Political Update Presentation

There has been a significant shift in attitudes
regarding the mood of the country.

All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction,
or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
100%
83% 82% 84% 81%

80% Wrong Track
63%
60% 56% 56%
40%
40% 36%
31%
20%
12% 13% 15%
11% Right Direction
0%
20 21
20 -9
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20 er
20 er
20 er
20 ch
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Political Update May 2009 3
Obama has an approval rating on par with
other Presidents after the first 100 days.
Presidential Job Approval After Approximately 100 Days
87%
78% 80%
72%
67%
60% 63% 63%
53% 56%
52%
34%
30% 32%
18% 19% 18%
10% 9% 12%
3% 6%
Ap Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds
n*
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^ Data from Gallup Polls * Data from NBC/WSJ Polls

President Obama’s edge, like President
Reagan’s, is the percent who “strongly
approve” of the job he is doing.
% “Strongly Approve”
Reagan
Very high “strongly
approve” ratings Bush (41)
usually decline before
overall approval
ratings drop. Clinton
Bush (43)
*Reagan number from ABC News/Washington Post data Feb. 1981
*Bush (41) number from ABC News/Washington Post Feb. 1989
*Clinton number from ABC News/Washington Post data Feb. 1993
*Bush (43) number from Pfizer/RGA data Feb. 2001
Obama
*Obama number from POS 100-Day National data Apr. 2009

Republicans and Democrats hardly see
“eye-to-eye” on the President.
Barack Obama: Job Approval
By Party 94%
63 pt. gap
75%
62% Strongly
60%
43%
Strongly
31% 33%
32%
Strongly
22%
Strongly
5%
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
GOP Ind Dem
(30%) (32%) (37%)

Voters still don’t show Congress much love.
U.S. Congress: Job Approval
76%
70%
62%
55% 54% 56% 57%
51%
41% 40% 39% 40% 43% 39%
34% Strg 37%
31%36%
Strg
Strg
Strg
31% 30%
26% 27% Strg Strg 21% 19%
Strg Strg
App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis
Feb. Mar. Jul. Jan. Feb. Sep. Oct. Apr.
2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009

Note that WP poll shows scores for both
“Democrats in Congress” and “Republicans
in Congress” have slipped.
The Democrats in Congress: The Republicans in Congress:
Job Approval Job Approval
Feb. 22, 2009 Apr. 24, 2009 Feb. 22, 2009 Apr. 24, 2009
64%
56%
50% 49%
44% 45%
38%
30%
App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis

Total Total Total Total
Data from a Washington Post/ABC national survey of 1,072 adults, conducted April 21-24, 2009.
More WP: We’re better off posting up
against “Democrats in Congress.”
How much confidence to you have in [ITEM] to make the right decisions for the country’s future -
a great deal of confidence, a good amount, just some or none at all?
Barack Obama Democrats in Congress
60% 63%
40%
36%
31% 25%
Great deal None at all
15% 12%
None at all Great deal
Great deal/ Just some/ Great deal/ Just some/
Good amount None at all Good amount None at all
Total Total
Data from a Washington Post/ABC national survey of 1,072 adults, conducted April 21-24, 2009.
Especially when Pelosi and Reid have
these numbers.
Now, I would like to read you a list of various national public figures, and for each one,
please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven’t
heard of them, just tell me and we’ll move on.
Nancy Pelosi Harry Reid
44%
35%
27% Very 24%
14% 17%
Very
Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable

Total Total
Data from a Hotline national survey of 800 Registered Voters, conducted April 23-26, 2009.

Not surprisingly, Democratic Congressional
leaders are considered out of step with
voters’ political ideology.
54%
Ideology of Electorate
44%
41%
28%
12% Ideology of Democratic

leaders in Congress
13%
Conservative Moderate Liberal

The generic Congressional ballot shows the
GOP candidate just four points back.
And, if the 2010 election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote...
The Republican Candidate

...or...
The Democratic Candidate
-10 -9 -10 -1 -3 -4
43% 43% 45%

39% 42% 37%
41%
33% 34% 35% 35% 36%
28%
23% Def
Def
GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM
2006* 2007* 2008* March 14, April 9, April 21,
2009 2009 2009
* Merged data from all national surveys conducted by POS in the indicated year.
Note the wide gender gap.
And, if the 2010 Election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote...
The GOP Candidate

