REGRESIONESs

Periodo
MILLONES
MILLONES
MILES
MILES DE MILLONES91 DIAS
MILLONES
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
REMESAS
PIB MX
PIB USA
CETES
FBKF (I)
192,837,110
IED
1995/01
1982.817
789.996
5826003719
7,307.7
49.060
1995/02
2913.607
1009.023
5600037018
7,355.8
57.623
168,422,639
1995/03
2254.719
1019.322
5691934606
7,452.5
36.640
166,820,749
189,687,703
1995/04
2375.157
854.383
5962216993
7,542.5
47.817
1996/01
2027.668
932.753
5891226773
7,638.2
41.767
185,432,161
1996/02
1779.942
1172.174
5955682235
7,800.0
32.583
197,745,367
210,697,803
1996/03
2004.378
1098.989
6073486667
7,892.7
29.537
1996/04
3373.463
1019.762
6427559423
8,023.0
27.710
241,566,662
220,498,277
1997/01
2109.241
1052.148
6152807218
8,137.0
22.973
1997/02
2594.518
1365.788
6492761735
8,276.8
21.453
247,478,806
1997/03
5594.98
1302.056
6569860091
8,409.9
20.057
258,623,431
284,589,118
1997/04
2530.817
1144.854
6898432227
8,505.7
20.600
1998/01
2620.8186
1176.124
6665227031
8,600.6
19.923
269,835,103
1998/02
3477.683
1463.858
6779735047
8,698.6
19.770
273,742,257
283,560,167
1998/03
3295.1097
1457.224
6891651789
8,847.2
29.357
1998/04
3313.5336
1529.638
7072200643
9,027.5
35.713
288,013,581
1999/01
3525.6642
1253.389
6833076833
9,148.6
28.283
285,559,164
1999/02
3395.7421
1562.666
6997209329
9,252.6
21.140
295,524,329
1999/03
3018.3991
1529.341
7148246491
9,405.1
21.203
302,973,686
317,057,090
1999/04
3929.7862
1564.236
7410151130
9,607.7
18.877
2000/01
4520.7958
1397.861
7298852761
9,709.5
16.110
320,950,349
2000/02
4764.975
1631.147
7467037675
9,949.1
15.520
331,376,757
339,393,951
2000/03
3031.3497
1734.153
7604284603
10,017.5
15.493
2000/04
5781.0621
1809.382
7711444345
10,129.8
17.493
345,811,675
2001/01
3538.7528
2010.711
7310622304
10,165.1
17.680
322,640,696
314,087,285
2001/02
5138.3226
2280.887
7424984882
10,301.3
12.760
2001/03
16268.283
2357.981
7483060755
10,305.2
9.890
310,390,102
315,008,668
2001/04
4828.8116
2245.684
7576346882
10,373.1
8.633
2002/01
5008.7086
2174.435
7110694282
10,498.7
7.610
302,159,944
2002/02
6067.5055
2578.08
7523677198
10,601.9
6.860
324,733,600
310,071,582
2002/03
6087.7807
2552.8111
7517032580
10,701.7
7.590
2002/04
6472.2487
2509.122
7670055408
10,766.9
7.777
317,103,966
2003/01
3904.4675
3170.1267
7367050447
10,887.4
8.890
307,126,688
313,955,391
2003/02
5426.8043
3904.6473
7539706233
11,011.6
6.373
2003/03
2929.2677
4128.1167
7535289460
11,255.1
5.193
315,985,455
2003/04
4318.073
3935.7957
7781167392
11,414.8
5.597
321,629,474
2004/01
9122.7049
3733.8612
7620258155
11,589.9
5.650
320,667,476
2004/02
4052.2383
4968.6377
7823421276
11,762.9
6.767
332,238,051
343,690,009
2004/03
3096.272
5028.0246
7871310096
11,936.3
7.517
2004/04
7539.2968
4601.2245
8133297810
12,123.9
8.470
356,551,888
2005/01
6287.8145
4487.5229
7773298608
12,361.8
9.263
341,655,239
360,377,458
2005/02
5854.4909
5733.8606
8117334064
12,500.0
9.893
2005/03
5295.1793
5785.514
8141697897
12,728.6
9.523
367,570,597
2005/04
4913.9955
5681.3734
8424010420
12,901.4
8.637
386,750,005
UNIDAD %
inflacion
15.349814
15.95499468
5.725901285
5.162660412
14.80059151
5.086911584
2.891631764
3.230151051
12.43545244
1.563871019
1.123550958
1.510507696
10.59043636
1.414042674
1.550286809
3.223963453
11.56379789
0.793891448
0.345943495
0.762120911
8.473298991
-0.123189665
-0.130000842
0.660207015
7.022550425
-0.662903584
-0.962910178
-0.063343584
6.536769379
-0.63608493
-0.512402832
0.024322903
6.634777958
-1.296168524
-1.148752452
-0.067788481
6.992872665
-1.3293287
-0.672167033
0.455620164
6.039053452
-1.224975725
-1.182860465
-0.388266472
MILLONES
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
Periodo
REMESAS
inflacion
MILES
MILES DE MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
IED
1995/01
789.996
15.349814
5826003719
7,307.7
1982.817
1995/02
1009.023
15.95499468
5600037018
7,355.8
2913.607
1995/03
1019.322
5.725901285
5691934606
7,452.5
2254.719
1995/04
854.383
5.162660412
5962216993
7,542.5
2375.157
1996/01
932.753
14.80059151
5891226773
7,638.2
2027.668
1996/02
1172.174
5.086911584
5955682235
7,800.0
1779.942
1996/03
1098.989
2.891631764
6073486667
7,892.7
2004.378
1996/04
1019.762
3.230151051
6427559423
8,023.0
3373.463
1997/01
1052.148
12.43545244
6152807218
8,137.0
2109.241
1997/02
1365.788
1.563871019
6492761735
8,276.8
2594.518
1997/03
1302.056
1.123550958
6569860091
8,409.9
5594.98
1997/04
1144.854
1.510507696
6898432227
8,505.7
2530.817
1998/01
1176.124
10.59043636
6665227031
8,600.6
2620.8186
1998/02
1463.858
1.414042674
6779735047
8,698.6
3477.683
1998/03
1457.224
1.550286809
6891651789
8,847.2
3295.1097
1998/04
1529.638
3.223963453
7072200643
9,027.5
3313.5336
1999/01
1253.389
11.56379789
6833076833
9,148.6
3525.6642
1999/02
1562.666
0.793891448
6997209329
9,252.6
3395.7421
1999/03
1529.341
0.345943495
7148246491
9,405.1
3018.3991
1999/04
1564.236
0.762120911
7410151130
9,607.7
3929.7862
2000/01
1397.861
8.473298991
7298852761
9,709.5
4520.7958
2000/02
1631.147
-0.123189665
7467037675
9,949.1
4764.975
2000/03
1734.153
-0.130000842
7604284603
10,017.5
3031.3497
2000/04
1809.382
0.660207015
7711444345
10,129.8
5781.0621
2001/01
2010.711
7.022550425
7310622304
10,165.1
3538.7528
2001/02
2280.887
-0.662903584
7424984882
10,301.3
5138.3226
2001/03
2357.981
-0.962910178
7483060755
10,305.2
16268.283
2001/04
2245.684
-0.063343584
7576346882
10,373.1
4828.8116
2002/01
2174.435
6.536769379
7110694282
10,498.7
5008.7086
2002/02
2578.08
-0.63608493
7523677198
10,601.9
6067.5055
2002/03
2552.8111
-0.512402832
7517032580
10,701.7
6087.7807
2002/04
2509.122
0.024322903
7670055408
10,766.9
6472.2487
2003/01
3170.1267
6.634777958
7367050447
10,887.4
3904.4675
2003/02
3904.6473
-1.296168524
7539706233
11,011.6
5426.8043
2003/03
4128.1167
-1.148752452
7535289460
11,255.1
2929.2677
2003/04
3935.7957
-0.067788481
7781167392
11,414.8
4318.073
2004/01
3733.8612
6.992872665
7620258155
11,589.9
9122.7049
2004/02
4968.6377
-1.3293287
7823421276
11,762.9
4052.2383
2004/03
5028.0246
-0.672167033
7871310096
11,936.3
3096.272
2004/04
4601.2245
0.455620164
8133297810
12,123.9
7539.2968
2005/01
4487.5229
6.039053452
7773298608
12,361.8
6287.8145
2005/02
5733.8606
-1.224975725
8117334064
12,500.0
5854.4909
2005/03
5785.514
-1.182860465
8141697897
12,728.6
5295.1793
2005/04
5681.3734
-0.388266472
8424010420
12,901.4
4913.9955
R2 DE INFLACION
UNIDAD %
Periodo
inflacion
MILES
MILES DE MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
IED
1995/01
15.349814
5826003719
7,307.7
1982.817
1995/02
15.95499468
5600037018
7,355.8
2913.607
1995/03
5.725901285
5691934606
7,452.5
2254.719
1995/04
5.162660412
5962216993
7,542.5
2375.157
1996/01
14.80059151
5891226773
7,638.2
2027.668
1996/02
5.086911584
5955682235
7,800.0
1779.942
1996/03
2.891631764
6073486667
7,892.7
2004.378
1996/04
3.230151051
6427559423
8,023.0
3373.463
1997/01
12.43545244
6152807218
8,137.0
2109.241
1997/02
1.563871019
6492761735
8,276.8
2594.518
Estadsticas de la
1997/03
1.123550958
6569860091
8,409.9
5594.98
1997/04
1.510507696
6898432227
8,505.7
2530.817
1998/01
10.59043636
6665227031
8,600.6
2620.8186
1998/02
1.414042674
6779735047
8,698.6
3477.683
1998/03
1.550286809
6891651789
8,847.2
3295.1097
1998/04
3.223963453
7072200643
9,027.5
3313.5336
1999/01
11.56379789
6833076833
9,148.6
3525.6642
1999/02
0.793891448
6997209329
9,252.6
3395.7421
1999/03
0.345943495
7148246491
9,405.1
3018.3991
1999/04
0.762120911
7410151130
9,607.7
3929.7862
2000/01
8.473298991
7298852761
9,709.5
4520.7958
2000/02
-0.123189665
7467037675
9,949.1
4764.975
2000/03
-0.130000842
7604284603
10,017.5
3031.3497
2000/04
0.660207015
7711444345
10,129.8
5781.0621
2001/01
7.022550425
7310622304
10,165.1
3538.7528
2001/02
-0.662903584
7424984882
10,301.3
5138.3226
2001/03
-0.962910178
7483060755
10,305.2
16268.283
2001/04
-0.063343584
7576346882
10,373.1
4828.8116
2002/01
6.536769379
7110694282
10,498.7
5008.7086
2002/02
-0.63608493
7523677198
10,601.9
6067.5055
2002/03
-0.512402832
7517032580
10,701.7
6087.7807
2002/04
0.024322903
7670055408
10,766.9
6472.2487
2003/01
6.634777958
7367050447
10,887.4
3904.4675
2003/02
-1.296168524
7539706233
11,011.6
5426.8043
2003/03
-1.148752452
7535289460
11,255.1
2929.2677
2003/04
-0.067788481
7781167392
11,414.8
4318.073
2004/01
6.992872665
7620258155
11,589.9
9122.7049
2004/02
-1.3293287
7823421276
11,762.9
4052.2383
2004/03
-0.672167033
7871310096
11,936.3
3096.272
2004/04
0.455620164
8133297810
12,123.9
7539.2968
2005/01
6.039053452
7773298608
12,361.8
6287.8145
2005/02
-1.224975725
8117334064
12,500.0
5854.4909
2005/03
-1.182860465
8141697897
12,728.6
5295.1793
2005/04
-0.388266472
8424010420
12,901.4
4913.9955
PIB DE
MEXICO
Periodo
MILES
MILES DE MILLONESMILLONES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
IED
inflacion
1995/01
5826003719
7,307.7
1982.817
15.349814
1995/02
5600037018
7,355.8
2913.607
15.95499468
1995/03
5691934606
7,452.5
2254.719
5.725901285
1995/04
5962216993
7,542.5
2375.157
5.162660412
Estadsticas de la
1996/01
5891226773
7,638.2
2027.668
14.80059151
1996/02
5955682235
7,800.0
1779.942
5.086911584
1996/03
6073486667
7,892.7
2004.378
2.891631764
1996/04
6427559423
8,023.0
3373.463
3.230151051
1997/01
6152807218
8,137.0
2109.241
12.43545244
1997/02
6492761735
8,276.8
2594.518
1.563871019
1997/03
6569860091
8,409.9
5594.98
1.123550958
1997/04
6898432227
8,505.7
2530.817
1.510507696
1998/01
6665227031
8,600.6
2620.8186
