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February 2013
BelarusOverview
GeographicalPosition
Estonia Sweden Denmark Latvia Lithuania Minsk Russia
KeyIndicators(2012)
Area Population Currency(asof30.01.2013) Creditratings(M/S&P) GDP,USDbn GDPgrowthyoy GDPp percapita, p ,USDthsd Foreigntradeturnover,USDbn*9M2012 Industrialproduction, %ofGDP Inflation BudgetRevenues,USDbn Budget g Expenditures, p , USDbn BudgetBalance,%ofGDP 207,595 km 9.46mn BYR,1USD=8,650BYR B3 (Neg.)/B (Stab.) 63.0 1.5% 6.7 70.9 31.8% 21.8% 25.8 25.7 0.7% 23.8% 19.0%
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Belarus
G Germany Poland Ukraine
CzechRep. Slovakia Moldova Austria Hungary Romania Switzerland Slovenia Croatia It l Italy Serbia BiH Bulgaria Montenegro Macedonia
Turkey
Publicdebt,%ofGDP Externalpublicdebt,%ofGDP
KeyHistoricalEvents
SigningtheTreatyon EstablishingtheUnionState ofBelarusandRussia AgreeingonaUSD3.5bn IMFSBAprogram CreationoftheCustoms UnionofBelarus, KazakhstanandRussia CreationofaCommon EconomicSpaceofBelarus, KazakhstanandRussia
Independence
1991
Membershipin theCIS,IMFand WorldBank
1997
2000
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2014
WorldHockey championship inMinsk
Source:NationalStatisticalCommitteeoftheRepublicofBelarus,NationalBank Note:averageofficialUSDexchangeratesused:2,792.54Brfor1USDin2009,2,978.10Brfor1USDin2010,4,623.47BrforUSDin2011,8,267.52Brfor1USDfor9M2012
InvestmentHighlights
Welldiversifiedeconomywith focusonindustrialproduction
Oneofthemostqualified laborforceinEasternEurope
Activeforeigntradeplayer
Ability ytoabsorbexternalturbulence:
CreditMetricsComparison
GDPperCapita,USDthsd
48 4,8 4,4 3,1
MedianBB Belarus MedianB MedianB MedianBB Belarus
PublicDebt,%ofGDP
40,6 38 0 38,0 35,5
BudgetBalance,%ofGDP
05 0,5 3,1
GrossExternalDebt,%ofcurrentaccountinflows
93,3 83,4 4,2
Median ed a B Median ed a BB Belarus e a us
77,4
Belarus
MedianBB
MedianB
RatingUpgradeTriggers
BelarusfiscalmetricshaveappearedstrongrelativetoitsBrated peers.Itsfinancialbalancehas,since2002,consistentlyplacedit inthetophalfamongthe24currentlyBratedcountries Belarusseconomicstrengthbasedonthecountrysrelativelyhigh averageannualrealgrowthrate,adiversifiedindustrialsectorand highlevelsofpercapitaincome,whicharereflectedinaworkforce thatisgenerallywelleducatedand,thankstolowunemployment, maintainsstrongjobrelatedskills JULY4 4,2012 2012,M Moodys, d C Credit ditA Analysis l i
Source:SovereignRiskIndicators(S&P,December2012)basedon2012E
CreditMetricsComparison
GDPperCapita,USDthsd
4,4 05 0,5 2,4 Belarus 6thgroup(median) 35,5 45 1 45,1
Gen.Gov.Balance,%ofGDP
PublicDebt,%ofGDP
Belarus
6thgroup(median)
4,1 41
Belarus
6thgroup(median)
Currentaccountdeficit,%ofGDP
Int.Reserves,monthsof po ts imports
3
GrossExternalDebt,%of currentaccountinflows
Belarus
6thgroup(median)
77,4
97,5
Source:SovereignRiskIndicators(S&P,December2012)basedon2012E
MacroeconomicOverview
CPI,%YoY
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 13,1% 21,8 2012 2009 15,0% 2010 2011 9M2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 8,7% 5,652 5,031 0,3% 0 3%
For.ReserveAssets,USDmn
7,916 8,095
GrossExternalDebt,%ofGDP
62,3% 45,1% 51,6% 58,6%
Theauthoritiestighteningofeconomic policiesfromlate2011wassuccessfulin reducinginflationandstabilising theforeign exchangemarketduringthefirsthalfof 2012 DavidHofman Source:IMF,PressRelease 12/402, October2012
0,7%
2009
Source:NationalStatisticalCommittee, NationalBank,MinistryofFinance
EconomicGrowth
Developedanddiversifiedindustrialproduction Strongmarketpositionsinthefollowingindustries:
RealGDPGrowth,%YoY
7,7 5,5
15 1,5
Majorforeigntradepartners:Russia,EUand Asia/Africa
2011
2012E
AverageNominalMonthlyWages,USD
***
DecompositionofGDPGrowth**,%
1,8 425 8 425,8
***
406,6 350,2
***
0,5
0,5
0,4
0,1
339,0
***
2009
2010
2011
9M2012 *
