Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
PE a 0 a1 P a 2 P 2 a 3 P 3 a 4 P 4 a 5 P 5
Donde:
PE
ai
Curva II
Curva III
Curva IV
a0
a1
-0.0214
0.0163
0.054
0.1358
0.2273
0.0348
a2
-0.0023
-0.0039
0.0112
a3
4.00E-05
1.00E-04
-6.00E-05
a4
a5
-9.00E-08
-7.00E-07
2.00E-07
-9.00E-11
1.00E-09
-2.00E-10
C
0.30
0.45
0.60
El rango de aplicacin de los coeficientes de PE esta
comprendida para 0<P<180 mm
12
Q
C
P
PE
i 1
donde:
C = Coeficiente de escurrimiento
Q = Caudal anual
P = Precipitacin Total anual
12
PE
i 1
b)
Calculo de variables del gasto de la retencin a partir del mes de abril hasta el mes
de setiembre (6 meses):
bi b0i
i 1
Finalmente:
Gi R
b0i
7
b
i 1
i
0
c)
Donde:
Ai
ai
R
i
=
=
=
=
PEi
PEt
=
=
d)
Generacin de caudales mensuales (CMi) para el ao promedio con la ecuacin
siguiente:
CM i PE i Gi Ai
e)
De la ecuacion anterior se efecta la regresin mltiple entre el caudal del mes t, el
caudal del mes anterior (t-1) y la precipitacin efectiva del mes t, determinndose los
coeficientes de regresin, el error estndar y el coeficiente de correlacin.
f)
g)
Se generan los nmeros aleatorios con distribucin normal con media cero y
variancia igual a 1.
h)
Con los datos de los items e, f y g se procede a la generacin de los caudales
mediante el siguiente modelo autoregresivo:
Qt b1 b2 Qt 1 b3 PEt S 1 R 2
1/ 2
Zt
Donde:
Qt
Qt-1
PEt
b1, b2 y b3
584.40
mm
9.60
584.24
423.91
0.27
D P
Mtodo de L - Turc
P 2 2
0 .9 2
L
mm/ao
L 300 25 T 0 . 05 ( T ) 3
P D
P
1203.61
Km 2
Coef.
Curva II
Curva III
-0.0214
0.0163
0.054
0.1358
0.2273
0.0348
-----
msnm
-----
m/m
a0
a1
Curva IV
584.40
mm
a2
-0.0023
-0.0039
0.0112
-----
mm
a3
4.00E-05
1.00E-04
-6.00E-05
9.60
-7.00E-07
2.00E-07
423.9
mm/ao
a4
a5
-9.00E-08
-9.00E-11
1.00E-09
-2.00E-10
0.27
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.0161
0.616
-----
Km 2
45.0
mm/ao
PRECIPITACION MENSUAL
Efectiva
PE III
PE IV
PE
CONTRIBUCION DE LA RETENCION
Gasto
Abastecimiento
bi
Gi
ai
Ai
MES
N
das del
mes
mm/mes
mm/mes
mm/mes
mm/mes
mm/mes
CAUDALES GENERADOS
mm/mes
mm/mes
m3/s
10
11
12
Enero
30
153.67
1.08
146.54
31.96
0.180
8.1
23.9
11.081
Febrero
28
124.20
22.66
103.87
39.90
0.350
15.8
24.2
12.018
Marzo
Abril
Mayo
Junio
Julio
Agosto
Setiem.
Octubre
Noviem.
Diciem.
