Global Warming: Dodging the Silver Bullet

David G. Hawkins, NRDC February 2004

The Fundamentals
Global warming is a decadeslong problem. BUT we cant fix it unless we start now. Delay increases disruption. Silver bullets will not work. Voluntary programs arent enough.
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Four Simple Facts

Stabilizing concentrations is essential Stabilization is impossible with current emission trends Conventional coal investments would lock in high cumulative carbon emissions Clean energy investments are a fraction of likely needs
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Carbon Deficit Spending Do the Math

Energy carbon emissions in year 2000 = 6.3 billion metric tons Removal to oceans, soils, trees = 3.1 billion metric tons Net buildup in air = 3.2 billion metric tons
Annual Carbon Debt Growth 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Carbon Carbon Carbon In Out Debt Billion tonnes carbon
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Bush Administration Committed to Stabilization

I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's (sic) central goal, to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate.
President George W. Bush, February 14, 2002
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Stabilization Requires a Budget

1600
Billion tonnes Carbon

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 450 550

ppm 650

1900-2100

750
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The Budget is Disappearing

Cumulative carbon emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)
Today
2010

Spent Remaining
283 531 375 439

2020

2030

2040

492

322

638

176

809

Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization

New Global Coal Plants--Catch the Wave or Miss the Wave?

800 700 G W Coal 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1999-2009
29 145

710 483
128 247 58 75 206

RoW EU India China US&Can

249
72 4

54 44 160

97 2010-2019

124 2020-2030
8 2002 Source: IEA, WEO

Incremental new coal by decade

Required Clean Energy Build Rates

1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1.5 2 3 BAU build rate (80 MW/day)

Climate Sensitivity lowest mid-range highest

MW/day

Equilibrium Global Warming (deg. C)

Sources: Caldeira, et al, Science, 3/28/03 and IEA, WEO 2002

Delay Increases Disruption

U.S. CO2 Emission Paths
3,500 3,000 Million Tonnes Carbon 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
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WRE 450 WRE 550 WRE 650 NETL 2003 BAU Delay 550

Silver Bullets Wont Work

Wont work politically: zero-sum game politics will block adequate support.
Need paradigm of mutual support for portfolio of low and zero-carbon options: efficiency, renewables, CCS

Work wont technically: task too large to be achieved with one technique.
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Silver Bullet Thought Experiment

New NETL Pathway Study:
Limit U.S. CO2 emissions to current levels of about 1.6 Gt of carbon by 2025; Cut U.S. CO2 emissions to 1 Gt of carbon by 2050, and 67% reduction in non-CO2 GHGs.

What if only CCS were used to achieve the carbon reductions?

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FUTURE U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS UNDER ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION

3,500 Annual GHG Emissions (MMtCe) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
Note: Curves are CO2 only.

BAU/Reference NETL 2003 WR E 550 ppm NETL 2004

0 1990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
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Sources: Kuuskraa & Dipietro, Nov. 2003; NRDC, May 2003; DOE/NETL, 2003.

Sources of Reductions in NETL Pathway (MMTCE)

Electric CCS Other CCS Electric EERE Other (stationary) EERE Transportation EE 500 120 280 160 450 480
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Non-CO2 GHG
Source: Kuuskraa & Dipietro, Nov. 2003.

Impact of No EERE Progress on CCS Requirements by 2050

Gigawatts coal capacity with CCS
800 700 600 500 84 400 146 300 200 100 262 262 235

CCS on all existing & all new coal; plus new coal for auto fuels

No EERE Transport No EERE Other No Elec. EERE Core CCS

Portfolio

Silver Bullet

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No Policy = No Market
IGCC may only become broadly competitive with PC and NGCC plants under a CO2restricted scenario. Therefore, vendors currently do not have an adequate economic incentive to invest R&D dollars in IGCC advancement. Similarly, power companies are not likely to pay the premium to install todays IGCC designs in the absence of clear regulatory direction on the CO2 issue. National Coal Council Report, May 2003
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Policy Matters!

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An Action Program
Act now to increase energy efficiency Act now to increase renewable energy Develop and deploy systems to capture and store carbon from fossil energy Accelerate use of new transportation fuels: coal with CO2 capture and renewables both can be big winners. Framework: targeted financial support for advanced technology deployment combined with mandatory limits on carbon emissions.
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Oil Importsa Growing Problem

Oil Imports--U.S. & China
30 25

China US 7.5 5.9 4.2 2.9 2 11.5 13.8 16.2 17.7 19.8

Million Bbls/day

20 15 10 5 0
2001 2005 2010

1.7

10.6

2015

2020

2025

Source: U.S. EIA, Intl Energy Outlook, 2003

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Whats Wrong With This Picture?

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