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12/13/2012

Global Warming: Facts, Trends and Implications for Action

Predicted Climate Change impacts


Rising sea levels global models (50-90 cm in 100 years) Flood risks (Coastal Zones and Cities) ( ) Intensity and distribution of hurricanes Crop productivity los (wheat 50%, rice 17% and maize 6%, IFPRI by 2050?) Food security (Africa and Asia) Water scarcity (International Conflicts)

Gerhardus Schultink Professor of International Resource Development and AgBio Research, MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY IPB, Bogor. December, 2012

Soil Water Barrier Research

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON LAND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS


Use intensity and degradation of natural resources exceeds physically sustainable use rates (e.g. water scarcity and land degradation irrigation impacts) Environmental quality impacts increasing (water and air quality) (e g global warming) (e.g. Decline in food output per capita (e.g. fish, grain, meat) (increased energy cost / capita) Increase of human risk factors (environmentallyinduced health risks, water-borne diseases (e.g. ( g cholera, typhoid, malaria) e.g. cancer rates, pulmonary risks)

Combined Annual Grain Exports - Argentina, Australia, Canada, European Union, United States for the Period 1960-97

Supply and Demand Questions:


EXCESS RESOURCE DEMAND

UNSUSTAINABLE POPULATION GROWTH AND RESOURCE DEPLETION RATES

Which Natural Resources are finite (nonrenewable)? Which are (semi) renewable? Why? How to reduce demand? What land use is sustainable? Where does population control fit in? (R.I.) What do countries do about it? (UN conferences) What are sustainable population numbers? (location, country, region, global)

ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND NATURAL RESOURCE BASE DEGRADATION

REDUCED RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY CONSTRAINTS

DECLINING RESOURCE PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND EFFICIENCY

IMPACTS ON GNP, COMMODITY PRICES AND SOCIAL EQUITY

DETERIORATION OF PHYSICAL AND SERVICE INFRASTRUCTURE

CYCLIC DECLINE OF QUALITY OF LIFE AND INCREASED SECURITY RISK

DECLINING INCOME AND SAVINGS RATES

DECLINING PURCHASES AND INVESTMENTS CAPITAL DEFICIENCY

Gradual change Cyclic change

Figure 1 Impacts of Environmental Stress on Natural Resource Production Capacity and Social Equity

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Global Water Scarcities 70% of all freshwater


withdrawals are used for food production. Less than 60% of all the water used for irrigation is effectively consumed by crops.

GLOBAL WARMING RESEARCH in ANTARCTICA


( (what environment ?) )

Calzadilla, Rehdanz, and Tol, 2010 Science p. 305

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Antarctica a Huge Continent

About 7 times Indonesia and 2 times Australia

Antarctic Treaty
A system th t provides f f d t that id for freedom of scientific f i tifi investigation and promotion of international cooperation by exchange of information, personnel and scientific results To set aside disputes over territorial sovereignty To demilitarize Antarctica To promote international scientific cooperation

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ANTARCTICA: KEY FEATURES


90% of worlds fresh water - melting ice (cap about 1.6 km average) it would raise global sea level by 70m L Lowest temperature ever recorded: -89.6C ( d d 89 6C (129.3F) Greatest average elevation of any continent: 2300m vs 720m for Nth Am. No indigenous peoples - winter population about 1200 (summer about 5000 plus) No government; not owned by anyone

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Flow complexity analysis

Surface Altimetry

Comparisons Among Lakes


(Same Scale)

LAKE VOSTOK

Lake Vostok
Large - 10,000 square kilometers Deep - Up to 500 meters Old - Perhaps 25 million years Isolated - Under 4 kilometers of ice Remote - East Antarctica Not l N t alone - Ab t 80 other lakes About th l k

Vostok:
Ice Core Drilling g & Lake Vostok

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Reasons for Interest in Lake Vostok


Unique forms of life in an extreme habitat Geochemical characteristics Geologic hi t G l i history of Antarctica f A t ti Record of early climate in sediments Test-bed for unmanned, planetary missions

West Gondwana

East Gondwana

180 Ma East and West Gondwana formed 130 Ma The South Atlantic started to open and India started to separate from Antarctica

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Affect on global biodiversity patterns

Opening of Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica, about 35 Ma lead to the development of a circum polar current, the cooling of Antarctica and the development of the ice sheet.

