 7-9.5 5.5-7 4.5-6
2009
6.5-9 4.5-6.5 2.5-2.8 3.5-4 10-14 4-6.5 7-8 5.5-7 4.5-6
Q1 2010
6.5-9 5-6.5 2.5-3.25 3.5-4.5 10-14 5-6.5 7-9 6-7 5-6
Q2 2010
6.5-9 6-8.5 3-4 3.5-5 10-14 6.5-9 9-11.5 6-7.5 5-6
Q3 2010
6.5-9 6-8.5 3.5-4.5 3.5-5 10-14 7.5-10.5 9-11.5 6-7.5 5-6
Q4 2010
6.5-9 6-8.5 3.5-4.5 3.5-5 10-14 7.5-10.5 9-11.5 6-7.5 5-6
Q1 2011
6.5-9 6-8.5 3.8-5 3.5-5 10-14 7.5-10.5 9-11.5 6-7.5 5-6
Q2 2011
7-9.5 6-8.5 4-5.5 3.5-5.3 10-14 7.7-11 9-11.5 6-7.5 5-6
Q3 2011
7-9.5 6.5-10 4-5.5 3.5-5.5 10-14 8-11 9-11.5 6-7.5 5.5-7.5
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1,000-2,000 sq.ft.
New Launches
Number of residential launches during the Maximum number of launches in the high end segment were noticed be along the ECR road. Close to 40% of the projects were noticed along this stretch. Some of the prominent developers including Casa Grande and Landmark Builders were noticed to tap this market during the quarter. quarter noticed a minor dip due to the mixed market sentiments. However number of units rolled out during the quarter was registered at around 50% of the units launched in the previous quarter. Residential market witnessed majority of the launches in the high end segment and affordable segment unlike the previous quarters when majority new projects were rolled out in the mid segment.
15
Project Name
Developer
Location
Number of Units*
Area of Units
Coral Reef Versailles Aqua 7 Avenue 14th Cross Street Vaigai Street Atvarika
th
Casa Grande Casa Grande Landmark Constructions Kgeyes Builders Kgeyes Builders Kgeyes Builders Asvini Foundations
Thiruvanmiyur Uthandi, ECR Neelankarai, ECR Besant Nagar Besant Nagar Kalakshetra Colony Kelambakkam - Kovalam Main Road, OMR
8 17 4 16 24 86 55
3BHK: 1779sq.ft. to 1851sq.ft. 4BHK: 4800sq.ft. 3BHK: 5800sq.ft. 2BHK: 932sq.ft. to 944sq.ft. 2BHK: 610sq.ft. to 765sq.ft. 3BHK: 1500sq.ft. 2BHK: 1403sq.ft. 3BHK: 1740sq.ft.
Marg Properties
1,008
200 138
Outlook
Capital values across most locations are likely to remain stable factoring slowing economic conditions. Anticipated drop in demand is expected to keep a check on the number of launches in the market especially in the mid end and affordable segment.
16
Hyderabad
Market Overview
Third quarter also has recorded fewer launches due to the prevailing uncertainty over the recent regulation (G.O.45) which commands a part of the developed land to EWS and LIG housing, and an anticipated drop in the overall demand. Developers are waiting for the study committee report and the revisions to be made by the state government before announcing new projects.
