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Zenith and Eclipse: A Comparative Look at Socio-Economic Conditions in Pre-Castro and Present Day Cuba 1/3/09 4:28 PM

Zenith and Eclipse: A Comparative Look at Socio-Economic Conditions in Pre-


Castro and Present Day Cuba
Released by the Bureau of Inter-American Affairs, February 9, 1998. Revised June 2002
SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION
An enduring myth is that 1950's Cuba was a socially and economically backward country whose development was
jump-started by the Castro government. In fact, according to readily available historical data, Cuba was a relatively
advanced country in 1958, certainly by Latin American standards and, in some areas, by world standards. The data show
that Cuba has at best maintained what were already high levels of development in health and education, but at an
extraordinary cost to the overall welfare of the Cuban people. These include access to "basics" such as adequate levels of
food and electricity, but also access to consumer goods, the availability of which have increased significantly in other Latin
American countries in recent decades.

In this study, the most recent data available has been used. Castro does not allow regular surveys on certain
Cuban topics that would ultimately reflect the continuing steady decline of the Cuban economy. Therefore, the data
provided is not as current as that which would be used in ideal circumstances.

It is true that Cuba's infant mortality rate is the second best in Latin America today, but it was the best in Latin
America -- and the 13th lowest in the world -- in pre-Castro Cuba. Cuba also has improved the literacy of its people, but
Cuba had an excellent educational system and impressive literacy rates in the 1950's.

On the other hand, many economic and social indicators have declined since the 1959 revolution. Pre-Castro
Cuba ranked third in Latin America in per capita food consumption but ranked last out of the 11 countries analyzed in
terms of percent of increase since 1957. Overall, Cuban per capita food consumption from 1954-1997 has decreased by
11.47 percent [1]. Per capita consumption of cereals, tubers, and meat are today all below 1950's levels[2]. The number
of automobiles in Cuba has fallen since the 1950's[3] -- the only country in Latin America for which this is the case. The
number of telephone lines in Cuba also has been virtually frozen at 1950's levels[4]. Cuba once ranked first in Latin
America and fifth in the world in television sets per capita. In 1996 it barely ranked ninth[5] in Latin America and is well
back in the ranks globally.

Cuba's rate of development of electrical power since the 1950's also ranks behind every other country in Latin
America including Haiti[6]. Cuba’s rice production has finally seen a minor increase above the 1950s levels. By virtually
any measure of macroeconomic stability, Cuba was progressing at a far greater rate in 1958 than it is today. Finally, the
Castro government shut down what was a remarkably vibrant media sector in the 1950's, when the relatively small country
had 58 daily newspapers of differing political hues and ranked eighth in the world in number of radio stations.

METHODOLOGY

This paper, an updated version of the original, assesses Cuba's level of development across a variety of
economic and social indicators during the revolutionary period (1959-present), especially relative to that of other countries
during the same period. It relies most extensively on UN data, particularly from the Statistical Yearbook and Demographic
Yearbook, which are considered the standard data compendiums in the development field. Trade data is derived from the
IMF's Direction of Trade Statistics, which provides a consistent data series dating back to the 1950's. For the various
international comparisons and rankings listed below, only those countries acquiring independence prior to 1958 and having
relatively consistent data available for the period 1955-present have been included. (The former stipulation excludes many
highly developed Caribbean countries from consideration.) In many cases data is the most current available for Cuba since
the Government of Cuba no longer allows these surveys to be done.

HEALTH

The health care system is often touted by many analysts as one of the Castro government's greatest
achievements. What this analysis ignores is that the revolutionary government inherited an already-advanced health
sector when it took power in 1959.

Cuba's infant mortality rate of 32 per 1,000 live births in 1957 was the lowest in Latin America and the 13th lowest
in the world, according to UN data. Cuba ranked ahead of France, Belgium, West Germany, Israel, Japan, Austria, Italy,
and Spain, all of which would eventually pass Cuba in this indicator during the following decades[7].

Cuba’s comparative world ranking according to data in Table 1 has fallen from 13th to last out of the 25 countries
examined. Also missing from the conventional analysis of Cuba's infant mortality rates is its staggering abortion rate of
77.7 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in 1996[8] -- which, because of selective termination of "high-risk"
pregnancies, yields lower numbers for infant mortality. Cuba's abortion rate was the 3rd highest out of the 60 countries
studied.

In terms of physicians and dentists per capita, Cuba in 1957 ranked third in Latin America, behind only Uruguay
and Argentina -- both of which were more advanced than the United States in this measure. Cuba's 128 physicians and
dentists per 100,000 people in 1957 was the same as the Netherlands, and ahead of the United Kingdom (122 per
100,000 people) and Finland (96).

