PAKISTAN

POL PA
Price (at 06:12, 13 Mar 2013 GMT) 12-month target Upside/Downside Valuation
- Sum of Parts

Outperform Rs462.18
Rs % Rs 577.55 25.0 577.55 Energy 109,327 0.7 1,117 236.5

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Play on growth, yield and exploration
Event
With significant earnings upgrades over FY13-F15E on the back of successful

GICS sector Market cap Rsm 30-day avg turnover US$m Market cap US$m Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals
Year end 30 Jun Revenue EBIT EBIT growth Reported profit EPS rep EPS rep growth PER rep Total DPS Total div yield Net debt/equity P/BV

appraisal drillings, favourable exchange rate movement and firm oil prices, we upgrade Pakistan Oilfields to Outperform from Neutral. We lift our TP 33% to Rs577.55 (implied FY15E P/E of 7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x). With the current price barely reflecting the DCF value of existing reserves, we contend POL offers attractive optionality on future appraisal, exploration and gas price hikes.

Impact
Strong uptrend in volume & earnings via monetization of recent finds.

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E m 28,624 30,616 38,696 44,107 m 16,800 17,189 24,205 28,054 % 16.1 2.3 40.8 15.9 m 11,853 12,628 16,801 19,387 Rs 50.11 53.38 71.03 81.96 % 9.6 6.5 33.1 15.4 x 9.2 8.7 6.5 5.6 Rs 52.50 50.00 59.00 75.00 % 11.4 10.8 12.8 16.2 % -35.8 -30.1 -33.7 -40.0 x 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.4

We contend POLs earnings are poised to undergo a strong uptrend (3-yr EPS CAGR of 18%) via monetization of four recent finds in the high-prospect Tal block (3-yr volume CAGR of 9%) . We believe our conservative volume estimates leave room for upside potential via clarity on reserve estimates from recent finds and development plans.
Exploration appeal via low-risk drilling program. POL looks set to continue

POL PA rel Pakistan KSE 100 Share performance, & rec history

its low-risk exploration program focused on onshore producing areas. Drillings in two new prospects in Tal block (success ratio of 75% since 2001) in 2013 assume high importance.
High cash payout set to continue. Growing double-digit D/Y, largely dollar

hedged; is a key investment feature which sets POL apart from its local and regional peers. We estimate FCF to grow from Rs44/sh in CY12 to Rs79/sh by CY15E. A comfortable cash position and manageable capex program mean POL can afford to maintain ~95% cash payout over the medium term, in our view.

Earnings and target price revision

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

We lift our FY14-FY16 EPS estimates by 11-20% but cut our FY13 estimate

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2013 (all figures in PKR unless noted)

by 9%. We set a new TP of Rs577.55 on revised EPS estimates. Our FY14/FY15 estimates are now 10% ahead of consensus.
FX and oil price assumptions revised up. We have made three key

changes: (1) upward revision to our volume estimates based on successful appraisal drillings in Tal block; (2) reflected sharper Rs devaluation against the US dollar; and (3) lifted realized oil prices by 13-20%.

Price catalyst
12-month price target: Rs577.55 based on a Sum of Parts methodology. Catalyst: Favourable progress on likely upside to gas prices on key asset,

Analyst(s)
James Hubbard, CFA +852 3922 1226 james.hubbard@macquarie.com

Clarity on development plans on Tal block, result of exploration drilling.

Foundation Securities
Mohammad Fawad Khan,CFA +92 21 3563 5012 Fawad.Khan@fs.com.pk

Action and recommendation

We rate POL Outperform based on sound fundamentals and an attractive

14 March 2013 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited

valuation (25% potential upside to our TP). Even after a 41% price jump in 12 months, we believe POLs valuation is attractive at FY15E EV/EBITDA of 2.4x and double-digit D/Y of 16%.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Analysis
Combo of growth, yield and exploration play With significant earnings upgrades over FY13-F15E on the back of successful appraisal drillings, favourable exchange rate movement and firm oil prices, we upgrade Pakistan Oilfields to Outperform. We lift our FY14-FY16 EPS estimates by 11-20% but cut our FY13 estimate by 9%. We lift our TP by 33% to Rs577.55, based on new earnings/cash flow outlook.

