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INDEX

accuracy, 4, 7, 11, 57, 87, 94, 143


Achinstein, Peter, 67
action integral, 1656, 168, 1701, 173
Actor Network Theory, 27
Adams, Henry, 160
Adaptive Community Learning, 133, 135
adequacy, 41
empirical, 69, 203
statistical, 42, 179, 1913, 195, 198,
2024, 207
substantive, 179, 191, 1945, 2024, 207
adequacy-for-purpose, 143
agent-based model (ABM) see model, agent
based
aleatory uncertainty see uncertainty, aleatory
Allais paradox, 164
Allchin, Douglas, 24
Allen, R. G. D., 180
Alzheimers disease, 62, 75
American Meteorological Society Glossary,
148
anachronism, 36
Archimedes, 159
astronomy, 45, 78

biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), 1045


Bloor, David, 256
Bogen, James, 23
Boscovich, Roger Joseph, 5
bounded rationality see rationality, bounded
Bowley, Arthur L., 180
Box, George, 204
BSE (mad cow disease), 61, 73
Bureau International des Poids et Mesures
(BIPM), 84

Copyright

Bacon, Francis, 2
barrage (to build), 978, 101, 108, 11415
see also Oosterschelde estuary
Bayes, Thomas, 5
Bayesian approach, 23, 41, 70, 13940, 142,
145, 147, 149, 1534, 187
Beck, M. Bruce, 11, 137, 140, 161
Beeckman, Isaac, 18
Ben-Haim, Yakov, 12
Bentley, Richard, 47
Bernoulli, Nicholas, 205
Bessel, Friedrich, 5

calibration, 11, 76, 80, 906, 98, 102, 104,


126
see also model calibration
calibration hierarchy (traceability chain),
91, 95
carbon dioxide (CO2), 155
Cato Institute, 113
causal mechanism, 178
central limit theorem (CLT), 3, 6, 181
ceteris paribus clause, 178, 195, 203
consistency
logical, 15960
statistical, 1834, 203
Chalmers, A. F., 24
Chang, Hasok, 30, 356
Chiaramonti, 35
climate change, 110, 113, 11819, 122, 124,
134, 137, 139, 1413, 152, 1545
climate policy, 11, 141, 155
climate science, 10, 100, 113, 13842, 144,
149, 153, 155
cognitive psychology, 37
Comit International des Poids et Mesures
(CIPM), 84
competition under uncertainty, 171
constructivist standpoint/constructivism, 27

243

244

Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice

context of discovery/justification, 14, 20,


2930
Coypel, Antoine, 1
Cotes, Roger, 446
CPT invariance, 51
CreutzfeldtJakob disease, 61, 73
Crichton, Michael, 122
cultural theory, 99, 114, 116, 11819
see also theory of plural rationalities
Dahls pluralist democracy, 113, 133, 135
data-generating mechanism (DGM), 64,
182, 195, 204
dAlembert, Jean, 1
de Morgan, Augustus, 1
decision-maker, 11, 13742, 1468, 152,
1545, 1614, 169
decision-making, 37, 98, 106, 119, 134,
1379, 140, 145, 148, 1512, 1545,
161, 164, 170
decision-making under contradictory certainties (DMUCC), 11517, 133
decision-making under uncertainty
(DMUU), 11415, 133, 164
decision theory, 70, 158, 161, 163, 16970
see also info-gap theory
deep uncertainty see uncertainty, deep
degree of belief, 5, 9, 23
deliberative problem solving (DPS), 99,
10912, 117
demarcation, 24, 28, 334, 36
Derrida, Jacques, 12
Descartes, Ren, 18
diachronic historiography, 16, 337
Diderot, Denis, 1
Dirac, Paul, 1645, 167
Douglas, Mary, 119
Duhem problem, 24, 192

