CEE 3770 Homework 1 Due 8/30/13

Problem 1 An octahedral die (eight faces) has the number 1 painted on three of its faces, the number 3 painted on two of its faces, the number 8 painted on two of its faces, and the number 10 painted on one face. The die is rolled. Assume that each face is equally likely to come up. a. Find the sample space for this experiment. b. Find P(even number). c. If the die were loaded so that the face with the 10 on it were twice as likely to come up as each of the other seven faces, would this change the sample space? Explain. d. If the die were loaded so that the face with the 10 on it were twice as likely to come up as each of the other seven faces, would this change the value of P(even number)? Explain.

Problem 2 True or False: If A and B are mutually exclusive, a. b. c. d. ( ( ( ( ) ) ) )

( ) ( ) ( )

Use figures (such as Figures 2.2 and 2.3 in the text) to support your answer.

Problem 3 A cylindrical tank is used to store water for a town. On any given day, the water supply inflow per day may fill the tank with an additional 6, 7, or 8 ft of water. The daily demand or consumption of the water for the town will draw down the water level in the tank by an amount equivalent to 5, 6, or 7 ft of water in the tank. a. What are the possible combinations of inflow and outflow of water in the tank in a given day? b. If the water level in the tank is 20 ft from the bottom at the start of the day, what are the possible water levels in the tank at the end of the day? c. If the amounts of inflow and outflow of water for the tank are both equally likely, what would be the probability that there would be 19 ft of water or more remaining in the tank and the end of the day?

Problem 4 In a certain semester at a certain university, 1500 students enrolled in both Calculus I and Physics I. 500 As were given in the calculus course and 700 As were given in the physics course. 200 students got an A in both calculus and physics. Find the probability that a randomly chosen student a. b. c. d. got an A in at least one of the two courses. got less than an A in at least one of the two courses. got an A in calculus but not in physics. got an A in physics, but not in calculus.

Problem 5 An examination of the 10-year record of rainy days for a town reveals the following: 1. 10% of the days are rainy days 2. There is a 70% chance that a rainy day will be followed by another rainy day 3. There is a 30% chance that two consecutive rainy days will be followed by a third rainy day. A house is scheduled for painting starting next Monday for a period of 3 days. a. Let = Monday is a rainy day, = Tuesday is a rainy day, = Wednesday is a rainy day. Express the events corresponding to the three probabilities indicated above; i.e., 1, 2, 3, in terms of , , . b. What is the probability that it will rain on both Monday and Tuesday? c. What is the probability that Wednesday will be the only dry day during the period?

Problem 6 Go online to find a data set (google statistics data set and select anything available). Preferably, the variable you choose should be of practical interest to you (e.g. sports players salaries, gas prices (between stations in a city or between states), population of cities/countries). Use excel (or R for extra credit) to find the minimum, maximum, mean, median, standard deviation, median, and mode from the data set. Also, use your preferred software to make a histogram of the selected variable and comment on it. Problem 7 Using probability, explain why it is always better to switch doors, rather than keep your original door, when presented with the Monty Hall Problem.