Late Edition

Today, increasingly cloudy, a shower, high 65. Tonight, mostly cloudy, a shower or two, low 59. Tomorrow, mainly cloudy most of the time, high 69. Weather map, Page D8.

VOL. CLXII . . No. 55,933

2012 The New York Times

NEW YORK, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

$2.50

ACCORD TO EASE Obama and Romney Bristle From Start Over Foreign Policy MEDICARE RULES Debate Strategy IN CHRONIC CASES and Tactics in
LONGTIME POLICY ENDS
Lawsuit Sought Leeway for Patients Who Fail to Show Progress
By ROBERT PEAR

Last Meeting
By PETER BAKER and HELENE COOPER

WASHINGTON Tens of thousands of people with chronic conditions and disabilities may find it easier to qualify for Medicare coverage of potentially costly home health care, skilled nursing home stays and outpatient therapy under policy changes planned by the Obama administration. In a proposed settlement of a nationwide class-action lawsuit, the administration has agreed to scrap a decades-old practice that required many beneficiaries to show a likelihood of medical or functional improvement before Medicare would pay for skilled nursing and therapy services. Under the agreement, which amounts to a significant change in Medicare coverage rules, Medicare will pay for such services if they are needed to maintain the patients current condition or prevent or slow further deterioration, regardless of whether the patients condition is expected to improve. Federal officials agreed to rewrite the Medicare manual to make clear that Medicare coverage of nursing and therapy services does not turn on the presence or absence of an individuals potential for improvement, but is based on the beneficiarys need for skilled care. Judith A. Stein, director of the nonprofit Center for Medicare Advocacy and a lawyer for the beneficiaries, said the proposed settlement could help people with chronic conditions like Alzheimers disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinsons disease, stroke, spinal cord injuries and traumatic brain injury. It could also provide relief for families and caregivers who often find themselves stretched financially and personContinued on Page A15

RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mitt Romney and President Obama debating Monday night. The two rivals offered starkly different views of the world. Page A13.

U.S. Concern Over Compounders Role Reversal Gives President Predates Outbreak of Meningitis Harder Line, and Punch Lines
By WALT BOGDANICH and SABRINA TAVERNISE

A year before people began dying of meningitis caused by a tainted drug from a compounding pharmacy in Massachusetts, the Food and Drug Administration worried that compounders across the country might be selling another substandard drug, one possibly made with unapproved Chinese ingredients. But when the F.D.A. began seeking samples to test, the trade group representing compounding pharmacists went on the offensive. Instead of encouraging members to help the agency determine if the injectable drug, used to reduce the risk of premature birth, was substandard, the group tutored pharmacists on how to sidestep requests. In an e-mail to members, the International Academy of Com-

pounding Pharmacists suggested that they respond to any request for samples by saying, We do not compound or distribute samples of any of our prescription medications to anyone. And if a compounded drug was on the premises, the trade group added, a pharmacist should say it was awaiting pickup by a patient. A spokesman for the trade group said the instructions were intended to guard against unauthorized release of samples to corporate competitors and not to hinder the F.D.A. investigation. But the memo is emblematic of the industrys frequent and often successful attempts to fend off regulators at a time when concerns are growing about the qualContinued on Page A24

Mitt Romney came in peace. He said he wanted better education, more financial aid, gender equality and rule of law, and he was talking about the Middle East, not the Midwest. He THE TV even said he was WATCH consulting a group of Arab scholars sponsored by, of all things, the United Nations, to shape his plan for fixing the troubled region. We cant kill our way out of this mess, he said. And all his expressions of internationalism and support for womens liberation overseas made President Obama, by contrast, almost sound like a Republican hard-liner. Well, my first job as commander in chief, Bob, is to keep

ALESSANDRA STANLEY

the American people safe, President Obama told the evenings moderator, Bob Schieffer. Monday nights debate provided an odd role reversal that made Mr. Romney seem on the defensive, particularly because he at times stuttered and sputtered in his haste to make his points. He pronounced foreign names and countries correctly, but also carefully, worried perhaps that a mispronunciation would sink his credibility. Usually, it is Mr. Obama who seems professorial and long-winded. There were long moments when Mr. Romney made the president sound succinct and sharp-edged. Perhaps trying to demonstrate the breadth of his knowledge, Mr. Romney careened from Iran to Continued on Page A12

BOCA RATON, Fla. President Obama and Mitt Romney wrapped up a series of defining debates on Monday night with a bristling exchange over Americas place in the world as each sought to portray the other as an unreliable commander in chief in a dangerous era. Picking up where he left off in last weeks debate, Mr. Obama went on offense from the start, lacerating his challenger for articulating a set of wrong and reckless policies that he called incoherent. While less aggressive, Mr. Romney pressed back, accusing the president of failing to assert American interests and values in the world to deal with a rising tide of chaos. Governor, the problem is that on a whole range of issues, whether its the Middle East, whether its Afghanistan, whether its Iraq, whether its now Iran, youve been all over the map, Mr. Obama charged. I dont see our influence growing around the world, Mr. Romney countered. I see our influence receding, in part because of the failure of the president to deal with our economic challenges at home. The debate here at Lynn University, moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS News, was dedicated to foreign policy even though it veered occasionally into domestic issues, and it presented the last opportunity for the candidates to face each other before the Nov. 6 election. While international relations have often taken a back seat to the economy during the marathon campaign, whoever wins will inherit a world with increasingly complicated challenges, from the turmoil in the Middle East to a resurgent Russia to an emerging China, and Mondays debate highlighted the vexing issues ahead. For all its fireworks, the debate broke little new ground and underscored that the differences between the two men on foreign Continued on Page A12

In Mobile World, Tech Giants A 5-Concussion Pee Wee Game Scramble to Get Up to Speed Brings Penalties for the Adults
By CLAIRE CAIN MILLER and SOMINI SENGUPTA By KEN BELSON

JIM MONE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

A Voice of Wounded Knee, Dead at 72

Russell Means called attention to injustice, and to himself, as a 1970s leader of the American Indian Movement. Page B19.

SAN FRANCISCO Intel made its fortune on the chips that power personal computers, and Microsoft on the software that goes inside. Googles secret sauce is that it finds what you are looking for on the Internet. But the ground is shifting beneath these tech titans because of a major force: the rise of mobile devices. These and other tech companies are scrambling to reinvent their business models now that the old model a stationary customer sitting at a stationary desk no longer applies. These companies once disrupted traditional businesses, from selling books and music to booking hotels. Now they are being upended by the widespread adoption of smartphones and tablets. Companies are having to re-

tool their thinking, saying, What is it that our customers are doing through the mobile channel that is quite distinct from what we are delivering them through our traditional Web channel? said Charles S. Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research, the technology research firm. He added, Its hilarious to talk about traditional Web business like its been going on for centuries, but its last century. The industry giants remain highly profitable drivers of the economy. Yet the worlds shift to computing on mobile devices is taking a toll, including disappointing earnings reports last week from Google, Microsoft and Intel, in large measure related to revenue from mobile devices. Investors are in suspense over Continued on Page A3

It took just one play on Sept. 15 to suggest the game between the Southbridge Pop Warner pee wees and their rivals, the Tantasqua Braves, could mean trouble. Two Tantasqua players were hit so hard that their coach pulled them off the field. An emergency medical technician on the sidelines evaluated the boys, grew worried that they might have concussions, and had them take their pads off. The boys on the teams were as young as 10, and, because of rules about safety, none could weigh more than 120 pounds. Shortly after 3 p.m. at McMahon Field in Southbridge, though, things quickly became worse. Six plays into the game, another Brave was removed after a hard hit. An official with the Tantasqua team said the eyes of one of the boys were

rolling back in his head. But the game, an obvious mismatch between teams from neighboring towns in central Massachusetts, went on, with Southbridge building a 28-0 lead in the first quarter. The game went on without the officials intervening. It went on despite the fact that the Braves, with three of their players already knocked out of the game, no longer had the required number of players to participate. Even with what are known as mercy rules regulations designed to limit a dominant teams ability to run up scores the touchdowns kept coming, and so did the concussions. When the game ended, the final score was 52-0, and five preadolescent boys had head injuries, the last hurt on Continued on Page B14

INTERNATIONAL A4-9

SCIENCE TIMES D1-8

BUSINESS DAY B1-12

Sex Abuse Fallout Rocks BBC

Fallout continues in Britain over the revelation that the BBC declined to broadcast an episode investigating claims that a celebrity abused girls and young women over decades. PAGE A8

Wishing Upon a Star

News that there is a planet circling Alpha Centauri B prompted many people to daydream, and one to start setting up a plan for interstellar travel. PAGE D2

Chinas Chill on U.S. Exports

As the economy of China slows down, American exporters that benefited from its boom are now seeing weak demand for items like heavy machinery. PAGE B1

Italy Convicts 7 in Quake Case

Seven Italian earthquake experts were sentenced to prison for failing to give adequate warning before a 2009 earthquake that killed 309 people. PAGE A4
NATIONAL A14-15, 20

Rhapsodies in Blue
The complex structure, function and variations of blue in nature and human PAGE D1 culture captivate scientists.
SPORTSTUESDAY B13-18

Election Weighs on the Fed

Mitt Romney hopes to replace Ben Bernanke as the Federal Reserve chairman. But it is unclear whether that would lead to a sharp shift in policy. PAGE B1
ARTS C1-7

Giants Headed to World Series

Hunter Pence, below, and San Francisco rolled past the St. Louis Cardinals, 9-0, in Game 7 of the N.L.C.S. PAGE B13

Decisions, Decisions
Jeffrey Toobins new book, The Oath, describes the pivotal relationship that has evolved between the Obama White House and the Roberts court. A review PAGE C1 by Michiko Kakutani.
EDITORIAL, OP-ED A18-19

Land Boom Despite Corn Bust

Even as the worst drought in decades has reduced corn yields to their lowest level in 17 years, farmland prices across the Corn Belt continue to rise. PAGE A14
NEW YORK A16-21

Goodbye to Brownstone
The Connecticut quarry that was the last source of the sandstone for houses in New York City has closed and is nearly out of inventory. PAGE A18

David Brooks

PAGE A19

U(D54G1D)y+&!&!?!#!?

A2

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Inside The Times

INTERNATIONAL NATIONAL BUSINESS
QUOTATION OF THE DAY

Russians Seek Soldiers Missing From 80s War

More than 23 years after the hurried Soviet military withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russians are still trying to solve a mystery: the fate of former soldiers still missing in action, some of them thought to have taken up quiet Afghan lives. PAGE A4

Gay Marriage Ruling Fuels Judicial Vote in Iowa

As protesters call on voters to oust Justice David S. Wiggins, who was a part of the unanimous Iowa Supreme Court that ruled same-sex marriage legal in 2009, a robust coalition has formed around him, urging Iowans to vote to keep him on the court. PAGE A14

F.D.A. Views Death Reports Citing Energy Drink

Five people may have died after drinking Monster Energy, a popular energy drink that is high in caffeine, according to incident reports recently released by the Food and Drug Administration. But the reports do not prove a link between the drink and deaths or health problems.
PAGE B1

My team is not dirty. All the issues were on their side of the field. This is a football game, not a Hallmark moment.
SCOTT LAZO, a Pop Warner football coach in Southbridge, Mass., after a game in which five opposing players, all 12 or younger, suffered concussions. [B14]

Korean Activists Defy Police

Activists said that they had succeeded in sending tens of thousands of leaflets into North Korea, despite South Korean police efforts to block the action and a threat from the North Korean government to retaliate with a military attack. PAGE A4

Unseen, but Still Present

Aside from President Obama and Mitt Romney, no one has shaped the 2012 election more than George W. Bush. But for Mr. Romney, the former president represents a burden to minimize; for Mr. Obama, Mr. Bushs record offers a shield on the economy. PAGE A10

Airlines Neglect Markets

Focusing on major hubs and on partnerships with international alliances, airlines have made big cuts in service at midsize and smaller regional airports and, on average, have lost about 25 percent of their seats, Joe Sharkey, writes. On the Road. PAGE B9

SCIENCE

Political Fight in Iran Erupts

A rivalry between Irans president and a band of brothers in the political hierarchy exploded into the open, signaling fractures in the facade of unity as the country confronts worsening economic conditions and isolation over the disputed Iranian nuclear program. PAGE A6

Curbing the Enthusiasm On Daily Multivitamins

Experts are concerned about letting optimism about the potential benefits of nutritional supplements get ahead of the scientific evidence.
PAGE D1

NEW YORK

SPORTS

Charges Being Dropped In Contested Arrest

The Brooklyn district attorney, Charles J. Hynes, dropped all criminal charges on Monday against a young man whose arrest inside a Jewish community center in Brooklyn led to allegations of police brutality. PAGE A19

New Skipper Rivalry: Seasoned vs. Youth

Professional sailing once saw middle-aged, seasoned sailors as the top picks for the Americas Cup helmsmen. Now, young and champion sailors have what racing teams are looking for to win sailings highest profile event. PAGE B18

Finding Zen in Nature

David Haskell, an ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of the South, conducted no experiments for his book. He just watched and listened to the forest. PAGE D1

Carter Derides Leaders

Former President Jimmy Carter said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had abandoned the two-state solution and that President Obama had shirked the historical role played by the United States in the region. PAGE A9

OP-ED

OBITUARIES

ARTS

Russians Cite U.S. Abuses

Lawmakers in the Russian Parliament took the podium to catalog rights violations perpetrated by Americans, including waterboarding, Ku Klux Klan lynchings and the abuse of children adopted from Russia. PAGE A9

Raoul De Keyser, 82
A Belgian painter, Mr. De Keyser created abstractions with a striking economy of means, exhibited primarily in Belgium and the Netherlands, achieving international recognition only after his work was included in the 1992 Documenta exhibition in Kassel, Germany. PAGE B18

Bluesman Is Always Home Wherever He Plays

Gary Clark Jr. has made a name for himself touring as a straight-up bluesman, but his new album, Blak and Blu, presents him as a pop eclectic, and he is calm about fans who are skeptical of it. PAGE C1

Frank Bruni PAGE A23 Joe Nocera PAGE A23

Crossword C7 Health/Fitness D5 Obituaries B18-19 TV Listings C6 Weather D8 Commercial Real Estate Marketplace B6

Corrections
FRONT PAGE

An article on Oct. 5 about an antipiracy force in the semiautonomous Somali region of Puntland referred incorrectly to one aspect of the involvement of Erik Prince, the former head of Blackwater Worldwide. While Mr. Prince was involved in the creation of the antipiracy force, he did not travel to Puntland to oversee its training. An article on Monday about worry among patients who have been injected with steroids of the kind implicated in a meningitis outbreak omitted a credit. Sheelagh McNeill contributed reporting.
NATIONAL

An article on Monday about efforts by the Romney and Obama campaigns to turn out voters in Florida misstated the number of houses that the Romney campaign said a canvasser visited on Saturday morning in Casselberry, north of Orlando. It was about 200 houses, not more than 350.
BUSINESS DAY

in the book. He is Robert Hass, not Haas. A critics notebook article on Monday about the CMJ Music Marathon in New York misidentified the country in which one of the performers, Maria Minerva, was born. It is Estonia, not Iceland.
SPECIAL SECTION: CARS

tle. (Toyota has sold more than 38.6 million Corollas, according to the company. And Volkswagen says it has sold more than 29.1 million Golfs, including 1.38 million under the Rabbit name.)
OBITUARIES

An article on Sunday about the challenge of preserving buildings as landmarks in Phoenix misstated the number of signatures gathered in an online petition to help save a 1952 home in Phoenix designed by Frank Lloyd Wright. As of Monday there were more than 26,000 signatures, not 100,000.

An article on Monday about the redesign of the Walt Disney Companys Web site referred incorrectly in some copies to Lane Merrifields role at Disney before his resignation last week. Mr. Merrifield, the founder of Club Penguin, a membership site for children, was not one of the executives leading the Toy Box console gaming initiative at Disney.
THE ARTS

An article onOct. 12about cars that may become the classics of tomorrow referred incorrectly to the sales record of the original Volkswagen Beetle. Two car models still in production have already surpassed the 21.5 million that the original Beetles sold; it is not the case that no car will ever sell as many as the Bee-

An obituary on Oct. 7 about the record executive Howard H. Scott, who helped develop the long-playing 33 1/3 r.p.m. album at Columbia Records in the 1940s, described incorrectly the way old recordings were transferred to the new format. While some music was taken from 78 r.p.m. discs, as the obituary noted, most of the records were drawn from Columbias original recordings on large lacquer discs, which also played at 33 1/3.

The Books of The Times review on Monday, about the anthology The Hungry Ear: Poems of Food & Drink, edited by Kevin Young, misspelled the surname of the poet whose Meditation at Lagunitas is included

Errors and Comments: nytnews@nytimes.com or call 1-888-NYT-NEWS (1-888-698-6397). Editorials: letters@nytimes.com or fax (212) 556-3622. Public Editor: Readers dissatisfied

with a response or concerned about the papers journalistic integrity can reach the public editor, Margaret Sullivan, at public@nytimes.com. Newspaper Delivery: customercare@nytimes.com or call 1-800-NYTIMES (1-800-698-4637).

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THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A3

In Mobile World, Tech Giants Scramble to Keep Up

From Page A1 Facebooks earnings to be disclosed Tuesday, for much the same reason. Yahoos new chief, Marissa Mayer, said on Monday that Yahoo had failed to capitalize on mobile and must become a predominantly mobile company. Demand for Intel chips inside computers which are much more profitable than those inside smartphones is plummeting. At Microsoft, sales of software for PCs are sharply declining. At Google, the price that advertisers pay when people click on ads has fallen for a year. This is partly because, while mobile ads are exploding, they cost less than Internet ads; advertisers are still figuring out how to make them most effective. Since its initial public offering, Facebook has lost half its value on Wall Street under pressure to make more money from mobile devices, now that six of 10 Facebook users log in on their phones. Making money will now depend on how deftly tech companies can track their users from their desktop computers to the phones in their palms and ultimately to the stores, cinemas and pizzerias where they spend their money. It will also depend on how consumers and government regulators will react to having every move monitored. Facebook is already experimenting with ways to use what it knows about its users to show ads when they are using other mobile apps. Google can link what a logged-in user does on the computer and phone, to show someone a cellphone ad based on what they have searched for on a computer at home, for instance. But just last week, European regulators warned Google to amend its privacy policy that allows it to gather information about people across diverse Google products, from Gmail to YouTube. In addition, Nielsen found that only one in five smartphone users described ads on phones as acceptable. Today almost half of Americans own a smartphone, according to comScore an astoundingly fast adoption since Apple introduced the iPhone just five years ago. The amount of time people spend on their phones surfing the Web, using apps, playing games and listening to music has more than doubled in the last two years, to 82 minutes a day, according to eMarketer; the time spent online on computers will grow just 3.6 percent this year. What has caught people off guard has been acceleration of the multitude of things that you can do with a smartphone, said David B. Yoffie, a Harvard Business School professor who studies the technology sector. The Web started in 1993, 94, he added. It didnt disrupt everything for a decade and a half. The smartphone revolution started a half decade ago. Because of the existence of the Web, it allowed the phone to have a disruptive impact in a shorter time frame. Still, mobile provides huge opportunities for these businesses, industry analysts say. That is largely because people reveal much more about themselves on phones than they do on computers, from where they go and

PHOTOGRAPHS BY ISAAC BREKKEN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mandy Chan checks online prices with her phone while shopping at a Target in Las Vegas with her daughter Mia.
when they sleep to whom they talk to and what they want to buy. Consumers may be put off by the intrusion of marketers into their daily lives, but companies say the trade-off can be worth it an unprompted calendar alert, say, that tells you whether youll be late for a meeting or a coupon when you are near a shop. Were really starting to live in a new reality, one where the ubiquity of screens really helps users move from intent to action much faster and more seamlessly, Larry Page, Googles chief executive, told analysts last week. It will create new opportunity in advertising. Companies are addressing the challenges in different ways. Despite the disappointment in its recent earnings report, Google says it is on track to earn $8 billion from mobile ads, apps and media in the coming year, and has activated half a billion de-

The upstarts of the 1990s find themselves now on the defensive.

vices running its mobile operating system, Android. Google earns the majority of mobile ad dollars. It is offering location-based ads, like a T-Mobile campaign that sent users ads when they were near stores. Some mobile ads already make more money than desktop ads, said Googles chief financial officer, Patrick Pichette. But one of Googles biggest challenges is tracking whether people make a purchase after they see a mobile ad. Unlike online, where Google knows if someone buys a camera after searching for it, the company does not know if someone searches for a Thai restaurant nearby

and then eats there. That is why it is trying to follow people into the physical world, with services like Wallet for payments and Offers for coupons. Facebook is trying to use what it knows about its billion users to serve up ads on other applications they download on their phones. For instance, a soda brand that wants to target men in Los Angeles who like the Lakers could show them ads not only when they are logged into Facebooks mobile app, but on other apps as well. We think that showing mobile ads outside of Facebook is another great way for people to see relevant ads and discover new apps, the company said in response to an e-mail inquiry. Not wanting to watch from the sidelines as people abandon computers for smartphones, Microsoft on Friday is introducing a version of its Windows software tailored for touch-screen devices and a new tablet, the Surface. But Microsoft executives told analysts last week that the slowdown in computer technology was because of other factors besides mobile, like tough economic conditions and companies waiting to buy software until its new software, Windows 8, arrived. Microsofts chief executive, Steven A. Ballmer, called Windows 8 the beginning of a new era at Microsoft. Intel is playing catch-up by making chips for more than two dozen smartphones and tablets

coming to market. The shift to mobile has also created a new market for Intel: Its chips are in the huge servers that power the cloud, where much mobile data is stored. As the market for smartphones and tablets evolved, the company historically didnt have a presence, said Jon Carvill, an Intel spokesman. This year, thats started to change. For other tech companies, mobile has been a boon from early on. Apple became the most valuable company in the United States selling the iPhone and iPad. Recently, Apple built its own mobile maps to replace Googles maps on the iPhone in part because it wanted to keep valuable information about users location searches to itself and away from its competitor. Nvidia and Qualcomm are making processors for mobile devices. Amazon and eBay are selling people things even on small screens. And mobile phone owners have found some services like Zillow for real estate, Yelp for local businesses and OpenTable for restaurant reservations better on phones than on computers, and revenue has followed. For investors and others trying to solve the riddle of making money on mobile users, Marc Andreessen, the venture capitalist, extolled the virtues of the mobile era this way: Were going to know a tremendous amount about people.

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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Russians Seek Fate Of Missing In 80s War

By ALISSA J. RUBIN

KABUL, Afghanistan More than 23 years after the hurried Soviet military withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russians are still trying to solve haunting mysteries they left behind: the fate of 265 former soldiers still missing in action, some of them thought to have taken up quiet Afghan lives. It is rare that the Russian Embassy here opens its high gates to outsiders. But last week, foreign and Afghan reporters were invited in to talk with Alexander Lavrentyev, the vice president of the Moscow-based War Veterans Committee, who made a soft-spoken but passionate plea for help in locating the service members from the former Soviet Union who have still not been accounted for. I am confident some are still alive, and the problem is that they are afraid to contact us, Mr. Lavrentyev said. Many of those who survive may not know that Russia and most of the other states that made up the Soviet Union have passed amnesty laws that ensure that even if the soldiers deserted or decided to remain in Afghanistan, they will not be prosecuted. They

Italy Orders Jail Terms For 7 Who Didnt Warn Of Deadly Earthquake
Ruling in 2009 Disaster Alarms Scientists
FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE GETTY IMAGES

Decades later, trying to answer questions in Afghanistan.

may also be unaware that if they come home they will be able to receive medical care, he said. About 15,000 Soviet men and a few women died in the 19791989 fighting in Afghanistan, the vast majority of them soldiers. Some were killed in battle, some were taken as prisoners of war, and many died of cold and disease. A few, however, ultimately decided to convert to Islam, marry Afghan women and make their lives here. Some went to Pakistan and others ultimately fled to Europe or South Africa, according to books on the period. Mr. Lavrentyevs main goal is to help the families of those whose fate remains unknown (roughly half are Russian and the others are from former Soviet republics). Their loved ones are still waiting for them. So this conference is to ask people to help us, he said, appealing especially to Afghan journalists who, he said, talk to many more people than his committee can. He hoped that they would be able to go to areas that are again conflict zones, but where Soviet soldiers may be buried in unmarked graves. Sometimes people ask, why are you working on this issue and reopening old wounds? And I always have the same answer: I recommend to everyone that they go to the mother who has lost her son and she will tell you his story, he said. For such families, the stories have awaited final chapters for decades: is our Continued on Page A9

ALESSANDRO BIANCHI/REUTERS

Top, a crowd on Monday watching the trial of seven earthquake experts in LAquila. Above, LAquila on April 6, 2009, when a quake struck, killing 309 people.
By ELISABETTA POVOLEDO

ROME Seven prominent Italian earthquake experts were convicted of manslaughter on Monday and sentenced to six years in prison for failing to give adequate warning to the residents of a seismically active area in the months preceding an earthquake that killed more than 300 people. Speaking in a hushed courtroom in LAquila, the city whose historic center was gutted by the April 2009 earthquake, the judge, Marco Billi, read a long list of names of those who had died or been injured in the disaster before he handed down the sentences to six scientists and a former government official. The defendants, who said they would appeal the decision, will also have to pay court costs and damages of $10.2 million. The seven, most of them seismologists and geologists, were members of the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks, which met shortly before the quake struck after weeks of frequent small tremors but did not issue a safety warning. The verdicts jolted the international scientific community, which feared they might open the way to an onslaught of legal actions against scientists who evaluate the risks of natural hazards. This is the death of public serv-

ice on the part of professors and professionals, said Luciano Maiani, the current president of the risks commission, according to the news agency Ansa. The legal and media pressure prompted by the trial have made it impossible to carry out professional consultancies for the state, he said, adding, This doesnt happen anywhere else in the world. Thomas H. Jordan, a professor at the University of Southern California, led a commission that after the disaster advised the Italian government about better ways to communicate earthquake risks to the public. He described the verdicts as incredible,
AUSTRIA SLOVENIA HUNGARY

SWITZ.

ITALY

CROATIA

LAquila
CORSICA

Rome

SARDINIA
Mediterranean Sea 150 Miles

SICILY
THE NEW YORK TIMES

A period of tremors preceded the major quake in LAquila.

given that they have just convicted scientists for basically doing their job during a time of crisis. Im afraid its going to teach scientists to keep their mouths shut, he added. Scientists said the case raised the issue of when a public warning is appropriate. While predicting the exact time and location of an earthquake is not possible, seismologists are increasingly able to forecast the likelihood that a quake might occur in a certain area within a certain time. But if the likelihood is very low as it was in this case, despite the increased seismic activity in the weeks before a warning may do more harm than good. Lawyers for the defendants were unanimous on Monday in their condemnation of the sentence, which exceeded the prosecutions request of four years in prison, and vowed to appeal. I wasnt expecting this, said Alfredo Biondi, a defense lawyer. He described the ruling as one of the most erroneous that he had encountered in his long career. This was a trial that should not have been held in LAquila because the emotional impact of the quake is still felt so strongly in the city, said Filippo Dinacci, who represents two of the defendants. More than three years after the earthquake, LAquila, in the Abruzzo region east of Rome, has

yet to recover fully. Its architecturally rich center is still largely abandoned, and residents are still mourning the dead. There are some sporadic signs of reconstruction around the center, including the inauguration last month of an auditorium designed by Renzo Piano, but the overall mood in the city speaks more of discouragement and dismay. The city and surrounding

A case raises the issue of when alerting the public is appropriate, experts say.
towns were felled by the magnitude 6.3 quake in the early hours of April 6, 2009. The disaster left thousands homeless and killed 309, many of them in their sleep. Six days before the quake, the risks commission met to assess the situation after the period of frequent small quakes. The seismic activity had made the public anxious, as had a series of specific quake predictions none of which proved to be accurate by a local man who is not a scientist. After the meeting, some commission members gave encouraging statements to the

news media, which prosecutors said gave residents an overly reassuring picture of the risks they faced. The commission, prosecutors charged, did not uphold its mandate and consequently did not allow residents to make informed decisions about whether to stay or leave their homes. In his closing arguments on Monday the prosecutor, Fabio Picuti, cited a United States court ruling that blamed the Army Corps of Engineers for monumental negligence for some of the flooding from Hurricane Katrina, Ansa reported. That case, Mr. Picuti said, demonstrates that it is possible to fall short of preventing and predicting a risk, according to Ansa. Relatives of the victims cheered the decision. Its just a tiny bit of justice so that it doesnt happen again, said an unidentified woman on Sky television. The court did not rule on whether earthquakes can be predicted. But Fabio Alessandroni, a civil lawyer who represents the relatives of more than a dozen victims, said the sentence showed that it is possible to have a culture of prevention. It is possible to predict a risk and to adopt measures that mitigate that risk, Mr. Alessandroni said. Its what the commission is supposed to do, taking various elements, like a citys seismic history, into account. And this was not done in LAquila.

Leaflets Sent by Balloon to North Korea Despite Ban, Activists Say

By CHOE SANG-HUN

SEOUL, South Korea Activists said on Monday that they had succeeded in sending large balloons drifting into North Korea carrying tens of thousands of leaflets, despite South Korean police efforts to block the action and a threat from the North Korean government to retaliate with a military attack. The threat of a military clash prompted the South Korean authorities to block the activists, mostly defectors from the North, from reaching Imjingak, a border village northwest of Seoul, where they had planned to release the balloons. Hundreds of South Korean farmers living in nearby villages were ordered to go to bomb shelters, and the alert level was raised all along the border. But the activists said later that they had eluded the police and re-

leased the balloons from an island west of Seoul instead. It was not immediately clear whether the balloons successfully scattered the leaflets over the isolated North, where the government struggles to keep nearly total control on its impoverished populace and bristles at any intrusion of outside news or opinion. There was no immediate response from North Korea. Activist leaflets typically discuss the vast gaps between the economies and living standards in the North and the South, include lurid accounts of the luxuries that the North Korean ruling family enjoys and contradict the Norths official history books, which claim that the Korean War was started by the United States rather than by the Norths invasion of the South in 1950. Some leaflets carry Christian mes-

sages. We could not delay our plans to send the leaflets, because they carry our promise and love for our North Korean brothers, the activists said in a statement posted on the Web site of Free North Korea Radio, a Seoul-based group that seeks to broadcast outside news into the North. Kim Seong-min, the head of the radio group and a leader of the leaflet campaign, criticized the South Korean authorities for blocking the activists from releasing balloons in the border village. South Korea is retreating under a North Korean threat, he said. Once you retreat under this kind of blackmail, you will continue to be pushed back. The North Korean threat of retaliation, issued on Friday, was hardly unprecedented. In recent months, the North has threat-

ened to attack the Seoul office of President Lee Myung-bak, whom it has called a rat, and vowed to bombard the offices of major newspapers and television stations in the South that criticize the North. Still, South Korean police appeared to take the threat seriously, erecting roadblocks, banning tourists and journalists from the area, and scuffling briefly with activists who tried to barge through their cordon. A rival group of activists rallied near the border village, carrying banners that accused the leaflet activists of trying to incite a war between the Koreas. On Monday, Glyn Davies, the top American envoy on North Korean matters, told reporters in Beijing that it was grossly disproportionate for North Korea to have threatened to respond to

balloons with bombs, The Associated Press reported. China, the Norths main ally, welcomed the South Korean governments efforts to check the balloon-flying and urged the Koreas to stay calm and restrained. During the cold war, both Koreas used balloons to send official propaganda leaflets across their heavily fortified frontier, a practice that ended after the first inter-Korean summit meeting in 2000. But in recent years, some defectors began sending propaganda balloons of their own into the North. The latest episode came at a politically delicate time in South Korea, where a presidential election is due in December and the political parties are highly attuned to how a surprise North Korean move might affect the outcome.

LEE JAE-WON/REUTERS

An anti-North Korea leaflet, scattered by activists after the South Korean police blocked them from a border village.

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Lebanon and Jordan illustrated the seepage of violence over the Syrian borders, the revival of the latent sectarian tensions in Lebanon constituted a more combustible threat to regional security. Peter Harling, a Syria researcher for the International Crisis Group, said that over the course of the Syrian conflict, Lebanese factions had adopted an informal dissociation policy to avoid entangling Lebanon. With the Beirut bombing and violent reaction, he said, that ground rule has been broken. Beginning Monday morning, Lebanese military vehicles occupied parts of Beirut and Tripoli where fights had broken out the night before, typically in streets divided by neighbors belonging to rival sects. By early afternoon, all streets were reopened. All that remained were a few smoldering tires, a lingering smell and the debris of overturned trash bins and garbage cans used as road blocks. Residents of Beirut neighborhoods where clashes took place said the antagonists were mostly young men still angry at the killing of General Hassan. With a Sunni officer elite and a mostly Shiite rank-and-file, the Lebanese Army has broken up fights and calmed the streets in

Lebanon and Jordan Move Quickly to Contain Syria-Related Violence

By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and NEIL MacFARQUHAR

BEIRUT, Lebanon Lebanon and Jordan moved aggressively on Monday to squelch the spread of violence from Syrias deadlocked civil war, the most significant register yet of alarm over the strife spilling over Syrian borders. Lebanese Army tanks and armored personnel carriers rolled into the streets of Beirut and Tripoli to stop a night of gunfights as the Lebanese military issued an extraordinary statement urging sectarian and political leaders to refrain from incitement to pull the country back from the brink. The countrys fate is at risk, the statement said. Tension in some areas is increasing to unprecedented levels. In Jordan, the authorities seized a ring of Jordanian extremists suspected of plotting mayhem with munitions from Syria, while Jordanian military skirmishes with suspected Islamic militants traversing the SyriaJordan border left a Jordanian corporal dead the first military casualty suffered by Jordan in connection with the Syria conflict since it began 19 months ago. Fears that the Syrian uprising against President Bashar al-Assad could destabilize the Middle East have been growing for months as the conflict has aggravated sectarian tensions that cut across national boundaries and has sent more 300,000 refugees spilling into Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. But those fears escalated sharply on Friday when a large bomb obliterated a Beirut block, killing eight people including Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan, the top Lebanese security official. The blast was followed by a weekend of roadblocks, sporadic street protests and isolated clashes in Lebanon. General Hassan, the head of internal security, was a hero to many Sunni Muslims, Christians and others here Reporting was contributed by Hwaida Saad and Hania Mourtada in Beirut, Ranya Kadri in Amman, Jordan, and Jodi Rudoren in Jerusalem.

for his efforts to expose assassinations and other political meddling by the Syrian government, which is a close ally of the politically dominant Lebanese Shiite militant group, Hezbollah. Mourners at the generals funeral chanted against Mr. Assad and some waved the flags of the Free Syrian Army battling to oust him. Mr. Assad and much of the ruling elite belong to a sect considered an offshoot of Shiism, while the Free Syrian Army is dominated by Sunnis. The proximity of that conflict and the car bombing that killed the general brought back smoldering grudges but also a feeling of dread left from Lebanons own bloody, 15-year civil war. By Monday night, Lebanese state news media said that at least 4 people were dead, at least 20 injured and nearly 50 under arrest in connection with clashes set off by the Beirut bombing. Three of those killed and most of the injuries were in the northern city of Tripoli near the Syrian border, a flash point with armed groups on both sides of Syrias sectarian divide. In Washington on Monday, a State Department spokesman said that the United States would send an F.B.I. team to help Lebanon investigate the bombing. Although the Hezbollah-dominated government is normally hostile to Washington, Lebanons chief of Internal Security Forces, General Ashraf Rifi, confirmed in a telephone interview that judicial authorities had accepted the F.B.I.s offer of assistance. He said that technical experts from the bureau would arrive within 48 hours to survey the crime scene. In Amman, Jordanian authorities said Monday that soldiers had fought two gun battles overnight against small groups of what the government called Islamist extremists at the SyriaJordan border, arresting 13 of them. The Associated Press reported that the assailants were trying to cross into Syria. The gun battles came hours after the government said it had arrested a ring of 11 Jordanians accused of planning to use explosives and weapons obtained in

FABIO BUCCIARELLI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE GETTY IMAGES

Wounded Syrians were helped onto a truck in Aleppo on Sunday. Fears that the civil war was spreading escalated after a bombing in Beirut on Friday killed a Lebanese general.

The Lebanese Army calls for restraint after a weekend of protest.

recent years. But its military prowess compared with Hezbollah or other militias is uncertain. An undercurrent of anxiety ran through the Lebanese Army statement. The Lebanese Army stresses that security is a red line, the statement said, vowing to prevent Lebanon being transformed again into a place for regional settling of scores, and to prevent the assassination of the martyr Wissam al-Hassan being used to assassinate a whole country. In another context, the statement might have been the harbinger of a coup. But Gen. Hisham Jabber, a retired military spokesman, said the army meant to warn members of the political class not to exploit the situation. That it is enough, they cannot make political gains at the expense of the security of this country, General Jabber said in an interview.

HUSSEIN MALLA/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Sunni gunmen patrolled a street leading to a Shiite neighborhood in Beirut on Monday after a weekend of clashes left at least 4 people dead, at least 20 injured and nearly 50 under arrest.
Syria for terrorist attacks against the American Embassy, shopping malls and other targets. Samih Maayta, Jordans minister of media and communication, said the government had evidence that they had traveled to Syria and planned to go back for munitions to use in the attacks. Mr. Maayta said the group had taken counsel from Al Qaeda in Iraq via the terrorist sites on the Internet, and had posted its plans online to enable others to be able to create the same explosives. Al Qaeda in Iraq is a Sunni insurgent group named after the organization founded by Osama bin Laden, and American intelligence officials have described it as being made up of mostly homegrown Iraqis, with limited foreign leadership. Although the events in both

Irans Political Infighting Erupts in Full View

By THOMAS ERDBRINK

TEHRAN A long and bitter rivalry between Irans president and an influential band of brothers in the political hierarchy exploded into the open on Monday, signaling new fractures in the facade of unity as the country confronts worsening economic conditions and isolation over the disputed Iranian nuclear program. In a letter published by Iranian news sites, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the head of the powerful judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, of protecting certain individuals from prosecution for economic corruption who are widely understood to be high officials, including Ayatollah Larijanis oldest brother. Mr. Ahmadinejad also demanded access to Tehrans Evin prison, to visit one of his aides who has been held for nearly a month. In order to build his case, Mr. Ahmadinejad referred to a range of articles in the Iranian Constitution that explain the powers of the president. The accusation escalated a simmering conflict between Mr. Ahmadinejad and opponents among influential clerics, parliamentarians and commanders. It followed a decision announced on Sunday by Irans judiciary to deny Mr. Ahmadinejad access to the prison a humiliating slap at the presidents authority. Mr. Ahmadinejad had wanted to visit Ali Akbar Javanfekr, his press adviser and former head of the official Islamic Republic News Agency, imprisoned since September on a six-month sentence for having insulted Irans supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr. Javanfekrs arrest and conviction had also been seen as a move to curtail presidential powers. Adding insult to injury, a judiciary statement said Mr. Ahmadinejad had been informed his visit would be inappropriate and divert attention from Irans economic problems. Both Mr. Ahmadinejads government and his opponents have been trying to cast each other as responsible for double-digit inflation, high unemployment and a devaluation of the national currency. These economic indicators have worsened in recent months with the bite of antinuclear sanctions, which have constricted Irans ability to sell oil and do routine banking transactions. The hostility expressed between the countrys highest leaders, at a time of increasing Western pressure, comes despite repeated calls for political unity by

Ayatollah Khamenei. Mr. Ahmadinejad, in his letter, emphasized his position as the most important directly elected official in the country. He also insisted that under Irans Constitution the president has the right to visit a prison. Analysts said Mr. Ahmadinejads public attack on the Larijani brothers reflected his apparent preparation for an increasingly public fight with political enemies. The outcome could determine his influence after his second term ends in July 2013. He is not allowed to run in the June 2013 presidential election. Ahmadinejad has created a win-win situation for himself, said Amir Mohebbian, a political analyst close to Irans supreme leader, referring to the presidents demand to enter the prison. If he is denied access, his opponents will look unreasonable. If he manages to enter Evin, they look weak. Irans political system is structured around a president and

A public rebuke for Ahmadinejad, who fires back at rivals.

Parliament directly elected from a group of candidates vetted by a council of jurists and Islamic experts, some by the supreme leader and others by Parliament. The supreme leader also has a say in appointing other officials and has final word on all important matters. Mr. Ahmadinejads uncompromising management style and choice of controversial advisers has grated on the clerics and led to a debate over his influence. Mr. Ahmadinejad has been defending his inner circle of advisers against accusations of corruption, black magic and espionage for MI6, the British intelligence service. He is also disliked by Iranians who took to the streets after his disputed his reelection victory in 2009. Mr. Ahmadinejad personally prevented an earlier attempt to arrest Mr. Javanfekr, which apparently led the judiciary to take the adviser into custody at the precise moment when the president was addressing the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 26 in New York. Many of the Shiite clerics and commanders who once supported Mr. Ahmadinejads rise to

power have turned into bitter enemies and are hoping Mr. Ahmadinejad will quietly sit out the end of his term. Instead, Mr. Ahmadinejad is increasingly trying to portray himself as a man of the people whose policies are obstructed by long-serving officials with selfish interests. Mr. Ahmadinejad, by referring to many articles of the Constitution in his letter, is underlining that he represents the people, because they elected him, said Nader Karimi Joni, an Iranian journalist who has closely followed the power struggle. After years of accusing former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and his family of corruption, Mr. Ahmadinejad is now increasingly focusing on the influential Larijani family, whose five brothers all have high positions in Irans ruling elite. The judiciary chief was appointed by Irans supreme leader in 2009. An older brother, Ali Larijani, a former top nuclear negotiator, is the head of the Parliament and may run for president next year. Mr. Ahmadinejad recently attacked the Parliament speaker by name at a news conference, saying that Mr. Larijani should help the government instead of trying to blame it for the countrys economic problems. On Monday the Parliament speaker referred to Mr. Ahmadinejad as his dear brother and sought to present the dispute as not personal. Since our country is a democracy, disagreements are good, he said according to the Islamic Students News Agency. The oldest Larijani brother, Mohammad-Javad, frequently appears on American television as the head of Irans human rights council. In July he was accused in documents published by Alef, an official news Web site of land grabbing. The judiciary then blocked the Web site. In his letter on Monday, Mr. Ahmadinejad said the decision to punish his aide was unjust and that he wanted to visit Evin Prison to report to the supreme leader on conditions there and how the nations rights are being preserved, according to the Iranian Students News Agency. Mr. Ahmadinejad also suggested the judiciary had no legal right to stop him. I have to remind you that in the Constitution, there is nothing that requires asking permission or agreement of the judiciary when it comes to exercising the presidents legal duties, the agency quoted his letter as saying.

THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012 FUNAFUTI JOURNAL

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A Tiny Pacific Island Nation That Does Not Smell Like Paradise
By MATT SIEGEL

FUNAFUTI, Tuvalu The sun was setting over the Pacific islet, casting the isolated lagoon in brilliant shades of red, orange and topaz. Towering palm trees swayed slowly in the warm tropical breeze. In the distance, fishermen in a small boat slowly trolled the coral atolls for reef fish, much as the people of Tuvalu have done for hundreds of years. But none of those things made as much of an impression on a visitor as the smell. Household garbage mingled with wastes both human and animal in open pits that, when filled with seawater during high tide, turn into a fetid soup under the blistering sun. Kalalisa Uilese lives with her husband and three children in one of the dozens of precariously balanced stilt houses built over those pits. Theres not enough land, Ms. Uilese, 47, said inside her dark, makeshift living room. Thats why we build our houses on them. Tuvalu, a tiny cluster of nine coral atolls and islands about halfway between Australia and Hawaii in the South Pacific, is one of the smallest countries on the planet and, many scientists say, is getting smaller. It has fewer than 12,000 people, who inhabit a landmass of 10 square miles, less than half the size of Manhattan. On Funafuti, the main atoll and Tuvalus capital, the widest point between the lagoon around which the town spreads and the ocean beyond is about a third of a mile. The lowest point is just above sea level, a spot from which visitors can be tricked into thinking that they are somehow standing below the vast Pacific and looking up rather than out into it. According to data from the United States National Research Council, global sea levels could rise by as much as 55 inches by 2100 as a result of climate change, which, when combined with damage to Tuvalus coral roots from rising acidity in the seawater, could threaten the countrys very existence. Adding to the damage are coastal erosion, a result of rising water and harsh weather as well as excavation for construction and other development projects. As fighting between the United States and Japan raged across the Pacific during World War II,

ANDREW QUILTY

NANUMEA NIUTAO A NANUMANGA

South Pacific Ocean

A girl played by one of the so-called borrow pits in which seawater mixes with waste. As the population of Tuvalu has increased, more houses have gone up alongside and over the pits.
and carted off to be crushed and mixed for the tarmac. The gaping pits that were left across Funafuti, called borrow pits, were never filled and eventually began to be used for refuse. Tuvalus population has doubled since 1980, and as usable land dwindled, homes like Ms. Uileses began to stretch across the pits. For Betty Vuva, 49, the head teacher at Nauti Primary School, the borrow pits and their attendant health problems are a constant source of anxiety. As the changing tides have steadily encroached on the island, she said, land around the pits has become more crowded. Well, so far no houses have collapsed, Ms. Vuva said with a wry laugh. The government of Tuvalu, which survives on a combination of foreign aid and dividends from the 1998 sale of the .tv Internet domain name, has repeatedly asked the United States for help in refilling the borrow pits. In 2003, the Army Corps of Engineers carried out a site assessment and cost study. Solid waste disposal sites surrounding residential homes and animals have developed into a health hazard for nearby residents, the report said. An engineered solid waste landfill site and management plan needs to be implemented for the safety of the people and longevity of the island. The report offered three options for refilling the pits, ranging in cost from $14,950 to $28.5 million, but nothing else has been done. Tuvalu, which has an annual gross domestic product of about $35 million, says it is illequipped to act on the report on its own. The government has never had the financial resources needed to fill in the borrow pits, Prime Minister Willy Telavi said in an e-mail. We just dont have the money. Not even close. He added: Over the years we have approached many donor countries, including the U.S., about filling in the borrow pits but without success. If the U.S., which to us has always been the likely donor to fix the problem, was willing to revisit the issue of filling in the borrow pits we would welcome their efforts with open arms. That seems unlikely, at least in the short term, according to a senior United States official who cited the costs of carrying out the project using environmentally sound methods. The official requested anonymity on the grounds of lacking authorization to speak publicly. In order not to cause further environmental damage to the land or surrounding seas, material may have to be imported, which would increase the cost considerably, the official wrote

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the British government granted the United States military the use of its colony of what is now Tuvalu but was known then as the Ellice Islands. Antiaircraft guns were quickly erected, and the concrete base of at least one still stands in the surf. But to reach their full wartime potential, the islands needed an airstrip. Large quantities of coral were dug up

in an e-mail. We continue to work on this with the government of Tuvalu and we look forward to finding a mutually acceptable, affordable and environmentally responsible solution. For James Conway, 53, an adviser on energy policy in the Tuvulu government, that kind of solution has already been too long in coming. Mr. Conway, an American who moved to Tuvalu as a Peace Corps volunteer more than 20 years ago, is married to a Tuvaluan woman and the couple has a teenage daughter. He worries about the health effects of the borrow pits. People in greater numbers are starting to build next to them, over them and in them with houses on stilts, Mr. Conway said in an interview inside his sweltering office at the islands main government building. However, he dismissed the idea that Washington somehow owes it to Tuvalu to fill in the pits, pointing out that the runway has brought enormous economic benefits to the country. The idea of the Americans filling in the borrow pits as some kind of war reparations is probably stretching it a little bit, Mr. Conway said. Still, he added, If the borrow pits could be filled in, there would be economic value associated with it. It would dramatically improve public health by decreasing waterborne illnesses. For Ravina Falemi, 27, and her three small daughters, that would be a blessing. On a recent afternoon she stood holding her youngest daughter, Emma, as about a dozen half-naked children splashed around in a pits acrid water. One small boy stood on the narrow dirt path leading to the cluster of homes where Ms. Falemi lives, fishing in the muck with a homemade rod. The common sickness is diarrhea, Ms. Falemi said. We always advise the children not to come here because of that, but sometimes small kids wash their hands in it and then come home and take a biscuit or something. The United States should help with the pits, she said, but she was far less certain when asked if she thought anyone would do anything about them. Who knows? she replied. Maybe well just migrate for good.

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THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Head of BBC Program Resigns Over an Episode He Chose Not to Broadcast

By ALAN COWELL and JOHN F. BURNS

LONDON Seeking to quell a growing uproar over its mishandling and possible cover-up of sexual abuse allegations, the British Broadcasting Corporation broadcast a highly critical examination Monday night of what one insider called the worst crisis in half a century to afflict the BBC, a national institution once viewed as an emblem of ethical probity. The unusual spectacle of one BBC show broadcasting a hardedged look at the journalistic integrity of another reflected the sense of crisis across Britain, as journalists, school officials, politicians and others question whether they did enough to stop decades of widely-rumored abuse by Jimmy Savile, a high-profile television personality and disc jockey known also for his philanthropy, who is accused of victimizing some 200 girls. Previous BBC associates of Mr. Savile who appeared on the Panorama investigative program spoke of their suspicions about him even of his seeming boasting about what he had done and of their failure to expose him. Bob Langley, a former reporter who covered a charity run in which Mr Savile participated, said he saw girls of 12 or 13, they could have been 14 emerging from Mr. Saviles trailer at the event. After they had gone he indicated to me in a nudge, nudge, Ravi Somaiya contributed reporting.

wink, wink sort of way that he had just had sex with them, Mr. Langley said. Supposing I had gone to the police or to the BBC, what would have happened? Mr. Langley went on. The answer is nothing would have happened. He would have said it was a joke, cant you take a joke. And that would have been it. A former disc jockey, Paul Gambaccini, told Panorama: This horror, for that is what it was, took place while all of society was watching. But because it was off the scale of everybodys belief system, they didnt really come to terms with it. The events recalled in some ways earlier turmoil at the BBC after the 2003 invasion of Iraq when a BBC reporter accused the government of embellishing intelligence information about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. That crisis cost the corporations director general and the chairman of the board of governors their jobs in early 2004. But, for some, the latest scandal surpassed those events by far. This is the worst crisis that I can remember in my nearly 50 years at the BBC, John Simpson, a veteran BBC foreign correspondent, told the Panorama investigative program late Monday during its hourlong scrutiny of events at the often hard-hitting Newsnight program. All we have as an organization is the trust of the people the people that watch us and listen to us and if we dont have that, if we start to lose that, thats very dangerous I

PETER MACDIARMID/GETTY IMAGES

The BBC has come under fire for not showing a report on abuse allegations against Jimmy Savile, a now-deceased celebrity.
think for the BBC. Prime Minister David Cameron called on the BBC Monday to address the serious questions surrounding its handling of the affair, after the broadcaster announced that Peter Rippon, the editor of the flagship Newsnight news program was stepping aside after giving an inaccurate or incomplete account of why he abandoned an journalistic investigation into Mr. Savile, who died last year at 84. The political thrust of the Panorama program concerned the decision to cancel the Newsnight investigation. But much of it also evoked the intermingling of Mr. Saviles flamboyant and in its day, glamorous lifestyle with what has been depicted as his using his privileged access to lure vulnerable young people into situations where he could abuse them. Television footage from decades ago showed Mr. Saviles white Rolls Royce convertible in which girls from Duncroft school were taken for rides into the countryside. Archive film showed Mr. Savile jogging or cycling to promote charities, followed by a trailer in which abuse was said to have taken place. Other footage showed Mr. Savile cozying up to on-stage audiences of young girls. While the tally of suspected exploitation has been primarily of girls, a former Boy Scout, his identity disguised, said on the program that he had been abused as young boy in return for a reward badge from one of Mr. Sav-

iles shows. Smoking long cigars and wearing his peroxide blond hair at collar length, Mr. Savile was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II and regarded by some as a national treasure until the scandal broke this month, with a documentary on a rival channel, ITV. Mr. Savile is accused of abusing teenage girls in hospitals and childrens homes and on the premises of the BBC, a public broadcaster financed by compulsory license fees from viewers. The police said Friday that more than 200 potential victims had come forward, more than tripling the number of suspected cases. In a statement on Monday, the BBC said that Mr. Rippons explanation that theNewsnight segment on Mr. Savile was dropped purely as a matter of news judgment was inaccurate or incomplete in some respects. It said Mr. Rippon would step aside while an investigation was conducted by Nick Pollard, the former head of Sky News. Much of the scandal revolves around events at the Duncroft School for emotionally disturbed teenage girls. The school, located in an 18th-century manor house near Staines in Surrey, has since been closed. Panorama quoted Newsnight journalists as saying that they had worked on the investigation of Mr. Savile for a month and that they were close to a proposed broadcast date when their editor told them to stop. Mr. Rippon had responded enthusiastically to their work just days before he killed the story. The journalists had filmed an interview with an important witness, Karin Ward, who said that she had been sexually abused by Mr. Savile during her time at Duncroft. In the examination of the decision to kill the show, Panorama quoted Liz MacKean, a Newsnight reporter, as saying: I was very unhappy the story didnt run, because I felt wed spoken to people who collectively deserved to be heard, and they werent heard, and I thought that was a failing. I felt very much that Id let them down. Referring to Mr. Rippons attitude toward the story, Ms. McKean said: All I can say is that it was an abrupt change in tone from, you know, one day, Excellent, lets prepare to get this thing on air to Hold on. Meirion Jones, the producer of the Newsnight program, told Panorama that he warned Mr. Rippon on Dec. 7, 2011, of what he feared would happen if the show was canceled. I was sure the story would come out one way or another and

that, if it did, the BBC would be accused of a cover-up, he said in an excerpt from the Panorama program released ahead of the main broadcast. In fact I wrote an e-mail to Peter saying, The story is strong enough, and the danger of not running it is substantial damage to BBC reputation. The accusations against Mr. Savile have stunned many Britons, shattering the public image of a television personality who for decades attracted a young audience through his role as host of two popular BBC programs Top of the Pops, a music chart countdown show, and Jimll Fix It, in which Mr. Savile promised to grant viewers wishes. The circumstances surrounding Mr. Rippons decision to halt work on the Savile expos, which he said he made on his own, exposed the BBC to attack both from members of Parliament, who are holding a hearing on the matter Tuesday, and from its own governing body. The BBC Trust, the corpora-

Tough questions for a media outlet after it cancels a report on abuse accusations.
tions governing body, said it was deeply concerning that there have been inaccuracies in the BBCs own description of what happened in relation to the Newsnight investigation. Newsnight canceled the segment at about the same time that other departments at the corporation were broadcasting three tributes to Mr. Savile. The director general of the BBC at the time the segment was canceled was Mark Thompson, the incoming president and chief executive of The New York Times Company. In a letter sent to members of Parliament earlier this month, a BBC spokeswoman said that neither Mr. Thompson nor George Entwistle, his successor as director general of the broadcaster, was involved in the Newsnight decision. On Oct. 13, Mr. Thompson said: I was not notified or briefed about the Newsnight investigation, nor was I involved in any way in the decision not to complete and air the investigation. I have no reason to doubt the public statement by the programs editor, Peter Rippon, that the decision not to pursue the investigation was entirely his, and that it was made solely for journalistic reasons.

World Briefing
EUROPE

Russia: An Opposition Figure Says He Was Tortured

A political opposition figure who vanished in Ukraine on Friday after seeking asylum at a United Nations office reappeared on Sunday night outside a Moscow courthouse, where he shouted that he had been kidnapped and tortured. The man, Leonid Razvozzhaev, was on the run from the Russian authorities after a televised documentary accused him of seeking funds from Georgia to help topple President Vladimir V. Putin. A Russian official said Monday that Mr. Razvozzhaev had turned himself in and confessed to plotting riots, among other things. Mr. Razvozzhaevs supporters said that any confession had been coerced. On Sunday, the online news site Life News posted a video showing him being put into a police car. They tortured me for two days, kidnapped me DAVID M. HERSZENHORN in Ukraine, he shouted.

ASIA

China: Leftists Express Support for Disgraced Politician

Dozens of leftists signed an open letter to Wu Bangguo, the chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress, asking him not to expel Bo Xilai, the former party secretary of Chongqing, from the congress. Expulsion would clear the way for Mr. Bos prosecution on several charges, including obstructing the investigation of a murder for which his wife has been convicted. None of the letters signers appeared to be prominent officials. The letter was sent to Red China, a leftist Web KEITH BRADSHER site. Access to the site is blocked in China.

China: A Tibetan Protester Sets Himself on Fire

A Tibetan man, Dhondup, is believed to have died after he set himself on fire on Monday at a monastery in a Tibetan region of western China to protest Chinese rule, according to Free Tibet, an advocacy group based in London. The protest took place at Labrang Monastery, in a town that the Chinese call Xiahe, in Gansu Province. Nearly 60 Tibetans have set themselves on fire since 2009. EDWARD WONG

MIDDLE EAST

Yemen: Al Qaeda Denies Report of a Deputys Death

A man claiming to be Al Qaedas No. 2 in Yemen, Saeed al-Shihri, released an audio tape denying reports that he was killed last month in an American drone attack. The authenticity of the clip could not be confirmed. It was produced by Al Qaedas media arm in Yemen and posted on militant Web sites late Sunday. Yemeni officials had claimed that Mr. Shihri and six others were killed in a Sept. 10 drone strike. (AP)

THE AMERICAS

Cuba: Castro Says Hes Fine and Pokes Fun at Rumors

Fidel Castro, rumored to have suffered a debilitating stroke or perhaps to have died, sent a message to the world on Monday: I dont even remember what a headache feels like. So said an article under his name, cheekily titled Fidel Castro Is Dying and published on the state Web site Cubadebate, accompanied by several photographs that appeared to have been taken recently. In one, he is shown holding a copy of Fridays issue of the state newspaper, Granma. Mr. Castro said he had been dealing with untruths spread by the imperialist propaganda machine since the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961. RANDAL C. ARCHIBOLD

THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A9

In Israel, Carter Derides Netanyahu and Obama

Says Two-State Solution in Death Throes
By JODI RUDOREN

JERUSALEM Three decades after leaving the White House, former President Jimmy Carter still functions inside the trappings of power, cruising through fiercely contested areas of this city on Monday in a 12-car motorcade, with Secret Service agents stationed strategically as he surveyed the view from the Mount of Olives. But at 88, Mr. Carter, trying to nudge his agenda without an official platform, no longer filters his words for politics or diplomacy. On Monday, he ramped up his years of criticism of Israeli policy by saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lacked the courage of his predecessors and that he had abandoned the twostate solution that has been the accepted framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades. And just two weeks before the American election, he was almost as critical of President Obama, saying his administration has shirked the historical role played by the United States in the region. I dont think theres any doubt that Netanyahu has decided the one-state option is the one hes going to pursue, Mr. Carter said, despite Mr. Netanyahus professed commitment to two states, notably in a 2009 speech at Bar Ilan University. As for Mr. Obama, a fellow Democrat, the former president said, The U.S. government policy the last two to three years has basically been a rapid withdrawal from any kind of controversy. He added: Every president has been a very powerful factor here in advocating this two-state solution. That is now not apparent. Mr. Carter was here with the former prime minister of Norway, Gro Harlem Brundtland, and the former president of Ireland, Mary Robinson, on behalf of the Elders, a group of 10 leftleaning minences grises convened by Nelson Mandela in 2007

that aims to promote human rights and world peace by, according to its Web site, speaking difficult truths and tackling taboos. Mr. Carter and Ms. Brundtland met with President Shimon Peres of Israel on Sunday, and all three met with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority on Monday, consulting in between with like-minded Palestinian and Israeli intellectuals. On Wednesday, they are scheduled to see Egypts new Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi. A born-again Christian who served a single term as president from 1977 to 1981, Mr. Carter said he has been to Israel and the Palestinian territories about 30 times. He recalled swimming in the Dead Sea on his first visit, in 1973, and noted that there were then about 1,500 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, compared with the 350,000 living there now. And he has long been an outspoken critic of Israeli policy, particularly in his 2007 book, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid. But Mr. Carter said Monday that the situation is worse now than its ever been for the Palestinians because of the expanding settlements and lack of prospects for change. Describing himself as grieved, disgusted and angry, he said the two-state solution is in death throes, which he called a tragic new development that the world is kind of ignoring. Surveys show Palestinians and Israelis overwhelmingly support a two-state solution, but intellectuals on both sides have increasingly been talking about a binational, single state. But models for such a state generally either imagine Israel losing its Jewish character, or ruling over a Palestinian majority in an undemocratic way. Mr. Carter called the onestate option a catastrophe not for the Palestinians, for Israel. As Ray Dolphin of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs pointed out Jewish homes in the Palestinian neighborhood of

RINA CASTELNUOVO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Former President Jimmy Carter in Jerusalem on Monday. He is visiting on behalf of the Elders, a left-leaning human rights group.
Sheikh Jarrah, and Hagit Ofran of Peace Nows Settlement Watch Project described Israels tourism development around the Old City, Mr. Carter seemed to have heard it all before. When Ms. Ofran said there are more powers fighting against Israels policies, he shook his head. The United States used to be major obstacle to Israeli expansion now the United States is quite dormant, he said. I dont really detect the forces. Theyre not in Europe. Theyre not in the United States. Theyre not in the Arab world. On Sunday evening, he convened a dinner with Avraham Burg, a former member of Parliament now running a liberal research group; Mahdi Abdul Hadi, the head of a leading Palestinian research group; Nabil Shaath, the Palestinian official in charge of international relations; and Alon Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to Turkey and South Africa. Mr. Burg said Mr. Carter dominated the three-hour conversation and displayed impeccable knowledge of the intricacies of the situation. Mr. Abdul Hadi said the former president urged the Palestinians to follow through on their bid for statehood at the United Nations a move the Obama administration opposes and to reconcile the rift between the Fatah faction, which dominates in the West Bank, and Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip. This is important, to get the Israeli and Palestinian intelligentsia to think out loud and not to carry on the rhetoric and the slogans, to do something, Mr. Abdul Hadi said. Call it Carters wake-up call in Jerusalem. The question: Is he meeting Netanyahu? No. Mr. Carter said the Elders had in the past been turned down for meetings even with members of Mr. Netanyahus cabinet. When he last spoke with Mr. Netanyahu Mr. Carter could not

A frequent critic of Israeli policy says he is grieved, disgusted and angry.

remember whether it was around the 1999 funeral of Jordans King Hussein or the 1995 memorial for Yitzhak Rabin, the assassinated Israeli prime minister he said I had betrayed Israel by giving Egypt the Sinai Desert, recalled the former president, who arbitrated the 1979 Camp David accords between Israel and Egypt. Mark Regev, a spokesman for Mr. Netanyahu, said the prime minister denied that such a conversation took place. Mr. Regev pointed to Mr. Netanyahus 2009 speech calling for two states and said he has repeatedly expressed his readiness for direct Israeli-Palestinian peace talks without any preconditions what-

soever in order to advance that goal. Those who want to see peace advanced should be asking the Palestinian leadership why they continue to boycott the negotiations, he said in a statement. The prime minister has consistently initiated confidence-building measures, he added, citing the reduction of roadblocks, the advancement of funds and the issuance of work permits, among other measures. But Mr. Carter blamed Mr. Netanyahu for the stalemate. Ive known every prime minister since Golda Meir, he said, ticking off experiences with Menachem Begin, Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak. All the previous prime ministers have been so courageous in their own way. In the past, all committed to the two states. It looks to me like a decision has been made, he added, to go to the one-state solution but to conceal it from the world.

Stung by Criticism, Russian Lawmakers Point to Human Rights Abuses in U.S.

By ELLEN BARRY

MIKHAIL EVSTAFIEV/REUTERS

Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan in 1988. There is a renewed push to find those unaccounted for.

Russians Seek Fate of Missing Soldiers

From Page A4 son, our brother, dead? Or is there a chance he has adopted a new life? What is it they say: the war isnt over until the last soldier comes home? said Lt. Col. Dmitry Priymachuk, the Russian Embassys assistant military attach, as he showed in a visitor. Similar questions have driven a long campaign within the United States to find the dead and missing from the Vietnam era. That the Russian Embassy opened its doors to reporters was a measure of the importance that the missing in Afghanistan still hold for former Soviet republics that are still wrestling with the Afghan wars legacy. Several Afghan journalists snapped pictures or recorded video as they walked through the lush rose garden and into the dignified marble reception room of a compound that is usually off limits. The embassy, one of the larger diplomatic installations in Kabul, has been there for many years, but was evacuated in 1992, after it came under fire during an intensified Afghan civil war. It was officially reopened in 2007, as the Russians cautiously began forging a new relationship with Afghanistan. The present ambassador, Andrey Avetisyan, is a longtime Afghan hand; he was here in the early 1980s, and again when the embassy was evacuated in the 90s. Fluent in Pashto and Dari as well as English, he co-hosted the news conference, taking questions in Dari. Mr. Lavrentyev emphasized the importance of acting now because those who remember the war are dying. In Afghanistan, life expectancy for men is barely 50 years. Mr. Lavrentyev said that of the nearly 300 Soviet soldiers missing at the time of the withdrawal, 29 have been found. Twenty-two of them returned to Russia; the other seven chose to remain in Afghanistan. The committee has also exhumed 15 remains, and five of them have been identified: three Russians and two Kazakhs. Extensive DNA testing and matching is being done on the remains of the other 10 to determine their identity. The remains of three were buried this year: Sergey Kolesov of St. Petersburg, and Alexey Zyev Jawad Sukhanyar contributed reporting. and Abdulhakim Ezgeshov of Kazakhstan. Mr. Ezgeshov, a Muslim, was buried with the proper Islamic rites, Mr. Lavrentyev said. He seemed to want to emphasize to the mostly Afghan audience that whatever Afghans might believe about Russians, they respected Islam and wanted to do right by all their soldiers regardless of their background. A number of Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan were Muslims, often from republics on Afghanistans borders. For them the war was particularly emotionally fraught, as they were compelled to fight Afghan Muslims who believed they were engaged in a holy war. Some defectors came from such backgrounds, but a number of those who ended up staying in Afghanistan were ethnic Russians, many of whom felt compelled to convert to Islam. Among the most famous was a man known as Islamuddin, who converted and married an Afghan and became a bodyguard to Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Tajik commander who was a fierce opponent of the Taliban. Islamuddin has returned to Russia with his wife, who is being treated in a Russian hospital, and family, said Mr. Lavrentyev, who said Islamuddin had helped him locate potential areas of excavation in Panjshir and Parwan Provinces, where Massoud was active. Mr. Lavrentyev estimates there are 30 to 40 others who stayed and are still living somewhere in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

Names of the Dead

The Department of Defense has identified 2,124 American service members who have died as a part of the Afghan war and related operations. It confirmed the death of the following American recently:
WILSON, Shane G., 20, Pfc., Army; Kuna, Idaho; 101st Airborne Division.

MOSCOW During a day of old-school America-bashing in the Russian Parliament on Monday, a series of lawmakers took the podium to catalog rights violations perpetrated by Americans over the years, including waterboarding, Ku Klux Klan lynchings and the abuse of children adopted from Russia. Mondays parliamentary hearing, titled On Problems in the Observation of Human Rights by the United States of America, was the first of its kind since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and comes as Russias leaders employ progressively colder statements toward the United States. The shift in tone is equal and opposite to one that took place in 2009, when President Obama was making overtures to Russia and perceptions of the United States began to warm up. These days, hawkish commentators are back on the air, accusing Washington of supporting political forces opposed to President Vladimir V. Putin. Mondays hearings were reminiscent of Soviet days, when the Young Communist League organized rallies in support of Angela Davis, the radical activist. Since 1987, we really had major movement forward, and these propagandistic cold war stereotypes very quickly collapsed, said Sergei M. Rogov, director of the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies. Now sometimes I have the perception that like Rip van Winkle, I am waking up and it is Reagan and Andropov. By cataloging grave issues like the death penalty and detentions at Guantnamo Bay, the speakers on Monday seemed focused on challenging the moral authority of the West to criticize Russias human rights record. Western criticism has intensified lately: the European Parliament is scheduled to debate a proposal to establish visa restrictions for Russian officials involved in the death of Sergei L. Magnitsky, a lawyer who died in pretrial custody in 2009 after he tried to investigate official corruption. A similar measure is under consideration in the United States Congress. Aleksei K. Pushkov, the head of the State Dumas foreign affairs committee, said debates about human rights have become a constant feature of Russias relations with the West since the fall of Communism, and that Russia would no longer listen passively. He said Russia had spoiled the Americans by re-

maining silent on their human rights violations for 20 years. Yeltsin wanted to make Clinton laugh, and he laughed at all of us, Mr. Pushkov said of the relationship between Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris N. Yeltsin. We wanted to win their trust and approval, and they became used to this, so today, when we speak of flagrant violations of human rights in the U.S.A., they are experiencing shock that we dare to do this. But we are one of the leading countries of the world, and we have the right to do this. The most disturbing presentation came from Pavel Astakhov, Russias ombudsman for childrens rights, who described in detail abuse of Russian children adopted by American families. Cases of death are not common Mr. Astakhov counted 19 since

A shift in tone from recent years, reminiscent of the cold war days.
adoptions by Americans began but the descriptions are agonizing. Mr. Astakhov said abusive parents have been given mild punishments because American courts view Russian children as inferior. The basis of the jurys verdict was an interesting one, he said sardonically, referring to a verdict in the case of a parent whose adopted 7-year-old died of brain trauma. The boy was born in Russia, the boy was an orphan who was brought up in an orphanage, he has bad genetics, because in fact all Russian orphans are genetically underdeveloped, have an inclination to drug addiction, stealing, self-harm. It turns out the boy beat himself to death on an iron stove. Among the speakers was the nationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who said that anti-Russian propaganda in the United States had its roots in Jewish emigration. There are 10 million of them there who came from the Soviet Union and new Russia, and they are all prejudiced against our country, he said. All of them influence public opinion, the lawyers, the newspapers, and that is where the intensity of the antiRussian mood comes from. He was one of several speakers to

note that the United States ambassador to Moscow, Michael A. McFaul, had not accepted an invitation to attend. It would be unpleasant for him to hear two hours of criticism of his country, Mr. Zhirinovsky. But his diplomats are recording it, they will let him know, and today his lunch will be spoiled. As lawmakers filed out of the hearing, some marveled at the shift in the political atmosphere. Vyacheslav N. Tetyotkin, a deputy from the Communist Party, said such a hearing would have been unthinkable two years ago, when United Russia, the governing party, sought to prevent legislators from other parties from making statements unfriendly toward the United States. And suddenly, this same ruling party holds a parliamentary hearing on the violation of human rights in the United States, he said. Mr. Tetyotkin said that what changed was the mood within the Russian elite, who now realized that their American counterparts would not treat Russia as an equal partner, but as if it were Gambia or something. As well-informed people will tell you, Mr. Medvedev had a slightly different political orientation, much closer to the United States, he said, referring to the Mr. Putins protg, Dmitri A. Medvedev, who left the presidency in May to allow Mr. Putin to serve a third term. Mr. Putin positions himself, though I do not like this term much, as a Russian nationalist. The audience at Mondays hearing consisted largely of invited students, and some emerged upset by the catalog of abuses they had heard. Already, opinions in Russia have been changing since last fall. A poll released in September by the Levada Center, a Moscow-based polling agency, showed positive feelings toward the United States had fallen from 67 percent a year ago to 46 percent today. The hearing left some more convinced. The way they humiliated those children, it is horrible, said Emilia Galimova, 21, a law student. They tell us that they are the parents of democracy, and that we should learn from them, but they are not paying attention to what is going on in their own country.

Watch The Times. NYTimes.com/Video.

A10

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

FiveThirtyEight

Cutting To the Chase: What Are The Odds?

By NATE SILVER

The bad news for President Obama: it has been almost a week since the second presidential debate, in Hempstead, N.Y., one that instant-reaction polls said was a narrow victory for him, but there is little sign that this has translated into a bounce in his head-to-head polls against Mitt Romney. Instead, the presidential race may have settled into a period of relative stability, with the average of national polls showing a virtually tied race. There is bad news for Mr. Romney as well, however. The new normal of the presidential campaign is considerably more favorable for him than the environment before the first debate, in Denver. However, it is one in which he still seems to be trailing, by perhaps two percentage points, in the states that are most vital in the Electoral College, the tipping point states. Among the battleground states, Mr. Obama could win the Electoral College by taking Ohio, Wisconsin and either Iowa or Nevada. The FiveThirtyEight forecast shows the president with a 1.5-point margin in Iowa and a 2.1-point margin in Nevada. In Ohio, it gives Mr. Obama an advantage of 1.7 points, and in Wisconsin a 2.9-point advantage. If you accept the premise that Mr. Obama is ahead by some small margin in the tipping-point states, as the consensus of polls finds, it then becomes a question of how much doubt you should have about that advan-

Anything can happen on Election Day, but the numbers offer a clue.
tage given the intrinsic uncertainty in polling. Saying that the race could go either way is an obviously correct statement but also one devoid of insight. We dare to pose a more difficult question, the one that a gambler or an investor might naturally ask: what are the odds? We calculate Mr. Obamas odds of re-election as being about two chances out of three. That estimate might seem to be incongruous with national polls that show an even race. But what appears to be a tied race in national polls could fairly easily be a two-point lead for Mr. Obama or Mr. Romney based on statistical variance alone. Furthermore, the FiveThirtyEight method is, principally, an Electoral College simulation, and therefore relies more heavily on state-by-state polls than national ones, which are not all that precise as a matter of either theory or practice. Our estimates of the popular vote in the critical states are highly similar to those of other Web sites that use different methods to calculate them. Still, it is important to emphasize that saying Mr. Romney is the underdog is not the same as saying that he will lose. If we calculated the odds correctly, he has a substantial chance of winning. If the set of candidates you have listed as 67 percent favorites in fact win 95 percent of the time, or 100 percent of the time, you have done something wrong. Over the long run, such candidates should win two out of three times no less and no more. There remains an outside chance that the race will break clearly toward one or the other candidate, after the third debate on Monday or because of some intervening news event, but the odds are strong that we will wake up on Nov. 6 with a reasonable degree of doubt about the winner. For that matter, we may wake up on Nov. 7 still uncertain about who won. While we can stipulate that the race is very close, however, the central reason we see Mr. Obama as the modest favorite is simple: he seems to hold a slight advantage right now in enough states to carry 270 electoral votes.

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE GETTY IMAGES

AHEAD OF THE RUSH

Casting a ballot in Washington on Monday, the first day of early voting in the nations capital.

