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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2013

Arkansas Poll: Voters Express Record Levels of


Pessimism About the Future
Arkansans continue trend toward Republican-leaning Independents
Follow the University of Arkansas on Twitter @uarkansas
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. The 15th annual Arkansas Poll, conducted during the federal
shutdown, found residents of the state dramatically more pessimistic about the future while
continuing the trend toward identifying as Republican-leaning Independents. The economy
continues to be identified as the most important problem facing Arkansans. The poll was
conducted from Oct. 10-17.
When asked about life in Arkansas, only 63 percent of respondents agreed that Arkansas is
generally headed in the right direction, 10 points lower than last year. The only time confidence
levels have polled this low was in 2003, when the rate was also 63 percent.
A historic record low of 14 percent of people reported being better off financially as
compared to a year ago, down from 23 percent last year. Only 18 percent of respondents
expected their financial situation to be better next year, the lowest level of confidence since this
question was first asked in 1999. An unprecedented 24 percent of respondents expect finances to
be worse, up from 13 percent last year, and well above the most pessimistic past response of 20
percent in 2010.
Its impossible to say for certain what has caused such pessimism among Arkansans, poll
director Janine Parry said. Given theres really nothing dramatically different from last year in
the broader environment, the recent federal government shutdown seems like the obvious
culprit.
When it came to the federal shutdown, which began October 1 and ended Oct. 17, Arkansans
blamed the president and his party. A full 37 percent of respondents and 39 percent of likely
Page 1 of 4
110 Davis Hall Fayetteville, AR 72701 479-575-5555 FAX 479-575-4745 http://newswire.uark.edu

voters blamed President Obama and the Democrats for the shutdown. Only 26 percent of
respondents and 27 percent of likely voters blamed the Republicans in Congress.
When respondents considered the performance of their elected officials in Washington, D.C.,
all lawmakers saw drops in approval ratings. John Boozman received his lowest approval ratings
yet, 34 percent of likely voters, down from 45 percent last year. Moreover, his disapproval rating
jumped to 29 percent of likely voters from 18 percent last year.
Only 34 percent of likely voters approved of Mark Pryors performance, down from 53
percent last year. His disapproval ratings were also dramatically higher, with 44 percent of likely
voters disapproving of his performance, up from 21 percent last year.
In contrast, both current senators are polling well below the Arkansas Poll numbers for
former Sen. Blanche Lincoln during her last year of office. She was voted out of office in 2010.
At her lowest in 2009, 43 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of her performance.
Once again, Arkansans gave low ratings to President Barack Obama, with 29 percent of
likely voters approving and 66 percent disapproving of his performance.
While Gov. Mike Beebes approval rating declined from 72 percent to 68 percent of likely
voters, an increase in his disapproval rating was not statistically significant.
The 2014 elections were too close to call, although likely voters were more likely to choose
someone from the Republican Party in elections for the U.S. House of Representatives or state
legislature for which no candidates were specified. Looking forward to the 2016 presidential
election, the poll asked a speculative question that showed 44 percent of likely voters choosing
Hillary Clinton over a Republican nominee, with 42 percent choosing the Republican.
The poll results show Arkansans leaning right. There was no significant change in the
percentage of likely voters who identify themselves as Democrats 30 percent in 2012 and 31
percent in 2013 or liberal 12 percent in 2012 and 14 percent in 2013. A slight decline in the
percentage of Republicans 32 percent in 2012 to 27 percent in 2013 was matched by an
increase in self-identified Independents 32 percent in 2012 up to 36 percent in 2013. Of the
Independents, 51 percent of likely voters lean Republican versus 22 percent who lean
Democratic.
Parry said, The question is does the rightward shift in Arkansas voters solidify to continue
beyond this particular president, who continues to be peculiarly unpopular here, or can the
Democrats white-knuckle it to 2016 and win back at least some of the brand loyalty they enjoyed
for more than 100 years? Or is Republican ascendance permanent?

