MPM SAMPLE PAPER 3-MARKING SCHEME = =1Section A [45 marks] Answer all questions in this section.

1 The number of ships anchored at a port is recorded every week. The results for 26 particular weeks are as follows: 32 26 (a) Display the data in a stem-and-leaf diagram. (b) Find the median and interquartile range. (c) Draw a box-and-whisker plot to represent the data. (d) State the shape of the frequency distribution, giving a reason for your answer. a. B1 At least 5 stems 1 8 8 9 2 0 1 3 5 6 6 7 8 9 3 0 2 2 5 5 7 8 4 0 2 3 5 6 6 5 0 Key: 1|8 means 18 ships B1 B1 B1 M1 A1 B1 | | 31 40 50 18 25 | | | B1 B1 Depended on first B1 Median = (30 + 32) = 31 Q1 = #(7) = 25 or Q3 = #(20) = 40 Therefore interquartile range = 40 - 25 = 15 [2 marks] [3 marks] [4 marks] [2 marks] 28 27 43 38 21 42 35 18 19 37 25 50 45 46 35 23 32 40 18 20 26 29 30 46 b

= 1 - P(A | B).

B1

If A and B are independent, P(A B) = P(A) P(B) P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B) =1= 1 - P(A) = P(A')

B1 M1

A1

TOTAL : 5

3 The number of defective electrical components per 1000 components manufactured on a machine may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4.

(a) Calculate the probability that there are at most 3 defective electrical components in the next 100 components manufactured on the machine. [3 marks]

(b) State the assumptions that need to be made about the defective electrical components in order that the Poisson distribution is a suitable model. [2 marks] a X ~ P0(0.4) P(X 3) = e - 0.4 (1 + = 0.9992 b
. ! . !

. !

B1 M1

A1

Either one

Sampling of each group of 1000 components must be independent Each group of 1000 components is randomly chosen. Simple box with whiskers All correctly labelled Drawn with scale in graph paper

B1

B1 TOTAL : 5

4 The masses of bags of flour produced in a factory have mean 1.004 kg and standard deviation 0.006 kg.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected bag has a mass of at least 1 kg. State any assumptions made. [4 marks] M1 A1 TOTAL : 11

Q3 Q2 > Q2 Q1 or right whisker longer than left whisker Skewed right (or positive)

(b) Find the probability that the mean mass of 50 randomly selected bags is at least 1 kg. [4 marks] a

The events A and B are such that P(A) 0 and P(B) 0. [2 marks] [3 marks]

(a) Show that P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B). (b) Show that P(A' | B) = P(A') if A and B are independent. a P(A' | B) = B1

Assuming that the data is obtained after a prolonged and large volume involved, the masses are normally distributed. X ~ N(1.004, 0.006 2) .. P(X 1.000) = P(Z . ) = P(Z - 0.6667 ) = 0.74751 b ~
. 1.004,

B1

M1

M1 A1

Accept sketched area

B1 1.000) = P(Z P(
.. .

M1

= P(Z - 4.7140 ) M1 Accept sketched area =1 A1 TOTAL : 8 5 The proportion of fans of a certain football club who are able to explain the offside rule correctly is p. A random sample of 9 fans of the football club is selected and 6 fans are able to explain the offside rule correctly. Test the null hypothesis Ho: p = 0.8 against the alternative hypothesis H1: p < 0.8 at the 10% significance level. [6 marks] H0 : p = 0.8 and H1 : p < 0.8 X ~ B(9, 0.8) P(X 6) = 1 P(X = 7) P(X = 8) P(X = 9) 9 9 9 = 1- 0.8 0.2 - 0.8 0.2 - 0.8 7 8 9 = 0.2618 0.2618 > 10 % Insufficient evidence to reject H0 and so insufficient evidence to claim that the fans can explain the offside rule. OR using critical region method: CR is {0, 1, 2, 3} B1, 6 not in CR M1, A1 as above B1 B1 M1 A1 M1 A1 Accept values read from table Question 8 CAO for this comparison dep for comment in context (Reject : Accept H0.) TOTAL : 6 6 It is thought that there is an association between the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light. In order to investigate this, each of a random sample of 120 persons is subjected to a standard dose of ultraviolet light. The degree of the reaction for each person is noted, "-" indicating no reaction, "+" indicating a slight reaction and "++" indicating a strong reaction. The results are shown in the table below. Eye colour Reaction + ++ 7 29 21 Blue 8 10 9 Grey or green Brown 18 16 2