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Unfortunately, the UN statistical yearbook no longer publishes these statistics, so more recent comparisons are
not possible, but it is completely erroneous to characterize pre-Revolutionary Cuba as backward in terms of healthcare.

EDUCATION

Cuba has been among the most literate countries in Latin America since well before the Castro revolution, when it
ranked fourth. Since then, Cuba has increased its literacy rate from 76 to 96 percent and is tied today for second place
with Chile and Costa Rica[9]. Argentina is the most literate country in Latin America. This improvement is impressive, but
not unique, among Latin American countries. Panama, Paraguay, Colombia, Brazil, El Salvador, Dominican Republic,
Ecuador, and Haiti -- which all ranked just behind Cuba in this indicator during the 1950's – have equaled or bettered
Cuba's improvement when measured in percentage terms[10].

TABLE 1 INFANT MORTALITY:

(DEATHS PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS)


__________________________________________________________________________________________
1957 1995-2000 % OF DECREASE
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Cuba 32 9 -71.9%
Portugal 88 9 -89.8%
Greece 44 8 -81.8%
Israel 39 8 -79.5%
United States 26 7 -73%
New Zealand 24 7 -70.8%
Spain 53 7 -86.8%
Italy 50 7 -86%
Belgium 36 7 -80.6%
Denmark 23 7 -69.6%
United Kingdom 24 7 -70.8%
Ireland 33 7 -78.8%
Luxembourg 39 7 -82%
France 34 6 -82.4%
Austria 44 6 -86.4%
Australia 21 6 -71.4%
Canada 31 6 -80.7%
Netherlands 18 6 -66.7%
Finland 28 6 -78.6%
Switzerland 23 6 -73.9%
Germany 36 5 -86.1%
Norway 21 5 -76.2%
Sweden 18 5 -72.2%
Iceland 16 5 -68.8%
Japan 40 4 -90%
__________________________________________________________________________________________
SOURCE: UN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 1979, NEW YORK, 1979
pg. 67-188; UN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 2000, NEW YORK,
2000, pg. 85-91.
a. FOR 1957, INCLUDES ONLY THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF
GERMANY.

TABLE 2 LATIN AMERICAN LITERACY RATES

(PERCENT)
__________________________________________________________________________________ _________

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LATEST AVAIL. 2000 % INCREASE


DATA FOR
1950-53

Argentina 87 97 11.5%
Cuba 76 96 26.3%
Chile 81 96 18.5%
Costa Rica 79 96 21.5%
Paraguay 68 93 36.8%
Colombia 62 92 48.4%
Panama 72 92 27.8%
Ecuador 56 92 64.3%
Brazil 49 85 73.5%
Dominican Republic 43 84 95.3%
El Salvador 42 79 88.1%
Guatemala 30 69 130%
Haiti 11 49 345.5%
________________________________________________________________________________________
SOURCE: UN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 1957, pp. 600-602; UN STATISTICAL YEARBOOK 2000, pp. 76-82.

a. DATA FOR 1950-53 ARE AGE 10 AND OVER. DATA FOR 1995 ARE AGE 15 AND OVER, REFLECTING
A CHANGE IN COMMON USAGE OVER THIS PERIOD.
b. DATA FOR ARGENTINA 1950-53 IS CURRENT AS 1947 DATA, THE LATEST AVAILABLE, AND REFLECTS
AGES 14 AND OVER.
c. DATA FOR 2000 ARE AGE 15 AND OVER.

CONSUMPTION

Rationing has been a staple of Cuban life since the early 1960's. During the early 1990's, Cuba's food
consumption deteriorated sharply, when massive amounts of Soviet aid were withdrawn. On its own, without Soviet
largesse and abundant food imports, Cuban agriculture was paralyzed by a scarcity of inputs and poor production
incentives resulting from collectivism and the lack of appropriate price signals. In pre-Castro Cuba, by contrast, food
supplies were abundant. The 1960 UN Statistical yearbook ranked pre-Revolutionary Cuba third out of 11 Latin American
countries in per capita daily caloric consumption. This was in spite of the fact that the latest available food consumption
data for Cuba at the time was from 1948-49, almost a decade before the other Latin American countries' data being used
in the comparison. Looking at the same group of 11 countries today, Cuba ranks last overall in per capita daily caloric
consumption increase, according to the most recent data available from the UN FAO. Indeed, the data show Cuba with a
poorer food supply situation than all the other Latin American countries save for Venezuela and Honduras[11].

