Está en la página 1de 62

Lecture Notes for ORIE 473:

Empirical Methods in Financial


Engineering
 
  


 !"$#&%('*),+-.#0/21435346

8:9*;<*=>.;
A B*CED 9*FHG:I:> D @JF CEKAL0ML0NO
PQRP S(TUV,WXWJYXZ\[]Z_^`UWJZa[bQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
PQ f ghY`iW`WJY [kj.UV,lm[]Z [niTUV,WoQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
O p ;qH@J;rFH<s8E9*FHt:=t:@JuJ@ DJv = C Gxw D = D @Jy D @J>.y K{zL0A|L0NO
f}QRP ~&UZ:i[ jZ\,^ W U^X[QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q f :Z\[]WH ^XZ\il,lZa j.W U^ QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q f}QP ,lZ\ j.W U^:lmlUlQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q U^` W U^`i []WJl TV,W U^`[QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q :Y`ZUli& [WJl TV,W U^QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q }QP U^` W U^`iZ\,Z\j.WJiW U^`[ i^XHil i^Xj.ZQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q ^XZ\ilHV,^`j.W U^X[ U`ni^`:Uil iT0Za[QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q },UWJYXZ\[ [$Z\[]W ^`QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q }QP ,J}i7V,Z\[QeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}QR i V, 7 Z\ YXUUx:[]W iW U^QdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q 0 Z\ Y`UUniW U&Za[]WJ[QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
f}Q ~&V,ilmQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
| p ; D I:9 C y KH|LOML0NO
}QRP ,l j.Za[oi^XxlZ\WJV,lm^X[QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q f :UlZ\WJV,lm^X[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q :Z\Y`i UlU}lZ\WJV,lm^`[QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q UU^ UEZa&UlminZ\WJV,lm^`[QeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q :Y`Z:U}^XUlmi& U:Z\QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q ni^`:Ugi QdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q }QP cZ\UZ\WJl jni^`:Ugi QdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
}Q }Q f EYXZZ\JZ\j.WXUXWJYXZEl JWshQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
77

?@
A
P
P
z

P
P
P.P
Pf
Pf
P
P
P
P
P
f
O|
f
f
f
f
f}
f
f


:

}QR S(lZ7UlZ\WJV,lm^X[klZ\i70^`Ulmi70 []WJl TV,WJZ\o(QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ


}QRQP UeWJYXZocEi 7lZ\WJV,lm^X[E7UU 7 ZiHZ\UZaWJl jElmi^`:U
i QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q ,UlmWJlmi W}U`i^Z\j.U^XUZ\WJl j i^X:V,}Za^`Z_HiiQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q (WJY`Z\lsZ\ l j.i Ul lZ\7iWJZ\xWJUHii} [QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRP&Zaj.Y`^ j.iS(^Xi0H[ [ QeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRP.PHV,^`:iZ\^XWJi&S(^`i7H[ [QcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRPf:,j Z\^XWX il Z\WJ[nH,UWJYXZ\[ [R: QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRPf}QP:Y`lZ\Z_WJH,Z\[ UXZ\,j Z\^Xj.QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRPf}Q f&Z\[W ^X(il Z\W}Z\,j Za^`j. QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRP:Z\Y`i Ul i ^Xi^`j.Ziej.YXi70Za^`HZdWJU: QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRPU^XW ^XV,UV,[ U,UV,^` ^` QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRP~&V,ilmbQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRPnZ\JZ\lZa^`j.Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
M @J;w:;9*@J;y_hF}G:;uJy KHML0A4AL0NO
}QRP Z~$Z\l Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q f ~&WJiW U^Xil ,lUj.Z\[][Z\[ QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q f}QP gZ\i ghY WJZU []ZQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q f}Q f :[]W iW ^X,ilmiZ\WJZ\lm[ UXie[]WJiW U^`ilm ,lUj.Z\[][QeQdQeQ
}Q S(dJP`,lUj.Z\[[]Z\[QeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }QP ,lU,Z\lmW Z\[UXie[]WJiW U^`ilm SdJPX,lUj.Z\[][bQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q f U^`[]WJiW U^`ilmS(eJPX,lUj.Z\[][Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q :[]W iW U^QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q nZ\[ :V,i0[ i^Xj.Y`Zaj } ^XWJY`ZU:Z\bQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q S(dR,XU:Z\7[QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }QP :$i,7ZHacxEi 7lZaWJV,l^X[ QeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q U ^XSo}ZaliHZ R S(`,lUj.Z\[[]Z\[QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }QP SxJPX,lUj.Z\[][Z\[ QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q f cZ\^XZ\lmi& S,lUj.Z\[[]Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q S(n S,lUj.Z\[][Z\[bQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }QP :Y`Z_Tij il:[oU,Z\lmiWJUl QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q f S(k S,lUj.Z\[][Z\[QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q :Y`Z_ JZ\lZa^`j ^`U,Z\lmiWJUlQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q }Q HlUS(n S,lUj.Za[][]Z\[WJUS(n S,lUj.Z\[][QdQcQeQdQeQ
}QR U:Z\&~$Z\7Z\j.W U^QeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRQP S( i^X~&: QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}QRQ f ~&WJZ\ []ZlZ\HlZ\[][ U^i,, Z\WJUS(,lUj.Za[][]Z\[QcQeQdQeQ
}QRQ ([ ^`Sn S ^~&S(~,lZ\Z:iWJiQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
}Q :$i,7ZHa:YXlZ\Z\JU^XWJY&lZ\i[V,lT 7liWJZa[QcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ

}P


} P





}
}


zA
} P
} P
f




} P
} P






P

:

}Q HUlZ\j.i[]W ^`QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ 
}Q }QP c:i 0lZ\WJV,lm^`[ QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ }
}QRP~&V,ilmQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ 
}QRP.PnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
z 8EFH9 D <*FHuJ@JFw:;uJ;> D @JF C:K}N|L0OL0NO
AN|
}QRP &lmi ^`U{Z\,Z\j.WJZ\lZ\WJV,lm^i^Xxl [ QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f (^`Zl [ i[][]Z\WHi^`xU^`Z_l [ JJlZ\Zi[][]Z\WhQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f}QP Ei,7ZQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f}Q f E[W iW ^XxXi^``QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q Ul [ i[][]Z\WJ[QeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP}
}Q }QP [ HZ\lm[]V,[nZ\$,Zaj.WJZ\lZ\WJV,lm^QeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP}
}Q }Q f E[W iW ^XZ\i^X[][]WJi^X:il:Z\ iW U^`[]si^`j.UHil
i^`j.Z\[QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q UT ^ ^`W Ul [ i[][]ZaWJ[ WJYiel [ JJlZ\Zi[][Z\WdQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P.P
}Q }QP &i^`HZ\^Xj. ,UlmWJJU U WJYW U l [ i[][Z\WJ[QeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P.P
}Q }Q f ^X ^XWJY`ZWJi^X}Za^`j.,UlmWJJU UQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.Pf
}Q }Q EJZ\j.W`U:HQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P
}Q illm il U WJQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P
}Q [ JZa,j Z\^`WX,UlmWJJU U[ WJYl [ i[][]Z\WJ[QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P
}Q }QP E,j Z\^`WJJ,UlmWJJU U iWJYXZ\iW j.[QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP.P
}Q }Q f EYXZ ^ V,Hil i^Xj.Ze,UlmWJJU UQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}Q }Q ~&Z\7 ^`[]YXUlmWxQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}Q }Q EYXZ^XWJZ\l Uls:Z\j.UlmiWJUlJi77ij.QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}Q }Q Eij WJU WJYXZiWJYXh,^` ^`WJYXZWJi^`HZ\^`j.,UlmWJJU U QdQPf
}Q }Q Ei,7ZH\:Z\l ^` JUlmV,0i[kJUl QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}Q }Q S^`V,Z\l j.iZ\i,7Z WJY QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}QR [kWJYXZWJY`Z\UlmV,[]Z\JV, QeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q :$i,7Z\hc7UTiS([][]Z\WHS(77Uj.iW U^QeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP}
}Q  V,iElmiW j,lUHlmi ^`QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}QRP~&V,ilmQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}QRP.PnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
p ; H9*;y.y.@JF C:KXML0|L0NO
AMz

}QRP ^`WJlU:V,j.W U^ QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f ~&WJlmi HY`W} ^XZnZ\HlZa[][ U^ QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f}QP EZai[]WJJ[ HV,ilZ\[ Z\[W iW U^ QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f}Q f ~&WJi^`:ilZ\lmlUlm[]WJJHi7V,Z\ []i^`x,J}i7V,Z\[ QeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP
}Q f}Q S^Xi7}[ [nUX}il i^`j.ZaX i^XxHJWJZ\[]WJ[bQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQPf
}Q f}Q kZa}lZ\[][ U^i^XxTZ\[]W} ^`Z\il,lZ\ j.W U^ QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQP

:

}Q
}Q
}Q
}Q
}QR

QRP
Q f
Q

V,7W ,7Z ^`Z\ilnZ\HlZa[][ U^ QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP


U:Z\&~$Z\7Z\j.W U^QeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
U^` ^`Z\ilsnZ\HlZ\[][ U^QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
~&V,ilmbQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
nZ\JZ\lZa^`j.Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
;
= :@ D =u (y.y.; D 8:9*@J>.@ C hF}G:;u KH|L0OLNO
A 
^`WJlU:V,j.W U^WJUS(, QcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP}
:Y`Zj.i WJiil ZaWX ^`ZR :QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
:Z\WJi[ i^`xWJY`Z~&Z\j.V,l WJil Z\W} ^XZ QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }QP :$i,7Z\[nU}TZ\WJi[QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }Q f U,il []U^U`WJYXZ WJYWJYXZ~$ QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q :Y`Z[]Z\j.V,l WJj.Y`ilmij.WJZ\l []W j ^XZQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }QP nZ\:V,j ^X V,^ }V,Zl [ T HZ\lm[ ,j.iW U^QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q ~&UZWJYXZ\UlmQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }QP U^`WJl TV,W U^`[nWJUWJY`Z_il Z\WX,UlmWJJU UE [nl [ QdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }Q f Z\l }iW U^U`WJYXZ_~& QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP}P
Q :[]W iW U^U`TZ\WJii^`WJZa[]W ^`WJY`ZS(, QcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q }QP nZ\HlZ\[][ U^ V,[ ^`lZ\WJV,lm^`[ ^`[]WJZaixU`Za$j.Z\[[ lZ\WJV,lm^`[QeQP
Q }Q f ^`WJZ\lm,lZ\WJiW U^ U`i7,Y`iQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
QR ~&V,ilmbQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
Q nZ\JZ\lZa^`j.Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP}P
8:9*@J>.@ C  D @JF C y K|L0A4AL0NO
A|
}QRP ^`WJlU:V,j.W U^QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
}Q f i7U,W U^`[QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
}Q :Y`Z7i U`U^XZ_,l j.Z QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
}Q }QP S(lT WJlmiHZ QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
}Q ZHi7V,ZeU}U^`Zai^`x,lZ\[]Z\^XWHi0V,Z QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP
}Q ,l j ^Xj.i77[id[ ,0ZT ^`U iHZ\i,7Z QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQP}
}Q UJ[]WJZaT ^XU i}U,W U^,l j ^`QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}P
}QR S(lmT WJlmiHZ,l j ^XTZ\,Z\j.WJiW U^ QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
}Q SHZ\^XZ\lmi&T ^`U iHWJlZ\ZU:Z\QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
}Q ilmW ^XHi0Za[ QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
}Q }QP ilW ^X}i7ZUll [ J^`Z\V,WJlmi$Z\i[]V,lZQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
}Q }Q f :Y`Z_l [ J^`Z\V,WJlmi Ulm7 QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
}QRP&lZ\Z\[ WJUli^X:U i [oWJU:lU ^ i^UW U^QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}P
}QRP}QPcZ\WJW ^`UlZlZ\i []W j QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}P
}QRP}Q fSWJYXlZ\Z\J[]WJZaT ^XU i}WJlZ\ZQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}P
}QRP}Q UlZW Z[]WJZa,[QcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}Pf

:

} QRP}Q ,lU,Z\lmW Z\[ U`:lU ^ i^UW U^QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P


}QRP.PcZ\UZ\WJl j:lU ^ i^UW U^hQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P
}QRPf([ ^`WJYXZE7ij J~&j.YXU7Z\[nJUlV,7i QdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P
}QRPf}QPU :UZ\[ WJY`ZU,W U^,l j.Zd:Z\,Z\^XU^WJYXZ ^X,V,WJ[QdQf}P
}QRPf}Q fS^Za$i,7Zc QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P
}QRPf}Q Eilm7Z\Z\lj []ZU}j.i70[ [o^XZ\HZ\lU,W iQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P
}QRPf}Q SlZWJYXZ\lZlZ\WJV,lm^X[ U^^XU^`JWJlmi ^`:iH[QeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRPf}Q , Z\}U7iW WJQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff}P
}QRP,V,WJ[QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRP}QP,l j ^`,V,WJ[kT T ^`U iHWJlZ\Z\[QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRP}Q fgYXilZ,V,WJ[n JZ\lZ\^XWXWJYXi^j.i07[QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRP}Q ,V,WJJj.i0,il WJQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRP:Y`ZZ\HU7V,W U^UXU,W U^,l j.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff}
}QRP^`WJl ^`[ jHi7V,Zi^`W ZHi0V,Z QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff}
}QRP:0ij ~&j.YXU7Z\[]i^` Z\lmWJU^ QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}QRPb~&V,ilmQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}QRPnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
 p
FHG:;uJy KHMLzL0NO
O|z
}QRP ^`WJlU:V,j.W U^ QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}Q f UEZa ^Xj.U^` W U^`iZai^`[ki^`xHil i^`j.Z\[ QeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}Q S(kJPX,lUj.Z\[][Z\[QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}Q }QP Ei,7ZQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}Q :Y`ZS(eJP &S(nJP{U:Z\ QeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}Q S(k `U:Z\7[ QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQff
}Q cS(n `U:Z\7[QeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}QR Z\iH}JWJi 7Z\ []WJl TV,W U^`[QeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}Q U,il []U^UXS(n Si^`xcS(k,lUj.Z\[][Z\[QeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}Q WJW ^XcS(nU:Z\7[(QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}Q }QP Ei,7ZH\~ clZ\WJV,lm^`[QdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}QRPJcS(kU:Z\7[QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}QRP}QPgYXiW`:UZ\[ W`Zai^WJU YXi}Zi^ ^X,^ WJZHil i^Xj.ZHQcQdQf}P
}QRP.PcS(nJ,lUj.Z\[][Z\[QeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}QRPf:JcS(k QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}QRP:ij WJU WJYXZ~ eZ\$i,7Z QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf
}QRP:Y`ZcS(nUU QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}
}QRPS(,, j.iW U^`[kU}cS(k ^,^Xi^`j.ZQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}P
}QRP~&V,ilmQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}f
}QRPbnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf}

77

:

AN"! J@ ?;G B*C >.F};w:;>.IE9*@ D @J;y KXMLAzL0NO


O 
P}QRPb^`WJlU:V,j.W U^QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}
P}Q $
f #nZ\lU(j.UV,,U^TU^`:[QeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf}
P}Q f}QP,l j.Zi^XlZ\WJV,lm^`&[ %,V,j.WJV,iWJZ WJYWJY`Z ^`WJZ\lZa[]WHliWJZQdQeQf}
P}Q UV,,U^TU^X:[QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P}Q $
' Z\7xWJUiWJV,l WJ QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQff
P}Q }QP~&,UWHlmiWJZ\[QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P}Q &Zal []WJl*V,j.WJV,lZhQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P}Q U^XW ^XV,UV,[ j.U,UV,^` ^`QdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQff
P}QRbU^XW ^XV,UV,[ JUl illmiWJZ\[QdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P}Q :[]W iW U^U`iej.U^XW ^`V,UV,[ JUl illmiWJZQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P}Q ~&V,ilmbQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
P}QRPHnZ\JZ\lZa^`j.Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ }P.P
:uJ@ C = C G8EFH9 D <*FHuJ@J)
F C =u v y.@Jy K}ML0|NL0NO
A5A p ;y.=(
|A|
P.PQRP^`WJlU:V,j.W U^QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}P
P.PQ f U^X,EZa^`j.Z ^`WJZ\lmHi7[oJUlWJY`ZZ\i^ QeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}P
P.PQ nZ\[]i, ^` WJY`ZZ\,j Z\^XW`JlU^XW Z\l QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
P.PQ ~&V,ilmbQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
P.PQ nZ\JZ\lZa^`j.Z\[QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
AO *w EuJ@ C ;ykhF}G:;uJy B*+
C ! @ C = C >.; KHzL0ALNO
||z
Pf}QRPb^`WJlU:V,j.W U^QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q fcV :Z\ ^`Z\[nJUlV,[ ^X^`U^X,ilmiZ\WJl jklZ\HlZa[][ U^QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q f}QP~&V,ilm QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}P
Pf}Q ^`Z\ils[], ^XZ\[QcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q }QP ^XZ\il[, ^XZ\[ WJYU^XZ ^XUW QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q }Q f ^XZ\il[, ^XZ\[ WJYi^X ^`UWJ[ QeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}
Pf}Q (WJY`Z\ls:Z\HlZ\Z_[], ^`Z\[ QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}
Pf}Q }QP  V,iElmiW j[, ^XZ\[QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}
Pf}Q }Q ,
f $WJYEZa}lZ\Z[], ^`Z\[cQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q :Z\i[]WJJ[ HV,ilZa[Z\[]W iW U^QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}Q ~&Za0Zaj.W ^XWJYXZ_[], ^XZd,ilmiZ\WJZal[QdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
Pf}Q }QP:Z\i[]WJJ[ HV,ilZ\[Z\[]W iW U^ ^~&S(~ QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}QRb,J[], ^`Z\[ QeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}QRQP,Z\^`i ^`WJYX.Z -V,,[niWXWJY`Z ^`UWJ[(QdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQf
Pf}QRQ flU[][J}i :iW U^ QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}QRQ :Y`Z_Z\JZ\j.W }Zd^`V,TZ\lsU`,ilmiZ\WJZ\lm[QeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ
Pf}QRQ cZ\^XZ\lmi Z\j.lU[][kHi :iW U^ QdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ}
Pf}QRQ S(QeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQdQcQeQdQeQeQdQcQeQdQeQ

