P. 1
Probability and Stochastic Processes 2E, By Roy D. Yates , David J. Goodman

Probability and Stochastic Processes 2E, By Roy D. Yates , David J. Goodman

|Views: 910|Likes:
Publicado poriwat4

More info:

Published by: iwat4 on Oct 29, 2011
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

12/10/2012

pdf

text

original

Sections

  • Quiz 1.1
  • Quiz 1.2
  • Quiz 1.5
  • Quiz 1.7
  • Quiz 1.8
  • Quiz 1.9
  • Quiz 1.10
  • Quiz 1.11
  • Quiz 2.1
  • Quiz 2.2
  • Quiz 2.3
  • Quiz 2.4
  • Quiz 2.7
  • Quiz 2.8
  • Quiz 2.9
  • Quiz 2.10
  • Quiz 3.1
  • Quiz 3.2
  • Quiz 3.3
  • Quiz 3.4
  • Quiz 3.5
  • Quiz 3.6
  • Quiz 3.7
  • Quiz 3.8
  • Quiz 3.9
  • Quiz 4.1
  • Quiz 4.2
  • Quiz 4.3
  • Quiz 4.4
  • Quiz 4.5
  • Quiz 4.6
  • Quiz 4.7
  • Quiz 4.8
  • Quiz 4.9
  • Quiz 4.10
  • Quiz 4.11
  • Quiz 4.12
  • Quiz 5.1
  • Quiz 5.2
  • Quiz 5.3
  • Quiz 5.4
  • Quiz 5.5
  • Quiz 5.6
  • Quiz 5.7
  • Quiz 5.8
  • Quiz 6.1
  • Quiz 6.2
  • Quiz 6.3
  • Quiz 6.4
  • Quiz 6.5
  • Quiz 6.6
  • Quiz 6.7
  • Quiz 6.8
  • Quiz 6.9
  • Quiz 7.1
  • Quiz 7.2
  • Quiz 7.3
  • Quiz 7.4
  • Quiz 7.5
  • Quiz 8.1
  • Quiz 8.2
  • Quiz 8.3
  • Quiz 8.4
  • Quiz 9.1
  • Quiz 9.2
  • Quiz 9.3
  • Quiz 9.4
  • Quiz 9.5
  • Quiz 10.1
  • Quiz 10.2
  • Quiz 10.3
  • Quiz 10.4
  • Quiz 10.5
  • Quiz 10.6
  • Quiz 10.7
  • Quiz 10.8
  • Quiz 10.9
  • Quiz 10.10
  • Quiz 10.11
  • Quiz 10.12
  • Quiz 10.13
  • Quiz 11.1
  • Quiz 11.2
  • Quiz 11.3
  • Quiz 11.4
  • Quiz 11.5
  • Quiz 11.6
  • Quiz 11.7
  • Quiz 11.8
  • Quiz 11.9
  • Quiz 11.10
  • Quiz 12.1
  • Quiz 12.2
  • Quiz 12.3
  • Quiz 12.4
  • Quiz 12.5
  • Quiz 12.6
  • Quiz 12.7
  • Quiz 12.8
  • Quiz 12.9
  • Quiz 12.10