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research Price (INR/sft)-September 2011
5,100
A modest price drop was witnessed in the peripehral locations of Gachibowli, Tellapur, master plan for 2031.The proposed regional and urban area road networks, public transport routes, freight terminals and logistic hubs in the master plan are likely to improve the connectivity outside the municipal corporation and is expected to result in overall development of the city. Upon successful implementation of the plan, the suburban and periurban locations are likely to witness gradual urban growth and residential development resulting in a considerable appreciation of land values and escalation of housing prices. Bandlaguda and Kompally largely due to the stabilization of demand. The end user cofidence continued to remain low with the rising interest rates and construction delays. New launches in high end and affordable segments were largely located in Gachibowli and Tellapur. Villa project by NSL Infratech and the IGBP certified Green Bulding project by S&S projects launched during this quarter have received moderate attention. The Hyderabad metropolitan development authority (HMDA) has recently come up with a
Average Capital values High end (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Banjara Hills Jubilee Hills Himayatnagar West & East Marredpally Begumpet, Somajiguda Madhapur, Gachibowli Kukatpally Miyapur, Nizampet Road 2008
6.5-7.1 6.5-7.1 3.4-4.4
2009
5.8-6.5 5.5-6.3 3.3-4.0
Q1 2010
6.0-6.7 5.7-6.6 3.5-4.0
Q2 2010
6.0-7.0 5.7-7.0 3.7-4.0
Q3 2010
6.0-7.0 5.7-7.0 3.5-4.0
Q4 2010
6.0-7.2 6.0-7.0 3.7-4.0
Q1 2011
6.0-7.4 6.0-7.0 3.7-4.0
Q2 2011
6.3-7.4 6.2-7.0 3.7-4.0
Q3 2011
6.3-7.5 6.2-7.1 3.7-4.0
3.3-4.3
3.3-3.8
3.3-3.9
3.5-4.0
3.5-4.0
3.5-4.0
3.5-4.2
3.6-4.2
3.6-4.2
3.9-4.5
3.9-4.5
3.9-4.5
4.1-4.5
4.1-4.5
4.1-4.5
4.1-4.7
4.3-4.7
4.3-4.7
3.8-4.4
3.5-4.3
3.7-4.5
3.8-4.5
3.8-4.7
3.8-4.9
3.8-5.0
4.0-5.0
3.9-5.0
3.3-4.0
3.5-4.3
3.5-4.3
3.5-4.5
3.5-4.5
3.5-4.8
3.8-4.8
3.8-5.0
2.6-3.3
2.7-3.4
2.7-3.4
2.7-3.4
2.7-3.4
2.7-3.4
2.7-3.4
2.8-3.4
Source: Cushman and Wake eld Research The above values for high range typically include units of 1,600-3,200 sq.ft.
Average Capital values Mid end (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Banjara Hills Jubilee Hills Himayatnagar West & East Marredpally Begumpet, Somajiguda Madhapur, Gachibowli Kukatpally Miyapur, Nizampet Road 2008
3.4-4.2 3.4-4.0 2.6-3.0
2009
3.6-4.2 3.5-4.0 2.7-3.0
Q1 2010
3.6-4.3 3.7-4.0 2.7-3.2
Q2 2010
3.6-4.3 3.7-4.0 2.7-3.5
Q3 2010
3.6-4.5 3.7-4.0 2.7-3.5
Q4 2010
3.6-4.5 3.7-4.0 2.7-3.5
Q1 2011
3.6-4.5 3.7-4.0 2.7-3.5
Q2 2011
3.8-4.5 3.9-4.2 2.7-3.5
Q3 2011
3.8-4.6 4.0-4.2 2.7-3.5
2.5-3.0
2.5-2.8
2.5-2.9
2.7-3.0
2.7-3.0
2.7-3.0
2.7-3.0
2.8-3.0
2.8-3.0
2.5-3.0
2.6-3.1
2.8-3.1
2.8-3.5
2.8-3.5
2.8-3.5
2.8-3.5
2.9-3.5
2.9-3.5
2.6-3.0
2.5-3.1
2.5-2.9
2.6-3.2
2.6-3.2
2.6-3.4
2.6-3.4
2.8-3.4
2.8-3.3
2.4-2.9
2.6-3.2
2.6-3.2
2.6-3.2
2.7-3.2
2.7-3.2
2.9-3.2
2.9-3.3
1.8-2.5
1.8-2.5
1.8-2.5
1.8-2.5
1.8-2.5
1.8-2.7
2.4-2.7
2.4-2.7
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research The above values for mid range typically include units of 1,200-1,600 sq.ft.