10.59043636
1998/02
6779735047
8,698.6
3477.683
1.414042674
1998/03
6891651789
8,847.2
3295.1097
1.550286809
1998/04
7072200643
9,027.5
3313.5336
3.223963453
1999/01
6833076833
9,148.6
3525.6642
11.56379789
1999/02
6997209329
9,252.6
3395.7421
0.793891448
1999/03
7148246491
9,405.1
3018.3991
0.345943495
1999/04
7410151130
9,607.7
3929.7862
0.762120911
2000/01
7298852761
9,709.5
4520.7958
8.473298991
2000/02
7467037675
9,949.1
4764.975
-0.123189665
2000/03
7604284603
10,017.5
3031.3497
-0.130000842
2000/04
7711444345
10,129.8
5781.0621
0.660207015
2001/01
7310622304
10,165.1
3538.7528
7.022550425
2001/02
7424984882
10,301.3
5138.3226
-0.662903584
2001/03
7483060755
10,305.2
16268.283
-0.962910178
2001/04
7576346882
10,373.1
4828.8116
-0.063343584
2002/01
7110694282
10,498.7
5008.7086
6.536769379
2002/02
7523677198
10,601.9
6067.5055
-0.63608493
2002/03
7517032580
10,701.7
6087.7807
-0.512402832
2002/04
7670055408
10,766.9
6472.2487
0.024322903
2003/01
7367050447
10,887.4
3904.4675
6.634777958
2003/02
7539706233
11,011.6
5426.8043
-1.296168524
2003/03
7535289460
11,255.1
2929.2677
-1.148752452
2003/04
7781167392
11,414.8
4318.073
-0.067788481
2004/01
7620258155
11,589.9
9122.7049
6.992872665
2004/02
7823421276
11,762.9
4052.2383
-1.3293287
2004/03
7871310096
11,936.3
3096.272
-0.672167033
2004/04
8133297810
12,123.9
7539.2968
0.455620164
2005/01
7773298608
12,361.8
6287.8145
6.039053452
2005/02
8117334064
12,500.0
5854.4909
-1.224975725
2005/03
8141697897
12,728.6
5295.1793
-1.182860465
2005/04
8424010420
12,901.4
4913.9955
-0.388266472
PIB USA
DE DOLARES
Periodo
PIB USA
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
IED
MILES
DE PESOS
inflacion
Estadsticas de la
PIB MX
1995/01
7,307.7
1982.817
15.349814
5826003719
1995/02
7,355.8
2913.607
15.95499468
5600037018
1995/03
7,452.5
2254.719
5.725901285
5691934606
1995/04
7,542.5
2375.157
5.162660412
5962216993
1996/01
7,638.2
2027.668
14.80059151
5891226773
1996/02
7,800.0
1779.942
5.086911584
5955682235
1996/03
7,892.7
2004.378
2.891631764
6073486667
1996/04
8,023.0
3373.463
3.230151051
6427559423
1997/01
8,137.0
2109.241
12.43545244
6152807218
1997/02
8,276.8
2594.518
1.563871019
6492761735
1997/03
8,409.9
5594.98
1.123550958
6569860091
1997/04
8,505.7
2530.817
1.510507696
6898432227
1998/01
8,600.6
2620.8186
10.59043636
6665227031
1998/02
8,698.6
3477.683
1.414042674
6779735047
1998/03
8,847.2
3295.1097
1.550286809
6891651789
1998/04
9,027.5
3313.5336
3.223963453
7072200643
1999/01
9,148.6
3525.6642
11.56379789
6833076833
1999/02
9,252.6
3395.7421
0.793891448
6997209329
1999/03
9,405.1
3018.3991
0.345943495
7148246491
1999/04
9,607.7
3929.7862
0.762120911
7410151130
2000/01
9,709.5
4520.7958
8.473298991
7298852761
2000/02
9,949.1
4764.975
-0.123189665
7467037675
2000/03
10,017.5
3031.3497
-0.130000842
7604284603
2000/04
10,129.8
5781.0621
0.660207015
7711444345
2001/01
10,165.1
3538.7528
7.022550425
7310622304
2001/02
10,301.3
5138.3226
-0.662903584
7424984882
2001/03
10,305.2
16268.283
-0.962910178
7483060755
2001/04
10,373.1
4828.8116
-0.063343584
7576346882
2002/01
10,498.7
5008.7086
6.536769379
7110694282
2002/02
10,601.9
6067.5055
-0.63608493
7523677198
2002/03
10,701.7
6087.7807
-0.512402832
7517032580
2002/04
10,766.9
6472.2487
0.024322903
7670055408
2003/01
10,887.4
3904.4675
6.634777958
7367050447
2003/02
11,011.6
5426.8043
-1.296168524
7539706233
2003/03
11,255.1
2929.2677
-1.148752452
7535289460
2003/04
11,414.8
4318.073
-0.067788481
7781167392
2004/01
11,589.9
9122.7049
6.992872665
7620258155
2004/02
11,762.9
4052.2383
-1.3293287
7823421276
2004/03
11,936.3
3096.272
-0.672167033
7871310096
2004/04
12,123.9
7539.2968
0.455620164
8133297810
2005/01
12,361.8
6287.8145
6.039053452
7773298608
2005/02
12,500.0
5854.4909
-1.224975725
8117334064
2005/03
12,728.6
5295.1793
-1.182860465
8141697897
2005/04
12,901.4
-0.388266472
4913.9955
8424010420
IED
MILLONES
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
MILES
MILES DE MILLONES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
Periodo
IED
1995/01
1982.817
15.349814
5826003719
7,307.7
1995/02
2913.607
15.95499468
5600037018
7,355.8
1995/03
2254.719
5.725901285
5691934606
7,452.5
1995/04
2375.157
5.162660412
5962216993
7,542.5
1996/01
2027.668
14.80059151
5891226773
7,638.2
1996/02
1779.942
5.086911584
5955682235
7,800.0
1996/03
2004.378
2.891631764
6073486667
7,892.7
1996/04
3373.463
3.230151051
6427559423
8,023.0
1997/01
2109.241
12.43545244
6152807218
8,137.0
1997/02
2594.518
1.563871019
6492761735
8,276.8
1997/03
5594.98
1.123550958
6569860091
8,409.9
1997/04
2530.817
1.510507696
6898432227
8,505.7
1998/01
2620.8186
10.59043636
6665227031
8,600.6
1998/02
3477.683
1.414042674
6779735047
8,698.6
1998/03
3295.1097
1.550286809
6891651789
8,847.2
1998/04
3313.5336
3.223963453
7072200643
9,027.5
1999/01
3525.6642
11.56379789
6833076833
9,148.6
1999/02
3395.7421
0.793891448
6997209329
9,252.6
1999/03
3018.3991
0.345943495
7148246491
9,405.1
1999/04
3929.7862
0.762120911
7410151130
9,607.7
2000/01
4520.7958
8.473298991
7298852761
9,709.5
2000/02
4764.975
-0.123189665
7467037675
9,949.1
2000/03
3031.3497
-0.130000842
7604284603
10,017.5
2000/04
5781.0621
0.660207015
7711444345
10,129.8
2001/01
3538.7528
7.022550425
7310622304
10,165.1
2001/02
5138.3226
-0.662903584
7424984882
10,301.3
2001/03
16268.283
-0.962910178
7483060755
10,305.2
2001/04
4828.8116
-0.063343584
7576346882
10,373.1
2002/01
5008.7086
6.536769379
7110694282
10,498.7
2002/02
6067.5055
-0.63608493
7523677198
10,601.9
2002/03
6087.7807
-0.512402832
7517032580
10,701.7
2002/04
6472.2487
0.024322903
7670055408
10,766.9
2003/01
3904.4675
6.634777958
7367050447
10,887.4
inflacion
Estadsticas de la
2003/02
5426.8043
-1.296168524
7539706233
11,011.6
2003/03
2929.2677
-1.148752452
7535289460
11,255.1
2003/04
4318.073
-0.067788481
7781167392
11,414.8
2004/01
9122.7049
6.992872665
7620258155
11,589.9
2004/02
4052.2383
-1.3293287
7823421276
11,762.9
2004/03
3096.272
-0.672167033
7871310096
11,936.3
2004/04
7539.2968
0.455620164
8133297810
12,123.9
2005/01
6287.8145
6.039053452
7773298608
12,361.8
2005/02
5854.4909
-1.224975725
8117334064
12,500.0
2005/03
5295.1793
-1.182860465
8141697897
12,728.6
2005/04
4913.9955
-0.388266472
8424010420
12,901.4
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Variable X 4
Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
0.71425285
0.51015713
0.47341891
3.57836715
44
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Coeficientes
47.1066762
-9.4667E-09
0.00241092
-2.2205E-05
Error tpico
7.70270782
2.34369E-09
0.001052485
0.000259352
R2 GLOBAL:
0.937392146
INFLACION
PIB MX
PIB USA
IED
0.510157127
0.928700219
0.909115749
0.269353947
Resumen
Suma de cuadrados
533.4294064
512.1884597
1045.617866
0.96369094
0.92870022
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.92335274
203456318
44
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Suma de cuadrados
Coeficientes
3527609319
370067.018
11720.4519
-30603519.8
Error tpico
2.1567E+19
1.65578E+18
2.32228E+19
245039225.2
25040.38996
14630.49677
7576572.222
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.95347562
0.90911575
0.90229943
505.443796
44
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Coeficientes
-6617.24399
0.0090271
48.101428
2.2839E-06
Suma de cuadrados
102220095.4
10218937.26
112439032.7
Error tpico
1093.567358
0.036608942
20.99867293
1.54541E-07
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
0.51899321
0.26935395
0.21455549
2181.35259
44
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Grados de libertad
3
40
43
Coeficientes
-6843.67904
-8.25160134
1.3473E-06
0.16813342
Suma de cuadrados
70166212.35
190331965.3
260498177.6
Error tpico
6441.447707
96.37650755
1.68178E-06
0.681856802
de la regresin
0.968190139
0.937392146
0.930970828
396.5433185
44
Grados de libertad
4
39
43
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
91820229.11
22955057.28
6132617.533
157246.6034
97952846.64
Coeficientes
362.5477213
-51.45041465
-1.95819E-06
1.663498924
-0.054863353
Error tpico
1187.38405
17.5216799
3.08169E-07
0.12404743
0.028743177
Pronstico para Y
211.9487621
652.2453308
1195.592808
838.4152723
659.8131912
1316.115331
1340.273176
771.1564401
1094.554729
1194.140402
1122.618259
786.7765484
929.1983757
1293.111831
1324.160494
1183.418559
Residuos
578.0472379
356.7776692
-176.2708076
15.96772773
272.9398088
-143.941331
-241.2841758
248.6055599
-42.40672912
171.6475984
179.4377406
358.0774516
246.9256243
170.7461688
133.0635063
346.2194412
F
145.98126
Estadstico t
Probabilidad
0.305333158 0.76173616
-2.936385948
0.0055456
-6.354259828
1.669E-07
13.41018453 3.4477E-16
-1.908743537 0.06367415
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1412.391566
1825.237252
1826.911059
1579.663113
1537.782379
2035.915421
1976.406368
1761.863389
2401.145296
2711.432429
2009.005098
2520.60957
3291.932163
2965.864156
3137.416901
2897.521568
3492.080363
3685.12439
4228.273865
3880.648818
3860.145888
4456.463086
4669.774753
4167.041541
5049.124685
5002.844963
5363.930709
5078.593102
-159.0025662
-262.5712521
-297.5700591
-15.42711294
-139.9213787
-404.7684208
-242.2533684
47.51861081
-390.4342961
-430.5454295
348.9759015
-274.9255702
-1117.497163
-387.7841564
-584.6058007
-388.3995677
-321.953663
219.5229097
-100.157165
55.14688232
-126.2846876
512.1746145
358.2498469
434.1829589
-561.6017847
731.015637
421.5832914
602.7802978