Probability and Stochastic Processes

A Friendly Introduction for Electrical and Computer Engineers
SECOND EDITION
MATLAB Function Reference
Roy D. Yates and David J. Goodman
May 22, 2004
This document is a supplemental reference for MATLAB functions described in the text Prob-
ability and Stochastic Processes: A Friendly Introduction for Electrical and Computer Engineers.
This document should be accompanied by matcode.zip, an archive of the corresponding MAT-
LAB .m files. Here are some points to keep in mind in using these functions.
• The actual programs can be found in the archive matcode.zip or in a directory matcode.
To use the functions, you will need to use the MATLAB command addpath to add this
directory to the path that MATLAB searches for executable .m files.
• The matcode archive has both general purpose programs for solving probability problems
as well as specific .m files associated with examples or quizzes in the text. This manual
describes only the general purpose .m files in matcode.zip. Other programs in the archive
are described in main text or in the Quiz Solution Manual.
• The MATLAB functions described here are intended as a supplement the text. The code is
not fully commented. Many comments and explanations relating to the code appear in the
text, the Quiz Solution Manual (available on the web) or in the Problem Solution Manual
(available on the web for instructors).
• The code is instructional. The focus is on MATLAB programming techniques to solve prob-
ability problems and to simulate experiments. The code is definitely not bulletproof; for
example, input range checking is generally neglected.
• This is a work in progress. At the moment (May, 2004), the homework solution manual has
a number of unsolved homework problems. As these solutions require the development of
additional MATLAB functions, these functions will be added to this reference manual.
• There is a nonzero probability (in fact, a probability close to unity) that errors will be found. If
you find errors or have suggestions or comments, please send email to ryates@winlab.rutgers.edu.
When errors are found, revisions both to this document and the collection of MATLAB func-
tions will be posted.
1
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Functions for Random Variables
bernoullipmf y=bernoullipmf(p,x)
function pv=bernoullipmf(p,x)
%For Bernoulli (p) rv X
%input = vector x
%output = vector pv
%such that pv(i)=Prob(X=x(i))
pv=(1-p)*(x==0) + p*(x==1);
pv=pv(:);
Input: p is the success probability of a Bernoulli
random variable X, x is a vector of possible
sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) = P
X
(x(i)).
bernoullicdf y=bernoullicdf(p,x)
function cdf=bernoullicdf(p,x)
%Usage: cdf=bernoullicdf(p,x)
% For Bernoulli (p) rv X,
%given input vector x, output is
%vector pv such that pv(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)]
x=floor(x(:));
allx=0:1;
allcdf=cumsum(bernoullipmf(p,allx));
okx=(x>=0); %x_i < 1 are bad values
x=(okx.*x); %set bad x_i=0
cdf= okx.*allcdf(x); %zeroes out bad x_i
Input: p is the success probability of
a Bernoulli random variable X,
x is a vector of possible sample
values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
bernoullirv x=bernoullirv(p,m)
function x=bernoullirv(p,m)
%return m samples of bernoulli (p) rv
r=rand(m,1);
x=(r>=(1-p));
Input: p is the success probability of a
Bernoulli random variable X, m is
a positive integer vector of possible
sample values
Output: x is a vector of m independent
sample values of X
2
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
bignomialpmf y=bignomialpmf(n,p,x)
function pmf=bignomialpmf(n,p,x)
%binomial(n,p) rv X,
%input = vector x
%output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)]
k=(0:n-1)’;
a=log((p/(1-p))*((n-k)./(k+1)));
L0=n*log(1-p);
L=[L0; L0+cumsum(a)];
pb=exp(L);
% pb=[P[X=0] ... P[X=n]]ˆt
x=x(:);
okx =(x>=0).*(x<=n).*(x==floor(x));
x=okx.*x;
pmf=okx.*pb(x+1);
Input: n and p are the parameters of
a binomial (n, p) random vari-
able X, x is a vector of possible
sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P
X
(x(i)).
Comment: This function should al-
ways produce the same output
as binomialpmf(n,p,x);
however, the function calcu-
lates the logarithmof the proba-
bility and thismay lead to small
numerical innaccuracy.
binomialcdf y=binomialcdf(n,p,x)
function cdf=binomialcdf(n,p,x)
%Usage: cdf=binomialcdf(n,p,x)
%For binomial(n,p) rv X,
%and input vector x, output is
%vector cdf: cdf(i)=P[X<=x(i)]
x=floor(x(:)); %for noninteger x(i)
allx=0:max(x);
%calculate cdf from 0 to max(x)
allcdf=cumsum(binomialpmf(n,p,allx));
okx=(x>=0); %x(i) < 0 are zero-prob values
x=(okx.*x); %set zero-prob x(i)=0
cdf= okx.*allcdf(x+1); %zero for zero-prob x(i)
Input: n and p are the pa-
rameters of a bino-
mial (n, p) random
variable X, x is a vec-
tor of possible sample
values
Output: y is a vector with
y(i) = F
X
(x(i)).
3
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
binomialpmf y=binomialpmf(n,p,x)
function pmf=binomialpmf(n,p,x)
%binomial(n,p) rv X,
%input = vector x
%output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)]
if p<0.5
pp=p;
else
pp=1-p;
end
i=0:n-1;
ip= ((n-i)./(i+1))*(pp/(1-pp));
pb=((1-pp)ˆn)*cumprod([1 ip]);
if pp < p
pb=fliplr(pb);
end
pb=pb(:); % pb=[P[X=0] ... P[X=n]]ˆt
x=x(:);
okx =(x>=0).*(x<=n).*(x==floor(x));
x=okx.*x;
pmf=okx.*pb(x+1);
Input: n and p are the parameters of
a binomial (n, p) random vari-
able X, x is a vector of possible
sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P
X
(x(i)).
binomialrv x=binomialrv(n,p,m)
function x=binomialrv(n,p,m)
% m binomial(n,p) samples
r=rand(m,1);
cdf=binomialcdf(n,p,0:n);
x=count(cdf,r);
Input: n and p are the parameters of a binomial ran-
dom variable X, m is a positive integer
Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of
random variable X
bivariategausspdf
function f=bivariategausspdf(muX,muY,sigmaX,sigmaY,rho,x,y)
%Usage: f=bivariategausspdf(muX,muY,sigmaX,sigmaY,rho,x,y)
%Evaluate the bivariate Gaussian (muX,muY,sigmaX,sigmaY,rho) PDF
nx=(x-muX)/sigmaX;
ny=(y-muY)/sigmaY;
f=exp(-((nx.ˆ2) +(ny.ˆ2) - (2*rho*nx.*ny))/(2*(1-rhoˆ2)));
f=f/(2*pi*sigmax*sigmay*sqrt(1-rhoˆ2));
Input: Scalar parameters muX,muY,sigmaX,sigmaY,rho of the bivariate Gaussian PDF, scalars
x and y.
Output: f the value of the bivariate Gaussian PDF at x,y.
4
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
duniformcdf y=duniformcdf(k,l,x)
function cdf=duniformcdf(k,l,x)
%Usage: cdf=duniformcdf(k,l,x)
% For discrete uniform (k,l) rv X
% and input vector x, output is
% vector cdf: cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)]
x=floor(x(:)); %for noninteger x_i
allx=k:max(x);
%allcdf = cdf values from 0 to max(x)
allcdf=cumsum(duniformpmf(k,l,allx));
%x_i < k are zero prob values
okx=(x>=k);
%set zero prob x(i)=k
x=((1-okx)*k)+(okx.*x);
%x(i)=0 for zero prob x(i)
cdf= okx.*allcdf(x-k+1);
Input: k and l are the parameters of
a discrete uniform (k, l) random
variable X, x is a vector of pos-
sible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
duniformpmf y=duniformpmf(k,l,x)
function pmf=duniformpmf(k,l,x)
%discrete uniform(k,l) rv X,
%input = vector x
%output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)]
pmf= (x>=k).*(x<=l).*(x==floor(x));
pmf=pmf(:)/(l-k+1);
Input: k and l are the parameters
of a discrete uniform (k, l) ran-
dom variable X, x is a vector of
possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P
X
(x(i)).
duniformrv x=duniformrv(k,l,m)
function x=duniformrv(k,l,m)
%returns m samples of a discrete
%uniform (k,l) random variable
r=rand(m,1);
cdf=duniformcdf(k,l,k:l);
x=k+count(cdf,r);
Input: k and l are the parameters of a discrete
uniform (k, l) random variable X, m is a
positive integer
Output: x is a vector of m independent samples
of random variable X
5
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
erlangb pb=erlangb(rho,c)
function pb=erlangb(rho,c);
%Usage: pb=erlangb(rho,c)
%returns the Erlang-B blocking
%probability for sn M/M/c/c
%queue with load rho
pn=exp(-rho)*poissonpmf(rho,0:c);
pb=pn(c+1)/sum(pn);
Input: Offered load rho (ρ = λ/µ), and
the number of servers c of an M/M/c/c
queue.
Output: pb, the blocking probability of the
queue
erlangcdf y=erlangcdf(n,lambda,x)
function F=erlangcdf(n,lambda,x)
F=1.0-poissoncdf(lambda*x,n-1);
Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an
Erlang random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= F
X
(x
i
).
erlangpdf y=erlangpdf(n,lambda,x)
function f=erlangpdf(n,lambda,x)
f=((lambdaˆn)/factorial(n))...
*(x.ˆ(n-1)).*exp(-lambda*x);
Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an
Erlang random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= f
X
(x
i
) =
λ
n
x
n−1
i
e
−λx
i
/(n − 1)!.
erlangrv x=erlangrv(n,lambda,m)
function x=erlangrv(n,lambda,m)
y=exponentialrv(lambda,m*n);
x=sum(reshape(y,m,n),2);
Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an
Erlang random variable X, integer m
Output: Length m vector x such that each x
i
is a
sample of X
exponentialcdf y=exponentialcdf(lambda,x)
function F=exponentialcdf(lambda,x)
F=1.0-exp(-lambda*x);
Input: lambda is the parameter of an ex-
ponential random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= F
X
(x
i
) =
1 − e
−λx
i
.
6
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
exponentialpdf y=exponentialpdf(lambda,x)
function f=exponentialpdf(lambda,x)
f=lambda*exp(-lambda*x);
f=f.*(x>=0);
Input: lambda is the parameter of an ex-
ponential random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= f
X
(x
i
) =
λe
−λx
i
.
exponentialrv x=exponentialrv(lambda,m)
function x=exponentialrv(lambda,m)
x=-(1/lambda)*log(1-rand(m,1));
Input: lambda is the parameter of an expo-
nential random variable X, integer m
Output: Length m vector x such that each x
i
is a sample of X
finitecdf y=finitecdf(sx,p,x)
function cdf=finitecdf(s,p,x)
% finite random variable X:
% vector sx of sample space
% elements {sx(1),sx(2), ...}
% vector px of probabilities
% px(i)=P[X=sx(i)]
% Output is the vector
% cdf: cdf(i)=P[X=x(i)]
cdf=[];
for i=1:length(x)
pxi= sum(p(find(s<=x(i))));
cdf=[cdf; pxi];
end
Input: sx is the range of a finite random variable
X, px is the corresponding probability as-
signment, x is a vector of possible sample
values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) = F
X
(x(i)).
finitecoeff rho=finitecoeff(SX,SY,PXY)
function rho=finitecoeff(SX,SY,PXY);
%Usage: rho=finitecoeff(SX,SY,PXY)
%Calculate the correlation coefficient rho of
%finite random variables X and Y
ex=finiteexp(SX,PXY); vx=finitevar(SX,PXY);
ey=finiteexp(SY,PXY); vy=finitevar(SY,PXY);
R=finiteexp(SX.*SY,PXY);
rho=(R-ex*ey)/sqrt(vx*vy);
Input: Grids SX, SY and
probability grid PXY de-
scribing the finite ran-
dom variables X and Y.
Output: rho, the correlation
coefficient of X and Y
7
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
finitecov covxy=finitecov(SX,SY,PXY)
function covxy=finitecov(SX,SY,PXY);
%Usage: cxy=finitecov(SX,SY,PXY)
%returns the covariance of
%finite random variables X and Y
%given by grids SX, SY, and PXY
ex=finiteexp(SX,PXY);
ey=finiteexp(SY,PXY);
R=finiteexp(SX.*SY,PXY);
covxy=R-ex*ey;
Input: Grids SX, SY and probability grid
PXY describing the finite random
variables X and Y.
Output: covxy, the covariance of X and
Y.
finiteexp ex=finiteexp(sx,px)
function ex=finiteexp(sx,px);
%Usage: ex=finiteexp(sx,px)
%returns the expected value E[X]
%of finite random variable X described
%by samples sx and probabilities px
ex=sum((sx(:)).*(px(:)));
Input: Probability vector px, vector
of samples sx describing random
variable X.
Output: ex, the expected value E[X].
finitepmf y=finitepmf(sx,p,x)
function pmf=finitepmf(sx,px,x)
% finite random variable X:
% vector sx of sample space
% elements {sx(1),sx(2), ...}
% vector px of probabilities
% px(i)=P[X=sx(i)]
% Output is the vector
% pmf: pmf(i)=P[X=x(i)]
pmf=zeros(size(x(:)));
for i=1:length(x)
pmf(i)= sum(px(find(sx==x(i))));
end
Input: sx is the range of a finite random
variable X, px is the corresponding
probability assignment, x is a vector
of possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P[X = x(i)].
finiterv x=finiterv(sx,p,m)
function x=finiterv(s,p,m)
% returns m samples
% of finite (s,p) rv
%s=s(:);p=p(:);
r=rand(m,1);
cdf=cumsum(p);
x=s(1+count(cdf,r));
Input: sx is the range of a finite random variable X, p
is the corresponding probability assignment, m is
positive integer
Output: x is a vector of m sample values y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
8
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
finitevar v=finitevar(sx,px)
function v=finitevar(sx,px);
%Usage: ex=finitevar(sx,px)
% returns the variance Var[X]
% of finite random variables X described by
% samples sx and probabilities px
ex2=finiteexp(sx.ˆ2,px);
ex=finiteexp(sx,px);
v=ex2-(exˆ2);
Input: Probability vector px
and vector of samples
sx describing random
variable X.
Output: v, the variance
Var[X].
gausscdf y=gausscdf(mu,sigma,x)
function f=gausscdf(mu,sigma,x)
f=phi((x-mu)/sigma);
Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an
Guassian random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= F
X
(x
i
) =
((x
i
− µ)/σ).
gausspdf y=gausspdf(mu,sigma,x)
function f=gausspdf(mu,sigma,x)
f=exp(-(x-mu).ˆ2/(2*sigmaˆ2))/...
sqrt(2*pi*sigmaˆ2);
Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an
Guassian random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= f
X
(x
i
).
gaussrv x=gaussrv(mu,sigma,m)
function x=gaussrv(mu,sigma,m)
x=mu +(sigma*randn(m,1));
Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an
Gaussian random variable X, integer m
Output: Length m vector x such that each x
i
is a
sample of X
9
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
gaussvector x=gaussvector(mu,C,m)
function x=gaussvector(mu,C,m)
%output: m Gaussian vectors,
%each with mean mu
%and covariance matrix C
if (min(size(C))==1)
C=toeplitz(C);
end
n=size(C,2);
if (length(mu)==1)
mu=mu*ones(n,1);
end
[U,D,V]=svd(C);
x=V*(Dˆ(0.5))*randn(n,m)...
+(mu(:)*ones(1,m));
Input: For a Gaussian (µ
X
, C
X
) random vector X,
gaussvector can be called in two ways:
• C is the n × n covariance matrix, mu is
either a length n vector, or a length 1
scalar, m is an integer.
• C is the length n vector equal to the first
row of a symmetric Toeplitz covariance
matrix C
X
, mu is either a length n vec-
tor, or a length 1 scalar, m is an integer.
If mu is a length n vector, then mu is the ex-
pected value vector; otherwise, each element
of X is assumed to have mean mu.
Output: n × m matrix x such that each column
x(:,i) is a sample vector of X
gaussvectorpdf f=gaussvector(mu,C,x)
function f=gaussvectorpdf(mu,C,x)
n=length(x);
z=x(:)-mu(:);
f=exp(-z’*inv(C)*z)/...
sqrt((2*pi)ˆn*det(C));
Input: For a Gaussian (µ
X
, C
X
) random vec-
tor X, mu is a length n vector, C is the
n × n covariance matrix, x is a length n
vector.
Output: f is the Gaussian vector PDF f
X
(x)
evaluated at x.
geometriccdf y=geometriccdf(p,x)
function cdf=geometriccdf(p,x)
% for geometric(p) rv X,
%For input vector x, output is vector
%cdf such that cdf_i=Prob(X<=x_i)
x=(x(:)>=1).*floor(x(:));
cdf=1-((1-p).ˆx);
Input: p is the parameter of a geometric
random variable X, x is a vector of
possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
10
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
geometricpmf y=geometricpmf(p,x)
function pmf=geometricpmf(p,x)
%geometric(p) rv X
%out: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)]
x=x(:);
pmf= p*((1-p).ˆ(x-1));
pmf= (x>0).*(x==floor(x)).*pmf;
Input: p is the parameter of a geometric random
variable X, x is a vector of possible sample
values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) = P
X
(x(i)).
geometricrv x=geometricrv(p,m)
function x=geometricrv(p,m)
%Usage: x=geometricrv(p,m)
% returns m samples of a geometric (p) rv
r=rand(m,1);
x=ceil(log(1-r)/log(1-p));
Input: p is the parameters of a
geometric random variable
X, m is a positive integer
Output: x is a vector of m inde-
pendent samples of random
variable X
icdfrv x=icdfrv(@icdf,m)
function x=icdfrv(icdfhandle,m)
%Usage: x=icdfrv(@icdf,m)
%returns m samples of rv X
%with inverse CDF icdf.m
u=rand(m,1);
x=feval(icdfhandle,u);
Input: @icdfrv is a “handle” (a kind of pointer)
to a MATLAB function icdf.m that is
MATLAB’s representation of an inverse
CDF F
−1
X
(x) of a random variable X, inte-
ger m
Output: Length m vector x such that each x
i
is a
sample of X
11
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
pascalcdf y=pascalcdf(k,p,x)
function cdf=pascalcdf(k,p,x)
%Usage: cdf=pascalcdf(k,p,x)
%For a pascal (k,p) rv X
%and input vector x, the output
%is a vector cdf such that
% cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)]
x=floor(x(:)); % for noninteger x(i)
allx=k:max(x);
%allcdf holds all needed cdf values
allcdf=cumsum(pascalpmf(k,p,allx));
%x_i < k have zero-prob,
% other values are OK
okx=(x>=k);
%set zero-prob x(i)=k,
%just so indexing is not fouled up
x=(okx.*x) +((1-okx)*k);
cdf= okx.*allcdf(x-k+1);
Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pas-
cal (k, p) random variable X, x is a
vector of possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
pascalpmf y=pascalpmf(k,p,x)
function pmf=pascalpmf(k,p,x)
%For Pascal (k,p) rv X, and
%input vector x, output is a
%vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)]
x=x(:);
n=max(x);
i=(k:n-1)’;
ip= [1 ;(1-p)*(i./(i+1-k))];
%pb=all n-k+1 pascal probs
pb=(pˆk)*cumprod(ip);
okx=(x==floor(x)).*(x>=k);
%set bad x(i)=k to stop bad indexing
x=(okx.*x) + k*(1-okx);
% pmf(i)=0 unless x(i) >= k
pmf=okx.*pb(x-k+1);
Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pas-
cal (k, p) random variable X, x is a
vector of possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P
X
(x(i)).
12
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
pascalrv x=pascalrv(k,p,m)
function x=pascalrv(k,p,m)
% return m samples of pascal(k,p) rv
r=rand(m,1);
rmax=max(r);
xmin=k;
xmax=ceil(2*(k/p)); %set max range
sx=xmin:xmax;
cdf=pascalcdf(k,p,sx);
while cdf(length(cdf)) <=rmax
xmax=2*xmax;
sx=xmin:xmax;
cdf=pascalcdf(k,p,sx);
end
x=xmin+countless(cdf,r);
Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pas-
cal random variable X, m is a posi-
tive integer
Output: x is a vector of m independent
samples of random variable X
phi y=phi(x)
function y=phi(x)
sq2=sqrt(2);
y= 0.5 + 0.5*erf(x/sq2);
Input: Vector x
Output: Vector y such that y(i) = (x(i)).
poissoncdf y=poissoncdf(alpha,x)
function cdf=poissoncdf(alpha,x)
%output cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)]
x=floor(x(:));
sx=0:max(x);
cdf=cumsum(poissonpmf(alpha,sx));
%cdf from 0 to max(x)
okx=(x>=0);%x(i)<0 -> cdf=0
x=(okx.*x);%set negative x(i)=0
cdf= okx.*cdf(x+1);
%cdf=0 for x(i)<0
Input: alpha is the parameter of a Poisson
(α) random variable X, x is a vector of
possible sample values
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
F
X
(x(i)).
13
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
poissonpmf y=poissonpmf(alpha,x)
function pmf=poissonpmf(alpha,x)
%Poisson (alpha) rv X,
%out=vector pmf: pmf(i)=P[X=x(i)]
x=x(:);
k=(1:max(x))’;
logfacts =cumsum(log(k));
pb=exp([-alpha; ...
-alpha+ (k*log(alpha))-logfacts]);
okx=(x>=0).*(x==floor(x));
x=okx.*x;
pmf=okx.*pb(x+1);
%pmf(i)=0 for zero-prob x(i)
Input: alpha is the parameter of a
Poisson (α) random variable X, x
is a vector of possible sample val-
ues
Output: y is a vector with y(i) =
P
X
(x(i)).
poissonrv x=poissonrv(alpha,m)
function x=poissonrv(alpha,m)
%return m samples of poisson(alpha) rv X
r=rand(m,1);
rmax=max(r);
xmin=0;
xmax=ceil(2*alpha); %set max range
sx=xmin:xmax;
cdf=poissoncdf(alpha,sx);
%while ( sum(cdf <=rmax) ==(xmax-xmin+1) )
while cdf(length(cdf)) <=rmax
xmax=2*xmax;
sx=xmin:xmax;
cdf=poissoncdf(alpha,sx);
end
x=xmin+countless(cdf,r);
Input: alpha is the parameter of
a Poisson (α) random vari-
able X, m is a positive inte-
ger
Output: x is a vector of m inde-
pendent samples of random
variable X
uniformcdf y=uniformcdf(a,b,x)
function F=uniformcdf(a,b,x)
%Usage: F=uniformcdf(a,b,x)
%returns the CDF of a continuous
%uniform rv evaluated at x
F=x.*((x>=a) & (x<b))/(b-a);
F=f+1.0*(x>=b);
Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous
uniform random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= F
X
(x
i
)
14
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
uniformpdf y=uniformpdf(a,b,x)
function f=uniformpdf(a,b,x)
%Usage: f=uniformpdf(a,b,x)
%returns the PDF of a continuous
%uniform rv evaluated at x
f=((x>=a) & (x<b))/(b-a);
Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous
uniform random variable X, vector x
Output: Vector y such that y
i
= f
X
(x
i
)
uniformrv x=uniformrv(a,b,m)
function x=uniformrv(a,b,m)
%Usage: x=uniformrv(a,b,m)
%Returns m samples of a
%uniform (a,b) random varible
x=a+(b-a)*rand(m,1);
Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous uni-
form random variable X, positive integer m
Output: m element vector x such that each x(i) is
a sample of X.
15
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Functions for Stochastic Processes
brownian w=brownian(alpha,t)
function w=brownian(alpha,t)
%Brownian motion process
%sampled at t(1)<t(2)< ...
t=t(:);
n=length(t);
delta=t-[0;t(1:n-1)];
x=sqrt(alpha*delta).*gaussrv(0,1,n);
w=cumsum(x);
Input: t is a vector holding an ordered se-
quence of inspection times, alpha
is the scaling constant of a Brownian
motion process such that the i th in-
crement has variance α(t
i
− t
i −1
).
Output: w is a vector such that w(i) is
the position at time t(i) of the par-
ticle in Brownian motion.
cmcprob pv=cmcprob(Q,p0,t)
function pv = cmcprob(Q,p0,t)
%Q has zero diagonal rates
%initial state probabilities p0
K=size(Q,1)-1; %max no. state
%check for integer p0
if (length(p0)==1)
p0=((0:K)==p0);
end
R=Q-diag(sum(Q,2));
pv= (p0(:)’*expm(R*t))’;
Input: n × n state transition matrix Q for a
continuous-time finite Markov chain, length
n vector p0 denoting the initial state proba-
bilities, nonengative scalar t
Output: Length n vector pv such that pv(t) is
the state probability vector at time t of the
Markov chain
Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer, then the sim-
ulation starts in state p0
cmcstatprob pv=cmcstatprob(Q)
function pv = cmcstatprob(Q)
%Q has zero diagonal rates
R=Q-diag(sum(Q,2));
n=size(Q,1);
R(:,1)=ones(n,1);
pv=([1 zeros(1,n-1)]*Rˆ(-1))’;
Input: State transition matrix Q for a continuous-
time finite Markov chain
Output: pv is the stationary probability vector for
the continuous-time Markov chain
dmcstatprob pv=dmcstatprob(P)
function pv = dmcstatprob(P)
n=size(P,1);
A=(eye(n)-P);
A(:,1)=ones(n,1);
pv=([1 zeros(1,n-1)]*Aˆ(-1))’;
Input: n × n stochastic matrix P representing
a discrete-time aperiodic irreducible finite
Markov chain
Output: pv is the stationary probability vector.
16
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
poissonarrivals s=poissonarrivals(lambda,T)
function s=poissonarrivals(lambda,T)
%arrival times s=[s(1) ... s(n)]
% s(n)<= T < s(n+1)
n=ceil(1.1*lambda*T);
s=cumsum(exponentialrv(lambda,n));
while (s(length(s))< T),
s_new=s(length(s))+ ...
cumsum(exponentialrv(lambda,n));
s=[s; s_new];
end
s=s(s<=T);
Input: lambda is the arrival rate of a
Poisson process, T marks the end of
an observation interval [0, T].
Output: s=[s(1), ..., s(n)]’ is
a vector such that s(i) is i th arrival
time. Note that length n is a Poisson
random variable with expected value
λT.
Comment: This code is pretty stupid.
There are decidedly better ways to
create a set of arrival times; see Prob-
lem 10.13.5.
poissonprocess N=poissonprocess(lambda,t)
function N=poissonprocess(lambda,t)
%input: rate lambda>0, vector t
%For a sample function of a
%Poisson process of rate lambda,
%N(i) = no. of arrivals by t(i)
s=poissonarrivals(lambda,max(t));
N=count(s,t);
Input: lambda is the arrival rate of a Pois-
son process, t is a vector of “inspec-
tion times’.’
Output: N is a vector such that N(i) is the
number of arrival by inspection time
t(i).
simcmc ST=simcmc(Q,p0,T)
function ST=simcmc(Q,p0,T);
K=size(Q,1)-1; max no. state
%calc average trans. rate
ps=cmcstatprob(Q);
v=sum(Q,2); R=ps’*v;
n=ceil(0.6*T/R);
ST=simcmcstep(Q,p0,2*n);
while (sum(ST(:,2))<T),
s=ST(size(ST,1),1);
p00=Q(1+s,:)/v(1+s);
S=simcmcstep(Q,p00,n);
ST=[ST;S];
end
n=1+sum(cumsum(ST(:,2))<T);
ST=ST(1:n,:);
%truncate last holding time
ST(n,2)=T-sum(ST(1:n-1,2));
Input: state transition matrix Q for a continuous-time
finite Markov chain, vector p0 denoting the ini-
tial state probabilities, integer n
Output: A simulation of the Markov chain system
over the time interval [0, T]: The output is an
n × 2 matrix ST such that the first column
ST(:,1) is the sequence of system states and
the second column ST(:,2) is the amount of
time spent in each state. That is, ST(i,2) is
the amount of time the system spends in state
ST(i,1).
Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer, then the simula-
tion starts in state p0. Note that n, the number
of state occupancy periods, is random.
17
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
simcmcstep S=simcmcstep(Q,p0,n)
function S=simcmcstep(Q,p0,n);
%S=simcmcstep(Q,p0,n)
% Simulate n steps of a cts
% Markov Chain, rate matrix Q,
% init. state probabilities p0
K=size(Q,1)-1; %max no. state
S=zeros(n+1,2);%init allocation
%check for integer p0
if (length(p0)==1)
p0=((0:K)==p0);
end
v=sum(Q,2); %state dep. rates
t=1./v;
P=diag(t)*Q;
S(:,1)=simdmc(P,p0,n);
S(:,2)=t(1+S(:,1)) ...
.*exponentialrv(1,n+1);
Input: State transition matrix Q for a continuous-
time finite Markov chain, vector p0 denot-
ing the initial state probabilities, integer n
Output: A simulation of n steps of the
continuous-time Markov chain system:
The output is an n × 2 matrix ST such that
the first column ST(:,1) is the length n
sequence of system states and the second
column ST(:,2) is the amount of time
spent in each state. That is, ST(i,2) is
the amount of time the system spends in
state ST(i,1).
Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer, then the sim-
ulation starts in state p0. This program is
the basis for simcmc.
simdmc x=simdmc(P,p0,n)
function x=simdmc(P,p0,n)
K=size(P,1)-1; %highest no. state
sx=0:K; %state space
x=zeros(n+1,1); %initialization
if (length(p0)==1) %convert integer p0 to prob vector
p0=((0:K)==p0);
end
x(1)=finiterv(sx,p0,1); %x(m)= state at time m-1
for m=1:n,
x(m+1)=finiterv(sx,P(x(m)+1,:),1);
end
Input: n×n stochastic matrix P which is the state transition matrix of a discrete-time finite Markov
chain, length n vector p0 denoting the initial state probabilities, integer n.
Output: A simulation of the Markov chain system such that for the length n vector x, x(m) is the
state at time m-1 of the Markov chain.
Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer, then the simulation starts in state p0
18
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Random Utilities
count n=count(x,y)
function n=count(x,y)
%Usage n=count(x,y)
%n(i)= # elements of x <= y(i)
[MX,MY]=ndgrid(x,y);
%each column of MX = x
%each row of MY = y
n=(sum((MX<=MY),1))’;
Input: Vectors x and y
Output: Vector n such that n(i ) is the number of
elements of x less than or equal to y(i).
countequal n=countequal(x,y)
function n=countequal(x,y)
%Usage: n=countequal(x,y)
%n(j)= # elements of x = y(j)
[MX,MY]=ndgrid(x,y);
%each column of MX = x
%each row of MY = y
n=(sum((MX==MY),1))’;
Input: Vectors x and y
Output: Vector n such that n(i ) is the number of
elements of x equal to y(i).
countless n=countless(x,y)
function n=countless(x,y)
%Usage: n=countless(x,y)
%n(i)= # elements of x < y(i)
[MX,MY]=ndgrid(x,y);
%each column of MX = x
%each row of MY = y
n=(sum((MX<MY),1))’;
Input:
Input: Vectors x and y
Output: Vector n such that n(i ) is the number of
elements of x strictly less than y(i).
dftmat F=dftmat(N)
function F = dftmat(N);
Usage: F=dftmat(N)
%F is the N by N DFT matrix
n=(0:N-1)’;
F=exp((-1.0j)*2*pi*(n*(n’))/N);
Input: Integer N.
Output: F is the N by N discrete Fourier trans-
form matrix
19
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
freqxy fxy=freqxy(xy,SX,SY)
function fxy = freqxy(xy,SX,SY)
%Usage: fxy = freqxy(xy,SX,SY)
%xy is an m x 2 matrix:
%xy(i,:)= ith sample pair X,Y
%Output fxy is a K x 3 matrix:
% [fxy(k,1) fxy(k,2)]
% = kth unique pair [x y] and
% fxy(k,3)= corresp. rel. freq.
%extend xy to include a sample
%for all possible (X,Y) pairs:
xy=[xy; SX(:) SY(:)];
[U,I,J]=unique(xy,’rows’);
N=hist(J,1:max(J))-1;
N=N/sum(N);
fxy=[U N(:)];
%reorder fxy rows to match
%rows of [SX(:) SY(:) PXY(:)]:
fxy=sortrows(fxy,[2 1 3]);
Input: For random variables X and Y, xy is
an m × 2 matrix holding a list of sample
values pairs; yy(i,:) is the i th sample
pair (X, Y). Grids SX and SY represent-
ing the sample space.
Output: fxy is a K × 3 matrix. In each row
[fxy(k,1) fxy(k,2) fxy(k,3)]
[fxy(k,1) fxy(k,2)] is a unique
(X, Y) pair with relative frequency
fxy(k,3).
Comment: Given the grids SX, SY and the
probability grid PXY, a list of random
sample value pairs xy can be simulated
by the commands
S=[SX(:) SY(:)];
xy=finiterv(S,PXY(:),m);
The output fxy is ordered so that the
rows match the ordering of rows in the
matrix
[SX(:) SY(:) PXY(:)].
fftc S=fftc(r,N); S=fftc(r)
function S=fftc(varargin);
%DFT for a signal r
%centered at the origin
%Usage:
% fftc(r,N): N point DFT of r
% fftc(r): length(r) DFT of r
r=varargin{1};
L=1+floor(length(r)/2);
if (nargin>1)
N=varargin{2}(1);
else
N=(2*L)-1;
end
R=fft(r,N);
n=reshape(0:(N-1),size(R));
phase=2*pi*(n/N)*(L-1);
S=R.*exp((1.0j)*phase);
Input: Vector r=[r(1) ... r(2k+1)]
holding the time sequence r
−k
, . . . , r
0
, . . . , r
k
centered around the origin.
Output: S is the DFT of r
Comment: Supports the same calling conventions
as fft.
20
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
pmfplot pmfplot(sx,px,’x’,’y axis text’)
function h=pmfplot(sx,px,xls,yls)
%Usage: pmfplot(sx,px,xls,yls)
%sx and px are vectors, px is the PMF
%xls and yls are x and y label strings
nonzero=find(px);
sx=sx(nonzero); px=px(nonzero);
sx=(sx(:))’; px=(px(:))’;
XM = [sx; sx];
PM=[zeros(size(px)); px];
h=plot(XM,PM,’-k’);
set(h,’LineWidth’,3);
if (nargin==4)
xlabel(xls);
ylabel(yls,’VerticalAlignment’,’Bottom’);
end
xmin=min(sx); xmax=max(sx);
xborder=0.05*(xmax-xmin);
xmax=xmax+xborder;
xmin=xmin-xborder;
ymax=1.1*max(px);
axis([xmin xmax 0 ymax]);
Input: Sample space vector sx
and PMF vector px for fi-
nite random variable PXY,
optional text strings xls
and yls
Output: A plot of the PMF
P
X
(x) in the bar style used
in the text.
rect y=rect(x)
function y=rect(x);
%Usage:y=rect(x);
y=1.0*(abs(x)<0.5);
Input: Vector x
Output: Vector y such that
y
i
= rect(x
i
) =

