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Outline
Introduction Current state of forests and forestry Factors that influence the future state of
2020
Recommended strategic actions and policies
Introduction:
Methodology
Determining involved forestry experts, and collecting and
a base analysis that picture the current state of Indonesia forests and forestry
Conducting two focus group discussions to get important feed
backs and to identify factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry as well as to develop probable scenarios and their implication
Writing a draft report that pictures the future state of Indonesia
forests and forestry in 2020, and contain recommended strategic actions and policies that need to be followed up
Conducting two a one-day workshops that discusses the draft
Key issues
Conservation Forest 11% Conversion Production Forest 12% Limited Production Forest 14%
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Jawa Maluku
Islands
Million ha
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
8.0
44.2
2.2
10.7
11.1
1.0
20.6
12.6
2.0
18.2
5.8
1.7
22.1
5.6
2.3
Conservation Forest
0.0
14.4
4.0 1.5
10.0
20.0
30.0 Million ha
40.0
50.0
60.0
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Conversion Production Forest Permanent Production Forest Limited Production Forest Protection Forest Conservation Forest
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Papua Kalimantan Sumatera Sulawesi Maluku Jawa Bali & Nusa Tenggara
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Forest Function
Forest Condition Primary forest Secondary forest Plantation Forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest
Production Forest
Protection Forest
INDONESIA
A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Plantation 4%
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
Million ha
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005
60.00
600
50.00
500
Million ha
40.00
400
30.00
300
20.00
200
10.00
100
0.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0 Year
Unit
Distribution of Forest Concessionaires in Natural Production Forest as of August 2007, by company type
100% 90%
87 6.6 8 0.8
80% 70%
1.0 13
Joint-Venture State-Shared Equity State-Owned Private
Percentage
20.4
Year
Annual-Pulpwood Cumulative-Pulpwood Annual-Construction wood Cumulative-Construction wood
200
1,600
Mean annual increment at an operationas scale (m3/ha/year) 12 - 23 46 - 50 27.7 - 24.9 37.4 20 - 24 17.0 - 18.5 15 10 - 20 23.7 24.5 - 34 35 13 - 34 14 - 19 19.9 - 22.4 24 15 - 20 25
in ton/ha/year
Source: Manual Kehutanan (MOF, 1992)
Certified Forest Management Units in Indonesia Under LEI Timber Certification Scheme as of September 2007
FMU
PT. Diamond Raya Timber PT. Intraca Wood Manufacturing
Issuance Year
2001 2001
Forest Type
Natural Forest Natural Forest
82,240
147,600 184,206 269,660.10 262.77 547.77 815.18 1,179.00 2,434.24 1,046,098.13
2001
2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2006 2007 2007 -
Natural Forest
Natural Forest Natural Forest Natural Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest -
Sumatera 14%
Jawa 50%
Community forest plantations are about 124.467 ha (Hutan Kemasyarakatan - public lands )
Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years
Deforestation
4.00 3.50 3.00
Hectare (millions)
2.83
2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1982-1990 1990-1997 1997-2000 2000-2005 0.90 1.08 1.80
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000*)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Natural Production Forest ( RKT ) Plantation (Perum Perhutani) Conversion Production Forest (IPK) Industrial Plantation Forest (HTI) Izin Sah Lainnya ( ISL )
Forest Area and log production over the period 19942006 by Major Island
100%
22%
80%
7% 3% 3%
5% 8%
60%
41%
40%
Papua 39% Maluku Sulawesi Kalimantan Bali dan Nusa Tenggara 0% 9% Jawa Sumatera
Share (%)
20%
2% 3% 20%
39%
Sources: Areas were calculated based on Rekalkulasi Penutupan Lahan Indonesia 2005, Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, 2005; Log production based on Indonesia Forestry Statistics, 1994-2006
Item
Pulp
13 6.45 5.67 2.80
Furniture (2005)
Mostly Home industry
Number of Company (Unit) Installed Capacity (mn M3 or mn Adt) Production (mn M3 or mn Adt) Export Quantity (mn M3 or mn ton) Export Value (US$bn) Export destinations
0.8
1.29
EU, USA, Japan, China
1.30
Japan, USA, UK
1.12
China, S.Korea, Italy, Japan
1.9
USA, Japan, Holland, France
Rapid growth and structural change in Indonesian wood industry during 1980-2006
25.0
20.0
Million M3 or Adt
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1980
1993
2006
Year
Sawnwood Plywood Veneer Block Board Wood Working Particle Board Chipwood Pulp
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)
Change in Indonesia wood industry structure as indicated by round wood equivalent (RWE) consumption
100%
80%
RWE Consumption
60%
40%
Pulp
20%
Year
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)
Year
Sawnwood Plywood+Veneer Pulp
Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)
Wood Charcoal Pulp and Paper Wood Based Panel Sawnwood Chips and Particles
1993 Year
2006
Wood Charcoal Pulp and Paper Wood Based Panel Sawnwood Chips and Particles
1993 Year
2006
Chips and Particles Sawnwood Wood Based Panel Pulp and Paper Wood Charcoal
Year
Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)
Biomass: 35%-37% of Final energy consumption Wood energy: 80% of Biomass energy consumption
Other 9%
Conservation Forest
Terresterial Conservation Area
Papua
Maluku
Sulaw esi
Kalimantan
Jaw a
Sumatera
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Million Ha
Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Nasional (National Park)
Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary) Taman Buru (Game Hunting Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)
Conservation Forest
Marine Conservation Area
Papua
Maluku
Sulaw esi
Kalimantan
Jaw a
Sumatera
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Million Ha
Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)
Thousand people
1,500
Taman Nasional (National Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)
1,000
500
Year
Thousand people
150
100
50
Year
Key issues
Illegal logging and trade
Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Distribution of population, forestry and poverty
Forest, Rural Pop'n, & Poverty Indicators
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1 Sumatera 2 Java 3 Kalimantan 4 Sulawesi 5 Bali & NTT 6 Maluku 7 Papua INDONESIA
% State Forest w/ Actual Cover % Rural Pop'n (% Pop'n Perdesaan) BPS 2003
Source: BPS (2003) and World Bank (2006)
% Prov Area w/ Actual Forest Cover (incl. private) % in Poverty (% Penduduk Miskin) BPS 2003
Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: The political and institutional environment
There have been important and growing changes in
private industry, NGOs and the media are working together against the entrenched special interests of the past, which continue to wield great influence.