177.8098021
12.80471149
Estadstico t
6.115599513
-4.039230264
2.290688948
-0.085618389
F
13.88627945
Probabilidad
3.25078E-07
0.000236231
0.027329176
0.932196909
Valor crtico de F
2.37457E-06
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
31.53892313 62.6744292
-1.42035E-08 -4.7299E-09
0.000283764 0.00453807
-0.000546375 0.00050196

7.189E+18
4.13945E+16
Estadstico t
14.39610053
14.7788041
0.80109733
-4.039230264
F
173.6705129
Valor crtico de F
5.72102E-23
Probabilidad
2.05635E-17
8.4674E-18
0.427808386
0.000236231
Inferior 95%
3032366576
319458.5023
-17848.88478
-45916343.33
Superior 95%
4022852062
420675.533
41289.7886
-15290696.3

34073365.15
255473.4314
Estadstico t
-6.051062092
0.24658172
2.290688948
14.7788041
F
133.3734195
Valor crtico de F
7.2626E-21
Probabilidad
4.00622E-07
0.806493055
0.027329176
8.4674E-18
Inferior 95%
-8827.426039
-0.064962335
5.661527348
1.9716E-06
Superior 95%
-4407.06193
0.08301653
90.5413287
2.5963E-06

23388737.45
4758299.132
Estadstico t
-1.062444244
-0.085618389
0.80109733
0.24658172
F
4.915356685
Probabilidad
0.29440659
0.932196909
0.427808386
0.806493055
Valor crtico de F
0.005321865
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
-19862.33035 6174.97227
-203.035787 186.532584
-2.05173E-06 4.7463E-06
-1.209950565 1.54621741
Valor crtico de F
6.59705E-23
Inferior 95%
Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%
-2039.163193 2764.25864 -2039.16319 2764.25864
-86.89135717 -16.0094721 -86.8913572 -16.0094721
-2.58152E-06 -1.3349E-06 -2.5815E-06 -1.3349E-06
1.412589317 1.91440853 1.41258932 1.91440853
-0.113001916 0.00327521 -0.11300192 0.00327521
REMESAS
Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

31.53892313 62.6744292
-1.42035E-08 -4.7299E-09
0.000283764 0.00453807
-0.000546375 0.00050196

3032366576 4022852062
319458.5023 420675.533
-17848.88478 41289.7886
-45916343.33 -15290696.3

