Measurement of National Power: Definitions, Functions, Measurement

Measurement of National Power:
Definitions, Functions, Measurement (Paperback)

Email:h-zarghani@um.ac.ir

Paperback: 120 pages
Publisher: LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing (November 17, 2010)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 3843371911
ISBN-13: 978-3843371919

For my mother and father,

who would have liked to have seen this day so much, and for my wife.

I also dedicate this book to:
my Dear Professor, Dr. Mohammad Reza Hafeznia

V
Contents:

List of Tables.. IV
List of Figures. V
List of Maps. V
Preface.. VI
Chapter One
National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions 1
Chapter Two
A Historical Approach at power-creating factors 16
Chapter Three
Sources and Factors of national power 27
Chapter Four
Approaches to Measuring of national power. 48
Chapter Five
Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation. 74
Chapter Six
Measuring National Power of countries. 81
Conclusion.. 101
Refrences 102

V
Illustrations

Tables:
Table 1. Capability of the players 14
Table2: Different approaches toward hegemony. 17
Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony. 18
Table 4: The quality factors and variables of national power. 41
Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power 45
Table6 : Single Variable Approaches to Evaluating National Power.. 55
Table 7:Ranking state power 60
Table 8: Number and Type of Variables Used in Conceptual Integrated Models 65
Table 9 : Simple Lineal Model to Measuring National Power 80
Table 10: variables of Scientific and Technological factor 82
Table 11:Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor. 83
Table 12: variables of Economical factor.. 84
Table 13 :Top ten powers in the Economical factor 84
Table 14: variables of Social factor.. 85
Table 15:Top ten powers in the Social factor. 86
Table 16: variables of Territorial factor 87
Table 17:Top ten powers in the Territorial factor.. 87
Table 18: variables of Cultural factor... 88
Table 19:Top ten powers in the Cultural factor.. 89
Table 20: variables of the Political factor. 90
Table 21:Top ten powers in the Political factor.. 90
Table 22: variables of the Trans-National factor.. 92
Table 23:Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor.. 92
Table 24: variables of the Astro-space factor.. 93
Table 25:Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor... 94
Table 26: variables of the Military factor 95
Table 27:Top ten powers in the Military factor 95

Figures:
Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power .. 8
Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy. 11
Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and
Domain. 12
Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players. 20
Figure 5: Leading Sectors, Underlying Hegemonic Control in History 26
Figure 6: Repetition of the national power variables in 28 variant theories. 40
Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power 45
Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power. 48
Figure 9: A Revised View of National Power 64
Figure 10 : Model with nine factors of national power.. 69
Figure 11 : Top ten powers in the all factors (National Power).. 97
Figure 12 :Global Geopolitical structure. 99

Maps :
Map 1 : Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor.. 83
Map 2: Top ten powers in the Economical factor... 85
Map 3: Top ten powers in the Social factor... 86
Map 4: Top ten powers in the Territorial factor 88
Map 5: Top ten powers in the Cultural factor. 89
Map 6: Top ten powers in the the Political factor. 91
Map 7: Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor.. 93
Map 8: Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor.. 94
Map 9: Top ten powers in the Military factor. 96
Map 10:The first ten global power. 98

Preface:

Evaluating and measuring countries' national power to determine the country's status in the
Global Geo-political System and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the
main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international
relations. From this aspect, many specialists attempted many efforts to evaluate national
power by means of creating methods and single variable and multi-variable models,
whereas all of them have ranked many countries from a multi-variable or limited aspect but
it has never reflected the countries extensive and complete power. In this research, based on
the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is
presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models based on
working method, number and integration of indexes and variables affecting national power.
Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (in the form of the nine factors include:
Economical, Political, Military, Transnational, Astro-space ,Territorial, Social, Scientific
and technological and Cultural), paying attention to the usage of various variants, variety in
the form of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variants to
the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and
referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables
affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure are some
the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones. This book has seven
chapter that includes:
Chapter One: National Power, Definitions, Notions, Functions
Chapter Two: A Historical Approach at power-creating factors
Chapter Three, Sources and Factors of national power
Chapter Four: Approaches to Measuring of national power
Chapter Five: Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation
Chapter Six: Measuring National Power of countries

Chapter One:

National Power: Definitions, Notions, Functions

The concept of power is the center of all the analyses in the political world and many
scholars such as Morgentau consider power the foundation of international policies and are
of the conviction that all policies are, in fact, attempts to gain power.
1
Power and its
presence in the political world is so important that some people like Wolves compare it to
the role of money in economic relations and believe that power does the same thing in the
international world that money does in the international economy.
2
Others regard power as a
sun in the solar system and state that all manifestations and aspects of foreign policy and
international relations between the countries turn around power. This is because countries
are always trying to gain power and power is vital for their survival. In other words, all
countries fight for gaining power, maintaining power, or displaying power.
3
On this basis,
one important issue in international relations is the power of political units particularly that

1-Divid. Jablonsky, National Power, parameters,27 ( spring 1997)p. 34
2-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan publication, 2003,p.169
3 -Abdolrahman Alam. Principles of political science, Tehran, Nee publication, 1999 .p. 188

of countries which is referred to as national power. In fact, like the notion of power,
different viewpoints exist about definitions, examples, and component of national power.

Definition and concept of national power:
National power, as a geopolitical concept, reflects the mass characteristics of a nation which
is the sum of their capabilities and potentials.
1
When we look at power in the framework of
a society or a nation, general power is considered by the sum of the societys capabilities.
Therefore, all the people who have formed a nation and have gained political organization in
the form of a country have a power that is gained from the sum of their capabilities and is
thus considered their national power. This power is the mathematical sum of the positive
and negative elements of power and foundations of that country that is active and is
comprehended when compared with other nations and countries. There are different
definitions of national power but four have been presented here:

National power consists of the materialistic and spiritual capabilities that exist in one
geographical and political unit called a country or a government.
2

In his book titled Comprehensive national power, Shuofeng Huang, the well-known
Chinese scholar, states that national power consists of perfect power and international
influence of a nation both in materialistic aspects and spiritual aspects that a nation
uses in order to survive and develop.
3

National power means: capability, potential, and capacity of a nation and a country
for using its material and spiritual resources in order to impose national
determination and gain national interests and goals.
4
National power can be defined simply as a countrys capacity to pursue strategic

goals through purposeful action. This view of national power suggests two distinct
but related dimensions of capacity: an external dimension, which consists of a
nations capacity to affect the global environment through its economic, political, and

1-Mohammad Reza. Hafeznia,. et al, analysis of geographical basics of national power of Islamic Republic
of Iran Journal of geographical science , Tarbiat Moalem University Press, 2003. p. 51.
2-Ali asgar. kazemi, Role of power in society and international relations,Tehran, Goms
publication,1994,p.16
3-Huang Shuofeng, Comprehensive National Power Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Press,
1992, p. 102
4-Hafeznia,. et al (2003), op. cit., p.170

military potential, and an internal dimension, which consists of a nations capacity to
transform the resources of its society into actionable knowledge that produces the
best civilian and military technologies possible. Any effort at creating a useful
national power profile must incorporate variables that capture these two
dimensions
.
1

Dimensions and levels of national power:
National power has two aspects: aspect of influence and aspect of force. Aspect of influence
is more subjective (although it has objective nature as well) and countries and governments
try to apply their power by imposing their influence on others and by fulfilling their
determination. Aspect of force is more objective and depends on military power and
punishment tools which are used by governments in the next steps and when the aspect of
influence does not prove effective.
2

National power of countries has different levels and degrees. Based on the space and the
effectiveness power of the phenomena and the processes outside a country, levels of power
can be divided as follows:
1- Extra-global power is a power that has an influence beyond the globe and the space
between the planets.
1. National power with global effect is a power that can affect global processes whether
they have one aspect or multiple aspects, such as superpower like the US or former
Soviet Union.
2. National power with regional effect is a power that can be manifested in a
geopolitical region, such as India in South Asia.
3. National power with local effect is a power that can only affect its neighbors, such as
Saudi Arabia in Arabic peninsula .
4. National power with domestic effect is a power that is manifested inside the borders
of a country such as Nepal that does not have any hegemony beyond its borders.

1-Ashley J. Tellis ,et al. Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age, Rand Crop.2000.p. 45
2-Jalil. roshandel, national security and international system ,Tehran, Samt Press, 1995, p.23

5.
Weakened national power that does not have total power even within its borders such
as Somalia and Afghanistan.
1

Historically, national power is linked with military capacity and capabilities, because wars
have always had significant effects on international relations and winning or losing a war
has been a factor for evaluating the power of countries. However, we cannot just rely on a
single factor in order to determine the national power of a country. For instance, the huge
expansion of Brazil, high population of Pakistan, industrial production of Belgium, and etc.
are not considered the basis of evaluating national power. The best evidence is that none of
the aforementioned counties is a first-class power.
2
In addition, national power has two
aspects; one is objective and active and the other one is subjective and potential.
Governments try to turn their potential capacities into active ones.

Functions of national power:
On the whole, power has different functions the main axis of which is the provision of the
conditions for fulfilling the goals and interests of individuals and groups. Power is the factor
of life and survival, and it is therefore favored by individuals, groups, and governments.
Any creature devoid of power is doomed to die and thus the innate need for continuance of
life forces human being to gain power. It can be said that humanity, intentionally or
unintentionally, directly or indirectly, is busy gaining power and maintaining it. This reality
expresses the natural and innate tendency of people. On this basis, national power has
different functions and applications. Some of the most important functional capabilities of
national power from the viewpoint of scholars include:
The most important function of national power of countries is satisfying national

interests, and maintaining and expanding them
.
3

Using materialistic and spiritual resources of the country with the aim of imposing
national determination and gaining the goals and national interests.

4

Guaranteeing satisfaction of the needs and wishes of a nation or a country

1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. Principles and concepts of geopolitics , Papoly publication, 2006,p. 230
2-Jablonsky. op. cit., p.35
3-roshandel. op. cit ,p.86
4-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 56

Factor of survival and development of a nation and country.
1

Following functional goals by intentional measures through affecting international
environment (in the international aspect) and turning the resources of the society into
applicable science that produces the best military and non-military technology (in
the domestic aspect).
2

As it was mentioned before, the most significant application of national power is satisfying
and guaranteeing national goals and interests of the countries. National aims and interests of
countries are different but the majority of which include:
1. Satisfying national security and reducing and controlling the threats
2. Increasing national power as a goal
3. Development and national welfare
4. Protecting the existence of a nation and a country
5. National international rights or the rights that a nation or a country has beyond its
borders
6. National and international prestige of a country
7. National independence and preventing its being ruled by other countries
8. International peace and stability with the motivation of satisfying national
interests and needs
9. Maintaining the borders of the countries and preventing its division
10. Expanding the influence and affecting different economic, cultural, ideological,
political aspects
11. Satisfying national needs within the borders through foreign facilities
12. Removing the obstacles of free imposing of national determination within the
borders and outside the borders
13. Seeking power and hegemony which is usually the wish of some countries
14. Expanding the lands
15. Reducing the influence of other governments in the internal affairs
16. Supporting foreign policy of a country

1-Shuofeng. op. cit , p.102
2-Tellis . et al. op. cit , p.56

17. Maintaining the values of life, and national identity and pride
18. Protecting national power and preventing national embarrassment

Although the aforementioned list is among the national goals and interests of countries,
achieving them or their relevance depends of the countys conditions, national power, and
the strategies pursued by political leaders
.
1

The factor behind national power is not just the tools of achieving national interests and
goals, although such a role is expected. On the other hand, national power can be manifested
as a national goal as well. Knowing that national power is the most important and
fundamental way of maintaining their existence and fulfilling their interests and goals, all
countries attempt to strengthen this tool and avoid its weakening. Strengthening national
power increases the chances of achieving national goals and weakening it will result in
failure in achieving absolute rights. In addition, countries use power to achieve their
national interests and security and try to use it to protect and develop their national interests.
In addition to these domestic and foreign goals, governments sometimes use their power to
maintain their power and lengthen their rule. They usually use power against their own
people in order to guarantee their rule and turn their friendly relation with their nation into
one filled with enmity. They use levers of power such as law, army, police, justice system,
and others to hurt their own people to give it an unreasonable legitimacy.

On the whole, national power is used by the governments in two domains:
1. Domestic domain
2. Foreign domain
In the domestic domain, power is used to legislate, regulate social affairs, implement the
law and social justice, and satisfy public security through related organized organizations
such as legislative, judicial, security, military, advertisement organizations and etc. in the
foreign domain, national power is used to protect national interests, to fulfill the national
needs through foreign approaches, satisfy national security, reduce foreign threats, enhance
national prestige, and etc.
2

1-Mohammad Reza . Hafeznia. The Principles of SocioPolitical studies ,Qom press , 2000.p. 248
2-Hafeznia. (2003) , op. cit, P. 25

In fact nations have different wishes, hopes, and interests and fulfilling such wishes
depends on the level and nature of national power particularly in comparison with other
countries. If a country enjoys a high level of national power, it can fulfill its wishes without
facing any obstacles. Some countries not only have access to such a power in the globe and
on earth, but also beyond the borders of earth. Some countries are also so weak that they
cannot fulfill their basic needs. Therefore, it can be said that there is a direct relationship
between the national power of a country and its role in the international relations. In other
words, the type of foreign policy of a country, which guarantees its role in the international
relations, is affected by the condition of national power of that country.
1
Undoubtedly, such
superpowers as Russia and the US have a different role in comparison to a mini-power like
Bahrain. In the economic domain, the role of such superpowers as the US and Japan is not
comparable with Germany.
2

In regard to the domestic and foreign uses of the national power of a country, different
scholars have presented different theories and models. One of these models, which
expresses national power in different domestic and particularly foreign domains, has been
proposed by George Modelski and it is known as input-output model. Modelski model is
mainly based on a series of hypothesis in political philosophy and this has been totally
linked to the domain of political power. The hypotheses of this model include:
1. In foreign policy, the base in maintaining, gaining, and displaying power.
2. There are different kinds of power: constructive, educational, and destructive power.
3. The necessity of prioritizing resources to goals.