Accept other tabulated format + 0.316 0.456 0.015 ++ 2.213 0.450 6.017 NB These M1A1 marks cannot be implied by a correct final value of X 2 B1 X 2 = 20.94 M1 Refer to

Critical value at 5% level = 9.488 H1 is accepted. (or reject H0) There is strong evidence to suggest that there is association between the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light.

A1 A1

For 1 deg of freedom. No follow thr from here if wrong. CAO for cv For conclusion in context. NB if H0 H1 reversed, or correlation mentioned, do not award first B1 or final A1

TOTAL : 10

Test whether the data provide evidence, at the 5% significance level, that the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light are independent. [10 marks] 6 H0: the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light are independent H1: the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light are not independent; Expected Grey or Blue Brown frequencies green 15.675 7.425 9.900 + 26.125 12.375 16.500 ++ 15.200 7.200 9.600 Blue Contribution 4.801 Grey or green 0.045 Brown 6.627 B1 B1 M1 A1 Any row/column correct For expected values ( 2 dp) Both hypotheses in context

M1 A1

For valid attempt at (O-E)2/E. Any row column correct. For all correct

Section B [ 15 marks] Answer any one question in this section. 7 A random variable T, in hours, represents the life-span of a thermal detection system. The probability that the system fails to work at time t hour is given by P(T < t) = 1 - e (a) Find the probability that the system works continuously for at least 250 hours. (b) Calculate the median life-span of the system. (c) Find the probability density function of the life-span of the system and sketch its graph. [4 marks] (d) Calculate the expected life-span of the system. a = e = 0.385 A1 B1 M1 A1 c M1 ; 0 A1 Correct differentiation Piecewise function defined = 1 - e = t = 181.54 hours

8 A random sample of 48 mushrooms is taken from a farm. The diameter x, in centimetres, of each mushroom is measured. The results are summarised by = 300.4 and = 2011.01.

(a) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the diameters of the mushrooms. [3 marks]

(b) Determine a 90% confidence interval for the mean diameter of the mushrooms.

[4 marks]

[3 marks] [3 marks]

(c) Test, at the 10% significance level, the null hypothesis that the mean diameter of the mushrooms is 6.5cm. [6 marks]

(d) Relate the confidence interval obtained in (b) with the result of the test in (c). a = = = 6.258 =
.

[2 marks]

B1
. . .

[5 marks] B1 M1 For 250 For substitution b

P(T 250)

or = 2011.01 = 2.7874 = 1.645

M1

A1

~ N (6.258, .) Since n is sufficiently large,

B1

B1

90% confidence interval = (6.258 1.645

= (5.8616, 6.6544)

. )

M1 A1

c f(t) f(t) = e 0
21 5500

= 1 e = e

H0 : = 6.5 H1 : 6.5 At 10% significance level, = 1.645 Test statistics, z =

..
.

or = - 1.004 or Since - 1.004 > -1.645,

|..|

f(t)

1.004

B1 B1 M1

A1 M1 D1 e x shaped curve in 1st quadr.

Insufficient evidence to reject H0. D1 t Quality curve (intercept labelled and asymptote)

A1

Accept sketch that shows critical region with values. dep for comment in context (Reject : Accept H0.) d

There is 90% confidence that the population mean is within the interval of (5.8616, 6.6544) B1

B1 For explaining 90% or 10%) B1 For stating the interval. TOTAL : 15 Defining E(T) with limits . 1 M1 A1 M1 Subs his limits Integration by parts

d = =

E(T) = e

= [- 0 0] - 0 =

t e t e e

A1

CAO TOTAL : 15