Page 2 of 4

Once again, the poll surveyed Arkansans about attitudes toward gay couples. By and large
results were similar to previous years with less than a quarter of Arkansans supporting marriage
or civil unions for same-sex couples. When it comes to the statement There should be no legal
recognition of a gay couples relationship, only 46 percent of Arkansans agreed, the first time
the response has dipped below 50 percent. This year the poll asked whether gays and lesbians
should have equal rights in job opportunities, and 81 percent of likely voters agreed that they
should.
For the first time, the poll asked Arkansans about their support for granting in-state tuition to
graduates of Arkansas high schools who are in the country illegally. Just 36 percent of likely
voters approved of that option, and 54 percent disapproved. While 59 percent of Arkansans
support allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria,
that level of support is not a statistically significant change from the 56 percent of last year.
Methodology and Sample Information
The 2013 Arkansas Poll was conducted by Issues & Answers Network. Between Oct. 10 and
17, interviewers completed 800 live telephone interviews among a random sample of adult
Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents were cell phone users.
The surveys margin of error statewide is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, meaning that
researchers are 95 percent confident that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points in
either direction of the result the polls sample produced.
To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team
publishes what most polling organizations do not, a comparison of survey respondents key
demographic characteristics to those of the state as a whole. This information is available on the
poll website. A summary report of the 2013 poll results and data from past Arkansas Polls will
be available at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23, at the Arkansas Poll website.
The 2012 Arkansas Poll was sponsored by the Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and
Society at the University of Arkansas, Todd Shields, director. The poll was designed and
analyzed by Parry, a professor in the department of political science in the J. William Fulbright
College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arkansas. Data is available from current and
past Arkansas Polls.
-30-

CONTACTS:
Janine Parry, professor, political science
Page 3 of 4

J. William Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences


479-575-6439 and 479-409-0968 (cell), parry@uark.edu
Barbara Jaquish, science and research writer
University of Arkansas
479-575-2683, jaquish@uark.edu
Members of the media can subscribe to the Arkansas Newswire weekday email by sending a note to Charlie Alison at calison@uark.edu.

Page 4 of 4

CONTACTS: Janine Parry, Poll Director, 479-575-6439 or 479-409-0968, parry@uark.edu


Barbara Jaquish, Science and Research Communication Officer, 479-575-2683, jaquish@uark.edu

The Arkansas Poll, 2013


Summary Report
Dr. Janine A. Parry
Poll Director, Professor of Political Science
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

Interviews conducted by: Issues & Answers Network, Inc.


Project sponsored by: The Diane D. Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society,
Dean Todd Shields, Director

Arkansas Poll Website: http://plsc.uark.edu/7129.php

Table of Contents
Most Important Problem/Public Figure Approval/Upcoming Elections. p. 2-3
Politics and Elections/Current Issues... p. 3-5
Political Party/Ideology p. 5-6
Life in Arkansas... p. 6
Methodology and Sample Details ......................................................................................... .. p. 7
*Values in parentheses include the very likely voters only; may not total 100 due to rounding.

nt

Most Important Problem


What is the most important problem or issue facing people in
Arkansas today?1
the economy
healthcare
politicians/politics
taxes
education
drugs
other/dont know/refused

2011

2012

2013

47 (48)%
15 (15)%
-6 (5)%
11 (12)%
12 (11)%
5 (4)%

44 (44)%
12 (12)%
7 (8)%
7 (7)%
5 (5)%
3 (2)%
24 (22)%

Approve

Disapprove

DK/Ref

66%
70%
47%
58%
70%
70%
72 (74)%
71 (72)%
66 (68)%

13%
17%
38%
27%
9%
9%
13 (14)%
14 (15)%
17 (17)%

21%
13%
16%
15%
21%
20%
15 (12)%
15 (14)%
18 (14%

51%
55%
55%
50%
43%
40 (44 )%
42 (45)%
30 (34)%

13%
10%
17%
24%
34%
24 (26)%
17 (18)%
28 (29)%

36%
35%
28%
26%
23%
36 (30)%
41 (35)%
42 (37)%

52%
56%
53%
51%
47 (48)%
51 (53)%
33 (34)%

11%
12%
18%
22%
27 (29)%
20 (21)%
41 (44)%

37%
32%
29%
27%
27 (21)%
29 (26)%
26 (23)%

38%
30%
42%
35 (31)%
32 (31)%
34 (31)%
27 (29)%

56%
65%
47%
57 (62)%
60 (64)%
59 (62)%
65 (66)%

7%
6%
10%
9 (7)%
8 (5)%
8 (6)%
8 (5)%

67 (70)%
3 (3)%
-3 (2)%
5 (4)%
3 (3)%
17 (17)%

Public Figure Approval Ratings


Do you approve or disapprove of the way ______________ is
handling his job as governor?
Mike Huckabee 1999
2001
2003
2005
Mike Beebe 2007
2009
2011
2012
2013
Do you approve of __________ as a U.S. Senator?
Blanche Lincoln 2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
John Boozman 2011
2012
2013
Do you Mark Pryor as a U.S. Senator?
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2012
2013
Do you _________________ as president?
George W. Bush 2005
2007
Barack Obama 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1

