EVALUACIN Y ADMINISTRACIN DE PROYECTOS

CICLO 2-2013

"EVALUADO, ANALISIS DE SENSIB

LIC. CARLOS HERRERA

ALUMNAS:
NANCY JENNIFFER SOLS MIRANDA
BRENDA ESTELA MURCIA ESTRADA

9/24/2013

N DE PROYECTOS

NALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD"

RUBROS
DETALLE

2013

2014

2015

Ventas
(-) Costo de Ventas
Utilidad Bruta
(-) Gastos de Operacin
Gastos de Ventas
Gastos de Administracin
Gastos Financieros
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos y
reservas
(-) Reserva Legal (7%)
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos
(-) Impuesto sobre la renta (25%)
Utilidad antes de reparto de
utilidades
Dividendos pagados (9%)
Utilidad Neta (FNE)

145,000.00
8,000.00
137,000.00
38,000.00
6,000.00
28,000.00
4,000.00

148,000.00
7,500.00
140,500.00
37,000.00
7,000.00
26,500.00
3,500.00

152,000.00
9,000.00
143,000.00
38,400.00
8,200.00
27,700.00
2,500.00

99,000.00

103,500.00

104,600.00

6,930.00
92,070.00
23,017.50

7,245.00
96,255.00
24,063.75

7,322.00
97,278.00
24,319.50

69,052.50

72,191.25

72,958.50

6,214.73
62,837.78

6,497.21
65,694.04

6,566.27
66,392.24

2016

2017

153,500.00
10,000.00
143,500.00
36,400.00
9,000.00
25,400.00
2,000.00

157,000.00
11,200.00
145,800.00
33,800.00
9,800.00
24,000.00
0

107,100.00

112,000.00

7,497.00
99,603.00
24,900.75

7,840.00
104,160.00
26,040.00

74,702.25

78,120.00

6,723.20
67,979.05

7,030.80
71,089.20

TMAR
Inv. Inic.
Ao
1
2
3
4
5

40.50%
$ 100,000.00

1.405

Ingresos
Egresos
Flujo Neto
Factor
FNA
145,000.00
82,162.23
62,837.78
1.405
148,000.00
82,305.96
65,694.04
1.9740
152,000.00
85,607.77
66,392.24
2.7735
153,500.00
85,520.95
67,979.05
3.8968
157,000.00
85,910.80
71,089.20
5.4750

$ (100,000.00)
62,837.78
65,694.04
66,392.24
67,979.05
71,089.20

VAN
TIR
PR

44,724.40
33,279.23
23,938.02
17,444.95
12,984.40
132,371.01
32,371.0083490
58.75%
2.92

PR
44,724.40
33,279.23

78,003.63
-21,996.37

44,724.40
33,279.23
23,938.02

101,941.65
1,941.65

RUBROS
DETALLE
Ventas
(-) Costo de
Ventas
Utilidad
Bruta
(-) Gastos
de
Operacin
Gastos de
Ventas
Gastos de
Administrac
in

2013

2014

130,500.00 133,200.00
8,000.00

7,500.00

122,500.00 125,700.00

2015

2016

136,800.00 144,290.00
9,000.00

2017
147,580.00

10,000.00

11,200.00

127,800.00 134,290.00

136,380.00

41,060.00

40,015.00

41,631.00

38,464.00

35,828.00

6,540.00

7,630.00

8,938.00

9,540.00

10,388.00

30,520.00

28,885.00

30,193.00

26,924.00

25,440.00

4,000.00

3,500.00

2,500.00

2,000.00

81,440.00

85,685.00

86,169.00

95,826.00

100,552.00

5,700.80

5,997.95

6,031.83

6,707.82

7,038.64

75,739.20

79,687.05

80,137.17

89,118.18

93,513.36

(-) Impuesto
sobre la
renta (25%)

18,934.80

19,921.76

20,034.29

22,279.55

23,378.34

Utilidad
antes de
reparto de
utilidades

56,804.40

59,765.29

60,102.88

66,838.64

70,135.02

Dividendos
pagados
(9%)

5,112.40

5,378.88

5,409.26

6,015.48

6,312.15

Utilidad
Neta (FNE)

51,692.00

54,386.41

54,693.62

60,823.16

63,822.87

Gastos
Financieros
Utilidad
Antes de
Impuestos y
reservas
(-) Reserva
Legal (7%)
Utilidad
Antes de
Impuestos

TMAR
Inv. Inic.
Ao
1
2
3
4
5

40.50%
$ 100,000.00

1.405

Ingresos
Egresos
Flujo Neto
Factor
FNA
130,500.00
78,808.00
51,692.00
1.405
133,200.00
78,813.59
54,386.41
1.974025
136,800.00
82,106.38
54,693.62 2.77350513
144,290.00
83,466.84
60,823.16
3.8967747
147,580.00
83,757.13
63,822.87 5.47496845

(100,000.00)
51,692.00
54,386.41
54,693.62
60,823.16
63,822.87

VAN
TIR
PR

36,791.46
27,551.02
19,720.04
15,608.59
11,657.21
111,328.32
11,328.3236518
46.92%
4.03

PR
36,791.46
27,551.02
19,720.04
15,608.59

99,671.11
-328.89

36,791.46
27,551.02
19,720.04
15,608.59
11,657.21
111,328.32
11,328.32

ESCENARIO PROBABLE
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
32371.00835
TIR
58.75%
PR
2.92

ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
11328.32365
TIR
46.92%
PR
4.03

