WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.

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2-Apr-09 RAMBO
90% of the world GDP is represented at the G20. Once it is over, we then have to face the awful Employment report tomorrow.
The story behind the data is an important one. Indeed most of the remaining bear views from strategists are based on the idea that
whatever the improvement in the housing, retail sales, confidence, mortgage etc data, it should not be lasting long given the falling
employment sector which will lead to even worse economic background. Fine, this is a view, but this is one which in our opinion fully
under estimates the strength of the worldwide stimuli which aim at boosting jobs on a top priority focus.
Second bear possibility being that these incentives would reach the real economy too late. But too late than what, they will reach
the economy as a fact, and already does seen the improving data, which makes no longer any doubts in China as well as in the US when
looking at the falling mortgage rates which are supporting the housing sector at last. And when talking about inventories, yes they do
explain the latest poor output data, and the risk to see a lagging housing sector for a few months still, but they are heavily reduced so that
the manufacturing sector will get a big boost as soon as things are getting stable, which might already be the case (durable orders
rebound). As to the housing oversupply, time will be passing by, which the market understands, and the 9 month equivalent inventories
are better than the 11 months top seen in November, especially as the historically and artificially maintained low long term yields
represent a new opportunity for households to become owners.
Again, yesterday data were promising. The continued improvement in the US ISM manufacturing index, modest as it is, will fuel
speculation that a recovery could, “somewhat miraculously” according to bear guys, already be underway. The index climbed to a 4-
month high of 36.3 in March, from 35.8. Even more encouragingly, this latest increase was driven principally by a big rebound in the new
orders index to a 7-month high of 41.2, from 33.1. The new orders index has traditionally been the most forward-looking element of the
survey. Some of the other data released also falls into what our same bears call " from catastrophic now just terrible" category.
Construction spending fell by a more modest 0.9% m/m in February, compared with 3.5% the month before. However, they suspect the
abnormally warm weather to be a factor here, obviously... Similarly, the pending home sale index rebounded by 2.1% m/m in February,
although that rebound only partially reversed the 7.7% slump in January, of course... Fact, once again, is that things are improving,
making the latest rally understandable and not such a bear one, as timing from the recovery should logically be played by fundamental
investors as there are not much place to go in term of investments, and an economic upturn is worth playing as this crisis has nothing to
do with the so called and feared Great Depression one, even if it would have been a painful and severe one.
The volume was slightly higher than in the last two days, and same as in Asian it is nice to see this first quarter trading day
ending in the green, which is another positive sign that the selling flow from hedge fund redemption is much lighter, and bound to be
over at the end of Q2. It mostly means that fundamental institution might be more keen in investing thanks to some brighter macro
background, more listening to the latest evidence than most bank’s strategists. By the way the housing sector might be supported too, in
the US, UK and Europe by low long term yields which are boosting investors’ appetite, so scared of financial products thanks to Madoff.
Back to basics, real estate…
Today’s London G20 summit is in danger of over-promising and under-delivering. The chances of an additional global fiscal
stimulus look remote and there is no sign of agreement on the best ways to support and reform the financial system. However, it is still
worth watching for any initiatives to restore the flow of trade finance and kick-start global trade. The focus ahead of this meeting had been
on the case for a coordinated global fiscal stimulus. However, several European countries, notably Germany and Spain, have already
reiterated their unwillingness to commit more money. They believe that additional stimulus is unaffordable and might simply create
another unsustainable boom, especially in the absence of further reform of the financial architecture and the correction of economic
imbalances. This might at least help to ease some of the worries about issuance hanging over government bond markets.
There does not seem to be a lot of agreement on the best ways to reform the global financial system. The risk here is that the
politicians are diverted by a search for scapegoats, resulting in all sorts of populist measures that are either irrelevant to the current crisis
or actually counter-productive. Examples of the former would include tighter regulation of hedge funds and crackdowns on tax havens,
while the latter could mean bans on short-selling and excessive regulation of bankers’ pay
Nonetheless, the G20 meeting may not be a complete write-off. One area that is particularly appropriate for a global forum would be
measures to kick-start world trade. The global recession means that world trade can be expected to contract by around 10% this year.
The prime suspect is a temporary shortage of trade finance – another casualty of the credit crunch. A package of measures to help
restore the flow of trade finance might therefore result in a partial recovery in world trade, even before the global economy itself picks up.
Needless to say, this would be of particular benefit to major exporters such as Germany, China, Japan, as well as emerging economies.
The Nikkei (up 4%) welcomed the recent approval from the Japanese government of a tax redemption for dividends paid by
overseas units of Japanese firms, which analysts expect to be a boost for major firms as well as provide a support to the nation’s currency
We all know the Employment report should as predicted be awful tomorrow, and investors are gradually getting confident that this
will not last for to long, and the employment should improve in the US within a few month time. The G20 news should keep the market
steady, as not much bad should come out of it such as the market was fearing earlier this week
WTI €/$ $/¥ 10 yr US 10 yr Euro Basic Energy Financ Health Tech Tel Indus Utilities SOX S&P NAS DOW Close