In odd-numbered years, the Arkansas Poll records and codes the open-ended answers of respondents. In even-numbered years,
respondents are asked to choose from the most frequently mentioned issues of the previous year.
2
Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
2

Politics and Elections


Suppose the election were held today. (M)ore likely to vote for?
R
D
U.S. Senate (Cotton/Pryor/Other) 32 (37)%
34 (36)%
Arkansas Governor (Hutchinson/Ross/Other) 32 (35)%
30 (31)%
U.S. House (generic) 32 (38)%
31 (31)%
State legislative elections (generic) 36 (41)%
33 (33)%
President 2016 (Hillary Clinton or Republican nominee) 44 (42)%
39 (44)%
Who do you blame most for the government shutdown?
President Obama and the Democrats
Republicans in Congress
Both (silent)
Have you been personally affected by the government shutdown?
Yes
No
Dont know/refused

Other/DK/Ref
34 (27)%
38 (34)%
37 (31)%
31 (26)%
17 (14)%
37 (39)%
26 (27)%
37 (34)%
20 (20)%
79 (79)%
2 (1)%

Current Issues
According to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014, most Americans will be required to have
health insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?
Aware
89 (92)%
Not aware
9 (7)%
Dont Know/Refused
1 (1)%
And will you have insurance at that time, or do you think youll choose to pay the fine?
Will have health insurance
88 (92)%
Will pay the fine
5 (4)%
Dont know/Refused
7 (5)%
. How familiar are you with these health insurance exchanges? Would you say youre
Very familiar
12 (12)%
Somewhat familiar
27 (30)%
Not too familiar
26 (26)%
Not at all familiar
31 (29)%
Dont know/Refused
4 (3)%
First, in general, would you say you favor stricter gun
No
DK/
control, less strict gun control, or should no change be
Stricter
Less Strict
Change
Refused
made to existing gun control laws?
2000
39%
15%
42%
4%
2002
36%
15%
45%
4%
2004
38%
12%
45%
5%
2006
37%
11%
47%
5%
2008
29%
13%
54%
4%
2009
24%
20%
52%
4%
2013 33 (33)%
15 (15)%
47 (48)%
6 (4)%
Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for
a woman to get an abortion, favor laws that would make
More
No
DK/
it easier to get an abortion or should no change be made
Difficult
Easier
Change
Refused
to existing abortion laws?
1999
45%
14%
32%
9%
2001
46%
13%
35%
7%
2003
47%
13%
33%
7%
2005
44%
9%
39%
8%
2007
41%
13%
36%
9%
2009
43%
11%
38%
8%
2013 44 (44)%
11 (11)%
34 (35)%
11 (10)%
3

Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding relationships
between two people of the same sex?3
Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
2005
15%
2007
16%
2009
18%
2011 23 (22)%
2013 23 (24)%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic partnerships, but not marry
2005
22%
2007
27%
2009
22%
2011 20 (22)%
2013 21 (23)%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couples relationship
2005
54%
2007
51%
2009
54%
2011 50 (51)%
2013 46 (46)%
dont know/refused
2005
9%
2007
6%
2009
6%
2011
7 (6)%
2013
9 (7)%
And which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding undocumented
immigrants currently residing in the United States. Should the government:
allow them to remain in the United States to work for a limited amount of time?
2009
9%
2011
8 (8)%
2013
9 (9)%
allow them to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain criteria like learning English and
paying their back-taxes?
2009
57%
2011 56 (57)%
2013 59 (59)%
deport all?
2009
27%
2011 27 (28)%
2012 26 (25)%
2013 21 (21)%
allow them to become permanent residents with no requirements?
2009
2%
2011
3 (2)%
2013
2 (2)%
dont know/refused
2009
5%
2011
6 (6)%
2013
9 (8)%
3

Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
4

Do you approve of individuals who graduate from an AR high


school but are in the U.S. illegally having access to in-state tuition
?
2013
(D)o you think gays and lesbians should have equal rights in terms
of job opportunities?
2013

Approve

Disapprove

DK/Refused

35 (36)%
Should

52 (54)%

13 (10)%

Shouldnt

DK/Refused

78 (81)%

12 (11)%

9 (9)%

Political Party and Ideology


Generally speaking, do you usually
think of yourself as a Republican, a
Democrat, an Independent, or what?
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Independents only: Do you think of
yourself ?
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Do you think of yourself as ?
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
4

