4 WEDNESDAY
APRIL 15, 2009
Six-party pullout at direct shot at U.S.
From news reports
North Korea apparently was
serious in its threat to quit six-
nation nuclear disarmament
talks and the United States
may have to offer direct dia-
logue to woo it back, analysts
say.
The North Korean move, they
say, appears intended to pres-
sure the Obama administration
to start bilateral talks with
Pyongyang on a broad range of
issues, including missiles, denu-
clearization and establishment
of diplomatic relations.
Pyongyang, making good on
an earlier vow, announced it
would quit the talks and restart
its atomic weapons program af-
ter the U.N. Security Council
condemned its April 5 rocket
launch.
“It’s quite a serious situation,”
said Paik Hak-soon of the
Sejong Institute think-tank in
South Korea. “The North thinks
it has nothing to lose in this
stand-off and it will continue
building up its nuclear arsenal.”
Paik said that Pyongyang is
partly to blame for going ahead
with the launch and not giving
the Obama administration
more time to review its North
Korea policy.
“Washington, for its part,
should have sent a clear mes-
sage that it would change its
policy toward Pyongyang,” he
said, faulting it for seeking a
strong Security Council re-
sponse to the launch.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor
at Seoul’s Dongguk University,
said the North is “ratcheting up
the stakes” to win maximum
concessions from the United
States and the international
commmunity.
“Simply put, North Korea is
asking the U.S., ‘Will you leave
Little leverage left for N.K. sanctions
BEIJING (Reuters) — but only a weak effect on overall
Strengthened sanctions are un-
likely to dent North Korea’s
trade with benefactor China,
but the global slowdown is tak-
ing its own toll on the isolated
North, which said on Tuesday it
will abandon nuclear talks.
North Korea’s announcement
that it will abandon the “use-
less” six-party disarmament
talks and restart a nuclear
plant followed the U.N. Security
Council’s condemnation on
Monday of its rocket launch
nearly two weeks ago. The secu-
rity council demanded enforce-
ment of existing sanctions.
Lower commodity prices may
prove more painful to North
Korea than the tightened sanc-
tions, which will likely blacklist
certain firms known to deal in
military goods.
“Sanctions won’t have a big
effect, they won’t change their
actions,” said Shi Jinhong, a
professor of international rela-
tions at Renmin University in
Beijing. “There will be no im-
pact on trade with China, which
is mostly grains and basic mate-
rials ... Sanctions may have
some influence on luxury goods,
Why such soft sanctions? Is a smile the smartest sanction?
By Chris Williams
The slow and seemingly soft
response of the U.N. Security
Council to the North Korean
rocket launch attracted pre-
dictable criticism, aimed mainly
at China and Russia. But are
there other underlying reasons
why the U.N. opted for a soft ap-
proach to sanctions, and are
there other options?
The last time the U.N. de-
ployed significant sanctions
against a seemingly missile-
careless regime has been erased
from public memory by subse-
quent events. The period was
the 1990s, and the country Iraq.
Ten years of sanctions eventual-
ly drew condemnation from
UNICEF and others around the
world, because it was claimed
that they harmed innocent peo-
ple, not the regime they aimed
to depose. It was estimated that
the measures led to the death of
4,000-5,000 children each
month.
In 1998, a highly experienced
and respected U.N. humanitari-
an coordinator in Iraq, Denis
Halliday, resigned talking of the
“damage and futility which
strengthens the leadership and
further weakens the people”,
and claiming that the action
North Koreans look at flowers named after state founder Kim Il-sung during an exhibition to commemorate the late leader’s birthday in
Pyongyang on Monday.
us or negotiate with us?’” Kim
said. “From the North Korean
perspective, it needs to raise
tension as much as possible and
drive the situation to the brink
before it finally hits back to re-
verse the tide,” he said.
Depending on the response,
he said, it may take further ac-
tion.
However, he said the North
may accept dialogue if the
United States shows signs that
trade volume.”
The isolated country’s $2 bil-
lion annual trade with China,
equal to about 10 percent of the
North’s annual GDP, is its most
important economic relationship.
China repeatedly urged re-
straint as North Korea prepared
its rocket launch. But it was re-
luctant to take a harder stand
for fear of losing influence in
Pyongyang and due to worries
about the major political and
economic risks if North Korea
collapsed.
