ESTACION N.

21115100 PALACIO - VEGALARGA (HUI

AO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

49.4
54.29
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
22
29.3
23
42.2
23.12
33
33.12
33.9
42.4
23.12
17.34
42.4
23.12
16.4
21.5
38.4
33.12

40.2
18.8
20
55.33
23.12
17.22
21.5
38.4
50.3
38.4
40.2
20
20.1
18.8
59.5
33
21
23.12
49.4
34
43.2
51.37
22

33.9
40.2
33
20.1
17.2
42.4
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
33.9
33
59.7
23.12
40.2
29.3
20.1
18.8
40.2
85.3
73.9
33.9
22

23
9
29.3
21.5
52.84
59.57
70.46
85.8
73.6
21.5
34
61.25
23
22
33.9
18.8
33
60.54
33.9
17.34
33.12
33.9
26

18.34
23
18.8
20.1
18.8
40.2
22
21.5
70.12
38.4
18.2
18.8
33.9
23.12
23
42.4
23.12
40.2
23
23
24.7
43.2
29.3

22
18.34
60.39
23.12
17.34
85.3
73.6
20
40.2
23.12
22
33.12
23
33
18.34
20.1
18.8
33.9
18.34
18.34
20
14
18.8

33.12
22
33.9
33
20.1
25
23
33
33.9
34
33.12
33.9
18.34
43.8
22
42.4
23.12
23
22
16
33
35.8
55.24

MEDIOS
MAXIMO
MINIMO

31.9
49.4
16.4

34.5
59.5
17.2

36.4
59.7
17.2

39.9
85.8
9

29.9
70.12
18.2

30.7
85.3
14

31.5
43.8
16

CIO - VEGALARGA (HUILA)

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

MAX

53.3
23.12
15.5
21.5
38.4
18.34
22
29.3
23
42.4
23.12
20
22
40.2
33.12
34
51.23
23
22
53.88
29.3
61.6
35

20
22
21.5
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
18.8
18.34
38.4
23
33
80.2
73.6
42.4
23.12
16.3
21.5
38.4
33.9
18.8
43.2
39.3

33
23.12
42.4
23.12
17.34
21.5
38.4
40.2
22
21.5
18.34
29.3
23.12
23
42.4
23.12
13.4
21.5
38.4
18.8
33.9
17.34
38

29.3
21.5
33
33.12
33.9
42.4
23.12
16.6
33.12
51.9
58.12
18.8
17.34
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
33
33.12
33.9
46.6
23.12
17.34

18.8
23.12
18
21.5
38.4
42.4
23.12
21.5
73.6
21.5
38.4
33
20.1
22
18.34
58.2
22
23.12
57.8
34
23.12
59.57
34

53.3
54.29
60.39
55.33
52.84
59.57
73.6
85.8
73.6
51.9
58.12
61.25
80.2
73.6
59.5
58.2
51.23
60.54
57.8
53.88
73.9
51.37
55.24

33.4
133.6
15.5

33.6
80.2
16.3

28.3
42.4
13.4

32.4
51.9
16.6

33.9
91.3
18

33.0
73.9
9

Clculo de las lminas para distintas frecuencias

No

Ao

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

Precipitacin (mm)
xi
53.3
54.29
60.39
55.33
52.84
59.57
73.6
85.8
73.6
51.9
58.12
61.25
80.2
73.6
59.5
58.2
51.23
60.54
57.8
53.88
73.9
51.37
55.24

Suma 1415.5

(xi - x)^2
67.92
52.58
1.33
38.58
75.71
3.89
145.41
588.48
145.41
92.95
11.71
0.08
348.15
145.41
4.17
11.16
106.32
1.00
14.00
58.70
152.74
103.46
39.71

2208.87

Variable
Reducida

Periodo Retorno

Prob. de
ocurrencia

Aos

YT

XT'(mm)

F(xT)

2
5
10
25
50
75
100
500

0.3665
1.4999
2.2504
3.1985
3.9019
4.3108
4.6001
6.2136

59.8953
68.7504
74.6132
82.0209
87.5164
90.7105
92.9713
105.5767

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9600
0.9800
0.9867
0.9900
0.9980

x=

(x
i =1

61.54

mm

10.02

mm

*s =

7.81

mm

57.03

mm

- x)

n -1

a=

S=

Precip. (mm)

u = x - 0.5772 * a =

Valores concluidos para las relaciones a la lluvia de duracin 24 horas

F. Campos A., 1978

Fuente: D.

