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Analisis Metodologico para La Mode Lac Ion de La Seguridad Aliment Aria A Nivel Nacional
Analisis Metodologico para La Mode Lac Ion de La Seguridad Aliment Aria A Nivel Nacional
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Produccion agricola
alimentaria $
Distribucion de
ingreso
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Poblacion
-
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3URSRUFLyQGHSREODFLyQVLQ
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Produccion no
agricola $
EIecto acceso
alimentario sobre tasa
muerte
EIecto acceso alimentario
sobre productividad laboral
Productividad media
tierra para alimentos
-
Precios relativos no
alimentos
Precios relativos de
alimentos
-
ventas
B
B
R
R
B
R
- -
Stock de alimentos
-
-
-
Consumo
alimentario deseado
Necesidades basicas
alimentarias pc
B
F|gura 3. |ag|ama causa| de |a esl|uclu|a base de |a SA a u|ve| uac|oua|
lueule. |5O]
15
lacu|lad de C|euc|as Ag|opecua||as
Vo| 8 ho. 1 Eue|o - Juu|o 2O1O
|o laulo es |e|evaule hace| uua ap|op|ada se|ecc|u de
|a melodo|og|a de mode|am|eulo.
Eu esle seul|do, |a e|ecc|u de uua melodo|og|a ap|op|a-
da pa|a e| au||s|s de uu leumeuo, |equ|e|e eu p||me|a
|uslauc|a leue| c|a||dad de| objel|vo o p|ob|ema de es-
lud|o. Pa|a e| caso de |a Segu||dad A||meula||a, |esu|la
de |ule|es pa|l|cu|a| e| pode| |deul|l|ca| uua melodo|og|a
capa/ de |ep|eseula| de uua maue|a cohe|eule, |as
p||uc|pa|es |e|ac|oues causa|es de| s|slema a||meula||o
de lo|ma comp|eheus|va y d|um|ca, ca|acle||sl|cas
luudameula|es de| p|ob|ema de Segu||dad A||meula||a.
Los mode|os ecouomel||cos pa|a s|mu|ac|u de
po||l|cas hau s|do ap|op|ados pa|a e| co| lo pa/o.
Eslos hau s|do ul|||/ados pa|a eva|ua| camb|os eu
|a esl|uclu|a de |a demauda, camb|os eu |os p|ec|os
a||meula||os, camb|os eu |os laclo|es de p|oducc|u,
elc. S|u emba|go, esle l|po de mode|os uo cous|de|a
laclo|es ad|c|oua|es |mpo|laules pa|a |a eva|uac|u de
po||l|cas a |a|go p|a/o, po| ejemp|o |a |ac|oua||dad de|
compo|lam|eulo humauo, |a d|spou|b|||dad de |ulo|ma-
c|u que |os lomado|es de dec|s|oues uo l|eueu y |a uo
p|eseuc|a de me|cados pe|leclos y eu equ|||b||o. Los
mode|os Ecouomel||cos y |os |1uv|-uv|uv| p|oveeu
apoyo eu |a elapa de d|seuo de po||l|cas. Tecu|cas
de opl|m|/ac|u sou |as ms usadas pa|a se|ecc|oua|
|a dec|s|u que mejo| luuc|oua eu uu coujuulo de
mejo|es a|le|ual|vas. La s|mu|ac|u y |a opl|m|/ac|u
se comp|emeulau eu c|e|lo g|ado.
Pa|a e| au||s|s de |a|go p|a/o, se a|gumeula que |os
mode|os de d|um|ca de s|slemas (mode|os causa|es-
desc||pl|vos) sou |os ms elecl|vos pa|a p|ops|los de
uu euleud|m|eulo geue|a| o uua lo|mu|ac|u de po||l|cas
pa|a s|slemas ag|egados. Los mode|os de s|mu|ac|u
geue|au |ulo|mac|u ace|ca de| pos|b|e desa||o||o de
uu s|slema, esa |ulo|mac|u lo|ma |a base pa|a |a
geue|ac|u de uuevos objel|vos o pa|a |a d|scus|u de
objel|vos e/|sleules.
6. EFEEh0IA8
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|8] Thomsou, Auue aud Nel/, Naul|ed. (1999). lmp||-
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hal|ous (2OO8). E| Eslado de |a lusegu||dad A||- E| Eslado de |a lusegu||dad A||-
meula||a eu e| Nuudo. Roma, lla||a.
|G] The wo||d Bau|, (2OO8). wo||d eve|opmeul Repo|l
2OO8. Ag||cu|lu|e lo| eve|opmeul. wash|uglou,
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17
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