Trade between the two coun-
tries has slipped in recent
months, as a plunge in metals
prices closed one of North
Korea’s few channels of export
revenues. The value of trade be-
tween the two countries
dropped 3 percent in the first
two months of 2009.
North Korea profited from
strong prices for minerals and
ores over the last few years,
ramping up exports of zinc, lead
and iron ore to resource-hungry
China.
Most of those exports have
dropped again since last sum-
mer, in line with sharp decreas-
was contrary to the U.N.
Charter and Human Rights
Conventions. He believed that
not only were children harmed,
but sanctions also increased
family breakdown, divorce,
crime, prostitution and brain
drain. The then U.S. secretary
of state, Madeline Albright, was
not applauded for responding
that “we think the price is worth
it.”
The judgment of history is
that the justification for the Iraq
invasion and therefore, we tend
to overlook, also the sanctions,
was unsound. Politicians may
have forgotten this episode, but
U.N. staff probably have not. It
is unlikely that they would want
to get into this situation a sec-
ond time.
In 1996, Juan Somavia, now
director general of the ILO, had
already made the point more
formally at a Security Council
meeting.
“Most of the sanctioned coun-
tries are authoritarian regimes
that don’t give a damn about
what people think. The whole
notion of sanctions affecting
people in order to affect the
leadership is invalidated. So, we
must make a distinction be-
tween generalized sanctions
that affect the people more than
ANALYSIS & FEATURE
it will meet longstanding de-
mands such as diplomatic recog-
nition.
“North Korea may not come
back to six-party talks unless
the United States and the inter-
national community offer
greater incentives,” Kim said.
Ko Yu-hwan, a professor at
the same university, told
Yonhap News that the state-
ment was mainly directed at the
United States.
es in metals prices buffeted by
the global economic crisis.
The North’s mineral deposits
could be worth $2 trillion, ac-
cording to an estimate by the
South’s Korea Resources
Corporation. But dilapidated in-
frastructure and a broken pow-
er grid hinder mining and the
transport of minerals out of the
country.
The irregular pattern of
North Korea’s alumina imports
implies that its smelter only
runs in fits and starts. Other ore
exports are equally ragged, pos-
sibly indicating that North
Koreans are only digging the
easily accessible ores.
Chinese companies that have
tried to invest in North Korean
mines complain of constant
changes in regulations and re-
port that the North tries to tie
mining access to commitments
to build mills and other indus-
trial projects.
“China and North Korea are
friendly neighbors and we will
continue to develop friendly co-
operative relations with North
Korea,” Chinese foreign min-
istry spokeswoman Jiang Yu
said on Tuesday after the
the leadership and targeted
sanctions that affect the leader-
ship more than the people.
Sanctions must be efficient.
They must affect the conduct of
those who took the decisions
which led to condemnation by
the international community,
not the conduct of those who
had no part in it. Targeting
leadership is crucial, because
the leaders do not care about
the fate of their own people.”
But what are the options for
smart sanctions? Very few, it
seems, when a country has in-
sulated itself from most of the
global systems and institutions.
It might be hoped that North
Korean elites are following
events in Cambodia, and realiz-
ing that leadership accountabil-
ity is globalizing and that mis-
creants who thought that they
would evade accountability now
find themselves facing an inter-
national court decades after
their misdeeds. In fact, they
need look no further than the
history books in South Korea to
see photos of the humiliated for-
mer presidents Roh Tae-woo
and Chun Doo-hwan holding
hands in the dock as they are
sentenced on corruption and
treason charges, in 1996.
In her new book, “Educating
Ko said he expects talks be-
tween North Korea and the
United States at some point to
pave the way for resumption of
the six-way talks. “It is uncer-
tain which side will begin the
initiative.”
Professor Yang Moo-jin of the
University of North Korean
Studies said the comments are
some of the strongest he has
ever seen from Pyongyang.
“The statement says the
North’s withdrawal from the
six-party talks.
Diplomats’ expectations that
China might use trade to influ-
ence its prickly neighbor rose
when China cut off crude oil
shipments in September of 2006,
as North Korea prepared to test
a nuclear bomb. It had tested
ballistic missiles that July.
In fact, energy trade data
shows that China is reluctant to
apply trade pressure. Increased
oil products shipments offset
the brief cut in crude supplies in
2006.
“The imposition of these sanc-
tions (in 2006) has had no per-
ceptible effect on North Korea’s
trade with the country’s two
largest partners, China and
South Korea,” wrote Marcus
Noland, of the Washington-
based Peterson Institute for
International Economics.
