CSP 301 Assignment 2

Ishaan Preet Singh 2011CS50280

Madhur Gupta Sumegha Garg Surbhi Goel 2011CS50282 2011CS10256 2011CS10257

Contents
1 Introduction 2 Trends in Parliament 2.1 Political Alliances . . . . . . . 2.2 Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Education . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Attendance and Participation 2.6 States . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6.1 Development in States 2.6.2 Size of States . . . . . 2.7 Ministers . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 Comparisons and Contrasts . 2.8.1 The Houses . . . . . . 2.8.2 Over the Years . . . . 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7

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Introduction

We were provided with Lok Sabha tracking data 1 and were supposed to visualize and analyze interesting trends and peculiarities in the data. Most of our visualization has been done using D32 while we tried to analyze many of the related statistics and check some expected hypotheses.

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2.1

Trends in Parliament
Political Alliances

The major parties in the parliament are the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) together account for 62% of the parliament, with 207 and 117 MPs respectively. The next largest party, the Samajwadi Party, holds less than 4% of the strength of parliament, showing the predominantly 2 party system in our country. A legislators political aliation is expected to have a signicant inuence on their behaviour in Parliament and we test this basic idea in this section. Hypothesis Parties in the ruling alliance have higher attendance Opposition parties ask more questions Opposition members participate more in debates UPA focuses more on the youth Mainly opposition party members table private bills Education has a correlation with UPA, NDA, Left Result False False/opposite False/opposite False False/opposite False

Table 1: Hypotheses for the inuence of alliances

While the t-tests for most hypotheses in this case dont give us any useful conclusions, even the means of most data come out neck and neck regardless of the alliance to which members belong. In fact, questions, debates and private bills have means that have a relation opposite to what was expected in our hypotheses. While on average ruling parties ask more questions and debate more, the dierence is purely statistical. But this does mean opposition parties dont take up the opportunity to hackle the government and dont really test it. The NDA has slightly higher attendance while all parties have nearly the same educational level.Truly, we have a multi-party democracy in which we have options on paper but no true dierences between parties as to the interest they take in participation in Parliament.

2.2

Gender

Firstly, the gender ratio in the Parliament is extremely skewed with approximately 1 female for every 8 males. This does show how we have failed to empower women in our society. On the other hand the few women who do manage to become leaders are expected to have worked harder and faced more challenges than men whove done the same. This also means that we could hope that they maintain a higher standard as a legislature in Parliament. Also while women in general have lower education and literacy rates, these exceptional women can be expected to be more educated3 The oppression against women comes into play in the Lok Sabha too. Women are either not given enough of a say or dont take the initiative since they ask lesser questions while on average attend Parliament lesser too. Also, the small number of women in politics arent experienced established politicians but have come up recently and are therefore younger by margin of 7 years on average. Hence, were giving younger women
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from PRS India a popular free Javascript library 3 An MPs education was assigned a weight approximately equal to the number of years of study
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Hypothesis Women are better educated Women have higher attendance Women ask less questions Women participate more in debates Women MPs are usually younger Women are mainly from states with greater HDI

t-value 0.6 0.43 1.81 -1.36 4.93 0.352

Result Only on average Only on average Passed t-test Opposite is true with 82% condence Passed t-test Only on average

Table 2: Eect of gender divisions

a chance but they arent taking advantage of it as they should. Also, states with greater HDI do seem very slightly inclined towards electing women.

2.3

Age

Politics in India has always been dominated by older politicians. The median age in the 15th Lok Sabha is 57 years, which is just a year away from the typical retirement age. However, the younger4 members of Parliament are expected to be more enthusiastic and active and at the same time more educated. However, nowadays a number of parties have started focussing on the youth of our society5 especially party members below the age of 40. Hypothesis Younger MPs are better educated Younger MPs ask more questions Younger MPs participate more in debates Younger MPs attend Parliament more Youth MPs ask more questions Youth MPs participate more in debates Youth MPs table fewer private member bills Youth MPs are more educated t-value 0.47 1.84 -1.83 -2.83 -1.25 -3.02 1.98 0.4 Result False Passed t-test Opposite passed t-test Opposite passed t-test Opposite has about 80% condence level Opposite passed t-test Passed t-test False

Table 3: Youth doesnt live up to expectations

Other than in number of questions asked, the performance of younger MPs and especially of youth MPs is far below what was hoped for and expected from the future of the nation. They have nearly the same level of education as the previous generation of politicians. Also, they dont participate in debates enthusiastically nor do they attend parliament regularly. Younger politicians dont even take initiatives by tabling their own bills. This may be attributed to them struggling to establish themselves and spending greater time in their constituencies and also obeying party leaders to gain their favour. This analysis is truly sad for Indian politics and we hope that this changes soon.