-8827.426039 -4407.06193
-0.064962335 0.08301653
5.661527348 90.5413287
1.9716E-06 2.5963E-06

-19862.33035 6174.97227
-203.035787 186.532584
-2.05173E-06 4.7463E-06
-1.209950565 1.54621741
EMESAS
OBSERVADOS
ESTIMADOS
OBSERVADOS
ESTIMADOS
PIB MX
Periodo
MILES
91 DIAS
MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
CETES
FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
192,837,110
789.996
1995/01
5826003719
49.060
1995/02
5600037018
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719
1995/03
5691934606
36.640
166,820,749
1019.322
5600037018
1995/04
5962216993
47.817
189,687,703
854.383
5691934606
1996/01
5891226773
41.767
185,432,161
932.753
5962216993
1996/02
5955682235
5891226773
6073486667
197,745,367
210,697,803
1172.174
1996/03
32.583
29.537
1098.989
5955682235
1996/04
6427559423
1019.762
6073486667
1997/01
241,566,662
220,498,277
6152807218
27.710
22.973
1052.148
6427559423
1997/02
6492761735
21.453
247,478,806
1365.788
6152807218
1997/03
6569860091
20.057
258,623,431
1302.056
6492761735
1997/04
6898432227
284,589,118
269,835,103
6569860091
6665227031
20.600
19.923
1144.854
1998/01
1176.124
6898432227
1998/02
6779735047
19.770
273,742,257
1463.858
6665227031
1998/03
6891651789
29.357
283,560,167
1457.224
6779735047
1998/04
7072200643
35.713
288,013,581
1529.638
6891651789
1999/01
6833076833
28.283
285,559,164
1253.389
7072200643
1999/02
6997209329
21.140
295,524,329
1562.666
6833076833
1999/03
7148246491
6997209329
7410151130
302,973,686
317,057,090
1529.341
1999/04
21.203
18.877
1564.236
7148246491
2000/01
7298852761
16.110
320,950,349
1397.861
7410151130
2000/02
7467037675
15.520
331,376,757
1631.147
7298852761
2000/03
7604284603
15.493
339,393,951
1734.153
7467037675
2000/04
7711444345
7604284603
7310622304
345,811,675
322,640,696
1809.382
2001/01
17.493
17.680
2010.711
7711444345
2001/02
7424984882
12.760
314,087,285
2280.887
7310622304
2001/03
7483060755
9.890
310,390,102
2357.981
7424984882
2001/04
7576346882
8.633
315,008,668
2245.684
7483060755
2002/01
7110694282
7.610
302,159,944
2174.435
7576346882
2002/02
7523677198
6.860
324,733,600
2578.08
7110694282
2002/03
7517032580
7.590
310,071,582
2552.8111
7523677198
2002/04
7670055408
7.777
317,103,966
2509.122
7517032580
2003/01
7367050447
8.890
307,126,688
3170.1267
7670055408
2003/02
7539706233
6.373
313,955,391
3904.6473
7367050447
2003/03
7535289460
5.193
315,985,455
4128.1167
7539706233
2003/04
7781167392
5.597
321,629,474
3935.7957
7535289460
2004/01
7620258155
5.650
320,667,476
3733.8612
7781167392
2004/02
7823421276
6.767
332,238,051
4968.6377
7620258155
2004/03
7871310096
7.517
343,690,009
5028.0246
7823421276
2004/04
8133297810
8.470
356,551,888
4601.2245
7871310096
2005/01
7773298608
9.263
341,655,239
4487.5229
8133297810
2005/02
8117334064
9.893
360,377,458
5733.8606
7773298608
2005/03
8141697897
9.523
367,570,597
5785.514
8117334064
2005/04
8424010420
8.637
386,750,005
5681.3734
8141697897
TASA DE INTERES
PERIODO
91 DIAS
MILLONES
MILLONES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
Resumen
1995/02
FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719
1995/03
36.640
166,820,749
1019.322
5600037018
1995/04
47.817
189,687,703
854.383
5691934606
1996/01
41.767
185,432,161
932.753
5962216993
1996/02
32.583
197,745,367
1172.174
5891226773
1996/03
29.537
27.710
210,697,803
241,566,662
1098.989
5955682235
1019.762
6073486667
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
22.973
21.453
220,498,277
247,478,806
1052.148
6427559423
1997/02
1365.788
6152807218
1997/03
20.057
258,623,431
1302.056
6492761735
1997/04
20.600
284,589,118
1144.854
6569860091
1996/04
1997/01
CETES
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
19.923
19.770
269,835,103
273,742,257
1176.124
6898432227
1998/02
1463.858
6665227031
1998/03
29.357
283,560,167
1457.224
6779735047
1998/04
35.713
288,013,581
1529.638
6891651789
1999/01
28.283
285,559,164
1253.389
7072200643
1999/02
21.140
295,524,329
1562.666
6833076833
1999/03
302,973,686
317,057,090
1529.341
6997209329
1999/04
21.203
18.877
1564.236
7148246491
2000/01
16.110
320,950,349
1397.861
7410151130
2000/02
15.520
331,376,757
1631.147
7298852761
2000/03
15.493
339,393,951
1734.153
7467037675
2000/04
17.493
345,811,675
1809.382
7604284603
2001/01
17.680
322,640,696
2010.711
7711444345
2001/02
12.760
314,087,285
2280.887
7310622304
2001/03
9.890
310,390,102
2357.981
7424984882
2001/04
8.633
315,008,668
2245.684
7483060755
2002/01
7.610
302,159,944
2174.435
7576346882
2002/02
6.860
324,733,600
2578.08
7110694282
2002/03
7.590
310,071,582
2552.8111
7523677198
2002/04
7.777
317,103,966
2509.122
7517032580
2003/01
8.890
307,126,688
3170.1267
7670055408
2003/02
6.373
313,955,391
3904.6473
7367050447
2003/03
5.193
315,985,455
4128.1167
7539706233
2003/04
5.597
321,629,474
3935.7957
7535289460
2004/01
5.650
320,667,476
3733.8612
7781167392
2004/02
6.767
332,238,051
4968.6377
7620258155
2004/03
7.517
343,690,009
5028.0246
7823421276
2004/04
8.470
356,551,888
4601.2245
7871310096
2005/01
9.263
341,655,239
4487.5229
8133297810
2005/02
9.893
360,377,458
5733.8606
7773298608
2005/03
9.523
367,570,597
5785.514
8117334064
2005/04
8.637
386,750,005
5681.3734
8141697897
1998/01
INVERSION
MILLONES
MILLONES
91 DIAS
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
DE PESOS
PERIODO
1995/02
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
CETES
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719
1995/03
166,820,749
1995/04
189,687,703
1996/01
185,432,161
1996/02
1996/03
Resumen
57.623
5600037018
36.640
854.383
5691934606
47.817
932.753
5962216993
41.767
197,745,367
1172.174
5891226773
32.583
210,697,803
241,566,662
1098.989
5955682235
1019.762
6073486667
29.537
27.710
220,498,277
247,478,806
1052.148
6427559423
1997/02
1365.788
6152807218
22.973
21.453
1997/03
258,623,431
1302.056
6492761735
20.057
1997/04
284,589,118
1144.854
6569860091
20.600
1998/01
1176.124
6898432227
1998/02
269,835,103
273,742,257
1463.858
6665227031
19.923
19.770
1998/03
283,560,167
1457.224
6779735047
29.357
1998/04
288,013,581
1529.638
6891651789
35.713
1999/01
285,559,164
1253.389
7072200643
28.283
1999/02
295,524,329
1562.666
6833076833
21.140
1999/03
1529.341
6997209329
1999/04
302,973,686
317,057,090
1564.236
7148246491
21.203
18.877
2000/01
320,950,349
1397.861
7410151130
16.110
2000/02
331,376,757
1631.147
7298852761
15.520
2000/03
339,393,951
1734.153
7467037675
15.493
2000/04
345,811,675
1809.382
7604284603
17.493
2001/01
322,640,696
2010.711
7711444345
17.680
2001/02
314,087,285
2280.887
7310622304
12.760
2001/03
310,390,102
2357.981
7424984882
9.890
2001/04
315,008,668
2245.684
7483060755
8.633
2002/01
302,159,944
2174.435
7576346882
7.610
2002/02
324,733,600
2578.08
7110694282
6.860
2002/03
310,071,582
2552.8111
7523677198
7.590
2002/04
317,103,966
2509.122
7517032580
7.777
2003/01
307,126,688
3170.1267
7670055408
8.890
2003/02
313,955,391
3904.6473
7367050447
6.373
2003/03
315,985,455
4128.1167
7539706233
5.193
2003/04
321,629,474
3935.7957
7535289460
5.597
2004/01
320,667,476
3733.8612
7781167392
5.650
2004/02
332,238,051
4968.6377
7620258155
6.767
2004/03
343,690,009
5028.0246
7823421276
7.517
2004/04
356,551,888
4601.2245
7871310096
8.470
2005/01
341,655,239
4487.5229
8133297810
9.263
2005/02
360,377,458
5733.8606
7773298608
9.893
2005/03
367,570,597
5785.514
8117334064
9.523
2005/04
386,750,005
5681.3734
8141697897
8.637
1996/04
1997/01
1019.322
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
REMESAS
PERIODO
MILLONES
91 DIAS
MILLONES
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
CETES
1995/02
REMESAS
1009.023
PIB(-1)
5826003719
57.623
FBKF (I)
168,422,639
1995/03
1019.322
5600037018
36.640
166,820,749
1995/04
854.383
5691934606
47.817
189,687,703
1996/01
932.753
5962216993
1996/02
1172.174
5891226773
41.767
32.583
185,432,161
197,745,367
1996/03
1098.989
5955682235
1996/04
1019.762
6073486667
29.537
27.710
210,697,803
241,566,662
1997/01
1052.148
6427559423
22.973
220,498,277
247,478,806
1997/02
1365.788
6152807218
21.453
1997/03
1302.056
6492761735
1997/04
1144.854
6569860091
20.057
20.600
258,623,431
284,589,118
1998/01
1176.124
6898432227
19.923
269,835,103
1998/02
1463.858
6665227031
19.770
273,742,257
1998/03
1457.224
6779735047
29.357
283,560,167
288,013,581
1998/04
1529.638
6891651789
35.713
1999/01
1253.389
7072200643
1999/02
1562.666
6833076833
28.283
21.140
285,559,164
295,524,329
1999/03
1529.341
6997209329
21.203
302,973,686
1999/04
1564.236
7148246491
18.877
317,057,090
2000/01
1397.861
7410151130
16.110
320,950,349
331,376,757
2000/02
1631.147
7298852761
15.520
2000/03
1734.153
7467037675
15.493
339,393,951
2000/04
1809.382
7604284603
17.493
345,811,675
322,640,696
2001/01
2010.711
7711444345
17.680
2001/02
2280.887
7310622304
12.760
314,087,285
2001/03
2357.981
7424984882
9.890
310,390,102
315,008,668
2001/04
2245.684
7483060755
8.633
2002/01
2174.435
7576346882
7.610
302,159,944
324,733,600
2002/02
2578.08
7110694282
6.860
2002/03
2552.8111
7523677198
7.590
310,071,582
2002/04
2509.122
7517032580
7.777
317,103,966
307,126,688
313,955,391
2003/01
3170.1267
7670055408
8.890
2003/02
3904.6473
7367050447
6.373
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
2003/03
4128.1167
7539706233
5.193
315,985,455
2003/04
3935.7957
7535289460
5.597
321,629,474
2004/01
3733.8612
7781167392
5.650
320,667,476
332,238,051
2004/02
4968.6377
7620258155
6.767
2004/03
5028.0246
7823421276
7.517
343,690,009
2004/04
4601.2245
7871310096
8.470
356,551,888
341,655,239
2005/01
4487.5229
8133297810
9.263
2005/02
5733.8606
7773298608
9.893
360,377,458
2005/03
5785.514
8117334064
9.523
367,570,597
8141697897
8.637
386,750,005
2005/04
5681.3734
PIB
REZAGADO
PERIODO
PIB(-1)
91 DIAS
MILLONES
MILLONES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
CETES
FBKF (I)
REMESAS
5826003719
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5600037018
36.640
166,820,749
1019.322
1995/04
5691934606
47.817
189,687,703
854.383
1996/01
5962216993
41.767
185,432,161
932.753
1996/02
5891226773
5955682235
197,745,367
210,697,803
1172.174
1996/03
32.583
29.537
241,566,662
220,498,277
1019.762
1995/02
1995/03
1996/04
6073486667
1997/01
6427559423
27.710
22.973
1997/02
1098.989
1052.148
6152807218
21.453
247,478,806
1365.788
1997/03
6492761735
20.057
258,623,431
1302.056
1997/04
6569860091
6898432227
284,589,118
269,835,103
1144.854
1998/01
20.600
19.923
1998/02
6665227031
19.770
273,742,257
1463.858
1998/03
6779735047
29.357
283,560,167
1457.224
1998/04
6891651789
35.713
288,013,581
1529.638
1999/01
7072200643
28.283
285,559,164
1253.389
1999/02
6833076833
6997209329
295,524,329
302,973,686
1562.666
1999/03
21.140
21.203
1999/04
7148246491
18.877
317,057,090
1564.236
2000/01
7410151130
16.110
320,950,349
1397.861
2000/02
7298852761
15.520
331,376,757
1631.147
2000/03
7467037675
15.493
339,393,951
1734.153
2000/04
7604284603
17.493
345,811,675
1809.382
2001/01
1176.124
1529.341
7711444345
17.680
322,640,696
2010.711
2001/02
7310622304
12.760
314,087,285
2280.887
2001/03
7424984882
9.890
310,390,102
2357.981
2001/04
7483060755
8.633
315,008,668
2245.684
2002/01
7576346882
7.610
302,159,944
2174.435
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de liberta
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
2002/02
7110694282
6.860
324,733,600
2578.08
2002/03
7523677198
7.590
310,071,582
2552.8111
2002/04
7517032580
7.777
317,103,966
2509.122
2003/01
7670055408
8.890
307,126,688
3170.1267
2003/02
7367050447
6.373
313,955,391
3904.6473
2003/03
7539706233
5.193
315,985,455
4128.1167
2003/04
7535289460
5.597
321,629,474
3935.7957
2004/01
7781167392
5.650
320,667,476
3733.8612
2004/02
7620258155
6.767
332,238,051
4968.6377
2004/03
7823421276
7.517
343,690,009
5028.0246
2004/04
7871310096
8.470
356,551,888
4601.2245
2005/01
8133297810
9.263
341,655,239
4487.5229
2005/02
7773298608
9.893
360,377,458
5733.8606
2005/03
8117334064
9.523
367,570,597
5785.514
8141697897
8.637
386,750,005
5681.3734
2005/04
Resumen
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.99162939mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.98332885 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.98157399
Error tpico
97157152
Observaciones
43
1E+10
8E+09
6E+09
4E+09
2E+09
Coeficientes
Intercepcin 3811896710
Variable X 1 -3007008.32
Variable X 2
10.3423107
Variable X 3
84204.3944
Variable X 4
0.02175982
Error tpico
364117355
2324464.13
0.89376195
15679.9454
0.07460794

ObservacinPronstico para Y Residuos
1 5592239119
7797899.1
2 5634719158 57215447.1
3 5825719059 136497934
4 5812379717 78847055.3
5 5985956645 -30274410.5
6 6124316156 -50829488.3
7 6444956431 -17397008.2
8 6251735448 -98928229.3
9 6555778421 -63016685.8
10 6677270220 -107410129
11 6932622163 -34189935.5
12 6791849041 -126622009
13 6851873079 -72138032.6
14 6926518831 -34867042.5
15 6961995739 110204904
16 6939620799 -106543966
Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