Data since early 2006 show
that Chinese crude shipments
have in fact been overwhelming-
ly consistent, at 50,000 tons a
month.
But imports of liquefied petro-
leum gas (LPG), normally used
as a cooking fuel in Asia, have
plummeted since August 2007.
Against Extremism,” Lynn
Davies assesses the spectrum of
strategies, and highlights one
that we often overlook, “light-
ness of touch.” Humor has a
long history of addressing
despotism, and this is well-rec-
ognized. In the apartheid era of
South Africa political cartoons
became illegal, even if drawn by
children. In the Philippines,
Estrada’s downfall in 2001 was
precipitated by texting jokes
about him.
There seems to be something
intrinsically moral about politi-
cal humor. It is easy to get a
laugh at the expense of Hitler’s
moustache, as Charlie Chaplain
proved. But it would be hard to
get the same response about
Gandhi’s facial hair. Anthro-
pologists have often analyzed
how derision against those who
offend social norms has been an
effective soft sanction in most
cultures around the world. But
it must ridicule behavior that
can be changed, not personal
characteristics that cannot.
Of course, the efficacy of hu-
mor too seems limited in the
case of North Korea. Satire nor-
mally depends on amusing and
building solidarity among a
wronged population. But first
people need to hear and under-
Reuters-Yonhap News
North is now moving to actions.
It’s crucial for the United States,
its allies and China to react
wisely in order to control the sit-
uation.”
While the North is pressing
for direct negotiations with the
United States, the six-party dis-
armament talks are likely to
survive, according to Baek
Seung-joo of the Korea Institute
for Defense Analyses.
“North Korea is complaining
A Chinese paramilitary police officer stands outside the North
Korean Embassy in Beijing on Tuesday.
stand the joke, and that seems
unlikely.
There are websites with
North Korea jokes, such as
about.com. Last year the Daily
NK reported of Kim Jong-il
jokes circulating on Chinese
blogs. Of a painting of Adam
and Eve, it was asked: Are they
English, because the gentleman
is sharing his only apple with a
lady? Are they French because
they are walking around in the
nude? No, they are North
Korean because they have no
clothes and no food but think
they are living in paradise.
There is a small possibility
that political elites in North
Korea might sometimes see how
they are ridiculed by the outside
world, but their reaction to deri-
sion is likely to be anger rather
than self-reflection. If there
were any counter-movements
within these cadres, a joke
might help to fuel their cause,
but again the scope seems limit-
ed. A few Korean leaders might
feel that they would like to pre-
serve their dignity among the
neighboring elites who they oc-
casionally meet, and not be
Googlable figures of fun among
their families and descendants
in the future. They might re-
member that Korea has a very
about the unfavorable situation
with the six-party dialogue, not
the six-party dialogue itself,”
Baek said.
The North insists it put a
peaceful satellite into orbit
while the United States and its
allies saw a disguised missile
test in violation of a U.N. reso-
lution.
Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea
studies professor at Korea
University, said North Korea’s
brinkmanship was reminiscent
of its withdrawal from the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty, an international accord
meant to curb the spread of nu-
clear technology, in 1993. The
following year, Pyongyang
reached a bilateral deal with
Washington to receive two
light-water reactors in ex-
change for freezing its nuclear
activities.
The construction project,
which cost South Korea billions
of dollars, collapsed in late 2002
when Washington accused
Pyongyang of running a secret
uranium enrichment program.
The fresh nuclear standoff led to
the current six-party talks.
“North Korea’s view has been
that bilateral dialogue with the
United States is more effective
than the six-party talks in get-
ting a deal, and it now wants
another direct bargain,” Yoo
said.
Chosun Ilbo newspaper re-
ported that Korean diplomats
are grumbling at the low profile
of Stephen Bosworth, the U.S.
special envoy on North Korea,
and the Sejong Institute’s Paik
urged him to be more engaged.
“Bosworth is working like a
part-timer on the North Korean
issue,” he said, adding that the
envoy had been conspicuous by
his absence in the run-up to the
launch.
AP-Yonhap News
interesting tradition of leader-
ship accountability, through the
historians who had the power to
name a King after Death. Better
to be Sejong the Great, than
Kim the Clown.
But the role of humor in
building solidarity against
abuses of power now has a glob-
al aspect. This week my East
Asian students are asking,
“Who is the most famous
Japanese political leader?”