Fig 1
New Old Changes

EPS estimate revisions

2012A 50.11 2013E 53.38 58.94 -9.40% 2014E 71.03 63.79 11.30% 2015E 81.96 68.61 19.50% TP 577.55 435.6 32.60%

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

We have based our estimate changes on revisions in three key assumptions: 1) We have adjusted our future exchange rate assumption to incorporate actual movement in the exchange rate in 1HFY13. The Pak Rupee has depreciated by 4% in 1H versus our full-year estimate of 3%. Further 2-3% depreciation cannot be ruled out. Our long-term assumption for the Pak Rupee devaluation remains at 3%. 2) We have calibrated our oil price assumptions to reflect the view of the Macquarie Commodities team. Our earlier forecasts were based on Foundation Securities in-house assumptions. This has resulted in upward revision to our oil price estimates by 2/13/19% for FY13/14/15E. 3) We have fine-tuned our volume estimates from different fields in light of results of two successful appraisal drillings in Tal block. We have adjusted our FY13 earnings to account for 1HFY13 results and the latest trends in production. This results in a 9% downward revision in FY13E earnings.

What underpins our Outperform rating?

We believe POL offers attractive optionality on possible upside from the companys future appraisal, exploration program, clarity on reserves booking on recent finds and gas price hikes on a key asset. We rate POL Outperform with a revised target price of Rs577.55, reflecting potential upside of 25%. We base our Outperform rating on the following grounds: #1) Attractive Valuation Even after a 41% price increase in 12 months, we believe POLs current price does not fully reflect its strong earnings and cash flow outlook. We believe undervaluation is evident at three levels: Absolute As per our estimates, POLs current price barely reflects the DCF value of existing reserve of Rs478/sh. Our revised TP of Rs577.55/sh suggests 25% upside from the current price and implies FY15E P/E of 7.0x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x. POL offers FY13E D/Y of 11% which is one of the highest among its local peers. Unlike most of its local peers, POL offers superior earnings growth and an effective exchange rate hedge Regional On regional comparisons, POL is attractively placed on most counts. Compared to regional names, the stock trades at discounts of 29% and 30% on 2014E P/E and EV/EBITDA (close-peers considered), respectively, versus the 42% discount that KSE-100 index trades versus its peers. We believe the considerable discount is unjustified given POLs superior volume and earnings growth and attractive dividend yield. For the same reason, we believe POL can afford to trade at a premium to KSE-100 valuation (see table below).

14 March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

SOTP-based valuation at 577.55

We value POL at Rs577.55/sh based on a sum-of-the-parts method which takes into account POLs future cash flows, POLs current balance sheet position (investment + surplus cash) and exploration value. Our key assumptions are: 1) a long-term oil price assumption of US$110/bbl (Arab Light); 2) cost of equity of 18.7%; and 3) a 25-year production profile for POLs current reserves (no terminal value is assumed). Resources. This is an estimated value of Rs2.8bn for the Tolanj find made in 2011. We have refrained from incorporating production from Tolanj given its location disadvantage relative to other finds in the block and current production outlook. The resource value from Tolanj is based on an estimated reserves and valuation multiple of US$11/mmboe (weighted of gas & oil). Exploration. We have assumed a value of 10% of DCF for the current 2P reserves (Rs11bn) as exploration upside. Given POLs relative size and its exposure to high prospective areas (Tal and Margala) and reserve potential in existing producing fields (Adhi, Makori and Mamikhel and Maramzai), we view the exploration value as conservative.

Fig 2

POL Valuation break-down

Reserves (mmboe) Value (US$boe) 6 11 6 Valuation (PRs mn) 110,187 2,778 112,966 11,019 12,632 (PRs/shr) 466 12 478 47 53

Total Reserves Undeveloped resources Total Reserves Exploration Cash Other Assets Investments Sub total Valuation Valuation Composition Base Value Resources Exploration Valuation

184 3 186

23,651 136,617 PRsmn 122,820 2,778 11,019 136,617

100 577.5 PRs/shr 519 12 47 577.55

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Cost of equity
We have arrived at a required equity return of 18.72% through the Capital Asset Pricing Model approach. We have used beta of 1.11 based on POLs five years of trading history. Moreover, we have taken a risk free rate of 11.5%, a market risk premium of 6.5%, which, in our view, an adequate compensation for taking exposure in an emerging market like Pakistan. Sensitivity analysis We have also estimated POLs NAV sensitivity to changes in different key variables. On our estimates, POLs valuations are most sensitive to the future exchange rate with a 2.5% movement in TP for every 1% additional change in LT assumption of rupee devaluation.

Fig 3

Change key variables

Change in POL NAV (%) 1.90% 3.80% 3.50% 3.90%

US$10/bbl change in oil prices (8% of LT oil price of US$114/bbl ) LT Exchange rate depreciation to 4% from 2.5% Change in Cost of equity by 1% 5% higher exploration value relative to current 10% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

14 March 2013

14 March 2013 4

Macquarie Research

Fig 4

Asia Oil & Gas Sector - Valuation, Performance and Operational Metrics (As at 13 March 2013)

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Source: Bloomberg Consensus, Macquarie Research, March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

#2) Monetization of recent finds can deliver upside With 70% contribution to POLs reserve and 75% to the companys top line, POL provides direct exposure to E&P activities in the Tal block and stands to benefit the most from the transition of the operators focus from exploration/appraisal to monetization of four recent finds. Overall, we estimate POL volume to have 3-yr CAGR of 8% over 2012A-2015E, mainly triggered by development activities in Tal block. Successful appraisal drillings, completion of Extended Well Testing and new price incentives under E&P Policy 2012 should speed up the development plan, in our view.