POLITICAL MEMO

An Unseen Force Looms Large Over the Race

By JOHN HARWOOD

FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silvers blog on polling and the November elections:
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

He does not speak on the stump or appear in television ads. Campaign audiences rarely hear his name. But aside from President Obama and Mitt Romney, no one has shaped the 2012 election more than George W. Bush on the economy and on the foreign policy issues in the spotlight during the final presidential debate on Monday. For Mr. Romney, the battered reputation of Mr. Bush represents a burden to minimize in a tight race for the White House. The two have not appeared together this year. When an audience member asked about Mr. Bush in the debate last week, Mr. Romney separated himself from what he characterized as Mr. Bushs shortcomings on the budget deficit and on trade with China. For Mr. Obama, Mr. Bushs economic record offers a shield against voters wrath over high unemployment and slow growth; majorities in polls describe the nations economic woes as something the incumbent inherited rather than caused. Mr. Obama benefits, too, from Americans weariness with the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Mr. Bush initiated. By winding them down and by succeeding where Mr. Bush failed in hunting down Osama bin Laden Mr. Obama has lately won higher marks from voters on foreign policy than on his job performance over all. Both the president and Mr. Romney tried to use Mr. Bush to their advantage in Monday nights debate. Mr. Obama said his opponent had praised George Bush as a good economic steward and Dick Cheney as somebody who shows great wisdom and judgment. But it was their strategies, the president suggested, that got us into this mess. Mr. Romney, referring to the governments bailout of the auto industry, said Mr. Bush wrote the first checks. Mr. Romney said he disagreed with that and would have preferred a managed bankruptcy instead. The whole situation has become an awkward one for Bush loyalists active in the Republican campaign this year, one they like to avoid. I have no interest in participating in this silly exercise, Karl Rove, a former Bush strategist who now leads Republican super PAC efforts to aid Mr. Romney, said in declining to be interviewed about Mr. Bushs influence on this election. He left it to Democrats to assess

his former bosss impact, and they were more willing to speak. Theres no question that George Bush tarnished the Republican brand nationally on both national security and the economy, said Mark Mellman, a pollster for many Democratic candidates, including John Kerry, Mr. Bushs opponent in 2004. Republicans are living with that problem. Less than four years after Mr. Bush left the White House, the problem is at

Bush as both a burden to minimize and an economic shield.

once pervasive and inconspicuous as the former president has been since he left the White House. As he put it in a rare interview this summer, I crawled out of the swamp of Washington. He hardly ever comes up in focus groups, said a top campaign adviser for Mr. Bush who asked not to be named. When voters think about the Republican Partys identity today, they

are more likely to point toward the Tea Party movement. But because of Mr. Bush, the adviser added, voters give Mr. Obama a great deal of slack in assigning responsibility for the weak economy. Democratic strategists echo the point. I just dont see how Obama could have survived these economic conditions without that history, said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster and a former adviser to Bill Clinton. Mr. Obama casts Mr. Romneys policies as like Mr. Bushs but as even further to the right, on taxes, regulation and a predilection for military confrontation with other countries. He generally does not mention Mr. Bushs name, to avoid the appearance of trying too hard to pass blame to his predecessor. The issue isnt to relitigate the Bush years, said David Axelrod, the presidents political strategist. Its to make the case that we shouldnt relive them. Mr. Romney has the tricky task of trying to mobilize the same conservative Republicans who backed Mr. Bush while casting his policies as a departure. With Democrats charging that his economic plan is like Mr. Bushs tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 on steroids, Mr. Romney says his tax proposal is not

JIM YOUNG/REUTERS

George W. Bush, shown in 2007 during his second term as president, has not made any appearances this year with Mitt Romney, a fellow Republican.

like anything thats been tried before, because it couples rate reductions with the elimination of some deductions. President Bush and I are different people, and these are different times, Mr. Romney said in the debate last week. On trade, he said: Ill crack down on China. President Bush didnt. On the deficit, he said: Im going to get us to a balanced budget. President Bush didnt. Separating himself from unpopular aspects of Mr. Bushs interventionist national security posture can prove complicated for Mr. Romney, who lacks foreign policy experience. Advised by some Bush administration veterans, Mr. Romney uses muscular language while depicting Mr. Obama as weak in projecting Americas leadership. Yet he embraces Mr. Obamas plan to end the war in Afghanistan by removing troops in 2014. For now, at least, that stance reflects the Bush administrations legacy on American opinion. Whoevers elected is going to have to live with the reality of what you might call intervention fatigue, said Richard N. Haass, a State Department aide under Mr. Bush who now serves as the president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Theres a real sense that our military interventions have not produced results that are in any way commensurate with their human and economic costs. Mr. Bushs former aides chafe at criticism of his record from fellow Republicans, as well as from Democrats. Tony Fratto, a spokesman in the Bush White House and the Treasury Department, rebutted both of Mr. Romneys barbs from the debate last week. There are good reasons why we didnt balance the budget, like the fight against terrorism, Mr. Fratto said. On trade, we were very effective with the Chinese in paving the way for a rise in the value of its currency, to the benefit of American businesses. But like his former boss, who has offered only a cursory endorsement of Mr. Romney, he prefers not to say too much. I take my lead from President Bush, said Mr. Fratto, who is now a partner in the consulting firm Hamilton Place Strategies. Hes not interested in making it more difficult for the Republican nominee to get elected. Well work with the historians, he added, and let candidates be candidates.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A11

EL ECTION 2012
NEWS ANALYSIS

Romney Shifts to Center; Obama Tries to Tie Him To Policies Under Bush
na instead of selling cars to China, Mr. Obama argued, before the two men engaged in a now-familiar argument over whether Mr. Romneys call for allowing General Motors to head into bankruptcy, without government investment, would have weakened Detroit. On most of the specifics they argued about, Mr. Romney had a hard time explaining how he would act differently from Mr. Obama. He said he would not send the American military into Syria, or even attempt a no-fly zone over the county. Though he noted several times that 30,000 people had died in the Syrian uprising, he said: I dont want to have our military involved in Syria. I dont think theres a necessity to put our military in Syria at this stage. It was Mr. Obama, oddly enough, who made the case for the use of force, saying he had made the call to hunt down Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya, and noting that Mr. Romney had called that mission creep and mission muddle. Mr. Romneys response was to argue that he was better suited to rein in the chaos in the Arab world, mostly by projecting American strength. But he was less than specific about how he would accomplish that task. For example, when Mr. Schieffer asked him whether he would have stuck with Mubarak, referring to Hosni Mubarak, the former president of Egypt and longtime American ally, Mr. Romney said that the idea of him crushing his people was not something that we could possibly support. What Mr. Obama lacked was a better vision of the future for the Middle East, he said. It was on the confrontation that could well erupt in 2013, the nuclear face-off with Iran, that the friction between these two men, and their underlying agreement on tactics, became most evident. Asked whether there was a deal to be had with Iran, Mr. Obama argued that the country was weaker than ever because he had invoked crippling sanctions as RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES a result of painsMitt Romneys main challenge was trying taking work that to show how he would differ from his rival. began the day we got into office. killing bad guys, Mr. Romney ar- But he was elusive about what gued several times, saying he exactly Iran would have to do to would provide aid to build up deconvince him that it had given up mocracies and discourage terror- any plan to build a nuclear weapism something he rarely ons capability, simply vowing, stressed before. He frequently Were not going to let up the talked of bringing about a pressure until we have clear evipeaceful planet. dence that the Iranians are Yet time and again, the presibacking down. dent suggested that managing a Mr. Romney returned to a world that at once craves and remain theme of his campaign: that sents American power requires a the mullahs had moved ahead lot more than martial-sounding with their program because declarations about calling in airthey saw weakness where they strikes or threatening to turn on had expected to find American and off American foreign aid. strength. One result, he said, is And he relentlessly cast Mr. that now there are some 10,000 Romney as a man unwilling to centrifuges spinning uranium. recognize how perceptions of It was an accurate statement, American strength have but it avoided any mention of the changed. When Mr. Romney fact that the construction procomplained that the Navy had gram was initially begun just beshrunk to its smallest size since fore the United States invaded World War I, Mr. Obama disIraq in 2003, in President Bushs missed the criticism. He noted first term. And Mr. Obama, in his that the capabilities of American response, was constrained by seships are far beyond what they crecy laws from talking about his once were and added, Governor, most aggressive action against we also have fewer horses and Iran: his decision to expand a bayonets. cyberwarfare campaign against For Mr. Romney, this final dethe country. bate before the election in two Inevitably, the two men deweeks was clearly his weakest. scended into an argument over While he seemed familiar with a whether Mr. Obama had conductrange of topics, speaking about ed an international apology rebellions in Mali and ticking off tour, leading Mr. Obama to dethe insurgent groups in Pakistan, clare that this has been probahe also took every opportunity he bly the biggest whopper thats could to turn back to economic is- been told during the course of sues at home, his campaign this campaign. Mr. Romney shot theme. Soon the two men were back that the president had said arguing about domestic job crein his speeches in the Middle ation and support for education East that in the past America and teachers, until the moderahad dictated to other nations. tor, Bob Schieffer of CBS News, Mr. President, America has said with some exasperation, not dictated to other nations, Mr. We all love teachers. Romney said. We have freed Even when the conversation other nations from dictators. turned to the intersection of inIn fact, America has done both, ternational affairs and economand the debate on Monday night ics, Mr. Obama attacked his chalunderscored that whether Mr. lenger, contending not only that Obama is re-elected or Mr. RomMr. Romneys prescription for ney moves into the Situation Americas automakers in 2009 Room, the United States will still would have put Americans out find itself making compromises work, but also that it would have between its values and its interests, because it usually has little strengthened the Chinese. Wed be buying cars from Chi- other choice.
By DAVID E. SANGER

Altered Race as Republicans Recast Romney Image

By JIM RUTENBERG and JEFF ZELENY

Mitt Romneys task in Monday nights foreign policy debate was to demonstrate that he could be a credible commander in chief, prepared to execute American power with more muscle and less compromise than President Obama, but without veering into what Mr. Obama called the wrong and reckless policies of the last Republican in the Oval Office, George W. Bush. But in a combative 90-minute debate that veered from whether the United States could control events in the fractious Middle East to which man has a better chance of forcing Irans mullahs to surrender their nuclear program without resorting to war, Mr. Romney avoided the more bellicose tone he often struck during the Republican primaries. While he sometimes pushed back at Mr. Obama, he explicitly said he would not intervene militarily in Syria, remain beyond 2014 in Afghanistan or rush into a confrontation with Iran. He ended up agreeing with the broad outlines of Mr. Obamas approach on the use of drones, and opposed a breach of relations with Pakistan, arguably Americas most frustrating ally. Mr. Romney had a narrower political task on Monday night: to show he was conversant in the subject matter and to reassure a war-weary public that he would not plunge the country into new conflicts. As he did in his previous two debates with Mr. Obama, he shifted to the middle, and at times he even sounded the nation-building theme the president talked about as a candidate in 2008 and abandoned after he was elected. Were going to have to do more than just going after leaders and

BOCA RATON, Fla. With a last aggressive debate performance behind him and 14 grueling days ahead, President Obama is now facing what he worked so hard to avoid: a neck-and-neck race with a challenger gaining ground when it matters most. Over the last month, through the debates and a gradual moderation of the conservative tone he struck during the Republican primaries, Mitt Romney undermined the Democrats expensive summertime work of casting him as the candidate of and for the rich, emerging as a far more formidable opponent than Mr. Obama had ever expected. He continued down the path of moderation here on Monday night, agreeing with Mr. Obama almost as often as he disagreed. For the first time in this race, Id rather be us than them, said Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, crediting Mr. Romneys strength in the first debate as a critical shift in the campaign. They spent months building him up as one thing and one night he disproved it. The president, aware of deepening worry among Democrats about the prospect of losing the White House, was aggressive at the debate, belittling his rivals foreign policy experience in a bid to keep voters from seeing him as a credible commander in chief. But Democrats could only hope the candidates final encounter here would level out a steady rise for Mr. Romney that has brought him to even with or leading the president in several national polls of likely voters. The race is suddenly so tight in the nine battleground states that each side is looking at a single Congressional district in Maine whose one electoral vote, in the event of an exceedingly tight outcome, could decide whether Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama is in the White House come Jan. 20. The growing sense of optimism inside the Romney campaign about his place in the race was visible in the newly relaxed faces of its senior advisers as they lounged poolside at their hotel in nearby Delray Beach before Mondays debate, ticking through states where they see new opportunities and rising poll numbers. Back in Boston, a senior aide marveled at how much the mood had changed from one month ago, gallows humor giving way to a realization that were in it. It remained a question whether Mr. Romney was gaining steam or riding a head of it from the strongest month of his campaign. Obama officials argued that the presidents showing at the debate on Monday would remind wavering voters of his leadership in foreign affairs, a strong suit. They emphatically pointed to advantages he still holds in enough important swing states as their life line. This race has automatically tightened as everybody in the Obama campaign predicted that it would, but hes ahead in the critical states, said Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, Mr. Obamas debate sparring partner. But it is now unmistakable that Mr. Obama, who leaned forward in his chair at several points during the debate and glared at his rival, is focused on protecting some of his safest turf and Mr. Romney is seeing new opportunities to take it. Though polls have shown a mix of results, it is more often than not Mr. Romney who is on the upward trajectory, if not always overtaking Mr. Obama, then, at least, cutting into his leads among important constituencies. For instance a CBS News poll released Monday showed his edge among women was down to 5 percentage points from 12 a month ago. Another, from CBS News and Quinnipiac University, showed Mr. Obamas lead in Ohio among likely voters narrowing to 5 percentage points from 10 points last month. Mr. Obama will spend the next two weeks pitting the campaign machinery he built to push his voters to the polls against Mr. Romneys sense of momentum and new signs of hope in states that were tilting away from him only a month ago. Yet Mr. Romney still faces more of a challenge in the Electoral College and must win more of the battleground states than does Mr. Obama, who won all of them four years ago. Though they had been basking in their new sense of momentum, Mr. Romneys aides acknowledged that their hardest work could still lie ahead. They were hoping to break through Mr. Obamas firewall of supportive states while seeking new opportunities in places previously believed to

MICHAEL F. M cELROY FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A supporter listened to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Monday at a rally in Canton, Ohio.
be slipping out of reach, like New Hampshire and Nevada. Underlying it all will be a defining fight, as Mr. Obama and his allies seek to recreate the image of Mr. Romney as a plutocrat whose policies will punish the middle class. Television ads from Democratic groups began appearing on Monday, reprising the accusations that Mr. Romney killed jobs to make a profit at Bain Capital. Mr. Romneys aides say voters now know him well enough to reject that image. They say they will continue to present Mr. Romney as a credible leader whose plans have a specific appeal to women, who have provided Mr. Obama much of his support in polls. Heading into the final phase of their advertising war, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama have contrasting imperatives. Mr. Romney is seeking to win over the last remaining undecided voters many of them 2008 Obama supporters by presenting himself as a credible president ready to work in the bipartisan manner swing voters crave. Mr. Obama has to keep that from happening. And that is making for a jarring contrast during the commercial breaks giving Mr. Romney the opening to show himself as the transcendent politician of a sort Mr. Obama has sought to be as Mr. Obama pounds away at him in his commercials. The question for Mr. Obama is whether attacks on Mr. Romneys business record can still work. Aides to Mr. Romney argue that Mr. Obama and his allies ran so many ads painting Mr. Romney as plutocrat whose policies would harm the middle class that they turned him into a caricature. It was shattered when he showed up as someone else himself, they say on the debate stage. He wiped out millions of dollars in attack ads portraying Mitt Romney as a rich guy from Bain Capital, Senator John McCain said. Democrats say they are confident about the continued power of their attacks against Mr. Romney based on his business practices at Bain Capital, as well as on his secretly taped remarks that 47 percent of Americans are so reliant on government they will not take responsibility for themselves. Its not that this line of questioning of his business record doesnt have salience, said Bill Burton, a senior strategist with Priorities USA Action, a super PAC supporting Mr. Obama. Its just that as we get to the end of the campaign folks need a reminder. And Obama campaign officials argue that the line of attack is precisely what is behind his continued edge in polls in the Midwest. The best path to victory for Mr. Romney is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and one more state, with campaign advisers putting Colorado at the top of the list. The narrowest path to victory for Mr. Obama is by winning Ohio, Wisconsin and at least one other state the presidents personal top favorite, aides say, is Iowa. Along with other safely Democratic states, that would be enough to block Mr. Romney from winning. As a sign of how tight the election could be, the president is heading to New Hampshire on Saturday to avoid what one aide described as the Al Gore problem. In 2000, Mr. Gore lost New Hampshire to George W. Bush, which made the entire presidential race hinge on Florida.

A12

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

EL ECTION 2012

RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES

President Obama and Mitt Romney met at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla., on Monday night for their final debate of the campaign. The moderator was Bob Schieffer of CBS News.

Obama and Romney Bristle From Start in Debate on Foreign Policy

From Page A1 policy rest more on tone, style and their sense of leadership than on particular policies. Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney seemed to align on matters like withdrawal from Afghanistan, the perils of intervening in Syria and the use of drones to battle terrorists. While they varied in degree, the heart of their clash rested on who would pursue the same national goals more effectively and ensure Americas enduring economic and security role overseas. Chopping the air with his hand, Mr. Obama came armed with a host of zingers. He accused his opponent, sitting at a table next to him, of trying to airbrush history and of seeking to do the same things we do but say them louder. At times, Mr. Obama lectured and even mocked Mr. Romney on the details of certain policies, hoping to expose him as an uninformed pretender at the risk of coming across as condescending. Mr. Romney at times sat stiffly, his hands before him, back ramrod straight. At one point, when Mr. Romney complained that the Navy is smaller now than any time since 1917, Mr. Obama pounced and noted that the comparison works only if aircraft carriers are equated with gunboats. We also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military has changed, the president said. Slowing his words, he added sarcastically: We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have these ships that go under water, nuclear submarines. And so the question is not a game of Battleship, where we are counting ships. The enmity between the men surfaced again and again, and the president seemed to have studied each attack line that Mr. Romney had used in the past, like his oftrepeated criticism of Mr. Obamas supposed apology tour of the world. You said that on occasion America had dictated to other nations, Mr. Romney said. Mr. President, America has not dictated to other nations. We have freed other nations from dictators. Mr. Obama hit back fast. If were going to talk about trips that weve taken, he said before pausing dramatically, in a reference to Mr. Romneys foreign trip this summer, when he was widely derided for insulting Britains ability to host the Olympic Games and for holding fund-raisers in London and in Israel. When I was a candidate for office, the first trip I took was to visit our troops, he continued. And when I went to Israel as a candidate, I didnt take donors. I didnt attend fund-raisers. Mr. Romney pinned the cascading crises around the world on Mr. Obamas shoulders, saying the president had failed to live up to his promises from his 2008 campaign and left the country in a weaker position. Look at the record, Mr. Romney said. You look at the record of the last four years and say: Is Iran closer to a bomb? Yes. Is the Middle East in tumult? Yes. Is Al Qaeda on the run, on its heels? No. Are Israel and the Palestinians closer to reaching a peace agreement? No. He sought to use the words of the Iranian leader, a hard-line Islamist who considers the United States the Great Satan, to bolster his argument that the United States has become weak. When the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, says our debt makes us not a strong country, thats a frightening thing, Mr. Romney said. The subject of Irans nuclear program came up repeatedly. Mr. Obama appeared to contradict himself at one point. He labeled not true a report in The New York Times that the United States and Iran have agreed in principle to direct nuclear talks after the elections. But he later suggested that Mr. Romney had agreed as well: Im pleased that you now are endorsing our policy of applying diplomatic pressure and potentially having bilateral discussions with the Iranians to end their nuclear program. But just a few years ago, you said thats something youd never do. Both men talked tough on Iran, at one point seeming to compete to show how much each is in the corner of Israel, which considers a nuclear Iran a threat to its existence. As long as Im president of the United States, Iran will not get a nuclear weapon, Mr. Obama said. He said international sanctions had brought the Iranian economy to its knees. Mr. Romney said Mr. Obama had allowed daylight to show between the United States and Israel and vowed to tighten sanctions and seek a war crimes indictment against Mr. Ahmadinejad for inciting genocide against Israel. But at the end of the night, for all the sound and fury on Iran, there was little substantive difference between the candidates. Both are in favor of strong international sanctions, and both said they would use military power if necessary to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. The candidates arrived here as foreign policy, which had been a political asset for Mr. Obama, has become more of a liability for him lately, particularly after the attack that killed the American ambassador to Libya last month. Mr. Obamas 10-point advantage in July on who would be a better commander in chief has shrunk to a 3-point edge in the latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll. For all the attention to Libya at the second debate, the two men seemed to have exhausted the topic this time. There was no chatter over whether Mr. Obama had called it an act of terror, and Mr. Romney made only a couple of perfunctory references. Instead, he tried to broaden his critique, praising the presidents counterterrorism efforts but quickly pivoting to call for a more comprehensive strategy to diminish radicalism in the Middle East. I congratulate him on taking out Osama bin Laden and going after the leadership in Al Qaeda, Mr. Romney said, but we cant kill our way out of this mess. Mr. Obama countered sharply. Facing Mr. Romney directly, he said, I have to tell you that your strategy previously has been one which has been all over the map, a phrase he would use three times during the debate. My strategy is pretty straightforward, which is to go after the bad guys, Mr. Romney replied. But my strategy is broader than that. It is important to get the Muslim world to reject extremism, he added. We dont want another Iraq. We dont want another Afghanistan. The two men also clashed over Syria, China and Russia. Mr. Obama ridiculed Mr. Romney for saying Russia was Americas No. 1 one geopolitical foe. The 1980s, theyre now calling to ask for their foreign policy back, the president said. Mr. Romney distinguished a geopolitical rival from a more pressing national security threat like Iran, but said he would not be nave about Moscow. Im not going to wear rose-colored glasses when it comes to Russia or Mr. Putin, he said. Mr. Romney said Mr. Putin would not see more "flexibility" after the election, as the president was overheard telling another Russian leader. After the election, hell get more backbone."

MAX BECHERER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

The debate was on TV in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, while rickshaw and minibus drivers took a break for breakfast and cigarettes.

A Bit of Role Reversal Gives the President a Harder Line, and Punch Lines
From Page A1 Poland to China to Latin America to Greece to balanced budgets. He delivered a long lecture on the strategic importance of Pakistan that was the same as Mr. Obamas position, then later complained, in detail, about spending cuts to the Navy. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, Mr. Obama said, eliciting a laugh from the audience that echoed on Twitter, because the nature of our militarys changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines. Mr. Romney tried a few jokes of his own, beginning the night with a crack that sounded more like a confession of jitters than good humor. Citing their recent exchange of jokes at the annual Al Smith dinner last week, Mr. Romney noted: We were together at a humorous event a little earlier, and its nice to maybe be funny this time not on purpose. Well see what happens. What happened wasnt particularly funny, but it was startling. Mr. Romney kept talking about American strength and the need to be tougher, but he seemed at times unnerved by the president, a man he accused of being too weak. When Mr. Romney complained about what he described as Mr. Obamas apology tour on his first overseas trip, he accused the president of snubbing Jerusalem. And by the way, they noticed that you skipped Israel, Mr. Romney said. Mr. Obama, finally comfortable with the fact that debates require confrontation, replied sharply: When I went to Israel as a candidate, I didnt take donors, I didnt attend fund-raisers, I went to Yad Vashem, the the Holocaust museum there, to remind myself the the nature of evil and why our bond with Israel will be unbreakable. Incumbency has its advantages in a foreign policy debate, but often inexperience can also be its own asset. Domestic policy focuses on what a candidate wants to do, be it raise taxes or cut them, reduce the deficit, invest in infrastructure, increase military spending, cut Medicare or save it. But foreign policy is often presented as what the candidate will not do: add troops in Afghanistan, abandon Israel, start another war in the Middle East, negotiate with terrorists, put nuclear missiles in Europe. Mr. Romney didnt really elaborate on Mr. Obamas mistakes and say what he would have done differently. Instead, he often highlighted where he agreed with the president. When asked by Mr. Schieffer if he regretted, in retrospect, calling for the fall of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Mr. Obama said no. So, too, did his opponent. No, I believe, as the president indicated and said at the time, that I supported his his action there. I felt that I wish wed have had a better vision of the future, Mr. Romney said. But once it exploded, I felt the same as the president did.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A13

EL ECTION 2012
CHECK POINT

Romneys Defense Proposal in Context

Mr. Obama said that Mr. Romney wants to increase military Mr. Obama said that Mr. Romney wants to increase military spending by $2 trillion. Mr. Romney has said that he wants to keep spending by $2 trillion. Mr. Romney has said that he wants to keep defense spending above 4 percent of G.D.P., which one analysis defense spending above 4 percent of G.D.P., which one analysis says would be $2 trillion more than the budget Mr. Obama has says would be $2 trillion more than the budget Mr. Obama has proposed over 10 years. proposed over 10 years.
Military spending, including operations in Iraq and Afghanistan 12% of G.D.P. 10

Looking Closely at Statements From Candidates on Foreign Policy

By SCOTT SHANE

The Arab Spring

Mr. Obama spoke of the role the United States has played during the Arab Spring uprisings, saying, We have stood on the side of democracy. But that is not true across the board. Consider Bahrain, where thousands of people rose up more than a year ago to demand political liberties, social equality and an end to corruption. Its Sunni monarchy, seen by the United States and Saudi Arabia as a strategic ally and a bulwark against Iran, was never left to face the rage on its own. More than a thousand Saudi troops helped put down the uprising, and the United States called for political changes but strengthened its support for the government. MICHAEL COOPER

Who knew that fact-checking the sole foreign policy debate of the presidential campaign would include the ranking of Massachusetts schools and how best to administer Medicaid? Repeatedly, the two candidates swerved to the economic issues that have dominated the campaign. Even the dispute over the attack on the American diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, which was expected to be a centerpiece, got less attention than the now-familiar dispute over what kind of bankruptcy Mitt Romney had proposed for the ailing auto industry. But when Bob Schieffer, the moderator, wrestled them back onto foreign policy, the two candidates offered starkly different views of the world. President Obama described a tough, realistic America engaged with allies in decimating Al Qaeda. Mr. Romney, even as he markedly moderated his tone and spoke repeatedly of peace as his goal, described a far scarier world in which Iran is four years closer to a nuclear weapon. In many cases, the contrasting claims were a matter of perspective, and on several occasions Mr. Romney said explicitly that he agreed with the president. But both men also made statements that were misleading or exaggerated or that contradicted previous statements. Here are some of the highlights:

8 Romneys proposed level

Obamas proposal 50 60 70 80 90 00 12 22 estimates

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Source: Department of Defense; White House; Travis Sharp, Center for a New American Security

Afghan Withdrawal
Has Mr. Romney changed his view on an Afghan withdrawal and timeline? About an hour into the debate, Mr. Romney seemed to adjust his long-held position. In the past, he has said that while he wanted to follow the same 2014 withdrawal timeline as the Obama administration and NATO allies, he would seek the advice of military commanders on the ground before making a decision. This prompted critics to suggest that Mr. Romney was giving himself wiggle room to keep regular combat brigades in Afghanistan past 2014. (Both the Obama administration and the Romney campaign have talked about keeping a small residual force, presumably of Special Operations forces and military trainers, after 2014 if the government of Afghanistan allows it.) But on Monday night, Mr. Romney seemed to draw a much clearer line that he would take all regular combat troops out of Afghanistan by 2014, without the caveat of first asking military commanders whether they believed that was a good idea. In response to a question about whether he would withdraw troops even if it were obvious that the Afghans were not able to handle their own security, Mr. Romney said, Were going to be finished by 2014, and when Im president, well make sure we bring our troops out by the end of 2014. He made no mention of first getting input from military commanders, as he has in the past. Were going to be able to make that transition by the end of 2014, so our troops will come home at that point, Mr. Romney said.
RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.

Foreigners Opinions of the U.S.

Both candidates spoke about Americas standing in the world and with Both candidates spoke about Americas standing in the world and with its allies. According to this Pew poll, attitudes toward the United States its allies. According to this Pew poll, attitudes toward the United States became more favorable after President Obamas election but have became more favorable after President Obamas election but have declined since. declined since.
Percentage saying they have a favorable view of the U.S. Japan: 72% France: 69 60% Britain: 60 Spain: 58 Mexico: 56 Germany: 52 Lebanon: 48 China: 43 40

Change in Tone on Iran

Mr. Romneys remark that he wants to use peaceful and diplomatic means to persuade Iran not to pursue its nuclear program was a striking departure from the more hawkish tone he has used throughout the campaign. He urged preparations for war against Iran last year in an opinion article in The Wall Street Journal. Si vis pacem, para bellum, he wrote. That is a Latin phrase, but the ayatollahs will have no trouble understanding its meaning from a Romney administration: If you want peace, prepare for war. Mr. Romney also called for more muscle-flexing aimed at Iran in a speech on Oct. 8 at the Virginia Military Institute. For the sake of peace, we must make clear to Iran through actions not just words that their nuclear pursuit will not be tolerated, he said. Mr. Romney has long been dismissive of Mr. Obamas attempts to use diplomacy to persuade Iran to abandon its weapons programs. In his first TV interview as president, he said we should talk to Iran, Mr. Romney said in his speech at the Republican National Convention in late August. Were still talking, and Irans centrifuges are still spinning. Last year, when asked in an interview what military action he would consider against Iran, Mr. Romney said, Theres a lot more information I need to have to know what type of military strike would be appropriate and effective. Would you be prepared to do it unilaterally if need be? Bret Baier of Fox News asked. Of course, Mr. Romney said.
MICHAEL COOPER

Mitt Romney and President Obama met in their third and final debate on Monday night at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla. The forum, which was dedicated to foreign policy, touched on Irans nuclear threat and the aftereffects of the Arab Spring.

20

Egypt: 19 Turkey: 15 Pakistan: 12

2008

2009

2012
THE NEW YORK TIMES

Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project

Credit for Less Dependence on Foreign Oil

Mr. Obama said that the United States has reduced its dependence Mr. Obama said that the United States has reduced its dependence on foreign oil. True, but the trend began before Mr. Obama took on foreign oil. True, but the trend began before Mr. Obama took office in 2009, and consumption continued to drop largely because office in 2009, and consumption continued to drop largely because of the recession. of the recession.
Foreign oil as a percentage of U.S. consumption 60% 50 Obama takes office

Apology Tour
Mr. Obama responded to Mr. Romneys claim that he had undertaken a foreign apology tour as probably the biggest whopper thats been told during the course of this campaign. Fact-checkers have repeatedly found the claim to be inaccurate. Mr. Obama has admitted American failings at times and like President George W. Bush has apologized for specific acts of American wrongdoing abroad but he has never explicitly apologized for American values or principles. Republicans often refer to Mr. Obamas 2009 speech in France in which he said that there have been times where America has shown arrogance and been dismissive, even derisive. But critics typically ignore what Mr. Obama said next: But in Europe, there is an anti-Americanism that is at once casual but can also be insidious. Instead of recognizing the good that America so often does in the world, there have been times where Europeans choose to blame America for much of whats bad. In other words, Mr. Obama was saying that the United States and

40 30 20 10

70

80

90

00

09 12
THE NEW YORK TIMES

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

PHOTOGRAPHS BY RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Troops in Iraq
Mr. Obama suggested that Mr. Romney was mistaken in seeking to keep 10,000 American troops in Iraq. But the Obama administration initially sought to do just that but never managed to negotiate an agreement allowing them to remain. Mr. Obama sought to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement that would have allowed United States troops to stay in Iraq after

2011. Initially, the Obama administration was prepared to keep up to 10,000 troops in Iraq. Later, the Obama administration lowered the number to about 5,000. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal alMaliki indicated that he might be willing. But the Iraqis did not agree to an American demand that such an agreement be submitted to their Parliament for approval, a step the Obama administration insisted on to ensure that any American troops that stayed would be immune from prosecution under Iraqi law. Mr. Obama relied on Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. as well as American officials in Iraq to negotiate the agreement. The

president spoke to Mr. Maliki only twice during the negotiations. Also, the administration did not begin formal talks with the Iraqis until June 2, 2011, leaving little time for negotiation. After the talks broke down, the Obama administration withdrew the remaining American troops in December 2011, the deadline set for withdrawing all American forces from Iraq under the Status of Forces Agreement. Iran has taken advantage of the absence of American forces to fly hundreds of tons of military equipment through Iraqi airspace to Syria.
MICHAEL R. GORDON

Europe had at times each dealt unfairly with each other; he never said he was sorry for American values or diplomacy.
RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.

China and Cheap Tires

President Obama said that China was flooding the United States with cheap tires and that he put a stop to it and saved jobs. In fact, many economists criticize the administrations action. In 2009, the Obama administration unilaterally imposed a duty on imports of Chinese tires, a move sought by the United Steelworkers union. It was one of nine trade enforcement actions taken

by the United States against China under Mr. Obama and, some economists argue, the most questionable. The tariff protected 1,200 American jobs at most, according to a study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. But the same study found that the tariff cost American consumers $1.1 billion last year alone in higher-priced tires, or about $900,000 per job. Moreover, China responded by slapping tariffs on imports of chicken parts that cost American poultry producers an estimated $1 billion in lost sales. Last month, the Obama administration let the tire tariff quietly SHARON LaFRANIERE expire.

Initial Reactions Suggest That Some Viewers Lost Interest The Third Time Around
By BRIAN STELTER

Half an hour into the presidential debate on Monday, the foreign policy analyst Anne-Marie Slaughter could not muster up any enthusiasm. I live and breathe this stuff, and Im bored, she wrote on Twitter. Her son evidently agreed; he was checking the baseball score a few minutes later, said Ms. Slaughter, who worked in the State Department for two years under the Obama administration. A baseball playoff game on Fox and a Monday Night Football game on ESPN appeared to siphon viewers from the debate, in

part because President Obama and Mitt Romney did not spar as often as they did during their town hall-style debate last Tuesday. The moderator, Bob Schieffer of CBS, mostly stayed out of the way after posing general questions, and the candidates did not trample over the agreed-upon time constraints or talk over each other to the degree they did in the previous two debates. Perhaps the relative civility left viewers restless and inclined to look elsewhere. In Facebook posts to friends and Twitter messages to strangers, some viewers lamented the fact that the two candidates frequently agreed on matters of foreign policy. Even

Syria is bored with this debate, the actor and filmmaker Albert Brooks wrote on Twitter. By 10 p.m., an hour after the debate started, some viewers seemed to take pride in changing the channel. I had enough debate last week, wrote an emblematic Facebook user from McDonough, Ga. Nielsen television ratings will not be released until Tuesday afternoon. But Twitter, the social network of choice for political operatives, recorded 6.5 million messages during the debate, down from 10 million for the first one on Oct. 3 and 7.2 million for the one last

Even Syria is bored with this debate, the actor and filmmaker Albert Brooks wrote.
Tuesday, suggesting a lower level of engagement this time around. At a viewing party in Manhattan sponsored by the social network Tumblr and the Web video company Livestream, attendees initially listened intently and laughed at Mr. Obamas jabs at Mr. Romney. But many turned

their backs after the first 10 minutes, and then paid attention again when Mr. Obama recalled his conversation with a child whose father died on Sept. 11, 2001. Mr. Obamas remark at 9:45 p.m. about reductions in military spending we also have fewer horses and bayonets did give online comedians at Tumblr and elsewhere some fodder. Otherwise the debate was largely void of sound bites, perhaps another reason it was not trending online the way the previous debates did. Supporters of Mr. Romney asserted, during and after the debate, that he had passed what a

CNN analyst called the commander in chief test. But most of the instant reaction to the matchup favored Mr. Obama. It was as clear a victory as Mitt Romneys in the first debate, wrote Joe Klein of Time magazine. The Obama campaign called it 15 minutes before the debate ended, posting a message on Facebook that Mr. Obama won because his leadership has made America stronger, safer and more secure than we were four years ago. And the Chicago Bears, from Mr. Obamas adopted hometown, beat the Detroit Lions, from Mr. Romneys birthplace, 13-7.

A14

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

ABOVE, BRIAN LEHMANN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES; BELOW, STEPHEN MALLY FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Above, Jason Smith, an auctioneer, on land he sold near Minburn, Iowa, for $10,500 an acre. Below, an auction attendee took a bidder number and a calculator in Eagle Grove.

Seems as if Sky Is the Limit On Land Prices Across Farm Belt

Boom Shows No Signs of Slowing Despite Drought
By RON NIXON and JOHN ELIGON

EAGLE GROVE, Iowa After initially trickling in slower than the auctioneers babble, the bids began picking up. Get your hands up, belted Marv Huntrods, the auctioneer, his baritone echoing from a raspy speaker in a plaidcarpeted Masonic lodge here last week. He chopped the air with one hand and drew out his vowels. Grains up overnight. Its only money. Just tell me, yes or yes. Last chance. After about 15 minutes and a starting bid of $6,000 per acre, Mr. Huntrods, an agent with Hertz Farm Management, ended up with more than he had expected. A former John Deere dealer bought the 80-acre farm plot at a stunning price of $10,600 per acre. Mr. Huntrods had thought it would fetch less than $9,500 per acre. Across the nations Corn Belt, even as the worst drought in more than 50 years has destroyed what was expected to be a record corn crop and reduced yields to their lowest level in 17 years, farmland prices have continued to rise. From Nebraska to Illinois, farmers seeking more land to plant and outside investors look-

ing for a better long-term investment than stocks and bonds continue to buy farmland, taking advantage of low interest rates. And despite a few warnings from bankers, the farmland boom shows no signs of slowing. Almost every year since 2005, except during the start of the recession in 2008, agriculture land prices have posted double-digit gains. In the same period, the Standard & Poors 500-stock index has had doubledigit gains in only three of those years. An August survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed a 15 percent increase in farmland prices since last year across a region that covers Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan. Another survey released at the same time from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City showed even higher growth in the Great Plains states, where farmland prices have increased 26 percent since last year. The two Fed surveys and sales data have raised concerns from bank regulators about a potential farmland bubble, similar to the housing frenzy that helped set off the financial crisis. A year ago, rising farmland prices prompted regulators to warn banks not to relax

lending standards. In July, the Kansas City Fed held a symposium to discuss concerns about a bubble. Any time you have an asset that doubles in value over a decade, there is cause for concern about how sustainable that growth is, said Richard A. Brown, chief economist at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. For farmers in the land hunt, a potential bubble was barely a concern. Many said they needed to buy more land to expand their businesses so they can generate more income. And in this wobbly economy, they found safety in stashing their money in farmland. Whats a C.D. at the bank? Half a percent, said Clark Wadle, who attended the auction. Whats the stock market? Unstable. Whether land prices go up or they go down again, you still have the property. The winning bidder, Gaylord Jones of Eagle Grove, said that buying farmland was a way to invest on his own terms. I dont buy stocks, he said. This way, I make my own damn mistakes. The worst drought in decades this summer seemed a distant memory here as about two dozen farmers escaped the cold and rain for the coffee-and-cookie-

infused air inside the lodge where the auction was held. In some cases, the drought has benefited farmers seeking land. Brent Kuehnast, who bought 190 acres this summer to add to the roughly 1,200 his family owns, said the drought helped him negotiate a below-market price on the property near his home in Humboldt, Iowa. But the drought also caused some anxiety over his purchase. On a recent afternoon, as his pickup truck bobbed like a vessel in choppy water over the dirt of his new plot, Mr. Kuehnast, 44, smiled when asked how often he inspected his new land, which he will start farming next year. All the time, he said. I like to find out where it needs to be improved. No state has benefited more from the farmland boom than Iowa. According to an agriculture land survey by Iowa State University, prices have risen 32 percent since 2010. Statewide, farmland prices averaged $6,700 an acre, the highest ever, even after adjusting for inflation. Four years ago, prices averaged $3,900 an acre. Because of the strong demand for farmland, banking regulators fear that

farmers could take on more debt to make purchases, a repeat of the 1970s and early 1980s, when overleveraged farmers used their farms as collateral to buy up more land. The resulting debt led to a slew of bankruptcies and plummeting land values. Those days are fresh in the mind of John Kintzle, 68, who lives near Cedar Rapids and attended the auction here in north-central Iowa just to observe. Back then, he said, prices dropped from $3,000 an acre to $1,000 an acre in three years. Im a little gun-shy, he said, though he added that he was open to purchasing. My wife thinks Im nuts. Economists say that so far there are few signs of a repeat of those days. Agriculture Department data show that net farm income is expected to increase to $122 billion this year from $117 billion in 2011, a 4 percent increase even with the effects of the drought. Thats the highest income level since 1973 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Economists say farmland values are getting a boost from corn and soybean prices, which had reached records highs because of Continued on Page A15

Iowa Justice Who Ruled for Gay Marriage Faces Test That Three Peers Failed
By JOHN ELIGON

COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa On a nippy morning in a grassy square park here, a pointed cry punctured the peaceful air. No more Wiggins! a man shouted into a microphone, urging on a group of about 30. They were calling on voters to oust Justice David S. Wiggins, who was a part of the unanimous Iowa Supreme Court that ruled same-sex marriage legal in 2009. It has changed our culture, roared Bob Vander Plaats, a conservative activist and leading force behind the campaign, heaping criticism on the courts decision. It has changed our foundation. It has changed the structure of the family to make marriage mean absolutely nothing and to mean anything you want it to be. Two years ago, Mr. Vander Plaatss points met scant resistance. As a result, three of the justices in the 7-to-0 ruling did not receive enough votes to be retained and were booted from the court. It was the first time voters had ousted justices since Iowa instituted a merit-selection process half a century ago. This year looks different. Justice Wiggins is the only justice up for retention who took part in the marriage ruling, and a robust coalition has formed around him, urging Iowans to vote to keep him on the court.

PHOTOGRAPHS BY CHARLIE NEIBERGALL/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Frank Ingersoll of Des Moines, left, preparing for a bus tour that urged Iowans to vote Justice David S. Wiggins off the Supreme Court because of a 2009 decision allowing same-sex marriage. Eric Stimson of Des Moines, right, showed support for the justice.
A pro-Wiggins bus tour, organized by the state bar association, trailed the anti-Wiggins bus tour across the state and is spending tens of thousands of dollars to get its message out. Justice Not Politics, a coalition favoring retention, is reaching out to individual voters. One Iowa, the states leading gay rights organization, has been promoting its belief that same-sex marriage has benefited families and the economy. The group has been mailing literature and calling voters. In the 2010 election, folks danced around the central issue, which was marriage equality, said Donna Red Wing, the executive director of One Iowa. Its very different now. Ms. Red Wing said her group was asking our supporters and friends to talk about their lives and talk about their families, so that this is not just a political conversation, so that the narrative really becomes about real families, Iowans who wake up every day and live their lives here. The bigger threat to same-sex marriage in Iowa next month may be the battle for control of the State Senate, where Democrats hold a one-seat advantage. Republicans have suggested that they would try to get a state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the ballot if they seized the majority. Supporters of same-sex marriage argue that the matter is one of equality and best decided by the courts; schools may have remained segregated and interracial marriages illegal if those issues had been left to popular votes, they say. Iowa justices generally face retention every eight years and need a simple majority of votes to keep their seats. All three justices were ousted in 2010 with nearly 55 percent against them. The reality is that it was a wake-up call for all of us, said Cynthia C. Moser, the president of the Iowa State Bar Association. Justice Wiggins has declined to campaign for his seat, other than writing in The Des Moines Register that he hoped Iowans would vote to keep him but that he would not politicize the courts.

David Baker, one of the justices ousted in 2010, said they might not have made it clear enough that their ruling dealt with the civil marriage contract and did not prevent churches from choosing how to define marriage. Advocates on both sides of the debate are looking toward this vote as a measure of Iowans attitudes toward same-sex marriage. Some polls suggest there has been a marked shift. Fifty-six percent of Iowans said they would oppose a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, while 38 percent said they would favor it, according to a Des Moines Register poll in February. The number who would oppose an amendment was a considerable increase from 40 percent in 2009, when 41 percent said they would favor it. In a Register poll of likely voters last month, 49 percent said they would vote to retain Justice Wiggins, 41 percent to remove, and 9 percent were unsure. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus four percentage points. But Brian Brown, the president of the National Organization for Marriage, one of the loudest opponents of same-sex marriage, said: The furor hasnt died down. People are still very upset.

THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A15

In Settlement, Medicare to Ease Rules for Some Patients

From Page A1 ally by the need to provide care. As the population ages and people live longer with chronic and long-term conditions, Ms. Stein said, the governments insistence on evidence of medical improvement threatened an ever-increasing number of older and disabled people. In many cases, she said, the denial of coverage led to a denial of care because most people cannot afford to pay for these services on their own. Neither she nor Medicare officials could say how much the settlement might cost the government, but the price of expanding such coverage could be substantial. Dr. Lynn Gerber, director of the Center for Study of Chronic Illness and Disability at George Mason University in Virginia, called the settlement a landmark decision for Medicare recipients with chronic illness and especially those with disability. Disability frequently accompanies many chronic conditions, Dr. Gerber said, and we often have no cures, so people are likely to experience progressive disability. Rehabilitation, physical and occupational therapy and skilled care are incredibly important in maintaining a persons functional ability, performance and quality of life. The lead plaintiff, Glenda R. Jimmo, 76, of Bristol, Vt., has been blind since childhood. Her right leg was amputated below the knee because of blood circulation problems related to diabetes, and she is in a wheelchair. She received visits from nurses and home health aides who provided wound care and other treatment, but Medicare denied coverage for those services, saying her condition was unlikely to improve. Another plaintiff, Rosalie J. Berkowitz, 81, of Stamford, Conn., has multiple sclerosis, but Medicare denied coverage for home health visits and physical therapy, on the ground that her condition was not improving. Her family said she would have to go into a nursing home if Medicare did not cover the services. The proposed settlement, ne-

JOSHUA BRIGHT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Rosalie J. Berkowitz, 81, who was denied home-health coverage by Medicare because her condition caused by multiple sclerosis was not improving, was a plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit.
gotiated with lawyers from the Justice Department and the Department of Health and Human Services, was submitted last week to Christina C. Reiss, the chief judge of the Federal District Court in Vermont. If she approves it, as expected, she would have authority to enforce it for up to four years. Asked about the proposed settlement, Robert D. Reischauer, a public trustee of the Medicare program, said: Unquestionably that would increase costs. How much, I cant say. Other independent experts expressed similar views. While the settlement is likely to generate additional costs for the government, it might save some money too. For example, physical therapy and home health care might allow some people to avoid more expensive care in hospitals and nursing homes. Charles S. Miller, a Justice Department spokesman, and Erin Shields Britt, a spokeswoman for the Health and Human Services Department, said government lawyers had no comment. The changes will apply to the traditional Medicare program and to private Medicare Advantage plans. They apply to people 65 and older, as well as to people under 65 who qualify for Medicare because of disabilities. The Obama administration initially urged the judge to dismiss the lawsuit. Medicare officials denied that they had a formal policy requiring beneficiaries to show their conditions would improve. However, in a separate lawsuit in Pennsylvania, Medicare officials argued the reverse. In order for Medicare to cover skilled nursing care, they said in a legal brief, there must be an expectation that the beneficiarys condition will improve materially in a reasonable and generally predictable period of time. The same standard, in nearly identical language, is found in guidelines used by some Medicare contractors, which review and pay claims on behalf of the government. In a typical case, Medicare terminated coverage of skilled nursing care and physical therapy for an 81-year-old woman because she had exhibited a decline in functional status. Under the settlement, the federal court in Vermont will certify a nationwide class of more than 10,000 Medicare beneficiaries whose claims for skilled nursing and therapy services were denied before Jan. 18, 2011, when the lawsuit was filed. Many of them will have an opportunity to have their claims re-examined under the revised standards. Plaintiffs in the case include the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, the Parkinsons Action Network, Paralyzed Veterans of America and the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, an advocacy group. Neither the Medicare law nor regulations require beneficiaries to show a likelihood of improvement. But some provisions of the Medicare manual and guidelines used by Medicare contractors establish more restrictive standards, which suggest coverage should be denied or terminated if a patient reaches a plateau or is not improving or is stable. In most cases, the contractors decisions denying coverage become the final decisions of the federal government.

Documents in Meningitis Case Show Complaints in 1999

By SABRINA TAVERNISE and ANDREW POLLACK

The Massachusetts Department of Health released hundreds of pages of documents on Monday detailing a history of violations at the New England Compounding Center, whose tainted medicine has caused a nationwide meningitis outbreak. The documents include dozens of complaints from as early as April 1999, less than a year after the company began as a compounding pharmacy in Framingham, Mass. Among the most frequently cited problems was the companys habit of allowing doctors offices to fax orders for medicine without names of specific patients, a practice that is prohibDenise Grady and Abby Goodnough contributed reporting.

ited under state law. The company was also repeatedly cited for not providing the appropriate data to support its medicines expiration dates. All violations were eventually corrected. The documents, released in response to requests from journalists, provide a window into regulators attempts to crack down on problems at the company, and the companys efforts to correct them. New England Compounding Center worked cooperatively with the Massachusetts Board of Registration in Pharmacy to resolve to the boards satisfaction any issues brought to the companys attention, the company said in a statement. The reports were released as the number of meningitis cases related to the spinal injection of a steroid drug from the pharmacy

that was contaminated with mold rose to 294. Three joint infections have also been linked to the shots, and 23 people have died. State officials inspected the company at least three times in 2004, finding a variety of violations. The records show that a lawyer for the company pleaded with officials, saying that if they brought disciplinary action, the consequences would be fatal to the business and trigger a catastrophe. An outside auditor was assigned to see that the company corrected its procedures. In January 2006, the company and the Massachusetts Board of Registration in Pharmacy signed a consent agreement in which the company and its chief pharmacist and co-owner, Barry J. Cadden, were to be placed on one years probation. The board

agreed to delay the start of the probation for one year to give the company a chance to undergo two inspections and make improvements. A few months later the stateappointed inspector said the center had made significant progress. It does not appear that it was placed on probation. Also on Monday, the Food and Drug Administration posted on its Web site lists of the customers of the New England Compounding Center and the products they bought. The customer list is 28 pages long and shows hospitals and clinics in every state except Missouri, and in the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The facilities include an array of small clinics and surgery centers, but also some major hospitals.

National Briefing
SOUTH

Florida: Hazing Defendant Avoids Jail Time

The first defendant to be sentenced in the hazing death of a Florida A&M drum major avoided jail time at his sentencing on Monday, but he will spend more than two years under close supervision. The defendant, Brian Jones, 23, of Parrish, was given six months of community control, which strictly limits freedom with measures including an ankle monitor. He will serve an additional two years of probation and must perform 200 hours of community service. Mr. Jones had entered a no-contest plea to third-degree felony hazing. Judge Marc Lubet said Mr. Joness role in the hazing death of the drum major, Robert Champion, was rela(AP) tively minimal. Eleven other band members are awaiting trial.
STEPHEN MALLY FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Marv Huntrods, left, an auctioneer, with Gaylord Jones, who was a winning bidder at the Eagle Grove auction last week.

SOUTHWEST

Texas: Case on School Financing Begins

Lawyers for about 600 school districts argued Monday that the school financing system is so hopelessly broken that it violates the State Constitution. The state countered that the system was nowhere near a crisis. A single case consolidating six suits filed by about two-thirds of the districts opened before Judge John Dietz of State District Court in Austin. The suits were filed after the Legislature cut $4 billion for schools and $1.4 billion for grant programs last year. The state attorney generals office says that because Texas places great emphasis on local (AP) control, shortcomings are the fault of individual districts.

Across Corn Belt, Sky Appears To Be Limit on Farmland Prices

From Page A14 the drought. Farmers are carrying less debt than they were 30 years ago, and low interest rates are also a factor because they make it less costly for farmers to borrow. The federal crop insurance program also plays a role in keeping farmland prices high, by covering a majority of losses in revenue or crop yields. Regulators, however, say that despite the continued growth in farmland prices there are reasons to be cautious. Some lenders have reported that a number of farmers are taking out loans based on the current value of their land to take advantage of the farmland boom. Fed officials and some real estate brokers said these buyers could be in trouble if interest rates rose and crop prices fell. This could cause farmland values to drop by a third to a half, putting farmers at risk of default. Another risk is that if the drought stretches into multiple years, it could interrupt the boom in farmland prices, officials said. But that was not something to worry about, said Brian Wagner, who stopped his bidding at the auction because he thought values would eventually drop, allowing him to buy a better piece of land at a lower price. That would be like me asking you, When you get in your car or on the bus, do you think about getting into an accident? he said. Accidents happen randomly. Droughts come and droughts go. They dont come very often.

HEALTH

Flu Vaccine Effective Against 4 Strains, Study Finds

Vaccines that protect against four strains of flu proved just as effective in clinical trials as traditional ones that protect against three, two vaccine companies announced Monday. The new mixtures protect against two different B strains, scientists from Sanofi Pasteur and GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals said at a medical meeting in San Diego. The B strains are rarer and usually arrive later in the season than the A strains, like A(H1N1), but they cause more hospitalizations and deaths. Until 1978, flu vaccines contained only one A and one B strain; a second A was added to fight A(H3N2), which had first emerged as the 1968 Hong Kong Flu. Two distinct B strains, known as Victoria and Yamagata, have existed since 2002, but it has been hard to predict a dominant one each year. The new quadrivalent vaccines, which are being evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration and are not approved for the public, are meant to lower that uncertainty. DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

A16

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

$2.50 Base Fare for Subways and Buses Is Likely, Transit Chairman Suggests
By MATT FLEGENHEIMER

The base fare for subways and buses probably will go up, the chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority said on Monday, supplying the most telling signal yet about how next years planned fare increase is likely to be carried out. In an interview on radio station WOR, the chairman, Joseph J. Lhota, said the $2.25 base fare was likely to increase because if it did not, the authority would have to raise the cost of 30-day unlimited passes substantially. I think we should focus on the middle class, Mr. Lhota said, noting that a significant majority of riders do not pay $2.25, opting instead for a 30- or 7-day unlimited card, or a pay-per-ride Metro-

Public hearings are to begin next month, with higher prices in March.
Card of at least $10, which includes a 7 percent bonus. We need to focus on how to keep the cost as low as possible for them. But a change to the base fare could introduce a particular strain on the transit systems poorest riders. According to survey data from the authority, nearly 40 percent of riders earning less than $25,000 annually use the non-discounted fare. For riders earning more than $50,000, the figure is a little more than

20 percent. This month, the authority unveiled four proposals for the fare increase that is scheduled to take effect in March. Two of the proposals called for the base fare to remain $2.25. In one of those proposals, the cost of a 30-day card would rise to $125, from the current $104, and the bonus on pay-per-ride MetroCards would fall to 5 percent from 7 percent. In the other, the cost of a 30day card would rise to $119 and the bonus would be eliminated entirely. Last week, after previously suggesting that the bonus could be eliminated, Mr. Lhota said he would recommend keeping it at least partially, citing public support for the bonus. Of the four options given by the authority, only one raises the base fare

while retaining any part of the bonus. In that proposal, the fare would rise to $2.50, a 30-day card would cost $112 and the bonus would remain intact. Mr. Lhota has emphasized that the proposals could be adjusted slightly. He said Monday that the final decision, to be voted on by the authoritys board in December, would probably be somewhere in the middle. On the base fare, though, there may be no middle ground. Adam Lisberg, the authoritys chief spokesman, said Monday that the fare could increase only in 25-cent intervals, signaling that for accounting purposes the options are a 25cent increase or none at all. Later in the day, after an event commemorating the renaming of the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel in honor of the for-

mer governor Hugh L. Carey, Mr. Lhota was less explicit in discussing the fares. He said no decisions had been made, with the public hearings set to begin next month, and he stressed, I really need to talk to my board about this. But when asked if his stance on 30day and 7-day cards suggested that the base fare would have to rise, Mr. Lhota acknowledged, Thats what the numbers bear out. Gene Russianoff, the staff lawyer for the Straphangers Campaign, a rider advocacy group, said it was premature for Mr. Lhota to be tipping his hand before next months public hearings. At this point, its time to listen to the public, Mr. Russianoff said. He stresses that hes one board member, but hes a pretty big honcho.

At a Bodega In Brooklyn, Contraband And Candy

By J. DAVID GOODMAN

In a certain small section of Brooklyn, Ralph Jawads presence was a reassuring constant. His bodega, a frills-free corner bastion of old New York grit, chugged along for decades even as the surrounding neighborhood in Fort Greene, near the new Barclays Center, has changed almost beyond recognition. Even the storefront sign, displaying a long-discarded name, has not been displaced. The bodega, known to all as Ralphs, was the kind of place where local residents left an extra set of apartment keys, or could count on running a bit of credit. It was the sort of New York standby that stayed open, always ready for one of lifes impulsive purchases: chips, candy, cigarettes, beer. And, the police said, drugs. The police arrested Mr. Jawad, 48, on Thursday evening after they said an undercover officer bought marijuana from him. It was not the first time an undercover officer had done so, the police said. In addition, Mr. Jawad had been arrested once before, they added, in 2003, on weapons charges. Brooklyn prosecutors declined to prosecute in that case. Inside the store, along with the deli meat and bags of Domino sugar, the Brooklyn narcotics squad said it found roughly 460 assorted pills that appeared to include oxycodone, Valium and morphine; more than a pound of marijuana; over $21,000 in cash; and two loaded handguns. Two employees were arrested with Mr. Jawad on drug and gun charges. All three are facing up to 25 years in prison. In the manner of a small-town scandal, Mr. Jawads arrest rattled the surrounding community, many of whom knew him as the mayor of the block. He was a real long-standing anchor in the community, said Robert Perris, the district manager of Community

ROBERT STOLARIK FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Abdel Jawad on Sunday standing outside the grocery store owned by his son Ralph Jawad, who the police said sold drugs to an undercover agent.
Board 2. Selling drugs is clearly against the law, he said, but added, I never once heard an allegation that drugs were being sold there. The shop, opened by Mr. Jawads father on the corner of Lafayette and South Portland Avenues in the late 1970s, was for many years among the few businesses around, said James Daniels, a nearby resident since 1986. He pretty much was the only store that had lights in the window, he said. A manager at Mos Bar across the street from Ralphs, Mr. Daniels said he started each day with a coffee and a word from Mr. Jawad, and did not know anything about drugs. Nor do I believe it, he said. Closed on Friday, the shop was back open on Sunday, though Mr. Jawad was missing; he remained in jail on Monday, held in $25,000 bail. His arrest cast a dark cloud over the stores sun-splashed facade, the painted green sign above still displaying the words 89 Lafayette Avenue Meat Corp. The city has begun a process that could close the store permanently, the police said, though that still has to be decided by a court. Im here until things get settled, one of Mr. Jawads brothers, known as Bambi, said from behind the register. Their father, Abdel, was also in the shop but emphasized that he was retired. He said there were a couple of holdups that were never reported to the police, explaining the guns, which he said had been in a safe in the back of the shop along with the money. We never hurt anyone. According to the criminal complaint, the police found one gun in a safe; the other was behind the counter, in a box of sugar packets. On the green-and-white picnic tables and benches outside, where local residents often come to trade gossip, those who gathered on Sunday greeted one another with smiles and spoke of the Jawad familys generosity. Keisha Brown, 35, remembered getting free candy when she was a child growing up around the block, when the shop was called Meat Corp. Mark McNeil, a maintenance worker, Continued on Following Page

2 Women in Queens and Many Others Find a Sick Day Could Mean Theyre Fired
There is a brutal constancy to the workweeks of these two women: 72hour weeks piled one atop another. In Corona, Queens, Celina Alvarez chops chayote and avocados and chickens in a dank restaurant basement. And a few blocks away, Rocio Loyola makes juice drinks. Now and then Ms. Loyola, GOTHAM 35, wears down and the chill of flu runs through her body, and she vomits in the employees bathroom. And, she says, her boss shakes his head and warns: You go home, youre fired. As for Ms. Alvarez, 48, some months ago her heart throbbed, her arms and chest heavy with ache. On her single day off she walked into a clinic, and a doctor listened through his stethoscope and told her: Your heart is in bad shape. He checked her into the hospital. A few days later, she was discharged and walked 15 blocks to beg her employer for her job back. She said he was disgusted: Youre old and youre sick. With that, she said, he sent her back to chop in a basement filled with two inches of gray water. She is a proud woman with dark, piercing eyes set in a full face framed by high cheekbones. She said nothing to her boss. I couldnt stop thinking: How will I find money for food? For rent? she says. So I went to that basement. There is now a Dickensian feel to New York City. You walk below the El on Roosevelt Avenue in Corona and find so many hard-fought-for laws against overcrowded tenements, and wage violations and sanitary conditions winked at. In this Upstairs, Downstairs city, those at the bottom of the pile learn the virtues of silence. Of late, however, a coalition of com-

MICHAEL POWELL

PHOTOGRAPHS BY KIRSTEN LUCE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Celina Alvarez, left, and Rocio Loyola work 72-hour weeks a few blocks apart in Corona, Queens. They say their bosses have no sympathy for their illnesses.
munity groups has taken up the cudgel in support of paid sick days. This is a luxury denied to 700,000 to 1.2 million New Yorkers. The City Council has talked of mandating that all employers with more than five employees provide five paid sick or flexible vacation days. Paid sick days should be on par with the minimum wage, the eight-hour day, says Bill Lipton, deputy director of the Working Families Party. Perhaps, although in truth New Yorks reform pulse flutters weakly. Last year the City Council spent months debating a so-called living wage that in the end, sanded down by compromise, seemed to apply to approximately 14 workers. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg worries a lot about our health; hes banned smoking in bars and vat-size cups of soda. But suggest that a couple of women should be allowed to take off a day rather than cough bacteria into the chicken quesadillas, and his free-market spine stiffens. Compromise is no option. When the leaders of Chambers of Commerce in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn sounded dangerously amenable to a deal, the mayors top aides set straight these weak-kneed sorts. When more than 100 owners of small businesses signed a petition urging the City Council to pass sick-days legislation, some sharp-eyed fellow working against the bill happened to notice that a few of these owners had city tax liens. Voil! The New York Post published an article proclaiming: They want more government mandates but cant even pay their taxes. In theory, a sizable majority of the City Council supports sick days. In reality, few of this often emasculated body will buck the Council speaker, Christine C. Quinn, particularly as she has a case of the mayoral fevers and much desires the endorsement of Mr. Bloomberg. Could it pass despite her opposition, I ask a councilman who favors the legislation. Totally free to vote their conscience, the vast majority would vote for sick days, he notes brightly. Then he acknowledges that conscience does not rate so high on the scale of useful City Council attributes. Ms. Quinn, unlike the mayor, takes pain to express her sympathy with those who say theyd like a day or two off if they or their children fall ill. A former tenant organizer, she recognizes that this city is defined as much by the crowded shift-bedrooms of Elmhurst as by the resale value of luxurious Chelsea co-ops. I really dont think this is a good idea for small businesses at this time, she says. But the economy has not yet turned the corner and well put them in harms way. So someday, maybe. Opponents have placed the cost of the sick-days bill as high as $800 million. But those mathematics are more than a bit dubious, relying on assumptions that every single employee would take the maximum number of sick days, and then some. More to the point, you wonder if perhaps there are a few jobs that a 21stcentury global capital perhaps should consider passing on. Ms. Alvarez recently found a new job. Her pay is a touch better. Does she, I ask, have sick days? She shrugs. They havent said anything, she says. I just pray to God each night I have good health.

E-mail: powellm@nytimes.com Twitter: @powellnyt

THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A17

PHOTOGRAPHS BY KIRSTEN LUCE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Representative Tim Bishop, left, a five-term Democratic incumbent, and Randy Altschuler, center at right, a Republican, spoke at the same event in Westhampton Beach, N.Y., on Wednesday.

As a Long Island Congressional Race Tightens, Its Pace Becomes More Harried
By MICHAEL SCHWIRTZ

NESCONSET, N.Y. Randy Altschuler already had his Congressional ID in hand two years ago when he learned that a count of absentee ballots had erased his victory, sending his opponent to Congress with a mere 593-vote edge. And so it is with added vim that Mr. Altschuler, a Republican businessman, has crisscrossed eastern Long Island in recent weeks, as he faces Representative Tim Bishop, the five-term Democrat, for a second time. I learned a lot of tactical things, Mr. Altschuler said, recalling his 2010 defeat in an interview here. Things like the absentee ballots he schooled us on it last time. There are a lot of things I didnt know that people do or can do, and weve just been much smarter about it. Analysts and pollsters suggest that the race is a tossup, and the two men are practically tripping over each other in a harried effort to visit diners, firehouses, nursing homes and other clusters of voters between Smithtown and Montauk. There are days when their paths cross twice or even three times at meet the candidates events across the district. And a flood of negative ads has fueled rancor on both sides.

The race is also one of several contentious Congressional contests in New York that could help decide control of the House next year. Republicans and sympathetic super PACs, including Crossroads GPS, of which Karl Rove was a founder, have showered Mr. Altschuler with attention and cash, so much so that Mr. Bishop has begun to describe himself as an underdog. We knew that we werent going to win this race by outspending him, Mr. Bishop said in an interview. The way were going to win this race is by outworking him and by having a greater, if you will, army of field volunteers and field staff. Of the pace of the campaign, he said: Its draining. While the First Congressional District may be known for the Hamptons, a playground for the well-to-do, it also has workingclass areas and a significant population of Hispanic and other immigrants, some of them in the country illegally. Manufacturing in Suffolk County has declined, leaving the area more dependent on public entities like Stony Brook University and the Brookhaven National Laboratory for jobs. In August, according to most recent figures available, unemployment in Suffolk County was 8.2 percent, up from 7.3 percent a year ago, ac-

cording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both candidates are considered relatively moderate, and they have largely sparred over economic issues. Mr. Bishop has sought to link Mr. Altschuler to the fiscal policies of Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the Republican vice-presidential

A close, rancorous rematch could help decide which party controls the House.
candidate. Mr. Altschuler has in turn accused Mr. Bishop and his Democratic allies of failing to come up with solutions to mend the hobbled economy. The district does not have a strong bent toward either party, and Mr. Altschuler has tried to wield anger over gridlock in Washington as a weapon against Mr. Bishop, whom he often criticizes for voting almost exclusively with Democrats. There are no good guys right now in Washington, Mr. Altschuler said at a debate this month. Youve got a problem with both parties. Theyve creat-

ed the mess weve got right now. And thats why, frankly, I want to replace one of the people whos helped create that mess. Mr. Altschuler, 41, has also cast himself as a Washington outsider. He has spent most of his adult life in business, and he currently runs a company, CloudBlue, that recycles electronic equipment like computers and printers. But Mr. Bishop has tried to make Mr. Altschulers business background a liability. Mr. Altschuler once was an owner of OfficeTiger, a company that outsourced support service jobs for American corporations. Some of the jobs were moved to sites in the United States, though many moved abroad, mostly to India. The company was acquired by the printing company R. R. Donnelly in 2006. Mr. Bishops campaign, echoing one of the Obama campaigns attacks on Mitt Romney, has run advertisements accusing Mr. Altschuler of being an outsourcing pioneer. Interviews indicated that such criticism had a chance of resonating in Suffolk County. Charles Giles, 26, who has been looking for work since graduating from college with a history degree last year, said Mr. Altschulers outsourcing was the main reason he would be voting for Mr. Bishop, though he said he

was not enthusiastic about either candidate. I feel like theres a difference between actively hurting the job market and just not helping, he said in an interview at a Starbucks in Nesconset. Mr. Bishop, 62, a former provost at Southampton College, has tried to distance himself from Washington. He rarely invokes President Obama and has repeatedly criticized the House leadership, Republicans in particular, often noting that Congress has been in session for only eight days since August. We ought to be in Washington, he said in a recent debate. The fact that the leadership of the House of Representatives took us out of session when we could be there trying to help resolve these problems I think is deeply unfortunate. A poll published in mid-September by Siena College gave Mr. Bishop a 13-point lead over Mr. Altschuler, but most experts now say the race has narrowed significantly. Two Republican-leaning organizations released polls this month showing Mr. Altschuler ahead. This is likely to be a close election and a chance to pick up a seat, said Lawrence Levy, a political analyst at Hofstra University. Mr. Bishop won more than

7,000 votes on the Independence Party line in 2010, but this year, the party has endorsed Mr. Altschuler. The National Republican Congressional Committee and two super PACs affiliated with Republicans Prosperity First Inc. and Crossroads GPS have spent more than a million dollars in support of Mr. Altschuler. One Crossroads GPS advertisement highlights Mr. Bishops role in helping a local businessman, Eric Semler, obtain a fireworks permit for his sons bar mitzvah. Mr. Semler later gave the Bishop campaign a $5,000 donation; both he and Mr. Bishop have denied that a quid pro quo was involved. Don Allen, 67, who has run an open-air produce market in the town of Yaphank for 32 years, said he was disturbed by the fireworks affair but was not too happy about Mr. Altschulers connection with outsourcing, either. We need jobs we dont need them outsourced to India, he said. But he said, Youve got a Congress that doesnt do a damn thing except fight. Standing amid pumpkins and gourds of myriad shapes and sizes, Mr. Allen proclaimed himself undecided and frustrated. Im so fed up with politics, he said. I think a lot of people are just turned off.

A18

THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012 THE APPRAISAL
E L I ZA BE T H A . HA R R I S

Bidding Farewell To a Citys Precious Stone

Brownstones occupy a unique place in the New York City psyche, as one of the citys most prototypical signposts, like yellow cabs and fast walkers, yet are able to stir aching desire and teeth-baring jealousy. Everybody wants one. Thousands of these structures are crammed into the five boroughs, like sideways stacks of very expensive pancakes. As it turns out, most of them are not only cast from the same mold, but were also made from the same stone, a brown sandstone quarried in Portland, Conn. After being mined on and off for centuries, the Portland Brownstone Quarries, the very last of a kind, closed down this year, and by the end of this month, the quarrys final scraps of inventory should be gone. Preservationists are bemoaning the end of an era, or at least of the chance for a perfect match for the citys ubiquitous stone. And as Portlands diamond-studded saws have slowed to their final rest, some stone fabricators have begun to lovingly, respectfully hoard the stuff. Were all scrambling to grab that stone, said George Heckel of Pasvalco, stone fabricators in New Jersey. If youre thinking about achieving the look and feel of a New York City brownstone, youre not going to get that anymore. Not everyone, however, is sad to say goodbye to this particular building block. Thats because the stone, the object of so many New Yorkers obsessions, is considered to be rather mediocre. I remember some quote saying it was the worst stone ever quarried, said Timothy Lynch, the executive director of the Buildings Departments forensic unit. Its like New York City is covered in cold chocolate. That old-time brownstone hater was likely to be Edith Wharton, who called it the most hideous stone ever quarried. Today, architectural conservators and historians say that most of the citys brownstone facades have been replaced with brown cement-based masonry. Brownstone began appearing in New York City buildings in a significant way during the first half of the 19th century, and it quickly became the stone of choice for row house developers. (Brownstones are actually brick houses built with a stone facing.) Stone from Portlands quarries came out of the ground near the Connecticut River, so it was easy to get it to New York City as well as to other cities up and down the East Coast and was relatively soft, which made it easy to carve. Unfortunately that softness, along with corner-cutting by developers and the extremes of New York Citys weather, made the stone liable to crumble, crack and flake. By the late 19th century, people were already complaining about this, said Andrew S. Dolkart, director of the historic preservation program at Columbia University. The stone fell out of fashion, and by the 1940s, the Portland quarries, flooded by the Connecticut River in a major storm, were shuttered. It wasnt until the mid-1990s that Mike Meehan, a geologist with a background in coal exploration, reopened the ground at the edge of the quarry, slicing chunks of brownstone off a wall about 20 feet high and 650 feet long. But most of the area is still filled with water, and Mr. Meehans closest neighbor is a recreational water park, where zip lines crisscross an old brownstone quarry. Were up here breaking stones and there are people over there yelling, Yay! Mr. Meehan said. Its a pleasant diversion at lunchtime. Brownstone, which is really just a brown sandstone, is still quarried in a few spots around the world including Britain, China and Utah but stone fabricators and materials experts say that there is really nothing quite like the stone that comes from Portland. Much of Mr. Meehans stone has been used in historic buildings and restoration projects, including Cooper Union, as well as lavish private homes. Im telling you, he was our

CHRISTOPHER CAPOZZIELLO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mike Meehan, the owner of Portland Brownstone Quarries, which supplied the brown sandstone that most of New Yorks brownstones were made from. The quarry, in Connecticut, closed this year. At right, brownstones line Berkeley Place in Brooklyn.
hero, said Michael Devonshire, an architectural conservator and materials expert at Jan Hird Pokorny Associates, a New York architecture firm that specializes in preservation. No matter where its from, however, brownstone is no longer cheap. Jim Durham, the president of Quarra Stone Company in Madison, Wis., recently bought a dozen truckloads of stone from Mr. Meehan, the last of his large blocks. Mr. Durham estimated Portland Stone to be two or three times the price of Indiana limestone, the vanilla ice cream of stone, he said. So cast stone (generally cement based) or stucco substitutions (cement again) are common alternatives. After nearly 20 years at the quarry, Mr. Meehan said his company had extracted what it could

BRIAN HARKIN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

from the quarry without making significant investments to get more. The land, which he leases, has been put up for sale. At 63, he said, he is ready to move on. But there is one more person who plans to hoard some of Mr.

Meehans remaining little slabs: Mr. Meehan. Im going to keep working the stuff for my retirement, he said. Bird baths, benches, things like that. Mr. Meehan has no intention of

selling what he makes, he said. He just wants to carve away with his circular saw for fun. If his neighbors get upset about the noise, he added: Ill make each one of them a bird bath. And then how could they complain?

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THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A19

New York Officer to Serve 15 Years for Stealing Police Guns Charges Being Dropped
By RUSS BUETTNER

A New York City police officer agreed on Monday to serve more than 15 years in prison as part of a plea bargain under which he admitted to stealing guns from his colleagues precinct house lockers and selling them. The officer, Nicholas Mina, 32, was arrested in July along with four other defendants who prosecutors said worked in concert despite their diverse backgrounds. In addition to Mr. Mina, the group included a former dotcom millionaire, a longtime police informer and a 64-year-old woman. Mr. Mina, whose lawyer said he had stolen the guns to support an addiction to pain medication, is the third of the five to plead guilty to selling guns and to other charges. Ivan Chavez, 25, who had served as a confidential police informer on other illegal gun cases, was sentenced to 20 years in prison. Marcos Echevarria, 22, was sentenced to eight years in prison. Charges are still pending against Meryl Leibowitz, 64, and Jennifer Sultan, 38. Ms. Sultan co-

JOHN MARSHALL MANTEL FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Nicholas Mina, a suspended police officer, on Monday at court, where he pleaded guilty to stealing his colleagues guns.
founded an Internet company that sold for $70 million, mostly in stock, in 2000 and lived in a 6,000square-foot loft just off Union Square at the time of her arrest. Like Mr. Mina, Ms. Sultan had also developed an addiction to pain medication, her lawyer said. Mr. Mina, who was assigned to the Ninth Precinct in the East Village, came under scrutiny after undercover detectives buying stolen weapons realized that some were loaded with policeissue ammunition. He has been suspended without pay from the Police Department since his arrest and will be fired as a result of his guilty plea. He had been a member of the department for four and a half years when he was arrested.

Mr. Mina, who had been held without bail, appeared healthier and better rested on Monday in his court appearance in State Supreme Court in Manhattan than he had upon his arrest three months ago. Wearing an orange jail-issue jumpsuit and a new beard and mustache, he said nothing beyond quietly answering, Yes, sir to questions from Justice Edward J. McLaughlin. Mr. Mina pleaded guilty to nine felony counts, including criminal sale of a firearm, criminal sale of a controlled substance, conspiracy and grand larceny. He is scheduled to be formally sentenced to 15 years in prison on Nov. 7. The Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., said Mr. Mina had given criminals access to guns during a year in which 154 people were shot in Manhattan, 19 of them fatally. As a New York City police officer, Nicholas Mina had the duty to protect citizens, but instead, he put their lives, and the lives of his fellow officers, at risk, Mr. Vance said in a statement.

In Arrest at a Jewish Center

By WENDY RUDERMAN

A Bodega in Brooklyn, Offering Candy and Contraband

From Page A16 agreed, adding, If he didnt have something, hed get it and in a big size. That was important for Mr. McNeil, whose 6-f00t-6, 260pound frame towered over other shop regulars. I just hope God has him and he brings him right back to us, he said. Mr. McNeil brightened at the sight of Clarence Greenwood, a musician who left the neighborhood for Prospect Park South in February but returned on Sunday to see if the store was back open. Mr. Greenwood, 44, sat on a picnic bench with a newspaper and remembered how Mr. Jawad would joke with customers, shouting through a screen window by the door. He was here when the neighborhood wasnt like this, he said, looking up and down the block to take it in: a bicycle shop; a real estate agency; a dry cleaner turned into an upscale clothing store. The arrests appeared to bring a bit of unwanted reality back to a stretch of Lafayette Avenue where the bad old days can seem with dingy floors and half-empty shelves, as an eyesore, or worse. A woman emerging from a yoga studio a few doors down said the place had another reputation among newer residents. It was a well-known neighborhood secret that drugs were sold there, said the woman, who declined to give her name but said she lived nearby on South Oxford Street. Lounging in the warm afternoon sun outside Mos Bar, three women originally from Houston described the store across the way as sketchy and cracked jokes about the arrests. No way that place is selling enough sandwiches to pay the rent, said Lauren Wills, 26, an interior designer and nearby resident since 2004. You should try to buy a special sandwich and see what they put in it, said Emily Worthington, 26, who works in fashion and lives in TriBeCa. Im afraid to go in there. A third friend, as if on a dare, crossed the street and entered Ralphs. She returned with a dose of Alka-Seltzer.

