S&P Study Compares Funding And Liquidity Risks In Several Banking Systems Around The World

Primary Credit Analyst: Stefan Best, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-154; stefan.best@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: Hans Wright, London (44) 20-7176-7015; hans.wright@standardandpoors.com Media Contact: Sharon L Beach, London (44) 20-7176-3536; sharon.beach@standardandpoors.com

FRANKFURT (Standard & Poor's) July 18, 2013--Standard & Poor's said today that it has published an analysis of the funding and liquidity of selected banking systems around the world titled, "Despite Relatively Calmer Markets, Systemic And Specific Funding Risks For Banks Have Not Gone Away." "The global financial market crisis has revealed weaknesses in banks' funding and liquidity profiles," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Stefan Best. "Ever since, partly in a regulatory backlash, banks in parts of Europe and the U.S. have been gradually reducing funding mismatches, but contingent refinancing risks remain. Although most banking systems in other parts of the world have been less affected by the crisis, they are not insulated from emerging funding and liquidity risks in the event of unforeseen adverse scenarios and any sudden change of market sentiment." Banks in systems with fewer funding options due to moderately or less developed debt capital markets often display stronger metrics. Because better metrics may sometimes conceal other risks, these banks often require more conservative management of funding and liquidity mismatches. In addition, we see a risk that our metrics are worsening where loan growth is outpacing deposit growth or banks' ability to raise long-term funding in debt capital markets. In systems with well-developed debt capital markets, banks have greater

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S&P Study Compares Funding And Liquidity Risks In Several Banking Systems Around The World

funding options. However, we see at times that large rated banks' use of wholesale funding tends to increase refinancing risk and capital leverage because the tenor of debt issued often does not match the tenor or illiquidity of assets that need to be refinanced. Since 2010, we observe for several Western European systems and the U.S. an improving trend. This is a result of low asset growth and a rebalancing of balance sheets to comply with more stringent regulatory capital and liquidity requirements--as well as market expectations to meet these requirements ahead of time. This process has not yet been completed. In the eurozone, ongoing liquidity support buys time for troubled banks to restructure or recapitalize. It does not in itself fix a bank, nor does it restore long-term confidence among its depositors and investors. Stability in the access to and cost of funding for banks is still fragile, in our view. We could see more differentiation among banks based on our funding and liquidity assessments if this fragile stability crumbles. We are monitoring whether banks may take longer than we currently expect to reduce their dependence on central bank funding, and regulations become more relaxed in the final form or implementation and lead to less prudent management of refinancing and liquidity risk. Using banks' public disclosures as a starting point for funding and liquidity analysis, it is possible to differentiate refinancing risks for systems and banks and identify outliers. There are limitations to the data for our quantitative funding and liquidity ratios that we calculate and which inform our assessments. For a list of the ratios and assumptions we use, see "Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions," published July 17, 2013. Ultimately, the results require judgment to account for differences in disclosure, assessing contingent risks that are embedded in liabilities, banks' contingency planning, and authorities' ability to preserve or restore confidence in the system, which may include the prospect of ongoing liquidity support.

Additional Contact: Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; FIG_Europe@standardandpoors.com

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.globalcreditportal.com and at www.spcapitaliq.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225;

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S&P Study Compares Funding And Liquidity Risks In Several Banking Systems Around The World

Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow (7) 495-783-4009.

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