31
30
31
30
31
31
30
31
30
31
100.95
33.49
4.45
2.97
2.99
6.85
10.55
20.32
37.72
86.25
23.88
6.17
0.96
0.66
0.66
1.42
2.09
3.75
7.07
20.80
74.66
11.77
0.43
0.25
0.26
0.80
1.60
4.91
14.47
57.99
34.66
7.36
0.85
0.57
0.58
1.29
1.98
4.00
8.64
28.70
0.616
0.380
0.234
0.144
0.089
0.055
0.034
0.021
17.6
10.9
6.7
4.1
2.5
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.200
0.030
9.0
1.4
0.040
0.200
1.8
9.0
25.7
23.6
11.7
7.3
4.7
3.8
3.6
5.0
7.4
19.7
11.532
10.976
5.263
3.377
2.115
1.723
1.650
2.230
3.452
8.852
584.40
91.20
417.55
160.49
1.574
45.0
1.000
45.00
160.49
6.189
0.27
0.788
0.212
1.000
AO
Coeficientes
Qt-1
PE
Resumen
23.9
24.2
19.7
23.9
32.0
39.9
Estadsticas de la regresin
25.7
23.6
11.7
7.3
4.7
24.2
25.7
23.6
11.7
7.3
34.7
7.4
0.8
0.6
0.6
3.8
3.6
4.7
3.8
1.3
2.0
5.0
7.4
19.7
3.6
5.0
7.4
4.0
8.6
28.7
Intercepcin
Qt-1
PE
Coeficientes
1.7558236
0.522215
0.3465029
0.956804
0.915474
0.896691
2.957281
12
Error tpico
1.558955367
0.111524689
0.066179879
Estadstico t
1.126282145
4.682505359
5.235774447
Prob ab ilidad
0.28918053
0.00114814
0.00053778
b1
1.756
b2
0.5222
2.957
R2
0.9155
Qt b1 b2 Qt 1 b3 PEt S 1 R 2
1/ 2
b3
0.3465
Zt
Ao
Ene.
Feb.
Mar.
Abr.
May.
Jun.
Jul.
Ago.
Set.
Oct.
Nov.
Dic.
Tot.
Prom .
23.9
24.2
25.7
23.6
11.7
7.3
4.7
3.8
3.6
5.0
7.4
19.7
160.5
1967
14.2
19.9
22.6
13.3
11.0
9.4
8.3
6.6
5.42
4.0
4.0
10.5
129.1
1968
41.6
33.0
41.4
26.2
17.4
9.9
7.7
7.8
6.51
6.6
9.8
6.4
214.0
1969
31.1
24.3
15.3
10.1
6.0
4.9
5.8
5.5
6.79
5.8
7.4
34.6
157.6
1970
49.0
38.3
45.7
24.5
14.5
9.0
5.8
4.7
3.54
4.8
5.5
16.0
221.5
1971
16.5
38.9
26.7
15.7
8.9
8.0
5.5
3.9
3.19
5.0
3.8
12.6
148.8
1972
30.1
25.3
30.0
17.2
11.5
8.2
4.3
5.2
3.18
4.9
5.4
25.0
170.3
1973
64.9
59.3
45.2
26.7
15.2
10.7
7.4
8.1
4.97
6.3
6.0
4.3
259.0
1974
53.1
52.3
31.0
19.8
10.6
8.6
8.0
10.7
9.01
7.0
5.5
8.1
223.6
1975
28.4
36.9
28.4
17.3
12.1
9.9
7.3
4.3
5.16
4.9
3.9
31.3
189.9
1976
42.2
34.7
23.9
15.2
10.1
8.0
6.4
7.2
6.02
5.2
3.8
6.5
169.3
1977
9.7
36.9
40.2
24.4
12.9
8.5
7.5
6.1
6.30
6.4
14.9
13.0
186.8
1978
32.0
18.8
15.3
10.8
7.3
4.6
2.7
1.8
4.02
2.5
5.3
11.1
116.5
1979
24.6
15.6
17.7
11.3
7.2
3.8
2.8
4.6
3.73
3.7
6.8
12.8
114.6
1980
8.5
6.9
15.8
10.3
7.7
5.1
4.9
3.3
4.01
6.6
5.2
4.5
82.9
1981
24.5
57.2
35.2
21.3
14.6
10.8
6.4
4.0
4.04
4.6
5.1
15.1
202.9
1982
44.4
25.5