Several projects such as Quiescent Heights, Empress Towers, Rainbow vistas, Padmanabha Residency and Aparna Hill park which recorded a healthy upward trend during the first half have mostly remained stable in terms of property prices during this quarter. Several developers have announced festival offers
and promotions in the wake of redued interest from the home buyers hoping to boost sales in the second half of 2011. Offering additional furniture in the units, lowered booking prices are some of the sales strategies adopted by the developers.
New Launches
The number of new launches has reduced as compared to the last two quarters. Three projects totalling up to approximately 350 units were launched across the high end and affordable segments. Developers are anticipating revisions in the land reservation clause and are delaying the project launches. Moreover, the transaction activity across the city has remained moderate thereby forcing the developers to reconsider their new projects in pipeline.
Project Name Divyasree Orion Green Grace Honey Dew Developer NSL Infratech S&S Green projects SST Realtors Pvt. Ltd., Exclusive Ventures & Aakriti Infra * Estimated and as per market information Location Gachibowli Gachibowli Gachibowli Number of Units* 66 150 128 4BR+4T: 3240sq.ft. 5BR+5T: 4680sq.ft. 3BR+3T: 2010sq.ft. to 2870sq.ft. 2BR+2T: 1200sq.ft. to 1390sq.ft. 3BR+3T: 2085sq.ft. to 2235sq.ft. Area of Units
All the new launches during this quarter were located in the peripheral region of Gachibowli, in close proximity to the financial district. Gachibowli being the centre of the financial district enjoys higher transportation connectivity and better infrastructure providing a higher potential for growth.
Outlook
The current trend of very few project launches is anticipated during the next quarter. Transaction activity across the city is likely to remain moderate largely due to the high interest rates and dampened sentiments of the home buyers. Property prices in the peripheries are likely to remain stable during the next quarter. However, due to limited availability of ready properties, anticipated demand growth and owing to their prominence, certain key areas such as Banjara Hills, Jubilee Hills, Kukatpally and Madhapur are likely to see a minor appreciation in property prices.
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Kolkata
Market Overview
Residential market in Kolkata did not reflect much enthusiasm as the transaction scenario remained moderate in spite of demand. Sale of mid range projects seemed to get affected as consumer mindset was disturbed by the rising inflation and increasing home loan rates. Rajarhat remained the hub of real estate activity as developers and consumers both seemed confident about its assured investment returns.
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
With the central Govt drafting the new Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, investors seemed hesitant regarding the land acquisition process.
established locations like Southern Avenue and Ballygunge witnessed almost 3% and 4% increase in high end values.
2009
4.8-5.9
Q1 2010
4.9-6.0
Q2 2010
5.3-6.5
Q3 2010
5.3-6.8
Q4 2010
5.3-6.8
Q1 2011
6.0-8.0
Q2 2011
6.3-8.0
Q3 2011
6.3-8.5 10.0-18.0
South South Central South East South West Central East North East
9.0-10.0
8.5-9.6
8.5-10.0
9.5-11.5
9.5-13.0
9.5-13.0
9.5-14.0
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units of 2,000-4,000 sq.ft.
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2009
2.7-3.9
Q1 2010
2.9-4.0
Q2 2010
3.2-4.5
Q3 2010
3.2-4.5
Q4 2010
3.2-4.5
Q1 2011
3.2-5.0
Q2 2011
3.8-5.5
Q3 2011
3.8-5.5 5.5-8.0
4.5-5.5
4.2-5.3
4.3-5.4
4.5-5.8
4.5-6.0
4.5-6.0
5.0-7.0
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1,600-2,000 sq.ft.
Key to Locations:
South*: Southern Avenue, Dover Lane South Central*: Ballygunge, Queens Park, Rainy Park, Gurusaday Road, etc. South East: EM Bypass SouthWest: Alipore Park Road,Ashoka Road, East: Salt Lake North East: Rajarhat South**: New Alipore, Golf Green,Tollygunge, etc. South Central**: Hindustan Park North: Kankurgachi, Lake Town, Jessore Road, Ultadanga, etc.
