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AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2012

Inside This Issue

Annie Williams
Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123 Fax: (415) 202-1686 Cell: (415) 819-2663 AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com http://www.anniewilliamshomes.com DRE #01393923

> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4

The Real Estate Report local market trends


Trends at a Glance

SAN FRANCISCO

(Single-family Homes) Jul 12 Jun 12 Home Sales: 204 248

Jul 11 191

Median Price: $ 800,750

$ 800,000 $ 750,000 103.8% 57 Jun 12 312 838,697 101.2% 56 98.8% 59 Jul 11 220 693,719 98.5% 77

As the Market Turns


It's an interesting phenomenon in the real estate market that when the market turns, it takes awhile for people to catch up. In San Francisco, the market has definitely turned in favor of sellers. In the current change from a buyers market to a sellers market, we are seeing a great deal of angst, particularly among buyers. They feel like the market is getting away from them: rising prices and inventory, while increasing, is still on the low side. This pushed up the sales price to list price ratio in San Francisco to over 100% since March. It backed off a little in July: 99.4%. These conditions will resolve themselves, in time. But, it is going to take time for the market to settle down. market by turning underwater homeowners into potential sellers. More inventory will alleviate the pricing pressure we are under now.

Av erage Price: 1,214,707 1,174,385 1,047,571 Sale/List Price Ratio: Day s on Market: 100.2% 47 Jul 12 264 781,287 101.1% 59

(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) Condo Sales: Av erage Price: Sale/List Price Ratio: Day s on Market:

JULY MARKET STATISTICS


Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 6.8% year-over-year. Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory. As of today, there are only 234 homes for sale in the city. That's down from 379 in June! Thats just over one month of supply. There are 337 condos/lofts for sale, about one and half months supply.

Median Price: $ 692,500

$ 730,000 $ 627,150

PRICING MOMENTUM
continued moving upward in July, gaining 0.9 of a point to 2 for homes. The number for condos rose 1.1 points to finish in the black for only the third time since December 2008: +1.2.

The beneficiary of low inventory has been prices. The median price for homes rose 6.8% year-overyear. The median price has been higher that the In the meantime, a bright note is the surge in prices year before for six out of the last seven months. since the beginning of the year. We calculate the SALES MOMENTUM median price for single-family homes is up 25% for homes rose 0.8 of a point to +11.2. For condos, since January. sales momentum rose one point to +10.5. Rising prices, while not something buyers want to see, will go a long way towards stabilizing the
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

WE CALCULATE
momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this years 12-month moving average to last years, we get a percentage showing market momentum.

CONDO STATISTICS
The median price for condos gained 10.4% yearover-year. Sales were up 22% from last July. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. Its important to be calm and realistic. If you dont know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and lets discuss your situation and your options.

0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J -10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2 -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

2012 rereport.com

Annie Williams | AnnieWilliamsSF@gmail.com | Fax: (415) 202-1686

The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook


30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
07-12 04-12 01-12 10-11 07-11 04-11 01-11 10-10 07-10 04-10 01-10 10-09 07-09 04-09 01-09 10-08 07-08 04-08 01-08 10-07 07-07 04-07 01-07 10-06 07-06 04-06 01-06 3.0%

Aug 3, 2012 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage track-

er -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that the overall average rate for 30year fixed-rate mortgages rose by a lone basis point (.01%) to 3.86%. The FRMI's 15-year companion also rose by a single basis point, landing at 3.16%, two ticks above a record low. Important to homebuyers and low-equity-stake refinancers, already-low FHA-backed 30-year mortgages rose by two basis points to 3.42%, the series' first bump in six weeks, while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid ARMs finished the weekly survey at 2.80%, holding at a record low for the most popular kind of ARM. Spending on new construction projects rose by 0.4% in June, a decline from May's 1.6% rise but still a positive. Spending for public projects was unchanged, as cash-strapped governments have no funds to power projects. Commercial construction projects rose a scant 0.1% for the month, so all the gains actually came from outlays for residential projects, which gained 1.3% for the month. That was a smaller increase than the 3.1% seen in May, but the last three months have been fairly strong for homebuilding relative to what was seen over the last couple of years.

Overall, the economy is tepid at best, but the latest data suggest that there is no continuing free fall after a Euro-led downturn in the second quarter. Things are tentative and shaky, no doubt, but things could be worse. The Federal Reserve is right in holding off from taking new measures unless things do become more dire, since the boost from previous policy action has been limited at best, and there is no indication that even lower interest rates will be the right tonic for what ails us. Should the economy worsen, the Fed will of course take steps to try to get it going again, but their options are limited. It should be noted that a 1.5% growth rate isn't much, but it's not a recession or even an emergency, either, and compares favorably with many other economies. With the news of the defense of the Euro and the mild improvement in the US economy, the frazzled nerves of investors have been soothed somewhat. As a result, at least some money has been pulled out of safe-haven investments like US Treasuries, and yields have risen a little bit. There's no reason to expect that rates will continue to climb at this point as there's little to support any sustained move upward. With a lighter calendar of economic news out next week, we could see a slight uptick again as we bounce around the bottom.

