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Roberto Mendoza Hernndez Monetary Policy and Theory

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August 12th 2013 Mensual Monetary Inform (July 2013) - BCRA 1. Sntesis En julio, los depsitos a plazo fijo en pesos del sector privado acumularon un aumento mensual rcord, que alcanz a $10.500 millones, conformado tanto por las colocaciones de $1 milln y ms como por depsitos minoristas (de menos de $1 milln). De este modo, el ritmo de crecimiento interanual de los depsitos a plazo del sector privado continu ubicndose en niveles histricamente elevados. Al comparar el saldo promedio de julio con el que registraron un ao atrs, se observa que estas colocaciones acumularon un incremento de 44%. Como consecuencia del aumento observado en los plazos fijos y el aumento del circulante , el agregado monetario ms amplio en pesos (M3) creci 2,7% en el mes de julio. El circulante en poder del pblico estuvo asociado a factores de carcter estacional vinculados a las vacaciones de invierno y el cobro del medio salario anual complementario. Por su parte, los depsitos del sector privado tambin mostraron un muy buen desempeo. De esta forma, en los ltimos 12 meses el M3 acumul un aumento de 29,7%. El principal factor que explic el crecimiento mensual del M3 continu siendo el aumento de los prstamos en pesos al sector privado, que en julio alcanz a 3% ($11.670 millones), el mayor de los ltimos seis meses. As, estas financiaciones alcanzaron una variacin interanual del 39,3%. En sintona con lo sucedido aos anteriores, las lneas con destino esencialmente comercial fueron las que explicaron la mayor parte del incremento del mes. En efecto, las financiaciones instrumentadas mediante documentos y los adelantos realizaron las principales contribuciones al crecimiento del mes. De acuerdo a la ltima informacin disponible, correspondiente a junio, las financiaciones otorgadas bajo la forma de contratos de leasing incrementaron significativamente su tasa de variacin mensual, evidenciando en el mes un aumento de 6,1% ($470 millones), el mayor desde septiembre de 2011. En un contexto en que el crecimiento de los prstamos en pesos al sector privado super al de los depsitos en la misma moneda, se observ una disminucin del ratio de liquidez del segmento en pesos de las entidades (suma del efectivo en bancos, la cuenta corriente de las entidades en el Banco Central, los pases netos con tal entidad y la tenencia de LEBAC y NOBAC, en trminos del total de depsitos en pesos), que promedi 31,5%, 1,1 p.p. por debajo de junio. La disminucin se concentr en los activos de ms largo plazo (tenencia de LEBAC y NOBAC), cuya participacin respecto a los depsitos baj 0,6 p.p, y en las operaciones de pases, con una cada de su participacin del orden de los 0,3 p.p.. Esta disminucin se produce en un contexto general en el que la liquidez bancaria sigue siendo holgada. Las tasas de inters pagadas por las entidades financieras a los depositantes (pasivas) mostraron un leve aumento en julio. En efecto, la tasa de inters del total de nuevas operaciones a plazo en pesos promedi 14,95% en julio, aproximadamente 0,2 p.p. por encima de la correspondiente a junio. Las tasas de inters aplicadas sobre los prstamos en pesos al sector privado (activas) tambin mostraron leves aumentos en julio. En particular, en el caso de las tasa de los prstamos otorgados mediante documentos a sola firma y las correspondientes a los crditos con garanta real, los incrementos fueron el resultado de una base de comparacin reducida, debido a que en junio se registr una mayor concentracin de financiaciones otorgadas en el marco de la Lnea de Crdito para la Inversin Productiva que se otorgan a tasas de inters ms bajas y con plazos ms largos , como suele ocurrir durante los meses en que se produce el vencimiento de las etapas de esta lnea. En julio las emisiones en el mercado local de deuda corporativa totalizaron aproximadamente $2.500 millones, 8,5% por encima del mes previo. Este desempeo se produjo en un contexto donde la cantidad de colocaciones se increment, pasando de 10 emisiones en junio a 22 en julio; siendo la mayor parte denominadas en moneda local. Las emisiones de fideicomisos financieros marcaron un nuevo rcord (excluyendo las destinadas a financiar obras de infraestructura), al totalizar algo ms de $2.060 millones. Este monto represent un aumento cercano a 70% respecto al mes anterior. El importante monto emitido en el mes estuvo acompaado de un incremento en el nmero de operaciones, que alcanzaron a 22, frente a un promedio mensual de 17 operaciones en el primer semestre del ao.