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New Launches
Third quarter witnessed increased project launches in high end and mid range in comparison with the second quarter. Almost 1,776 units were launched during the third quarter, significantly high compared to approximately 648 units in the second quarter. Quite a few of them were deferred launches which were scheduled earlier. One of the most ambitious residential projects was launched at EM Bypass during the third quarter. The project is set to be one of the benchmark residential projects in the city consisting of 80 single and double floor villas offering international architecture and super luxury amenities.
Project Name Orbit Skygarden Orbit Crystal Atmosphere Ideal Exotica Developer Orbit Group Orbit Group Forum Projects Ideal Group Location Bondel Road Alipore Road EM Bypass New Alipore 46 18 80 158 Number of Units* 4BHK: 2700sq.ft. to 3500sq.ft. 4BHK: 4000sq.ft. to 5000sq.ft. Villa: 5700sq.ft. to 8500sq.ft. 3BHK: 2600sq.ft. 4BHK: 3500sq.ft. 5BHK: 4000sq.ft. Duplex: 10000sq.ft. Triplex: 11000sq.ft. Harmony Greentech City Rishi Meridian Emami City Aspiration & Purti Group Vedic Realty Mittal Group Emami Realty Rajarhat Rajarhat Jessore Road 200 168 952 Rajarhat 154 2BHK: 876sq.ft.to 955sq.ft. 3BHK: 1142sq.ft.to 1354sq.ft. 3BHK: 1963sq.ft. to 2043sq.ft. 4BHK: 2495sq.ft. to 2615sq.ft. 2BHK: 990sq.ft. 3BHK: 1310sq.ft.to 1350sq.ft. 2BHK: 1170sq.ft.to 1800sq.ft. 3BHK: 1800sq.ft. Area of Units
Almost 4 major high end projects were launched in established locations like Alipore Road Bondel Road and EMBYpass by reputed developers within a range of Rs 12000 to Rs.17000. Almost 1,474 units were launched in mid range segment by reputed developers priced between Rs 2,090 to Rs 3,600/- per sq ft. projects were launched in Rajarhat.
Outlook
The residential market is likely to exhibit a vibrant scenario in the coming quarters. However further increase in home loan rates and construction material cost can dampen the consumer mindset in the mid range segment Peripheral locations will continue to see increased project launches with improved infrastructure.
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Mumbai
Market Overview
The residential market in Mumbai witnessed lack of activities during the third quarter. The rising interest rates and the liquidity concerns have kept developers away from venturing into any new projects. Prevailing prices of premium properties in the prime locations have witnessed minor appreciation however, transactions have significantly reduced. There was a clear indication of increased end user confidence and interest for completed projects in the mid ranged segment. This had resulted in the appreciation of capital values in select micro markets catering primarily to the mid segment. The state government is planning for better rail connectivity via a fast corridor from south Mumbai to the new international airport planned at Navi Mumbai. It has proposed a special purpose vehicle with the Indian Railways to execute and implement
Price (INR/sft)-September 2011
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
30000
this project, which will have fully air- conditioned train services. Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has decided to appoint a third-party auditor to monitor and supervise the work on minor roads given the need for repairs.
