The 2011 Draconid shower risk to Earth-orbiting satellites

William J. Cooke 1 and Danielle E. Moser 2 1 Meteoroid Environment Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 2 Stanley, Inc., Huntsville, AL 35812 william.j.cooke@nasa.gov Current meteor shower forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst, possibly a storm, on October 8, 2011, with a duration of approximately 7 hours and peaking between 19 and 21 hours UT. Predicted rates span an order of magnitude, with maximum ZHRs ranging from a few tens to several hundred. Calibration of the NASA MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model 1 to radar and optical observations of past apparitions, particularly the 2005 Draconid outburst 2 , suggest that the maximum rate will be several hundreds per hour. Given the high spatial density of the Draconid stream, this implies a maximum meteoroid flux of 5-10 Draconids km -2 hr-1 (to a limiting diameter of 1 mm), some 25-50 times greater than the normal sporadic flux of 0.2 k m-2 hr-1 for particles of this size. Total outburst fluence, assuming a maximum ZHR of 750, is 15.5 Draconids km-2 , resulting in an overall 10x risk increase to spacecraft surfaces vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts by 1 mm particles. It is now established that a significant fraction of spacec anomalies produced by raft shower meteoroids (e.g. OLYMPUS and LandSat 5 3 ) are caused by electrostatic discharges produced by meteoroid impacts. In these cases, the charge generated is roughly proportional to v3.5(4), giving a Draconid moving at 20 km s1 approximately 1/80 th the electrical damage potential of a Leonid of the same mass. In other words, a Draconid outburst with a maximum ZHR of 800 presents the same electrical risk as a normal Leonid shower with a ZHR of 15, assuming the mass indices and shower durations are the same. This is supported by the fact that no spacecraft electrical anomalies were reported during the strong Draconid outbursts of 1985 and 1998. However, the lack of past anomalies should not be taken as carte blanche for satellite operators to ignore the 2011 Draconids, as the upcoming outburst will constitute a period of enhanced risk for vehicles in near-Earth space. Each spacecraft is unique, and components have differing damage thresholds; programs are encouraged to conduct analyses to determine whether or not mitigation strategies are necessary for their vehicles.

1 D. E. Moser and W. J. Cooke, Earth Moon Planet., 102, 285 (2008). 2 M. Campbell-Brown et al., Astron. Astrophys., 451, 339 (2006). 3 S. Close, personal communication (2009). 4 R. D. Caswell et al., Int. J. Impact Eng., 17, 139 (1995).

The 2011 Draconid shower risk to Earth-orbiting satellites

William Cooke, NASA Meteoroid Environment Office Danielle Moser, MITS

Visual forecast summary

I I

Peak UT Oct 8 19:52 Oct 8 19:56 Oct 8 20:42

Max ZH R ~750 <200 40-50

NASA/MSFC Vaubaillon/Sato/Watanabe Maslov

Draconid outbursts are not noted for bright

meteors

Moon will strongly interfere (waxing gibbous,

90% illumination)

MSFC Model 0.30

2011 Draconids
Earth

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Meteoroid-induced spacecraft anomalies generally

fall into two categories: - Attitude displacements (e.g. Chandra, 2003)
- Electrical/component failures (e.g. OLYMPUS, 1993)

Electrical failures occur during meteor showers

with fast meteoroids (Perseids, Leonids)

Potential current produced by a meteoroid strike

on a charged surface: I = k m 1.02 v4.48 L - 1

ESA video generated to explain OLYMPUS anomaly

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Draconid Electrical Risk

Draconid speed is ~20 km s Perseids is 59 km s -1

1;

that for

Electrical risk for Draconids is therefore

(20/59) 4.48 or 1/ 127 that of a Perseid

Explains why we do not have any known

Draconid electrical anomalies, even during 1998 and 2005 outbursts

2011 Draconids from ISS

Radiant only 20 from orbit pole Draconid radiant always visible from ISS in 2011 ISS motion causes significant aberration in radiant direction ISS heavily armored

Summary

Bright Moon + small meteoroids + downward trend in forecast zhr indicate 2011 Draconids may not be visually impressive. Radiant circumpolar from CMOR radar. Flux levels in Earth orbit should be comparable to recent Leonid storms; however, chance of electrical anomalies lower due to Draconid slow speed Forecast will be released to spacecraft operators in early 201 1. Will encompass range of existing predictions and will be updated as needed specific spacecraft risks

Already working with NASA programs to assess