:

Pf}Q S:ES(,lUHlmi0/,[], ^`Z\n}Q 21 QdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ}


Pf}Q S(E W HZ U:Z\7[ QcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ}
Pf}QRPHnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ}P
A|43 ;  =qH@JFH9*=6u 5 C = C >.; K}zL0AL0NO
||
P}QRPb^`WJlU:V,j.W U^ QeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q fZ\JZ\^X[]ZUX: QeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q Y`i77Z\^X}Za[oWJUWJY`Z: QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q i^ilT WJlmiHZ\V,lm[n[]iHZdWJYXZ_EisQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q ghY`iW`:UWJY`Z:iWJid[iQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q il Z\W}:U7iW WJi^XllmiW U^`i&EV,TZ\lmi^`j.ZQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ
P}Q }QPEZa[]WH,lZ\ j.W U^ QdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQ}P
P}QRbnZ\JZ\lZ\^Xj.Z\[QeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQeQdQeQeQeQeQeQdQeQcQdQf

:

:Y`Z\[]Zd^`UWJZ\[ilZ ^`WJZ\^XEZaJUloi^i:Hi^`j.Z\V,^`:Z\l}lmi:V,iWJZeUlki[]WJZ\lm[7Z\HZ\
j.UV,lm[]ZU^iWJY`Z\iW j.isUEZa ^X ^,^`i^`j.Zi^X ,^`i^`j isZ\^` ^`Z\Zal ^XQ
V,[]ZxWJYXZ\[]Z^`UWJZ\[ WJU WJZ\ij.YWJYXZj.UV,lm[]Zx(7
h} ^XWJZ\^`:Z\JUl 8i -Ulm[ ^
U,Z\lmiW U^`[lZ\[]Z\ilj.Yi^X ^XEV,[WJl i}Z\^` ^`ZaZ\l ^XsQ`i^XxU:UV,ln8i -Ul[HUWJU
WJUj.ilZ\Z\lm[ ^Ti^ H ^Xi^`,^`i^Xj.Z i^XUV,li[WJZ\lUEZ\^` ^`ZaZ\l ^XR :c
,lUHlmiYXi[oid,U,V,0ils,^`i^Xj iHZ\^X ^XZ\Z\l ^`U,W U^ Q
EYXZ,lZ\l9Z HV [ WJZ\[(JUlcj.UV,lm[]ZilZW UHZ\ilm[UZ\^X ^XZ\Z\l ^`iWJY`Z\
iW j.[ ^`j.7V, ^`iWJl i7}ZaTlii^`bV,7W Hil iWJZj.i7j.V,0V,[ ,7V,[iHZ\ilcU
,lUTiT WJi^Xx[]WJiW []W j.[]i7l:Z }V lZaxj.UV,lm[]Z ^WJYXZ; 8i -UlmQ
EYXZ Za,Y`i[ [ ^WJYXZ\[]Z(^`UWJZ\[ [U^Za l j.i:lZ\[]Zailj.YZaWJY`U:[]HWJY`iW [
:iWJiei^`i7H[ [ki^`x[WJiW [W j.i ^XJZ\lZ\^Xj.ZHQ
EYXZj.UV,l[Z_Y`i[k[]Z\HZ\lmiHUi7[
< $UlZ ^XJUlj.ZWJY`Z iWJZ\l iEWJiV,HY`W ^WJYXZ,lZal9Z HV [ WJZj.UV,lm[]Z\[ ^,lUT
iT WJi^` []WJiW []W j.[T 77V,[]WJlmiW ^`WJYXZ i ^j.U^Xj.Z\,WJ[U,lUTiT WJ
i^X[]WJiW []W j.[ WJYj.U^Xj.lZ\WJZZ\i,7Z\[nJlU,^Xi^`j.Z
< $Uc[]Z\lmHZi[ij.i,[]WJU^XZj.UV,lm[]Z ^XWJZ\HlmiW ^X([]WJiW []W j.[]4,lUTiT WJ2i^`WJU
[UZZa$WJZ\^XWHU,W  iW U^
< $U ^XWJlU:V,j.ZV,^X:Z\lHlmiEV,iWJZa[WJU ,^Xi^`j.Zi^`,^`i^`j iHZ\^X ^XZ\Z\l ^`
< $UYXZ\7[]WJV,:Z\^XWJ[_i,,lZ\j iWJZWJY`ZlU7Z UsZ\ l j.i:lZ\[Z\ilj.Y ^,^Xi^`j.Z
i^X ^U,Z\lmiW U^X[ lZ\[]Zailj.Y
< $UxZ\,U[]Z([]WJV,:Z\^XWJ[_WJUx^`Z []WJiW []W j.i:Z\WJY`U:[{W Z[]Zal Z\[XcS(n
U:Z\7[]alZ\[]i, ^`RTUUWJ[WJli,Ji^Xx^XU^`,ilmiZ\WJl jlZ\HlZa[][ U^
< $UWJZ\ij.YWJY`ZV,[]ZU{WJY`Z S::S:~$S~$i^` S([]UJW ilZd,ij
iHZ\[
j.U77Z\iHZiWnUlm^`Z\77: ilWJgZ\70[{j.lZ\iWJZ\ (=
 }}QcW i[Y [
^`[ HY`WnWJY`iWk,^`i^Xj i Z\^` ^`Z\Zal[e^`Z\Z\:Z\ iTZ\WJWJZ\li,,lZ\j iW U^ Uo[WJiW [W j.i

:

Z\WJYXU:[i^`WJY`iWH,Z\lY`i,[U^X0i[]WJiW []W j i^j.UV,0:Z\[ H^ij.UV,lm[]ZWJU[]Z\lmHZ


WJY [^`Z\Z\oQ ilWJ WJiV,HY`WWJY`Zj.UV,lm[]ZJUlW UHZ\ilm[] i^XWJYXZ\^WJUU UHZ\l
Y`Za^ ilmWJTZ\j.iZ ^`HU7HZ\ ^xUWJY`Zal,l:U -Z\j.WJ[QS([ ,lZ\,ilZ\WJUWJZ\ij.Y(
 }JUleWJYXZ,l[WkW Z\slZai Z\WJY`iWkWJY`Z\lZ Z\lZ^XUWJZa$WJTUU [ciWoWJY`Z
V,^XEZalHli:V,iWJZ7Z\HZ\sWJY`iWnkj.UV,0V,[]ZHQkEZaj :Z\ WJUWJH,ZlUV,HY^XUWJZ\[ci^X
,V,WWJYXZ\U^ij.UV,lm[]Z Z\T[ WJZHQ_:Y`Z^XUWJZ\[Y`iHZTZ\Z\^Z\,i^`:Z\i^XTZaZ\^
lZa,^`Z\ ^[]V,T HV,Z\^`WHZ\ilm[Q
,Y`iHZdJUV,^`WJZ\ij.Y ^`("
 }(WJUTZHZ\lmlZ il ^`sQ$~&WJV,:Z\^XWJ[ 0 Z
WJU([]Z\>Z /lZ\i:iWJi}?Q 1 ^Xi^`j.Z [ki^Za$j.Z\77Z\^XWX[]UV,lj.Z_U}Za$i,7Z\[nJUlEie[]WJiW []W j.[
j.UV,lm[]Z\2i^X,^`i^`j i:iWJiilZolZ\i 0ij.j.Za[][]iT7ZJlUi^` Z\Te[ WJZa[Q5 U[]W
[]WJV,:Z\^XWJ[:Y`iHZ[]UZoJi il WJ WJYWJYXZo[WJUj il ZaWi^`ilZZ\iHZ\l{WJUc7Z\ilm^
UlZQ

@
@


DC&EXGFHB.&E

A +B

:Y`Z\[]ZilZ^XUWJZ\[ JUl((;}iWUlm^`Za0n(^ HZ\lm[ WJ$Q:Y [j.UV,l[Z [ ^`


WJZ\^`:Z\JU*l -V,^ Ul[}[Z\^ Ulm[]i^`i[]WJZ\lm[_[]WJV,:Z\^`WJ[ YXUYXiHZ WJi Z\^j.UV,lm[]Za[
^,lUTiT WJ2[]WJiW []W j.[]i^`[WJUj.Y`i[]W jk,lUj.Z\[][]Za:[ I Q
E YXZ\lZ [e^`U[ ^X}7Z WJZ\$WJTUU WJY`iW j.UHZ\lm[ei7EU WJY`ZWJU j.[dU WJY [ej.UV,lm[]ZHQ
:Y`iW [WJY`ZlZai[]U^ Y` WJY`Za[]Z^`UWJZa[ Z\lZ l WJWJZ\^ QU Z\HZ\lnWJY`ZalZilZi
^`V,TZ\l(U_WJZ\WJTUU [ WJYXiW_j.UHZ\l(WJY`ZiWJZ\l i ^ U^`ZUl(UlZj.YXi,WJZ\lm[U
WJY`Z\[Z^`UWJZ\[QEYXZ\[]ZTUU [ilZU^ lZ\[]ZalHZ ^ WJY`Z:^` ^`Z\Zal ^X Tlmil$Q~&ZaZ
WJY`Z ^ [WJ2
U /:UU [cU^nZ\[Z\lm}JZ 1ei^`K
/~&V,HHZ\[]WJZ\~$V,,,7Z\Z\^`WJi:nZ\i ^` 1
U^WJY`Zj.UV,lm[]ZH [ Z\T [ WJZHQ
EYXZ\[]Zk^`UWJZ\[EilZ_TZ ^XV,,EiWJZaJl9Z HV,Z\^XWJ0$Q4S(JWJZ\l,WJYXZW WJ7ZUZ\ij.Y j.Y`i,WJZ\l
HUV 7,^XWJYXZ_:iWJZ Y`Z\^WJYXiWHj.Y`i,WJZ\l i[ 0i[W}Za WJZ\oQ4}lZ\j.UZa^`WJY`iW
HUV,l ^`WEUV,WEij.Y`i,WJZaLl -V,[]W:TZ\JUlZ(HUV,7i^WJUlZ\i WJH[]UWJY`iWEHUVk 0XY`iHZ
WJY`ZU[]WHlZ\j.Za^`W}Z\ W U^Q


eDCHRDE(S6B
TE`URDEVQ`WB


@ NM

OPCHQ

:Y`Z(W WJ0ZUWJY [dj.UV,lm[]Z [X/: l j.i:nZ\[]Zailj.YZaWJY`U:[ ^ ^`i^Xj i::^`


^`Z\Zal ^XQY1
E l j.iZ1Zai^`[x:Z\l HZ\JlU Z\$,Zal Z\^Xj.Z\_UT[]Z\lmHiW U^`_UlZa$,Z\l
/

[]\_^:` aZbdceNf]`ghif]jkblam^onpf]jkgarqebdaZ`fZf]`ftsnpuvw` jknxo`hyamblh:aZceNez`h:jk{u}|

L~k*Gd( V9t

Z\^XWX[]U ZilZHU ^XWJU Ul WJY:iWJi}Q\gZ 0&TZ:U ^` []WJiW []W j.[Q


^`i^`j iEZ\^` ^`ZaZ\l ^X [JW Y`Zj.U^`[]WJl*V,j.W U^U,^Xi^`j is,lUEV,j.WJ[[]V,j.Yi[
[]WJUj U,W U^`[Q
^`i^`j.Zi Z\[_Z\WJZ\^`[ HZV,[]ZUE,lUTiT WJUEZa0[ZHQ sQ &WJY`U[]ZV,[]ZaWJU
:Z\l H ZWJYXZJiUV,[o:7ij J~&j.Y`U7Z\[nJUlmV,7i}Q
< ilZWJY`Z\[]Z_U:Z\7[n[]V,,,UlmWJZ\T,^Xi^`j iHil ZaWJ[k:iWJi}
< Y`U ilZdWJYXZ_,iliZaWJZ\lm[ ^WJY`Za[]Z_U:Z\7[kZa[]W iWJZ\o
: Z\W [e7UU iY`Zai WJUWJYXZ:7ij J~$j.Y`U7Z\[JUlmV,7iJUldWJYXZ,l j.ZU i:V,lU
,Z\i^j.i7{U,W U^Q/U 1 [j.i77Z\W Z(}Qs:Y`ZiWJV,l WJ:iWJZUEWJY`ZU,W U^
[cQX:Y`ZcU,W U^ HZ\[V,[WJY`Zcl HY`WJ$TV,W TWJYXZcUT HiW U^`&WJU,V,lj.Y`i[]ZeU^`Z
[]YXilZU[WJUj JUl:U70ilm[diW W ZQ_:Z\WrTZ WJY`Z,l j.ZU WJYXZ []WJUj iW
W Z QaS(WXW Z i^XilZ ^`U ^TV,W.r [kV,^ ^XU ^Q
S(WW X
Z r 7ETZaj.UZ ^XU ^QnsiWW 
Z Z7Z\ilm^WJY`iWr$
WJYXZ\^ Z 7`Z\Z\lj []ZcWJYXZeU,W U^xi^X,V,lj.Y`i[]ZcU^XZc[]YXilZHQXgZcj.i^ Z\
iWJZ\7[]Z\7`WJYXZ[Y`ilZ(JUlrx:U07ilm[i^`Zail^i ,lU,W:Urb EU77ilm[]H7Z\[][
WJYXZj.UXUXWJY`Z_U,W U^ Q
niWkW ZoirWJY`Z\^ Z:U^XUWkZa$Z\lj [ZWJY`ZU,W U^QeEYXZU,W U^
Z\ l Z\[ni^` Zd7U[]Z_WJYXZUl ^`ij.U[]W}UXWJYXZU,W U^XTV,WX^XU UlZHQ
: Y`ZHi7V,ZxUkWJY`ZU,W U^ iWW Z []WJYXZ\lZ\JUlZai:6d4aQ :V,W
l HY`W}^`U iWXW Z YXiW [nWJY`Z_Hi7V,ZUXWJYXZ_U,W U^X Q ZHQ \WJY`Z,l j.ZJUl Y j.Y
W`[Y`UV,7x[]Za0$U^WJY`Z_il Z\W
,l Ul WJUWJY`ZP}} []&U,W U^X[ Z\lZ,l j.Z\T(/[]Z\iWXU{,i^`WJ[_1Q&:YXZ\^E7ij
~$j.Y`U7Z\[]4i^` Z\lmWJU^ :Z\:V,j.Z\WJY`Zj.UlmlZaj.W,l j.ZUi_j.i7$U,W U^JlUi_iWJYX
Z\iW j.iHU:Z\,Ri^XV,j.YY`ilxWJY ^ H ^`HQ
:Y`Z\i[][]V,Z\WJYXiW`U^XZdj.i^0Za^`i^XTUllU iW{il [ JJlZ\ZliWJZQ$:YXV,[]
* [WJYXZ,l j.ZiWW Z;Ui_l [ JJlZ\ZoTU^`,V,lj.YXi[]Z\JUl*}PiWW Z\WJYXZ\^

si^`

6s 9*
ts 9mp
\_^:`6s n*bl:n f]`jdbl:hocs&vw`eNfgfJjk^:`6{Ynezd`f]jlh:cs.vw`etghyj?^:`f]`jk|o\_^o`e`blez`:l_;i
`dcnp{l*gYHgfho`onjkgo` nh:`dcnp{frHgTHgfJqbdf]gjkgYd`