Recent history comes from ice sheet

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Max extent of Antarctic Ice sheet in last glacial maxima, 15 000 years ago

Global Climate Change Impact

Global Temperature Change


60 Metres of sea level rise 7 Metres

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Wordie Ice Shelf

Antarctica

A window to our past, and A bridge to our future


President Bill Clinton

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35
1992

30
2005

2007

Total Melt Area (106 km2) a

1998

2002 2008

25

1987

1991 1995

20
1981 1980

1984 1985

1999 1988 1990 1993 1989 1997 1994 1986 2001 2000

2004 2003 2006

2007

15

1979

1982

1983

10
1992

1996

5 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Year

China has the largest fossil fuel emissions today today. However, climate change is driven by cumulative emissions, so developed nations, especially the U.S., have greatest responsibility.

Area on Greenland with snowmelt.

Graph credit: Konrad Steffen, Univ. Colorado

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Global Water Scarcity (plus Global Warming):


One of the most pressing challenges: availability of fresh water for food and fiber production and industrial and domestic uses Human population growth and the distribution of population centers stress water resources worldwide worldwide. Continued population growth, especially the location of population centers, along with variations in the hydrologic cycle related to climate change will continue to stress global water resources Desertification rates are increasing in China and Northern Africa. SWRT can begin shrinking these expanding deserts

Current global water usage averages about70% for food and fiber production, 20% for industrial activities, and 10% for municipal and domestic ti iti d f i i l dd ti consumption. Soil texture (particle size) largely determines soil moisture holding capacity g p y Water retention barriers in sand soils greatly reduce groundwater contamination by increasing residence time in the root zone, providing greater plant uptake and greater microbial decontamination (bioremediation)

How to reduce the global warming impact on crop productivity ?

GENERAL CROP YIELD EQUATION


ya (1 - ) = ym ETa ky ( 1 - ) Etm

where: ya = actual harvested crop yield ym = maximum h i harvested crop yield t d i ld ky = genetically determined yield response factor ETa = actual evapotranspiration ETm = maximum evapotranspiration

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EXAMPLE: Subsurface Water Retention Technologies Major Increases in Biomass for Biofuels in Michigan
Michigan has approximately 1.2 million acres of marginal sandy soils potentially highly productive for generating cellulosic biomass for biofuels. Currently switchgrass biomass production on marginal soils ranges between 0.5 to 1.0 T/a. Subsurface water retention barriers could increase biomass production to at least 6 T/a without irrigation or possibly 10 T/a annually with optimal water and nutrient management practices. Therefore, subsoil water retention barrier technologies could increase cellulose biomass on marginal soils of Michigan by 6 to 20fold for ethanol production production. Studies in Minnesota have reported high switchgrass root biomass production systems increase longterm soil carbon sequestration while reducing groundwater contamination.

Indonesia Fruit Imports (in tons)


Import Substitution Options

Biofuels - Leading Alternative to Fossil Fuels


Product

Domestic production by many countries (e.g. Brazil Ethanol) Minimal changes retail distribution and end-use technologies Partial response to global climate change Potential to improve rural development Most rapidly for corn ethanol (subsidies) especially US Corn ethanol - modest contribution to climate change goals Marginally positive net energy balance competing food source Long-run consequences - food and environmental quality Short run - gasoline supply and demand are inelastic - buffer on prices Large-scale production of new types of crops and cellulosic biomass Structural change in agriculture (sources, levels, farm incomes) Confluence of agricultural, environmental, energy policies G Government, private sector and university cooperation t i t t d i it ti Potential for production (SWRT) and conversion technologies

Mandarins Grapes Apples Pears Apricots Cherries Peaches Plums Strawberries Kiwifruit Avocados Mango Lemon Grapefruit Water melon Other melon Other berries Durian Other Tropical Fruit Total

1994 18,447 18 447 8,851 4,792 31,428 7,743 16 20 32 133 43 0 16 8 127 150 140 0 1 432 281 72,661

2003 24,225 24 225 31,279 14,469 71,390 32,691 109 100 152 210 597 1,125 43 348 95 64 39 142 749 3,099 18,378 199,304