CHESTER HIGGINS JR./THE NEW YORK TIMES

Ralph Jawad in 2005. His store, on the same corner for years, has become a pillar of constancy in a changing neighborhood.
a distant memory. Despite a recent jump in some crimes burglaries and assaults are up over the last two years, according to local precinct statistics a visitor to the area is more likely to encounter bespoke fashions or artisanal chocolate than street crime. Im clearly part of the change, said Alischa Kugel, 32, who rents an apartment above the store from Mr. Jawad. The Jawad family owns several buildings in the area, the community board said. I feel like I became part of the neighborhood because of Ralph, she added, saying she regularly stopped in for milk, toilet paper and advice. Others, however, saw the shop,

The Brooklyn district attorney, Charles J. Hynes, dropped all criminal charges on Monday against a young man whose arrest inside a Jewish community center in Brooklyn led to allegations of police brutality. Police officers stated in a criminal complaint that the man, Ehud Halevy, 21, attacked them, causing one to suffer a sprained wrist, during an Oct. 8 encounter inside the Alternative Learning Institute for Young Adults on East New York Avenue in Crown Heights. Mr. Halevy was charged with a felony count of assault on police officers and a slew of other charges, including resisting arrest and criminal trespass. But a video of the arrest, posted on the Internet on Oct. 14, showed two officers from the 71st Precinct repeatedly striking Mr. Halevy, and casting doubt on the officers version of the episode. While the video shows Mr. Halevy trying to pull away from Officer Luis A. Vega and using his arms to break free, it does not show him striking either officer. Mr. Hynes informed Mr. Halevys lawyer, Norman Siegel, of his decision to drop the charges during an afternoon meeting, and issued a statement, of one sentence, announcing the dismissal of the charges. We are very pleased, Mr. Siegel said. Justice was done. Mr. Siegel said he had asked the district attorney to bring criminal charges against the two officers, pointing out that it was a misdemeanor for the police to make false statements. There were numerous inconsistencies and inaccuracies in the criminal complaint, Mr. Siegel said. Why is the complaint not accurate? That in and of itself is a Class A misdemeanor. Mr. Hynes did not say whether he would take any action against the officers, merely saying that the investigation was continuing, according to Mr. Siegel. Mr. Siegel also said that he would ask Raymond W. Kelly, the New York City police commissioner, to bring disciplinary charges against the officers. The charges against Mr. Halevy are expected to be formally dropped during a court hearing

Wednesday morning, Mr. Siegel said. The surveillance video, taken by a camera in the centers lounge, shows Officer Vega assuming a boxers stance and punching Mr. Halevy in the head in successive blows. It also shows his partner, Yelena Bruzzese, striking Mr. Halevy with a baton for more than two minutes. After viewing the video last week, the Police Departments Internal Affairs Bureau and the district attorneys office opened separate investigations. Commissioner Kelly placed Officer Vega on restricted duty. Officers Vega and Bruzzese were responding to a 911 call of a dispute inside the youth outreach

Video of an encounter with a Brooklyn man appears to contradict the claims of officers.
center. The police call was made by a center volunteer who told officers that he had found Mr. Halevy sleeping naked on a couch in the lounge and that he refused to leave. The center volunteer, according to the criminal complaint, said Mr. Halevy did not have permission to sleep there. However, in a later interview, Rabbi Moishe Feiglin, a director at the outreach center, said Mr. Halevy had been given permission to sleep at the center and had been spending nights there for about a month. The video led to widespread condemnation from community leaders who questioned how the officers had handled the arrest and whether the arrest should have been made to begin with. Paul J. Browne, chief spokesman for the Police Department, declined to comment.

Everything you need to know for your business day is in Business Day. The New York Times

A20

THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A Wedding Celebration Dispels a Buildings Woe

By VIVIAN YEE

The vast glass-and-marble lobby of the former Bear Stearns building at 383 Madison Avenue has seen its share of celebration and woe. Between the buildings construction in 2001 and the banks collapse in 2008, it was the scene of Christmas parties, executive functions, even an appearance by Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. In 2008, employees stripped of jobs and pensions left gallows-humor graffiti on a portrait of the banks former chief executive. But on Saturday, 383 as Bear Stearns employees used to call it hosted a new kind of Bear event: a merger of the marital variety between former employees who had met there. For the couple, Leigh Holliday, 40, and Justin Brannan, 34, Bear was the place that took them in despite their artists backgrounds, unconventional personas and lack of Ivy League degrees. It was where they met, on the 36th floor, Mr. Brannan delivering logo umbrellas for his boss to Ms. Hollidays boss (they now have matching umbrella tattoos). Finally, it was where they married, under the soft blue glow of the stock tickers. We knew no one had ever gotten married there before, butit didnt matter we had to try, said Mr. Brannan, a touring punk musician in his pre-Bear days who now runs an art school for children in Brooklyn with Ms. Holliday and is an aide to a city councilman. They called Alan C. Greenberg, the banks longtime

City Room
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chairman, who is known as Ace. He was like, Well take care of it, and then hung up, Mr. Brannan recalled. On Saturday, bagpipers from Mr. Brannans high school in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, led Ms. Holliday, wearing a long white gown and accompanied by her mother, through the revolving doors at 47th Street and Vanderbilt Avenue to the other end of the lobby. The officiant, Frank Seddio, chairman of the Brooklyn Democratic Party, slipped in a wisecrack or two before getting on to the traditional vows. This is an interesting location for a wedding, as you might know, he told the guests. I guess we can say that something really good did come out of Bear Stearnss collapse, he added, drawing laughs. Those who had thought the setting was odd found themselves converts by the ceremonys end. My first thought was, fantastic! said the brides mother, Georgia Holliday. Then I said, Wait a minute, whoever gets married in the lobby of a financial institution? But when she realized how much Bear Stearns had meant to the couple, she decided, Maybe its meant to be. Ms. Holliday studied art at Cor-

NICOLE BENGIVENO/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Justin Brannan and Leigh Holliday at their wedding in the lobby of the former Bear Stearns building in Midtown on Saturday.
coran College of Art and Design and arrived at Bear Stearns after a stint at a Dutch investment bank, ending up as a project manager in the corporate real estate division. Mr. Brannan had been a temp at several banks in between touring with his hard-core band, Most Precious Blood. At Bear Stearns, he was hired to clerk for several hedge fund managers. In the budding days of their romance, they wrote words backward in their e-mails to evade compliance officers. (Little did we know, I think Compliance had their hands full at that time and they probably werent all that concerned with our sweetheart e-mails, Mr. Brannan said.) Their first date was at the fragrance counter at Saks Fifth Avenue. Later on, they met in the shampoo aisle of a pharmacy near Grand Central Terminal to kiss. And on New Years Eve last year, Mr. Brannan proposed at their art school in Bay Ridge, the Art Room. When Bear Stearns collapsed, both were asked to join the transition team for themerger with JPMorgan Chase. Ms. Holliday stayed for a year; Mr. Brannan decided that it was time to move on and began working as a charity fund-raiser. Now, in addition to helping run the art school, he is the communications directorfor City Councilman Vincent J. Gentile. One guest, Jim Lang, a former managing director of Ms. Hollidays division, found the location particularly poignant. He had overseen the buildings development and construction, then lost most of his pension in the collapse. Its a shame Bears gone, Mr. Lang said, but the building is there.

Ex-Official at SUNY Charged $131,000 in Personal Expenses to Foundation, Audit Finds

By THOMAS KAPLAN

A former senior official at the Research Foundation for the State University of New York used his foundation credit card to pay for nearly $131,000 in hockey tickets, iPhones, Godiva chocolates, groceries and other personal expenses, according to an audit released on Monday. The review, by the state comptroller, Thomas P. DiNapoli, also questioned why foundation money had been used to pay for a private club membership for the chancellor of the State University system, Nancy L. Zimpher, and for alcoholic beverages at func-

tions hosted by her office. And it raised broader concerns about weak controls over spending and procurement at the foundation, which supports nearly $1 billion in research across the State University system each year. For too long, SUNY Research Foundation employees took advantage of lax oversight to cheat taxpayers, skirt state laws and violate the foundations own policies, Mr. DiNapoli said in a statement. The audit comes almost 17 months after the president of the research foundation, John J. OConnor, resigned under scru-

tiny. The state ethics commission had accused him of giving a noshow job to Susan Bruno, the daughter of a former State Senate majority leader, Joseph L. Bruno; Mr. DiNapolis office said it had referred questions regarding Ms. Brunos employment to the attorney generals office. The State University system started its own review of the research foundation before the comptrollers audit. In a statement on Monday, Dr. Zimpher described the audit as an opportunity to acknowledge past problems and said the foundation had put in place new policies in

many of the areas that Mr. DiNapoli highlighted. The foundation also put in place a new leader earlier this year, Timothy Killeen, who had been a top official at the National Science Foundation. I am committed to ensuring that the New R.F. exceeds all expectations of accountability and integrity, Dr. Killeen said on Monday. The most provocative findings in the audit focused on Edgar H. Turkle III, the former director of the research foundations operations at Buffalo State College. The audit found that Mr. Turkle used his credit card to pay for

items like a birthday celebration for his wife and season tickets to Buffalo Sabres hockey games. Mr. Turkle also was found to have incurred $125,000 in charges for foreign travel, mostly to Asia, over a four-year period. He told auditors that he often accompanied Buffalo State faculty members on trips to China and Thailand because, he said: I am the guy. No other way to put it. After being alerted by the comptrollers office, the research foundation conducted its own investigation. It fired Mr. Turkle in February and referred its findings to the Albany County district

attorney, P. David Soares, as did Mr. DiNapoli. A spokeswoman for Mr. Soares declined to comment on Monday. Mr. Turkle could not be reached. The audit also raised concerns about foundation spending from its so-called chancellors account, including $9,822 spent on Dr. Zimphers initiation fee and dues at the Fort Orange Club, a private club near the State Capitol, and $13,172 for beverages. The statement from Dr. Zimphers office defended those expenses as legitimate but said she had canceled her club membership in December 2010.

THE NEW YORK TIMES NEW YORK TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A21

Nurse Testifies on Scuffle With a Kennedy

By VIVIAN YEE

MOUNT KISCO, N.Y. When Anna Lane, one of the nurses involved in a January scuffle between hospital employees and Douglas Kennedy, the youngest son of Robert F. Kennedy, choked up on the witness stand on the first day of Mr. Kennedys trial, the prosecutor questioning her gently encouraged her to keep telling her story. She covered her face with her hand and wiped away tears before describing how Mr. Kennedy had grabbed her left hand, twisted her arm away from the doorknob she was guarding and kicked another nurse, all in an attempt to take his 2-day-old son out of Northern Westchester Hospital on Jan. 7, against regulations, for some fresh air. Prosecutors say he endangered his newborn son and physically harassed nurses during the confrontation, during which, they contend, he told a security guard, Do you know who I am? But in Ms. Lanes tears, Mr. Kennedys lawyer Robert Gottlieb saw an opportunity. Mr. Gott-

YANA PASKOVA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Douglas Kennedys trial began Monday in Mount Kisco, N.Y.

lieb aimed a series of rapid-fire questions at Ms. Lane, forcing her to acknowledge that she had hired a personal-injury lawyer a week after the confrontation, then authorized the lawyer to threaten Mr. Kennedy with a lawsuit unless he agreed to pay compensation for two nurses injuries and post-traumatic stress disorder and to apologize to them on the Today show. (Ms. Lane has said she was not looking for money, only an apology.) Mr. Gottlieb questioned Ms. Lanes decision to tell her story on television in February, drawing a contrast between her tears on the witness stand and her television appearance. Its difficult to publicly relive this traumatic incident, correct? Thats why you arranged to go on the Today show and relive this with a heck of a lot more people than are in this courtroom? he said. Anybody force you to go on the Today show? Mr. Gottlieb and Celia Gordon, another defense lawyer, had tried to paint Mr. Kennedy as a calm, reasonable man who acted defensively when nurses became abrasive. They asked witnesses to acknowledge that Mr. Kennedy, who is charged with harassment and child endangerment, had spoken politely and calmly until nurses tried to block him from an elevator and a stairwell. But prosecutors framed Mr. Kennedys behavior as reckless and erratic, endangering his newborn son, Bo, as he acted aggressively and unreasonably toward the nurses, who said they were forced to call security when Mr. Kennedy continued to ignore their pleas.

Kennedy Property Is Listed for Sale

The property in Westchester County where the estranged wife of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. committed suicide in May is now for sale for almost $4 million. A listing on the Web site of Ginnel Real Estate refers to the three-story, 10,000-square-foot colonial-style home, in the Mount Kisco area, as a state-of-the-art and eco-friendly country estate with geothermal heating and cooling, energy-efficient appliances and fiber-optic lighting. It sits on 10 acres on South Bedford Road. Muffin Dowdle, the agent listed as managing the sale, did not respond to requests for comment. The names of Mr. Kennedy and his estranged wife, Mary R. Kennedy, appear on a deed for the property, as well as on a record of a $500,000 mortgage taken out on the residence in June 2010. The Kennedys were embroiled in divorce and child-custody proceedings in the period before Ms. Kennedys death. The body of Ms. Kennedy, 52, was found in a barn on the property. The medical examiner said she died of asphyxiation after hanging herself.

Under hospital policy, no one can remove newborns from the maternity unit without being discharged or without permission from a medical authority, maternity ward employees testified Monday. Ms. Lane said she repeatedly asked Mr. Kennedy to put the baby in his bassinet or return with his son to his wifes room while nurses sought permission for him to leave, but Mr. Kennedy refused. He actually stated he didnt need permission. He was going to go out through the E.R. to get fresh air; he didnt need permission, Ms. Lane said. I told him that I couldnt let him go outside. In response, an emergency room physician standing nearby, a family friend of Mr. Kennedy, said it was Machiavellian to think that a nurse could tell him what to do, Ms. Lane testified. Angela Adamo, a nurse who spoke to Mr. Kennedy in the maternity ward when he first appeared carrying his son, said hospital policy dictated that babies be transported only in bassinets or in small isolation units in the hallways. The baby was also improperly dressed to go outside, she added. Both Ms. Adamo and Marsha Semple, a concierge in the maternity ward, described a commotion as Mr. Kennedy removed the babys security anklet, causing an alarm to sound, then moved to the elevators, prompting nurses to call security. Sitting in front of a group of relatives and other supporters, including his wife, Molly, and at least two of his siblings, Mr. Kennedy, 45, appeared calm as he listened to the testimony in Mount Kisco Justice Court. By days end, the focus of the trial had shifted to the motives of the nurses. Ms. Lane said she had sought a lawyer because she felt the police were not acting quickly enough to file charges. I was actually offended with being proposed a settlement, she said of her lawyers proposal. She said she had tried to bring attention to her case to place more exposure on violence in hospitals and what happened to me, that I was assaulted. She considered filing a lawsuit, she said, but was not looking for money only an apology. Did you ever think that you would get it? asked Amy Puerto, one of the assistant district attorneys prosecuting the case, prompting a loud objection from Mr. Gottlieb. The objection was sustained.

A22

THE NEW YORK TIMES EDITORIALS/LETTERS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

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The Final Debate

Mr. Romney falters on foreign policy, sounding confused and incoherent
Mitt Romney has nothing really coherent or substantive to say about domestic policy, but at least he can sound energetic and confident about it. On foreign policy, the subject of Monday nights final presidential debate, he had little coherent to say and often sounded completely lost. Thats because he has no original ideas of substance on most world issues, including Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. During the debate, on issue after issue, Mr. Romney sounded as if he had read the boldfaced headings in a briefing book or a freshman global history textbook and had not gone much further than that. Twice during the first half-hour, he mentioned that Al Qaeda-affiliated groups were active in northern Mali. Was that in the mornings briefing book? At other times, he announced that he had a strategy for the Middle East, particularly Iran and Syria, and really for the whole world, but gave no clue what it would be much like his claim that he has a plan to create 12 million jobs and balance the budget while also cutting taxes, but will not say what it is. At his worst, Mr. Romney sounded like a beauty pageant contestant groping for an answer to the final question. We want a peaceful planet, he said. We want people to be able to enjoy their lives and know theyre going to have a bright and prosperous future and not be at war. He added that the United States didnt ask for the mantle of global leadership but was willing to wear it. We wondered what Ronald Reagan would have thought of that. Mr. Romneys problem is that he does not actually have any real ideas on foreign policy beyond what President Obama has already done, or plans to do. He supports the planned withdrawal from Afghanistan and was quick to insist on Monday night that he would pull out by 2014. He thinks there should be economic sanctions on Iran, and he thinks the United States should be encouraging Syrian opposition forces that seem moderate. Mr. Romney said he would work with Saudi Arabia and Qatar on this, but those governments are funneling arms to the jihadist groups that he says he abhors. The president kept up the attack at virtually every opportunity, showing no sign of the oddly disconnected Barack Obama who lost the first debate. When Mr. Romney called for spending more money on the military than the United States can afford or the military wants, Mr. Obama moved in: You mentioned the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets. Mr. Romney tried to revive the Republican claim that Mr. Obama conducted an apology tour at the start of his presidency, which Mr. Obama correctly called the biggest whopper of a campaign that has been filled with them. And he took a dig at Mr. Romneys recent world travels. When I went to Israel as a candidate, he said, I didnt take donors, I didnt attend fund-raisers. Mr. Romney tried to say that the president had wasted the last four years in trying to stop Irans nuclear weapons program. But Mr. Obama said, Weve been able to mobilize the world. When I came into office, the world was divided. Iran was resurgent. Iran is at its weakest point, economically, strategically, militarily. Mr. Romney tried to set himself apart from Mr. Obama on Iran, but ended up sounding particularly incoherent. At one point he said he would indict President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on genocide charges. He gave no clue how he would do that; like many of his comments, it was merely a sound bite. Mr. Obama hit Mr. Romney hard on his ever-shifting positions on world affairs, including comments he made in 2008 disparaging the idea that killing Osama bin Laden should be a priority. You said we should ask Pakistan for permission, Mr. Obama said. If we had asked Pakistan for permission, we would not have gotten it. Mr. Romneys closing statement summed it all up. He said almost nothing about foreign policy. He moved back to his comfort zone: cheerfully delivered disinformation about domestic policy.

The Promise of Renewable Energy

TO THE EDITOR:

David Brookss Oct. 19 column, A Sad Green Story, unfairly brands clean technology subsidies as wasteful corporate welfare. He does not mention the numerous subsidies, in the form of research grants, sweetheart resource extraction contracts and costly foreign policy interventions, that have benefited fossil fuels for decades. The reluctance of both political parties to eliminate these subsidies puts clean technologies at a competitive disadvantage. We must recognize the importance of government subsidies in developing promising yet unproven carbon-reducing technologies, an area where the private sector historically underinvests. National climate change legislation would level the playing field between fossil fuels and new clean energy sources. Californias carbon cap-and-trade program can serve as a road map for developing aggressive, technology-neutral emission targets. By pioneering economywide carbon regulations, California is setting the foundation for a financially sustainable clean tech sector that will someday drive the California economy. ADAM LANGTON Berkeley, Calif., Oct. 21, 2012
TO THE EDITOR:

competitiveness benefits American consumers and the economy. Solar is a story of successful innovation, and no one should doubt Americas ability to innovate. The failure of a few companies should not be used as a blanket to cover up a thriving industry. RANDY BISHOP LYNN JURICH DANNY KENNEDY Torrance, Calif., Oct. 22, 2012 Mr. Bishop is chief executive of Verengo Solar, Ms. Jurich is co-chief executive of SunRun, and Mr. Kennedy is president of Sungevity.
TO THE EDITOR:

David Brooks does indeed tell A Sad Green Story about the declining support he sees for alternative and renewable energy. But his blaming of former Vice President Al Gore is revealing: Gore mobilized liberals, but, once he became the global warming spokesman, no Republican could stand shoulder to shoulder with him and survive. Any slim chance of building a bipartisan national consensus was gone. If Mr. Gores support for an issue is a justification for Republicans opposing it, Mr. Brooks has said more about the state of that party than any campaign ad ever could do. MICHAEL GREEN Las Vegas, Oct. 19, 2012
TO THE EDITOR:

Will Foreclosure Abuses Ever End?

Proposed rules from the consumer bureau would not provide the needed protections
The creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is arguably the best reform to emerge from the Dodd-Frank law. An effective bureau will rectify and prevent lending abuses and ensure that consumer protection is a central priority in a sound banking system. Yet, for all that promise, the bureaus recent proposal to regulate the foreclosure process is a disappointment. At issue is mortgage servicing, an industry that is dominated by big banks and involves processing mortgage payments for investors who actually own the loans. When homeowners do not pay on time, it is up to servicers to manage defaults, loan modifications and foreclosures. The problem is that as delinquencies surged in the housing bust, mortgage servicers proved themselves incompetent or worse, deceptive and abusive in doing the job. The result has been potentially millions of wrongful foreclosures, in which troubled borrowers have not been given a fair shot at modifying their loans and keeping their homes. There have been good attempts by federal regulators and Obama administration officials to address the worst practices. For instance, a legal settlement over foreclosure abuses, reached earlier this year between five banks and state and federal officials, included curbs on conflicts of interest that led banks to favor foreclosures over modifications. The settlement also included safeguards against violations of borrowers legal rights in a foreclosure, and a crucial ban on dual tracking, the confusing practice in which servicers evaluate borrowers for loan modifications while simultaneously initiating foreclosure. In addition, the administrations antiforeclosure programs established specific tests for participating banks to use in evaluating borrowers for loan modifications, and then required banks to offer new loan terms to all eligible borrowers. It is up to the consumer bureau, however, to write permanent new rules for the entire industry. Consumer advocates widely expected the bureau to incorporate and expand the reforms in the foreclosure settlement and other antiforeclosure protocols. Instead, the proposal retreats from many existing requirements. It does not impose any meaningful standards for loan modifications beyond those already required by various federal programs and agreements, many of which will expire in the future and none of which apply to the entire industry. In a stunning reversal, the proposal actually permits dual tracking. In place of concrete standards, the bureaus proposal largely relies on procedural reforms, like requiring servicers to establish reasonable policies for managing paperwork and answering phone calls from borrowers; to contact borrowers at an early stage of delinquency; and to adhere to deadlines for responding to borrowers who need help. Such requirements are not nearly enough. Whats needed are requirements to make sure that all borrowers facing hardship are considered for loan modifications according to specific, publicly available criteria, and that loans are modified for all eligible borrowers. Dual tracking must be prohibited, and if foreclosure is unavoidable, servicers must provide borrowers with verification of their legal right to foreclose before starting the process. The bureau has sought comment and criticism of its proposal. Working with consumer advocates, it now needs to rework and vastly improve the mortgage servicing rules.

David Brooks writes that the story of clean energy, including solar, is one of overreach, misjudgments and disappointment. Facts disprove these claims. Today there is 12 times more solar installed in the United States than just five years ago. American solar jobs grew 10 times faster than the general economy last year. And growth will continue: McKinsey & Company projected that residential solar costs could decline another 67 percent to 83 percent by 2020. Mr. Brooks states correctly that solar panel costs fell 75 percent in four years. This is not a disappointment but an indicator of success. The race to solar cost

David Brooks calls our national investments in renewable energy technology a story of overreach, misjudgments and disappointment since some companies have failed and fossil fuels remain popular. Of course we should learn from the failures. But every technological revolution, from the automobile to the Internet, has been full of stories of overreach, misjudgments and disappointment. Thats how innovation happens. BRUCE BURGER Seattle, Oct. 19, 2012

Invitation to a Dialogue: Voting on Gay Marriage

TO THE EDITOR:

Trespassing in Your Own Home

District attorneys offices in New York City have generally supported the Police Department or kept quiet about their reservations during the escalating battle over the departments stop-and-frisk program, under which hundreds of thousands of citizens are stopped every year, often for no reason. But a hearing under way in Federal District Court in Manhattan is featuring an open and fiery dispute between the Police Department and an assistant district attorney from the Bronx, who has testified that her office began to have misgivings about the legality of some trespassing arrests as far back as five years ago. The federal lawsuit, Ligon v. City of New York, was brought on behalf of people who say they were illegally stopped, given tickets or arrested on trespassing charges in apartment buildings, some in buildings where they lived. The suit focuses on the citys two-decade-old Clean Halls program, under which police officers patrol private buildings with the permission of landlords. Jeannette Rucker, a veteran prosecutor, recounted that her office began to have questions about many of the Police Departments trespassing arrests in the past several years. She said Bronx judges just started dismissing these cases left and right because they believed that the officers had no legitimate legal reason for approaching the people who had been arrested sometimes merely because they had been seen entering or leaving a Clean Halls building. Her staff also told her that judges were throwing out cases because the police had charged people with trespassing in their own buildings. In a memo in April 2009, Ms. Rucker notified the Police Department that trespassing cases had become problematic for the district attorneys office because judges were dismissing them for insufficient cause. The memo cautioned officers to check to establish peoples residency and to determine whether they were legitimate visitors. Yet the improper arrests were still a big problem two years later. Ms. Rucker testified that in 2011, we were getting people who were arrested who were tenants. We were getting people arrested who . . . were lawful visitors. And Im like: What can we do to stop this? Last year, the Bronx district attorneys office issued another memo to the police, noting that courts had held that a person who merely exited a Clean Halls building could not be legally stopped unless the officer had a clear reason to suspect criminality. This summer, Ms. Rucker notified the Police Department that her office would no longer prosecute Clean Halls or public housing trespassing cases based on paperwork and would require that officers be interviewed. The case could potentially go into next year. But the prosecutors testimony is strong evidence of the programs problems and the Police Departments failure to protect peoples constitutional rights.

Frank Schubert wants to crush gay marriage in every state (In the Fight Against Same-Sex Marriage, a Strategist Casts the Issue Anew, news article, Oct. 10). He is working diligently against same-sex marriage in referendums in Maryland, Minnesota, Maine and Washington. His pitch: Voting against gay marriage doesnt mean youre homophobic. It just means you dont believe in gay marriage. What could be wrong with that? Though the anti-gay-marriage ballot was passed in my state, Michigan, eight years ago, part of me remains suspended in disbelief. I simply cant adjust to the idea that whether I can marry was put to a vote. As a result of that vote, my partner will never benefit from my pension or Social Security. She had to turn down a career opportunity in Australia because I was unable to obtain the equivalent of a marriage visa. Worst of all, I cannot legally adopt my son, who is her biological child. I have to carry a document with me at all times, signed by my partner, allowing me to make medical decisions for him in an emergency. Ask my son, Who are your parents? He will run to both his moms. We are a family. The states failure to accept this truth is a mockery of justice and flies in the face of rationality. Some people think that equality can be achieved by offering gays civil unions in lieu of marriage. Civil unions are not a substitute for marriage. Separate rights are never equal rights. There is an obvious solution to the marriage debate. Marriage should be

TOPOS GRAPHICS

returned to its original state as a religious sacrament. If marriage were conferred solely by religious institutions, each church, synagogue, mosque or other house of worship could decide, based on its doctrine, whom to marry, without government interference. Some would undoubtedly recognize gay marriage while others would not. The government would offer civil unions of equal legal status to all couples, regardless of sexual orientation, and it would do so without intrusion from religion. ANNE DOHRENWEND Ann Arbor, Mich., Oct. 22, 2012 The writer is the author of Coming Around: Parenting Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Kids. Editors Note: We invite readers to respond for the Sunday Dialogue. We plan to publish responses and Ms. Dohrenwends rejoinder in the Sunday Review. E-mail: letters@nytimes.com

McGoverns Legacy: Weighing the Burden of War

TO THE EDITOR:

Re A Prairie Liberal, Trounced but Never Silenced (obituary, front page, Oct. 22): The death of George McGovern, the South Dakota senator and Democratic presidential nominee in 1972, reminded me that he was ahead of his time. Senator McGoverns platform included ending the Vietnam War and also called for spending the billions wasted on the war on rebuilding America. Mr. McGovern was too proud to emphasize his military experience as a decorated World War II bomber pilot in the 1972

contest against Richard M. Nixon, who tried to portray him as soft on defense. Fast forward to today: consider the expenditure of trillions of dollars on our Iraq and Afghan wars. Was it worth spending the dollars and lives for what we have received in return? LARRY PENNER Great Neck, N.Y., Oct. 22, 2012
TO THE EDITOR:

ONLINE: MORE LETTERS

Taking a cue from the Venetian Republics longevity: Responses to a Sunday Review essay, The Self-Destruction of the 1 Percent.
nytimes.com/opinion

As college students, we met through George McGoverns presidential campaign on our campus and eventually married. Some years later, we told him after a speech he gave that we got married because of him. He replied with a smile, Thats good to hear, because I also caused a lot of divorces. He was a decent, honorable and brave man, and we will miss him. STEVEN BARKAN BARBARA TENNENT Holden, Me., Oct. 22, 2012

THE NEW YORK TIMES OP-ED TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

A23

FRANK BRUNI

DAVID BROOKS

Heated In Florida
So thats it? The last of the presidential debates? No, no, no. Im already in mourning, cant quiet my hankering for more and am not being remotely sarcastic. In a political culture as stage-managed, focus-grouped and airbrushed as ours, these debates gave us rare moments of rawness, not to mention Big Bird. Monday nights face-off in Boca Raton was no exception. Any worry that the designated focus on foreign policy would tilt this encounter in a cerebral rather than visceral direction was dispelled almost instantly. Within minutes the candidates were sharply talking over each other, and President Obama, banishing his debacle in Denver once and for all, issued a denunciation of Mitt Romney more sweeping than any from the previous two presidential debates. Turning to his rival, he said, You seem to want to import the foreign policies of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s and the economic policies of the 1920s. Romney smiled a brittle smile: Attacking me is not an agenda. It was as good an answer as any, but he had an odd color and odder sheen, that of a man without Dramamine on a rickety boat in threatening seas. Obama repeatedly reminded television viewers that he alone was familiar with the responsibilities of the commander in chief. He clearly wanted Romneys experience as a mere governor to sound, in comparison, like a job running a curbside lemonade stand. And though Romney perspired and occasionally stammered, he wouldnt surrender. He insisted that Al Qaeda wasnt really on the run. He claimed yet again that Obama had begun his presidency with an apology tour, and faulted him for skipping Israel. It was a barb tailor-made for Floridas many Jewish voters. Foreign policy is not at the top of voters concerns, so both candidates demonstrated a comic eagerness to build an or-

Poll Addict Confesses

Hello, my name is David, and Im a pollaholic. For the past several months I have spent inordinate amounts of time poring over election polls. A couple of times a day, I check the Web sites to see what the polling averages are. I check my Twitter feed to see the latest Gallup numbers. Ive read countless articles dissecting the flawed methodologies of polls I dont like. And do you know what Ive learned from these hours of attention? That if the election were held today (which it wont be), then President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. At the same time, there seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney. Thats it. Hundreds of hours. Two banal observations. I have wasted a large chunk of my life I will never get back. Why? Because Ive got a problem. Look, I know in the cool light of rationality how I should treat polling data. First, I should treat polls as a fuzzy snapshot of a moment in time. I should not read them, and think I understand the future. If theres one thing we know, its that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior. Financial firms with zillions of dollars have spent decades trying to create models that will help them pick stocks, and they have gloriously failed. Scholars at Duke University studied 11,600 forecasts by corporate chief financial officers about how the Standard & Poors 500-stock index would perform over the next year. The correlation between their estimates and the actual index was less than zero. And, if its hard to predict stocks or the economy, politics is a field perfectly designed to foil precise projections. Politics isnt a game, like poker, with an artificially limited number of possible developments. National elections are rare, so we have ridiculously small sample sizes. Political campaigns dont give pollsters immediate feedback, so they can gradually correct their errors. They have to wait for Election Day for actual results, and only the final poll is verifiable. Most important, stuff happens. Obama turns in a bad debate performance. Romney makes offensive comments at a fund-raiser. These unquantifiable events change the trajectories of tight

EMILY FLAKE

We Need to Talk About Our Eggs

By Sarah Elizabeth Richards

For all the lying, the debates gave us important truths.

atorical bridge from Tripoli to Toledo, Ohio, the debate becoming a contest of how frequently each candidate could beat a path from northern Africa and the Middle East back home. Thus they sparred over education, food stamps, Obamas unbalanced budgets, Romneys unspecific tax plan and even Solyndra. We werent in Libya anymore. In aggregate these presidential debates gave us sublime drama, the first one scrambling the races momentum, the second one flavored with enough disdain to fill a Real Housewives season, and Monday nights reprising that ill will without quite replicating it. Romney wasnt as truculent as hed been, ceding the part of bully to Obama, who took it on too arrogantly at times. His mantra of not true, not true from the prior debate was replaced by all over the map, all over the map, a dismissal of Romneys positions as undependable. These debates did in fact give us truth. I dont mean that the candidates themselves spoke honestly. Hardly. In fact we should pause to note how sad it is that weve come to regard a post-debate factcheck a report card on who told the most and biggest whoppers as an inevitable and unremarkable part of the process. In campaigns these days, dishonesty is both an art form and a given. But the debates revealed each candidate for who he really is: the good, the bad and the binders. Although the two men armed themselves with practiced soliloquies and prefabricated expressions, there was something about the physical proximity of an opponent that scrubbed off even the thickest varnish. We saw Obamas aloofness and distaste for the more superficial aspects of politics. But we also saw his impressive resilience. The debates enabled Romney, at long last, to show Americans his persuasiveness. But he also exhibited his prickliness Candy! Candy! when he doesnt get his way. I not only reveled in all of this but also returned to it, fishing out transcripts and rereading bits, like Obamas lets-measure-our-pensions put-down. On YouTube I revisited the laugh factory that was Joe Biden, who went through all the existing facial expressions for disbelief and derision and then went on to invent another dozen. And in my head I replayed my favorite post-debate analyses: Al Gores wondering if the altitude in Denver had incapacitated Obama; one Republican strategists description of that Obama performance and Bidens subsequent mania as a sleepy cop/crystal meth cop routine. The debates were the mothers of some highly inventive wordplay. They were also a study in moderation, by which I refer to the disparate styles of Jim & Martha & Candy & Bob. Im considering a come-as-your-favorite-moderator Halloween party, and while I thought Bob Schieffer did well Monday night, Im leaning toward a Candy costume myself, in tribute to her moxie. Debate overlords intended to muffle the moderators role in the town-hall format, and asked her to impersonate a potted plant. So she did: a Venus flytrap. Thats horticulture you can believe in.

HEN I recently mentioned to a pregnant acquaintance that I was writing a book about egg freezing (and had frozen my own eggs in hopes of preserving my ability to have children well into my 40s), she replied, Youre so lucky. I wish I had known to freeze my eggs. She was 40 years old and wanted two children, so she and her husband were planning to start trying to conceive a second child shortly after the birth of their first. Now everything is a rush, she said. Married at 38, she didnt think to talk to her obstetrician-gynecologist about fertility before then. If her doctor had brought up the subject, she said, she might have put away some eggs when she was younger. In our fertility-obsessed society, women cant escape the message that its harder to get pregnant after 35. And yet, its not a conversation patients are having with the doctors they talk to about their most intimate issues their OBGYNs unless they bring up the topic first. OB-GYNs routinely ask patients during their annual exams about their sexual histories and need for contraception, but often missing from the list is, Do you plan to have a family? OB-GYNs are divided on whether its their responsibility to broach the topic with patients. Those who take an ask me first approach understandably dont want to offend women who dont want children, or frighten those who do. It doesnt take much for an informational briefing to spiral into a teary heart-toheart about dating woes. Do you reassure a distraught 38-year-old that shes still got time; encourage her to seriously consider having a baby on her own; or freak her out so she settles for a lackluster relationship? And considering that Sarah Elizabeth Richards is the author of the forthcoming book Motherhood, Rescheduled: The New Frontier of Egg Freezing and the Women Who Tried It.

fertility figures are averages (while one woman may need fertility treatment at age 36, another can get pregnant naturally at 42), when is the right age to sound the alarm? But the biggest impediment to bringing the issue up was that doctors didnt have many good recommendations for a single woman: she could either use an anonymous donors sperm to have a baby today, or she could fertilize her eggs with it and freeze the resulting embryos for future use. Now, a better option is gaining credibility. Egg freezing (a technique that allows women to store their unfertilized eggs to use with a future partner when they are older) has been available in the United States since the early 2000s, but success rates at first were low and doctors have been hesitant to push it. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine said

OB-GYNs should mention fertility during annual exams.

the technique shouldnt be offered or marketed as a means to defer reproductive aging, and deemed it experimental. Last week, the doctors society announced that it was removing the experimental label (though it stopped short of endorsing widespread use of egg freezing to put off having children). After reviewing four randomized controlled trials, it found little difference in the effectiveness of using fresh or frozen eggs in in-vitro fertilization, and said that babies conceived from frozen eggs faced no increased risk of birth defects or developmental problems. The procedure isnt a panacea. Its terribly expensive often $10,000 to $15,000 and is not usually covered by insurance. In addition, theres a worrisome lack of data regarding the success rates of eggs frozen by the women at the end of

their baby-making days. The majority of the women in the four studies reviewed by the society were under 35, and it warned against giving women who want to delay childbearing false hope that their frozen eggs will work when they are ready to get pregnant years later. Although estimates of the number of American women who have frozen their eggs for nonmedical reasons are in the thousands, very few have yet returned to thaw them there are only a couple of thousand babies born from frozen eggs in the world. Women should be allowed to come to their own conclusions and take their own risks theres a fine line between doctors mentioning and suggesting the procedure but this is an option they should be hearing about from their OBGYNs. To standardize the message, professional groups like the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists should create pamphlets that doctors can give to patients. OB-GYN residents also can learn suggested scripts that present the information in a nonbiased, nonalarmist way. I first learned about egg freezing from a friend who had talked to her OB-GYN about whether she should freeze, given her familys history of premature menopause. When I asked my doctor about the procedure, she said she had heard that the success rates had recently improved and gave me the name of a respected fertility doctor. As a result, I stashed away several batches of eggs between the ages of 36 and 38 just before the cutoff at which many doctors no longer consider eggs worthwhile to save. I was fortunate, because I knew to ask. We must go one step further and expect OB-GYNs to bring up family planning at every annual visit, so that women have the information they need to choose to take charge of their fertility. Perhaps more women will think about freezing in their early to mid-30s, when their chances of success are greater. Or maybe, after being asked about their plans from their very first visit, more will decide to start families when their eggs are at their prime, and wont even need to freeze.

Political junkie hits bottom.

campaigns. You cant tell whats about to happen. You certainly cant tell how 100 million people are going to process whats about to happen. You cant calculate odds that capture unknown reactions to unknown events. The second thing I know is that if you do have to look at polls, you should do it no more than once every few days, to get a general sense of the state of the race. Ive seen the studies that show that people who check their stocks once a day get lower returns than people who check them once a quarter because they get distracted by noise and make terrible decisions. Ive seen the work on information overload, which makes people depressed, stressed and freezes their brains. I know that checking the polls constantly is a recipe for selfdeception and anxiety. I know all this. But do I obey? Of course not. I check every few hours. Im motivated by the illusion of immanent knowledge. I imagine that somehow the next batch of polling will contain some magic cross-tab about swing voters in Ohio that will satisfy my voracious curiosity and allay this irritable uncertainty. Im also motivated by the thrill of premature celebration. Elections arent just about policy choices. Theyre status competitions. When the polls swing your way, you feel a surge of righteous affirmation. Your views are obviously correct! Your teams virtues are widely recognized! You get to see the humiliation and pain afflicting your foes. When the polls swing the other way, well, who believes the polls anyway? Those idiots are obviously skewing the results. This has been a golden age for confirmation bias. Finally, Im motivated by the power of cognitive laziness. Its hard to figure out how each candidate will handle the so-called budgetary fiscal cliff or the uncertainties involved with Iran. But the polling numbers are like candy. So clear and digestible! Just as the teenage mind naturally migrates from homework to Facebook, just as the normal readers mind naturally wanders from Toynbee to Twitter, so the political junkies brain has a tendency to slide downhill from policy to polling. Look, I went into a profession journalism committed to the mission of describing the present. Imagine how many corrections wed have to publish if we tried to predict the future. Yet, despite all that, every few hours, Im on my laptop, tablet or smartphone sipping Gallup, chugging Rasmussen, gulping Pew, trying to figure out how it will all go down. Come on, David, think through the poll. This is the first day of the rest of your life. Wait a second! The 7-Eleven Coffee Cup Poll is out! Just one more look. Obama is up big!

JOE NOCERA

Where the Candidates Agree

Judging by the first two presidential debates Im writing this on the eve of the third there is one area where Mitt Romney and President Obama are in at least quasi agreement: the need for serious tax reform. I want to bring the rates down; I want to simplify the tax code; and I want to get middle-income taxpayers to have lower taxes, said the Republican challenger during the second debate. He added that he would limit deductions and exemptions and credits, particularly for people at the high end while getting us on track for a balanced budget. In response, President Obama said that he, too, wanted to bring rates down for the middle class. But, he said, in addition to some tough spending cuts, weve also got to make sure that the wealthy do a little bit more. As my old friend Jeffrey Birnbaum pointed out recently, the two men really arent all that far apart. Romney and the president both want to lower the corporate tax rate and get rid of numerous loopholes. (Romney, of course, has yet to say which loopholes he favors eliminating.) Romney would cap deductions and credits which would have the effect of raising taxes on the wealthy, which the Democrats want. The plans differ in detail, Birnbaum wrote in a note to his clients, but they arent unbridgeable. Birnbaum, the president of BGR Public Relations, is a former Washington journalist. As a young reporter for The Wall Street Journal, he co-wrote, with The Journals Alan Murray, a minor classic about government: Showdown at Gucci Gulch, which chronicled the arduous, multiyear effort that led to the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Tax reform real tax reform that rewrites the tax code top to bottom is so rare that it has happened only once in my lifetime. Birnbaum, however, believes that it could happen again. Then, as now, voters were upset about the state of the tax code. Stories about millionaires paying lower rates than their assistants give people the gnawing sense that the system is unfair. Corporations that pay little or no taxes amplify that feeling. Whats more, the need for tax reform is probably more urgent now than it was in the 1980s. Then, the deficit wasnt nearly the problem that it is towhom is an elected official. We had plenty of money sloshing around politics in the 1980s not to mention powerful special interests but it wasnt close to the kind of money that is routinely tossed around today, especially after the Citizens United decision. Members of Congress and senators are more beholden to special interests than they were a quarter-century ago. Most of all, we had a Congress in which Democrats and Republicans, whatever their differences, talked to each other and were willing to cut deals. (Stunningly, one of those deals in 1986 led to the elimination of the capital gains differential, which is almost unimaginable today.) Both Democrats and Republicans got things they wanted and lost things they wanted. Compromise, said Bradley the other day, is the essence of democracy. Today, of course, compromise has become a dirty word. Thats partly because Republicans and Democrats have differing goals: one side wants to use tax reform to shrink the government; the other wants to use it to raise revenue. But it is also because Congress has simply become a nastier, more partisan place than it was in the 1980s. Last year, the lack of trust and communication between the two parties led to debt-ceiling crisis and the collapse of the so-called Grand Bargain. Why should anybody think it will be any different next year? Right around the corner lies the fiscal cliff. It offers Congress and the president a golden opportunity to begin a process that will lead to tax reform and, ultimately, deficit reduction. Birnbaum likes to point out that back in the 1980s, nobody really believed tax reform could ever happen. Miraculously, after many fits and starts, it did. One can only hope that lightning can strike twice.

Obama and Romney both want tax reform. So why wont it happen?
day. Now, tax reform is just about the only politically palatable way for Congress to begin the process of lowering the deficit. Lowering tax rates will give Congress and the president whomever he turns out to be cover for broadening the tax base, reforming entitlement spending and raising additional revenue. Yet what struck me as I reread Showdown at Gucci Gulch recently is not the similarities between then and now, but the differences. For starters, we had, in Ronald Reagan, a president deeply committed to lowering tax rates because during his days as an actor, the marginal tax rate was 90 percent. We had a senator, in Bill Bradley, who was obsessed with creating a fairer tax system and wouldnt let go of the issue. Today, that role is played by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles neither of

A24

THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONAL TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS

Vials of a steroid made by the New England Compounding Center, linked to meningitis cases.

U.S. Was Concerned Before Outbreak

From Page A1 ity of compounded drugs and the uncertain provenance of their ingredients, some of which originate in China and flow through various repackagers and middlemen with little scrutiny, according to interviews with health experts and government records. Drugs made by compounders who mix or alter ingredients to create customized medicine for a specific patient are rarely tested, unless someone is harmed or a complaint is filed. But in the only two states that randomly test compounded drugs, Texas and Missouri, significant problems have surfaced. In Texas, a hub of compounding pharmacies, random tests by the states pharmacy board over the last several years found that as many as one in four compounded drugs was either too weak or too strong. The testing results are just slightly better in Missouri. Potency varied by as much as 300 percent in the Missouri tests. And records of F.D.A. drug seizures at United States borders, as well as several criminal cases, point to a link between drug compounders and Chinese manufacturers, some not registered with the F.D.A. Records analyzed by The New York Times show that in 62 cases over the last decade, the F.D.A. blocked the importation of drugs for use in compounding; nearly half were from China, one of the largest producers of raw pharmaceutical ingredients, where many manufacturers operate outside the regulatory net. The F.D.A. said on Friday that investigators did not believe that original ingredients used by the Massachusetts pharmacy, the New England Compounding Center in Framingham, were the source of the crisis unfolding in 16 states, where at least 297 people have contracted meningitis and 23 have died. Beyond the Massachusetts case, though, United States authorities have expressed concern that compounders, far less stringently regulated than commercial drug makers, have been using ingredients manufactured overseas in factories not approved by the F.D.A. Last year, the F.D.A. issued an import warning after noticing that a large increase in unapproved human growth hormone, manufactured overseas, was being offered to compounding pharmacies. In March, an upstate New York company, Medisca, which sells ingredients to compounders, forfeited $1.7 million from the unlawful sale of human growth hormone supplied by an unapproved Chinese drug maker. Two other compounding pharmacies were also found in recent years to have illegally sold anabolic steroids and human growth hormone made in China. As companies increasingly buy raw materials from foreign sources about 80 percent of active pharmaceutical ingredients in products sold in the United States are from overseas regulators are struggling to keep up. Modern supply chains are a maze of importers, repackagers and dealers. But while large drug companies, bound by F.D.A. rules, must keep meticulous track of who has handled their raw materials, compounding pharmacies are not bound by those guidelines, even though some have grown so large that they resemble commercial manufacturers. Michael Chappell, a former high-ranking F.D.A. official who helped to oversee the agencys regulatory policies, said federal officials have had difficulty at times getting answers to questions about where compounders bought their ingredients. Is it being repackaged in the back of a 57 Buick in a parking lot somewhere? Mr. Chappell asked. The answer was always, We get them from our suppliers. Sarah Cohen contributed reporting.

HARRISON MCCLARY/REUTERS

A sample of one of the fungi species diagnosed in the outbreak.

But what do you know about that supplier? Who makes the original chemical? Some compounding pharmacies have taken advantage of the legal no-mans land in regulation. The F.D.A. can inspect them and issue warnings, but the agency says states have ultimate jurisdiction. You can ask a question, but does a company have to answer you? said Robert Coleman, who was an F.D.A. investigator for three decades and is now a consultant based in Atlanta. Thats up for debate. It always made me wonder as an investigator, Why dont you want to tell me that? Is there some problem? The F.D.A. has authority if it decides that a compounding pharmacy is manufacturing, and not simply mixing drugs for individual patients. But to make that determination, the agency has to look at a pharmacys records to see its volume, and pharmacies argue that the law does not require them to produce those records. There is some legal dispute about our ability to look at records and pharmacies and it is the records that help us deterhovered between 20 percent and 25 percent. If you take a drug, you should expect to get the amount of drug listed on the bottle, said Gay Dodson, the boards executive director. In April, a compounding pharmacy in Dallas, ApotheCure Inc., and its owner, pleaded guilty in federal court to two misdemeanors for shipping a misbranded drug that led to the deaths of three people in the Pacific Northwest. Subsequent testing by the F.D.A. found that some vials were superpotent, containing 640 percent of the drug listed on the label, while others were subpotent. K V Pharmaceuticals, a drug company in St. Louis, did not rely on the government to assess the quality of compounded drugs that competed with its F.D.A.approved product, Makena, used to reduce the risk of premature birth. K V hired a corporate intelligence firm to obtain and test samples of the compounded version, 17P, for potency and purity. In January, the companys researchers published their findings, alleging that 80 percent of the drug did not meet purity specifications. Michael J. Jozwiakowski, a co-author of the study, said the only companies they could find that manufactured the active pharmaceutical ingredient, available to compounders, were Chinese companies not registered with the F.D.A. One sample contained nothing but glucose. When the F.D.A. was given the data last fall, the agency decided to take its own samples of the compounded version, prompting the International Academy of Compounding Pharmacists, the trade organization, to offer its members advice on how to respond to F.D.A. requests, in an e-mailed member alert titled, F.D.A. Calling Compounders about 17-P. The trade group spokesman, David Miller, said the alert, despite its title, was intended to defend against data collectors from K V Pharmaceuticals, who member pharmacies said had been calling them asking for samples. There was no evidence that any of the calls pharmacies received were coming from a genuine governmental official, Mr. Miller said. Regulators do not call around asking for information. They come to a pharmacy with an official inspection form. He denied that the alert contained language instructing members not to cooperate with federal regulators. There is not one word in that document that says do not comply with a regulator, he said. Dr. Michael Carome, deputy director of Public Citizens Health Research Group, a nonprofit consumer organization, said the groups advice to members should have been to cooperate fully and answer all their questions. Instead, Dr. Carome said, the group suggested answers for which the implicit, if not explicit message was to stonewall and obstruct the F.D.A.s attempt to assess the quality of the compounded drug. The F.D.A. said in June that after obtaining and testing 13 samples of the compounded drug, it had found no significant quality problems. K V Pharmaceuticals filed for bankruptcy this year, and is suing the F.D.A.

Requests came after suspicions of an inferior medicine.

mine whether a pharmacy is acting as a pharmacy or as a manufacturer, Deborah M. Autor, the F.D.A.s deputy commissioner for global regulatory operations and policy, said in a phone call with journalists. Some consumer advocates say that the F.D.A. has the authority to investigate compounding pharmacies but often chooses not to. Unlike commercial drug manufacturers, compounding pharmacies are not bound by the agencys so-called good manufacturing practices, which require companies to report instances when their medicine might have harmed patients. Usually the F.D.A. learns about such cases only through the news media or voluntary reporting. There have been virtually no federal efforts to quantify the problem of large-scale compounding pharmacies or their rapid growth, but the F.D.A. has occasionally taken a limited look at the quality of their drugs. In 2001, the agency looked at samples of compounded products from 12 different pharmacies and found that a third of the products failed one or more standard quality tests, mostly having to do with potency. A similar F.D.A. survey in 2006 found the failure rate about the same. After a pharmacist in Kansas City, Mo., pleaded guilty to watering down chemotherapy drugs, the Missouri Board of Pharmacy began in 2006 randomly sampling compounded drugs. In 2008, one in four samples failed a potency test. The failure rate dropped to 15 percent in 2010, the most recent year available. The Texas State Board of Pharmacy started its own random testing program after seeing what Missouri had done. That states failure rate has generally

S.& P. 500 1,433.82 Dow industrials 13,345.89 Nasdaq composite 3,016.96 10-yr. Treasury yield 1.82% The euro $1.3054

U U U U U

0.63 2.38 11.34 0.05 0.0035

Itineraries

Trains or Planes?
More travelers in Canada and Europe are choosing a combination of both. 9

Microsoft tightens its rules on using personal information.

SportsTuesday
2
Page B13-18

BP will switch its Russian partners through a deal with Rosneft. 4

7 Tour Titles Taken

Lance Armstrongs case will not be appealed. 13

B1

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Casting Dual Roles, At Treasury And the Fed

For the last couple of months, there has been a parlor game on Wall Street and in Washington about who will become the next Treasury secretary. After all, Timothy F. Geithner has made it clear he plans to be out of that office at the end of the year whether DEALBOOK President Obama is re-elected or not. But there is another wrinkle in the parlor game calculus: Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, is likely to need a successor, too. If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, he has already pledged he will replace Mr. Bernanke, whose term as chairman ends in January 2014, in just over 15 months. However, Mr. Bernanke has told close friends that even if Mr. Obama wins, he probably will not stand for re-election. That would be a one-two punch, with two of the most important jobs in the nation up for grabs. And over the last couple of years, especially at the depth of the financial crisis, the relationship between the two people in those roles has been increasingly important. They are the equivalent of roles in a buddy movie. Lots of names are regularly bandied about for both positions. But they are not always thought about in tandem. So here is a field guide to handicapping the next Continued on Page 10

On Feds Horizon, Nov. 6 Looms Large

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

WASHINGTON The next significant event for monetary policy is not the Federal Reserves meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, which is likely to pass quietly, but the presidential election two weeks later. Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, has said that he opposes the Feds efforts to stimulate the economy as ineffective and inflationary. And as president, he has promised to appoint a new Fed chairman. The term of the current chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, runs through early 2014. But the impact could be immediate as investors revise their assumptions about the future. I certainly would expect the markets to respond, that they will take this as the Fed being more hawkish and that will be reflected in rates, said Laurence H. Meyer, senior adviser at Macroeconomic Advisers and

F.D.A. Is Told of Deaths After Using Energy Drink

By BARRY MEIER

ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES

Ben Bernankes term as Fed chairman does not end till 2014.
a former Fed governor. Such a reversal would be welcomed by critics who argue that the Feds efforts are undermining economic stability, and mourned by supporters who say more must be done to revive economic growth. But Mr. Meyer and others cautioned that the impact would not be fully felt until it becomes clear whom Mr. Continued on Page 10

Five people may have died over the past three years after drinking Monster Energy, a popular energy drink that is high in caffeine, according to incident reports recently released by the Food and Drug Administration. The reports, like similar filings with the F.D.A. in cases involving drugs or medical devices, do not prove a link between Monster Energy and the deaths or other health problems. The records were recently obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by the mother of a 14-year-old Maryland girl who died in December from a heart arrhythmia after drinking large cans of Monster Energy on two consecutive days. Last week, Wendy Crossland, the mother of that teenager,

filed a lawsuit against Monster Beverage, a publicly traded company in Corona, Calif., that used to be known as Hansen Natural. The lawsuit charges that Monster failed to warn about the risks of its energy drinks; a spokeswoman for the company said last week that its products were safe and not the cause of the teenagers death. That spokeswoman, Judy Lin Sfetcu, added that Monster was unaware of any fatality anywhere that has been caused by its drinks. Monster Beverages stock ended down Monday more than 14 percent, sliding sharply after The New York Times reported about the F.D.A. filings. In an interview, an F.D.A. spokeswoman, Shelly Burgess, said the agency had received reContinued on Page 8

Wisconsin Nuclear Reactor To Be Closed

By MATTHEW L. WALD

In Report, Speed Trades Problems And Pluses

By NATHANIEL POPPER

The rise of controversial highspeed trading firms has generally been a good thing for ordinary investors, a two-year British government study has concluded. The study, however, found that the increasing prevalence of computerized trading may lead to isolated incidents of instability in the financial markets. The report released Monday night is the product of the most comprehensive effort to date to understand the computerized trading firms that have come to dominate the financial markets and generate anxiety among regulators and investors. The committee that oversaw the study largely rejected some of the most troubling accusations that have been made about the firms that practice high speed trading, or H.F.T., including charges that they have caused greater volatility in markets and manipulated stock prices. Some of the concerns about the problems of H.F.T. are misconceived, said John Beddington, the British governments chief scientific adviser, and the head of the government body that ran the project, the Foresight Programme. But the committee concluded that regulators had failed to gather enough data or build the expertise needed to allay a widespread assumption among professional investors that faster Continued on Page 4

ERIC SCHULTZ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Joel Denbo, chief executive of Tennessee Valley Recycling, is trying to avoid layoffs among his work force of 175 people.

Dwindling Demand
Chinas Slowing Economy Puts Pressure on American Exporters
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

As Chinas economy cools, American exporters are increasingly feeling the chill. Cummins, the big Indiana engine maker, lowered its revenue forecast earlier this month and said it would eliminate 1,000 to 1,500 jobs by the end of the year, citing weak demand from China as a major reason. Schnitzer Steel Industries, a Portland, Ore., company that is one of the nations biggest metal recyclers, is cutting 300 jobs, or 7 percent of its work force, as scrap exports to China plunge. And on Monday, Caterpillar reported lower sales in China and cut its global outlook for 2012. Job reductions are hitting industries like mining, heavy machinery and scrap metal that prospered as China boomed, illustrating some of the risks to the broader American economy if growth continues to slow in what is now the worlds second-largest economy. Last week the Chinese government an-

nounced that gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in more than three years. Even as the presidential candidates try to outdo each other in promising to get tough on Chinese exports to protect American jobs, experts say the more immediate threat to American workers may actually be the slowing of sales to China, which has bid up the price of much of what the United States sent overseas in recent years. In fact, in the presidential debate on Monday evening, President Obama noted that exports to China had doubled during his term, even as both he and Mitt Romney again vowed to crack down on Chinese trade abuses. Over all, Chinas growth is expected to decelerate to 7.7 percent this year from last years breakneck 9.3 percent pace, adding to fears of a global slowdown, especially with much of Europe in recession and the economic recovery in the

United States stubbornly anemic. Already, softening demand has clipped American exports. Theres definitely been an effect from slowing exports to China on U.S. exports, said Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays. According to his analysis, the drop in exports to China alone is responsible for shaving 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off the growth rate for the American economy, which expanded at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter. The recent slowdown in export growth has probably contributed to the loss of 38,000 jobs in the American manufacturing sector since July, while the overall job market has improved and unemployment has fallen. The decline has been striking because exports, along with manufacturing, have been relative bright spots since the recessions end. Wall Street will be looking for further signals about Chinese demand Tuesday, Continued on Page 11

WASHINGTON The owner of a small nuclear reactor in Wisconsin said Monday that it would close the Kewaunee Power Station early next year because it was unable to find a buyer and the plant was no longer economically viable. The decision was viewed as an early sign that the wave of retirements of old generating stations across the Midwest is now stretching from the coal industry into nuclear power, driven by slack demand for energy and the low price of natural gas. After receiving a 20-year extension from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in February 2011 to continue operating Kewaunee, Dominion, based in Richmond, Va., put the power station up for sale. At 556 megawatts, it is about half the size of the largest plants now operating and is the only reactor at the Carlton site, rendering costs higher per unit of power than sites with two reactors. Dominion had hoped to buy several reactors in the Midwest that could share some overhead expenses with Kewaunee, but did not succeed. This was an extremely difficult decision, especially in light of how well the station is running and the dedication of the employees, said Thomas F. Farrell II, Dominions chairman, president and chief executive, in a statement. This decision was based purely on economics. He said nuclear power would be essential to the nations energy future just in other places. The company owns six other reactors at three sites, and will take a one-time charge of $281 million for the closure, which it expects in the spring. The industrys trade association, the Nuclear Energy Institute, tried to play down the significance of the Kewaunee closing, saying it was because of circumstances unique to Dominion. Marvin Fertel, the president and chief executive of the association, said that nuclear energy remains a reliable, cost-effective Continued on Page 4

B2

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

An Amazon Shutdown Affects Some Web Sites

By NICOLE PERLROTH and JENNA WORTHAM

Some services at Amazon.coms data centers failed Monday afternoon, taking with them a number of popular Web sites and services, including Flipboard and Foursquare. Amazon reported problems at data centers in Northern Virginia that appeared to have had a ripple effect across the Internet, as many companies depend on the companys cloud service to run their businesses. Several frustrated customers took to Twitter to complain. In June, an electrical storm caused problems at the same Northern Virginia data centers and took down sites including Netflix, Pinterest and Instagram for a weekend. The companies that were affected by the latest shutdown scrambled to respond. Like many other services, weve been taken down by the outage, said Erin Gleason, a spokeswoman for Foursquare, the mobile check-in service.

Both the site and the app are inaccessible right now. Ms. Gleason said the company was awaiting information from Amazon about when its service might be restored. Another start-up, Airbnb, tried to reassure its members via Twitter. Apologies. Our site is having a case of the Mondays, the company posted. Tera Randall, a representative for Amazon, said in an e-mail that the problems involved one zone of the companys service and were affecting a portion of customers in that zone. She declined to elaborate on when service might be restored or what percentage of the companys overall cloud computing business was involved. By late evening, at least one service that suffered as a result of the shutdown, Pinterest, showed signs of coming back to life. The site issues we were experiencing should be resolved and you can pin to your hearts content again, the company wrote on Twitter.

STEPHEN LAM/REUTERS

Marissa Mayer, the chief executive of Yahoo who started in July. Earnings for the search engine rose, but its revenue was stagnant.

ON THE WEB
Articles on these developments are at nytimes.com/businessday.
WOMEN ON BOARDS A proposal to require company boards to be made

Earnings Report Gives Yahoos New Chief a Good Start

By NICOLE PERLROTH

up of at least 40 percent women is set to face a big test Tuesday when JAMES KANTER it comes before the European Commission.

PERSONAL FINANCE
HOME OWNERSHIP A median-in-

iPhones from BlackBerrys, citing a need for more capable and dynamic mobile technology.
IAN AUSTEN

come household can afford a median-priced home in just 14 of the 25 largest metropolitan areas, a new study finds. ANN CARRNS nytimes.com/bucks

nytimes.com/bits

ECONOMICS
BANK FEES With banks raising

TECHNOLOGY
FALSE ALARM A popular security

blogger sent out an alert that the entire Web might be under attack. It turned out to be the digital version of a fire drill.
NICOLE PERLROTH

fees, credit unions offer a friendlier alternative, an economist writes. NANCY FOLBRE nytimes.com/economix
WAGE STAGNATION The elusive-

nytimes.com/bits
BLACKBERRY DEFECTION The De-

ness of wage growth reflects a failure to invest in the skills and productivity of the American work force, two economists write.
MICHAEL GREENSTONE and ADAM LOONEY

partment of Homeland Security will switch 17,676 employees to

nytimes.com/economix

SAN FRANCISCO Given the scope and complexity of Yahoos problems, Marissa Mayers first quarter as chief executive was not a bad start. But it was only a start. Yahoo reported stronger earnings than a year earlier, but future growth remained uncertain. We have a fundamental foundation on which to grow, Ms. Mayer said in a conference call with analysts. We believe Yahoos best days lie ahead. We intend to win. Largely because of a longawaited sale of its stake in Alibaba last month, Yahoo reported Monday that net income in the third quarter, which ended Sept. 30, rose sharply to $3.16 billion, or $2.64 a share, from $293 million, or 23 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago. That included a net gain of $2.8 billion related to the Alibaba sale and restructuring charges of $16 million, the company said.

That news sent Yahoos shares up 4 percent in after-hours trading, but some analysts were less sanguine. Earnings were decent hooray! the wheels didnt come off the bus, said Colin Gillis, an Internet analyst with BCG Partners. But there are still some serious issues facing her. Those problems start with the companys stagnant revenue, which was $1.2 billion in the quarter. Its income from operations decreased 14 percent, to $152 million from $177 million in the year earlier period. With 700 million users each month, Yahoo remains one of the most visited sites on the Web, but it has been ceding its share of the online display ad market to rivals like Facebook and Google. Its search business, which Yahoo outsourced to Microsoft in 2009, is on its last legs, propped up only because of a revenueguarantee clause in its contract with Microsoft. In the call with analysts, Ms.

Mayer acknowledged that Yahoos search deal with Microsoft had been disappointing. Weve experienced some disappointment on the monetization, which is why the revenue guarantee is in place, she said. Yahoos revenue guarantee expires in March. Without the guarantee, Yahoos

Net income rose sharply after the sale of its stake in Alibaba.
revenue could fall next year by $100 million. Ms. Mayer, who joined the company in July after 13 years at Google, said Yahoos top priority was to make the worlds daily habits inspiring and entertaining. She said Yahoo would renew its focus on its search business, modernize its home page, mail and messenger services, de-

velop a mobile presence and seek out double-digit million-dollar acquisitions. She said the company was very well-positioned to capitalize on the shift of consumers to mobile devices. Noting that the most frequent use of smartphones was checking weather, sports scores, financial information, watching videos, sharing photos, getting news and playing games, she asked, Does that sound like any particular company that you know? To lure engineers to the company and to improve employee morale, one of the first things Ms. Mayer did was offer free cafeteria food and give employees the option to trade in their BlackBerry phones for iPhones and Android-powered smartphones. Cultural change cant be bought and the vast majority of what weve done has cost nothing, Ms. Mayer said of those moves. Im already impressed in the change in our applicant pool.

Microsoft Tightens Personal Data Rules

By EDWARD WYATT

Microsoft said on Monday that it would change its new disclosure policy to tell consumers explicitly that it would not use personal information it collects from users of some Microsoft products to produce or promote targeted online advertising. The action followed a letter by Representative Edward J. Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who is co-chairman of the Congressional Bipartisan Privacy Caucus, to Steven A. Ballmer, Microsofts chief executive, expressing concern about the policy, which went into effect on Friday. In raising questions about Microsofts new policy, Mr. Markey cited an Oct. 20 article in The New York Times, which reported that the new Microsoft Services Agreement gave the company broad leeway to collect and use personal information gleaned from consumers of its free, Webbased products like e-mail, search and instant messaging. The policy allowed Microsoft to use the personal data in targeted advertising, although Microsoft pledged in its blog posts and

e-mails to customers that it would not do so. The products affected by the Service Agreement include the companys Webbased Hotmail and Outlook.com e-mail services, but not the Outlook program that is bought and loaded directly onto a personal computers hard drive. Microsoft said it wanted to make its intentions clear in light of the Times article and the letter from Mr. Markey. One thing we dont do is use the content of our customers private communications and documents to target advertising, Microsoft said in a statement released on Monday afternoon. We could have been clearer about this when we rolled out our updated Services Agreement, the statement said. We appreciate the feedback weve received, and as a result, we will update the agreement as soon as possible to make that point absolutely clear. The Times article reported that privacy advocates were concerned about the new policy, given that no single authority regulates the data-collection practices of Internet companies. The Microsoft policy appeared

to give the company the same rights as Google, which scans the content of e-mails sent through its Gmail system, focusing on keywords to generate advertising that it thinks will interest the user. Google attracted widespread criticism when it revised its privacy policy to allow it to share that information across its product lines. In his letter to Microsoft, Mr. Markey said he was concerned about the privacy and security implications of Microsofts policy of aggregating information about consumers across a suite of Microsoft services, stitching together detailed, in-depth consumer profiles. He urged Microsoft to consider an opt-in standard that would allow the collection of personal information from users who specifically indicated that they wanted the company to collect that information. Microsofts policy did not apply its Internet Explorer Web browser. But it has said that just such an opt-in standard, known as a do not track option, will be the default setting on the coming release of Internet Explorer 10, the latest version of the browser.

Texas Instruments Expects Sales Temporary To Slow as Weakness Continues Employees Sue Wal-Mart
By Reuters

Texas Instruments reported Monday that its quarterly revenue fell 2.3 percent as demand for its chips slipped on economic concerns, and the company forecast more weakness this quarter. The chip maker has been under pressure from a weak global economy and a wavering personal computer industry and is struggling to fill manufacturing capacity it bought for pennies on the dollar after the global credit crisis. Across the board, were seeing customers being extremely cautious, very careful about the level of inventory that they hold so giving us very low levels of visibility as to what theyll want to order for the quarter, Texas Instruments chief financial officer, Kevin March, said in an interview. Texas Instruments, which makes chips used in products ranging from consumer electronics to industrial equipment, reported a profit of $784 million, or 67 cents a share, up 30.4 percent from $601 million, or 51 cents a

share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue declined to $3.39 billion from $3.47 billion in the yearearlier quarter. The company forecast fourthquarter earnings of 23 cents to 31 cents a share on revenue of $2.83 billion to $3.07 billion. Analysts on average had been expecting Texas Instruments revenue in the current quarter to be $3.24 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. Its definitely light, said Stacy Rasgon, an analyst at Bernstein Research. But I dont know how surprising that is given what weve seen in semiconductors and tech recently. The companys inability to fully use its fabrication plants has investors worried about its profitability. With the macroeconomic slowdown were experiencing, and T.I.s excess capacity theyre only using about 75 percent of their capacity right now theyre going to be under some longer-term pressure to try to fill those fabs, said JoAnne Feeney, an analyst at Longbow Research.

By Reuters

A lawsuit filed Monday accuses Wal-Mart Stores and two staffing agencies of requiring temporary employees to show up early for work, stay late and work through lunch at the worlds largest retailer. The proposed class action, filed in a Chicago federal court, claimed that Wal-Mart and the agencies violated minimum wage and overtime laws, potentially affecting several hundred temporary workers in the Chicago area. Wal-Mart declined to comment immediately, saying it first needed to review the lawsuit. Wal-Mart has faced protests in various American cities lately, and some workers said they planned to walk off the job on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Such actions are being sponsored by groups including a contingent of workers called OUR Walmart that is calling attention to what it says are tough working conditions.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

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THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

BP Will Switch Russian Partners Through a Deal With Rosneft

By ANDREW E. KRAMER and STANLEY REED

MOSCOW After years of feuding with its longtime Russian partners, the British oil giant BP has formally filed for divorce and announced plans to move in with someone wealthier and more powerful: the Russian state oil company Rosneft. On Monday, BP said it had agreed to sell most of its business in Russia to Rosneft as part of a complex package of deals worth a total of $55 billion. The transactions would leave BP with a stake of nearly 20 percent in Rosneft and about $12.3 billion in cash, allowing the company to pursue drilling opportunities in the Russian Arctic and settle billions of dollars in penalties to be imposed by the United States government over the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill. With the Rosneft deal, BPs chief executive, Robert W. Dudley, seems finally to have succeeded in the companys multiyear strategy of shifting partners in Russia. Twice before, in 2007 and 2011, BP tried to join a partnership with a state company, first Gazprom and then Rosneft. Each time, the move provoked a fearsome effort by the companys billionaire Russian business partners to block the deals, which included the sort of offshore and frontier opportunities BP prefers. BP for many years was trying to have two Russian wives, said Cliff Kupchan, a researcher with Eurasia Group, a risk analysis company. That led to competing interests. What BP has done now is cleanly choose one Russian partner. That is a step forward. Under the terms of the deal, BP would receive $17.1 billion in cash and shares representing 12.8 percent of Rosneft for its half of TNK-BP, its longtime drilling venture with several Russian oligarchs. However, the agreement calls for BP to use $4.8 billion of the proceeds to buy another 5.7 percent of Rosneft from the Russian government. The series of transactions would give BP a 19.75 percent stake in a company that would remain majority owned and closely controlled by the Kremlin. BP said it expected to have two seats on Rosnefts nine-member board. Rosneft also confirmed that it had reached an agreement to buy the other half of TNK-BP for $28 billion in cash from A.A.R., the consortium formed by the Russian oligarchs to manage their half of the venture. Andrew E. Kramer reported from Moscow and Stanley Reed from London.

Chinas Bid For Nexen May Survive A Rejection

By IAN AUSTEN

POOL PHOTO BY ALEXEY NIKOLSKY

At a Monday meeting outside Moscow, Igor I. Sechin, right, Rosnefts chief, informed President Vladimir V. Putin of the BP deal.
The purchases would vault Rosneft ahead of Exxon Mobil as the largest publicly traded oil company, as measured by the size of its reserves and its daily output, according to a slide that BP proudly showed investors. Bank of America Merrill tionship with the Russian state company will be a better route to the deals it wants to drill offshore in the Arctic Ocean. Exxon Mobil, Eni of Italy and Statoil of Norway already have such deals. The British company was careful to portray the proposed transaction as a continuation of its efforts in Russia rather than a retreat. This investment builds on BPs track record of value creation in Russia, Mr. Dudley said in a statement. BP intends to be a long-term investor in Rosneft an investment which I believe will deliver value for our shareholders for the next decade and beyond. Although the TNK-BP joint venture has been marred by infighting between BP and its Russian partners, its operations have been enormously profitable, earning $19 billion in dividends for BP since 2003 as the company helped improve operations through shared technology and management skills. Stuart Joyner, an analyst with Investec in London, said the sale of TNK-BP was exactly in line with fair value. The American shares of BP fell about 1 percent in trading on Monday after rising last week on word that a deal was imminent. On the face of it, the Rosneft deal means that BP will be cutting back its investment in Russia. But the company is hoping to use the new strategic link with the Kremlin through Rosneft to secure other business in the country. Also, BP might even come out owning more oil on paper at least even with the smaller investment in Russia. If Rosneft buys out both partners in TNK-BP as expected, BPs proven reserves in Russia will rise from 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion barrels, even as it extracts cash. That is because accounting rules will allow BP to count nearly 20 percent of Rosnefts reserves as its own, and that amount will be larger than the 50 percent of TNK-BPs reserves that BP can count now. BP has long been committed to Russia, which has one of the worlds largest reserves of oil, and the company is thickly staffed with Russia experts. Among them is Mr. Dudley, a Mississippian of the generation of oilmen who cracked the formula for doing business in the former Soviet Union. Mr. Dudley managed TNK-BP for five years. Mr. Dudleys implicit assessment that President Vladimir V. Putin would prevail and thrive in Russia for perhaps decades guided BP policy as far back as 2007. The company sought to replace the oligarchs of the 1990s, with whom the original TNK-BP deal was struck, with the ascendant group of former K.G.B. and military intelligence officers close to Mr. Putin who were showing an interest in the oil business. With Mondays deal, Mr. Dudley accomplished that goal. The deal with Rosneft follows other recent sales by BP, which has sold assets in countries from Venezuela to Vietnam. It announced this month that it had agreed to sell its refinery in Texas City, Tex., for $2.5 billion to Marathon Petroleum. TNK-BP is the third-largest Russian oil company, after Rosneft and Lukoil. If Rosneft buys out both BP and the handful of Russian billionaires who control the other half of TNK-BP, Rosneft will become the worlds largest publicly traded oil company in terms of oil produced, about 4.5 million barrels a day. Morgan Stanley is BPs principal financial adviser on the Rosneft deal. UBS is acting as financial adviser and corporate broker to BP. Goldman Sachs, Lambert Energy Advisory Ltd. and Renaissance Capital have also acted as financial advisers.

A Russian oil giant is poised to vault past Exxon Mobil.

Lynch, an adviser to Rosneft, estimated the combined value of the deals at $55 billion. They would be financed from Rosneft and TNK-BP cash flows and borrowing. BPs Russian maneuver was the largest to date in Mr. Dudleys shrink to grow strategy, put in place after the costly 2010 gulf spill. The effort has entailed selling rundown, old oil fields around the world, including the rusty expanses of pipe and nodding donkey pumps it owns in Russia, and concentrating on exploration and new frontiers, seen as BPs strength. BP is now betting that a rela-

OTTAWA The rejection of a major energy industry takeover by Canadian government may not indicate that it is adopting a harder line on mergers involving foreign companies. On Friday, Canada used foreign investment laws to reject a $5.17 billion takeover of Progress Energy Resources by Petronas, the Malaysian state-owned energy company. That decision led to speculation on the outcome of a $15 billion bid for Nexen, another Canadian energy company, by China National Offshore Oil Corporation, the Chinese state-run oil producer known as Cnooc (pronounced SEE-nook). The Progress deal was the third foreign takeover turned down by the current Conservative government using a law that previously was mainly known for rubber-stamping acquisitions. All three rejections the others involved a potash mining company and an aerospace company were unexpected given the antiregulation bent of the government and Stephen Harper, the prime minister. The review system was introduced by a Conservative government in 1985 to replace a stronger law introduced in a wave of nationalism in the 1970s. Instead of requiring specific commitments in areas like jobs, technology and Canadian management, the law requires only that a takeover provide a net benefit for Canada. But net benefit is not clearly defined in the law. Instead, it is defined on a case-by-case basis, with the prime minister as the final judge. Calls from investors

Canadas response to other deals appears to have no bearing.

and businesses recently led the Conservatives to start developing clearer guidelines, which it will make public. That process may also have led to the rejection of the Progress deal. Although Canadas foreign investment review process is secretive and political, it appears that impatience by Petronas, rather than the merits of its bid, led to the rejection on Friday. And that rejection is not the last word in this case. The Globe and Mail and The National Post, citing unnamed sources, reported said that the government initially promised Petronas a decision by last Friday. But, according to the newspaper reports, the government asked Petronas last week if it could delay its decision until December so that it would follow the release of its new, broad foreign takeover guidelines. Petronas, the reports said, was already frustrated by the process and any further delay would complicate deadlines under its agreement with Progress. So it turned down the governments extension request. The rejection followed. After the deal was rejected, however, the government indicated that the process was not over. And on Monday, Petronas and Progress said in a statement that they would continue to work with the government to try to get their deal approved. Politics aside, the Nexen deal with Cnooc faces different hurdles than the Petronas offer. Although Nexens assets are mainly outside Canada, it is a significant investor in Albertas oil sands. It owns 65 percent of one sands project, with Cnooc as its minority partner, and has stakes in two other oil sands projects. Some have expressed concern about a Chinese state-owned company gaining control of Nexens Canadian assets, which include natural gas and shale gas properties. Although Mr. Harper, the prime minister, does not usually tolerate criticism from within his party, some Conservative members of Parliament are among opponents of the Nexen deal. Rob Anders, a Conservative legislator who wants conditions placed on Cnooc, described China last month as being a nonbenevolent actor and a strategic adversary. But under Mr. Harper, and some predecessors, individual members of Parliament, even from his party, hold little sway. Since American politics stalled plans to deliver more oil sands production to the United States through the Keystone XL pipeline, Mr. Harper has focused on China as Canadas next great energy market and courted Chinese fuel investment. That, analysts say, is likely to guide his thinking on Cnooc and Nexen more than what happens with Petronas.