10.4688685
9.409E-13 3074779668
-1.29363507 0.20359983 -7712639.9
11.5716615 5.0803E-14 8.53298427
5.37019691 4.1563E-06 52462.0047
0.29165561 0.77213623 -0.12927605
1995/02
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
4 2.1158E+19 5.2894E+18 560.346672 3.2467E-33
Residuos
38
3.587E+17 9.4395E+15
Total
42 2.1516E+19
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
7085002885
7162621388
7321497489
7361771666
7488600825
7583930556
7653611716
7432693507
7373054143
7352427005
7395780276
7262002363
7521577548
7374601969
7442948361
7395401700
7528850433
7575968321
7616837311
7595074143
7811855050
7937460933
8032719409
7872394709
8161244892
8248586758
8441373426
-87793556.1
-14374897.8
88653640.6
-62918905.2
-21563150
20354047
57832628.7
-122071204
51930738.9
130633750
180566605
-151308081
2099650
142430611
227107047
-28351252.6
10855799.2
-40678860.5
164330081
25184011.3
11566226.3
-66150837
100578401
-99096101.2
-43910828.1
-106888861
-17363005.9
ticas de la regresin
0.85240287
0.72659065
0.70555916
6.69298147
43
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 4642.80334 1547.60111 34.5477516 4.5512E-11
39 1747.04404
42 6389.84738
Coeficientes Error tpico
95.7059435 19.8573461
-8.5431E-08 6.0031E-08
-0.0007358 0.00107372
-7.1319E-09 5.0111E-09
R2 GLOBAL:
AUXILIARES:
R:
I:
REME:
PIB(-1):
0.98332885
0.72659065
0.90617232
0.59740029
0.92103595
44.796001
Estadstico t Probabilidad
4.81967444 2.2088E-05
-1.42311419 0.16265378
-0.68528386 0.49721806
-1.42322071
0.1626231
Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

55.5406702 135.871217 55.5406702
-2.0685E-07 3.5993E-08 -2.0685E-07
-0.0029076
0.001436 -0.0029076
-1.7268E-08
3.004E-09 -1.7268E-08
0.95193084
0.90617232
0.8989548
17406867.1
43
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 1.1413E+17 3.8042E+16
125.55186 4.4242E-20
39 1.1817E+16
3.03E+14
42 1.2594E+17
-165377624 59619273.1
-1501.86281 2798.93724
0.06672076
0.008033
-577849.978 406046.107
Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

-2.77389535 0.00845523 -285968986 -44786263.3 -285968986
-0.53658324 0.59460342 -7163.24769 4159.52208 -7163.24769
8.3058363 3.7166E-10 0.05047249 0.08296903 0.05047249
-1.42311419 0.16265378 -1399155.74 243455.788 -1399155.74
0.77291674
0.59740029
0.56643108
992.197037
43
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 56970815.3 18990271.8 19.2901377 7.8673E-08
39 38393743.4
984454.96
42 95364558.7
-8183.362 3479.93128
1.7395E-06 7.0918E-07
-16.1702735 23.5964605
-4.8796E-06 9.0938E-06

-2.35158724 0.02383929 -15222.1873 -1144.53667 -15222.1873
2.45290473 0.01874632
3.051E-07
3.174E-06
3.051E-07
-0.68528386 0.49721806 -63.8986195 31.5580725 -63.8986195
-0.53658324 0.59460342 -2.3274E-05 1.3514E-05 -2.3274E-05
0.95970618
0.92103595
0.91496179
208524662
43
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3
1.978E+19 6.5933E+18 151.631875 1.5438E-21
39 1.6958E+18 4.3483E+16
42 2.1476E+19
Coeficientes
4220327554
-6922816.39
9.57490801
76833.9487
Error tpico
392468841
4864190.32
1.15279277
31323.6579

10.7532806 3.1448E-13 3426484401 5014170707 3426484401
-1.42322071
0.1626231 -16761569.9 2915937.11 -16761569.9
8.3058363 3.7166E-10 7.24316457 11.9066515 7.24316457
2.45290473 0.01874632 13475.8709 140192.027 13475.8709
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO DE