1 |x
i
| < 0.5
0 otherwise
sinc y=sinc(x)
function y=sinc(x);
xx=x+(x==0);
y=sin(pi*xx)./(pi*xx);
y=((1.0-(x==0)).*y)+ (1.0*(x==0));
Input: Vector x
Output: Vector y such that
y
i
= sinc(x
i
) =
sin(πx
i
)
πx
i
Comment: The code is ugly because it makes
sure to produce the right limit value at
x
i
= 0.
21
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
simplot simplot(S,xlabel,ylabel)
function h=simplot(S,xls,yls);
%h=simplot(S,xlabel,ylabel)
% Plots the output of a simulated state sequence
% If S is N by 1, a discrete time chain is assumed
% with visit times of one unit.
% If S is an N by 2 matrix, a cts time Markov chain
% is assumed where
% S(:,1) = state sequence.
% S(:,2) = state visit times.
% The cumulative sum
% of visit times are transition instances.
% h is a handle to a stairs plot of the state sequence
% vs state transition times
%in case of discrete time simulation
if (size(S,2)==1)
S=[S ones(size(S))];
end
Y=[S(:,1) ; S(size(S,1),1)];
X=cumsum([0 ; S(:,2)]);
h=stairs(X,Y);
if (nargin==3)
xlabel(xls);
ylabel(yls,’VerticalAlignment’,’Bottom’);
end
Input: The simulated state sequence vector S generated by S=simdmc(P,p0,n) or the n × 2
state/time matrix ST generated by either
ST=simcmc(Q,p0,T)
or
ST=simcmcstep(Q,p0,n).
Output: A “stairs” plot showing the sequence of simulation states over time.
Comment: If S is just a state sequence vector, then each stair has equal width. If S is n × 2
state/time matrix ST, then the width of the stair is proportional to the time spent in that state.
22
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Probability and Stochastic Processes
A Friendly Introduction for Electrical and Computer Engineers
Second Edition
Quiz Solutions
Roy D. Yates and David J. Goodman
May 22, 2004
• The MATLAB section quizzes at the end of each chapter use programs available for
download as the archive matcode.zip. This archive has programs of general pur-
pose programs for solving probability problems as well as specific .m files associated
with examples or quizzes in the text. Also available is a manual probmatlab.pdf
describing the general purpose .m files in matcode.zip.
• We have made a substantial effort to check the solution to every quiz. Nevertheless,
there is a nonzero probability (in fact, a probability close to unity) that errors will be
found. If you find errors or have suggestions or comments, please send email to
ryates@winlab.rutgers.edu.
When errors are found, corrected solutions will be posted at the website.
1
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 1
Quiz 1.1
In the Venn diagrams for parts (a)-(g) below, the shaded area represents the indicated
set.
M
O
T
M
O
T
M
O
T
(1) R = T
c
(2) M ∪ O (3) M ∩ O
M
O
T
M
O
T
M
O
T
(4) R ∪ M (4) R ∩ M (6) T
c
− M
Quiz 1.2
(1) A
1
= {vvv, vvd, vdv, vdd}
(2) B
1
= {dvv, dvd, ddv, ddd}
(3) A
2
= {vvv, vvd, dvv, dvd}
(4) B
2
= {vdv, vdd, ddv, ddd}
(5) A
3
= {vvv, ddd}
(6) B
3
= {vdv, dvd}
(7) A
4
= {vvv, vvd, vdv, dvv, vdd, dvd, ddv}
(8) B
4
= {ddd, ddv, dvd, vdd}
Recall that A
i
and B
i
are collectively exhaustive if A
i
∪ B
i
= S. Also, A
i
and B
i
are
mutually exclusive if A
i
∩ B
i
= φ. Since we have written down each pair A
i
and B
i
above,
we can simply check for these properties.
The pair A
1
and B
1
are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. The pair A
2
and
B
2
are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. The pair A
3
and B
3
are mutually
exclusive but not collectively exhaustive. The pair A
4
and B
4
are not mutually exclusive
since dvd belongs to A
4
and B
4
. However, A
4
and B
4
are collectively exhaustive.
2
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 1.3
There are exactly 50 equally likely outcomes: s
51
through s
100
. Each of these outcomes
has probability 0.02.
(1) P[{s
79
}] = 0.02
(2) P[{s
100
}] = 0.02
(3) P[A] = P[{s
90
, . . . , s
100
}] = 11 ×0.02 = 0.22
(4) P[F] = P[{s
51
, . . . , s
59
}] = 9 ×0.02 = 0.18
(5) P[T ≥ 80] = P[{s
80
, . . . , s
100
}] = 21 ×0.02 = 0.42
(6) P[T < 90] = P[{s
51
, s
52
, . . . , s
89
}] = 39 ×0.02 = 0.78
(7) P[a C grade or better] = P[{s
70
, . . . , s
100
}] = 31 ×0.02 = 0.62
(8) P[student passes] = P[{s
60
, . . . , s
100
}] = 41 ×0.02 = 0.82
Quiz 1.4
We can describe this experiment by the event space consisting of the four possible
events V B, V L, DB, and DL. We represent these events in the table:
V D
L 0.35 ?
B ? ?
In a roundabout way, the problem statement tells us how to fill in the table. In particular,
P [V] = 0.7 = P [V L] + P [V B] (1)
P [L] = 0.6 = P [V L] + P [DL] (2)
Since P[V L] = 0.35, we can conclude that P[V B] = 0.35 and that P[DL] = 0.6 −
0.35 = 0.25. This allows us to fill in two more table entries:
V D
L 0.35 0.25
B 0.35 ?
The remaining table entry is filled in by observing that the probabilities must sum to 1.
This implies P[DB] = 0.05 and the complete table is
V D
L 0.35 0.25
B 0.35 0.05
Finding the various probabilities is now straightforward:
3
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(1) P[DL] = 0.25
(2) P[D ∪ L] = P[V L] + P[DL] + P[DB] = 0.35 +0.25 +0.05 = 0.65.
(3) P[V B] = 0.35
(4) P[V ∪ L] = P[V] + P[L] − P[V L] = 0.7 +0.6 −0.35 = 0.95
(5) P[V ∪ D] = P[S] = 1
(6) P[LB] = P[LL
c
] = 0
Quiz 1.5
(1) The probability of exactly two voice calls is
P [N
V
= 2] = P [{vvd, vdv, dvv}] = 0.3 (1)
(2) The probability of at least one voice call is
P [N
V
≥ 1] = P [{vdd, dvd, ddv, vvd, vdv, dvv, vvv}] (2)
= 6(0.1) +0.2 = 0.8 (3)
An easier way to get the same answer is to observe that
P [N
V
≥ 1] = 1 − P [N
V
< 1] = 1 − P [N
V
= 0] = 1 − P [{ddd}] = 0.8 (4)
(3) The conditional probability of two voice calls followed by a data call given that there
were two voice calls is
P [{vvd} |N
V
= 2] =
P [{vvd} , N
V
= 2]
P [N
V
= 2]
=
P [{vvd}]
P [N
V
= 2]
=
0.1
0.3
=
1
3
(5)
(4) The conditional probability of two data calls followed by a voice call given there
were two voice calls is
P [{ddv} |N
V
= 2] =
P [{ddv} , N
V
= 2]
P [N
V
= 2]
= 0 (6)
The joint event of the outcome ddv and exactly two voice calls has probability zero
since there is only one voice call in the outcome ddv.
(5) The conditional probability of exactly two voice calls given at least one voice call is
P [N
V
= 2|N
v
≥ 1] =
P [N
V
= 2, N
V
≥ 1]
P [N
V
≥ 1]
=
P [N
V
= 2]
P [N
V
≥ 1]
=
0.3
0.8
=
3
8
(7)
(6) The conditional probability of at least one voice call given there were exactly two
voice calls is
P [N
V
≥ 1|N
V
= 2] =
P [N
V
≥ 1, N
V
= 2]
P [N
V
= 2]
=
P [N
V
= 2]
P [N
V
= 2]
= 1 (8)
Given that there were two voice calls, there must have been at least one voice call.
4
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 1.6
In this experiment, there are four outcomes with probabilities
P[{vv}] = (0.8)
2
= 0.64 P[{vd}] = (0.8)(0.2) = 0.16
P[{dv}] = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16 P[{dd}] = (0.2)
2
= 0.04
When checking the independence of any two events A and B, it’s wise to avoid intuition
and simply check whether P[AB] = P[A]P[B]. Using the probabilities of the outcomes,
we now can test for the independence of events.
(1) First, we calculate the probability of the joint event:
P [N
V
= 2, N
V
≥ 1] = P [N
V
= 2] = P [{vv}] = 0.64 (1)
Next, we observe that
P [N
V
≥ 1] = P [{vd, dv, vv}] = 0.96 (2)
Finally, we make the comparison
P [N
V
= 2] P [N
V
≥ 1] = (0.64)(0.96) = P [N
V
= 2, N
V
≥ 1] (3)
which shows the two events are dependent.
(2) The probability of the joint event is
P [N
V
≥ 1, C
1
= v] = P [{vd, vv}] = 0.80 (4)
From part (a), P[N
V
≥ 1] = 0.96. Further, P[C
1
= v] = 0.8 so that
P [N
V
≥ 1] P [C
1
= v] = (0.96)(0.8) = 0.768 = P [N
V
≥ 1, C
1
= v] (5)
Hence, the events are dependent.
(3) The problem statement that the calls were independent implies that the events the
second call is a voice call, {C
2
= v}, and the first call is a data call, {C
1
= d} are
independent events. Just to be sure, we can do the calculations to check:
P [C
1
= d, C
2
= v] = P [{dv}] = 0.16 (6)
Since P[C
1
= d]P[C
2
= v] = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16, we confirm that the events are
independent. Note that this shouldn’t be surprising since we used the information that
the calls were independent in the problem statement to determine the probabilities of
the outcomes.
(4) The probability of the joint event is
P [C
2
= v, N
V
is even] = P [{vv}] = 0.64 (7)
Also, each event has probability
P [C
2
= v] = P [{dv, vv}] = 0.8, P [N
V
is even] = P [{dd, vv}] = 0.68 (8)
Thus, P[C
2
= v]P[N
V
is even] = (0.8)(0.68) = 0.544. Since P[C
2
= v, N
V
is even] =
0.544, the events are dependent.
5
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 1.7
Let F
i
denote the event that that the user is found on page i . The tree for the experiment
is
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
F
1
0.8
F
c
1
0.2
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
F
2
0.8
F
c
2
0.2
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
F
3
0.8
F
c
3
0.2
The user is found unless all three paging attempts fail. Thus the probability the user is
found is
P [F] = 1 − P
_
F
c
1
F
c
2
F
c
3
_
= 1 −(0.2)
3
= 0.992 (1)
Quiz 1.8
(1) We can view choosing each bit in the code word as a subexperiment. Each subex-
periment has two possible outcomes: 0 and 1. Thus by the fundamental principle of
counting, there are 2 ×2 ×2 ×2 = 2
4
= 16 possible code words.
(2) An experiment that can yield all possible code words with two zeroes is to choose
which 2 bits (out of 4 bits) will be zero. The other two bits then must be ones. There
are
_
4
2
_
= 6 ways to do this. Hence, there are six code words with exactly two zeroes.
For this problem, it is also possible to simply enumerate the six code words:
1100, 1010, 1001, 0101, 0110, 0011.
(3) When the first bit must be a zero, then the first subexperiment of choosing the first
bit has only one outcome. For each of the next three bits, we have two choices. In
this case, there are 1 ×2 ×2 ×2 = 8 ways of choosing a code word.
(4) For the constant ratio code, we can specify a code word by choosing M of the bits to
be ones. The other N −M bits will be zeroes. The number of ways of choosing such
a code word is
_
N
M
_
. For N = 8 and M = 3, there are
_
8
3
_
= 56 code words.
Quiz 1.9
(1) In this problem, k bits received in error is the same as k failures in 100 trials. The
failure probability is = 1 − p and the success probability is 1 − = p. That is, the
probability of k bits in error and 100 −k correctly received bits is
P
_
S
k,100−k
_
=
_
100
k
_