(J~n&+o

 )~

:Z\W T ZWJY`Z,l j.ZUXWJY`ZV,^`:Z\lm7 ^X [WJUj Qa:YXZ\ i[[]V,Z\xWJYXiW


6E$
s LL p
i /:l JW 1Ul /HlU WJYlmiWJZ\N1) X [i :lU ^ i^UW U^[WJUj.Y`i[]W j
Y`Z\lZ [+
,lUj.Z\[][{i^` [(i[]WJi^`:il:Z\ iW U^WJY`iWnZ\i[]V,lZa[cWJY`ZHU7iW WJUkWJYXZ
[]WJUj Q}^WJY [j.UV,l[Z\&HUV 0X7Z\ilm^Z\ij.WJ0 Y`iW:WJY [UEZaXZ\i^X[QX HY`W
^`U \WJY`Z /WJi ZY`UZ 1nZ\[][]iHZ [oWJYXiWXWJYXZ\lZilZ,lZ\j []ZiWJY`ZaiW j.iHU:
Z\7[sU&[]WJUj ,l j.ZUHZ\Z\^XWJ[:WJY`iW Zkj.i^j.YXZ\j iHi ^`[]WWJYXZnEiWJi}QaS(7[]U5WJY`Z\lZ
ilZ ,UlmWJi^XW$,ilmiZ\WJZ\lm[:[]V,j.Y(i[nei^XeWJYXiW&V,[]WTZoZa[]W iWJZ\ JlU:iWJi}Q
EYXZE7ij J~&j.YXU7Z\[nJUlV,7i [
$
(z  z$52sm:c
Y`Z\lZ [kWJY`Z_,l j.ZdUXWJY`Z_U,W U^iW`W Zr [oWJYXZ_[]WJi^`:il^`Ulmi4

da*

 b \]

i^X
H

EYXZJUlmV,0i []J HV WJZ(UT UV,[]72j.U, j.iWJZ\i^` WE^`UW:Z\i[WJU:Z\l }Za
TV,W W [Z\i[]eWJUcj.U,V,WJZoi^X i[Y`ilE lZ\ ^`WJUej.i0j.V,7iWJUlm[i7U[]W Z\
iWJZa0iJWJZ\l W i[ []j.UHZ\lZaL EWJY`ZE7ij J~&j.YXU7Z\[cJUlmV,7ii^X YXi^`:JY`Z\7
j.i7j.V,0iWJUlm[oTUWJYZ\Z\lHZ\ ^WJYXZZ\ilm0P}} [Q
gZ 7TZ ^`WJZalZ\[]WJZ\ ^bWJYXZV,^`:Z\lm7 ^` i[][]V,,W U^X[TZ\Y ^XWJYXZJUl
V,7i}QnnZ\Z\TZala`e.cRHilmTiHZ ^XXHilmTiHZ UV,WJnsWJY`Z(i[][]V,,W U^X[
:U^ WEY`U7:}WJYXZ\^WJY`ZalZ [^`UlZ\i[U^WJUWJl*V,[]WEWJY`Z(:7ij J~$j.Y`U7Z\[JUlmV,7i`:Z\
[] WJZ_WJY`Z ,lZ\[][ HZiWJY`ZaiW j.[oTZ\Y ^X WQ
EYXZcZ9HV,iW U^ s9*,U:j.U^XW ^XV,UV,[j.U,UV,^` `^ [_WJYXZc[]U7V,W U^
WJU WJYXZ JZ\lZ\^XW i&Z9HV,iW U^
y
9


:Y`Z_HZ\^`Zali[]U7V,W U^ [ K
t :mi^`(s[ ^Xj.Z _Z YXiHZi[[]V,Z\
WJY`iW}WJY`ZTU^`j.i^TZd,V,lj.YXi[]Z\JUl }PoiWXW Z}Q
gYXZ\lZ:UZ\[

m
j.UZJlU Z\lZWJYXZ\^bWJY [ UV,7TZZa$,U^XZ\^`W ik}lU WJYX;
6s m9-V,[]W: 7 ZWJYXZTU^`,l j.Z QE:Y`ZWJZ\lmL j.UZ\[_JlUWJY`Zlmi^`
:UTZaY`i UlUs[WJUj ,l j.Z\[Qo [i[]WJi^XEil:Z\ iW U^XHZ\[][]Z\^XW i07UsWJYXZ
$6t L

L~k*Gd( V9t

j.YXi^`HZ\[ ^WJY`Z[]WJUj ,l j.Z\[QE:YXZlmi^XEU,lUj.Za[][> X [[]UZ\WJY `^ Z 7


^XZ\Z\WJU 7Z\ilm^V,j.YUlZiTUV,WNi^X Z 7 Q
^WJY [nj.UV,l[Z Z 7
< []WJV,: U:Z\7[nJU,^Xi^`j iil Z\WJ[dRWJY`Z\ ilZdj.U,7Z\eTV,W`Ji[]j ^`iW ^X}
< 7Z\ilm^WJUWJZa[]W_WJY`ZU:Z\7[ EU WJYXZ\ ,W,^Xi^`j i_il Z\WJ[:iWJii:Z\
HV,iWJZ\7
< Z\[]W iWJZc,ilmiZ\WJZ\lm[ ^WJYXZcU:Z\7[[]V,j.Yxi[ci^X WJY`iW:ilZZa[][]Z\^XW i
JUlj.UlmlZ\j.W},l j ^XU`,^Xi^`j iH,lU:V,j.WJ[ []V,j.Yi[oidj.i7}U,W U^Q
U :UWJY`Z ,l j.Z\[U [WJUj [di^`UWJY`Z\l_,^Xi^`j ii[][Z\WJ[
(; V
v I:;y D @JF C:K
TZ\YXiHZH
:UU H ^X iYXZ\iWJU Y`Z\lZWJY [nj.UV,lm[]Z [n}U ^X
< gZ 0JilW}T:Z\,^ ^X+/lZ\WJV,lm^`[_1nU^WJY`Z,l j.Za[kU}ic[]WJUj
W /Sn SU:Z\7[_1
< gZ 0WJYXZ\^7UU i.
l /W Z[]Z\l Z\[]z 1 Y j.YilZ[]Z9HV,Z\^`j.Za[UEEiWJi
WJY`Z\[ZcilZ(U:Z\7[JU
[]i,7Z\UHZ\lsW Z
S(k SU:Z\7[nilZ[]WJUj.Y`i[W jk,lUj.Z\[[]Z\[
< S(JWJZ\l:0UU H ^`iWlZ\WJV,lm^`[i^XW Z[]Z\l Z\[U:Z\7[sUlZ\WJV,lm^ TZaY`i Ul Z
77UU iWU,W i,UlWJJU UUl [ ei[][]Z\WJ[oRZHQ Q 2[]WJUj []&i^XUl [
i[][]Z\WJ[ i^Xl [ JJlZ\ZTU^`:[dRZHQ sQ \(~&lZ\i[V,l T 07[]Q
:Y [ 7WJi Z V,[:WJUWJYXZnJiUV,[Ei WJiS([][Z\W,l j ^Xc UEZaRS(,
:UU H ^XZ\HZ\^JilmWJY`Z\l iYXZ\i: Z 7X7iWJZ\l lZ\WJV,lm^WJUWJYXZd,l j ^`U{[]WJUj
U,W U^`[ T WJY`Z_:7ij J~&j.Y`U7Z\[nJUlmV,7iei^Xxj.UHZ\lUWJYXZ\l:ilZ\i[kUX,^Xi^`j iZ\^`
^`Z\Zal ^X[]V,j.Yi[kWJY`ZWJZ\lm[]WJl*V,j.WJV,lZ_U ^XWJZ\lZ\[]WHlmiWJZ\[Q
:V,WTZ\JUlZ ZHZ\W ^XWJU(i,, j.iW U^`[ U,lUTiT JW i^X[WJiW [W j.[ ^,^`i^X
j i`Za^` ^`Z\Z\l ^`H Zc^`Z\ZaWJUlZ\ Z []UZe,lUTiT JW xi^X[WJiW [W j.[[]UWJY`iW
ZilZi0V,WJU [,Z\Z\oQ

 @
M

UWQ&E6RDS6WFR.DRDB FE

B

p = C G:FH qH=9*@J=t:uJ;y i lmi^`:UHil iT7ZY`i[_i(7ilHZ[]Z\W,U:,U[][ T7ZcHi7V,Z\[


TV,W{U^`7U^XZ 7}ij.WJV,i77Uj.j.V,lmQ&:Y`Ze[Z\W`U{,U[[ T0ZHi7V,Z\[i^`WJYXZ l,lUT
iT W Z\[oilZdj.i77Z\WJYXZ,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^UXWJY`Z_lmi^`:U}il iT7ZHQ
[ij.U^`W ^`V,UV,[0 []WJl TV,WJZ\ lmi^`

F C:D @ C I:F}I:yd9*= C G:FHqH=9*@J=tEuJ;


:UHil iT0Z W`Y`i[nic,lUTiT WJ:Z\^X[ WJ JV,^Xj.W U^R,:J. :[]V,j.YWJY`iW

ck$9:{mT JUli7H[]Z\WJ[

(

>

y :Y`Z_j.V,V,7iW }Zd [ WJl TV,W U^JV,^`j.W U^RH{U* [ I


 { 4{
LY`i[nid,EXWJY`Z\^
:{m_
 ,n$
r
I:= C:D @JuJ;y
,WJYXZU  [oj.U^XW ^XV,UV,[ni^`[]WJl j.WJ7 ^`j.lZ\i[ ^XWJY`Z\^
W,Y`i[i ^X}Zal[ZeJV,^`j.W U^ QHUlZ\ij.V
Y TZ\W Z\Z\^i^` P z  [j.i07Z\
WJY`;Z ]WJHY HV,i^`W 7ZUloPJ ]WJY,Zalj.Z\^`W 7ZHQa:Y`Z,lUTiT WJWJY`iW [TZ\7U WJ[WJY
HV,i^`W 7Z [n,lZ\j []Za0
Qa:Y`ZZ\ i^ [kWJYXZ_ ,Z\lj.Z\^XW 0Z_UlQ HV,i^`W 7ZHQ\EYXZ
f i^X ,Z\lj.Z\^`W 7Z\[JQ fi^`QR HV,i^XW 7Z\[ilZj.i77Z\WJY`Z,lm[]W&i^`WJY l
HV,ilW 7Z\[Q

[]hj?^:`fZ`6h:bljk`fZ   s`nphof`ocn{}vwuy_`h:gjkgblh  |

~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s

 8

}V,lZf}QRP 77V,[]WJlmiWJZ\[}V,i^XW 0Za[Q:Y`ZWJU,_0ZaJWc,7UWeY`i [i j.U^`W ^`V,UV,[


[]WJl j. WJ7 ^Xj.lZ\i[ ^`xQ4 :YXZ\lZ [_iV,^ HV,ZX]WJY}V,i^XW 0Z z,i^` P
z*  z*x Q:Y`ZWJU,,l HY`Wk,0UWnYXi[ix []j.lZ\WJZQ
:Y`ZalZ [_iV,^ HV,Z)]WJYHV,i^`W 7ZcTV,W  z*$  z**Q
:Y`ZTUWJWJU7Z\JW,7UWeYXi[ij.U^`W ^`V,UV,[]oTV,Wd^XUWe[]WJl j.WJ7 ^`j.lZ\i[ ^`bQ
:Y`ZalZ [ci^ ^XWJZ\lmHiEU WJV
Y HV,i^`W 7Z\[di^` Z\ij.Y[iW [,Z\[  z*
 z*nQ
1

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.4

0.6

F1
(q)
0.8

0.2

0.4

1
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.2
0

F0.6 (q)0.8

HV,lZf}QRP D

:? :;> D = D @JF C y= C G!k=9*@J= C >.;y :YXZZa$,Z\j.WJiW U^UL [




$#"

 ,

6:  m_

F1(q)
0.8

0.6

d{ $*w W 

?

EYXZ}il i^`j.ZdU [
$
l  :{mT Xl, 
[Z\JV,&JUlmV,7i}H  U5  Q
EYXZ[]WJi^`:ilEZa iW U^ [kWJYXZ[HV,ilZlUUWXUXWJY`ZHil i^Xj.ZH
&% l, x

DDDd(' [i[]i,7ZJlUi,lUTiT WJ [WJl TV,W U^``WJY`Z\^WJY`ZZ\


,Z\j.WJiW U^j.i^TZdZ\[W iWJZaTWJYXZ_[]i,7ZdZai^

'
)*,+

"

i^`WJY`ZHil i^Xj.Zej.i^TZZa[]W iWJZ\xT WJY`Z[]i,7ZdHil i ^`j.Z


*
*,+
'

/.
-

Rf}QRP
Rf}Q f

J@ qH=9*@J= D ;G:@Jy D 9*@Jt:I D @JF C y S,i lU j.U^XW ^`V,UV,[]7 []WJl TV,WJZ\lmi^`:U
Hil iT7Z\[]s(1Y`i[nieT H il iWJZeEZa^`[ WJ: 2L3H*
3

(1 (> $9H L3 m_r43r

FH9*9*;uJ= D @JF C = C G+
FHqH=9*@J= C >.;
2 6

5l,x71x81:9_
(1}ilZj.U^`W ^XV,UV,[]7 []WJl TV,WJZ\:\WJY`Z\^

2 $lx;3x81o: 2d3tT;43r
[Z\JV,&JUlmV,7i[

2
EYXZj.UllZ\7iW U^j.UZ\,j

#1 {x<3
Rf}Q 
!=Yl  71?>
Rf}Q 
!=Y71=8 1l@>
Rf}Q 
 #1  k
Ulox81
Rf}Q 
Z\^`WXTZ\W Z\Z\
^ i^XA
1 [T 2U
2iaB2oQ

~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s
[

HZ\^iT Hil iWJZ[]i,7Z$


*,+
'
.

* *,+
'

1
*

 8

4WJY`Z[]i,7Zj.UlmlZa0iW U^j.UZa,j Z\^`W

]81

- 2 - 2

Rf}Q

`Y ZalZ i^` 1ilZWJY`Ze[i,0ZdZ\i^`[i^` - i^` - 2ilZcWJY`Zd[]i,7Zc[]WJi^`


:il:Z\ iW U^`[Q
}V,lZcf}Q f HZ\[_[j.iWJWJZ\lm,0UWJ[ki^`WJY`Ze[]i,7Zj.UllZ\7iW U^j.UZa,j Z\^`WJ[JUl
Z HY`W}lmi^`:U[]i,7Z\[Q\UW j.ZWJYXiW
<

i^iT0V,WJZj.UlmlZ\7iW U^UQ f [n}Zal Z\i


i^iT0V,WJZj.UlmlZ\7iW U^UQ [kU^`7U:Z\lmiWJZ
<

i^iT0V,WJZj.UlmlZ\7iW U^UQ  [nliWJYXZ\l[WJlU^`


<

i^iT0V,WJZj.UlmlZ\7iW U^UP , Z\[oie ^`Z\illZ\7iW U^`[]Y


<

ic[]WJlU^X ^XU^` ^`Z\illZ\7iW U^`[]Y iUli^`UW ,7idY HYj.UllZ\7i


W U^
<

,U[ W }Zoj.UlmlZ\7iW U^`[ ,7i^ ^`j.lZ\i[ ^`(lZ\7iW U^`[Y Ri[ ^Xj.lZ\i[]Za[]


1
^Xj.lZ\i[]Za[oU^iHZ\lmiHZ\
<

^`Z\HiW HZnj.UllZ\7iW U^X[ ,7ci^ ^`j.lZ\i[ ^`dlZ\7iW U^`[]Y xRi[ ^Xj.lZ\i[]Za[]


1hEZaj.lZ\i[]Z\[ U^iHZ\lmiHZ\

<

i^XA1hilZ ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`W `JUli7[]ZaWJ[i^Xc


B*C G:; E; C G:; C >.; 

i^`C1

(

c 8 17(p

 i^XC1ilZ ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`WWJY`Za^JUli7HJV,^`j.W U^`[ Di^XFE


X:D{GEE81xcX:D{5XHEs81x_
:Y [Jij.Wj.i^TZV,[]Z\WJU,lU}ZoWJY`iW i^XI1 ilZ ^XEZa,Z\^`:Z\^XWJ.WJY`Z\^
2
Q

d{ $*w W 

?

r = 0.01

r = 0.25

3
4

3
4

r = 0.5
3

2
2

r = 0.95

3
4

3
4

r = 0.11

r = 0.83

1
0

1
2
4

4
4

r = 0.89

r = 1

3
2

2
1
0

0
1

2
2
4
4

3
4

HV,lZf}Q f}JK:LNMKOp:PPQTD!O:SRTUOVWR8:PX YZ[PD\:L]:LNMK7^

P~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s


M NM

 X

 8

  dcHRDS`DRDBF

&E `_HRDF &Q ba

~$V,,,U[]Z Z(UT[]Z\lmHZ)i^` Z i^`WEWJU,lZa j.WU1 Y j.YY`i[^`UW:HZ\WsTZaZ\^


UT[]ZalHZ\oQ4Ew
2 [k^XUWXZalUWJY`Z\^ ^XU ^X j.i^Y`Z\7V,[k,lZ\ j.We1Q
S ^XZ\il,lZa j.WJUlEU1bTi[]Z\U^ [niJV,^`j.W U^gf*Af, Y`Z\lZhfr:i^X
f,`ilZ_,ilmiZ\WJZ\lm[ WJY`iW Z_j.i^j.Y`UU[]ZQ4:Z\[]W ^`Z\ils,lZ\ j.W U^Z\i^`[n,^` ^`
f i^X#
f [U WJYXiWXZ\,Z\j.WJZ\[ HV,ilZ\,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl HZ\^T
71=< f if 

[k ^  ZaQ
71=< fijf:  x8 1 . k f.8 1 k f:  A1 < fiif,
X
~&ZaWJW ^X WJYXZ,ilW i:Z\l HiW HZ\[kWJUZ\lU ZHZ\W

x8 1 lf if x Xi^X

x #1*
if]x L lf, p
S(JWJZ\l[UZi7HZ\TlmiRZa$Z\lj [Z\ Z,^`WJY`iW
f:
2ia
Rf}Q 
i^X
f8 1
6f,m o8 1
2a  p
Rf}Q 
:Y`V,[]WJYXZTZ\[]WH ^XZ\il ,lZ\ j.WJUlEUm 1 [
n o
17
fylf, x8 1* 2a  l  
Rf}QP
peq peq r

sutWvxwuyQz|{}y~[outtK~[t

:Y`Z ,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl [17 1n QW [cZ\i[]WJU,lU}ZWJY`iW_X717 1n ([]U


WJYXiWkWJYXZ,lZ\ j.W U^ [/V,^`T i[]ZaQY1g WJYi WJWJ7Zi7HZ\Tlmi Zj.i^ [Y`U WJY`iW
WJYXZZa$,Z\j.WJZa[8}V,ilZ\x,lZa j.W U^Z\lmlUl [

2
n
X71= 1 2 2 }
2 p
Rf}QP.P

U V,j.Y:UZ\ [ Y`Za0V,[_,lZa j.W 1$Ui^`[ Z\lkWJY [ HV,Z\[]W U^X&^`UW j.Z


,lm[]W{WJYXiW ZeEU^`UW{UT[]ZalH>Z WJYXZ\^ ZdV,[]W{,lZ\ j.dW 1V,[ ^Xij.U^`[]WJi^XWJ
2Qa:Y`ZZa$,Z\j.WJZa[ HV,ilZ\,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl [8 1U
Y j.Y Z 7&:Z\^XUWJZoT
2 Q\~$UZi7HZ\Tlmie[Y`U [nWJY`iW
x8 1=62 bsil$8 1* K78 1 
Rf}QPf

_ _N {J i(J

P.P

Y j.Y[]YXU [dWJY`iW WJYXZZ\,Z\j.WJZ\[8}V,ilZ\ ,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl [ ^  Z\T


81*Q:Y`V,[]WJY`ZTZ\[]W{,lZ\ j.WJUl Um1
[e81`i^`WJYXZeZ\,Z\j.WJZ\[HV,ilZ\
,lZ\ j.W U^ Z\lmlUl [x 2 QghY`Z\ ^U [UT[]Z\lmHZ\: WJY`Za^ WJYXZZ\,Z\j.WJZ\ [HV,ilZ\
,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl [ 2 } 2 *Qc:Y`Z\lZ\JUlZ\ 2 [WJY`ZJlmij.W U^T Y j.Y
WJY`Z_,lZa j.W U^Z\lmlUl [klZ\:V,j.Z\ YXZ\
^ [ ^`U ^ Qa:Y [ [ni^ ,UlmWJi^XWXJij.W
WJY`iW Z 7[]Z\Z_iHi ^ Q
E?=
:uJ; K k
2 S]XWJY`Z\^WJYXZ(,lZ\ j.W U^ZallUl [dlZaEV,j.ZaTxf T
UT[]Z\lm ^`
Qsk 2 ]HWJY`Z\^WJYXZ(Z\$,Zaj.WJZ\ [ HV,ilZ\,lZ\ j.W U^Z\lmlUl [
[oV,^XUT[]Z\lmHZ\TV,W`U^`7xt
K  w Tm S L [oUT[]ZalHZ\oQ


.

