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Market Commentary 20NOV11

Market Commentary 20NOV11

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Publicado porAndysTechnicals

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Published by: AndysTechnicals on Nov 20, 2011
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05/02/2012

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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close

Admittedly, the hard rally up has been a bit stronger than I would have imagined. If the highs are taken out, then this wave count will have to undergo a major recounting. Until then, this remains my best interpretation. I’m still expecting this “z” wave to be a contracting triangle which partially explains the powerful a-wave.

REPRINTED from 10/30/2011
b

“y”

b

d

(B)
a?

“z”

a

c

“w”
d e

“x”
a c e

“x”

(C)

(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily: Support and Resistance
Last weekend, we made the case that 1258 would be good resistance on the first go. While the market did reverse at 1256 and fall 35 pts, the powerful move up from 1221 was surprising. Last week’s 2nd level resistance (1296) becomes near term resistance to start the week. 1347 still looks like an important level of resistance longer term.

REPRINTED from 10/30/2011

a

b

“x”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily: Support and Resistance
Due to another weekend away from home, this will be the only new slide for this update. The market did reverse strongly at 1296. The severity of the decline suggests the b-wave lower has become. 1264 looks like decent short term resistance as the 61.8% retrace of the decline. So far, the fall from 1296 is NOT impulsive looking, which is consistent with the b-wave theory. If this is a b-wave forming, it should be choppy/grinding move lower. I like the idea of being short S&P 500 at these levels, looking for a move down to near 1119. A break above 1264 would cause me to trim shorts. A break above 1296 would cause me to exit all shorts and a reevaluation.

REPRINTED from 11/6/2011

a

b

“x”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily: Wave Discussion
The previous three slides from earlier updates encapsulate well the current thinking about the wave count. The “x” wave concluded at 1075 and we’re in the midst of the “z” wave which looks to be a contracting triangle. The a-wave of the triangle probably concluded at 1260 which means market participants should be bracing for a choppy/grinding b-wave lower now. Wave theory cannot predict the level at which the b-wave will conclude--it must be between 38 and 162% of a-wave. There appears to be “classic” chart support at 1114. Maybe we can find other possible support points to consider….

“y”
g

b

d

e a
1260

f c a c

a b

d

1114=support

b

1075

e

“x” “x”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 60 Min: Wave Discussion

HEAD -c-e-

Right Shoulder

a
-gLeft Shoulder -a-f-d-a-? -b-

1154=Head and Shoulder Target

This is the best interpretation of the wave up from the 1075 low--that we have witnessed a “diametric” corrective a-wave which concluded at 1260. It’s interesting to note the presence of a short term “head and shoulder” pattern--admittedly, it’s a little messy. The target of the H&S would be 1154, which would be quite close to the 61.8% retrace the wider price range (1159). So, maybe it would be prudent to take some shorts off into this area (1154-1160)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 60 Min: Weekly Support and Resistance

1260 level appeared to concluded with a smaller triangle, thus the “thrusting” feel lower. Markets that thrust out of triangle should not see any deep retracements until the next wave, of the same degree, concludes. So, 1243/1260 are first and second levels of resistance for the week ahead, but it would be surprising to see a bounce back anywhere near that level. I am lowering my “stops” on short positions to 1260--a break above 1260 would cause me to exit all shorts. In the meantime, the market appears destined for a test of 1154.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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