2.4

Education

Education is sadly not something we associate with our politicians. Yet, the median years of education years of education comes out to be 16 meaning half of our MPs are at least graduates. Education brings with it another set of expectations, mostly towards more logical and rational debating and doubts.6
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Younger means lesser than the median age for our hypotheses Youth MPs are taken as MPs younger than 40 6 Weve taken the median age as the bar for dening more educated MPs, including those who have 16 years of education
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Hypothesis More educated MPs have higher attendance More educated MPs ask more questions More educated MPs participate more in debates

t-value 1.09 -0.409 2.9

Result Only on average False Passed t-test

Table 4: The eect of education on participation

Education has a large bearing on proper democratic debate and discussion with more educated MPs participating in 30% more debates. However, maybe because of over-condence or arrogance they ask slightly lesser questions. Attendance by educated MPs is only marginally greater. However, the overall level of educational qualications for MPs must be improved as this would lead to more discussion and hence better laws.

2.5

Attendance and Participation

Do our politicians just sit quietly in Parliament, particularly if they attend a majority of the sessions or do they participate actively? Weve tried to answer this in this section. Also, participation in debates and questions would be expected to be along the same lines. Hypothesis MPs with higher attendance participate in more debates MPs with higher attendance ask more questions MPs with greater number of debates ask more questions t-value 7.53 0.316 7.25 Result Passed t-test False Passed t-test

Table 5: Relation between attendance and participation An encouraging fact is that MPs that have higher attendance actually do participate in more debates. However, they actually ask slightly fewer questions which is unexpected. Also, the MPs that debate more are more involved in the process of legislation and also ask more questions. This means the truly interested legislators actually attend Parliament. Hence, along with education we should also focus on trying to improve the attendance of MPs in Parliament. We can also draw some conclusions from the related histograms. A large proportion of MPs lie in the very low number debates and questions bins and this number falls rapidly as the debates and questions increase. But the maximum in both is very high. Hence, a small proportion of MPs take very active part in the Parliament.

2.6

States

An MP often ends inheriting many characteristics because of various parameters associated with the states they come from. MPs from economically backward states7 may be expected to have a greater incentive to attend and participate in parliament. On the other hand, they may be expected to have lesser education qualications. Also, MPs from smaller states may be expected to give a greater importance to their voice in the parliament and hence participate more. The colour-coded map in our visualization shows the start contrast between many states and some interesting observations, such as the low level of Education in Kerala and the high proportion of female MPs from Punjab (both contradicting trends present in the public in the states). 2.6.1 Development in States

MPs from backward states do seem more involved although not to a very large extent. They are also better educated, albeit barely, than their counterparts from states with higher Human Development Indices. This might show the importance given to education by voters relatively bereft of education.
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Backward has been dened on the basis of the UN Human Development Index

Hypothesis MPs from backward MPs from backward MPs from backward MPs from backward

states states states states

have higher attendance ask more questions participate more in debates are less educated

t-value 1.33 0.69 0.18 -0.315

Result True with 83% condence Only on average Only on average False

Table 6: Comparing MPs from states with dierent HDIs

2.6.2

Size of States Hypothesis MPs from smaller states have higher attendance MPs from smaller states ask more questions MPs from smaller states participate more in debates t-value 1.011 0.043 -0.85 Result Only on average Nearly the same False

Table 7: Eect of size on a legislators enthusiasm

MPs characteristics dont really vary depending not the size of the states they come from, other than very slightly higher attendance. In fact development turns out to be a larger factor.

2.7

Ministers

Minsters are often more experienced and more respected politicians. This would logically mean theyre more educated and older. Hypothesis Ministers are older Ministers are more educated t-value 1.85 0.04 Result Passed t-test false

Table 8: Dierences between the Cabinet and the Parliament Education doesnt play a major role in becoming a cabinet minister but age does. This shows how political leaders actually need to understand the publics problems and dont need technical qualications to be successful. However, experience does matter and the average age of a minister is around 5% greater.

2.8

Comparisons and Contrasts

In this section well primarily analyze the dierence in trends between the 15th Lok Sabha and the 14th Lok Sabha. Well also check whether Rajya Sabha MPs have dierent characteristics. India is a developing democracy and as we progress, it can be expected that the institutions are made stronger and participation in parliament increases. Also, Rajya Sabha MPs are elected indirectly, usually making them more experienced. 2.8.1 The Houses

The Rajya Sabha is truly the House of the Lords, with older and more leisurely members. This could be due to indirect elections forcing more experienced members into the fray, less inuence on policies and almost a retirement home for politicians. Surprisingly Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs have similar attendance levels but Lok Sabha MPs are much more involved in debates with more questions too.

Hypothesis Rajya Sabha MPs are older Lok Sabha MPs have higher attendance Lok Sabha MPs participate in debates more Lok Sabha MPs ask more questions

t-value 8.419 0.033 4.257 5.18

Result Passed t-test False Passed t-test Passed t-test

Table 9: Comparison between the Houses of Parliament

2.8.2

Over the Years Hypothesis Attendance has increased Questions have increased Debates have increased t-value 6.95 2.14 -1.35 Result Passed t-test Passed t-test Opposite is true with 82% condence

Table 10: Changes from the 14th to 15th Lok Sabha

Passing years have both good and bad news with respect to the quality of debate and discussion in the Lok Sabha. While attendance and number of questions have increased signicantly, the average participation in debates has actually decreased slightly by about 10%. We should be aware about such trends and make them factors in how we vote. The more MPs attend parliament and the more they question and debate, the more streamlined and benecial our laws will become.