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# Modelo Desercion Ingenieria de Sistemas

## Poblacion_sistemas(t) = Poblacion_sistemas(t - dt) + (ingrsantes_sistemas - dese

rcion - terminan_carrera) * dtINIT Poblacion_sistemas = 361+ingrsantes_sistemas
INFLOWS:
OUTFLOWS:
alumnos_que_trabajan = (Poblacion_sistemas/tasa_alumnos_trabajo)*indice_de_oport
alumnos_q_otan_por_desertar = alumnos_que_trabajan*tasa_de_desercion+Problemas_p
ara_estudio*tasa_de_desercion
cepreUNU = 4
migracion_a_otra_carrera = Poblacion_sistemas*tasa_de_migracion_a_otra_carrera
Problemas_para_estudio = (alumnos_que_trabajan/prom_alumnos_trabajo_abandono)*ba
co
segunda_especialisacion = 1
tasa_de_desercion = 0.3
bajo_indice_economico = GRAPH(TIME)
(2012, 0.293), (2013, 0.256), (2014, 0.282), (2015, 0.291), (2016, 0.274), (2017
, 0.264), (2018, 0.283), (2019, 0.264), (2020, 0.286), (2021, 0.271), (2022, 0.2
86), (2023, 0.295), (2024, 0.276)
(2012, 0.42), (2013, 0.47), (2014, 0.38), (2015, 0.49), (2016, 0.36), (2017, 0.4
4), (2018, 0.43), (2019, 0.41), (2020, 0.38), (2021, 0.44), (2022, 0.39), (2023,
0.42), (2024, 0.42)
(2012, 0.063), (2013, 0.062), (2014, 0.059), (2015, 0.063), (2016, 0.064), (2017
, 0.065), (2018, 0.062), (2019, 0.063), (2020, 0.063), (2021, 0.065), (2022, 0.0
62), (2023, 0.061), (2024, 0.064)
(2012, 0.06), (2013, 0.04), (2014, 0.07), (2015, 0.045), (2016, 0.039), (2017, 0
.052), (2018, 0.061), (2019, 0.067), (2020, 0.042), (2021, 0.048), (2022, 0.056)
, (2023, 0.052), (2024, 0.043)
(2012, 0.45), (2013, 0.459), (2014, 0.526), (2015, 0.428), (2016, 0.496), (2017,
0.456), (2018, 0.478), (2019, 0.465), (2020, 0.482), (2021, 0.482), (2022, 0.45
3), (2023, 0.472), (2024, 0.492)
prom_alumnos_trabajo_abandono = GRAPH(TIME)
(2012, 0.235), (2013, 0.324), (2014, 0.269), (2015, 0.276), (2016, 0.315), (2017
, 0.249), (2018, 0.286), (2019, 0.311), (2020, 0.292), (2021, 0.264), (2022, 0.2
82), (2023, 0.319), (2024, 0.292)
(2012, 0.0625), (2013, 0.061), (2014, 0.063), (2015, 0.058), (2016, 0.043), (201
7, 0.063), (2018, 0.067), (2019, 0.059), (2020, 0.062), (2021, 0.072), (2022, 0.

## 041), (2023, 0.059), (2024, 0.043)

tasa_alumnos_trabajo = GRAPH(TIME)
(2012, 0.365), (2013, 0.326), (2014, 0.348), (2015, 0.376), (2016, 0.355), (2017
, 0.362), (2018, 0.428), (2019, 0.312), (2020, 0.369), (2021, 0.354), (2022, 0.3
27), (2023, 0.349), (2024, 0.382)
(2012, 0.0055), (2013, 0.003), (2014, 0.004), (2015, 0.002), (2016, 0.004), (201
7, 0.003), (2018, 0.006), (2019, 0.005), (2020, 0.007), (2021, 0.002), (2022, 0.
004), (2023, 0.003), (2024, 0.004)
tasa_de_migracion_a_otra_carrera = GRAPH(TIME)
(2012, 0.0361), (2013, 0.0368), (2014, 0.0326), (2015, 0.0382), (2016, 0.0356),
(2017, 0.0348), (2018, 0.0369), (2019, 0.0343), (2020, 0.0375), (2021, 0.0364),
(2022, 0.0382), (2023, 0.0339), (2024, 0.0349)