 RDE`.TR
DRDBFE

BF?cHR DRDBFQd

:Z\WL 2 3}TZWJY`Z.-U ^`W}EZa^`[ WJU`ie,i lUXlmi^`:UHil iT7Z\[]sV1*Q


EYXZil ^`i,:Z\^`[ WJU& [:{>:
23m43i^`[  7il7JUl
|2kQ
EYXZj.U^` W U^Xi:Z\^`[ WJUm1 HZ\^W [
: 2 L3H
2 <3 ,n

: {
EYXZcj.U^` W U^`i}Z\,Z\j.WJiW U^Ud 1 HZ\V
^ [ -V,[W,WJY`ZcZ\,Z\j.WJiW U^j.i0j.V,
7iWJZ\xV,[ ^X+
2 < 3 ,*
8 1
{n$
3J 2 < 3 {m 43
Y j.Y [U`j.UV,lm[]Z\\idJV,^`j.W U^U {Q
EYXZj.U^` W U^XiHil i^Xj.ZeU 1 HZ\+
^ [
il8 1 K
,n$
;3 8 1I
{ 2 < 3 ,m W36
^ )"V$i^`(
3+ 5Q
E?=
:uJ; K ~&V,,,U[]Z :
2 3nkU
EYXZ\^WJY`Zil ^`i:Z\^X[ WJ UL [  {k }  ,*Q
EYXZcj.U^` W U^`i}:Z\^`[ WJU1 HZ\^ [ 2 <3 , };{ JUl
3 5Q
EYXZj.U^` W U^XiZ\,Z\j.WJiW U^Um 1 [

8 1I K
{

EYXZj.U^` W U^XiHil i^Xj.ZeU 1 [

il8 1 K
, } 2 ,

Pf~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s


WC

B w

 8

c RDEX.wR
DRDBF

Qd

:Y`Z[]WJi^X:ilx^XUli []WJl TV,W U^Y`i[n:Z\^`[ WJ

,

:Y`Z(b&m H:Z\^`[ WJ [

A

:Y`Z[]WJi^XEilx^`Ulmi [
,

 $
r

{mTL

j.i^TZZ\Hi7V,iWJZ\V,[ ^`WJiT7Z\[RV,HY& UlUlZZ\i[ 7V,[ ^`[]UJW ilZ


[]V,j.Yi[n S::SUl &SoQ
 & m WJY`Z\^  "{ $;$ sa_
:?=
EuJ; K . t$:WJYXZ\^ YXiW [  *Q P7$([ ^`+&
]ai^X o2 ZnY`iHZy(sa r\{i^`WJYXZ\^}5nSk2Q
^ S::S: / cdfn(1) 1 HZ\;[ / ans = 0.8413 1Q
peq eq r

~[hwuy}{}y~[hkvkxhvkz|{:k{Qy:~[h`khwgUkty:kzv

:Y`Zj.i0j.V,7iW U^ Unj.U^` W U^XiZ\,Z\j.WJiW U^`[di^`Hil i^Xj.Z\[(j.i^TZ ,j.V,7W


JUl[UZ,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^X[]\TV,W W [ HV WJZdZai[]JUlsic,i lV1}WJY`iW
YXi[oidT Hil iWJZe^XUli []WJl TV,W U^ Q
HUliT Hil iWJZ^XUlmis,i l:WJY`Zj.U^` W U^XisZa$,Z\j.WJiW U^U1 }Za^
Z9HV,i7[kWJY`Z_TZ\[]W} ^`Z\il ,lZa j.WJUlEUm 1h }Za^+
x81I nx81 2 l, _

:Y`Zcj.U^X W U^XiXHil i^`j.Z(U1 }Za^ [WJYXZcZ\,Z\j.WJZ\[HV,ilZa,lZ\ j.


W U^Z\lmlUl4
il8 1 o 2 } 2
]hyjk^:`f]` h:bljk`f]  s `nh:fTgf]jkeNg vwcjk`nf]| 

*>I  H ($ J e ::

h *

&Q b
FHSXDRDB FEB2Q&FcHB

wRDQ`g.&E

_HRDF

WQ

8[1$.n]&81
i^XC
:ilZj.U^`[]WJi^XWJ[QaS(0[U
Y`Z\lZN1 [kielmi^`:UHil iT7Zei^`A
il8 [1]ko
il8 1p
L i^`#1ilZdlmi^`:U}il iT7Z\[i^X#
c{i^`#
EilZj.U^`[]WJi^XWJ[]WJY`Za^
x< c l 1no
cmx L lx8 1p 
i^`
sil< i 1no
il  k Uo (1 i sil$8 1p
Y`Z\j WJY`iW
sil$<c i:1 kc E
Uoil ( 1 Usoil V8 11 c
EZamW  l DDDlcQ TZeilmi^`:UHZ\j.WJUl*Q&gZEZa,^`ZWJY`ZZ\$,Zaj.WJiW U^
HZ\j.WJUlU WJU TZ

x ]
QQQ

x e V
EYXZj.U}il i^`j.ZdiWJl U [

il
Uo l 5 ::Uk l c

Uk 9 
sil 5
::Uk 9
c
8 i

QQQ
QQQ
QQQ
QQQ

U EUk 5 :: il c
EZaeW < DDDl Q (TZdid}Zaj.WJUlU Z HY`WJ[Q4:Y`Z\^

)*,+

k[ i Z HYXWJZ\i}ZaliHZU`WJYXZ_j.U,U^`Z\^XWJ[ UXp W k[ idlmi^`:UHil iT0ZQ


^XZdj.i^[]YXU WJYXiW
8 n
58  _

P~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s
S(7[]U

il8

) +



:Y [lZa[]V,7Wj.i^TZZa$,lZa[][]Z\ UlZ[ ,7(V,[ ^`HZ\j.WJUlo&iWJl d^XUWJiW U^
il8 n]
(8 }V
Rf}QP
 b5Qsil e ]il ]
:?= EuJ; K ~&V,,,U[]ZdWJY`iW
sil$ k]}T  X S]i^`WJYXiW :i^XilZ ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`WHU Q$ ^`
sil$ b5*Q
P7}EYXZcj.UHil i^Xj.Z TZaW ZaZ\V
^ si^` k [_T ^X:Z\,Z\^`:Z\^Xj.Zei^X
WJYXZ[iZ [WJl*V,ZU> i^X=
Qh:YXZj.UHil i^`j.ZTZaW ZaZ\K
^ i^X=
[
m S J]Jk
9Q:Y`Z\lZ\JUlZ\

9
(x8 k 9 

 8

)*,+

i^X

Uk

ily \

t ;
t

t
J

tS

rFr;N@  :D ;G=qH;9*= };y K UlZHZ\^`Z\lmi772 ! i^` ilZW U


Z
H Y`WJZ\iHZ\lmiHZ\[nU`WJY`Z_j.U,U^XZ\^`WJ[ UWJY`Za^
Uk8  n]
(x8}:
Rf}QP
:?=
EuJ;e>.F C:D @ C I:;G K ~&V,,,U[]Zi[ ^WJY`Z_,lZ\ UV,[nZ\i,0ZWJY`iW
:

sil$ d]Hil 5c]Xsil c
],w S]Hi^`WJY`i W si^`
ilZ ^`:Z\,Za^`:Z\^`W$U Qa ^XWJYXZj.UHil i^Xj.ZTZaW ZaZ\^ r V V \ki^X

5 \Q

P7\:Z\W

k(~:wE{#

;~#

i^`

:Y`Z\^

y
U


(8}

J9 ;W

949

9SKW

9 t
B*C G:; :; C G:; C >.;= C GqH=9*@J= C >.;ycFH<oy.I:y K iDDDDd ' i lZ ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`WJ
UliWX0Zai[]WXV,^Xj.UlmlZ\7iWJZ\:WJY`Z\^

*
*
sil8 )* sil$ p
Rf}QRP

B ( :FH9 D = C:D <*=> DJK  Y`i[nidV,0W Hil iWJZe^`Ulmi []WJl TV,W U^`\WJYXZ\^!B
[kie^`Ulmi70 []WJl TV,WJZ\lmi^`:UHil iT0ZQ

E?= :uJ; K ~&V,,,U[]ZWJYXiW n *H k 9S]} U *X d ]i^`


Uk l 5o=
SQ ^Xm : Ko4}i^Xilm : . Koa*Q 5
[kT Hil iWJZc^`Ulmi7,^` m : . Ko p
P7&m :
L o4 9 K ]ilm : Goa
9 K ]i^` m : *
o
k$
;$J 49 K  9 K t$
m SWH4=
t7\Q

 HBDC&ErRDEA&E`DRDF

~&WJiW []W j.inY`H,UWJY`Za[ [WJZa[]W ^`V,[]Za[:iWJiWJUWJZ\[]W Y`Z\WJYXZ\lcij.Z\lmWJi ^YX},UWJYX


Z\[ [] j.i77Z\WJY`Z^XV,0nYX},UWJYXZ\[ [] [WJl*V,ZxUl^XUWQ:YXZ^`Z\HiW U^UWJYXZx^XV,0
Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [ [j.i77Z\WJY`Zci7WJZ\lm^`iW HZY`H,UWJYXZ\[ [QHUl Z\$i,7Z\&[]V,,,U[]ZWJY`iW
l DDDlilZ&
l5, i^` [V,^ ^`U ^QX:Y`Zc^XV,0}Y`H,UWJYXZ\[ [oj.UV,7TZ
WJY`iW [(PQH:Y`Z\^ Z l WJZe(
.X7
i^` `]
7
WJU:Z\^XUWJZdWJYXZe^`V,7}i^`
i7WJZ\lm^`iW HZdYX},UWJYXZ\[]Z\[Q

}
\_^:`h:bljknjkgYblh GGG8nez`h  s`nh:f6jk^:njtjk^o`X
wnpe`gh:_`q`h:_`h:jTnphojk^onpj
`npaZ^
g
f ? |

P~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s

 8

: Y`ZlZ-Zaj.W U^xlZ\ U^ [_WJY`Z[]Z\W,UE,U[][ T7Zc[]i,7Z\[_WJYXiW:0ZaiV,[_WJUlZp-Z\j.W


Q\HUl:Z\$i,7Z\ Z_ HY`WHlZp-Z\j.WH 4*Z\j.Z\Z\:[[]UZ_j.V,WJUXHi7V,ZN2Q
:Y`Z\lZilZeW U WJH,Z\[ UXZ\lmlUlm[ WJY`iW ZYXU,ZWJUiHU Q`WJY`Z^XV,0&Y`H,UWJY`
Z\[ [ [_WJl*V,ZeTV,W ZclpZ -Z\j.W WJ&WJY`Z\^ ZeilZi H ^XiWJH,Ze:Z\lmlUlmQ`U^`HZ\lm[]Z\72
{WJYXZ_^`V,7Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [ [kJi7[]Zi^` Zij.j.Z\,W W`WJYXZ\^ ZilZdi H ^`idWJH,Z_
Z\lmlUl*Q
:Y`Z lpZ -Z\j.W U^lZ\ U^ [ej.YXU[]Z\^WJU Z\ZaWJY`Z,lUTiT WJUiWJ},Z( Z\lmlUl
TZ\7U i ,lZaJ[],Z\j ,Z\[]i7{Hi7V,Zj.i77Z\WJY`Z7Z\HZ\`UEWJY`ZeWJZ\[]W,i^`UJWJZ\^:Z\
^XUWJZ\T#
Qs$H j.i`}i7V,Z\[UU V,[]Z\ ^,lmij.W j.Z(ilZxQ }PsQ }UlQPQsS([ [
i:Z[i07Z\l`WJY`ZlpZ -Z\j.W U^lZ\ U^V,[]WTZ i:Z []i77Z\lmQHUlZa$i,7Z\
^ K4 Za$j.Z\ZaE[ sWJY`Z\
^ sHZ\WJ[
ZlpZ -Z\j.W`WJYXZ^`V,7Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [ WJY`iWs Y`Z\j
7ilHZ\li[kWJY`NZ HZ\WJ[ []i77Z\lmQ
peqxq r

suQUk}hvx

niWJY`ZalWJYXiW [],Z\j J ^`Fi^X:Z\j :Z\ Y`ZaWJY`Z\lWJUij.j.Za,W UllZp-Z\j.W WJY`Z ^`V,7


YX},UWJYXZ\[ [iWsWJY`iWU` Z( HY`WEi[ /JUl YXiWHi7V,Z\[dUUEU ZlZp-Z\j.WEWJY`Z
^XV,0HYX},UWJYXZ\[ [D 1c:Y`ZMKK:kJUl ie[]i,7Z [:Z\,^`Zaxi[WJYXZd[i07Z\[W{Hi0V,Z
UN JUl Y j.YWJY`Z^`V,7oY`H,UWJY`Z\[ [ [lpZ -Z\j.WJZ\hJUlWJY`iW[]i,7ZHQ^bUWJY`Z\l
Ul:[]}WJU,Z\lmJUlmWJYXZ WJZ\[WsV,[ ^Xi HZ\^[]i,7Z Z ,lm[]W,^XWJY`Z,JHi0V,Z
U{WJYXiW`[]i,7Zdi^`WJYXZ\^ [olZ -Zaj.WJZ\ Zd:Z\j :ZWJUV,[]NZ 0il}Zal WJY`i^WJY`Z
,JHi7V,Zi^X (
[dij.j.Z\,WJZa ZV,[]b
Z [i07Z\l_WJYXi^WJY`Z,J}i7V,ZHQ:YXV,[]Xi
[]i7,JHi7V,Z [kZ\ :Z\^Xj.Zi}i ^X[]W`WJYXZ^XV,7Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [ Y 0Zie7ilHZ,JHi0V,Z
[]YXU [ WJY`iW`WJYXZEiWJiilZj.U^`[ []WJZa^`W WJYWJYXZ^XV,7Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [Q
Z
:?=
EuJ; K kWJY`Z,JHi7V,ZUni[]i,7Z [Q }PsWJY`Z\^ ZlpZ -Z\j.Wo
V,[][Z 9Z HV,iWJUQ cUl_QPkTV,W Zij.j.Za,W` ZV,[]NZ Q }PQ
:Y`Z,JHi7V,Z^`UWU^`7 WJZ\70[V,[ Y`Z\WJYXZ\lWJY`Z^`V,7oYXH,UWJY`Z\[ [[]Y`UV,7TZ
ij.j.Z\,WJZaUl{lpZ -Z\j.WJZaE2TV,W W&i0[UcWJZ\77[sV,[ Y`Z\WJYXZ\l`Ul{^XUW&WJYXZo:Z\j [ U^(WJUeij.j.Z\,W
UlnlpZ -Z\j.W,
[i(j.7U[]Zdj.i0 Q`HUl Z\i,7Z\ ZdilZcV,[ ^X@
b
Wi^XWJY`Ze,
Hi7V,Z Z\lZeQ }\WJYXZ\^ Z UV,7lpZ -Z\j.W
XTV,W Z UV,7 ^`U WJYXZ:Z\j [ U^
i[j.7U[]ZQ ^`[]WJZaibWJY`Z,JHi0V,Z ZalZQ }P}nWJY`Z\^ Z UV,7 ^`U WJY`Z
:Z\j [ U^ i[o^XUWX[U j.7U[]ZHQ
ghY`Z\^,Z\lmJUlm ^XY`H,UWJY`Za[ [oWJZ\[WJ[][]WJiW []W j.iX[]UJW ilZelUV,W ^`Z\7j.i7j.V,
7iWJZ\[(,JHi7V,Z\[QU ^XWJY [ [(V,j.Y UlZj.U^`HZ\^ Za^`WnWJY`iWki[ H ^`WJY`ZV,[]Z\l
WJU[,Z\j J
xi^`WJYXZ\^lZ\,UlmW ^` Y`ZaWJY`Z\lWJYXZd^XV,7}YXH,UWJY`Z\[ [ [ij.j.Z\,WJZ\xUl
lZ -Zaj.WJZ\xJUlsWJY`imW Q

