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No overheating pressure
Output gap
8.0%
17.5%
Blanchard Quah with 2 factors Blanchard Quah with 2 factors, forecast Blanchard Quah with 4 factors Band pass filter Hodrick Prescott filter Kalman Filter
6.0%
15%
4.0%
10.2% 10% 8.9% 6.4% 5% 12.3%
0%
-4.0%
-1.3% -5% Agriculture Services -10% GDP Industry Net taxes on products
Gap is neutral
-6.0%
Forecasts
-8.0%
2011Q1
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
Terms of trade (right scale) Export price index Import price index
2.5
100% 80%
2.0
60%
2013/02: 1.432
1.5
40% 20%
1.0
0% -20% -40%
0.0
-60%
2001/01 09 05 2003/01 09 05 2005/01 09 05 2007/01 09 05 2009/01 09 05 2011/01 09 05 2013/01
Source: Bank of Mongolia
3
2500 Capital and financial account 2000 1500 Current account Overall BOP
1123
Million $US
7 6 5 4 1,000 500 0 3 2 1 0
-225
Months
4
Global FDI inflows declined by 18% in 2012 (UNCTAC). Total Chinese outward investment in 2012 reached $79.7B, grew by 6.9%, but Chinese outward investment to developing and emerging countries in 2012 declined by 49.7% to $22.6B.
5
Recent developments
Chinese leadership change is done Less uncertainty Amendment to the Strategic foreign investment law (Parliament floor) - Applicable only for foreign state-owned companies - Not applicable to private foreign companies - No benchmark level on investments for approval - Private & small-scale investments are expected to be encouraged Overall Macroeconomic Stability and Confidence - Monetary policy has been more coherent and proactive Mongolia needs a long-term, stable environment for investments Elbegdorj Tsakhia, President of Mongolia
Source: Official speech for Opening the Spring Session of the Parliament
,
6
Million USD
Stability since the last crisis (Q4 2008 Q1 2009) Daily average exchange rate volatility: only 0.08% in 2012 BOM: Fully committed to flexible exchange rate Outlook: More FX net inflows and stable FX market
2008/01 03 05 07 09 11 2009/01 03 05 07 09 11 2010/01 03 05 07 09 11 2011/01 03 05 07 09 11 2012/01 03 05 07 09 11 2013/01
2,000
3,000
Money supply
7,238
16%
2008-01 2008-03 2008-05 2008-07 2008-09 2008-11 2009-01 2009-03 2009-05 2009-07 2009-09 2009-11 2010-01 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2010-11 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-11 2013-01
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Source: Bank of Mongolia
10
-10%
8,000
12,215 60% 50%
12000
7,000 6,000
10000 39% 8000 30% 6000 20% 4000 10% 2000 0% -10%
2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01
40%
6% 5% 4% 3% 1.8% 2%
11
Macroeconomic Stability
Inflation targets: 8% end-2013, 57% for 2014-2015 Flexible exchange rate Central bank independence, openness and transparency Financial sector soundness Risk-based supervision Legal environment on collateral assets
Financial Stability
Monetary policy
Deposit insurance system Payments system Financial service accessibility and inclusiveness Securities Law
12
Low inflation
MPC decisions from 2013: Jan: Feb: Apr: Cut the policy interest rate by 0.75 pp Interest rate corridor Cut the policy interest rate by 1.00 pp
Source: NSO, Bank of Mongolia
13
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
3.0
2.5
2.5 2.2
2.0
1.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.0 OCT 0.2 NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
14
-20%
0.8
0.8
Macroeconomic policy
Fiscal policy Countercyclical and disciplined Fiscal Stability Law: Budget rules and Stabilization fund Public investments to abolish supply shocks Targeted social welfare program Monetary policy Countercyclical and proactive Low and stable inflation (from double digit to 6% inflation) Macro stability and sustainable growth Financial stability Flexible exchange rate policy Supply shock elimination program with the Govt. Financial infrastructure and institutional development Legal environment
,
15
Macroeconomic policy
Economic policy Overall economic competitiveness Essential infrastructure investments and development Export promotion: EXIM Industrial clusters: Value-added products Light industry: Ecological food products, cashmere, wool, leather etc. Financial market development: Pension fund reform, Wealth fund, Government bond market, Mortgage financing scheme, Legal environment Increase nationwide savings and investments
16
BANK OF MONGOLIA