RUBROS
DETALLE

2013

2014

2015

Ventas
(-) Costo de Ventas
Utilidad Bruta
(-) Gastos de Operacin
Gastos de Ventas
Gastos de Administracin
Gastos Financieros
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos y
reservas
(-) Reserva Legal (7%)
Utilidad Antes de Impuestos
(-) Impuesto sobre la renta (25%)
Utilidad antes de reparto de
utilidades
Dividendos pagados (5%)
Utilidad Neta (FNE)

150,300.00
8,000.00
142,300.00
55,000.00
6,000.00
45,000.00
4,000.00

157,000.00
7,500.00
149,500.00
58,500.00
7,000.00
48,000.00
3,500.00

165,000.00
9,000.00
156,000.00
64,700.00
8,200.00
54,000.00
2,500.00

87,300.00

91,000.00

91,300.00

6,111.00
81,189.00
20,297.25

6,370.00
84,630.00
21,157.50

6,391.00
84,909.00
21,227.25

60,891.75

63,472.50

63,681.75

3,044.59
57,847.16

3,173.63
60,298.88

3,184.09
60,497.66

2016

2017

172,200.00
10,000.00
162,200.00
67,000.00
9,000.00
56,000.00
2,000.00

165,000.00
11,200.00
153,800.00
69,800.00
9,800.00
60,000.00
0

95,200.00

84,000.00

6,664.00
88,536.00
22,134.00

5,880.00
78,120.00
19,530.00

66,402.00

58,590.00

3,320.10
63,081.90

2,929.50
55,660.50

TMAR
Inv. Inic.
Ao
1
2
3
4
5

40.50%
$ 100,000.00

1.405

Ingresos
Egresos
Flujo Neto
Factor
FNA
150,300.00
92,452.84
57,847.16
1.405
157,000.00
96,701.13
60,298.88
1.9740
165,000.00 104,502.34
60,497.66
2.7735
172,200.00 109,118.10
63,081.90
3.8968
165,000.00 109,339.50
55,660.50
5.4750

$ (100,000.00)
57,847.16
60,298.88
60,497.66
63,081.90
55,660.50

VAN
TIR
PR

41,172.36
30,546.16
21,812.71
16,188.23
10,166.36
119,885.82
19,885.8169436
52.04%
3.40

PR
41,172.36
30,546.16
21,812.71

93,531.22
-6,468.78

41,172.36
30,546.16
21,812.71
16,188.23

109,719.46
9,719.46

RUBROS
DETALLE
Ventas
(-) Costo de
Ventas
Utilidad
Bruta
(-) Gastos
de
Operacin
Gastos de
Ventas
Gastos de
Administrac
in

2013

2014

135,270.00 141,300.00
8,000.00

7,500.00

127,270.00 133,800.00

2015

2016

148,500.00 151,536.00
9,000.00

2017
145,200.00

10,000.00

11,200.00

139,500.00 141,536.00

134,000.00

59,815.00

63,690.00

70,568.00

72,020.00

75,188.00

6,540.00

7,630.00

8,938.00

9,540.00

10,388.00

49,275.00

52,560.00

59,130.00

60,480.00

64,800.00

4,000.00

3,500.00

2,500.00

2,000.00

67,455.00

70,110.00

68,932.00

69,516.00

58,812.00

4,721.85

4,907.70

4,825.24

4,866.12

4,116.84

67,455.00

65,202.30

64,106.76

64,649.88

54,695.16

(-) Impuesto
sobre la
renta (25%)

16,863.75

16,300.58

16,026.69

16,162.47

13,673.79

Utilidad
antes de
reparto de
utilidades

50,591.25

48,901.73

48,080.07

48,487.41

41,021.37

Dividendos
pagados
(5%)

2,529.56

2,445.09

2,404.00

2,424.37

2,051.07

Utilidad
Neta (FNE)

48,061.69

46,456.64

45,676.07

46,063.04

38,970.30

Gastos
Financieros
Utilidad
Antes de
Impuestos y
reservas
(-) Reserva
Legal (7%)
Utilidad
Antes de
Impuestos

TMAR
Inv. Inic.
Ao
1
2
3
4
5

40.50%
$ 100,000.00

1.405

Ingresos
Egresos
Flujo Neto
Factor
FNA
135,270.00
87,208.31
48,061.69
1.405
141,300.00
94,843.36
46,456.64
1.974025
148,500.00 102,823.93
45,676.07 2.77350513
151,536.00 105,472.96
46,063.04
3.8967747
145,200.00 106,229.70
38,970.30 5.47496845

(100,000.00)
48,061.69
46,456.64
45,676.07
46,063.04
38,970.30

VAN
TIR
PR

34,207.61
23,533.97
16,468.72
11,820.81
7,117.90
93,149.00
-6,850.9952153
36.26%
5.50

PR
34,207.61
23,533.97
16,468.72
11,820.81
7,117.90

34,207.61
23,533.97
16,468.72
11,820.81
7,117.90

93,149.00
-6,851.00

93,149.00
-6,851.00

ESCENARIO PROBABLE
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
19885.81694
TIR
52.04%
PR
3.40

ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
-6850.995215
TIR
36.26%
PR
5.50

proyecto A
ESCENARIO PROBABLE
Inv. Inicial
$
100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
32371.00835
TIR
58.75%
PR
2.92

proyecto B
ESCENARIO PROBABLE
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
19885.81694
TIR
52.04%
PR
3.40

proyecto A
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
Inv. Inicial
$
100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
11328.32365
TIR
46.92%
PR
4.03

Proyecto B
ESCENARIO PESIMISTA
Inv. Inicial
$ 100,000.00
TMAR
40.50%
VAN
-6850.995215
TIR
36.26%
PR
5.50