(E{$ (

P

h$ N $K $ *  *~

PQd&RD



`DRD Q DRDBF

_R: dDRDCHBBcE

i V, 7 Za YXUU [oWJYXZdU[]W ,UlWJi^XW`i^X :Z\[],lZ\ixZ\WJYXUxUXZ\[]


W iW U^Qk i^` Za07 ^`U ^Z\[]W iWJUlm[[]V,j.Yi[eWJYXZ[i,0Z Z\i^i^`WJYXZ
7Z\i[]WJJ[HV,ilZ\[dZ\[]W iWJUl ^lZ\HlZa[][ U^ilZi V, 0 Z\ Y`UU Z\[W iWJUlm[Q
i V, 7 Z\ YXUU [ixHZ\lmV,[]ZaJV, ^ ,lij.W j.Zi^` WJZ\^`:[WJU HZUlZ
,lZ\j []ZZ\[]W iWJZ\[ WJYXi^UWJY`Z\lEZ\WJY`U:[ UXZ\[]W iW U^ Q
EZa
W 8 1:l DDDd1 ' Q TZiHZ\j.WJUlU:iWJii^` 7Z\ W 8 l DDDlQTZ
i}Zaj.WJUlU_,ilmiZ\WJZal[Q~&V,,,U[]ZWJY`iW  V, [WJY`Z:Z\^X[ WJUN Y j.Y
:Z\,Z\^`:[U^WJYXZ,iliZaWJZ\lm[Q
^ & m *Q
E?=
:uJ; K ~$V,,,U[]Z(WJY`i W 1:D DDDl1 ' ilZb& m *Q:YXZ\6
S(0[U
*
'
'
*

 *+
1


,
*
+

)
V{k
t

81 s

'

'

J| E
\

0
8 V: [j.i77Z\WJY`
Z / 7 Z\ YXUU JV,^Xj.W U&^ 1ci^` [WJY`Z EZa^`[ WJ
 ,
Z\Hi7V,iWJZ\iW{WJY`ZUT[]Z\lmHZ\EiWJi}Q&WXWJZ\70[oV,[oWJYXZd 7 Z\ Y`UUU{WJYXZd[]i,7ZdWJY`iW
i[kij.WJV,i77UT[]ZalHZ\i[nieJV,^Xj.W U^U ,Q\:Y`Z_i V, 0 Z\ Y`UUZ\[]W i
WJUlR :: [nWJYXZ_}i7V,ZU (WJYXiWHi  Z\[WJYXZ 7 Za YXUUxJV,^`j.W U^Q^UWJYXZ\l
Ul:[]WJY`Z: [oWJY`Z}i7V,ZdUd WJYXiW{i  Z\[WJYXn Zd 7 Z\ Y`UUU`WJYXZd:iWJi
WJY`iW i[(UT[]Z\lmHZ\oQgZ 7:Z\^`UWJZWJY`Z : T {QJWJZa^ W [(iWJY`Z\
iW j.i07 Z\i[ Z\l,WJUi  Z   : \[ ^Xj.ZWJY`Zo7UJV,^Xj.W U^ [ ^`j.lZai[ ^`H
i  ^`   : [k9Z HV Hi0Za^`W`WJUi  ^`  ,*Q
E?=
:uJ; K ^WJY`ZdZ\$i,7ZiTUHZ\ W [i^Z\i[j.i0j.V,7V,[Z\Z\lj []ZcWJU[Y`U
WJY`iW n  1QS(7[]U WJY,Z\xiW WJ[o ::\WJY`Z :xUs []U7HZ\[



m c= 0
\

'

\

)*,+

81



:Y`Z[]U7V,W U^WJU WJY [oZ9HV,iW U^ [


n  

)*+

'

81

:Y`Ze :U YXi[i[]i7}T i[Q}:Y`Z)/T i[Jj.UllZ\j.WJZ\i1 E [oWJY`Ze[UJj.i07Z\


/[]i,7ZdHil i^`j.Z1kEZa,^`Z\TZ\JUlZi[

- 2

)*,+

'

81

Rf}QRP

P~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s

 8

^ i /WJZ\WJTUU Z\i,7Z1 []V,j.Y i[WJYXZU^XZiTU}Za W [,U[][ T7ZWJU,^`


i^ Z\, j WkJUlmV,7iJUlWJY`Z :oQg WJYUlZj.U,7Z\xU:Z\7[]:WJYXZ\lZ [^`U
Z\, j WJUlmV,7iJUlWJY`Z :oQ}niWJY`ZaloU^XZ l WJZa[i,lU}lmi WJU j.U,V,WJZ
 , kJUlni^X}i7V,ZcUX
i^`WJYXZ\^V,[]Z\[kU,W  iW U^x[UJW ilZeWJUi

 ZcWJY [oJV,^`j.W U^^`V,Z\l j.i70$QHUl[]UZUEZa0[o[]V,j.Yi[WJY`ZS(n SW Z
[]Zal Z\[U:Z\7[ []j.V,[[]Z\ ^Y`i,WJZalWJYXZ\lZilZ[UJW ilZ,ij iHZ\[]ZQ H
&Si^Xh~&S(~&EWJY`iW_j.U,V,WJZWJY`Z :* sWJYXZj.U,V,WJiW U^ UWJY`Z7U}
7 Z\ YXUUJV,^`j.W U^YXi[oTZ\Za^,lZ\J,lUHlmiZ\oQ


M 



2Q DRDB&E`DE

_R: dDRDCB Bc

7 Z\ YXUUblmiW UWJZ\[]WJ[]E 7 Zi V, 7 Za YXUUbZ\[]W iW U^`ilZxij.U^`HZ\


^ Za^`WJ i77J,V,l,UxWJUU QgZ 7oj.U^X[ :Z\lc 7 Za YXUUliW U WJZ\[WJ[ Y`Za^ Z
[]YWJU WJZa[]WHielZ\[WJl j.W U^U^ie[V,T[]Z\W}UXWJYXZ,ilmiZ\WJZal[QaEZaW
E


TZi,ilmW W U^ ^`(UHWJY`Zo,iliZaWJZ\l:}Zaj.WJUl ^XWJUW Uej.U,U^`Z\^XWHZ\j.WJUlm[Qa~&V,,
,U[]Z Z i^`WWJUcWJZa[]Wi_Y`H,UWJYXZ\[ [siTUV,W : WJYXUV,Wi H ^`i^`(Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [
iTUV,WWJYXZHi7V,ZU QaHUl,Z\i,7Z\ Z  HY`W i^XWWJUcWJZ\[]W$WJY`iWi,U,V,7iW U^
Z\i^ [kZ\lJU WJY`ZaI
^ Ei^XF
` Q
:Z\eW E ETZWJYXZ_Y`H,UWJY`Za[ Z\}i7V,ZUm :ZHQ sQ [ E
Z i^`W}WJUWJZ\[]W
WJYXiWs [kZ\lUEQ\:Y`Za^WJY`ZY`H,UWJYXZ\[]Z\[silZ
4
 i^X

UW j.ZcWJY`iW`^`Z WJY`Zal Y`H,UWJY`Z\[ [k[]iH[i^XHWJY ^`iTUV,W QHHUl Z\$i,7Z\ Z
ilZWJZ\[]W ^X WJYXiWs [kZ\lUWJY`Za^WJY`ZY`H,UWJY`Za[]Z\[ilZ

W
i^X  


i^X^`Z WJYXZ\lsYXH,UWJY`Z\[ [ [],Zaj ,Za[ i^`HWJY ^` iTUV,WEQ
:Z\W n  TZWJY`Zi V, 7 Z\ Y`UUZ\[W iWJUlsi^`0ZaW `n  ETZWJY`ZHi0V,Z
Um `sWJYXiWXi  Z\[  : Y`ZaI
^ Eo
E 5Q
n
[dWJl*V,Z\HWJYXZ\^  E o } 5E[]YXUV,7TZ[  7ilWJU  ,n *Qn(WJY`Z\l
B G:;= K
[]Z\    n  H[]Y`UV,7TZ LN:P WJYXiW  ,n *Q
:Y`Z 7 Za YXUUlmiW UWJZ\[]WHlZ -Zaj.WJ[k
5   n     s : `n  5 9    "!

#h *  L~

( :,

ZalZd hs [WJYXZd Z\^X[ U^R^XV,TZ\l U{j.U,U^XZ\^`WJ[]XUdE{i^`   $

[WJY`ZxV,,,Z\lJ,lUTiT WJHi7V,ZU:WJY`Zej.Y J[HV,ilZ\ []WJl TV,W U^ WJY&%:Z\


HlZ\Z\[dUkJlZ\Z\:UQe^UWJY`Z\l Ul:[]   $ [WJYXZ }>o .HV,i^`W 7ZU WJY`Zj.Y
[H V,ilZ\ [WJl TV,W U^ WJ'
Y %k:Z\HlZ\Za[{U$JlZ\Z\:U[UWJYXiW$WJYXZ ,lUTiT WJiTUHZ
 $ [ Q
& m *Q
E?=
:uJ; K ~$V,,,U[]ZiHi ^ WJYXiW 1El DDDl1 ' ilZn& m i^Xg
gZ i^`W}WJU WJZa[]WHWJY`iWs [oZalUEQ\UWJZ_WJYXiW
'
*
)*,+

0
0

|E

81 s

 n=




\
ZZ\Hi7V,iWJZ   HiW`WJY`Z :: ZHZ\W

n   _
 1 n   c=

0 Ti
J

|
E*





:Y`ZHi0V,ZU WJY`iW}i  Z\[  Y`Z\^ [


n

'

)*,+

:Y`Z\lZaJUlZ\

1 n    _

z n  9

:Y`Z 0 Z\ Y`UUlmiW U WJZ\[]WHlZp-Z\j.WJ[n


*+

n
n  

*,+

*,+ .

'

'

81

*
* 1


Rf}QRP

81

.
&U i,,lZ\j iWJZ Y`Rf}QRP [iclZai[]U^`iT7ZeWJZa[]WXj.U^X[ :Z\l,lm[]W YXiW{Y`i,,Z\^X[
Q:Y`Z\^ 1 7:TZj.7U[]ZWJUi^` Jlmij.W U^ ^X[ EZ WJY`Z7U ^bRf}QRP 7
TZj.7U[]ZWJUPQe:Y`Z0UUP [[UWJY`Z7Z\JW YXi^`[ EZ UdRf}QRP 7WJZa^` WJU
TZc[]i7}[]UWJY`iW Ze:U^XUW{lpZ -Z\j.W,WJYXZe^`V,7}Y`H,UWJY`Za[ [Q:j.UV,lm[]Z\WJY [ [WJYXZ
l HYXWX:Z\j [ U^
Q\~ ,7Zdi7HZ\Tlmie[]YXU [ WJY`iW
'
'
*
*

)*,+ 1 )*+ 81 1
0 1

:Y`Z\lZaJUlZ\ [^XUW`WJY`Za^WJYXZd7Z\JW`Y`i^`[ :ZUnRf}QRP 7XWJZa^`xWJU TZe7ilHZ


[]UWJY`iW ZlZ -Zaj.WXWJYXZ^XV,7Y`H,UWJY`Z\[ [i[ Z[]Y`UV,7oQ
0

'

*,+ .

'

* 1

f~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s


M (

2
Q

lmi^`:UHil iT0Zej.i^TZ:Z\[]j.l TZ\T


,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV WJU^
,:

,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^`[nj.i^TZd[]V,il Z\T
Z\,Z\j.WJZ\}i7V,Z

Hil i^Xj.Z `Uls[]WJi^`:ilEZa iW U^


j.UHil i^Xj.Zci^`j.UllZ\7iW U^
JU
l TZ\W Z\Z\^ i^`P z  [j.i77Z\WJYX
Z  DNU I:= C:D @JuJ; Ul ANN  ND 
:;9*>.; CED @JuJ;
,lUTiT WJ+
[kTZ\7U WJ[ ]WJX
Y HV,i^`W 7Z [ Qa^UWJYXZ\l UlE[


l z  (
<

<

<
<

;GE@J= C [kWJY`Z,Z\lj.Z\^`W 7ZUl_Q ;HV,i^`W 7Z


<

b)Zl

<
2

71
81+*

>.FH9*9*;uJ= D @JF C >.FH;<m5:>.@J; C:D T Z\W Z\Za^ i ^`C1



2 2 a
<

WJY`ZTZ\[]W} ^`Z\il,lZ\ j.WJUlsUm1 [


<

 81
1n

<

<

 8

Z\,Z\j.WJZ\[HV,ilZ\x,lZ\ j.W U ^Z\lmlUl


71 1n 2

 

l,


2 2 }
2

[o^XUWXUT[]ZalHZ\WJY`Za^ 
1 n x81

f}P

,  $6$ 

L
<

aZ $,Z\j.WJZa[8}V,ilZ\x,lZa j.W U^Z\lmlUl [ 2

b&m HWJY`Z\^ 4{n ;$ sa_


8[1$.n]&81
il8[1]ko il81p

x<cl1nocmxLlx81p
il< l 1 o
sil$ * k Uk V1* i il81
~$V,,,U[]Z
<

:YXZ\^`WJYXZ_Z\$,Zaj.WJiW U^Ue [

x8i

QQQ

x
QQQ
x eV

<

<

<

<

i^XWJY`Z_j.UHil i^`j.ZciWJl Um [

sil$
Uol5 ::Uolc

U 
il
::Uo 
(x8
QQQ
QQQ
QQQ
QQQ
Uk >:U5 :: ile

:YXZUMKK:,JUl{io[]i,7Z [E:Z\,^`Z\i[EWJY`Zn[]i77Z\[]W&Hi7V,ZUB(JUl Y j.Y


WJYXZ^`V,7Y`H,UWJYXZ\[ [ [olZp-Z\j.WJZ\JUlWJY`iW}[]i,7ZHQ

8 V: [nWJY`Z / 7 Z\ YXUUJV,^`j.W U.^ 1
 ,
i V, 7 Z\ Y`UU Z\[]W iWJU.l -:/
-xHi7V,ZU WJYXiW i  Z\[
 ,
HUl[]UZU:Z\7[[]V,j.Yi[(WJY`ZS(n SW Z[]Z\l Z\[cU:Z\7[]:WJY`ZalZilZ
[UJW ilZ,ij iHZ\[]aZHQ H S(i^`~&S(~&WJYXiWXj.U,V,WJZWJY`Z :

ff~>k*(;n
.i ) d *L * H,o(, s
<

 8

:Y`Z 0 Z\ Y`UUxliW U WJZ\[]WHlZp-Z\j.WJ[n


n

 0n `
5
 s : `
5   n1{     n   9    !
-(^XV,TZ\lU}j.U,U^`Z\^XWJ[ UX E
 h s2
 $ [WJY``Z V,,,Z\lJ,lUTiT WJHi7V,Z_UWJY`Zj.Y J[ HV,ilZ\ []WJl TV,

W U^ WJ3
Y %d:Z\HlZaZ\[ UXJlZ\Z\:U

 @

TRDS`&E(Q&F?c$ .
wFE

:Z\W

T ZWJYXZ,l j.ZU`i^i[][]Z\WHiWXW ZmQ


S[[]V, ^`^`U EZa^`:[ WJY`Zd4PQdP [


s
EYXZLMKYPm:dP}dP [

L
L

L L

b
E?= :uJ; K  ki^` L t WJY`Z\^
"
yb 9 W i^`
= Wt
EYXZ}lU[][ lZ\WJV,lm^UHZ\lWJYXZU[]WXlZ\j.Z\^`4W %d,Zal U:[ 5%WJU [
yb %H



$

::
$


" $

} ib B ::a} i $
"
kZaWJV,l^X[ilZ[j.i0ZaJJlZ\Z\Zai^ ^`WJY`iW,WJYXZ\:U^`UW,:Z\,Z\^XU^xV,^ WJ[REU7
7il[`j.Z\^XWJ[]HZ\WJjQ QnkZaWJV,l^X[_ilH
Z THV,^ WJ7Z\[][Q :Y`Z lV,^ W [W 9Z {WJYXZ\x:Z\,Z\^X
U^WJY`ZV,^ WJ[nU sRYXUV,l:i2Z\WJjQ Q
E?=
:uJ; K
f

f

~k*#;no*kt
Z
b
bJ
bJ

y
i
i

NM

f

}f P
PQ 

f
Q }P
PQ 

}f Pf
PQ 
PQ }P
PQ 

 .
TFHE

_B

U^XW ^`V,UV,[]7j.U,UV,^X:Z\lZ\WJV,lm^`[]ai0[U `^ U
^ i[/0U lZ\WJV,lm^`[1nilZ

l&
} ib

 Wr

  W

Y`ZalZ


687 F D = D @JF C:K
, 7Z\i^WJY`Zk^`iWJV,lmi0UHil WJY`UWJY`lUV,HY`UV,WWJY`Za[]Z

^XUWJZ\[Q  ] { 7TZV,[]ZaWJU EZa^`UWJZxWJYXZ7UHil WJYX WJUTi[]ZWJZ\^` W [
^XZ\Z\:Z\oQ:9
;:F9*; D I:9 C y=9*;c
= * :9*FH?@J= D ;u v ; I:=u D F9*; D IE9 C y K
<K
< ([]i77  } iG{
:uJ;y K
< :?=(
} iK Wo=
|4K
=

} 4 Wo=
W2
=

< []Z\Z }V,lZ}QP
 } ib  < Q
< WJY`Z\lZ\JUlZ\
.