1-Mohamad Kazem. Sajad pour, foreign policy of iran, Institute for Political and International Studies,
2002,p.46
2-Seifzadeh. (2003), op. cit,p. 352

Using theory of systems, Modelski compares and evaluates the foreign policy behavior and
respectively just considers on two phases of input and output of power.

Figure 1: Evaluation of input and output of power

Source:Gorge modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan
publication, 2003:p.352

As it can be seen in figure 1, the main variables of the model are input-output of power
and the policy making phase is used as a transferring fuse. The contents of modelski model
show that he used the mental framework governing the calculation of profits and expenses
in order to explain the political system as a power-producing system. In this system, the
policy maker must pay attention to the fact that the outcomes of power must be increasingly

more than the inputs of power. The environment for making policies must be in a way that
the policy maker decided on the basis of the profits that can be gained from both domestic
and foreign operation environment. Input of power generates the profits for middle power
that is the decision making environment. Eventually, output of power must be much more in
comparison to input of power. Modelskis model conclusion is that governments
conservatism, balance, and ambitious attitude depends on the output of power that is being
generated.

Comparing this change and exchange in the form of input and output of power
objectively shows the way profits are enhanced in the framework of national strategy. This
issue forces foreign policy makers to operate and measure the goals and resources of foreign
policy and thus is this project is implemented, then the interference of mentalities and
related objective issues in regard to foreign policy will be to a great extent prevented.
1

The relationship between power, interests and national strategy:
National power has in nature a tendency toward expansion and development and all nations
seek to increase their national power as well. No country can be found that is not trying to
increase the level of its natural power and enhance its position in the international system.
Just like all humans, countries have a competition for gaining more power and attempt to
gain new capabilities, opportunities, and capacities. In fact, national power is active in
nature. While it can be manifested as a national goal, it can also be used as a tool by the
governments and political leaders to gain, maintain and develop national goals.
2

National goals and interests are active as well and are always changing. National power
and security are considered among national goals which the governments try to secure by
using the lever of national power. In fact, national power is a two-dimensional phenomenon,
namely it is both the goal and the tool. It is a tool used by governments and political leaders
to gain national goals and security. The objective form and the main manifestation of
application of national power is in national strategy adopted by political leaders of a
country. It is in the national strategy that the most efficient pattern of national power is

1-Gorge. modelski, quoted by Hossein, Seifzadeh, Principles International Relations, Tehran ,Mizan
publication, 2003:p.353
2-Hafeznia. (2003) ,op. cit, P. 29

determined by political leaders. On the other hand, national power depends on it. Therefore,
the necessity of existence of a country and a nation as well as its success require that nations
and governments always try to maintain and develop their national power as national power
is the factor of existence and success of a nation. Among the main motivations for gaining
national power is shortage of resources because shortage of enough available resources and
the contradictory elements that exist for achieving the goals results in the activation of the
motivation for increasing power in order to accomplish the goals.
1

On the whole, there is a three-way relationship between national power ,national
interests, and national strategy. The quality of level of satisfying national interests depends
on the level and quality of national power of that country. In order to establish a relationship
between these two variables strategy plays an important role. In other words, strategy is
manifested between two phenomena and issues; one is power and its tools and the second
one is the goal and objective. Strategy is the link between these two phenomena. In fact,
strategy is the art and nature of application of power in order to achieve the goals.
2
In order
to define national strategy, it has been said that: strategy is the science of politics and
governing countries and national strategy is the science and knowledge of organized
development of economic, political, cultural, religious, ethical, and military capacities of a
nation and its application for achieving the national goals
3
. In addition, another definition
of national goal says: strategy consists of the art of application of all elements of power of
a nation or a group of nations in order to achieve their goals during war and peace.
4

In a country, strategy is the art of the political leaders of a country to look at the
capabilities, abilities, and level of national power, on one hand, and look at the national
interests and goals on the other hand. They then need to adopt the policies to achieve
national goals and interests by using their level of national power. Therefore, the three
elements of national power, national goals and interests, and strategy, are all linked
together and interact with one another. The following picture expresses this relationship.

1-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Theory-Building in International Relations Fundamentals and Paradigms, Tehran,
Samt publication p. 144
3-Robert. Walters , Nuclear Weapon,Tehran,trans: fatahi mohamad reza, Tehran, policy of iran, Institute for
Political and International Studies, 1985, p.3
4-Encyclopedia Encarta,CD, Under Strategy , p.98

Figure 2. The relationship between national power, interests, and strategy

Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 302

The relationship between national power, geopolitical weight and domain of influence:
On the other hand, there is also a relationship between countries geopolitical weight,
national power, and domain of influence. In this way, geopolitical weight of a country,
which is applied to the mathematical sum of elements of national power
1
, determines the
position of the national power of a country and its geopolitical position among all countries
and in the world. In addition, geopolitical weight and position affects the national strategy
of a country in the region and in the world and determines that countrys domain of
influence. In contrast, the quality and quantity of countries domain of influence affects
their geopolitical weight and national power. Therefore, governments attempt to expand the
domain of influence between them and it is by expanding the domain of influence, which is

1-Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P.211

mainly a space-geographical concept, that national security is secured, threats are reduced,
and national interests are satisfied. The following figure is indicative of this relationship.
1

Figure 3: The relationship between Geopolitical weight, National power, and Domain of influence

Source: Hafeznia. (2006) , op. cit,P. 212

On the whole, distribution of power in the international community is not equal and each
political unit attempts to allocate to itself a greater proportion of power. On this basis, the
desires and behavior of strong and weak governments in the international system and its
emergence in the international arena is different. In other words, stronger governments,
when faced with other countries power, are capable of preserving their independence and
the more the power and capability of a government, the more expanded their domain of
action. Moreover, in the international system, stronger countries enjoy more facilities and
tools to preserve their interests and in turn weaker counties have more capability to bargain.
2
In addition, governments and nations face difficult conditions for securing their interests
and desires and in regard to their relationship with other governments and getting out of it,
while trying to secure the interests depends on the degree of national power of the country.

1 -Ibid
2-Ibid

When faced with a crisis, stronger counties change the conditions to their benefit, but
weaker countries will be forced to tolerate the difficulties and ignore all or some of their
desires and interests. It should be mentioned that the application of national power during
the crisis depends on the characteristics of leaders of countries.
1

In addition to all these, strong governments have a more expanded domain of national
interests and thus face more conflicts in the arena of international politics. Meanwhile, the
domain of interests of weak countries is usually local and regional and thus limited. For
instance, in the post world War II periods, each international event affected the interests of
the two superpowers of the US and Soviet Union in a way that any reaction or threatening
action from the part of each of these two superpowers in the international system was
considered a threat against the other one. This meant that the relative position of power of
these two countries was controlled by the other one. Meanwhile, weak countries did not pay
a lot attention about the events that were happening on the other side of the world because
they were basically occupied with their own issues and their domain of interests did not go
beyond the borders of their region.
2
Another distinguishing feature of super powers and
weak countries is the expansion of their security domain. The relative power of superpowers
provides them with the opportunity to fundamentally define and change the rules and
regulations of international challenges and so wither stay immune to the consequences or
reduce them to a minimum in spite of all repeated mistakes. They even sometimes
transferred their wrong decisions to other parts of the world. This is while weaker countries
are forced to pay a heavy price for each small mistake and because they cannot afford the
price, their position will become very fragile.

On the whole, great powers try to maintain their position in the arena of international
relations and put an end to international challenges in a way that power will be distributed to
their benefit. On the other hand, weaker countries that are not satisfied with the unequal
distribution of power in the international system do not like to keep the current situation and

1-Sayed Abdol ali. Gavam, The Principles of foreign policy and international politics ,Tehran ,Samt press ,
2001.p.63
2-Ali Asgar. Kazemi, Management of International crisis ,Tehran, farhang publication. 1989. p. 82

desire to make changes in the pattern and fabric of international system.
1
Table 1 is
indicative of this issue.

Table 1: Capability of the players

Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 119

Table 1 shows the general capability of each of the players. Theoretically, the figure
simply indicates that in the international political system, only power must be considered
because lack of power makes a country weak and passive in the international arena. It
should also be mentioned that although small and middle players would like to change
the situation, they perforce to limit their ambitious to a great extent.
2

Summary of discussion:

1-Ibid
2-Seifzadeh. (2003) , op. cit, P. 118

1. The main applications of power include: securing national interests and expanding
and preserving it, guaranteeing the accomplishment of the wishes of a nation or
country, factor of survival and development of a nation and a country, following
functional goals by intentional measures through affecting the international
environment (in the international dimension), changing social resources to
applicable science that produces the best possible military and non-military
technology (domestic dimension)

2. There is a direct relationship between the national power of a country and its role in
the international relations. In other words, the kind of foreign policy of a country
guarantees its role in the international arena and this is the result of the national
power of a country.

3. National strategy links national power and national interests. In fact, strategy of art
and the nature of using power is for accomplishment of national goals. In a country,
strategy is the art of political leaders so to look at the capabilities, abilities, and level
of national power and on the other hand, look at national goals and interests.

4. There is a relationship between national power and geopolitical weight of a country
as well as its domain of influence. Strong countries have a more expanded domain of
national interests and face fewer obstacles in the way of achieving their goals. On the
other hand, the domain of national interests of weak countries is limited and such
countries face numerous failures and challenges in the way of achieving their goals.
1

1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the variables effective on national power and designing of the
model for measurement of national power of countries .Thesis of Ph.D in political geography ,Tarbiat
Modares University,Iran,2006, p. 45

Chapter Two:

A Historical Approach at power-creating factors

One of the important issues in discussions on national power is the historical approach to
regimes of power and power-creating factors in history. In more exact words, the question is
in different periods what factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and absolute
power for a special country in the system of power. Fundamentally, seeking power,
hegemony or control over regional affairs, parts or all of the world has been the main
objective in geopolitical competitions
1
and the attempts by great powers has always been in
this regard in order to achieve unique power-creating factors and tools have a better position
in the current power system.

Factors and tools for creating hegemony in the historical systems of power:

1-Pirouz. Mojtahed-Zadeh , Political Geography and Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt Publication,2002,p. 137

Trying to answer the question that in different periods of historical systems of power, what
factors and tools caused the creation of hegemony and prior power for any particular
country in the system of power, theorists have provided different explanations.
Geographical location, communication means, military factors, economic factors, cultural
tools, political position, or a combination of all these factors have been considered to be the
means of gaining power. According to these theorists, the arena of international relations is
the arena of competition between the players who try to increase their national power in
order to gain supremacy over other players in the international arena of power.
1
The table
below shows the different approaches toward hegemony.

Table2: Different approaches toward Hegemony

Source:Joseph,Nye,quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly
Rahbord,2003,p.351

As it was mentioned before, theorists have expressed different opinions about
hegemony-creating factors and tools in different historical periods. These theories are to be
explained here:


some scholars in the political science have emphasized that military power is one of
the sources for creating hegemony. In such an approach, hegemonic supremacy is the
result of military expansion. Thus, being equipped with weapons and fire units in the
14
th
and 15
th
centuries is regarded as a reason behind some changes in the distribution of
power.
1
Moreover, the attempts made by Napoleon and Hitler in regard to military
expansion have been considered to provide the grounds for hegemony in the political
world. The important issue is that except for short periods in history, no military
hegemony has proved successful in the recent centuries and no modern government has
managed to develop its military power in a way to have enough power to create a long-
term hegemony in the world. (Refer to Table 3).
2

Table 3: Attempts for creating military Hegemony

Source: Joseph,Nye, quoted by Mohamad Hossini Moghadam, Soft Power,Tehran, Quarterly Rahbord,2003,p.353

Some other theorists have attributed economic sources of power and its role to
creating hegemony. According to this attitude, some economic sources for creating
hegemony include: having an advantage over controlling raw materials, investment
resources, markets, and production of goods

Some radical political economists like Wallerstein have also investigated the
relationship between political and military hegemony and have offered different factors

2-Joseph. Nye, Power in the Global Information Age: From realism to globalization ,London: Routledge,
2004 ,p. 63

for creating hegemony. Immanuel Wallerstein describes hegemony as a situation in
which power is so imbalanced that one power can impose most of its wished and rules
on others in the economic, political, military, diplomatic, and even cultural arenas. The
materialistic base of such a power is the result of its capability in taking brave and
effective measures in all three main areas of economy (industrial production, agricultural
production, trade, and financial affairs).1 In return, theorists advocating hegemonic
stability, usually reject the relationship between military and political hegemony and
power. They state that in the 19th century Britain was not a super military power and it
was not the biggest economic power in the world. Meanwhile, Britain is considered by
some people like Giplin et al. a hegemonic power.
2

Some have also describes hegemony on the basis of behavioral factors. On this basis,
hegemony refers to a government that can regulate laws and regulations as well as
agreements for global economy. Robert Giplin, a prominent theorist in transfer of
hegemony, states that Britain and the US, as hegemonic powers after industrial
revolution, changed and implemented the rules of liberal economic system. Some
political economists state that the stability of the system of global economy is in need of
a defined factor for balance and stability periods accord with hegemonic periods. From
this point of view, the peace periods in Britain and the US are two examples. The US
and Britain were so strong that they compiled and implemented the rules and principles
for liberal economic system in the international arena in the 19th and 20th centuries. For
instance, it is believed that historically economic stability has been gained only when an
exclusive hegemonic power existed, like Britain from 1815 until World War I and the
US from 1945 until about 1970. With an exclusive hegemonic power, the rules of the
game can be compiled and implemented. In such conditions, smaller countries have
fewer choices and have to progress in the defined paths. Without a hegemonic power,
war would be a widespread event.
3

Seifzadeh is another scholar who has offered some theories in regard to the value of
players in the international system of power. He is of the conviction that two series of

2-Nye. (2004) , op. cit, P. 63
3-Ibid

hardware and software factors exist in both the domestic and foreign domains. These
hardware and software domains can play a role as power-creating factors in increasing
and decreasing the value of countries and powers. The following figure presents the gist.