k
(1 −)
100−k
(1)
6
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
For = 0.01,
P
_
S
0,100
_
= (1 −)
100
= (0.99)
100
= 0.3660 (2)
P
_
S
1,99
_
= 100(0.01)(0.99)
99
= 0.3700 (3)
P
_
S
2,98
_
= 4950(0.01)
2
(0.99)
9
8 = 0.1849 (4)
P
_
S
3,97
_
= 161, 700(0.01)
3
(0.99)
97
= 0.0610 (5)
(2) The probability a packet is decoded correctly is just
P [C] = P
_
S
0,100
_
+ P
_
S
1,99
_
+ P
_
S
2,98
_
+ P
_
S
3,97
_
= 0.9819 (6)
Quiz 1.10
Since the chip works only if all n transistors work, the transistors in the chip are like
devices in series. The probability that a chip works is P[C] = p
n
.
The module works if either 8 chips work or 9 chips work. Let C
k
denote the event that
exactly k chips work. Since transistor failures are independent of each other, chip failures
are also independent. Thus each P[C
k
] has the binomial probability
P [C
8
] =
_
9
8
_
(P [C])
8
(1 − P [C])
9−8
= 9p
8n
(1 − p
n
), (1)
P [C
9
] = (P [C])
9
= p
9n
. (2)
The probability a memory module works is
P [M] = P [C
8
] + P [C
9
] = p
8n
(9 −8p
n
) (3)
Quiz 1.11
R=rand(1,100);
X=(R<= 0.4) ...
+ (2*(R>0.4).*(R<=0.9)) ...
+ (3*(R>0.9));
Y=hist(X,1:3)
For a MATLAB simulation, we first gen-
erate a vector R of 100 random numbers.
Second, we generate vector X as a func-
tion of R to represent the 3 possible out-
comes of a flip. That is, X(i)=1 if flip i
was heads, X(i)=2 if flip i was tails, and
X(i)=3) is flip i landed on the edge.
To see how this works, we note there are three cases:
• If R(i) <= 0.4, then X(i)=1.
• If 0.4 < R(i) and R(i)<=0.9, then X(i)=2.
• If 0.9 < R(i), then X(i)=3.
These three cases will have probabilities 0.4, 0.5 and 0.1. Lastly, we use the hist function
to count how many occurences of each possible value of X(i).
7
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 2
Quiz 2.1
The sample space, probabilities and corresponding grades for the experiment are
Outcome P[·] G
BB 0.36 3.0
BC 0.24 2.5
CB 0.24 2.5
CC 0.16 2
Quiz 2.2
(1) To find c, we recall that the PMF must sum to 1. That is,
3

n=1
P
N
(n) = c
_
1 +
1
2
+
1
3
_
= 1 (1)
This implies c = 6/11. Now that we have found c, the remaining parts are straight-
forward.
(2) P[N = 1] = P
N
(1) = c = 6/11
(3) P[N ≥ 2] = P
N
(2) + P
N
(3) = c/2 +c/3 = 5/11
(4) P[N > 3] =


n=4
P
N
(n) = 0
Quiz 2.3
Decoding each transmitted bit is an independent trial where we call a bit error a “suc-
cess.” Each bit is in error, that is, the trial is a success, with probability p. Now we can
interpret each experiment in the generic context of independent trials.
(1) The random variable X is the number of trials up to and including the first success.
Similar to Example 2.11, X has the geometric PMF
P
X
(x) =
_
p(1 − p)
x−1
x = 1, 2, . . .
0 otherwise
(1)
(2) If p = 0.1, then the probability exactly 10 bits are sent is
P [X = 10] = P
X
(10) = (0.1)(0.9)
9
= 0.0387 (2)
8
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
The probability that at least 10 bits are sent is P[X ≥ 10] =


x=10
P
X
(x). This
sum is not too hard to calculate. However, its even easier to observe that X ≥ 10 if
the first 10 bits are transmitted correctly. That is,
P [X ≥ 10] = P [first 10 bits are correct] = (1 − p)
10
(3)
For p = 0.1, P[X ≥ 10] = 0.9
10
= 0.3487.
(3) The random variable Y is the number of successes in 100 independent trials. Just as
in Example 2.13, Y has the binomial PMF
P
Y
(y) =
_
100
y
_
p
y
(1 − p)
100−y
(4)
If p = 0.01, the probability of exactly 2 errors is
P [Y = 2] = P
Y
(2) =
_
100
2
_
(0.01)
2
(0.99)
98
= 0.1849 (5)
(4) The probability of no more than 2 errors is
P [Y ≤ 2] = P
Y
(0) + P
Y
(1) + P
Y
(2) (6)
= (0.99)
100
+100(0.01)(0.99)
99
+
_
100
2
_
(0.01)
2
(0.99)
98
(7)
= 0.9207 (8)
(5) Random variable Z is the number of trials up to and including the third success. Thus
Z has the Pascal PMF (see Example 2.15)
P
Z
(z) =
_
z −1
2
_
p
3
(1 − p)
z−3
(9)
Note that P
Z
(z) > 0 for z = 3, 4, 5, . . ..
(6) If p = 0.25, the probability that the third error occurs on bit 12 is
P
Z
(12) =
_
11
2
_
(0.25)
3
(0.75)
9
= 0.0645 (10)
Quiz 2.4
Each of these probabilities can be read off the CDF F
Y
(y). However, we must keep in
mind that when F
Y
(y) has a discontinuity at y
0
, F
Y
(y) takes the upper value F
Y
(y
+
0
).
(1) P[Y < 1] = F
Y
(1

) = 0
9
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) P[Y ≤ 1] = F
Y
(1) = 0.6
(3) P[Y > 2] = 1 − P[Y ≤ 2] = 1 − F
Y
(2) = 1 −0.8 = 0.2
(4) P[Y ≥ 2] = 1 − P[Y < 2] = 1 − F
Y
(2

) = 1 −0.6 = 0.4
(5) P[Y = 1] = P[Y ≤ 1] − P[Y < 1] = F
Y
(1
+
) − F
Y
(1

) = 0.6
(6) P[Y = 3] = P[Y ≤ 3] − P[Y < 3] = F
Y
(3
+
) − F
Y
(3

) = 0.8 −0.8 = 0
Quiz 2.5
(1) With probability 0.7, a call is a voice call and C = 25. Otherwise, with probability
0.3, we have a data call and C = 40. This corresponds to the PMF
P
C
(c) =



0.7 c = 25
0.3 c = 40
0 otherwise
(1)
(2) The expected value of C is
E [C] = 25(0.7) +40(0.3) = 29.5 cents (2)
Quiz 2.6
(1) As a function of N, the cost T is
T = 25N +40(3 − N) = 120 −15N (1)
(2) To find the PMF of T, we can draw the following tree:
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
¨
N=0
0.1
r
r
r
r
r
r
r
N=3
0.3
$
$
$
$
$
$
$N=1 0.3
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ
N=2 0.3
•T=120
•T=105
•T=90
•T=75
From the tree, we can write down the PMF of T:
P
T
(t ) =



0.3 t = 75, 90, 105
0.1 t = 120
0 otherwise
(2)
From the PMF P
T
(t ), the expected value of T is
E [T] = 75P
T
(75) +90P
T
(90) +105P
T
(105) +120P
T
(120) (3)
= (75 +90 +105)(0.3) +120(0.1) = 62 (4)
10
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 2.7
(1) Using Definition 2.14, the expected number of applications is
E [A] =
4

a=1
aP
A
(a) = 1(0.4) +2(0.3) +3(0.2) +4(0.1) = 2 (1)
(2) The number of memory chips is M = g(A) where
g(A) =



4 A = 1, 2
6 A = 3
8 A = 4
(2)
(3) By Theorem 2.10, the expected number of memory chips is
E [M] =
4

a=1
g(A)P
A
(a) = 4(0.4) +4(0.3) +6(0.2) +8(0.1) = 4.8 (3)
Since E[A] = 2, g(E[A]) = g(2) = 4. However, E[M] = 4.8 = g(E[A]). The two
quantities are different because g(A) is not of the form αA +β.
Quiz 2.8
The PMF P
N
(n) allows to calculate each of the desired quantities.
(1) The expected value of N is
E [N] =
2

n=0
nP
N
(n) = 0(0.1) +1(0.4) +2(0.5) = 1.4 (1)
(2) The second moment of N is
E
_
N
2
_
=
2

n=0
n
2
P
N
(n) = 0
2
(0.1) +1
2
(0.4) +2
2
(0.5) = 2.4 (2)
(3) The variance of N is
Var[N] = E
_
N
2
_
−(E [N])
2
= 2.4 −(1.4)
2
= 0.44 (3)
(4) The standard deviation is σ
N
=

Var[N] =

0.44 = 0.663.
11
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 2.9
(1) From the problem statement, we learn that the conditional PMF of N given the event
I is
P
N|I
(n) =
_
0.02 n = 1, 2, . . . , 50
0 otherwise
(1)
(2) Also from the problem statement, the conditional PMF of N given the event T is
P
N|T
(n) =
_
0.2 n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0 otherwise
(2)
(3) The problem statement tells us that P[T] = 1 − P[I ] = 3/4. From Theorem 1.10
(the law of total probability), we find the PMF of N is
P
N
(n) = P
N|T
(n) P [T] + P
N|I
(n) P [I ] (3)
=



0.2(0.75) +0.02(0.25) n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0(0.75) +0.02(0.25) n = 6, 7, . . . , 50
0 otherwise
(4)
=



0.155 n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0.005 n = 6, 7, . . . , 50
0 otherwise
(5)
(4) First we find
P [N ≤ 10] =
10

n=1
P
N
(n) = (0.155)(5) +(0.005)(5) = 0.80 (6)
By Theorem 2.17, the conditional PMF of N given N ≤ 10 is
P
N|N≤10
(n) =
_
P
N
(n)
P[N≤10]
n ≤ 10
0 otherwise
(7)
=



0.155/0.8 n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0.005/0.8 n = 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
0 otherwise
(8)
=



0.19375 n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0.00625 n = 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
0 otherwise
(9)
(5) Once we have the conditional PMF, calculating conditional expectations is easy.
E [N|N ≤ 10] =

n
nP
N|N≤10
(n) (10)
=
5

n=1
n(0.19375) +
10

n=6
n(0.00625) (11)
= 3.15625 (12)
12
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
0 50 100
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 500 1000
0
2
4
6
8
10
(a) samplemean(100) (b) samplemean(1000)
Figure 1: Two examples of the output of samplemean(k)
(6) To find the conditional variance, we first find the conditional second moment
E
_
N
2
|N ≤ 10
_
=

n
n
2
P
N|N≤10
(n) (13)
=
5

n=1
n
2
(0.19375) +
10

n=6
n
2
(0.00625) (14)
= 55(0.19375) +330(0.00625) = 12.71875 (15)
The conditional variance is
Var[N|N ≤ 10] = E
_
N
2
|N ≤ 10
_
−(E [N|N ≤ 10])
2
(16)
= 12.71875 −(3.15625)
2
= 2.75684 (17)
Quiz 2.10
The function samplemean(k) generates and plots five m
n
sequences for n = 1, 2, . . . , k.
The i th column M(:,i) of M holds a sequence m
1
, m
2
, . . . , m
k
.
function M=samplemean(k);
K=(1:k)’;
M=zeros(k,5);
for i=1:5,
X=duniformrv(0,10,k);
M(:,i)=cumsum(X)./K;
end;
plot(K,M);
Examples of the function calls (a) samplemean(100) and (b) samplemean(1000)
are shown in Figure 1. Each time samplemean(k) is called produces a random output.
What is observed in these figures is that for small n, m
n
is fairly random but as n gets
13
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
large, m
n
gets close to E[X] = 5. Although each sequence m
1
, m
2
, . . . that we generate is
random, the sequences always converges to E[X]. This random convergence is analyzed
in Chapter 7.
14
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 3
Quiz 3.1
The CDF of Y is
0 2 4
0
0.5
1
y
F
Y
(
y
)
F
Y
(y) =



0 y < 0
y/4 0 ≤ y ≤ 4
1 y > 4
(1)
From the CDF F
Y
(y), we can calculate the probabilities:
(1) P[Y ≤ −1] = F
Y
(−1) = 0
(2) P[Y ≤ 1] = F
Y
(1) = 1/4
(3) P[2 < Y ≤ 3] = F
Y
(3) − F
Y
(2) = 3/4 −2/4 = 1/4
(4) P[Y > 1.5] = 1 − P[Y ≤ 1.5] = 1 − F
Y
(1.5) = 1 −(1.5)/4 = 5/8
Quiz 3.2
(1) First we will find the constant c and then we will sketch the PDF. To find c, we use
the fact that
_

−∞
f
X
(x) dx = 1. We will evaluate this integral using integration by
parts:
_

−∞
f
X
(x) dx =
_

0
cxe
−x/2
dx (1)
= −2cxe
−x/2
¸
¸
¸

0
. ,, .
=0
+
_

0
2ce
−x/2
dx (2)
= −4ce
−x/2
¸
¸
¸

0
= 4c (3)
Thus c = 1/4 and X has the Erlang (n = 2, λ = 1/2) PDF
0 5 10 15
0
0.1
0.2
x
f
X
(
x
)
f
X
(x) =
_
(x/4)e
−x/2
x ≥ 0
0 otherwise
(4)
15
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) To find the CDF F
X
(x), we first note X is a nonnegative random variable so that
F
X
(x) = 0 for all x < 0. For x ≥ 0,
F
X
(x) =
_
x
0
f
X
(y) dy =
_
x
0
y
4
e
−y/2
dy (5)
= −
y
2
e
−y/2
¸
¸
¸
x
0

_
x
0

1
2
e
−y/2
dy (6)
= 1 −
x
2
e
−x/2
−e
−x/2
(7)
The complete expression for the CDF is
0 5 10 15
0
0.5
1
x
F
X
(
x
)
F
X
(x) =
_
1 −
_
x
2
+1
_
e
−x/2
x ≥ 0
0 otherwise
(8)
(3) From the CDF F
X
(x),
P [0 ≤ X ≤ 4] = F
X
(4) − F
X
(0) = 1 −3e
−2
. (9)
(4) Similarly,
P [−2 ≤ X ≤ 2] = F
X
(2) − F
X
(−2) = 1 −3e
−1
. (10)
Quiz 3.3
The PDF of Y is
−2 0 2
0
1
2
3
y
f
Y
(
y
)
f
Y
(y) =
_
3y
2
/2 −1 ≤ y ≤ 1,
0 otherwise.
(1)
(1) The expected value of Y is
E [Y] =
_