Duraciones, en horas
1

12

18

0.3

0.39

0.46

0.52

0.57

0.61

0.68

0.8

0.91

Precipitaciones mximas para diferentes tiempos de duracin de lluvias

Tiempo de
Duracin
24 hr
18 hr
12 hr
8 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr

Cociente
X24
X18 = 91%
X12 = 80%
X8 = 68%
X6 = 61%
X5 = 57%
X4 = 52%
X3 = 46%
X2 = 39%
X1 = 30%

2 aos
67.6817
61.5903
54.1453
46.0235
41.2858
38.5785
35.1945
31.1336
26.3958
20.3045

5 aos
77.6879
70.6960
62.1503
52.8278
47.3896
44.2821
40.3977
35.7364
30.2983
23.3064

Precipitacion para diferentes tiempos de duracin

10 aos
25 aos 50 aos
75 aos
100 aos
84.3129
92.6836 98.8935 102.5029 105.0575
76.7248
84.3421 89.9931 93.2777
95.6023
67.4503
74.1469 79.1148 82.0023
84.0460
57.3328
63.0249 67.2476 69.7020
71.4391
51.4309
56.5370 60.3250 62.5268
64.0851
48.0584
52.8297 56.3693 58.4267
59.8828
43.8427
48.1955 51.4246 53.3015
54.6299
38.7839
42.6345 45.4910 47.1513
48.3265
32.8820
36.1466 38.5685 39.9761
40.9724
25.2939
27.8051 29.6680 30.7509
31.5173

I =

Pmm
t duracin hr.

Intensidades de lluvia para diferentes tiempos de duracin

do de retorno para T = 5 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =

o de retorno para T = 10 aos

N
1

2 aos
2.8201
3.4217
4.5121
5.7529
6.8810
7.7157
8.7986
10.3779
13.1979
20.3045

5 aos
3.2370
3.9276
5.1792
6.6035
7.8983
8.8564
10.0994
11.9121
15.1491
23.3064

10 aos
3.5130
4.2625
5.6209
7.1666
8.5718
9.6117
10.9607
12.9280
16.4410
25.2939

25 aos
3.8618
4.6857
6.1789
7.8781
9.4228
10.5659
12.0489
14.2115
18.0733
27.8051

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980

y
2.8201
3.4217
4.5121
5.7529
6.8810
7.7157
8.7986
10.3779
13.1979
20.3045
83.7824

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

ln y
1.0368
1.2301
1.5068
1.7497
1.9288
2.0433
2.1746
2.3397
2.5801
3.0108
19.6006

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
7.5397
52.8878
8.5921
48.7863
9.9134
43.2865
10.8023 38.1156
11.3529 34.6462
11.6543 32.5331
11.9182 30.0374
12.1498 26.9668
12.3520 22.9201
12.3274 16.7637
108.6022 346.9435

5.5447

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.6826

x
1440

A = 255.8722

y
3.2370
3.9276
5.1792
6.6035
7.8983
8.8564
10.0994
11.9121
15.1491
23.3064
96.1690

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 293.7011

y
3.5130

ln x
7.2724

B=

ln y
1.1746
1.3680
1.6446
1.8876
2.0666
2.1811
2.3125
2.4776
2.7179
3.1487
20.9794
B=

ln y
1.2565

50 aos
4.1206
4.9996
6.5929
8.4059
10.0542
11.2739
12.8562
15.1637
19.2842
29.6680