2004 50,928 50 928 43,279 28,715 114,031 74,277 2 58 162 208 229 629 30 689 286 352 148 656 98 11,087 34,073 359,935

2005 29,712 29 712 53,659 25,330 126,973 80,395 5 41 108 215 241 626 19 869 562 350 668 171 23 11,351 42,275 373,594

2006
26,151.3 68,535.4 26,365.6 122,011.4 80,657.7 2.6 65.6 126.9 185.8 185 8 191.3 580.9 19.3 966.3 636.0 657.3 441.8 207.3 15.2 16,334.2 47,067.6 391,219.6

2007
23,566.7 89,125.5 27,395.3 145,301.6 94,518.6 2.1 20.6 70.8 199.5 199 5 129.0 898.3 17.6 1088.2 785.4 302.1 921.2 111.0 33.0 23,149.0 55,504.6 463,140.1

RESULTS of SWRT Technology: Successful, economical, and environmentally sustainable subsurface asphalt water retention barriers installed at South Haven, MI produced:
Vegetable yields on sand soils increased during the first year following installation of the asphalt water retention barrier: Cabbage yields increased 200% (292 cwt/a) Potato yields increased 152% (329 cwt/a) Cucumber yields increased 200% (228 cwt/a) Product prices for these extraordinary yields provided profits which enabled the farmer to pay the full costs of the subsurface water retention barrier during the first 2 years after installation of the water retention barrier.

CONCEPTUAL PROFILE NEW WATER AND NUTRIENT RETENTION TECHNOLOGY


SoilSurface

A A A

A A AB AB B

A AB B

AB

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Tencriteriaforidentifyingsoiltypeandbestdepthofwaterbarrier

ConclusionsforCEPEMbasedSWRTfortheGlobe:
Subsoilwaterretentiontechnology(SWRT)isarevolutionarytechnologyfor increasingwateruseefficienciesbyasmuchas20fold. TheSWRTtechnologyincreasesvegetableandfoodcropproductionby50to 400%whilereducingsoilerosion,managementinputsandenvironmental contaminationofgroundwater. contamination of groundwater. Waterbarriersreducedsupplementalirrigationrequirements58%dueto reductionsnwaterandnutrientpercolationthroughsoildepthsbelowtheroot zone. Waterbarriersinsandysoilsof5statesincreasedyieldsof14fruitsand W t b i i d il f 5 t t i d i ld f 14 f it d vegetablesfrom96to180%withirrigationwatersavingsrangingfrom40to60%.

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8 9. 10.

Percentageoffinesand Longtermweatherrecords Maximumrainfallratesat30and50years. Soilseriesanddepthtotexturalchange Croppingrotations Bestmanagementpractices Plantrootingdepths Supplementalirrigationavailable Supplemental irrigation available Treespeciesinagroforestry SALUS:SystemsApproachtoLandUse Sustainabilitycomputermodelfor identifyingbarrierdepth,watersavings andestimatedyieldshttp://www.salusmodel.net

Unrealized Production Potential


P U B L I C B E N E F I T S UNREALIZED PRODUCTION POTENTIAL CURRENT BENEFITS MAXIMUM NET SOCIOECONOMIC BENEFITS

Unrealized production potential


Theoretical difference that may be realized if current land use is changes to higher and better better sustainable land use C Comparative Advantage of production i Ad f d i opportunities Quantitative / Qualitative indicators in selecting economic development opportunities Provides spatial and temporal analytical framework for development planning

CURRENT LAND USE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE LAND USE

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PLANNING CYCLE

Why improve water holding capacities of marginal sandy and other highly permeable soils?
Current droughts; all plants experience frequent periods of drought Converting marginal CRP land into sustainable agricultural land Reduce land competition for food and cellulosic biomass production Reduce nitrogen fertilizer costs Overcome growing global food and energy demands Reduce water shortages in major groundwater supplies Decrease concentrations of nitrates and pesticides in groundwater p g Develop new technologies that improve soil water holding capacities Produce food for the 9 billion people by 2050

Global Water Shortages:


Reports by water industries predict that during the next two decades water availability will diminish to 40% below level needed to sustain global populations. World-wide water requirements are expected to increase from 4.5 trillion cubic meters, today, to 6.9 trillion cubic meters by 2030 and exceed existing reliable water supplies. In the U.S. Depths of deep water reservoirs are limiting irrigation of numerous agricultural regions including the Ogallala Aquifer, from Canada to the High Plains of West Texas and along arid and semiarid regions of the Southwest. High quality water, the worlds most finite critical resource, ensures economic, environmental, political and social stability.

