KUMAR RAJENDRAN

ARMS RACE

INTRODUCTION Arms race is not a modern concept. It is prevalent in the history.1 Arms race is defined as the competitive, resource constrained, dynamic process of interaction between two states or coalition of states in their acquisition of weapons.2 It is a race without an end and has no finishing line, for the major participants in it would not withdraw even in the event of economic fatigue.3 The survival of each nation in a nuclear holocaust is diminishing each year with respect to the increase in the power and sophistication of the new weapons. 4 The ratio of amount of TNT in tones accumulated by major powers to an individual in the world is 10:1. The improved technology had made possible that a single bomber or missile can carry amount of explosives equal to the amount used by all the six years of World War II.5 The reason for arms race is to deter the aggressive nations by putting risk of overwhelming destruction over them.6 The other reason for arms race is to gain advantage that it may annihilate the retaliatory power of its enemy state by pre-emptive strike and to force unconditional surrender. The nuclear arms race developed during the cold war lead to the stockpiling of exceeding nuclear arsenals. This would certainly lead in to the situation where launched nuclear missiles from submarines might be of unknown nationality. Should an incident of that kind occur, that would result in an exchange of nuclear blasts and may invite the major powers in such messy situation and eventually which would results in the incidental

Arms race is a historical phenomenon which was evident ancient Greeks and Romans built fleets in the Persian Wars and Punic Wars. Naval arms race was there prior to the World War I. Michael D. Intriligator and Dagobert L. Brito, Arms Races, Defence and Peace Economics, February 2000, volume. 11(1), http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/1999papers/01Brito.pdf As of date April 16, 2012 2 Michael D. Intriligator and Dagobert L. Brito, Arms Races, Defence and Peace Economics, February 2000, volume. 11(1), http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/1999papers/01Brito.pdf As of date April 16, 2012 3 Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 4 Louis B Sohn, Basic Problem of Disarmament, 41 Notre Dame L. 133 1965-1966, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org) As of date February 15, 2012 5 id 6 id

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destruction of other nations or nuclear attack or surrender where obviously one of the leaders would go for the nuclear war rather than accepting the politically costly defeat.7 REASON FOR THE ARMS RACE The reason put forth by many nations for their participation in the arms race even at the cost of their scarce resources is obviously their national security. Yet eventually they buy greater and greater insecurity at higher and higher costs is the opinion of the Alva Myrdal 8. The security concern involves the increase in military spending that is if a nation increases its armaments than another, the later would be put under pressure to increase its military spending so as to reduce the chance of first strike by the former. This is the so-called deterrence theory.9 Analysis on the behaviour of the super power would open up the probabilities of unanswered questions such as, would the present day arms race like historical arms race results in wars and is the arms race aims at reaching the equilibrium. The analysts answer that the horizontal proliferation10 resulting from the vertical proliferation11 of super powers due to arms race especially the non- nuclear arms would increase the probability of occurrence of the non-nuclear war elsewhere in the world.12 The British Mathematician Lewis Richardson presented the thorough and influential model of the arms race. In his model he hypothesised change of nations armament depends positively on its rivals armament and negatively on the level of its own armaments while negative being the fatigue

World faced such a situation in Cuba 1962, Louis B Sohn, Basic Problem of Disarmament, 41 Notre Dame L. 133 1965-1966, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org) As of date February 15, 2012 8 Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 9 id 10 Spread of arms to the third parties those are non members of alliances headed by either superpowers participating in the arms race. 11 Expansion of arms among the super powers and their alliances. 12 The armed third parties will play one super power off against another and hence the horizontal proliferation is destabilizing by bringing stable third parties into one the superpower alliances, Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012

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and the economy of defence.13 However the Richardson model was closer was considered as mechanistic for his model was based on the homogeneity of nations armament and lacks the behavioural emphasis of modern social sciences.14 Analysts are of view that the horizontal proliferation may reduce the probability of nuclear war rather than it increases it.15 Yet on the other side it increases the probability of the accidental or irrational wars and the probability increases with the increase in the number of nuclear states.16 Even if the participants of arms race agree on some issue it may have its side effects like Salt I.17 IMPACT OF ARMS RACE The impact of past decade arms race created today greater instability than cold war period both in regional and global level18 rather than in the cold war period where the proxy war was fought by the two major superpowers. Another threat in post cold war is the