New laws are being passed or considered on
transparency, conflict resolution, agrarian reform, natural resource management and civil service reform.
It is recognized that the forestry policy environment is
Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Economic changes
Gross Domestic Product: 3.3% - 4.3% (1993 -2005)
or 0.7% (1993-2005)
Direct Employment: 500 600 thousand employees
Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Environmental issues and policies
Encroachment and poaching due to weak law
uncertain or unpredictable variables in Indonesia: the governance and economic development factors
By doing this, policy measures can be developed that
land area involved (33.4 million ha), the rapid rate of change of land status from forested to non-forested, the relatively unmanaged status and the most obvious and logical places to begin to think about rationalizing the forest estate and allowing more equitable and pro-poor access and activities
Rehabilitation and plantation development are therefore
of central importance to the forestry sector in Indonesia given the reduction in supply from natural forests
Two major forestry policy objectives: forest rehabilitation
and plantation development were then considered within the two factors chosen: (a) effectiveness of policy implementation and institutions, and (b) economic growth rate
3. Low-growth development Forest rehabilitation still possible but only with policy measures based on allocation of land and rights rather than economic incentives. Effective policy implementation
FOREST AREA
WOOD PROCESSING
Data Sources Neraca Sumber Daya Hutan Statistik Kehutanan and BPS Respected published sources Value (monetized) measures Timber harvest & processing Environmental services lost Production on alt. land uses
INDICATORS
Physical measures Forest area & planting by forest type Timber harvest & volume of processed wood Gross Revenue, Tax Revenue, Profit Numbers of people employed
Forest resources:
The Current and Future State, by forest type and scenario
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Areas of Different Types of Forest
140.00 120.00 100.00
Million ha
80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 Forest in 2006 Primary Forest S1 Secondary Forest S2 Plantations S3 SILIN S4 Non-Forested
Forest resources:
Trend of total damaged forest areas during the period 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Damaged Forest Area
65 60
Millions of Hectares
S1 S2 S3 S4
Forest resources:
Trend of total primary forest areas during the period 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Primary Forest Area
45
Millions of Hectares
40
35
30
S1 S2 S3 S4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
25 2018 2020
Forest resources:
The forest resource under Sustainable development scenario (S4)
Convertible Production Forest
Primary forest
5.3 5.3 12.2
Conservation Forest
10.1
5.5
3.9
Protection Forest
13.3
10.5
5.6
Production Forest
8.5
31.0
10.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Million ha
100
S1 S2 S3 S4
Millions of M3
75
50
25
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
100
S1 S2 S3 S4
Millions of M3
75
50
25
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
plywood, block board, sawnwood, and pulp would be increased in the range of 10%-15%, 28%-34%, 17%23%, and 9%-10%, respectively; while, their annual export growths would be increased in range of 12%17%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 7%to- 8%, respectively.
Plywood, veneer, and block board industry would still
face a log deficit until the year of 2017, but, they could expand their capacities by 45% for plywood, veneer, and block board industry and by 32% for sawnwood industry, if timber production level in the year 2020 is achieved.
Pulp industry could expand its installed capacity since
the year of 2009 and it could be even tripled if timber production level in the year 2020 is achieved.
S1
S2
S3
Environmental Costs
S4
Change in Plantation Forest Stock (Value) Change in Natural Forest Stock (Value)
Change in natural forest stocks implies change in natural forest capacity to provide NWFP and forest services so the future of non-wood forest products and forest services were addressed through estimating changes in natural forest stock values Over the period 2006-2020, total changes in environmental costs and forest stock value ranges from US$3.91 billions to US$7.48 billions, respectively. Of which, +US$0.25 billions to +US$0.29 billions is due to changes in natural forest stock value given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020
1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 S1 Logging Ind. Blockboard ind. S2 Timber plant. Sawnwood ind. S3 Pulpwood plant. Pulp ind. S4 Plywood ind.
Given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020, there would be also direct employment generation in the range of 675-836 thousands even though there may be substantially larger numbers of people who are forest dependent and people who work in small-scale sawmills and other processed wood industries
and poverty alleviation options in degraded Production Forest, and promotion of environmental service delivery in degraded Protection Forest and Conservation Forest
Options for economic development and poverty alleviation: Promoting community-company partnerships to open new
kinds of benefit sharing for timber production to planting more trees for production/timber uses
Promoting Community forestry, social forestry, cooperatives
cross-learning
protection forest areas as candidate areas for reallocation into conservation areas, especially if they are part of critical wildlife corridors or within the range of endangered or endemic species
enforcement efforts
Prosecuting those behind major forest harvesting,
government to address concerns, resolve conflicts, process grievances, settle claims, and compensate for loses
Supporting institutional development to help clarify roles and
responsibilities for district/province governments in management, implementation, licensing, and monitoring activities on forestlands
Capacity building in regional government forestry
bureaucracies
Developing community-oriented and collaborative
management approaches to promote, establish, support and sustain dialogue and decision processes on the future organization and management of the forestry sector