Figure 4. Change in the Esteem of the players

Source: Seifzadeh, (2003) , op. cit, P. 112

According to Seifzadeh, the 20
th
century witnessed the achievements resulting from
four main changes in technological development. These four changes were in fact a
response to the ambitions of giving power to humanity. Researches concerning the
continuous scientific attempts combined the three factors of energy hardware, industry,
and communication means along with logical ambitions and gained the following
achievements:

Technology, industry and transport means to conquer the surface and the depth of
the earth by using oil and coal
Technology, industry, and transport means to conquer the surface, depth, and bed
of the sea by using electricity
Technology and industry to conquer the surface and depth of space by using
nuclear energy
Information technology by using energy of the mind and experimental data for
conquering the surface and depth of human mind

According to Seifzadeh, in the international arena the players who have managed to make
their hardware and software factors efficient, managed to enhance their position by
regarding the requirements arising from international environment. The main evolution
began in 1750. The three sources of energy, industry, and means of transport along with the
ambition to conquer the sea, the earth and the space resulted in change. During the four
revolutions, the colonized America turned into a four-dimensional superpower. Since then,
the type of energy changed from tree coal to stone coal, and then oil, electricity, nuclear
energy, and information energy.

In the domain of hardware, industry began in the two areas of physics-mechanics and
chemistry. Physics, mechanics, and the advanced field of cybernetic provided the grounds
for combining the factors and creating power. Chemistry was the factor for combining these
elements. Industry gradually began from light industries. After that, such advanced
industries like electronic brain, computer, and robot replaced them. In the area of
communication, the means of conquering the sea were first ships and submarines and they
provided humanity with the opportunity to access different locations and be able to move
between places. Cars, trains, and subways provided this ability on the ground. Then moving
on the surface did not seem to be enough, and thus submarines and spacecrafts were built
and used to access the depth of the oceans and space. These hardware factors set the
grounds for making modern human more capable.
1


Seifzadeh believes that domestic software factors should be regarded along with hard
factors. Without having philosophical ambition for progress one cannot be hopeful to
progress. Humanism and the thought for conquering the earth, the sea, and the sky were
very influential in this progress. In order to gain such a high position, in the west the
organization of the government- which was the factory of producing power- was first
developed by Machiavelli and then became a philosophy by Hobbes The achievements of
Locke, Rousseau, Montesquieu were very effective for setting the grounds for deepening
nationalism. Not only democracy put an end to the discrepancy between high and low
classes between people and intellectuals, it activated the whole society for enhancing
national power. Instead of using the force of the government for controlling people or using
the force of people for collapsing the government, democracy provided a model of
intellectuality and provided national unity. Different revolutions occurred in the political,
cultural, and economic grounds to determine how the citizens of developed countries should
divide their tasks: government must manage and direct and people must produce power.

In the international arena, the two groups of hardware and software factors provide the
requirements for foreign measures of the countries. Hardware requirements can be divided
into three categories of military- political, economic-technological, and cultural-
communicative factors. Software factors in the international arena can also be divided into
three groups of political structure (international order), international legal organizations, and
international unions. Three international hardware requirements have left different effects
on the power game and position of the players depending on environmental changes. In the
past, the military-political structure was very effective. Gradually, the cultural-
communicative structure gained a more significant role. Each of the following changes
shows us the role of the players. For instance, from the military-political viewpoint, players
can be divided into five groups: superpowers, big powers, average powers, small powers,
and tiny powers. Capabilities and activity domain of each of these powers is different.

Depending on the number of tools of power used by the players, each can be divided into
multi-dimensional or single-dimensional power.
1

Just like Seifzadeh, who emphasizes on the element of cultural structure, Gramsci
and Cox are other theorists of this field who claim that culture has an important role in
creating hegemonic power. According to them, the attempts for leading the world are
possible through the way of culture. Gramsci believes that a country will lead the world
in the future that has the best interpretations of global changes.
2
Such a country can
culturally lead other societies in the future.

Peter Taylor, a scholar of political geography, has also proposed some theories in
regard to the grounds of hegemony and the way geopolitical position of countries is
subject to change. According to him: in the arena of political geography, hegemony will
govern a country that is very strong in regard to economy, politics, or culture for a short
time. This cycle includes the emergence and fall of this position. This cycle begins when
the ruling country gains a prior position in production and thus expands its leadership in
order to gain commercial and financial fields. In addition, this country gains its political
rule by jointly leading the countries in a successful competition with its main competitor.
It then attempts to use international affairs to its benefit. The ruling country is then able
to impose its cultural leadership and its liberal ideological values. however, after a short
period the peak of its leadership role will gradually decline.
3

Taylor is of the conviction that a ruling country like the UK is mid 19
th
century and
the US in mid 20
th
century, are not only superior in the military arena, but also allocate
to themselves the economic and cultural resources of power so that to compile their
regulations and to impose their international behavior. As a result, US rule is not only
indicative of change in the identity of ruling power, but it is also indicative of the

2-Ibid
3-Richard. Muir, political geography A new introduction. Translated: Dore Mirhydar,Thran.2000.p.274

institutions and the methods through which the US has presented to the world its
positions of power. Such issues include: production, massive consumption, limited
welfare-social policies, electoral democracy based on weak political parties, and
economic policies of the government in line with stimulating private economic
activities.
1

Noam Chomsky is another theorist in regard to the global system of power.He

believes that competition for leading the international system and position of winner
power is mainly economic. According to him, the structure of capitalism is in a way that
being superior in economic-industrial power means gaining winner power in the system.
Leaders of capitalist governments consciously try to achieve this aim and position. From
Chomskys point of view it is for maintaining such superior and winner position and
global ruling that the US wants to keep its technological superiority over other countries.
2

Quincy Wright is another scholar who believes in the role of economic factors in
creating military hegemonic power. He mentions the role of economic factors and
regards the economic capability of a country for tolerating the cost of war as an
intensifying factor for war. According to him: countries always seek to increase their
military capabilities for war. A new war will happen when a country reconstructs its
economic capability. Heavy industries consider the time suitable for giving speed to their
production of war weapons. To Quincy Wright, the first measure in this phase is that
imperialistic tendencies will reappear. Then in order to justify these tendencies, the
factor of defense against invasions will be proposed. Gradually, some sort of war
polarization will happen. The new situation encourages those powers that are in risk to
find solutions and then war will become inevitable. He describes the changes in patterns
of industry of war and divides it into four important periods of discovery in war industry.

1. Period of experimental adaption of war weapons and religious wars (1450-1648)

1-Ibid .p. 275
2-Noam. Chomsky, Deterring Democracy, trans: Mhvash Golami, Tehran, Etelaat Publication, 1992,p. 74

2. Period of emergence of professional armies and tribal wars (1648-1789)
3. Period of industrialization and national wars
4. Period of full-scale wars and emergence of air and military industries (1914 onward)
1

Modelski is another theorist who has proposed some factors as the tools of great
powers for ruling the world. In his theory called theory of power cycle has considered
some hypotheses for achieving sovereign power. Among them is that the political
leadership of the world is in need of leadership in the economic power because
economic power gives order to global economy and facilitates giving order to the
political structure and war technology. Alongside political determining power, he
considers the waves of political innovation. In fact, he attaches more significance to
political power and the innovations resulting from it, but believes an economic power is
needed to achieve and to implement these supremacies. Therefore, there is a need for a
combination of political and economic innovation in order to gain a position in regard to
leading the world. According to the two kinds of innovations stated above, global
communications industry will revolutionized as well.
2
Using this frame of history,
Modelski predicts that in the future cyclic changes will cause the emergence of two
processes. 1) decline of US leadership 2)possible changes in the process of global wars.
Explaining the first item, he insists that US leadership has not arrived to its end yet. In
order to keep this position, the US aims to maintain its leadership by creating some sort
of political and economic innovation inside its borders. However, to Modelski, this wish
will come true only when the US succeeds to strategically emphasize its political
innovations. In regard to the second item, Modelski claims that global war will turn into
global peace and thus the future global leadership will be mainly based in political,
technological, and economic merits rather than military power.
3
also Modelski and
William Thompson in book Leading Sectors and World present new Model about

1-Quincy. Wright, A Study of War, Chicago, University of Chicago press,1942, p.295-8
3-Ibid

Leading Sectors in creation Hegemonic Control during historical ages. The following
Figure 5, expresses this issue:

Figure 5: Leading Sectors Underlying Hegemonic Control in History

SOURCE: George. Modelski and William R. Thompson, Leading Sectors and World Powers (Columbia: University of
South Carolina Press, 1996), p. 69.

Chapter Three:

Sources and Factors of national power

National power has different sources and basics that produce national power in one single
function. The main factors forming national power of countries are in different domains.
Geopolitical science, which investigates and evaluates national power of countries, pays
attention to all these factors. Some of these factors of power have a basic and fundamental
role and some other considered secondary.
1

Power of countries depends on different factors and resources and it actually arises from
them. Economic, individual, scientific and spiritual, social factors and the like can all be

1-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The evaluation of the Models of measurement of national power, Tehran,
Geopolitics Quatrerly , Geogrphical Organization ,winter 2008, p.155

sources of power. Factors of national power are both in regard to quality and quantity, it
means variables of each of the abovementioned factors can have both quantity and quality
aspects. Since the issue of national power has been regarded by geography scientists,
geopolitics and political geography professionals, political science and international
relations specialists, strategy makers and politicians, each group has tried to provide to
present a list of the factors affecting national power and most of these factors have been
agreed upon. However, the common problem in all of them, which has not dealt with yet, is
measuring national power and its indexes. 1 Due to the existence of some quality factors
and impossibility of measuring them, no one has managed to offer a proper and complete
model for comprehensive measuring of national power. However, some researches have
managed to assess and compare the power of countries on the basis of some factors and
variables and thus show the position of countries and regions in the world. On the whole,
power is either assessed in comparison to another power or in comparison to a number of
important indexes or level of power. In other words, an average of the producing factors of
power in one country is assessed.
2

Different points of view on factors ,foundations and sources of national power:
Scholars in different fields such as political science, international relations, political
geography and geopolitics have expressed their viewpoints for explaining the resources of
power in different countries. Here the viewpoints and opinions of different experts in regard
to the factors and bases of different countries power will be presented in brief:

David Jablonsky explains the variables of national power as:
1. Natural factors of power, including:
A. Geography: location, climate, size, topography that affect national capacity
B. Population: size, processes, structure, etc.
C. Natural resources: raw materials of agriculture and farming, mines, burning
materials, access quality and etc.

2. Social factors of power including:

1-roshandel. op. cit ,p.70

A. Economy: economic capacity and development, high technology, economic
growth, GDP, economic policy, economic relations ,etc
B. Army and military capacity: force, weapon technology, and etc.
C. Political factors, spirit, governance form, population attitude, management and skill
of administration,
D. Psychological factor, national behavior, national character and spirit, national
integrity
1

Hans Morgenthau, one of the founders of Realism movement in international
relations, divides the main variables and factors of national power into 8 parts, which
are:
1. Geographical location
2. Natural resources (particularly food and raw material)
3. Industrial capacity
4. Military preparation (particularly technology, leadership, quantity and
quality of armed forces) 5. Population (particularly distribution and
tendencies)
6. National character, national spirit
7. Diplomatic quality
8. Government quality
2

Organski, considers the following factors the sources of national power:
population size, political capability of government, and economic
development. Combining these factors, GDP is considered to be the means of
measuring national power.
3

Nicholas Spikeman, the American Geo-politician, believes that the following

variables are the foundations of power: countrys size, identity of borders, population,

1-Jablonsky. op. cit,P. 43
2-Hans. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1967, quoted by Hoshang
Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.33
3-A.F.K. Organski, World Politics, New York: Knopf, 1958 , quoted by roshandel, op. cit ,p.68

natural resources, economic and industrial development, financial power, racial
compatibility, amount of social integrity, political stability, and national spirit.
1

Martin Glassner, scholar of political geography, names the variables of national
power as:
1. Land, including: location, size, shape, expansion, strategic depth, natural
resources, environmental foundations
2. Population, including: quality and quantity aspects such as number,
gender and age relations, military force arising from it, immigration, level
of education, literacy, distribution of wealth, national quality, national
combination, smart people, social institutions, way of thinking and
national interests
3. Government, structure, efficiency, populism, general acceptability, quality
of managers and political leaders, health of performance, lawfulness, and
etc.
4. Economy: wealth, GDP, capacity of production, trade surplus, science and
technology, investment, research, industry, skill of human force,
management, agriculture, bank, insurance, etc.
5. Communications: transport, goods flow, services, and beliefs, level of
awareness, radio, telephone, TV, media, etc.
6. Military force: equipment, force, education, quality of governance,
motivations, logistics, military doctrine, strategy and tactic, information
system, preparation of the forces, strategic bases, strategic partners.
7. Foreign relations: international trade, cultural relations, participation in
distribution and transfer of development resources, participation in the UN
and other international organizations, international position and prestige.
2

Guido Fischer, German author, considers the following three groups the variables of
national power:

2-Martin. Glassner ,Political Geography , John wieley and sons, New York,1993,P.260

1. Political factors, including: geographical location, size of land, population size and
distribution, organizational skill and cultural level, types of borders and the position
of neighboring countries.
2. Psychological factors, including: economic flexibility and skill in invention,
tolerance and perseverance, talent and capacity of change and transfer
3.
Economic factors, including: capacity of the land and underground wealth, industrial
organization and level of technology, foreign trade development, financial resources
.
1

Another German author, named Rudolf Steinmetz, considers the following eight
elements the contributing variables to national power: 1. Population; 2. Size of the land;
3. Wealth; 4. political facilities; 5. Quality of governance; 6. National unity and
integrity; 7. Maintaining the respect and friendship of foreign powers; 8. Behavioral
quality
2

Huang Suofeng, the well-known Chinese scholar, in his book titled comprehensive
national power mentions that soft power is made up of: political power, educational and
cultural power, diplomatic power, and partnership power:

Political power includes political system, strategic goals, social stability, national
unity, capacity of making decisions and organization. Cultural and educational power
means the quality of the work force, development of human resources, educational
investment, educational system, educational comprehensiveness, teachers quality,
quality of cultural authorities, spread of TV, film, books, journals, and their influence in
the international arena, diplomatic power including foreign relations, foreign policy,
foreign activities, and the ability of cooperating in the international community. The
power of partnership is principally refers to the ability of controlling and supervising
team work.
3