S(:}i^XWJiHZ[ , j WJUXV,0W ,Z\l UxlZ\WJV,lm^`[


H

%

b %H
$}ib B::4}i $ 
"

}ib

o:::
} ib



G
o::: $

"

$
"

:*~h & n*n

f

 ;

0.2

0.1

0
log(1+x)
x

0.1

0.2
0.2

0.1

0
x

HV,lZ}QRP?>:LMK:PDX RRO:D


0.1


0.2

}iG{D\>^

  .
TFHE

&CHQA@RDB B

ghY`iW}j.i^ Z[]iiTUV,WXlZ\WJV,lm^`[
Q ZHQ WJY`Z\ilZli^X:UQ
< :YXZ\ j.i^X^`UWXTZd,Z\lmJZ\j.WJ7,lZ\ j.WJZ\x
< Z Z\lZi^`j Z\^XWoelZ\Z [] Z UV,7WJY ^ UoWJYXZlZ\WJV,lm^`[ei[:Z\WJZal
 ^XZ\TWJY`ZcU:[ UlsHiWJZ\[RWJYXlZ\ZeUE:Z\[[]Z\[EU}:Z\[W ^XHQ4:Y`Z_clZaZ [
^`UWH[]Z\Z\WJU(lZai ZWJY`iWHlmi^`:U ,Y`Z\^XUZ\^`i_:U(Z\Y T WH[]UZ_lZ\H
V,7il W Z\[_[]V,j.Yxi[WJY`Ze7i U:0il}Ze^`V,TZ\lm[i^XWJYXZej.Z\^XWJlmiX  WsWJYXZ\U
lZ\Q
,Z\WJZ\lEZal^X[]WJZ ^YXi[ l WJWJZ\^ i^ ^XWJZ\lZ\[W ^X,U,V,7ilcTUU /S(}i ^X[]WoWJYXZ
cU:[:Y`ZcnZ\il iT7Z~$WJUlmUE [ ?Q 1Zj.Y`lU^ j.0Za[_WJY`Zc:Z\HZ\7U,Z\^XWJ[U
,lUTiT WJWJYXZ\Ulm(i^`UV,lsV,^`:Z\lm[]WJi^` ^`U}l [ Q
WoWJUU i[V,l,l []Z\70U^XW ZJUl,lUTiT WJ WJY`Z\UlmWJU:Z\HZ\7UkQEYXZ
i^`j Z\^XW`clZaZ [ ^XUWHY`iHZd,lUTiT WJWJY`ZaUl$Q
,lUTiT WJilUUV,W}U`HiT ^`:V,l ^` WJY`ZnZ\^`i [][]i^Xj.ZHQ
^ }Zal[ WJU{Y j.iHUZ\j.U^XU [W`Hlmi^ 
B ^ HY`W JP}PUl^XZ\7,Y`, []
W ^`HV []Y`Z\[ TZaW ZaZ\^

f

~k*#;no*kt

Z\i[]V,lmiT7ZoV,^Xj.Z\lmWJi ^`WJUl&/l [ ,lU,ZalJ1kRZHQ sQ }iZa[EUj.Y`i^Xj.Z\ YXZ\lZ


WJY`Z,lUTiT W Za[ilZ ^`U ^
< V,^`Z\i[V,liT7ZV,^Xj.Z\lmWJi ^XWJRZHQ sQ `,^`i^Xj.Z\ Y`Z\lZ WJY`Z ,lUTiT W Z\[(ilZ
V,^ ^`U ^
S(WW Z t(  i^X ilZ^XUWU^`7(V,^ ^`U ^X4TV,W Z:Uc^XUW ^`U WJY`Z l
,lUTiT WJ [WJl TV,W U^`[Q
U Z\HZ\l Zoj.i^Z\[]W iWJZWJYXZ\[]Zo,lUTiT WJ [WJl TV,W U^`[  R ZilZ 77
^`WJU i Zi^i[][]V,,W U^ Q
<

:;= FH< ! =@ DN


HV,WJV,lZlZ\WJV,lm^`[ 7TZ[  7ilnWJU,i[]WXlZ\WJV,lm^`[Q
UlZ,lZ\j []Z\72WJY`Z,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^U  j.i^TZEZaWJZ\lm ^XZ\RUl
iWX0Zai[]WXZa[]W iWJZ\:XJlU,i[]W}EiWJi}Q
g WJYWJY [eRT H{i[][V,,W U^X Zj.i^HZ\WH[]UZ YXZ\lZ_i^X Z 7Z
S([][]Z\W`,l j ^`U:Z\7[RZHQ sQXS(, EV,[ZcWJY` Z -U ^XWE []WJl TV,W U^xU,i(j.lU* [][]
[]Zaj.W U
^ 5 DDDdm kU`lZ\WJV,lm^`[kU^i[][]ZaWJ[oiW,ic[ ^XH0ZdW ZHmQ&Z\lZ  [
WJYXZlZ\WJV,lm^U^WJY`DZ C0WJYi[][]Z\W}iW`W Z mQ
(WJY`Z\lsU:Z\7[ V,[]ZWJY`Z_W Z[]Z\l Z\[ 5 l mc9 DDDdm U}lZ\WJV,lm^X[ U^ie[ ^`H7Z
i[][Z\WXiW}W Z\>[ 9t DDD:mQ\gZ 7[]WJilmW WJYie[ ^XH0Zi[][Z\WQ
;

B

B F

PBc dFE



GHG

B T

 .
wFE

Qd

Z\lZlmc:DDDilZWJYXZlZ\WJV,lm^`[JlU ix[ ^XH0Zi[[]Z\WQSj.UU^ U:Z\ [


WJYXiW`WJY`Za ilZ
PQnV,WJV,i70 ^XEZa,Z\^`:Z\^XW
f}Q EZa^`W j.i70h []WJl TV,WJZ\: Q ZHQ WJY`ZaY`iHZWJY`Z,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^`[
i^` ^,ilmW j.V,0il [iZdZ\i^i^XHil i^Xj.ZHQ
}Qn^`Ulmi77 []WJl TV,WJZ\
I
- @ ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`Wi^` @ EZa^`W j.i70 G, []WJl TV,WJZ\
:Y`Z\lZilZRiWX0Zai[]WJ`W U,lUT7Z\[ WJYWJY [kU:Z\
< :Y`Z(U:Z\ , Z\[WJY`Z,U[][ T WJxUEV,^`  WJZa7U[][]Z\[TV,Ws iT WJ [
V,[]V,i77  WJZ\* J >[ ^`j.ZHUV j.i^7U[]Z^XUUlZWJY`i^}UV,l ^X
HZ\[]WJZ\^XW
::\} . $ [n^`UWH^`Ulmi[]V,[
< &  %Hn } . ]} B
U`^XUli7[kilZ^`UlmiTV,W`^XUWX[U WJY,lU:"V,j.WJ[Q

~ o No$2N !$

f}

 



w

WC i_HBFHB



QdNPBc d

Sh[]Z\j.U^`UEZai[[]V,Z\[EWJY`iWWJY`Zoj.U^`W ^`V,UV,[0j.U,UV,^X:Z\[ ^`H7Z\J,Z\l U


lZ\WJV,lm^`[{i7[]U ^XU ^i[WJY`Z7UlZ\WJV,lm^`[di^` EZa^`UWJZ\T :ilZQkZaj.i0
WJY`iW}WJY`Z7UlZaWJV,l^ [

} b

Z yb & [nWJYXZ[ ,7ZHlU[][ lZ\WJV,lm^
Y`Z\l
EYXV,[] Zi[][]V,ZWJY`iW
} i
b& m

[]UWJYXiW h E!^XUlil*Q $QR  _[]UWJYXiW K 5Q:Y [o[]U7}Za[WJY`Z,lm[]W
,lUT7Z\Q
S7[]U
yb  %H
} i B
::\} ib $
s B ::s $ "
s o::9 $ " p
"
EYXZ\lZ\JUlZ\
Ti  %H K
o:: $

~&V,[EU^`Ulmi7[ilZo^`Ulmi? LWJY`Zn[]Zaj.U^`,lUT7" Z\ [[]U7HZ\^XUli7
WJU`[ ^XH0Z,Z\l UlZ\WJV,lm^`[ , Za[o^XUli WJU}V,7W ,7Z,Z\l UxlZ\WJV,lm^X[Q
EYXZ0UH^XUli& []WJl TV,W U^HUZ\[ Tij WJUEUV [n:ij.Y`Z\ Z\lJPQ
< [][]ZalWJiW U^iWX~&UlmTU^`^XZ_j.i70ZaNMxZKOMZK:PQP R J|MKOVTD
/Qa:ij.YXZ\ ZalY`i[Z\ :Z\^`j.Zai^Ul ^Xi{i^`,lZ\j []Z ^`
< ,U ^Xj.iSl ZR &
6 TV,TW 9\WJYXZ[]V,:
T -Z\j.W [[]UZ YXiWlZ\UWJZJlUWJYXU[]ZUV,l:UWJYXZ\l,j.i^` :iWJZ\[
ilZ ^WJY`ZY`iT WXU`WJlZ\iW ^XQY1
Z 1liWJYXZ\lcWJYXi
^ /Z\^XW U^
< :ij.YXZ\ Zal i[ i il:Z\ /Z\^`W U^ Y`U^XUlmiT0J
WJ l Z\U [ YXU^`UlmiT7Z 1kEij.YXZ\ Z\l^`Za}ZalJUV,^`ie:Z\j.Z\^XWHij.iEZa Lj -UTEQ
< :ij.YXZ\ Zali^`W j ,iWJZ\ ^`[]WJZ ^ [JP,WJY`Z\UlmU`:lU ^ i^UW U^ Q
^Pf}:lU ^`&i(~$j.UWJW [YTUWJi^ [WJUT[]Z\lmHZ\WJYXZcZ\lmlmiW j.&V,^`,lZ\ j.WJiT7Z
UW U^U`,U77Z\^Hli ^X[oV,^XEZalsid j.lU[]j.U,ZHQ
^X[]WJZ ^JPsUHZ\Z\^XW`:V,ZWJUTUTil:Z\^XW{T iWJZ\l U7Z\j.V,7Z\[
^`[]WJZ ^ :Z\HZ\7U,Z\ixiWJY`Z\Z\W j.inWJY`ZaUl ^` ,lZ\j []
Z HV,i^XW WJiW HZ
,lZ\ j.W U^`[Q

f

~k*#;no*kt

: iWJZ\lXUlmTZ\lmWEg Za^`Z\lXi^ iWJY`ZaiW j i^X,EZa}Za0U,ZaiUlZ,lZ\


j []ZoiWJY`Z\iW j.iUEZaU:lU ^ i^ UW U^Q4:Y [U:Z\ [s^`U j.i77Z\WJY`Z
g Z\^`Zal,lUj.Z\[[Q
6 S([ :ZHP i[kie}UUHZ\ilJUls ^X[]WJZ ^ QaZ,V,T []Y`Z\o
< WJY`Z,i,Z\l ^XWJlU:V,j ^`WJYXZWJY`Z\UlmU`[],Z\j ilZ\7iW WJ
^ HV,i^`W iW U^U }YXW Y j.Y7Z\
HV,i^`WJV,WJY`ZaUl Y j.YY`Z
< i,i,Z\l:UH
^`Z\HZ\lsZ\Tlmij.Z\ /eUx:UZ\[ ^`UW},7i j.Z WJYWJY`Z Ulm0i 1
^ 9
< WJY`Z,i,Z\lsU^ElU ^ i^UW U2
:ij.Y`Z\ Z\l[WJiWJZ\WJYXiW
U 1RWJY [ [cZ\[]
< /:Y`ZiWJYXZ\iW j.isZa$,Z\j.WJiW U^UWJYXZ[],Z\j.V,7iWJUl [dZ\lL
[]Z\^XW i77cWJl*V,ZnU&[Y`UlmWJJWJZ\lm[],Z\j.V,7iW U^TV,W^`UWU&7U^XcWJZ\lm ^X}Za[]W ^`H
[ ^`j.ZWJY`Z[]WJUj il ZaWX:UZ\[ HUV,U^iHZ\lmiHZ\
< /W [Z\ :Z\^XW{WJY`iW`WJY`Ze,lZ\[]Z\^XW`WJY`ZaUl[]U7}Za[WJY`Zd8i -Ul WJU{,lUT7Z\[
^WJYXZ_[]WJV,: UX[],Z\j.V,7iW U^TWJY`Z_j.i7j.V,7V,[UX,lUTiT WJ1
:ij.Y`Z\ Z\l [eWJY`Za[ [j.iZWJUx }YXWij.j :Z\^`WJ7UlZ WJY`i^HZ\ilm[diJWJZal_Y`Z
lUWJZ WQEYXZ[]WJiW []W j i^ i^`Z\j.U^`U []W V  Z~$iHi}ZJUV,^X iTUU T
:ij.Y`Za Z\l ^ WJYXZQY j.iHU Tlmilm i^`bi[ ZaUWJY`ZaldZ\j.U^XU []WJ[iTUV,W WQ
,iV,s~&iV,Z\7[]U^JUV,^X :ij.YXZ\ Zal [WJY`Za[ [ ^ WJY`Z Tlmilm&Q(:Y`Z:^`H []Y
WJlmi^`[0iW U^ i[,V,T []Y`Z\ ^P W
^ MZKFXD\:LY>ZK:P:O:P RJ?:O[Z]\ :PQZ:d
^POVQ_$i^Z\ WJZ\}U7V,ZHQ
:?=
EuJ; K S[ ,7Z HlU[][lZaWJV, l^X} [e7UH^`Ulmi Rm 5 Y j.Y
Z\i^X[oWJYXiW  } ib [dz 5m 5 *Q\ghY`iW [ } i
$S*
DW]
C y.r;9 K ~ ^Xj.Zd7UsJQ =
} dc
 m S $
$m DWt Tw : $
m >9 Wo=
4Kt
} dc Sn

^SE:S(: cdfn( 1.05) = .1469 Q
:?=
EuJ; K
S([][]V,ZiHi ^WJY`iW  [ 7UH^`Ulmi Rm 5 Q\ ^XWJY`Z_,lUTiT WJWJY`iW
id[ ,0ZHlU[][ W UJ,Z\l UlZ\WJV,lm^ [k7Z\[][ WJYXi^Q }Q
P7:Y`ZW UJ,Zal U}lU[][lZ\WJV,lm^
[7Ub^`Ulmiz m 5 d[UWJY [
,lUTiT WJ [
m S


(m H4k=
K 9
]m 5 $
:Z\W [n,^`ieHZ\^`Zali$JUlmV,0ieJUlWJY`Z`%\WJY,Z\l UxlZ\WJV,lm^`[
S([][]V,Z_WJYXiW

( $

 ; 

f

N 

b %Hn}ib B::\}ib $ *Q
*
"

<  } ib db&m HJUli7C


*
:

X
Y
Z
X
5

ilZV,WJV,i77 ^`:Z\,Z\^XEZa^`WQ
<
EYXZ\^  T*  %H [ WJYXZ[]V, U% ^X :Z\,Z\^`:Z\^XW{b&m lmi^`:U Hil
iT7Z\[][]UWJY`iW  } ib  %H* b %&& T% *Q
 ,
5%&
Tib %H4Le$j

%
<

Q&F?cB

Qd:

:Z\WAal[an9DDD5TZc WJYZ\i^i^`[]WJi^XEil:Z\ iW U^EQa [i^ilmT


WJlmil []WJilmW ^`,U ^XWQaEZaWba&si^X
b
a&yca o::9da   9
opl DDD [j.i77Z\ ilmi^XEU i QdgZ Y`iHZ ea&5fa& i^`
il 6Vea *Q\EYXZ_,ilmiZ\WJZ\lo [kj.i77Z\WJYXZ /El JW 1kU}WJY`Zlmi^`:U i
i^` WHEZaWJZ\lm ^XZ\[EWJY`ZHZ\^XZ\lmi lZ\j.W U^ UWJY`Zlmi^`:U i Q:YXZ,ilmiZ\WJZ\l
[WJY`ZHU7iW WJi^`EZaWJZ\lm ^XZ\[YXU V,j.YWJYXZli^X:U i [ %,V,j.WJV,iWJZ\[
iTUV,WXWJYXZZ\ig
^ a y mQ
heqxq r

iAvx~jvk{}tyQzJkk w~jml

nZ\j.i7WJY`iW

b  %H

Ti


i
$

kon

Q\EYXZ\lZ\JUlZ

o::9 $
"
% Kt  o::: $
"

Hk

[]UWJi } ^Xp%K ZYXi}Z


s tsdrl o:::G p

F C >.uJI:y.@JF CEK WJY`Z0UlZ\WJV,lm^`[eilZ^`Ulmi7[]{WJY`Za^WJYXZ,lUj.Za[][ L


_7
9t DDD [WJY`ZZ\,U^`Z\^XW iU,ilmi^XEU i QHgZej.i7`[V,j.Yi(,lUj.Z\[[oi
/HZ\UZ\WJl jolmi^`:U i 1oUlsiV
^ /Z\$,U^XZ\^`W i$li^X:U i YQ 1
L (  } ib [b& m WJYXZ\^WJY`ZZ\ i^Us [ ts "[ ^Xj.Z