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2009
42.5-58 42- 66 34-55 22-30 10-16.5 10-16
Q1 2010
42.5-58 42-66 34-55 22-30 10-16.5 10-16
Q2 2010
43-60 45-70 35-55 24-31 11-16.5 10-16
Q3 2010
43-60 45-70 35-55 24-31 11-16.5 10-16
Q4 2010
43-60 45-70 35-55 24-32 11-16.5 10-16
Q1 2011
43-60 45-70 35-55 24-32 11-16.5 10-16
Q2 2011
45-65 45-75 35-55 24-32 11-16.5 10-17
Q3 2011
45-65 45-75 35-55 24-32 11-16.5 10-18
Average Capital values Mid range (INR000/Sq.ft.) Location South South Central Central North Far North North East 2008
27-34 34-43 18-28 13.5-19.5 7-9 6-7.4
2009
28-37 35-45 15-26 16-24 8.5-11.5 6.4-8.5
Q1 2010
28-38 36-46 15.5-27 16-24 9-12 6.5-8.5
Q2 2010
30-40 40-48 15.5-30 16-24 9-12 6.5-8.5
Q3 2010
30-40 40-48 15.5-30 16-24 9-12 6.5-8.5
Q4 2010
30-40 40-48 17-30 16-25 9-12 6.5-8.5
Q1 2011
30-40 40-48 17-30 16-25 9-12 6.5-8.5
Q2 2011
30-40 40-48 17-30 16-25 9-12 7-8.5
Q3 2011
30-40 40-48 17-35 16-25 9-13 7-10
Note: High Range- Approximately 2500 sq.ft. to 6000 sq.ft. for South, South Central, Central and North (Bandra & Khar) Approximately 1800 sq.ft. to 4000 sq.ft. for North (Santacruz & Juhu), Far North and North East Mid Range - Approximately 1400 sq.ft. to 2500 sq.ft. for South, South Central, Central and North Approximately 1200 sq.ft. to 1600 sq.ft. for Far North and North East
Key to Locations:
South: Colaba, Cuffe Parade, Nariman Point, Central: Worli, Prabhadevi, Lower Parel/Parel North: Bandra (W), Khar (W), Santacruz (W), Juhu, etc. Far North: Andheri (W), Malad, Goregaon, etc. North East: Powai Churchgate, etc. South Central: Altamount Road, Carmichael Road, Malabar Hill, Napeansea Road, Breach Candy, Pedder Road, etc.
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New Launches
There were only 2 significant projects launched towards the end of the third quarter. Developers have been apprehensive of launching new projects due to the rising interest rates and the reduced interest among buyers due to the prevailing economic uncertainties. The onset of the festive season in the coming quarter is likely to see launch of several new projects as developers have stayed away from the market for a long time.
Area of Units 2BR: 1260sq.ft. 3BR: 2660sq.ft. 2BHK: 1350sq.ft. 2.5BHK: 1550sq.ft. 3BHK: 1850sq.ft.
Outlook
The next quarter is expected to see the launch of several new projects in the light of the festive season. Price points are expected to increase across all the micro markets as the developers will be left with no choice to account for the rising cost of raw materials and lower saleable area as per the new regulation
25
increased land costs which is likely to result in increase of property prices, if the bill is approved by the Parliament in the winter session. Buyer is concerned about the land acquisition problem and the expected announcement on the policy amidst rising interest rates and increasing property prices.
Rehabilitation and Resettlement Bill, 2011 is likely to have an adverse affect on the developers with
in Gurgaon owing to a number of factors mainly slow construction schedule of under construction projects and limited of risk appetite of the buyer in a dynamic economic environment.
2009
29 - 34 21 - 24 21 - 25 40 - 45 5.3 12.5 5.2 6.5
Q1 2010
30-35 21-25 22-25.5 40-45 6-15 5.3-6.7
Q2 2010
30.5-35.5 21.5-25.5 23-26 40-45 6-15 5.4-6.8
Q3 2010
36-43 24-30 25-32 50-57 6.2-18 5.5-7
Q4 2010
36-43 24-30 25-32 50-57 6.2-18 5.5-7
Q1 2011
36-45 24-30 25-35 50-60 7.5-20 5.5-7
Q2 2011
40-47 25-32 27-40 50-60 8.5-21 5.5-7.5
Q3 2011
42-50 25-35 27-40 50-65 8.5-21 5.5-7.5
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units of 2,000-4,000 sq.ft.
