Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 6, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 6, 2013

Highlights
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 55.2-mark in January. Spanish Services PMI increased to 47-level in the last month. UK's Services PMI increased to 51.5-level in prior month. European Retail Sales declined by 0.8 percent in December. Asian markets are trading higher today on account of signs of economic recovery in the Euro Zone after favorable economic data in yesterdays trading session. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.9 points to 55.2-mark in January as against a rise of 56.1-level in December. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism increased by 0.8 points to 47.3-level in February from 46.5-mark in last month. Indias HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 57.5-mark in January as against a rise of 55.6-level in December.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5956.9 19659.8 13979.3 1511.3 16712.3 1938.2 59445.0 11046.9 96.64 1672.40 3185.90 8288.25 101.46 Prev. day -0.5 -0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1

as on February 5, 2013 WoW -1.5 -1.7 0.2 0.2 -6.6 -0.9 -1.6 -0.1 -1.0 -0.4 2.2 2.2 -0.5 MoM -0.7 -0.4 4.9 3.0 -4.2 -2.7 -3.5 2.3 3.7 1.1 4.7 5.6 -0.1 YoY 11.1 11.0 8.8 12.4 2.0 0.2 -8.9 23.7 -0.3 -2.9 -5.5 -2.6 -2.4

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.1 percent yesterday as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, positive economic data from the Euro Zone showed signs of economic recovery and ease the regions debt crisis along with US equities trading on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the currency. However, sharp downside in the DX was cushioned on the back of unfavorable non-manufacturing PMI data. The currency touched an intra-day low of 79.49 and closed at 79.53 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.53 53.02 53.34 53.35 Prev. day -0.1 0.5 -0.25 -0.23

as on February 5, 2013 WoW -0.1 1.2 -1.34 -1.32 MoM -1.1 3.5 -3.60 -3.59 YoY 0.4 -7.5 8.96 8.97

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated in the later part of the trade on account of unexpected rise in the countrys services PMI data. Additionally, rising foreign inflows along with government disinvestment in NTPC Limited also acted as a positive factor for the currency, as around $300-$500 million of foreign inflows is expected from this transaction. However, in the initial part of the trade the currency had depreciated as a result of dollar demand from oil importers and weak global market sentiments. The currency touched an intra-day high of 52.99 and closed at 53.02 on Tuesday. For the month of January 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs 4,495.50 crores ($844.28 million) as on 5th February 2013. Year to date basis, net th capital inflows stood at Rs.26,554.60 crores ($4,903.60 million) till 5 February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Also disinvestment in NTPC Ltd will also support an upside in the currency.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for February 6, 2013 Support 53.20/53.05 Resistance 53.55/53.77

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 6, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday on the back of Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.7 points to 47level in January as against a rise of 44.3-mark in December. European Final Services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 48.6-level in January as compared to earlier rise of 48.3-mark a month ago. Apart from that, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. Italian Services PMI declined by 1.7 points to 43.9-mark in last month from rise of 45.6-level on December. European Retail Sales declined by 0.8 percent in December with respect to rise of 0.1 percent in prior month. Italian Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 0.2 percent in January from rise of 0.3 percent in December. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3597 and closed at 1.3582 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of expectations of favorable German factory orders data. Further, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 72.06/71.85 72.40/72.60 valid for February 6, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3582 71.93 72.32 72.3 Prev. day 0.5 0.1 -0.26 -0.28

as on February 5, 2013 WoW 0.7 0.4 -0.34 -0.34 MoM 3.8 0.0 0.51 0.50 12.14 12.13 YoY 3.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day -0.7 -0.85 -0.04

as on February 5, 2013

WoW -0.7 -1.69 -1.13

MoM -2.5 -5.75 -5.14

YoY -1.0 8.32 8.39

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented on the back of Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.6 points to 51.5-level in January from earlier rise of 48.9-mark in December. Weakness in the DX also cushioned further fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5628 and closed at 1.5656 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of Halifax House Price Index expected to come on a negative note. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 6, 2013 Support 83.85/83.65 Resistance 84.35/84.70

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5656 83.237 84.04

84.04

-0.06

-1.15

-5.14

8.39

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| February 6, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.4 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 93.65 and closed at 93.61 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 6, 2013 Support 56.98/56.64 Resistance 57.60/57.95 Last 93.61 0.5678 57.26 57.25 Prev day 1.4 -1.78 -0.75 -0.76 as on February 5, 2013 WoW 3.2 -4.10 -4.34 -4.35 MoM 7.6 -8.89 -8.71 -8.71 YoY 22.3 -10.48 -10.87 -10.83

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on February 6, 2013

Indicator Halifax HPI m/m German Factory Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories Country UK Euro US Time (IST) 1:30pm 4:30pm 9:00pm Actual Forecast -0.2% 0.8% 2.8M Previous 1.3% -1.8% 5.9M Impact Medium Medium Medium

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