empirical component of measurement see


measurement, empirical component
Encyclopdie, 1
environmental science, 10, 98, 100, 113,
118, 120
epistemic error see error, epistemic
epistemic indeterminism see indeterminism,
epistemic
epistemic possibility, 42, 53
equation of motion, 165, 168, 174
error
arguments from, 23, 63, 71, 756
as failure, 1314, 16, 258, 314, 367
as false belief, 15
as obstacle (impediment), 1314, 1617,
19, 212, 25, 2731, 337
canonical, 23, 59
distribution, 56
epistemic, 1, 102
experimental, 5, 78, 53, 91
measurement, 3, 8, 10, 81, 87, 956, 195
observational, 35, 8, 10, 59
plus-or-minus sign (interval), 6, 9, 97
probing, 25, 48, 5960, 66, 712, 195
prospective, 1516, 278, 301, 335
random, 79, 85
retrospective, 1516, 28, 30, 33, 35
source of, 5, 7, 1012, 28
systematic, 7, 59, 85, 195
theoretical, 11, 15, 39, 41, 50
type I, type II, 66, 85, 187, 191, 199
error analysis, 710, 50
Error Approach in metrology, 79, 82, 96
error control, 24, 59
error-driven process, 103, 107, 125, 129
error measurement, 8
error probability, 23, 5960, 180, 1857,
1901, 193, 202, 206
error scenario, 40, 428, 54
error statistical approach, 16, 22, 31, 48, 59,
67, 180, 191, 198, 207
error statistics, 1912, 1945, 204
error theory see theory of error
European Union (EU), 108
evaluation of uncertainty, Type A and Type
B, 9, 856
evidential component of measurement see
measurement, evidential component

Copyright
econometrics, 10, 1879, 195, 200, 202
economics, 6, 100, 16970, 17780, 187,
193, 197, 202, 207
evolutionary, 167
Edgeworth, Francis Ysidro, 8
Einstein, Albert, 2, 29, 32, 48
Einstein equivalence principle (EEP), 504
Ellsberg paradox, 164
Emanuel, Kerry, 122

Index

245

evolutionary epistemology, 20, 37


experimental design, 2, 3, 60, 64, 70, 723,
193
experimental knowledge, 11, 24, 39, 50, 52,
54, 589, 63, 67, 6971, 75, 77
experimental physics, 10, 54
experimental triad, 65, 68, 75
expert judgement, 11, 95, 1234, 132,
1412, 150
exponential law of errors, 6
extended peer review, 113, 11718, 120,
124, 128

history of science, 11, 13, 17, 1920, 347, 70


see also Whig history
internal/external, 14, 20, 26, 37
HIV/AIDS, 174
Holling, Crawford Stanley, 133
Hon, Giora, 1920, 31
Hoskins Review, 147, 149
HughesDrever experiment, 51
Huygens, Constantijn, 46
hypothesis testing, 23, 47, 49, 60, 66, 180,
185
see also error, type I and type II

fallacy of rejection, 189, 191, 200


falsification, method of, 20, 223, 67
Fechner, Gustav, 5
Feynman, Richard, 1656, 169, 173
Fisher, Ronald A., 17980, 200
FisherNeymanPearson (FNP)
approach, 1801, 1902, 204, 207
foresight, 99, 1057, 114, 117, 122, 128,
130
foresight scandal, 123
frequentist statistics, 59, 17982, 187, 192,
204, 207
Funtowicz, Silvio O., 99, 11113, 11617,
119

ignorance, 12, 98, 115, 130, 135, 141, 155,


159, 161, 163, 168, 174
indeterminism, 23, 1578, 175
epistemic, 158, 161, 16771, 174
human see epistemic
natural see ontological
ontological, 1578, 161, 1658, 170,
1734
quantum, 158, 166
ShacklePopper, 167, 174
indication, instrument, 87, 8996
industrial engineering, 10
inferential component of measurement see
measurement, inferential component
info-gap, 161
info-gap model of uncertainty, 1613, 170,
172
info-gap robust-satisficing, 158, 163, 168,
1702
info-gap theory, 12, 1578, 1612, 170
information, 9, 23, 29, 42, 61, 68, 79, 812,
848, 904, 96, 112, 11920, 13940,
143, 145, 147, 152, 154, 169, 171,
177, 206
statistical, 179, 181, 189, 191, 1934,
196, 207
substantive, 179, 182, 189, 1912, 196,
207
innovation dilemma, 173
instrumentalist standpoint/instrumentalism,
7982, 84, 94, 103
InterAcademy Council, 139
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), 111, 113, 121, 123, 1389,
1423, 145, 148