75 aos
4.2710
5.1821
6.8335
8.7127
10.4211
11.6853
13.3254
15.7171
19.9881
30.7509

100 aos
4.3774
5.3112
7.0038
8.9299
10.6808
11.9766
13.6575
16.1088
20.4862
31.5173

Intensidad (mm/hr)

Ln (A) =

min
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60

22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Intensidad (mm/hr)

do de retorno para T = 2 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10

Intensidad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de Retorno

26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

tensidad (mm/hr)

Tiempo de
duracin
Hr
24 hr
18 hr
12 hr
8 hr
6 hr
5 hr
4 hr
3 hr
2 hr
1 hr

28
26
24

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
8.5425
52.8878
9.5552
48.7863
10.8206 43.2865
11.6536 38.1156
12.1645 34.6462
12.4408 32.5331
12.6739 30.0374
12.8659 26.9668
13.0121 22.9201
12.8920 16.7637
116.6209 346.9435

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
9.1376

(lnx)^2
52.8878

o de retorno para T = 50 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =

o de retorno para T = 75 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

5.8591

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.9239

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180

A = 318.7471

y
3.8618
4.6857
6.1789
7.8781
9.4228
10.5659
12.0489
14.2115
18.0733
27.8051
114.7320

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 350.3928

y
4.1206
4.9996
6.5929
8.4059
10.0542
11.2739
12.8562
15.1637
19.2842
29.6680
122.4192

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 373.8694

y
4.2710
5.1821
6.8335
8.7127
10.4211
11.6853
13.3254
15.7171

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930

1.4499
1.7265
1.9694
2.1485
2.2630
2.3943
2.5594
2.7998
3.2306
21.7978
B=

ln y
1.3511
1.5445
1.8211
2.0641
2.2431
2.3576
2.4890
2.6541
2.8944
3.3252
22.7443
B=

ln y
1.4160
1.6094
1.8860
2.1289
2.3080
2.4225
2.5538
2.7189
2.9593
3.3901
23.3928
B=

ln y
1.4518
1.6452
1.9218
2.1648
2.3438
2.4583
2.5897
2.7548

10.1268 48.7863
11.3590 43.2865
12.1588 38.1156
12.6462 34.6462
12.9075 32.5331
13.1224 30.0374
13.2908 26.9668
13.4039 22.9201
13.2270 16.7637
121.3801 346.9435

Intensidad (mm/hr)

Ln (A) =

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980

6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Intensidad (mm/hr)

o de retorno para T = 25 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10

5.7644

4.2625
5.6209
7.1666
8.5718
9.6117
10.9607
12.9280
16.4410
25.2939
104.3700

30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Intensidad (mm/hr)

Ln (A) =

1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980

32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Intensidad (mm/hr)

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10

34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
9.8260
52.8878
10.7880 48.7863
11.9817 43.2865
12.7432 38.1156
13.2033 34.6462
13.4474 32.5331
13.6412 30.0374
13.7824 26.9668
13.8571 22.9201
13.6146 16.7637
126.8849 346.9435

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
10.2976 52.8878
11.2409 48.7863
12.4084 43.2865
13.1436 38.1156
13.5851 34.6462
13.8173 32.5331
13.9966 30.0374
14.1191 26.9668
14.1676 22.9201
13.8801 16.7637
130.6564 346.9435

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
10.5583
11.4913
12.6443
13.3649
13.7961
14.0218
14.1930
14.3053

(lnx)^2
52.8878
48.7863
43.2865
38.1156
34.6462
32.5331
30.0374
26.9668

de retorno para T = 100 aos

N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =
de retorno para T = 500 aos
N
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10
Ln (A) =

5.9598

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
5.9844

x
1440
1080
720
480
360
300
240
180
120
60
4980
6.1115

19.9881
30.7509
126.8872

4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 387.5149

y
4.3774
5.3112
7.0038
8.9299
10.6808
11.9766
13.6575
16.1088
20.4862
31.5173
130.0495