−∞
y f
Y
(y) dy =
_
1
−1
(3/2)y
3
dy = (3/8)y
4
¸
¸
¸
1
−1
= 0. (2)
Note that the above calculation wasn’t really necessary because E[Y] = 0 whenever
the PDF f
Y
(y) is an even function (i.e., f
Y
(y) = f
Y
(−y)).
(2) The second moment of Y is
E
_
Y
2
_
=
_

−∞
y
2
f
Y
(y) dy =
_
1
−1
(3/2)y
4
dy = (3/10)y
5
¸
¸
¸
1
−1
= 3/5. (3)
16
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(3) The variance of Y is
Var[Y] = E
_
Y
2
_
−(E [Y])
2
= 3/5. (4)
(4) The standard deviation of Y is σ
Y
=

Var[Y] =

3/5.
Quiz 3.4
(1) When X is an exponential (λ) random variable, E[X] = 1/λ and Var[X] = 1/λ
2
.
Since E[X] = 3 and Var[X] = 9, we must have λ = 1/3. The PDF of X is
f
X
(x) =
_
(1/3)e
−x/3
x ≥ 0,
0 otherwise.
(1)
(2) We know X is a uniform (a, b) random variable. To find a and b, we apply Theo-
rem 3.6 to write
E [X] =
a +b
2
= 3 Var[X] =
(b −a)
2
12
= 9. (2)
This implies
a +b = 6, b −a = ±6

3. (3)
The only valid solution with a < b is
a = 3 −3

3, b = 3 +3

3. (4)
The complete expression for the PDF of X is
f
X
(x) =
_
1/(6

3) 3 −3

3 ≤ x < 3 +3

3,
0 otherwise.
(5)
Quiz 3.5
Each of the requested probabilities can be calculated using (z) function and Table 3.1
or Q(z) and Table 3.2. We start with the sketches.
(1) The PDFs of X and Y are shown below. The fact that Y has twice the standard
deviation of X is reflected in the greater spread of f
Y
(y). However, it is important
to remember that as the standard deviation increases, the peak value of the Gaussian
PDF goes down.
−5 0 5
0
0.2
0.4
x y
f
X
(
x
)









f
Y
(
y
)
← f
X
(x)
← f
Y
(y)
17
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) Since X is Gaussian (0, 1),
P [−1 < X ≤ 1] = F
X
(1) − F
X
(−1) (1)
= (1) −(−1) = 2(1) −1 = 0.6826. (2)
(3) Since Y is Gaussian (0, 2),
P [−1 < Y ≤ 1] = F
Y
(1) − F
Y
(−1) (3)
=
_
1
σ
Y
_

_
−1
σ
Y
_
= 2
_
1
2
_
−1 = 0.383. (4)
(4) Again, since X is Gaussian (0, 1), P[X > 3.5] = Q(3.5) = 2.33 ×10
−4
.
(5) Since Y is Gaussian (0, 2), P[Y > 3.5] = Q(
3.5
2
) = Q(1.75) = 1 − (1.75) =
0.0401.
Quiz 3.6
The CDF of X is
−2 0 2
0
0.5
1
x
F
X
(
x
)
F
X
(x) =



0 x < −1,
(x +1)/4 −1 ≤ x < 1,
1 x ≥ 1.
(1)
The following probabilities can be read directly from the CDF:
(1) P[X ≤ 1] = F
X
(1) = 1.
(2) P[X < 1] = F
X
(1

) = 1/2.
(3) P[X = 1] = F
X
(1
+
) − F
X
(1

) = 1 −1/2 = 1/2.
(4) We find the PDF f
Y
(y) by taking the derivative of F
Y
(y). The resulting PDF is
−2 0 2
0
0.5
x
f
X
(
x
)
0.5
f
X
(x) =



1/4 −1 ≤ x < 1,
(1/2)δ(x −1) x = 1,
0 otherwise.
(2)
Quiz 3.7
18
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(1) Since X is always nonnegative, F
X
(x) = 0 for x < 0. Also, F
X
(x) = 1 for x ≥ 2
since its always true that x ≤ 2. Lastly, for 0 ≤ x ≤ 2,
F
X
(x) =
_
x
−∞
f
X
(y) dy =
_
x
0
(1 − y/2) dy = x − x
2
/4. (1)
The complete CDF of X is
−1 0 1 2 3
0
0.5
1
x
F
X
(
x
)
F
X
(x) =



0 x < 0,
x − x
2
/4 0 ≤ x ≤ 2,
1 x > 2.
(2)
(2) The probability that Y = 1 is
P [Y = 1] = P [X ≥ 1] = 1 − F
X
(1) = 1 −3/4 = 1/4. (3)
(3) Since X is nonnegative, Y is also nonnegative. Thus F
Y
(y) = 0 for y < 0. Also,
because Y ≤ 1, F
Y
(y) = 1 for all y ≥ 1. Finally, for 0 < y < 1,
F
Y
(y) = P [Y ≤ y] = P [X ≤ y] = F
X
(y) . (4)
Using the CDF F
X
(x), the complete expression for the CDF of Y is
−1 0 1 2 3
0
0.5
1
y
F
Y
(
y
)
F
Y
(y) =



0 y < 0,
y − y
2
/4 0 ≤ y < 1,
1 y ≥ 1.
(5)
As expected, we see that the jump in F
Y
(y) at y = 1 is exactly equal to P[Y = 1].
(4) By taking the derivative of F
Y
(y), we obtain the PDF f
Y
(y). Note that when y < 0
or y > 1, the PDF is zero.
−1 0 1 2 3
0
0.5
1
1.5
y
f
Y
(
y
)
0.25
f
Y
(y) =
_
1 − y/2 +(1/4)δ(y −1) 0 ≤ y ≤ 1
0 otherwise
(6)
Quiz 3.8
(1) P[Y ≤ 6] =
_
6
−∞
f
Y
(y) dy =
_
6
0
(1/10) dy = 0.6 .
19
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) From Definition 3.15, the conditional PDF of Y given Y ≤ 6 is
f
Y|Y≤6
(y) =
_
f
Y
(y)
P[Y≤6]
y ≤ 6,
0 otherwise,
=
_
1/6 0 ≤ y ≤ 6,
0 otherwise.
(1)
(3) The probability Y > 8 is
P [Y > 8] =
_
10
8
1
10
dy = 0.2 . (2)
(4) From Definition 3.15, the conditional PDF of Y given Y > 8 is
f
Y|Y>8
(y) =
_
f
Y
(y)
P[Y>8]
y > 8,
0 otherwise,
=
_
1/2 8 < y ≤ 10,
0 otherwise.
(3)
(5) From the conditional PDF f
Y|Y≤6
(y), we can calculate the conditional expectation
E [Y|Y ≤ 6] =
_

−∞
y f
Y|Y≤6
(y) dy =
_
6
0
y
6
dy = 3. (4)
(6) From the conditional PDF f
Y|Y>8
(y), we can calculate the conditional expectation
E [Y|Y > 8] =
_

−∞
y f
Y|Y>8
(y) dy =
_
10
8
y
2
dy = 9. (5)
Quiz 3.9
A natural way to produce random variables with PDF f
T|T>2
(t ) is to generate samples
of T with PDF f
T
(t ) and then to discard those samples which fail to satisfy the condition
T > 2. Here is a MATLAB function that uses this method:
function t=t2rv(m)
i=0;lambda=1/3;
t=zeros(m,1);
while (i<m),
x=exponentialrv(lambda,1);
if (x>2)
t(i+1)=x;
i=i+1;
end
end
A second method exploits the fact that if T is an exponential (λ) random variable, then
T

= T +2 has PDF f
T
(t ) = f
T|T>2
(t ). In this case the command
t=2.0+exponentialrv(1/3,m)
generates the vector t.
20
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 4
Quiz 4.1
Each value of the joint CDF can be found by considering the corresponding probability.
(1) F
X,Y
(−∞, 2) = P[X ≤ −∞, Y ≤ 2] ≤ P[X ≤ −∞] = 0 since X cannot take on
the value −∞.
(2) F
X,Y
(∞, ∞) = P[X ≤ ∞, Y ≤ ∞] = 1. This result is given in Theorem 4.1.
(3) F
X,Y
(∞, y) = P[X ≤ ∞, Y ≤ y] = P[Y ≤ y] = F
Y
(y).
(4) F
X,Y
(∞, −∞) = P[X ≤ ∞, Y ≤ −∞] = 0 since Y cannot take on the value −∞.
Quiz 4.2
From the joint PMF of Q and G given in the table, we can calculate the requested
probabilities by summing the PMF over those values of Q and G that correspond to the
event.
(1) The probability that Q = 0 is
P [Q = 0] = P
Q,G
(0, 0) + P
Q,G
(0, 1) + P
Q,G
(0, 2) + P
Q,G
(0, 3) (1)
= 0.06 +0.18 +0.24 +0.12 = 0.6 (2)
(2) The probability that Q = G is
P [Q = G] = P
Q,G
(0, 0) + P
Q,G
(1, 1) = 0.18 (3)
(3) The probability that G > 1 is
P [G > 1] =
3

g=2
1

q=0
P
Q,G
(q, g) (4)
= 0.24 +0.16 +0.12 +0.08 = 0.6 (5)
(4) The probability that G > Q is
P [G > Q] =
1

q=0
3

g=q+1
P
Q,G
(q, g) (6)
= 0.18 +0.24 +0.12 +0.16 +0.08 = 0.78 (7)
21
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 4.3
By Theorem 4.3, the marginal PMF of H is
P
H
(h) =

b=0,2,4
P
H,B
(h, b) (1)
For each value of h, this corresponds to calculating the row sum across the table of the joint
PMF. Similarly, the marginal PMF of B is
P
B
(b) =
1

h=−1
P
H,B
(h, b) (2)
For each value of b, this corresponds to the column sum down the table of the joint PMF.
The easiest way to calculate these marginal PMFs is to simply sum each row and column:
P
H,B
(h, b) b = 0 b = 2 b = 4 P
H
(h)
h = −1 0 0.4 0.2 0.6
h = 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
h = 1 0.1 0.1 0 0.2
P
B
(b) 0.2 0.5 0.3
(3)
Quiz 4.4
To find the constant c, we apply
_

−∞
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dx dy = 1. Specifically,
_

−∞
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dx dy =
_
2
0
_
1
0
cxy dx dy (1)
= c
_
2
0
y
_
x
2
/2
¸
¸
¸
1
0
_
dy (2)
= (c/2)
_
2
0
y dy = (c/4)y
2
¸
¸
¸
2
0
= c (3)
Thus c = 1. To calculate P[A], we write
P [A] =
__
A
f
X,Y
(x, y) dx dy (4)
To integrate over A, we convert to polar coordinates using the substitutions x = r cos θ,
y = r sin θ and dx dy = r dr dθ, yielding
Y
X
1
1
2
A
P [A] =
_
π/2
0
_
1
0
r
2
sin θ cos θ r dr dθ (5)
=
_
_
1
0
r
3
dr
__
_
π/2
0
sin θ cos θ dθ
_
(6)
=
_
r
4
/4
¸
¸
¸
1
0
_


sin
2
θ
2
¸
¸
¸
¸
¸
π/2
0


= 1/8 (7)
22
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 4.5
By Theorem 4.8, the marginal PDF of X is
f
X
(x) =
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dy (1)
For x < 0 or x > 1, f
X
(x) = 0. For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1,
f
X
(x) =
6
5
_
1
0
(x + y
2
) dy =
6
5
_
xy + y
3
/3

¸
¸
y=1
y=0
=
6
5
(x +1/3) =
6x +2
5
(2)
The complete expression for the PDf of X is
f
X
(x) =
_
(6x +2)/5 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
0 otherwise
(3)
By the same method we obtain the marginal PDF for Y. For 0 ≤ y ≤ 1,
f
Y
(y) =
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dy (4)
=
6
5
_
1
0
(x + y
2
) dx =
6
5
_
x
2
/2 + xy
2

¸
¸
x=1
x=0
=
6
5
(1/2 + y
2
) =
3 +6y
2
5
(5)
Since f
Y
(y) = 0 for y < 0 or y > 1, the complete expression for the PDF of Y is
f
Y
(y) =
_
(3 +6y
2
)/5 0 ≤ y ≤ 1
0 otherwise
(6)
Quiz 4.6
(A) The time required for the transfer is T = L/B. For each pair of values of L and B,
we can calculate the time T needed for the transfer. We can write these down on the
table for the joint PMF of L and B as follows:
P
L,B
(l, b) b = 14, 400 b = 21, 600 b = 28, 800
l = 518, 400 0.20 (T=36) 0.10 (T=24) 0.05 (T=18)
l = 2, 592, 000 0.05 (T=180) 0.10 (T=120) 0.20 (T=90)
l = 7, 776, 000 0.00 (T=540) 0.10 (T=360) 0.20 (T=270)
From the table, writing down the PMF of T is straightforward.
P
T
(t ) =























0.05 t = 18
0.1 t = 24
0.2 t = 36, 90
0.1 t = 120
0.05 t = 180
0.2 t = 270
0.1 t = 360
0 otherwise
(1)
23
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(B) First, we observe that since 0 ≤ X ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ Y ≤ 1, W = XY satisfies
0 ≤ W ≤ 1. Thus f
W
(0) = 0 and f
W
(1) = 1. For 0 < w < 1, we calculate the
CDF F
W
(w) = P[W ≤ w]. As shown below, integrating over the region W ≤ w
is fairly complex. The calculus is simpler if we integrate over the region XY > w.
Specifically,
Y
X
1
1
XY > w
w
w
XY = w
F
W
(w) = 1 − P [XY > w] (2)
= 1 −
_
1
w
_
1
w/x
dy dx (3)
= 1 −
_
1
w
(1 −w/x) dx (4)
= 1 −
_
x −wln x|
x=1
x=w
_
(5)
= 1 −(1 −w +wln w) = w −wln w (6)
The complete expression for the CDF is
F
W
(w) =



0 w < 0
w −wln w 0 ≤ w ≤ 1
1 w > 1
(7)
By taking the derivative of the CDF, we find the PDF is
f
W
(w) =
d F
W
(w)
dw
=



0 w < 0
−ln w 0 ≤ w ≤ 1
0 w > 1
(8)
Quiz 4.7
(A) It is helpful to first make a table that includes the marginal PMFs.
P
L,T
(l, t ) t = 40 t = 60 P
L
(l)
l = 1 0.15 0.1 0.25
l = 2 0.3 0.2 0.5
l = 3 0.15 0.1 0.25
P
T
(t ) 0.6 0.4
(1) The expected value of L is
E [L] = 1(0.25) +2(0.5) +3(0.25) = 2. (1)
Since the second moment of L is
E
_
L
2
_
= 1
2
(0.25) +2
2
(0.5) +3
2
(0.25) = 4.5, (2)
the variance of L is
Var [L] = E
_
L
2
_
−(E [L])
2
= 0.5. (3)
24
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) The expected value of T is
E [T] = 40(0.6) +60(0.4) = 48. (4)
The second moment of T is
E
_
T
2
_
= 40
2
(0.6) +60
2
(0.4) = 2400. (5)
Thus
Var[T] = E
_
T
2
_
−(E [T])
2
= 2400 −48
2
= 96. (6)
(3) The correlation is
E [LT] =

t =40,60
3

l=1
lt P
LT
(lt ) (7)
= 1(40)(0.15) +2(40)(0.3) +3(40)(0.15) (8)
+1(60)(0.1) +2(60)(0.2) +3(60)(0.1) (9)
= 96 (10)
(4) From Theorem 4.16(a), the covariance of L and T is
Cov [L, T] = E [LT] − E [L] E [T] = 96 −2(48) = 0 (11)
(5) Since Cov[L, T] = 0, the correlation coefficient is ρ
L,T
= 0.
(B) As in the discrete case, the calculations become easier if we first calculate the marginal
PDFs f
X
(x) and f
Y
(y). For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1,
f
X
(x) =
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dy =
_
2
0
xy dy =
1
2
xy
2
¸
¸
¸
¸
y=2
y=0
= 2x (12)
Similarly, for 0 ≤ y ≤ 2,
f
Y
(y) =
_