Fig 5

Gas to dominate future volume

Fig 6

Key development projects ahead

Gross volumes Gas Oil bpd 800 1,800 2,000 Net volumes Gas mmcfd 3.2 4.2 4.2 3.6 3,300 2.3 8.0 2,000 10,200 2.2 28.0 45% Oil bpd 168 378 420 0 693 0 220 1,879 47% Time line FY11 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Mar FY11 FY11 FY12

30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0 0.0

Field Manzalai VIII Maramzai Makori Jhal Magsi Makori East Domail Adhi Total % of FY10
Gas (boepd) Oil (bpd)

POL 21% 21% 21% 24% 21% 80% 11%

mmcfd 15 20 20 15 11 10 20 290

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

20 04 A 20 05 A 20 06 A 20 07 A 20 08 A 20 09 A 20 10 A 20 11 A 20 12 A 20 13 E 20 14 E 20 15 E

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities , March 2013

Fig 7

Details on future development plans on recent finds in Tal block

Year 2002 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 Discovery well volumes Oil (bpd) Gas (mmcfd) 137 5,858 2,881 769 3,209 18 24 45 20 11 16 Future programs The operator is working to maintain production plateau on the field at 200mmcfd of gas. Drilling on Manzalai 10 underway Development plan underway which can will allow the operator to optimize production. Makori Gas Processing Facility to have total capacity of 40mmcfd and 4000bpd Production enhancement via tie-in of Mamikhel II, development plan is yet to be approved, reserve revision likely in 2013 Successful appraisal drilling at Mamikhel II, well to be connected to Makori GPF, development plan is yet to be approved, reserve revision likely in 2013 Successful appraisal drilling at Maramzai II, well to be connected to Makori GPF, development plan, reserve booking in 2013 Discovery well is shut-in pending evaluation of commercialization options

Discovery Manzalai Makori Mamikhel Maramzai Makori East Tolanj

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Makori GPF to lift volume constraint

MOL is progressing to remove a key constraint on production optimization of recent find by constructing a US$150mn gas processing facility at Makori called Makori GPF. With current commissioning targeted in Sep 2013, Makori GPF will have total capacity of 150mmcfd of gas, 20000bpd of oil, 10000bpd of condensate and 400tpd of gas. The facility represents a significant step in appraisal and development to recent and future finds. We estimate GPF can bring online additional flow of 10kbpd of oil and 110mmcfd of gas by end of 2013 and could help lift the overall volumes from the Tal block by 80% of oil and 40% of gas.

14 March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Fig 8

Volumes from Tal block likely to grow by 43% within 12 months

Current 3,000 2,000 5,000 1,700 2,000 13,700 13,700 Oil (bpd) Post GPF 3,000 4,000 10,000 3,000 4,000 24,000 24,000 Change 2,000 5,000 1,300 2,000 10,300 Current 200 20 25 30 45 320 53,333 Gas (mmcfd) Post GPF 200 40 50 60 80 430 71,667 Change 20 25 30 35 110 67,033

Tal Block Manzalai Makori Makori East Mamikhel Maramzai Total Total (boepd)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Our production estimates are conservative

We believe our conservative volume estimates (3-yr volume CAGR of 8%) leave room for upside potential from three areas: Clarity on reserve estimates on recent finds. Current field estimates are preliminary and may be subject to revision once results on EWT and a successful appraisal program are incorporated. For our consumption, we have used reserve numbers provided in the latest industry data along with estimated reserve addition from appraisal drillings. Field development plan. We have based our production numbers on disclosed production potential of wells (discovery or/and appraisal) drilled so far. We believe complete field development plans may offer upside risk to our estimates. Altogether four finds are awaiting conception/approval of development plans. Only one find has been fully commercially developed, while development plans on another find have been approved. We particularly highlight upside risk to our estimates from drilling in Makori East III, a development well currently under drilling (45% target achieved). The discovery wells and 1st appraisal wells produced 8000bpd and 5000bpd oil, respectively, and expectations are high that MEIII will also be a success. Assuming production from MEIII is close to levels seen in MEII, we estimate our FY14/15E estimates could see 10%/9% upside risk.