Republican
23%
23 (25)%
27%
28 (30)%
24%
30 (32)%
23%
23 (25)%
24%
24 (27)%
24%
21 (25)%
26 (29)%
29 (32)%
24 (27)%
Closer to
Republican
33%
35 (39)%
29%
30 (31)%
33%
39 (41)%
30%
33 (35)%
34%
35 (38)%
39%
44 (50)%
42 (48)%
41 (46)%
43 (51)%
Liberal
14%
16%
17%
15%
17%

Democrat
35%
36 (38)%
33%
33 (35)%
38%
35 (36)%
36%
36 (37)%
39%
35 (34)%
33%
28 (27)%
31 (33)%
31 (30)%
30 (31)%
Closer to
Democrat
29%
25 (26)%
36%
32 (34)%
34%
31 (32)%
35%
34 (34)%
37%
30 (29)%
32%
21 (16)%
29 (28 )%
26 (22)%
21 (22)%
Moderate
38%
36%
39%
39%
36%

Indept
31%
35 (34)%
32%
33 (31)%
31%
28 (27)%
33%
33 (33)%
30%
33 (33)%
34%
42 (41)%
34 (31)%
33 (32)%
37 (36)%
Just Indept

Other
4%
0%
5%
3 (2)%
4%
3 (3)%
4%
3 (3)%
3%
7 (5)%
7%
7 (6)%
6 (5)%
3 (3)%
4 (3)%

34%
35 (30)%
31%
33 (33)%
33%
30 (26)%
32%
30 (23)%
29%
33 (31)%
27%
33 (33)%
26 (22 )%
28 (27)%
31 (22)%
Conserve
38%
39%
38%
41%
39%

DK/
Refused4
7%
6 (2)%
3%
3 (2)%
3%
4 (2)%
4%
4 (3)%
2%
2 (1)%
3%
3 (1)%
4 (2)%
4 (3)%
5 (3)%
DK/
Refused
4%
5 (2)%
4%
4 (3)%
2%
0 (1)%
4%
2 (3)%
1%
3 (3)%
2%
2 (2)%
3 (2)%
6 (5)%
6 (6)%
DK/Ref
10%
9%
6%
5%
7%

Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
5

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

17%
13%
16%
16%
14%
14%
14 (12)%
16 (16)%
13 (12)%
14 (14)%

35%
40%
39%
37%
35%
37%
35 (36)%
34 (34)%
32 (32)%
31 (31)%

42%
39%
39%
39%
43%
42%
44 (48)%
45 (47)%
46 (51)%
44 (48)%

7%
8%
7%
6%
8%
7%
8 (4)%
5 (3)%
9 (6)%
11 (7)%

Life in Arkansas
Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in
the right direction or the wrong direction?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Would you say you are better off financially, worse off,
or about the same compared to a year ago?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
And, looking ahead, do you think a year from now, you
will be as now?
2003
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Right

Wrong

63%
73%
69%
71%
72%
67 (68)%
74 (76)%
73 (74)%
63 (66)%
Better

26%
18%
21%
19%
16%
22 (21)%
20 (19)%
17 (17)%
20 (20)%
About the
Same
45%
49%
48%
38%
46%
46 (47)%
49 (49)%
49 (50)%
58 (58)%
About the
Same
49%
46%
45%
39%
48%
46 (45)%
52 (56)%
48 (46)%
47 (49)%

27%
28%
30%
20%
22%
19 (18)%
19 (19)%
23 (24)%
14 (14)%
Better
35%
34%
38%
35%
32%
28 (25)%
25 (21)%
26 (27)%
18 (18)%

Worse

28%
22%
20%
41%
31%
34 (35)%
31 (32)%
27 (26)%
26 (26)%
Worse
12%
15%
12%
18%
17%
20 (23)%
18 (20)%
13 (13)%
24 (25)%

DK/
Refused5
11%
9%
8%
10%
12%
11 (11)%
7 (6)%
10 (9)%
16 (14)%
DK/
Refused
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1 (0)%
1 (1)%
0 (1)%
2 (1)%
DK/
Refused
5%
5%
3%
8%
4%
7 (7)%
4 (4)%
13 (14)%
11 (8)%

Values in parentheses include very likely voters only; percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
6