1-Hoshang. Amery ,Principle of International Relations, Agah press, 2002, p.328
2-Sayed Hadi. Zarghani, The introduction to national power, Tehran, Research Institute of Strategic Studies,
2009,p. 124
3-ZHU. Majie ,Role of Soft Power in International Relations ,Taken from Internet:http://www.Siis
.org.cn/English/journal/en 2003/ Zhumajie.htm

John Wakelin , in his book titled The Roots of Diplomacy names the factors and
variables of national power as follows:
1. Geographical factors, including: size, shape, natural situation, borders, situation,
geographical realm and conditions
2. Military factors, including: defense budget, number of personnel, military equipment,
techniques, strong movements, quality of military leadership.
3. Economic factors, including: resources, food, productions, energy
4. Colonies, including: resources of colonies, human force, military bases of colonies
5. Social and human factors, including: population, national characteristics and national
spirit, social unity
6. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, governance, factor of
popularity, national prestige, applied quality of resources of national power.
1

In his book titled international Relations in the Changing World, Joseph Frankel
names the power-creating factors as: population, geography, economy, government and
military organization, psychological-social factors, and international strategic situation.
2

National Institute of Studies in Japan has designed the project of comprehensive
national power of Japan and has offered 3 main factors for calculating the
comprehensive national power of a country. These factors are: capacity of international
cooperation, ability of survival, power of force, capacity of international cooperation to
the capabilities of the country and its presence in the international arena. Capacity of
survival depends on national determination and friendly union and the power of force
emphasizes the capability of the country in management of its foreign relations.
3

Saul,b.Cohen, the contemporary American scholar of political geography, names the
factors affecting power and the role of each of the components of system such as
governments and countries, as:

1-John. Wakelin ,The Roots of Diplomacy, Trans: Abdolali Gavam ,Tehran, Gomes press, 1991,p. 69-71
2-Joseph. Frankel, International relations in a changing World, Tehran, Translate by Abdolrahman Aalem,
Institue for Political and International Studies,2003, p.150
3-Majie. op.cit ,p.4

1. Domestic factors and changes such as political, economic, social, cultural and
technological structure.
2. Foreign factors such as foreign trade, political relations, military bases, foreign
partners, immigration issue, etc which help the development and mutual interaction
between countries and governments as well as the connection between them as
components of the system.
3. Domestic forces which are present in the foreign countries
.
1

Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial production,
export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers, reduction
of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, Cohen
designed a pattern to evaluate countries.
2

John M. Colins in his work titled Big Strategy, names the following factors as the
variables of national power: influential political force in the domestic and international
arenas, national character, educations and science, and many other factors.

In his model for measuring national power, Ray Cline mentions the following
elements as factors of power: economic capacity and capability, population and
expansion, tendency to continue national strategy, strategic objective, military capability
and capacity.
3

Friedrich Ratzel has also emphasized on the role of two factors of expansion and
location of countries on their power.
4

Pamer and Parkins contribute countries power to seven phenomena:
Geographical situation, mineral resources, technology, population, ideology, national
spirit, leadership.
5

1-Saul.B. Cohen ,Geopolitics in the new world Era, In Reordering in the world ,USA :west view press
,1994, P.43
2-Ibid
3-Tellis .et al. op. cit , p.30
4-Doreh. Mirhydar, political geography, Tehran, Samt press, 1998, p.6

Jalil Roshandel in his book titled national security and international system, names
the factors of national power as:
geographical factors, including: climate, geographical situation, expansion, raw
material, natural resources
*human factors, including: population, population combination, population quality,
human force, industrial human force
*cultural factors, including: cultural heritage, national unity, ideology
*structure of government, including: political form of the government, efficiency of
government.
1

Ali Asghar Kazemi names the following variables as the factors of national power:
1.
Geographical location; 2. Population and human force; 3. Production capacity and
ability, resource and factories; 4. Transport and communication; 5. Scientific talents,
innovations and inventions; 6. Economic system; 7. Administrative and
governmental organization; 8. Strategic situation; 9. Ideology and social behavior;
10. Information and knowledge; 11. Military equipment; 12. Leadership wisdom.
2

Jamrasani Farahani believes that the elements of national power are formed from
domestic tools as well as the tools of the allies. These tools include: political force
dominating the thoughts and actions of those inside and outside the country,
geographical strength and weakness, economic power particularly natural resources,
capacity of industries, financial credits, living location, spirit and education, scientific
and technological base, military and leadership equipment.
3

In his book titled Different Theories in International Relations, Hussein Seifzadeh
considers the variables of power to be: 1. Geographical situation; 2. National resources;
3. Population; 4. Quality of government; 5. National spirit; 6. Quality of leadership; 7.
Nationalism; 8. National characteristics; 9. Ideology; 10. Democracy; 11. Capacity and
degree of leadership in a nation.
4

1-roshandel. OP. CIT,P. 69
2-Kazemi. op. cit (1994), p. 139
3-Ali reza. Gamrasani Farahany, concepts of national security, Tehran, 1995,p. 24
4-Hossein. Seifzadeh, Different Theories in International Relations, Tehran, Gomes publication,1995, p. 141

Kenneth N. Waltz suggests the following items: population size and land size,
resources, economic capability, military power, stability and political capability.
1

Joshua GoldStein in International Relation emphasizes the significance of

population, land, geography, natural resources as well as political culture, nationalism,
and science and technology as the sources of power. However, among the sources of
power, he attaches great significance to geography and geopolitical situation of the
country and says the most important factors of great position of a government are:
location, location, and location.
2

From a Geopolitical point of view, factors of power include:
A. Fixed factors including, 1. Space and its divisions; 2. Land or location; 3.
Expansion of the land; 4. Natural resources and paths; 5. Shape of the country
B. Dynamic factors, including: 1. Population and residents; 2. Natural resources; 3.
Political, social, and cultural organizations.
3

Tahami explain the factors of national power as:
1. Economic factors, including: economic development, good economic and
commercial relations with other countries, lack of unemployment (creating job
opportunities), not being dependent on one single production, economic and
technological independence, fair distribution of income
2. Cultural and social factors, including: resolving ideological conflicts, solving the
issue of immigration, cultural enhancement, cultural exchanges with other nations,
removing the gaps between the poor and the rich, freedom and creating social
justice, lack of brain drain, resolving the negative effect of foreigners propaganda,
solving the problem of environmental pollution
3. Political factors, including: resolving border disputes, political unity and sympathy
with other countries particularly the neighboring countries, strengthening the

1-Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics Reading, son-Wesley, 1979, quoted by Tellis ,et al. op.
cit , p.32
2-Joshua .Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999, p.59
3-Ezatolah . Eezaty, Geopolitics, Tehran, Samt press, 1998,p. 25

position of the government, resolving tribal disputes, political agreement, national
unity
4.
Military factors, including: resolving border disputes, resolving tribal disputes
1

Abdol Ali Ghavam explains the factors and variables of power in his book titled
Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy.
1. Ideology and political values that bring legitimacy and acceptability for the political
system
2. Social-human factors, including: population size, national features, national spirit,
social integrity
3. Political factors, including: political stability, leadership, form of government,
national credibility
4. Geographical factors, including: expansion, shape, natural situation, borders and
location
5. Military factors, including: weapons, equipments, quality of human forces,
leadership, ,military budget, bases, military techniques, motivation of forces,
logistics.
6. Economic factors, including: GDP, annual income, quality of industrial and
agricultural productions, access to resources, degree of dependence on financial and
economic resources of other countries.
2

Abbas Nabavi also names the sources of power in his book titled The Philosophy of
Power:
In a general investigation, the sources of power can be identified as: first, natural
resources and what is given to humanity by nature for producing power. Second,
human resources and what is used inside human beings and the human society for
producing power. Third, extra-terrestrial resources and what is effective and influential
outside nature and humanity for producing political-social power. To him, each
source of creating power has the following elements:

1-Mogtaba.Tahami, national security and defence politics, Tehran, University of national defence ,1995, p.33
2-Abdol Ali. Ghavam, Principles of Foreign Policy and International Policy, Tehran, Samt press, 2004, p. 69

1. Natural sources, including: time, natural material (by possession), geographical
situation, and natural capabilities.
2. Human resources, including: population, science, culture, and beliefs
3. Extraterrestrial resources
1

Richard Muir, an scholar in the field of political geography, presented a combined
model consisting of five variables which was able to provide a tentative estimation of
national power of countries. These variables included: expansion, population, production
of alloy, size of army and military forces, number of nuclear submarines.
2

Mohammad Reza Hafiznia divides the most important power-creating factors into 9
groups in his book titled Principle and concepts of Geopolitics.
1. economic factors, including:
A. Infrastructures of production such as national investment, national savings,
degree of flow of the assets, natural resources, transport, energy, space, etc.
B. Capacity of production, such as: industrial production, agricultural production,
farming production, production of technical and professional services
C. Level of production, such as: GDP, production per capita, surplus of national
production, international success of production, combination of production
D. Production exchange such as export, import, and trade balance
E. Wealth and financial resources such as: foreign loans, international savings of
currency, international investment, financial services (bank and insurance),
wealth of residents abroad
2. Land factors or natural geographical factors, including:
A. Location such as geopolitical, strategic, communication and climate situation.
B. Situation such as shape, topography, situation of borders, natural security,
climate
C. Expansion and space such as constructed, exploitable spaces, strategic depth,
environmental foundations (water, land, plants, etc).

1-Abbas. Nabavy , philosophy of power, Tehran, Ssmt press, 2000, p.126
2-Richard. Muir, ,.Modern Political Geography .Mac Millan Education:London and Hong Kong, 1981, p.150

3. Political factors, such as: political stability, efficiency of government
organization, leadership and political management, form of government, domestic
security

4. Scientific factors including:
A. Scientific foundation such as number of universities, scientific and research
centers, lecturers, researchers, scientists, etc.
B. Production of science such as number of graduates, number of high school
students, published books, number of scientific journals, scientific articles,
researches, scientific conferences, number of inventions and discoveries.
C. Scientific exports such as: number of published articles in foreign journals or
foreign conferences, number of published books outside the country, number
of scientists abroad, number of registered inventions outside the country, etc.

5. Social factors such as:
A. Population: number, age combination, age longitude, general death, death of
children
B. Degree of compatibility and national unity (religious, language, tribes)
C. Social welfare: annual income, health situation, level of accommodation
possession, level of access to hygienic water, etc.

6. Cultural factors, including:
A. level of culture: degree of literacy, book use per capita, media per capita,
computer per capita, number of internet users
B. National features and characteristics: national honors, national characteristics
(tolerance and struggles)
C. Ideology and beliefs
D. Cultural heritage and national history and country

7. Military factors such as quantity and quality of human force, equipment and
weapons, quality of command (strategy, tactic, military arts, etc), organizational
quality, support and logistics, force combination, strategic weapons.
8. Factors Trans-national including: international competitors and partners,
diplomatic capability, residents of the country living abroad, presence and role in
international organizations, military bases beyond the borders.
9. Space factors (including number of research satellites, number of space stations,
etc).
1

Criticism and evaluation of theoretical models of factors(variables) of national power:
Investigating the abovementioned models and theories in regard to the sources of national
power, a number of issues can be mentioned as conclusion
2
:

1. As it has been shown in Figure 6, a great part of these factors and variables are
shared between the models, however, this has been stated in different ways, but they
share the same nature.

2-zarghani, (2009), op .cit, p. 160

2. Although these models are in most cases similar, these models have not been able to
measure national power in a particular framework; because some variables of national
power have just quality aspect
.

3. The most important factors and variables affecting national power have been
separated on the basis on the abovementioned theories in the frame of 27 variables and
the percentage of each variable has been investigated as shown in Figure 6

Figure 6: Repetition of the national power variables in 28 variant theories

Source: Zarghani,(2008),op. cit. p.232

On this basis, as it has been shown in the above figure, in the 28 theories and models the
variables forming national power are the three variables of:
A. Population, quality and quantity features
B. Quality of leadership, management, quality of government

C. Natural resources, raw materials, mines
Having the highest percentage (repetition) and three factors of:
Strategic factors, transport, tribal compatibility have the lowest percentage.

4. In all of the abovementioned models, those variables that are considered to be quality
and are not measurable are mentioned alongside the quantity factors forming national
power. The most important quality factors forming national power have been mentioned
in Table 4

Table 4: The quality factors and variables of national power

Source: Zarghani,(2006),op. cit. p.232

5. A great number of model designers have generally emphasized on the effect of
geographical factors and features in national power and have considered geographical
situation of a country to be the most important factor of national power. Some have even
gone beyond this and have said that the policy of each country determines the geography
of that country.
1
In spite of this, reviewing the combination of conceptual models that
have been presented, it seems that the values of the factors forming national power are
different to different model designers. In this regard, the great expansion and proper
geographical location, demographic factors, scientific and technological factors, military
capabilities, economic capabilities and finally the role and importance of the country in
the global system of power has been emphasized by different scholars. The important
issue in this regard is that the combination of different factors is a better indicative of
national power rather than the limited number of factors or emphasis on a particular
aspect of capabilities such as economic, political, or military capabilities. In addition, the
national power of a country would be the result of the performance of power-creating
and weakness-creating factors and the mathematical sum of the positive and negative
aspects of their performance would constitute the national power
2
.

6.
There are numerous factors of political in different aspects such as political,
economic, cultural, and military aspects, however, they have different positions in a way
that some have a fundamental position in comparison to others and some follow others.
Some influence national power directly and some indirectly. Some aspects like location,
export resources and others have a direct influence.
3

7.
Some of the abovementioned factors do not always have a power-creating
performance and have sometimes a negative role. For instance high population growth
and high population can cause problems for a poor country and it can unstabilize the
government because of shortage of food, increase of demand for social services and etc.