21.2
14.1
10.0
7.5
5.7
4.2
4.29
7.2
9.1
7.3
160.5
1983
5.8
6.0
4.3
3.4
4.5
4.7
3.7
3.0
4.73
6.9
4.1
6.4
57.6
1984
38.8
52.6
42.0
24.1
15.7
11.7
6.2
6.0
5.14
9.7
22.9
19.2
253.9
1985
15.3
42.7
33.9
22.2
13.4
10.2
7.0
5.4
5.09
3.2
8.9
14.7
181.9
1986
33.3
43.7
48.0
29.3
17.7
11.4
7.8
6.9
5.34
3.3
5.6
14.6
226.8
1987
51.3
29.2
17.7
10.7
6.1
6.2
5.1
3.4
3.38
5.8
5.3
5.4
149.4
1988
26.8
17.6
23.0
15.6
11.1
6.7
4.1
3.7
2.58
4.2
3.5
8.1
127.1
1989
23.8
16.9
16.9
10.7
8.9
7.2
6.9
3.4
2.97
2.7
2.7
1.2
104.3
1990
19.4
10.7
8.0
5.4
4.9
3.9
4.7
4.6
3.64
2.8
7.5
7.4
83.0
1991
17.1
15.7
23.9
14.4
8.9
7.0
5.9
4.9
3.91
4.1
5.0
5.4
116.2
1992
9.9
8.0
6.8
7.8
5.3
3.7
4.8
4.1
4.38
4.0
4.7
5.9
69.5
1993
39.3
21.6
25.8
15.0
9.2
8.0
7.2
7.1
7.28
6.8
13.5
20.1
181.0
1994
41.3
59.1
44.4
36.6
21.4
13.5
8.7
5.6
5.61
5.5
5.1
13.2
260.1
1995
13.9
16.2
27.4
15.6
9.9
6.2
5.2
2.7
4.33
4.3
5.0
8.9
119.7
1996
46.6
45.0
27.4
15.6
11.0
4.9
4.2
5.1
3.49
6.0
4.3
10.2
183.9
1997
26.1
45.5
26.1
14.1
11.5
7.2
5.3
4.4
3.29
4.2
5.1
5.6
158.2
1998
29.9
21.3
15.0
10.0
6.2
3.1
3.6
3.2
2.56
5.0
5.8
6.1
111.7
1999
11.2
42.1
51.7
31.0
18.3
11.4
9.1
9.6
6.75
6.9
5.2
6.7
210.0
2000
32.4
37.9
23.4
15.2
10.2
7.7
6.0
6.1
2.93
1.6
3.6
13.6
160.6
2001
52.4
57.4
42.2
25.4
15.7
10.6
7.0
6.3
5.88
5.7
4.2
6.2
238.9
2002
8.9
31.0
44.5
28.4
18.9
12.0
7.7
5.9
5.92
5.2
5.8
13.6
187.8
2003
16.3
23.7
28.2
15.9
14.3
9.2
5.5
5.4
5.46
5.8
5.6
6.8
142.3
2004
21.7
24.4
20.5
13.6
8.8
7.5
3.8
4.7
5.54
4.1
4.9
5.2
124.6
2005
15.8
31.6
19.8
14.1
8.6
8.0
4.5
3.3
4.20
3.7
4.1
10.5
128.1
2006
34.6
28.7
31.8
17.5
10.5
6.0
4.7
4.0
4.94
5.9
6.2
10.1
164.8
2007
20.3
15.2
28.4
17.1
11.4
8.6
6.1
5.4
3.86
5.5
4.3
9.3
135.5
2008
36.9
26.6
16.9
10.4
7.8
6.4
6.2
4.5
2.86
2.9
2.3
15.3
139.1
2009
13.8
31.0
18.0
10.9
6.8
5.3
4.8
5.4
3.91
5.5
5.1
7.1
117.7
2010
22.8
44.9
25.0
15.9
9.9
6.9
5.0
3.4
2.39
3.0
4.0
21.4
164.6
MAX.
64.9
59.3
51.7
36.6
21.4
13.5
9.1
10.7
9.0
9.7
22.9
34.6
260.1
MED.
28.2
31.1
27.2
16.9
11.0
7.8
5.9
5.1
4.6
5.0
6.0
11.3
160.1
MIN.
5.8
6.0
4.3
3.4
4.5
3.1
2.7
1.8
2.4
1.6
2.3
1.2
57.6
D.EST
14.4
14.7
11.6
7.1
4.0
2.5
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
3.6
7.0
50.5
Ao
Area
1,203.61
Km2
Ene.
30
Feb.
28
Mar.
31
Abr.
30
May.
31
Jun.
30
Jul.
31
Ago.
31
Set.
30
Oct.
31
Nov.
30
Dic.
31
Prom .