14 March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Fig 9

Reserve upgrade on Pariwali and other fields

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

How our numbers fare with MOL guidelines

MOL has provided updates on production estimates from Pakistan in its latest presentation in Feb13. MOL expects production to grow to 12-14mboepd (Gross; 142mboepd-167mboepd) from current flow of 5mboepd (60kboepd). MOL has provided a peak production target of 15mboepd (Gross 178mboepd) by 2019. MOL now expects production to grow by 10% p.a in the next five years. Production growth estimates provided in the MOL presentation are much higher than the numbers generally discussed by JV partners and achievable with current drilling/development plans, in our view. Even with adjusted numbers from non-Tal block fields, production potential detailed in the MOL presentation appears to be based on un-risked reserves and future exploration efforts (peak production coincides with drilling plan on two exploration wells). Overall, incrementally, MOL has provided more clarity on production targets; however, crucial details on field-wise production or development projects are missing. We remain comfortable with our estimates of 3-yr volume CAGR of 14% (gross ~97mboped) and a flat-to-declining production profile thereafter.

14 March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

#3-Low risk exploration focus but few challenges ahead POL looks set to continue its low-risk exploration program focused on areas with established reserve potential. Currently, POL has a total of eight exploration licenses out of which five blocks are already producing areas. This also explains the companys policy of not pursuing high-risk offshore exploration, though the company intends to assess any international asset acquisition opportunities. Overall, we believe ramp-up of drilling activity is unlikely from the past trend of 2-3 wells p.a. We particularly highlight exploration drillings in Tal block (slated for 4QCY13) and at Chak Naurang South (already underway) which have the potential to deliver upside to the companys reserves. POLs low-risk exploration policy has delivered strong results for the company. In the last five years, POL has maintained a reserve replacement ratio of 164% (almost all contributed by Tal block) while maintaining an impressive discovery record of ~70%.

Fig 10 POL exploration and development spend (PRsbn)

Fig 11
Lease

POL exploration portfolio

Operator POL POL POL POL OGDC MOL MOL MOL Pre-discovery stake 80% 85% 100% 100% 20% 25% 30% 30%

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Ikhlas Kirthar South DG Khan Rajanpur Gurgalot Tal Margala Margala North
20 07 A 20 08 A 20 09 A 20 10 A 20 11 A 20 12 A 20 13 E 20 14 E 20 15 E

20 05 A 20 06 A

Exploration

Development

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Fig 12
Block Tal

Details on future exploration program

Operator POL Stake MOL MOL OGDC POL MOL OGDC POL POL POL 21% 25% 15% 90% 30% 20% 100% 100% 85% Well Mardan Khel I Makori East III Chak Naurang Sadrial Margala TBC Current Target N/A 5048 3310 4968 TBD N/A 947 1295 4867 TBD Status Macquarie-FS comment 2Q2013 Surrounded heavy finds and development wells in the block, overall a good prospect Drilling in progress Appraisal/Development drilling following two successful wells Drilling in progress Drilling in already producing area Drilling in progress Side tracking underway, drilling plan for another well finalized One commitment well to be drilled TBD A lead in northern part to be confirmed, 2D shooting of 250km is in progress 2D shooting planned 2D shooting planned 2D shooting planned

Tal Chak Naurang South II Ikhlas Margala/Margala North Gurgalot DG Khan Rajanpur Ikhlas South

Source: Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Limited future capex outlay

In terms of capex, we believe future exploration is likely to range Rs5-6.5bn p.a. This translates into 30-40% of cash flow from operations which is in the mid-range among its local listed peers Oil & Gas Development Company and Pakistan Petroleum Ltd, two large state-owned enterprises. Acquisition of further lease area poses upside risk to our estimates. Following approval of the new E&P Policy 2012, POL intends to expand its portfolio and may acquire another 3-4 areas. However, timing of bidding and final award of EL is uncertain. We highlight a key challenge to the POL exploration program is its inability to farm-out stake in company-operated blocks and not-soencouraging drilling report card on exploration leases.

14 March 2013

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

#4-High cash payout set to continue We believe POL can afford to maintain +95% cash payout over the medium given comfortable cash position, strong free cash flow (FCF) and manageable capex program. We believe the absolute cash payout will grow in line with the estimated 18% earnings growth projected over the next three years. Even with a higher payout, POL should be able to double its surplus cash balance from Rs6.3bn (Rs27.0/sh) in FY10 to PRs13.6bn (PRs57.8/sh) by FY15E. Overall, we estimate companys operating cash to grow from Rs17bn in FY12 to Rs24bn by FY15. This is again the average capex of Rs5bn that we estimate POL to incur over the next three years. Only major capex the company should incur is Makori GPF (US$150mn, POL share of Rs3bn). While no acquisition is currently on the cards, risk of POL having to contribute to group-level acquisition remains.