Source:NationalStatisticalCommittee,MinistryofEconomy *Without Wi h taking ki i intoaccountprivate i small llsize i enterprises i **In2012.http://belstat.gov.by/homep/ru/indicators/pressrel/gdp_rgdp.php ***Thedollar equivalentiscalculatedaccording totheNationalStatistics CommitteemethodologywhichusestheweightedaveragerateoftheBelarusianrubleagainst thedollarinallsegmentsoftheforeignexchangemarket(publishedonthewebsiteoftheNationalBankofBelarus:2009:1USD=2,803.27BYR; 2010:1USD=2,993.74BYR;2011:1USD=5,605.84BYR)
Investments
FixedCapitalInvestments
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 Jan10 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Nominalinvestments(USDmn) Realinvestmentsgrowth(%YoY,RHS)
LendingunderGovernment Programs,%ofGDP
21,5% 12,5% 3,8%
2010
2011
2012E
FixedCapitalInvestmentsStructure bySources,%
14,0 35,8 16,7 , 26,1 Others
FixedCapitalInvestmentsStructure bySectors,%
Others 31,1 30,4 Construction
Bankingloans
11,0 13,0
41 1 41,1
16,1 2012
Source:NationalStatisticalCommittee(http://belstat.gov.by/homep/ru/indicators/doclad/2012_12/07.pdf),NationalBank
ForeignTrade
CurrentAccountBalance,USDmn
6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2009 2010 2011 9M2011 9M2012
Export/ImportFXFlows,USDmn
60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 2009 2010 2011 9M2011 9M2012 Netflows
Secondaryincome Tradebalance
PrimaryIncome Currentaccountbalance
Importpayments
Exportinflows
ImportedEnergyPrices
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 45,0 2009 40,4 56,1 53,8 187,6 147,8 165,6 265,5
CESExportOpportunities
CompliancewithWTOprinciples Integratedoil,gasandtelecommarket F movement Free tof fcapital it land dworkforce kf Coordinationofmacroeconomicandindustrialpolicy, unificationofexchangearrangements Technicalregulation Commonprinciplesofregulationinthefieldofprotection anddefenseofintellectualpropertyrights, etc. Catalystforreforms,competitivenessdevelopment and dsustainable i bl policy li mix i
TheCustomsUnionofRussia,BelarusandKazakhstanisthefirstsuccessful exampleinregionaleconomicintegrationbetweencountriesoftheformer SovietUnion.Potentiallytheunioncanbringfurtherbenefitssuchas improvedcrossborderinfrastructureandstrengthenedinstitutions S Source: EBRD EBRD,T Transition iti R Report t2012 IntegrationAcrossBorders,November2012
ExternalCapitalFlows
CapitalAccount,USDmn
4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2009 2010 2011 9M2011 9M2012 2009
FDI(USDbn)
FDIInflow
39 3,9 2,6 6,6
0,7 2011
FDI/GDP(%)
Portfolioinvestments Otherinvestments
Derivatives Directinvestments
InvestorProtectionRanking*
Country New Zealand Singapore Hong Kong Kazakhstan Rank2013 #1 #2 #3 #10 2013/2011 RankChange g (#1) (#2) (#3) 34(#44)
Belarus
RussianFederation Ukraine
#82
#117 #117
27 (#109)
24 (#93) 6 (#109)
EconomicPolicyPriorities
D D D
Macroeconomicstabilisation/inflationdecrease Consistencyandpredictabilityofmacroeconomicpolicy Preservationofsustainablelongtermgrowth:
D D D
MonetaryPolicyObjectives
LatestAchievements 1 2 3 4 Inflationratedecrease Economicimbalancesreduction Exchangeratestabilisation Financialstability ypreservation p Guidelines
Inflationreduction Flexibleexchangeratemechanismbased onmarketsupplyanddemandwithlimited participationoftheNationalBank Financialinstitutionsrefinancing onmarketconditions Maintenanceofinflationadjustedpositive realinterestrates
InflationRateDecrease
109 110 107 106 101 106 92 81 80 61 44 33 11 13 14 18 48 69 66 56 39 31 23 22
InflationandRefinanceRateDynamicsin2012
45,0 44,0 38 0 38,0 36,0 35,0 33,3 31,6 30,7 30,2 30,0
22,8
27,6 15,6
21.6 20,4
16,8
Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Inflation %YoY Inflation,
Jan12
Jul12
11
MonetaryDiscipline
BYR/USDExchangeRate Dynamics
Fullymarketablenationalexchangerate Interventions maybeconductedtomitigatesharp currencyfluctuations Internationalreservesaresubjecttofurtherincrease bymeansof: Positiveforeigntradebalance FDIattraction Privatisation receipts
Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13
Theauthoritiesunifiedtheexchangerateandintroducedaflexible exchangerateregimeinOctober2011.Sincemid2011theyhave alsopursuedfiscalandincomerestraintandtightenedmonetary policy ThesepolicieshaverestoredFXmarkets, policy. markets reducedinflation andthecurrentaccountdeficit,andledtoanincreaseinreserves Source:IMF,CountryReport12/113,May2012
