Mes t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Demanda A(t)
10
12
12
11
15
14
18
22
18
28
33
31
31
37
40
33
50
45
55
60

Pronostico Suavizacin exponencial con tendencia

alfa=0,2
beta=0,6
F(t)
T(t)
10
0
10.4
0.24
10.912
0.4032
11.25216
0.365376
12.2940288 0.7712717
13.25224038 0.8834356
14.90854081 1.3471545
17.40455625 2.0364711
19.15282185 1.8635478
22.41309571 2.7015834
26.69174331 3.6478219
30.4716522 3.7270741
33.55898104 3.3432269
36.92176639
3.354962
40.22138271 3.3217546
41.43450983 2.0565781
44.79287035 2.8376476
47.10441433 2.5219854
50.70111979 3.1668174
55.09434978
3.902665

en la formula de f(t) para MAD, MSD, BLAS es f(t+tao)

comparacion A(t), f(t+tao19, f(t+tao2)

70

Axis Title

60
50

alfa representa
beta comportam

40
30
20
10
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

onostico Suavizacin exponencial con tendencia

Pronostico
f(t+)

El que mas se acerque a 0

(Mean absolute deviation)

10
10.64
11.3152
11.617536
13.06530048
14.13567601
16.25569531
19.44102731
21.01636964
25.11467914
30.33956525
34.1987263
36.90220799
40.27672838
43.54313729
43.49108794
47.63051791
49.62639973
53.86793723

CONTROL DEL MODELO

El que tenga el menor valor
Mean standard deviation

2
1.36
0.3152
3.382464
0.93469952
3.864323994
5.744304693
1.44102731
6.983630364
7.88532086
0.660434754
3.198726302
0.09779201
0.276728382
10.54313729
6.508912059
2.630517909
5.373600266
6.132062773
69.33288249
19
3.649099078

MAD, MSD, BLAS es f(t+tao)

MAD

f(t+tao19, f(t+tao2)

MSD
5.159810507

MAD

serie 1 demanda

serie 2 pronostico 1
serie 3 pronostico 2

18 19 20

4
1.8496
0.09935104
11.44106271
0.873663193
14.93299993
32.99703641
2.076559709
48.77109306
62.17828507
0.436174064
10.23184996
0.009563277
0.076578597
111.1577439
42.36593619
6.91962447
28.87557981
37.60219386
416.8948953
19
21.94183659

36.8804762
MSD

alfa representa las observaciones pasadas

beta comportamiento de la tendencia

DEL MODELO
sesgo(nunca se usa, porque no representa la realidad)
BIAS
-2
-1.36
0.3152
-3.382464
-0.93469952
-3.864323994
-5.744304693
1.44102731
-6.983630364
-7.88532086
-0.660434754
3.198726302
-0.09779201
0.276728382
10.54313729
-6.508912059
2.630517909
-5.373600266
-6.132062773
-32.5222081
19
-1.711695163
BIAS

BIAS

-4.419213158 CON alfa=1

beta=0,5
tao=1

10
10.3
10.655
10.89175
11.7102375
12.4613644
13.8143103
15.8412462
17.3734262
20.2837168
24.0387926
27.5664211
30.9129657
34.8292076
38.9123649
41.5915883
46.1233099
49.6456938
54.0835547

Mes t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Demanda A(t)
10
12
12
11
15
14
18
22
18
28
33
31
31
37
40
33
50
45
55
60

Pronostico Suavizacin exponencial con tendencia

alfa=0,1
beta=0,5
F(t)
T(t)
10
0
10.2
0.1
10.47
0.185
10.6895
0.20225
11.302575
0.4076625
11.9392138 0.52215063
13.0152279 0.79908241
14.6328793 1.20836689
16.0571216 1.31630458
18.4360835 1.84763327
21.5553451 2.48344743
24.7349133
2.8315078
27.909779 3.00318675
31.5216692 3.30753846
35.3462869 3.56607808
38.3211285 3.27045983
42.4324295 3.69088042
46.0109789 3.63471492
50.1811244 3.90243023
54.6751992
4.1982525

en la formula de f(t) para MAD, MSD, BLAS es f(t+tao)

Suavizacin exponencial con tendencia

Pronostico
f(t+)

El que mas se acerque a 0

(Mean absolute deviation)

10
10.3
10.655
10.89175
11.7102375
12.46136438
13.81431034
15.8412462
17.37342616
20.28371681
24.03879256
27.56642111
30.91296574
34.82920763
38.91236495
41.59158828
46.12330987
49.64569381
54.08355466

CONTROL DEL MODELO

El que tenga el menor valor
Mean standard deviation

2
1.7
0.345
4.10825
2.2897625
5.538635625
8.185689656
2.158753802
10.62657384
12.71628319
6.961207438
3.433578891
6.087034255
5.17079237
5.912364945
8.408411718
1.123309871
5.354306193
5.916445341
98.03639963
19
5.159810507
MAD

4
2.89
0.119025
16.87771806
5.243012306
30.67648459
67.00551515
4.660217976
112.9240716
161.7038581
48.45840899
11.789464
37.05198602
26.73709373
34.95605925
70.70138762
1.261825065
28.66859481
35.00432547
700.7290478
19
36.8804762
MSD

MODELO
sesgo(nunca se usa, porque no representa la realidad)
BIAS
-2
-1.7
-0.345
-4.10825
-2.2897625
-5.538635625
-8.185689656
-2.158753802
-10.62657384
-12.71628319
-6.961207438
-3.433578891
-6.087034255
-5.17079237
5.912364945
-8.408411718
1.123309871
-5.354306193
-5.916445341
-83.96505
19
-4.419213158
BIAS