A Wisconsin Reactor Is to Be Closed as the Energy Landscape Shifts

From First Business Page producer of electricity for Americas homes and our economy. This did not explain, however, why no better-situated company came forward to buy the plant. When Dominion bought the plant from local owners in 2005, it signed contracts to sell them the electricity, a common practice, but as those contracts expire, the plant faces selling electricity at the lower rates that now dominate the energy market. Bruce Biewald, the founder and chief executive of Synapse Energy Economics, a consulting firm, said that low electricity prices were a severe problem for generators in places like the Midwest, where power is sold at auction. Youre looking at margins that are declining in a really serious way, he said. Counting Kewaunee, there are 104 power reactors licensed in the United States. Kewaunee, which received its 40-year operating license in December 1973, will be the first reactor to retire since Millstone 1, near New London, Conn., in July 1998. Annual capital costs on a 1,000 megawatt nuclear reactor range from $60 million to $70 million, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute; average annual costs for operation and maintenance plus fuel are $140 million to $150 million. And when the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is finished ordering improvements prompted by the Fukushima disaster of last year, some plants will face significant expenses. Perhaps more could decide that continuing to operate was not worth the investment given current revenues. In some regions, the average selling price of a megawatt-hour today is less than $50 at times. But a survey of the industry by the Electric Utility Cost Group, an industry consortium, found that one quarter of nuclear plants with the highest costs were spending an average of $51.42 to

Closing of old plants may be spreading from coal to nuclear.

produce a megawatt-hour from 2008 through 2010. And costs have gone up since then. Other companies have also reported falling revenues, although they may not be on the verge of closing reactors because they are in regions where the market price of electricity is higher. Nearly all the operating reactors are approaching or have reached

the end of their initial license periods, and have applied for extensions or received them. But the license may not indicate the lifetime of the reactor. No nuclear plant I know of has ever closed because it hit the end of its license, said Peter Bradford, who served on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission from 1977 to 1982 and was later chairman of the New York State Public Service Commission. A nuclear plant needs a life expectancy of a few years for its owners to consider major new investments, he said in a telephone interview, but if low electricity prices persist, even that may not be enough.

Report Analyzes the Problems and Pluses of High Frequency Trading

From First Business Page traders have an advantage and profit at the expense of ordinary investors. The committees findings are likely to become a touchstone in global debates about how to deal with the fast rise of high-speed trading firms. While the companies have become entrenched in the American stock markets now accounting for just over half of all trading they are just beginning to rise to prominence in many foreign markets, including European stock exchanges. Regulators and academics around the world have struggled to keep up with rapid development of the industry a problem that the British Government Office for Science was hoping to alleviate with its inquiry. Over the last two years, the office has commissioned about 50 independent studies from more than 100 academics and industry experts from 20 different countries. The report out Monday is a synthesis of those findings. The committees conclusions are consistent with a number of academic studies that have found that competition between H.F.T. firms has made it easier and cheaper for ordinary investors to buy or sell stock whenever they want. They also confirm some of the problems with high-frequency trading that academics have started. That finding was notable because the trading firm Knight Capital lost nearly $460 million in half an hour in August when one of its computer programs went awry. But Mr. Lauer said his larger concern with the British report was that it did not acknowledge the degree to which the markets had become too complex to be understood even by the worlds most advanced scientists. If you cant understand the market then you cant understand how to fix it, Mr. Lauer said. Terrence Hendershott, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said that the lack of good scientific evidence on the effects of high-speed trading should be blamed not on the British committee, but instead on regulators. Given that these issues have been coming up for four years, how is it that the regulators have not been able to make more progress on this? Mr. Hendershott said. But Mr. Hendershott, who advised the British committee on parts of its report, said the group did a good job of noting where there are not problems. The committee, for example, found no evidence that high-frequency firms have been able to manipulate the prices of shares for their own benefit. The report argues that the rise of high-speed trading may be helping to prevent price manipulation because the firms have an incentive to find aberrations in the prices of stocks and quickly force prices to proper market levels. The authors do make a few recommendations for improving markets, but the major ones are already in effect in the United States, including circuit breakers that stop trading in a stock when it rises or falls more than a given amount. Mr. Beddington acknowledged that his group did not contend with some of the more intractable issues that many investors have been complaining about with increasing frequency in the United States, including the fragmentation of American stock markets onto 13 different public stock exchanges and dozens of private trading venues. Larger institutional investors have said this has made it hard to execute orders that used to be simple. Joe Saluzzi, a co-founder of Themis Trading, and one of the harshest critics of high-frequency trading said the British committee lacked the evidence to come to firm conclusions on some of the most highly debated concerns, like the payments that exchanges give brokers to receive customer orders. They are punting on a lot of things, Mr. Saluzzi said. Am I surprised? No. Are we disappointed? Sure. They could have dug a little bit harder here.

YURIKO NAKAO/REUTERS

John Beddington, British governments chief scientific adviser.

pointed to in the past. For instance, the report said that highspeed traders can exacerbate big swings at moments of crisis, similar to the 2010 findings of Frank Zhang, a professor at the Yale School of Management. But the authors of the report that these are only isolated events. Mr. Zhang said on Monday that the incidents of big price swings were a problem precisely because they were isolated, and as a result they were that much more unpredictable and unnerving for ordinary investors. The clearest example, he said, was the 2010 flash crash, when share prices dropped almost 10 percent in half an hour with little obvious reason. They miss the bigger picture, Mr. Zhang said of the reports authors. David Lauer, a former employee at a few of these trading firms who has testified against the industry, said the British commission ignored or downplayed a number of studies that had pointed to the significant costs imposed on ordinary investors by recent developments. Mr. Lauer pointed to a paper released in September by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago that said that many trading firms did not have stringent processes to test their trading programs or to stop runaway trading after it

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

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THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

In London, Nimble Start-Ups Offer Alternatives to Banks

By MARK SCOTT

DealBook Online
PRIVATE PRACTICE Patrick J. Fitz-

LONDON When Hiroki Takeuchi joined McKinsey & Company in 2008, he had a front-row seat to the upheaval in finance. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Mr. Takeuchi, a 26-year-old Oxford graduate, worked with some of the worlds biggest banks trying to figure out how to adjust to new regulations and a changed market. Then he quit. For Mr. Takeuchi, memories of friends building successful start-ups at college outweighed the lucrative rewards offered by the blue-chip consulting firm. He joined forces with two McKinsey consultants, feverishly writing code out of his parents house on a minimal budget to create his own technology start-up. The result was GoCardless, a Londonbased company that allows small businesses to set up monthly payments to suppliers at a fraction of the cost that banks charge. The business has secured $1.5 million in seed capital from a number of well-known investors, including the American early-stage venture capital firm Y Combinator. The whole idea of bank payments is broken, said Mr. Takeuchi at the startups office in a dilapidated building on the outskirts of Londons financial district. Theres an opportunity here, and were looking to grab it. Londons fast-growing start-up scene is trying to disrupt the financial status quo. As consumers trust in banks deteriorates because of a series of recent scandals, young companies are pressing their newcomer advantage. Firms are

Young firms challenge entrenched incumbents, and find success.

offering services like low-cost foreign currency exchange and new ways for small business to borrow cash. Backed by venture capital firms like Index Ventures, the financial start-ups are taking on entrenched incumbents by using technology to pare back costs and improve the customer experience. Local authorities do not directly regulate many of the firms, but the young companies often use traditional banks and other financial firms for their back-office functions, like processing payments, which are monitored by British regulators. Start-ups are taking advantage of Londons position as a global financial center, said Adam Valkin, a partner at the European venture capital firm Accel Partners. They are innovating in ways that banks just cant do. The growth of finance entrepreneurs comes as Londons start-up community continues to flourish. Many parts of East London have transformed into a mini version of Silicon Valley, with the likes of Google opening shared office space to support fledgling companies. Finance, technology and fashion start-ups have been able to tap into the large talent pool of young, multilingual professionals eager to work for the firms. Many companies are following the lead of Wonga.com, an online lender founded in 2006 that has sought to fill a void left by banks by offering shortterm, high-interest loans to consumers and small businesses. The company has been criticized for charging high interest rates to vulnerable consumers. The typi-

PHOTOGRAPHS BY HAZEL THOMPSON FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Anil Stocker, top, a co-founder of MarketInvoice, and Hiroki Takeuchi, above, co-founder of GoCardless, two new financial firms based in London.
cal annual percentage rate on the companys loans is more than 4,000 percent, though Wonga.com says it only offers lending for a maximum of 30 days. To cut down on costs, the start-up relies on publicly available online data to determine whether an applicant is creditworthy. Loans can take as little as 15 minutes to arrange, and the company has branched out from consumer lending into the small-business market as individuals look for alternatives to banks. The tactics are paying off. Last year, the online lender reported a 269 percent rise in its net profit, to 45.8 million, or $73 million, after its loans increased fourfold compared with the previous year. Now, Wonga is now contemplating a multibillion-dollar initial public offering on Nasdaq, profiting from lending to consumers that are perceived as too risky for banks. For many workers in Londons financial services sector, successes like Wonga have turned the idea of starting a business into an increasingly attractive option. With investment banking activities on the wane, job prospects in the industry have remained poor since the beginning of the financial crisis, and the financial sector here is expected to lose 25,000 jobs this year. Anil Stocker has seen the layoffs up close. Mr. Stocker, a 28-year-old Cambridge graduate, left Lehman Brothers a few months before it collapsed in 2008. A year later, he resigned from the American investment bank Cogent Partners to co-found MarketInvoice with two

friends who worked at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. The start-up helps small businesses gain access to capital by selling their supplier invoices to investors at a discount. The finance industry will have to completely change, and we are just at the beginning, Mr. Stocker said. MarketInvoice wants to exploit an underserved market in the banking sector. As firms have pulled back on lending, small business have been denied credit because they are deemed too much of a financial risk. To help these companies access cash, Mr. Stocker and his partners began an online marketplace where small businesses can auction their long-term supply contracts to money managers for the highest price. Many of these invoices can take up to 90 days to pay out, so companies are willing to sell them at a discount to get hold of short-term capital. Starting the business has not been easy. It took MarketInvoices founders who were still working for banks almost a year to devise the business plan, and a further six months to raise $1.4 million from investors. The start-up auctioned its first supplier contract for 40,000, or $64,000, in early 2011, but only hit the 1 million mark nine months later. No one wanted to be the first company to use our system, Mr. Stocker said. At the beginning, you live or die by your reputation. Londons finance start-ups also are attracting entrepreneurs with a technology background. Taavet Hinrikus, a 31-year-old Estonian who was Skypes first employee, dreamed up his business while still working for the Internet calling service. In 2006, the company moved him to London from Tallinn, Estonia, where he rose to become Skypes director of strategy. But Mr. Hinrikus grew frustrated after losing 5 percent of his salary to bank charges every time he moved money from Estonia to Britain. After meeting fellow compatriots in London who wanted to transfer cash back Estonia, Mr. Hinrikus created a system in which individuals could move money to each others accounts. By agreeing to swap currencies at a set rate, Mr. Hinrikus said he saved thousands of dollars in bank fees. We had to find our own way to avoid the charges, he said. With his business partner, Kristo Kaarmann, a former management consultant, Mr. Hinrikus built a Web site that connects people looking to exchange British pounds with euros. Their start-up, called TransferWise, acts as an intermediary for the money transfers and has expanded into other European currencies. Not everything has gone to plan. The start-up had to wait 18 months to receive its license to operate from British regulators. Yet in its first 12 months, Mr. Hinrikus said TransferWise has helped people to exchange around $10 million of foreign currencies that has avoided costly bank charges. The start-up also has raised $1.3 million in seed capital from investors, including PayPals co-founder Max Levchin. Banks arent doing a good job at innovating for consumers, said Robert Dighero, a partner in the London-based venture capital firm Passion Capital. Start-ups are nibbling away at some of their most profitable businesses.

gerald, below, who as the United States attorney in Chicago oversaw the prosecutions of two Illinois governors and a former Bush administration White House aide, I. Lewis Libby Jr., is joining Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. Mr. Fitzgerald, 51, will work in the firms Chicago office. Before stepping down at the end of June, he had served as the United States attorney for the Northern District of Illinois since 2001, making him the longest tenured United States attorney for Chicago.
PETER LATTMAN

POSSIBLE DOWNGRADES Stand-

ard & Poors released an analysis on Monday contending that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, more than any other Wall Street giant, could suffer under the socalled Volcker Rule. The rating agency warned that an especially stringent version of the still-unfinished rule might prompt S.& P. to downgrade the ratings of certain big banks.
BEN PROTESS

DELAYED DEBUT MegaFon, one of

Russias largest cellphone companies, on Monday postponed the marketing campaign for an initial public offering that it hoped to complete by the end of the year. In a statement, MegaFon, whose majority owner is Russias richest man, Alisher Usmanov, above, said it expected to meet with investors to discuss the potential I.P.O. at a later date, adding that it would wait until after reporting third-quarter results in early November.
MARK SCOTT

GOING PRIVATE A consortium led

by the private equity firm Permira has agreed to buy Ancestry.com for around $1.6 billion. Under the deal terms, Permira and its partners will pay $32 a share for Ancestry.com, a genealogy Web site. The agreement represents a 40 percent premium to the companys closing share price in June, when the deal was MARK SCOTT first reported.
CONFLICTING INTERESTS The insider trading charges against Anthony Chiasson, a co-founder of Level Global Investors, and Todd Newman, a former portfolio manager at Diamondback Capital Management, has put them at odds and may end up with one implicating the other as part of a defense strategy. According to White Collar Watch, Mr. Chiasson wants to use a chain of e-mails to show that he was not a recipient of insider information, evidence that could hurt Mr. Newmans case.
PETER J. HENNING

nytimes.com/dealbook

Nissan Recalls 14,000 Altimas Because of a Steering Defect

By CHRISTOPHER JENSEN

Nissan is recalling almost 14,000 of its 2012-13 Altimas because of a steering defect that could cause the driver to lose control of the vehicle, according to a report the automaker filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Notably, the recall applies to certain 2013 models; the Altima was redesigned for the 2013 model year. The safety agency also announced an investigation into the possibility of a complete loss of steering capability on 70,000

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Hyundai Santa Fe crossovers from 2011. Nissan told the agency that bolts for the power steering rack and transverse link were not torqued to the proper specification. This could allow the bolts to loosen, initially causing a rattle and vibration. If the driver continues to drive the vehicle in this condition the bolts may fall out completely and in that extreme case the driver may experience difficulty controlling the direction of the vehicle, Nissan said. Nissan told the agency it found a loose transverse link bolt late in July during a routine dynamic driving evaluation. Early in August, Nissan found additional loose bolts in vehicles at the assembly plant in Canton, Miss. The automaker, which said it requested that dealers check vehicles for the condition, did not conclude that a recall was needed until Oct 3. Steve Yaeger, a Nissan spokesman, said in an e-mail that the automaker was not aware of any accidents related to the problem. The investigation into the Santa Fe involves a loose fastener in the steering shaft of 2011 models. The agency said it decided to investigate after receiving one complaint from an owner of a complete loss of steering, although there was no accident. The agency also said it had received field report data from Hyundai about a similar issue, but did not provide details.

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

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Farallon Capitals Founder To Step Down This Year

By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED and PETER LATTMAN

Another one of the worlds biggest hedge funds is preparing for life beyond its founder. Farallon Capital Management announced on Monday that its senior managing member, Thomas F. Steyer, would leave the firm at the end of the year. Mr. Steyer, who managed a $20 billion investment firm, is part of a group of hedge fund executives who have started firms from scratch and built large-scale global operations with billions of dollars under management. They now wield influence over Wall Street and the global economy. As they have grown older and ever richer they are passing the baton to successors. Mr. Steyer, 55, made clear that his separation would be final. He will have no official role or responsibilities at Farallon, and his partners will buy out his interest in the share of the hedge funds profits. The announcement is the natural next step, is accepted internally and wont change our mode of operation, Mr. Steyer wrote in a letter to his investors. The playbook wont change when I leave.

Andrew J. M. Spokes, who has been running Farallon alongside Mr. Steyer, will take the reins. Because hedge fund firms are so often closely identified with a particular individual, transitions can be rocky. Last year, for instance, Shumway Capital Partners was forced to close after its founder, Chris Shumway, left, even though he had put the fund in the hands of a lieutenant. But at other big funds, transitions have been smooth. Bruce Kovner of Caxton Associates left the firm last year in the hands of his chief investment officer, Andrew E. Law. And David E. Shaw of D. E. Shaw & Company has passed on management responsibilities to a committee of executives. Still others, like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, have decided to leave the business of managing other peoples money, closing their funds to outside investors but remaining active in the sector by managing their own fortunes. Though well known on Wall Street trading floors, Mr. Steyer has mostly operated outside the spotlight. His low profile has been by design and is largely a function of Farallons being

I want my life to revolve around service in one form or another.

taken on a more public role, becoming a force in California Democratic politics. In 2010, he helped defeat a ballot initiative to repeal Californias global warming law, and this year he has donated more than $20 million to support a measure that would close a corporate-tax loophole in the state. He has also been a major fundraiser for President Obama. He and his wife, Kat Taylor, founded One PacificCoast Bank, a community lender based in Oakland that provides capital for small businesses. Mr. Steyer spoke this summer at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., delivering a sixminute speech on energy policy. Such moves have fueled speculation of a political career for Mr. Steyer, perhaps even a bid for governor of California. I want my life to revolve around service in one form or another, Mr. Steyer wrote in his letter on Monday, including continuing participation in our community bank, in encouraging the advanced energy economy and in specific policy initiatives here in California.

ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES

Thomas F. Steyer spoke about energy at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C.
based in San Francisco, known more as a technology hub than a financial center. Mr. Steyer, a New York City native, graduated from Yale University, where he played varsity soccer, and from Stanford Business School. He joined Goldman Sachs and trained under Robert E. Rubin on the banks storied risk arbitrage desk alongside other future hedge fund billionaires like Edward S. Lampert and Daniel S. Och. He started his own firm in 1986, receiving the initial backing from F. Warren Hellman, a co-founder of the San Francisco-based private equity firm Hellman & Friedman, who died last year. Farallon takes its name from a group of islands off the coast of San Francisco. The fund, which at its peak in 2008 had $37 billion in assets before being buffeted by the financial crisis, has returned about 13.4 percent over its history. Farallon is up about 9.5 percent this year. In recent years Mr. Steyer has

David Lerner Associates Is Fined and Its Founder Is Suspended Over Customer Markups
By Reuters

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority said on Monday it had ordered David Lerner Associates to pay about $12 million to customers that bought into a $2 billion real estate investment trust and to those who were charged excessive markups. Finra, the retail brokerage industrys watchdog, also said it had fined the firm, based in Syosset, N.Y., more than $2.3 million for charging unfair prices on municipal bonds and collateralized mortgage obligations. In addition, the firms founder and chief executive, David Lerner, 76, was fined $250,000 and suspended for one year from the securities industry, followed by a two-year suspension from acting as a principal, Finra said. The firm remains in business. The settlement is the end of a

long battle between Mr. Lerner and Finra, which filed a series of regulatory complaints against the firm and Mr. Lerner, beginning in 2010. Finras sanctions against Mr. Lerner individually also are an unusual instance of a regulator taking action against the head of a brokerage, industry lawyers say. The $2 billion nontraded real estate investment trust called Apple REIT Ten was marketed by Mr. Lerners firm to investors without adequately establishing whether the securities were suitable for the investors and by misrepresenting performance results, according to Finra. David Lerner and his firm targeted unsophisticated and elderly customers, grossly failing to comply with basic standards of suitability in selling Apple REIT Ten to thousands of customers, Brad Bennett, Finras chief of en-

forcement, said in a statement. Mr. Lerner and his firm neither admitted nor denied the charges, but consented to the entry of Finras findings as part of a settlement, the regulator said. The firm has also agreed to revise its advertising procedures, including videotaping sales seminars attended by 50 or more people for three years, and is required, for one year, to prefile all advertisements and sales literature with Finra at least 10 days before use, Finra added. A lawyer for David Lerner Associates said it is time to move the company past the regulatory distractions that the firm has been forced to deal with during the past few years. The actions by Finra have been very costly to defend and very distracting to the firms efforts for its clients, said Joseph Pickard, the firms senior vice president and general

A real estate investment trust prompted scrutiny.

counsel, in a statement. Mr. Lerners firm will continue to do business during his absence under the leadership of John Dempsey, a 33-year veteran of the firm, he said. REITs invest in commercial real estate, such as hotels and strip malls, offering a way to profit from rises in property values. Nontraded REITs, such as Apple Ten, however, do not trade on securities exchanges. They can be illiquid or difficult to sell in secondary markets. Nontraded REITs also often have higher fees for investors than publicly traded

REITs. Mr. Lerner himself called the REIT a fabulous cash cow and a gold mine and made unfounded predictions regarding a merger and public listing of other Apple REITs, which he inappropriately claimed would result in a windfall to investors, Finra said. The brokerage continues to deny that investments it sold were inappropriate for its customers. Contrary to Finras suggestion, Mr. Pickards statement said, there were no charges nor findings that any of the investments were not in fact suitable for any of the investors. Lerners firm, however, was not in a position to determine whether the investments were suitable because it had not conducted adequate due diligence on the REITs to determine potential risks and rewards to investors,

according to the settlement. While Mr. Lerner agreed to leave the brokerage firm, Mr. Pickards statement said he will become more involved with other nonbroker/dealer business enterprises that have been developed over the years, such as the Spirit of America Mutual funds. Those funds, sold by David Lerner Associates, have a total of more than $600 million in assets, and are characterized by high fees, according to Morningstar. David Lerners head trader, William Mason, was also fined $200,000 and suspended from the securities industry for six months. While the settlement resolves pending regulatory actions against Mr. Lerner and his firm, dozens of investors are still trying to recoup money through securities arbitration claims and class-action lawsuits.

B8

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

ADVERTISING

To Stand Out, Campaign For Adobe Gets Blunt

By STUART ELLIOTT

F.D.A. Is Told of 5 Deaths After Using Energy Drink

From First Business Page ports of five deaths with possible links to the drink as well as a report of a nonfatal heart attack. Additional incident reports referred to other adverse events such as abdominal pain, vomiting, tremors and abnormal heart rate. The reports disclosed cover a period of 2004 to June of this year, but all the deaths occurred in 2009 or later. The filings do not make clear whether the incidents involved other factors, like alcohol or drugs. However, the number of reports that the F.D.A. receives about any product it regulates usually understates by a large degree the actual number of problems. The release of the filings about Monster Energy may increase Congressional calls for greater regulation of the energy products industry. Monster Energy is among scores of energy drinks like Red Bull and Rock Star, and energy shots like 5-hour Energy, that companies are aggressively marketing to teenagers and young people. In a statement, Ms. Burgess, the F.D.A. spokeswoman, said that it was the responsibility of energy drink manufacturers to investigate accusations of death or injuries associated with them. She said that the agency was still looking into the cases but had yet to establish a causal link between the deaths and the drink. But the release of the F.D.A. reports may also raise questions about how closely producers of energy products monitor their safety or whether the F.D.A. reviews those activities. Late Monday, Ms. Sfetcu, the Monster Beverage spokesman, said that the company had not received copies of the F.D.A. incident filings about possible fatalities associated with its products apart from the one filed in connection with the December death of the Maryland teenager, Anais Fournier. She said she did not know whether the company actively monitored the F.D.A. database that collects reports about such incidents. Monster Beverage makes a variety of energy drinks with names like Monster Rehab, Monster Assault and Monster Heavy Metal. Labels on the containers state that they are not recommended for some consumers, including children a group that beverage producers define as those under 12 years and people sensitive to caffeine. Under current F.D.A. rules, companies are not required to disclose caffeine levels in their beverages and can choose to market them as drinks or as dietary supplements. Those regulatory categories have differing labeling and ingredient rules. While healthy adults can safely consume large quantities of caffeine from sources like coffee, tea and energy drinks, the drug, which acts as a stimulant, can pose risks to those with underlying conditions like heart disorders. The type of 24-ounce can of Monster Energy that the Maryland teenager, Anais Fournier, drank contains 240 milligrams of caffeine. The lawsuit filed last week on behalf of the teenager referred to

NOTHER blue-chip brand is turning to what was once called blue language to help stand out in a cluttered advertising landscape. In this instance, the brand is Adobe, which in a campaign getting under way this week seeks to support efforts by marketers to prove to their bosses that spending on advertising is not a waste of money. The campaign portrays products like Adobe Analytics, Adobe Media Optimizer and Adobe Social as valuable tools for marketing executives who want to debunk myths like Social media is worthless and Marketing is baloney. Except that Adobe Systems and its agency Goodby, Silverstein & Partners in San Francisco, part of the Omnicom Group do not say baloney in the ad. Rather, they use an abbreviation for a word that a family newspaper would describe as a barnyard epithet.

Adobes marketing campaign includes a Web video portraying a fanciful focus group.
tives, the actress playing the wife tells the actor playing the husband that he stinks at folding clothes only she uses a far more direct verb. Were a family company, Mr. Pritchard said in a speech at the 2012 annual conference of the Association of National Advertisers, and there was more than a little discussion about that line. But new efforts for Tide that include the franker commercial have helped the brand grow more than two-and-a-half share points in the last three months alone, Mr. Pritchard said, referring to market share. For Adobe, said Ann Lewnes, chief marketing officer at Adobe Systems in San Jose, Calif., the language represents a bold and provocative way to get attention. I think Adobe is not known for being provocative or bold, Ms. Lewnes said. Were a nice software company. But in this crowded space, with a lot of competition, the intent is to break through, jolt the market, she added. Twitter, Adobe will use the hashtag #MetricsNotMyths to underline the campaigns theme. The barnyard epithet is appropriate for the campaign because for a long time, people did not know if the work was working, so you had to use a little baloney in discussing the effectiveness of the advertising with other executives in the C-suite, said Keith Anderson, associate partner and executive design director at Goodby, Silverstein. It made you feel less confident, Mr. Anderson said. But now, you can know, you dont have to guess, you can have hard facts to back you up. The frankness of the campaign also signals that the agency and Adobe Systems realize if we were flowery, overly clever, jargony, the more it would feel like we were doing the same thing we were saying people dont need to do anymore, he added. We did look at other ways of making that statement than to use the epithet, Mr. Anderson said, but it was decided to proceed because the goal is to be provocative and reset the conversation. The language also conveys that Adobe is plain-spoken, he added, and talks the way people talk. The products being advertised in the campaign compose what Adobe Systems is calling the Adobe Marketing Cloud, which competes against products sold by many companies; among them, Ms. Lewnes listed Google, I.B.M., Kenshoo and Salesforce. The campaign is supplementing a more mainstream effort for Adobe, Ms. Lewnes said, which is also created by Goodby, Silverstein and carries the theme Adobe &. To indicate the connection, the campaign carries the theme Adobe & marketing.

The full epithet, with an asterisk replacing a letter, appears on a document that Adobe is circulating internally to explain that the purpose of the campaign is to prove that marketing can no longer be dismissed with the epithet because todays campaigns are rooted in hard data and powerful insights.And the epithet appears unexpurgated in Web video clips that are part of the campaign, visible briefly on a Dymo-style label affixed to a fanciful detector contraption in scenes set in (make-believe) focus group sessions. Adobe Systems will spend an estimated $10 million to run the campaign in the United States for the next three months. The decision to use the provocative language is indicative of a trend for ads to speak more in the vernacular than in the formal phraseology that was standard for so many decades. The frank language and colloquial expressions follow the loosening of societal standards for discourse, reflecting how marketers seek to mirror changes in consumers. For instance, Procter & Gamble, for decades a model of rectitude in its ads, is now often adopting the look and feel of YouTube video when producing television commercials, said Marc S. Pritchard, global marketing and brand building officer at Procter. That is why in a recent commercial for Tide detergent, in which a couple talk about the value of Tide versus lower-priced alterna-

Monster Energy faces a lawsuit, and its stock price plummets.

autopsy and medical examiner reports that said she had died of cardiac arrhythmia due to caffeine toxicity that had exacerbated an existing heart problem. The report also showed that the teenager had Ehlers-Danlos syndrome, which can affect the bodys connective tissue, including blood vessels. A lawyer for her family, Kevin Goldberg, said that the 14-year-old had been aware she had an underlying heart condition but added that her doctors had not told her to restrict her physical activities or her caffeine use. In an April letter citing the teenagers death, Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, urged the F.D.A. to enforce caffeine levels in energy drinks. In August, F.D.A. officials responded by saying that there was insufficient evidence to take action on caffeine levels in energy drinks. However, the agency also noted then that it had not yet received medical reports related to the Maryland teenagers death.

Asked if the strategy was risky, Ms. Lewnes replied: I dont think so at all. I think good advertising is always somewhat polarizing.The campaign is based on the premise that marketers feel angry about being misunderstood, she said, and the language in the campaign is meant to reflect that. The campaign includes, in addition to the Web video, advertisements in newspapers and magazines, and online; sponsored content on mashable.com and theonion.com; sharing the metrics of the campaign, in real time, on adobe.com; and social media like Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter and YouTube. On

Despite Push for Austerity, European Debt Has Soared

By LANDON THOMAS Jr. and DAVID JOLLY

Smaller Deficits but More Debt

A recent report from the International Monetary Fund highlights the risk behind austerity measures in countries like Greece. Even as Greece has cut its budget deficit, a shrinking economy means its debt burden continues to rise.
Government budget deficit as a share of G.D.P. 0 10%
Projected

LONDON As Greece and its international lenders continue tense talks on reducing the Greek budget deficit, new data from the European Union on Monday underscored the potentially Sisyphean nature of such efforts. Some of the countries that have made the most progress in closing their budget gaps Greece, in particular have also had their overall debt loads actually get bigger as a percentage of the economy, according to data released by Eurostat, the European Unions data agency. A recent report from the International Monetary Fund, one of Greeces international creditors, reached a similar conclusion. That helps explain why the I.M.F. has started adopting a less austere stance toward debtor countries, even as countries like Germany continue to take a hard fiscal line, insisting that Athens stick to a program of lower spending and higher taxes. Critics of the euro zones austerity push have argued it is counterproductive. But the new data provide perhaps the starkest, most objective picture yet of the mounting burdens shouldered by countries that have accepted bailouts, like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, as well as Spain, which may soon need to accept its own strings-attached European aid. The economies of all four countries have contracted sharply under the austerity measures Greeces by one-fourth since 2009. But the size of the debts relative to economic output has soared. That raises serious questions about their ability to repay those obligations over time. If you want to make its debt burden sustainable, there will have to be some kind of debt forgiveness and restructuring, Jrg Krmer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said of Greece. For now, the Greek government apparently sees little choice but to continue working out a 13.5 billion euro ($17.6 billion) austerity package and changes to labor laws that its international creditors have demanded before releasing the next installment of bailout loans. Negotiations continued Monday in Athens with the creditors: the I.M.F., the European Central Bank and the European Commission. The Greek finance minister, Yannis Stournaras, told the ecoLandon Thomas Jr. reported from London, and David Jolly from Paris. Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.

08 10 12

08 10 12

08 10 12

08 10 12

08 10 12

20 30 EURO AREA GREECE IRELAND PORTUGAL SPAIN

Gross general government debt as a share of G.D.P. 200% 150 100 50 0 08 10 12 08 10 12 08 10 12 08 10 12 08 10 12

THE NEW YORK TIMES

Source: International Monetary Fund

nomic affairs committee in Parliament on Monday that the new austerity package must be approved quickly so that Greece can secure crucial rescue funding. The cost of us not getting the tranche would be huge, he said. People would go hungry. Many analysts and economists, though, say the most diligent deficit reduction programs would do little to bring down debt levels as long as economies are not growing and the interest rates that these countries pay on their debt remain high. The theory that these countries will grow out of their debt problem has a strong aspirational element to it, said Lee C. Buchheit, a senior sovereign debt lawyer at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton in New York. He worked on debt reduction deals from Latin America in the 1990s and was involved in the revamping of Greeces debt this year. There is not much doubt that this problem will require a more severe remedy, Mr. Buchheit said. There have been varying causes for the debt spirals. Greeces ratio of debt to gross domestic product has hit a new high of 170 percent, and Portugals has reached 120 percent. Both can blame high interest rates and deep recessions. But for Ireland, with a debt burden of 117 percent of G.D.P., and Spain, with a ratio of 90 percent, a big factor is heavy borrowing to bail out their failed banks. The promise by the European

Central Bank to buy troubled countries bonds, if requested, has reduced some of the shortterm borrowing costs of these countries. But they are still much higher than the interest rates paid by the most creditworthy euro zone nations, like Germany. Debt experts like Mr. Buchheit, who recently published a paper on the subject, argue that debt relief is inevitable over the long term if these countries are to re-

Reports raise concerns on ability of 4 nations to pay creditors.

turn to meaningful growth. Even the I.M.F., which traditionally shuns debt write-offs, has said that for Greece whose debt mostly is held by other governments and the central bank some form of additional debt adjustment should be considered. Rich European countries have rejected the idea, fearing that to ask their taxpayers again to forgive some of Greeces debt could spell political doom. It is a noteworthy philosophical shift for the I.M.F., according to long-term observers of the institution. And it suggests that the fund has learned from its experience in the late 1990s, when its austere budgetary demands

backfired in Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand, causing deep recessions in all three countries. The fund is responding to the German eat-your-peas argument that has become so powerful in Europe, said Paul Blustein, the author of The Chastening, a book on the funds checkered experience during the Asian crisis that began in 1997. I think this is largely an exercise in intellectual honesty and its a bit of a mea culpa, too, said Arvind Subramanian, a former research director at the I.M.F. who is now at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. But the more interesting question is, so what? Will this really make a difference in Spain and Greece? Martine Guerguil is the assistant director of the I.M.F.s fiscal policy and surveillance division, where it is her job to keep track of the progress that countries are making in reducing their debt. You will need fiscal consolidation for quite some time to bring these debt ratios down, she said, speaking last week at a briefing session held at Chatham House, a research organization in London. The Greek recession is in its fifth year. Since 2007, the Portuguese economy has shrunk every year except for 2010, with 2013 expected to be another down year. And Spain has now entered a low-growth cycle. Given this outlook, Ms. Guerguil does not expect debt ratios in these countries to stabilize until sometime between 2014 and 2016. A companion study to the I.M.F.s recent report provided a cautionary case study: what happened in Britain from 1918 to 1933, when the country put in place spending cuts and tax increases as it grappled with debts it took on during World War I. The result was 15 years in which the economy shrank an average 0.2 percent a year. Unemployment soared. And the British debt burden grew from 140 percent of G.D.P. in 1918 to 190 percent a decade and a half later. Only in cutting the deficit was the policy a success: during this period Britains budget surplus, excluding debt from interest payments, averaged 8.2 percent of G.D.P. But, asked David Lloyd George, who was prime minister from 1916 to 1922, at what cost? He lamented later that the British economy had been sacrificed in large measure to the maintenance of integrity and good faith to all her creditors at home and abroad. The people of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland might feel now much as Mr. George did back then.

MARTY KATZ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Wendy Crossland of Hagerstown, Md., with a picture of her daughter, Anais Fournier, who died last year of cardiac arrest.

Young Americans Frequent Libraries, Pew Study Finds

By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY

In a digital world where many younger readers feel increasingly comfortable downloading novels and textbooks onto their computers or e-readers, a majority of Americans from the ages of 16 through 29 still frequent libraries. According to a study released Monday by the Pew Research Center, 60 percent of Americans surveyed in this age group said they still visited the library. They use libraries to conduct research, borrow print, audio and electronic books and, in some cases, read magazines and newspapers. That finding would seem to clash with the popular notion that young readers have turned away from libraries and print books as the source of their reading material, said Kathryn Zickuhr, research analyst with the Pew Research Centers Internet and American Life Project. A lot of people think that young people arent reading, they arent using libraries, Ms. Zickuhr said. That theyre just turning to Google for everything. The Pew Center has been researching the use of the nations libraries for more than two years, with financing from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The latest study involved a telephone survey, conducted last Novem-

ber and December, of nearly 3,000 people 16 and older talking about their reading habits, and data from two telephone polls conducted in January. While young people clearly do not read newspapers as regularly as their parents and grandparents did, their consumption of magazines is more closely aligned. The study showed that 40 percent of surveyed Americans under 30 regularly read newspapers, compared with 62 percent of older Americans. Seventy-one percent of those under 30 who do read news regularly said they viewed all of their news through handheld devices. While 42 percent of Americans under 30 read magazines, 50 percent of older adults read magazines. But in troubling news for tablet makers, the study also found that the subjects under 30 who read electronically were more likely to read books on a cellphone or a computer. In fact, the study found that 41 percent of readers under 30 view books using a cellphone and 55 percent read from a computer. Only 23 percent of Americans under 30 used an e-reader and 16 percent used a tablet. Thats definitely something we will keep an eye on, Ms. Zickuhr said.

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

B9

ITINERARIES
ON THE ROAD

Midsize Markets Suffer Airline Neglect

By JOE SHARKEY

HOUSTON OU cant get there from here is an old joke. But after my experience trying to get from Tucson to Houston on short notice over the weekend, Im not laughing. Last Wednesday, I learned that I had to be in Houston for business before 3 p.m. on Sunday. Hey, no problem, I thought as I went online to look for flights. Big problem, as it turned out. I knew, in theory, that business travelers flying to and from medium-size markets like Tucson were regularly confronting the realities of todays domestic air travel system. Focusing more on big hubs and on ever-closer partnerships with international alliances, airlines have greatly reduced service at midsize and smaller regional airports. Those airports, on average, have lost about 25 percent of their seats in the last two years, according to Boyd Group International, the airline forecasting company. The main consequence is that, sometimes, you really cant get there from here at least not easily and on a reasonable schedule. When I checked the flight schedules, round-trip coach fares to Houston from Tucson a flight of a little more than two hours were all in the $800 to $1,200 range. But even at that price, I couldnt find a flight that would get me to Houston on Sunday before 3 p.m. Several were sold out, and the single Southwest flight wouldnt work because it arrived too late at Hobby Airport in Houston, more than 30 miles from Bush Intercontinental Airport, where I had to meet someone. My only option was to leave a day earlier and spend an extra night in a hotel. So I arrived in Houston a little after 11 p.m. on Saturday on a US Airways flight from Tucson that had required a mad dash to make the connection at Phoenix, after the airline abruptly switched gates from one terminal to another. Incidentally, when I arrived at the Tucson airport at midafternoon on Saturday, I saw 10 flights on the departure board for that day nine westbound, to places like Los Angeles or San Diego, and not a single one, other than the flight I was on, heading east. Midsize and smaller airports, which are after all local businesses at their core, have been scrambling to attract more air service, though many aviation experts contend its a lost cause because the airlines have become so adept

E-mail: jsharkey@nytimes.com

at reducing capacity to keep planes full. The strategic decisions about air service, usually made in conjunction with the airlines global alliance partners, are all about matching costs to revenues that can be generated by any given route, said Michael Boyd, the president of Boyd Group. Airlines are no longer chasing passenger volume. A result is that the air travel system is contracting, and there are no signs that will change in at least the next few years. The airports that are sponsoring studies to attract new airlines or new nonstop routes are wasting their money, Mr. Boyd said ruefully. There are no airlines left that have a strong desire to add new regional capacity, he said, adding: The cavalry isnt coming. The cavalry doesnt even exist anymore. Tucson, a vibrant city of more than 500,000 in southern Arizona, is one good example. From 2004 to 2007, air service at the Tucson airport increased 27 percent, said Mary Davis, the airports senior director of business development and marketing. Then, as airlines fundamentally shifted strategy and consolidated markets after the spike in fuel prices in 2008 and the economic effects of the reCHRIS GASH cession, the airport lost about 30 percent of our service, she said. Were trying to re-engage a conversation with our airline partners and say, look, we understand you need to be profitable; we understand that youve had to change your business models; we even understand that airlines are now hub-centered; we understand that if youre going to have nonstop service, passengers are going to pay a premium for it, she said. But where does that leave the middle guy? As a middle-guy business traveler, I saw on Saturday that the very, very pleasant Tucson airport was very, very quiet, while the Phoenix airport, a big hub, was so crowded that people were sitting on the floor and gate agents were making desperate calls for volunteers to give up seats on overbooked flights Meanwhile, at the Houston airport late that night, I waited for a hotel shuttle bus while listening to repetitions of that singularly irritating security announcement used at Houston. You know, the one in which the lady with a voice like Granny on The Beverly Hillbillies warns that inappropriate remarks or jokes concerning security may result in your arrest. Dont worry, I thought. There is absolutely nothing to joke about in any aspect of domestic air travel these days.

YANNICK GRANDMONT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Royal Jordanian Airlines passengers take a train to Ottawa from Montreal to make a connection.

Train or Plane? More Travelers Choose Both

By CHRISTINE NEGRONI

Air travelers in Canada, France, Germany and Spain may increasingly find that they are doing part of their journey on the ground, as airlines work with rail companies to sell tickets for combined trips. William Agius, a lecturer at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences and a frequent traveler, said he had booked tickets on Air France, Lufthansa and Swiss that included legs by rail. During the booking process, you notice no difference, and at the end of the process you have a message alerting you to the fact that that particular service is operated by train and not by plane, he said. A combination of faster trains and slower progress through crowded airports makes rail travel competitive with air on routes that are three and a half to four and a half hours long, said Andrew Sharp, director general of the International Air Rail Organization, based in London. This is especially the case in Europe, where many railway stations are in or near international airports. Counting the time spent getting to and from the airport, checking in and getting on and off the plane, any flight, even a 24-minute flight like San Diego to Los Angeles, will take three hours, Mr. Sharp said. Even Mr. Agius, who works at the universitys Center for Aviation and is an avid flier, said that taking the train is sometimes a good option. I would prefer to take the train anytime, simply out of convenience, if the overall journey time from door to door is similar to that by plane, he said. About five years ago, the 300-mile trip to Paris from Strasbourg, in eastern France, took six hours. In 2007, the French railroad SNCF began running a high-speed train that made the trip to Charles de Gaulle Airport in two and a half hours. The rail service effectively killed Air Frances Strasbourg flight, a spokeswoman said, and so on Dec. 9, the airline will eliminate its four-times-a-day air service and sell a trip to Paris that goes by rail. Passengers will be checked into their final destination by Air France staff at a special check-in desk at Strasbourg station, the spokeswoman, Claire Jacobs, said. Replacing an air route with rail is a first for Air France, but it follows an example set nearly 30 years ago when Luft-

hansa, in Germany, started selling airline tickets with flight numbers on trains operating between the Frankfurt and Dsseldorf airports. By eliminating these flights, airlines like Lufthansa and Air France free up gate slots for more profitable routes usually long-haul flights. Outside Europe, however, commercial partnerships between rail and air operators remain novel. This year, for the first time, Canadas national rail system, VIA Rail, signed agreements with Royal Jordanian Airlines and Air Transat that allow the companies to sell each others tickets, coordinate schedules and share revenue. This initiative of ours is mostly to allow Royal Jordanian to be competitive in the Ontario market, from where we have no flights and our interline agreement fares with Air Canada are prohibitively

Combined tickets are being used where rail stops are near airports.
high, said Manouk Manoukian, head of operations for Royal Jordanian in Canada. Royal Jordanian operates twice-weekly service from Montreal to Amman, and many travelers from Canada transfer to other flights in the region on arrival in Jordan. Much of Canadas Arab population is in Ottawa (125 miles from Montreal) and Toronto (300 miles). The partnership is a solution that will help us achieve a higher level of sales, Mr. Manoukian said in an e-mail. Like other code share agreements, the one between Royal Jordanian and VIA allows passengers to buy a complete journey by rail and by air through either company. Right from the start, providing doorto-door mobility has been the holy grail, said Mohamed Bhanji, director of marketing technologies at VIA. The company runs intercity, regional and transcontinental trains, as well as motor coaches, and Mr. Bhanji said its plan was to link Canadian cities to airports across the border: for example, Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit and Vancouver to Seattle. In other countries, the challenge is instilling a taste for trains among those

who prefer air travel. When the Spanish airline Spanair went out of business, Avianca in Colombia has this problem. Spanair had been responsible for sending 10,000 passengers to Colombia on Avianca, and its collapse left the Colombian carrier with a problem in Spain, said the airlines chief operating officer, Estuardo Ortiz. Without them, we had no distribution, he said. Avianca turned to Spains Renfe train system. The deal with Renfe, which went into effect in April, allows Avianca to sell tickets to 15 destinations in Spain departing by rail from airports in Madrid and Barcelona. Even in places where train travel is common, railroad stations have to be close to or in the airport, as they are in Europe, for the agreements to work, according to a report Mr. Sharp wrote for his air rail organization, which receives support from a Heathrow Airport rail link, Heathrow Express. A train station at an airport is virtually essential, it said. This is why in the United States, Amtrak has just one airline agreement a 10-year-old code share with United Airlines at Newark, the only high-speed train station in the country close to an international airport. The U.S. rail system has grown up independently from the airport system, said Matt Hardison, chief of sales, distribution and customer service at Amtrak. That is the No. 1 challenge we face. About 24,000 people a year take Amtrak to Newark to connect to United flights, with 90 percent of them coming from Philadelphia, 79 miles away, Mr. Hardison said. Travelers in Delaware and Connecticut can also book a combination ticket through Amtrak or United. We picked those because we wanted to test underserved cities, places where rail had an advantage over air, Mr. Hardison said. But, he added, customers traveling from Connecticut encounter 15to 20-minute layovers at Pennsylvania Station in New York, and that is dissuading them. Were in the transportation business, and were all about giving options to the traveling public, said David Kinzelman, managing director of alliances at United. Look at the population in the United States. Theres not an aversion to taking a train to the plane, but its physically not possible in very many places. Its a chicken and egg situation.

B10

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

ITINERARIES
FREQUENT FLIER

Feliz Navidad, Locked in a Chilean Airport

M chief running officer of Runners World magazine. Ive run on all seven continents. I did a marathon in Antarctica, the Mount Kilimanjaro marathon and the Ironman five times, among other races across the world. I still run, but not like that anymore. Now I travel to a lot of events to provide motivation, maybe do a book signing and talk to people about how best to run a race. I like flying, but I always say I dont enjoy planning. To me, the best part is getting to where Im going and meeting new people. Its interesting to see how people view running in other parts of the world. Running in Kenya is like football in America. People are obsessed with it. But running is also a mode of transportation. Children in small villages go out and run five miles, carrying their books, just to get to school. Lots of times when I would run in Kenya, children from a village would join me and keep pace. They probably could have beaten me. I once set up a race for some 12and 13-year-olds just to see how

Q. How often do you fly for

A. Cape Town, South Africa.

business? A. About five times a month, mostly domestic, but I take four or five international trips every year. Q. Whats your least favorite airport? A. Newark. Its cavernous, dark and disjointed. Q. Of all the places youve been, whats the best?

Although South Africa is still a fractured country in many ways, Cape Town is one of the most beautiful places on earth I think. There are penguins and wine. How can you go wrong? Q. Whats your secret airport vice? A. I really dont have one, although I have many moral failings. Maybe I just spend too much time on my iPad.

JON IVINS

Bart Yasso, chief running officer of Runners World magazine, at the Comrades Marathon in Durban, South Africa.

By Bart Yasso, as told to Joan Raymond. E-mail: joan.raymond @nytimes.com.

fast they could run. All of them were faster than me. I have had my share of travel problems, like everyone else. I seem to have a thing about getting stuck in airports. Once I got stuck in an airport in Santiago, Chile, when it was being shut down for Christmas Eve. I went through security about 10 p.m. and once I got through, I realized no other passengers were around. I went to immigration and was told my flight was canceled until the next morning. Apparently, there was a sign in Spanish put out by the regional airline I was

going to fly telling people not to go through security because the flight was canceled until Christmas morning. I guess I missed the sign or saw it and translated it wrong. My Spanish isnt that good. I thought I was going to be allowed out of the airport. Nope. I was told I had to stay. I tried to read a book by the only light available. It was near a fire extinguisher. That didnt work. Then, I tried to sleep in a chair. That didnt work either. I couldnt make a phone call because my calling cards didnt work. I felt like I was in The Twilight Zone.

About 4 a.m. I heard some noise. It was the janitor, and he had his family with him, probably since it was Christmas Day. I was so relieved to see people. They all came over to me and said, Feliz Navidad. It was a nice way to start the day. I finally got home at 7 p.m., with just enough time to still have Christmas with my own family. I was in Delhi, India, and the airport closed for some reason. Apparently, there was some kind of catastrophe, but I didnt have a clue what it was. I was at the ticket counter and was told the airport was going to be shut for about 36 hours. I went to customs and tried to leave, but was told I would have to surrender my passport. This was back in the early 1990s. Being stuck in the airport for a day didnt appeal to me. Neither did surrendering my passport. So I went into a bathroom, opened a window and jumped out. It was a short fall, and I sprinted across this grassy area and spent some time in town. No one was the wiser. It was actually kind of fun since I was young and proud of myself for getting out of the airport. Actually, I probably thought I was MacGyver.

Casting Dual Roles at Treasury and Fed Has Wall Street and Washington Talking
From First Business Page Treasury secretary and Federal Reserve chairman: The top Democratic name that pops up when discussing the Treasury position is usually Erskine Bowles, the former White House chief of staff under President Bill Clinton who reinvented himself with his Simpson-Bowles bipartisan plan to reduce the deficit. The business community, on both sides, appear to love the plan and say they love him. About a year ago, when Mr. Geithner first told the president that he wanted to step down before the president persuaded him to stick around for another year Mr. Bowles was at, or near, the top of the list, according to people involved in the process. That may have changed, however: Mr. Bowles has privately criticized the president to business leaders as he has sought to gain support for his plan. Some of that criticism has made its way back to the president, these people said, so it is unclear how strongly Mr. Obama would support him. Another, perhaps more intriguing idea has made the rounds: Mr. Bowles as a Romney appointee. Several supporters of Mr. Romney have pitched him and his team on the idea. An appointment of Mr. Bowles under Mr. Romney would be a quick and clever way to show that he wants to reach across the aisle and find bipartisan ways to comprise. Among the names on Wall Street that are thrown around, virtually none has a real shot, if for no other reason than, well, they work on Wall Street. Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, once considered a contender, is off the list. He recently told Vanity Fair, I intend to be here for many more years, adding, and I will not run for office. Laurence Fink, chief executive Glenn Hubbard, who headed the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush and is a top adviser to Mr. Romney, is often mentioned as a top candidate for the Federal Reserve job and the Treasury secretary job. It is likely that he would get one of the two. So the question is, who gets the other? If Mr. Hubbard takes the Treasury secretary job, the other candidates for Federal Reserve chairman are N. Gregory Mankiw, who also headed the Council of Economic Advisers, and John B. Taylor, a Stanford economist, though he is considered more of a long shot. If Mr. Hubbard gets the Federal Reserve job, however, the Treasury role becomes wide open. Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the World Bank, is said to be among the names in the hopper for the Treasury secretary job. (He was previously a managing director at Goldman Sachs, but his role at the World Bank may have cleansed him of his Wall Street association and Mr. Romney is less concerned about ties to finance given his own background.) Also on the list is Rob Portman, the senator from Ohio, who has become very close to Mr. Romney and knows a spreadsheet: he was director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Bush. Whether Mr. Romney would be willing to give up Mr. Portmans seat in the Senate is a question mark. Finally, there is Mike Leavitt, the former governor of Utah, who is a close confidant and adviser to Mr. Romney. He is likely to get a big role in Mr. Romneys cabinet. Oddly enough, given Wall Streets support for Mr. Romney, there are very few bankers or other business people on his short lists. Whoever gets these two roles, lets hope this buddy movie isnt too much of a thriller.

PHOTOGRAPHS BY ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES

Erskine Bowles, left, and Senator Rob Portman have both been mentioned as potential candidates for Treasury secretary.
of BlackRock, the asset management juggernaut, has been a big supporter of the president and has told friends he would love the job, but people close to the administration say it is unlikely he would get it, given his title and his firms previous relationship as an adviser to the Treasury. The same most likely can be said of Roger Altman, chairman of Evercore Partners and a former deputy Treasury secretary, who is well liked by the administration but may be unable to shed the investment banker baggage. And then there is Kenneth Chenault, the chief executive of American Express. Consider him a dark horse candidate, but perhaps the only person connected to the world of finance who would have a shot. His name was put on a list last summer when Mr. Geithner was considering leaving, people briefed on the list said. Given his history an African-American who made his way up the ranks at American Express starting in 1981 he could be the perfect mix of finance background and market experience, but one step removed from Wall Street banker. The chances of an executive from what people in Washington call a real company as in, not a financial business also do not appear good. The one name that is buzzed about most, Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, is likely to be off the table after Facebooks problematic I.P.O. Heres a wild card: Dan Doctoroff, chief executive of Bloomberg L.P. and a former deputy mayor of New York under Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He is hardly campaigning for the job, but his name was put on an internal list at the Treasury Department last summer, these people said, though it is unclear whether he would want the position. So who is most likely to get the job under President Obama? Drum roll, please. Jacob Lew. Huh? If youre a business person, you might be asking, Mr. Lew who? That is probably the biggest knock against him, which gives everyone else on the list a chance. Mr. Lew is Mr. Obamas chief of staff, which makes him very confirmable. A former lawyer and career technocrat, he does not have much of a business background he was briefly chief operating officer of Citigroups Alternative Investments unit, between the Clinton and Obama administrations but the president is very comfortable with him, and that can go a long way. Now, on to the role of Federal Reserve chairman under President Obama. It is slim pickings. At the top of the list is Lawrence Summers, Treasury secretary under President Clinton and director of the National Economic Council for President Obama. Hes a serious economist who knows his numbers and has a worldview that is similar to the presidents. He would be expected to continue the loose money policy of Mr. Bernanke. But one of the knocks against Mr. Summers is that he has a reputation for not playing well with others. He has had his own runins with the president. And if you consider the Treasury secretary and Federal Reserve chairman as a tag team, you would have to be confident that whomever you pick for Treasury secretary would get along well with Mr. Summers. There are a couple of other names in the Democratic economist world, but virtually all of them would be long shots: Janet L. Yellen, the vice chairwoman of the Federal Reserve. She would be the first woman to run the Federal Reserve and could provide some continuity. Alan Krueger, an economist who was briefly an assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy under President Obama, is less of a classic choice, but is considered highly by the president. If you want to be really daring, lets add one more name to the list, perhaps the perfect candidate from the presidents perspective: Mr. Geithner. He would have had a year to recover from his current position and may have tired of the speaking circuit. Given his former role as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the financial crisis, he would bring steadiness to the job with Mr. Bernankes departure, and a level of comfort for the president. Now, if Mr. Romney wins the presidency, the chessboard for possible appointments for Treasury secretary and Federal Reserve chairman becomes a little more crowded.

On the Feds Horizon, the Presidential Election Looms Large Over Monetary Policy
From First Business Page Romney intends to nominate as a successor to Mr. Bernanke. A range of experts regard two of Mr. Romneys economic advisers as the most likely candidates: R. Glenn Hubbard, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, and N. Gregory Mankiw, who followed Mr. Hubbard in that role. John B. Taylor, a Stanford University economics professor and outspoken critic of Fed policy, also is mentioned frequently. The choice of Professor Taylor or a like-minded critic would represent a dramatic step to change the course of monetary policy. By contrast, Professor Mankiw, an economist at Harvard University, and Professor Hubbard, dean of the Columbia University business school, both are seen as centrists. Professor Mankiw co-wrote a 2011 paper endorsing policies like those the Fed has pursued as the best way for government to enliven the economy. Professor Hubbard told Reuters TV in August that Mr. Bernanke is a model technocrat who should get every consideration for another term. If people really do think it would be Taylor, I would think that would interfere with the Feds ability to influence markets, said Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Fed economist. But if its not Taylor, I dont think it would have such a large effect. The Fed announced its latest stimulus campaign in September. The central bank said that it would purchase mortgage securities at a rate of $40 billion a month until it concluded that the outlook for the labor market had improved substantially. It also said it intended to keep shortterm interest rates near zero at least until mid-2015, extending its previous forecast from late 2014. The intervening weeks have seen glimmers of improvement in the unemployment rate and the housing market, but Fed officials have barely mentioned those data in recent speeches, focusing instead on explaining the new policy. As a result, analysts expect no changes when the Feds policy-making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, convenes here beginning Tuesday. A more consequential meeting looms in early December, when the Fed must decide whether to keep buying long-term Treasury securities. An ongoing program of purchases, Operation Twist, is scheduled to run through the end of the year. The combination of $45 billion a month in Treasuries and $40 billion a month in mortgage securities puts the Feds current efforts on a scale comparable to its earlier rounds of asset purchases. A decision to stop buying Treasuries, by contrast, would amount to a significant slowing in the pace of its stimulus campaign. There is little reason to think the outcome of the presidential election will affect that December decision, even if Mr. Romney is victorious. Mr. Bernanke will still be in charge, and the Fed is protective of its independence. But a Romney victory could begin to change the way investors respond to the Feds efforts. The central bank seeks to reduce borrowing costs for businesses and consumers by convincing investors that short-term interest rates will remain near zero. The more distant the horizon, the larger the economic impact. Conversely, as the horizon appears to move closer, the impact dwindles. In an August interview with Fox News, Mr. Romney promised to replace Mr. Bernanke with someone who shared my economic views, citing in particular the importance of maintaining a strong dollar. But it could prove difficult for a Romney nominee like Mr. Taylor to win confirmation if Democrats retain a majority in the Senate. If confirmed, the new chairman also could face internal resistance from Fed officials who favor stimulus even more strongly than Mr. Bernanke, including vice chairwoman Janet L. Yellen and William C. Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Fed chairmen historically have enjoyed considerable deference from their boards, but Mr. Gagnon said a sharp transition could be very messy. If President Obama wins a second term, there is no legal obstacle to a third term for Mr. Bernanke. His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, served 18 years. And the Fed is likely to persist in its efforts even if Mr. Bernanke does step down. The Obama administration has not commented on its plans for the leadership of the Fed in 2014. Mr. Bernanke avoided a question about the future at a September news conference. I am very focused on my work, he said, and I dont have any decision or any information to give you on my personal plans.

LUCAS JACKSON/REUTERS

TED S. WARREN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Left, R. Glenn Hubbard, a possible Romney nominee to lead the Fed, as well as John Taylor.

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

B11

Chinas Economy Puts Pressure on Exporters

From First Business Page as export-dependent giants like 3M and DuPont report results and discuss their business outlook. Earlier, Alcoa, the first such major company to report thirdquarter earnings, slightly lowered its estimate for global growth in aluminum demand because of slowing sales in China for products like trucks, trailers growth and jobs will depend on many factors. A pickup in economic activity in Europe or the United States, for example, could help compensate for any weakness in China, the source of roughly 10 percent of the worlds economic output in 2012. And the United States still brings in far more than it sends to China, importing nearly $4 in goods for every $1 it exports. Nevertheless, the rapid growth rate there benefited many large American exporters and made China the third-largest buyer of American goods after Canada and Mexico. In 2011, China imported $103.9 billion in American products, or 7 percent of worldwide American exports. Whats more, Chinese demand growth has obviously been cooling. In the first half of 2012, exports to China rose 7 percent from the comparable period a year earlier, according to Commerce Department data, down from a 20 percent annual increase in 2011 and a 36 percent jump in 2010. Five industries machinery, computers and electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and waste and scrap accounted for 62 percent of exports to China in August, according to Census Bureau data. But the im-

The Tennessee Valley Recycling center in Decatur, Ala., was founded 105 years ago.
cantly, dropping 29 percent in the first half of the year from the same period in 2011, on sinking demand for excavators and trucks. The job cuts will trim about 3 percent of Cumminss global work force of 45,000 but it is not clear how many of those cuts will fall in the United States. With $3.5 billion in revenues last year, Schnitzer Steel Industries is far smaller than Cummins, but it, too, considers China a key market. Scrap metal gathered in the junkyards of Schnitzer and other recyclers across the United States provides the raw material for stainless steel consumer goods made in China, as well as for the iron and steel bars undergirding construction there. Now, with local construction stalling, and demand for its consumer products weakening in Europe, China needs far less scrap. Exports of steel and iron scrap among the top products exported to China from the United States are down 53 percent this year from the comparable period in 2011, according to the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, a trade group. Prices are down roughly 30 percent as a result, said Joel Denbo, chief at Tennessee Valley Recycling in Decatur, Ala. Mr. Denbos family founded the company 105 years ago, and hes struggling to avoid layoffs among his work force of 175. He has already let 15 contractors go and eliminated overtime in a bid to keep the company profitable. People are asking me, Boss, what do we do? he said. We dont want to lose a single man or woman. Exports of recycled paper from the United States which comes back from Asia in the form of cardboard boxes are also off sharply, putting pressure on local recycling and waste pickup companies, as prices for their products slip. China is such a large market for paper, particularly in North America, that you cant hide from that, said Joe Fusco, vice president of Casella Waste Systems in Rutland, Vt., which serves rural New England, upstate New York and part of Pennsylvania. In August, Casella announced it would eliminate several dozen jobs as part of a broader costcutting effort. Youre constantly looking for pennies, hoping it adds up to millions, he said. Its a lot different when you get $50 a ton than $100 a ton.

Exports of steel and iron scrap are down 53 percent this year, compared with 2011.
and aluminum cans this month. On Monday, Caterpillar became the latest company to confirm that after a long boom, business in China is down. I dont think theres any doubt that things got overheated in China, said Ed Rapp, Caterpillars chief financial officer. Our long-term view is still positive but things have slowed considerably in China in 2012. The American outlook for

ERIC SCHULTZ FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

pact is felt beyond those categories. Thats because Chinese demand pumped up prices globally for commodities like coal, paper and many kinds of metal. For example, Thompson Creek Metals does not sell directly to China, but the company was forced to lay off more than 100 miners at its molybdenum mine in central Idaho earlier this month. Weaker demand from

China for the specialty metal has helped drive down prices by 30 percent from where they were a year ago, crimping profit margins at the mine. China is the worlds leading consumer of molybdenum, which is used to strengthen steel and prevent corrosion, said Kevin Loughrey, Thompson Creeks chief executive. China has fueled a lot of the growth in de-

mand for natural resources over the last several years, he said. And its a fungible market. Its like a balloon that you push in one place and it comes out somewhere else. For Cummins, the impact is more direct. China is its fifthlargest market, accounting for 8 percent of the companys $18 billion in revenues last year. And sales there have fallen signifi-

The Dow Minute by Minute

Position of the Dow Jones industrial average at 1-minute intervals yesterday.
Previous close 13,343.51 13,380

Caterpillar Cuts 2012 Forecast for a 2nd Time

By Reuters

13,340

13,300

13,260

13,220

10 a.m.
Source: Bloomberg

Noon

2 p.m.

4 p.m.
THE NEW YORK TIMES

STOCKS & BONDS

Shares Rise Slightly As Uncertainty Prevails

By The Associated Press

Caterpillar, the worlds largest maker of tractors and excavators, slashed its 2012 forecast for the second time this year on Monday and warned that the global economy was slowing faster than it had expected. The caution sign is the latest in a string of forecasts from multinational manufacturers, including General Electric and Honeywell International, that the economic recovery remains tenuous and tepid at best. Caterpillars retail dealers are selling off inventories, rather than buying new machines, forcing the company to idle some production at plants earlier this year with additional shutdowns coming, the companys executives said on Monday. As weve moved through the year, weve seen continued eco-

nomic weakening and uncertainty, Caterpillars chief executive, Douglas R. Oberhelman, said in a statement. Caterpillar does not expect the global economy to begin to improve until the second half of 2013, he added. Caterpillar posted better-thanexpected third-quarter profit on a rebound in American sales of heavy equipment from a 30-year low. Europe and parts of Latin America remain tough regions for Caterpillar. The weakening euro zone is the most significant risk to the companys 2013 outlook, executives said. The company expects sales of mining equipment to slip in 2013 as falling metal and coal prices force companies to pull back on production. Sales of construction equipment should improve next

year, especially in emerging markets. For the third quarter, Caterpillar reported net income of $1.7 billion, or $2.54 a share, compared with $1.14 billion or $1.71 a share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, the company earned $2.26 a share, exceeded analysts forecasts of $2.22, according to Thomson Reuters. Revenue rose 5 percent to $16.45 billion. Analysts had expected $16.77 billion. For 2012, the company now expects to earn $9 to $9.25 a share on sales of $66 billion. The company had previously looked for about $9.60 a share. Analysts had forecast a 2012 profit of $9.40 a share on revenue of $67.64 billion. Caterpillar shares rose $1.22, to $85.08.

The stock market struggled for direction on Monday, with the three main indexes closing barely higher, as investors were underwhelmed by the latest earnings reports. The uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election in two weeks also contributed to investors caution, analysts said. They need to know the playing field before they get out there and play, said Jeff Savage, regional chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank. David Katz, principal and senior portfolio strategist at WeiserMazars Wealth Advisors, said it mattered more that the election is wrapped up than who is elected. One could say the markets will rally stronger if the Republican candidate becomes president, Mr. Katz said. But one way or another, the markets will have direction, and the markets like direction. The Dow Jones industrial aver-

Investors are cautious as they await the third-quarter growth figures.

age ended virtually flat on Monday, inching up 2.38 points, to close at 13,345.89. A late rise erased a 108-point deficit in the Dow. The Standard & Poors 500stock index was also almost unchanged, edging up 0.63 point, to 1,433.82. The Nasdaq composite index rose 11.34 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,016.96. The stock market is awaiting the governments report on Friday on third-quarter growth. But company reports have been signaling that consumers, the main drivers of economic growth, were still restrained. Hasbro, the toy-maker behind brands like My Little Pony and Transformers, posted third-quarter earnings that showed sales for boys products and preschool toys had weakened. The stock slipped 66 cents to $38.39. The VF Corporation, whose brands include Timberland and Wrangler, reported financial results that missed analysts revenue estimates. The stock slid $7.31, hitting $159.46. SunTrust Banks also slipped. Its third-quarter earnings jumped, but that was largely because the bank sold shares it owned in Coca-Cola. The bank,

based in Atlanta, wrestled with higher expenses as well as low interest rates, which crimps profit from lending. The stock lost 96 cents to $27.67. Shares for Caterpillar, the worlds largest construction and mining equipment company, gained $1.22 to $85.08 after the company reported better-thanexpected earnings. But the company warned that it expected lower profit and revenue for the rest of the year. Most companies are reporting better-than-expected profits. But investors want to know how companies are faring on revenue, which can provide a more accurate picture of how a company is performing because profits can vary widely on items like accounting charges and cost-cutting. Mr. Katz described third-quarter revenue results as fair and said the American economy was slow and steady. It is at a snails pace, he said. But its certainly better than what we had. Of the roughly 100 companies in the S.& P. 500 that had reported third-quarter results as of last week, 70 percent have beat analysts estimates for profits, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. But only 42 percent have beaten estimates for revenue. That is the lowest since the first quarter of 2009, when the stock market hit lows during the recession. Company profits this quarter are down 2.3 percent compared with a year earlier. Revenue is down by an average of 0.6 percent. One stock that jumped was Ancestry.com, the genealogy Web site, which announced it would be bought by European private equity firms. The stock popped $2.26 to $31.44. The buyers had offered $32 a share. Apple shares also jumped, rising $24.19 to $634.03. The company is expected to release a new, smaller iPad on Tuesday, to compete with Amazon.coms Kindle Fire and Googles Nexus 7. In the bond market, interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note fell 14/32, to 9810/32, while its yield rose to 1.82 percent, from 1.77 percent late Friday. Following are the results of Mondays Treasury auction of three- and six-month bills:
(000 omitted in dollar figures) 3-Mo. Bills 6-Mo. Bills Price 99.974 99.924 High Rate 0.100 0.150 Investment Rate 0.101 0.152 Low Rate 0.075 0.120 Median Rate 0.090 0.140 Total applied for $149,940,562 $132,497,943 Accepted $32,000,427 $28,001,653 Noncompetitive $650,812 $574,943 Both issues are dated Oct. 25, 2012. The threemonth bills mature on Jan. 24, 2013, and the sixmonth bills mature on April 25, 2013.

B12

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

MARKET GAUGES
S.&P. U 1,433.82 +0.63 500 DOW U 13,345.89 +2.38 INDUSTRIALS NASDAQ U 3,016.96 +11.33 COMPOSITE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD U
1.82% +0.05 $88.65 CRUDE OIL D $1.79

GOLD U $1,725.10 +$2.30 (N.Y.)

$1.3054 THE U +$0.0035 EURO

Standard & Poors 500-stock index

1,500

3-MONTH TREND

Nasdaq Composite
3,300 3,200

3-MONTH TREND

Dow Jones Industrial Average

14,500 14,000 13,500

3-MONTH TREND

+10% 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 5% Aug. Sept. Oct. Aug. Sept. Oct.
When the index follows a white line, it is changing at a constant pace; when it moves into a lighter band, the rate of change is faster.

