Hazard 102:

Hydro-meteorological Hazards (Part 4) Flood forecasting & warning system

Project on Enabling Cities in Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change (Project Climate Twin Phoenix)

Training on Trainers on DRR/CCA for Local Partners

8 January 2013, Tagaytay City

SUSAN R. ESPINUEVA
HYDRO-METEOROLOGY DIVISION, PAGASA, DOST

Department of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Flood forecasting and warning Flood Forecasting and Warning is giving advance notice that a flood is imminent or is in progress at a certain location or in a certain river basin. - Accuracy - Timeliness
Flood Forecasting and warning can only be done if a river system or watershed is equipped with a monitoring facilities, i.e. rainfall and water level monitoring facilities and a good communication system.

Network of rainfall & water level stations for flood forecasting & warning system in the Pampanga river basin

Definition of flood/flooding/inundation Overflowing by water of the normal confines of a stream or body of water, or accumulation of water by drainage over areas which are not normally submerged.

Objectives of flood forecasting & warning system

- to forewarn the people living in the low-lying areas of the increase in water level of the river and the expected flood situation;

- to forewarn people living in the target area of the dam on the present and expected flood situation; and - to alert the agencies concerned with flood control and /or flood fighting activities in the event of the occurrence of flood.

Network of existing PAGASA hydrological stations

18 Major river basins Monitored telemetered major river basins (5)

Monitored telemetered major reservoirs

1. Telemetered of fully automatic system

Facilities of a Telemetered Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS)

Rainfall Station
Water Level Station

Warning Station

Water Level Supervisory

Rainfall Supervisory

Flood Forecasting and Warning Center

Relay Station

Field Center

Control Station

Patrol Car

Existing telemetered gauging stations

River basin / dam 1. Pampanga river basin 2. Agno river basin 3. Bicol river basin 4. Cagayan river basin 5. Pasig-Marikina-Laguna lake EFCOS (MMDA) KOICA (PAGASA) ASTI (DOST) 6. Angat dam 5. Pantabangan dam 6. Binga/Ambuklao dam 7. San Roque dam 8. Magat dam 9. Ipo/La Mesa dam RR 17 12 11 5 WL 10 9 7 5 Date 1973 1983 1983 1983 1993 1986 1986 1992 2003 1992

7 17
4 5 6 3 6 2

11 16
2 1 2 2 2 2

Generation of hydrologic (flood) forecasts

How are hydrologic (flood) forecasts generated?

Inputs

Forecast Model

Outputs

Rainfall observation

Hourly hydrographs

Observed water level /discharge Rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction models

Rainfall estimates from radar

Satellite data

Inundation map

Flood information issued by PAGASA River basin Flood information Telemetered Flood bulletins major river basins (PABC) Hydrological forecasts Telemetered Flood bulletins (Angat, Flood Warning Pantabangan, Information San Roque & Dam Updates Magat Time of issuance 5AM & 5PM, intermediate bulletins are issued at 11AM and 11PM Daily at 8AM As the need arises

6:30AM (non-flood season)

Nontelemetered river basins

General Flood Advisories (GFA)

5AM and 5PM

Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation

Agencies involved in the FFWSDO project implementation: NPC / NIA PAGASA DPWH NWRB OCD
Dam authorities in their respective areas of jurisdiction National flood and warning forecasting center

Monitoring agencies

FFWSDO Protocols

FLOOD OPERATION RULE MANUAL NPC/NIA

Prescribes the rules in managing the inflow and outflow of the reservoir during high flows.

DAM DISCHARGE WARNING MANUAL NPC/NIA

Defines the activities undertaken to disseminate info to the public on the rising of WL in the target river due to the release of water from the dam to prevent damage to inhabitants.

FLOOD WARNING MANUAL PAGASA

Activities undertaken to alert/warn people in the target area of dams & concerned agencies on the expected flood situation so that appropriate countermeasures & emergency actions can be taken to mitigate flood damage.

Standard Forms for FFWSDO

Form 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Type of Info Commencement of Preparatory Phase Report on Commencement of Preparatory Phase Commencement of Flood Warning Phase Report on Commencement of Flood Warning Phase Flood Bulletin & Request for Dissemination Report on Completion of Dissemination Request for Dissemination of Flood Disaster Info Report on Completion of Dissemination Termination of Flood Warning Operation Report on Completion of Dissemination of Termination FROM PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office TO Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Dam Office PAGASA Tape M Tapes A-L Tape#

Flood forecasting & warning system for dam operation

Dissemination scheme for basin and dam flood bulletins

Background Information
ABULOG CAGAYAN

In the Philippines, there are 18 major river basins. Before 2006, early warning system (EWS) on flood covered major river basins.
BICOL

ABRA

AGNO PAMPANGA PASIG-MARIKINALAGUNA DE BAY

PANAY JALAUR ILOG HILABANGAN

TAGALOAN AGUSAN
TAGUM LIBUGANON DAVAO BUAYAN -MALANGUN

CAGAYAN DE ORO
AGUS LAKE LANAO MINDANAO

However, the PAGASA extended the establishment of EWS in other river basins due to the increasing occurrence of flooding in the country.