Copyright

Gajdusek, D. Carleton, 62
Galilei, Galileo, 25, 18
Galton, Francis, 6
Gauss, Carl Friedrich, 3
general relativity, 40, 489, 58, 60, 1467,
160
Gigerenzer, Gerd, 37
Giordani, Alessandro, 11, 102, 103, 127
going amiss, 35
Good, Irving John, 9, 142, 145
Gray, William, 122
Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in
Measurement (GUM), 9, 80, 847

Habermas, Jrgen, 167


Hacking, Ian, 24, 39, 57, 71
Harper, William, 456, 48
Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 37
historiography of science, 11, 13, 1517, 20,
278, 314, 367

246

Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice

International Water Association (IWA), 108


intrinsic uncertainty see uncertainty, definitional
Jasanoff, Sheila, 99, 11214, 117, 119
Jeffreys, Harold, 6
Kant, Immanuel, 2
Karstens, Bart, 11
Kepler, Johannes
law, 44, 46, 204
orbits, 46
Keynes, John Maynard, 167, 1789, 192,
203
Knight, Frank, 161, 170
Koyr, Alexandre, 16, 1820, 22
Kuhn, Thomas, 30, 37, 63, 111, 112
kuru, 614, 72
Lagrangian, 1657, 171, 1735
Lakatos, Imre, 1921, 63, 67
Lambert, Johann Heinrich, 5
Laplace, Pierre-Simon, 3, 46
Latour, Bruno, 27
Laudan, Larry, 19, 212, 25, 36
law of large numbers (LLN), 181, 184
strong (SLLN), 181
law of physics/nature, 18, 44, 48, 52, 98,
105, 110, 126, 1578, 1659, 174, 204
see also Newtons law of gravity
learning from data, 12, 1779, 1812, 184,
188, 194, 2024, 2067
learning from error, 11, 22, 24, 66, 68, 723
least-action principle see principle of least
action
least squares, 3
legal considerations/process/scrutiny, 100,
109, 112, 11617, 120, 130, 132
Legendre, Adrien-Marie, 3
life cycle of a policy, 99, 1301, 133
Light Brown Apple Moth (LBAM), 1712
Lippmann, Gabriel, 6
Lorentz invariance, 501

Mayo, Deborah G., 11, 16, 19, 225, 301,


34, 48, 53, 160, 180
measurand, 89, 802, 847, 8992, 946
measurement, 3, 69, 11, 44, 46, 7996,
1035, 143
empirical component, 889, 91
evidential component, 8890
inferential component, 889, 91
model-based, 11
precision, 41, 512, 94
measurement error see error, measurement
measurement science, 911, 81
see also metrology
measurement uncertainty, 9, 81, 837, 96
measuring instrument, 7980, 83, 8694,
96, 1024
metrological characterization, 80, 93
medical diagnosis, 153
Merton, Robert K., 25
methodology of scientific research programmes, 201
metrological characterization of measuring
instrument see measuring instrument,
metrological characterization
metrology, 7, 9, 84
Michaels, Patrick, 113
MichelsonMorley experiment, 49
Mill, John Stuart, 1789, 192
Mills, F. C., 180
misspecification, statistical, 1879, 191,
2024
model, 29, 823, 946, 98101, 1037,
109, 113, 116, 118, 1203, 1257,
12930, 1345, 141, 143
agent-based, 100
climate, 13746, 14853, 155
computational, 104, 108, 113, 11822,
127, 133, 135
decision-maker, 1613
economic, 100, 127
statistical, 1802, 184, 1927, 2034, 207
simulation, 125
substantive, 195, 197, 204, 207
model calibration, 95, 98, 1013, 105, 110,
125, 128
model evaluation, 101, 107, 1245, 130
model identification, 101, 103, 104, 107,
110, 116, 122, 1256, 129

Copyright
Mach, Ernst, 145
March, Jim, 160
Margenau, Henry, 6, 10
Mari, Luca, 11, 102, 103, 127

Index
model fidelity, 1312
model organism (yeast), 73, 76
model parameter estimation, 101
model relevance, 1312
model structure error and uncertainty
(MSEU), 102, 107, 126
model structure identification, 1014, 107,
110, 116, 122, 125, 129
model transparency, 1312, 135
model trustworthiness, 99, 101, 107, 110,
1179, 1301
model validation, 101, 107, 198
see also model evaluation
model validity, 99, 120, 202
model verification, 101
model-based assessment, 12
modeller, 101, 10910, 112, 11926, 129,
1446, 149, 154
Mona Lisa, 70
Moores Principle, 523
Morgan, Mary S., 100, 103, 127
Morgenstern, Oskar, 6
Musgrave, Alan, 67, 69