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Average Capital values Mid range (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location South East South Central Gurgaon Noida 2008
14-16 18-20 3.8-5.2 3-4.5
2009
14.5-16.5 18.5 20.5 4 6.5 3.2 5.5
Q1 2010
15-17.5 18.5-20.5 4.2-7 3.3-5.6
Q2 2010
15-18 19-21 4.3 7.5 3.5 5.6
Q3 2010
15-20 20-23.5 4.5-7.5 3.8-5.6
Q4 2010
15-20 20-23.5 4.5-7.5 3.8-5.6
Q1 2011
15-22 20-25 4.8-8.5 4-5.6
Q2 2011
15-25 22-27 5-9 4.2-5.8
Q3 2011
15-28 25-30 5-9 4.2-5.8
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1,600-2,000 sq.ft.
Key to Locations:
High Segment South West: Shanti Niketan, Westend, Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar South East: Friends Colony East, Friends Colony West, Maharani Bagh, Greater Kailash - I, Greater Kailash II. South Central: Defence Colony, Anand Lok, Niti Bagh, Gulmohar Park, Hauz Khas Enclave, Safdarjung Mid Segment South East: New Friends Colony, Kalindi Colony, Ishwar Nagar, Sukhdev Vihar, Kailash Colony, Pamposh Enclave. South Central: Uday Park, Green Park, Saket, Asiad Village, Geetanjali Enclave, Safdarjung Enclave, Sarvapriya Vihar, Panchsheel Enclave, Navjeevan Vihar. Development Area, Mayfair Gardens, Panchsheel Park, Soami Nagar, Sarvodaya Enclave. Central: Jorbagh, Golf Links, Amrita Shergil Marg, Aurangzeb Road, Prithviraj Road, Sikandara Road, Tilak Marg, Ferozshah Road, Mann Singh Road, Sunder Nagar, Nizamuddin, Tees January Marg, Chanakyapuri.
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New Launches
Property sales have moderated in the last few months with buyers deferring their purchase decisions in hope of price corrections and further discounts in the future. The third quarter saw lesser number of new launches across both mid and high end segment compared to previous quarters. Select developers in the suburban locations have begun to offer subvention and discounts on the new launched to attract potential buyers. Developers have begun to offer plotted
developments as they provide immediate capital with lower development costs compared to high rise.
Gurgaon One
Alpha G Corp.
670
840 75 NA
Villa & Row Houses: 270Sq.Yds. to 692Sq.Yds. 3BHK: 1720sq.ft. to 3750sq.ft. 2BHK+Study: 1400sq.ft. to 1450sq.ft. 3BHK: 1700sq.ft. to 1750sq.ft. 3BHK+SQT: 1850sq.ft. to 1900sq.ft. 1BHK+1T+1SR: 925sq.ft. 2 BHK+2T: 1216sq.ft. to 1357sq.ft. 3 BHK+3T: 1390sq.ft. to 1402.sq.ft.
Unitech Crest View apartments Vatika India Next Plots BPTP Park Generations
Unitech
450
Vatika BPTP
1500 704
Outlook
In 2011, majority of the residential locations across Delhi locations with limited supply and prevalent demand are expected to remain stable or witness marginal appreciation. Suburban locations are likely to witness marginal correction by end of 2011 or beginning 2012 due to the fear of economic slowdown and rising interest rates.
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Pune
Market Overview
Interest rates hike announced by Reserve Bank of India, coupled with rising construction costs did not result in the decline in demand for residential units. Despite the hike in interest rates, there was stability in capital values across most micro markets in Pune. Residential precincts of NIBM Road, Baner and Balewadi witnessed an increase in construction activities in third quarter of 2011.