1-Roshandel. op. cit. p.71
2-Zarghani. (2006),op. cit. p.232
3-Hafeznia. (2003), op. cit, p.49

and can help the rise of tension in social relations among the poor and wealthy classes of
the society.
1

8. Investigation and evaluation of some factors of power such as number of personnel in
the army, nuclear weapons, and amount of raw materials such as oil is very simple.
However, some other factors of power particularly the factors such as national spirit,
national characteristics, quality of diplomacy, government, and leadership are more
difficult to be estimated and evaluated. On the other hand, it is obvious that factors of
power are interrelated because for instance having access to rich raw materials would not
be of great use without technological progress. Due to the dependence of these factors on
one another and since the factors of power cannot be carefully measured or cannot be
assessed using an exact quantity criteria. The attempt to show the power of a country by
using figures and statistics cannot be exact since figures are usually not able to provide a
correct indication of the power of a country particularly because such important quality
factors influence this area. The existence of potential help, degree of sacrifice of people,
their capacity for tolerating hardship, flexibility of the countrys organizations, technical
skill and science are among the quality factors that determine the whole power of a
country.

9.
Since we live in the era of the imbalance of technological advances, the relative
significance of different capabilities are always changing. For instance, oil has
substituted coal as the main resource of energy and it itself can be replaced by Uranium
in the future. If nuclear processes by combination reach a stage to release energy, then
uranium tool will lose its value. In that case, few atomic materials would be needed.
Weapons constantly get old, submarines and huge ships get useless, ballistic shuttles
replace airplanes and their pilots after a while. Technology is not the only phenomenon
that is changing. Not only from the evolution of new raw materials and weapons, but
also smaller changes in the relations of power can produce huge gaps in the efficiency of
government or in peoples attitude.
2

1-Nicholas. Eberstad , Population Change and National Security ,Foreign Affairs, Summer 1991,VOL
70,No.3,p.11
2 -Francel. op.cit, p.147

10. Designers of the model, with regard to the time of their life, have attached
importance to special factors in their models. These factors have depicted higher power-
creating value in that particular time. In fact, the majority of the abovementioned
theories are in regard to the 20
th
century and particularly the 50s until 70s. As a result
they do not accord with updates and do not include the new power-creating factors. This
can be considered to be the most important problem of the abovementioned models. In
addition, the majority of these conceptual models are not comprehensive. In other words,
they do not include the different aspects of power (economic, cultural, military, social,
political, etc.). However, there are a few exceptional models among them one can
mention the models presented by Martin Glassner, Ashly Telis et al., John Week Lin, Ali
Asghar Kazemi, Abdol Ali Ghavam, and Hafiznia. The models presented by Hafiznia
and the model offered by Ashli Telis et al., which have been published in Evaluation of
National Power in the Post-Industrial Era published in 2000, is of higher value both in
regard to the comprehensiveness of the model and in regard to the new power-producing
factors such as factors of information technology, communications, and nano-technology
in this model.
1

Suggested Conceptual model of national power:
After investigation and evaluation of the above models, the model presented by Hafiznia
proved to be more comprehensiveness in regard to variety, number of variables affecting
national power, consideration for positive and negative performance of the variables, and
emphasis on strategic variables compatible with current time. Therefore, this model was
used as the conceptual model for designing the operational model of assessing national
power. Features of this model include:

1-Zarghani. (2008), op. cit, p. 152

Those factors and variables in regard to quantity that affect national power that can be used
to design the model for evaluation of national power of countries, can be divided into nine
groups. Each of these factors is composed of a number of variables. These nine factors
include:

Figure 7 : Model with nine factors of national power

Source: Hafeznia,2006, p.161

In regard to the above model, it is important to mention a few points:
A. The factors of this model in each group is put in the multi-level relation that can be
determined in the following way:
Table 5: conceptual and operational variables of national power

Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p272

The relationship between factors of power is depicted in the following model.

Figure 8: The Linear relationship between factors of power

Sourcs: Hafeznia,(2003), op. cit, p273

B. Some of the factors and variables of the model are of quantity nature and are not
measurable and thus measuring the power will cause problems. Therefore, one of the
following methods must be chosen. They must possibly be transformed into operational
variables and measurable factors. In other words, measurable factors must be introduced
for them. For instance, for political cooperation, the factor of number of votes in national
elections (presidential election) can be used. Another way is to evaluate national power
on the basis of the factors and variables that are of quantity nature and they can be used
in the framework of quality analysis of national power of the country and its comparison
with other countries. If it is not possible to use either of these methods, power must be
ignored in their evaluation.
1

C. Since the aim behind designing this conceptual model is designing the model of
evaluating national power, it has been attempted to regard the validity of the sources of
collecting data and to emphasize on those variables, which have comprehensive quantity
data (for more than 150 countries).

1-Hafeznia. (2003), op. cit, p272

Chapter Four:
Approaches to Measuring of national power

Power of different countries can be compared in different conceptual ways. It seems that
three dimensions are particularly significant. Weight explains the degree to which a
certain government can be influenced. Grounds, instead of functional aspects, refers to the
series of issues in which power leaves an effect (such as economic or military) and
domain refers to the geographical aspects, regional arenas, inside the region or the world
of power, and the number of governments and other factors.
1
In addition, it is possible to
perform the measurement in two forms of direct metric or indirect evaluation. In the
first kind of measurement, there is a clear factor, basis and tool for expressing the quantity
of the issue or the amount of the issue under investigation. However, in the second form of
measurement, the issue under investigation is complicated and is a combination of different
factors and thus there is not a clear factor or tool for its measurement. Power is among the
phenomena that is impossible to be measured directly and is extremely difficult to be
measured indirectly.
2

Calculating and measuring national power and designing a model with which we can
compare countries in a certain time and or the situation of one country in two different times
has always been one of the challenges facing scientists in political geography, geo-political,
international relations and political science. In this respect, to measure the power of
countries in all stages after war many efforts have been made especially in the 60's and 70's.
3

These attempts can be divided into three categories: some scholars have just introduced
the factors affecting national power in the framework of the elements constituting national
power and thus have identified a number of variables as the most important factors affecting
national power of countries. The second group, while presenting a conceptual model, has
tried to measure national power of countries on the basis of the scores gained from their
hypothetic variables. Finally, the third group, while choosing some of the factors and
variables by using a mathematical model, and identifying the nature of the relationship and
the combination of the hypothesized variables, have tried to evaluate the national power of

1-Frankel. op.cit , p.154
2-Mehdy. Motahar nia, Concept of power in politic and international relations,Tehran, Institue for Political
and International Studies, 1999, p. 158
3- Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.12

countries. Different viewpoints in regard to factors of national power were completely
explained in the previous chapter. While examining the viewpoints of different scholars,
this chapter evaluates the conceptual models and mathematical model of evaluating national
power and while expressing the problems, provides the theoretical framework of the
proposed model for evaluation of national power.

Evaluation of national power: a vain attempt or resolving a big problem
Fundamentally speaking, there are different attitudes towards the issue of measuring
national power among the scholars. These opinions sometimes contradict one another in a
way that designing a model for measuring national power seems impossible to some
scholars. In contrast, some other scholars are of the conviction that it is an inevitable
necessity and is the way of solving an important problem in political geography. In order to
gain more information on some of these attitudes, some are to be explained here:

Peter Taylor, the contemporary scholar of political geography, considers the
presentation of a comprehensive model of calculating national power a solution of one
big problem in political geography. He believes that since power is among the notions
that cannot be evaluated directly, then calculation of power of countries has turned into a
major setback.
1

Joseph Frankle is among the people who believe that power cannot be exactly
measured. According to him: one of the theories that obscures the notion of power in
international relations, is the idea that power is completely measurable because some
tasks as counting the armed soldiers, capacity of warships, capability of alloy industry
that serves the demands of war can be increased and compared. Power of the
government encompasses a number of important factors that are usually referred to as
the capabilities. However, these factors do not explain the reason power can be
completed. The fact that some of these factors can be considered in regard to their
quantity, should not give us the impression that power can be measured. Analysis of the

1-Taylor. peter, op cit , p.29

performance of governments provides a better notion of their power in comparison to
statistical data.
1

Richard muir another political geographician, regard all the attempts to measure
national power as indicative of a positivist approach in its best and believe: power
cannot be measured exactly because power with regard to the enemies and in regard to
the expansion of other variables such as location in which power is being imposed, is a
relative phenomenon. For instance, in the post-war years the enforcement of power of
the US gained that country much more success in the central and south America rather
than in the Middle East.in addition, any hypothesis that such obscure or unstable
factors as spirit, national determination, nationalism, or temporary factors such as the
quality of leadership can be decreased to mathematic value is indefensible and baseless.
2

Francis baken is among those who consider the evaluation of national power almost
impossible and even a mistake. He states: the size of a country in regard to expansion of
the land can be measured and the income and possessions of that country are calculable.
Population can be determined by collecting statistics and the number or the size of cities
can be gained by using maps and cards. In spite of all these, nothing is more wrong than
the idea that an exact evaluation or a proper judgment about power and the forces of a
country are possible

Seifzadeh believes that calculation of the physical capabilities of a nation cannot be
indicative of the power of that country and thus those capabilities and abilities that deal
with quality, such as psychology and determination, must be considered as well as the
resources and the hardware. It is usually said that the power of a nation is the
combination of the capabilities of that nation. However, this definition cannot express
the gist of the matter. Although power always encompasses some abilities but it includes
other dimensions as well. Although the capabilities of a nation are measurable, power
includes some psychological capabilities and requirements. The discussion about

1-Frankel. op.cit , p.44
2-Muir. op.cit ,P. 273

psychology of power is very complicated and sensitive because it largely depends on the
images different nations hold in regard to one another. In other words, measurement of
physical capabilities of a nation cannot indicate its power and psychology and
determination must be regarded as much as resources and the hardware.
1

Jeffrey Heart: in spite of the possibility of analysis of the quantity factors of power
such as GDP, number of military forces, the quality factors of power such as leadership,
ideology, political legitimacy are not easy to measure.
2

Afshordi, too, believes that it is difficult to evaluate national power due to its quality
nature and active nature of some factors of power. He says: determining the national
power of countries is not a simple task. Material and spiritual factors with potential
forms affect the formation of national power of a country, however, in most cases it is
not possible to give them quantity and compare them with one another. The nature of the
factors forming national power is in a way that some are quality, some are active, and
some data cannot be measured. These features make it difficult to exactly evaluate the
national power of countries.
3

In contrast, some other scholars consider studying this issue a waste of time and a
vain attempt. Prescott, a scholar in the field of political geography, is among these
people. He believes: attempts for measuring the national power of a country is a vain
attempt that was performed in the previous decades and fortunately scientists of our era
do not waste their time with such issues.
4

Some have also warned that the methods of measuring power can lead us to some
errors. For instance, Hans Morgenthau has warned that single-variable approaches
should be avoided in calculating national power and extra attention must not be paid to

1-Seifzadeh. (1995), op. cit, p.140
2-Jeffrey .Hart, Three Approaches to the Measurement of power in international Relation .International
Organization ; No.30,1976,p.300
3-Mohammad Hossein. Afshordi, Geopolitics of the Caucasus and the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic
of iran,Tehran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 2002, p.237
4-JR,V. Prescott, New approach in political geography, Translated by Doreh Mirhydar, Tehran
University,1972,p. 52

each of the factors when measuring national power.
1
Moreover, Muir emphasizes that
geographical factors influence the power of a country and warns us not to express
something that reminds us of environmental fatalism or raw geopolitics.
2
H& M. Spravt
are among those who warn against evaluation of national power or in their viewpoint
analysis of capabilities. According to them: it is nonsense to speak of capabilities in
abstract. Capability always means the ability of performing a task or creating or
continuing the conditions. Political hypotheses might remain implied. However, since
some aims and tools have not been predicted, no calculation is possible. Having access
to some natural factors is not important at allthe data related to physical geography
does not have political significance in nature. This also applied to the data regarding
population, technology, economy or environment. These factors have political
significance only when they are related to a series of hypotheses on the following issues:
what is supposed to be performed, what are the means, when and where it is to be
performed and against which enemies, friends, or audience.
3

Some reasons have been the cause of not being able to design an extensive national power
plan by scientists,for example:
Power is a term which is integrated with qualitative variables and indexes and
measuring of them are difficult
Variables which can be quantified are crucially affected by those which cannot; for
example ,it is a simple matter to add up the population or numbers of fighter aircraft
which a state possesses, but so far impossible to gain an accurate measure of the morale,
aptitudes or national character of the population or the deployment and effectiveness of
the fighters in changing and unforeseen situation
.
4
Because national power and Its indexes are in different areas ,so accessing a
counterbalanced quantitative pattern and determining their quantitative co-efficient is
hard.
5

1-Tellis . et al. op. cit , p.38
2- Muir. op.cit ,P. 277
3.Ibid
4-Muir. op.cit ,p.148
5-Hafeznia, 2006, op.cit , p.284

The elements of power continually interact with one another and cannot be evaluated
in isolation ;for example ,an efficient military machine may be compromised by
incompetent government intervention, or a resource may be held in quantities far in
excess of the demand for it, as with hydroelectric potential in norway
The calculation of an index of state power would be impossible even if the individual
elements of state power could each be measured, since a value for efficient government
could not be equated with one for ,say, coal production.
1

As Frankel has pointed out that the influence exerted in international affairs need not
correspond to state power; in the late 1920s the USA could be rank has the most
powerful state followed by Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Italy, Japan, while
France,s influence in international affairs was far greater than that of the USA, which
would on this count have been placed near the foot of this list.
2

In spite of the existence of different, and sometimes contradictory, viewpoints, it is not
surprising that most theoreticians in the field of international relations and similar areas
have tried to propose models or other tools of calculating the national capabilities of
countries. This is because power is the center and foundation of international relations.
3
In
continue, we will investigate the single-variable and multi-variable approaches for
evaluation of power of countries.

Single Variable and Multi Variable (Integrated) Approaches to Measure National
Power:
Specialists and experts of different fields have attempted to invent methods with single
variable and or multi variables to determine the countries' situation in the global system and
also to compare them with each other. All of them have ranked and compared the countries
from a multi or limited variable perspective but it has never reflected the countries complete
and extensive power.
4
Despite this, many efforts are made to measure the national power of

1-Muir. op.cit ,p.148
2 -Frankel. op.cit , p.178
3-Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.25
4 -Hafeznia. 2006, op.cit ,p.284

countries in the form of single or multi variable pattern. In continue, we will investigate the
single-variable and multi-variable approaches for evaluation of power of countries.