+10% 3,100

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+ 5%

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STOCK MARKET INDEXES

Index DOW JONES Close Chg % Chg 52-Wk % Chg YTD % Chg Index NASDAQ Close Chg % Chg 52-Wk % Chg YTD % Chg

MOST ACTIVE, GAINERS AND LOSERS

Stock (TICKER) 20 MOST ACTIVE Close Chg % Chg Volume (100) Stock (TICKER) 20 TOP GAINERS 9.55 21.70 28.00 2.91 3.17 24.14 10.17 2.10 5.68 21.46 37.72 9.48 28.95 19.32 15.77 7.08 8.41 42.09 5.44 18.19 +0.11 0.33 0.64 0.01 +0.98 1.26 0.01 0.08 +0.03 +0.19 +0.56 +0.51 +3.06 +0.32 0.07 0.05 +0.50 0.23 0.01 +0.15 +1.2 1317467 1.5 864385 2.2 833626 0.3 739167 +44.7 585021 5.0 418136 0.1 390796 3.7 379223 +0.5 378073 +0.9 364991 +1.5 356509 +5.7 355034 +11.8 340739 +1.7 322584 0.4 315789 0.7 295899 +6.3 285654 0.5 279410 0.2 263653 +0.8 263345 Cascade Co (CASC) 64.97 ZIOPHARM O (ZIOP) 5.02 B Communic (BCOM) 7.94 Peabody En (BTU) 28.95 Internet G (IGLD) 5.17 Cyclacel P (CYCC) 5.76 PetMeds Ex (PETS) 11.15 Ancestry.C (ACOM) 31.44 Affymax In (AFFY) 26.29 MSB Financ (MSBF) 6.49 Volcano Co (VOLC) 28.74 Elmira Sav (ESBK) 21.34 Silicom Lt (SILC) 18.24 Builders F (BLDR) 5.18 OpenTable (OPEN) 46.36 Arch Coal (ACI) 8.41 Genmark Di (GNMK) 8.59 OM Group I (OMG) 20.77 James Rive (JRCC) 5.31 Knightsbri (VLCCF) 6.69 +9.89 +0.67 +1.01 +3.06 +0.50 +0.54 +1.04 +2.26 +1.82 +0.44 +1.89 +1.30 +1.10 +0.31 +2.77 +0.50 +0.51 +1.23 +0.31 +0.39 +18.0 +15.4 +14.6 +11.8 +10.7 +10.3 +10.3 +7.7 +7.4 +7.3 +7.0 +6.5 +6.4 +6.4 +6.4 +6.3 +6.3 +6.3 +6.2 +6.2 20244 20598 121 340739 219 5334 11101 172591 15034 12 15304 3 909 5493 21320 285654 1381 4286 52980 2196 Close Chg % Chg Volume (100) Stock (TICKER) 20 TOP LOSERS Avid Techn (AVID) Monster Be (MNST) Federal-Mo (FDML) BioDeliver (BDSI) Healthways (HWAY) FX Energy (FXEN) Tree.Com I (TREE) Patrick In (PATK) StealthGas (GASS) Vocera Com (VCRA) NII Holdin (NIHD) magicJack (CALL) Manitowoc (MTW) Digital Ci (DCIN) DHT Holdin (DHT) InterOil C (IOC) Midstates (MPO) Natural Gr (NGVC) Nielsen Ho (NLSN) Guaranty F (GFED) 6.69 45.73 7.53 5.14 10.05 5.74 13.96 18.48 6.74 26.76 7.05 21.55 14.28 5.10 5.29 66.28 6.89 20.19 29.65 7.25 1.48 7.59 0.87 0.50 0.86 0.49 1.19 1.37 0.49 1.91 0.50 1.48 0.98 0.32 0.33 4.12 0.42 1.23 1.80 0.44 18.1 14.2 10.4 8.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 8855 218059 5555 6200 5654 7177 616 2846 1622 1827 30402 5268 63983 24 5046 11973 2567 2731 59973 14 Close Chg % Chg Volume (100)

Industrials Transportation Utilities Composite

STANDARD AND POORS

13345.89 5064.48 481.74 4477.07

2.38 17.68 2.02 7.46

0.02 0.35 0.42 0.17

+ 13.02 + 9.24 + 5.21 + 0.89 + 6.42 + 3.67 + 9.53 + 5.79

100 Stocks 500 Stocks Mid-Cap 400 Small-Cap 600

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE

657.67 1433.82 985.47 458.37

+ +

0.56 0.63 1.93 0.43

+ +

0.08 0.04 0.20 0.09

+ + + +

17.76 15.79 14.42 16.64

+15.22 +14.01 +12.09 +10.43

Nasdaq 100 Composite Industrials Banks Insurance Other Finance Telecommunications Computer
OTHER INDEXES

2694.56 3016.96 2523.35 1865.06 4704.40 4053.55 191.67 1586.16 2419.87 14958.26 3041.72 820.52 188.07 365.51 50.42 228.34

+ + + + + + + + +

16.24 11.33 6.79 6.94 13.02 8.62 0.41 16.20 11.33 1.61 1.86 0.48 2.28 0.59 0.02 1.26

+ + + + + + + + +

0.61 0.38 0.27 0.37 0.28 0.21 0.22 1.03 0.47 0.01 0.06 0.06 1.22 0.16 0.04 0.55

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + +

15.35 14.39 12.29 20.54 13.05 17.70 1.42 12.64 9.04 15.27 15.12 15.17 1.73 1.77 29.58 4.46

+18.30 +15.81 +16.38 +15.28 + 9.99 +17.64 2.67 +15.05 + 6.21 +13.41 +12.84 +10.74 + 4.11 + 0.29 +28.03 + 5.58

NYSE Comp. Tech/Media/Telecom Energy Financial Healthcare

8329.19 6046.69 12879.30 4909.42 8014.87

+ + + +

5.04 14.63 58.89 13.64 2.03

+ + + +

0.06 0.24 0.46 0.28 0.03

+ 12.09 +11.40 + 8.76 +10.24 + 4.98 + 3.78 + 18.38 +20.84 + 18.21 +13.76

American Exch Wilshire 5000 Value Line Arith Russell 2000 Phila Gold & Silver Phila Semiconductor KBW Bank Phila Oil Service

Bank of Am (BAC) General El (GE) Microsoft (MSFT) Sirius XM (SIRI) SUPERVALU (SVU) Nexen Inc (NXY) Ford Motor (F) Advanced M (AMD) Sprint Nex (S) Intel Corp (INTC) Citigroup (C) Alpha Natu (ANR) Peabody En (BTU) Facebook I (FB) Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) Regions Fi (RF) Arch Coal (ACI) JPMorgan C (JPM) Micron Tec (MU) Cisco Syst (CSCO)

S&P 100 STOCKS

Stock (TICKER)
3M Co (MMM) Abbott Lab (ABT) Accenture (ACN) Allstate C (ALL) Altria Gro (MO) Amazon.Com (AMZN) American E (AEP) American E (AXP) Amgen Inc (AMGN) Anadarko P (APC) Apache Cor (APA) Apple Inc (AAPL) AT&T Inc (T) Baker Hugh (BHI) Bank of Am (BAC) Bank of Ne (BK) Baxter Int (BAX) Berkshire (BRKb) Boeing Co (BA) Bristol-My (BMY) Capital On (COF) Caterpilla (CAT) Chevron Co (CVX) Cisco Syst (CSCO) Citigroup (C)

52-Week Price Range 1-Day Low Close () High Close Chg

75.49 52.05 51.08 24.50 26.80 166.97 36.97 44.70 54.59 56.42 77.93 363.32 27.41 37.08 4.92 17.67 47.55 72.60 62.12 30.10 39.30 78.25 92.29 14.96 23.30

1-Yr YTD Chg % Chg

Stock (TICKER)
Coca-Cola (KO) Colgate-Pa (CL) Comcast Co (CMCSA) ConocoPhil (COP) Costco Who (COST) CVS Carema (CVS) Dell Inc (DELL) Devon Ener (DVN) Dow Chemic (DOW) E. I. du P (DD) eBay Inc (EBAY) Eli Lilly (LLY) EMC Corp (EMC) Emerson El (EMR) Exelon Cor (EXC) Exxon Mobi (XOM) FedEx Corp (FDX) Ford Motor (F) Freeport-M (FCX) General Dy (GD) General El (GE) Gilead Sci (GILD) Goldman Sa (GS) Google Inc (GOOG) H.J. Heinz (HNZ)

52-Week Price Range 1-Day Low Close () High Close Chg

32.37 86.19 20.90 50.41 78.81 35.09 9.33 54.01 24.42 43.06 28.15 35.46 21.25 43.58 34.54 73.90 76.06 8.82 31.08 60.60 14.68 34.45 86.90 556.52 49.75

1-Yr YTD Chg % Chg

Stock (TICKER)
Halliburto (HAL) Hewlett-Pa (HPQ) Home Depot (HD) Honeywell (HON) Intel Corp (INTC) Internatio (IBM) Johnson & (JNJ) JPMorgan C (JPM) Lockheed M (LMT) Lowes Com (LOW) MasterCard (MA) McDonalds (MCD) Medtronic (MDT) Merck & Co (MRK) Metlife In (MET) Microsoft (MSFT) Mondelez I (MDLZ) Monsanto C (MON) Morgan Sta (MS) National O (NOV) News Corp (NWSA) Nike Inc (NKE) Norfolk So (NSC) Occidental (OXY) Oracle Cor (ORCL)

52-Week Price Range 1-Day Low Close () High Close Chg

26.28 14.02 34.58 48.82 21.22 177.06 61.05 28.28 72.37 20.34 324.58 85.92 33.11 32.82 27.60 24.30 22.31 67.09 12.26 59.07 15.93 85.10 62.82 76.59 24.91

1-Yr YTD Chg % Chg

Stock (TICKER)
PepsiCo In (PEP) Pfizer Inc (PFE) Philip Mor (PM) Procter & (PG) Qualcomm I (QCOM) Raytheon C (RTN) Schlumberg (SLB) Simon Prop (SPG) Southern C (SO) Starbucks (SBUX) Target Cor (TGT) Texas Inst (TXN) Time Warne (TWX) U.S. Banco (USB) Union Paci (UNP) United Par (UPS) United Tec (UTX) UnitedHeal (UNH) Verizon Co (VZ) Visa Inc (V) Wal-Mart S (WMT) Walgreen C (WAG) Walt Disne (DIS) Wells Farg (WFC) Williams C (WMB)

52-Week Price Range 1-Day Low Close () High Close Chg

61.50 18.15 67.75 59.07 49.78 42.00 59.12 115.21 42.11 40.55 47.25 26.06 32.09 23.72 94.24 66.46 70.41 43.42 35.32 88.78 55.68 28.53 33.28 23.19 23.70

1-Yr YTD Chg % Chg

95.46 92.53 0.41 + 14.97 + 13.2 72.47 65.81 0.34 + 22.19 + 17.0 71.79 67.83 + 0.08 + 16.79 + 27.4 42.81 42.26 + 0.25 + 57.10 + 54.2 36.29 32.92 + 0.29 + 19.93 + 11.0 264.11 233.78 6.22 0.43 + 35.1 45.41 44.95 0.03 + 14.87 + 8.8 61.42 56.74 0.12 + 17.09 + 20.3 89.95 87.80 + 0.64 + 49.85 + 36.7 88.70 69.23 1.11 12.41 9.3 112.09 85.53 1.34 9.71 5.6 705.07 634.03 + 24.19 + 61.38 + 56.6 38.58 35.26 0.06 + 21.04 + 16.6 61.90 44.02 0.73 19.21 9.5 10.10 9.55 + 0.11 + 47.83 + 71.8 25.26 24.65 0.03 + 19.08 + 23.8 63.05 61.98 + 0.06 + 13.08 + 25.3 90.93 88.51 0.75 + 14.28 + 16.0 77.83 73.70 0.31 + 14.10 + 0.5 36.34 34.04 + 0.23 + 4.55 3.4 61.33 60.00 0.75 + 38.60 + 41.9 116.95 85.08 + 1.22 2.64 6.1 118.53 112.74 0.64 + 6.83 + 6.0 21.30 18.19 + 0.15 + 4.66 + 0.6 38.72 37.72 + 0.56 + 24.49 + 43.4

40.66 37.23 0.17 + 9.19 + 6.4 110.97 107.69 0.05 + 14.66 + 16.6 37.60 37.03 + 0.08 + 52.23 + 56.2 59.68 57.04 0.41 + 4.17 + 2.7 104.43 95.00 + 0.22 + 11.37 + 14.0 49.23 46.26 + 0.06 + 30.13 + 13.4 18.36 9.59 + 0.04 37.07 34.4 76.34 61.37 0.63 4.72 1.0 36.08 29.74 0.12 + 9.18 + 3.4 53.98 49.76 + 0.42 + 10.21 + 8.7 50.94 50.15 + 0.18 + 56.13 + 65.3 53.99 52.28 0.58 + 37.33 + 25.8 30.00 25.04 + 0.46 + 4.20 + 16.2 53.78 48.22 0.03 + 1.69 + 3.5 45.45 36.84 0.17 14.94 15.1 93.67 92.19 + 0.04 + 15.05 + 8.8 97.19 91.48 0.63 + 15.30 + 9.5 13.05 10.17 0.01 17.05 5.5 48.96 40.58 0.60 + 10.93 + 10.3 74.54 67.15 0.02 + 2.80 + 1.1 23.18 21.70 0.33 + 33.05 + 21.2 70.39 66.38 0.21 + 60.07 + 62.2 128.72 122.77 0.85 + 20.26 + 35.8 774.38 678.67 3.12 + 14.93 + 5.1 58.56 57.71 0.00 + 8.17 + 6.8

40.43 34.56 0.42 + 3.16 + 0.1 30.00 14.71 + 0.23 42.04 42.9 63.20 62.04 + 0.15 + 68.31 + 47.6 63.48 62.28 0.21 + 21.45 + 14.6 29.27 21.46 + 0.20 10.69 11.5 211.79 194.40 + 1.04 + 7.03 + 5.7 72.74 71.78 0.08 + 12.54 + 9.5 46.49 42.09 0.23 + 25.94 + 26.6 94.90 92.77 0.12 + 19.86 + 14.7 33.29 32.71 + 0.23 + 47.81 + 28.9 486.08 466.93 3.13 + 40.05 + 25.2 102.22 88.45 0.27 4.19 11.8 44.79 42.49 + 0.49 + 23.91 + 11.1 48.00 46.48 0.55 + 39.37 + 23.3 39.55 36.14 + 0.21 + 7.85 + 15.9 32.95 28.00 0.64 + 3.09 + 7.9 28.48 27.00 0.01 + 17.24 + 10.5 92.20 88.87 + 0.18 + 18.76 + 26.8 21.19 17.45 0.08 + 2.53 + 15.3 89.95 80.93 + 0.23 + 23.14 + 19.0 25.50 24.73 0.18 + 43.78 + 38.6 114.81 94.48 1.97 + 0.14 2.0 78.50 66.83 + 1.19 5.74 8.3 106.68 82.81 1.54 4.53 11.6 33.81 30.80 + 0.32 4.11 + 20.1

73.66 69.60 0.28 + 11.75 + 4.9 26.09 25.60 0.16 + 34.31 + 18.3 94.13 89.20 + 1.08 + 27.43 + 13.7 69.97 68.50 0.07 + 3.38 + 2.7 68.87 58.68 0.07 + 12.80 + 7.3 58.68 55.65 0.22 + 26.56 + 15.0 80.78 73.16 0.84 + 8.58 + 7.1 164.17 152.94 0.60 + 26.71 + 18.6 48.59 46.55 0.09 + 5.94 + 0.6 62.00 45.30 0.38 + 7.63 1.5 65.80 62.21 0.02 + 13.85 + 21.5 34.24 27.79 0.02 8.77 4.5 46.59 44.99 + 0.06 + 29.39 + 24.5 35.46 34.17 0.06 + 34.58 + 26.3 129.27 124.34 + 0.57 + 28.24 + 17.4 81.79 71.56 0.74 + 2.14 2.2 87.50 77.83 0.16 + 3.00 + 6.5 60.75 56.54 + 0.88 + 17.99 + 11.6 48.77 44.77 0.39 + 19.64 + 11.6 143.10 139.00 0.97 + 48.77 + 36.9 77.60 75.65 + 0.03 + 32.91 + 26.6 37.34 36.33 + 0.54 + 6.41 + 9.9 53.40 51.79 0.11 + 47.30 + 38.1 36.60 34.50 + 0.16 + 31.13 + 25.2 37.56 34.97 0.00 + 41.99 + 29.7

Prices shown are for regular trading for the New York Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange which runs from 9:30 a.m., Eastern time, through the close of the Pacific Exchange, at 4:30 p.m. For the Nasdaq stock market, it is through 4 p.m. Close Last trade of the day in regular trading. + or indicates stocks that reached a new 52-week high or low. Change Difference between last trade and previous days price in regular trading. or indicates stocks that rose or fell at least 4 percent. indicates stocks that traded 1 percent or more of their outstanding shares. n Stock was a new issue in the last year.

FINRA TRACE CORPORATE BOND DATA

Yields
FINRA-BLOOMBERG CORPORATE BOND INDEXES

GOVERNMENT BONDS
Market Breadth
All Investment High Issues Grade Yield Total Issues Traded Advances Declines Unchanged 52 Week High 52 Week Low Dollar Volume* 5842 2376 3159 185 396 85 15516 4134 1709 2305 57 270 50 10413 1506 602 736 115 121 32 4391 Conv 202 65 118 13 5 3 711

52-week Total Returns

FINRA-BLOOMBERG CORPORATE BOND INDEXES

Yield Curve
Yest. 1-mo. ago 1-yr. ago

Key Rates
4% 3 2 1
Maturity
10-year Treas. 2-year Treas. Prime Rate Fed Funds

Most Recent Issues

Mat. Date Rate Bid 0.10 0.14 99.89 99.26 98.45 96.09 Ask 0.09 0.14 99.90 99.27 98.47 96.12 Chg .00 .00 0.16 0.28 0.25 Yield 0.10 0.14 0.31 0.78 1.80 2.95

4% 3 2 1 0 3 6 2
Months

10% 8 6

high yield +6.54%

+15% +10 + 5

high yield +13.77%

T-BILLS 3-mo. Jan 13 6-mo. Apr 13

4 2 0 invest. grade +3.18% 2011 2012 0 5 invest. grade +10.03% 2011 2012

End of day data. Activity as reported to FINRA TRACE. Market breadth represents activity in all TRACE eligible publicly traded securities. Shown below are the most active fixed-coupon bonds ranked by par value traded. Investment grade or high-yield is determined using credit ratings as outlined in FINRA rules. C Yield is unavailable because of issues call criteria. *Par value in millions.
Source: FINRA TRACE data. Reference information from Reuters DataScope Data. Credit ratings from Moodys, Standard & Poors and Fitch. Issuer Name provided by S&P Capital IQ

BONDS & NOTES 2-yr. Sep 14 5-yr. Sep 17 | 10-yr. Aug 22 1| 30-yr. Aug 42 2}

0 30 2011 2012
Source: Thomson Reuters

5 10
Years

TREASURY INFLATION BONDS [ 107-07 5-yr. Apr 17 [ 108-22 10-yr. Jul 22 2 142-12 20-yr. Jan 29 } 109-04 30-yr. Feb 42

107-10 0-05 -1.43 108-27 +0-00 -0.73 142-31 0-03 -0.09 109-28 0-03 0.42 Source: Thomson Reuters

Most Active
Issuer Name (SYMBOL) INVESTMENT GRADE Coupon% Maturity

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Credit Rating Moodys S&P Fitch Price High Low Last Chg Yld% Foreign Currency in Dollars AMERICAS Argentina (Peso) Bolivia (Boliviano) Brazil (Real) Canada (Dollar) Chile (Peso) Colombia (Peso) Dom. Rep. (Peso) El Salvador (Colon) Guatamala (Quetzal) Honduras (Lempira) Mexico (Peso) Nicaragua (Cordoba) Paraguay (Guarani) Peru (New Sol) Uruguay (New Peso) Venezuela (Bolivar) EUROPE Britain (Pound) Czech Rep (Koruna) Denmark (Krone) Europe (Euro) Hungary (Forint) Dollars in Foreign Currency Foreign Currency in Dollars ASIA/PACIFIC Australia (Dollar) China (Yuan) Hong Kong (Dollar) India (Rupee) Japan (Yen) Malaysia (Ringgit) New Zealand (Dollar) Pakistan (Rupee) Philippines (Peso) Singapore (Dollar) So. Korea (Won) Taiwan (Dollar) Thailand (Baht) Vietnam (Dong) Dollars in Foreign Currency

Goldman Sachs Group (Gs.Aeh) Bank Of America (Bac.Ahk) Wal-Mart Stores (Wmt.In) JPMorgan Chase & Co (Jpm) Citigroup (C.Aly) Walgreen Co (Wag) Citigroup (C.Gor) Anheuser Busch Inbev Worldwide (Bud) Bancolombia S A (Cib) Bbva U S Sr S A Unipersonal (Bbv)
HIGH YIELD

5.750 5.700 0.750 3.250 4.500 4.400 6.375 2.500 5.125 4.664

Jan 22 Jan 22 Oct 13 Sep 22 Jan 22 Sep 42 Aug 14 Jul 22 Sep 22 Oct 15

A3 Baa2 Aa2 A2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa2 A3 Baa3 Baa3

A A Aa A A A Bbb Bbb+

118.135 119.224 100.496 103.856 111.678 103.556 109.290 103.092 106.700 102.611

112.795 117.817 100.359 101.318 108.760 102.230 108.342 100.434 104.000 101.081

115.627 118.436 100.496 101.820 109.368 102.968 108.709 102.917 104.000 101.173

0.719 0.574 0.031 0.490 0.528 0.190 0.441 1.088 1.590 0.088

3.735 3.363 0.253 3.036 3.312 4.224 1.447 2.165 4.615 4.237

Supervalu (Svu.Go) Advanced Micro Devices (Amd.Aa) Overseas Shipholding Group (Osg.Gf) Rbs Global, . (Rbsg.Gn) Clear Channel Communications (Ccmo) Berry Plastics (Apo) Arch Coal (Aci.Aa) Supervalu (Svu.Gn) Seagate Hdd Cayman (Stx.Aj) Associated Matls Llc (Amhh)
CONVERTIBLES

8.000 7.750 8.125 8.500 9.000 9.750 8.750 7.500 7.750 9.125

May 16 Aug 20 Mar 18 May 18 Mar 21 Jan 21 Aug 16 Nov 14 Dec 18 Nov 17

Caa1 Ba3 Caa2 B3 Caa1 Caa1 B3 Caa1 Ba1 Caa1

Ccc+ B+ Ccc B+ Ccc+ Bb+

99.110 89.000 55.000 110.250 91.000 115.938 103.500 100.000 110.000 99.625

91.250 81.750 30.250 110.000 89.688 115.500 100.610 96.500 108.088 99.250

94.250 82.092 33.500 110.000 90.500 115.500 101.812 97.000 109.188 99.500

4.000 4.658 16.500 1.554 0.000 0.500 1.438 1.500 1.312 0.500

9.978 11.265 37.732 4.361 10.747 5.799 7.998 9.129 4.908 9.251

.2111 .1437 .4941 1.0083 .0021 .0006 .0254 .1144 .1276 .0508 .0778 .0418 .0002 .3874 .0509 .2331

4.7375 6.9600 2.0238 .9918 476.49 1807.9 39.3800 8.7425 7.8340 19.7000 12.8510 23.9014 4465.0 2.5810 19.6500 4.2893

One Dollar in Euros

0.85 euros 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 11 2012
Norway (Krone) Poland (Zloty) Russia (Ruble) Sweden (Krona) Switzerland (Franc) Turkey (Lira) .1764 5.6697 .3180 3.1442 .0322 31.0940 .1517 6.5899 1.0787 .9270 .5575 1.7937

$1 = 0.7658

1.0320 .1599 .1290 .0187 .0125 .3278 .8174 .0105 .0242 .8189 .0009 .0342 .0326 .0000

.9690 6.2543 7.7498 53.5500 79.9400 3.0510 1.2234 95.4000 41.3300 1.2211 1104.1 29.2550 30.7100 20830

One Dollar in Yen

84 yen 82 80 78 76 74 11 2012
Lebanon (Pound) Saudi Arabia (Riyal) So. Africa (Rand) U.A.E (Dirham) .0007 .2667 .1158 .2723 1500.0 3.7500 8.6376 3.6729

$1 = 79.95

1.6012 .6245 .0525 19.0370 .1751 5.7094 1.3054 .7660 .0047 214.16

MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6529 .3770 Egypt (Pound) .1639 6.1000 Iran (Rial) .0001 12240 Israel (Shekel) .2623 3.8128 Jordan (Dinar) 1.4144 .7070 Kenya (Shilling) .0118 85.1000 Kuwait (Dinar) 3.5591 .2810

Prices as of 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time. Source: Thomson Reuters

Intel (Intc.Ge) Advanced Micro Devices (Amd.Gg) Carrizo Oil & Gas (Crzo.Ga) Peabody Energy (Btu.Gh) Spartan Stores (Sptn.Gb) Amgen (Amgn.Gn) Novellus Sys (Lrcx3854912) Cemex S A B De C V (Cx) Rayonier Trs Hldgs (Ryn.Gc) Alpha Nat Res (Anr.Ga)

3.250 6.000 4.375 4.750 3.375 0.375 2.625 3.750 4.500 2.375

Aug 39 May 15 Jun 28 Dec 66 May 27 Feb 13 May 41 Mar 18 Aug 15 Apr 15

A2 N.A. N.A. Ba3 N.A. Baa1 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

B+ Bb N.A. Bbb

123.000 97.250 100.750 92.734 99.500 115.328 123.250 106.325 152.250 91.125

120.500 91.043 100.700 88.750 99.062 113.500 122.427 105.265 151.059 90.750

123.000 92.500 100.700 91.750 99.500 114.834 122.801 105.265 152.250 91.125

2.200 3.500 0.425 1.750 0.000 1.271 1.449 0.808 1.854 0.625

2.120 N.A. N.A. 5.208 3.419 48.078 1.624 2.693 10.907 6.308

FUTURES
Future Corn Soybeans Wheat Live Cattle Hogs-Lean Cocoa Coffee Sugar-World Gold Silver Hi Grade Copper Light Sweet Crude Heating Oil Natural Gas Monetary units per Exchange quantity CBT CBT CBT CME CME NYBOT NYBOT NYBOT COMX COMX COMX NYMX NYMX NYMX /bushel /bushel /bushel /lb /lb $/ton /lb /lb $/oz /oz /lb $/bbl $/gal $/mil.btu Lifetime High Low 849.00 1781.50 977.50 135.55 86.00 3630.00 291.95 25.39 386.75 1092.75 629.50 121.90 70.05 2050.00 153.70 14.70 Date Dec Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Feb Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Dec Open High Low Settle Change 0.25 + 12.75 + 5.75 0.00 0.95 + 27.00 + 2.85 0.17 + 2.30 + 15.50 1.55 1.79 0.05 0.17 Open Interest 577,086 207,006 237,417 129,339 100,772 86,208 79,631 375,938 327,931 83,002 93,843 388,468 81,648 262,932

Crude Oil
$120 110 100 90 80 70 11 2012 $88.65 a barrel

CONSUMER RATES

Yesterdays rate 1-year range

Change from last week Up Flat Down

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

12 761.00 767.00 758.75 761.25 13 1532.75 1561.25 1529.00 1549.25 12 873.00 884.50 871.50 878.25 12 127.83 127.98 127.10 127.28 12 79.63 79.70 78.40 78.68 12 2475.00 2526.00 2460.00 2516.00 12 162.50 165.70 161.40 164.50 13 20.33 20.50 19.93 20.06 12 1722.70 1730.80 1714.40 1726.30 12 3199.00 3247.50 3171.00 3225.20 12 363.75 365.25 360.85 362.20 12 90.05 91.27 88.57 88.65 12 3.10 3.13 3.06 3.07 12 4.07 4.09 3.89 3.90

Home Mortgages
Federal funds Prime rate 15-yr fixed 15-yr fixed jumbo 30-yr fixed 30-yr fixed jumbo 5/1 adj. rate 5/1 adj. rate jumbo 1-year adj. rate

Year Yesterday Ago

0.25% 3.25 2.86 3.34 3.49 4.02 2.98 2.82 4.82 0.25% 3.25 3.47 4.15 4.20 4.85 3.02 3.17 2.95

1934.60 766.00 4951.00 347.50 448.65 308.85 143.13 59.00 3.35 2.30 11.40 3.06

0%

8 5-YEAR HISTORY

Real Economic Growth

Change from previous quarter, annualized; seasonally adj.

+5%

Key to exchanges: CBT-Chicago Board of Trade. CME-Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CMX-Comex division of NYM. KC-Kansas City Board of Trade. NYBOT-New York Board of Trade. NYM-New York Mercantile Exchange. Open interest is the number of contracts outstanding. Source: Thomson Reuters

2nd quarter 12+1.3% 1st quarter 12 +2.0

MUTUAL FUNDS SPOTLIGHT: REGIONAL AND EMERGING MARKETS

10

07

12
Fund Name (TICKER) Type

% Total Returns YTD 1 Yr

Exp. Assets (mil.$) Fund Name (TICKER) Type

% Total Returns YTD 1 Yr

Exp. Assets (mil.$)

5 Yr* Ratio

5 Yr* Ratio

Consumer Price Index

Change from previous year 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

+6%

LARGEST FUNDS DFA Emerging Markets Value I (DFEVX) Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Instl (LZEMX) Oppenheimer Developing Markets Y (ODVYX) American Funds New World A (NEWFX) DFA Emerging Markets Core Equity I (DFCEX) T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock (PRMSX) Vanguard Emerging Mkts Stock Idx Adm (VEMAX) GMO Emerging Markets VI (GEMMX) T. Rowe Price New Asia (PRASX) Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities I (HIEMX) Matthews Pacific Tiger Investor (MAPTX) Matthews Asian Growth & Inc Investor (MACSX) DFA Emerging Markets Small Cap I (DEMSX) Eaton Vance Parametric Tx-Mgd Em Mkts (EITEX) DFA Emerging Markets I (DFEMX) Matthews Asia Dividend Investor (MAPIX) Vanguard European Stock Index Adm (VEUSX) Fidelity Latin America (FLATX) Fidelity Emerging Markets (FEMKX) BNY Mellon Emerging Markets M (MEMKX) T. Rowe Price Latin America (PRLAX) Templeton Developing Markets A (TEDMX) Harding Loevner Emerging Markets (HLEMX) Average performance for all such funds Number of funds for period EM EM EM EM EM EM EM EM PJ EM PJ PJ EM EM EM DP ES LS EM EM LS EM EM +12.9 +16.4 +18.4 +14.9 +13.5 +14.7 +12.3 +10.9 +17.6 +15.9 +16.6 +21.7 +17.0 +14.9 +12.7 +17.6 +15.9 +2.4 +8.9 +10.5 +5.9 +9.3 +18.0 +9.9 +14.2 +15.2 +12.0 +11.4 +12.3 +11.3 +9.3 +16.4 +16.7 +15.9 +20.1 +13.6 +12.0 +11.6 +16.0 +10.8 +3.5 +7.2 +8.2 +2.8 +9.7 +17.4 1.8 +1.5 +3.6 0.3 +0.1 3.7 2.0 3.4 +0.3 +3.8 +4.0 +5.2 +1.1 0.4 0.1 +7.6 4.8 2.1 6.1 1.1 1.8 3.1 1.0 2.7 167 0.60 1.11 1.02 1.07 0.65 1.27 0.19 0.87 0.95 1.37 1.13 1.11 0.79 0.96 0.60 1.08 0.13 1.01 1.00 1.41 1.23 1.73 1.53 16,649 12,847 11,931 11,814 8,528 7,167 6,835 5,072 4,599 4,493 2,991 2,840 2,836 2,816 2,776 2,479 2,477 2,341 2,238 2,229 1,780 1,751 1,695

LEADERS Invesco Asia Pacific Growth A (ASIAX) Matthews Asian Growth & Inc Investor (MACSX) T. Rowe Price Inst Africa & Middle East (TRIAX) T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East (TRAMX) Templeton China World Adv (TACWX) Templeton Frontier Markets A (TFMAX) Harding Loevner Emerging Mkts Advisor (HLEMX) Virtus Emerging Markets Opportunities I (HIEMX) T. Rowe Price New Asia (PRASX) Putnam Europe Equity A (PEUGX) Matthews Asia Dividend Investor (MAPIX) Invesco Developing Markets A (GTDDX) PJ PJ EM EM CH EM EM EM PJ ES DP EM +19.6 +21.7 +16.2 +15.7 +12.2 +20.1 +18.0 +15.9 +17.6 +20.0 +17.6 +15.7 +21.7 +20.1 +18.8 +18.3 +17.8 +17.6 +17.4 +16.7 +16.4 +16.3 +16.0 +16.0 2.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 +1.3 +1.7 +2.4 +2.6 +2.8 +3.2 +3.5 +3.6 +4.1 +5.2 NA 5.7 0.8 NA 1.0 +3.8 +0.3 4.5 +7.6 +1.6 0.4 9.0 7.1 5.3 1.9 8.8 7.8 2.3 1.8 NA 5.8 5.5 1.56 1.11 1.25 1.54 1.57 2.15 1.53 1.37 0.95 1.47 1.08 1.46 0.56 2.72 1.15 1.63 2.32 1.51 2.14 1.23 1.23 1.35 1.13 2.18 440 2,840 143 150 369 117 1,695 4,493 4,599 137 2,479 1,370 299 103 375 140 117 75 53 85 1,780 71 161 245

Home Equity
$75K line good credit* $75K line excel. credit* $75K loan good credit* $75K loan excel. credit* 4.20% 4.19 5.17 5.11 4.32% 4.24 5.63 5.45

Sept. 12 Aug. 12

+2.0% +1.7

07

12
+10%

Retail Sales
Change from previous year

Auto Loan Rates

36-mo. used car 60-mo. new car 3.64% 2.95 4.49% 4.33

0%

Sept. 12 Aug. 12

+5.4% +5.0

20

07

12
12%

Unemployment
Percent unemployed Seasonally adjusted 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

CDs and Money Market Rates

Money-market $10K min. money-mkt 6-month CD 1-year CD 2-year CD 5-year IRA CD 0.50% 0.52 0.47 0.72 0.85 1.42 0.51% 0.60 0.48 0.76 0.87 1.59

Sept. 12 Aug. 12

7.8% 8.1

07

12
2.0

+13.2 +10.6 175 175

LAGGARDS DFA Japanese Small Company I (DFJSX) JS 0.2 Templeton BRIC C (TPBRX) EM +3.5 Fidelity Japan (FJPNX) JS +3.4 Nomura Partners The Japan S (SJPNX) JS +2.5 BlackRock Latin America Inv C (MCLTX) LS +3.4 Metzler/Payden European Emerging Mkts MPYMX) ES +15.0 Pioneer Emerging Markets R (PEMRX) EM +5.5 Matthews Japan Investor (MJFOX) JS +6.3 T. Rowe Price Latin America (PRLAX) LS +5.9 Fidelity Advisor Latin America A (FLFAX) LS +2.1 T. Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) JS +6.4 ING Russia A (LETRX) ES +13.6

Housing Starts
Annual Rate, in millions Seasonally adjusted

*Annualized. Leaders and Laggards are among funds with at least $50 million in assets, and include no more than one class of any fund. Todays fund types: CH-China Region. DP-Divers. Pacific Asia. EI-India Equity. EM-Divers. Emerging Mkt.. ES-Europe Stock. JS-Japan Stock. LS-Latin America Stock. PJ-Pacific Asia ex-Japan. NA-Not Available. YTD-Year to date. Spotlight tables rotate on a 2-week basis. Source: Morningstar

Sept. 12 Aug. 12
Source: Bankrate.com

0.87 0.76

0.0

07

12

ONLINE: MORE PRICES AND ANALYSIS

*Credit ratings: good, FICO score 660-749; excellent, FICO score 750-850.

Source: Bloomberg

Information on all United States stocks, plus bonds, mutual funds, commodities and foreign stocks along with analysis of industry sectors and stock indexes: nytimes.com/markets

B13

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

The Playoffs

A Pounding, Then a Soaking

DAVID J. PHILLIP/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Giants Buster Posey and Sergio Romo amid raindrops after the final out. Romo was summoned from the bullpen with two outs to face Matt Holliday; he retired him on a popup for the final out.
By ANDREW KEH

SAN FRANCISCO Overcoming long odds and undermining common sense, the San Francisco Giants steamrolled over the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night to GIANTS 9 claim a place in the CARDINALS 0 World Series. All month long, San Francisco the Giants wobbled wins series, 4-3 on the precipice of elimination. They earned a place in the National League Championship Series only after winning three consecutive games away from home against the Cincinnati Reds during a best-of-five division series. They forced a seventh game in this round after fighting back from a

Skirting Elimination Again, Giants Oust Cardinals in the Rain

three-games-to-one deficit against the Cardinals. Now the Giants will compete for the World Series title after surging to a 9-0 victory in Game 7 before an announced crowd of 43,056 at AT&T Park, stamping through a game that featured all the tension of a bayside stroll, the manic energy of a rock concert and a steady rain that turned to a downpour in the ninth. The Cardinals came to San Francisco no strangers to high-stakes baseball, either. They won four elimination games

World Series Game 1

Detroit at San Francisco

8 p.m. Wednesday TV: Fox

last season on their way to a World Series championship, and they entered Mondays game with two elimination game victories this postseason. But

they could muster only one run over their final three games combined before collapsing unceremoniously in front the overjoyed Giants fans. For the Giants, the victory capped what felt like a two-day party at their home stadium. After becoming only the second team to win six postseason elimination games in a year, they will return to their home field Wednesday night to face the Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of the World Series. The excitement and wonderment and

disbelief Monday night seemed to reach a fever pitch during the Giants fiverun, third-inning. With the bases loaded and no outs, Hunter Pence came up against reliever Joe Kelly and conjured up a strange, swerving line drive that wrong-footed shortstop Pete Kozma. The ball whipped an s-shaped course off his splintering bat, curling through the air, past Kozmas glove and into the outfield, where it was bobbled by center fielder Jon Jay for a double. The bases cleared. The crowd boiled over. The party raged on. Brandon Belt reached on an infield single and Gregor Blanco walked, loadContinued on Page B17

ANALYSIS

Jets Lack Identity But Not Time

By BEN SHPIGEL

Those dark years must be marked by the absence of a winner.

CHRISTIAN PRUDHOMME, the director of the Tour de France

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. When it was suggested to Rex Ryan that an outsider might view some of the Jets offensive playcalls Sunday as confounding, he returned to his defensive roots. Ryan mentioned how the team gained more than 400 yards, how it rushed effectively at times (before halftime, mostly) and how it passed successfully at others (after halftime, mainly). From the outside, I think thats the perspective I would have, Ryan said. There is, of course, an inherent flaw in that answer. At the risk of stating the obvious, Ryan is not an outsider. He is very much an insider, and he has no incentive to express any dissatisfaction with some of the strategic decisions that pertain to Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow. Besides, the Jets essentially outplayed New England, exposing the Patriots vulnerabilities, before losing, 2926, in overtime. I just realize how close we are, Ryan said. The Jets may indeed be close, but close to what, precisely, remains a mystery. Despite their improved play over the past few weeks, the Jets appear disjointed: they run when they should pass, they pass when they should Continued on Page B14

SAM MANCHESTER/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Say Goodbye to 7 Yellow Jerseys

By JULIET MACUR

The International Cycling Union announced Monday that it would not appeal the United States Anti-Doping Agencys ruling to bar Lance Armstrong for life from Olympic sports for doping and for playing an instrumental role in the team-organized doping on his Tour de France-winning cycling squads. That decision to waive the right to take Armstrongs case to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, the highest court in sports, formally stripped Armstrong of the seven Tour titles he won from 1999 to 2005. Lance Armstrong has no place in
OLIVER MULTHAUP/E.P.A.

cycling; he deserves to be forgotten in cycling, Pat McQuaid, the president of the cycling union, known as U.C.I., said in a news conference in Switzerland. Something like this must never happen again. McQuaid said he was sickened by the facts in the 202-page report the antidoping agency made public two weeks ago regarding the evidence it had in the Armstrong case, and called it mind-boggling how former teammates like the five-time national time-trial champion David Zabriskie were pushed to use performance-enhancing drugs. McQuaid said that Armstrongs teams had a win at all costs atti-

tude fueled by deceit, intimidation, coercion and evasion, and that all of the evidence was there to prove that Armstrong doped. He added that he was sorry the cycling union had not caught Armstrong and his teammates red handed so he could have thrown them out of the sport. Armstrong, who has vehemently denied ever doping, declined to comment Monday. But in the past, he said that he, his teammates and those riders who competed against him would always know he won those seven Tours. In his short biography on his Twitter page, he still calls himself the seven-time Tour de Continued on Page B16

B14

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

PRO BASKETBALL

Anthony Revels in Homecoming, but Knicks Lose

By NATE TAYLOR

SYRACUSE The six young boys were as close to the court as they could get. Some had their phones out in hopes of capturing a photograph of 76ERS 98 Carmelo AnthoKNICKS 90 ny, while others pointed to him in excitement during the Knicks pregame warm-ups. The boys had not seen Anthony play at the Carrier Dome before, but they had been told by many about him and what he did for Syracuse University. Anthony, who in 2003 led Syracuse to its only national title, was the first player to be introduced before the Knicks lost to the Philadelphia 76ers, 98-90, in a preseason game Monday night. The fans, most of whom wore Anthony jerseys or Syracuse apparel, rose to their feet to give him an ovation. Of the six preseason games the Knicks will play, this was the one added to the schedule late that Anthony looked forward to most. Its just great to be back playing in this building once again, Anthony said. Tonight was just to give something back to the fans. With the start of the regular

season 10 days away, Anthony wanted to have fun here. Coach Mike Woodson drew up the Knicks first play to get the ball to Anthony, who scored the first points of the game on a baseline jumper. Anthony said he wanted to play well for the fans, and he did his best to put on a show. With each basket, the crowd roared. He finished with 23 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. He also played 34 minutes, mostly because he asked Woodson to keep him in the game. They love him here, Woodson said. He had a great career here at Syracuse. Leading to the game, Anthony reminisced about the eight months he was on campus. He spoke of how Jim Boeheim showed him tough love but treated him like a son, of how magical his freshman season was and of how thrilled he was to return on Monday. We formed something special the short time I was up there, Anthony said before adding about Boeheim, He guided me through those eight months and showed me what it takes to win. In 2007, Anthony gave Syracuse $3 million to start a fund-raising

campaign to help build a new basketball facility on campus. At the time, it was the biggest donation a professional athlete had given to his university. For his efforts, the university named the building the Carmelo K. Anthony Basketball Center in 2009. I do a lot in this community just out of the goodness of my heart, Anthony said. For me, this is where it all started. Its only right for me to give back. Anthony was on campus when the construction started, but his first visit inside the center was Sunday after the Knicks practice. It was kind of surreal to be walking about there and seeing my name plastered outside of the building, Anthony said. It was shocking to me just to see that. I called my family and sent them pictures. Its one of those moments that Ill never forget. The facility has two practice courts and a weight room. Boeheim, who sat near the court for Mondays game, has his office on the second floor. Images of Anthony, including his jersey, are displayed throughout the center. Inside a hallway just outside the courts, Syracuses 81-78 victory over Kansas for the national championship is shown on a 24-

hour loop. Anthony led Syracuse that night with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. The championship trophy is also displayed in the hallway. Brandon Triche, a senior guard for Syracuse, remembers that game and the 2003 season well. It is one reason he choose to play at Syracuse. Triche is from Jamesville, N.Y., just outside Syracuse, and he knows how much Anthony is revered in the area. Triche said he appreciated having Anthony in the gym he helped build to watch his alma mater practice Sunday. For him to come back it means even more, just because hes always doing stuff for the community, Triche said. Hes good at basketball, but hes also helping others out, which is a great thing. During the Knicks practice Sunday, Anthony took a moment to look at the championship banner near the top of the Carrier Dome. He said it felt good to look back on the memories. Then, Anthony thought about what it would mean to help put a championship banner in New York. It motivates me, he said. It puts everything in perspective.

KEVIN RIVOLI/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Carmelo Anthony grabbing a rebound against the 76ers. The game was played at Syracuse, Anthonys former university.

FOOTBALL

A 5-Concussion Game Leads to Penalties for the Adults

From Page A1 the final play of the game. The coaches, at the games conclusion, shook hands, and then the Southbridge team, with a military flourish, marched off the field in pairs. Like almost all Pop Warner games, this one played a little more than an hours drive west of Boston gained little attention. But since then, it has emerged as one of the more disturbing episodes in the ever more controversial world of youth football. In the days after the game, the injured boys were determined to have sustained concussions. Some parents accused Southbridges players of deliberately trying to hurt their sons. Scott Lazo, Southbridges coach, accused the Tantasqua coach of not properly training his team and jeopardizing them by not forfeiting. If you lost that many players, you should have called a timeout and come seen me, Lazo said in an interview this week. My team is not dirty. All the issues were on their side of the field. This is a football game, not a Hallmark moment. Late last week, league officials suspended the coaches for both teams for the rest of the season. The referees who oversaw the game were barred from officiating any more contests in the Central Massachusetts Pop Warner league, and the presidents of both programs were put on probation. But the debate the game has further fueled is not likely to calm any time soon. Head injuries in the National Football League remain the leagues greatest safety concern, and the leagues greatest legal liability. Ivy League universities have ordered limits on contact in practice, to reduce the risk of brain injuries. And Pop Warner, the national organization made up of hundreds of thousands of children, some as young as 5, has adopted its own safety guidelines, based in part on the medical wisdom that the brains of young boys are particularly vulnerable. Still, as the Massachusetts game suggests, rules are only as effective as the adults charged with enforcing them. Four of the five injured boys have resumed playing football for Tantasqua. The football programs in Southbridge and Tantasqua are from neighboring communities, and in rivalries, passion and pride can interfere with common sense. A banner on Southbridges Web site asks, Are You Tough Enough? Lazo has coached in Southbridge for 18 years, and

N.F.L. ROUNDUP

Bears Survive Injury Scare To Beat Lions

By The Associated Press

PHOTOGRAPHS BY CHRISTINE PETERSON/WORCESTER TELEGRAM & GAZETTE

Jennifer Iller, above left, is the president of the Tantasqua Pop Warner football league. Her husband, Erik, left, was barred from coaching again this year after at least five of his players sustained concussions in a lopsided loss in September.
Injury Research Center at the University of North Carolina, who advises the N.C.A.A. and N.F.L. What in the world was the coach thinking? Erik Iller, Tantasquas coach, could not be reached for comment. Guskiewicz, whose three sons played Pop Warner football, said that it is often difficult to diagnose concussions in younger players because the injuries are invisible and the player must describe how he feels. Because teams are coached and organized by volunteers, the quality of care on the sidelines varies widely. Few leagues require that a physician be present, he said. Officials with the Central Massachusetts Pop Warner league did not seek to inquire into the Southbridge-Tantasqua game until parents began to complain a week later. Even then, it took several weeks to hear from the coaches and officials. The hearing took place last Thursday at a hotel in Worcester. The coaches and the team presidents were there, and parents milled around outside the hearing room. The meeting lasted about four hours and ended around midnight. In a statement after the meeting, Patrick Inderwish, the president of the Central Massachusetts Pop Warner league, said, Nothing is more important to Pop Warner than the safety and well-being of our players. Lazo, the Southbridge coach, said the league committee that conducted the hearing told him he should have taken his team off the field. He insisted, though, that he was not aware of the accumulating injuries on the other sideline. He said the coach of Tantasqua, Iller, told the committee he had his team continue because he wanted the boys to score, and thus leave with something. Its shocking there were five concussions diagnosed because it means there were probably many more, said Chris Nowinski, president of the Sports Legacy Institute, a nonprofit organization involved in research on brain trauma among athletes and members of the military. And with a roster that small, the kids might have felt pressure to keep playing. Speaking generally about youth coaches, he said, If you consider the coach is a fool, there are no rules that are foolproof.

Jay Cutler shook off a possible rib injury, Brian Urlacher made a key fumble recovery and the Bears won their fourth straight game, beating the Detroit Lions, 13-7, in Chicago on Monday night. It was certainly not an easy night for the N.F.C. North-leading-Bears, particularly their quarterback, but they won after a week off and possibly buried Detroit (2-4) in the process despite getting a major scare along the way. That happened in the second quarter when Cutler was sacked by Ndamukong Suh and wound up going to the locker room to have his ribs examined. Cutler started the second half and was 16 of 31 for 150 yards and a touchdown in the game, but with the defense locking down the Lions, the Bears (5-1) prevailed. It was a huge blow for last-place Detroit, a team many expected to contend for the division championship after making the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade. QUINN REPLACES CASSEL Brady Quinn will take over as the Kansas City Chiefs starting quarterback, and Matt Cassel will serve as the backup beginning with Sundays game against the Oakland Raiders. Chiefs Coach Romeo Crennel made the announcement shortly after meeting with the team, which is 1-5.
WOODSON BREAKS COLLARBONE

says he idolizes Vince Lombardi, the Hall of Fame pro coach who was once said to declare, Winning isnt everything; its the only thing. Yet even as the Southbridge team pummeled Tantasqua that day, parents on the losing side of the field wanted their sons to soldier on. We were trying to play a football game, one parent of a Tantasqua player wrote in an e-mail. Every kid who was out there wanted to play and not give up. Pop Warner has done more than perhaps any other organization to try to protect young players from head injuries. In 2010, the league told its coaches that if there was any doubt about a childs health, the player was to be removed from play. Coaches

receive training in how to recognize concussions, and once a player is removed because of a concussion, he needs a doctors note to return to games. In June, Pop Warner told its coaches to limit player contact in practices and to eliminate full-speed headon blocking and tackling drills. Yet on any given Saturday, the rules may be bent or ignored, even by referees under pressure from parents and coaches. Having been there and coached, the game officials should have been more cognizant with this many kids going down and seeing the sidelines and the same kids going out there, said Kevin Guskiewicz, the founding director of the Matthew Gfeller Sport-Related Traumatic Brain

Green Bay Packers safety Charles Woodson has a broken collarbone and will be out approximately six weeks. Coach Mike McCarthy confirmed the severity of the injury a day after the teams 30-20 win at St. Louis.
COOLEY BACK IN WASHINGTON

Tight end Chris Cooley passed a physical exam and agreed to rejoin the Washington Redskins. Cooleys return comes after tight end Fred Davis was lost for the season with an Achilles tendon injury. Cooley was released in August by the Redskins. JONES-DREW TO MISS TIME Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew will miss Sundays game at Green Bay, maybe more, because of a foot injury. Rashad Jennings will start in his place against the Packers.

Jets Lack Identity, but Parity in A.F.C. Allows Them Time to Find It
From First Sports Page run, they Sanchez when they should Tebow, and they Tebow well, when do they Tebow, anyway? Tebow doesnt even Tebow. But look at the A.F.C. standings, and their plight does not seem so terrible. The conference is littered with teams just like the 3-4 Jets, 10 within a game of .500, all imperfect, inconsistent, incomplete. Distinguishing the Jets from Tennessee or Cincinnati or Miami, which visits MetLife Stadium on Sunday, by means other than their uniforms is all but impossible. This parity sustains the Jets season and is likely to for a while, unless games against the Dolphins, Seahawks (away), Rams (away) and Patriots are fullfledged fiascos. But it also masks their identity, obscuring if they are a bad team (unlikely), an average one (getting warmer) or the playoff contender they consider themselves to be. This season, the Jets have resembled all three, sometimes in the same game. Partly, this is because their quarterback has, too. Sanchez revealed the frustrating range of his talents in the first half Sunday, presiding over a masterly opening drive before throwing a hideous interception and botching a handoff that resulted in a safety. But after halftime, he dissected the Patriots secondary with a precision absent since Week 1, completing 16 of 20 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown. On the Jets first drive in the fourth quarter, which cut New Englands lead to 23-20, he was 9 for 10 for 93 yards. On their next drive, which resulted in their game-tying field goal, he connected with Dustin Keller for a long gain, then watched Stephen Hills costly drop in agony. Sanchez was in a rhythm, and the Patriots seemed stumped. That is why what happened next seemed so confusing. When the Jets recovered Devin McCourtys fumble just before the two-minute warning, with 18 yards separating them from a goahead touchdown, Sanchez lined up behind center, then split out wide as Tebow took the direct snap and, somewhat predictably, ran straight ahead, for 2 yards. As with everything, context is essential. A few weeks ago, when the Jets had two fourth-quarter possessions to take the lead against Houston, Sanchez dropped back to pass on 9 of his 13 snaps on those drives. The Jets running game was abysmal, giving them little choice but to lean on Sanchez against a Texans defense that is superior to the Patriots on a night when he was not nearly as sharp as he was Sunday. Every decision the Jets make, they believe it will succeed. They would not have called a run for Tebow in that spot on Sunday, or for Joe McKnight on the next play, if they did not think it would produce yardage. And had Jeremy Kerley, Sanchezs intended target, not slipped on third down, the Jets just might have had a first down, which would have milked at least another minute off the clock, forced the Patriots to burn all three timeouts and put Nick Folk in position for a true game-winning field goal. But the conservative calls on those first two runs seemed notable less for the outcome than for what they signified: the implicit decision that, at that time, no other options would have been better. Options that included Sanchez. When you lose a game, you can say, Well, I wish I would have called this or this, Ryan said. Thats always going to be there. But at the time, it felt good with what we called. When you look back on it, you can point to a million different things.

EXTRA POINTS Tight end JEFF CUMBERLAND said Monday that he expected to miss Sundays game against Miami after dislocating his right hand, but that he hoped to return after the bye week, at Seattle on Nov. 11.

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

B15

N.F.L. Fast Forward

By Judy Battista

A 5-2 Team That Sure Doesnt Look It

When the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl after the 2000 season, their offense, it was frequently mentioned, did not score a touchdown in five consecutive games. In every year since, it has seemed, the Ravens have tried to make up for that, constructing an offense bit by bit, acquiring assets like Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. Many years from now, the Ravens identity will most likely still be colored by Ray Lewiss eye black and the ferocity of the defense in its heyday, but it will almost certainly be the offense that takes Baltimore back to the Super Bowl, if it is to get there. Sundays performance, though, with the defense in shambles and the offense sputtering, cast doubt on whether it could still happen this season. Houston destroyed the Ravens, 43-13, in as thorough a whipping as the N.F.L. ever produces, and an indicator of just how wide the gap is between the A.F.C.s best team the Texans, at 6-1 entering their bye week and the Ravens. Baltimore (5-2) may be the second-best team in a mediocre conference the only other A.F.C. team with a winning record is New England (4-3) but the Ravens are reeling, and they will spend their bye week wondering why the offense that was supposed to carry them is instead flailing, particularly on the road. On Sunday, with Lewis at home after triceps surgery, cornerback Lardarius Webb nursing a torn knee ligament and linebacker Terrell Suggs taking his first steps back from a torn Achilles tendon, Baltimores transition to a team led by its offense was supposed to be complete. But Flacco was sacked four times and was so inaccurate that at halftime his quarterback rating was 4.2. Combined with a near-miss 9-6 victory at Kansas City two weeks ago, Sundays loss raises troubling questions about why the offense, which has employed a no-huddle look this season, is struggling on the road. With a decimated defense the Ravens have given up a total of 622 yards rushing in the last three games the burden will fall even more on the offense to right itself. Is this still a viable team and a Super Bowl contender? the former Ravens Coach Brian Billick said. Absolutely, because of the offense. How long has it been since you said that? Literally forever. Is this going to kill the Ravens? My response is by who? New England might begin to play better, but they have their own issues defensively. As good as the Texans are, Billick added, they lost linebacker Brian Cushing to a knee injury two weeks ago. If not them, then who? Thats not very supportive, but I dont know if there is an A.F.C. team this year. Billicks point is valid. Like the Patriots, the Ravens have picked the right year to have issues. With the Steelers victory over the Bengals on Sunday night, the Ravens remain two games up in the A.F.C. North, and their first two games after the bye are against the Browns and the Raiders. But while the Ravens seem likely to remain in position for a playoff spot in a conference in which 8-8 might be enough to make it, they have plenty of questions to address that have nothing to do with injuries. Most perplexing is the Jekyll-and-Hyde offense, which in three road games this season has produced one victory and just three touchdowns, but has averaged 32 points at home. On Sunday, the Ravens were outgained, 420 yards to 176. The difference in time of possession was stark: 38 minutes 16 seconds for

Their defense decimated, the Ravens built-up, no-huddle offense is also sputtering, especially on the road.

the Texans to 21:44 for the Ravens. Flacco threw two interceptions and had his passes batted or tipped repeatedly, and Rice, the Ravens best weapon, never got established. Im concerned about everything, Coach John Harbaugh said. What arent you concerned about? Sometimes you get tossed out of the bar. We came in with hype, with good intentions and ready to do battle. I thought our guys fought. We kept running back in and they kept throwing us back out. When the Ravens made the decision to build up the offense and then to run a no-huddle, Harbaugh told Billick that if were going to get to the next step, we cant keep doing what weve been doing. He was right. But what the Ravens have been doing is not enough either.

Panthers in Flux
Much of the attention on the Carolina Panthers disappointing 1-5 start has fallen on quarterback Cam Newton, whose performance has been nothing close to the one he constructed in his rookie season, and whose odd postgame ramblings Im going to bring in a suggestion box, he told reporters Sunday, saying he did not know what was wrong after the Panthers loss to the Cowboys have led to concerns that he lacks the requisite maturity and steadiness to lead the Panthers out of the abyss. A bigger problem is that there seemed to be a disconnect between the front office and the coaching staff. The roster was constructed with a run-first offense in mind the Panthers gave $80 million guaranteed to three running backs but the coaching staff seems to want to pass the ball, and the Panthers are just 24th in rushing attempts. On Monday, in an oddly timed move, the Panthers fired General Manager Marty Hurney, who had been in the position for 10 years. This was an extremely difficult decision, the teams owner, Jerry Richardson, said in a statement. Marty made every effort to bring success to the Panthers and took the team to a Super Bowl and two N.F.C. championship games. Unfortunately, we have not enjoyed the success we hoped for in recent years. That Hurney was on thin ice was no secret. It wasnt just the decision to load up on running-back contracts in the era of the pass. People in the league thought this was an oddly constructed roster, even with the dynamic Newton. When center Ryan Kalil got hurt, it sent the offensive line into flux, further hampering the running game. There were poor drafts and a lack of progress that Richardson apparently had no patience for. Midseason firings of coaches are unusual in the N.F.L. because the short season means there is little time to exact meaningful change. A midseason firing of a teams top personnel executive is nearly unheard of, in part because there are few significant personnel moves being made at this time of the year. Firing Hurney was not a surprise. Firing him now is a bit odd. What it does most of all is put Coach Ron Rivera and his staff on notice. They will have to make do with the roster Hurney left them, but if they cannot show some turnaround, they could be gone, too. Newton would then have to start over with a new staff and perhaps a new philosophy. That might not be what he wanted to find in his suggestion box.

Joe Flacco was sacked four times by the Texans and threw two interceptions in the Ravens 43-13 loss.

LARRY W. SMITH/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

A Vocal Leader for the Giants, Bradshaw Is Also Not Hesitant to Get Physical
By SAM BORDEN

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. When Ahmad Bradshaw is at his best, the Giants running back powers through the line with a lowered shoulder and a scowl so large it can be seen clearly through the bars of his face mask. Bradshaw does not hide his intensity; earlier this season, he described his style as running angry, and his teammates do not hesitate to praise him for being among the most emotional players in the locker room. Yet with that emotion, there is a certain threshold of acceptability. And Sunday, as the Giants slogged through an inconsistent (though certainly dramatic) victory over the Washington Redskins, Bradshaws inner fury boiled over on two occasions that drew the ire of his coach and left at least one teammate with a bit of a headache. The most noticeable incident came as the Giants offense ran on to the field after Stevie Browns third-quarter interception. As Bradshaw veered away from the sideline, he clearly exchanged heated words with Coach Tom Coughlin, who was a few yards out on the field exhorting his players to seize the opportunity Brown had just provided. Asked after the game about the exchange, Coughlin declined to provide details, but Bradshaw on Monday acknowledged that a lot of my emotions kicked in and said he was telling Coughlin to run the ball on the coming possession. After rushing a combined 57 times in the teams previous two games, Bradshaw carried the ball only 12 times for 43 yards against the Redskins. At the time, Coughlin appeared to respond to Bradshaws histrionics by telling him to just get out on the field. On Monday, he praised Bradshaws passion but also added a caveat. Theres never been any question about Ahmad Bradshaws toughness, his intensity level, Coughlin said. He plays the game hard. Youd like to have everybody play as hard as he plays, to be honest with you. He gives it everything hes got, and so you want people to recognize that fact, but

sometimes you do have to control yourself and control your emotions, and hes working on it. Coughlin added that the situation had been addressed with Bradshaw. In addition to his run-in with Coughlin, Bradshaw also had a notably sharp interaction with receiver Victor Cruz earlier in the game. After being stopped by a Redskins defender after a 15-yard gain, Bradshaw leapt up and appeared to be angry at Cruz for missing a block that could have sprung him for an even bigger play. Bradshaw smacked Cruz on the helmet which

in and of itself is not unusual for players to do, but in this instance seemed particularly violent and Cruzs initial reaction seemed to be one of shock and pain. It didnt tickle, to say the least, Cruz said, and when asked if he believed he had missed a block on the play, he shrugged and added, In his eyes, I guess I did. Bradshaw and Cruz quickly mended any potential rift they hugged it out soon after the slap, Cruz said but the two outbursts are hardly an isolated incident for Bradshaw. During the

SUZY ALLMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Ahmad Bradshaw said his intensity helps our team, adding, It pumps our line up.

same game, Bradshaw was seen throwing his helmet in frustration after a Giants turnover, and he has upbraided teammates on multiple occasions in the past. Bradshaw explained Monday that he felt an obligation not to be restrained because it helps our team. He added: It pumps our line up. It gives us a lot of emotion going out on the field in different drives, and when we need it, I just try to hype myself as much as possible. Safety Antrel Rolle said that was not out of the ordinary for the Giants, and noted that sometimes players can get so worked up during a game that criticism can come off harsh. Most important, Rolle said, Bradshaws brand of fire is well-intentioned. Of course, Bradshaw also played his formative years in the N.F.L. behind the former Giant Brandon Jacobs, who was known for having a similarly spicy attitude and was a vocal leader. Hey, if Im going to a fight, Im taking Ahmad with me, Rolle said. I love the attitude he brings to a game. Hes a very emotional guy. Rolle added, Were brothers in here, and everyone knows that brothers fight sometimes. Tight end Martellus Bennett, who is in his first year with the Giants, said he learned quickly about Bradshaws demeanor. While Bennett has also been the recipient of more than a couple of head slaps from Bradshaw sometimes even before a play begins, he said Bennett said he was pleased to see that Bradshaws emotion was genuine. Bennett even listed a number of places where he saw Bradshaw show his passion and added that when he rode in a car with Bradshaw, the music had to be turned up loud, too. Asked to describe Bradshaws attitude, Bennett struggled to come up with an adjective and eventually settled on Ahmad-ing. He smacks me all the time, Bennett said. He grabs you. He touches you. Hes really a touchyfeely guy, with boxer hands. Hes a heavy-handed kid.

B16

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

C YC L I N G

SCOREBOARD
BASEBALL M.L.B. LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
(Best-of-7; x-if necessary) AMERICAN LEAGUE DETROIT 4, YANKEES 0 Oct. 13: Detroit 6, Yankees 4, 12 innings Oct. 14: Detroit 3, Yankees 0 Oct. 16: Detroit 2, Yankees 1 Oct. 18: Detroit 8, New York 1 NATIONAL LEAGUE SAN FRANCISCO 4, ST. LOUIS 3 Oct. 14: St. Louis 6, San Francisco 4 Oct. 15: San Francisco 7, St. Louis 1 Wednesday: St. Louis 3, San Francisco 1 Thursday: St. Louis 8, San Francisco 3 Friday: San Francisco 5, St. Louis 0 Sunday: San Francisco 6, St. Louis 1 Monday: San Francisco 9, St. Louis 0 WORLD SERIES DETROIT VS. SAN FRANCISCO (Best-of-7; x-if necessary) All games televised by Fox Wednesday: at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. Thursday: at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. Saturday: at Detroit, 8:07 p.m. Sunday: at Detroit, 8:15 p.m. x-Monday, Oct. 29: at Detroit, 8:07 p.m. x-Wednesday, Oct. 31: at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m. x-Thursday, Nov. 1: at San Francisco, 8:07 p.m.

Armstrong Formally Stripped of His 7 Tour Titles

From First Sports Page France winner. The antidoping agency applauded the cycling unions acceptance of the penalties the agency gave Armstrong in August, when Armstrong gave up fighting his case. Back then, the cycling union was battling to gain jurisdiction over the matter. Today, the U.C.I. made the right decision in the Lance Armstrong case, Travis Tygart, the antidoping agencys chief executive, said in a statement. Despite its prior opposition to Usadas investigation into doping on the U.S. Postal Service cycling team and within the sport, Usada is glad that the U.C.I. finally reversed course in this case and has made the credible decision available to it. Tygart said there was still more to do to clean up cycling because there were many more details of doping that are hidden, many more doping doctors, and corrupt team directors, and the omerta has not yet been fully broken. He called for immunity to be given to riders who come forward and confess their doping, so the sport can learn from its mistakes. The World Anti-Doping Agency now has the opportunity to appeal Usadas decision, and its officials said they were still in the process of reviewing the evidence. The cycling unions announcement delivered yet another devastating blow to Armstrong, who has unceremoniously fallen from grace within the past two weeks. Last week he stepped down as the chairman of Livestrong, his cancer foundation, and lost nearly all of his sponsors, including Nike and the Trek bicycle company. Oakley sunglasses, one of the companies that had been with Armstrong the longest, announced Monday that it was dropping him, too. Also, the International Olympic Committee is reviewing Armstrongs case and will probably strip him of the bronze medal he won at

PRO FOOTBALL N.F.L. STANDINGS

AMERICAN CONFERENCE East N. England Miami Jets Buffalo South Houston Indianapolis Tennessee Jacksonville North Baltimore Pittsburgh Cincinnati Cleveland West Denver San Diego Oakland Kansas City W L T Pct PF PA

4 3 0 .571 217 163 3 3 0 .500 120 117 3 4 0 .429 159 170 3 4 0 .429 171 227 W L T Pct PF PA

6 1 0 .857 216 128 3 3 0 .500 117 158 3 4 0 .429 149 238 1 5 0 .167 W L T Pct 88 164 PF PA

5 2 0 .714 174 161 3 3 0 .500 140 132 3 4 0 .429 166 187 1 6 0 .143 147 180 W L T Pct PF PA

3 3 0 .500 170 138 3 3 0 .500 148 137 2 4 0 .333 113 171 1 5 0 .167 104 183

GIANTS 9, CARDINALS 0
St. Louis ab Jay cf 4 Beltran rf 4 Holliday lf 4 Craig 1b 4 Y.Molina c 4 Freese 3b 3 Descalso 2b 3 T.Cruz ph 1 Motte p 0 Kozma ss 3 Lohse p 1 J.Kelly p 0 Mujica p 0 Chambers ph 1 Rosenthal p 0 S.Robinson ph 1 Boggs p 0 Salas p 0 Schumaker 2b 1 Totals 34 San Francisco ab Pagan cf 5 Scutaro 2b 4 Sandoval 3b 4 S.Casilla p 0 Ja.Lopez p 0 Romo p 0 Posey c 4 Pence rf 5 Belt 1b 5 G.Blanco lf 3 B.Crawford ss 4 M.Cain p 3 Affeldt p 0 A.Huff ph 1 Arias 3b 0 Totals 38 St. Louis 000 San Francisco115 r h 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 r h 1 2 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 14 000 000 bi bb so avg. 0 1 2 .207 0 1 0 .300 0 0 0 .200 0 0 0 .125 0 0 0 .393 0 1 1 .192 0 0 1 .200 0 0 1 .000 0 0 0 --0 1 2 .227 0 0 0 .000 0 0 0 --0 0 0 --0 0 0 .000 0 0 0 --0 0 1 .000 0 0 0 --0 0 0 --0 0 0 .000 0 4 8 bi bb so avg. 1 0 1 .242 0 1 0 .500 1 1 0 .310 0 0 0 --0 0 0 --0 0 0 --0 1 0 .154 2 0 2 .179 1 0 0 .304 0 2 0 .182 1 0 1 .217 1 0 2 .400 0 0 0 --0 0 0 .200 0 0 0 .000 7 5 6 0000 7 2 11x9 14 0

PATRICK KOVARIK/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE GETTY IMAGES

NATIONAL CONFERENCE East Giants Phila. Dallas Washington South Atlanta New Orleans Tampa Bay Carolina North Chicago Minnesota Green Bay Detroit West San Fran. Arizona Seattle St. Louis W L T Pct PF PA

Lance Armstrong, capturing a stage of the Tour de France in 2004. He won ultimate possession of the yellow jersey for seven straight years, but his name is being removed from the Tour record books.
the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Christian Prudhomme, the Tours race director, said at a news conference Monday that he no longer considered Armstrong a Tour champion and that the Amaury Sport Organization, the company that organizes the Tour de France, would erase Armstrongs name from its record books. He added that the runners-up should not be elevated in the standings because of the prevalent doping that occurred during that period in the sport. Those dark years must be marked by the absence of a winner, he said. Prudhomme characterized Armstrong as a true talent who strayed and played with fire, and said he would like Armstrong to repay the millions of dollars in prize money he won at the Tour. But the cycling union will make the final decision on that. McQuaid said the management committee of the cycling union would meet on Friday to discuss the ramifications of Armstrongs downfall, including if and how Armstrong would repay prize money and how the cycling union would handle the standings at the Tours he won. He said the committee also would discuss the possible repayment of prize money by Armstrongs former teammates who provided testimony in the antidoping agencys case and confessed their own doping. A lot of these guys made a lot of money out of their cheating, McQuaid said. A lot have admitted they cheated and apologized to their family and friends, but they have not apologized to the U.C.I. or the sport. McQuaid also disputed accusations that the cycling union covered up positive drug tests for Armstrong or took bribes from him, calling those claims absolutely untrue. The decision to strip Armstrong of his Tour victories has also created legal problems for him. One is that SCA Promotions, an insurance company based in Dallas, is trying to recoup $9.5 million in performance bonuses it covered when Armstrong won Tour after Tour. The company withheld a $5 million bonus for Armstrongs winning the 2004 Tour after a French book claimed he had doped and cheated to win. Armstrong sued the company to force it to pay him that bonus. The two parties reached a settlement, with the insurance company paying Armstrong $7.5 million and now SCA Promotions wants that money returned, along with the other $4.5 million in bonuses, for a total of $12 million. Once he loses those titles, in our minds, hes not entitled to those payments, Jeffrey M. Tillotson, a lawyer for the company, said. Were sending a demand letter to him, which Im sure hell throw away. But fair is fair. We want our money back.

5 2 0 .714 205 137 3 3 0 .500 103 125 3 3 0 .500 113 133 3 4 0 .429 201 200 W L T Pct PF PA

6 0 01.000 171 113 2 4 0 .333 176 182 2 4 0 .333 148 136 1 5 0 .167 106 144 W L T Pct PF PA 78

5 1 0 .833 162

5 2 0 .714 167 131 4 3 0 .571 184 155 2 4 0 .333 133 150 W L T Pct PF PA

5 2 0 .714 165 100 4 3 0 .571 124 118 4 3 0 .571 116 106 3 4 0 .429 130 141

The Tainted Tour

Since 1998, more than a third of the top finishers of the Tour de France have admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs at some point in their careers or have been officially linked to doping. The grid below shows the original top-10 placements in each of the past 15 years. Riders listed have tested positive, have been sanctioned by an official cycling or antidoping agency or have admitted to doping. Cyclists whose sanctions were later overturned are not included.
Finish 1
PANTANI ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG ARMSTRONG LANDIS CONTADOR CONTADOR CONTADOR

EJay (1), Kozma (2). LOBSt Louis 12, San Francisco 10. 2BSandoval (2), Pence (1). HRBelt (1), off Motte. RBIsPagan (2), Sandoval (6), Pence 2 (3), Belt (2), B.Crawford (5), M.Cain (1). SBBeltran (2), Descalso (1). DPSt Louis 1 St. Louis ip h r er bb so np era Lohse L1-1 2 6 5 5 1 1 46 7.04 / 2 2 2 2 1 26 4.50 J.Kelly Mujica 1/ 1 0 0 0 0 14 0.00 Rosenthal 2 1 0 0 1 4 34 0.00 / 3 1 1 1 0 22 5.40 Boggs Salas / 0 0 0 0 0 3 3.86 Motte 1 1 1 1 0 0 14 2.25 San Francisco ip h r er bb so np era M.Cain W1-1 5/ 5 0 0 1 4 102 2.19 Affeldt 1/ 0 0 0 1 2 18 0.00 S.Casilla / 2 0 0 0 0 17 0.00 Ja.Lopez 1 0 0 0 2 2 25 0.00 / 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.00 Romo T3:35. A43,056 (41,915).

MONDAY
Chicago 13, Detroit 7

THURSDAY
Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 8:20

SUNDAY
Miami at Jets, 1 Giants at Dallas, 4:25 Jacksonville at Green Bay, 1 Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1 Carolina at Chicago, 1 San Diego at Cleveland, 1 Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1 Seattle at Detroit, 1 Washington at Pittsburgh, 1 New England vs. St. Louis at London, 1 Oakland at Kansas City, 4:05 New Orleans at Denver, 8:20 Open: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston

POSTSEASON 1-3 COMEBACKS

World Series 1985Kansas City (AL) 4, St. Louis (NL) 3 1979Pittsburgh (NL) 4, Baltimore (AL) 3 1968Detroit (AL) 4, St. Louis (NL) 3 1958New York (AL) 4, Milwaukee (NL) 3 1925Pittsburgh (NL) 4, Washington (AL) 3 x-1903Boston (AL) 5, Pittsburgh (NL) 3 x-best-of-9 series American League Championship Series 2007Boston 4, Cleveland 3 2004Boston 4, N.Y. Yankees 3 1986Boston 4, California 3 1985Kansas City 4, Toronto 3 National League Championship Series 2012San Francisco 4, St. Louis 3 2003Florida 4, Chicago 3 1996Atlanta 4, St. Louis 3

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

MONDAY, OCT. 29
San Francisco at Arizona, 8:30

BEARS 13, LIONS 7

Detroit. . . . . . . . 0 0 0 77 Chicago . . . . . . 10 0 3 013 RUSHINGDetroit, LeShoure 12-63, Stafford 3-23, Bell 3-13. Chicago, Forte 2296, Bush 6-36, Cutler 3-34, Campbell 1-5. PASSINGDetroit, Stafford 28-46-1-261. Chicago, Cutler 16-31-0-150, Campbell 1-1-0-0. RECEIVINGDetroit, T.Young 6-81, LeShoure 6-20, Pettigrew 5-37, Broyles 3-51, Johnson 3-34, Bell 3-16, Burleson 1-16, Scheffler 1-6. Chicago, Marshall 6-81, Hester 3-38, Bennett 3-27, Forte 3-4, Davis 1-3, Bush 1-(minus 3). MISSED FIELD GOALSChicago, Gould 47 (BK).

2
ULLRICH ZLLE ULLRICH ULLRICH ULLRICH BASSO

3
RUMSAS VINOKOUROV BASSO ULLRICH LEIPHEIMER KOHL ARMSTRONG F. SCHLECK

N.L. CHAMPIONS
2012San Francisco 2011St. Louis 2010San Francisco 2009Philadelphia 2008Philadelphia 2007Colorado 2006St. Louis 2005Houston 2004St. Louis 2003Florida 2002San Francisco 2001Arizona 2000New York 1999Atlanta 1998San Diego 1997Florida 1996Atlanta 1995Atlanta

4
DUFAUX MOREAU HAMILTON ULLRICH

5
GONZALEZ DE GALDEANO VINOKOUROV VANDE VELDE F. SCHLECK CONTADOR

TENNIS VALENCIA OPEN 500

Ciudad de las Artes y las Ciencas Valencia VALENCIA, SPAIN Singles First Round David Goffin, Belgium, d. Pablo Andujar, Spain, 6-2, 6-2. Lleyton Hewitt, Australia, d. Juan Monaco (4), Argentina, 6-3, 6-4. Fernando Verdasco, Spain, d. Tommy Robredo, Spain, 6-3, 6-4. Ivan Dodig, Croatia, d. Philipp Kohlschreiber, Germany, 6-2, 7-6 (6). John Isner (5), United States, d. Fabio Fognini, Italy, 6-3, 6-7 (4), 7-5. Albert Ramos, Spain, d. Rajeev Ram, United States, 6-3, 6-3.

6
OLANO VIRENQUE MAYO LEIPHEIMER VALVERDE F. SCHLECK

7
MEIER SEVILLA BASSO RASMUSSEN

N.L.C.S. M.V.P.S
2012Marco Scutaro, San Francisco 2011David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals 2010Cody Ross, San Francisco Giants 2009Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies 2008Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies 2007Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies 2006Jeff Suppan, St. Louis Cardinals 2005Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros 2004Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 2003Ivan Rodriguez, Florida Marlins 2002Benito Santiago, San Francisco Giants 2001Craig Counsell, Arizona Diamondbacks 2000Mike Hampton, New York Mets 1999Eddie Perez, Atlanta Braves 1998Sterling Hitchcock, San Diego Padres 1997Livan Hernandez, Florida Marlins 1996Javy Lopez, Atlanta Braves 1995Mike Devereaux, Atlanta Braves

8
VIRENQUE LEIPHEIMER MOREAU MOREAU VANDE VELDE BASSO

9
DI GRANDE LEIPHEIMER LANDIS ASTARLOZA VALVERDE DANIELSON

DAVIDOFF SWISS INDOORS

St. Jakobshalle BASEL, SWITZERLAND Singles First Round Lukasz Kubat, Poland, d. Lukas Lacko, Slovakia, 6-4, 6-4. Julien Benneteau, France, d. Andrey Kuznetsov, Russia, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3. Roger Federer (1), Switzerland, d. Benjamin Becker, Germany, 7-5, 6-3. Richard Gasquet (3), France, d. Robin Haase, Netherlands, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

10
VALJAVEC

Sources: United States Anti-Doping Agency, Court of Arbitration for Sport, International Cycling Union, French Agency for the Fight Against Doping, Amaury Sport Organization, news agency and European news reports

ALAN McCLEAN, ARCHIE TSE AND LISA WAANANEN/THE NEW YORK TIMES

COLLEGE FOOTBALL F.C.S. COACHES TOP 25

First-place votes in parentheses, records through Oct. 21 and previous ranking: Record Pts Pvs 1. East. Washington (22) .6-1 642 1 2. Georgia Southern (1) .6-1 614 3 3. North Dakota St. (3) . .6-1 593 4 4. Montana State. . . . . .6-1 552 5 5. Sam Houston State . .5-2 548 6 6. Lehigh . . . . . . . . . . .8-0 494 7 7. Old Dominion . . . . . .6-1 493 8 8. Wofford . . . . . . . . . .6-1 473 9 9. Stony Brook . . . . . . .7-1 439 10 10. James Madison . . . . .5-2 413 2 11. Cal Poly. . . . . . . . . .7-0 398 12 12. New Hampshire. . . . .6-2 370 14 13. Northern Arizona . . . .6-1 327 15 14. Central Arkansas . . . .6-2 275 17 15. Appalachian State . . .5-3 240 11 16. Delaware . . . . . . . . .5-2 228 22 17. Illinois State . . . . . . .6-2 225 13 18. Eastern Kentucky . . .6-2 172 24 18. Indiana State . . . . . .6-2 172 25 20. Albany (N.Y) . . . . . . .6-1 153 22 21. Tennessee State . . . .7-1 115 18 21. Youngstown State . . .4-3 115 16 23. Villanova . . . . . . . . .6-2 111 24. Harvard . . . . . . . . . .5-1 56 20 25. Towson . . . . . . . . . .3-4 53 19 Others receiving votes: BethuneCookman 26, McNeese State 26, UT Martin 25, Richmond 23, Alabama A&M 19, Southern Illinois 17, Sacramento State 16, Jacksonville State 14, Northern Iowa 4, South Dakota State 3, Princeton 3, Samford 2, The Citadel 1.

PRO BASKETBALL

PRO BASKETBALL N.B.A. PRESEASON

All Times EDT

General Managers Like Nets Work, if Not Their Title Chances

By HOWARD BECK

MONDAY

Rival executives like what the Nets have done. They just are not sure yet how far they can go. A majority of the leagues general managers, 62.1 percent, named the Nets the N.B.A.s most improved

team, according to poll results published Monday on NBA.com. Only a handful, however, picked the Nets to win the Atlantic Division. Still, perceptions are clearly changing for the better as the Nets prepare to open their first season in

CALENDAR
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Basketball / N.B.A. Football / College Soccer 8:00 p.m. 8:00 p.m. Noon 2:30 p.m. 2:30 p.m. 7:30 p.m. 8:00 p.m. 10:00 p.m. Preseason, Oklahoma City at Chicago Arkansas State at Louisiana-Lafayette UEFA Champions, Benfica at Spartak Moscow UEFA Champions, Braga at Manchester United UEFA Champions, Celtic at Barcelona Womens friendly, Germany at U.S. Concacaf, Olimpia at Houston Concacaf, Herediano at Salt Lake NBATV ESPN2 FSC FSC MSG+ NBCSN FSC FSC
In Uniondale, N.Y.

This Week
HOME AWAY
KNICKS

TUE 10/23

WED 10/24
NETS

THU 10/25

FRI 10/26

SAT 10/27

SUN 10/28

MON 10/29

(PRESEASON) NETS (PRESEASON)

DALLAS

7:30 P.M.
MSG
KNICKS

7:30 P.M.
MSG
MIAMI

Regular-season opener Knicks at Nets Nov. 1, 7 P.M. TNT

PHILADELPHIA

GIANTS 4:25 P.M., SUNDAY FOX

JETS 1 P.M., SUNDAY

CBS RED BULLS 1:30 P.M., SATURDAY NBC

Brooklyn next week. This summer, the Nets created one of the leagues top backcourts, re-signing Deron Williams and trading for Joe Johnson. They brought back Brook Lopez, one of the leagues most skilled big men. They strengthened their bench with C. J. Watson, Reggie Evans, Andray Blatche and Mirza Teletovic. Of course, most improved is also an indication of how far the Nets had to go after finishing 22-44 last season. When general managers were asked which team made the best overall moves, the vast majority (86.2 percent) named the Los Angeles Lakers, who acquired Dwight Howard and Steve Nash. The Nets finished second, with 6.9 percent. The league polled all 30 front offices, although not every team responded to every question. Team executives were not permitted to vote for their own teams. Miami was the overwhelming favorite to win the Eastern Conference, with 96.7 percent of the vote. The Heat were also widely favored (70 percent) to repeat as champions. The star-studded Lakers (60 percent) were the favorites to win the West, followed by the Thunder (36.7 percent) and, surprisingly, the Denver Nuggets (3.3 percent).