Source: Cushman & Wakeeld Research
4,000
Average Capital values High end (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Koregaon Park, Bundh Garden Aundh Kalyani Nagar Wanowrie 2008
9.6-12.7 4.9-6.1 7.6-9.6 3.4-4.5
2009
8.5-10.7 5-5.2 7.3-9.2 3.3-3.6
Q1 2010
8.5-12.5 5-5.5 7.3-10.5 3.3-4.2
Q2 2010
8.5-12.5 5-5.5 7.3-10.5 3.3-4.2
Q3 2010
9-13 5-5.5 8-12 4-5
Q4 2010
9-13 5-5.5 8-12 4-5
Q1 2011
9-13 5-6 8-12 4-5
Q2 2011
9-13 5-6 8-12 4-5
Q3 2011
9-13 5-6 7.5-12 4-5.5
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for high segment typically include units above 1500 sq.ft.
29
Average Capital values Mid range (INR 000/Sq.ft.) Location Koregaon Park, Bundh Garden Aundh Baner Wakad Kalyani Nagar Wanowrie 2008
4.5-5 3.5-4 3-3.8 2.5-3 4.5-5.5 3-3.2
2009
4.5-5.5 3.6-4.2 2.9-3.6 2.2-2.8 4.5-5.5 2.8-3.1
Q1 2010
4.5-5.5 3.6-4.5 3-4 2.4-3 4.5-5.5 3-3.2
Q2 2010
4.5-5.5 3.6-4.5 3-4 2.4-3 4.5-5.5 3-3.2
Q3 2010
4.5-6 4-5 3-4 2.6-3.4 5-6 3-3.8
Q4 2010
6-7 4-5 3.5-5.5 3.5-4 6.5-7 4-5.5
Q1 2011
6-7 4.5-5.5 3.8-5.5 3.5-4.2 6.5-7.5 4-5.5
Q2 2011
6-7 4.5-5.5 4-5.5 3.8-4.4 6.5-7.5 4-5.5 6-7 4-5 4-5
Q3 2011
Source: Cushman and Wakeeld Research Note: The above values for mid segment typically include units of 1,600-2,000 sq.ft.
New Launches
The city witnessed an infusion of residential units catering to both high-end, as well as mid-end segments. This infusion mainly catered to sub-urban and peripheral locations of city like Kharadi, Wakad, Wagholi and Hinjewadi. Projects are launched at pricing levels which are almost similar to prices launched in previous quarter. Developers are not resorting to increase in price for new developments even in strong market conditions.
30
Project Name
Developer
Location
Number of Units*
Area of Units
Colonnade Liviano
Kharadi Kharadi
65 350
2BHK: 1193sq.ft. 2BHK: 1374sq.ft. 2.5BHK: 1580sq.ft. 3BHK: 2195sq.ft. 4BHK: 2790sq.ft.
Kalpataru Serenity
Kalpataru
Manjri
60
Kalpataru and Waghere Joint Development B.U. Bhandari Landmarks Kolte-Patil Developers
2BHK: 1091sq.ft. 3BHK: 1449sq.ft. 3BHK: 2065sq.ft. 2BHK: 1160sq.ft. 3BHK: 1585sq.ft.
Ekta Residency
Kondhwa
66
1BHK: 750sq.ft. 2BHK: 1100sq.ft. 2 BHK: 1301sq. ft. 3 BHK: 1637sq. ft.
Beverly Hills
Sheth Realty
Hinjewadi
110
Park Titanium
Wakad
52
Aldea Espanola
Puranik Builders
Baner
755
My World
Baner
195
Akshay Flora
A.P. Bhandari
Kharadi
42
Mayur Samruddhi
Bunty Properties
Akurdi
21
Gagan Emerald
Gagan Properties
Kondhwa
500
Malpani Gardens
Malpani Estates
Wakad
16
Siddharth Heights
Siddharth Creations
Wanowrie
48
44 312
31
Outlook
The city has seen increased interest from investors in Mumbai, since the residential values in Pune market are fairly lower with respect to other metropolitan cities. With the arrival of festival season, there is likely to be an appreciation in capital values in coming months. This appreciation is likely to be seen in both high-end, as well as mid-end residential segments of Pune.
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This research report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield specially for distribution to Citibank customers.
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