−∞
f
X,Y
(x, y) dx =
_
2
0
xy dx =
1
2
x
2
y
¸
¸
¸
¸
x=1
x=0
=
y
2
(13)
The complete expressions for the marginal PDFs are
f
X
(x) =
_
2x 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
0 otherwise
f
Y
(y) =
_
y/2 0 ≤ y ≤ 2
0 otherwise
(14)
From the marginal PDFs, it is straightforward to calculate the various expectations.
25
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(1) The first and second moments of X are
E [X] =
_

−∞
x f
X
(x) dx =
_
1
0
2x
2
dx =
2
3
(15)
E
_
X
2
_
=
_

−∞
x
2
f
X
(x) dx =
_
1
0
2x
3
dx =
1
2
(16)
(17)
The variance of X is Var[X] = E[X
2
] −(E[X])
2
= 1/18.
(2) The first and second moments of Y are
E [Y] =
_

−∞
y f
Y
(y) dy =
_
2
0
1
2
y
2
dy =
4
3
(18)
E
_
Y
2
_
=
_

−∞
y
2
f
Y
(y) dy =
_
2
0
1
2
y
3
dy = 2 (19)
The variance of Y is Var[Y] = E[Y
2
] −(E[Y])
2
= 2 −16/9 = 2/9.
(3) The correlation of X and Y is
E [XY] =
_

−∞
_

−∞
xy f
X,Y
(x, y) dx, dy (20)
=
_
1
0
_
2
0
x
2
y
2
dx, dy =
x
3
3
¸
¸
¸
¸
1
0
y
3
3
¸
¸
¸
¸
2
0
=
8
9
(21)
(4) The covariance of X and Y is
Cov [X, Y] = E [XY] − E [X] E [Y] =
8
9

_
2
3
__
4
3
_
= 0. (22)
(5) Since Cov[X, Y] = 0, the correlation coefficient is ρ
X,Y
= 0.
Quiz 4.8
(A) Since the event V > 80 occurs only for the pairs (L, T) = (2, 60), (L, T) = (3, 40)
and (L, T) = (3, 60),
P [A] = P [V > 80] = P
L,T
(2, 60) + P
L,T
(3, 40) + P
L,T
(3, 60) = 0.45 (1)
By Definition 4.9,
P
L,T| A
(l, t ) =
_
P
L,T
(l,t )
P[A]
lt > 80
0 otherwise
(2)
26
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
We can represent this conditional PMF in the following table:
P
L,T| A
(l, t ) t = 40 t = 60
l = 1 0 0
l = 2 0 4/9
l = 3 1/3 2/9
The conditional expectation of V can be found from the conditional PMF.
E [V| A] =

l

t
lt P
L,T| A
(l, t ) (3)
= (2 · 60)
4
9
+(3 · 40)
1
3
+(3 · 60)
2
9
= 133
1
3
(4)
For the conditional variance Var[V| A], we first find the conditional second moment
E
_
V
2
| A
_
=

l

t
(lt )
2
P
L,T| A
(l, t ) (5)
= (2 · 60)
2
4
9
+(3 · 40)
2
1
3
+(3 · 60)
2
2
9
= 18, 400 (6)
It follows that
Var [V| A] = E
_
V
2
| A
_
−(E [V| A])
2
= 622
2
9
(7)
(B) For continuous random variables X and Y, we first calculate the probability of the
conditioning event.
P [B] =
__
B
f
X,Y
(x, y) dx dy =
_
60
40
_
3
80/y
xy
4000
dx dy (8)
=
_
60
40
y
4000
_
x
2
2
¸
¸
¸
¸
3
80/y
_
dy (9)
=
_
60
40
y
4000
_
9
2

3200
y
2
_
dy (10)
=
9
8

4
5
ln
3
2
≈ 0.801 (11)
The conditional PDF of X and Y is
f
X,Y|B
(x, y) =
_
f
X,Y
(x, y) /P [B] (x, y) ∈ B
0 otherwise
(12)
=
_
Kxy 40 ≤ y ≤ 60, 80/y ≤ x ≤ 3
0 otherwise
(13)
27
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
where K = (4000P[B])
−1
. The conditional expectation of W given event B is
E [W|B] =
_

−∞
_

−∞
xy f
X,Y|B
(x, y) dx dy (14)
=
_
60
40
_
3
80/y
Kx
2
y
2
dx dy (15)
= (K/3)
_
60
40
y
2
x
3
¸
¸
¸
x=3
x=80/y
dy (16)
= (K/3)
_
60
40
_
27y
2
−80
3
/y
_
dy (17)
= (K/3)
_
9y
3
−80
3
ln y

¸
¸
60
40
≈ 120.78 (18)
The conditional second moment of K given B is
E
_
W
2
|B
_
=
_

−∞
_

−∞
(xy)
2
f
X,Y|B
(x, y) dx dy (19)
=
_
60
40
_
3
80/y
Kx
3
y
3
dx dy (20)
= (K/4)
_
60
40
y
3
x
4
¸
¸
¸
x=3
x=80/y
dy (21)
= (K/4)
_
60
40
_
81y
3
−80
4
/y
_
dy (22)
= (K/4)
_
(81/4)y
4
−80
4
ln y

¸
¸
60
40
≈ 16, 116.10 (23)
It follows that the conditional variance of W given B is
Var [W|B] = E
_
W
2
|B
_
−(E [W|B])
2
≈ 1528.30 (24)
Quiz 4.9
(A) (1) The joint PMF of A and B can be found from the marginal and conditional
PMFs via P
A,B
(a, b) = P
B| A
(b|a)P
A
(a). Incorporating the information from
the given conditional PMFs can be confusing, however. Consequently, we can
note that A has range S
A
= {0, 2} and B has range S
B
= {0, 1}. A table of the
joint PMF will include all four possible combinations of A and B. The general
form of the table is
P
A,B
(a, b) b = 0 b = 1
a = 0 P
B| A
(0|0)P
A
(0) P
B| A
(1|0)P
A
(0)
a = 2 P
B| A
(0|2)P
A
(2) P
B| A
(1|2)P
A
(2)
28
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Substituting values from P
B| A
(b|a) and P
A
(a), we have
P
A,B
(a, b) b = 0 b = 1
a = 0 (0.8)(0.4) (0.2)(0.4)
a = 2 (0.5)(0.6) (0.5)(0.6)
or
P
A,B
(a, b) b = 0 b = 1
a = 0 0.32 0.08
a = 2 0.3 0.3
(2) Given the conditional PMF P
B| A
(b|2), it is easy to calculate the conditional
expectation
E [B| A = 2] =
1

b=0
bP
B| A
(b|2) = (0)(0.5) +(1)(0.5) = 0.5 (1)
(3) From the joint PMF P
A,B
(a, b), we can calculate the the conditional PMF
P
A|B
(a|0) =
P
A,B
(a, 0)
P
B
(0)
=



0.32/0.62 a = 0
0.3/0.62 a = 2
0 otherwise
(2)
=



16/31 a = 0
15/31 a = 2
0 otherwise
(3)
(4) We can calculate the conditional variance Var[A|B = 0] using the conditional
PMF P
A|B
(a|0). First we calculate the conditional expected value
E [A|B = 0] =

a
aP
A|B
(a|0) = 0(16/31) +2(15/31) = 30/31 (4)
The conditional second moment is
E
_
A
2
|B = 0
_
=

a
a
2
P
A|B
(a|0) = 0
2
(16/31) +2
2
(15/31) = 60/31 (5)
The conditional variance is then
Var[A|B = 0] = E
_
A
2
|B = 0
_
−(E [A|B = 0])
2
=
960
961
(6)
(B) (1) The joint PDF of X and Y is
f
X,Y
(x, y) = f
Y|X
(y|x) f
X
(x) =
_
6y 0 ≤ y ≤ x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
0 otherwise
(7)
(2) From the given conditional PDF f
Y|X
(y|x),
f
Y|X
(y|1/2) =
_
8y 0 ≤ y ≤ 1/2
0 otherwise
(8)
29
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(3) The conditional PDF of Y given X = 1/2 is f
X|Y
(x|1/2) = f
X,Y
(x, 1/2)/f
Y
(1/2).
To find f
Y
(1/2), we integrate the joint PDF.
f
Y
(1/2) =
_

−∞
f
X,1/2
( ) dx =
_
1
1/2
6(1/2) dx = 3/2 (9)
Thus, for 1/2 ≤ x ≤ 1,
f
X|Y
(x|1/2) =
f
X,Y
(x, 1/2)
f
Y
(1/2)
=
6(1/2)
3/2
= 2 (10)
(4) From the pervious part, we see that given Y = 1/2, the conditional PDF of X
is uniform (1/2, 1). Thus, by the definition of the uniform (a, b) PDF,
Var [X|Y = 1/2] =
(1 −1/2)
2
12
=
1
48
(11)
Quiz 4.10
(A) (1) For random variables X and Y from Example 4.1, we observe that P
Y
(1) =
0.09 and P
X
(0) = 0.01. However,
P
X,Y
(0, 1) = 0 = P
X
(0) P
Y
(1) (1)
Since we have found a pair x, y such that P
X,Y
(x, y) = P
X
(x)P
Y
(y), we can
conclude that X and Y are dependent. Note that whenever P
X,Y
(x, y) = 0,
independence requires that either P
X
(x) = 0 or P
Y
(y) = 0.
(2) For random variables Q and G from Quiz 4.2, it is not obvious whether they
are independent. Unlike X and Y in part (a), there are no obvious pairs q, g
that fail the independence requirement. In this case, we calculate the marginal
PMFs from the table of the joint PMF P
Q,G
(q, g) in Quiz 4.2.
P
Q,G
(q, g) g = 0 g = 1 g = 2 g = 3 P
Q
(q)
q = 0 0.06 0.18 0.24 0.12 0.60
q = 1 0.04 0.12 0.16 0.08 0.40
P
G
(g) 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.20
Careful study of the table will verify that P
Q,G
(q, g) = P
Q
(q)P
G
(g) for every
pair q, g. Hence Q and G are independent.
(B) (1) Since X
1
and X
2
are independent,
f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) = f
X
1
(x
1
) f
X
2
(x
2
) (2)
=
_
(1 − x
1
/2)(1 − x
2
/2) 0 ≤ x
1
≤ 2, 0 ≤ x
2
≤ 2
0 otherwise
(3)
30
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) Let F
X
(x) denote the CDF of both X
1
and X
2
. The CDF of Z = max(X
1
, X
2
)
is found by observing that Z ≤ z iff X
1
≤ z and X
2
≤ z. That is,
P [Z ≤ z] = P [X
1
≤ z, X
2
≤ z] (4)
= P [X
1
≤ z] P [X
2
≤ z] = [F
X
(z)]
2
(5)
To complete the problem, we need to find the CDF of each X
i
. From the PDF
f
X
(x), the CDF is
F
X
(x) =
_
x
−∞
f
X
(y) dy =



0 x < 0
x − x
2
/4 0 ≤ x ≤ 2
1 x > 2
(6)
Thus for 0 ≤ z ≤ 2,
F
Z
(z) = (z − z
2
/4)
2
(7)
The complete expression for the CDF of Z is
F
Z
(z) =



0 z < 0
(z − z
2
/4)
2
0 ≤ z ≤ 2
1 z > 1
(8)
Quiz 4.11
This problem just requires identifying the various terms in Definition 4.17 and Theo-
rem 4.29. Specifically, from the problem statement, we know that ρ = 1/2,
µ
1
= µ
X
= 0, µ
2
= µ
Y
= 0, (1)
and that
σ
1
= σ
X
= 1, σ
2
= σ
Y
= 1. (2)
(1) Applying these facts to Definition 4.17, we have
f
X,Y
(x, y) =
1


2
e
−2(x
2
−xy+y
2
)/3
. (3)
(2) By Theorem 4.30, the conditional expected value and standard deviation of X given
Y = y are
E [X|Y = y] = y/2 ˜ σ
X
= σ
2
1
(1 −ρ
2
) =
_
3/4. (4)
When Y = y = 2, we see that E[X|Y = 2] = 1 and Var[X|Y = 2] = 3/4. The
conditional PDF of X given Y = 2 is simply the Gaussian PDF
f
X|Y
(x|2) =
1

3π/2
e
−2(x−1)
2
/3
. (5)
31
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 4.12
One straightforward method is to follow the approach of Example 4.28. Instead, we use
an alternate approach. First we observe that X has the discrete uniform (1, 4) PMF. Also,
given X = x, Y has a discrete uniform (1, x) PMF. That is,
P
X
(x) =
_
1/4 x = 1, 2, 3, 4,
0 otherwise,
P
Y|X
(y|x) =
_
1/x y = 1, . . . , x
0 otherwise
(1)
Given X = x, and an independent uniform (0, 1) random variable U, we can generate a
sample value of Y with a discrete uniform (1, x) PMF via Y = xU. This observation
prompts the following program:
function xy=dtrianglerv(m)
sx=[1;2;3;4];
px=0.25*ones(4,1);
x=finiterv(sx,px,m);
y=ceil(x.*rand(m,1));
xy=[x’;y’];
32
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 5
Quiz 5.1
We find P[C] by integrating the joint PDF over the region of interest. Specifically,
P [C] =
_
1/2
0
dy
2
_
y
2
0
dy
1
_
1/2
0
dy
4
_
y
4
0
4dy
3
(1)
= 4
_
_
1/2
0
y
2
dy
2
__
_
1/2
0
y
4
dy
4
_
= 1/4. (2)
Quiz 5.2
By definition of A, Y
1
= X
1
, Y
2
= X
2
−X
1
and Y
3
= X
3
−X
2
. Since 0 < X
1
< X
2
<
X
3
, each Y
i
must be a strictly positive integer. Thus, for y
1
, y
2
, y
3
∈ {1, 2, . . .},
P
Y
(y) = P [Y
1
= y
1
, Y
2
= y
2
, Y
3
= y
3
] (1)
= P [X
1
= y
1
, X
2
− X
1
= y
2
, X
3
− X
2
= y
3
] (2)
= P [X
1
= y
1
, X
2
= y
2
+ y
1
, X
3
= y
3
+ y
2
+ y
1
] (3)
= (1 − p)
3
p
y
1
+y
2
+y
3
(4)
By defining the vector a =
_
1 1 1
_

, the complete expression for the joint PMF of Y is
P
Y
(y) =
_
(1 − p) p
a

y
y
1
, y
2
, y
3
∈ {1, 2, . . .}
0 otherwise
(5)
Quiz 5.3
First we note that each marginal PDF is nonzero only if any subset of the x
i
obeys the
ordering contraints 0 ≤ x
1
≤ x
2
≤ x
3
≤ 1. Within these constraints, we have
f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) =
_

−∞
f
X
(x) dx
3
=
_
1
x
2
6 dx
3
= 6(1 − x
2
), (1)
f
X
2
,X
3
(x
2
, x
3
) =
_

−∞
f
X
(x) dx
1
=
_
x
2
0
6 dx
1
= 6x
2
, (2)
f
X
1
,X
3
(x
1
, x
3
) =
_

−∞
f
X
(x) dx
2
=
_
x
3
x
1
6 dx
2
= 6(x
3
− x
1
). (3)
In particular, we must keep in mind that f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x
1
≤ x
2
≤ 1,
f
X
2
,X
3
(x
2
, x
3
) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x
2
≤ x
3
≤ 1, and that f
X
1
,X
3
(x
1
, x
3
) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x
1

33
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
x
3
≤ 1. The complete expressions are
f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) =
_
6(1 − x
2
) 0 ≤ x
1
≤ x
2
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(4)
f
X
2
,X
3
(x
2
, x
3
) =
_
6x
2
0 ≤ x
2
≤ x
3
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(5)
f
X
1
,X
3
(x
1
, x
3
) =
_
6(x
3
− x
1
) 0 ≤ x
1
≤ x
3
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(6)
Now we can find the marginal PDFs. When 0 ≤ x
i
≤ 1 for each x
i
,
f
X
1
(x
1
) =
_

−∞
f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) dx
2
=
_
1
x
1
6(1 − x
2
) dx
2
= 3(1 − x
1
)
2
(7)
f
X
2
(x
2
) =
_

−∞
f
X
2
,X
3
(x
2
, x
3
) dx
3
=
_
1
x
2
6x
2
dx
3
= 6x
2
(1 − x
2
) (8)
f
X
3
(x
3
) =
_

−∞
f
X
2
,X
3
(x
2
, x
3
) dx
2
=
_
x
3
0
6x
2
dx
2
= 3x
2
3
(9)
The complete expressions are
f
X
1
(x
1
) =
_
3(1 − x
1
)
2
0 ≤ x
1
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(10)
f
X
2
(x
2
) =
_
6x
2
(1 − x
2
) 0 ≤ x
2
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(11)
f
X
3
(x
3
) =
_
3x
2
3
0 ≤ x
3
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(12)
Quiz 5.4
In the PDF f
Y
(y), the components have dependencies as a result of the ordering con-
straints Y
1
≤ Y
2
and Y
3
≤ Y
4
. We can separate these constraints by creating the vectors
V =
_
Y
1
Y
2
_
, W =
_
Y
3
Y
4
_
. (1)
The joint PDF of V and W is
f
V,W
(v, w) =
_
4 0 ≤ v
1
≤ v
2
≤ 1, 0 ≤ w
1
≤ w
2
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(2)
34
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
We must verify that V and W are independent. For 0 ≤ v
1
≤ v
2
≤ 1,
f
V
(v) =
__
f
V,W
(v, w) dw
1
dw
2
(3)
=
_
1
0
_
_
1
w
1
4 dw
2
_
dw
1
(4)
=
_
1
0
4(1 −w
1
) dw
1
= 2 (5)
Similarly, for 0 ≤ w
1
≤ w
2
≤ 1,
f
W
(w) =
__
f
V,W
(v, w) dv
1
dv
2
(6)
=
_
1
0
_
_
1
v
1
4 dv
2
_
dv
1
= 2 (7)
It follows that V and W have PDFs
f
V
(v) =
_
2 0 ≤ v
1
≤ v
2
≤ 1
0 otherwise
, f
W
(w) =
_
2 0 ≤ w
1
≤ w
2
≤ 1
0 otherwise
(8)
It is easy to verify that f
V,W
(v, w) = f
V
(v) f
W
(w), confirming that V and W are indepen-
dent vectors.
Quiz 5.5
(A) Referring to Theorem 1.19, each test is a subexperiment with three possible out-
comes: L, A and R. In five trials, the vector X =
_
X
1
X
2
X
3
_

indicating the
number of outcomes of each subexperiment has the multinomial PMF
P
X
(x) =



_
5
x
1
,x
2
,x
3
_
(0.3)
x
1
(0.6)
x
2
(0.1)
x
3
x
1
+ x
2
+ x
3
= 5;
x
1
, x
2
, x
3
∈ {0, 1, . . . , 5}
0 otherwise
(1)
We can find the marginal PMF for each X
i
from the joint PMF P
X
(x); however it
is simpler to just start from first principles and observe that X
1
is the number of
occurrences of L in five independent tests. If we view each test as a trial with success
probability P[L] = 0.3, we see that X
1
is a binomial (n, p) = (5, 0.3) random
variable. Similarly, X
2
is a binomial (5, 0.6) random variable and X
3
is a binomial
(5, 0.1) random variable. That is, for p
1
= 0.3, p
2
= 0.6 and p
3
= 0.1,
P
X
i
(x) =
_ _
5
x
_
p
x
i
(1 − p
i
)
5−x
x = 0, 1, . . . , 5
0 otherwise
(2)
35
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
From the marginal PMFs, we see that X
1
, X
2
and X
3
are not independent. Hence, we
must use Theorem 5.6 to find the PMF of W. In particular, since X
1
+ X
2
+ X
3
= 5
and since each X
i
is non-negative, P
W
(0) = P
W
(1) = 0. Furthermore,
P
W
(2) = P
X
(1, 2, 2) + P
X
(2, 1, 2) + P
X
(2, 2, 1) (3)
=
5![0.3(0.6)
2
(0.1)
2
+0.3
2
(0.6)(0.1)
2
+0.3
2
(0.6)
2
(0.1)]
2!2!1!
(4)
= 0.1458 (5)
In addition, for w = 3, w = 4, and w = 5, the event W = w occurs if and only if
one of the mutually exclusive events X
1
= w, X
2
= w, or X
3
= w occurs. Thus,
P
W
(3) = P
X
1
(3) + P
X
2
(3) + P
X
3
(3) = 0.486 (6)
P
W
(4) = P
X
1
(4) + P
X
2
(4) + P
X
3
(4) = 0.288 (7)
P
W
(5) = P
X
1
(5) + P
X
2
(5) + P
X
3
(5) = 0.0802 (8)
(B) Since each Y
i
= 2X
i
+4, we can apply Theorem 5.10 to write
f
Y
(y) =
1
2
3
f
X
_
y
1
−4
2
,
y
2
−4
2
,
y
3
−4
2
_
(9)
=
_
(1/8)e
−(y
3
−4)/2
4 ≤ y
1
≤ y
2
≤ y
3
0 otherwise
(10)
Note that for other matrices A, the constraints on y resulting from the constraints
0 ≤ X
1
≤ X
2
≤ X
3
can be much more complicated.
Quiz 5.6
We start by finding the components E[X
i
] =
_

−∞
x f
X
i
(x) dx of µ
X
. To do so, we use
the marginal PDFs f
X
i
(x) found in Quiz 5.3:
E [X
1
] =
_
1
0
3x(1 − x)
2
dx = 1/4, (1)
E [X
2
] =
_
1
0
6x
2
(1 − x) dx = 1/2, (2)
E [X
3
] =
_
1
0
3x
3
dx = 3/4. (3)
To find the correlation matrix R
X
, we need to find E[X
i
X
j
] for all i and j . We start with
36
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
the second moments:
E
_
X
2
1
_
=
_
1
0
3x
2
(1 − x)
2
dx = 1/10. (4)
E
_
X
2
2
_
=
_
1
0
6x
3
(1 − x) dx = 3/10. (5)
E
_
X
2
3
_
=
_
1
0
3x
4
dx = 3/5. (6)
Using marginal PDFs from Quiz 5.3, the cross terms are
E [X
1
X
2
] =
_

−∞
_

−∞
x
1
x
2
f
X
1
,X
2
(x
1
, x
2
) , dx
1
dx
2
(7)
=
_
1
0
_
_
1
x
1
6x
1
x
2
(1 − x
2
) dx
2
_
dx
1
(8)
=
_
1
0
[x
1
−3x
3
1
+2x
4
1
] dx
1
= 3/20. (9)
E [X
2
X
3
] =
_
1
0
_
1
x
2
6x
2
2
x
3
dx
3
dx
2
(10)
=
_
1
0
[3x
2
2
−3x
4
2
] dx
2
= 2/5 (11)
E [X
1
X
3
] =
_
1
0
_
1
x
1
6x
1
x
3
(x
3
− x
1
) dx
3
dx
1
. (12)
=
_
1
0
_
(2x
1
x
3
3
−3x
2
1
x
2
3
)
¸
¸
¸
x
3
=1
x
3
=x
1
_
dx
1
(13)
=
_
1
0
[2x
1
−3x
2
1
+ x
4
1
] dx
1
= 1/5. (14)
Summarizing the results, X has correlation matrix
R
X
=


1/10 3/20 1/5
3/20 3/10 2/5
1/5 2/5 3/5


. (15)
Vector X has covariance matrix
C
X
= R
X
− E [X] E [X]

(16)
=


1/10 3/20 1/5
3/20 3/10 2/5
1/5 2/5 3/5





1/4
1/2
3/4


_
1/4 1/2 3/4
_
(17)
=


1/10 3/20 1/5
3/20 3/10 2/5
1/5 2/5 3/5





1/16 1/8 3/16
1/8 1/4 3/8
3/16 3/8 9/16


=
1
80


3 2 1
2 4 2
1 2 3


. (18)
37
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
This problemshows that even for fairly simple joint PDFs, computing the covariance matrix
by calculus can be a time consuming task.
Quiz 5.7
We observe that X = AZ +b where
A =
_
2 1
1 −1
_
, b =
_
2
0
_
. (1)
It follows from Theorem 5.18 that µ
X
= b and that
C
X
= AA

=
_
2 1
1 −1
_ _
2 1
1 −1
_
=
_
5 1
1 2
_
. (2)
Quiz 5.8
First, we observe that Y = AT where A =
_
1/31 1/31 · · · 1/31
_

. Since T is a
Gaussian random vector, Theorem 5.16 tells us that Y is a 1 dimensional Gaussian vector,
i.e., just a Gaussian random variable. The expected value of Y is µ
Y
= µ
T
= 80. The
covariance matrix of Y is 1 × 1 and is just equal to Var[Y]. Thus, by Theorem 5.16,
Var[Y] = AC
T
A

.
function p=julytemps(T);
[D1 D2]=ndgrid((1:31),(1:31));
CT=36./(1+abs(D1-D2));
A=ones(31,1)/31.0;
CY=(A’)*CT*A;
p=phi((T-80)/sqrt(CY));
In julytemps.m, the first two lines gen-
erate the 31 ×31 covariance matrix CT, or
C
T
. Next we calculate Var[Y]. The final
step is to use the (·) function to calculate
P[Y < T].
Here is the output of julytemps.m:
>> julytemps([70 75 80 85 90 95])
ans =
0.0000 0.0221 0.5000 0.9779 1.0000 1.0000
Note that P[T ≤ 70] is not actually zero and that P[T ≤ 90] is not actually 1.0000. Its
just that the MATLAB’s short format output, invoked with the command format short,
rounds off those probabilities. Here is the long format output:
>> format long
>> julytemps([70 75 80 85 90 95])
ans =
Columns 1 through 4
0.00002844263128 0.02207383067604 0.50000000000000 0.97792616932396
Columns 5 through 6
0.99997155736872 0.99999999922010
38
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
The ndgrid function is a useful to way calculate many covariance matrices. However, in
this problem, C
X
has a special structure; the i, j th element is
C
T
(i, j ) = c
|i −j |
=
36
1 +|i − j |
. (1)
If we write out the elements of the covariance matrix, we see that
C
T
=





c
0
c
1
· · · c
30
c
1
c
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. c
1
c
30
· · · c
1
c
0





. (2)
This covariance matrix is known as a symmetric Toeplitz matrix. We will see in Chap-
ters 9 and 11 that Toeplitz covariance matrices are quite common. In fact, MATLAB has a
toeplitz function for generating them. The function julytemps2 use the toeplitz
to generate the correlation matrix C
T
.
function p=julytemps2(T);
c=36./(1+abs(0:30));
CT=toeplitz(c);
A=ones(31,1)/31.0;
CY=(A’)*CT*A;
p=phi((T-80)/sqrt(CY));
39
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 6
Quiz 6.1
Let K
1
, . . . , K
n
denote a sequence of iid random variables each with PMF
P
K
(k) =
_
1/4 k = 1, . . . , 4
0 otherwise
(1)
We can write W
n
in the form of W
n
= K
1
+ · · · + K
n
. First, we note that the first two
moments of K
i
are
E [K
i
] = (1 +2 +3 +4)/4 = 2.5 (2)
E
_
K
2
i
_
= (1
2
+2
2
+3
2
+4
2
)/4 = 7.5 (3)
Thus the variance of K
i
is
Var[K
i
] = E
_
K
2
i
_
−(E [K
i
])
2
= 7.5 −(2.5)
2
= 1.25 (4)
Since E[K
i
] = 2.5, the expected value of W
n
is
E [W
n
] = E [K
1
] +· · · + E [K
n
] = nE [K
i
] = 2.5n (5)
Since the rolls are independent, the random variables K
1
, . . . , K
n
are independent. Hence,
by Theorem 6.3, the variance of the sum equals the sum of the variances. That is,
Var[W
n
] = Var[K
1
] +· · · +Var[K
n
] = 1.25n (6)
Quiz 6.2
Random variables X and Y have PDFs
f
X
(x) =
_
3e
−3x
x ≥ 0
0 otherwise
f
Y
(y) =
_
2e
−2y
y ≥ 0
0 otherwise
(1)
Since X and Y are nonnegative, W = X +Y is nonnegative. By Theorem 6.5, the PDF of
W = X +Y is
f
W
(w) =
_

−∞
f
X
(w − y) f
Y
(y) dy = 6
_
w
0
e
−3(w−y)
e
−2y
dy (2)
Fortunately, this integral is easy to evaluate. For w > 0,
f
W
(w) = e
−3w
e
y
¸
¸
w
0
= 6
_
e
−2w
−e
−3w
_
(3)
Since f
W
(w) = 0 for w < 0, a conmplete expression for the PDF of W is
f
W
(w) =
_
6e
−2w
_
1 −e
−w
_
w ≥ 0,
0 otherwise.
(4)
40
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 6.3
The MGF of K is
φ
K
(s) = E
_
e
s K
_
==
4

k=0
(0.2)e
sk
= 0.2
_
1 +e
s
+e
2s
+e
3s
+e
4s
_
(1)
We find the moments by taking derivatives. The first derivative of φ
K
(s) is

K
(s)
ds
= 0.2(e
s
+2e
2s
+3e
3s
+4e
4s
) (2)
Evaluating the derivative at s = 0 yields
E [K] =

K
(s)
ds
¸
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 0.2(1 +2 +3 +4) = 2 (3)
To find higher-order moments, we continue to take derivatives:
E
_
K
2
_
=
d
2
φ
K
(s)
ds
2
¸
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 0.2(e
s
+4e
2s
+9e
3s
+16e
4s
)
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 6 (4)
E
_
K
3
_
=
d
3
φ
K
(s)
ds
3
¸
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 0.2(e
s
+8e
2s
+27e
3s
+64e
4s
)
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 20 (5)
E
_
K
4
_
=
d
4
φ
K
(s)
ds
4
¸
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 0.2(e
s
+16e
2s
+81e
3s
+256e
4s
)
¸
¸
¸
s=0
= 70.8 (6)
(7)
Quiz 6.4
(A) Each K
i
has MGF
φ
K
(s) = E
_
e
s K
i
_
=
e
s
+e
2s
+· · · +e
ns
n
=
e
s
(1 −e
ns
)
n(1 −e
s
)
(1)
Since the sequence of K
i
is independent, Theorem 6.8 says the MGF of J is
φ
J
(s) = (φ
K
(s))
m
=
e
ms
(1 −e
ns
)
m
n
m
(1 −e
s
)
m
(2)
(B) Since the set of α
j
X
j
are independent Gaussian random variables, Theorem 6.10
says that W is a Gaussian random variable. Thus to find the PDF of W, we need
only find the expected value and variance. Since the expectation of the sum equals
the sum of the expectations:
E [W] = αE [X
1
] +α
2
E [X
2
] +· · · +α
n
E [X
n
] = 0 (3)
41
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Since the α
j
X
j
are independent, the variance of the sum equals the sum of the vari-
ances:
Var[W] = α
2
Var[X
1
] +α
4
Var[X
2
] +· · · +α
2n
Var[X
n
] (4)
= α
2
+2(α
2
)
2
+3(α
2
)
3
+· · · +n(α
2
)
n
(5)
Defining q = α
2
, we can use Math Fact B.6 to write
Var[W] =
α
2
−α
2n+2
[1 +n(1 −α
2
)]
(1 −α
2
)
2
(6)
With E[W] = 0 and σ
2
W
= Var[W], we can write the PDF of W as
f
W
(w) =
1
_
2πσ
2
W
e
−w
2
/2σ
2
W
(7)
Quiz 6.5
(1) From Table 6.1, each X
i
has MGF φ
X
(s) and random variable N has MGF φ
N
(s)
where
φ
X
(s) =
1
1 −s
, φ
N
(s) =
1
5
e
s
1 −
4
5
e
s
. (1)
From Theorem 6.12, R has MGF
φ
R
(s) = φ
N
(ln φ
X
(s)) =
1
5
φ
X
(s)
1 −
4
5
φ
X
(s)
(2)
Substituting the expression for φ
X
(s) yields
φ
R
(s) =
1
5
1
5
−s
. (3)
(2) From Table 6.1, we see that R has the MGF of an exponential (1/5) random variable.
The corresponding PDF is
f
R
(r) =
_
(1/5)e
−r/5
r ≥ 0
0 otherwise
(4)
This quiz is an example of the general result that a geometric sum of exponential
random variables is an exponential random variable.
42
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 6.6
(1) The expected access time is
E [X] =
_