Last 49,0 1,3264 98,75 2,67 2,99 4,00 1,95 1,97 -0,35 2,40 3,41 1,38 0,26 1,28 1,66 1,51 2,01 US
Perf 1d % 1,04 0,11 -0,23 1,98 bp 0 bp 1,66 0,77 1,58 -1,59 1,43 2,03 0,54 -0,22 -0,36 0,64 0,61 0,80 Europe
ECONOMIC DATA with impact
G20 and its possible announcements all day
ECB meeting (12h45 UK time) / should cut rates from 1.5% to 1% / Press conference 13h30 UK time / the key issue is what
indications the Bank will give that it is prepared to follow the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England into bolder unconventional policies
such as asset purchases to support the euro-zone economy as part of an explicit policy of quantitative easing (QE). While the ECB looks
set to extend the maturity of some of its bank lending this month, it is quite not ready yet to buy assets outright
Jobless Claims (12h30 gmt) expected 650k from previous 652k / minor as Employment report focus tomorrow
Factory Orders (14h gmt) expected +1.4% from previous –1.9% / minor
POSITIVE IMPACTS
DEUTSCHE BANK ’s CEO said DBK had solid results in March and does not need any additional capital (FT)
FIAT : Italy March new car sales +6.1% yoy (Market +0.24% yoy) / Market share 32.62%
CONTINENTAL : Schaeffler has won time from its banks to come up with a restructuring plan = The bridge liquidity of around €500 m is
expected to be finalized in the next few days, and the financing will mature in 6 months (Handelsblatt)
K+S bought Morton Salt from Dow Chemical for US$1.675bn in cash / Regulatory approval is still needed for the deal
PORSCHE expects an around 20% increase in sales in India in 2009, although it anticipates a drop in global sales (Indian press)
TOTAL sold a 10% stake in its Northern Lights oil sands project to its Chinese partner Sinopec
ADECCO said it has appointed Patrick de Maesneire as CEO, to replace Dieter Scheiff, who will leave the company later this year
 WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

2-Apr-09 RAMBO
MARCH U.S. CAR SALES –35% : HYUNDAI -1% / KIA -3.4% / VOLKSWAGEN -16.5% (Audi -16.2%) / BMW -19.8% / SUZUKI -21%
MERCEDES (Daimler) -22% / PORSCHE -26.3% / VOLVO -28.6% / MAZDA -30.6% / HONDA -33.7%
NEGATIVE IMPACTS
THALES’ aeronautic unit would faces losses of €300m linked to flight & security systems + would have generated losses of €500m in its
multimedia division… (La Tribune) / Thales denied.
VODAFONE & TELEFONICA are both interested in buying German Internet service provider HanseNet (Daily Tel.) / HanseNet has more
than 2.3 m customers and is valued at about €1.1bn / It has been put up for sale TLIT, which is selling non-core assets to reduce its debt
DEUTSCHE BOERSE said that in March, €100.9bn were turned over on Xetra and on the floor at Boerse Frankfurt (-48% yoy) / It added
that said voting rights held by TCI fell below 15% to 10.3% by March 31 and voting rights held by Atticus fell to 2.1%
UBS : The U.S. Justice Department has opened about 100 criminal investigations into wealthy American clients of UBS (NY Times)
COMMERZBANK (Minor) will ask shareholders for approval to issue new stock without subscription rights as part of a plan by the
German Govt to take a 25% stake in the bank (Annual General meeting scheduled May 15)
ERSTE GROUP : Moody's has downgraded the strength rating to C- from C
MARCH US CAR SALES -35% : NISSAN -35.2% / TOYOTA -36.6% / CHRYSLER-37% / GM -42.5% / MITSUBISHI-55.3% / SAAB-57%