247

omitted variables, 195, 203


Oosterschelde estuary, 11415, 121
opportune windfalling, 162, 170
opportuneness, 1623
optimization, 1689, 170, 174
optimization paradigm, 1689
order and chaos, 157
paradigm shift, 30, 114
parametrized post-Newtonian framework
(PPN), 4851, 534
Parker, Wendy, 143
Pasteur, Louis, 27
Pearson, Karl, 1801
pedigree matrix see research-pedigree matrix
Peirce, Charles S., 52, 66
personal bias, 9, 86
personal equation, 5
Petersen, Arthur C., 11, 989, 102, 111,
1223, 125, 134
philosophy of science, 11, 19, 245, 301,
39, 53, 55, 79, 82
Poincar, Henri, 6
political arithmetic, 177
Popper, Karl, 1920, 224, 30, 67, 107, 160,
167
invalidation, 107
post-normal science (PNS), 117, 122
posthumanism, 27
Pound, James, 46
precautionary principle, 108, 117
precision, 512, 94, 139, 185, 188
see also measurement, precision
Pre-Eminence of Theory (PET), 179, 1878,
190, 202
preference reversal, 164, 172
principle of least action, 1657, 16970, 173
principle of symmetry see symmetry,
principle of
probability, 6, 9
error see error probability
model-based, 140, 153, 1556
subjective, 5, 9, 138, 142, 160
probability density function (PDF), 138
probability theory, 5, 8
prospective error see error, prospective
Prusiner, Stanley, 62, 75

Copyright

National Institute for Public Health and the


Environment (RIVM), 1223
National Physical Laboratory, 6, 8
National Research Council (NRC), 98, 107,
110, 126, 1301
nature, 2, 10, 53, 171, 1745
Nelson, Richard R., 167
Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency (PBL), 108, 113
New Experimentalism, 24, 37, 39
Newton, Isaac, 2, 40, 448, 52, 204
Newtons law of gravity, 44, 47, 1467
Neyman, Jerzy, 180
Neyman and Pearson, statistical approach,
23, 412, 17980, 1989
normal distribution/law, 3, 6
see also exponential law of errors
normal science (Kuhn), 25, 30, 63, 11112,
117
objectivity, 3, 9, 26, 667, 109, 112, 123,
203
Office of Management and Budget (OMB),
US White House, 112

248

Error and Uncertainty in Scientific Practice

quantum mechanics, 74, 157, 160, 1657,


170, 1734
quasi-experiment, 66
Quetelet, Adolphe, 5
rational reconstruction, 201, 70
rationality, 1314, 202, 256, 28, 34,
367
as heuristics, 1314, 21, 30, 357
bounded, 169, 171
Ravetz, Jerome R., 99, 11113, 11617, 119
realist standpoint/realism, 14, 69, 7982,
84, 94, 103, 174
reference value, 11, 87, 91, 94, 104
regulatory science, 112, 114, 117
relevant dominant uncertainty see uncertainty, relevant dominant
reliability, 911, 23, 25, 30, 102, 111, 125,
134, 137, 140, 142, 152, 164, 180, 185,
188, 1914, 199, 2023
methodological, 11, 137, 1424, 147,
149, 155
public, 137, 139, 142, 1445, 155
statistical, 137, 1424, 155
research science, 112, 114, 117
research-pedigree matrix, 99, 111, 113, 117
retrospective error see error, retrospective
Ricardo, David, 1789, 187
risk (Knight), 161, 170
risk management, 141
Robbins, Lionel, 179
robustness, 40, 43, 54, 68, 154, 1624, 170,
1725
Rosetta Stone, 174
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
(KNMI), 155
Royal Society, 110, 151