Methodology and Sample Information

Between October 10th and October 17th Issues & Answers Network, Inc. completed 800 telephone surveys
among a random sample of adult Arkansans. Twenty percent of all respondents interviewed (n=160) use
their cell phones for all or most of their calls.
The surveys margin of error statewide is +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning that we are 95 percent confident
that the actual result lies within 3.5 percentage points (in either direction) of the result our sample produced.
Employing guidelines established by the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the polls
overall cooperation rate was 27% (29% for landline calls and 22% for cell phone calls). This figure reflects
completed surveys as a percentage of all eligible individuals contacted.
To assess the representativeness of the sample drawn for the poll, the Arkansas Poll team publishes what
most polling organizations do not: a comparison of survey respondents key demographic characteristics to
those of the state as a whole. This information is reported in the table below.
2013 Arkansas Poll
Sample
55-64
58%

State of Arkansas

Average Age Category (for 18+ pop.)


45-54
Married
51%
Gender
Male 40%
49%
Female 60%
51%
Educational Attainment
High school graduates 88%
84%
College graduates 35%
19%
Median Household Income
$38,307
$35,001-$50,000
Race/Ethnicity
White 83%
77%
Black or African American 9%
15%
Multi-Ethnic 1%
2%
Hispanic 1%
6%*
Native American 2%
1%
Asian 1%
1%
Something Else, Dont Know,
8%
Refused
Sources: The 2013 Arkansas Poll, 2011 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census.
*Hispanics may be of any race, so these respondents also are included in applicable race categories.

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)

Q1
I would first like to ask you how many years you have lived in Arkansas, or have you lived
here all of your life?
Gave number of years ........................................................................... 01 (enter number of years)
Less than one year ................................................................................. 96
All my life ............................................................................................. 97
Don't know ............................................................................................ 98
Refused .................................................................................................. 99
Do not currently live in Arkansas ........................................................ 90 [TERMINATE]
Q49
(RECORD GENDER BY OBSERVATION. IF UNSURE, ASK: And, I am required to ask
you this, are you male or female?) (DO NOT READ LIST)
Male ......................................................................................................... 1
Female ..................................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [TERMINATE]
Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [TERMINATE]

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q2
In what county do you live? (DO NOT READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
Don't know .................................. 98
Refused ........................................ 99
Arkansas ...................................... 01
Ashley.......................................... 47
Baxter .......................................... 02
Benton ......................................... 35
Boone .......................................... 36
Bradley ........................................ 48
Calhoun ....................................... 49
Carroll.......................................... 37
Chicot .......................................... 50
Clark ............................................ 51
Clay ............................................. 03
Cleburne ...................................... 04
Cleveland ..................................... 52
Columbia ..................................... 53
Conway........................................ 27
Craighead .................................... 05
Crawford...................................... 38
Crittenden .................................... 06
Cross ............................................ 07
Dallas ........................................... 54
Desha ........................................... 55
Drew ............................................ 56
Faulkner ....................................... 28
Franklin ....................................... 39
Fulton .......................................... 08
Garland ........................................ 57
Grant ............................................ 58
Greene ......................................... 09
Hempstead ................................... 59
Hot Springs .................................. 60
Howard ........................................ 61

Independent ................................ 10
Izard ............................................ 11
Jackson........................................ 12
Jefferson...................................... 62
Johnson ....................................... 40
Lafayette ..................................... 63
Lawrence .................................... 13
Lee .............................................. 14
Lincoln ........................................ 64
Little River .................................. 65
Logan .......................................... 66
Lonoke ........................................ 15
Madison ...................................... 41
Marion ........................................ 42
Miller .......................................... 67
Mississippi .................................. 16
Monroe........................................ 17
Montgomery ............................... 68
Nevada ........................................ 69
Newton........................................ 43
Ouachita ...................................... 70
Perry............................................ 29
Philips ......................................... 18
Pike ............................................. 71
Poinsett ....................................... 19
Polk ............................................. 72
Pope ............................................ 44
Prairie.......................................... 20
Pulaski ........................................ 30
Randolph ..................................... 21
Saline .......................................... 31
Scott ............................................ 73
Searcy ......................................... 23
Sebastian ..................................... 45
Sevier .......................................... 74
Sharp ........................................... 24
St. Francis ................................... 22
Stone ........................................... 25
Union .......................................... 75
Van Buren ................................... 32
Washington ................................. 46
White .......................................... 33
Woodruff .................................... 26
Yell ............................................. 34