MXICO
1E+10
8E+09
6E+09
4E+09
OBSERVADOS
2E+09
ESTIMADOS

4549013752 3074779668 4549013752
1698623.27 -7712639.9 1698623.27
12.1516372 8.53298427 12.1516372
115946.784 52462.0047 115946.784
0.1727957 -0.12927605
0.1727957
2005/04
2005/01
2004/02
2003/03
2002/04
2002/01
2001/02
2000/03
1999/04
1999/01
1998/02
1997/03
1996/04
1996/01
or crtico de F
1995/02
Superior 95.0%
135.871217
3.5993E-08
0.001436
3.004E-09
Superior 95.0%
-44786263.3
4159.52208
0.08296903
243455.788
Superior 95.0%
-1144.53667
3.174E-06
31.5580725
1.3514E-05
Superior 95.0%
5014170707
2915937.11
11.9066515
140192.027
REGRESION INVERSION
Periodo
1995/01
MILLONES
91 DIAS
MILES
MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
REMESAS
FBKF (I)
CETES
192,837,110
IED
49.060
5826003719
789.996
1982.817
1995/02
168,422,639
57.623
5600037018
1009.023
2913.607
1995/03
166,820,749
36.640
5691934606
1019.322
2254.719
1995/04
189,687,703
47.817
5962216993
854.383
2375.157
1996/01
185,432,161
41.767
5891226773
932.753
2027.668
1996/02
197,745,367
210,697,803
32.583
29.537
5955682235
1172.174
1779.942
6073486667
1098.989
2004.378
27.710
22.973
6427559423
1019.762
3373.463
1997/01
241,566,662
220,498,277
6152807218
1052.148
2109.241
1997/02
247,478,806
21.453
6492761735
1365.788
2594.518
1997/03
258,623,431
20.057
6569860091
1302.056
5594.98
1997/04
284,589,118
269,835,103
20.600
19.923
6898432227
1144.854
2530.817
1998/01
6665227031
1176.124
2620.8186
1998/02
273,742,257
19.770
6779735047
1463.858
3477.683
1998/03
283,560,167
29.357
6891651789
1457.224
3295.1097
1998/04
288,013,581
35.713
7072200643
1529.638
3313.5336
1999/01
285,559,164
28.283
6833076833
1253.389
3525.6642
1999/02
295,524,329
21.140
6997209329
1562.666
3395.7421
1999/03
21.203
18.877
7148246491
1529.341
3018.3991
1999/04
302,973,686
317,057,090
7410151130
1564.236
3929.7862
2000/01
320,950,349
16.110
7298852761
1397.861
4520.7958
2000/02
331,376,757
15.520
7467037675
1631.147
4764.975
2000/03
339,393,951
15.493
7604284603
1734.153
3031.3497
2000/04
17.493
17.680
7711444345
1809.382
5781.0621
2001/01
345,811,675
322,640,696
7310622304
2010.711
3538.7528
2001/02
314,087,285
12.760
7424984882
2280.887
5138.3226
2001/03
310,390,102
9.890
7483060755
2357.981
16268.283
2001/04
315,008,668
8.633
7576346882
2245.684
4828.8116
2002/01
302,159,944
7.610
7110694282
2174.435
5008.7086
2002/02
324,733,600
6.860
7523677198
2578.08
6067.5055
2002/03
310,071,582
7.590
7517032580
2552.8111
6087.7807
2002/04
317,103,966
7.777
7670055408
2509.122
6472.2487
2003/01
307,126,688
8.890
7367050447
3170.1267
3904.4675
2003/02
313,955,391
6.373
7539706233
3904.6473
5426.8043
2003/03
315,985,455
5.193
7535289460
4128.1167
2929.2677
2003/04
321,629,474
5.597
7781167392
3935.7957
4318.073
2004/01
320,667,476
5.650
7620258155
3733.8612
9122.7049
2004/02
332,238,051
6.767
7823421276
4968.6377
4052.2383
2004/03
343,690,009
7.517
7871310096
5028.0246
3096.272
2004/04
356,551,888
8.470
8133297810
4601.2245
7539.2968
2005/01
341,655,239
9.263
7773298608
4487.5229
6287.8145
2005/02
360,377,458
9.893
8117334064
5733.8606
5854.4909
1996/03
1996/04
Estadsticas de
2005/03
367,570,597
9.523
8141697897
5785.514
5295.1793
2005/04
386,750,005
8.637
8424010420
5681.3734
4913.9955
AUXILIARES
TASA DE INTERES
Periodo
91 DIAS
MILES
MILLONES
MILLONES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
CETES
PIB MX
REMESAS
IED
1995/01
49.060
5826003719
789.996
1982.817
1995/02
57.623
5600037018
1009.023
2913.607
1995/03
36.640
5691934606
1019.322
2254.719
1995/04
47.817
5962216993
854.383
2375.157
1996/01
41.767
5891226773
932.753
2027.668
1996/02
5955682235
1172.174
1779.942
1996/03
32.583
29.537
6073486667
1098.989
2004.378
1996/04
27.710
6427559423
1019.762
3373.463
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
1997/01
22.973
6152807218
1052.148
2109.241
1997/02
21.453
6492761735
1365.788
2594.518
1997/03
20.057
6569860091
1302.056
5594.98
1997/04
6898432227
1144.854
2530.817
1998/01
20.600
19.923
6665227031
1176.124
2620.8186
1998/02
19.770
6779735047
1463.858
3477.683
1998/03
29.357
6891651789
1457.224
3295.1097
1998/04
35.713
7072200643
1529.638
3313.5336
1999/01
28.283
6833076833
1253.389
3525.6642
1999/02
6997209329
1562.666
3395.7421
1999/03
21.140
21.203
7148246491
1529.341
3018.3991
1999/04
18.877
7410151130
1564.236
3929.7862
2000/01
16.110
7298852761
1397.861
4520.7958
2000/02
15.520
7467037675
1631.147
4764.975
2000/03
15.493
7604284603
1734.153
3031.3497
2000/04
17.493
7711444345
1809.382
5781.0621
2001/01
17.680
7310622304
2010.711
3538.7528
2001/02
12.760
7424984882
2280.887
5138.3226
2001/03
9.890
7483060755
2357.981
16268.283
2001/04
8.633
7576346882
2245.684
4828.8116
2002/01
7.610
7110694282
2174.435
5008.7086
2002/02
6.860
7523677198
2578.08
6067.5055
2002/03
7.590
7517032580
2552.8111
6087.7807
2002/04
7.777
7670055408
2509.122
6472.2487
2003/01
8.890
7367050447
3170.1267
3904.4675
2003/02
6.373
7539706233
3904.6473
5426.8043
2003/03
5.193
7535289460
4128.1167
2929.2677
2003/04
5.597
7781167392
3935.7957
4318.073
2004/01
5.650
7620258155
3733.8612
9122.7049
2004/02
6.767
7823421276
4968.6377
4052.2383
2004/03
7.517
7871310096
5028.0246
3096.272
2004/04
8.470
8133297810
4601.2245
7539.2968
2005/01
9.263
7773298608
4487.5229
6287.8145
2005/02
9.893
8117334064
5733.8606
5854.4909
2005/03
9.523
8141697897
5785.514
5295.1793
2005/04
8.637
8424010420
5681.3734
4913.9955
MILES
MILLONES
MILLONES
91 DIAS
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Resumen
Periodo
PIB MX
REMESAS
IED
CETES
1995/01
5826003719
789.996
1982.817
49.060
1995/02
5600037018
1009.023
2913.607
57.623
1995/03
5691934606
1019.322
2254.719
36.640
1995/04
5962216993
854.383
2375.157
47.817
1996/01
5891226773
932.753
2027.668
1996/02
5955682235
1172.174
1779.942
41.767
32.583
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
1996/03
6073486667
1098.989
2004.378
1996/04
6427559423
1019.762
3373.463
29.537
27.710
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
1997/01
6152807218
1052.148
2109.241
22.973
1997/02
6492761735
1365.788
2594.518
21.453
1997/03
6569860091
1302.056
5594.98
1997/04
6898432227
1144.854
2530.817
20.057
20.600
1998/01
6665227031
1176.124
2620.8186
19.923
1998/02
6779735047
1463.858
3477.683
19.770
1998/03
6891651789
1457.224
3295.1097
29.357
1998/04
7072200643
1529.638
3313.5336
35.713
1999/01
6833076833
1253.389
3525.6642
1999/02
6997209329
1562.666
3395.7421
28.283
21.140
1999/03
7148246491
1529.341
3018.3991
21.203
1999/04
7410151130
1564.236
3929.7862
18.877
2000/01
7298852761
1397.861
4520.7958
16.110
2000/02
7467037675
1631.147
4764.975
15.520
2000/03
7604284603
1734.153
3031.3497
15.493
2000/04
7711444345
1809.382
5781.0621
17.493
2001/01
7310622304
2010.711
3538.7528
17.680
2001/02
7424984882
2280.887
5138.3226
12.760
2001/03
7483060755
2357.981
16268.283
9.890
2001/04
7576346882
2245.684
4828.8116
8.633
2002/01
7110694282
2174.435
5008.7086
7.610
2002/02
7523677198
2578.08
6067.5055
6.860
2002/03
7517032580
2552.8111
6087.7807
7.590
2002/04
7670055408
2509.122
6472.2487
7.777
2003/01
7367050447
3170.1267
3904.4675
8.890
2003/02
7539706233
3904.6473
5426.8043
6.373
2003/03
7535289460
4128.1167
2929.2677
5.193
2003/04
7781167392
3935.7957
4318.073
5.597
2004/01
7620258155
3733.8612
9122.7049
5.650
2004/02
7823421276
4968.6377
4052.2383
6.767
2004/03
7871310096
5028.0246
3096.272
7.517
2004/04
8133297810
4601.2245
7539.2968
8.470
2005/01
7773298608
4487.5229
6287.8145
9.263
2005/02
8117334064
5733.8606
5854.4909
9.893
2005/03
8141697897
5785.514
5295.1793
9.523
2005/04
8424010420
5681.3734
4913.9955
8.637
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Periodo
MILLONES
MILLONES
91 DIAS
MILES
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
CETES
PIB MX
REMESAS
IED
1995/01
789.996
1982.817
49.060
5826003719
1995/02
1009.023
2913.607
57.623
5600037018
1995/03
1019.322
2254.719
36.640
5691934606
1995/04
854.383
2375.157
47.817
5962216993
41.767
32.583
5891226773
6073486667
1996/01
932.753
2027.668
1996/02
1172.174
1779.942
1996/03
1098.989
2004.378
1996/04
1019.762
3373.463
29.537
27.710
6152807218
5955682235
6427559423
1997/01
1052.148
2109.241
22.973
1997/02
1365.788
2594.518
21.453
6492761735
1997/03
1302.056
5594.98
1144.854
2530.817
20.057
20.600
6569860091
1997/04
1998/01
1176.124
2620.8186
19.923
6665227031
1998/02
1463.858
3477.683
19.770
6779735047
6891651789
6898432227
1998/03
1457.224
3295.1097
29.357
1998/04
1529.638
3313.5336
35.713
7072200643
1999/01
1253.389
3525.6642
6833076833
1999/02
1562.666
3395.7421
28.283
21.140
1999/03
1529.341
3018.3991
21.203
7148246491
1999/04
1564.236
3929.7862
18.877
7410151130
7298852761
6997209329
2000/01
1397.861
4520.7958
16.110
2000/02
1631.147
4764.975
15.520
7467037675
2000/03
1734.153
3031.3497
15.493
7604284603
7711444345
2000/04
1809.382
5781.0621
17.493
2001/01
2010.711
3538.7528
17.680
7310622304
2001/02
2280.887
5138.3226
12.760
7424984882
7483060755
2001/03
2357.981
16268.283
9.890
2001/04
2245.684
4828.8116
8.633
7576346882
7110694282
2002/01
2174.435
5008.7086
7.610
2002/02
2578.08
6067.5055
6.860
7523677198
2002/03
2552.8111
6087.7807
7.590
7517032580
7670055408
7367050447
2002/04
2509.122
6472.2487
7.777
2003/01
3170.1267
3904.4675
8.890
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
2003/02
3904.6473
5426.8043
6.373
7539706233
2003/03
4128.1167
2929.2677
5.193
7535289460
2003/04
3935.7957
4318.073
5.597
7781167392
7620258155
2004/01
3733.8612
9122.7049
5.650
2004/02
4968.6377
4052.2383
6.767
7823421276
2004/03
5028.0246
3096.272
7.517
7871310096
8133297810
2004/04
4601.2245
7539.2968
8.470
2005/01
4487.5229
6287.8145
9.263
7773298608
2005/02
5733.8606
5854.4909
9.893
8117334064
8141697897
8424010420
2005/03
5785.514
5295.1793
9.523
2005/04
5681.3734
4913.9955
8.637
MILLONES
91 DIAS
MILES
MILLONES
DE DOLARES
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
CETES
PIB MX
REMESAS
Periodo
IED
1995/01
1982.817
49.060
5826003719
789.996
1995/02
2913.607
57.623
5600037018
1009.023
1995/03
2254.719
36.640
5691934606
1019.322
1995/04
2375.157
47.817
5962216993
854.383
1996/01
2027.668
5891226773
932.753
1996/02
1779.942
41.767
32.583
5955682235
1172.174
1996/03
2004.378
1098.989
3373.463
29.537
27.710
6073486667
1996/04
6427559423
1019.762
1997/01
2109.241
22.973
6152807218
1052.148
1997/02
2594.518
21.453
6492761735
1365.788
1997/03
5594.98
6569860091
1302.056
1997/04
2530.817
20.057
20.600
6898432227
1144.854
2620.8186
19.923
6665227031
1176.124
1998/02
3477.683
19.770
6779735047
1463.858
1998/03
3295.1097
29.357
6891651789
1457.224
1998/04
3313.5336
35.713
7072200643
1529.638
1999/01
3525.6642
6833076833
1253.389
1999/02
3395.7421
28.283
21.140
6997209329
1562.666
1999/03
3018.3991
21.203
7148246491
1529.341
1999/04
3929.7862
18.877
7410151130
1564.236
2000/01
4520.7958
16.110
7298852761
1397.861
2000/02
4764.975
15.520
7467037675
1631.147
2000/03
3031.3497
15.493
7604284603
1734.153
2000/04
5781.0621
17.493
7711444345
1809.382
1998/01
Resumen
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Regresin
Residuos
Total
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
2001/01
3538.7528
17.680
7310622304
2010.711
2001/02
5138.3226
12.760
7424984882
2280.887
2001/03
16268.283
9.890
7483060755
2357.981
2001/04
4828.8116
8.633
7576346882
2245.684
2002/01
5008.7086
7.610
7110694282
2174.435
2002/02
6067.5055
6.860
7523677198
2578.08
2002/03
6087.7807
7.590
7517032580
2552.8111
2002/04
6472.2487
7.777
7670055408
2509.122
2003/01
3904.4675
8.890
7367050447
3170.1267
2003/02
5426.8043
6.373
7539706233
3904.6473
2003/03
2929.2677
5.193
7535289460
4128.1167
2003/04
4318.073
5.597
7781167392
3935.7957
2004/01
9122.7049
5.650
7620258155
3733.8612
2004/02
4052.2383
6.767
7823421276
4968.6377
2004/03
3096.272
7.517
7871310096
5028.0246
2004/04
7539.2968
8.470
8133297810
4601.2245
2005/01
6287.8145
9.263
7773298608
4487.5229
2005/02
5854.4909
9.893
8117334064
5733.8606
2005/03
5295.1793
9.523
8141697897
5785.514
2005/04
4913.9955
8.637
8424010420
5681.3734
Resumen
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple 0.99022767
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 0.98055083
R^2 ajustado
0.97855605
Error tpico
8229302.64
Observaciones
44
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
4 1.3316E+17 3.3289E+16 491.556844 8.6539E-33
39 2.6411E+15 6.7721E+13
43
1.358E+17
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2
Variable X 3
Variable X 4

-313390238 30516767.2
-31220.6281 192626.097
0.08803688 0.00419657
-6737.59934 1393.36513
-1281.49826 604.983134

Observacin
Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

-10.2694442 1.1987E-12 -375116226
-0.16207891 0.87208054 -420843.681
20.9782906 7.5645E-23 0.07954851
-4.83548727 2.1019E-05 -9555.9463
-2.11823799 0.04058037 -2505.19214
450,000,000
Pronstico para Y Residuos

1 190117603 2719506.54
2 167288326
1134313
3 176808789 -9988039.82
4 201211616 -11523912.6
5 195068024 -9635862.97
6 199733529 -1988161.72
7 210405259 292544.079
8 240413068 1153593.64
9 217774518 2723758.88
10 245015446 2463360.45
11 248430863 10192568.2
12 282326248 2262869.72
13 261490695 8344407.78
14 268539704 5202553.08
15 278371867 5188299.67
16 293556859 -5543277.95
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
1995/01
1995/04
1996/03
1997/02
Regresin
Residuos
Total
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
274326525
287081967
301084925
322811782
313463388
326403581
340014829
345355782
311579874
317931421
308351389
332019517
291306375
323611072
323147579
336415068
308541720
316920591
318263534
339413297
320449112
336478460
341495971
361712668
332364541
354790659
357315864
383387603
11232639.4
8442362.1
1888761.29
-5754691.97
7486960.59
4973176.4
-620877.799
455892.81
11060821.5
-3844135.8
2038712.81
-17010849.4
10853569.2
1122527.74
-13075996.9
-19311101.7
-1415032.2
-2965199.97
-2278078.99
-17783823.4
218364.239
-4240409.46
2194037.78
-5160779.51
9290697.51
5586798.63
10254733.3
3362401.83
R2 GLOBAL
AUXILIARES:
R:
PIB
REMESAS
IED
0.866264734
0.750414589
0.731695683
6.754884292
44
0.98055083
0.75041459
0.83441429
0.64389413
0.2897114
NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 5487.54245 1829.18082 40.0885926 3.9483E-12
40 1825.13847 45.6284618
43 7312.68092
Coeficientes
124.9245223
-1.46176E-08
5.42285E-05
-0.000454156
Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