A) Single Variable Approaches to Measure National Power:
In the evaluation of national power some scientists, after assessing the effect of different
indexes have emphasized on one index for measuring national power and national power
and have measure other countries based on that. Military expenditure ,the size of aemed
forces and Gross National Product are frequently used as indicators of national power in
empirical studies
1
.In general one variable approaches to evaluating national power can be
divided into two groups: the first group is specialists who recognize military indexes as
symbols of power. Experts like Inis Claude and Karl Deutsch who emphasized on military
forces; Norman Alcock on military costs and George Modelski and William Thompson on
measuring the navy as an important index to measure national power.
2
The second group is
experts who state that economical factors are more important and have recognized them as
standards on which national power can be measured. Among these experts we can name
Kingsley Davis, the demographer, specialized in political sciences that recognized national
income as the most important factor in determining power.
3
Also Joshua Goldstein who
recognized Gross National Production as the most important single variable factor in
national power.
4
Table 6. shows different specialists and the type of indexes used by them.

Table 6 : Single Variable Approaches to Evaluating National Power

1-Jeffry. op.cit.p.55
2-Tellis,& Others. op.cit.p.33
3-Ibid
4-Joshua.s. Goldstein, International Relations. New York, Longman, 1999,p.59

Source: zarghani:2009,p.147

The most important criticism that can be accepted about single variable approaches
are that these types of single variables have a limited outlook towards national power and
cannot express the real national power of states and their real situation in the global geo-
political system. In other words, national power has different economical, political, military,
social, Territorial and perspectives; therefore any index or model which only measures
one certain aspect for example the military aspect or military power or has even measured
them from one aspect is not realistic and can't be a suitable standard to measure national
power. For example, even if oil income has increased the gross national production in
countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela there is no relationship between this index
and other indexes of national power. Based on this we cannot measure the national power of
countries by only evaluating this variable.
1

1-M.kelly.Kadera, Measuring National Power, International Interactions, Taylor &Francis,2004, p.226

The existence of these problems has led many scholars to criticize these factors. Among
these scholars, one can mention Morgentau who had warned against using single-variable
factors for evaluation of national power and had called it unscientific. On the other hand,
due to weaknesses of single-variable factors in evaluation of different aspects of
capabilities, we nowadays witness that combined factors have replaced single-variable
factors in evaluation of different aspects of development and capabilities of countries.
Therefore, in recent years, international and regional economic and social organizations
such as UNESCO, WORLD BANK, IMF, and etc. emphasize on avoiding single-variable
factors such as gross national income and using combined factors such as human
development in calculation of development and evaluation of different aspects of countries
power.
1
In sum, single-variables not only are not suitable for evaluation of national power
of countries, but scholars are seriously doubtful about using them for calculating a particular
aspect of capabilities such as economic power of countries.

B) Multi Variable (Integrated) Approaches to Measure National Power:
One of the other methods of measuring national power is by using multi variables and
integrating them and designing a multi variable model. Designing integrated models (multi
variable) by specialists is done in two different types: mathematical models and conceptual
ones. In integrated mathematical models, first of all the variables are chosen and then by
designing a mathematical formula the type of relationship for the variable integration is
determined. Finally, based on this mathematical model the national power of countries is
measured. For example, we can observe models planned by Clifford German and fucks 2 In
the second type meaning conceptual models, a few variables are chosen by the designer as
the most factors affecting national power and then the countries' power are placed in that
group of variables based on their scores and therefore evaluated. In this method a certain
mathematical formula, that shows the type of integration and relation is not presented.
Among these models, which we can point out, are the models of Weyne ferris
2
and Richard
Muir and Saul Cohen.
3
Some of these models mention below:

2-Muir,op.cit , p.49

2-Tellis. op.cit, p.36
3-Cohen. op.cit, p.48

Model of Klaus Knorr:
The earliest and perhaps most influential multivariable measure was advanced in 1956 by
Klaus Knorr in his classic work, The War Potential of Nations. Seeking to ascertain the
ability of a country to provide quantities of military manpower and supplies in the event of
war.
1
.Knorr was drawn to a wide variety of factors that could be summarized by the
categories of economic capacity, administrative competence, and motivation for war.
Despite identifying numerous critical ingredients under each of these categories, Knorr did
not provide any model to suggest how these factors might be combined. His work was
nonetheless seminal in that it provided the foundations on which several theorists would
later develop alternate solutions.

Model of Clifford German :
A complex nonlinear multivariable index that attempted to both identify discrete variables
and specify their interrelationships came in 1960 with the work of Clifford German, who
considered twenty-six relevant variables .German produced a world power index that took
the following form:

where N is nuclear capability, L is land, P is population, I is the industrial base, and M is
military size.
2
(German,1960,pp.138140) Each of these variables was further broken down
into a series of factors, each of which was scored by a variety of criteria pertinent to the
factor concerned. After reviewing this model, Merritt and Zinnes concluded that of all the
power indexes considered, the German index is the most complex. It consists of a multitude
of variables, both summational and syntality, a series of scoring schemes, and several
instances in which judgments must be made.
3

The positive and negative aspects of this model can be described as:

1 -Tellis. op.cit, p.27
2-Clifford. German, A Tentative Evaluation of World Power, Journal of Conflict
Resolution, Vol. 4 (1960) pp. 138144.

1. The most important positive feature of the model is its relative comprehensiveness
because of the variety of the used variables. For instance, industrial ground is itself
gained from combining variables of production of alloy, coal, oil and
hydroelectricity.
2. Avoiding the use the quality variables and using quantity variables is another positive
feature of this model.
3. Although this model is considered comprehensive due to the variety of variables, and
although it is described by Merit and Ziner to be the most complicated model among
all proposed models
1
, it still ignores many of the aspects of power. For instance,
cultural, social, economic variables are either ignored or have not received enough
attention.
4. The main problem with this model and almost all proposed models-which is out of
the control of designers- is that these models were designed some decades ago and
thus they do not accord with the new factors and variables that are nowadays
considered the criteria of power for a country. Gross variables such as population,
production of iron, production of coal and etc. used to be important indicatives of
national power in the past, however, with regard to rapid changes in the present era,
they are of less importance nowadays and now technological variables such as Nano-
technology, Bio-technology, information and communication and etc. are better able
to indicate national power
2
.

Model of Wilhelm Fucks:
A similar nonlinear (but somewhat simpler) multivariable index was subsequently proposed
by Wilhelm Fucks in1965. Fucks formula was
3:

Fucks sought to derive national power from three sum mational variablespopulation size
(p), energy production (z), and steel production (z1)arranged in one of nine formulas for

1-Ibid. p.30
2 -zarghani. (2009),op.cit, p.155
3-Muir. op.cit, p.149

measuring national power (M), all of which were variants of one another and took the form
of M = p2z, M = p3/2z, etc
.
1
It seems the best criticism for this model has been stated by Richard Muir, the political
geographician. He believes that the power of a country is more comprehensive to be gained
by investigating the relationship between two variables of GDP and population.

Model of Muir:
Richard Muir proposed this model for measure state power
2
:

National power= Area + population +steel production +Army +ICBM and polaris-type
missiles
Based on these model measured power of states and them classify to five level include:
Superpower, Near- Superpower, Great powers, powers and Mini powers .Table 7 .shows
ranking of countries:

Table 7:Ranking state power

2 -Muir. op.cit, p.149

Source:Muir,op. cit, p.14

Model of Norman Alcock and Alan Newcombe:
In contrast to the nonlinear measures of German and Fucks, Norman Alcock and Alan
Newcombe in 1970 advanced a straightforward linear index of popular perceptions of
national power that also utilized multiple variables. Using regression analyses on three
variables, per capita GNP, population, and population density, they attempted to rank the
relative power of scores of countries in the context of popular perceptions of national
strength.

Model of David Singer:
A similar linear index of capabilities, but one focusing on real national assets as opposed to
the perception of those assets, was devised by J. David Singers Correlates of War project
and published in 1972. population (understood both in terms of total and levels of urban
population), industrial capacity (understood in terms of energy consumption and iron and
steel production), and military capabilities (understood in terms of military expenditures and

force size) were added up to provide values for a particular country, which were then
assessed as a percentage of the global total.
1

Model of Wayne Ferris:
Another effort along similar lines was pursued by Wayne Ferris, who constructed an index
in 1973 that sought to provide scores on the capabilities of nearly all states in the system
relative to nearly all other states. during the period 18501966. This effort focused on six
variablesland area, total population, government revenue, defense expenditures, value of
international trade, and the size of the armed forcesin an effort to produce a historical
comparison of international power for literally scores of countries.
2

Criticism of the models of Alcock and Newcombe, Singer, Feris:
Each of the abovementioned scholars has tried to evaluate national power on the basis of a
number of limited variables in a particular area. Alcock and Newcombe emphasized on
three variables of GDP, population per capita, and population density; David Singer
emphasized on variables of population, consumption of energy, production of alloy, cost
and number of military forces; Vein Feris emphasized on expansion of the land, income of
the government, costs of defense, volume of international trade, and size of armed forces;
Richard Muir emphasized on expansion, population, production of alloy, number of
personnel in the army, number of shuttles as the factors of national power.

Like Fucks model and other models that consider a few limited variables the criteria for
evaluation of the national power of countries and on the basis of such scores ranked
countries national power, the criticism against this model is that national power of countries
is much more comprehensive than being able to be evaluated on the basis of a number of
limited variables and by emphasizing only one or two particular aspects such as population,
military expenses, and production of alloy. In addition, since these models were proposed in
early 70s and before that Alcock and Newcombe, 1970, David Singer, 1972, Vein Feris,
1973, Richard Muir, 1975), they emphasize on those variables that used to be the criteria for
determining the national power of countries in that time. It is obvious that production of iron

2-Ibid. p.36

and number of personnel in the army were proper criteria for evaluation of national power
of a country in the 70s. However, with regard to rapid scientific and technological advances
in the world and the importance of new industries and technologies, the variables related to
such areas as Nano-technology, Bio-technology, and communication and information
technology are now of greater importance in evaluation of national power of countries.
Indeed, this does not mean that such variables as expansion of the country, population,
industrial productions, which were important in the past, are no longer considered valuable
in contributing to power of a country.
1

Model of Ray Cline:
among the more widely recognized indexes of national power was the one devised by Ray
Cline in 1975. This nonlinear, multivariable index attempted to integrate both capabilities
and commitment to create a formula that would rank order the perceived power of states.
Clines formula was:

where C is critical mass (including population and territory), E is economic capacity
(including income plus energy plus nonfuel minerals plus manufacturing plus food plus
trade), M is military capacity (including the strategic balance plus combat capabilities plus a
bonus for effort), S is the national strategy coefficient, and W is national will (including the
level of national integration, the strength of leadership, and the relevance of strategy to the
national interest). The formula won a wide readership both in academia and within the
defense community, and some variants of it were used to develop the U.S. Armys estimates
of long-range trends in the international system.
2

The positive and negative aspects of this formula can be described as:
1. Using different variables and more importantly, choosing the variables from different
fields of nature, economy, politics, military, society and etc. are considered the most
important strength of this model.

1-Zarghani. (2009),op.cit, p.159

2. The existence of quality variables such as national integrity, leadership capability,
strategic balance, etc. in the model without proposing a solution for changing them
into quantity ones is considered the most important weakness of this model.
3. Just like the majority of the models, this model has just emphasized on positive
variables and has ignored negative variables. This is considered a weakness because
principally national power is the combination and mathematical sum of positive and
negative points of the elements and foundations of a country.
1

Model of Saul, b.Cohen:
Saul,b.Cohen, Based on ten factors of investment, agricultural production, industrial
production, export, developmental research, number of scientists, number of engineers,
reduction of foreign debts, scientific exchange, and number of pattern inventions, designed
a pattern to evaluate national power of countries.
2

In comparison to previous models, cohens model is superior in regard to variety of the used
variables, particularly such modern variables as number of discoveries, developmental
researches, number of scientists, etc. Moreover, it has more exact methods of calculation in
comparison to previous models. However, in regard to the limited number of variables (10
variables) it can be said that cohens model is far from being a comprehensive model of
national power.