...or...
The Democratic Candidate
Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people.
By Gender
47%
42%
34% 32%
33%
25% 21% Very
23%
Very Very
Very
GOP DEM GOP DEM
Men Women
(48%) (52%)

The gender gap crosses generational lines.
Younger voters remain a huge challenge for us.
Generic Ballot by Gender/Age
-1% +26% +12% -40% -6% -21%
65%
55%
45% 49%
41% 42% 43%
33% 37%
29% 25% 28%
Men 18-34 Men 35-54 Men 55+ Women 18-34 Women 35-54 Women 55+
(9%) (20%) (19%) (12%) (21%) (19%)
GOP Candidate Dem Candidate

Regionally, the GOP has seen some improvement in the
Midwest, but still has major problems in the Northeast.
Generic Ballot by Region
-15% 0% +5% -5%
46% 43% 46%

40% 40% 38% 41%
31%
Northeast Midwest South West

(22%) (22%) (34%) (22%)
GOP Candidate Dem Candidate

By a wide margin, voters say their 2010 vote for
Congress will be for a candidate who can be a
“check and balance to Barack Obama and the
Democrats in Congress.”
And, thinking some about the election for U.S. Congress, for whom would you vote between...
A Congressional candidate who will help Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress pass their agenda.
…or… A Congressional candidate who can be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats.
56%
34%
Check and balance to Help Obama and Democrats

Obama and Democrats pass their agenda
Total

This is a particularly potent sentiment
among Independents.
And, thinking some about the election for U.S. Congress, for whom would you vote between...
A Congressional candidate who will help Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress pass their agenda.
…or… A Congressional candidate who can be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats.
87% By Party
62%
57%
31%
27%
8%
Check and Help pass Check and Help pass Check and Help pass
balance agenda balance agenda balance agenda
GOP IND DEM
(30%) (32%) (37%)

A majority of voters agree that since Dems control
Congress and the Presidency, “it would be good to
have more checks and balances in Washington by
electing more Republicans to Congress.”
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
Since Democrats have complete control of Congress and the Presidency, it would be good to
have more checks and balances in Washington by electing more Republicans to Congress.
54%
45%
37%
Strongly
26%
Strongly
Agree Disagree
Total

Note the strong agreement among Independents,
seniors and generic ballot undecideds.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
Since Democrats have complete control of Congress and the Presidency, it would be good to
have more checks and balances in Washington by electing more Republicans to Congress.
61%
55% 53%
43% 46% 44%
Strongly 36%
35%
Strongly 28%
23% 26%
Strongly Strongly 19%
Strongly
Strongly
Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

Independent Age 65+ Generic Ballot Und.
(32%) (19%) (21%)

Even The Democracy Corps’ recent
battleground poll confirms this message.
Now I’m going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair,
please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to
your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Every Republican in Congress voted against President Obama’s budget because
they are trying to obstruct Obama’s agenda and playing politics. ...OR...
Every Republican in Congress voted against President Obama’s budget because
they disagree with Obama and want to provide checks and balances.
Total Democratic Districts
51% 52%
43% 41%
Obstruct Obama Checks & balances Obstruct Obama Checks & balances
Total DEM Districts
Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.
The average party out-of-power loss with a
double digit Misery Index is 22 House seats.
10.1%
8.34%
6.86%
Change Midterms Status Quo Midterms March

13 of 15 2 of 15 2009
Average Misery Index

Talking About
Health Care

Start by connecting to how people feel about the
current health care system: “America’s health care
system is broken and must be fixed.” Acknowledge
their concerns about getting/keeping affordable
coverage.
Talk about cost in terms of its impact on people and

families.
Talk about poor quality care caused by overuse,

misuse, waste, fraud, and doctors having to practice
defensive medicine which drives up health care costs.

Take advantage of the strong belief a health
system that puts its emphasis on keeping people
healthy would be less expensive.
Have an aspirational goal about the reason

controlling cost is so important. People easily
believe there is a link between high cost and the
inability to cover more people.

The Key “C-Words” of Health Care:

Something beats nothing.
When we test only the Democrats’ positions
and the GOP rebuttal, this was
effective.
Republicans have to have a plan.