RESULTS DIVIDENDS EVENTS

Today RIM / Monsanto / Micron Tech / Bombardier Volvo (SEK 2.00) / Telia Sonera (SEK 1.80) / Nordea Bank AGM / NYSE Euronext AGM
Acerinox ( €0.10) / Nordea Bank ( €0.20) / Svenska Neste Oil AGM / Merck KGaA AGM / TIM AGM / MAN AG
Friday Givaudan sales
Cellulosa AB (SEK 3.50) AGM
Vallourec to discuss dividend / Telecom Italia EGM / HSBC end
Monday
of Rights Issue
Tuesday Lukoil / Alcoa (AMC) / BB&B Skanska (SEK 5.25) / Zurich Fi (CHF 11.00)
Fed to study the end of short selling forbiden (return of the
BG Group (GBp 7,277778) / Fortum (€1.00) /
''uptick rule") / Intel Developper Forum / Sulzer / Belgacom
Wednesday Constellation Brands Prudential (GBp 14,34444) / Sampo (€0.50) / Unibail-
AGM / Schlumberger AGM / United Technologies AGM /
Rodamco (€1.40)
Daimler AGM (08.00 GMT) / Telecom Italia AGM
TRADING IDEAS
Buy the dollar to play US recovery still
Buy a house to take opportunity of artificially low long term yields and lowering mortgage rates
Buy equity indices, with a strong confirmation whenever the gap on the Eurostoxx is closed and passed (2176/2193 on the cash index)

BUY RENAULT to play Nissan possible market shares gain in the US

BUY BAYER / ROCHE / MUNICH RE / L OREAL / EON / LAFARGE on reversal Head & Shoulder
BUY FTE / PHILIPS / ACCOR / AIR FRANCE on double bottom possibility
BUY BBVA / SANTANDER / BNP / AXA to play gap closure above soon

BUY AT&T / SELL VERIZON // BUY FTE / SELL DTE // BUY RIMM / SELL APPLE // BUY PFIZER / SELL SCHERING // BUY BNP / SELL DBK
BROKER METEOROLOGY

GAS NATURAL...................... RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL ........................................................................................... BY UBS

TELIASONERA ....................RESUMED AT UNDERPERFORM ....................................................................... BY MORGAN STANLEY

SWISS LIFE..........................CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY ................................................................................................ BY CITIGROUP
LAFARGE.............................PRICE TARGET CUT ..........................BY UBS (TO 35 FROM 39) & BY JP MORGAN (TO 46 FROM 73)

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

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2-Apr-09 RAMBO
CHART OF THE DAY
ADP Employment Change survey and continuous claims in the United-States
since 2001

400 600 0

550 0
200
500 0
0
450 0

-200 400 0

350 0
-400
300 0
-600
250 0

-800 200 0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Emploi dans le secteur privé, ADP survey (000's, monthly)

Nombre de chômeurs indemnisés, continuous claims (000's monthly)

Source : Bloomberg

American companies cut an estimated 742 000 workers in March as per the ADP private report and continuing claims reached
5 560 000 a record high for both data, confirming the sharp deterioration of the employment market in the United-States.

ECONOMIC DATA
Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous
0.50 GMT Japan Foreign buying Japan bonds March 27 yen 511,9 billion
7.00 GMT United Kingdom Nat'wide house prices March -1,5%,-18,1% YoY -1,8%,-17,6% YoY
7.45 GMT France Producer prices February -0,4%,-3,5%YoY -2,0%,-2,7% YoY
9.30 GMT United Kingdom Group of 20 Summit take place in London
9.30 GMT United Kingdom PMI construction March 27,8 27,8
12.45 GMT Euro area ECB announces interest rates April 2 1,00% 1,00 % 1,50%
13.30 GMT United-States Initial jobless claims March 28 650 000 652 000
13.30 GMT United-States Continuing claims March 21 5 580 000 5 560 000
15.00 GMT United-States Factory orders February +3,0% 1,4% -1,9%