Answer, “President Fujimori.”
They are becoming restless
about the leadership created by
their political system. In Iran
the joke is that President
Ahmadinajad was planted there
by the CIA, to make George
Bush appear intelligent.
American Iranians tell a similar
story, but the other way around.
Paradoxical humor can poten-
tially be as destabilizing as obvi-
ous propaganda. The idea that
Kim Jong-il could be supported
by the CIA to give America an
excuse for a presence in East
Asia may seem farfetched. But
recall that apparently in the
1950s and 1960s the CIA covert-
ly funded radical artists, such as
Jackson Pollock and Mark
Rothko, to present the United
States as an open liberal society
in contrast to the Soviet Union.
Reactions from
six-party talks
participants
From news reports
Members of the six-party
talks yesterday reprimanded
Pyongyang for defying global
pressure and going ahead with
its rocket launch.
Japan on Tuesday said it
strongly urged North Korea to
return to the talks, hours after
the communist regime said it
would pull out of the process.
“We strongly urge North
Korea to return to the six-party
talks and fulfill resolution 1718,”
said Chief Cabinet Secretary
Takeo Kawamura after Pyong-
yang announced it would also
strengthen its nuclear deterrent
and reopen nuclear plants.
U.N. Security Council resolu-
tion 1718 — adopted in 2006 af-
ter Pyongyang’s missile and nu-
clear tests — demanded that
the isolated regime refrain from
further nuclear or ballistic mis-
sile tests.
Russia voiced “regret” Tuesday
over North Korea’s decision to
pull out of six-nation nuclear dis-
armament talks and urged the
Communist state to renew negoti-
ations, the foreign ministry said.
“Russia regrets that in re-
sponse to the lawful and bal-
anced reaction of the U.N.
Security Council, Pyongyang
has announced its withdrawal
from six-party negotiations and
the renewal of its nuclear pro-
gram,” the ministry said.
Russia — a permanent U.N.
Security Council member and
participant in the six-nation
talks along with China, Japan,
the United States and South
Korea — urged Pyongyang “to
return to the negotiating table.”
“We urge North Korea to ob-
serve the UN resolution ... and re-
turn to the negotiating table in in-
terests of the disarmament of the
Korean peninsula,” the statement
posted on ministry’s website said.
“For its part Russia is ready
to use every possible means to
promote this goal,” it added.
China called on North Korea
Tuesday to remain in six-nation
nuclear disarmament talks, af-
ter Pyongyang said it would
abandon the process in protest
at U.N. condemnation of its
rocket launch.
“The Chinese side hopes all
sides will ... continue to advance
and push forward the six-party
talks and the denuclearisation
of the Korean Peninsula,” for-
eign ministry spokeswoman
Jiang Yu told reporters.
China is host of the talks and
the North’s closest political ally,
but it backed a U.N. Security
Council statement released on
Monday condemning the April 5
rocket launch.
The statement also agreed to
tighten sanctions against North
Korea, which were mandated in
a U.N. resolution passed after
Pyongyang’s 2006 missile and
nuclear tests but not enforced
amid hopes of progress in denu-
clearisation.
North Korea responded
Tuesday by saying it would
restart its atomic weapons pro-
gram as well as abandoning the
six-nation talks, which began in
2003 but have been stalled since
late last year.
It would certainly be interest-
ing to see who would laugh
longest if we found out that
Kim’s Hollywood movies had re-
ally come in CIA wrapping pa-
per. Maybe humor is pointless
in the case of the North Korean
regime. But whoever has the
last laugh, the risk of North
Korean elites not getting the
joke seems less problematic
than the risk of North Korean
children not getting food.
Watching the video of Kim
Jong-il’s recent return to public
life at the Supreme People’s
Assembly reminds us that he
probably does not employ press
officers to warn of media man-
nerisms that might enhance the
cartoonist’s armory. He also re-
minded me of my favorite
Korean friend. The North
Korean leader looked shy and
bemused by the standing ova-
tion, and he started to clap back.
Perhaps he can be forgiven,
aged sixty-seven. When others
applaud him, my apparently
precocious little Korean friend
also looks shy and bemused and
claps back. And he is not yet
two.
Chris Williams is based at the
Center for International Edu-
cation and Research, University
of Birmingham, United
Kingdom. He can be reached at
chrisunula@yahoo.com — Ed.