Fig 13 Strong production growth to lift Free Cash Flows

90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0

Fig 14 Tal block to contribute >40% of POLs sales by 2013 (PRsbn)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2003A

2004A

2005A

2006A

2007A

2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013E

2014E

2015E

2012

2013E

2014E

Free Cash flow (PRs/share-LHS)

Production(mmboe-RHS)

Opting cash flow

Free Cash flow

DPS

DPS/FCF

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Key triggers
Development news flow: Over the next few months, we believe development news flow is likely to increase at a fast pace as the operator undertakes field development of recent healthy finds. Specifically, we highlight completion of drilling on Makori East III (4QFY13), clarity on possible early production flow from recent appraisal wells (2QFY13) and progress on the construction of a large gas processing facility at Makori (Sep 2013) which, combined with production enhancement on existing facilities, could lift production in the block by 80%. Exploration: Near-term exploration newsflow will be dictated by progress on a POL-operated well at Sadrial (currently under sidetracking). Drilling of two exploration wells in Tal block at Malgin 1 and Kot I (currently slated for 4QCY13) remains a key highlight of POLs exploration plan in 2013. FY13 results: While it is premature to forecast earnings surprise for FY13 results, we believe capital action (dividend and stock dividend) has the potential to excite investors interest. POL historically has paid 60% of full-year cash dividend with full-year results.

Risks
Delays in implementation of development plans: This could potentially dilute NPV of future cash flow. Risk of an unfavourable law & order situation in area surrounding key production facilities in Tal block. In the past, protest on lack of gas supply to local communities has culminated in production suspension from the field. E&P risk: This refers to normal operational risk for E&P facilities and the possibility of encountering technical problems in extracting quoted underground reserves. Acquisition risk: Management has mentioned in its annual review about acquiring producing oil and gas assets, both locally and internationally. While there are not many small oil & gas asset acquisition opportunities, POL can be involved in acquisition of other business (in either energy or non-energy). High acquisition price and a cut-back in likely cash payout would be key risks from our perspective. That said, group-level decision making generally dominates Attock Group acquisition strategy, implying the interests of the minority shareholder may not be aligned with the sponsor shareholder.
14 March 2013 9

2015E

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Fig 15 Tal block to contribute heavily to POLs volume (mmboe)

10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Fig 16 Gas production growth should far outpace oil volume growth
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

20 04 A 20 05 A

20 06 A 20 07 A

20 08 A 20 09 A

20 10 A 20 11 A

20 12 A 20 13 E

20 14 E 20 15 E

20 04 A 20 05 A

20 06 A 20 07 A

20 08 A 20 09 A

20 10 A 20 11 A

20 12 A 20 13 E
Oil 21%

Meyal

Pariwal

Pindori

Adhi

Tal

Domial

Others

Gas (boepd)

Oil (bpd)

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Fig 17 POLs hydrocarbon reserves base total (FY12: 184mnboe)

Pindori 6% Pariwali 5% Others 33%

Fig 18 Gas dominates POLs reserve base (FY12: total 184mnboe)

Tal 56%

Gas 79%

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Fig 19 Growing gas volume to lower POLs per unit margin

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Fig 20 Growing volume to increase gas share in overall sales (%)

2015E 2014E 2013E 2012A 2011A 2010A 2009A 2008A 2007A 2006A 2005A

20 04 A 20 05 A

20 06 A 20 07 A

20 08 A 20 09 A

20 10 A 20 11 A

20 12 A 20 13 E

20 14 E 20 15 E

0%

20% Oil

40% Gas

60% LPG

80%

Sales/noe

EBITDAE/boe

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

14 March 2013

20 14 E 20 15 E
100%

10

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields Ltd

Fig 21 POL's realized oil prices are comparable to Arab Light prices (US$/bbl)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 POL 2007 PPL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fig 22 POL's realized gas prices are highest among its local peers (US$/mcf)
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005

2006

2007

2008 POL

2009 PPL

2010

2011

2012

2013

OGDC

Arablight

OGDC

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Fig 23
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

POL's offers 3-year volume CAGR of 8%

Fig 24
6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00

with competitive operating cost (US$/boe)

Oil POL PPL

Gas OGDC

Total

2006A

2007A

2008A POL

2009A PPL

2010A OGDC

2011A

2012A

2013E

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Fig 25
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0

POL's reserve life is comfortable

Fig 26 Year)
180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40%

with Reserve Replacement Ratio at 164% (3-

0.0 POL Oil Gas PPL Total OGDC

20% 0% POL PPL OGDC

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, Foundation Securities, March 2013