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Subsurface water retention technology (SWRT) is a revolutionary water conservation approach for increasing water use efficiency and crop productivity, significantly reducing deep leaching and plant drought stresses while reducing supplemental irrigation requirements.

SWRT:19 22% Control:8 10%


1.5to3.0mil polyethylene membranes

14 22 2:1

Rear view with rolls of PE membranes positioned for installation.

Rollsofpolyethylene (PE)membranes followtransfertubes locateddirectly throughtheprimary th h th i standardconnected tomembrane Installationdevice MIDshoe. PEfilmexitingthe PE film exiting the Ushapedexitat thebackoftheMID shoe.

Excavated water and nutrient saving membrane, 12 wide x 6 deep, installed at soil depth of 14 from base to soil surface.

12-inch width of bowl-shaped trough of PE membrane across research field plots. Roots in photo are from previous mature rye cover crop.

12inwide 6in deep

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SWRT:19 22% Control:8 10%


1.5to3.0mil polyethylene membranes

14 22 2:1
SWRT membranes retained nearly twice the volumetric soil water contents at 15 cm (Shallow) and 30 cm (Deep) in sand soils planted to corn with 30 between-row and 6 in-row spacing for 54,450 plants per acre, July 24-27, 2012.
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Pictures: SWRT vs. Control 15 Inch Rows June 29, 2012


15 in SW WRT Plot oorn

Pictures: SWRT vs. Control 15 Inch Rows June 29, 2012


15 in SWRT Plot

Irrigated corn on SWRT membranes

15 Inch Control plot of 5 p


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IrrigatedSWRTMembranes g

Irrigated Control NoSWRT Membranes


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Table 1. Corn yields of 353 bushels per acre were 192% greater on Irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than on irrigated controls 184 bushels/acre without SWRT membranes. Cucumber yields were 146% greater on irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than irrigated controls without SWRT membranes. g Corn 15inchrows Bushelspera. Corn 30inchrows Bushelspera. Cucumbers Kgperacre

15 Inch Co ontrol

Treatment

Control,no membranes Subsurface membranes

184(46)* 353(26) 353 (26)

195(31) 269(20) 269 (20)

19,958 29,040 29 040

Three rows of non irrigated no SWRT membranes along plot edges.


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*Denotes standard deviations from the mean.

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PotentialTransportDistancesforUltraHighProductionof BiomassProductioninMichigan
PreparedforBruceDale p
byAlvinSmucker March2012 Ultrahigh cellulosicbiomass cropyields Tons/a Switchgrass:12T/a/y Corn:49T/a/y(entire) *Corn:34T/a/y(stalks) Acresneededfor 500tonsbiomass/d for365dayseachyear 15,208acres 3,725acres 5,368acres Onewaytriptransport to500T/dbiomass productionfacility 11.9miles 2.9miles 4.2miles 11.6miles

SWRT Retains Rainwater Where it Falls


Itisa

Long-term Green Initiative


that

EnhancesAnnualCellulosicandFoodProduction by50to200% b 50 t 200%


HOW?

#Corn:32.5T/a/yr (stalks)7,449acres

By Storing Soil Water and Nutrient y g Resources in the Root Zone of Plants
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*Assuming15tonskeptonlandforimprovingsoilquality #Assuming1/3biomasswasharvestedandremovedascorngrain

SummaryandPotential for SubsurfaceWaterRetentionTechnology(SWRT)


Commercialimplementforinstallingfoursubsurfacewater retentionmembraneshasbeencompletedandfieldtested. Rootzonesoilwaterretentionhasbeendoubledinsandsoils. Root zone soil water retention has been doubled in sand soils WatersavingtechnologyisbeingtestedinMichigan,Texas,Turkey withplannedinstallationsinArizona,Florida,MissouriandIraq. SWRTandassociatedstrategicmanagementarepoisedto SWRT d i t d t t i t i dt atleastdoublecellulosicbiomassandgrainproduction acrosstheUSAandglobally.

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