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales

The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo.

(3-month moving average $000's) $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

2012 rereport.com

July Sales Statistics


(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Change from last year Median Average 6.8% 16.0% 3.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.8% 23.5% 90.6% 56.6% -20.3% 8.5% 6.3% 16.7% -3.4% -5.5% -14.7% 28.6% 174.0% 97.6% -44.1% 10.4% -2.2% Sales 6.8% 20.0% 7.7% -15.0% -12.5% 32.1% 200.0% -11.1% -60.0% 15.0% 9.3% Change from last m onth Median Average 0.1% 3.4% 59.2% -4.0% -15.3% 2.3% 24.5% -7.0% 47.7% -65.1% 6.6% 6.9% -1.4% 1.6% -20.0% -8.5% 31.0% 29.6% 89.2% -53.2% 4.4% -1.6% Sales -17.7% -21.7% -17.6% -29.2% -48.8% 5.7% -40.0% -57.9% -33.3% 9.5% 17.5% Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP San Francisco $ 800,750 $1,214,707 204 47 100.2% D1: Northw est $1,242,050 D2: Central West $ 717,500 D3: Southw est $ 506,000 D4: Tw in Peaks $ 875,000 D5: Central $1,575,000 D6: Central North $1,325,000 D7: North $3,875,000 D8: Northeast $1,725,000 D9: Central East $ 890,000 $1,522,283 $ 769,914 $ 551,318 $ 965,571 $1,727,124 $1,904,611 $6,651,031 $1,725,000 $ 944,870 $ 450,735 18 28 17 21 37 3 8 2 23 47 40 103.1% 30 106.3% 65 105.0% 30 105.3% 40 103.0% 38 112.2% 98 86.6% 45 101.5% 49 108.6% 55 105.2%

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D10: Southeast $ 505,000

San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change


30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J 8 9 0 1 2 -10.0% 7 -20.0% -30.0%

2011 rereport.com

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
In San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, dropped in June from the year before by 44.6%. They were down 12.6% from May. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, were down 41.3% from May, and down 57.2% year-over-year. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average $000's) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2
Med Units

investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO inventory. In May, cancellations were off 21.7% from May. Yearover-year, cancellations were down 27.6%. Properties going back-to-bank fell 9.1% from May, and were down 60% year-over-year. The total number of homes that have had a notice of default filed decreased by 26.9% compared to last year. The total number of homes scheduled for sale decreased by 21.4% year-over-year.
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350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Table Definitions _______________ Median Price


The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower.

Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the number of sales.

Ave

2012 rereport.com

SP/LP
July Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth
Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price.

Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP San Francisco $ 692,500 $ 781,287 264 59 101.1%
D1: Northw est $ 799,500 D2: Central West $ 751,500 D3: Southw est $ D4: Tw in Peaks $ 459,000 D5: Central $ 875,000 D6: Central North $ 690,500 D7: North $ 880,000 D8: Northeast $ 759,750 D9: Central East $ 650,000 D10: Southeast $ 280,000 $ 813,071 $ 739,500 $ $ 530,200 $ 856,833 $ 696,288 $ 924,453 $ 917,489 $ 703,933 $ 323,333 14 6 0 5 33 26 31 44 101 3 45 104.0% 60 100.8% 0 0.0% 82 100.6% 46 102.6% 50 100.7% 74 102.3% 67 98.2% 60 101.3% 34 104.5%

Median Average 10.4% 12.6%


25.7% -15.4% n/a 31.1% 22.9% 0.1% 20.2% 38.9% 12.7% -11.9% 15.9% -16.8% n/a 36.2% 10.8% -4.7% -0.1% 32.4% 15.6% -0.4%

Sales 20.0%
16.7% 200.0% n/a 66.7% -5.7% 23.8% 47.6% -10.2% 40.3% 0.0%

Median Average -5.1% -6.8%


0.9% 1.6% n/a -8.1% 19.0% 9.2% -20.0% -3.5% -8.3% -17.0% 3.2% 1.4% n/a 3.3% 8.7% 2.5% -29.2% 0.7% -13.3% 6.0%

Sales -15.4%
-33.3% -14.3% n/a -16.7% -32.7% -18.8% -16.2% -17.0% 7.4% -50.0%

DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales.

Pend
Property under contract to sell that hasnt closed escrow.

Inven
Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month.

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT


San Francisco

Annie Williams
Hill & Company 1880 Lombard Street San Francisco 94123

Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown:

HTTP://WWW.ANNIEWILLIAMSHOMES.COM

(Continued from page 3)

San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum


25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 2012 rereport.com Sales Pricing

The number of homes owned by the bank fell 13.2% year-over-year. Banks now own about 579 properties in San Francisco. At the current rate of sales, this is about a five weeks supply. Five to six months supply is normal. Data supplied by http://foreclosureradar.com.

San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum


40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 Sales Pricing 2012 rereport.com 0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ J 7 8 9 0 1 2

The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.