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Richardson tested his hypothesis using the data of World Wars and the belligerent outbreaks of Europe Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 14 The Richardson model assumed that nations armaments are similar in quality and the changes are in quantities. The qualitative changes in the arms race include technological innovation thus plays an important role in destabilizing the region. For, the qualitative changes pose real threat by altering the arms build-up and which made the arms race more dangerous in modern times. The US worried by the alleged USSRs strategic military power developed a no of new weapon systems including cruise missiles of nuclear type which gave US the first strike capability. The posed danger would be the USSRs fear of first strike drives them by striking first. Hence Richardson model was considered as the mechanistic ignoring the modern strategic behavior, preferences for international power and the concept of use of weapons as the act of deterrence; and the use of arms race by US and USSR for economic benefits by encouraging the horizontal proliferation. - Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 15 The distribution of power post cold war among the nuclear nations is viewed with their ability to deter the strike on them by other nations there by reducing the deliberate initiation of war by the first two super powers. With the emergence of additional nuclear nations the mere survival of the initiator of the war was questionable and increases the uncertainty about the response or reactions of the other nuclear power nations. Hence acquisition of nuclear power among the states as per the deterrent theory would reduce the calculated or rational attacks. Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 16 Analysts are of opinion attention should largely be paid in preventing such irrational war than to nonproliferation perse. Instead a better way is to avoid the proliferation itself. Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 17 Salt I a well intentioned agreement limited the quantities of certain strategic armaments and reduced somewhat the military spending thereby had the side effects of accelerating the qualitative arms race through the development of the cruise missiles and increase in the accuracy of strategic nuclear missiles. Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012 18 Michael D. Intriligator and Dagobert L. Brito, Arms Races, Defence and Peace Economics, February 2000, volume. 11(1), http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/1999papers/01Brito.pdf As of date April 16, 2012

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terrorists groups and the non state actors who motivated by the extreme ideologies and religious fanaticism have greater access to the arms that made the society more vulnerable to their attacks.19 The impact of arms race eventually has the impact on socio, economic and the on the resources. INTERNATIONAL IMPLICATION OF ARMS RACE It is clear that international community see arms race as a waste of resources and a diversion of depleting resources. They opine arms race pose threat to democratic procession. It acts as a barrier for the cooperation among states obstructing the new economic order on the more equitable basis.20 The international consequences of arms race is of first, the military aspect; secondly the economic aspects, and thirdly on the international political conditions.21 The political aspects of the arms race are predominant for they escalate other two. The arms race can blow the minor incident that could easily be settled by negotiation in to an international crisis eventually leading into the other two aspects.22 IMPACT OF ARMS RACE ON ECONOMY The arms race affects the economy in two ways; first by way of defence spending and second, absorption of highly skilled and specialised resources.23 The high level of military spending that was accelerated by the arms race lead to inflationary process among many

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Michael D. Intriligator and Dagobert L. Brito, Arms Races, Defence and Peace Economics, February 2000, volume. 11(1), http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/1999papers/01Brito.pdf As of date April 16, 2012
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United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 21 Id History teaches us that the long lasted wars were not the result of arms race but were inflated by the arms race. Even minor conflict may tend to deteriorate if the military preparedness on all sides are high as a result of arms race. 22 United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 23 The defence Spence if not properly financed would lead in inflation etc., and on the contrary even if financed well would affect the economy by channelling the economy in few industries. Secondly as the arms race is highly technological would absorb the high skilled technicians, scientist who otherwise would be utilised in the civil sector. Christopher Green, Economics of the Arms Race, 28 McGill L. J. 651 1982-1983, Hein Online (http://heinonline.org), As of date 26 March 2012

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countries. This was ascertained by two ways; first, the inherent nature of military spending is inflationary in nature creating excess demands eventually rendering upward pressure on prices all over the economy. The nature of military industry is of high capital and intensive technology, would generally pass the increased cost to the customer eventually spread the same to the other sector of the economy.24 The standing military forces absorb a volume of resources substantial enough to affect all the basic parameters involved25. The arms trade as a part of arms race has the direct implication on states; as the imports for military purposes generate no income, it increases the burden of dept of poor countries who import the arms. Analysts are of view that the surplus arms are pure waste the money spent for it could be used productively.26 SOCIAL IMPACT OF ARMS RACE The social impact is interrelated with the economical impact and the impact on resources of arms race. Issue of unemployment is seen as a social impact. The growth in the military industry, the transfer of technology, assistance from the technically advanced country, appropriation of huge budget for the defence purpose had instead of removing the unemployment had substantiated it.27The growing military programme narrows the countrys effective development programme, for many of the countries the economy and the social

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The defence spending therefore forces the other sector of the economy to increase the price whose rate of growth of productivity is considerably less. As the general rule the inflation would tend to be exported causing the transboundary effect in the form of price increases, scarcities in other ways that depends on the circumstances. United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 25 The growing needs throughout the world in housing urban renewal, health, education, agriculture, energy, environment and many other fields, United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 26 United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 27 For instance the United States government estimates that if $1000 million of military expenditure creates 76,000 jobs, the same amount if channeled to civilian programmes of their Federal government would generate 100,000 jobs, the same amount if channeled to the private sector with the tax cuts would create 112,000 jobs. United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective.