August 13th 2013 - Circular a las instituciones bancarias sobre el Sistema de Integracin con Entes Externos (SINEX) - BCV El Banco Central de Venezuela de conformidad con lo dispuesto en el artculo 5 de la Resolucin N10-1002 del 26/10/2010, informa a las instituciones bancarias sujetas a la constitucin de encaje legal, que por motivos operacionales que inciden en el funcionamiento del "Sistema de Integracin con Entes Externos (SINEX)", se extiende hasta el 14/08/2013, en el horario comprendido de 8 a.m. hasta las 4 p.m., el plazo para la recepcin de la informacin necesaria para el clculo del encaje legal correspondiente a la semana base comprendida entre 05/08/2013 al 09/08/2013.

Caracas, 13 de agosto de 2013

Lus Alberto Laviosa Prato Vicepresidente de Operaciones Nacionales (E) August 15th 2013 - Barbados' successful maintenance of the exchange rate anchor lends credibility to economic policy. Central Bank of Barbados http://www.centralbank.org.bb/WEBCBB.nsf/vwNews/4241FED15AB4B06404257B9E0050E04A/$FILE/N ational%20Consultation_2013.v4.pdf August 14th 2013 - Monthly Financial Statement as of July 2013 Central Bank of Belize https://www.centralbank.org.bz/docs/default-source/fin-monthly-statements-4.3.1/monthly-financialstatement-as-of-july-2013.pdf?sfvrsn=2 August 14th 2013 - Financing in the Eurosystem (July 2013) Banco de Espaa http://www.bde.es/webbde/en/estadis/infoest/indeco.html#chapa_49 http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/estadis/infoest/e0801e.pdf August 8, 2013 Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy 1. At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period: The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen. 2. With regard to the asset purchases, the Bank will continue with the following guidelines: a) The Bank will purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs) so that their amount outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 50 trillion yen, and the average remaining maturity of the Bank's JGB purchases will be about seven years. b) The Bank will purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at an annual pace of about 1 trillion yen and about 30 billion yen respectively. c) As for CP and corporate bonds, the Bank will continue with those asset purchases until their amounts outstanding reach 2.2 trillion yen and 3.2 trillion yen respectively by end-2013; thereafter, it will maintain those amounts outstanding. 3. Japan's economy is starting to recover moderately. Overseas economies as a whole are gradually heading toward a pick-up, although a lackluster performance is partly seen. In this situation, exports have been picking up. Business fixed investment has stopped weakening and shown some signs of picking up as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has continued to increase, and the pick-up in housing investment has become evident. Private consumption has remained resilient, assisted by the improvement in consumer