Model of AshleY Tellis et.al:
Another model was also proposed by Ashli Telis et al in 2000. In this model, they
considered three factors of national resources, national performance, and military capability
influential in creating national power. Each factor itself was divided into other factors and

1 -Zarghani. 2009, op.cit, p.157
2 -Cohen, op.cit, p.43

each factor constituted various variables. On this basis, they designed the model of national
power as follows:
1

Figure 9: A Revised View of National Power

source:Telis,et al. op.cit, p.46

This model is superior to others due tits numerous variables and attention to selecting
variables from all realms of power (economic, political, natural, military, cultural, social,
etc). However, there are three criticisms against it:

1. In spite of having numerous new variables, this model has not provided a method to
know how they should be combined and evaluated.
2. Designers of the model claim that it has been designed to evaluate the national power
of goal countries (the countries that will probably be competitors of the US in the
future). Therefore, the variables which were used just had information for those
certain countries. Therefore, there is not universal data for the majority of the
variables used in the model and so using this model it is not possible to evaluate and
compare national power of all countries of the world. This can be a bug shortcoming
in this model. In more exact words, since the most important aim behind designing
the model of evaluation of national power is comparison of the power of almost all
countries of the world and drawing the structure of universal geopolitical system, and

1-Telis. et al. op.cit, p.46

since this model can only compare a few number of countries, it cannot be a
comprehensible model for evaluating national power of countries.
3. The importance of the variables in regard to one another is not clear. In fact, since no
model has been proposed, all variables have equal value.
1

Table 8, shows the most important conceptual integrated models (without presenting the
mathematical formula):

Table 8: Number and Type of Variables Used in Conceptual Integrated Models

Source: zarghani:2009,op. cit, p.148

1-Zarghani. 2008, op.cit, p.157

General Criticism and Evaluation of models:
Each of the abovementioned models were criticized and analyzed in separation.
However, from a general point of view, the traditional approaches and the current
models of national power have some forms:

A. These three concerns acquire special resonance given the fact that countries like the
Soviet Union and Iraq, which were classified as relatively significant powers by
some aggregate indicators of capability, ultimately either collapsed through internal
enervation or proved to be utterly ineffectual when their capabilities were put to the
test in war. Both these examples suggest that appreciating the true basis of national
power may require not merely a meticulous detailing of tangible military assets such
as force inventories and logistics capabilities, but also an assessment of other
intangible elements like training, doctrine, leadership, experience, readiness, and
integrative skill.
1

B. Current criteria for evaluating power mainly emphasize the variables that left a
major effect on the national power of countries in a particular time period. For
instance, they emphasize such variables as production of iron and alloy, amount of
consumed energy, the amount of food, and etc. These factors were considered
significant in previous decades and in the industrial period. Therefore, these models
lack strategic variables which accord with contemporary era. For example, the
variables of Nanotechnology, environmental technology, communication and
information technology, which are all of great importance in the 21
st
century, can
rarely be seen in these models. Therefore, the abovementioned models have the
necessary, although insufficient, variables.
2

C. The most traditional approaches of the sort identified above sought to rank order the
status of countries in terms of their capacity for war. The objective in most cases,
thus, consisted of charting the international warrant of precedence, or the hierarchy
of capabilities in the international system, based on the premise that the capacity for

1-Ibid, p.6
2-Zarghani. (2009), op. cit , p.155

war was what ultimately distinguished the power of one country from another.
1
Meanwhile, regarding the recent changes in the world, among the five dimensions
of power, economic factors are in the first position and the military factors are in the
last position. Moreover, the nature of war itself has undergone major changes and the
military capabilities and variables of previous decades (such as number of personnel
in the army) can no longer be considered a proper criterion for evaluation of military
capabilities of a country.
2

D. Traditional approaches of evaluation of power, while focusing on the ranking of
countries, instead of presenting a deep image, present a wide image that does not
include the global distribution of capabilities and cannot provide an exact
investigation along with details for any country.

E. although it seems that evaluation and calculation of quality and invisible factors
affecting national power is still a difficult and impossible task, all models under
investigation have failed to change the quality factors to quantity factors and then
considering them in the evaluation of national power of countries. It should be noted
that these factors, although it is not possible to be evaluated, are of great importance

F. most of the indices used in the traditional indexes of power are invariably gross
indices. Even measures of military capability largely consist of gross measures like
the size of inventory or the numbers of specific pieces of equipment. Both the assets
counted and the resources identified as salient are clearly those that acquired
significance in the industrial age, when variables like the level of steel production,
the extent of energy consumed, and the size of food stocks mattered much more than
they had before.

in brief, The most important criticisms that are about aforesaid models include:
1- Limited number of variables used in the models

1-Tellis. et al. op. cit , p.31
2-Zarghani. (2009), op. cit , p.157

2- Lack of stability in the model based on variable variety and emphasizing on one certain
power aspect
3- Lack of proportion in the used variables with the strategically conformed variables in the
current time
4- The effect of opinions and personal viewpoints of the designer on the model
5- Using some qualitative variables without presenting methods to use them quantitively
6- Emphasis in using variables with positive role in power and not paying attention to
variables with a negative role
7- Lack of global data about variable and states

The suggested model for Measurement of national power:
Based on the findings obtained by evaluating previous national power measurement
models, in this research, a new model is presented and efforts have been done for it not to
have the faults above. With regard to the results gained from investigation of models of
evaluation of national power, at least five problems can be attributed to these models:
1. Lack of comprehensibility of the model in regard to number and variety of the
variables
2. The effect of personal viewpoints and tendencies of the designer on the model of
evaluation of national power and not using the opinions of the scholars of other fields
and majors particularly in regard to the fact that national power is a multi-
dimensional notion and has different economic, political, social, military and other
aspects. Thus understanding the importance and role of each of these factors of
national power requires a special skill.
3. Using some quality variables without presenting the method of changing them into
quantity ones.
4. Emphasizing the use of those variables that have positive performance and
disregarding the variables that have a negative performance.

5. Lack of compatibility between the variables used in the models and the realities of
the present era.

In order to resolve these problems, the following issues need to be considered in the design
of a new model:
1-Using an almost comprehensive conceptual model of national power:
National power has different aspects such as political, economic, military, cultural, and
social. Thus, any model of evaluation of national power must include the different
dimensions of national power. Reviewing the previous models, one can realize that except
one or two models, others lacked the necessary comprehensiveness. On this basis, in order
to evaluate national power, this research uses Hafiznias model because of using different
variables in the framework of nine factors and thus its comprehensiveness in comparison to
previous models.

Figure 10 : Model with nine factors of national power

Source: Zarghani,2007,p.148

2-Emphasis on using the viewpoints of scholars in collecting the variables of each
factor referring to two main resources:
As it can be seen in the above model, nine main factors were predicted in the model of
evaluation of national power. The next step was to determine the variables and the number
of variables in each factor. In collecting the variables of each factor, two main resources
were considered so to take advantage of the opinions of other experts as well as to prevent
the interference of the interests of the designer in the choice of variables. These two sources
were:

1) Theories by those experts and professional who have introduced the variables and
factors forming national power. In this relation, 28 theories by different scholars
were investigated. Each of these scholars introduced a number of the variables as the
most important factors affecting national power. In other words, the most important
factors of national power were investigated. Using these theories, the most important
variables affecting national power were chosen.
2) Referring to global databanks
The second source used for collecting the data affecting national power were global
databanks such as World Bank, UNESCO, IMF as well as referring to related websites.
This was done with two objectives:
The first objective was to recognize the new variables and factors which are used in
these organizations for evaluation of different capabilities of countries in economic,
political, social, and other aspects. The second objective was to identify the variables for
which global data is available. It should be mentioned that since the objective of this
study is designing a model for evaluation of national power of different countries, those
variables must be emphasized that there is universal data available for them. Therefore,
the series of variables that were collected using the opinions of scholars and global
databanks were investigated in regard to the existence of universal data and thus some
variables and factors were ignored.

3-Avoiding a single-dimensional view at national power and emphasis on using the
opinion of different experts by using Delphi method:

Another major problem with most of previous models of evaluation of national power was
the single-dimensional view towards national power arising from the particular point of
view of the designer of the model. For instance, if the designer belonged to the military, the
major part of the basics and sources of national power were allocated to military factors and
other factors were ignored or were not given enough attention. This might also be true of an
economist, a sociologist, or a geographician. However, the variables affecting national
power belong to different fields such as land, economy, society, culture, science, military,
etc. and thus they all must be included when evaluating national power. Ignoring any of
these dimensions will eventually cause shortcomings in the final outcome. Therefore, in
order to avoid a single-dimensional view towards national power and in order to regard all
different dimensions of national power, on one hand, and to prevent the interference of a
particular point of view of the designer in the final model, on the other hand, this study used
the Delphi method and reference to opinions of different scholars in its selection of the main
variables of each factor as well as in identification of the multiple factor of each factor and
variable. The identification of the variables affecting national power in the economic area is
definitely much more scientific than by scientists of other fields. This is also true about
other variables such as military, geographical, and etc.

4-Using quantative variables or changing quality variables to quantity ones:
Another problem with previous models was using quality variables without proposing a
method for changing them into quantity ones. Since the objective of this research is
designing a model for evaluation of national power of countries, using incalculable quality
variables is an important obstacle towards achieving such an objective. Therefore, it has
been attempted to transform quality variables into operational and calculable factors as
much as possible. For instance, in order to evaluate the amount of political stability, number
of coup dtats and in order to evaluate the governments dependence on peoples power,
the elected or selected authorities are to be considered. Otherwise, because of the emphasis
on the use of quantity variables, quality variables are not used in the model.

5-Using the variables that have combined positive and negative performance:
National power is the combination and mathematical sum of the positive and negative
aspects of the elements and foundations of a country. It is active and is comprehensible in

relation to other nations and countries. On this basis, this study uses variables with positive
and negative performance (in national power) in order to design a model for evaluation of
national power. The objective behind this has been to combine the causes of power and
weakness and to evaluate national power by mathematical sum of the positive and negative
aspects of their performance. Therefore, in each of the nine factors, there are a number of
variables with negative performance in national power. It should be mentioned that the
positive and negative performance of a variable in national power is considered relative in
some variables. In exact words, some factors and variables such as population size might
have positive performance in one country and negative performance in another one. For
instance, the amounts of debts of a country cannot always be regarded as a negative factor
as this debt and international financial resources in one country might be spent in
commercial and production areas and thus bring a country much more benefits. In regard to
another country, this loan might have been spent on service and consumption areas and thus
does not bring any financial benefit for that country.

6-Using strategic variables that are compatible with present age:
In any period of time and in accordance with conditions of time, a number of factors and
variables which form national power, have strategic value and thus perform a vital role in
evaluating the power of countries. For instance, in the industrial period, such variables as
production of iron and alloy, production and consumption of energy, and etc. all played
significant roles in the power of a country. However, in the present era (in the post-
industrial period) these variables do not have their previous importance and thus the
variables of such areas as biotechnology, nano-technology, communication and information
technology have a significant role in evaluation of countries power. On this basis, this
study uses the variables of the previous models while referring to different sources of
modern variables that have strategic value in the contemporary era. For instance, digital
access is one of these variables which can clearly show the capabilities of countries in the
field of communication and information technology.

7-choosing the variables that have universal data
The objective behind designing a model for evaluation of national power is evaluation of the
power of countries and drawing the geopolitical structure of the universe. This cannot be

achieved unless there is information and data for the selected variables of almost all
countries of the world. In fact, attempts have been made to collect the data and information
from an international and reliable source.

Chapter Five:

Research Methodology and Stages of Model Presentation:

Evaluating and measuring countries' national power to determine the country's status in the
global geo-political system and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the
main concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international
relations. From this aspect, many specialists attempted many efforts to evaluate national
power by means of creating methods and single variable and multi-variable models,
whereas all of them have ranked many countries from a multi-variable or limited aspect but
it has never reflected the countries extensive and complete power. In this research, based on
the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is
presented to measure national power. The details of the research methodology are explained
in the 13 stages:

1- Explaining and criticizing Theoretical Foundations and Statements Related to
Factors and Variables:
In this stage, theoretical topics like power definitions, national power, foundations and
power sources and methods to measure power were criticizited and evaluated. The

information in this stage was obtained from the library study methods and usage of books,
magazines, quarterly periodicals and the internet.

2- Choosing a theoretical Model as the Main Foundation for the model design:
In this stage, 28 theoretical models, which were about foundations and sources of national
power and were presented by national and international specialists considered and
evaluated.Then The theoretical model, presented by Hafeznia,which was based on a number
and variety of variables, paying attention to different aspects of national power, emphasis on
negative and positive role of variables ,emphasis on new aspects of power was selected as
the foundation of designing a model for measurement of national power. Hafeznia in his
theoretical model emphasizes on nine factors as the main sources of national power of the
states (includes: Economical, territorial, political, scientific and technological, social,
cultural, military, astro-space and trans-national factors.
1

3- Gathering Variables and Indexes Effective on National Power:
In this stage, a total of 280 variables and indexes effective on national power were gathered
by referring to the four resources below:
a) Referring to 28 theories about foundations and elements of national power
b) Referring to data banks of institutions and international institutions like the World Bank,
Unesco, Military Balance and
c) Referring to internet sites related to the topic
d) Using the suggestions of different experts and specialists by interview and survey

4- Sifting the Variables:
Based on the main purpose of the research namely designing a model to measure national
power of countries, the gathered variables were measured and sifted based on the three
standards below:
- Standard and Global Data for them
- Quantitivity of variables or potential to change them to quantities

1-Hafeznia. 2006,p.141

- Availability of variables
Based on this from 280 variables 130 variables were omitted. The 150 remaining variables
were categorized in the form of theoretical model nine factors: Economical, political,
military, social and so

5-Evaluating and Determining the Importance (measuring variables) based on the
Delphi Method:
In this stage based on the Delphi method and to obtain the opinions of experts about the
effect of variables and indexes on national power a survey was prepared based on the
chosen variables (150 remaining variables). The survey was a closed survey with a multiple
answer score in which, each of the nine factors affecting national power were presented
separately and the experts taking the survey were asked to choose from among the answers
of: very little, little, average, a lot and very much. In the distribution of the survey, many
efforts were done so that there would be proportion between the types of questions of each
factor with the expertise of the specialists. For example, only professors of political
geography, political sciences and international relations answered questions related to
political factors.

6-Statistical Evaluation of the Survey Results:
For a statistical evaluation of the survey results, also to categorize the variables, the (SPSS)
and (Sas) statistical software's were used. In addition, to evaluate the data the descriptive
and comprehensive statistical methods were used. In the comprehensive statistics, the three
methods below were used:
1) Using the alpha Crone Bach co-efficient to evaluate the reliability of the research survey
1

2) Testing the validity of the questions by emphasizing on Factor Analysis
3) Using the Factor Analysis method to choose superior variables

1 -Alireza. Neghaban, Management of Methodol ogy by SPSS,Tehran, Gahd of University press, 2003, p.18

7- Choosing Superior Variables by Using the Factor Analysis Method:
Because of the extensive research and large number of variables and effective indexes on
national power in the form of nine factors and because of the positive usage of the experts'
suggestions who answered this survey, we used the Factor Analysis method to categorize
and choose superior variables. In this method, the relations between a large number of
variables are measured evaluated by a few random, unobservable qualities which are called
factors and also co-variance
1
.From among 150 variables, 87 variables were chosen based on
data obtained from the Factor Analysis method in which they had the most effect on
national power. The 87 variables were considered as the final variables used in the national
power measurement model.

8- Designing the First Model Based on the Matrix Method:
The chosen variables (by the Factor analysis method), were the foundations for designing
the national power measurement model. The way to measure national power was by using
the matrix method. In this method, two-dimensional charts were used. In one dimension
were the names of the countries and in the other charts containing names of indexes and
variables. Then, related amounts were placed in the chart and finally the numbers were
added to each other by algebra and the amount of national power for each state was
determined
2
.