The Nets and the Knicks generally received mixed reviews. Each garnered 13.3 percent of the vote on the topic of who would win the Atlantic, finishing ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers (6.7 percent) but well behind the Celtics (66.7 percent). Williams, long regarded as one of the leagues top point guards, this time did not receive a single vote in that category. Chris Paul won the most votes (69 percent) for best point guard. Similarly, the Knicks Carmelo Anthony did not receive a single vote for best small forward. Miamis LeBron James easily won that title (73.3 percent), with the rest of the votes going to the Thunders Kevin Durant (26.7 percent). Anthony did receive one vote (3.3 percent) for most valuable player, finishing behind James and Durant. He drew 6.7 percent of the vote as the player you want taking the shot with the game on the line, finishing behind Durant and Kobe Bryant. The Lakers signing of Nash was deemed the most surprising move the off-season, with 39.3 percent of the vote. The Howard trade, which sent Andrew Bynum to Philadelphia and Andre Iguodala to Denver, was second in that category. The third most surprising move? The Knicks decision to let Jeremy Lin leave for Houston (14.3 percent).

Philadelphia 98, Knicks 90 Toronto 104, Milwaukee 95 Dallas 87, New Orleans 74 Sacramento at Phoenix Utah at Portland Golden State at L.A. Clippers

TRANSACTIONS M.L.B.
American League DETROIT TIGERS Named Scott Bream director of pro scouting. MINNESOTA TWINS Named Tom Brunansky hitting coach, Bobby Cuellar bullpen coach and Terry Steinbach bench coach and catching instructor. Announced Scott Ullger will coach first base in addition to outfield instruction and Joe Vavra will coach third base in addition to infield instruction. SEATTLE MARINERS Named Dave Hansen hitting coach. TORONTO BLUE JAYS Claimed C Bobby Wilson off waivers from the L.A. Angels. National League COLORADO ROCKIES Named Mark Wiley director of pitching operations.

SOCCER M.L.S. STANDINGS

EAST y-Sporting KC x-D.C. x-Chicago x-New York x-Houston Columbus Montreal Philadelphia New England Toronto FC W 17 17 17 15 14 14 12 10 8 5 L 7 10 11 9 8 12 15 16 17 20 T Pts GF GA 9 60 40 26 6 57 52 42 5 56 45 40 9 54 54 46 11 53 48 39 7 49 42 43 6 42 45 50 6 36 36 40 8 32 38 44 8 23 35 60

N.B.A.
INDIANA PACERS Exercised their option on G-F Paul George through the 201314 season. Released C Luke Nevill, G Sundiata Gaines and G Blake Ahearn. LOS ANGELES LAKERS Waived F Chris Douglas-Roberts and C Greg Somogyi. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER Waived G Walker Russell.

N.F.L.
CAROLINA PANTHERS Fired general manager Marty Hurney. Placed CB Chris Gamble on injured reserve. CLEVELAND BROWNS Signed OL Jarrod Shaw from the practice squad. Placed OL Jason Pinkston on injured reserve. Signed OL Bryant Browning to the practice squad. DETROIT LIONS Signed CB Justin Miller. Released LB Doug Hogue. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Placed PK Nate Kaeding on injured reserve. Signed WR Denario Alexander to a one-year contract. WASHINGTON REDSKINS Signed TE Chris Cooley. Placed TE Fred Davis on injured reserve.

WEST W L T Pts GF GA y-San Jose 19 6 8 65 71 42 x-Seattle 15 7 11 56 51 32 x-Real Salt Lake 17 11 5 56 46 35 x-Los Angeles 15 12 6 51 58 47 x-Vancouver 11 13 9 42 35 41 FC Dallas 9 13 11 38 40 45 Colorado 10 19 4 34 42 50 Portland 8 16 9 33 33 55 Chivas USA 7 18 8 29 22 56 x-clinched playoff berth; y- clinched conference Wednesdays Game Philadelphia at Sporting KC, 8:30 p.m.

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

B17

B A S E B A L L P L AYO F F S C H A M P I O N S H I P S E R I E S

Avoiding Elimination Again, Giants Oust Cardinals

CHRISTIAN PETERSEN/GETTY IMAGES

Angel Pagan scoring the Giants first run, on a groundout by Pablo Sandoval in the first inning. The Giants will face the Tigers in the World Series; Game 1 is Wednesday night in San Francisco.
From First Sports Page ing the bases again. Brandon Crawford chopped a ball up the middle and Kozma, a player who seemed at the center of the Cardinals misery all night, made the questionable decision to throw home, where Pence scored easily. After Giants starter Matt Cain struck out, Angel Pagan grounded to Kozma, who made a sloppy flip to second, allowing Pagan to beat the throw to first on a potential double-play grounder, letting Belt score. The bases were still loaded when Pablo Sandoval lined out to end the inning, but the damage was done. After 11 plate appearances, 4 hits, 2 walks and an error, the Giants were up, 7-0. They added a run in the seventh off Mitchell Boggs through Aubrey Huffs run-scoring double-play ball, and another in the eighth on a home run by Belt. Cain seemed to lack his best stuff, but nevertheless provided five and two-thirds scoreless innings, bouncing back from his Game 3 loss last week. He navigated out of jams in each of his first three innings, the most perilous of which occurred in the second. With runners on second and third and two outs, Kyle Lohse smacked a line drive that seemed headed for the outfield, but it was snatched out of the air by shortstop Brandon Crawford, who was fully elevated and extended. Minor crisis averted, Cain contributed to the offense in the bottom of that inning, putting the Giants ahead, 2-0, when his two-out, line-drive single bisected the middle infielders and brought Blanco home from second base. Cain was the recipient of wild applause in the sixth, when he hit Matt Holliday in the arm, possible retribution for Hollidays rough takeout slide that injured second baseman Marco Scutaro during Game 2. Two outs later, he was pulled from the game and was cheered again. It was another stirring moment for Cain, who pitched a perfect game earlier in the season and earned the victory in the All-Star Game. Lohse, who entered this start with two victories and a 1.96 earned run average this postseason, fared much worse, and the Giants hitters, as they did to Chris Carpenter on Sunday, jabbed at him from the first inning. Pagan opened the game with a base hit, and he scurried to third after getting a running start on Scutaros single to right. Sandoval came up next and could only topspin the ball to the right of the pitchers mound, but it gave Pagan enough time to scramble home and put the Giants ahead, 1-0. The Giants had repeated their successful pattern from Sunday, scoring early. And when it was over, the Giants had repeated another pattern, tiptoeing away from the brink of elimination and rolling into the next round.

Tigers Have Ace, but Giants Are Resilient

SAN FRANCISCO When Justin Verlander throws his first pitch on Wednesday, in Game 1 of the World Series, you wonder if he will somehow rev his fastball to 150 miles an hour. Such is the rollicking atmosphere that will greet Verlander, the ace of the Detroit Tigers, who thrives on ON adrenaline and will BASEBALL get a major dose here. The San Francisco Giants are back in the World Series, meaning baseballs best party will rage at least two more nights. The Giants snuffed the reigning champions, the St. Louis Cardinals, 9-0, to win Game 7 of the National League Championship Series at AT&T Park on Monday. They shook orange towels, jammed to classic rock, scarfed garlic fries and reveled in another shot at glory. Verlander and the Tigers, who have not won a title since 1984, will probably be the favorites. They have already dashed the dreams of one Bay Area team the Oakland Athletics and eviscerated the Yankees in a fourgame sweep. But these Giants are not like those teams. Oakland hitters led the majors in strikeouts and whiffed 50 times in five games against Detroit. The Yankees spent the American League Championship Series flailing at pitches far off the plate, averaging nine strikeouts per game. The Giants, meanwhile, have a pesky habit of putting the bat on the ball, which could be especially important against a Tigers team not known for defense. Nothing good can come from a strikeout, and while making contact sometimes hurts why did the Cardinals let Lance Lynn swing away in Game 5, when he tapped into a killer double play? the Giants understand that when you hit the ball, you have a chance. Their offense ranked 26th in the majors in strikeouts. Little things added up in Game 7. In the first inning, Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse doubleclutched a weak dribbler, as third baseman David Freese had done in Game 6, allowing a run to score. In the second, a groundout by Brandon Crawford moved a runner to second, and pitcher Matt Cain scored him with a two-

3 Up and 3 Down: Beltran Fails in the N.L.C.S. Again

By KAREN CROUSE

TYLER KEPNER

PAUL KITAGAKI JR./THE SACRAMENTO BEE, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS

Matt Cain pitched shutout ball for five and two-thirds innings to win Game 7 of the N.L.C.S.
out single. A deluge followed in the third, when five runs scored on a series of zigzag hits and bad infield decisions. A rout was on, without anything close to a home run. The Giants, of course, prefer the unconventional. They glided to the 2010 World Series on the bat of Cody Ross, an August waiver claim who ripped two home runs in a playoff game against Roy Halladay, who had just pitched a no-hitter. Then the Giants bounced the Texas Rangers in five games, using stingy young pitching and a clutch home run from Edgar Renteria, the last gasp of his career. These Giants have new offensive stars notably Marco Scutaro, who ripped 14 hits in the series and found their pitching just in time. Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong and Cain stifled the Cardinals in Games 5, 6 and 7, dominating so thoroughly that each even drove in a run. Mostly, though, the team embodies a comeback spirit their fans adore. Down two games to none in the division series, the Giants roared back with three wins in Cincinnati to advance. Down three games to one in this N.L.C.S., they prevailed again. The team has captured peoples imagination and people call them cockroaches because every time this team has been beaten down, its popped back up, Larry Baer, the Giants chief executive, said before Game 7. And Im talking lots of ways. Beaten down by Brian Wilson being out for the season. Beaten down by Aubrey Huff not being the starting first baseman, Freddy Sanchez not playing, Melky Cabrera off the field, the prospects of a blockbuster Dodger trade, down 2-0 and having to win three in a row in Cincinnati, down 3-1 here. Theres sort of this anythingcan-happen, never-say-die relentlessness that is just a quality of life that people like, Baer said. It says, You cannot defeat me. And the fans respond to that. The fans are going to yell their hearts out, because that is a quality that just doesnt come around too often in sports. The Giants became only the second team to win three consecutive elimination games twice in the same postseason. Steve Balboni, a Giants scout, was the first baseman for the other team to do it, the 1985 Kansas City Royals. After Game 4 in St. Louis, Balboni said pitching would make the difference, and that each win by the trailing team would put more pressure on the team with the lead. He was right on both counts, it seems, and also on a third. To me, it boils down to each game you need to play well, Balboni said. You cant really make mistakes. The two teams that you play are both hot. If you give them anything, theyre going to take it. The Giants let the Cardinals make the big mistakes, which extended beyond the field. When Lohse left in the third inning, with the bases loaded and no outs, trailing by two, the situation screamed for the teams best power pitcher. Yet Mike Matheny, the Cardinals rookie manager, used his long reliever, Joe Kelly, instead of Trevor Rosenthal. By the time Rosenthal entered the game in the fifth inning, when he struck out the side the Cardinals were down by seven and the most important moment of the game was long gone. The Cardinals had missed it, the Giants had seized it, and now they welcome Verlander to their mosh pit by the bay. Going through what we did, winning three in a row, and coming back in this series, I cant explain how much joy I feel, Angel Pagan said. Its really just magical.

SAN FRANCISCO Before his team took the field Monday against the Giants in the decisive game of the National League Championship Series, Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny described Carlos Beltran as one laid-back guy and added, Not that the effort is not there. Thats just how he is, Matheny said. Thats his makeup. In that respect, Matheny said, Beltran personified a St. Louis team that had won its past six elimination games before its 9-0 loss Monday night. I just think thats part of the magic of this club, he said. They just show up the same every day. The Cardinals did not have a clubhouse inspirator like Giants right fielder Hunter Pence, whose private speaking inspired his teammates. They had a roster filled with strong, silent types like Beltran, who speaks up so rarely that it was a big deal when he shared with his teammates his desire to play in a World Series in the aftermath of the Cardinals come-from-behind win over the Washington Nationals in the deciding game of the teams division series. We dont have one guy that lights up the room, is how the injured first baseman Lance Berkman put it. In their final three games against the Giants, they also did not have one guy who lit up the scoreboard. The Cardinals were outscored, 20-1, by a Giants team that seemed to feed off Pences passion, their pitchers steely resolve and the understated excellence of their second baseman, Marco Scutaro. Beltrans bid to play in the World Series fell one victory short for the third time with three teams. He lost in the seventh game of the N.L.C.S. as a Houston Astro in 2004 and as a Met in 2006. The futility of Beltrans quest was capsulized in his at-bat in the fifth inning against the Giants starter, Matt Cain. He hit a ball to right that the wind knocked down, as if some supernatural force was working against him.

Pence was able to get under the ball and make the catch for the third out. When you play right field in this ballpark, you dont know what the ball is going to do, said Beltran, who had a couple of fielding misadventures during the series and also was playing on a hurt left knee. In the aftermath of the Cardinals 6-1 loss on Sunday in Game 6, Beltran, who ended up batting .300 in the N.L.C.S., was asked if his window to play in the World Series was closing. Only God knows that, he said. On Monday, that window closed on the season. The last time Beltran played in a Game 7 for a World Series berth opposite the American League champions, the Detroit Tigers, he was at Shea Stadium, where he had starred nightly throughout the 2006 season. Beltran hit 41 homers and drove in 116 runs, both career highs, that year. So when he came to bat in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded and two out and the Mets trailing the Cardinals by two, it seemed as if Martha Stewart could not have set the table more beautifully for the Mets. Facing Adam Wainwright, Beltran looked at a changeup for a first-pitch strike. Wainwrights second pitch was a curve that Beltran swung at and missed. His third offering was a curve on the outside of the plate that froze Beltran. He struck out looking, ushering in the Mets nuclear winter. The Mets have not been back to the postseason and before this month, neither had Beltran, who joined the Cardinals after finishing the 2011 season with the Giants, who acquired him from the Mets near the trading deadline for Zack Wheeler, a pitching prospect, and cash. Before the season, Beltran told The St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he watched the replay of his atbat against Wainwright the day after the series clincher and then never again. On Sunday, he talked about turning the page. Twenty-four hours later, he was digesting the same old story.

B18

THE NEW YORK TIMES SPORTS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

SAILING

OBITUARIES

Raoul De Keyser, Intuitive Abstract Painter, Dies at 82

By ROBERTA SMITH

ERIC RISBERG/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The AC45s will be used to contest the World Series before the challenger series and the Americas Cup next year.

Youth Is Reshaping A Sport of Experience

By CHRIS MUSELER

By the time Nathan Outteridge won a gold medal in sailing for Australia at the London Olympics this summer at 26, he was already flying high as a helmsman for Team Korea in the Americas Cup World Series. When he considered his options this fall, at least three teams were pursuing him, with salary offers reportedly reaching seven figures. Outteridge, who decided to join Artemis Racing last month, is a sailing superstar. He has won world championships in several classes; this week, he is aiming for another: the A-Class Catamaran World Championship in Islamorada, Fla. He has never before raced the A-Class catamaran, which is an ultralight, single-person racing boat, but they are considered perfect cross-training for an Americas Cup helmsman because of their similarities with the two classes of catamarans being raced in the Cup. Outteridge is part of the cadre of 20-something skippers who is nipping at the heels of the old

PHOTOS BY GILLES MARTIN-RAGET/AMERICAS CUP

Nathan Outteridge, top, has fast boat skills. Terry Hutchinson has years of experience.
guard in the Americas Cup. Professional sailing once had middleaged, seasoned sailors as the top picks for Cup helmsmen. Now, young, champion sailors in one of todays modern racing dinghies and catamarans have what racing teams are looking for to win sailings highest profile event: faster decision-making skills. The Artemis skipper Terry Hutchinson, 42, worked his way into the coveted lead spot to cap a 20-year path, paying his dues selling sails, racing with wealthy yacht owners and filling all the key roles in afterguard of an Americas Cup racer. But when the Cup defender, Larry Ellison, decided to change the racing from big, relatively slow keelboats to wing-sailed catamarans, the younger generation became valuable. Sailors like Outteridge and Peter Burling of New Zealand, a 21-year-old silver medalist at the Olympics, have grown up racing modern, ultrafast dinghies on short courses. Their background turns out to be good experience for racing in the World Series where courses are right up against the shore. The big question before the Americas Cup finals next September is, what will win: youth or experience? In a sport in which experience often dominates, the new Cup format has many teams hedging their bets. Were all breaking new ground here, said Hutchison, whose Artemis A boat finished three places ahead of Outteridges B boat for Artemis at the World Series event in San Francisco earlier this month. The young, keen, passionate thing can take you a long way. When the pressures on, who knows? Thats the beauty of our sport. Its learned. Theres a difference for sure. The top Cup helmsmen from as

far back as the American winner Briggs Cunningham in 1958 were middle-age men who followed a similar apprenticeship to Hutchinsons. Dennis Conner and Russell Coutts had to wait their turns. Conner studied under the 1977 winner Ted Turner. While veteran Cup skippers including Francesco Bruni of Italy and Dean Barker of New Zealand raced in traditional Cup boats, a generation of young sailors around the world were racing on weekends on fast, small boats and winning world championships in Olympic 49ers, A-Class catamarans and the International Moth, which sails clear of the water on foils. Barker, 40, made the leap to catamarans two years ago, and has a head start in AC45s, the class used to contest the World Series in the lead-up to the Cup finals next year. But the new crop of Cup skippers is catching up. The boats require a lot more skill to sail, Outteridge said. It suits those of us who have been sailing this type for the last 10 years.Outteridge credits Team Korea for recognizing the skills of younger sailors with Chris Draper of Britain. Chris jumped in from the 49er circuit and showed potential with Team Korea, Outteridge said. That opened doors for all of us. For sure Ive been given a chance that in the past I would not have seen in 20 years. Draper, 34, is now leading the Italian team Luna Rossa, and Outteridges move to Artemis created an opportunity for another young sailor: Burling replaced him as skipper of Team Korea. Having fast boats and fresh, young faces has played into the hands of NBC, which took a risk by showing Cup racing on network television for the first time in more than 20 years. They are a perfect fit, said Jon Miller, the head of programming for NBC Sports. The younger guys are very media savvy. Social networking is important and they are communicating with the fans right up to the racing. Jed Pearsall, the president of Performance Research, a Rhode Island-based company that specializes in market research for sporting event sponsorship, said Nascar had a similar image issue. All the famous faces were past middle age; the good-old-boy image wasnt cutting it, said Pearsall, also a sailor. Jeff Gordon, who won his first series championship at 24, helped change that image, Pearsall said, and after that, sponsors wanted more. Almost any sport looks to, younger is better, to present a face with more widespread appeal, Pearsall said. In the end, for the Louis Vuitton Cup and the Americas Cup finals next year, someone has to drive the dangerously fast AC72s, catamarans that can ride clear of the water on foils similar to the International Moth class that Outteridge races regularly. Even though Coutts called this Americas Cup a young mans game, he and Hutchinson have won in the World Series. But Coutts recruited the 28-year-old Tom Slingsby, a gold medalist in mens laser, as his tactician. Outteridge is backed up by the Artemis chief executive Paul Cayard, who, like Coutts, is in his 50s. Its a funny dynamic, Hutchinson said. The sailors just coming up in the sport, our generation doesnt know them. With the older guys, theres someone to root for. As the Artemis Racing team prepares its AC72 for Americas Cup trials this winter, Outteridge seems cautious about his role. Its an unusual situation for a guy my age leading a group of guys 15 to 20 years older than me, he said. I have to be careful how I get on. But Coutts sees the writing on the wall for skippers his age. Their careers will definitely be shorter now, he said. But right now, their skills are better.

Raoul De Keyser, a Belgian painter whose evocative, seemingly awkward abstractions both celebrated and questioned his medium, died on Oct. 5 in Deinze, near Ghent. He was 82. He died of natural causes, his family said. Mr. De Keyser became one of the most respected painters of his time, but slowly. For much of his 50-year career he exhibited primarily in Belgium and the Netherlands, achieving international recognition only after his work was included in the 1992 Documenta exhibition in Kassel, Germany, by that years commissioner, the Belgian museum director Jan Hoet. Mr. De Keyser worked with a striking economy of means. His mature paintings often consist of a few sparse patches of paint laid over a monochrome field, suggesting scattered islands and eliciting frequent comparisons to Mondrians early seascapes. They also evoke the remnants of a larger, more assertive painted shape that has been tenderly cut into irregular bits. Nearly all Mr. De Keysers work teeters between abstraction and legibility. The things I see come back in one way or another, he once said. Indeed, a series of especially spare, seemingly abstract paintings of white lines and grids on mostly green backgrounds from the early 1970s were actually based on the chalk lines, goal posts and net of the soccer field near his home. Mr. De Keyser was born in Deinze on Aug. 29, 1930, and lived there all his life. His father was a carpenter. He began to paint on his own as a teenager but soon veered into journalism, writing for daily newspapers. Mr. De Keyser sought artistic training only in his early 30s, studying at the Academy of Fine Arts in Deinze under the painter Roger Raveel. He joined with Mr. Raveel and two others painters to form a Pop Art-oriented group called New Vision and over the next several years produced flattened, thickly painted close-up views of corners of his living

A latecomer to artistic training went on to a 50-year career.

something real, including the flat fields, tangled trees and riverbanks around Deinze, but they also maintained a mysterious ambiguity, refusing to be anything more than painted motifs. They avoided monumentality, however, as well as bravura brushwork and all notions of finish, masterly personality or evolutionary development. His working method was intuitive and relatively permissive, largely free of restrictions or formula, which distinguished him from similarly skeptical painters like Robert Ryman, Blinky Palermo and Daniel Buren. But he also avoided the free-range approach of more antic figures like Sigmar Polke, who marshaled textiles, photographic techniques and unusual materials into his work. Working directly on canvas with a brush and occasionally chalk using a light, even frugal touch, Mr. De Keyser who switched from acrylic to oil paint in the mid-1970s reviewed nearly every mode of abstraction from gestural to geometric, but always avoided extremes. His lines were never ruled, his edges never hard; his loose brushwork was devoid of angst. Mr. De Keyser had his first museum survey at the Royal Museum of Fine Arts in Antwerp in 1970 and numerous surveys and retrospectives thereafter, most recently at the Whitechapel Gallery in London in 2004 and the Kunstmuseum Bonn in Germany in 2009. He had his first solo show in New York at the Brooke Alexander Gallery in SoHo 1995 and subsequently exhibited with the David Zwirner Gallery there. Mr. De Keysers wife, Dina Baudoncq, whom he married in 1952, died in 1984. He is survived by their three sons, Luc, Piet and Jan; six grandchildren; and his companion, Lia Schelkens.

DAVID ZWIRNER, NEW YORK/LONDON AND ZENO X GALLERY, ANTWERP

Drift, a 2008 work by Raoul De Keyser. His mature paintings were often sparse patches of paint laid over a monochrome field. He exhibited primarily in Belgium and the Netherlands.

CHRISTOPHE VANDER EECKEN

Mr. De Keyser began to paint on his own while he was a teenager but later veered into journalism, writing for newspapers.
room, the handle of its sliding glass doors and bits of his garden, as well as schematic images of clouds and horizon lines outlined in black. The paintings ignore the brand-oriented, photo-based direction of American Pop in favor of the more life-based efforts of British Pop artists like David Hockney and Patrick Caulfield, forming one of the less-studied chapters of Pops history. But Mr. De Keyser was always drawn to abstraction. In 1966, after being impressed by a big, bright abstract painting by the American Al Held at the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam, he returned home and painted over the background of a 1964 image of his dog Baron with flat, vivid yellow, retitling the work Baron in Al Held Field. Mr. De Keysers mature images often seemed to be based on

Britton Chance Jr., 72, Designer of Americas Cup Winners

By BRUCE WEBER

Britton Chance Jr., an innovative yacht designer for three Americas Cup winners, died on Oct. 12 in Branford, Conn. He was 72. The cause was complications of a stroke, his sister Jan Chance OMalley said. As a designer, Mr. Chance was known for having a mathematicians precision and a renegades willingness to experiment; he developed, for example, a retractable keel that reduced the drag on a boat headed downwind. He was one of the biggest innovators of the 1970s and 80s, said Jonathan Wright, a friend who was a crew member on many of Mr. Chances boats, including Stars and Stripes, which was captained by Dennis Conner. In 1987, that boat reclaimed the Americas Cup for the United States after its 132-year winning streak had been interrupted by an Australian victory four years earlier. Mr. Chance, who came from a sailing and scientific family his father, a leading biophysicist, was also an Olympic yachtsman made a controversial entrance into the high-stakes and highly nationalistic world of the Cup. In 1967, the yacht Intrepid captured the Cup for the New York Yacht Club, and Mr. Chance was subsequently hired to design a socalled trial horse a development boat to test design elements for a French team that was preparing to challenge Intrepid in 1970. Criticized by some for bringing American know-how to a foreign team, Mr. Chance said at the time that he hoped to use the experience to help him build an even better boat for the United States. Indeed, though the French did not succeed the 1970 challenger was Australian Mr. Chance was subsequently hired to help improve the performance of Intrepid. He lengthened the waterline, the length of the boat that has contact with the water, and it won the Americas Cup again. Britt was commissioned by Bill Ficker, who captained the 1970 Intrepid, Mr. Wright said in a recent interview. He made the boat fuller in the stern, making the waterline longer by increasing the buoyancy in the back of the boat. In 1988 a New Zealand team,

REUTERS

The yacht Stars and Stripes before the 1987 Americas Cup races. With Dennis Conner at the helm, it reclaimed the Cup for the United States four years after a victory by an Australian team.
tween two entirely different styles of boats. The Americans won easily, and legal action ensued. The courts eventually kept the Cup with the Americans, and for succeeding competitions a new class of boat, the Americas Cup class, was defined, ensuring that a similar fiasco would not occur again. Mr. Chance was born in Philadelphia on June 12, 1940, and grew up in Mantoloking, N.J., on Barnegat Bay, where he spent much of his childhood on the water. He studied physics at the University of Rochester and mathematics at Columbia. Though he later taught classes in naval architecture and engineering at Yale, Wesleyan and Trinity, he never earned a college degree. He dropped out to work with the boat designers Ray Hunt and Ted Hood. In addition to his work on Americas Cup yachts, he was the president of Chance & Company, a naval architecture firm in Essex, Conn.; he designed rowing sculls and sailboats in the 5.5meter class that raced in the Olympics.

A gifted sailor had a lifelong interest in building fast boats.

Mr. Chance, who lived in Lyme, Conn., was married and divorced twice. In addition to his sister Ms. OMalley, he is survived by his mother, Jane Earle Lindemayer; a daughter, Tamsin Chance Blue; another sister, Eleanor Chance Burgess; a brother, Peter Earle Chance; four stepsiblings; and five half siblings. An accomplished sailor, Mr. Chance competed in the Americas Cup trials and the Olympic trials, but that was not where his passion was. Its nice out there, he said when asked why he liked ocean sailing. But his main interest was in creating speed. He was a good skipper, his father told Sports Illustrated in 1970, but basically, he always wanted to know why the boat was going fast or slow and what he could do to make her go faster. Hes been that way from the beginning.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Britton Chance Jr. in 1987. In addition to 12-meter yachts, he built Olympic rowing sculls.
exploiting a loophole in the Americas Cup rules, declared a challenge with a 90-foot boat that dwarfed those in the Cups traditional 12-meter class. The result was a bit of a farce; in response, Mr. Conner countered with a smaller, swifter catamaran, designed partly by Mr. Chance, and the Cup races were conducted be-

THE NEW YORK TIMES OBITUARIES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

B19

Russell Means, Who Clashed With Law As He Fought for Indians, Is Dead at 72
By ROBERT D. McFADDEN

Russell C. Means, the charismatic Oglala Sioux who helped revive the warrior image of the American Indian in the 1970s with guerrilla-tactic protests that called attention to the nations history of injustices against its indigenous peoples, died on Monday at his ranch in Porcupine, S.D., on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. He was 72. The cause was esophageal cancer, which had spread recently to his tongue, lymph nodes and lungs, said Glenn Morris, Mr. Meanss legal representative. Told in the summer of 2011 that the cancer was inoperable, Mr. Means had already resolved to shun mainstream medical treatments in favor of herbal and other native remedies. Strapping, and ruggedly handsome in buckskins, with a scarred face, piercing dark eyes and raven braids that dangled to the waist, Mr. Means was, by his own account, a magnet for trouble addicted to drugs and alcohol in his early years and later arrested repeatedly in violent clashes with rivals and the law. He was tried for abetting a murder, shot several times, stabbed once and imprisoned for a year for rioting. He styled himself a throwback to ancestors who resisted the westward expansion of the American frontier. With theatrical protests that brought national attention to poverty and discrimination suffered by his people, he became arguably the nations best-known Indian since Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse. But critics, including many Indians, called him a tireless selfpromoter who capitalized on his angry-rebel notoriety by running quixotic races for the presidency and the governorship of New Mexico, by acting in dozens of movies notably in a principal role in The Last of the Mohicans (1992) and by writing and recording music commercially with Indian warrior and heritage themes. He rose to national attention as a leader of the American Indian Movement in 1970 by directing a band of Indian protesters who seized the Mayflower II ship replica at Plymouth, Mass., on Thanksgiving Day. The boisterous confrontation between Indians and costumed Pilgrims attracted network television coverage and made Mr. Means an overnight hero to dissident Indians and sympathetic whites. Later, he orchestrated an Indian prayer vigil atop the federal monument of sculptured presidential heads at Mount Rushmore, S.D., to dramatize Lakota claims to Black Hills land. In 1972, he organized cross-country caravans converging on Washington to protest a century of broken treaties, and led an occupation of the Bureau of Indian Affairs. He also attacked the Chief Wahoo mascot of the Cleveland Indians baseball team, a toothy Indian caricature that he called racist and demeaning. It is still used. And in a 1973 protest covered by the national news media for months, he led hundreds of Indians and white sympathizers in an occupation of Wounded Knee, S.D., site of the 1890 massacre of some 350 Lakota men, women and children in the last major conflict of the American Indian wars. The protesters demanded Daniel E. Slotnik contributed reporting.

ED ANDRIESKI/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Protesting at a Columbus Day Parade in Denver in 2000.

strict federal adherence to old Indian treaties, and an end to what they called corrupt tribal governments. In the ensuing 71-day standoff with federal agents, thousands of shots were fired, two Indians were killed and an agent was paralyzed. Mr. Means and his fellow protest leader Dennis Banks were charged with assault, larceny and conspiracy. But after a long federal trial in Minnesota in 1974, with the defense raising current and historic Indian grievances, the case was dismissed by a judge for prosecutorial misconduct. Mr. Means later faced other legal battles. In 1976, he was acquitted in a jury trial in Rapid City, S.D., of abetting a murder in a barroom brawl. Wanted on six warrants in two states, he was

A charismatic rebel against injustice who was also a magnet for controversy.
convicted of involvement in a 1974 riot during a clash between the police and Indian activists outside a Sioux Falls, S.D., courthouse. He served a year in a state prison, where he was stabbed by another inmate. Mr. Means also survived several gunshots one in the abdomen fired during a scuffle with an Indian Affairs police officer in North Dakota in 1975, one that grazed his forehead in what he called a drive-by assassination attempt on the Rosebud Indian Reservation in South Dakota in 1975, and one in the chest fired by another would-be assassin on another South Dakota reservation in 1976. Undeterred, he led a caravan of Sioux and Cheyenne into a gathering of 500 people commemorating the centennial of Gen. George Armstrong Custers last stand at Little Big Horn in Montana in 1876, the nations most famous defeat of the Indian wars. To pounding drums, Mr. Means and his followers mounted a speakers platform, joined hands and did a victory dance, sung in Sioux Lakota, titled Custer Died for Your Sins. Russell Charles Means was born on the Pine Ridge reservation on Nov. 10, 1939, the oldest of four sons of Harold and Theodora Feather Means. The Anglo-Saxon

surname was that of a greatgrandfather. When he was 3, the family moved to the San Francisco Bay area, where his father, a welder and auto mechanic, worked in wartime shipyards. Russell attended public schools in Vallejo and San Leandro High School, where he faced racial taunts, had poor grades and barely graduated in 1958. He drifted into delinquency, drugs, alcoholism and street fights. He also attended four colleges, including Arizona State at Tempe, but did not earn a degree. For much of the 1960s he rambled about the West, working as a janitor, printer, cowboy and dance instructor. In 1969, he took a job with the Rosebud Sioux tribal council in South Dakota. Within months he moved to Cleveland and became founding director of a government-financed center helping Indians adapt to urban life. He also met Mr. Banks, who had recently co-founded the American Indian Movement. In 1970, Mr. Means became the movements national director, and over the next decade his actions made him a household name. In 1985 and 1986, he went to Nicaragua to support indigenous Miskito Indians whose autonomy was threatened by the leftist Sandinista government. He reported Sandinista atrocities against the Indians and urged the Reagan administration to aid the victims. Millions in aid went to some antiSandinista groups, but a leader of the Miskito Indian rebels, Brooklyn Rivera, said his followers had not received any of that aid. In 1987, Mr. Means ran for president. He sought the Libertarian Party nomination but lost to Ron Paul, a former and future congressman from Texas. In 2002, Mr. Means campaigned independently for the New Mexico governorship but was barred procedurally from the ballot. Mr. Means retired from the American Indian Movement in 1988, but its leaders, with whom he had feuded for years, scoffed, saying he had retired six times previously. They generally disowned him and his work, calling him an opportunist out for political and financial gain. In 1989, he told Congress that there was rampant graft and corruption in tribal governments and federal programs assisting American Indians. Mr. Means began his acting career in 1992 with The Last of the Mohicans, Michael Manns adaptation of the James Fenimore Cooper novel, in which he played Chingachgook opposite Daniel Day-Lewis and Madeleine Stowe. Over two decades he appeared in more than 30 films and television productions, including Natural Born Killers (1994) and Pathfinder (2007). He also recorded CDs, including Electric Warrior: The Sound of Indian America (1993), and wrote a memoir, Where White Men Fear to Tread (1995, with Marvin J. Wolf ). He was married and divorced four times and had nine children. He also adopted many others following Lakota tradition. His fifth marriage, to Pearl Daniels, was in 1999, and she survives him. Mr. Means cut off his braids a few months before receiving his cancer diagnosis. It was, he said in an interview last October, a gesture of mourning for his people. In Lakota lore, he explained, the hair holds memories, and mourners often cut it to release those memories, and the people in them, to the spirit world.

UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

Russell Means, left, and Dennis Banks in 1973, when they led a protest at Wounded Knee, S.D.

Deaths
Bleemer, Arthur Brodsky, Margery Cahn, Donnie Cooper, Robert Danis, Suzanne Deneen, William Deutsch, Warren Farrell, Michael Fortunoff, Louis Ginion, Wayne Goldberg, Norma Grossman, Herbert Hill-Galanter, E. Hirsch, Gertrude Kauder, Beatrice Knuttel, Lillian Kryshtalsky, Jaroslav Lubin, Rita Natkins, Elaine Noyes, Jose Reis, Janet Ross, Steven Scala, Alice Selwyn, Harriet Walsh, Anne

Deaths

Deaths

Lincoln Alexander, 90, Canadian Trailblazer

By DOUGLAS MARTIN

Lincoln Alexander, the son of a hotel maid and railway porter who became Canadas first black member of Parliament and first black cabinet minister, died on Friday in Hamilton, Ontario. He was 90. David C. Onley, the lieutenant governor of Ontario, announced the death. Mr. Alexander was also Canadas first black lieutenant governor, but when he was elected to the House of Commons in 1968, he said he had tired of being called the first Negro anything. He sought to speak for all victims of injustice, he said. Blacks make up 2.5 percent of Canadas population. With his election to Parliament, he was one of the few urban members of the Progressive Conservative Party to buck the landside vote for Pierre Trudeaus Liberals that year. In the Commons he became a leader in issues like immigration overhaul and urban renewal. When the Conservatives gained power in 1979, he was named labor minister and promoted literacy education to enhance job preparation. Mr. Alexander had a strong personality, bragging that nobody could beat him at working a room and roaring in Parliament that Liberals had bamboo-

GARY HERSHORN/REUTERS

Lincoln Alexander in Toronto in 1986, when he was lieutenant governor of Ontario.

zled the public. Ive never really been in awe of anyone, he once said. When youre 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds and good lookin, you know, youre not in awe of too many people. Lincoln MacCauley Alexander was born in Toronto on Jan. 21, 1922. His parents had come from the Caribbean. He was the only black in his classrooms through high school, except during the two years he lived in the Bronx, from age 15 to age 17. His mother

had taken him and his brother there in a time of marital discord, but she sent him back to his father in Toronto when Lincoln began hanging out on New York streets and carrying a switchblade. After working as a machinist and being a wireless operator for the Royal Canadian Air Force, he studied history and economics at McMaster University in Hamilton, graduating in 1949. He earned a law degree from Osgoode Hall Law School of York University. He was a partner in one of Canadas first interracial law firms before winning election to Parliament. After five terms, Mr. Alexander became chairman of Ontarios workmens compensation board, Ontarios lieutenant governor, a largely ceremonial post, and chancellor of the University of Guelph in Ontario. Mr. Alexanders wife of 51 years, the former Yvonne Harrison, died in 1999. In 2011 he married Marni Beale, who survives him. A son, Keith, and two granddaughters are also survivors. Among the places named for Mr. Alexander is the Lincoln Alexander Parkway in Hamilton, although he never learned to drive and feared traffic. He always sat in the back, real low, he said, so I cant see whats going on.

BLEEMERArthur, 84, of Westport, CT and Truro, MA, after nearly eight years of a noble fight with lymphoma brain cancer. Son of Rose and David, brother of the late Norman. Husband of Barbara, the romance of his life for nearly 59 years. Beloved father of Nancy, Jill (Seth Weitzman), and Jonathan (Angela). Adored grandfather of Jason, Emily, Meredith, Charlotte, Danny and Andrew. Graduate Rutgers, Teachers College, Columbia (Masters Degree and Professional Diploma). Served in U.S Army, in Psychological Warfare during Korean War. Admired and innovative middle school educator, Westport and Darien Public Schools. Supervised student teachers, Sacred Heart University, advocate for Fairfield County educators. Loved travel, history, dancing, Corn Hill, jazz, swing, apples and most of all, his family. BRODSKYMargery Bach, died on October 19, 2012. Two weeks prior to her death she celebrated her 94th birthday with her daughters, granddaughters, their families and her great-grandchildren. She was the beloved wife of the late Samuel Brodsky to whom she was married for sixtythree years. A native New Yorker, Margery embraced the pulse of city life, from its parks to its concert halls. Her volunteer work enhanced the lives of New York City school children and patients at Mount Sinai Hospital. As a graduate of Wheaton College, Margery developed a deep love of New England. Friends and family remember with fondness times spent with Marge and Sam at the weekend home they cherished on Burt Hill Road in New Hampshire. She will be deeply missed by her daughters Joan Brodsky Schur and Alice Brodsky Forcier and by her devoted sister Julia Schwarz, who survives her. A memorial service will be held at the Weill Art Gallery of the 92nd Street Y at ten o'clock the morning of November 1st. Donations in the memory of Margery Brodsky can be sent to the 92nd Street Y at 1395 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY, 10128. CAHNDonnie. Congregation Rodeph Sholom notes with sorrow the death of our long time member, Donnie Cahn, widow of James Cahn. Our deepest condolences to her daughter, Diane Chesin, and all her dear ones. Robert N. Levine, D.D., Senior Rabbi Karen L. Berman, President COOPERRobert L, 80, died at home in Brooklyn, NY, on October 19, 2012. Husband and dearest friend of Alice Pepper Cooper, father of Lisa Philip (Babu) and David Cooper (Sharona); grandfather of Tobias Philip and Eylon, Mia and Talia Cooper, brother of Paul Cooper and Betty Pearle, Robert L. Cooper was Professor of Sociology and Education at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His book Language Planning and Social Change (Cambridge University Press 1989) has been influencing educators and social and political planners for over two decades. The Chinese edition is scheduled for 2013. On retirement, he traveled around the world, dropped his middle initial and published Around the World With Mark Twain (Arcade 2000). From 2010 until twelve days before death, he anonymously published: anchises-anoldmansjournal. blogspot.com. Services will be at Congregation Beth Elohim 274 Garfield Place, Brooklyn, Tuesday, October 23 11:30am. The family will be receiving at home 4:00 to 9:00pm Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday, 10:00 to noon Friday and Sunday. Contributions in his memory may be made to Congregation Beth Elohim, National Public Radio and Prospect Park Alliance. DANISSuzanne, 78, died October 21st at home surrounded by her family. She is survived by her devoted husband, Dr. Martin Podgainy, loving children and step-children, Fran (Judith), Elaine (Matthew) and Robert (Mary Ann), Vivian (Thomas) and Mark (Lisa), beloved grandchildren Andrew, Samuel, Elizabeth, Lila, Edward, Georgia, and Maxine; cherished brother, Alan (Sue) and extended family. She was predeceased by parents, Benjamin and Doris, and brothers Lawrence and Martin. Suzie's selfless unconditional love required the same in return. She found happiness in later years when she married her sixth grade classmate, Marty. Services will be held on Wednesday, October 24th at Temple Beth El, 660 Park Ave., Huntington, NY and interment at Mt. Ararat in Lindenhurst. In lieu of flowers, contributions can be sent to Temple Beth El. DENEENWilliam Francis, 86, in New York City, on October 19, 2012. A dominant figure in American educational film, early career included 50 titles as director; later transitioned to executive roles; Production Chief for Encyclopedia Britannica Films; Founder/CEO Columbia Picture's subsidiary, Learning Corp of America; Founder/CEO Highgate Pictures. If you were an American child in the 60s or 70s, you knew his films if not his name. Bio at www.afana.org. Survived by spouse of 19 years Matthew Heftler; by three sons from earlier marriage to Margaret Schaldenbrand - Daniel, Peter and Paul; and grandchildren Erin, Peter, Zack, Mathieu, Shan, Jeni. Memorial service early 2013, in Detroit.

DEUTSCHWarren, died October 21, 2012. Beloved of Norma Keller and the Keller clan; devoted father of Sarah and Chuck; grandfather of Rachel and Aaron; loving husband of the late Brina Chernov Deutsch. Former clinic director of Pride of Judea Mental Health Center. Warren was always a kind and caring man who was interested in helping others. He will be in our hearts and thoughts forever. Services at Riverside Nassau North Chapels, Great Neck on Thursday, October 25 at 11:30am.

FARRELLMichael A.J.

Chairman and CEO of Annaly Capital Management. A much beloved husband, father, brother and colleague, died peacefully Sunday morning, October, 21, 2012 surrounded by his family at the Lenox Hill Hospital in New York, NY. He was 61. Born and raised in Brooklyn, NY, Mr. Farrell was a longtime resident of Summit,. NJ. He attended the University of New Mexico at Albuquerque and served in the United States National Guard during the Vietnam War. A self made man, Mr. Farrell began his 40 year career in finance with E.F. Hutton. He worked in various positions on Wall Street during his tenure before becoming Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Annaly Capital Management in New York, NY 15 years ago. In addition to Annaly, he served on the Boards of Directors of the National Organization of Real Estate Investment Trusts, the U.S. Dollar Floating Rate Fund, and Wake Forest University. Mr. Farrell was intricately involved in various philanthropic activities, most notably with Oratory Prep in Summit, Wake Forest University, and the Maeve Foundation for Education in Summit, of which he was a director. Survivors include his wife of 29 years, Mary R. (nee Flynn); his four children, Kelly Ziek, Caitlin Farrell, Michael Farrell, and Taylor Farrell; his siblings, Thomas Farrell, Barbara Farrell, Noeleen Farrell, Patricia Washington, Stephen Farrell and Christopher Farrell; his two grandchildren, Paul and Marguerite Ziek; and many nieces and nephews. Relatives and friends are invited to call Tuesday, October 23, 1-3pm and 8-10pm, and Wednesday, October 24, 2-4 and 7-9pm at the William R. Dangler Funeral Home, 309 Springfield Ave, Summit, NJ 07901. The Funeral Mass will be celebrated Thursday, October 25, 10:45am at St. Teresa of Avila R.C. Church, Summit. Private cremation will follow. In lieu of flowers, please make memorial gifts to your local Ronald McDonald House in Michael's Memory.

FORTUNOFFLouis. KRYSHTALSKYJaroslav. UJA-Federation of New York The Ukrainian Institute of mourns the passing of Louis America mourns the loss Fortunoff, whose family has of former Board member and long embraced a commit- President, Jaroslav Kryshtalment to serving the Jewish sky. A dedicated mentor and community and helping peo- leader, Jaroslav also provided ple in need in New York and invaluable philanthropic supthroughout the world. Louis port to many UIA programs was a man of all seasons, and initiatives. His presence combining multifaceted busi- will be greatly missed. Our ness acumen with dedication heartfelt condolences go out and devotion to family. We to his wife, Vera, and to his extend our condolences to his entire family. mother, Helene; his wife, Jennie; their children; and the LUBINRita, 87, of Boca RaFortunoff families. Jerry W. Levin, President ton, Florida. Beloved wife of Alisa R. Doctoroff, Chair of the the late Jerome ("Jerry") LuBoard, John S. Ruskay, bin. Beloved mother of Meryl Exec. VP & CEO and Ron Gallatin and Patty and Joe Finkelstein. Loving GINIONWayne. The New and proud grandmother of York Times records with Alan (Sharyn) Gallatin, Amy deep sorrow the passing of Gallatin, Warren (Stacey) Wayne Ginion associated with Finkelstein, Robyn (Jared) The New York Times from Fischer, adoring great-grandNovember 9, 2009 until the mother of Joshua, Jacob, present. Sasha, Sophie, Rose, Emma, Naomi, Abigayle, Matthew GOLDBERGNorma. Norma and Ryan. There was a Indyck Goldberg died of graveside service held at 1pm Ovarian Cancer. Ms. Gold- on Monday October 22 at berg was formerly the Re- New Montefiore Cemetery, gional Educational Manger Farmingdale, NY. In lieu of for Cablevision. In that ca- flowers, contributions may be pacity she was responsible made to Hands on Tzedakah, for developing and maintain- 2901 Clint Moore Rd. #318, ing relationships with schools Boca Raton, FL 33496 in Nassau and Suffolk counties. She worked with all public and parochial schools, NATKINSElaine, died sudC-Span, HBO. Prior to that denly October 14. Rememshe was producing videos bered with love by her sister for Bloomingdales and Chan- Seena Puro and nieces and nel 21. Norma was married nephew Ned and Sue Puro to her husband Norman for and Hilda Puro and grand53 years. Norman Goldberg niece Tara Puro. She will be served in various high level missed by all. capacities with Christian Dior, Bloomingdales, Diane NOYESJose W. The Board Von Furstenberg, the For- of Directors of The Buttontunoff organizations and Ca- wood Foundation and The blevision. Norma is a gradu- Buttonwood Club mourn the ate of Hunter College and passing of our very esteemed received her Masters of Sci- member and colleague, Jose ence and Education at W. Noyes. His good friendship Queens College and a Mas- and wise counsel will be soreter of Arts, Communication ly missed and we extend our Arts from the New York deepest sympathy to his wife, Institute of Technology. She Gigi, and his entire family. was a volunteer and Board Member for the Girl Scouts of Nassau County and was a REISJanet, 93, of NYC, on member of Women in Cable October 21, 2012. Beloved sisTelevision, NY Chapter. In ter of Rita Stone, aunt of addition, she served as a Diane and Steve Gelon. Legvolunteer for Long Island endary Saks 5th Avenue buyPhilharmonic Associates. er, she began her career at Norma was a teacher for Saks in 1947 as a model in Somany years in The New phie Gimbel's Salon Moderne. York City school system. She then moved on to beShe leaves her Daughter come one of the industry's Jamie Leigh, her son David leading buyers; with her great Goldberg and 4 grandchil- taste, sharp eye, and business dren, Katie, Charlotte, Leyla acumen she built many a designer's career. and Alex. Services will be fashion held Tuesday, October 23rd Upon her retirement from at Temple Sinai in Roslyn Saks in 1991 she opened her Heights. Contributions may own sales agency specializing be made to Memorial Sloan in designer eveningwear. She Kettering or the (OCR) was respected, loved, feared, Ovarian Cancer Research by all. She was an avid theater goer. Much missed by all Fund, NY. who knew her. Graveside GROSSMANHerbert, of service on Thursday, October Tuckahoe, NY, passed away 25, 2012, 11:00am, Mt. Carmel Ridgewood, peacefully on October 21 af- Cemetery, ter a long struggle with Queens, NY. Parkinson's Disease. A very special husband, father and ROSSSteven, 66, Atlanta, GA grandfather. He is survived died unexpectedly on October by his loving wife of 56 years, 20. Loving son and father, he Bernice and children Neil is survived by children, (Mindy), Andrew (Robin), Amanda, Matthew, Hilary, Carol Abramson (Scott); six and Casandra Ross; mother, adoring grandchildren, Jane, Ruth Rosenberg. Dressler's Elysabeth, Sam, Matthew, Funeral Care, 770-451-4999. Alissa, and Will. Funeral service 1:30pm, Tuesday, October 23 at Riverside Memorial SCALAAlice Ferrar, beloved Chapel, Mt. Vernon, NY. wife and aunt, died October 17th at 97 years old. Services HILL-GALANTER, Elizabeth will be held at 10am on OctoHales, MD ber 24th at St. John Evangelist, 55th St. and First Ave.

SELWYNHarriet. January 18, 1931, died October 18, 2012. Beloved sister, aunt and friend; fashion designer. In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to Hospice Partners of Southern California WALSHAnne (nee Clyne), 87, died on October 20, 2012, in Novi, MI, after a brief illness. She was born in New York City, the middle child and only daughter of James and Elizabeth Clyne. She attended Assumption School and Cathedral High School in Manhattan. A lifelong proponent of education, she earned a bachelor's degree from Hunter College, a law degree from Fordham University, and teaching certification from St. Thomas Aquinas College. She was a longtime resident of Rockland County, living in Orangeburg for 10 years and later in Blauvelt from 1968 to 2005. Between 1968 and 1985, she taught at schools in Rockland County, including St. Catharine's School in Blauvelt, St. Anthony's School in Nanuet, St. Agnes Home for Boys in Sparkill, the Pearl River Middle School, and St. Paul's School in Congers. She also volunteered for the Blauvelt Free Library for many years. She was preceded in death by her son Kevin and her husband, John P. Walsh, retired partner of Arthur Young & Co. She is survived by her children: John Walsh, Jr. of Hudson, NH; Maureen Gettings of Lake Forest, IL; Joanne Prier of Riverside, CT; Robert Walsh of Farmington Hills, MI; and Karen Leckey of Boynton Beach, FL; and by 13 grandchildren and two great-grandchildren. Visitation will be on Thursday, October 25, 2-4 and 7-9pm at Moritz Funeral Home, 98 Route 303 South, Tappan, NY. A Mass of Christian Burial will be celebrated Friday, October 26, 10am at St. Catharine's Church, Blauvelt, NY, with burial to follow at Ascension Cemetery, Monsey, NY. In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions may be made to the charity of your choice.

FARRELLMichael A. J. The Board of Directors, Volunteers, and Staff of the Ronald McDonald House of New York wish to express our sincere sympathy of the passing of our dear friend and benefactor, Michael Farrell. Mr. Farrell was both generous and kind to the special kids and families battling cancer at the Ronald McDonald House. Our sincere sympathy and deepest condolences go out to his wife Mary and the entire Farrell family. Respectfully, Stanley B. Shopkorn Chairman of the Board

William T. Sullivan President & Chief Executive Officer HIRSCHGerturde P., on OcRonald McDonald tober 21, 2012. Beloved wife of House New York the late Charles A. Hirsch. Loving mother of Lydia (Stuart) Gordon and Cynthia (the late Herbert) Jacobson. CherFORTUNOFFLouis. ished grandmother of Joel, On behalf of Israel Discount Bradley and Amanda. GreatBank of New York (IDB grandmother of eight. GraveBank) and the entire Israel side service Tuesday 11:30am Discount Bank Group, we at Riverside Cemetery, mourn the loss of our es- Rochelle Park, NJ. teemed Board Member, Louis Fortunoff. Louis served on KAUDERBeatrice, 88, our Board for over six years. beloved wife, mother, grandHis contributions as Chairman mother and friend. It is hard of the Audit Committee and a to imagine life without you. member of the Compensation You're with Sam - Rest in Committee are invaluable. peace. Love, Ronnie & Paul His expert counsel and warm Susan, Stuart & Alison, Jenna, friendship will be truly Nadine, Elana, Samantha, missed. Our heartfelt condo- Chase, and all your relatives lences go out to his wife and friends. Services were Jennie and his family. held Monday October 22, 2012 Sincerely, at "Sinai Chapels" 162-05 HoMichael Goldstein, race Harding Expressway, Chairman of the Board Fresh Meadows, NY. Ehud Arnon, Chief Executive Officer, KNUTTELLillian M., born IDB New York, April 15, 1923 in Baltimore, Dr. Joseph Bachar, MD to Edward J. Cook and Chairman of the Board Anna Kent, passed away on Reuven Spiegel, October 20, 2012. In 1946 marChief Executive Officer, ried Charles Knuttel (d. 1989), IDB Tel Aviv, import manager of J. Aron, and the entire IDB family. Inc. Worked as a secretary in area colleges and lived mainly in Riverdale, N.Y. Survived by her son, Ronald C. Kent, his wife, Sara H. Markham, of Madison, WI, and her grandson, Adam D. Kent, Princeton, NJ. A self-taught pianist and kind person, she will be in our hearts forever. Private services have been held in Madison, WI. To view and sign this guestbook, please visit: www.ryanfuneralservice.com

Died suddenly on October 13 at 56. She was the loving wife of Marc Galanter, MD; sister of Deborah Hales, MD, Thomas Hales, MD, and Barbara Hales; daughter of Marilyn and Donald Hales. Elizabeth was beloved to her family, Dan, Denise, Mara, Josh, Hanna, Cathryn, Margit, Beth, Jim, Ben and Jed. As a psychiatrist, she was devoted and untiring for the well-being of her patients in Scarsdale and Manhattan. She and her husband enjoyed travel to all corners of the world. Service at Riverside Memorial Chapel at 180 W. 76 St., Manhattan on Sunday, October 28, at 10am. Donations to Yeshivat Maharat (3700 Henry Hudson Parkway, Bronx NY 10463) in honor of Elizabeth's training in Judaism.

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THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

C1

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

9 Justices Who Sit In the Eye Of Storms

With its landmark 5-to-4 vote last June to uphold President Obamas health care reform law, the Supreme Court once again became the focus of a national debate that centered on its pivotal and political role in an increasingly partisan America, with public approval of the highBOOKS OF THE TIMES est court in the land sinking to 41 percent in July. The courts evolving internal dynamics under the stewardship of Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and its relationship with President Obama are the subjects of Jeffrey Toobins useful new book, The Oath: a follow-up to his 2007 best seller, The Nine, and a reminder that the presidential election in two weeks is likely to determine the ideological makeup of what has been a narrowly divided court in years to come. Mr. Toobin a staff writer at The New Yorker and senior legal analyst at CNN draws upon not-for-attribution interviews with the justices and more than 40 of their law clerks to serve up a lucid, if sometimes highly opinionated, assessment of the Roberts court. The book focuses

MICHIKO KAKUTANI

RICHARD TERMINE

Gifts of Voice That Keep On Giving

The Oath
The Obama White House and the Supreme Court By Jeffrey Toobin
Illustrated. 325 pages. Doubleday. $28.95.

RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Barbara Cook, top, at Carnegie Hall, and Barbra Streisand, who performed recently at the Barclays Center, have adjusted their art over the years.
At the end of Barbara Cooks remarkable recent concert at Carnegie Hall to celebrate her 85th birthday, several guest artists and colleagues came onstage to pay homage. For me, the most revealing tribute came from an opera singer, the mezzosoprano Susan Graham, who said that CRITICS NOTEBOOK when she was a child in New Mexico in the early 1960s, the first beautiful voice she ever heard was Ms. Cooks, on the original cast recording of The Music Man. I wanted to be you, Ms. Graham told Ms. Cook, who is a passionate and informed opera fan. Ms. Graham said that Ms. Cooks example was in no small measure an inspiration for her own career, a career that she hopes will continue for a little while longer, Ms. Graham added modestly, pinching two fingers together to suggest that even just a bit more was all an opera singer can expect. Then Ms. Graham sang Till There Was You, the beguiling love song that Ms. Cook introduced in The Music Man on Broadway in 1957. The richness, tenderness and effortless soaring power of Ms. Grahams singing made clear that, at 52, she has more than a finger pinch of years ahead of her. Of course, to be singing at 85 is an absurd impossibility for an opera singer, though there have been artists, those who knew what they were doing and had good health, who sang impressively into their 60s, like the great Joan Sutherland. Plcido Domingo is another story. Unable to call it quits, he has remade himself into a baritone, the voice category he first emerged with as a young man, until, note by note,he built his top range and became a tenor. He Continued on Page 5

ANTHONY TOMMASINI

at length on the health care ruling and the bitterly contested 5-to-4 Citizens United decision, which has contributed to the deregulation of the campaign finance landscape. Readers will certainly not agree with all of Mr. Toobins analysis, and there are some unfortunate slips into invective in this volume: at one point he goes so far as to describe Justice Antonin Scalia as becoming a rightwing crank. For the most part, however, Mr. Toobin makes reasoned cases for his interpretations of court rulings, their historical context and their possible social and political consequences. He puts todays conservative judicial activism in perspective with that of the liberal Warren Court of a half-century ago. And Continued on Page 7

Beware Dinner Talk On Identity And Islam

Watching the fierce clash over the salad course during a dinner party in Disgraced, the rollicking new play by Ayad Akhtar, feels at times like observing a hotly contested game of Twister. As two couples exchange observations about faith THEATER and politics in the REVIEW modern world, the intellectual thickets they find themselves in become increasingly tangled. The language grows more testy, tempers begin to flare, and you have the unset-

Always at Home, Wherever He Plays

By NATE CHINEN

CHARLES ISHERWOOD

Disgraced
Claire Tow Theater
BEN SKLAR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

AUSTIN, Tex. The view from the AMD Stage at the Austin City Limits Music Festival, at Zilker Park on a recent afternoon, amounted to a sea of flushed faces under a clear blue sky, and a horizon framed by the downtown skyline. Gary Clark Jr. walked out slowly and took it all in for a moment the sights and the sounds, including a hungry, welcoming cheer before picking up his guitar, stirring an annunciatory squall and striking up the dirty-blues riff from When My Train Pulls In. Call it a homecoming or a victory lap, or maybe a coronation: Mr. Clark, 28, was back in his native Austin after months on the road, winning converts at practically every other major music festival in the country, from the big-time to the boutique. A guitarist of deep magnetism and tremendous feel, prominently hailed by Eric Clapton and Alicia Keys, he brought his cool swagger, his hard-nosed band and a batch of songs from his full-length major-label debut. The album, Blak and Blu, released on Monday by Warner Brothers, presents Mr. Clark as a pop eclectic rather than a straight-up bluesman a point of concern for some of his most impassioned fans. But no apparent tensions were set off by Mr. Clarks sharp, commanding performance here. His singing was suave and self-assured, and his playing struck the usual balance of incandescence and unhurried poise. He seemed glad to be home. And for a town that takes Continued on Page 2

tling sense that someone is going to lose his or her balance and take a hard fall. Youre just not sure who its going to be. The players are a quartet of accomplished New Yorkers of differing races, creeds and, yes, colors, although they have all arrived at the same high plateau of worldly achievement and can agree on the important things, like the tastiness of the fennel and anchovy salad and the banana pudding from Magnolia Bakery. What they cannot agree on and what will ultimately tear apart at least one of the relationships in the play is who they really are and what they stand for, once the veneer of civilized achievement has been scraped away to reveal more atavistic urges. Continued on Page 5

Gary Clark Jr. played to a large crowd in his hometown at the Austin City Limits Music Festival.

His Brothers Keeper and Art Guardian

By FELICIA R. LEE

At first glance the modest living room with parquet floor and track lighting resembles any space with an indifferent housekeeper: papers abound, stacks of paintings lean against walls, an indistinct jumble of items swallows a small table. But then Russell L. Goings starts pulling out what he calls his stuff, and his home improbably transforms into a personal art gallery, one brimming with his extensive collection of work by Romare Bearden, the 20th-century artist best known for his soulful collages of African-American life.

Once a caretaker for Romare Bearden, now shepherding his legacy.

Bearden also happened to be Mr. Goingss longtime close friend. Mr. Goingss Upper West Side apartment has just become a bit less crowded, however. Dozens of items from his collection are on loan to the 92nd Street Y for a multidisciplinary

program that includes an art exhibition, a writers panel, a dance and an educational program for children. The exhibition, beginning on Wednesday and running through Dec. 9, features watercolor and mixed-media works that make up the Odyssey series; portraits of people who helped shape African-American history and culture (including Crispus Attucks and John Brown); and a self-portrait made days before Beardens death, at 75, in 1988. The self-portrait, drawn on a page from a book of Jewish mysticism, has Continued on Page 2

SUZANNE D e CHILLO/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Russell L. Goings must decide how to disperse his Romare Bearden collection.

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THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Bluesman Is Always at Home, Wherever, and Whatever, He Plays

BEN SKLAR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Gary Clark Jr. relaxing after his set at the Austin City Limits Music Festival this month. His first major album, Blak and Blu, was released on Monday by Warner Brothers Records.
From First Arts Page pride in its music culture, his return as a conquering hero signaled a shared achievement. The headliners of this years festival, on different nights, were Neil Young, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and the Black Keys, but Mr. Clarks midday slot on a main stage felt like no less an event, and he was the one on the cover of that weeks Austin Chronicle. One has to go back to Stevie Ray Vaughan 30 years ago to find an Austinite whos had a point in his career where Clark finds himself today, wrote Michael Corcoran, a longtime observer of the scene, in an accompanying profile. Mr. Clark is tall and thin, with a demeanor that turns quiet and watchful in the company of strangers. Without a guitar in his hands, he hardly seems the type to make the boast that opens his new album: I dont believe in competition/Aint nobody else like me around. But onstage he exudes the rakish charisma of a guitar slinger, trained to make a strong impression right out of the gate, and to give each solo the arc of a story. Ill tell you this: If I hadnt grown up in Austin, I dont think Id be doing what Im doing the way Im doing it, Mr. Clark said after his set, during an interview in an Airstream trailer on the festival grounds. I always knew I was into music and wanted to be involved in it, but I was 14 or something when I really checked out the scene and started walking around downtown. You could hear a country band, a blues band, a hip-hop crew, whatever. All on the same strip on the same night. Plugging into the action on Sixth Street and elsewhere, he came under the wing of experienced bluesmen, notably Jimmie Vaughan, Stevie Rays older brother. And he became a fixture way too comfortable here, he said. Things changed decisively after a breakout performance at Mr. Claptons Crossroads Guitar Festival in 2010. Youre gonna know my name by the end of the night, Mr. Clark sang there, in a steamrollering revision of Jimmy Reeds Bright Lights, Big City. Within months he was recording The Bright Lights EP, a four-song calling card produced by Rob Cavallo, the chairman of Warner Brothers Records, and released on that label last year. Blak and Blu was also produced by Mr. Cavallo, with Mike Elizondo, whose credits range from Fiona Apple to Dr. Dre. Because Mr. Clark has earned his fan base mainly through live performances, and because blues-rock partisans are constitutionally wary about the conformist pressure of the music business, the album aroused skepticism months before its release. When the industry gadfly Bob Lefsetz devoted a recent edition of his e-mail newsletter to Mr. Clark, he showered praise but began by saying, He should never put out an album. Mr. Cavallo allowed that the albums lead single, a horn-blaring curtain raiser called Aint Messin Around, drew the ire of the fans that were looking for the big nine-minute jam. Like, What is this? Did Warner Brothers force him to
ONLINE: GARY CLARK JR.

Links to tracks and performance videos:

nytimes.com/music

A musical style as eclectic as the scene he grew up in.

within Austins musical ecosystem, a scene so vibrant and self-sustaining that it can dull the incentive to set out for bigger things a phenomenon that Alejandro Escovedo, the veteran Texas rocker, recently described as the velvet rut. Mr. Clark nodded in recognition at that concept. I found myself getting

do this? He insisted that market strategy played no role in the albums variety, a claim echoed by Mr. Clark. Someone said something to me the other day: People like to keep you where they found you, Mr. Clark said. Im totally comfortable shaking that up. His songs on Blak and Blu nod to Al Green (Things Are Changin), Prince (You Saved Me), Chuck Berry (Travis County) and, less fortunately, Sublime (The Life). The title track suggests the sway of millennial neosoul, and Mr. Clark handles it smoothly. Still, the albums core strength lies in its approximation of what Mr. Clark can do onstage. Rather than subject him to under-the-microphone headphones, said Mr. Elizondo, who played bass on much of the album, I set up studio monitors in the room and cranked the mix out of there, to give him the feel of what he hears live. At times, as on a slow-grinder called Numb and a mash-up of If You Love

Me Like You Say (Little Johnny Taylor, via Albert Collins) and Third Stone From the Sun (Jimi Hendrix), this decision feels inspired. I was thinking that if I ever got to this point, I would love to just put it all out there, and not filter, and not be in a box, Mr. Clark said, referring to both the album and his endless touring. (Hell play the Voodoo festival in New Orleans on Friday, and three-sold-out shows at the Bowery Ballroom in Lower Manhattan in November.) He sounded philosophically calm about his skeptics and his chances of winning them over. His composure was even more evident a short while later, during a broadcast with the Austin radio station KGSR. Perched on a chair in a tiny media tent, cradling an acoustic guitar, he engaged in friendly banter before venturing a solo arrangement of Aint Messin Around, less fiery and locomotive than the version hed played earlier onstage. Distractions were rampant all around him: the deafening clamor of a nearby dance music D.J.; the milling about of his label and management team; his girlfriend, the Australian supermodel Nicole Trunfio, watching raptly from a few feet away. He kept his eyes shut as he strummed and sang, connecting with the instrument, briefly but credibly lost in the song.

His Brothers Keeper And Art Guardian

From First Arts Page never been shown publicly, Mr. Goings said. The historical portraits have never been publicly displayed in New York, and this particular Odyssey (there is more than one version) has not been shown in its entirety in New York in more than 30 years, according to Y officials. The downsizing is about to continue: Mr. Goings, who turned 80 this year, wants to sell the collection. Im doing this because I am at the end of my life, he said recently. Pointing to the messy room, he added, Its time to get a couch. Well known in the art world for his collection, Mr. Goings has lived many other lives. He was a linebacker in the Canadian Football League and a black pioneer on Wall Street who founded First Harlem Securities. He became a published poet in 2009, with The Children of Children Keep Coming: An Epic Griotsong, a book that includes the Bearden art that inspired Mr. Goings. Mr. Goings first met Bearden in 1969, when he was chairman of the Studio Museum in Harlem, and Bearden sat on the board. Mr. Goings bought works from the artist and received some as gifts, assembling a collection that he numbers in the hundreds. During Beardens final years, spent in faltering health, Mr. Goings served as caretaker, giving Bearden baths, feeding him and driving him around. What he did for me was that he al-

SUZANNE D eCHILLO/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Russell L. Goings, who was close friends with Romare Bearden, owns a vast collection of Beardens artwork.
lowed me to get inside of him, Mr. Goings said of his devotion to Bearden, known for his charisma and generosity. And what I mean by that is he took me to museums, he took me to shows, he talked to me, he gave me all kinds of books and he taught me how to see. Mr. Goings was ebullient the other day as he showed off four journals filled with Beardens musings on a wide range of subjects, from jazz to Homer. They were nestled against a plastic container holding 40 hours of cassette tapes recording the two men conversing about many things, often as personal as Beardens light skin color. Mr. Goings also opened drawers and pulled out paintings: a 1956 collage called First Circus; Beardens lefthanded drawings (he trained himself to draw with his left hand, as bone cancer made him lose control in his right); and self-portraits sketched on porous white paper with a black felt-tip pen, made days before his death, showing him slumped in a chair. Mr. Goings said that his loan to the 92nd Street Y was made partly to recognize the pivotal role Jews had played in his life. A Jewish therapist and Jewish school officials helped him as a child struggling with stuttering and dyslexia, he said, and a Jewish firm hired him on Wall Street, as other doors slammed shut. Every time I began to engage life in a way, I was given avenues and presented bridges by my Jewish brothers, Mr. Goings said. I chose the Odyssey and the historical pieces because they build bridges, he continued. They expand awareness and speak to the universality of the Odyssey and the African-American experience and the situation of how we, as African-Americans,

are able to understand the suffering of Buchenwald and Auschwitz and the journey that comes afterward. The exhibition, Romare Bearden: The Paper of Truth: Works From the Collection of Russell Goings and Evelyn Boulware (she is his longtime companion), also provides greater visibility for his holdings, just as Mr. Goings determines their future. Museum curators and a major university are among the institutions that have expressed interest in the collection, Mr. Goings said. Its a courtship, said Khalil Gibran Muhammad, director of the Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture in Harlem. If we could acquire some strategic portion for its research value and exhibition value, it would be fabulous. Mr. Goings said that the money the collection might bring was not his main motivation, adding that he may also donate some items. Do I honor the notion that there is a greater responsibility to a trove that speaks to who we are as a people? he asked rhetorically, when questioned about offers and prices. I want it to go somewhere it will be seen, not put in a cellar. As you can see, I have more resources than revenue. The collection is important to scholars because it shows the evolution of Beardens ideas and technique, said Michael R. Chisolm, an art historian and fine-art appraiser in New York. He appraised Mr. Goingss collection about a year ago. Some of these things are quite revealing, he said, declining to divulge an estimated value for the collection, citing professional ethics. Hes got to make a decision hes got all the work, Mr. Chisolm said of Mr. Goings. Whats going to happen? Mr. Goings said he would take his time deciding the future of his collection because of what is at stake. I have this body of work that is part of the national treasure trove, he said. I have to take care of it so my soul can rest. Ive got to go meet Bearden. You know what hell say to me: What did you do with my stuff? Ive got to be able to face him.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

C3

Arts, Briefly
Compiled by Dave Itzkoff

A Rising Star, Extinguished, in 1980s Chicago

He had everything you could have to be a superstar, the rapper and actor Common says about Benjamin Wilson, his former neighbor on Chicagos South Side. Its a strong statement to make about a high school basketball player. But Benji, a melanTELEVISION choly, absorbing docREVIEW umentary about Mr. Wilsons short life and senseless death, leaves little doubt of its truth. The shooting of Mr. Wilson on the eve of his senior season, when some scouts had labeled him the best high school player in the country, was national news; if you recall the punch-in-the-gut shock of those headlines, you may be startled to realize that it happened 28 years ago, in November 1984. If Ben Wilson had lived to achieve his superstardom, he would be retired by now. His son, born two months before the shooting, played college basketball nearly a decade ago. The directors of Benji, Coodie Simmons and Chike Ozah (credited as Coodie & Chike), embrace that time capsule effect. The film, being shown on Tuesday night in ESPNs 30 for 30 documentary series, roots Mr. Wilsons story in a detailed evocation of time and place: Chicago

MIKE HALE

A South Side athlete whose death made national news.

in the crack years, when gang warfare fed a brutal murder rate, even as the election of Mayor Harold Washington and the arrival of Michael Jordan as a Chicago Bulls rookie meant a spike in black pride. On the South Side, Common wasnt the only future celebrity who happened to intersect with Mr. Wilson. Also testifying to his charisma and prodigious talent are the singer R. Kelly, who played with him, and the journalist Michael Wilbon and the N.B.A. star Juwan Howard, who were his neighbors. But the heart of Benji is the interviews with friends, teammates and brothers, men in their 40s and 50s whose sadness is subsumed in their eagerness to recall the magic he dispensed on the basketball court. Sitting in what appear to be the living rooms or rec rooms of modest Chicago homes, or driving around the old neighborhood, they lean forward into their memories, summoning quick po-

ONLINE: VIDEO

A preview of Benji:
nytimes.com/television

RUTH FREMSON/THE NEW YORK TIMES

TKTS Booth Expanding Ticket Sales Policies

The TKTS booth in Times Square, above, which sells discount tickets for Broadway and Off Broadway shows, is expanding its services to provide more flexibility and options to theatergoers, executives who run the booth said on Monday. Starting this week tickets for both matinee and evening performances will go on sale as soon as the booth opens; matinee tickets have customarily been sold first, with evening tickets sold from 3 p.m. onward. The booth will also begin operating more like theater box offices by selling full-price tickets to future performances of all shows, as well as selling full-price tickets to same-day performances of shows that are not offering discounts at the booth. Until now the Times Square booth has never sold full-price tickets. The expanded services may yield new revenue for the Theater Development Fund, the nonprofit group that runs the TKTS booth and charges a $4 service fee for every ticket sold there. But Victoria Bailey, executive director of the fund, said on Monday that the services were not meant to be money makers she predicted they would only break even and that she did not believe that TKTS would become a direct PATRICK HEALY competitor to theater box offices.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

ESPN, Tuesday night at 8, Eastern and Pacific times; 7, Central. etry and humor. Anywhere there was a goal, we figured we was allowed there, says Sean Wright, describing how he and Mr. Wilson ignored gang boundaries in search of a game. This was what we wanted to be, basketball players, and this is what our city allowed. Describing the grace their mother showed after Mr. Wil-

Benji , about Benjamin Wilson, on

sons death, at 17, his older brother Curtis Glenn says: She handled it like no mother could. She just took it like a man. Or like a strong woman. Mr. Simmons and Mr. Ozah mostly let these voices carry the load, throwing in an occasional animated sequence or truecrime-style effect to recreate events. They dont inject their own voices, but there are implicit critiques of several institutions, including the hospital that did not operate on Mr. Wilson for more than two hours after he was shot. There is also a tickling ambiguity in the films treatment of one of its interview subjects, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who had a prominent role in the media circus that followed the killing. As a final coup the film brings on Billy Moore, who was 17 when he shot Ben Wilson and was released from prison after serving 19 years of a 40-year sentence. In his telling, Mr. Wilsons death had nothing to do with gangs, drugs or robbery it was just about a shove, some angry words and pride, and that may be as sad as it gets.

Pump Boys and Dinettes Making Broadway Return

The 1980s musical Pump Boys and Dinettes will return to Broadway next spring in a new production featuring direction and musical staging by John Doyle (Sweeney Todd), the producers said on Monday. The production is conceived and written by the original team of John Foley, Mark Hardwick, Debra Monk, Cass Morgan, John Schimmel and Jim Wann. A theater will be announced later, as will dates and casting. We are thrilled to bring this musical back for todays audience in a fully interactive and immersive experience with onstage seating and a bar to boot, one of the producers, Abby Lee, said in a statement. Pump Boys and Dinettes is set on Highway 57 between two towns in North Carolina and brings together four guys at a local gas station with two sisters cooking up a storm at a nearby roadside restaurant. The musical opened Off Broadway in 1981 and moved to Broadway at the Princess Theater in February 1982, running for 573 performances. It was nominated for Tony and Drama Desk Awards for best musical.
FELICIA R. LEE

the Apes; the titular primate in Peter Jacksons remake of King Kong; and whatever the heck Gollum is in the Lord of the Rings movies, Andy Serkis is continuing to add to his onscreen menagerie. His performance-capture studio, called the Imaginarium, said that it had acquired the rights to George Orwells parable Animal Farm for a film that Mr. Serkis will direct and act in; he will also produce the film with the studios cofounder, Jonathan Cavendish. We are delighted to officially announce our involvement in bringing this classic yet controversial fable to life, hopefully allowing it to resonate for our times with a combination of a fresh perspective, real emotional heart, a great deal of humor and satire, Mr. Serkis said in a statement. Animal Farm has been adapted for film before: as a traditional hand-drawn animated feature in 1954 (which bowdlerized Orwells original ending); and as a made-for-TV movie in 1999. No release date has been announced for the Imaginariums adaptation of Animal Farm, nor has it been revealed which of its four-legged characters Mr. Serkis might play.