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 397.1726

y
4.9709
6.0314
7.9534
10.1406
12.1290
13.6004
15.5092
18.2929
23.2638
35.7905
147.6822

ln x
7.2724
6.9847
6.5793
6.1738
5.8861
5.7038
5.4806
5.1930
4.7875
4.0943
58.1555

A = 451.0228

2.9951
3.4259
23.7513
B=

ln y
1.4765
1.6698
1.9465
2.1894
2.3685
2.4830
2.6143
2.7794
3.0198
3.4505
23.9975
B=

ln y
1.6036
1.7970
2.0736
2.3166
2.4956
2.6101
2.7414
2.9065
3.1469
3.5777
25.2690
B=

14.3392 22.9201
14.0269 16.7637
132.7412 346.9435
-0.6164

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
10.7374 52.8878
11.6633 48.7863
12.8062 43.2865
13.5169 38.1156
13.9410 34.6462
14.1622 32.5331
14.3280 30.0374
14.4331 26.9668
14.4570 22.9201
14.1277 16.7637
134.1728 346.9435

Intensidad (mm/hr)

Ln (A) =

120
60
4980

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

Intensidad (mm/hr)

9
10
10

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

-0.6164

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
11.6620 52.8878
12.5513 48.7863
13.6428 43.2865
14.3019 38.1156
14.6894 34.6462
14.8874 32.5331
15.0248 30.0374
15.0934 26.9668
15.0658 22.9201
14.6483 16.7637
141.5670 346.9435
-0.6164

Resumen de aplicacin de regresin potencial

Periodo de
Trmino ctte. de
Coef. de
Retorno (aos)
regresin (d)
regresin [ c ]
2
255.87223409118
-0.6163860881
5
293.70110033948
-0.6163860881
10
318.74710139413
-0.6163860881
25
350.39279012234
-0.6163860881
50
373.86936980474
-0.6163860881
75
387.51485297025
-0.6163860881
100
397.17260210788
-0.6163860881
500
451.02281454062
-0.6163860881
Promedio =
353.53660817133
-0.6163860881
I
I

Regresin potencial
N
x
1
2
2
5
3
10
4
25
5
50
6
75
7
100
8
500
8
767

Constante de Regresin d

Ln (A) =

y
255.8722
293.7011
318.7471
350.3928
373.8694
387.5149
397.1726
451.0228
2828.2929

ln x
0.6931
1.6094
2.3026
3.2189
3.9120
4.3175
4.6052
6.2146
26.8733

ln y
5.5447
5.6826
5.7644
5.8591
5.9239
5.9598
5.9844
6.1115
46.8302

A = 247.8703

5.5129

B=

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100

0.1015

y = 247.8703x0.1015
R = 0.9848
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

d Vs. T

80

90

100

Power (d Vs. T)

Termino constante de regresin (a) = 247.8703

Coef. de regresin (b) = 0.101476

0.101476

a *T
tc

I=

247.8703

d
=
c
t

ln x*ln y
(lnx)^2
3.8433
0.4805
9.1457
2.5903
13.2730
5.3019
18.8596 10.3612
23.1745 15.3039
25.7312 18.6407
27.5590 21.2076
37.9807 38.6214
159.5670 112.5074

Perodo de Retorno (aos)