Inde x e s P rice % 5 D a ys Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7761,6 0,17% - 11,56% EUR/USD 1,3268 -1,90% -5,02%
S&P 500 811,1 - 0,30% - 10,20% EUR/JPY 130,99 1,87% 3,33%
Nas daq 1551,6 1,49% - 1,61% USD/JPY 98,73 -0,07% 8,23%
CA C 40 2839,6 - 1,86% - 11,76% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DA X 4131,1 - 2,18% - 14,12% Brent $/b 49,4 -5,45% 18,32%
Eur os tox x 50 2097,6 - 2,34% - 14,30% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 179,3 0,32% - 9,63% Gold $/oz 927,5 -0,63% 5,23%
FTSE 100 3955,6 1,43% - 10,79% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8681,9 - 0,66% - 2,01% Central Banks* 0,25 1,50 0,10
Shanghai Comp 2444,1 5,09% 34,23% Overnight 0,20 0,85 0,10
Sens ex ( India) 10304,9 2,42% 6,82% 3 Months 0,20 0,69 0,23
MICEX ( Rus s ia) 787,2 - 7,53% 27,07% 10 Y ears** 2,68 2,99 1,38
Bov es pa ( Bras il) 41976,3 0,42% 11,79% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Ref i
** Euro: German Bund rate So urc e : B lo o m berg
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2-Apr-09 RAMBO
ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW
Watch in the United-States the initial jobless claims and the continuing claims due at 13.30 GMT expected to increase as in addition
to the gloomy economic outlook, companies are in a fear state of mind generating an “over lay off attitude”. Watch as well the factory
orders due at 15.00 GMT expected to increase significantly led by the drop of interest rates and by the recent encouraging economic
data like the durable goods or the retail sales.

Watch in the euro area the final release of the European central Bank announces interest rate at 12.45 GMT. The ECB should cut its
leading rate of 50 bp to reach 1% but will more likely not go any further in the future./JB

ECONOMY

UNITED-STATES: JOBS CUT INCREASED TO AN HISTORICAL HIGH IN MARCH ACCORDING TO THE ADP SURVEY.
American companies cut an estimated 742 000 workers in March (forecast 663 000) as released by the ADP Employer Services (a
private report based on payroll) and job cut rise 181% from a year ago as announced by the U.S. employers Challenger index. These
data confirmed the sharp deterioration of the employment market as the global economic downturn is cutting demand for American
goods abroad and as the credit crunch is humping domestic demand. As a matter of fact companies are forced to cut jobs but as they
is a fear state of mind we can say that they are over laying off . We will have a global picture of the employment market next Friday
with the release of the employment report.

UNITED-STATES: ISM MANUFACTURING SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN MARCH

In constant drop since August 2008 and after reaching an historical low in December at 32.9 the ISM manufacturing slightly increase
in January at 35.6 to remain stable at this level in February. Despite the rebound of the barrel’s price, the drop of the interest rate, the
Obama revival plan and the increase of the durable goods in February had a positive impact on the ISM which slightly rose to 36.3 in
March (forecast 36.0). Nevertheless this index remained widely under the level of 50 showing that the contraction of the industrial
activity is not over.

UNITED- STATES : CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DROPPED LESS THAN EXPECTED AND PENDING HOME SALES ROSE IN FEBRUARY
After dropping of 3.5% in January, construction spending in the United-States declined at a slower pace in February of 0.9% ( forecast
- 1.9%). Meanwhile pending home sales rose from -7.7% to 2.1% (forecast 0.0%). Following the recent improvements in the real
estate sector as the rise of the housing start(22.2%) and of the building permit (3.0%) in February the construction spending increase
is showing that the first signs of the rebound are here. The goods new is that these improvements happened even before the revival
plan impacted the economy.

EURO ZONE : PMI MANUFACTURING CONTRACTED MORE THAN FORECAST IN MARCH

Europe’s manufacturing activity measured by the PMI index contracted from 34.0 in February to 33.9 in March (forecast 34.0) If we
quickly look to the breakdown German PMI manufacturing remained at 34.4 its last month level and French PMI slightly improved
from 36.3 to 36.5. Globally we can say that this gauge of manufacturing activity remained very low as a reading below 50 indicates
contraction of the activity. To put these figures in perspective it is important to say that industry account for 20% of the GDP in the
Euro area, 24% in Germany, 17% in France and to make a comparison 13% in the United - States. As recession is deepening in the
Euro area as showed by the rise of the unemployment rate at 8.5% in February, the PMI manufacturing should remained weak till the
second half of the year and should recover by the end of 2009./JB
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2-Apr-09 RAMBO
VIXindex: impliedvolatility ontheS&P 500 $Libor -3-Month(InterbankRate)
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009 02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

UnitedStates : 10-year Treasury yield 10-year Treasury spreadUSA-Eurozone

5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009 02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Oil : Brent ($/b) Forex: Eurovs Dollar (EUR/USD)

150 1,65
140
1,6
130
120
1,55

110 1,5
100
1,45
90
80
1,4

70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009 02/04/2007 02/10/2007 02/04/2008 02/10/2008 02/04/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg