MEMORANDUM To:AllInterestedParties From:JakeMengesandKevinTschirhart RE:JoeLhotasPathtoVictory Date:April29,2013

Introduction
RecentpublicpollingontheraceforNewYorkCityMayorindicatesthecircumstancesareideal forJoeLhotatobecomethenextMayor.Thecurrentfrontrunner,ChristineQuinn,continuesto seeherpopularityplummet.Meanwhile,threecandidatesarelikelytosplittheDemocraticvote inNovember.Moreover,LhotaispollingbetterthanMayorMichaelBloombergdidatthispointof thecampaignin2001. Finally,themostrecentpublicpolls(MaristApril17&QuinnipiacApril19),donotevenbother testingGeorgeMcDonaldorJohnCatsimatidis,anindicationtheyhaveonlyminimalsupport.

QuinnsQuickDecline
TheattacksfromQuinnsDemocraticopponentshavedrasticallyhurtherpollnumbers.She haslost7pointsinjusttwomonths.InFebruary2013,37%ofDemocraticvoterssupported Quinn.Today,aftertwomonthsofrelentlessattacks,only30%ofDemocraticvotersback Quinn,andjust26%supportQuinnwithformerRep.AnthonyWeinerintherace.

*denoteswhenformerRep.AnthonyWeinerisincludedinthepoll
(Source:November21,January16,&February27Quinnipiac PollsandFebruary14&April16MaristPolls)

TheChaoticDemocraticRace
QuinnstillleadstheracefortheDemocraticnomination.However,ifWeinerweretoenterthe race,hewouldimmediatelygarner15%oftheprimaryvoteandthrowtheraceintochaos.The Democraticprimarywouldlikelysplitalongreligious,ethnicandraciallinescreatingadivisive anduglyprimarycampaignontheDemocraticside.

QuinnremainstheDemocraticfrontrunner.However,ifshewinstheDemocraticnomination, shewillemergefromtheprimaryaseverelyweakenedcandidate.Ultimately,lessthan50%of DemocratswillsupportherintheprimaryandNewYorkDemocratswillfindthemselves deeplydividedoverhercandidacy.

WeinersRedemption?
ThoughWeinerspublicimagehasimprovedfollowinghisTwittertransgressions,NewYorkers remainunwillingtogivehimanotherchancetoholdpublicoffice.Only40%ofNewYorkCity voterswouldconsidervotingforhim,whileanastounding52%wouldnotevenconsider votingforWeiner.Acandidatewithsuchlimitationscannotwin.Weinermayshakeupthe DemocraticPrimary,buthewillnotbeNewYorksnextMayor.

AFourWayRace
ItremainslikelyNewYorkCitywillseeafourwayraceforMayorinNovember.FormerBronx

BoroughPresidentAdolfoCarrionhasassuredtheIndependencePartyhewillremaininthe race.Meanwhile,theWorkingFamiliesPartyappearsreadytoendorseBilldeBlasio.With Lhota,thiswouldresultinfourwellknowncandidatesrunningforMayor. Quinn,deBlasioandCarrionwouldsplittheDemocraticvote,whileLhotawouldwinRepublican andReaganDemocratvotes.ThesearetheperfectcircumstancesforLhotatobecome NewYorksnextMayor.

HistoricalComparison
LhotapollsbetterthanBloombergdidatthesamepointofthecampaign12yearsago.In May2001,BloombergtrailedPublicAdvocateMarkGreen6219.Lhota,meanwhile,trailsQuinn 5119.NewYorkCityhastheproclivitytoelectRepublicans.Rightnow,Lhotaisunknownto voters.Asthecampaigncontinues,voterswillgettoknowLhota,hisexperienceandvision.As thathappens,hisnumberswillincreasesubstantially.

Conclusion
ThechaosoftheDemocraticPrimary,Quinnsplummetingpollnumbers,thelikelihoodofa fourwayraceinNovember,andthefactthatLhotaspollnumbersarebetterthanBloombergs were12yearsagocreatetheperfectconditionsforJoeLhotatobecomeNewYorkCitysnext Mayor.