14 March 2013

11

Macquarie Research

Pakistan Oilfields

Pakistan Oilfields (POL PA, Outperform, Target Price: Rs577.55)

Interim Results Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth yoy (adj) m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m 1H/13A 13,744 8,439 5,305 8,400 1,210 0 0 7,189 421 0 0 0 0 7,610 -1,946 5,663 0 5,663 5,663 23.94 23.94 -8.2 2H/13E 16,872 11,283 5,588 11,219 1,219 0 0 10,000 430 0 0 0 0 10,430 -3,466 6,964 0 6,964 6,964 29.44 29.44 22.5 1H/14E 18,574 13,104 5,470 13,050 1,431 0 0 11,618 69 0 0 0 0 11,688 -3,623 8,065 0 8,065 8,065 34.09 34.09 42.4 2H/14E 20,122 14,196 5,926 14,137 1,551 0 0 12,587 75 0 0 0 0 12,662 -3,925 8,737 0 8,737 8,737 36.93 36.93 25.4 Profit & Loss Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth (adj) PE (rep) PE (adj) Total DPS Total Div Yield Weighted Average Shares Period End Shares m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m 2012A 28,624 19,306 9,318 19,193 2,393 0 0 16,800 576 0 0 0 0 17,376 -5,523 11,853 0 11,853 11,853 50.11 50.11 9.6 9.2 9.2 52.50 11.4 237 237 2013E 30,616 19,723 10,893 19,619 2,430 0 0 17,189 851 0 0 0 0 18,040 -5,412 12,628 0 12,628 12,628 53.38 53.38 6.5 8.7 8.7 50.00 10.8 237 237 2014E 38,696 27,300 11,396 27,187 2,982 0 0 24,205 145 0 0 0 0 24,350 -7,548 16,801 0 16,801 16,801 71.03 71.03 33.1 6.5 6.5 59.00 12.8 237 237 2015E 44,107 31,499 12,608 31,376 3,322 0 0 28,054 43 0 0 0 0 28,097 -8,710 19,387 0 19,387 19,387 81.96 81.96 15.4 5.6 5.6 75.00 16.2 237 237

% x x

EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Earnings Split Revenue Growth EBIT Growth Profit and Loss Ratios Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBIT Growth Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Profit Margin Payout Ratio EV/EBIT Balance Sheet Ratios ROIC Net Debt/Equity Interest Cover Price/Book Book Value per Share

% % % % %

61.1 52.3 44.8 -5.4 -18.2 2012A

66.5 59.3 55.2 19.6 24.8 2013E 7.0 2.2 2.3 64.4 64.1 56.1 41.2 93.7 5.9

70.3 62.6 48.0 35.1 61.6 2014E 26.4 38.6 40.8 70.5 70.3 62.6 43.4 83.1 4.2

70.3 62.6 52.0 19.3 25.9 2015E 14.0 15.4 15.9 71.4 71.1 63.6 44.0 91.5 3.6

% m m

Cashflow Analysis EBITDA Tax Paid Chgs in Working Cap Net Interest Paid Other Operating Cashflow Acquisitions Capex Asset Sales Other Investing Cashflow Dividend (Ordinary) Equity Raised Debt Movements Other Financing Cashflow Net Chg in Cash/Debt Free Cashflow Balance Sheet Cash Receivables Inventories Investments Fixed Assets Intangibles Other Assets Total Assets Payables Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Provisions Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Funds Minority Interests Other Total S/H Equity Total Liab & S/H Funds m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m

2012A 19,193 -5,523 3,820 0 -2,222 15,268 0 -4,138 0 1,133 -3,004 -12,419 0 0 -2,448 -14,866 -2,195 11,130 2012A 12,632 3,609 3,074 0 20,856 1,879 10,291 52,340 4,466 0 0 0 12,603 17,068 35,271 0 0 35,271 52,340

2013E 19,619 -5,412 227 0 2,070 16,504 0 -6,500 0 476 -6,024 -11,827 0 0 -591 -12,419 -1,939 10,004 2013E 10,694 3,827 3,062 0 23,519 2,311 10,291 53,703 4,899 0 0 0 13,323 18,222 35,480 0 0 35,480 53,703

2014E 27,187 -7,548 -478 0 1,374 20,534 0 -6,000 0 227 -5,773 -13,956 0 0 2,129 -11,827 2,933 14,534 2014E 13,627 4,837 3,870 0 25,145 2,728 10,291 60,498 6,239 0 0 0 13,804 20,043 40,454 0 0 40,454 60,498