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q3

In your opinion, what do you think is the most important problem or issue facing
people in Arkansas today? (DO NOT READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
The economy/Jobs/Unemployment/Poverty .............................. 01
Education ..................................................................................... 02
Healthcare/Health insurance/Access to doctors/Costs. .............. 03
Drugs ........................................................................................... 04
Taxes/Big Government ........................................................... 05
Immigration ................................................................................. 06
Budget/Deficit/Debt .................................................................... 10
Crime .......................................................................................... 11
Morality/Family breakdown/Religion (God/Bible, etc.) ............ 12
Politicians/Politics ....................................................................... 13
Racism ......................................................................................... 14
Roads ........................................................................................... 15
War/Afghanistan/Iraq/Terrorism ................................................. 16
Environment/Climate change/Global warming ........................... 17
Fuel/Energy/Gas prices ............................................................... 18
Other (specify)............................................................................. 19
Don't know .................................................................................. 88
Refused ........................................................................................ 99
COMM1
Thank you. Let's move on to your thoughts on some of the people who are involved in
government and politics. [ROTATE Q4-Q7]
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Beebe is handling his job as governor? (DO
NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q5
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
(DO NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q6
Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Boozman is handling his job as U.S.
Senator? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q7
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Pryor is handling his job as U.S. Senator?
(DO NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q50A
Thank you. Now let's look ahead to the elections of 2014. Lets start with the race for the
U.S. Senate. At this point, are you likely to vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF
CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
Tom Cotton, the Republican ................................................................... 1
Mark Pryor, the Democrat ....................................................................... 2
Another candidate (specify) .................................................................... 3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q51]
[SKIP TO Q51]
[CONTINUE TO Q50B]
[SKIP TO Q51]
[SKIP TO Q51]
Q50B

For whom do you plan to vote? [OPEN-END]


Q51
And what about the race for Arkansas Governor? At this point, are you likely to vote for
[RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
Asa Hutchinson, the Republican ............................................................. 1
Mike Ross, the Democrat ........................................................................ 2
Another candidate ................................................................................... 3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q52]
[SKIP TO Q52]
[CONTINUE TO Q51B]
[SKIP TO Q52]
[SKIP TO Q52]
Q51B

For whom do you plan to vote? [OPEN-END]