UNITED STATES NAVY

Same Cuba Crisis, Different Angles: 50 Years Later

Companion programs on Tuesday night on PBS are determined to convince 21st-century viewers that the Cuban missile crisis, now a 50-year-old memory for some and a history class footnote for others, was frighteningly close to being the end of CRITICS NOTEBOOK the world. The first, Cuban Missile Crisis: Three Men Go to War, gets so carried away with mushroom clouds and other manipulative imagery that it actually undercuts the solid archival material and illuminating interviews it has assembled. The second, an episode of the series Secrets of the Dead called The Man Who Saved the World, is more effective, taking the time to give a detailed picture of conditions inside a Soviet submarine that almost fired a nuclear-tipped torpedo during a confrontation with Navy ships. Together, the programs are, if nothing else, a reminder that the crisis came down to decisions by a few fallible human beings acting on imperfect information. And whats really scary is to compare those individuals with some of those who now might have or be able to get nuclear weapons. The unstable regimes and outright terrorists in the nuclear market today make the cold warriors of 1962 look like calm, reasoned statesmen. The three men referred to in the title of the Cuban Missile Crisis program are, of course, President John F. Kennedy, Premier Nikita S. Khrushchev of the Soviet Union and Premier Fidel Castro of Cuba. Among those interviewed for the program was Sergei Khrushchev, the premiers son, who makes his father sound like the coolest head in the confrontation. Some of Kennedys advisers, in contrast, seem positively eager to reduce the world to cinders. The program features a lot of people who talk about the moments tension, but it doesnt really make you feel that tension. A bizarre collage near the end, set to the Christmas carol Do You Hear What I Hear?, may even prompt a few giggles among viewers who dont realize that the song was written during, and inspired by, the crisis. In truth, it may get a few chuckles even from those who do know that. The Man Who Saved the World is more successful, taking some time to tell the unsettling story of what happened on a Soviet submarine, one of four sent toward Cuba from the Arctic Circle as the crisis was developing. Each carried a special

Central Park Jazz Event Sets Its Lineup

The saxophonist J. D. Allen, below, the pianist Marc Cary and the Mingus Big Band will be among the 30 acts appearing in Central Park on Nov. 10 during the free Jazz & Colors concert, organizers said on Monday. The lineup for the concert, which will run from noon to 4 p.m. at sites throughout the park, is an eclectic mix of jazz ensembles, from traditional to experimental, playing in diverse styles, from Latin to rock-fusion to swing to bebop. Performers include Gregoire Maret, the harmonica virtuoso; Yosvany Terry, the Cuban saxophone player; and Eric Lewis, or

Documentary Association NEIL GENZLINGER Decides on Nominees

While the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences sorts out changing rules for the Oscars awarded to documentaries having delayed the deadline for voting on its shortlist of candidates until Nov. 26 the International Documentary Association is marching ahead with its own awards process. On Monday it announced five nominees for its feature documentaries award, to be presented in Los Angeles on Dec. 7. They are The Central Park Five, from Ken Burns, Sarah Burns and David McMahon; The Invisible War, by Kirby Dick; The Queen of Versailles, by Lauren Greenfield; Searching for Sugar Man, by Malik Bendjelloul; and Women With Cows, by Peter Gerdehag. The association also named nominees in other categories, including short films and continuing series. The full list is at the associations Web site, documentary .org. MICHAEL CIEPLY

The Soviet submarine B-59, above, from The Man Who Saved the World, on PBS, and the man to whom the title refers, Vasili Arkhipov, left, with his wife, Olga Arkhipova.
M. YAROVSKAYA, A. LABUNSKAYA

Homeland and X Factor Renewals Announced

To the surprise of virtually no one in television, Showtime said on Monday it had ordered a third season of its Emmy-winning drama Homeland, and Fox renewed its fall singing competition, The X Factor, for a third season. Homeland is not the most-watched show on Showtime Dexter still attracts more viewers but the network has never had a show with so much prestige value. Beyond its Emmy win for best drama, Homeland also saw its leads, Claire Danes and Damian Lewis, win best actress and actor awards, and critical acclaim for the series has only increased this season. Ratings for The X Factor have dropped in its second season, as the show is eclipsed by the more successful singing competition on NBC, The Voice. But in a fall season in which Fox has struggled, The X Factor remains a steady performer on two nights. The Voice also made news on Monday, when NBC said it would program three live editions of that show during election week Nov. 5, 7 and 8. The regular Tuesday-night edition will be preempted by election coverage.
BILL CARTER

weapon, as their crews were told; only a few knew that that referred to a nuclear-tipped torpedo. Scarily, the commanders of the submarines had launching authority, needing only the confirmation of the submarines political officer. By chance, one submarine, known as B-59, also carried a third high-ranking officer, Vasili Arkhipov, the captain of the fleet; on that vessel a launching would require three-way approval. If these three men agree, they can unleash Armageddon, the programs somewhat overheated narration says. Overheated describes the conditions inside B-59, as well, because of a malfunctioning cooling system. Re-enactments help underscore how uncomfortable it must have been for the crew, but the submarine was staying submerged as much as possible to keep it from being spotted by American ships and planes. Lack of information was also an issue. The submarines, not hearing much from the Soviet high command, were trying to

commander, Valentin Savitsky, orders that the nuclear torpedo be fired. The political officer agrees; only the refusal by Arkhipov, who died in 1998, prevents it. The details of what went on aboard B-59 came to light only recently, and while it may be an overstatement to say that Arkhi-

povs caution saved the world, the world might well be a different place if that torpedo had been fired. The relevance to our time isnt direct; certainly the prospect that two nuclear giants will square off in a civilization-ending slugfest feels remote at the moment. But its easier than ever to envision that a handful of people with jittery nerves and clouded judgment might somehow acquire a nuclear weapon and do catastrophic damage. As on-the-brink as the Cuban missile crisis was, there may have been more good sense then than there is in some quarters now.

STEVE BERMAN/ THE NEW YORK TIMES

ELEW, a pianist who infuses his jazz with rock dynamics. Also playing sets will be ensembles including the Jazz at Lincoln Center All-Stars and Mitch Frohmans Latin-Jazz Quartet. Scheduled during the peak of fall foliage, the concerts theme is autumn in New York. The ensembles will all play the same two sets of songs, which have been chosen either because they are an artists expression of love for the city or for the season. The first set includes Thelonious Monks Straight No Chaser, Billy Strayhorns Take the A Train, John Coltranes Central Park West and Wayne Shorters Fall. JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.

When an outcome hinged on the choices of men who were, well, human.
figure out what was going on by listening to American radio, and those reports were somewhat inflamed. They werent getting communications from Moscow, Thomas Blanton of the National Security Archive says in the program. They were listening to Miami radio stations. On Miami radio the stories are about impending U.S. invasion of Cuba. On Miami radio its descriptions of the flotilla offshore. Its descriptions of total mobilization. Though other accounts paint the incident less dramatically, in this telling the sense of panic on the submarine grows to the point that when the Navy spots B-59 and drops depth charges to try to get it to surface, the submarines

Motion-Capture Version Of Animal Farm Planned

Having portrayed such memorable motion-capture creatures as Caesar, the rebellious chimpanzee of Rise of the Planet of

C4

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Unsettling, But Moving To the Soul

With Lincoln Centers White Light Festival now in its third season, its programming is better than ever, even though, or perhaps because, its mission has broadened. While the festival was started in 2010 to survey what it called the spiritual dimenMUSIC REVIEW sion of music, its aim has subtly but crucially shifted to explore music and arts power to reveal the many dimensions of our interior lives. Now, the organizers say, the goal is to offer work that expands our spirit rather than programs that are themselves intrinsically spiritual.
JULIETA CERVANTES FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Paul Lewis playing a program of Schuberts last three sonatas on

Saturday at Alice Tully Hall as part of the White Light Festival. It is hard to say whether Schuberts three final piano sonatas fall under even this more general rubric, whether the sense of mystification and frustration they can cause should properly be described as expanding our spirits. Presented as part of White Light on Saturday evening at Alice Tully Hall, Paul Lewiss sensuously beautiful readings of the sonatas seemed to leave the audience, as a good performance of these wandering works should, a bit disoriented, as if awakened from a strange and not entirely pleasant dream. Schubert wrote the sonatas in the months before his death, at 31, part of a burst of brilliant activity while his health faltered. It is tempting to see in their awkward pauses and fractured melodies a young composer struggling with mortality and trying to secure his place in the musical tradition. The gently breathless motif in the first movement of the Sonata in B flat (D. 960) recalls the opening of Beethovens Sonata No. 30, one of many ways Schubert used these works to commune with his great predecessor. The pianist Alfred Brendel, one of Mr. Lewiss mentors, used the phrase listening into silence to describe Schuberts re-

ZACHARY WOOLFE

The White Light Festival continues through Nov. 18 at Lincoln Center; (212) 721-6500, whitelightfestival.org.

visions to the sonatas. It was at this elusive quality of finding the works meaning in the gaps that Mr. Lewis excelled. In the first movement of the middle Sonata in A (D. 959), he ever so slightly elongated the pause in the opening statement, emphasizing its architecture; a few minutes later he used the breath after a glittering run to turn the velvety low note that followed it into something unexpectedly profound. Near the end of that sonata, with a solemn march in the left hand and frisking triplets in the right, he found in Schuberts broken phrases an intensely moving demonstration of a man rethinking ideas and changing his mind. Throughout the recital Mr. Lewiss touch was sensitive and sure, his shaping of the line natural, his tone clear and warm. He never shied away from the sonatas fundamental lack of sentimentality. My resistance to thinking of them as spirit-expanding may have been my own preconception that so-called spiritual music must be somehow uplifting. The Schubert sonatas turn out to be perfect for White Light: reminders that inward exploration is often far from consolatory.

Caf Tacvba
El Objeto Antes Llamado Disco (Universal Music Latino)
The great Mexican rock band Caf Tacvba has made its first album in five years, and, as usual, it tried a new idea. El Objeto Antes Llamado Disco was recorded before studio audiences of a few hundred people in Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Los Angeles and Santiago, Chile. There are no applause or interruptions. Aside from the room tone audible through Joselo Rangels atmospheric electric guitar

New Music
sound, and a few deep intakes of breath by the singer Rubn Albarrn, you wouldnt guess that the songs were recorded live. (Its a feat of audio, and of producers understanding a band. Though Caf Tacvba has a general philosophy of discontinuity including switching the u to a v in its name a few years ago it has held steady for 20 years with its producers Gustavo Santaolalla and Anibal Kerpel.) The band did it this way, Mr. Albarrn has explained, because songs get better when played in front of people who dont know them. These sessions were a more controlled form of public debuts. Perhaps even better, the band tried an old idea: using a rhythm machine instead of a live drummer. That had been part of its sound through Revs/Yo Soy in 1999, before making two albums with Los Angeles session drummers. Those earlier albums life with humility. Mr. Albarrn, an astonishing singer, brings his full game: his growl and his teenage whine, his full-throat ballad sound, his phasing effect on long vowels by closing his mouth around them or sticking his tongue out. But what really seems new on El Objeto is its degree of introspection. Also, while its lyrics can be as fractured and imagistic as ever, emotionally its the warmest album Caf Tacvba has made. Zopilotes, in waltz time with a chiming guitar line, sounds like a future wedding-dance standard, though the words describe buzzards circling in the sky. What theres less of is surprise: the jarring beauty or wit or strangeness, mood shifts, bursts of compositional ambition that made the groups records at least since Re in 1994 some of the most satisfying documents in pop from anywhere in the world. But the band also lets you know that it hasnt lost interest in its old achievements. Andamios is Caf Tacvba at its best. It proceeds from straight, spiky eighth-note new wave to a brief middle-Easternlike bridge, moving through two key changes that you feel in your stomach. It its final strain Mr. Albarrn yields the microphone to two other members in the band, and by the time its finished the song has built a completely different atmosphere from what it started with.
BEN RATLIFF

So yeah, Im rapping now Let the hatin begin Now that the ground rules have been established, lets stipulate that Mr. Leslie is an adept producer and multi-instrumentalist, and that he made this album practically by himself, complete with a series of stylish short films. Les Is More has sleek continuity and a human touch. Its warmer than most of whats on hip-hop radio, if hardly more original. Mr. Leslie has cited Kanye West, another producer cum rapper, as one of his touchstones here; another unavoidable comparison is to Drake, who has blurred the line between rapping

BROADWAY
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ANNIE

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PETER AND THE STARCATCHER

"A visceral, deeply human and surprising revival." - Newsday Tonight at 7 TRACY LETTS AMY MORTON Steppenwolfs Production of

Tonight & Tomorrow at 7:30PM! Signature Theatre presents by David Henry Hwang directed by Leigh Silverman Tue, Wed, & Fri at 7:30; Sat at 2&8; Sun at 2&7:30 212-244-7529 signaturetheatre.org The Pershing Square Signature Center 480 West 42nd Street

GOLDEN CHILD

Carrie Coon Madison Dirks Directed By PAM MACKINNON Tue 7; Wed 2; Thu 7; Fri 7; Sat 2&8; Sun 3 Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 VirginiaWoolfBroadway.com Booth Theater, 222 West 45th St

EDWARD ALBEES WHOS AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOOLF?

PERFORMANCES BEGIN TUESDAY! Signature Theatre presents by August Wilson directed by Ruben Santiago-Hudson Tue-Fri at 7:30; Sat at 2&8; Sun at 2&7:30 212-244-7529 signaturetheatre.org The Pershing Square Signature Center 480 West 42nd Street

INGENIOUS! A triumph of stagecraft. New York Observer Tonight at 7

The Big Musical About the Little Tramp Tu 7; We 2&7:30; Th 7; Fr 8; Sa 2&8; Su 3 Telecharge.com / 212-239-6200 www.ChaplinBroadway.com Barrymore Theatre 243 West 47th Street

CHAPLIN THE MUSICAL

TONIGHT AT 7 "IMPOSSIBLE TO RESIST." -New York Times Critic's Pick Broadway's Best Party Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Tue 7; Mon, Thu-Sat 8; Sat 2; Sun 3 & 7:30 www.RockOfAgesMusical.com Helen Hayes Theatre (+), 240 W 44th St.

THE PIANO LESSON

ROCK OF AGES

" Broadway's Biggest Blockbuster " The New York Times Tonight at 7 Tu & We 7; Th-Sa 8; We & Sa 2; Su 3 Ticketmaster.com or 877-250-2929 Groups: 646-289-6885/877-321-0020 WickedtheMusical.com Gershwin Theatre(+) 222 West 51st St.

WICKED

EDGY, INTIMATE, AND AUTHENTIC! The New Yorker Tonight at 7 Tue-Thu 7; Fri & Sat 8 Wed & Sat 2; Sun 3 Telecharge.com/212-239-6200 www.ojtjonstage.com The Westside Theatre, 407 West 43rd St.

TICKETS ON SALE NOW Previews Begin November 8 Lincoln Center Theater presents By Clifford Odets Directed by Bartlett Sher Tue-Sat at 8; Wed & Sat at 2; Sun at 3 Telecharge.com 212-239-6200 Groups 12+: 212-889-4300 www.lct.org Belasco Theatre (+), 111 W. 44 St.

Tonight at 8 CAROLEE CARMELLO A NEW MUSICAL with GEORGE HEARN Book & Lyrics by KATHIE LEE GIFFORD Music by DAVID POMERANZ & DAVID FRIEDMAN Directed by DAVID ARMSTRONG Ticketmaster.com or 877-250-2929 Tue-Sat 8; Wed & Sat 2; Sun 3 ScandalousOnBroadway.com Neil Simon Theatre(+) 250 W. 52 Street

SCANDALOUS

OFFBROADWAY

OLD JEWS TELLING JOKES

GOLDEN BOY

LIMITED ENGAGEMENT BEGINS NOV 8 From the Best-Selling Novel A new play by Aaron Posner Adapted from the novel by Chaim Potok Directed by Gordon Edelstein Telecharge.com (212) 239-6200 AsherLevThePlay.com Westside Theatre (+) 407 W. 43rd St.

MY NAME IS ASHER LEV

Tonight at 7 and Tomorrow at 2 "Louisa Bradshaw is riveting as Marilyn Monroe!" Joe Franklin, Bloomberg Radio "Louisa Bradshaw embodies Marilyn/Norma Jean!" Adam Rothenberg, CallMeAdam.com Norma Jean & Marilyn in Purgatory Written & Composed by Walt Stepp Sun 2; Tues 7; Wed 2 & Sat 4:30 Telecharge.com or 212.239.6200 Actors Temple Theatre 339 W. 47th St.

BEST MUSICAL 2006 Tony Award Winner Tonight at 7 "THE MOST EXCITING MUSICAL IN YEARS!" ChicagoTribune Tue-Thu 7; Fri & Sat 8; Wed & Sat 2; Sun 3 Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Group Discounts (15+): 877-536-3437 JerseyBoysBroadway.com August Wilson Thea(+) 245 W. 52nd St.

SIREN'S HEART:

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877-250-2929 or Ticketmaster.com Mon,Tu,Th 7:30; Fr 8; Sa 2 & 8; Su 1 & 7 SpiderManOnBroadway.com Foxwoods Theatre (+), 213 W. 42nd St.

SPIDER-MAN TURN OFF THE DARK

TONIGHT AT 8 "THE SHOW ROCKS!" -NY Times Experience the Phenomenon "A SENSATION!" - TIME Magazine 1-800-BLUEMAN - BLUEMAN.COM Mon-Fri 8, Sat-Sun 2,5&8 Groups of 15+: (212) 260-8993 Astor Place Theatre, 434 Lafayette St.

BLUE MAN GROUP

Tonight at 8 "BRILLIANT, EXUBERANT AND INFECTIOUS." Holden, NY Times Tue-Fri at 8; Sat at 3 & 8; Sun at 2 & 5:30 Ticketmaster: (800) 982-2787 Groups 10+: toll free (855) 203-9980 www.stomponline.com Orpheum Theatre, Second Ave at 8th St. NYT CRITIC'S PICK "delightful to watch" TIME OUT NEW YORK "Four Stars"

STOMP

Tonight at 7 DISNEY and CAMERON MACKINTOSH present Tickets & info: MaryPoppins.com or call 866-870-2717 Groups (15+): 800-439-9000 Tue-Thu 7; Fri 8; Sat 2 & 8; Sun 1 & 6:30 New Amsterdam Thea(+) B'way & 42 St.

MARY POPPINS

"A MUST-SEE BROADWAY EVENT THIS SEASON!" - The Wall Street Journal Tonight at 8 JESSICA DAVID DAN CHASTAIN STRATHAIRN STEVENS with JUDITH IVEY by RUTH & AUGUSTUS GOETZ Directed by MOISES KAUFMAN Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Tue-Sat 8; Wed & Sat 2; Sun 3 TheHeiressOnBroadway.com Walter Kerr Theatre(+) 219 West 48 Street

favored thin, cheap-sounding beats made with early digital equipment, which gave the songs modesty even as the group moved toward greater depth and complexity in every other part of its music and became one of the most popular rock bands in Latin America. The rhythm machine grounded it in the small-budget 80s new wave that its members had all been formed by; it was an instrument of counterintuition. And so it is here. Its good to have it back. Some of the new songs connect to Tacvbas past: the implication of son jarocho, the traditional Veracruz string-band music, in Olita del Altamar (combined with surf guitar and machine beats); the warped disco in Yo Busco; the episodic structure and changes of key in Andamios; the postmodern bolero of De Este Lado del Camino, the albums first single, a song that seems to be about accepting ones circumstances in

Ryan Leslie
Les Is More (NextSelection Lifestyle Group/BDG/RED Distribution)
Ryan Leslie sees haters lurking almost everywhere on Les Is More, his third album as a solo R&B artist and, more to the point, his first as a rapper. Its a pre-emptive defense mechanism and a sly form of self-aggrandizement, as he illustrates with Glory, the albums overture, a catalog of career frustrations that he offers as proof of his tenacity. Why is he rapping now? He raises the question, and awkwardly deflects it: Its in your heart to hate Its in my heart to win

and singing so easefully that it no longer seems exotic. Mr. Leslie shifts smoothly from croon to patter, but he hasnt yet established a rap style strong enough to claim as his own. Instead hes a magpie, trying out a Kanye cadence here, a Rick Ross construction there and conveying more intelligence than wit. Lyrically he favors boilerplate jet-set luxury, occasionally spicing things up with some patronizing pillow talk (Dress You to Undress You) or a halfhearted glimpse of past struggle (The Black Flag). He does some of his most engaging work on Maybachs and Diamonds, a love song with a rare flicker of selfdoubt; and Swiss Francs, on which he breezily recalls his early graduation from Harvard, reflects on the rate of currency exchange, and observes, Theres too many haters, theres only one of me. Its an open question which of those statements rings truer on this album, a marvel of multitasking that cant possibly incite as much disdain as Mr. Leslie seems to want. If Les Is More is less an auteur statement and more a vanity project, its because he allows no tension beyond the certainty of his criticism. By now he surely knows that antagonism is easier to rail against than ambivNATE CHINEN alence.

THE HEIRESS

Performances Begin Friday! "5 Stars!" - San Francisco Examiner A New Play by Eve Ensler Directed by Jo Bonney Tue-Fri 7:30, Sat 8, Wed & Sat 2, Sun 7:30 TicketCentral.com or 212.279.4200 www.EmotionalCreature.com The Pershing Square Signature Center 480 West 42nd Street

EMOTIONAL CREATURE

THE OLD MAN AND THE OLD MOON

PigPen Theatre The Gym at Judson 243 Thompson Street at West 4th Street Tues-Fri, 8pm, Sat, 2 & 8pm, Sun, 3pm www.sohoplayhouse.com 212-691-1555

Pop Acts Go to the Highest-Bidding City

By BEN SISARIO

Tonight at 7:30 2012 TONY AWARD WINNER! Best Original Score Best Choreography DISNEY presents Tickets & info: NewsiesTheMusical.com or call (866) 870-2717 Groups (15+) 800-439-9000 This Wk: T-W 7:30; W 2; F 8; Sa 2 & 8; Su 3 Nxt Wk: M,T,Th 7:30; F 8; S 2&8; S 1&6:30 Nederlander Theatre (+) 208 W. 41st St.

NEWSIES

The Landmark Musical Event Tickets & info: LionKing.com or call 866-870-2717 Groups (15+): 800-439-9000 Tu-We 7; Th-Fr 8; Sa 2 & 8; Su 1 & 6:30 Minskoff Theatre(+), B'way & 45th Street

THE LION KING

Tonight at 7 DISNEY presents

"EXTRAORDINARY!" - Brantley, NY Times Extended through Nov 4 only! by Simon Stephens directed by Gaye Taylor Upchurch Tue-Fri at 8; Sat at 2&8; Sun at 3 212-279-4200 AtlanticTheater.org The Linda Gross Theater 336 West 20th Street

HARPER REGAN

"EXTRAORDINARY!" -The New Yorker Tonight at 7:30 A New Play by NINA RAINE Directed by DAVID CROMER Tu-Fr 7:30; Sa 2:30 & 7:30; Su 2:30 & 7:30 SmartTix.com or 212-868-4444 www.TribesThePlay.com Barrow Street Theatre (+), 27 Barrow St.

TRIBES

THE HILARIOUS TONY-WINNING NEW MUSICAL! Tonight at 7 MATTHEW BRODERICK KELLI O'HARA

Music & Lyrics by GEORGE GERSHWIN & IRA GERSHWIN Book by JOE DIPIETRO Directed and Choreographed by KATHLEEN MARSHALL Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Tu&Th 7; We, Fr&Sa 8; We&Sa 2; Su 3 NiceWorkOnBroadway.com Imperial Theatre (+), 249 West 45th Street

NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT

Tonight at 7 Visit Telecharge.com or call 212-239-6200/800-432-7250

Mon 8; Tue 7; Wed-Sat 8; Wed & Sat 2 Grps: 800-BROADWAY or 212-239-6262 Majestic Theatre(+) 247 W.44th St.

THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

"Superbly staged and wonderfully acted! FALLING SOARS!" - New York Post Tickets From Only $39.50 Group Discounts 10+ 212.382.3410 Tu 7, W 2 & 8, Th & F 8, Sa 2 & 8, Su 3 Ticketmaster.com or 800.982.2787 Minetta Lane Theatre - 18 Minetta Lane FallingPlay.com

FALLING

A Play by Christopher Durang Directed by Nicholas Martin Tue-Sat at 8; Wed at 2; Sun at 3 Telecharge.com 212-239-6200 www.lct.org Mitzi E. Newhouse Thea(+) 150 W. 65 St.

VANYA AND SONIA AND MASHA AND SPIKE

PREVIEWS BEGIN THURSDAY Lincoln Center Theater presents

Tonight at 7 WINNER! BEST MUSICAL 2012 TONY AWARD A New Musical Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Tues 7, Wed-Sat 8, Wed & Sat 2, Sun 3 OnceMusical.com The Jacobs Theatre (+) 242 W. 45th St.

ONCE

Now thru January 6 Only! Tonight at 7 BEST PLAY! 2011 Tony Award Winner Lincoln Center Theater presents A National Theatre of Great Britain Production Tue 7; Wed-Sat 8; Wed & Sat 2; Sun 3 Telecharge.com or 212-239-6200 Groups 12+: 212-889-4300 WarHorseOnBroadway.com Vivian Beaumont Theater (+) 150 W.65 St.

"A Godsend!" - Ben Brantley, NY Times "Funniest 100 minutes on stage!" - WCBS

WAR HORSE

Tu 8, W 2 & 8, Th & F 8, Sa 2 & 8, Su 7:30 Telecharge.com or 212.239.6200 47th Street Theatre - 304 W. 47th Street ForbiddenBroadway.com

FORBIDDEN BROADWAY: ALIVE AND KICKING!

Andrew Bird, a songwriter and multi-instrumentalist on the highbrow end of indie-rock, has played at Carnegie Hall and in clubs from San Francisco to Beijing. But he has barely been to Latin America, despite a growing audience there. For even the most widely traveled musicians big parts of the planet remain underexplored territory; without clear information on audience demand, they are often considered too risky to visit. Some crowdfunding sites are starting to change this geography, however, letting fans raise money to bring their favorite bands to town and mitigating artists risk in traveling to new places. On Tuesday Mr. Birds fans in Latin America can start bidding for him to play six shows there in February. Twelve cities are contenders, including big ones like Rio de Janeiro and So Paulo in Brazil, as well as less common tour stops like Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; and Caracas, Venezuela. The first six cities with 250 provisional ticket sales will get the dates.

The campaign is being run by Songkick, a Web site that alerts its users about shows by their favorite acts. Founded in 2007, the site has seven million users a month and partnerships with Spotify, YouTube and MTV. Now it has developed Detour, which adapts the Kickstarter moneyraising model to let fans essentially book a tour. The first problem we started to solve was the frustration with missing out on concerts, Ian Hogarth, its chief executive, said in an e-mail over the weekend. Another side to that frustration is the impatience you have when an artist you love never comes to your city. Detour is our attempt to help fix that. Detour, along with a handful of other sites like Gigfunder, works by letting fans place advance orders for tickets, which are charged only if a certain threshold is reached and therefore the concert takes place. This system reduces the guesswork of booking a tour in an unfamiliar area, where a band might have plenty of Facebook followers but no way of knowing how many of them would buy tickets, said Erik Selz, Mr. Birds booking agent.

Aside from two shows in Mexico City, Mr. Bird has never played any markets in Latin America, Mr. Selz said. Songkick, which is based in London, experimented with crowdfunding a few times over the last year. One campaign, with the electronic dance group Hot Chip, revealed its viral potential. Three English cities off the beaten tour track were offered the chance for a show, but once fans organized in one of them, Folkestone one sent 2,000 e-mails to friends to get them to pony up their bids exploded, besting those poor Hot Chip enthusiasts in Stoke-on-Trent and York. For Mr. Birds tour Songkick is acting as the promoter and ticket seller, taking the bulk of the risk; any profit it makes will come out of ticket sales after it pays expenses, including fees to Mr. Bird and local promoters who will help put on the shows. If the tour is a success, it could serve as a model for others. The hope, Mr. Selz said, is that a handful of superfans could take it upon themselves to market the show beyond purchasing the ticket. Theyll have a stake in having the tour land in their city.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

C5

On a Political Stage, Its Gershwin by a Landslide

Satire is what closes on Saturday night, the playwright George S. Kaufman said when the wry Gershwin musical Strike Up the Band, in which an American cheese tycoon persuades the government to declare war on Switzerland to maintain a cheese monopoly, lasted barely a week after its opening MUSIC night in 1927. But satire REVIEW that pokes fun at perennial human foibles often ages well. Politics has long provided delicious fodder for artists across the creative spectrum, including George and Ira Gershwin. And after Strike Up the Band they created Of Thee I Sing and Let Em Eat Cake.

New York Festival of Song David Garrison,

far left, and Steven Blier in Mr. Gershwin Goes to Washington at Merkin Concert Hall on Saturday.

VIVIEN SCHWEITZER

The writer Laurence Maslon adapted musical and spoken excerpts from these three works to create Mr. Gershwin Goes to Washington, which had its premiere in 1997 for the Ira Gershwin centennial. Steven Blier, the pianist and artistic director of the New York Festival of Song, thought that compilation satire would be an ideal way to celebrate the organizations 25th season. The WNYC host Leonard Lopate was a guest in the performance at Merkin Concert Hall on Saturday evening, a calm, wry voice holding court amid the antics of the screwball politicians. The updated script contained references like occupy and malarkey. I see binders full, Mr. Lopate said as the presidential candidate John P. Winter-

green, portrayed with grinning charisma by Marc Kudisch, wondered how his campaign was faring with women. Forty-seven percent of this country were crudely written off by Gov. John P. Tweedledee, portrayed with comic panache by David Garrison. Mr. Garrison also elicited plenty of laughs as other characters from the Gershwin musicals, including Alexander P. Throttlebottom, Wintergreens goofy vice president; the French representative to the League of Nations; and the cheese magnate. The soprano Lauren Worsham charmingly petulant as the ditsy Southern belle Diana Devereaux, Wintergreens intended wife sang with a sultry, rich voice in I Was the Most

HIROYUKI ITO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Beautiful Blossom. But Wintergreen falls instead for the sensible Mary Turner, winningly enacted by another soprano, Anne-Carolyn Bird, who sang her numbers with flair.

Mr. Blier was joined by the pianist Joseph Thalken. The pace flagged at times during the almost two-hour intermissionless show, but overall it was lively and entertaining. It was prefaced by some offstage politics: a protest outside the Kaufman Center (which houses Merkin Concert Hall), part of a labor dispute between Kaufman administrators and the stagehands union. George S. Kaufman would no doubt have been happy to see these satires, freshened by a stream of contemporary references, ending Saturday night on a high note.

Dinner Talk On Identity And Islam

From First Arts Page Disgraced, which opened on Monday night at Lincoln Centers Claire Tow Theater in a sleek production directed by Kimberly Senior, is a continuously engaging, vitally engaged play about thorny questions of identity and religion in the contemporary world, with an accent on the incendiary topic of how radical Islam and the terrorism it inspires have affected the public discourse. In dialogue that bristles with wit and intelligence, Mr. Akhtar, a novelist and screenwriter, puts contemporary attitudes toward religion under a microscope, revealing how tenuous self-image can be for people born into one way of being who have embraced another. The principal characters are a married couple living the Manhattan high life: Amir Kapoor (the spiky, excellent Aasif Mandvi of The Daily Show With Jon Stewart), a corporate lawyer at a major firm specializing in mergers and acquisitions, and Emily (Heidi Armbruster), an artist whose profile is on the rise. They share an Upper East Side apartment lusciously upholstered in furnishings from the latest high-end design catalogs. (The set, by Lauren Helpern, offers its own witty commentary on the characters identities.) Amir was born in Pakistan and raised Muslim, but he has thoroughly left his beginnings behind. Emily has far more respect for Islam and employs imagery from Islamic art in her work; Amir derides his forefathers religion as a backward way of thinking, and being. (For purposes of his career, he doesnt mind if people assume that hes Indian.) Secure as he seems to be in his assimilated life hes expecting to be made a partner soon Amir cannot entirely shake the responsibilities that family and his former faith impose. His nephew himself restyled as Abe Jensen after being born Hussein Malik has become agitated about the arrest of a local imam who, he feels, is being unjustly persecuted. At Emilys insistence, Amir reluctantly agrees to participate in the case. His appearance in court in support of the imam, though hes not acting as his official counsel, becomes a matter of public record and private trouble when his presence is mentioned in an article in The New York Times. It also becomes prime fodder for intensive debate when Amir and Emily host that intimate dinner for four. Their

SARA KRULWICH/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Heidi Armbruster and Aasif Mandvi as a married couple hosting a Manhattan dinner party in Disgraced, by Ayad Akhtar, at the Claire Tow Theater.

Disgraced
By Ayad Akhtar; directed by Kimberly Senior; sets by Lauren Helpern; costumes by Dane Laffrey; lighting by Tyler Micoleau; sound by Jill B C Du Boff; stage manager, Megan Schwarz Dickert; managing director, Adam Siegel; production manager, Jeff Hamlin; LCT3 artistic director, Paige Evans. Presented by LCT, Lincoln Center Theater, under the direction of Andr Bishop and Bernard Gersten, by arrangement with the Araca Group. At the Claire Tow Theater, 150 West 65th Street, Lincoln Center; (212) 239-6200, telecharge .com, lct3.org. Through Nov. 18. Running time: 1 hour 20 minutes. WITH: Heidi Armbruster (Emily), Erik Jensen (Isaac), Aasif Mandvi (Amir), Omar Maskati (Abe) and Karen Pittman (Jory).

guests are Jory (Karen Pittman), Amirs African-American colleague who is also on the rise at his firm, and her boyfriend, Isaac (Erik Jensen), a Jewish art curator who is putting together a show that will be a good fit for Emilys art. Amirs participation in the case

opens up a discussion of the history of Islam and its tenets that becomes a tense set-to when he reveals some unexpected sensitivities. Seething when Isaac leaps to the defense of Islam, Amir analyzes with an edge in his voice just why he believes his former religion and the modern world are a bad combination. Theres a result to believing that a book written about life in a specific society 1,500 years ago is the word of God: You start wanting to recreate that society, he says. After all, its the only one in which the Koran makes any literal sense. Thats why you have people like the Taliban. Perhaps more startling is that despite his disdain, he still feels a tug of pride in the advances Islam has made in the contemporary world, even at the cost of great violence. Mr. Mandvis fervent performance

made me believe, at least in the moment, that Amirs seemingly contradictory impulses were coming from a conflict between his mind and his gut. Those who know this talented performer only from his perky mock-commentaries on The Daily Show may be surprised to discover what a skilled stage actor he is. (Mr. Mandvi first made a splash on the New York theater scene more than a decade ago in his solo show, Sakinas Restaurant.) His co-stars are no less accomplished at rendering the nuances of their characters lucidly. Ms. Armbruster (a dead ringer for Laura Linney) plays the ambitious Emily with a natural poise. Mr. Jensen handles the main combat chores with aplomb in the pivotal argument with Amir. And although her role is the least substantial of the four principals, Ms. Pittman makes Jorys cool, appraising looks speak volumes.

Theres more than a little contrivance in the interlocking relationships among the plays characters and in their schematically contrasted religious and cultural backgrounds. Admittedly, the workings of the plot in Disgraced are a little too preprogrammed to maximize conflict. When a late-coming revelation about a sexual secret is added to the mix, this pinball machine threatens to flop into tilt mode. And yet as the play rockets along its less than 90 minutes and one act youre not likely to note infelicities of design, because Mr. Akhtars cut-crystal dialogue is so stimulating. Everyone has been told that politics and religion are two subjects that should be off limits at social gatherings. But watching Mr. Akhtars characters rip into these forbidden topics, theres no arguing that they make for ear-tickling good theater.

Gifts of Voice That Just Keep On Giving

From First Arts Page will be 72 when he takes on the baritone role of Germont in Verdis Traviata at the Met this spring. The problem with his performances as a baritone, however, is that his voice still has a tenors colorings and character. His late success is the result of fierce determination and is no model for young singers. As it happens, a week before Ms. Cooks moving concert at Carnegie Hall, Barbra Streisand, now 70 (which in a singers life is nothing like being 85), returned to Brooklyn, her birthplace, to give two concerts at the new Barclays Center. Like Ms. Cook (whose birthday is on Thursday), Ms. Streisand has had to learn to adjust her vocal artistry as her voice has weathered. High notes do not come as easily, though even in her vocal prime, Ms. Streisands high range was not her comfort zone. In those days, whether she let a top note shimmer with penetrating power or coaxed her voice to reach the peak of a phrase with breathy expressivity, her singing was driven by the instincts of a born actress who was using her voice as a means to an end, as Ms. Streisand explained in a 2009 interview. She continues, to the delight of her countless admirers, including me. In song after song during the first Barclays program, Ms. Streisand found her way, even when it had to be a new, altered way, to enthrall and move her audience in songs she first claimed long ago, like My Funny Valentine, and an achingly wistful performance of The Way We Were, dedicated to its composer, her old friend Marvin Hamlisch, who died in August. The best pop singers seem never to age. Look at Frank Sinatra. You cannot say his singing declined as he matured; rather, it changed, mellowed and took on more vocal weight and emotional depth. He may have given some shaky performances toward the end, but no one said he was too old to sing. I could not help feeling a little bad for Ms. Graham and any opera singers who happened to be in the audience for Ms. Cooks concert. Singing is singing, and there are whole areas in which the artistry of pop singing and opera singing overlap: in phrasing, color, inflection, character and making words matter. Still, vocal technique in opera presents almost superhuman challenges and, in comparison with pop artists, opera singers can count on just two or, at best, three decades of top-notch singing. At 30, most opera singers are still developing, figuring out the dimensions of their voices. By their mid-50s they must listen to critics and demanding buffs telling them that their voices are losing luster, or technical agility, and that they should retire certain roles. The main difference between these vocal practices, of course, is obvious: amplification. It was amusing to see Ms. Graham, when she walked onstage to

address Ms. Cook, fumble as she tried to figure out how to snap a hand-held microphone on to its stand. But after speaking through the microphone, she pushed it aside to sing, and filled the hall with her creamy sound. You can sing with much more subtlety and nuanced attention to words when you have amplification to help you. So, at least in the realm of technique, there is not much that opera singers can learn from artists like Ms. Cook and Ms. Streisand. Still, both offer inspiring examples of how to adapt artistry to changes in vocal capacities. And this is something opera singers think about all the time. The hallmarks of Ms. Cooks artistry, as Ms. Graham said, have always been integrity and honesty. At this point, her voice may have lost some body. She may not have the uncannily fresh bloom in her sound that she had way back in her late 70s. And physical troubles that caused her to walk with a cane onto the Carnegie Hall stage, and to sing sitting down, may have affected her vocal stamina that night. Long ago Ms. Cook figured out what

really matters in singing: to put lyrics across as if she were confiding in you, to bend melodic phrases to expressive ends, to inflect her sound with heartache, happiness, sass, bitterness or whatever the moment calls for, as she did in her affecting rendition of The Nearness of You, the Hoagy Carmichael standard, sung with the subdued piano accompaniment of Ted Rosenthal. Ms. Cooks move in more recent years into swing songs is partly the reflection of an artist exploring new terrain, but also an acknowledgment that in songs like Makin Whoopee she can make magic happen, as she did in her sly, charming performance, by emphasizing, almost half-speaking the words. During Ms. Streisands concert at the Barclays Center it was hard to imagine that in 2000, when she gave two concerts at Madison Square Garden, she all but announced that concert tour as her last. Since then she has found new ways to adjust and continue. Will she be performing at 85? Its doubtful. But who would have thought that Ms. Cook would still be singing so beautifully at that age?

C6

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

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> NCIS Lost at Sea. Investigating NCIS: Los Angeles Dead Body

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3:45 P.M. (Showtime) THE OTHER F WORD (2011) Aging punk rockers like Jim Lindberg of Pennywise and Fat Mike of NOFX, above, with his daughter, leave the clubs and hang up their guitars to tackle fatherhood, which includes unanarchistic responsibilities like paying mortgages and securing health insurance. But what begins as an amusing fluff piece (Daddys messed up, mumbles one woozy subject after dropping his gurgling infant) slowly emerges as a compelling and often touching peek at punk paternity, Jeannette Catsoulis wrote in her review of this documentary by Andrea Blaugrund Nevins in The New York Times. Though wives and girlfriends are regrettably ignored, these dads have plenty to say about breadwinning in an age of free downloads and ever more youthful audiences. 2:05 P.M. (HBO2) BULL DURHAM (1988) Kevin Costner is Crash Davis, a veteran baseball catcher who is told to impart some of his wisdom to a young pitcher and head case named Nuke LaLoosh (Tim Robbins). Susan Sarandon plays Annie, the local teams biggest fan who also knows more about baseball than either of them. Writing in The Times, Janet Maslin said that this movie, written and directed by Ron Shelton, had the charming if belabored notion that baseball, love, poetry and religion do indeed share common ground. She added that Mr. Costner gives Crash a shrewd, knowing manner so effortless that its easily mistaken for nonchalance, and a flirty, confident style that Annie inevitably begins to appreciate. 6:45 P.M. (HBO) HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: PART 2 (2011) Childhood ends with tears, howls and smoke for Harry (Daniel Radcliffe, below), Ron (Rupert Grint) and Hermione (Emma Watson) in the seriess final installment, which follows the threesome, now adult wizards, in their final showdown with Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes). Writing in The Times, Manohla Dargis said that Mr. Fiennes and a certain albino dragon made the movie soar, as did Michael Gambons brief turn as Dumbledore and Maggie Smiths visibly delighted marshaling of an army of stone soldiers as McGonagall. Finally too, Ms. Dargis said, there is Alan Rickman, who as Snape, Harrys longtime nemesis, lifts the movie to its expressive high point. That Snape has become such a brilliant screen character is due to Mr. Rickman, who helped elevate a childs tale of good and evil into a story of human struggle, she added. 8 P.M. (CBS) NCIS The team searches for a missing helicopter pilot after the rest of the crew is discovered. Ziva (Cote de Pablo) challenges Tony (Michael Weatherly) and McGee (Sean Murray) to a dare. On NCIS: Los Angeles, at 9, the seemingly accidental death of a staff member of a United States Senate candidate becomes a matter of national security. 9 P.M. (ABC) HAPPY ENDINGS In the Season 3 premiere Penny (Casey Wilson) is in a full-body cast after an accident, and Max (Adam Pally) tries to nurse her back to health until things take a Misery-like turn. At 9:30, in the Season 2 premiere of Dont Trust the B in Apartment 23, James (James Van Der Beek) tries to get the Capeside gang back together for a Dawsons Creek reunion. 9 P.M. (Starz) JUMPING THE BROOM (2011) Paula Patton and Laz Alonso, below, play Sabrina Watson and Jason Taylor, lovebirds planning what should be the perfect wedding. That is, until Jasons mother (Loretta Devine), a postal employee, arrives with a chip on her shoulder at the estate of Sabrinas uptight parents. Our family were never slaves, says Mrs. Watson (Angela Bassett), who likes to converse in French. We owned slaves. Mayhem ensues as the movie examines, among other subjects, class conflict among black families. In The Times A. O. Scott wrote that the films director, Salim Akil, and its writers, Elizabeth Hunter and Arlene Gibbs, fall back on the tried-and-true staple of the busy nuptial weekend to stage a talk show seasons worth of conflicts and revelations, both serious and comical. The film, whose producers include T. D. Jakes, the Dallas minister and self-help author, is like one of Tyler Perrys movies, Mr. Scott added, but stripped of both the anarchic comedy and the over-the-top, operatic passions. 10 P.M. (NBC) PARENTHOOD Kristina (Monica Potter) goes into surgery, while Sarah (Lauren Graham) prepares to move in with Mark (Jason Ritter). But she may have some lingering feelings for Hank (Ray Romano).
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Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars Storage Wars (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (PG) (CC) (HD) (11:01) (CC) (HD) (11:31) ABCFAM Pretty Little Liars (CC) (HD) (14) Pretty Little Liars (N) (CC) (HD) Hocus Pocus (1993). Bette Midler, Sarah Jessica Parker. (PG) (HD) The 700 Club (N) (CC) (HD) (G) Halloween 4: The Return of Michael Halloween 5: The Revenge of Michael Myers (1989). Donald Pleasence. Halloween: Resurrection (2002). Jamie Lee Curtis, Brad Loree. (R) AMC Myers (1988). (R) (CC) (HD) (6) Dr. Loomis meets Mikes prescient 9-year-old niece. (R) (CC) (HD) (CC) (HD) (10:15) APL River Monsters: Unhooked (HD) River Monsters: Unhooked (HD) Life: Reborn Challenges. (N) (PG) Life: Reborn (N) (HD) (PG) River Monsters: Unhooked (HD)
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Chopped Pigging Out. (N) (HD) Chopped (HD) Chopped (HD) FXM Presents Save the Last Dance (2000). White teenage ballerina transfers to inner(CC) (MA) (10:14) city school. Guess whos coming to hip-hop class. (PG-13) (CC) On the Record With Greta Van The OReilly Factor (CC) (HD) Hannity (HD) Susteren (N) (CC) (HD) Concacaf Champions League Soccer Soccer News Top 20 Countdown (HD) Sons of Anarchy Toads Wild Ride. (N) (HD) (MA) Heroes .07 Percent. (CC) (HD) Chasing
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Top 100 Party Playlist (HD) Sexiest Club Tracks The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009). Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson. Bella meets the werewolves. Juiceless and nearly bloodless. (PG-13) (HD) Attack of the Show! (N) (HD) (14) Heroes Company Man. (HD) (14) Heroes Parasite. (CC) (HD) (14) Big Break Learning Center Big Break Greenbrier Minute to Win It (CC) (HD) (PG) Little House on the Prairie (CC) Big Break Greenbrier Minute to Win It (CC) (HD) (PG) Little House on the Prairie (CC) Minute to Win It (CC) (HD) (PG) Little House on the Prairie (CC)

Top 100 Party Sons of Anarchy Toads Wild Sons of Anarchy Ride. (HD) (MA) (11:03) (HD) (MA) (12:05) Heroes Five Years Gone. (HD) (14) Demolition Man Big Break Family Feud
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Hunters Intl House Hunters Love It or List It (CC) (HD) (G) Property Virgins Property Virgins House Hunters Hunters Intl Million Dollar Rooms (N) (HD) (G) Property Virgins The Men Who Built America A The Men Who Built America Oil The Men Who Built America Bloody Battles. Andrew Carnegie immi- Pawn Stars (CC) Pawn Stars (CC) The Men Who New War Begins. (CC) (HD) (PG) Strike. (CC) (HD) (PG) grates to the U.S. (N) (CC) (HD) (PG) (HD) (11:02) (HD) (11:32) Built America Jane Velez-Mitchell (N) Nancy Grace (N) Dr. Drew on Call (N) Nancy Grace Showbiz Tonight (HD) Dr. Drew on Call Nightmare Next Door Double Mur- Into the Abyss (2011). Werner Herzog explores a capital punishment case in Texas. Very Bad Men Into the Abyss (2011). Werner Herzog explores a der Inferno. (CC) (HD) (PG-13) (CC) (HD) (CC) (HD) (14) capital punishment case in Texas. (PG-13) (CC) (HD) > Malcolm in the > Malcolm in the . The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy (2005). Martin Freeman, Mos Repo! The Genetic Opera (2008). Anthony Stewart Head. Rock opera . Hitchhikers Middle (CC) Middle (CC) Def. (PG) (HD) about Orwellian biotech firm. Excruciating new torture. (R) (HD) (10:15) Guide-Galaxy Abbys Ultimate Dance Competi- Abbys Ultimate Dance Competi- Abbys Ultimate Dance Competi- Prank My Mom Prank My Mom My Life Is a Lifetime Movie Lovely Abbys Ultimate tion Let the Dancing Begin. (HD) tion Unleash the Monsters. (HD) tion Get Into Character. (N) (HD) (N) (CC) (HD) (CC) (HD) (14) Little Liars. (CC) (HD) (14) Dance A Woman Scorned: The Betty Brod- Her Final Fury: Betty Broderick, the Last Chapter (1992, TVF). Socialite Her Perfect Spouse (2004, TVF). Tracy Nelson, Michael Riley. Rich Her Final Fury: erick Story (1992, TVF). (HD) (6) on trial for killing ex-husband and his bride. Intense performances. (CC) (HD) writer becomes possessive, violent husband. (CC) (HD) Betty Broderick

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Doomsday Preppers Bugged Out Hard Time (N) (HD) (14) Taboo (N) (HD) (14) > The Nanny Full House (CC) Full House (CC) Full House (CC) Full House (CC) > The Nanny Dora Explorer Dora Explorer Team Umizoomi Team Umizoomi Mom Friends The Call Inside City Hall Parental Discr. New York Tonight

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College Football Rutgers vs. Temple. (CC) (HD) The Young and the Restless (HD) Days of Our Lives (CC) (HD) (14) General Hospital (CC) (HD) (PG) Pass Time (HD) Pass Time (HD) Dumbest Stuff Ink Master (CC) (HD) (14) Big Rich Texas (HD) (PG) > Freaks and Geeks The Diary. (CC) (PG) Face Off Whos the New Who? (HD) (14) > Seinfeld The > Seinfeld (HD) Cafe. (HD) (Part 2 of 2) (PG) . The Actress (1953). Spencer Tracy, Jean Simmons. (CC) (6) Extreme Chea. Extreme Chea. The Mentalist Red Hair and Silver Tape. (CC) (HD) (14) Man v. Food (G) Man v. Food (G) Worlds Dumbest. (14) Cosby Show > Law & Order: SVU Lowdown. A Bronx ADA lies strangled. (HD) (14) Chrissy & Jones T.I. and Tiny Charmed Spin City. The Spider Demon kidnaps Piper. (CC) (PG) Football SportsMoney Dumbest Stuff Hard Parts Hard Parts Ink Master Semi Nude 911. (HD) Ink Master (CC) (HD) (14)

Jets Extra Point SportsNite (HD) SportsNite (HD) SportsNite (HD) SportsNite (HD) The Young and the Restless (HD) Days of Our Lives (CC) (HD) (14) General Hospital My Ride Rules My Ride Rules Dumbest Stuff Tattoo Night. Dumbest Stuff Tattoo Night. Hard Parts Ink Master (HD) Ink Master (N) (CC) (HD) (14)

Giuliana & Bill (N) (HD) (PG) Tia & Tamera (N) (HD) (PG) Chicagolicious (N) (HD) (PG) Giuliana & Bill (HD) (PG) Tia & Tamera . The Manchurian Candidate (2004). Denzel Washington, Meryl Iconoclasts (N) The Mortified Public Sex (2009). Luke Treadaway, Kate Heppell. (CC) (HD) (14) Sessions (HD) Streep. (R) (CC) (HD) Journalist researches car-park sex. (CC) (HD) (11:15) Face Off Junkyard Cyborg. (HD) Face Off Scene of the Crime. (N) Hot Set Super Villains Lair. A su- Face Off Scene of the Crime. Hot Set A super (PG) (HD) (14) per villains lair. (N) (HD) (PG) (HD) (14) villains lair. (HD) > The Big Bang > The Big Bang > The Big Bang > The Big Bang > The Big Bang > The Big Bang Conan Will Arnett; Harry Shearer. > The Office Theory (14) Theory (14) Theory (14) Theory Theory (14) Theory (14) (N) (CC) (HD) (14) (CC) (HD) (14) . Of Mice and A Child Is Waiting (1963). Burt Lancaster, Judy Garland. Mentally retarded. . Mandy (1953). Phyllis Calvert, Mandy Miller. Strong, affecting British Strongest and best with children, especially the remarkable Bruce Ritchey. drama of deaf childs rehabilitation. Also called Crash of Silence. Men (1939). (CC) Breaking Amish Final Days. (HD) 19 Kids-Count 19 Kids-Count Extreme Chea. Extreme Chea. 19 Kids-Count 19 Kids-Count Extreme Chea. The Mentalist Bloodhounds. In- The Mentalist Red Alert. (CC) Rizzoli & Isles Crazy for You. Leverage The Real Fake Car Job. The Closer Last vestigating a double murder. (HD) (HD) (14) (CC) (HD) (14) (CC) (HD) (PG) Rites. (HD) (14) Bizarre Foods America (CC) (HD) Airport 24/7: Mi Airport 24/7: Mi Baggage Battles Baggage Battles Toy Hunter (HD) Toy Hunter (HD) Airport 24/7: Mi Hardcore Pawn Hardcore Pawn Hardcore Pawn Hardcore Pawn Bait Car (N)
> Raymond > Raymond Cosby Show Cosby Show > Law & Order: SVU Blood Broth- > Law & Order: SVU Double ers. (CC) (HD) (14) Strands. (CC) (HD) (14) Planet Rock: The Story of Hip Hop and the Crack Generation (HD) > CSI: Miami Target Specific. The > CSI: Miami Wolfe in Sheeps Russian mob targets the team. Clothing. (CC) (14) Yankees Classics Braves vs. Yankees, from Oct. 23, 1996. (CC) > Raymond

ONLINE: TELEVISION LISTINGS

Television highlights for a full week, recent reviews by The Timess critics and complete local television listings. nytimes.com/tv
Definitions of symbols used in the program listings:
Recommended film Recommended series New or noteworthy program
Ratings: (Y)All children (Y7) Directed to older children (G) General audience

Bait Car (N)

> Raymond

Bait Car (14)

Bait Car (14)

Hardcore Pawn King of Queens > Law & Order: SVU (HD) T.I. and Tiny > CSI: Miami (CC) (14) Yankeeography

(N) New show or episode (CC) Closed-captioned (HD) High definition (PG) Parental guidance suggested (14) Parents strongly cautioned (MA) Mature audience only

TVLAND M*A*S*H (CC)

King of Queens King of Queens > Law & Order: SVU Loophole. A Covert Affairs Wishful Beginnings. (N) (CC) (HD) (PG) child pornographer. (HD) (11:01) Rehab With Dr. Drew (14) Basketball Wives LA (HD) > CSI: Miami Chip/Tuck. Ron Sa- > CSI: Miami Dead on Arrival. Reris is seeking revenge on Julia. ality stars murder. (CC) (14) Best of Mike Francesa

The TV ratings are assigned by the producers or network. Ratings for theatrical films are provided by the Motion Picture Association of America.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

C7

Stars and Amateurs, Both Hamming It Up

Todays New York dance scene is often described as a diaspora: too economically fragile and geographically dispersed to offer any real sense of a cohesive society. This reality, so the story goes, is in sharp contrast to the intimacy revolving around the Judson DANCE REVIEW Dance Theater movement of the 1960s, when everyone was hanging out at the same parties and working in the same lofts. Its a compelling narrative (especially for nostalgia-prone New Yorkers). But one of the unexpected counternarratives exposed by the visual-art worlds insatiable appetite for performance is the intense current of community spirit within dance today. Communal support and excitement could be palpably felt Saturday afternoon at the Museum of Modern Art, when the French choreographer Jrme Bel staged a new version of The Show Must Go On (2001) as part of the museums Some sweet day series. This shortened edition fea-

CLAUDIA LA ROCCO

The Some sweet day series runs through Nov. 4 at the Museum of Modern Art; (212) 708-9400, moma.org.

tured a Whos Who of local performance luminaries, including the Trisha Brown Dance Company veteran Diane Madden, the revered ballet teacher Janet Panetta, the Wooster Groups Scott Shepherd and the potent choreographer Trajal Harrell. Not bad, and the cheering throngs who packed the atrium and spilled up into the surrounding balconies included enough performing arts notables to make up several more casts of the show. This Show was intended to be a crowd pleaser. Like the fulllength version, it is based on a collection of pop songs, including those with an overt connection to dance. The 20 performers first stood staring out at the audience, having entered the roped-off, improvisatory stage to the call of the Beatles Come Together (what fun to hear these songs blasting through the atrium). They didnt move, beyond small adjustments in stance, until David Bowie issued his command in Lets Dance. Then, well, they danced: social dancing, including idiosyncratic gestures, gorgeously supple movements and endearingly awkward ones. (The cast also included nonprofessional performers.) And here essentially was the structure: Tina Turners Pri-

PAULA LOBO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

The Show Must Go On A shortened version of this Jrme Bel work that was performed at MoMA was an exercise in community spirit.
vate Dancer provided the impetus for an inward-focused solo by a D.J., who briefly had the stage to himself. During Lionel Richies Ballerina Girl, all of the men left the stage save Mr. Harrell, in a nod to gender fluidity and the women executed basic ballet steps and positions. Here, artists like Ms. Panetta dazzled, while others struggled, beautifully, within this exacting form. (Jenny Schlenzka, an associate curator at MoMA PS1, was a surprising standout; who knew?) The Show Must Go On is in obvious (and very French) conversation with the issues of antivirtuosic movement and artifice taken up by the Judson artists. It was interesting to consider this 21st-century meditation in tandem with the 1960s experimentalist Steve Paxtons work that opened the series. After Mr. Paxtons quietly powerful investigations, Mr. Bels proposal felt rather impoverished. The safe, hamming-it-up theatricality in this condensed Show came rather too much to the fore. What a missed opportunity, considering all of the challenges and possibilities present in a difficult performance space like the atrium. The crowd certainly seemed pleased. But pushed or provoked? Not by this bonbon.

The Nine Justices Who Sit In Eye of Americas Storms

From First Arts Page he looks at how the current makeup of the court reflects changes in the Republican Party at large, underscoring in particular the fallout created by the departure of the moderate Republican Sandra Day OConnor. (What makes this harder, she reportedly told Justice David Souter as she was preparing to leave, is that its my party thats destroying the country.) Mr. Toobins analysis in these pages is helpful for readers looking for a one-stop overview of the court, but The Oath also relies, heavily at times, on the work of journalists from The New York Times, CBS, NPR, Politico and other news outlets, and many of Mr. Toobins observations will be familiar to those who regularly follow Supreme Court coverage. The freshest portions of The Oath tend to deal with interactions among the justices, and the ways temperament and past experiences inform their philosophies and decisions. In Mr. Toobins tart opinion, Justice Anthony Kennedy is given to a judgeAs for Chief Justice Roberts, Mr. Toobin describes him as towering above his colleagues, conservative and liberal alike, in savvy, intelligence and understanding of the place of the Supreme Court in American life. Explicating the similarities between Chief Justice Roberts and President Obama, he points out that both possess a powerful intellect and considerable charm; both are Harvard Law School graduates and products of Chicago and its environs; and both possess a certain literary flair. . He also argues, however, that when it comes to an understanding of the Constitution and existing law, it is the chief justice, not the president, who is the apostle of change. In fact, Mr. Toobin says that President Obama has made lower-court nominations less of a political priority than his predecessors, having failed, he adds (as of the summer of 2012), even to submit nominations for 43 federal judgeships. In Mr. Toobins view, Mr. Obama did not believe the courts were the principal vehicle for social and political change, regarding elections, rather than lawsuits, as his battlefield of choice, and this diffidence about the role of the courts would shape both his own career and his presidency. For that matter, Mr. Toobin argues, the president and Democrats in general have failed to engage on many legal issues: To the extent there is a contemporary liberal agenda, it consists roughly of a pallid embrace of the status quo: preserve Roe and affirmative action. (Support for the rights of gay people may turn out to be an exception to this pervasive timidity.) In contrast, this book contends, there is a clear Republican judicial agenda for change: expand executive power, end racial preferences intended to assist African-Americans, speed up executions, prohibit all forms of gun control, welcome religion into the public sphere, deregulate political campaigns and, above all, reverse Roe v. Wade and allow states to ban abortion. Mr. Toobin regards Justice Clarence Thomas as the courts conservative intellectual pathbreaker, arguing that his hostility to campaign finance regulation, and his First Amendment absolutism, anticipated Citizens United. In his opinion, Justice Thomas paid far less deference

PETE SOUZA/OBAMA TRANSITION TEAM, VIA REUTERS

President-Elect Barack Obama, far left, and Vice President-Elect Joseph R. Biden Jr., far right, make a visit to the Supreme Court in January 2009. From left, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices John Paul Stevens, Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and David Souter.
to prior rulings that is, to precedent than anyone else on the court. Mr. Toobin also declares that more than any other justice, perhaps more than any other public figure, Clarence Thomas helped inspire the Tea Party movement, observing that the justices wife, Virginia, had done consulting work with Tea Party groups opposing the presidents health care law. In the case of Mr. Roberts, Mr. Toobin echoes what some other court observers have argued: that in joining with the courts four more liberal members and finding a way to uphold President Obamas heath care overhaul law, the chief justice was actually playing the long game on behalf of conservatives. It was, Mr. Toobin suggests, an act of strategic genius: it took the Supreme Court off the Democratic agenda for at least the foreseeable future and bought enormous political space for himself for future rulings, refuting accusations (increasingly common in the wake of Bush v. Gore, and Citizens United) that the court had become a partisan body strictly split along ideological and Republican-Democrat lines. Back in March when Solicitor General Donald Verrilli delivered oral arguments for upholding the Affordable Care Act, Mr. Toobin had gone on CNN and characterized his performance as a train wreck for the Obama administration. A Reuters news report said his assessment shaped early odds making of how the court would rule in a few months, and on the day the decision was handed down, it momentarily sounded as if Mr. Toobins prediction had come to pass. Racing to break the news first, CNN and Fox initially made the incorrect call that the individual mandate (the requirement that most Americans obtain insurance

or pay a penalty) had been struck down by the court; minutes later, however, it became clear that while the court had rejected an expansive view of the Constitutions commerce clause (which the administration had argued gave Congress the power to make people buy health insurance), it had in fact upheld the health care law on grounds that the individual mandate fell under Congresss broad power to levy taxes. Mr. Toobins narrative in this volume concerning the courts deliberations on the Affordable Care Act and how Mr. Roberts apparently moved from an alliance with the conservatives to strike down the heart of the law, to his decision to uphold most of it is dramatic and absorbing. But it is also highly indebted to the work of other reporters like Jan Crawford of CBS News and Paul Campos of Salon. It is Mr. Toobins opinion that even in voting with the majority on the Affordable Care Act, Chief Justice Roberts laid down a marker on the scope of the commerce clause that may augur a return to the pre-1937 days when the Court invalidated economic regulations with regularity. And so what might have initially seemed like a loss for the conservative movement may well turn out to be a significant long-term gain.

TURNER BROADCASTING SYSTEM

Jeffrey Toobin
centered, almost messianic, approach to the law; Justice Scalia has become increasingly belligerent and contemptuous of Congress; and Justice Stephen Breyer has become increasingly upset at writing dissent after dissent. Mr. Toobin also notes that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Scalia are good friends, despite their very divergent politics, and that this odd couple often spend New Years Eve together.

C8

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

D1

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

BUCK BUTLER

Finding Zen in a Patch of Nature

David Haskell did no experiments for his latest book; he sat, watched and listened to the forest.
By JAMES GORMAN

SEWANEE, Tenn. It is afternoon in a hardwood forest on the edge of the Cumberland Plateau, and the cicadas are singing. David Haskell, an ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of the South, is taking me through part of the 13,000 acres owned by the university, to a small circle of forest floor a bit over a yard in diameter. He visited this randomly chosen forest mandala, as he calls it, many times over the course of a year and recorded his observations in The Forest Unseen: A Years Watch in Nature. He is pointing out flowers, salamanders, insects, trees, as we follow a well-worn hiking

path, and stops for a moment to listen. These are swamp cicadas, he says, not the kind that hatch all at once after years underground and hammer the ear mercilessly. Was it last year or the year before we had the 13-year cicadas? he says. I took my sound pressure meter down to a place where they were really loud, and it came to over 90 decibels. At 85 OSHA says you need hearing protection in your workplace. Everybody else hates them. But to him, the noise is biological alchemy, sunlight into sound. These guys have been feeding on roots for 13 years. And so its 13 years of combined Tennessee forest productivity being blasted out. It is this kind of perception, halfway be-

DAVID HASKELL

MANDALA

A Mesomphix snail glided across a fallen magnolia leaf in Shakerag Hollow in Sewanee, Tenn., where David Haskell, top, made a yearlong meditative study.

tween metaphor and field note, that makes his voice a welcome entry in the world of nature writers. He thinks like a biologist, writes like a poet, and gives the natural world the kind of open-minded attention one expects from a Zen monk rather than a hypothesis-driven scientist. He avoids terms like nature deficit disorder and refuses to scold the bug-fearing masses. His pitch is more old-fashioned, grounded in aesthetics as much as science. You can live a perfectly happy life never having heard of Shakespeare, he says, but your life is in some ways a little diminished, because theres such beauty there. And I think the same is true of nature. Much of it is useless to us, and thats O.K. Its not true that every species that goes extinct is like another rivet off the plane and the planes going to crash. We lost the passenger pigeon and the U.S. economy did not tank. But we lost the passenger pigeon and we lost some of this Continued on Page 4

BASICS

Natalie Angier

NEWS ANALYSIS

True Blue Stands Out in an Earthy Crowd

For the French Fauvist painter and color gourmand Raoul Dufy, blue was the only color with enough strength of character to remain blue in all its tones. Darkened red looks brown and whitened red turns pink, Dufy said, while yellow blackens with shading and fades away in the light. But blue can be brightened or dimmed, the artist said, and it will always stay blue. Scientists, too, have lately been bullish on blue, captivated by its optical purity, complexity and metaphorical fluency. Theyre exploring the physics and chemistry of blueness in nature, the evolution of blue ornaments and blue come-ons, and the sheer brazenness of being blue when most earthly life forms opt for earthy raiments of beige, ruddy or taupe. One research team recently reported the structural analysis of a small, dazzlingly blue fruit from the African Pollia condensata plant that may well be the brightest terrestrial object in nature world. Another group working in the central Congo basin announced the discovery of a new species of monkey, a rare event in mammalogy. Rarer still is the noteworthiest trait of the monkey, called the lesula: a patch of brilliant blue skin on the males buttocks and scrotal area that stands out from the

Curbing the Enthusiasm On Daily Multivitamins

By RONI CARYN RABIN

ROBERT F. BUKATY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

NATURAL COLOR Wild blueberries ready for harvesting in Maine.

surrounding fur like neon underpants. Still other researchers are tracing the history of blue pigments in human culture, and the role those pigments have played in shaping our notions of virtue, authority, divinity and social class. Blue pigments played an outstanding role in human development, said Heinz Berke, an emeritus professor of chemistry at the University of Zurich. For

some cultures, he said, they were as valuable as gold. As a raft of surveys has shown, blue love is a global affair. Ask people their favorite color, and in most parts of the world roughly half will say blue, a figure three to four times the support accorded common second-place finishers like purple or green. Just one in six AmeriContinued on Page 3

Can you reduce your risk of cancer by taking a multivitamin every day? Last week, Boston researchers announced that one of the largest longterm clinical trials of multivitamins in the United States encompassing 14,000 male physicians 50 and older, and lasting over a decade found that taking a common combination of essential vitamins and minerals every day decreased the incidence of cancer by 8 percent, compared with a placebo pill. Men who had already had cancer earlier in life were most likely to benefit, the study found. Cancer deaths also were lower among those who took vitamins, though that may have been a chance finding. Curiously, the vitamin regimen did not reduce the rate of prostate cancer, the most common cancer affecting men. The researchers also looked for side effects and found that daily vitamins caused only minor problems, like occasional skin rashes. Even though an 8 percent reduction in the overall cancer rate is fairly modest, Dr. Demetrius Albanes, sen-

ior investigator at the National Cancer Institute, said the potential public health implications were vast. If you think of the hundreds of thousands of new cases of cancer every year, 8 percent can add up quite a bit, he said. Yet no one is rushing out to urge more Americans to take multivitamins. Although half the population already takes some kind of supplement,

Insufficient evidence that supplements cut the risk of disease.

previous studies have yielded decidedly mixed results. Some trials of high doses of nutrients believed to be cancer-fighters were shut down prematurely when they backfired, driving up cancer rates instead of reducing them. Current federal dietary guidelines and American Cancer Society recommendations encourage people to eat a Continued on Page 6

Science
INTERSTELLAR DREAMS

Health
THE WRONG STUFF

Online Tracking climate change in the Himalayas. Also, an audio interview with David Haskell.
nytimes.com/science

Out There: A planet orbiting Alpha Centauri? Lets go!

DENNIS OVERBYE PAGE 2

Mind: Are we more likely to inherit stupidity than intelligence?

DAVID DOBBS PAGE 5

A TRICK OF MEMORY

LISTENING TO COSTCO

Observatory: What the brain does when it wants to forget.

SINDYA N. BHANOO PAGE 3
ELWOOD H. SMITH

Why hearing aids cost so much, and how to shop for them.
TRICIA ROMANO PAGE 5
LARS LEETARU

Updates on the meningitis outbreak, and Susan Gubar on drinking and chemotherapy.
nytimes.com/health

D2

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

OUT THERE

Dennis Overbye

Discovery Rekindles Wish for a Journey to the Stars

What will you wear to Alpha Centauri? The news last week that there is a planet circling Alpha Centauri B, only a little more than four lightyears away, set off an epidemic of daydreaming among the astronomical and sci-fi set, me among them. For people who believe that interstellar voyages, either for people or for robots, are in the future, Alpha Centauri, a triple-star system that is the Suns nearest known neighbor, has always loomed large and close as a destination. It was the home of the mythical jungle world Pandora in James Camerons epic Avatar, for example. The new planet doesnt have jungles, giant blueskinned cats or, as far as we know, the magical mineral unobtainium. It is, rather, a hellish unlivable blob of lava probably about the size of Earth, only four million short miles from the fires of Alpha Centauri B, the second brightest star in the system. But if astronomers have learned anything over the last few years from devices like the Kepler satellite, it is that small planets come in packs. There is plenty of room in the system for more planets, habitable ones. I think we should drop everything and send a probe there, said Sara Seager, an astronomer at M.I.T., echoing a call made last year by the exoplanet pioneer Geoff Marcy of the University of California, Berkeley. There is in fact somebody in charge of doing something just like that. Her name is Mae Jemison, a former astronaut, engineer, dancer, actor and entrepreneur. This year she, in conjunction with the nonprofit foundation Icarus Interstellar, won a $500,000 government grant to set up 100 Year Starship, an organization that is to come up with a business plan for interstellar travel. Darpa, the government agency that helped invent the Internet and now wants to help invent interstellar travel, estimated that just planning for such a trip could take 100 years. Dr. Jemison, 56, hopes it can happen sooner. The Centauri planet was officially announced on her birthday, and over the phone from her new headquarters in Houston she sounded practically bubbly. I cant imagine a cooler birthday, she said. Dr. Jemisons main work these days is spreading the word and raising money. The prospect of habitable real estate makes the idea of journeying to other stars that much more real, she

Q+a
LONG-DISTANCE LOBSTERS

VICTORIA ROBERTS

Q. Do lobsters have lungs? If not, how do they survive the long drive from Maine perched on a pile of seaweed in the cooler? A. Lobsters have gills, not lungs, said
Diane Cowan, senior scientist at the Lobster Conservancy in Friendship, Me. The gills remove oxygen from seawater and from the air, too, as long as the gills remain cool and moist, she said. Lobsters have five pairs of gills, each attached to one of their 10 legs, including the claws, the big front pair. When you pull off a lobster leg to eat it, the gill is the fuzzy gray part that comes along with it, Dr. Cowan said. Gills work best in seawater, but if lobsters are kept in containers of seawater with no aeration, they quickly use up the oxygen and suffocate, she said. That it why it is imperative to transport lobsters in containers with no standing water. Dr. Cowan suggested packaging lobsters for travel in bath towels soaked in seawater. To keep them cool and slow their metabolism so they require less oxygen, she puts them next to a whole frozen chicken or turkey. She also packs them so that they do not bounce around in the container. Chilled and moistened lobsters can be kept alive for weeks, Dr. Cowan said, and lobstermen tell tall tales of longer survival, even of overwintering in sheds. C. CLAIBORNE RAY

ELWOOD H. SMITH

said, adding: This is a boon, because most people have heard of Alpha Centauri. Its close. Well, sort of close. Space is deeper and older than most humans can comprehend. You cant measure a light-year by your stride. There are 4.4 of them 27 trillion miles from here to Alpha Centauri B.

Its not quite Pandora, but news of a planet sets off a wave of fantasies.
We wont get there by doing business as usual. Voyager 1, the fastest and most distant human artifact, is more than 11 billion miles from the Sun and is speeding away at 11 miles per second; it would take 78,000 years to get to Alpha Centauri if it were going that way, which it is not. Other schemes, based on existing or about-to-be-existing technology like solar sails and thermonuclear rockets, have been proposed that could reach a tenth the speed of light and make the crossing in less than a human lifetime.

(If you have a design for a faster-thanlight warp drive, send it directly to Dr. Jemison, not me.) Of course the cost would be staggering, even for the robots (perhaps genetically engineered nanoprobes) that would precede humans. And whoever eventually goes wont ever come back. It wont be me, despite what I once wrote in my high school yearbook: Ambition: To go to the stars. Perhaps it is a sign of my age that I think more these days about what I would be leaving behind than what I would be gaining: my family and other loved ones, autumn in the Catskills, one more cowboy trout stream or New Years Eve with old friends. I asked Dr. Jemison if she would go, knowing it was forever. Yeah, she answered. I would go. Perhaps hearing the catch of loneliness in my voice, she added, It makes a difference who goes with you. In science fiction, she said, space travel is sterile. I think it wont be like that, she said. It has to be reimagined. We will bring our culture along with us. All that is part of the Starship studys mandate, she said. At a recent symposium that was a sort of housewarming for the new insti-

tute, Dr. Jemison said, there was a lot of talk about what it means to be an interstellar civilization. Do we start calling ourselves Earthlings instead of Americans? Another big topic of conversation, surprisingly or not so surprisingly, was how to dress on a star cruise. As Dr. Jemison pointed out, not all of us are going to look good in those little spandex Star Trek uniforms. And even for those who do, the look will get old after 40 years. Perhaps, some people suggested, we wont need clothes at all on the starship. Everyone would go around in the BandAids that passed for underwear in this summers Prometheus, Ridley Scotts not-quite prequel to Alien. But the urge to decorate oneself seems built into human nature. And anyway, the urge to see what concoctions can be worn successfully in zero gravity is likely to be overwhelming. The Japanese fashion designer Eri Matsui has already designed a wedding dress actually a clever pantsuit that was worn for a wedding aboard a vomit comet flight in 2009. So start shopping and packing if you dare. Presumably you wont be limited to one carry-on.

Readers may submit questions by mail to Question, Science Times, The New York Times, 620 Eighth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10018, or by e-mail to question@nytimes.com. Questions of general interest will be answered in this column, but requests for medical advice cannot be honored, and unpublished letters cannot be answered individually.

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

D3
ITS A BIRD, ITS A CHEESE...