Strategies in the establishment of CBFEWS

Institutions involved in CBFEWS

INSTITUTIONS: 1. Local Government Units

(Province/City/Municipality)

2. PAGASA
3. Office of Civil Defense (OCD)

4. Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG)

5. NGOs

Components/activities in the implementation of CBFEWS

1. Consultation meeting with LGUs

- Roles and responsibilities of stakeholders are explained; proposed network design is presented, etc.; counterpart activities; MOAs, etc.

2. Site survey and ocular inspection

- check available communication system, etc., questionnaires; MOA signing, etc

3. Installation of monitoring facilities, flood signages & hydrographic surveys establish assessment levels; 4. On-site training of observers 5. Seminar on data observation/ retraining 6. Special IEC and flood drill/dry run 7. Turn over of CBFEWS to LGUs

Issuance of warnings will be based on:

1. Assessment water levels
Water Level Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 1.1 m 1.5 m 2.0 m
3
G O

Meaning Awareness Preparedness Response

Flood Warning READY GET SET GO

2. Threshold values of rainfall

Water level at the Meaning monitoring station 1 bell or 1-second of Water level has READY People are brief siren for every 2 reached Level 1 made aware of an seconds for 30 impending flood. seconds 2 bells or two 1The Level 1reached GET SET People second siren for the Level 2 in 30 are advised to prepare every 2 seconds for minutes or less for a possible flood. 30 seconds Continuous ringing Water level at the GO People are of bells or siren for monitoring station advised to respond/ 20 to 30 seconds. reached Level 3 evacuate for an expected flood.

Warning Signal/ Info

Flood Warning Protocol

Strategies of CBFEWS
D at a O RR Observers bs /Ra er in va fa tio ll W n Up ea da the Disaster te/ r In fo Operation Center r e th fo (DOC) ea In W ate/ d l Municipal Hall al Up f in on Ra ati / a v Water Level at s e r D b Observers O

Warning Phase 1 - READY 2 - Get SET 3 - GO

Flood Advisory

Weather Update / Info

Data / Flood Advisory / Warning

PAGASA- Field Station

Communication of Warning 1 - MDCC 2 BDCC 3 Local Volunteers

Bandillo Megaphone w/siren Church Bells

Target Community

Batingaw Sitio/Purok Leaders

Evacuation Center

Flood info

River Observation
1 Color 2 Speed of Flow 3- Sound 4 Presence of Debris

PDCC
Weather Update / Info

RDCC
Legend: Information starts here in case of large-scale
system (Ex. typhoon and monsoon). Information starts here in case of local/ small-scale system (Ex. Thunderstorm and ITCZ).

Existing FEWS in the Philippines

Telemetered or fully automatic
ZAMBALES province BULACAN province

Laguna
province

Manual & community based Telemetered and community based

LEYTE provinces SURIGAO provinces

DUMANGAS, Iloilo

Evolution of FFWS & FFWSDO in the PH

Pampanga River Basin (PRB) FFWS
Flood disaster in Bulacan

Angat &
Pantabangan

FFWSDO

PasigMarikinaLaguna Lake EFCOS (MMDA)

Upgrading of Pampanga FFWS

Upgrading of Agno FFWS / Enhancement of PasigMarikina

Flood due Pedring & Sendong

Design inflow of Angat - exceeded

Flood due to Ondoy & Pepeng

1973 1978
1972
Flood disaster in Bulacan

1983

1986

1992

1993

2003

2004 2009

2011 2012-2013 2010-2012

GoJ: Upgrading of Bicol FFWS Norad: Magat FWSDO

Agno, Bicol & Cagayan River Basins FFWS

Binga / Ambuklao & Magat FFWSDO

San Roque FFWSDO

JICA-TCP: Upgrading of FFWSDO

EO 2011 Ipo telemetered FFWSDO - operational 2012 Caliraya FFWSDO will be operational

Upgraded FFWS: Pampanga & Agno river basins

Challenges, opportunities & WAY FORWARD

1. Establishment of FFWS Centers (buildings) in the other 13 major river basins in the country 2. Installation of 1000 monitoring stations (rainfall and water level gauges all the major river and principal river basins 3. Implementation on FEWS projects (local and foreign funded) 4. Enhancement of flood forecasts showing the extent or limits of inundation NOAH program (DOST) 5. Continue flood hazard mapping activities

Key to flood risk mitigation

Lesson from the MM flood in Sep 2009: The key to better planning and reconstruction efforts is to recognize that flooding in the has become conditional. It depends on land use conditions, urbanization and climate variability and change. - Nilo & Espinueva, 2009 Essentially, the involvement of the local government units and the communities at risk is critical in any flood risk mitigating measure.

www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

The source of man's unhappiness is his ignorance of Nature.

- Paul Henry Thiry d'Holbach