9- Entering gathered data of states in the Matrix Chart:
The gathered data about 140 countries or states and 87 variables was entered in the matrix.
The information about 140 countries was placed in the rows and the information related to
the 87 variables in the columns. In order to calculate the countries' scores faster and more
precisely, the matrix was drawn in a computer by using the Excel software and the
information about variables and countries was placed in nine separate boxes in the matrix.
About the 87 variables and 140 countries, a chart with 12000 boxes was created and 12000
data was recorded in it.

1 -Richard. Janston, statistical analysys, Transled by Hosienali Niromand, Mashhad University,1999, p.54
2 - Hafeznia. (2006) ,op.cit , P.301

10- Changing Variable Amounts to Scores:
One of the most important and at the same time most difficult stages in designing the
national power measurement model, was the proportioning and in other words standardizing
of scoring methods to variables and indexes. Because the components and variables were
various and were placed in different fields and areas, accessing the quantitative counter
balancing pattern and determining the amounts and quantitative co-efficient for them was
very hard. Measuring all the power which is a product of all factors and various variables is
in need of changing each of the variables to equal sizes and amounts so that there will be a
chance for their integration
1
. If by any chance there is a small mistake in this stage, it can
cause an unrealistic calculation and illogical increase or decrease of the countries' scores
and in the end can cause big problems in comparing the national power of countries. In
order to give scores to the variables and indexes, in this research the four different methods
below were used:

a) The method of Proportional Percentage:
In this method the score of each country is based on it's share in the overall amount of
variables. For example, total Nano technological papers of the world published in the
journals with ISI index at 2005 have been :41665 and the number of such paper for Iran
have been:53.so the proportional Percentage of iran has been equal to:0/127

b) Morris's Index method
The second method is a method that is called the Index method in this research and it is
derived from the World Bank's methods in creating indexes like human development index.
The basis of this method is that in order to determine an index from a variable, we measure
it's maximum and minimum amount and then based on each number related to each country
and the below formula, we calculate to number related to that variable by an index:

1-Ibid. p. 284

c) Intentional Method:
In this method, which is about different variables and the average of that variable, a number
is considered as the base and than the obtained number of countries about each variable is
measured based on that. For example, about the per capita income of countries, for every
$1000 of per capita income a positive score is considered and then the per capita income of
countries is scored based on that.

d) Using the Indexes own numbers as a score:
The fourth method is usually used with indexes which have been used in the model.
Because indexes like human development and digital availability are the achievements
gained by experts throughout the years, therefore it seems as if it is better that each country's
number about each index, be considered as that country's score for that index. So, by
emphasizing on the efforts in creating that index, we will prevent and unrealistic
calculations about the score. For example, the number related to Iran about human
development is 0.732; in this method 0.732 is considered as the score for Iran.

11- Designing a New Matrix Based on Variable Scores:
After the amounts relating to variables and indexes are changed to scores by using the four
previous methods, a new matrix is designed where scores of variables replace numbers of
variables. Like the previous chart, this chart is also drawn in the computer by using the
Excel software and the scores of 140 countries about 87 variables are recorded in it.

12- The algebraic addition of positive and negative scores of variables in each factor
and determining the total amount of scores in each factor:
By calculating the scores according to algebraic ways related to variables of each factor, the
final scores of countries about each factor are determined. For example, by consideration of
positive or negative role of variable in calculating (algebraic) the scores of the 12
economical variable indexes, the total scores of all countries in the economical factor is
determined:

Economical factor score = Gross national production score + the score of attracting foreign
investment + score of all financial sources score of negative trade rate and

13- calculating the Nine factor Scores and Determining the National Power of
Countries:
After determining the score of each country about each of the nine indexes, the total score
of countries in the nine factor is calculated, based on the simple lineal model below which is
based on the algebraic addition of the nine factor. Therefore, the number obtained by adding
the nine factor shows the amount of the national power of countries. Based on this number
we can construct a power structure for the world and compare the national power of
countries in each of the factor separately based on the total score of the nine factor (national
power).

Table 9 : Simple Lineal Model to Measuring National Power:

Source:Zarghani,2009.p.207

Chapter Six:

Measuring National Power of countries

This chapter investigated the power of countries (140 countries) in regard to the new
designed model and in the frame of nine factor. This factors Includes :scientific, economic,
social, Territory , cultural, political ,Trans-national, Astro-space and military. The
methodology consists of expressing the variables of each factor using the analysis method.
Then, on the basis of the sum of scores of variables of each factor, power of countries in that
particular factor, for instance, economic factor, will be determined and then the countries
will be ranked ..In addition, ten superior countries in each factor will be shown using
figured and maps. At the end, the scores of different countries in the world in the nine
factors (of national power) will be compared and the structure of power in the world will be
drawn. Ten top countries in regard to national power have been shown in the map.

Measuring and Ranking Countries Based on the Nine factor:
In this section the study's results are measured based on the national power measurement
model about each factor:

1- Ranking national Power Based on Scientific and Technological factorIndexes:
In the scientific and technological index, 12 variables were chosen by the Factor Analysis
method. Choosing these variables are based on the answered survey just like the other factor
which were chosen by the Factor Analysis method. It means that according to the experts
answering the survey, from among the 22 variables presented in the scientific index, 12
variables have the most effect on the national power of countries. These 12 variables are:

Table 10: variables of Scientific and Technological factor:


Based on the obtained scores in Scientific and Technological factor has been shown in
the table 11, United States of America (U.S.A) has the number one rank in the world with a
score of 100 and the next ranks, respectively are: Japan, Germany, United kingdom, Chaina,
France, Russia, Canada, South Korea, Belgium. Like most of the factors the difference
between the countries in first and second ranks are a lot and approximately 2 times more

Table 11:Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor

Source: Zarghani, 2009.p.241

Map 1 : Top ten powers in the Scientific and Technological factor

2- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on Economical factor:
The chosen variables, which are based on the Factor Analysis method in the 11 economical
factor are shown in the table below:
Table 12: variables of Economical factor:


In the economical factor as has been shown in table 12 ,the U.S.A has the highest score
(100) and China, Japan, , Germany, England, Canada, France, Australia, Russia and Italy
are the next top countries ranking 2 to 10. In the economical factor, four variables have
negative effect (degree of unemployment, share of imported foods from the total amount of
foods, negative trade rate and the liberalized economical index).table 13,shows the top ten
countries in the economical factor.

Table 13 :Top ten powers in the Economical factor


Map 2: Top ten powers in the Economical factor

3- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Social factor:
The social index consists of 11 variables, which have been chosen from among 23
variables by using the Factor Analysis method .From among the final chosen variables,
three variables have negative impact. This 11 variables shown in table 14:

Table 14: variables of Social factor:


In the social factor as has been shown in table 15, USA with 100 score has the first rank and
the next ranks, respectively are: China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Canada, Belgium and
Australia.

Table 15:Top ten powers in the Social factor

Source: Zarghani , 2009.p.21

Map 3: Top ten powers in the Social factor

4- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Territorial factor:
The territorial factor consists of 11 variables which, based on the experts who answered the
survey had the most effect on national power and were chosen based on the Factor Analysis
method. This variables shown in table 16:
Table 16: variables of Territorial factor


In the Territorial factor as has been shown in table 17, the U.S stands in the highest position
with a score of 100. Countries like Russia ,Canada , Australia, china, Brazil, Kazakhstan
,India ,Norway and iran are the countries ranking two to nine

Table 17:Top ten powers in the Territorial factor


Map 4: Top ten powers in the Territorial factor

5- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Cultural factor:
As it is shown in the below, the cultural factor consists of 10 variables. In this index, two
variables have a negative role. This variables shown in table 18 :

Table 18: variables of Cultural factor:


In the cultural factor ranking the powers is in such a way that the U.S stands at the
highest position with a score of 100 and countries like England, France, Spain, Japan,

Germany, Italy, China ,Russia and Sweden are the next top ten countries. The score
difference between the first country and the next top ten countries is very small and this
exists in the countries other countries, opposed to indexes like military and Astro-space
factors in which the difference was very much. In addition, the difference between the top
ten countries and the rest of the countries was a lot. About the cultural factor, first of all
there isnt a big difference between the first country and the next top tan countries and
second of all the decrease in the score (to the lowest rank) has a moderate decreasing pace.
Table 19, shows the top ten countries according to cultural factor:
Table 19:Top ten powers in the Cultural factor

Map 5: Top ten powers in the Cultural factor

6- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Political-Governmental factor:
The political-governmental factor consists of 10 variables , which have been chosen from
among 14 variables by using the Factor Analysis method. This variables shows in table 20.

Table 20: variables of the Political factor


In the political factor, as has been shown in table opposed to the rest of the factors the U.S
is not only in the first rank, but does not stand in any of the top ten ranks. In the political
factor Finland is in the first position with a score of 100 and Denmark, Swedes, Norway,
Switzerland Netherlands, Australia, Austria ,New Zealand and United Kingdom are
respectively in the next top ten positions .table 21, shows top ten countries in the political
factor.
Table 21:Top ten powers in the Political factor


Map 6: Top ten powers in the the Political factor

7- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Trans-National factor:
The Trans-National factor has 10 variables. The variables of Trans-National factor are
various, to a point where they are extended throughout a large scale of topics, from

political-trading to sports. The method used to score Trans-National factor is mainly based
on the percentage share method . table 22, shows chosen variables in the Trans-National.

Table 22: variables of the Trans-National factor:


As it is shown in table 23, in this factor, the U.S stands in the first position with a score of
100 and China, France,UK, Russia, Germany, Japan,Canada ,Italy and Spain stand in the
positions ranking 2 to 10.

Table 23:Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor


Map 7: Top ten powers in the Trans-National factor

8- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Astro-space factor
In general, the Astro-space factor has 4 variables. Because of the limited number of Astro
space variables, there is no need to use the Factor Analysis method. This variables shows in
table 24.
Table 24: variables of the Astro-space factor:

In the Astro-space factor, only 39 countries have the capability and the other 100 countries
have not scored any point in this factor. Among these 39 countries as it has been shown in

table 25,United State has the highest rank with a score of 100. After USA, Russia , Japan
,China , France, uk, India, Canada , Brazil and Germany stand in the next positions. As we
can tell by the scores, the difference in Astro space capability and in other words Astro
space outbreak is very big between the first country and the other countries. The number of
satellites that the U.S has is two times as much as all the satellites of the other countries put
together.table 24, shows the top ten countries in the Astro space factor:

Table 25:Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor

Map 8: Top ten powers in the Astro-space factor

9- Ranking the Power of Countries Based on the Military factor:
In the Military factor, eight variables were chosen by using the Factor Analysis method.
Table 26, shows the names of the chosen variables

Table 26: variables of the Military factor


According to this factor as has been shown in table 27 ,USA has the first position in the
world. In the next position, respectively are Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, India,
Turkey, Japan, South Korea.

Table 27:Top ten powers in the Military factor


Map 9: Top ten powers in the Military factor

Calculating the Total Scores of Countries and Drawing the Global Power Structure:
After the countries' scores were determined about the nine factors, with algebraic addition,
the scores of the nine factors are considered as the final scores of states which show the
national power of the countries. According to these outcomes a global geo-political
structure can be drawn. In addition ,the geo-political structure can be drawn in each of the
geographical and geo-political regions. Drawing the global and Territorial power structure
can be based on one or a few factors. For example, based on the economical factor, we can
recognize the superior economical powers in the world. . In addition, we can rank the geo-
political effect of the states in the world or in the region.

According to this method and as has been shown in Figure.11 the first power of the
world for the year 2005, is united state with 882 score ,in the next position of the global
power ,respectively belong to: China(462), Russia (458), United kingdom(440), Japan
(424), Germany(402), France(391), Canada(365), Australia(324) and Spain(319).

Figure 11: Top ten powers in the all factors (National Power)


Map 10: The first ten Global power


As it has been said, after determining the countries' scores in the factors (amount of
national power), a global power structure can be drawn out. Based on this, as shown in
Fig.12 ,the power level of countries is determined and based on that the global geo-political
structure is drawn. ) It must be said that the power levels are done in two ways: polar (with a
vertical structure) and systematically.In this research the power levels are determined and

based on the countries' scores(500 to 1000, 400 to 500 and ),the global power structure
can be drawn out.

Figure.12 :Global Geopolitical structure(power levels based on the scale of National Power)


According to the Fig, 4 of global geopolitical structure, there are five levels of the
powers as under:
First level:
with ranging score of 500-1000. only United State of America with 882 score is the first
global power.

Second level:
with ranging score of 400-500, including: China ,Russia, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany
and France.
Third level:
with ranging score of 200-400, including :Canada, Spain, Italy, India, Brazil, South Korea,
,Sweden ,Iran , Switzerland and
Fourth level:
with ranging score of 100-200, including :Ukraine, Thailand , Malaysia, Romania, South
Africa, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Egypt and
Fifth level:
with ranging score of under 100, including :Syria, Iraq ,Qatar , Turkmenistan ,Niger, Chad
and

Conclusion:
measuring national power of the states to determine the country's status in the global geo-
political structure and comparing countries' powers has always been one of the main
concerns of political geographers, scientists of political science and international relations.
In this research, based on criticizing and assessment of previous models for the evaluation
of national power, a new model is being presented to measure national power of the states.;
it is much better than previous models based on working method, number and integration of
indexes and variables affecting national power. We can even state that the designing of
such a model and at a such an extensive scale, has been done for the first time. The
advantages of this model compared to the previous ones are:

1- Paying attention to all different aspects of power in the form of these nine components:
economical, political, military, trans-national, Astro-space, Territorial, social, scientific and
technological and cultural, whereas the previous models had only attempted to measure
power in one or a few limited aspects.

2- The number and variety of the variables used in the model; in this model approximately
90 variables in different aspects were used

3- Using the Delphi method and referring to suggestions made by experts to measure the
role and importance of variables on national power

4- Drawing the global power structure based on the national power of the countries and
determining countries position and situation in the world power system

5- The possibility of comparing countries' powers in the geographical region and drawing a
regional geopolitical structure and evaluate the position and situation of the states in the
regional power systems

6-the model is flexible and can develop and improve to come better.Also it has capability
for measurement of national power of the states annually

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