15.4047945 8.10945722 5.6206E-10 93.7902715 156.058773
2.5542E-09 -5.72291945 1.1587E-06 -1.978E-08 -9.4553E-09
0.00114369 0.04741545 0.96241807 -0.00225725 0.00236571
0.00049137 -0.92426248 0.36089209 -0.00144725 0.00053894
0.913462804
0.834414294
0.821995366
310054831.7
44
NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 1.9377E+19 6.4591E+18 67.1889149 1.1328E-15
40 3.8454E+18 9.6134E+16
43 2.3223E+19
Coeficientes
7125179590
190519.2552
28533.36187
-30797561.42
Error tpico
229749509
42995.0053
22342.9697
5381442.41
Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

31.0128175 1.3559E-29 6660838517 7589520663
4.43119506 7.1035E-05 103623.109 277415.401
1.2770622 0.20894389 -16623.4638 73690.1875
-5.72291945 1.1587E-06 -41673862.1 -19921260.7
0.80243014
0.64389413
0.617186189
933.8306017
44
NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 63071262.9 21023754.3 24.1087153 4.4935E-09
40 34881583.7 872039.593
43 97952846.6
Coeficientes
-9767.49261
-0.039388135
1.036401137
1.72822E-06
Error tpico Estadstico t

3099.48055 -3.15133212
0.06836817 -0.57611806
21.8578775 0.04741545
3.9001E-07 4.43119506
Probabilidad
0.00307523
0.56776307
0.96241807
7.1035E-05
Inferior 95% Superior 95%

-16031.7764 -3503.20881
-0.17756535 0.09878908
-43.1400167
45.212819
9.3997E-07 2.5165E-06
0.538248456
0.2897114
0.236439755
2150.749206
44
NLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Valor crtico de F
3 75469291.7 25156430.6 5.43837908 0.00311986
40 185028886 4625722.15
43 260498178
Coeficientes
Error tpico
-4026.389983 7950.18588
-46.0413977 49.8142019
1.37295E-06 1.0751E-06
-0.208933825
0.362658
Estadstico t
-0.50645231
-0.92426248
1.2770622
-0.57611806
Probabilidad
0.61531949
0.36089209
0.20894389
0.56776307
Inferior 95%
-20094.3148
-146.719654
-7.9988E-07
-0.94189298
Superior 95%
12041.5349
54.6368589
3.5458E-06
0.52402533
or crtico de F

-251664251 -375116226 -251664251
358402.425 -420843.681 358402.425
0.09652524 0.07954851 0.09652524
-3919.25237 -9555.9463 -3919.25237
-57.8043746 -2505.19214 -57.8043746
OBSERVADOS
1996/03
1997/02
1998/01
1998/04
1999/03
2000/02
2001/01
2001/04
2002/03
2003/02
2004/01
2004/04
2005/03
ESTIMADOS
Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

93.7902715 156.058773
-1.978E-08 -9.4553E-09
-0.00225725 0.00236571
-0.00144725 0.00053894

6660838517 7589520663
103623.109 277415.401
-16623.4638 73690.1875
-41673862.1 -19921260.7

-16031.7764 -3503.20881
-0.17756535 0.09878908
-43.1400167
45.212819
9.3997E-07 2.5165E-06

-20094.3148 12041.5349
-146.719654 54.6368589
-7.9988E-07 3.5458E-06
-0.94189298 0.52402533
MILLONES
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
Periodo
REMESAS
inflacion
MILES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
DE DOLARES
IED
1995/01
789.996
15.349814
5826003719
7,307.7
1982.817
1995/02
1009.023
15.95499468
5600037018
7,355.8
2913.607
1995/03
1019.322
5.725901285
5691934606
7,452.5
2254.719
1995/04
854.383
5.162660412
5962216993
7,542.5
2375.157
1996/01
932.753
14.80059151
5891226773
7,638.2
2027.668
1996/02
1172.174
5.086911584
5955682235
7,800.0
1779.942
1996/03
1098.989
2.891631764
6073486667
7,892.7
2004.378
1996/04
1019.762
3.230151051
6427559423
8,023.0
3373.463
1997/01
1052.148
12.43545244
6152807218
8,137.0
2109.241
1997/02
1365.788
1.563871019
6492761735
8,276.8
2594.518
1997/03
1302.056
1.123550958
6569860091
8,409.9
5594.98
1997/04
1144.854
1.510507696
6898432227
8,505.7
2530.817
1998/01
1176.124
10.59043636
6665227031
8,600.6
2620.8186
1998/02
1463.858
1.414042674
6779735047
8,698.6
3477.683
1998/03
1457.224
1.550286809
6891651789
8,847.2
3295.1097
1998/04
1529.638
3.223963453
7072200643
9,027.5
3313.5336
1999/01
1253.389
11.56379789
6833076833
9,148.6
3525.6642
1999/02
1562.666
0.793891448
6997209329
9,252.6
3395.7421
1999/03
1529.341
0.345943495
7148246491
9,405.1
3018.3991
1999/04
1564.236
0.762120911
7410151130
9,607.7
3929.7862
2000/01
1397.861
8.473298991
7298852761
9,709.5
4520.7958
2000/02
1631.147
-0.123189665
7467037675
9,949.1
4764.975
2000/03
1734.153
-0.130000842
7604284603
10,017.5
3031.3497
2000/04
1809.382
0.660207015
7711444345
10,129.8
5781.0621
2001/01
2010.711
7.022550425
7310622304
10,165.1
3538.7528
2001/02
2280.887
-0.662903584
7424984882
10,301.3
5138.3226
2001/03
2357.981
-0.962910178
7483060755
10,305.2
16268.283
2001/04
2245.684
-0.063343584
7576346882
10,373.1
4828.8116
2002/01
2174.435
6.536769379
7110694282
10,498.7
5008.7086
2002/02
2578.08
-0.63608493
7523677198
10,601.9
6067.5055
2002/03
2552.8111
-0.512402832
7517032580
10,701.7
6087.7807
2002/04
2509.122
0.024322903
7670055408
10,766.9
6472.2487
2003/01
3170.1267
6.634777958
7367050447
10,887.4
3904.4675
2003/02
3904.6473
-1.296168524
7539706233
11,011.6
5426.8043
2003/03
4128.1167
-1.148752452
7535289460
11,255.1
2929.2677
2003/04
3935.7957
-0.067788481
7781167392
11,414.8
4318.073
2004/01
3733.8612
6.992872665
7620258155
11,589.9
9122.7049
2004/02
4968.6377
-1.3293287
7823421276
11,762.9
4052.2383
2004/03
5028.0246
-0.672167033
7871310096
11,936.3
3096.272
2004/04
4601.2245
0.455620164
8133297810
12,123.9
7539.2968
2005/01
4487.5229
6.039053452
7773298608
12,361.8
6287.8145
2005/02
5733.8606
-1.224975725
8117334064
12,500.0
5854.4909
2005/03
5785.514
-1.182860465
8141697897
12,728.6
5295.1793
2005/04
5681.3734
-0.388266472
8424010420
12,901.4
4913.9955
inf
inf
pib mx
pib usa
IED
FIV=1/(1-
pib mx
pib usa
1
-0.66775655
1
-0.55117667 0.74713041
1
-0.34602834 0.51792206 0.50056742
0.5996079
0.64467189
3.95460757
0.74292641
2.07435336
2.00227225
IED
como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10
Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la inflacion

Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Estados Unidos y la inflacion
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Estados Unidos y el PIB de Mxico
Hay una correlacin negativa entre la inversin extranjera directa y la inflacion
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la inversin extranjera directa y el PIB de Mxico
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la inversin extranjera directa y el PIB de Estados Unidos
CION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD
Periodo
MILES
91 DIAS
MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
CETES
1995/01
5826003719
1995/02
5600037018
1995/03
5691934606
1995/04
5962216993
FBKF (I)
REMESAS
PIB(-1)
49.060
192,837,110
789.996
57.623
168,422,639
1009.023
5826003719
36.640
166,820,749
1019.322
5600037018
47.817
189,687,703
854.383
5691934606
1996/01
5891226773
41.767
185,432,161
932.753
5962216993
1996/02
5955682235
32.583
197,745,367
1172.174
5891226773
1996/03
6073486667
29.537
210,697,803
1098.989
5955682235
1996/04
6427559423
27.710
241,566,662
1019.762
6073486667
1997/01
6152807218
22.973
220,498,277
1052.148
6427559423
1997/02
6492761735
21.453
247,478,806
1365.788
6152807218
1997/03
6569860091
20.057
258,623,431
1302.056
6492761735
1997/04
6898432227
20.600
284,589,118
1144.854
6569860091
1998/01
6665227031
19.923
269,835,103
1176.124
6898432227
1998/02
6779735047
19.770
273,742,257
1463.858
6665227031
1998/03
6891651789
29.357
283,560,167
1457.224
6779735047
1998/04
7072200643
35.713
288,013,581
1529.638
6891651789
1999/01
6833076833
28.283
285,559,164
1253.389
7072200643
1999/02
6997209329
21.140
295,524,329
1562.666
6833076833
1999/03
7148246491
21.203
302,973,686
1529.341
6997209329
1999/04
7410151130
18.877
317,057,090
1564.236
7148246491
2000/01
7298852761
16.110
320,950,349
1397.861
7410151130
2000/02
7467037675
15.520
331,376,757
1631.147
7298852761
2000/03
7604284603
15.493
339,393,951
1734.153
7467037675
2000/04
7711444345
17.493
345,811,675
1809.382
7604284603
2001/01
7310622304
17.680
322,640,696
2010.711
7711444345
2001/02
7424984882
12.760
314,087,285
2280.887
7310622304
2001/03
7483060755
9.890
310,390,102
2357.981
7424984882
2001/04
7576346882
8.633
315,008,668
2245.684
7483060755
2002/01
7110694282
7.610
302,159,944
2174.435
7576346882
2002/02
7523677198
6.860
324,733,600
2578.08
7110694282
2002/03
7517032580
7.590
310,071,582
2552.8111
7523677198
2002/04
7670055408
7.777
317,103,966
2509.122
7517032580
2003/01
7367050447
8.890
307,126,688
3170.1267
7670055408
2003/02
7539706233
6.373
313,955,391
3904.6473
7367050447
2003/03
7535289460
5.193
315,985,455
4128.1167
7539706233
2003/04
7781167392
5.597
321,629,474
3935.7957
7535289460
2004/01
7620258155
5.650
320,667,476
3733.8612
7781167392
2004/02
7823421276
6.767
332,238,051
4968.6377
7620258155
2004/03
7871310096
7.517
343,690,009
5028.0246
7823421276
2004/04
8133297810
8.470
356,551,888
4601.2245
7871310096
2005/01
7773298608
9.263
341,655,239
4487.5229
8133297810
2005/02
8117334064
9.893
360,377,458
5733.8606
7773298608
8141697897
9.523
367,570,597
5785.514
8117334064
2005/03
2005/04
8424010420
8.637
386,750,005
5681.3734
8141697897
R
R
I
REME
PIBmx(-1)
FIV=1/(1-..)
REME
1
-0.73615799
1
-0.67961611
0.7168765
1
-0.64255523 0.74915886 0.76870808
PIBmx(-1)
0.57598445
0.59537414
3.53202753
0.60880754 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE COMO EL FIV ES MENOR A 10 NO EXISTE PRESENCIA DE
3.98658681
4.32354057
Hay una correlacin negativa entre la inversin y la tasa de inters