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q52
And what about for the U.S. House race in your area? At this point, are you likely to vote
for [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
The Republican candidate ....................................................................... 1
The Democratic candidate ....................................................................... 2
A candidate from another party ............................................................... 3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q53
And what about the STATE legislative races in your community? As of today, would you
say youre likely to vote for(READ LIST, SELECT ONE) [RANDOMIZE ORDER]
The Republican candidates in those state-level races ............................. 1
The Democratic candidates in those state-level races ............................. 2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q54
And, just for fun, what about the presidential race in 2016? If Hillary Clinton were the
Democratic nominee, would you be more likely to vote for her, or for the Republican
nominee? [RANDOMIZE ORDER OF CANDIDATES]
Hillary Clinton......................................................................................... 1
The Republican nominee ......................................................................... 2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
COMM3
Thank you. Next, I have a couple of questions about some issues that are often in the news.
Q12
In general, would you say that you favor stricter gun control, less strict gun control, or
should no change be made to the existing gun control laws? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Stricter ..................................................................................................... 1
Less strict................................................................................................. 2
No change ................................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q13
Do you favor laws that would make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, favor
laws that would make it easier to get an abortion, or should no change be made to existing
abortion laws? (DO NOT READ LIST)
More difficult .......................................................................................... 1
Easier ....................................................................................................... 2
No change ................................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q14
Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be regarding
undocumented immigrants currently residing in the United States. Should the government:
(READ LIST)
Allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the United States to
work for a limited amount of time. ......................................................... 1
Allow undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens if they meet
certain criteria like learning English and paying their back-taxes. ......... 2
Deport all undocumented immigrants ..................................................... 3
Allow undocumented immigrants to become permanent residents
with no requirements. .............................................................................. 4
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
[RANDOMIZE ORDER OF Q15 AND Q55]
Q15
Which of the following policy positions most closely resembles your own view regarding
relationships between two people of the same sex: (READ LIST)
Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. ................................... 1
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions or domestic
partnerships, but not legally marry .......................................................... 2
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship ...... 3
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q55
In general, do you think gays and lesbians should or should not have equal rights in terms
of job opportunities?
Yes, they should have equal rights. ......................................................... 1
No, they should not have equal rights ..................................................... 2
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q18
Some have argued that people who come to Arkansas when they are young and who
graduate from an Arkansas high school, but who are not legally in the United States, should
have access to in-state tuition at the state's public colleges and universities. Do you approve
or disapprove of allowing such individuals to pay in-state tuition, instead of the higher rate
paid by non-Arkansans? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Approve ................................................................................................... 1
Disapprove .............................................................................................. 2
Dont know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q56
According to the Affordable Care Act, starting in January 2014 most Americans will be
required to have health insurance or pay a fine. Were you aware of this before now, or not?
Aware ...................................................................................................... 1
Not aware ................................................................................................ 2
Dont know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q57
And will you have health insurance at that time, or do you think youll choose to pay
the fine? (DO NOT READ LIST. IF RESPONDENT ASKS WHAT THE FINE IS, REFER
TO FAQ SHEET)
Will have health insurance ...................................................................... 1
Will pay the fine ...................................................................................... 2
Dont know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q58
And, as you may have heard, earlier this month, health insurance plans were made available
through the Affordable Care Acts health insurance exchanges. How familiar are you with
these health insurance exchanges? Would you say youre(READ LIST)
Very familiar ........................................................................................... 1
Somewhat familiar .................................................................................. 2
Not too familiar ....................................................................................... 3
Not at all familiar .................................................................................... 4
(DO NOT READ) Dont know ............................................................... 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q59
Who do you blame most for the government shutdown? [RANDOMIZE OPTIONS 1 AND
2] (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
President Obama and the Democrats in Congress .................................. 1
Republicans in Congress ......................................................................... 2
(DO NOT READ) Both........................................................................... 3
Q60
Have you been personally affected by the government shutdown?
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2
(DO NOT READ) Dont know ............................................................... 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
DEMO
Thank you. Next, Ill ask you some questions about yourself so that we can be sure we're
hearing from a wide range of Arkansans.
Q19
First, do you live in a city, a suburb, a small town or a rural area? (INTERVIEWER: If
respondent asks for a definition for one of these, tell them, "whatever it means to you") (DO
NOT READ LIST)
City .......................................................................................................... 1
Suburb ..................................................................................................... 2
Small town............................................................................................... 3
Rural area ................................................................................................ 4
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q20
Which of the following education categories best describes your highest level of schooling?
I have a list here, so feel free to stop me at any time. Is it? (READ LIST, SELECT ONE)
No high school ........................................................................................ 1
Some high school .................................................................................... 2
High school graduate ............................................................................... 3
Some college including business or trade school .................................... 4
College graduate ...................................................................................... 5
Some graduate school.............................................................................. 6
Graduate or professional degree .............................................................. 7
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)

Q21
And, which of the following best describes your racial or ethnic group: (READ LIST,
SELECT ONE)
White ....................................................................................................... 1
Black or African-American ..................................................................... 2
Hispanic ................................................................................................... 3
Asian........................................................................................................ 4
Native American ..................................................................................... 5
Multi-Ethnic ............................................................................................ 6
Something else ........................................................................................ 7
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
COMM6
Thank you. The next questions are about your general evaluation of the quality of life in our
state.
Q31
Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong
direction? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Right ........................................................................................................ 1
Wrong ...................................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q32
On a more individual level, would you say you are better off financially, worse off, or about
the same compared to a year ago? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Better ....................................................................................................... 1
Worse ...................................................................................................... 2
About the same ........................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q33
And, looking ahead, do you think that a year from now, you will be better off financially,
worse off, or about the same as now? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Better ....................................................................................................... 1
Worse ...................................................................................................... 2
About the same ........................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
DEMOb
Thank you. Finally, I'd like to ask you a few more questions about yourself so we can be
sure we're hearing from a wide range of Arkansans.
Q34
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
or what? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Republican ............................................................................................... 1
Democrat ................................................................................................. 2
Independent ............................................................................................. 3
Other ........................................................................................................ 4
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q34B]
[SKIP TO Q34C]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34A

Would you call yourself a strong Republican, or a not very strong Republican? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strong Republican ................................................................................... 1
Not very strong Republican..................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34B

Would you call yourself a strong Democrat, or a not very strong Democrat? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strong Democrat ..................................................................................... 1
Not a very strong Democrat .................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
[SKIP TO Q35]
Q34C

Well, do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Closer to Republican ............................................................................... 1
Closer to Democrat.................................................................................. 2
Just Independent ...................................................................................... 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

10

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q35
How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you think of
yourself as a Liberal, Moderate, or Conservative? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Liberal ..................................................................................................... 1
Moderate.................................................................................................. 2
Conservative ............................................................................................ 3
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q35B]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q35A