After rating each individual element of the plan, overall,
68% favor/27% oppose a Republican health plan.
The Republican Health Care Plan Ranked By % Favor
Parts Of Health Care Plan % Favor % Oppose
Portability
Health insurance industry
cannot refuse or deny coverage
National Marketplace / AHPs
Medical Liability Reform
Health Savings Accounts

Focus group research and other surveys suggest there are
two elements that test well across every audience:
; Requiring health insurance companies to cover

pre-existing conditions.
; Providing small businesses with tax credits to help

provide health coverage to their employees.

Let’s be clear…
The Democrats are using our
language of choice, competition and
cost control as a means to sell a vast
expansion of the government’s role in
health care!

Support for a public plan collapses if there are stronger rules and regulations in
place to cover pre-existing medical conditions.
Establishing a new public health insurance plan
that is run by the government. In this plan the
government would set the rates it pays doctors
and hospitals, set prices for premiums and
determine which treatments it would cover.
The new public plan would guarantee coverage
for everyone. Public Plan
23% Don't Know/
Stronger Rules Refused*
Both*
… OR … and Regulations
Putting stronger rules and regulations on the
Neither
health care industry, such as requiring by law 9%
that health insurers must cover individuals with 66%
pre-existing medical conditions and stop
charging higher premiums to sick people.
Under this plan, everyone would be required to
have health insurance and there would be
health care tax credits to make sure it’s
affordable for working and middle-class
individuals.
*1% or less

The worst outcome is one which limits choice. The most likely thing to
happen is employers dropping coverage.
% Total Likely To % 0-3 Rating /
It would control costs by offering a one- Happen Worst Outcome
size-fits-all benefits package so it would
end up limiting your choice of doctors and
medical treatment options.
It would put America on the path toward

a completely government-run health care
system.
Employers, especially small businesses

would stop offering private health
coverage because now people could get
coverage through the public plan.

There is significant
concern about:
1) The role of Congress in developing a new government
health plan;
2) The drift towards a government-run system;
3) The consequence to Medicare, Medicaid, and the access to

care under the government plan; and,
4) The issue of displacement as millions of people would be

dropped from private coverage into the government plan.

What You Should Say When Asked About The Public Plan:
• It is a government-run health insurance plan.
• It is a one-size-fits-all benefits package that would limit your choice of doctors,
your choice of medical treatment options, and have the federal government
take over control of your health care.
• It would be designed by Congress. Use the example of Congress’ failed
intervention into the economy as helping financial firms instead or hard-
working Americans as a reason for them to stay out of health care.
• It will take us on a path to a government-run health care system which means
lower quality of care and rationing of care.
• You could end up not being able to see the doctor of your choice as the
government plan could reimburse doctors so little for their services they stop
accepting or dropping patients covered by the government plan.
• Millions of Americans will lose their good private health coverage and be
forced into a new government plan.

He’s clearly considered to the left of how voters
view themselves. (Fully 52% of voters consider
Obama to be on their ideological left.)
Ideology of Electorate 49%

44%
41%
34%
Ideology of Obama
11%
13%
Conservative Moderate Liberal

While a majority of voters say they support
President Obama’s policies, few voters are
confident they will work.
Which one of following best describes how you feel about President Obama and his economic policies?
I support Obama's economic policies and am confident they will work.
I support Obama's economic policies and hope they will work.
I support what Obama is trying to do on the economy, but I have doubts
whether his economic policies will work.
I oppose President Obama's economic policies.
43%
22% 21%
13%
Support, Support, Support,
confident hopeful have doubts Oppose
Total

Voter concerns about Obama focus on spending
that goes too far and taking on too many issues.
Now, regardless of whether you consider yourself to be a supporter of President Obama,
which one of the following, if any, concerns you the most about him...
He's trying to take on too many issues 26%
His proposals for increased government

spending go too far 26%
He's not winning bi-partisan support for

his policies 15%
His proposals will result in higher taxes 15%
He's too focused on foreign affairs 4%

His own base is worried about taking on too many
issues and not winning bi-partisan support, while
Republicans are more concerned about spending.
Now, regardless of whether you consider yourself to be a supporter of President Obama,
which one of the following, if any, concerns you the most about him...
GOP IND DEM