"tssp5n }dc 4tEs*o )hs &m s



xnK
s
b \ Z\ i^

~k*#;no*kt

Random Walk
9
mean
mean + SD
mean SD

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
0

10

time

HV,lZd}Q f}H\ D(D\`MKPmrq7rqH]:P`qd:\K.D(


PD\:L:8Z ]Zd r_H S
D\
7^huD?P`YKLNQ_ZKMKPZrqHrq7]:P+ RDqH|YgqHdZKMKPmrq7rqH]:P
qd:\KOs\K:ZK\NOPKQtuOuv?w@^
heqxq p

x]yhv(vSzTzWvkz|{~z
{oyhv(wutyoz{{

:Y`Z HZ\UZ\WJl jelmi^`:U i U:Z\,:UZ\[;T ,7WJY`iWU^XZ j.i^X^`UWi Z


U^XZ\ ^WJY`Z[WJUj il Z\WQ  V WJZWJYXZj.U^XWJlilm2,[ ^`j.Z [HZ\^XZ\lmi70,U[
W HZ\WJY`ZalZ [_i^V, ilG
/:l JW1WJUWJY`Zlmi^XEU i QEHUloZa$i,7Z\WJYXZc7U
lZaWJV,l^X[U^xWJYXZc(~[]WJUj il Z\W,i[_i YXU7ZcY`iHZi(Z\i^U:iTUV,WoPi^X
ic[WJi^`:il:Z\ iW U^U`iTUV,W`fQ$:Z\W [k0UU iW{fcHZ\ilm[kU`HZ\UZ\WJl jolmi^X
:U i WJY 0
_i^X Q:Y`ZZ\$,Zaj.WJZ\7UlZaWJV,l^U^Z\ij.Y[]WJZ\
[QPQ:Y`ZZ\,Z\j.WJZ\7U lZ\WJV,lm^ JUl(fHZ\ilm[ UV,7TZ RfJQRP|
-f}Q }Q:Y`Z
Z\ i^}lU[][_lZ\WJV,lm^ >[ tJ(/
w K QoWJYXZ [WJUj ,l j.Z[]WJilmWJ[_i.W }P`WJY`Z
Z\ i^,l j.ZiJWJZ\lfHZ\ilm[ [ }}Q I :YXZZ\,Z\j.WJZ\,l j.ZiJWJZ\lfHZ\ilm[ [
}Pt$J9]m 5.J9]m  \w(9lDQ
}V,lZ}Q []Y`U [W U ^`:Z\,Z\^X:Z\^`Wo[ V,0iW U^X[UfHZ\ilm[UiHZ\U
Z\WJl jli^X:U i WJYWJY`Z\[ZcHi0V,Za[Uni^` EQE:Y`Z(,l j.Z\[_[]WJilmW:iWP}Q
UW j.ZdWJYXiW{WJY`ZW U[]Zal Z\[nU{7UlZaWJV,l^X[n0UU HV WJZ JZ\lZ\^XWQ$U Za}ZalWJY`Z
[]\_^:`o`h:`eNn{bleNs c{n blerjk^o` s `_gnph qeNgYaZ`njk`e~}uo`neNf gYfmT}:J2i^o`ez` *gYf jk^o`
f]jkneNjkgYho qeNgYaZ`|
[
]\_^:`6o`h:`eNn{DbleNs c{n bletjk^o`*`8q`aZjk`qeNgam`njk`e}ud`npeNfJgf? HZ9T}:'}7
|

n o Nko*n;nLN  $2N  X, (*

 ;

}P

Lognormal densities
0.7

=0, =1
=1,=1
=0, =1.2

0.6

density

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0

10

HV,lZ}Q }}YX:PLN:\K]7^
7U ,l j.Z\[ i^`,l j.Z\[ 7UU [V,j.YUlZ_[  0il*Q:Y`Z_lZ\i[]U^ [ WJY`iWHWJYXZ\(TUWJY
Y`iHZ Y j.YUHZ\lkWJY`Ze0U^Xxl*V,^ HZ\[_i^V, ilWJlZ\^`oQ{^WJY`Z,7UWJ[]
WJY`Z_Z\ i^`[nU}WJY`Z_7UlZ\WJV,lm^`[]\7U ,l j.Z\[\i^`,l j.Z\[ ilZi7[]U,0UWJWJZaQ5EYXZ\
ilZ[]UUWJYj.V,lmHZ\[Q

lDB$ .
wFE&Qd:

FHB T



`.TR
.dc|

Qd: cRDE

:Y`Z\lZnilZk[]Z\HZ\lmi iH[EWJUdj.YXZ\j YXZ\WJY`Z\lX7UelZ\WJV,lm^X[EilZolZai07c^XUlmi07 []


WJl TV,WJZaQ(^`Z i [oWJU7UU iW{ic^XUli,lUTiT WJ,7UW{U`WJYXZd7UlZ\WJV,lm^X[
WJU[]Z\Z HWJYXZ,7UW [ i,,lU iWJZ\7(i[]WJlmi }YXW ^XZHQaS(^`UWJYXZ\l,Z\WJY`U [ WJUc7UU
iWXWJYXZ_[]i,7Z[ Z ^`Z\[][i^` V,lmWJU[ [U}WJY`Z_7UlZ\WJV,lm^`[ i^`WJU(j.Y`Z\j XWJY`Z l
Hi0V,Za[ilZ^XZ\ileWJYXU[]ZUoWJYXZ^`Ulmi []WJl TV,W U^Q ~ Z ^`Za[][ei^X V,lmWJU[ [
Z\i[]V,lZ(WJYX+
Z /[]YXi,Z 1Usi,lUTiT WJ []WJl TV,W U^i^`ilZ ^`:Z\,Z\^X:Z\^`W:U
WJY`Z(Z\i^i^` Hil i^`j.ZHQ:HZ\l*V^XUlmi, []WJl TV,W U^Y`i[i[ Z ^`Z\[][j.UZ\,
j Z\^`W}U`di^`i V,lmWJU[ [ U}}Q
~&V,,,U[]Z WJYY`iHZi W Z[Z\l Za[Uc7UhlZ\WJV,lm^X[] l DDDd DDDdDU^
[]UZi[][Z\WQ:Y`Zx[]i,7ZZ\i^bi^`[]WJi^XEil:Z\ iW U^bUWJY [[]Zal Z\[ ilZ

f

~k*#;no*kt

Log returns are N(.1,(.2)2)

log return

0.5

GRM
GRM
median

0.5

10

15

20

10

15

20

10

15

20

year
8

log price

GRM
GRM
median

6
5
4

5
year

2000

price

1500
1000

GRM
GRM
median
mean

500
0

5
year

0O? ?]A8? Q Q Q4 Q8`8:8rA1?Qr:Q8AQr rcr8]:Dg


r&'NQ 8rDr"Q r]rQr88[Q QQrr"DQ r]r rQ Q
TQ QJ8: OTrQO: 8o?rQr88J 8:Q84:Q' Q8[Q]] QoD: `Qr rQ?
Qr~: Q 8r

? ?FF~O ~0gON~0JD0 K ~



|

~1]+ 0?S ++~1S




40



]+ 00 ++~'


 

 




4O0





~1  r+A0 + 2
1 +0SA ?   10 +

]1 ~+ 02 ~.O+ 0+'1S+~ 1 1K r0 +


+10 1]|S0T ~+ 0F
 2 O 0SH "[ ?S 1
~+ 1~ r

1 r&+ r  A S D r+| S0'1 r&



 
  

#"



 !  


&%

('
~
r SK1 J0 1 ( J+'F '
) '  
r+0 +
0
r K *K 0 10+
 `01
41`0 1+#-, ~T0|? .o0 12 1
0 +10N 00.
r1JT 4~T0AD~1o  ~1J

r+O0 +-K1 0 1&r

 +4'~ S0T+
0
rF~K O0 +
 ~ 0 11~ r
 1  1S.? /'
 SK0
1 0 502r
+000 N+.

 1 
+ 1.+ 02-D
3 S 4 4 6587 09 1&1.00 32 
+ 0O1 2+1 |
: 0 25<; 4  0O =>]
 0 .
 ~ 0
? `
`O+1 4@
7 .A B'
1 T S+ !r
0 1+ &'
0CD3E
 'J]1 F-D
3 '' ' 1G? (r
: 0 `1]+ 0
J 1@
 Hr
" 'r
0 o 4@ ? 587 '$IKJ ? 5 5L7NM O.SP #r
&'
+4
 1 .1 /r
0 + 0#-D
3 |'1K1 <-D
3
1R
Q 1~ +H'SD
3 T1+rRT 1 0'S
U 4r 1|W
V /'
T 1`
 +TX`
Q H1F . *Y"Z1@" FQF
 NQr
0 Y"Z1@" FQJ
 0+S
1K
[ ('S\ 1SS+'1 r
p-r
+JT 0'S
U OT]" ^Y"Z1_" <Q~
`>H
T  S.
a>~ +
T  + r
+b`
151c>'
1 T  S+T a1d '
1SNr

11'1JJ~J000A1 000D
+0A
 1]+Td _r
' Q0 0r
~0]`0e T1]4S+
2]
V ?o]'SHT T3
 +2 +SNg1. 0W~+ Hr
| '
' 0f-D
3 | 1p F-D
3
&
T 0o'SN
U '+O_r
+5c1T F0 50
+(r

AD +g1*r
S &S S31T g: 0 1 N


hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

f:

+ 0 0 1S~1 r S J 0A1 r+1 0


+ 1?
D  ?0 S| r F  rA | r0+ 
 ?  0 D oJ? & 1| + 1
D 0 r 

~
?
1
D
1   0 

]+ r


~  30 1 
r + r  D rS
 D r
? ~1]~ J0T r

F ?S . 111
gD 1~ H ~1~1 DSpJ0+D r+1 0T r
2S r ~ H 1
 r J0]? H1]10 1 5 11]S0T

QQ 1 041' D+ r ? r1 r0

0.
~1]|S0TJ + 0S 1+ 1~ ~ +'1+
r+A0 +A A
 0
+0 r HS~1 0F
 0]+'+2 r+A0 +A r ` 1+0?S+ 1
.0 1 00 S.1 J+ 0F

~1 ]
 1 `~ + D 1r 1
1SS+ AT  1 ' 0SD F 0 0+0 r H
H rO r 0O r~O SS r+H 0J r0K10101S+
T  1 r0 +] &

-3 jr
a:
G

G" s .

uT
v'
xw 0 g:

H
 2D3 y H
H; 
H'
z
`{
@-3 4
!| a:
}{
4~ ? |L7 (

 JX{ 4 ~ ? |87P 4 J 4 ~ ? |87P `|


, r
C #


! 3

>..
}3

=w...


.


8"
.


 .

U j
Q B

.
 ..]

].>



qYu"Z1_" FQ WV

.
.
L'S



j
H

T H

.

.
C

/'ST
L'S



%

 XQ
 > .
.
v

f

('S3

0>



}[



('



g

cKE$W WtKjtL<yKEB<t#.W<aK
0? K
1'L9L S01~+0  ~
T ~ ' '
  0 STD `1 ~ gg0 1 }'
1 J1 1'S'

O 1~Y' F|1.
 * 0  1 A 1u S10u ? S 0
5~1T~1&/
50 1|N+ JN

'
F+' ~ r0O3~+10+&'S& 1~ ' g 1
 |  4p0? |+'. ~01~+0 S
+ ?~ rJ0 S10T r+ST : 1~ ' A0J
D 4'110 r+ :.?S  ' ]0S 1
1T '1+0]~  r'0 r 11]0 r
0 A 4 1~ ' ~S]1 1~ ' ~
r 0 T ~Y' JS F + HST
1~ ' 0] 1S?  0 rS 1 ~0 1K1   4 +

~1? 0 r r0 +
0 r]ST 1~ '
1 ~ r   H1 4 1~ 01++~1

"

69L


1






L

H
 .


H

('



j

? ?FF~O ~0gON~0JD0 K ~

'

101S+20F1 1]0 1 :r888? Q Q Q4 1~1S


A0 rTo F o'10 r1 r D ?~ r1 K1
0 1 r F ?' 0 + r ~ rS1.
+ 3 J1JST D 1~ ' 10+ g'2o0 
1++0 O1 0S S']1 ]+0~S '  ~ r r S 2




"Z

.

#9

a


L
 (

.





KU


.

.'

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

GE, daily 12/17/99 to 12/15/00


60

0.06
0.04

55
Return

price

0.02
50

0
0.02

45
0.04
40

50

100

150

200

0.06

250

50

100

150

200

250

Normal plot of log returns


0.06

0.999
0.997
0.99
0.98
0.95
0.90

0.04

Probability

log return

0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06

50

100

150

200

250

50

100

150

200

250

0.75
0.50
0.25
0.10
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.003
0.001

0.04

0.02
0
log return

0.02

0.04

0.06
0.05

Volatility

0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0

/=

0]? ? r88":?Q? QH 88O: 2 Q8[Q? QQTrr: 8QDr"


: AH":?QAr : A8o o:Q0 r:D 88AOrQ`r "rr88:` 8
: F8oo:Q] ?r? 88|: FrQr84:O8opo:Q A: QoK8KQT:QQ 8
Qr:':O Q8Q rd : Q: 2 r8:88:8Tr?:r4

? ?FF~O ~0gON~0JD0 K ~

Geometric Random Walk

Geometric Random Walk

65

55
50

60

45
55
40
50
35
45
40

30

50

100

150

200

25

250

Geometric Random Walk

50

100

150

200

250

Geometric Random Walk

65

80
75

60

70
65

55
60
55

50

50
45

50

100

150

200

45

250

Geometric Random Walk

50

100

150

200

250

GE, daily 12/17/99 to 12/15/00

55

60

50

55

price

45
50

40
45

35
30

50

100

150

200

250

40

50

100

^=

150

200

250

0? ? 8 8 Q Q? Q4?Qr`:Q8Qr r r8rFr
3 r88|8opo:Q
F?Qr:Q8|Qr r r8rD r : DQrD QS:Q 8oN":Q  r8:88: Fr
:r:8' r84Hr:
8o'o:Q

f=

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

Geometric Random Walk


3

2.5

0.5

2
Price

Log Price

Random Walk
1.5

1.5

0.5

0.5

1.5

200

400

600

800

1000

200

10

1.5

0.5

200

400

600

600

800

1000

Geometric Random Walk

2.5

Price

Log Price

Random Walk

400

800

1000

200

Random Walk

400

600

800

1000

Geometric Random Walk

2.5

12
10

Price

Log Price

8
1.5

1
4
0.5
0

200

400

600

800

1000

200

600

800

1000

O&8 S8o Q8[Q

0'? ` "QD8 Q Q? Q44Q88:Q Q8TDQQQ8Q


Q ?? Q8[Q

400

Kk

? ? OO[ 

RS

gOF

@

 F`'

*f vRvKfGRR(f*fRvvHvRCf}*fR*fR

 
- R
F
} j
> . &
>
(

L
S'
"
r O 1.  TF1'T1K8)' T +H'00'
1+r

. T?1S S
~1    K1 0  r :r  QrA 0 ST+A
? `' p
| ~+1 g?o rp ~H +
1 '
'0+ 1~1`+0~1  

]r L |' F901'T ]0 1+ +1

~ 10?Sg o1~+H(
rD0.
r'0
r10D
r 0+D
 0 r

10N0
~ +' '1 } ]r TJN~ 090  ~1
Q0' 40+L
vr

+t 0~ 0L 11S01 01'


|'1p~  1?J1]J0
H


$

p 1N1SD + . 01 Q0S1 '


'A  r+
r0 O F1 TF'1 00
o 

 1S11'0p+ 2| J00] 0


0+1.1+ + 

 .

=r

(

? | r~g 0+1S+] r1 g'1 4' S 1


A

>. D~
r  ]` ?ST.(O
r ?
) e 0?' A 1 1' K1 '
101 1`
r

0 1 '1]0 r
F'
)  0/
( 

/9

? + O r ']1] 01 01 r

>
r1 K 8O
r ?J'o1S+@
r
r.
r:0'
r

S+
r=
K

-\

@,


O1 r  ~ ~ ' r3+1S.'3~+ 
11 r00S r0
'
2` r1 Ko+ r



> . ?,~ 3 1`001/a+ @ ]>..('


 3s>.w.'0 ?o  +j . 0..s>.. .?o 


  . ?S #: j:.].. .]>

.

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

[g>.w.|' 1S L
rT  1 1+01'
~0+ +d0F^T `UU
"Z"p.]r
~1F' 1?
 .r
 . K 4(+14
~1+09 1~1O(r
S + 11S+0+r
O 1/' 
(
 +
>..?? 00+$~1~1.0<TH
rY T0 
rS -:141 '
+t1
T rQr ~ Q8QQ



G>.. B>[
qU
GT 
}Y
H
@

]
1 +`
r1
r W +' |0 1Ss::4:8rrW]

K+~ r1 r +D' ~00+`


O  1~
H r 0 r  8r[8r ]?r8 : Tr?Qr

Q:r

]r C9

}

.