2015E 31,376 -8,710 -386 0 1,281 23,562 0 -5,000 0 142 -4,858 -17,741 0 0 3,785 -13,956 4,747 18,562 2015E 18,374 5,513 4,411 0 25,441 2,635 10,291 66,665 7,070 0 0 0 13,710 20,780 45,885 0 0 45,885 66,665

% % % % % % % % x

14.7 18.7 16.1 67.4 67.1 58.7 41.4 104.8 6.0

% % x x

48.8 -35.8 nmf 3.1 149.1

53.1 -30.1 nmf 3.1 150.0

67.4 -33.7 nmf 2.7 171.0

72.2 -40.0 nmf 2.4 194.0

All figures in PKR unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2013

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Macquarie Research Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Pakistan Oilfields

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very highhighest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4060% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3040% in a year. Lowmedium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 2530% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 1525% in a year. * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 31 December 2012

Outperform Neutral Underperform AU/NZ 47.87% 37.94% 14.19% Asia 54.89% 26.41% 18.70% RSA 54.41% 38.24% 7.35% USA 41.93% 52.16% 5.91% CA 60.86% 33.70% 5.44% EUR 44.14% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.10% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) 27.73% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 4.91% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) 28.13% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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Pakistan Oilfields

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Asia Research
Head of Equity Research
John OConnell (Global Head) Peter Redhead (Asia Head) (612) 8232 7544 (852) 3922 4836 (852) 3922 5417 (9122) 6720 4084 (813) 3512 7856 (82 2) 3705 8644 (852) 3922 4774 (852) 3922 1479 (9122) 6720 4078 (6221) 2598 8366 (813) 3512 7476 (822) 3705 8643 (65) 6601 0981 (632) 857 0899 (8862) 2734 7530 (662) 694 7728 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6601 0840 (852) 3922 3557 (852) 3922 4068 (9122) 6720 4084 (6221) 2598 8489 (813) 3512 7392 (822) 3705 8678 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6601 0840 (662) 694 7993 (8621) 2412 9007 (852) 3922 4626 (813) 3512 7920 (852) 3922 5417 (8621) 2412 9082 (852) 3922 3585 (9122) 6720 4087 (813) 3512 7871 (822) 3705 8661 (603) 2059 8993 (662) 694 7753 (852) 3922 3567 (822) 2095 7222 (813) 3512 7880 (852) 3922 3566 (852) 3922 3578 (9122) 6720 4090 (813) 3512 7875 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

James Hubbard (Asia) Jal Irani (India) Polina Diyachkina (Japan) Brandon Lee (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) Abhishek Singhal (India) Eunice Bu (Korea) (852) 3922 1226 (9122) 6720 4080 (813) 3512 7886 (822) 3705 8669 (603) 2059 8993 (662) 694 7829 (9122) 6720 4086 (822) 2095 7223 (852) 3922 4731 (852) 3922 1291 (8621) 2412 9026 (9122) 6720 4088 (813) 3512 7873 (603) 2059 8993 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6601 0838 (8862) 2734 7522 (662) 694 7727 (852) 3922 3572 (8621) 2412 9035 (852) 3922 1293 (9122) 6720 4093 (852) 3922 4626 (6221) 2598 8486 (813) 3512 7886 (662) 694 7982 (852) 3922 3587 (8862) 2734 7512 (852) 3922 1401 (852) 3922 3578 (9122) 6720 4090 (813) 3512 7858 (813) 3512 7877 (813) 3512 7880 (813) 3512 7854 (822) 3705 8641 (822) 3705 8659 (8862) 2734 7526 (8862) 2734 7516 (8862) 2734 7525 (813) 3512 7875 (852) 3922 1401 (6221) 2598 8486 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899 (8862) 2734 7519

Transport & Infrastructure

Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan) Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) Nicholas Cunningham (Japan) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (852) 3922 5417 (852) 3922 3898 (813) 3512 6044 (603) 2059 8993 (8862) 2734 7522 (852) 3922 3572 (9122) 6720 4087 (603) 2059 8989 (632) 857 0899 (4420) 3037 4061 (4420) 3037 4271 (4420) 3037 4497 (65) 6601 0144 (8621) 2412 9035 (9122) 6720 4093 (813) 3512 7850 (65) 6601 0574 (612) 8232 3935 (9122) 6720 4355 (4420) 3037 4036 (852) 3922 1279 (852) 3922 5494 (852) 3922 4719 (852) 3922 4077 (852) 3922 3883 (852) 3922 1425 (813) 3512 7850 (852) 3922 3566 (9122) 6720 4093 (6121) 2598 8366 (822) 3705 8643 (603) 2059 8982 (632) 857 0899 (65) 6601 0182 (8862) 2734 7516 (662) 694 7753