sentiment. Reflecting these developments in demand both at home and abroad, industrial production is increasing moderately. Meanwhile, financial conditions are accommodative. On the price front, the year-onyear rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has turned positive. Inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole. 4. With regard to the outlook, Japan's economy is expected to recover moderately on the back of the resilience in domestic demand and the pick-up in overseas economies. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to rise gradually. 5. Regarding risks, there remains a high degree of uncertainty concerning Japan's economy, including the prospects for the European debt problem, developments in the emerging and commodity-exporting economies, and the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy. 6. The Bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner. It will examine both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, and make adjustments as appropriate. Such conduct of monetary policy will support the positive movements in economic activity and financial markets, contribute to a rise in inflation expectations, and lead Japan's economy to overcome the deflation that has lasted for nearly 15 years. Philippine monetary policy expected to remain accommodative MANILA -- In FXPRIMUS ASEAN Market Review for August 16, the brokerage firm focuses on positive catalysts for the Philippines economy. Capital outflow remains top challenge for economy, together with slowing China. The Philippine central bank will unlikely follow the Bank of Indonesia (BI) and apply tools to curb capital outflow. This means they are expected to keep the policy rate at a record low 3.5% in the first half of 2014. Recent data suggested that the Philippine economy benefited from its accommodative monetary policy while inflation pressure eased. The CPI in July lowered to 2.5% YoY from the earlier 2.8% in June, implying that financial stability risks shifted to a minimum level. Export data released a few days ago also suggested that manufacturers benefited by the Peso weakening. Exports expanded 4.3% YoY, the fastest pace this year. The Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. President Sergio Ortiz-Luis expects that the export growth target in 2013 will reach 10%, meaning that average export growth needs to hit at least 15%. The leading industry could be its garments sector, since orders are up by 100%. The peso extended its weakening against the Greenback since the middle of May. Officials should be satisfied with the exchange rate as long as it stays within the 42-44 levels. Hence, the current exchange level cheers the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), while inflation concern doesnt apply at this moment. Capital outflow remains top challenge for economy, together with slowing China Actual capital outflow remains the top challenge for the Philippine financial stability environment, said Jimmy Zhu, FXPRIMUS Senior Economist. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) rallied more than 270% since Federal Reserves (Fed) first round of mega stimulus in 2009, while the currency still appreciated against the Greenback more than 50% from then. A large percentage of these capitals is speculative and shortterm, which means the financial market will be extremely vulnerable to any external condition changes, such as the Feds policy adjustment, he said. Compared to its ASEAN neighbors, the Philippines advantage is the expansion of foreign ownership rights, aiming to increase foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the countrys priority is to boost its infrastructure investment, like China did in the past decade, said Mr. Zhu. Raising the policy rate doesnt solve the problem, the recent BIs tool is a great example, and it may slow growth in the end. The current FDI in the Philippines still lags behind its ASEAN neighbors, he said.

China is another threat to the Philippine economy, given the rising trade relationship between the two. With recent familiar topics, a successful reform in China will play a key role for the Philippines in a longer run. I also do not expect any impact in the near term, at least before 2016, said Mr. Zhu. August 13, 2013 Monetary Policy Committee Decision Introduction The August 13, 2013 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded that the medium-term outlook for inflation is positive and inflation is forecast to remain within the 3 6 percent objective range for the remainder of 2013. Economic Outlook and Assessment of Risks World output is projected to increase by 3.1 percent in 2013, unchanged from the estimate for 2012. Growth in economic activity in emerging markets is expected to slow down, although remaining stronger than in developed economies. Overall, the subdued global output expansion and restrained demand have so far contributed to moderate world inflation. In addition, the low capacity utilization and high unemployment rates in major economies continue to constrain global inflation. Gross Domestic Product expanded by 3.6 percent in the twelve months to March 2013, down from 6 percent for the corresponding period the previous year, reflecting an increase of 5.2 percent in non-mining GDP, together with a contraction of 6.1 percent in the mining sector. It is anticipated that non-mining GDP will remain below potential in the medium term and will not be inflationary. Furthermore, it is expected that the influence of demand on economic activity will be modest, largely reflecting trends in government expenditure and personal incomes. Inflation eased from 6.1 percent in May 2013 to 5.8 percent in June compared to 7.3 percent in June 2012 and was within the Banks objective range of 3 6 percent. The decrease in inflation in June 2013 was attributable to both the dissipation of base effects arising from the increase in administered prices in 2012 and a slowdown in the annual rate of price increase across a broad range of goods and services. Weak domestic demand and the forecast benign external inflationary pressures contribute to the positive inflation outlook in the medium term, with the potential for slowdown in inflation. However, this outlook could be negatively affected by any unanticipated large increase in administered prices and government levies, as well as international food and oil prices increasing beyond current forecasts. Monetary Policy Stance The current state of the economy, in which unemployment remains high, together with belowtrend economic activity, provides scope for monetary stimulus to spur stronger output growth. Assumptions on both the domestic and external economic outlook, as well as the inflation forecast, suggest that additional easing of the monetary policy stance is consistent with maintaining inflation within the Banks 3 6 percent objective range in the medium term. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee decided to reduce the Bank Rate by half a percent to 8 percent. Commercial banks are expected to make the necessary interest rate adjustments to reflect this policy decision.