sciencepolicy interface, 11, 989, 101,


1034, 106, 1089, 113, 117, 119, 126,
128, 131, 134, 140
secure evidence framework, 40
securing of evidence, 40, 42, 200
security of a proposition, 43
sensitivity analysis, 978, 143
regionalized, 106
severity reasoning, 194, 2046
ShacklePopper indeterminism see indeterminism, ShacklePopper
Shapiro, Irwin, 50
Simon, Herbert, 169
Simpson, Thomas, 5
simulation study, 11, 59, 68, 100, 122,
1378, 141, 14352, 1545
Sivia, D. S., 145, 147
Smith, Leonard A., 11, 989, 102, 111, 123,
125, 134
Smith, Pamela H., 27
social statistics see statistics, social
sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), 22,
258
sound science analysis (SSA), 99, 10912,
114, 117
Spanos, Aris, 12
stability, 94, 169
problem of, 40, 48
Staley, Kent W., 11
standard, 11, 678, 76, 86, 91, 945
standard model (SM), 51
Statistical Society of London, 178
statistical uncertainty see uncertainty,
statistical
statistics, 8, 10, 12, 66, 17780
social, 6, 12
Stein, H., 45
Steinle, Friedrich, 31
Stigler, Stephen M., 8
Stirling, A.,154
strengthening strategy, 40, 43, 45, 54
structural change, 99, 106, 12930
subjective probability see probability, subjective
Suppes, Patrick, 1923
Surface Waters Acidification Programme
(SWAP), 121
symmetry, principle of, 22, 26, 32, 34

Copyright
Salmon, Wesley, 70
Sargent, R., 32
Sarton, George, 1619
satisficing, 158, 16975
Savage, Leonard, 160
scenario uncertainty see uncertainty, scenario
Schikore, Jutta, 19, 26, 31
Schrdingers equation, 165, 169, 173
science-based policy, 11, 138, 155

Index
Tees
barrage, 97, 108, 11415
estuary, 104
river, 97, 101
Thatcher, Margaret, 97
theory of error, 110, 1315, 20, 22, 31, 34,
37, 81
theory of plural rationalities, 99, 116, 118
see also cultural theory
theory ladenness, 24, 28, 58, 63
Tinbergen, Jan, 178
tipping point, 129
TransAtlantic Uncertainty Colloquium
(TAUC), 108, 122, 124
true value, 5, 89, 11, 807, 902, 945,
103, 182, 185
truth, 10, 1314, 16, 18, 21, 256, 37, 41,
7980, 823, 85, 87, 90, 92, 95, 103,
107, 11516, 134
truth-generating machine, 100, 10910, 130
trustworthiness of a model see model trustworthiness

249

true, 161, 170


Type A, Type B see evaluation of uncertainty, Type A and Type B
Uncertainty and Precaution in Environmental Management (UPEM), 108, 118
Uncertainty Approach in metrology, 79,
82, 96
uncertainty communication, 137, 139
uncertainty evaluation see evaluation of
uncertainty
uncertainty measurement, 710
Uncertainty Monster, 118
UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09),
123, 13940, 1457, 14954
UK House of Lords, 97
UK Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC),
1512
UK Royal Society, 110, 151
US Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA), 67, 108, 114, 118
US National Research Council (NRC), 98,
107, 126, 1301
US National Science Foundation (NSF),
108, 110
unknown, 12, 58, 923, 112, 127, 143, 147,
15762, 167
acknowledged 102, 106, 110, 115, 117,
127
Rumsfeldian, 102, 115
untrustworthy evidence, 1878, 2034, 207

Copyright

unbiasedness, 182
uncertainty
aleatory, 102
deep, 98100, 1023, 1056, 116, 119,
122, 1259, 131, 1335, 137, 1401,
1523, 156, 161
definitional, 857, 96
degree of, 114
epistemic, 33, 139, 141
measurement, 9, 81, 837, 96
ontic, 141
random, 8
relevant dominant (RDU), 11, 123,
13740, 145, 1478, 154
scenario, 115, 141
severe, 1613, 170
source of, 85, 96
statistical, 115, 137, 1423
systematic, 8
theoretical, 43

validity of a model see model validity


Wald, Abraham, 161
water pollution, 104, 108, 118
weakening strategy, 40, 43, 467, 54
weather forecast, 105, 143, 151, 153, 155
weather state, 148
Weber, Max, 32
Whig history, 16, 19, 31, 35
Will, Clifford, 4853
Wimsatt, William C., 29
Winter, Sidney, 167
Woodward, James, 23

Copyright