A closer look at the latest available data on some basic food groups reveals that Cubans now have less access
to cereals, tubers, and meats than they had in the late 1940's. According to 1995 UN FAO data, Cuba's per capita supply
of cereals has fallen from 106 kg per year in the late 1940's to 100 kg half a century later. Per capita supply of tubers and
roots shows an even steeper decline, from 91 kg per year to 56 kg. Meat supplies have fallen from 33 kg per year to 23 kg
per year, measured on a per capita basis.

TABLE 3 LATIN AMERICA: PER CAPITA

FOOR CONSUMPTION (CALORIES PER DAY)


_________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST DATA 1995-97 % INCREASE
AVAILABLE FOR
1954-57
_________________________________________________________________________________
Mexico 2,420 3,108 28.4%
Argentina 3,100 3,113 0.4%
Brazil 2,540 2,933 15.5%
Uruguay 2,960 2,796 -5.5%
Chile 2,330 2,774 19.1%
Colombia 2,050 2,591 26.4%
Ecuador 2,130 2,660 24.9%
Paraguay 2,690 2,570 -4.5%
Venezuela 1,960 2,388 21.8%
Honduras 2,260 2,366 4.7%

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Cuba 2,730 2,417 -11.5%


_________________________________________________________________________________
SOURCE: UN FAO YEARBOOK 1960, pp. 312-316; UN FAO YEARBOOK 2000, pp. 102-103.
a. LATEST 1954-57 AVAILABLE DATA FOR CUBA IS ACTUALLY FOR 1948-49.

Although some would blame Cuba's food problems on the U.S. embargo, the facts suggest that the food
shortages are a function of an inefficient collectivized agricultural system -- and a scarcity of foreign exchange resulting
from Castro's unwillingness to liberalize Cuba's economy, diversify its export base, and its need to pay off debts owed to its
Japanese, European, and Latin American trading partners acquired during the years of abundant Soviet aid. This foreign
exchange shortage has severely limited Cuba's ability to purchase readily available food supplies from Canada, Latin
America, and Europe. The U.S. embargo has added, at most, relatively small increases in transportation costs by forcing
Cuba to import food from non - U.S. sources elsewhere in the hemisphere.

The statistics on the consumption of nonfood items tell a similar story. The number of automobiles in Cuba per
capita has actually fallen since the 1950's, the only country in the hemisphere for which this is the case. (Unfortunately, due
to Castro’s unwillingness to publish unfavorable data, the latest available data for Cuba are from 1988.) UN data show that
the number of automobiles per capita in Cuba declined slightly between 1958 and 1988, whereas virtually every other
country in the region -- with the possible exception of Nicaragua -- experienced very significant increases in this indicator.
Within Latin America, Cuba ranked second only to Venezuela in 1958, but by 1988, had dropped to ninth.

The 1988 data on automobiles also reveal that countries in Asia and Europe that once ranked far behind Cuba in
this measure have since surpassed Cuba by a wide margin. Japan, with four cars per 1,000 inhabitants in 1958, was far
behind Cuba (24) that year, but by 1988, Japan's number had grown to 251, whereas the figure for Cuba remained frozen
at its 1958 level. Similar comments could be made for Portugal (increased from 15 in 1958 to 216 in 1988), Spain
(increased from six to 278), and Greece (increased from four to 150). Indeed, Italy's 29 cars per capita was not far ahead
of Cuba's 24 in 1958, but by 1988, Italy boasted 440 cars per capita, whereas the figure for Cuba was unchanged from the
1950's.

TABLE 4 LATIN AMERICA: PASSENGER CARS PER CAPITA (A)


(CARS PER 1,OOO
INHABITANTS)
ANNUAL AVERAGE
1958 1988 GROWTH (PERCENT)

ARGENTINA 19 129 6.6


URUGUAY 22 114 5.3
VENEZUELA 27 94 4.3
BRAZIL 7 73 8.1
MEXICO 11 70 6.4
PANAMA 16 56 4.3
CHILE 7 52 6.9
COSTA RICA 13 47 4.4
CUBA 24 23 -0.1
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 3 23 7.3
COLOMBIA 6 21 4.3
PARAGUAY 3 20 6.5
PERU 7 18 3.1
ECUADOR 2 15 7
BOLIVIA 3 12 4.7
GUATEMALA 6 11 2
EL SALVADOR 7 10 1.2
NICARAGUA 7 8 0.5
HONDURAS 3 6 2.3

(A)- FOR MOST COUNTRIES, EXCLUDES POLICE AND MILITARY CARS.