By Party (30%) (32%) (37%)
He's trying to take on too many issues 19% 29% 30%
His proposals for increased government

spending go too far 40% 27% 13%
He's not winning bi-partisan support for

his policies 6% 14% 25%
His proposals will result in higher taxes 25% 13% 8%
He's too focused on foreign affairs 4% 5% 4%

Voters have heard about the “Tea Party" protests
and are sympathetic to the goals and
objectives of the protests.
“How much have you seen, read or “And, how sympathetic are you to the
heard about last week's "Tea Party" goals and objectives of these "Tea
protests? Would you say...” Party" protests? Are you...”
Total A Lot/Some: 68% Total Sympathetic: 59%

Total Not Much/Nothing: 32% Total Not Sympathetic: 31%
A Lot Very
34% Sympathetic
Smwht 27%
Sympathetic
32%
Some
34% DK
Nothing At All 9%
12%
Not Very Not At All
Not Too Much Sympathetic
20% Sympathetic
13% 18%
And those Tea Parties? Their supporters are
more concerned with government spending.
Asked only of respondents saying they are “Very” or “Somewhat” sympathetic to
the goals and objectives of these “Tea Party” protests?
And, what concerns you more...

The possibility of your taxes going up ...or... Increased government spending and the national debt?
59%
31%
The possibility of your Increased government spending

taxes going up and the national debt
Total

More from Democracy Corps: Voters believe
Obama’s economic plan will add to the
budget deficit.
President Obama's economic plan will reduce the budget deficit in the long term. ...OR...
President Obama's economic plan will add to the budget deficit in the long term.
55% 58%
39% 37%
Reduce budget Add to budget Reduce budget Add to budget

deficit deficit deficit deficit
Total DEM Districts
And, voters ARE divided on spending.
Right now, it is necessary for the government to spend money in order to get us out of the recession
and put our economy on the road to recovery, even if it means larger short-term deficits. ...OR...
Right now, the government should not be spending so much money because the increased deficits
and long-term debt will prolong the recession and damage our economy in the long run.
49% 48% 47% 49%
Spending Should not be Spending Should not be

necessary spending so much necessary spending so much
Total DEM Districts
That reinforces the recent NBC/WSJ polling
regarding the “role of government.”
I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to know which
one comes closer to your point of view.
Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.,
...or...
Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people.
62%
52% 55% 53%
51% 48% 51%
45% 45%47% 46%47%
41%43% 40% 38%
42% 42% 40%
32%
Dec. Dec. Jan. Mar. Sep. Jul. Sep. Oct. Feb. Apr.
1995 1997 2002 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,005 adults, conducted April 23-26, 2009.
The D’s best messages – Veterans and
Alternative Energy
(ASK ONLY IN DEMOCRATIC-HELD DISTRICTS) Now let me read you some statements some people make
about (House Incumbent). After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH MORE LIKELY to
support (House Incumbent), SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE
LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support (House Incumbent)?
After years of seeing our veterans come home

to inadequate health care, education and job
opportunities, (Democratic House Incumbent)
helped pass a budget that provides the largest
increase in veterans benefits in history. It
45% 69%
expands veterans education so they can find Much More Total More
jobs and provides timely and high quality care
to 500,000 low-income veterans who were
previously ineligible for care from the V.A.
(Democratic House Incumbent) voted for and

passed an economic recovery package that
includes investments that will double the
nation's supply of alternative energy, create 40% 59%
300,000 clean energy jobs that can never be Much More Total More
shipped overseas and make America the world
leader in alternative energy like wind and solar.
Our best hits against the D’s – Spending and
Middle Class Tax Hike
(ASK ONLY IN DEMOCRATIC-HELD DISTRICTS) Now let me read you some statements some people make
about (House Incumbent). After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH LESS LIKELY to
support (House Incumbent), SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, NO LESS LIKELY
or MORE LIKELY to support (House Incumbent)?
(Democratic House Incumbent) has voted for

1.2 trillion in new spending in the last two
months alone, that's over 1 billion dollars in
new spending every hour. Now (he/she) is 46% 61%
supporting a budget with a trillion dollar deficit Much Less
that will leave mountains of debt for our Total Less
grandchildren to pay, money that America is
borrowing from China and the Middle East.
(Democratic House Incumbent) and the