InternationalReservesandM2Development
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan09 May09 Sep09 Jan10 May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 Jan13 InternationalReserveAssets,USDmn M2,USDmn*
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BankingSector
BankingSectorhighlights*: #ofbanks 32(27withforeigncapitalparticipation) assets t USD37 37.5 5bn b (60.9% (60 9%of fGDP) loans USD23.6bn (38.3%ofGDP) deposits USD16.9bn (27.4%ofGDP) capital USD5.4bn (8.9%ofGDP) CAR 20.8%vs.8%regulatoryfloor ROA 1.82%
Deposits bycustomertype*
5% % 12% 29% 54%
Loans byborrowertype*
1% 20% 46% 33%
BankingSectorRates
80%
CapitalAdequacyRatioandNPLRatio*
5,5% 4 2% 4,2% 3 5% 3,5% 4,2% ,
60% 40% 20% 0% Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Interbankmarketinterestrate Refinancingrate
36,2% 30,0%
19,8%
20,5%
24,7%
20,8%
Dec09
Dec11
Dec12 NPLRatio
Source:NationalStatisticalCommittee,NationalBank(http://www.nbrb.by/statistics/Dynamic,http://www.nbrb.by/statistics/PrStavkiN) *Asof31Dec.2012
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PublicSectorBudget
RevenuesStructurein2012*
Oth 7.7% Others 7 7% Taxonprofit8.8% Personalincome tax9.2% Nontaxrevenues 9.0% Excise5.3% VAT21.3%
ExpendituresStructurein2012*
Others Ot e s7.1% . % National defense2.3% Social expenditures6.3% Healthcare9.7% Generalpublic expenditures12.5% Debtservice payments4.2% Utilitiesand housebuilding5.4% FSPP26.8%
USD 25.8bn
FSPP27.0% Exportduties11.8%
USD 25.7bn
PublicSectorBudget,%ofGDP
45,7% 46,4% , 41,5% 43 3% 43,3% 38,7% 0,7% 1,8% 1 8% 2009 2010 Revenue,%ofGDP 2011 Expenses,%ofGDP 2012E BudgetBalance 2013F 2,8% 35,9% 40,7% 40,0% 0,7% 39,7% 39,6% 0.1%
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FiscalPolicyGuidelines
D D D D
Macroeconomicstabilitytoremainthemaintargetoffiscalpolicy Executionofnondeficitalllevelsbudgets Manageablepublicdebtlevel Budgetconsolidation: tight g economy yofbudget g organisations g limitationofpubliccapitalexpenditures containingrealwagegrowth(takingintoaccounttherealeconomicgrowth) increaseofrecoveryratefortheutilitiesandtransportservices state t t enterprises t i revenuegrowth thamid idrecovering i economy
Mediumtermfiscalceilings:
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PublicDebt Overview
Asof31.12.2012theexternalpublicdebtwas $12.0bn or19.0%ofGDP(vs.$11.8bn or20.1%ofGDPasof31.12.2011) Externalpublicdebtraisingaimedateconomicpotentialdeveloping Maincharacteristicsofexternalpublicdebt: 42.8% officialandmultilateral(IFI) loans** shareofprojectfinancingloans 15.8%** averagematurity 4.7years*** averageinterestrate 3.7%***
GrossPublicDebt*,%ofGDP
Maastrichtcriterium 60% Legislativeceiling 45%
ExternalandDomesticPublicDebt*,USD bn
2,1 11,8 3,0 12,0 2,0 14,4
1,2 18,1% 2009 18,8% 2010 24,9% 2011 23,8% 2012 24,0% 2013E 7,9 2009
2011
2012
2013E
ExternalPublicDebt
InternalPublicDebt
ExternalPublicDebt*,%ofGDP
16,4% , % 17,8% 20,1% 19,0% 20,6%
ExternalPublicDebtSpendings*, USDbn
9,6 6,9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 1,0 , 2009 8,5 10,4 10,1 1,9 2012 Nonbinding 4,8 2013E
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ExternalDebtPortfolio
ExternalDebtRecipients*
Nonfinancial sector44.0% Monetary authorities1.3%
ExternalPublicDebtSources
Outstandingdebt,USDbn IMF A icrisis Anti i i Fund dEurAsEC A C IBRD Bonds Venezuela NuclearPower Plant Chinese banks USA(TCC) Russia Total
*** **
3.03 1 68 1.68 0.42 1.80 0.32 0 09 0.09 1.62 0.04 3.00 12.00
B k 15.9% Banks 15 9%
ExternalPublicDebtTypes (asof31.12.2012)
Bonds15.0% International credits42.8%
Bilateralloans42.2%
Source:MinistryofFinancecalculationsasof31.12.2012,NationalBank * Asof30.09.2012,NationalBank **SignedcreditagreementforuptoUSD3 bnin6tranchestill 2013.MembersofEurAsEC:Belarus,Kazakhstan,KyrgyzRepublic,Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan; Observes:Armenia,Moldova,Ukraine.AnticrisisFundEurAsEC hereinafterreferredtoasACFEurAsEC *** SignedcreditagreementforuptoUSD10bn
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