Hay una correlacin negativa entre las remesas y la tasa de inters
Hay una correlacin positiva entre las remesas y la inversin
Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y la tasa de inters
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y la inversin
Hay una correlacin positiva entre el PIB de Mxico rezagado y las remesas
MENOR A 10 NO EXISTE PRESENCIA DE MULTICOLINEALIDAD
Periodo
MILLONES
91 DIAS
MILES
MILLONES
MILLONES
DE PESOS
PORCENTUAL
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
REMESAS
FBKF (I)
CETES
192,837,110
IED
49.060
5826003719
789.996
1982.817
57.623
36.640
5600037018
1009.023
2913.607
1995/03
168,422,639
166,820,749
5691934606
1019.322
2254.719
1995/04
189,687,703
47.817
5962216993
854.383
2375.157
1996/01
185,432,161
41.767
5891226773
932.753
2027.668
1996/02
197,745,367
32.583
5955682235
1172.174
1779.942
1996/03
210,697,803
29.537
6073486667
1098.989
2004.378
1996/04
241,566,662
27.710
6427559423
1019.762
3373.463
1997/01
220,498,277
22.973
6152807218
1052.148
2109.241
1997/02
247,478,806
21.453
6492761735
1365.788
2594.518
1997/03
258,623,431
20.057
6569860091
1302.056
5594.98
1997/04
284,589,118
20.600
6898432227
1144.854
2530.817
1998/01
269,835,103
19.923
6665227031
1176.124
2620.8186
1998/02
273,742,257
19.770
6779735047
1463.858
3477.683
1998/03
283,560,167
29.357
6891651789
1457.224
3295.1097
1998/04
288,013,581
35.713
7072200643
1529.638
3313.5336
1999/01
285,559,164
28.283
6833076833
1253.389
3525.6642
1999/02
295,524,329
21.140
6997209329
1562.666
3395.7421
1999/03
302,973,686
21.203
7148246491
1529.341
3018.3991
1999/04
317,057,090
18.877
7410151130
1564.236
3929.7862
2000/01
320,950,349
16.110
7298852761
1397.861
4520.7958
2000/02
331,376,757
15.520
7467037675
1631.147
4764.975
2000/03
339,393,951
15.493
7604284603
1734.153
3031.3497
2000/04
345,811,675
17.493
7711444345
1809.382
5781.0621
2001/01
322,640,696
17.680
7310622304
2010.711
3538.7528
2001/02
314,087,285
12.760
7424984882
2280.887
5138.3226
2001/03
310,390,102
9.890
7483060755
2357.981
16268.283
2001/04
315,008,668
8.633
7576346882
2245.684
4828.8116
2002/01
302,159,944
7.610
7110694282
2174.435
5008.7086
2002/02
324,733,600
6.860
7523677198
2578.08
6067.5055
2002/03
310,071,582
7.590
7517032580
2552.8111
6087.7807
2002/04
317,103,966
7.777
7670055408
2509.122
6472.2487
2003/01
307,126,688
8.890
7367050447
3170.1267
3904.4675
2003/02
313,955,391
6.373
7539706233
3904.6473
5426.8043
2003/03
315,985,455
5.193
7535289460
4128.1167
2929.2677
2003/04
321,629,474
5.597
7781167392
3935.7957
4318.073
2004/01
320,667,476
5.650
7620258155
3733.8612
9122.7049
2004/02
332,238,051
6.767
7823421276
4968.6377
4052.2383
2004/03
343,690,009
7.517
7871310096
5028.0246
3096.272
2004/04
356,551,888
8.470
8133297810
4601.2245
7539.2968
2005/01
341,655,239
9.263
7773298608
4487.5229
6287.8145
2005/02
360,377,458
9.893
8117334064
5733.8606
5854.4909
2005/03
367,570,597
9.523
8141697897
5785.514
5295.1793
1995/01
1995/02
2005/04
386,750,005
8.637
8424010420
5681.3734
4913.9955
R
PIBmx
REME
IED
PIBmx
REME
1
-0.76311801
1
-0.68458426 0.70048862
1
-0.51005066 0.51792206 0.36702331
FIV= 0.56717701
0.59361827
3.33877126
0.66222944
2.07435336
1.57983701
IED
Hay una correlacin negativa entre el P

Hay una correlacin negativa entre las
Hay una correlacin positiva entre las r
Hay una correlacin negativa entre la I
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la IE
Hay una correlacin positiva entre la IE
como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CO
TAMBIEN USAR EL R2 DE TODAS LAS DEMAS
ay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la tasa de inters

ay una correlacin negativa entre las remesas y la tasa de inters
ay una correlacin positiva entre las remesas y el PIB de Mxico
ay una correlacin negativa entre la IED y la tasa de inters
ay una correlacin positiva entre la IED y el PIB de Mxico
ay una correlacin positiva entre la IED y las remesas
ANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD
MILLONES
UNIDAD %
DE DOLARES
Periodo
REMESAS
inflacion
MILES
DE PESOS
DE DOLARES
PIB MX
PIB USA
DE DOLARES
IED
1995/01
789.996
15.349814
5826003719
7,307.7
1982.817
1995/02
1009.023
15.95499468
5600037018
7,355.8
2913.607
1995/03
1019.322
5.725901285
5691934606
7,452.5
2254.719
1995/04
854.383
5.162660412
5962216993
7,542.5
2375.157
1996/01
932.753
14.80059151
5891226773
7,638.2
2027.668
1996/02
1172.174
5.086911584
5955682235
7,800.0
1779.942
1996/03
1098.989
2.891631764
6073486667
7,892.7
2004.378
1996/04
1019.762
3.230151051
6427559423
8,023.0
3373.463
1997/01
1052.148
12.43545244
6152807218
8,137.0
2109.241
1997/02
1365.788
1.563871019
6492761735
8,276.8
2594.518
1997/03
1302.056
1.123550958
6569860091
8,409.9
5594.98
1997/04
1144.854
1.510507696
6898432227
8,505.7
2530.817
1998/01
1176.124
10.59043636
6665227031
8,600.6
2620.8186
1998/02
1463.858
1.414042674
6779735047
8,698.6
3477.683
1998/03
1457.224
1.550286809
6891651789
8,847.2
3295.1097
1998/04
1529.638
3.223963453
7072200643
9,027.5
3313.5336
1999/01
1253.389
11.56379789
6833076833
9,148.6
3525.6642
1999/02
1562.666
0.793891448
6997209329
9,252.6
3395.7421
1999/03
1529.341
0.345943495
7148246491
9,405.1
3018.3991
1999/04
1564.236
0.762120911
7410151130
9,607.7
3929.7862
2000/01
1397.861
8.473298991
7298852761
9,709.5
4520.7958
2000/02
1631.147
-0.123189665
7467037675
9,949.1
4764.975
2000/03
1734.153
-0.130000842
7604284603
10,017.5
3031.3497
2000/04
1809.382
0.660207015
7711444345
10,129.8
5781.0621
2001/01
2010.711
7.022550425
7310622304
10,165.1
3538.7528
2001/02
2280.887
-0.662903584
7424984882
10,301.3
5138.3226
2001/03
2357.981
-0.962910178
7483060755
10,305.2
16268.283
2001/04
2245.684
-0.063343584
7576346882
10,373.1
4828.8116
2002/01
2174.435
6.536769379
7110694282
10,498.7
5008.7086
2002/02
2578.08
-0.63608493
7523677198
10,601.9
6067.5055
2002/03
2552.8111
-0.512402832
7517032580
10,701.7
6087.7807
2002/04
2509.122
0.024322903
7670055408
10,766.9
6472.2487
2003/01
3170.1267
6.634777958
7367050447
10,887.4
3904.4675
2003/02
3904.6473
-1.296168524
7539706233
11,011.6
5426.8043
2003/03
4128.1167
-1.148752452
7535289460
11,255.1
2929.2677
2003/04
3935.7957
-0.067788481
7781167392
11,414.8
4318.073
2004/01
3733.8612
6.992872665
7620258155
11,589.9
9122.7049
2004/02
4968.6377
-1.3293287
7823421276
11,762.9
4052.2383
2004/03
5028.0246
-0.672167033
7871310096
11,936.3
3096.272
2004/04
4601.2245
0.455620164
8133297810
12,123.9
7539.2968
2005/01
4487.5229
6.039053452
7773298608
12,361.8
6287.8145
2005/02
5733.8606
-1.224975725
8117334064
12,500.0
5854.4909
2005/03
5785.514
-1.182860465
8141697897
12,728.6
5295.1793
2005/04
5681.3734
-0.388266472
8424010420
12,901.4
4913.9955

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Periodo

MILES DE MILLONES91 DIAS

Anlisis de los residuales

Promedio de los cuadrados

Promedio de los cuadrados

Promedio de los cuadrados

Promedio de los cuadrados

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

Anlisis de los residuales

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%

PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO DE

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Coeficientes Error tpico

Anlisis de los residuales

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Pronstico para Y Residuos

Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Error tpico Estadstico t

Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Superior 95% Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10

Hay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la inflacion

CION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

Hay una correlacin negativa entre la inversin y la tasa de inters

MENOR A 10 NO EXISTE PRESENCIA DE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

Hay una correlacin negativa entre el P

como el FIV (FACTOR DE INFLACION DE VARIANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CO

TAMBIEN USAR EL R2 DE TODAS LAS DEMAS

ay una correlacin negativa entre el PIB de Mxico y la tasa de inters

ANZA ES MENOR A 10 PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE NO EXISTE MULTICOLINEALIDAD

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