Democrats in Congress say that they've
supported an investment in alternative energy
but what they really voted for was a massive 57%
tax on the middle class. The Democrats' energy
44%
plan will cost every middle class American who Much Less Total Less
turns on a light switch or drives a car $3,100 a
year in additional taxes.
These plans lay the foundation for long-term
prosperity by…
Reforming health care to bring costs down for
consumers and businesses,
Investing in education so our children can
compete in the world market,
And, making America the leader in renewable
energy so the jobs and industries of the future
are built right here, not in China or India
- all while putting us on a path toward fiscal
sustainability by cutting the deficit in half over the
next four years.
With all of the bailouts, the trillion-dollar stimulus bill
and now the four trillion dollar budget Obama and the
Democrats are…
Spending too much,
Taxing too much,
And, borrowing too much.
They pay for all this spending by implementing the

largest tax increase in American history and borrowing
from nations like China, tripling our debt in the next ten
years and saddling our children and grandchildren with
massive problems in the years to come.
The GOP edges the Democrat.
I'd like you to tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND
statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Path to fiscal Spending too much

sustainability
47% 49%
40%
33% Strongly
Strongly
Democratic Statement Republican Statement

Total
One of our challenges: most voters believe we
simply oppose whatever Obama proposes.
Do you believe that the Republican party has offered credible policy
alternatives to President Obama's economic programs. ...or...
Do you believe that Republicans have a policy of simply opposing
whatever Obama proposes.
52%
38%
Offered credible Simply oppose whatever

policy alternatives Obama proposes
Total

We need to be patient. Obama’s numbers have
slipped with both GOPers and Independents,
but it will be a long time before he drops with
Democrats.
People like the President personally, and

want to see him succeed.
Voters like Obama much more than they like his

policies. (Stimulus package still losing
support.)

Trying to take on too much too quickly may
help unravel this administration.
D’s in Congress not sharing in the Obama

glow. (Make THEM your target.)
However, GOPers are already better off now

than we were in November…or January

There IS relevancy for a GOP "Watchdog" role
(spending and security).
"Out-of-control spending" setting table for

GOP "check and balance" message.
Skepticism toward government remains,
but voters give government more leeway
right now to see if it can effect change.
Voters will soon tire of government

spending from which they derive no benefit.

For more information, please contact us at:
214 North Fayette Street
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
Phone: (703) 836-7655 • Fax: (703) 836-8117

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There has been a significant shift in attitudes

regarding the mood of the country.

83% 82% 84% 81%

^ Data from Gallup Polls * Data from NBC/WSJ Polls

Political Update May 2009 5

Political Update May 2009 6

Political Update May 2009 8

App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis

Nancy Pelosi Harry Reid

Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable

Political Update May 2009 11

12% Ideology of Democratic

Conservative Moderate Liberal

Political Update May 2009 12

The Republican Candidate

43% 43% 45%

The GOP Candidate

GOP DEM GOP DEM

Political Update May 2009 14

-1% +26% +12% -40% -6% -21%

Political Update May 2009 15

-15% 0% +5% -5%

46% 43% 46%

Northeast Midwest South West

Political Update May 2009 16

Check and balance to Help Obama and Democrats

Political Update May 2009 18

Political Update May 2009 19

Political Update May 2009 21

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

Political Update May 2009 22

Change Midterms Status Quo Midterms March

Political Update May 2009 24

Political Update May 2009 25

Talk about cost in terms of its impact on people and

Talk about poor quality care caused by overuse,

Political Update May 2009 26

Have an aspirational goal about the reason

Political Update May 2009 27

Political Update May 2009 28

Republicans have to have a plan.

Political Update May 2009 29

Parts Of Health Care Plan % Favor % Oppose

Medical Liability Reform

Health Savings Accounts

Political Update May 2009 30

; Requiring health insurance companies to cover

; Providing small businesses with tax credits to help

Political Update May 2009 31

Political Update May 2009 32

Political Update May 2009 33

It would put America on the path toward

Employers, especially small businesses

Political Update May 2009 34

2) The drift towards a government-run system;

3) The consequence to Medicare, Medicaid, and the access to

4) The issue of displacement as millions of people would be

Political Update May 2009 35

Political Update May 2009 36

Ideology of Electorate 49%

Conservative Moderate Liberal

Political Update May 2009 38

Political Update May 2009 39