Would you say you are strongly Liberal or somewhat Liberal? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Strongly Liberal....................................................................................... 1
Somewhat Liberal ................................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q35B

Would you say that you are strongly Conservative or somewhat Conservative? (DO NOT
READ LIST)
Strongly Conservative ............................................................................. 1
Somewhat Conservative .......................................................................... 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
[SKIP TO Q36]
Q36

Which of the following income categories best describes your total 2013 household
income? I have a list here, feel free to stop me at any time. Was it(READ LIST)
$7,500 or less......................................................................................... 01
$7,501 to $15,000 .................................................................................. 02
$15,001 to $25,000 ................................................................................ 03
$25,001 to $35,000 ................................................................................ 04
$35,001 to $50,000 ................................................................................ 05
$50,001 to $75,000 ................................................................................ 06
$75,001 to $100,000 .............................................................................. 07
$100,001 or over ................................................................................... 08
(DO NOT READ) Don't know .............................................................. 98
(DO NOT READ) Refused ................................................................... 99

11

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q37
Do you have some form of health insurance or health coverage? (DO NOT READ LIST)
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q38
About how often do you attend religious services? Is it.. (READ LIST)
Never ....................................................................................................... 1
Once a year .............................................................................................. 2
Several times a year................................................................................. 3
About once a month ................................................................................ 4
2-3 times a month .................................................................................... 5
Every week .............................................................................................. 6
More than once a week ............................................................................ 7
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q39
Which of the following best describes your current religious preference? Is it(READ
LIST) (INTERVIEWER: Any Christian faith that is not Catholic or Greek Orthodox should
be classified as Protestant. Greek Orthodox is classified as "Other".)
Protestant (Prah-test-ant) ......................................................................... 1
Catholic ................................................................................................... 2
Jewish ...................................................................................................... 3
Something else ........................................................................................ 4
(DO NOT READ) None .......................................................................... 5
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9

[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
[SKIP TO Q41]
Q40

Do you consider yourself a born-again or evangelical Christian? (INTERVIEWER: If the


respondent asks for a definition of either of these terms, tell them, "We want to know how
you feel about yourself. Do you identify with either of these labels?") (DO NOT READ
LIST)
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9

12

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)
Q41
Which of these best describes your present marital status? (READ LIST)
Married .................................................................................................... 1
Not married but living together ............................................................... 2
Separated or divorced .............................................................................. 3
Widowed ................................................................................................. 4
Never married or single ........................................................................... 5
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q42
We're nearly done: How many people, including yourself, live in your household?
(INTERVIEWER: This would include children) (DONT KNOW=98, REFUSED=99)
_______ Enter Number
Q43
Do you have any school aged children? (INTERVIEWER: THIS INCLUDES CHILDREN
IN KINDERGARTEN THROUGH GRADE 12 ONLY) (DO NOT READ LIST)
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2 [SKIP TO Q44]
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8 [SKIP TO Q44]
Refused .................................................................................................... 9 [SKIP TO Q44]
Q43A
How many school aged children do you have? (DONT KNOW=98, REFUSED=99)
_______ Enter Number
Q44
What is your current employment status? Is it(READ LIST, SELECT UP TO TWO
RESPONSES)
Employed full-time ................................................................................. 1
Employed part-time ................................................................................. 2
Self-employed ......................................................................................... 3
Unemployed ............................................................................................ 4
Retired ..................................................................................................... 5
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8 X
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9 X

13

2013 University of Arkansas Poll - Wave 2


I&A Job#15357
(reload of 14652 with changes)

Q46
Are you a registered voter?
Yes ........................................................................................................... 1
No ............................................................................................................ 2
Don't know .............................................................................................. 8
Refused .................................................................................................... 9
Q47
And, how likely are you to vote in the next elections that take place in November 2014?
Are you:
Very Likely ............................................................................................. 1
Likely ...................................................................................................... 2
Unlikely ................................................................................................... 3
Very unlikely ........................................................................................... 4
(DO NOT READ) Don't know ................................................................ 8
(DO NOT READ) Refused ..................................................................... 9
Q48
In what year were you born? (DONT KNOW=9998, REFUSED=9999)
_______ Enter Year
ZIP
[ASK CELL PHONE SAMPLE ONLY]
What is your zip code? (DONT KNOW=99998, REFUSED=99999)
_______ Enter zip code
COMM7
Thank you very much for helping us with the Arkansas Poll. Have a nice
day/afternoon/evening.

14