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development are determined by the state. The most alarming situation is the impact on the nutrition. Half a million people throughout the globe are severely malnourished. IMPACT ON RESOURCES The resources consumed by the military sector are comparatively larger than the resources consumed by the social sectors globally.
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Resources that are consumed in greater

amount for military purposes are natural resources (non-renewable resources both energy and raw material reserves), man power, and the scientific resources.29 These are the vital resources to any nation and the world community at large for the development. The worlds armed are the major consumers of the non renewable resources.30 Oil being the most widely used resources for the development and is imported from the Middle East plays strategic importance.31 The non renewal resources are consumed majorly by the military industries that push the countries to exploit the environment.32 Arms race demands a very large population
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United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 29 Department for Disarmament Affairs, Report of the Secretary-General, Study on the Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race and Military Expenditures, A/43/368 , United Nations Publication http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/SS-19.pdf As of date 28/April/ 2012 30 Department for Disarmament Affairs, Report of the Secretary-General, Study on the Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race and Military Expenditures, A/43/368 , United Nations Publication http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/SS-19.pdf As of date 28/April/ 2012 31 Sufficient coal would generally be recovered by the state indigenously. Department for Disarmament Affairs, Report of the Secretary-General, Study on the Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race and Military Expenditures, A/43/368 , United Nations Publication http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/SS-19.pdf As of date 28/April/ 2012
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World military consumption of liquid hydrocarbons has been estimated more than 750 million barrels annually. This amount is twice the amount of annual consumption for the whole of the Africa, United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. The scarcity of such non renewable resources would create tension and conflicts. Such scarcity is the result of non sustainable development. The scarcity would attract transnational company to mine specialty metals like aluminum etc. the volatility of the specialty metal started to have impact of new military industries. The scarcity would push the developing nations in to the civil war or the territorial disturbance among two nations whose subjects depends directly on the little resource and in case of industrialized nations the scarcity plays an important role in the external aggression etc for resources such as oil and the raw materials.------ Department for Disarmament Affairs, Report of the Secretary-General, Study on the Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race and Military Expenditures, A/43/368 , United Nations Publication

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into the military sectors those includes the research personnel, engineers, technician, and population of managerial and administrative skills.33 Lastly the technological resource is created by innovation. This is the only resource which was channelled to the military in large scale than any other resources.34 The military project started as a small project accelerated in to mega project either to find new weapon system or upgrade the efficiency of the existing weapon system. With the channelling of the huge millions of dollars and integrating the several scholars, research institutions and the engineers for the above reason raises the question of the potential socio economic benefits from such projects that deprive the technological institutions and research for civilian purpose. CONCLUSION The major problem faced by the world community is the problems of development, depletion of scarce and non renewable resources, regional stability, inflation and the trade relations. The character of the arms race shows its ability to have impact on all over the world. Analysts are of view that only the effective disarmament would curb the arms race. They suggest that the disarmament should be of first, the limitation of the qualitative arms race; secondly through the reduction of military budgets. This could only be achieved by the cooperation of the two major powers in the modern weaponry system, for those powers have

http://www.un.org/disarmament/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/SS-19.pdf As of date 28/April/ 2012

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United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective. 34 For the innovation in technology and the channeling of the same in military field bought the imperialist to conquer many states and establish colonies. With this historical knowledge and the experience the largest contributors to the global military research and development were carried by the six major military spenders. It was estimated to be 97 percent of global military R&D programme. This has lead to the spread of hightechnology weaponry from the technologically leading states to the technologically narrower states. Because many developing states opt for the import of weapons rather than their own production for they think that the resource-based strategy is more appropriate than the manufacturing-based strategy. Those opting for the resource-based strategy are potential weapons customers by exchanging resource for weapons. The best example is industrialized countries and the oil exporting countries. --------United Nations Group of Consultant Experts, Economic and Social Consequences of the Arms Race, Disarmament and development - A global Perspective.

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devoted themselves in full range of producing the modern weapons for both economical and the strategic aspects as discussed above. And these two powers dedicate their technological resources in the qualitative up gradation of the nuclear arsenals. However the potential customers of arms trade and the adoption of those customers by the industrialized nations if left by the two major powers makes it clear that the phenomenon of arms race could be controlled only with the cooperation of all the states and the analysts suggest that could only be done effectively by the one of the plenary organs of the United Nations, the General Assembly. Secondly the military funds should considerably be channelled to the health sector. The vast benefits which could result from even trifling cuts in military expenditures and the reallocation of the funds thus saved are particularly obvious in the field of health.