Automobiles/Auto Parts
Janet Lewis (China) Amit Mishra (India) Clive Wiggins (Japan) Michael Sohn (Korea) Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong) Victor Wang (China) Suresh Ganapathy (India) Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) Alastair Macdonald (Japan) Chan Hwang (Korea) Matthew Smith (Malaysia, Singapore) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Jemmy Huang (Taiwan) Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand)

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Utilities & Renewables

Ivan Lee (Asia) Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)

Banks and Non-Bank Financials

Property
Callum Bramah (Asia) David Ng (China, Hong Kong) Jeffrey Gao (China) Abhishek Bhandari (India) Norihiko Sawano (Japan) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) Corinne Jian (Taiwan) Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) Ivan Lee (Asia) Graeme Train (China) Matty Zhao (Hong Kong) Rakesh Arora (India) Adam Worthington (Indonesia) Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) Polina Diyachkina (Japan) Chak Reungsinpinya (Thailand) Andrew Dale

Commodities
Colin Hamilton (Global) Jim Lennon Duncan Hobbs Bonnie Liu Graeme Train Rakesh Arora

Economics
Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan) Aimee Kaye (ASEAN) Richard Gibbs (Australia) Tanvee Gupta (India)

Conglomerates
Alex Pomento (Philippines) Somesh Agarwal (Singapore)

Resources / Metals and Mining

Consumer and Gaming

Gary Pinge (Asia) Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) Amit Mishra (India) Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) Toby Williams (Japan) HongSuk Na (Korea) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) Best Waiyanont (Thailand)

Quantitative / CPG
Gurvinder Brar (Global) Josh Holcroft (Asia). Burke Lau (Asia) Simon Rigney (Asia, Japan) Eric Yeung (Asia)

Strategy/Country
Viktor Shvets (Asia) Joshua van Lin (Asia Micro) Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) Jiong Shao (China) Rakesh Arora (India) Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) Chan Hwang (Korea) Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Conrad Werner (Singapore) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) David Gambrill (Thailand)

Technology
Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) Lisa Soh (China) Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) Nitin Mohta (India) Claudio Aritomi (Japan) Damian Thong (Japan) David Gibson (Japan) George Chang (Japan) Daniel Kim (Korea) Soyun Shin (Korea) Andrew Chang (Taiwan) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) Tammy Lai (Taiwan)

Emerging Leaders
Jake Lynch (China, Asia) Adam Worthington (ASEAN) Michael Newman (Japan)

Industrials
Janet Lewis (Asia) Patrick Dai (China) Saiyi He (China) Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) Kenjin Hotta (Japan) Juwon Lee (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) David Gambrill (Thailand)

Find our research at

Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com TheMarkets.com www.themarkets.com Email macresearch@macquarie.com for access

Telecoms
Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) Lisa Soh (China, Hong Kong) Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia, Singapore) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Joseph Quinn (Taiwan)

Insurance
Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) Chung Jun Yun (Korea)

Software and Internet

David Gibson (Asia) Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) Nitin Mohta (India) Nathan Ramler (Japan) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)

Asia Sales
Regional Heads of Sales
Robin Black (Asia) Chris Gray (ASEAN) Peter Slater (Boston) Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) Thomas Renz (Geneva) Andrew Mouat (India) Miki Edelman (Japan) JJ Kim (Korea) Chris Gould (Malaysia) Gino C Rojas (Philippines) Eric Roles (New York) Paul Colaco (New York) Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) Erica Wang (Taiwan) (852) 3922 2074 (65) 6601 0288 (1 617) 598 2502 (852) 3922 2061 (41) 22 818 7712 (9122) 6720 4100 (813) 3512 7857 (822) 3705 8799 (603) 2059 8888 (632) 857 0861 (1 212) 231 2559 (1 212) 231 2496 (1 415) 762 5001 (8862) 2734 7586

Regional Heads of Sales contd

Angus Kent (Thailand) Angus Innes (UK/Europe) Sean Alexander (Generalist) Justin Crawford (Asia) (662) 694 7601 (44) 20 3037 4841 (852) 3922 2101 (852) 3922 2065

Sales Trading contd

Mike Keen (Europe) Chris Reale (New York) Marc Rosa (New York) Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) Kenneth Cheung (Malaysia) John Fajardo (Philippines) Michael Santos (Philippines) Isaac Huang (Taiwan) Dominic Shore (Thailand) (44) 20 3037 4905 (1 212) 231 2555 (1 212) 231 2555 (6221) 515 1555 (603) 2059 8888 (632) 857 0840 (632) 857 0813 (8862) 2734 7582 (662) 694 7707

Regional Head of Distribution Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) Phil Sellaroli (Japan) Grace Lee (Korea) Matthew Ryan (Singapore) (852) 3922 2002 (813) 3512 7837 (822) 3705 8601 (65) 6601 0216