I =

* T
0.61639

d
d
*
c
t

x
2
5
10
25
50
75
100
500

a *T b
I =
tc

Intensidad - Tiempo de duracin - Perodo de retorno

Tabla de intensidad - Tiempo de duracin - Periodo de retorno
Frecuencia
aos

10

2
5
10
15
20
50
100
500

98.61
108.22
116.11
120.99
124.57
136.71
146.67
172.69

64.33
70.59
75.74
78.92
81.26
89.17
95.67
112.65

Duracin en minutos
15
20

50.10
54.98
58.99
61.47
63.29
69.45
74.52
87.74

41.96
46.05
49.40
51.48
53.00
58.17
62.41
73.48

t
t
c
c

25

30

36.57
40.13
43.06
44.86
46.19
50.69
54.39
64.04

32.68
35.87
38.48
40.10
41.28
45.31
48.61
57.23

0.77
0.019
5
*m
L
L

=
0 .3
=
1
/
4

0.385
S

0 . 76

Frecuencia
aos

35

40

45

50

55

60

2
5
10
15
20
50
100
500

29.72
32.61
34.99
36.46
37.54
41.20
44.20
52.04

27.37
30.04
32.23
33.58
34.57
37.94
40.71
47.93

25.45
27.93
29.97
31.23
32.15
35.29
37.86
44.57

23.85
26.18
28.09
29.26
30.13
33.07
35.48
41.77

22.49
24.68
26.48
27.60
28.41
31.18
33.45
39.39

21.32
23.40
25.10
26.15
26.93
29.55
31.71
37.33

INTENSIDAD (mm/h)

175.00
150.00

Ao 100

125.00

Ao 50
Ao 20

100.00

Ao 15
Ao 10

400
75.00

Ao 5

50.00
25.00
0.00
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

TIEMPO DE DURACION (min)

Tabla de intensidades - Tiempo de duracin

45

50

55

luvia de duracin 24 horas

F. Campos A., 1978

Fuente: D.

Duraciones, en horas
24
1

as para diferentes tiempos de duracin de lluvias

Precipitacion para diferentes tiempos de duracin
500 aos

119.3016
108.5645
95.4413
81.1251
72.7740
68.0019
62.0368
54.8787
46.5276
35.7905

lluvia para diferentes tiempos de duracin

ad de la lluvia (mm /hr) segn el Periodo de Retorno

500 aos

4.9709
6.0314
7.9534
10.1406
12.1290
13.6004
15.5092
18.2929
23.2638
35.7905

Regresin T= 2 aos

200

400

Regresin T= 5 aos

200

400

I Vs. t

Regresin T= 10 aos

200

400

I Vs. t

Regresin T= 25 aos

200

400

Regresin T= 50 aos

200

400

I Vs. t

Regresin T= 75 aos

200

400

I Vs. t

Regresin T= 100 aos

200

400

I Vs. t

Regresin T= 500 aos

200

400

Series1

y
255.8722
293.7011
318.7471
350.3928
373.8694
387.5149
397.1726
451.0228

60

Debido a la falta de pluvigrafos en las estaciones prximas al sitio de proyecto, que permitan una determinacin d
las curvas de intensidad - duracin - frecuencia, se trabaj sobre la base de registros de mximas precipitaciones d

ESTIMACION DE LA PRECIPITACION MAXIMA PROBABLE

La precipitacin mxima probable es aquella magnitud de lluvia que ocurre sobre una cuenca particular, en la cual
un gasto de avenida, para el que virtualmente no existe riesgo de ser excedido.

Los diversos procedimientos de estimacin de la precipitacin mxima probable no estn normalizados, ya que va
principalmente con la cantidad y calidad de los datos disponibles; adems, cambian con el tamao de la cuenca, s
emplazamiento y su topografa, con los tipos de temporales que producen las precipitaciones extremas y con el clim
mtodos de estimacin de fcil y rpida aplicacin son los empricos y el estadstico.

Aunque existe un nmero importante de distribuciones de probabilidad empleadas en hidrologa, son slo unas cua
comunmente utilizadas, debido a que los datos hidrolgicos de diversos tipos han probado en repetidas ocasiones
satisfactoriamente a un cierto modelo terico. Las lluvias mximas horarias o diarias por lo comn se ajustan bien
distribucin de valores extremos tipo I o Gumbel, a la Log-Pearson tipo III y a la gamma incompleta. En este proye
emple la distribucin Gumbel.

an una determinacin directa de

ximas precipitaciones diarias.

a particular, en la cual generar

ormalizados, ya que varan

amao de la cuenca, su
s extremas y con el clima. Los

oga, son slo unas cuantas las

n repetidas ocasiones ajustarse
omn se ajustan bien a la
ompleta. En este proyecto se