(B)- EXCLUDES ALL GOVERNMENT CARS.
(C.)- INCLUDES POLICE CARS.
(D) - INCLUDES CARS NO LONGER IN USE.
(E)- 1957
(F)- 1956
(G)- 1987

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Telephones are another case in point. While every other country in the region has seen its teledensity increase at
least two fold -- and most have seen even greater improvements. Cuba has remained frozen at 1958 levels. In 1995,
Cuba had only 3 telephone lines per 100 people[12], placing it 16th out of 20 Latin American countries surveyed and far
behind countries that were less advanced than Cuba in this measure in 1958, such as Argentina (today 16 lines per 100
inhabitants), Costa Rica (16), Panama (11), Chile (13), and Venezuela (11). More recently, as a result of a joint venture
with an Italian firm, there has been considerable investment, but current data is still unavailable from standard sources.

Cuba also has not kept pace with the rest of Latin America in terms of radios per capita. During the late 1950's,
Cuba ranked second only to Uruguay in Latin America, with 169 radios per 1,000 people. (Worldwide, this put Cuba just
ahead of Japan.) At that time, Argentina and Cuba were very similar in terms of this measure. Since then, the number of
radios per capita for Argentina has grown three times as fast as for Cuba[13]. Cuba also has been surpassed by Bolivia,
Venezuela, El Salvador, Honduras, and Brazil in this indicator.

In terms of television sets per capita, 1950's Cuba was far ahead of the rest of Latin America and was among the world's
leaders. Cuba had 45 television sets per 1,000 inhabitants in 1957, by far the most in Latin America and fifth in the world,
behind only Monaco, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In fact, its closest competitor in Latin America
was Venezuela, which had only 16 television sets per 1,000 people. By 1997, Cuba had increased from 170 televisions to
239 per thousand, behind Mexico (272 per capita) and tying Uruguay for second place[14]. Of these two countries,
Uruguay in 1957 had fewer than one television per 1,000 people.

PRODUCTION

Post 1959 Cuba falls short in areas of industrial production once prioritized by Soviet client states, such as
electricity production. Although Cuba has never been a regional leader in public electricity production per capita, its
relative ranking among 20 Latin American countries has fallen from eighth to 11th during the Castro era. In fact, in terms of
the rate of growth of electricity production, in 1995 Cuba ranked 9th of 20 countries in the region.[15]

Cuba’s production of rice has just recently passed its 1958 levels, when it ranked fourth in the region in
production of this staple. Two of the countries ranking ahead of Cuba in rice production in 1958 – Venezuela and Bolivia –
have since seen their rice production grow by more than 28 fold through 2000. Cuba's Caribbean neighbor, the Dominican
Republic, has increased its rice production by five fold since 1958. Perhaps even more telling are Cuba's yields per
hectare in rice production. Whereas the Dominican Republic has increased rice yields from 2100 kg per hectare in 1958 to
5400 kg per hectare in 1996, Cuba's yields stagnated at 2500 kg per hectare, a negligible increase from the 2400 kg per
hectare registered in 1958, according to UN FAO data.

TABLE 5 LATIN AMERICA: RICE PRODUCTION


(1,000 METRIC TONS)
___________________________________________________________________________________
1958 2000 % INCREASE
___________________________________________________________________________________
Brazil 3,829 11,168 191.7%
Colombia 378 113 -70.1%
Ecuador 176 1,520 763.6%
Peru 285 1,665 484.1%
Argentina 217 858 295.4%
Uruguay 58 1,175 1925.9%
Venezuela 22 737 3250%
Dominican Republic 99 527 432.3%
Mexico 240 450 87.5%
Bolivia 11 310 2718.2%
Panama 86 319 271%
Cuba 261 369 41.3%
Nicaragua 33 285 764.5%
Costa Rica 34 264 677.1%
Chile 102 113 10.8%
Paraguay 20 93 365%
El Salvador 27 48 76.3%
Honduras 41 7 -82.2%
Guatemala 33 39 17.3%
___________________________________________________________________________________
SOURCE: UN FAO YEARBOOK 1961, p. 50;
UN FAO YEARBOOK 1999 LATIN AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THE CARRIBEAN
2000
a. 2000 FIGURES FOR VENEZUELA, CUBA, PARAGUAY AND GUATEMALA ARE
UNOFFICIAL ESTIMATES.

FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

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Cuba's exports have not kept pace with other countries of the region. Of the 20 countries in the region for which
comparable IMF data are available, Cuba ranks last in terms of export growth -- below even Haiti. Mexico and Cuba had
virtually identical export levels in 1958 -- while Mexico's population was five times Cuba's. Since then, Cuba's exports have
merely doubled while Mexico's have increased by almost 226 fold, according to IMF statistics for 2000. Cuba's exports in
1958 far exceeded those of Chile and Colombia, countries that have since left Cuba behind. The lack of diversification of
Cuba's exports over the past 35 years also is remarkable, when compared with other countries in the region.

Cuba's enviable productive base during the 1950's was strengthened by sizable inflows of foreign direct
investment. As of 1958, the value of U.S. foreign direct investment in Cuba was $861 million, according to United States
government figures published in 1959. Adjusting for inflation, those foreign investment number amounts to more than USD
3.6 billion in today's dollars.[16]

Contrary to popular perception, U.S. investors were not focusing on the sugar industry in the 1950's. U.S. firms
began to gradually sell their Cuban sugar holdings to Cuban firms beginning in 1935. By 1958, U.S. firms owned fewer
than 40 of Cuba's 161 mills. While U.S. firms were moving away from sugar, they were rapidly investing in a range of
other ventures, especially in infrastructure development. According to U.S. government statistics, 41 percent of U.S. direct
investments in Cuba were in utilities as of 1958.

Cuba also had a very favorable overall balance of payments situation during the 1950's, contrasted with the
tenuous situation today. In 1958, Cuba had gold and foreign exchange reserves -- a key measure of a healthy balance of
payments--totaling $387 million in 1958 dollars, according to IMF statistics. (That level of reserves would be worth more
than 3.6 billion USD in today's dollars.) Cuba's reserves were third in Latin America, behind only Venezuela and Brazil,
which was impressive for a small economy with a population of fewer than 7 million people. Unfortunately, Cuba no longer
publishes information on its foreign exchange and gold reserves.

TABLE 6 LATIN AMERICA: TOTAL EXPORTS


(MILLION USD)

1958 2000 INCREASE


(PERCENT)
Haiti 48 324 5.8
Panama 23 772 32.6
Nicaragua 71 941 12.3
Bolivia 65 1,098 15.9
Paraguay 34 1,099 31.3
Chile 389 1216 2.1
Dominican Republic 136 1,544 10.4
Cuba 732 1,544 1.1
Uruguay 139 2,295 15.5
El Salvador 116 2,973 24.6
Honduras 70 4,123 57.9
Guatemala 103 4,206 39.8
Ecuador 95 5,546 57.4
Peru 291 6,920 22.8
Costa Rica 92 7,729 83
Colombia 461 13,115 27.4
Argentina 994 26,663 25.8
Venezuela 2319 34,038 13.7
Brazil 1243 56,138 44.2
Mexico 736 166,455 225.2

SOURCE: IMF DIRECTION OF TRADE


STATISTICS

MASS MEDIA

It is no exaggeration to state that during the 1950's, the Cuban people were among the most informed in the
world, living in an uncharacteristically large media market for such a small country. Cubans had a choice of 58 daily
newspapers during the late 1950's, according to the UN statistical yearbook. Despite its small size, this placed Cuba
behind only Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico in the region. By 1992, government controls had reduced the number of dailies
to only 17.

There has also been a reduction in the number of radio and television broadcasting stations, although the UN no
longer reports these statistics. However, it should be noted that in 1957, Cuba had more television stations (23) than any
other country in Latin America, easily outdistancing larger countries such as Mexico (12 television stations) and Venezuela
(10). It also led Latin America and ranked eighth in the world in number of radio stations (160), ahead of such countries as
Austria (83 radio stations), United Kingdom (62), and France (50), according to the UN statistical yearbook.

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[End of Document]

[1] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000, pg. 102-103.

[2] FAO Production Yearbook 1998, vol. 52

[3] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000

[4] Statistical Abstract of Latin America 2000 vol. 36

[5] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000, pg. 131-133.

[6] Statistical Abstract of Latin America 2000, vol. 36, pg. 523-562

[7] http://www.photius.com/wfb1999/rankings/infant_mortality-0.html

[8] http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/25s3099.html

[9] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000, pg. 76-82.

[10] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000. pg. 76-82.

[11] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000, pg. 102-103.

[12] Statistical Abstract of Latin America 2000, vol. 36, pg. 64.

[13] Statistical Abstract of Latin America 2000, vol. 36, pg. 66.

[14] UN Statistical Yearbook 2000, pg. 132-133.

[15] Statistical Abstract of Latin America 2000, pg.523

[16] Based on a Producer Price Index (1980=100)

Published by the U.S. Department of State Website at http://www.state.gov maintained by the Bureau of Public Affairs.

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