'S
r S

0 +~ 0'  r1 r  1 + 0 r rSg+


r1  +

>


r1
r 1 +~? 000
rL
r 0~
r}o
0 +?0  1

O1 1|+
r|0
r' FH
rC 11
" o A0r
. 1~0 0 |
r

1 1r
|0 r

?] ~#r
1 +0 ?1 1K  ~Hr
 .? 4 1
1~' ~SEr

1++S1 12 010+'1S


1oK0r

04F00+J|~tr
0++  00'
r

?S+AH 0Fr
11 r
 S
]r

E>0~ 1 + K 0 .
r
r+
rL'

O1 ? 1'
 1 +

.
v

#

e

H'
'

01~ 1 + H O r011~  S ?b
1H 13J ~ r1  r +1S+ H 0
 r ~

T
r+
r^0~ 1  ?]+S~'1 
1 '0+1.~  F


r0T2 ?S1=. p
r
Jo1~+4S

` #
(00H
r|10
r ++S+0 
r S1 ('
 ~& 0 o 0
r
&g+r
p0 r
.'
Hm
?So.r
11 1 1S0+.`( A

? ?

k0 h

cOW

~~ 

uNE

]

TH
r0 | 1 ++1  ~4+
r.0 
rS^
r'
o r

0O r
5] | 1 ! ~tr
0 Hr

S S.r

0 0 r
 1pC 01 r
?
U HT 1 0A~tr
0++  1+ H 0 S++1 H +

 1 1~ ' 1 
 . 1&F.r
~ r
R'
)
  =>" +?S0o ++1 r

A+11
o11.
 0 S++1 ( + 2 ~D1~0 S++1
H?
 S+ 
U T 0.+ p1S1 40 +  r


S
 1 K0o ++1 H + . o+g?51 F+r

o`0o0 '0 r

~'1`0o ++1 ?( + O1 1


00 +1 (
 +  A+(r
0S1  1F
o? 0' `00r

+&p* +
H?
 S+ A1+S
~, ' 0  0jHT 1 01Dr
1+~'1
~
 0 1#DQLY 1p'1 1f'
1 <0 %
RS

v*RR}vvHRfRvRvRvfRR
]r



F' |' 0 r~ | 1 ?14+S r1

"y> Qo!O'K00+>O +


r| (o
r +  '

vY
r
 ' ' T.r
 q>" O~0S 0o0 ~1 T r

00S '1] 1 ' 0 1 F~
Trr`:Q8T ~ Trr`:Q8TK1
 ~1C 0 ' r

 r
+ r
F1]0 r
~1
p 1 +
 r
K

~ H
K  /% 1] .
r
r~T
~109 1 (r
e? r
1  0 1+'1~+0t
r
>
''+ r

'+Hr
'+r

 +r
5`w. ~1`09 og10T Hr

00r
1 +' + '

r0
w F00r
4K09 1 (r
+S r
+X09 (r
'S+r 1
STS

r8:oQT r?Qr_
U 0 S='
) '

 .
 001~  K>D
3  j0 ~0KK
 1 D
3
: $D
3 mD
3 _'S\ 1StT `D
3 r
0 /+r
0 r
'

  !"#$%'&( )%*,+-%&( ./0*"1* "1, "1&2"13

.w

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

. >;

 

0
O'0&1 2!Jf>901 H
r 4+S
r1 .
r?S
1S +0]1+L
vr

S+
d13r
r
0 3~ 09 SN  0 
+  JLr

1]1S~A+ + r

1 +F`.r
'+Lr
'Kr
(r
0+
4
1p0K10+|J ]1pr

/]
 H'
4
 +1`41 J'0  0 r
'2r
1 Hr

 'O00+131S0J' r
p+
"> O

r(r
0+1
S2 1' r . 1F~4'O] 00D H0
0 r10N

" > . D)'UgT100+0 0 #TrQr3:


]`QQ8Tr5::8:8TrQQrT8:8r'
r~.0 
rS
~1+'oHr
S  .. 1 11~
U 1 01N1 1r
0~+10+&J0 r
JT r?Q
 '1~0~1+?
: 0S(r
? T ~r
1
0 0 ~#U  ~  0 + #r
~
 ST

)' +.+1' 1S 01?T ~Y+


~1'0 + Er
051~0&1J 1~ +
 S Fr

~.0 r
S
-r
0 + U 1jr D+0~3Dr
~g0 r
~D1
0
 | ?1p 02r
p0 1022 1o+1

 03]
 09 1 (r
+ J'1Sp0 '
1011
 00'1o1J  ~(r
0 10 '
 01' r

 1 +
V  001'1F0 0B ~1O +A r


Y 0T
r#]
+ A =T r?Qr : 76r r)::8:8[r8rT8:y>.
?
V 1~ 'u 1 0  1J
  1J130 r
g+STJ'
]
Lr

A++  F

 ' S  ~b
>" ( + r
10 0+A 1S5^T r
g r
1
021 00 ' Sr

0 r
. 1 1r

0??D?11 :F~
 010K01'1  ]'
111
" + A~1T 'S+`10+ 1 0S'
+~(
 +Rr
1JJ0 1'1 ?S++00
.
 1 .'J~  r
S

hji

.p

?29 

'

'0

2:

~O 0+ O'12 r p p1+ r


T

a  21| 0
r?A00S 1~A'1
r'00e
.??.
v
r01
~C: 0| 14'14 1f
r y 1 T0
1D 1~  0 r `0 S 30S'
>~  1J D
0S 1 4
 +Lr
3 D
3 \ 1].
41f1_QT<3E;
Q : 1~ 1
~




(r

+0.1HK  0 1 O  +

~0]r

1 (r

~+0+2r
r
y ~` T+

 ~0 1  ++0 +(r
|00~`H +T

 ( 0 r
?~ ++r
+rD1 H 0r
.o0
4
11S

R<>=

y:

 

 0d 1S|1 H0 r/o0 c


11
 J1 T?1~ D'J1]+ ]
?T+4





CR(*}v(RA@ *RBCHD
?

E6r rFr8AGr]Hr8I?:"Q?' ' S@0 @'Y ?`0'


++~ r
r
g0 (r
2 " ~.0o1 +0+S 1g1 S

 +5+  A" r
1 |Lr
++  r
G 1'+ ('
+ F~ +!: 0|00+1 1`~>r
0++32  r
1 r

1 +F0  r

0 TJ 0+&: 01  r
1 r
1 +ST
YN ' S
" 0ST1 ~.?
 '  +L
vr
S+t 0 r
1r
0"
.
 .+S1' r
   01+L
vr
S+t 01#: ~1+

0 +SHp FL '1 1'r


11 r
? ? r
(K
r
 &'
+} o 01xr

0 ` .r
O1S r
~.'
 oK
 |Lr
 
Y K~>r
T. 1N]
N
 1p r
1 r
K +A(r
0~1N1!D
3
~1 1W
T + [   'ST S1'++N ~1 A '
F01|+r
 1.? ~1 So r
1H~]K +1
1 'r

.0~ r
40 r
-r
1DK?4 '=r 4~S++ 1
1`+00F 0 r

'1 r
+  f 2 r
 y'
1 /,  0 '
~r

00 ' ]2 r


 p* -
Q /, S '
+r
/' ( + 0

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

'

"


v

1opJ Np~  H ]| +c10 r


~
 0 +''1.Fr8]r 'KDS +0 r  T 
0+
'  21 0 ++ ~1] ++00' 1] ?1 |
 A1~ 2 SD0o r+31 A+ 2 A~T A0T0A A1
~ ] + r~  " + r +0?S+21 ~ S~
D' +O | 1S+S' r J O|  ?' r 01
'13 '10 01~1 + r + 0+
~ r0 01~1'|F ' r rT 1+ r rTo rJ0T r
.0T r  r+0++~1S1K&.O0++  F1
 0?F0++.~'T J1] K J


'
Rr L

'

(
69L

B9

.

d

.

2[

W9



 H

K"



"Z 

'



(
C

'
-
9
#

)'0 31 0+SOG90 1~+- &'.


v
r0T '
0H+0 B O1.
  0+  1
r+H 4 1*1
1BF
1ST.1 + "< H S1+  ]+1.1 + 0 r 0e '
Hr

1. ]+1b1  ~(r


? +S ?1''1 '0  0 r

`00-r

(r
~1O0A + '
vr
0}r
(r
S0?r
H'
? ]1S`J +?
 +S ?+(r
]r
11?0~ r

|'Fr

110
U 1N  r
1 r
1J1SDN

Y 1 J1+0 r
B 1 ]
r

0p1D S| r
S1d
  s ~1r
11 r
1J~
1S 0~Lr

`.r
 O}r
0+ST?01p~1 1
 ~1| 10
 ~A.r
1 o?ST 

R<)<

f*}*RR*vRL@ *RBCHD
.

(



~1]0 r1  0 S1 + r QQ[Q:Drr8 :~


 + r g0S r 00' 11D r
0 1+4+ r'F 00
 10 ~ ]0 r







Q10_ _U /TS.?L
rG  
r1
r 1 ++
4+ Lr

} `01~  1 +)'' +.


r S
r
+0~1`1f0
9 1 Hr
T~ 1. Kr
`1#r
(r
0+'1 ?+ r
L'
 ?Cr

~'1  g ~ 1O'1' ~ 


1Cr8!:"Q+T r?Qr
M
N

$&( O P
&(Q  $&(R"#**&SO,%&.RT"U+-"#$%V%WXQ%&(%;Y%&(*Z &["#*TO,#&.R,T"\"1]O%

 ^I&( "#*'*%#

"1R7 /_R,\/`"# $D&(> a%
$/`R"1 
%\ *Ub "#Q&(%Sc)"#*ed#3

>n

?29 ?

R<>j

/ h

i L k i

g ]F

~gf:~

iih

*lk!(vR}Lm R *RDonpB*}fv*>(DHqvrmsnut

Q. ~(
r .
v
r00 d1 F+
r&0
rG0L
r0 S T ~ ' ?
r

1+'+0&  '1  '0 " >..u0 0


T 0+ 00+10 0C>0 o0 1 000  
r0 30
r-0L
v'
0 ]T ~H0
~1]SF 1 1~ S1. A~0].C
69Lr

Hr
? 1] ?ST
Qb O( 69L
r10 00
r>0' 0
r K. `('
 
Q

 69L

(




r' S+0 rO   +S | 0 r
'0 0 r1 ` 1.1  Jr8H0  r0 1

(

9

J0J ]J0++ r1 '0 0


 ~1.J1] +F 1   



(

^:0 
r /01# Y)g

~ +~F?S|`+1

T 0+=r 20T SA 01~0 69L


r1 0
r2'


r1 H
rF D1S1S 1|01 1
r0 HT 2T(
r1('
  1|  oA1A0
rB
r 1+r 01 
r0 Sr0
r
r1 1
' 1~N] T~A1?.r

|  A1 1 o  0 r
F

 0SS+r
0 r
2~00S|1+  10 ` T40.S'
]1H
T 0}v +0 0 + .r
EQ '  T
+ 3'D D' ]1 T~S.r

r
0+
(
 + A ~1S1 ?1]1| Wr
14
g .vg

fW !xKzyy#{W vW
1A( +(
r0~~1A1+ H0
r
|i}~8})D}8D
w

40 1

H

H

(

(

1  + r0~O  1 0


00 r

D}5DS)})D}8D

.

1  .+S r0~  |


` 1| T?0  r0

D8F})D}8D

/'S 69Lr

(
r 
r1
r 1 +F'1? ?]
T+/'ST 9L
rS(
r 0~ 1 2 ?`'AF5
. ?](
 

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

g .vg v

W$tKDy1{W tW
~1.+S
r 2 LO'+(U 1 1V]~  0+2~t
r &S+
^ 0* T|O
 1GgYg
) O
 'S r |' +000 1 ' +1
p0 0+* 
 1f Y)
" '12} ? Q:Q4:Q 
 ~.]
V 1S !
Y r
0K~tr
0++] 1
++0S4(
  J'1B Yg
) FF 0~++0'
1 1

 O  K D0S r
| 69Lr
T?~1+ 169Lr
(r
1
.0   1 
 | o?.0 S W"  1 1 1*.
0 S    g>
+0F.
Hr
+
00
9 T.~1}r
&' &.r
1  141d ~g+ + r
2S+
01~r

 O> 1 9Lr
(r
3 ~+0 r
~ Tj0 Lr
0 1+?+(r

J S ' ?
 04!T -..
 1~
 1 DGw.. + 1~
~
  ' 10 0 1
Q 10++0+ r
. "Z 1SK2+S1 r
2r
++1

1 T'0 p 01J 4`+ r

oT8U Er
1+
~ 69Lr

Hr
+J1~K~  r
1 r
W 01~  1 +
 0 00 r

 % SK~1+ 11F1 ~=r   ? ?S1 9L'

rHr
S
Q 10oS 1  1g 0 ~+~[ rT1SJ'A

+](
 1 1 '1r
1++. ?1] T
w

F w ..O0S0.
r+0D
r@>O+rH~1 H H'
>]
 1 ~4+(r
OK  0 r
00 00K+1_>]
 1S 4#
e.. ~

.A

 

+1D1B0++ 00 `1F1 1F0 1


1J++>
 1 ~OLXz ? .A
7 YX  ~~  .r
~0 !

? v
 M v 7 X,
"Z 1SF+>.
 ~+0'03 ?J+ '1 01
0 + F+ '++1`1 ~

0-,(
r=r KY g0&00e g}TV-..Jav#
.~&>..?
!g
U *, (r
p+SdH +F ?SD
0+~Lr
j^"Z~ 1Do ' +~ K? ~Hr
D ? +~1
+ ' +* Y?
 1f Yg
)

 . .&( z *+- $"##WlQ#&("#&( $*UU $&( UT5#ll)"1*oDz3

 8 $8&( ! $*+ "#zQY " $ &(R


l##3

YC Y UU &( TH#l1#Z

p%Z"#*A

?29?~

AA[O` '`

hji

`~~~gFg~

O 0B,~A 1Y.
vV]1  ~~RV] 1A YN
r0Jt
r0
L
r'1
 10 r
 0'+1`1C Y
) 1?   S(r

1] ? +0~




W gS>]>. E> 69L


-
Y
CQ [?f~ & 1

U
S (

.w. . ].
]+
: 0 F'"
? LF
WS>.]> -> 9Lr
S1WO 0 jY "Z"S WTrQr~?8rTQ.
>]>]>]>?
WT rQr B
8r[Q  S F 1H 0 1  r
r
F 1
901 Hr
.? D11 H\SHT
[
1L
''J + o<r
' R+ + + 0T
) '  1D+~r
1L9L   +B 0 1 ] 1~.

11`y\SH
T
[ 
Q +]\ST d
[ : 0 r
1* W"Z2 .
vr
+C\ST [
 }K
 T("Z
~~++H1? oD0+1 1 r
1EO
 1?1 ]00'

r1 +SKd _r
11.
vr
+\ST [x oY('SO
 .
vr
01T
D)D}P)}D 
[ S 1A 0 K YI
) 1
00 `o0 0+0 
% 1 4~1 Jo  S  r

r01&x09 +0~S 2'0+4D`


+`1 9L'
1 Hr

~  T``0 r
+ T1 ' 4
? ' F' J ?  r
? F

r O 0 N 
~0 r
Tr
Qr 8r[Q 

R<R

&R*>fvf vRfv*R}(

cH*RvvR*favrmsn

.

9

(
C

S1 T 0 r r10+ r1 1p r r

  1S ?J+ '1

']'0` ? 01 r  O 0 

 r1 r r0 1 ? 01 r 1

.

}>..]r

.

F
H



.

_

9

69L
r(
r

#

~. 1

R<>

.

9

69L
r('

r g+ |1Sp 011+1


r

f*vv*}frf*f*}*v*

1'~ H
 +u J?S ^. J +0 +'T
] . 1OS1J1F?S "Z+ '1B.1S+ =
r00~+ '

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

w
>w
.w
..
w Q..
.Nw Q..

]


...

.w..


 >]>
 w ..
 w.]>
 w]>.
 w].v

 w].v

.

10 J1J J 1 2

A .A

"Z1f
r001~1`~ 1S1]' J. 4
A A  A
 . A8 

"ZE
r001~311S+~  101S1D' .K`

'0

A
? 7 ?  . A 7

#


 

Q1
r001~1
r4oK 1|D:?0S11'TD.S01
41 T

 
U

pX[

? A 7F

~1 r
r1100 r001~14
~1 '1  +'K1 r rJ1T 1
K0A K 11S+ r001~p D A 1 F1
0J 21.1 A. ] 2 g1 ~0+ 1|0+ 1 
~1+ r1 r0 r O1 ? 0 ] ] 
'1 rp1 H
0 :3~ 2 r001~3 O+0`T
?`+1 r 1
~1o1~ o r' r001~1` .10] r
100 r00
 ;  | +1 r100+ r001~

 H1 1 ? 0D  AL
X[
zp?~10






&

u>



&

"


&

t j

6





(
B

K

H


}

.

8"


 ...

B

@9L

? 7


9L

^
('

?29l?ON

? 70+'1 1Do0 p ~1]D +1 1DS0T


' ++Br

#r
1100+}
r001~' 
) S| 1' 3A p Rr
100r
001~14-,~U

' F pI .K
 01 ~0+?1 ?F'|.
vr
~1
.]   
: 0 

: ?>

X[

6

J
~1J+0J`1~ S1 0

"J0 T
r0 S
R<>

X[

? 7Q

X[

? e 7

:? w.

*}RDB

,~ 


 M ~
} '


 M ~
S>T

|0T r. 2 g + 2 

1+0|
0 

H0  


0 K ~O+40 | ~1K )]0ST~DV


S ~


Q


0

0



o0 1 J S ~ D 1~ ' ~

 O 1~Y' J~ 0SK1 1|0 1 00 J1~0


~1 r 10o~ r 00oD0 1 o 0 +0o0 11~1D~ +
01
1 ~T0F
0 r 2 r ~0   O'S+ '

1 0 r S1~ 4 151] r r `000T1J
1~ ' ~"
?S 1~ ' p~+0?S+1
r12 1
01
1 ~+  4 0 |  3] 0 r 
?S10 r 0T r r1 1 r0 r 0+ 01  r0 S1 T
A`~J '1o  D F
'J S  1J+ +o1
 1p1  N

S;

?b 7

jY

_V

EgY)_

t;
K




R<>

s|


L



? /7
| ~

 M  ~ ,

'
H'

-

8

v

 gY)

jQ  s




j)

9L

(

y

U

/'

/'

H
'

.'

RR R*H>

~ 1+L DS>...=2?r8K: 2Ar +D 6Q`rQrr8i:rQT68Qv\


U 5T 1 '

1 d T4
~ 1+g DS>..w. C r :r= Qr+|
  "rr8@O
Q ?8?`r QQr8
:"Q:Hf0
S++ '
1 1d 4

.

hji 
k ~g?F~O'8l[]m<n.o]mLp>n

También podría gustarte