(m 3/s)
1967
6.58
9.89
10.14
6.19
4.93
4.37
3.72
2.97
2.52
1.79
1.86
4.72
4.97
1968
19.30
16.41
18.59
12.16
7.80
4.60
3.45
3.49
3.02
2.95
4.54
2.86
8.26
1969
14.46
12.09
6.86
4.70
2.69
2.28
2.60
2.49
3.15
2.60
3.43
15.54
6.07
1970
22.75
19.05
20.54
11.39
6.52
4.17
2.61
2.12
1.65
2.17
2.57
7.20
8.56
1971
7.65
19.37
12.00
7.30
4.02
3.71
2.48
1.77
1.48
2.24
1.78
5.66
5.79
1972
13.98
12.60
13.47
7.98
5.18
3.82
1.94
2.33
1.47
2.18
2.50
11.25
6.56
1973
30.14
29.52
20.30
12.38
6.83
4.96
3.34
3.65
2.31
2.83
2.78
1.94
10.08
1974
24.64
26.02
13.94
9.17
4.74
3.99
3.60
4.83
4.18
3.13
2.54
3.63
8.70
1975
13.21
18.38
12.74
8.05
5.42
4.59
3.28
1.93
2.40
2.18
1.82
14.08
7.34
1976
19.60
17.26
10.76
7.08
4.53
3.69
2.89
3.25
2.80
2.32
1.76
2.91
6.57
1977
4.49
18.36
18.05
11.34
5.80
3.96
3.38
2.75
2.92
2.87
6.90
5.84
7.22
1978
14.88
9.36
6.88
5.03
3.29
2.13
1.23
0.83
1.87
1.11
2.48
4.99
4.51
1979
11.40
7.76
7.95
5.26
3.24
1.75
1.26
2.07
1.73
1.68
3.14
5.75
4.42
1980
3.97
3.44
7.08
4.79
3.44
2.38
2.20
1.46
1.86
2.96
2.43
2.04
3.17
1981
11.40
28.47
15.80
9.87
6.55
5.03
2.87
1.82
1.88
2.06
2.38
6.77
7.91
1982
20.60
12.71
9.52
6.56
4.48
3.49
2.56
1.90
1.99
3.23
4.22
3.26
6.21
1983
2.71
2.99
1.95
1.59
2.00
2.17
1.68
1.33
2.20
3.09
1.92
2.87
2.21
1984
18.01
26.19
18.87
11.17
7.04
5.41
2.78
2.69
2.39
4.36
10.61
8.63
9.85
1985
7.11
21.22
15.21
10.32
6.03
4.74
3.13
2.41
2.36
1.43
4.14
6.60
7.06
1986
15.48
21.73
21.57
13.59
7.96
5.30
3.49
3.10
2.48
1.47
2.59
6.55
8.78
1987
23.81
14.53
7.95
4.98
2.72
2.86
2.29
1.53
1.57
2.61
2.44
2.42
5.81
1988
12.46
8.77
10.33
7.23
4.99
3.12
1.86
1.67
1.20
1.87
1.64
3.66
4.90
1989
11.05
8.42
7.60
4.98
4.01
3.33
3.11
1.51
1.38
1.22
1.25
0.53
4.03
1990
9.01
5.35
3.61
2.51
2.20
1.80
2.10
2.06
1.69
1.25
3.47
3.33
3.20
1991
7.92
7.81
10.75
6.67
4.01
3.24
2.67
2.22
1.81
1.82
2.32
2.41
4.47
1992
4.60
4.00
3.07
3.60
2.38
1.71
2.14
1.86
2.03
1.82
2.19
2.67
2.67
1993
18.26
10.73
11.61
6.95
4.14
3.73
3.25
3.21
3.38
3.04
6.27
9.03
6.97
1994
19.19
29.40
19.96
16.99
9.63
6.27
3.90
2.52
2.61
2.48
2.39
5.93
10.10
1995
6.47
8.08
12.33
7.24
4.46
2.88
2.31
1.20
2.01
1.92
2.33
3.99
4.60
1996
21.66
22.41
12.33
7.25
4.93
2.28
1.88
2.27
1.62
2.69
2.00
4.61
7.16
1997
12.13
22.63
11.74
6.53
5.15
3.32
2.36
1.97
1.53
1.89
2.38
2.50
6.18
1998
13.87
10.58
6.74
4.65
2.80
1.43
1.62
1.45
1.19
2.23
2.71
2.72
4.33
1999
5.19
20.94
23.25
14.41
8.23
5.28
4.10
4.32
3.13
3.10
2.41
3.00
8.11
2000
15.06
18.84
10.51
7.04
4.59
3.56
2.69
2.76
1.36
0.74
1.66
6.10
6.24
2001
24.31
28.58
18.95
11.78
7.04
4.91
3.13
2.83
2.73
2.55
1.95
2.81
9.30
2002
4.12
15.44
20.02
13.17
8.49
5.58
3.45
2.65
2.75
2.35
2.67
6.11
7.23
2003
7.57
11.78
12.69
7.37
6.42
4.28
2.48
2.45
2.54
2.60
2.61
3.07
5.49
2004
10.09
12.13
9.21
6.31
3.94
3.46
1.71
2.13
2.57
1.85
2.25
2.33
4.83
2005
7.33
15.73
8.92
6.53
3.85
3.71
2.01
1.48
1.95
1.68
1.92
4.70
4.98
2006
16.05
14.27
14.30
8.10
4.72
2.76
2.13
1.81
2.29
2.64
2.86
4.56
6.37
2007
9.41
7.57
12.75
7.94
5.11
4.01
2.76
2.42
1.79
2.49
2.01
4.20
5.20
2008
17.15
13.24
7.59
4.83
3.52
2.97
2.81
2.00
1.33
1.30
1.08
6.86
5.39
2009
2010
6.42
10.58
15.40
22.35
8.10
11.23
5.08
7.40
3.08
4.44
2.45
3.21
2.15
2.25
2.42
1.52
1.81
1.11
2.49
1.33
2.36
1.84
3.20
9.63
4.58
6.41
MAX.
30.14
29.52
23.25
MED.
13.09
15.50
12.22
MIN.
2.71
2.99
1.95
D.EST
6.68
7.32
5.23
Fuente: Elaboracin propia
16.99
7.85
1.59
3.30
9.63
4.94
2.00
1.82
6.27
3.61
1.43
1.17
4.10
2.63
1.23
0.70
4.83
2.31
0.83
0.80
4.18
2.14
1.11
0.67
4.36
2.24
0.74
0.71
10.61
2.80
1.08
1.65
15.54
5.08
0.53
3.13
10.10
6.20
2.21
1.97
45
0
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Rio Paltuture
40
35
Ao
20.00
Q(m3/s)
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Ene. Feb. Mar. Abr. May. Jun. Jul. Ago. Set. Oct. Nov. Dic.
30
MESES
25
20
15
10
( )
( )
( )
Cuadro N 18. Persistencia de caudal mensual y anual generado del Rio Paltuture (m3/s)
P (%)
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Oct
Nov
Dic
Prom.
50%
12.293
14.964
11.672
7.237
4.658
3.630
2.603
2.171
2.001
2.237
2.398
4.378
5.854
75%
7.388
9.490
7.989
5.127
3.606
2.787
2.129
1.778
1.628
1.796
1.930
2.860
4.042
95%
4.006
3.582
3.207
2.780
2.245
1.718
1.350
1.235
1.191
1.140
1.345
1.965
2.147
Figura N 13. Variacin mensual de caudales para tres niveles de Persistencia (m3/s) - Rio Paltuture
16.00
14.00
Caudal (m3/s)
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
P (50%)
Jun
Jul
P (75%)
Ago
Set
Oct
Nov
Dic
P (75%)
Cuadro N 19. Persistencia de volumen mensual y anual generado (Hm3) - Rio Paltuture
Ene
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Oct
Nov
Dic
31
28
31
30
31
30
31
31
30
31
30
31
50%
32.93
36.20
31.26
18.76
12.48
9.41
6.97
5.82
5.19
5.99
6.22
11.73
182.94
75%
19.79
22.96
21.40
13.29
9.66
7.22
5.70
4.76
4.22
4.81
5.00
7.66
126.47
95%
10.73
8.67
8.59
7.21
6.01
4.45
3.62
3.31
3.09
3.05
3.49
5.26
67.47
P (%)
Total