True Blue, Standing Out In an Earth-Tone Crowd

From First Science Page cans is blue-eyed, but nearly one in two consider blue the prettiest eye color, which could be why some 50 percent of tinted contact lenses sold are the kind that make your brown eyes blue. Sick children like their caretakers in blue: A recent study at the Cleveland Clinic found that young patients preferred nurses wearing blue uniforms to those in white or yellow. And am I the only person in the United States who doesnt own a single pair of those permanently popular pants formerly known as dungarees? For Americans, bluejeans have a special connotation because of their association with the Old West and rugged individualism, said Steven Bleicher, author of Contemporary Color: Theory and Use. The jeans take their John Wayne reputation seriously. Because the indigo dye fades during washing, everyones blue becomes uniquely different, said Dr. Bleicher, a professor of visual arts at Coastal Carolina University. Theyre your bluejeans. According to psychologists who explore the complex interplay of color, mood and behavior, blues basic emotional valence is calmness and openendedness, in contrast to the aggressive specificity associated with red. Blue is sea and sky, a pocket-size vacation. In a study that appeared in the journal Perceptual & Motor Skills, researchers at Aichi University in Japan found that subjects who performed a lengthy video game exercise while sitting next to a blue partition reported feeling less fatigued and claustrophobic, and displayed a more regular heart beat pattern, than did people who sat by red or yellow partitions. In the journal Science, researchers at the University of British Columbia described their study of how computer screen color affected participants ability to solve either creative problems for example, determining the word that best unifies the terms shelf, read and end (answer: book) or detailoriented tasks like copy editing. The researchers found that blue screens were superior to red or white backgrounds at enhancing creativity, while red screens worked best for accuracy tasks. Interestingly, when participants were asked to predict which screen color would improve performance on the two categories of problems, big majorities deemed blue the ideal desktop setting for both. But skies have their limits, and blue can also imply coldness, sorrow and death. On learning of a good friends suicide in 1901, Pablo Picasso fell into a severe depression, and he began painting images of beggars, drunks, the poor and the halt, all famously rendered in a palette of blue. The provenance of using the blues to mean sadness isnt clear, but L. Elizabeth Crawford, a professor of psychology at the University of Richmond in Virginia, suggested that the association arose from the look of the body when its in a low energy, low oxygen state. The lips turn blue, theres a blue pallor to the complexion, she said. Its the opposite of the warm flushing of the skin that we associate with love, kindness and affection. Blue is also known to suppress the appetite, possibly as an adaptation against eating rotten meat, which can have a bluish tinge. If youre on a diet, my advice is, take the white bulb out of the refrigerator and put in a blue one instead, Dr. Bleicher said. A blue glow makes food look very unappetizing. Not so to those that would dine upon us. Field studies of color-coded insect

The many faces of blue, clockwise from far left: Denims dye, the peacocks iridescent flash, the mold that gives Roquefort its funk, the hues of sea and sky. More things blue, in an interactive gallery:
nytimes.com/science

traps have shown that mosquitoes are particularly attracted to blue. That blue can connote coolness and tranquillity is one of natures little inside jokes. Blue light is on the high-energy end of the visible spectrum, and the comparative shortness of its wavelengths explains why the blue portion of the white light from the sun is easily scattered by the nitrogen and oxygen molecules in our atmosphere, and thus why the sky looks blue. Down on earth, organisms assume many of their colors with pigments, chemical substances that selectively absorb some wavelengths of light and reflect others the ones we then see as the objects color. Plants look green because the chlorophyll pigment in their leaves absorbs pretty much all sunlight except green. Cardinals owe their flaming feathers to carotenoids, orange-reflecting pigments the birds extract from ingested berries and insects. When it comes to blueness, though, the chemical approach is not always an

CLOCKWISE FROM LEFT: ISTOCK; ANNE RIPPY/GETTY IMAGES; ISTOCK; MICHAEL BENSON

option. Fungi, crabs and beetles may do cerulean, said the Yale ornithologist Richard O. Prum, but for some reason, vertebrate physiology never evolved the ability to make or use blue pigments. In place of blue pigment, vertebrates and others turn to figment. As Dr. Prum and others have determined lately, many of natures most spectacular blues the plumage of a blue jay or indigo bunting, the teal of a skink lizards tail, and now the lesula monkeys blue scrotum and Pollias shimmering blue fruit are structural in nature. They arise from the specific shape and arrangement of their underlying components. When you have a color obtained with pigment, its a characteristic of the material itself, said Silvia Vignolini, a physicist at the University of Cambridge and the lead author of the new

report about the Pollia condensata. When you make color with structure, you start with a material that is transparent, but by changing the structure by just a few hundred nanometers billionths of a meter you can change the color. Dr. Vignolini cited the analogy of soap bubbles, which begin as clear liquid and then assume different hues depending on their size, the thickness of their membranes and the angle at which theyre viewed. Structural blues are essentially built of soap membranes trapped at just the right orientation and thickness to forever glint blue. Stacking style counts, too. Sometimes the color-forming components are arrayed in a so-called quasi-ordered formation, a mix of regularity and randomness, like spaghetti packed in a box. That pattern yields the steady matte blues of the jays feathers and the mon-

keys pelvis. In other cases, the constituent bubbles are more strongly periodic in their arrangement, like atoms in a crystal, and the resulting blues possess the glittering, iridescent sheen seen in the wings of a blue morpho butterfly or, brighter still, the Pollia fruit. Dr. Vignolini and her colleagues determined that the lentil-size fruit reflected back 30 percent of the light cast upon it, the highest reflectivity for any land-based biological product known. The bold blue covering turns out to be a bit of a cheap trick, designed to attract birds and other potential seed dispersers without bothering to invest in the expensive quid pro quo of a pulp. The fruit has no nutritional value, Dr. Vignolini said. It doesnt harm birds, but it doesnt benefit them, either. The ruse doesnt fade with time. We have some samples in our collection that are almost 100 years old, Dr. Vignolini said, and they look the same as the fruit growing today, In life as in art, blue will always stay blue.

Blue Through the Centuries: Sacred and Sought After

By NATALIE ANGIER

However inspired they may have been by the immaculate beauty of the sky and water they saw every day, prehistoric artists had no way to render the color blue with paint. As Heinz Berke of the University of Zurich has pointed out, the famous cave paintings at Lascaux and surrounding sites, which date back some 20,000 years, are notably lacking in blue. Early mankind had no access to blue, because blue is not what you call an earth color, said Dr. Berke, a chemist who has studied the history of blue pigment. You dont find it in the soil. Only with the advent of mining, he said, could sources of blue pigment be extracted. The first stable blue colorant used in the ancient world came from lapis lazuli, a semiprecious stone mined in Afghanistan beginning about 6,000 years ago. The Egyptians prized all things la-

pis, combining it with gold to adorn the tombs of the pharaohs, or powdering it into eye shadow for Cleopatra. But the scarcity of the mineral drove the Egyptians to seek new blues through chemistry. By heating together limestone, sand and copper into the chemical compound calcium copper silicate, they invented the richly saturated royal-turquoise pigment called Egyptian blue. Variants of the recipe were taken up by the Mesopotamians, the Persians, the Greeks and the Romans, who built factories devoted to blues production. In ancient China, chemists created blue pigments by blending copper with heavy elements like barium, lead and mercury. Unfortunately, those same heavy elements were often brewed into popular and ultimately toxic elixirs. Its said that 40 percent of the Chinese emperors suffered from heavy-element poisoning, Dr. Berke said. The Mesoamericans invented the

third of the three great blues of ancient civilization, a vivid and durable pigment called Mayan blue that scientists recently suggested could be a mix of indigo plant extract, a clay mineral called palygorskite, and resin from the Mayas sacred incense, copal. Whatever its origin, the blue pigment remained rare and expensive until the dawn of the industrial age, which probably explains blues longstanding association with royalty and divinity, and possibly why it is a widely favored color today. According to Steven Bleicher, a professor of visual arts at Coastal Carolina University, blue got a big endorsement in the year 431, when the Catholic church decided to color code the saints. Mary was given a blue robe, he said, a dark, wonderful and expensive blue befitting the queen of heaven. Over time, Mary blue became navy blue, the color of trustworthiness and authority, of bankers and the police. At

this point, navy blue is so tightly linked to the notions of authority, Dr. Bleicher said, that the United Nations specifically avoided the color in designing the uniform of its peacekeeping troops and instead opted for a softer robins-egg blue. As for the color-coding of the sexes, the idea that blue is for boys and pink means girls didnt really gain traction in this country until the postwar baby boom, according to Jo B. Paoletti, a historian of dress at of the University of Maryland and the author of the new book Pink and Blue: Telling the Boys From the Girls in America. Even then, some parts of the South lagged in adopting the strict rules of childhood attire. I found examples of pink clothing for boys way up through the 1970s, Dr. Paoletti said. So, too, should we recall in todays bitter blue-red, donkey-pachyderm dialectic that just a few years ago, red stood for Marx.

Observatory Sindya N. Bhanoo

Silvery Fish Elude Predators With Light-Bending
Silvery fish like sardines and Atlantic herring are masters of camouflage. A new study explains how the fish use their silvery skin to stay invisible to predators from nearly every angle. What these fish do is get around a fundamental law of reflection, said Nicholas Roberts, a biologist at the University of Bristol and one of the studys authors. Typically, when light is reflectcrystals (which refract light). The two types of crystals have different refractive indexes that create a unique reflective property. The polarization happens over a range of angles instead of one, and the end product of having all the layers together is that it creates a polarization-neutral reflector, Dr. Roberts said. Over time, the fish have evolved to have the perfect ratio

In With Good and Out With Bad Memories

Most people have a moment or two they would rather not remember. The brain has two opposite ways of dealing with those memories, researchers report in a new study. The first is to simply block out the memory. The second is to recall a substitute memory. Take the case of a fight with a loved one, said Roland Benoit, a cognitive neuroscientist at the Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit in Cambridge, England.
CHRIS GASH

You dont want to think about it because you want to just go on with life, Dr. Benoit said. You can somehow push it out, or you could try to think of something else, like maybe that nice vacation to France you had together. Dr. Benoit and his colleagues asked study participants to associate the words beach and Africa. Then one group was told to avoid thinking about the associated words altogether. Another group was told to start thinking about the word snorkel in association with beach, rather than Africa. The participants were put under

a functional M.R.I. scanner, and the researchers found that in the case of memory substitution, the left prefrontal cortex works in conjunction with the hippocampus, an area of the brain connecting to conscious remembering. But when an unwanted memory is simply suppressed or blocked out, the prefrontal cortex actually inhibits the functioning of the hippocampus. Healthy individuals probably use both strategies interchangeably, Dr. Benoit said, and both techniques appear to be equally effective. Dr. Benoit and his colleagues report their findings in the current issue of the journal Neuron.

Lonely Male Orangutans Travel Far Afield to Mate

There are only about 6,600 orangutans left in Sumatra. Once found throughout the Indonesian island, the orangutans now live in just a few forest patches on the northern tip of the island. Now a genetics study reveals that the population patches are not as isolated as they seem, and that interbreeding occurs across rivers and mountainous areas. Protecting the existing corridors among these small populations is important to ensure that the species survives, said Alexander Nater, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Zurich and the studys lead author. It is important that all Sumatran

orangutans act like a large population for future survival, he said. The research, reported in The Journal of Heredity, was part of Dr. Naters doctoral work at the University of Zurich Anthropological Institute and Museum.

Sumatran orangutans build new nests each night to sleep in, and the researchers climbed trees to get hair samples from abandoned nests. They used the hair, along with blood and fecal samples, to look at the apes genealogy.

JEFFREY L. ROTMAN/GETTY IMAGES

Silver fishes skin reflects light at multiple layers without polarization.

ed from different surfaces, any light that comes off the path of that reflection becomes polarized. Thats why fishermen wear polarized vests. Silver fish avoid this problem because of the unique makeup of their skin, which has alternating layers of cytoplasm, as well as two types of guanine

of the two types of guanine, and as a result have a near-constant reflectivity, providing them an invisibility cloak from all angles, Dr. Roberts said. The mechanism is common to all silvery fish, he said. He and his colleagues report their findings in the current issue of the journal Nature Photonics.

ELLEN MEULMAN

Groups of Sumatran orangutans live on shrinking patches of rain forest.

By looking at mitochondrial DNA, they were able to study the orangutans maternal lineage and found that females always settle close to their mothers. Autosomal microsatellites (highly repetitive stretches of DNA inherited from both parents) revealed more about the paternal lineage. It is the males who navigate rivers and mountains and mate with females outside their local populations, the researchers found. While it is a healthy sign that males cross boundaries and improve genetic diversity, deforestation is still a threat to the species. The region is well suited for palm oil plantations, and companies are eager to make use of the fertile, forested land the orangutans rely on, Dr. Nater said.

D4

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Letters
Push for Breast-Feeding
To the Editor: Re Tossing the Formula (Oct. 16): Hospitals ending their partnerships with formula companies should be only the beginning of formalizing our nations support for breast-feeding. There needs to be some infrastructure in place to support new mothers, especially those in low-income households. While nursing is free, both a high-quality breast pump and a visit from a lactation consultant cost several hundred dollars. Other than the La Leche League, what are the free or low-cost options available to mothers? AMY HOROWITZ Montclair, N.J.

Finding Biology Zen in a Small Patch of Nature

From First Science Page remarkable music made out of atoms and DNA. Dr. Haskell wanted to tell the story of forest ecology and also to refresh himself with a kind of natural history meditation, as opposed to goal-directed scientific research. He has a daily practice of sitting and concentrating on his breathing (he doesnt use the word meditation) of no specific religious bent. He does, however, set himself apart from crusading atheists, like Richard Dawkins, saying he harbors a deep suspicion that the world is more than atoms rearranging themselves. He did no experiments and no research at his forest circle. He sat, and watched, and listened. I had my hand lens and binoculars and a notebook, he said. And that was it. And of course my senses. He is not, however, averse to technology when it comes to reaching an audience. He blogs (davidhaskell.wordpress.com) and tweets (@dghaskell). As we walk in the forest, he points out shagbark hickory, baneberry (very poisonous) and blue cohosh (you wouldnt want to eat it). The forest is rich in animal and plant diversity partly because it never suffered the onslaught of glaciers that scoured more northern forests in the last ice age. His small circle lies in an area that has been untouched for hundreds of years. But this forest is no pristine wilder-

To the Editor: In Oregon, we asked 3,895 women about free formula and breast-feeding. Women who did not receive free formula breast-fed their infants significantly longer than those who received free formula. Hospitals should not be subverting breast-feeding by implying that infant formula is endorsed by doctors, nurses and hospitals. KENNETH D. ROSENBERG Portland, Ore. The writer is an epidemiologist with the Oregon Public Health Division.

BUCK BUTLER

CONTEMPLATION David Haskell, an ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of the South, on the job.

To the Editor: That even women who are probably considerably more informed than the average new mother feel the pull of these marketing materials points to the true power of this industry tactic. The formula industry is well aware of the effectiveness of sample giveaways in hospitals, which is why it fights against efforts to stop the practice. In April, Public Citizen sent letters to 2,600 hospitals calling on them to stop allowing formula marketing in their facilities. More than 15,000 people have signed an online petition calling on formula companies to stop this damaging marketing practice. ELIZABETH BEN-ISHAI Washington The writer is a campaign coordinator for Public Citizen.

From a hillside forest in Tennessee, field notes with a poetic bent.

ness, as is obvious from the occasional golf ball resting under the ground cover. The path we are on is well down the side of a rough hill, beyond the crest of which lies the golf course. They remind me of eggs, Dr. Haskell says. You hatch one of these things and you get a golfer. Dr. Haskell was born in England, raised in Paris and educated at Oxford and Cornell before he came to Tennessee, 16 years ago, with his wife, Sarah Vance. One result of his background is that his accent is so hard to pin down, he says, that wherever he goes, people say, Youre not from around here. At Oxford he met two people who had great influence on his approach: the evolutionary biologist William Hamilton, with whom he studied, and Ms. Vance, a biologist, artist, goat keeper and soap maker. They live on less than an acre in Sewanee with a garden and dairy goats for Ms. Vances Cudzoo Farm, along with ducks, rabbits, bees, a dog and several cats. His wife, Dr. Haskell says, really taught me what it would be like to look at nature with a more empathetic eye. And a careful eye. Dr. Hamilton, whose work on the genetic basis for altruism inspired both Dr. Dawkinss book The Selfish Gene and E. O. Wilsons Sociobiology, taught him that the big ideas were not in conflict with the particularities of natural history. In the field, he said, Dr. Hamilton would be noticing little tiny wildflowers and telling me not to put my bike on them. We reach the circle where Dr. Haskell made his observations, a spot he picked, he writes, by walking haphazardly through the forest and stopping when I found a suitable rock on which to sit. The name mandala was inspired by the sand paintings made by Buddhist monks. In describing their making, he

YVETTA FEDOROVA

Defending Carotid Stenting

To the Editor: Can You Do Too Much to Prevent a Stroke? (Personal Health, Oct. 16) quotes doctors who attack, without redress, the motives and expertise of interventional cardiologists who invented and championed carotid stenting techniques. Carotid artery stenting is recognized by Medicare as a safe and effective treatment for some patients with symptomatic carotid blockages. Randomized clinical trials in patients without symptoms must be completed before conclusions are made. Until then, doctors who perform carotid stenting should not be criticized for working to expand stroke treatments to patients who might otherwise have limited options. J. JEFFREY MARSHALL, M.D. Washington The writer is president, Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions.

PHOTOGRAPHS BY DAVID HASKELL

DENIZENS An inky cap mushroom, top, and the shell of a Cumberland tiger

snail. Collected in the 1800s, the shell is held at the Smithsonian Institution.
writes, The whole universe is seen through this small circle of sand. In the book, he asks, Can the whole forest be seen through a small contemplative window of leaves, rocks and water? But unlike a mandala, which calls the eye to it with its intricacy, this bit of nature has nothing that would catch the eye of a passer-by. He looks it over and says, The first thing I see is this big old stick thats fallen across here and that has fallen since I wrote the book. And theres a downy woodpecker thats been at it since it fell and has taken out one of the wood-boring beetles. Usually, if you stay here for a while, something is going to happen, he says. As if on cue, a birds cry pierces the cicadas hum. Theres a blue jay. There are the cicadas. There are the harvestmen crawling around. He spent as much time doing research for the book as he did at the

mandala, and some of the beauty he captures is intellectual, not sensual, found in the balance of conflict and cooperation in the forest. Of the toxins in plants and the detoxifying biochemistry of some herbivores, he writes, The mandala is not a banquet waiting for guests to arrive but a devils buffet of poisoned plates from which herbivores snatch the least deadly morsels. When he sees ichneumon wasps in a fleck of sunlight running about, searching, he harnesses language and his acuity of vision to describe the moment: Every minute or two the wasps flip onto their sides and shudder their legs together, cleaning away the silk that spiders have strewn over the mandala. Then he harnesses history and biology to note that the reproductive habits of the wasps they lay their eggs in caterpillars, which the larvae, when hatched, eat from the inside out posed the problem of evil for Darwin and led him to agnosticism. Science did not, however, give him his most enduring insight, which came while he was watching squirrels on a sunny December day. They were not frantic as usual, he writes. I watch them for an hour, he writes, and mostly they loll in the sun, limbs sprawled. It is a scene that seems a warning against too narrow a reading of nature. Science, he writes, deepens our intimacy with the world. But there is a danger in an exclusively scientific way of thinking. The forest is turned into a diagram; animals become mere mechanisms; natures workings become clever graphs. These loafing squirrels were something else. They are alive; they are our cousins, he writes. And they appear to enjoy the sun, a phenomenon that occurs nowhere in the curriculum of modern biology. Science is one story, he writes, true but not complete, and the world cannot be encompassed in one story. Still, his inner scientist noting, recording, cataloging is never far from the surface. As we sit at the mandala, Dr. Haskell keeps on noticing one small thing after another, even as we are nearing time to head out of the forest. Look, he says, heres a big old cricket. Looks to me like one of the cave crickets with the huge long antennae. Thats a species I have not seen in this circle before.

Federal Budget Limits Affect Scientific Conferences

By LAURA DATTARO

Let the Experts Decide

To the Editor: Re A Spotlight on Compounded Medicines (The Consumer, Oct. 16): Visiting the pharmacy and taking a look before getting anything made there makes me tired just to think about it. I would no more know what to look for than if I had to visit a rocket engine factory. This is why we have the F.D.A. and state regulators to protect the public from missteps in important things we cant possibly have the expertise to vet ourselves. KATHARINE BRILLER Seattle

The Gonorrhea Problem

To the Editor: Re Texting the Teenage Patient (Oct. 9): In the sample text message from a doctor to a young patient asking about risks from kissing, the doctor informs the patient that s/he cannot contract gonorrhea by mouth. But gonorrhea is a rising problem among teenagers, especially because many may believe that oral sex is safe sex. DOROTHEA NAOUAI Bloomfield, N.J.

Science Times welcomes letters from readers. Those submitted for publication must include the writers name, address and telephone number. E-mail should be sent to scitimes@nytimes.com.

After General Services Administration workers were found splurging on hotels, food and catering for a regional conference near Las Vegas two years ago, the Obama administration imposed new guidelines that limit the amount of money that federal agencies can spend on such events. The Office of Management and Budget estimates that the directive saved more than $600 million in the first two quarters of this fiscal year, compared with the same period in 2010. But a number of science and technology organizations are now arguing that the federal belt-tightening is affecting the ability of the scientific community to share research and collaborate. The U.S. Public Policy Council of ACM, the Computing Research Association, the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers have written to Congress and federal officials, asking for an exemption from the spending policy for recognized scientific, technical and educational meetings and meetings of national and international standards bodies. Participation in scientific conferences is a critical opportunity for scientists and engineers to keep current in rapidly changing fields of science and technology, said the letter, dated Sept. 10 and sent to House and Senate leaders of both parties, as well as the federal Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Science and Technology Policy. These conferences facilitate communication among scientists, engineers, practitioners and students. They provide an important venue for presenting cutting-edge research. Representatives from agencies like the Energy Department, NASA, the National Science Foundation and the Defense Department regularly attend conferences to exchange findings with private organizations. Participation in the

events usually includes setting up booths where the federal researchers can demonstrate new technologies. Officials said the meetings emphasize collaboration, as well as education. Last year, for instance, 564 people from the Energy Department attended the 2011 Supercomputing Conference to meet with private groups, speak and present new research. The departments 12 laboratories including Fermilab in Illinois, Brookhaven on Long Island, Los Alamos in New Mexico and Oak Ridge in Tennessee set up booths to exhibit their latest projects, allowing them to demonstrate their work

Scientists say collaboration suffers as agencies hold back.

in a hands-on setting that is vital to the scientific process, critics of the spending policy say. But next month, when 11,000 hardware and software developers and vendors gather in Salt Lake City for the 2012 Supercomputing Conference, or SC12, none of the Energy Departments labs will have their own booths on the 125,000-square-foot exhibit floor, and there will be 172 fewer agency employees, organizers estimate, than in 2011. The Energy Department is still sending nearly 400 employees to participate in the technical program, where scientists can discuss and present their research. But Vinton G. Cerf, president of the Association for Computing Machinery who has been described as one of the fathers of the Internet, said that is not enough. This is a problem not just for the computing research community, but for almost anyone whos involved in scientific work, Mr. Cerf said. The inability

of the government researchers and program managers to participate in these conferences is actually very damaging. Mr. Cerf said he understood the governments interest in cutting costs, but thought the policy was a terrible penny-wise decision. This is not a boondoggle, he said. This is hard work.The government has also had a large presence at Siggraph, an annual international computer graphics and interactives conference, as well as smaller events that might feel the agencies reduced presence even more keenly, Mr. Cerf said. In October 2010, the General Services Administration spent $822,751 to prepare for and hold its Western region annual meeting. A review by the agencys inspector general concluded the spending was excessive, wasteful and in some cases impermissible. Obama administration officials issued a directive in September 2011 for a review of all conference attendance by all agencies to promote efficient spending. In May, Jeffrey D. Zients, acting director of the budget office, issued a memo calling for all agencies to decrease travel spending by 30 percent starting in the new federal fiscal year. It capped spending at a single conference at $100,000 for each agency, and said agencies could spend more than $500,000 on conferences only after review. At SC12, a research booth costs $1,200 to $32,000, depending on size; individual registration ranges from $100 to $750, depending on an attendees status (member, nonmember, student) and the date of registration. Agencies also pay for travel and accommodation for employees. Moira Mack, a spokeswoman for the Office of Management and Budget, said the conference policy was meant to save taxpayers money. Officials estimated that the new rules would save nearly $1.2 billion in fiscal 2013.

As part of the presidents Campaign to Cut Waste, we are aggressively managing travel and conference spending to ensure we are serving Americas families as efficiently as possible without sacrificing vital missions, Ms. Mack said in a statement. At the same time as we root out the waste of taxpayer dollars, the Obama administration is continuing to deliver the critical services the American people depend on, including advancing research and maintaining our leadership in science and innovation. She said the agency had not received the letter from the scientific groups. The Energy Department referred questions to Ms. Mack. Besides limiting spending, the new policy has created confusion in federal agencies, critics say, because individuals do not know how many other agency employees are also attending, and have no idea whether the agency is close to its $100,000 spending limit. Though the federal laboratories are not hosting booths on the SC12 exhibit floor, most are still expected to send representatives who will make technical presentations, said Ian MacConnell, a communications coordinator for SC12. Still, he said, the absence of Energy Department booths will reduce the opportunities to share information. So there will be a lot of aha moments I think that are lost because theyre not able to demonstrate their technologies, he said. Thomas Schlagel, chief information officer at the Brookhaven lab on Long Island, said the conference would still provide a valuable experience. From year to year budgets come and go, and you do the best you can with the budget youre given, he said. But Mr. Cerf said in an era of high unemployment and shifting markets, scientific collaboration was crucial, and limiting it with these kinds of policies cant be good for the United States.

D5

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

MIND

If Smart Is the Norm, Stupidity Gets More Interesting

By DAVID DOBBS

Few of us are as smart as wed like to be. Youre sharper than Jim (maybe) but dull next to Jane. Human intelligence varies. And this matters, because smarter people generally earn more money, enjoy better health, raise smarter children, feel happier and, just to rub it in, live longer as well. But where does intelligence come from? How is it built? Researchers have tried hard to find the answer in our genes. With the rise of inexpensive genome sequencing, theyve analyzed the genomes of thousands of people, looking for gene variants that clearly affect intelligence, and have found a grand total of two. One determines the risk of Alzheimers and affects I.Q. only late

Taking cleverness as an evolutionary given, and looking for deviations.

in life; the other seems to build a bigger brain, but on average it raises I.Q. by all of 1.29 points. Other genetic factors may be at work: A report last year concluded that several hundred gene variants taken together seemed to account for 40 to 50 percent of the differences in intelligence among the 3,500 subjects in the study. But the authors couldnt tell which of these genes created any significant effect. And when they tried to use the genes to predict differences in intelligence, they could account for only 1 percent of the differences in I.Q. If its this hard to find an effect of just 1 percent, Robert Plomin, a professor of behavioral genetics at Kings College London, told New Scientist, what youre really showing is that the cup is 99 percent empty. But is the genetic cup really empty, or are we just looking for the wrong stuff? Kevin Mitchell, a developmental neurogeneticist at Trinity College Dublin, thinks the latter. In an essay he published in July on his blog, Wiring the Brain, Dr. Mitchell proposed that instead of thinking about the genetics of intelligence, we should be trying to parse the genetics of stupidity, as his title put it. We should look not for genetic dynamics that build intelligence but for those that erode it. The premise for this argument is that David Dobbs is the author of the coming book Orchids and Dandelions, which will explore the genetic and cultural roots of temperament.

once natural selection generated the set of genes that build our big, smart human brains, those genes became fixed in the human population; virtually everyone receives the same set, and precious few variants affect intelligence. This could account for the researchers failure to find many variants of measurable effect. But in some other genetic realms we do differ widely, for example, mutational load the number of mutations we carry. This tends to run in families, which means some of us generate and retain more mutations than others do. Among our 23,000 genes, you may carry 500 mutations while I carry 1,000. Most mutations have no effect. But those that do are more likely to bring harm than good, Dr. Mitchell said in an

physical symmetry. The two sides of our bodies and brains are constructed separately but from the same 23,000-gene blueprint. If you have high developmental stability, youll turn out highly symmetrical. Your feet will be the same shoe size, and the two sides of your face will be identical. If youre less developmentally stable, youll have feet up to a halfsize different and a face thats like two faces fused together. Doubt me? Take a digital image of your face and split it down the middle. Then make a mirror-image copy of each half and attach it to its original. In the two faces youve just made one your mirrored left side, the other your right youll behold your own developmental stability, or lack thereof. Both those faces might be better-looking than you are, for we generally find symmetrical faces more attractive. It also happens that symmetry and intelligence tend to run together, because both run with developmental stability. We may find symmetrical faces attractive because they imply the steadiness of genetic development, which creates valuable assets for choosing a mate, like better general fitness and, of course, intelligence or as Dr. Mitchell might put it, a relative lack of stupidity. These ideas dont strike geneticists as radical or contrary. Leonid Kruglyak, a Princeton geneticist who studies yeast and flatworms, noted in an e-mail that geneticists had long recognized that mutations could throw sand in the gears of the brain and that complex traits arose in complicated ways. Talking about a gene for a trait is a shorthand at best, he wrote, and a well-known fallacy at worst. Dr. Mitchell agreed. This isnt a brand-new idea, he said. But its not one that has been generally adhered to in intelligence studies. Not brand-new, perhaps. But its LARS LEETARU this kind of inversion of thought (as Janet Kwasniak, a retired biolinterview, because there are simply ogist, put it on her neuroscience blog, many more ways of screwing someThoughts on Thoughts) that can often thing up than of improving it. spark new approaches to intractable Open the hood of a smooth-running problems. car and randomly turn a few screws, Dr. Jay Giedd, who studies brain deand youll almost certainly make the envelopment at the National Institutes of gine run worse than before. Likewise, Health, has done research suggesting mutations that change the brains northat the brain blooms through many mal development or operation will probsmall arcs of development that make it ably slow it down. Smart Jane may be responsive to experience and vulnerless a custom-built, high-performance able to error. At first, he said in an model than a standard version pulling a e-mail, he was skeptical of Dr. Mitchells smaller mutational load. idea. Then he discussed it with colWe also inherit through genes yet leagues at a neuroscience meeting. to be identified, of course a trait My initial thought was that it would known as developmental stability. This be easy to sink the argument, Dr. is essentially the accuracy with which Giedd said. But the more they discussed the genetic blueprint is built. Developit, the more sense it made. Everybody mental stability keeps the project on I ran it by seemed to feel the logic is sound. track. It reveals itself most obviously in

Vast Array Is Challenge In Choosing Hearing Aid

By TRICIA ROMANO

The crackling noises coming from my left ear werent a good sign. Last year, when my decade-old analog hearing aid started making popping sounds, I knew I had to replace it. But because hearing aids are so costly and generally arent covered by insurance, I had put it off. I soon learned that in the last 10 years, purchasing a hearing aid had become even more difficult and confusing than buying a new car and almost as expensive. The first salesman I visited, in Los Angeles, looked at the hairline fracture on my wax-encrusted aid. He warned me that it could shatter in my ear and advised me to get a new one on the spot. Alarmed, I visited Hearx, the national chain where I had bought my previous aids. There, a fastidious young man spread out a brochure for my preferred brand, Siemens, and showed me three models. The cheapest, a Siemens Motion 300, started at $1,600. The top-of-the-line model was more than $2,000 for one ear. I gasped. Ive worn hearing aids for more than 30 years; Ive had profound hearing loss in my right ear and moderate loss in the left ear, the one where I wear the aid, since I was 5. So I am probably savvier than most first-time customers, many of them elderly and scared of what might happen if they dont buy an expensive aid. A hearing aid is basically just a microphone and amplifier in your ear. It isnt clear why it costs thousands of dollars. But the digital era has ushered in new technology: Manufacturers boasted of Bluetooth, multiple settings, channels and bands, which processed sound and finetuned it like a stereos equalizer. Perhaps that was why the Hearx Continued on Page 6

CHRISTOPH NIEMANN

Really?
PHYS ED

Gretchen Reynolds

THE CLAIM

You May Want to Stand Up for This: Sitting Is Bad

Just as we were all settling in front of the television to watch the baseball playoffs, two new studies about the perils of sitting have spoiled our viewing pleasure. The research, published in separate medical journals this month, adds to a growing scientific consensus that the more time someone spends sitting, especially in front of the television, the shorter and less robust his or her life may be. To reach that conclusion, the authors of one of the studies, published in The British Journal of Sports Medicine, turned to data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study, a large, continuing survey of the health habits of almost 12,000 Australian adults. Along with questions about general health, disease status, exercise regimens, smoking, diet and so on, the survey asked respondents how many hours per day in the previous week they had spent sitting in front of the television. Watching television is not, of course, in and of itself hazardous, unless you doze off and accidentally slip from the couch onto a hard floor. But television viewing time is a useful, if somewhat imprecise, marker of how much someone is engaging in so-called sedentary behavior. People can answer a question like, How much time did you spend watching TV yesterday? much better than a question like How much time did you spend sitting yesterday? said Dr. J. Lennert Veerman, a senior research fellow at the University of Queensland, who led the new study. Australians, as it turns out, watch lots of telly. According to the survey data, in 2008, the year that the researchers chose as their benchmark, Australian adults viewed a collective 9.8 billion hours of television. Using complex actuarial tables and adjusting for smoking, waist circumference, dietary quality, exercise habits and other variables, the scientists were next able to isolate the specific effect that the hours of sitting seemed to be having on peoples life spans. And the findings were sobering: Every single hour of television watched afall day, said Dr. Emma Wilmot, a research fellow at the University of Leicester in England, who led the study. We might convince ourselves that we are not at risk of disease because we manage the recommended 30 minutes of exercise a day. But, she said, we are still at risk if we sit all day. Why a seemingly blameless activity like sitting should be detrimental to health, even for those of us who work out, is not fully understood, although it is assiduously being studied at many labs. One partial explanation, however, is obvious. The most striking feature of prolonged sitting is the absence of skeletal muscle contractions, particularly in the very large muscles of the lower limbs, said David W. Dunstan, a professor at the Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute in Australia, senior author of the Australian study and a pioneer in the study of sedentary behavior. When muscles dont contract, they require less fuel, and the surplus, in the form of blood sugar, accumulates in the bloodstream, contributing to diabetes risk and other health concerns. Thankfully, excessive sitting is theoretically easy to combat. First, cut TV time. The evidence indicates that four hours per day is in the risky category, Dr. Dunstan said, while less than two hours per day is in the lower-risk group. Then look to the rest of your day. When Dr. Wilmot asked a group of volunteers recently to reduce their daily sitting time by an hour, they came up with lots of ideas, she said, including putting the garbage bin on the other side of the office, standing during coffee breaks and telephone calls, having standing meetings, standing on the bus. But dont, she emphasizes, cease exercising. There is absolutely no doubt that exercise is beneficial for health, she said. It just may not, by itself, be sufficient for health. If you exercise for 30 minutes a day, she said, take time to reflect on your activity levels for the remaining 23.5 hours, and aim to be active, sit less.

The mothers kiss is an effective home remedy.

THE FACTS Some well-known home remedies for common childhood ailments are ineffective and potentially harmful, like putting butter on a burn. But others may have some scientific justification. Among the latter is the so-called mothers kiss, a remedy for removing foreign objects from a childs nose, a rather frequent occurrence among children ages 2 to 5. The technique calls for a parent to press shut the childs unaffected nostril with her finger, then place her mouth over the childs mouth and deliver a short but sharp puff of air to expel the object from the obstructed nostril. Elegant it is not. But the goal is to avoid a trip to the hospital and a potentially painful removal. The technique was first described 50 years ago by a New Jersey doctor, and this month, in a report published in The Canadian Medical Association Journal, it gained some credence. Reviewing the medical literature, the researchers pooled results from eight previous studies that had evaluated the efficacy and safety of the technique. They found that it was about 60 percent effective, and unlikely in most instances to cause further injury or adverse events. Like many other folk remedies subjected to scientific scrutiny, the mothers kiss seems to be a relatively cheap, safe and effective cure for a common problem, said Dr. Lawrence Rosen, author of the new book Treatment Alternatives for Children. Dr. Rosen said parents could give the technique two attempts. If both fail, or if it is unclear what the object is and it cannot be seen, they should seek medical help, he said. THE BOTTOM LINE According to research, the mothers kiss remedy appears safe and largely effective. ANAHAD OCONNOR scitimes@nytimes.com

DAVID DE LOSSY/GETTY IMAGES

More evidence that sedentary behavior means a shorter and less robust life.
ter the age of 25 reduces the viewers life expectancy by 21.8 minutes. By comparison, smoking a single cigarette reduces life expectancy by about 11 minutes, the authors said. Looking more broadly, they concluded that an adult who spends an average of six hours a day watching TV over the course of a lifetime can expect to live 4.8 years fewer than a person who does not watch TV. Those results hold true, the authors point out, even for people who exercise regularly. It appears, Dr. Veerman said, that a person who does a lot of exercise but watches six hours of TV every night might have a similar mortality risk as someone who does not exercise

and watches no TV. These rather unnerving results jibe with those of another new study of sitting, published last week in the journal Diabetologia. Its authors reviewed data from 18 studies involving 794,577 people. Many of the studies measured full-day sitting time, covering not only hours whiled away in front of the television, but also time spent in a chair at work. Together, those hours consumed a majority of a persons life. The average adult spends 50 to 70 percent of their time sitting, the authors reported. The researchers then cross-referenced sitting time with health outcomes and found that those people with the highest sedentary behavior, meaning those who sat the most, had a 112 percent increase in their relative risk of developing diabetes, a 147 percent increase in their risk for cardiovascular disease, and a 49 percent greater risk of dying prematurely even if they regularly exercised. Many of us in modern society have jobs which involve sitting at a computer

D6

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Global Update Donald G. McNeil Jr.

Curbing the Enthusiasm on Multivitamins

From First Science Page balanced diet rich in fruits and vegetables. Until now, the consensus has been that there is insufficient scientific evidence to justify taking a multivitamin to prevent cancer or other chronic diseases. Though a large trial in Linxian, China, found decreases in stomach cancer in people randomly assigned to supplements including vitamin E, selenium and beta carotene, that population suffered from chronic nutritional deficiencies, and stomach cancer was more common than in the United States. A review by the National Institutes of Health in 2006 concluded that evidence was insufficient to prove the presence or absence of benefits from use of multivitamin and mineral supplements. More recently, the Institute of Medicine cautioned people on vitamin D and calcium supplements, saying that most healthy adults do not need them and that high doses of calcium have been linked to kidney stones and heart disease and that high doses of vitamin D may also be harmful. Dr. J. Michael Gaziano, a cardiologist at Brigham and Womens Hospital and the V.A. Boston Healthcare System who is the lead author of the new multivitamin study, said the main reason to take a multivitamin was, and continues to be, to prevent nutritional deficiencies. He was reluctant to speculate about how a multivitamin might curb cancer. One of the dominant hypotheses, he noted, is that certain vitamins are antioxidants that protect aging cells against oxidative damage caused by free radicals, harmful molecules resulting from metabolic processes within cells. The physicians study was a type of clinical trial considered highly reliable at determining cause and effect: participants were randomly assigned to take either a multivitamin or a placebo. But they were not representative of the population at large. The doctors were a fairly homogeneous, well-educated group, less racially and ethnically diverse than the population as a whole, with far fewer smokers. And, there were no women. The results are promising, but we want to make sure the effects would be similar and certainly not harmful across different populations, said Marji McCullough, a nutritional epidemiologist with the American Cancer Society. Its worth trying to replicate these findings to see if theyre generalizable to women, smokers and others. Dr. McCullough also noted that there are different multivitamin combinations and the trial results would apply only to the specific formulation used in the study. Pfizer donated the multivitamins, called Centrum Silver, but the company has tinkered with the formula since the trial began reducing the amount of vitamin A, for example, and adding the nutrients lutein and lycopene. Generally speaking, people who take vitamins are a relatively healthy bunch to begin with, experts say. They tend to eat a varied and healthful diet, watch their weight and be physically active. Its not always clear that

CHERYL GERBER

EASTERN SEABOARD

Snakes Serve as a Safe Winter Home For a Deadly Mosquito-Borne Virus

A mosquito-borne virus that is rare but kills some horses and humans along the Eastern Seaboard every year almost certainly survives winters inside snakes, a new study has found. The Eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus is found from Florida to Massachusetts and in parts of Latin America. The virus causing the disease normally circulates only in birds, but when it jumps to mammals, it kills 90 percent of infected horses and about a third of the roughly 10 Americans who get it each year. But birds fly away in winter and, unlike West Nile virus, the triple E virus cannot survive in hibernating mosquitoes. Curious scientists at the University of South Florida and Auburn examined mosquitoes guts and found snake blood. The researchers infected garter snakes in the lab with the virus and then made them hibernate in refrigerators. The virus lived. So the scientists ventured out into the Tuskegee National Forest swamp in Alabama, vacuuming mosquitoes out of beaver dens and drawing blood from poisonous cottonmouths (above). They found that virus levels in the snakes peaked in the spring and fall, said Thomas R. Unnasch, lead author of the study, published online by The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Snakes immune systems work better when its warm, he said, so they do not clear the virus in cool weather. In spring, when they venture out to warm up, mosquitoes pick up the virus again by biting snakes. P.S.: Mosquitoes cannot pierce a snakes skin; they go through its eye.

CARL WIENS

the benefits they attribute to vitamins actually result from the pills. Theres a mystique about vitamins, that vitamins are some type of magical ingredient, said David G. Schardt, senior nutritionist for the Center for Science in the Public Interest, an advocacy group in Washington. There is a kernel of truth in that, because vitamins are essential to life. But that people will live longer or healthier lives if they take vitamins or eat foods fortified with vitamins thats difficult to prove. This year the center pressed Pfizer to change Centrum labels that said the multivitamins supported breast health and colon

Vital Signs Nicholas Bakalar

PATTERNS

Several studies of supplements have not had promising results.

health. Such claims have to be approved in advance by the Food and Drug Administration, and even though the labels did not say explicitly that the supplements prevent cancer, the center alleged that was the implied message. Experts are particularly concerned about letting the enthusiasm get ahead of the scientific evidence, because some vitamin trials have led to frighteningly paradoxical results. In two separate studies, smokers who were given supplements of high doses of beta carotene unexpectedly developed more lung cancers than those on placebos. Beta carotene was believed to protect against cancer, but it appears that in smokers lungs, the high dos-

Proximity to Livestock Raises a MRSA Risk

People living near large concentrations of farm animals are at increased risk for carrying livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or LA-MRSA, even if they have had no direct contact with animals, a new study has found. Researchers studied 27 people with nose swabs positive for LAMRSA and 60 control subjects carrying other types of the bacterium. The study, published in the November issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases, found that 12 of those who tested positive for LAMRSA had had no contact with animals. By plotting the locations of cases and controls against the regional populations of livestock, the investigators found that living in an area dense with livestock is a significant risk factor for carrying LA-MRSA, regardless of contact with farm animals. Previous research has found that LA-MRSA is not transmitted person to person, but these findings suggest that it might be. It is possible, the authors write, that the germ could be transmitted by contact with other domestic animals, by air or by farm waste. LA-MRSA appears to be less virulent than other strains, said the lead author, Beth J. Feingold, a researcher at Johns Hopkins. But some research suggests that there is a possibility that, like with any bacteria, it can evolve into something more virulent, which is why its important to cover our bases now.

es actually caused DNA damage instead of protecting against it, Dr. McCullough said. Another large study, involving 35,000 men who were given vitamin E and selenium in the hopes of reducing prostate cancers, also had disappointing results. While deficiencies of certain nutrients can be harmful, an excess in some cases may also be bad, said Dr. Joel B. Mason, professor of medicine and nutrition at Tufts University. Like some medications, certain nutrients and vitamins may need to be delivered within a specific optimal range to confer benefit, he said, a concept he and others have termed a Goldilocks phenomenon. I think there is pretty compelling evidence that habitual underconsumption of folate does lead to an increase in colon cancer, and perhaps a few other types of cancer as well, Dr. Mason said. Folate is an essential factor in the synthesis and repair of DNA. But giving a well-nourished population folate supplements does not seem to decrease the risk further, Dr. Mason said, and some studies have indicated that in some people who take extraordinarily large amounts of folate, there may be a paradoxical increase in colorectal cancer. One of the important observations of the new study is that a daily multivitamin appears to be fairly safe. That may also help shape the direction of future research, said Dr. Albanes, the senior investigator at the National Cancer Institute. The idea that if a little is good, more is better led to trials with higher doses that didnt necessarily come to fruition, Dr. Albanes said. This points us in the direction of the kinds of dosages that should be considered for prevention. Its food for thought.

An Overwhelming Array of Hearing Aids

report from the Hearing Review and House Institute, is $3,000. In other words, my shopping experience could have been much worse. When I told a friend about the sticker shock, she said, Why dont you check out Costco? The chain started selling hearing aids in 1993, and now has 438 hearing aid centers. At Costco, a basic in-the-ear shell hearing aid costs $500, with the most advanced behindthe-ear models going for $1,300. And unlike the Internet retailers, Costco offers face-to-face service with hearing aid dispensers and audiologists for custom fittings. As a company, we made a decision to go after this business, said Richard Chavez, a Costco senior vice president. I mean, to really try to become the best in the world. Costcos prices are less than half than the industry standard, despite the fact that its hearing aids are produced by the same major companies, including Rexton (a brand made by Siemens) and GN ReSound. Its in-house brand of aids, Kirkland Signature, is also built by Siemens. And unlike many private hearing aid dispensers, Costco employees dont work on commission. Not surprisingly, Costco isnt winning any popularity contests in the industry. Oh, they hate Costco, Mr. Freuler said. Sam Tanzer, a founder of an online store called Embrace Hearing (where prices run from $399 to $899), said that private retailers had to raise prices to cover fixed costs. When you think about your typical independent audiologist charging $6,000 for a set of hearing aids, hes not getting rich, he said. Costco just has much more efficient overheads. They dont have to pay a receptionist; they dont have to lease separate space. Admittedly, my experience at Costco was mixed. The inexperienced hearing aid dispenser suggested a brand, Bernafon, that I was not familiar with. The sound was compressed and tinny; it never sounded or fit right and had to be remade several times. After seven or so visits, I was beginning to believe the adage You get what you pay for (in this case, $950). When I moved to Seattle last year, I went back to Costco and explained my situation. Though nearly a year had passed, the store accepted a complete return and gave me a new brand, which fit perfectly. However, I may not have needed a new aid at all. Far into my Costco experience, I saw a nondescript sign in Culver City, Calif., for a hearing aid professional. I rang the doorbell, located discreetly inside an eyeglass shop, and an older man beckoned me to a small, windowless room with wood-paneled walls and shelves filled with odds and ends of the trade: hearing aid boxes, batteries, replacement parts, silicone molds. I told him about my misadventures and he looked at my cracked, wax-encrusted aid the one I was told was so dangerous it needed to be immediately replaced. He put a stethoscope in his ear and listened to it. He said that he could clean out the wax and have the shell repaired and that it would work just fine. His price: $100.

PREVENTION

Thinking Twice About Health Checkups

In an analysis of studies including more than 180,000 subjects, researchers have found that general health checkups like annual physicals or other visits to the doctor by asymptomatic people are ineffective and possibly harmful. The investigators found no evidence that an annual physical will prevent death by cancer, cardiovascular disease or any other cause. Nor did they find any effect on hospital admissions, disability, additional visits to the doctor or absences from work. The researchers, writing in the October issue of The Cochrane Library, found that health checkups have no effect on clinical events or other measures of morbidity. But one trial found an increased rate of diagnoses of hypertension and high cholesterol, the scientists noted, and another found a 20 percent increase in the number of new diagnoses per patient. One possible harm, the authors point out, is that the checkups can lead to unnecessary treatment of conditions that would not cause symptoms or death. The authors acknowledge that most of the studies are old, which may make the findings less applicable to modern health settings. Were not concluding that prevention is useless, said the lead author, Dr. Lasse Krogsboll, a researcher at the Cochrane Center in Copenhagen. One possible reason we couldnt find an effect is that primary care physicians might be doing a good job in preventing illness, so that adding a systematic effort does not add anything except perhaps harms.

SUZANNE D eCHILLO/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Costco also sells hearing aids at many of its stores, offering a basic shell for $500 and advanced models at prices comparable to those of online retailers.
CONVENIENCE

From Page 5 salesman bristled when I asked what I could get for $1,000. He likened the expensive model with 16 channels to listening to an orchestra and the eight-channel model to a car stereo. He didnt show me any other options. It was as if Id gone into a car lot and had been presented with only Mercedeses, Porsches and Ferraris, when I wanted to see a Honda. Feeling pressured, I ordered the cheap aid. But I quickly canceled the order and started researching my options. I learned not only that now you can buy hearing aids online, but also that Costco a place where you typically get toilet paper in bulk has gotten into the hearing aid business. Why have hearing aids become more expensive, while cellphones, computers and televisions have gotten cheaper? Russ Apfel, an engineer who designed a technology now found in all hearing aids, says there is no good reason for this. The hearing aid industry uses every new thing, like digital or a new algorithm, to raise prices, said Mr. Apfel, whose company, Audiotoniq, aims to sell sophisticated but affordable devices. The semiconductor industry traditionally reduces the cost of products by 10 to 15 percent a year, he said, but hearing aids go up 8 percent a year annually and have for the last 20 years. The microphones, speakers and processing chips arent that expensive. Those devices in small volumes cost $10 to $15, Mr. Apfel said. He estimated that most hearing aids cost no more than $100 to make. Indeed, less expensive hearing aids are available online. At Audicus.com, prices run from $399 to $599, a discount made possible by eliminating the middleman the hearing aid dispenser. Retailers/audiologists account for up to 70 percent of the final price of

a hearing aid, because they factor in a bundle of additional expensive services, the site states. The big discussion right now in the industry is about unbundling, said Audicuss founder, Patrick Freuler. The consumer has absolutely no idea how much is the cost of the device, how much is the cost of the service that went into testing, advising, programming, your after-sales support. All the customer sees at the end of it is one big fat price tag that says, $2,000. And all of those channels are mostly mar-

REGIMENS

Study Questions Benefit of Extra Vitamin D

Although some observational studies have suggested that supplements of vitamin D reduce the risk of vascular disease and mortality, a new placebo-controlled, randomized trial has found that the supplements have no effect on the most common blood markers for cardiovascular risk and death. Researchers randomly assigned 305 healthy postmenopausal British women to a placebo or to 400 or 1,000 units of vitamin D. They all started their regimens at the same time of year to assure they all got the same amount of sunlight, which also affects vitamin D levels. The study, in the October issue of The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, found no significant differences between the placebo and treatment groups in blood levels of total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, triglycerides or C-reactive protein, all known risks for heart disease. Nor were there any differences in insulin resistance or blood pressure. Blood pressure went down in summer and up in winter in all groups seasonal changes that earlier studies may have mistakenly attributed to vitamin D supplementation, the authors said. The study actually shows that vitamin D does not protect you against heart disease, said Helen M. Macdonald, a senior lecturer at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland, who led the study. Thats not what people want to hear, but its true.

Feeling pressure to buy a top-of-the-line device with a big price tag.

keting. For someone with mild to moderate hearing loss, the average hearing aid today is completely overengineered, Mr. Freuler said. He cited studies showing that four or five channels improve speech intelligibility. There is a downside to buying online: Hearing aids need to be mailed in for adjustments, an imperfect option. Deborah Carlson, president of the American Academy of Audiology, said that the high prices included research and development, and pointed out that audiologists at private clinics provide customized service, including real ear measurements and repeated followup visits. Theyre going to understand your hearing loss better than a Web site, she said. Cindy Beyer, an audiologist and a senior vice president of HearUSA, the parent company of HearX, said in an e-mail that the company offers aids as low as $850 but that the average cost of a hearing aid, according to a

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

D7

PERSONAL HEALTH

Jane E. Brody

In Fighting Obesity, Drink Sizes Matter

I recently met a slender, health-conscious young woman who insisted that the size of sugar-sweetened drinks should not be legislated. Getting people to drink less of them should be done through education, she said. It is an opinion shared by many others. Some may be unaware of the role that these beverages are playing in the growing epidemics of obesity and Type 2 diabetes. Few know the disappointing history of efforts to change behavior solely through education. The woman was reacting to a New York City regulation, to take effect in March, limiting to 16 ounces the size of sugar-sweetened soft drinks sold at restaurants, street carts, movie theaters and sporting events. Convenience stores, vending machines and some newsstands are exempted. Several new studies underscore the public health potential of the restriction. If it succeeds, it is likely to be copied elsewhere, because the nations love affair with super-size sugary soft drinks is costing cities and states billions of dollars annually in medical care.

Limits of Progesterone In Curbing Early Birth

By NICHOLAS BAKALAR

YVETTA FEDOROVA

Sweet Tooth Run Amok

We are all born with a natural preference for sweetness, which through evolution enabled us to know when fruits were ripe and ready to eat. But as Gary K. Beauchamp, a biopsychologist and director of the Monell Chemical Senses Center in Philadelphia, has put it, Weve separated the good taste from the good food. Our sweet tooth is no longer working to our advantage. No one claims that sugar-sweetened drinks are the only reason Americans are fatter and have developed high rates of Type 2 diabetes. But at no time in history have we eaten more caloric sweeteners than we do today, and soft drinks are the main culprit. Sugar-sweetened drinks, the single largest source of calories in our diet, account for nearly half of the total added sugars we consume and 7 percent of our total calories nearly 15 percent in some groups, including adolescent boys. University of Wisconsin researchers reported in 2005 that the average student consumes 31 pounds of sugar in sweetened beverages annually. Coca-Cola once came in 8-ounce bottles with 97 calories. Today people buy 12-ounce cans with 145 calories (the equivalent of 10 teaspoons of table sugar); 20-ounce bottles with 242 calories; 32-ounce Big Gulps with 388 calories; 44-ounce Super Big Gulps with 533 calories; and 64-ounce Double Gulps with 776 calories. There are but small differences in price among these choices. These calories are nutritionally empty, unlike those from fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, fish and dairy products, all of which are life-sustaining sources of essential nutrients. Barbara J. Rolls, professor of nutritional sciences at Penn State, has shown that liquid calories lack a sufficient satiety factor. When people have soft drinks, they dont compensate adequately by eating fewer calo-

ries from solid foods. Brian Wansink, director of the Food and Brand Laboratory at Cornell, said beverages arent as filling as solid food because they lack texture and mouth feel, and we tend to consume them so fast they dont register. Many observational studies have linked consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages to weight gain in children, and to weight gain and Type 2 diabetes in adults. But the new research goes well beyond those findings. In one study among women followed for four years, consuming one or more of these drinks per day nearly doubled the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, compared with women who drank fewer than one a month. And the authors concluded that those who drank more sugary drinks also increased energy intake calories, that is from other foods, indicating that these beverages may even induce hunger and food intake. Two recent studies in The New England Journal of Medicine looked at the effects on weight in children and adolescents when sugar-free beverages were substituted for those with caloric sweeteners. In both cases, limiting sweet liquid calories curtailed weight gain in children, compared with those who continued to consume sugared drinks. The authors of one of the studies, conducted in the Netherlands, noted, Children in the United States consume on average almost three times as many calories from sugar-sweetened beverages, compared with Dutch children. Soon after the end of the other study, conducted among adolescents in the Boston area, the youngsters reverted to consuming readily available sugary drinks, which speaks to the importance of both education and regulation. The senior author, Dr. David S. Ludwig, said the findings emphasized the need for public policy changes. It suggests that if we want long-term changes in body weight, we will need to make long-term, permanent changes in the

environment for children, he told The New York Times when the report was published. A third study, published with the first two, found an important link between genetics and the effects of sugary drinks on weight. Men and women with a genetic predisposition to gain weight experienced a more pronounced effect from sugar-sweetened beverages than did people lacking 32 genes associated with greater body mass index.

Improving Health Habits

Education matters. If I didnt believe that, I would have long since abandoned my role as a public health educator. But history clearly shows that education is not enough. It must be accompanied by restrictions that curb unhealthy habits and with environmental changes that foster healthier ones. Cigarette smoking is a classic example. Well-publicized reports documenting its hazards even warnings on cigarette packs did relatively little to get people to quit smoking and keep others from taking it up. It was not until smoking was banned in workplaces, restaurants, public buildings and transportation that millions gave it up. Today only about one American man in five smokes, down from nearly one in two 40 years ago. Just as the tobacco industry disputed the link between smoking and lung cancer for years, the American Beverage Association says there is no proof that sugary beverages are major players in obesity and diabetes. But why wait decades for conclusive evidence, by which time millions will have been sickened or died from obesity? It is not as if there are no readily available alternatives to sugar-sweetened drinks, including ones with noncaloric sweeteners and waters with and without carbonation, flavored or plain. If such beverages were less expensive and prominently displayed, and more venues limited the size and availability of sugared drinks, we could start on the path so well trod during our antismoking efforts.

The hormone progesterone, administered by injection or vaginally to pregnant women, has been helpful in reducing the chances that a woman who has had one preterm birth will have another. Two previous trials have also found progesterone useful in preventing preterm births among women with a short cervix, another known risk group. But those studies, using the vaginal form of the drug, looked only at women who had a cervical length of less than 20 millimeters only 2 percent of the population. Scientists have hoped the hormone would benefit even more women, making a significant dent in the number of preterm births each year. Now a new randomized double-blinded trial, published online in The American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology, reports that progesterone in its injected form does not work for a much larger risk group: the 10 percent of women with a cervix shorter than 30 millimeters. These women have about the same risk of having a preterm birth around 25 percent as those who have already had one. The study emphasizes that because progesterone works for one group at risk for preterm birth doesnt mean that it can automatically be extended to others, said the lead author of the study, Dr. William A. Grobman, a professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Northwestern. Researchers randomly assigned 657 women to a weekly injection of a form of progesterone or to a placebo shot. All were pregnant for the first time with a single baby, and each had a cervical length of less than 30 millimeters at 16 to 22 weeks gestation. The women were followed through discharge from the hospital. The scientists were unable to find any significant differences in birth outcomes between the two groups. Of those who took the progester-

one, 25.1 percent delivered prematurely (at less than 37 weeks) and so did 24.2 percent of those on the placebo. The average gestational age at delivery was the same in each group. The numbers of deliveries at less than 35 weeks, less than 32 weeks, and less than 28 weeks were practically the same in those who had taken the drug and those who had taken the placebo. By more than a dozen different measures of maternal and fetal health, too, the researchers could find no difference between the two groups. Even the side effects mostly pain or soreness at the injection site were the same. Some researchers, like Dr. Sonia S. Hassan, the associate dean for maternal, perinatal

Hormone shots are seen as helpful to only a small group of women at risk.
and child health at Wayne State University in Detroit, advocate cervical length screening for all pregnant women. If its found to be short, she said, they should receive vaginal progesterone. The injectable form is commonly used for women with a prior preterm birth. I would advise women to speak with their physicians to see if they are candidates for that. The vaginal form of the drug has not been tested in the larger group of women with a cervix shorter than 30 millimeters, only in the relatively few women with a cervix shorter than 20 millimeters. Dr. Grobman noted that the health and economic burden of preterm birth is enormous. Its incredibly important to investigate which risk groups can benefit, and whether our strategies in general can be useful in preventing preterm birth, he said.

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D8

THE NEW YORK TIMES, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2012

Weather Report
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High 65. A front will develop between a high pressure center to the south and another high to the north. This will cause increasing clouds followed by showers in parts of the area.
TONIGHT.................................. A few showers

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Low 57. The front will be draped across the region. It will bring cloudy skies along with a couple of showers. The night will be mild for the latter part of October.
TOMORROW ............................. Mostly cloudy

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Normal lows

80s 0
Honolulu San Antonio

70s Hilo 0s H s

90s 90s s 90s

M errey Monter er

Hou ouston

C Corpus Christi

Miami Nassau Weather patterns shown as expected at noon today, Eastern time.

The front will push a little to the south as high pressure near New England strengthens. This may cause the temperature to trend a bit lower as clouds continue to limit sunshine.
FRIDAY SATURDAY ............................ Mild, mainly dry

40

10s
Fa Fairban a n nks

70s s
TODAYS HIGHS

20s 20s s
Anchorage orag

<0

0s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

70s

80s

90s

100+

30s
Juneau eau COLD WARM FRONTS STATIONARY COMPLEX COLD

L
MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOWERS T-STORMS RAIN FLURRIES SNOW ICE PRECIPITATION

HIGH LOW PRESSURE

40s 0s

High pressure will bring tranquil weather with above-average temperatures. There will be varying amounts of clouds and sun each day with highs of 68 Friday and 69 Saturday.

Actual High Low

Forecast range High Low

Record lows

Highlight: Building Warmth This Week

A strengthening ridge of high pressure across the eastern half of the nation will allow warmth to build during much of the week, east of the Mississippi. The one exception will be eastern New England, where a weak backdoor front will cause an onshore flow, leading to temperatures closer to normal.
JET STREAM

National Forecast
An area of high pressure centered near the North Carolina coast will help to pump warm air across most of the eastern twothirds of the United States today. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms will rumble across North Dakota, the Great Lakes and along the border of New York and Pennsylvania. North of these showers and thunderstorms, temperatures will be held to seasonable values throughout the New England region. Meanwhile, places from the northern Rockies to the Northwest and California will stay quite cool for late October. Rain and mountain snow showers will also persist over this area, with Southern California being the exception. Ahead of the chill, a breeze will blow over the Four Corners region.
81/ 69/ 80/ 82/ 86/ 71/ 70/ 80/ 83/ 77/ 82/ 79/ 85/ 72/ 87/ 76/ 59/ 53/ 64/ 80/ 50/ 79/ 63/ 64/ 55/ 86/ 69/ 64/ 64/ 88/ 51/ 75/ 42/ 84/ 86/ 63/ 86/ 74/ 85/ 82/ 77/ 78/ 86/ 72/ 61 56 56 61 76 60 59 52 67 57 63 60 69 58 63 57 39 42 50 52 34 54 54 47 39 67 60 54 51 77 39 52 27 63 77 54 69 56 57 66 57 59 64 57 PC PC PC S PC T F S S S PC F PC PC S C PC Sh PC S C S Sh C PC PC PC C C PC Sh F Sh T PC Sh PC T S PC S S PC PC 82/ 74/ 80/ 81/ 85/ 73/ 70/ 80/ 84/ 80/ 82/ 80/ 86/ 75/ 84/ 78/ 55/ 54/ 59/ 82/ 51/ 82/ 66/ 62/ 51/ 86/ 68/ 64/ 64/ 86/ 50/ 60/ 46/ 85/ 86/ 65/ 86/ 77/ 84/ 85/ 80/ 82/ 86/ 78/ 64 57 57 64 78 60 40 55 67 56 61 45 69 58 56 57 37 37 45 56 36 57 51 47 36 70 60 54 52 78 33 35 26 64 78 51 69 55 50 64 55 59 53 57 S PC S S PC PC T S PC S PC T PC PC S PC C R C S Sh S Sh Sh C PC PC Sh C T C C C S PC Sh PC PC S PC S PC PC PC New Delhi Riyadh Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Taipei Tehran Tokyo Europe Amsterdam Athens Berlin Brussels Budapest Copenhagen Dublin Edinburgh Frankfurt Geneva Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon London Madrid Moscow Nice Oslo Paris Prague Rome St. Petersburg Stockholm Vienna Warsaw North America Acapulco Bermuda Edmonton Guadalajara Havana Kingston Martinique Mexico City Monterrey Montreal Nassau Panama City Quebec City Santo Domingo Toronto Vancouver Winnipeg South America Buenos Aires Caracas Lima Quito Recife Rio de Janeiro Santiago 90/ 92/ 63/ 73/ 88/ 63/ 86/ 72/ 73/ 64 65 48 59 77 55 68 55 61 0 0 0.80 0.35 0.13 0.34 0 0 0.03 88/ 89/ 60/ 72/ 88/ 70/ 75/ 72/ 73/ 63 67 45 55 76 48 70 59 55 PC S S S T PC Sh T R 88/ 90/ 68/ 71/ 88/ 81/ 81/ 73/ 68/ 59 67 52 63 77 54 72 57 58 S S C PC T S PC S PC

Metropolitan Almanac
In Central Park for the 16 hours ended at 4 p.m. yesterday.
Temperature
Record high 88 (1979)

Precipitation (in inches)

Yesterday ............... 0.00 Record .................... 1.45 For the last 30 days Actual ..................... 3.97 Normal .................... 4.37 For the last 365 days Actual ................... 40.61 Normal .................. 49.92
Normal high 62
LAST 30 DAYS

80

SUN.

YESTERDAY

70

66 4 p.m.

ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH

60

Air pressure
High ........... 30.14 9 a.m. Low ............ 30.04 3 p.m.

Humidity
High ............. 73% 7 a.m. Low.............. 36% 4 p.m.

50 49 7 a.m. 40

Normal low 48

Heating Degree Days

An index of fuel consumption that tracks how far the days mean temperature fell below 65 Yesterday ..................................................................... 7 So far this month ...................................................... 149 So far this season (since July 1) .............................. 171 Normal to date for the season ................................. 205

Record low 30 (1940)

Cities
High/low temperatures for the 16 hours ended at 4 p.m. yesterday, Eastern time, and precipitation (in inches) for the 16 hours ended at 4 p.m. yesterday. Expected conditions for today and tomorrow.

C ....................... Clouds F ............................ Fog H .......................... Haze I............................... Ice PC........... Partly cloudy R ........................... Rain Sh ................... Showers
N.Y.C. region New York City Bridgeport Caldwell Danbury Islip Newark Trenton White Plains United States Albany Albuquerque Anchorage Atlanta Atlantic City Austin Baltimore Baton Rouge Birmingham Boise Boston Buffalo Burlington Casper Charlotte Chattanooga Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Colorado Springs Columbus Concord, N.H. Dallas-Ft. Worth Denver Des Moines Detroit El Paso Fargo Hartford Honolulu Houston Indianapolis Jackson Jacksonville Kansas City Key West Las Vegas Lexington Yesterday 66/ 49 0 69/ 45 0 69/ 42 0 66/ 42 0 66/ 46 0 71/ 49 0 68/ 46 0 65/ 48 0 Yesterday 63/ 43 0 73/ 49 0 33/ 19 0 78/ 52 0 69/ 54 0 86/ 67 0 70/ 47 0 85/ 60 0 80/ 53 0 57/ 37 0.23 67/ 50 0 63/ 53 0 61/ 41 0 55/ 41 0.06 77/ 47 0 78/ 52 0 68/ 61 0.13 75/ 56 0 73/ 59 0 71/ 44 0 76/ 58 0 64/ 37 0 85/ 68 0 68/ 46 0 76/ 61 0.29 70/ 57 0 79/ 56 0 55/ 47 0 66/ 42 0 86/ 72 0 86/ 67 0 75/ 58 0.11 83/ 53 0 79/ 58 0 82/ 64 0 86/ 78 0 79/ 59 0 74/ 56 0.04

S ............................. Sun Sn ....................... Snow SS ......... Snow showers T .......... Thunderstorms Tr ........................ Trace W ....................... Windy .............. Not available
Today 65/ 57 PC 65/ 56 PC 68/ 51 C 65/ 50 C 66/ 55 PC 69/ 58 C 67/ 56 PC 66/ 54 PC Today 62/ 51 PC 76/ 48 S 32/ 19 S 77/ 54 S 71/ 58 PC 87/ 64 PC 76/ 55 S 85/ 64 S 80/ 54 S 52/ 33 C 64/ 50 PC 64/ 57 Sh 56/ 40 PC 55/ 31 W 78/ 49 S 79/ 50 S 75/ 63 T 78/ 54 PC 71/ 57 T 74/ 42 PC 76/ 58 PC 62/ 37 PC 84/ 67 PC 76/ 42 PC 79/ 64 F 71/ 57 T 85/ 57 S 63/ 45 C 66/ 50 PC 85/ 71 S 85/ 70 PC 76/ 57 T 82/ 57 S 82/ 62 S 80/ 63 PC 85/ 78 PC 72/ 55 PC 78/ 54 PC Tomorrow 69/ 57 C 66/ 53 C 71/ 54 C 67/ 50 C 66/ 53 C 72/ 58 C 72/ 55 PC 67/ 54 C Tomorrow 62/ 48 C 76/ 45 S 35/ 19 S 80/ 60 S 72/ 57 PC 87/ 65 PC 80/ 54 PC 85/ 65 S 80/ 60 S 51/ 32 Sh 57/ 45 C 67/ 55 Sh 54/ 38 C 43/ 19 C 80/ 50 S 79/ 52 S 77/ 61 PC 78/ 55 S 74/ 56 PC 68/ 26 PC 78/ 57 PC 57/ 35 C 86/ 68 PC 61/ 29 PC 80/ 48 PC 75/ 57 PC 85/ 59 S 51/ 31 R 63/ 47 C 84/ 71 S 86/ 70 PC 78/ 57 S 84/ 61 S 83/ 66 PC 83/ 53 PC 85/ 79 PC 70/ 49 PC 78/ 55 S

Little Rock Los Angeles Louisville Memphis Miami Milwaukee Mpls.-St. Paul Nashville New Orleans Norfolk Oklahoma City Omaha Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Pittsburgh Portland, Me. Portland, Ore. Providence Raleigh Reno Richmond Rochester Sacramento Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego San Francisco San Jose San Juan Seattle Sioux Falls Spokane St. Louis St. Thomas Syracuse Tampa Toledo Tucson Tulsa Virginia Beach Washington Wichita Wilmington, Del. Africa Algiers Cairo Cape Town Dakar Johannesburg Nairobi Tunis Asia/Pacific Baghdad Bangkok Beijing Damascus Hong Kong Jakarta Jerusalem Karachi Manila Mumbai

82/ 70/ 78/ 82/ 85/ 61/ 64/ 81/ 82/ 67/ 77/ 70/ 85/ 69/ 86/ 70/ 63/ 50/ 65/ 74/ 55/ 72/ 65/ 63/ 75/ 87/ 70/ 63/ 61/ 90/ 52/ 61/ 46/ 74/ 86/ 65/ 85/ 73/ 82/ 80/ 71/ 73/ 75/ 68/

58 59 59 60 76 59 58 53 67 51 66 55 67 52 66 55 39 40 44 47 38 48 50 50 47 71 60 54 52 78 41 50 34 63 76 45 67 58 56 67 53 53 64 49

0 0 0 0 0 0.17 0 0 0 0 0.02 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0.28 0 0 0.06 0 0 0.67 0 0 0 0.27 0.11 0.17 0.03 0 0.01 0.08 0.03 0 0 0 0 Tr 0 0 0 0

4 p.m.

12 a.m.

6 a.m.

12 4 p.m. p.m.

Trends

Avg. daily departure from normal this month ............. +0.3

Avg. daily departure from normal this year ................ +2.8

Temperature Average Below Above

Precipitation Average Below Above

Last

Reservoir levels (New York City water supply)

Yesterday ............... 76% Est. normal ............. 71%

10 days 30 days 90 days 365 days

Yesterday 68/ 54 0 68/ 63 0.07 57/ 54 Tr 73/ 52 0 70/ 39 0 54/ 50 0.16 57/ 43 Tr 48/ 33 0.02 63/ 46 0 70/ 50 0 43/ 34 0 75/ 66 0 64/ 39 Tr 73/ 64 0.02 59/ 54 0.01 66/ 47 0 50/ 32 0.10 73/ 66 0.10 38/ 36 Tr 75/ 55 0 50/ 42 Tr 75/ 60 0 42/ 36 0 46/ 36 0 61/ 45 0 52/ 45 Tr Yesterday 89/ 76 0.01 78/ 73 0.01 30/ 7 0 85/ 54 0 86/ 74 0 90/ 79 0.21 90/ 73 0 77/ 51 0 85/ 70 0 59/ 45 0 82/ 79 0.02 86/ 75 0.04 55/ 46 Tr 90/ 73 0 66/ 43 0 48/ 36 0 45/ 25 0 Yesterday 64/ 59 0.72 89/ 78 0.10 69/ 60 0 70/ 43 0 83/ 75 0 87/ 72 0 66/ 45 0.14

Today 65/ 52 S 72/ 64 Sh 62/ 47 C 65/ 52 S 65/ 43 S 52/ 42 C 57/ 50 PC 54/ 47 PC 64/ 46 PC 64/ 48 S 43/ 32 C 72/ 62 Sh 51/ 42 C 72/ 64 PC 63/ 50 PC 71/ 52 PC 45/ 30 PC 73/ 60 PC 45/ 32 PC 65/ 48 S 62/ 41 PC 73/ 57 PC 39/ 29 C 46/ 34 C 63/ 46 S 52/ 34 C Today 90/ 76 T 78/ 72 PC 31/ 21 C 87/ 53 T 84/ 72 T 82/ 78 R 88/ 75 Sh 79/ 48 T 91/ 69 S 52/ 37 PC 84/ 78 T 87/ 75 T 46/ 28 S 84/ 72 T 60/ 51 Sh 51/ 39 Sh 51/ 32 R Today 67/ 52 PC 91/ 78 T 68/ 59 PC 63/ 51 R 85/ 76 PC 95/ 79 PC 69/ 47 S

Tomorrow 56/ 42 C 74/ 63 Sh 55/ 42 C 60/ 46 PC 60/ 43 S 51/ 46 Sh 57/ 46 PC 54/ 37 PC 62/ 44 PC 69/ 45 S 45/ 30 R 69/ 59 PC 48/ 33 C 72/ 63 R 59/ 51 PC 72/ 52 PC 39/ 25 C 73/ 58 PC 46/ 31 C 65/ 50 S 53/ 43 C 73/ 55 Sh 45/ 33 R 45/ 32 PC 59/ 44 C 47/ 34 C Tomorrow 91/ 76 T 79/ 72 PC 33/ 23 C 88/ 55 T 84/ 71 Sh 85/ 78 T 89/ 75 C 77/ 45 PC 88/ 66 S 48/ 41 C 84/ 79 Sh 85/ 74 Sh 46/ 35 PC 81/ 75 R 59/ 55 Sh 51/ 37 C 46/ 32 C Tomorrow 74/ 53 PC 93/ 78 T 68/ 60 Sh 62/ 46 T 85/ 76 Sh 86/ 70 R 72/ 48 S

Chart shows how recent temperature and precipitation trends compare with those of the last 30 years.

Recreational Forecast
Sun, Moon and Planets
Full Last Quarter New First Quarter Past peak Peak Oct. 29 3:49 p.m. Sun
RISE SET NEXT R S R R S

Northeast Foliage

Nov. 6 7:16 a.m. 6:03 p.m. 7:18 a.m. 11:10 a.m. 8:21 p.m. 7:22 a.m. 6:17 p.m.

Nov. 13 5:07 p.m. Moon

S R S R S R S

Nov. 20 1:03 a.m. 2:46 p.m. 2:08 a.m. 10:50 a.m. 8:03 p.m. 4:11 a.m. 4:42 p.m.

Near peak Some color Still green Burlington Portland Boston Albany

Jupiter Saturn

Mars Venus

Boating
From Montauk Point to Sandy Hook, N.J., out to 20 nautical miles, including Long Island Sound and New York Harbor. Wind will be light and variable, then south to southwest at 5-10 knots. Waves will be 1-2 feet on the ocean and 1 foot or less on Long Island Sound and New York Harbor. Visibility around 5 miles. New York Pittsburgh Philadelphia

Washington Charleston Norfolk

Yesterday 75/ 50 0 86/ 69 0 68/ 59 0 88/ 76 0 75/ 55 0 79/ 61 0 82/ 70 0.11 Yesterday 81/ 67 0.12 95/ 81 0 67/ 43 0 77/ 57 0 86/ 73 0 93/ 77 0.03 75/ 62 0 97/ 73 0 93/ 79 0 91/ 83 0.02

Today 74/ 57 PC 84/ 68 PC 77/ 57 S 88/ 78 T 73/ 53 T 81/ 61 T 75/ 62 Sh Today 87/ 68 S 92/ 78 C 70/ 42 S 81/ 53 PC 84/ 75 S 93/ 76 PC 75/ 61 PC 94/ 67 S 90/ 77 S 94/ 79 T

Tomorrow 75/ 57 S 83/ 67 PC 84/ 59 PC 90/ 77 C 64/ 50 T 83/ 61 T 75/ 61 Sh Tomorrow 90/ 72 S 89/ 77 R 71/ 47 S 81/ 55 PC 82/ 75 S 92/ 75 PC 76/ 59 PC 93/ 68 S 87/ 78 PC 94/ 76 PC

High Tides
Atlantic City ................... 2:56 a.m. .............. Barnegat Inlet ................ 2:52 a.m. .............. The Battery .................... 3:39 a.m. .............. Beach Haven ................. 4:22 a.m. .............. Bridgeport ..................... 6:36 a.m. .............. City Island ...................... 7:15 a.m. .............. Fire Island Lt. ................. 3:50 a.m. .............. Montauk Point ................ 4:12 a.m. .............. Northport ....................... 6:31 a.m. .............. Port Washington ............ 7:01 a.m. .............. Sandy Hook ................... 3:04 a.m. .............. Shinnecock Inlet ............ 2:25 a.m. .............. Stamford ........................ 6:39 a.m. .............. Tarrytown ....................... 5:28 a.m. .............. Willets Point ................... 7:12 a.m. .............. 3:17 p.m. 3:13 p.m. 3:59 p.m. 4:43 p.m. 7:03 p.m. 7:41 p.m. 4:11 p.m. 4:41 p.m. 6:58 p.m. 7:27 p.m. 3:25 p.m. 2:46 p.m. 7:06 p.m. 5:48 p.m. 7:38 p.m.

Rain will spread from northern Ohio and Pennsylvania across much of New York to southwest New England during the course of the day. Sunshine will prevail farther north in New England. There will also be a good deal of sunshine for areas south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where it will also be unseasonably warm.