−∞
x f
X
(x) dx =
_
12
0
x
12
dx = 6 msec (1)
(2) The second moment of the access time is
E
_
X
2
_
=
_

−∞
x
2
f
X
(x) dx =
_
12
0
x
2
12
dx = 48 (2)
The variance of the access time is Var[X] = E[X
2
] −(E[X])
2
= 48 −36 = 12.
(3) Using X
i
to denote the access time of block i , we can write
A = X
1
+ X
2
+· · · + X
12
(3)
Since the expectation of the sum equals the sum of the expectations,
E [A] = E [X
1
] +· · · + E [X
12
] = 12E [X] = 72 msec (4)
(4) Since the X
i
are independent,
Var[A] = Var[X
1
] +· · · +Var[X
12
] = 12 Var[X] = 144 (5)
Hence, the standard deviation of A is σ
A
= 12
(5) To use the central limit theorem, we write
P [A > 75] = 1 − P [A ≤ 75] (6)
= 1 − P
_
A − E [A]
σ
A

75 − E [A]
σ
A
_
(7)
≈ 1 −
_
75 −72
12
_
(8)
= 1 −0.5987 = 0.4013 (9)
Note that we used Table 3.1 to look up (0.25).
(6) Once again, we use the central limit theorem and Table 3.1 to estimate
P [A < 48] = P
_
A − E [A]
σ
A
<
48 − E [A]
σ
A
_
(10)

_
48 −72
12
_
(11)
= 1 −(2) = 1 −0.9773 = 0.0227 (12)
43
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 6.7
Random variable K
n
has a binomial distribution for n trials and success probability
P[V] = 3/4.
(1) The expected number of voice calls out of 48 calls is E[K
48
] = 48P[V] = 36.
(2) The variance of K
48
is
Var[K
48
] = 48P [V] (1 − P [V]) = 48(3/4)(1/4) = 9 (1)
Thus K
48
has standard deviation σ
K
48
= 3.
(3) Using the ordinary central limit theorem and Table 3.1 yields
P [30 ≤ K
48
≤ 42] ≈
_
42 −36
3
_

_
30 −36
3
_
= (2) −(−2) (2)
Recalling that (−x) = 1 −(x), we have
P [30 ≤ K
48
≤ 42] ≈ 2(2) −1 = 0.9545 (3)
(4) Since K
48
is a discrete random variable, we can use the De Moivre-Laplace approx-
imation to estimate
P [30 ≤ K
48
≤ 42] ≈
_
42 +0.5 −36
3
_

_
30 −0.5 −36
3
_
(4)
= 2(2.16666) −1 = 0.9687 (5)
Quiz 6.8
The train interarrival times X
1
, X
2
, X
3
are iid exponential (λ) random variables. The
arrival time of the third train is
W = X
1
+ X
2
+ X
3
. (1)
In Theorem 6.11, we found that the sum of three iid exponential (λ) random variables is an
Erlang (n = 3, λ) random variable. From Appendix A, we find that W has expected value
and variance
E [W] = 3/λ = 6 Var[W] = 3/λ
2
= 12 (2)
(1) By the Central Limit Theorem,
P [W > 20] = P
_
W −6

12
>
20 −6

12
_
≈ Q(7/

3) = 2.66 ×10
−5
(3)
44
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) To use the Chernoff bound, we note that the MGF of W is
φ
W
(s) =
_
λ
λ −s
_
3
=
1
(1 −2s)
3
(4)
The Chernoff bound states that
P [W > 20] ≤ min
s≥0
e
−20s
φ
X
(s) = min
s≥0
e
−20s
(1 −2s)
3
(5)
To minimize h(s) = e
−20s
/(1 −2s)
3
, we set the derivative of h(s) to zero:
dh(s)
ds
=
−20(1 −2s)
3
e
−20s
+6e
−20s
(1 −2s)
2
(1 −2s)
6
= 0 (6)
This implies 20(1 − 2s) = 6 or s = 7/20. Applying s = 7/20 into the Chernoff
bound yields
P [W > 20] ≤
e
−20s
(1 −2s)
3
¸
¸
¸
¸
s=7/20
= (10/3)
3
e
−7
= 0.0338 (7)
(3) Theorem 3.11 says that for any w > 0, the CDF of the Erlang (λ, 3) random variable
W satisfies
F
W
(w) = 1 −
2

k=0
(λw)
k
e
−λw
k!
(8)
Equivalently, for λ = 1/2 and w = 20,
P [W > 20] = 1 − F
W
(20) (9)
= e
−10
_
1 +
10
1!
+
10
2
2!
_
= 61e
−10
= 0.0028 (10)
Although the Chernoff bound is relatively weak in that it overestimates the proba-
bility by roughly a factor of 12, it is a valid bound. By contrast, the Central Limit
Theorem approximation grossly underestimates the true probability.
Quiz 6.9
One solution to this problem is to follow the approach of Example 6.19:
%unifbinom100.m
sx=0:100;sy=0:100;
px=binomialpmf(100,0.5,sx); py=duniformpmf(0,100,sy);
[SX,SY]=ndgrid(sx,sy); [PX,PY]=ndgrid(px,py);
SW=SX+SY; PW=PX.*PY;
sw=unique(SW); pw=finitepmf(SW,PW,sw);
pmfplot(sw,pw,’\itw’,’\itP_W(w)’);
A graph of the PMF P
W
(w) appears in Figure 2 With some thought, it should be apparent
that the finitepmf function is implementing the convolution of the two PMFs.
45
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
w
P
W
(
w
)
Figure 2: From Quiz 6.9, the PMF P
W
(w) of the independent sum of a binomial (100, 0.5)
random variable and a discrete uniform (0, 100) random variable.
46
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 7
Quiz 7.1
An exponential random variable with expected value 1 also has variance 1. By Theo-
rem 7.1, M
n
(X) has variance Var[M
n
(X)] = 1/n. Hence, we need n = 100 samples.
Quiz 7.2
The arrival time of the third elevator is W = X
1
+ X
2
+ X
3
. Since each X
i
is uniform
(0, 30),
E [X
i
] = 15, Var [X
i
] =
(30 −0)
2
12
= 75. (1)
Thus E[W] = 3E[X
i
] = 45, and Var[W] = 3 Var[X
i
] = 225.
(1) By the Markov inequality,
P [W > 75] ≤
E [W]
75
=
45
75
=
3
5
(2)
(2) By the Chebyshev inequality,
P [W > 75] = P [W − E [W] > 30] (3)
≤ P [|W − E [W]| > 30] ≤
Var [W]
30
2
=
225
900
=
1
4
(4)
Quiz 7.3
Define the random variable W = (X − µ
X
)
2
. Observe that V
100
(X) = M
100
(W). By
Theorem 7.6, the mean square error is
E
_
(M
100
(W) −µ
W
)
2
_
=
Var[W]
100
(1)
Observe that µ
X
= 0 so that W = X
2
. Thus,
µ
W
= E
_
X
2
_
=
_
1
−1
x
2
f
X
(x) dx = 1/3 (2)
E
_
W
2
_
= E
_
X
4
_
=
_
1
−1
x
4
f
X
(x) dx = 1/5 (3)
Therefore Var[W] = E[W
2
] − µ
2
W
= 1/5 − (1/3)
2
= 4/45 and the mean square error is
4/4500 = 0.000889.
47
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 7.4
Assuming the number n of samples is large, we can use a Gaussian approximation for
M
n
(X). SinceE[X] = p and Var[X] = p(1 − p), we apply Theorem 7.13 which says that
the interval estimate
M
n
(X) −c ≤ p ≤ M
n
(X) +c (1)
has confidence coefficient 1 −α where
α = 2 −2
_
c

n
p(1 − p)
_
. (2)
We must ensure for every value of p that 1 − α ≥ 0.9 or α ≤ 0.1. Equivalently, we must
have

_
c

n
p(1 − p)
_
≥ 0.95 (3)
for every value of p. Since (x) is an increasing function of x, we must satisfy c

n ≥
1.65p(1 − p). Since p(1 − p) ≤ 1/4 for all p, we require that
c ≥
1.65
4

n
=
0.41

n
. (4)
The 0.9 confidence interval estimate of p is
M
n
(X) −
0.41

n
≤ p ≤ M
n
(X) +
0.41

n
. (5)
For the 0.99 confidence interval, we have α ≤ 0.01, implying (c

n/( p(1−p))) ≥ 0.995.
This implies c

n ≥ 2.58p(1 − p). Since p(1 − p) ≤ 1/4 for all p, we require that
c ≥ (0.25)(2.58)/

n. In this case, the 0.99 confidence interval estimate is
M
n
(X) −
0.645

n
≤ p ≤ M
n
(X) +
0.645

n
. (6)
Note that if M
100
(X) = 0.4, then the 0.99 confidence interval estimate is
0.3355 ≤ p ≤ 0.4645. (7)
The interval is wide because the 0.99 confidence is high.
Quiz 7.5
Following the approach of bernoullitraces.m, we generate m = 1000 sample
paths, each sample path having n = 100 Bernoulli traces. at time k, OK(k) counts the
fraction of sample paths that have sample mean within one standard error of p. The pro-
gram bernoullisample.m generates graphs the number of traces within one standard
error as a function of the time, i.e. the number of trials in each trace.
48
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
function OK=bernoullisample(n,m,p);
x=reshape(bernoullirv(p,m*n),n,m);
nn=(1:n)’*ones(1,m);
MN=cumsum(x)./nn;
stderr=sqrt(p*(1-p))./sqrt((1:n)’);
stderrmat=stderr*ones(1,m);
OK=sum(abs(MN-p)<stderrmat,2)/m;
plot(1:n,OK,’-s’);
The following graph was generated by bernoullisample(100,5000,0.5):
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
As we would expect, as m gets large, the fraction of traces within one standard error ap-
proaches 2(1) −1 ≈ 0.68. The unusual sawtooth pattern, though perhaps unexpected, is
examined in Problem 7.5.2.
49
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 8
Quiz 8.1
From the problem statement, each X
i
has PDF and CDF
f
X
i
(x) =
_
e
−x
x ≥ 0
0 otherwise
F
X
i
(x) =
_
0 x < 0
1 −e
−x
x ≥ 0
(1)
Hence, the CDF of the maximum of X
1
, . . . , X
15
obeys
F
X
(x) = P [X ≤ x] = P [X
1
≤ x, X
2
≤ x, · · · , X
15
≤ x] = [P [X
i
≤ x]]
15
. (2)
This implies that for x ≥ 0,
F
X
(x) =
_
F
X
i
(x)
_
15
=
_
1 −e
−x
_
15
(3)
To design a significance test, we must choose a rejection region for X. A reasonable choice
is to reject the hypothesis if X is too small. That is, let R = {X ≤ r}. For a significance
level of α = 0.01, we obtain
α = P [X ≤ r] = (1 −e
−r
)
15
= 0.01 (4)
It is straightforward to show that
r = −ln
_
1 −(0.01)
1/15
_
= 1.33 (5)
Hence, if we observe X < 1.33, then we reject the hypothesis.
Quiz 8.2
From the problem statement, the conditional PMFs of K are
P
K|H
0
(k) =
_
10
4k
e
−10
4
k!
k = 0, 1, . . .
0 otherwise
(1)
P
K|H
1
(k) =
_
10
6k
e
−10
6
k!
k = 0, 1, . . .
0 otherwise
(2)
Since the two hypotheses are equally likely, the MAP and ML tests are the same. From
Theorem 8.6, the ML hypothesis rule is
k ∈ A
0
if P
K|H
0
(k) ≥ P
K|H
1
(k) ; k ∈ A
1
otherwise. (3)
This rule simplifies to
k ∈ A
0
if k ≤ k

=
10
6
−10
4
ln 100
= 214, 975.7; k ∈ A
1
otherwise. (4)
Thus if we observe at least 214, 976 photons, then we accept hypothesis H
1
.
50
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 8.3
For the QPSK system, a symbol error occurs when s
i
is transmitted but (X
1
, X
2
) ∈ A
j
for some j = i . For a QPSK system, it is easier to calculate the probability of a correct
decision. Given H
0
, the conditional probability of a correct decision is
P [C|H
0
] = P [X
1
> 0, X
2
> 0|H
0
] = P
_

E/2 + N
1
> 0,

E/2 + N
2
> 0
_
(1)
Because of the symmetry of the signals, P[C|H
0
] = P[C|H
i
] for all i . This implies the
probability of a correct decision is P[C] = P[C|H
0
]. Since N
1
and N
2
are iid Gaussian
(0, σ) random variables, we have
P [C] = P [C|H
0
] = P
_

E/2 + N
1
> 0
_
P
_

E/2 + N
2
> 0
_
(2)
=
_
P
_
N
1
> −

E/2
__
2
(3)
=
_
1 −
_


E/2
σ
__
2
(4)
Since (−x) = 1 − (x), we have P[C] =
2
(
_
E/2σ
2
). Equivalently, the probability
of error is
P
ERR
= 1 − P [C] = 1 −
2
_
_
E

2
_
(5)
Quiz 8.4
To generate the ROC, the existing program sqdistor already calculates this miss
probability P
MISS
= P
01
and the false alarm probability P
FA
= P
10
. The modified pro-
gram, sqdistroc.m is essentially the same as sqdistor except the output is a ma-
trix FM whose columns are the false alarm and miss probabilities. Next, the program
sqdistrocplot.m calls sqdistroc three times to generate a plot that compares the
receiver performance for the three requested values of d. Here is the modified code:
function FM=sqdistroc(v,d,m,T)
%square law distortion recvr
%P(error) for m bits tested
%transmit v volts or -v volts,
%add N volts, N is Gauss(0,1)
%add d(v+N)ˆ2 distortion
%receive 1 if x>T, otherwise 0
%FM = [P(FA) P(MISS)]
x=(v+randn(m,1));
[XX,TT]=ndgrid(x,T(:));
P01=sum((XX+d*(XX.ˆ2)< TT),1)/m;
x= -v+randn(m,1);
[XX,TT]=ndgrid(x,T(:));
P10=sum((XX+d*(XX.ˆ2)>TT),1)/m;
FM=[P10(:) P01(:)];
function FM=sqdistrocplot(v,m,T);
FM1=sqdistroc(v,0.1,m,T);
FM2=sqdistroc(v,0.2,m,T);
FM5=sqdistroc(v,0.3,m,T);
FM=[FM1 FM2 FM5];
loglog(FM1(:,1),FM1(:,2),’-k’, ...
FM2(:,1),FM2(:,2),’--k’, ...
FM5(:,1),FM5(:,2),’:k’);
legend(’\it d=0.1’,’\it d=0.2’,...
’\it d=0.3’,3)
ylabel(’P_{MISS}’);
xlabel(’P_{FA}’);
51
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
To see the effect of d, the commands
T=-3:0.1:3; sqdistrocplot(3,100000,T);
generated the plot shown in Figure 3.
10
−5
10
−4
10
−3
10
−2
10
−1
10
0
10
−5
10
−4
10
−3
10
−2
10
−1
10
0
P
M
I
S
S
P
FA
d=0.1
d=0.2
d=0.3
T=-3:0.1:3; sqdistrocplot(3,100000,T);
Figure 3: The receiver operating curve for the communications system of Quiz 8.4 with
squared distortion.
52
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 9
Quiz 9.1
(1) First, we calculate the marginal PDF for 0 ≤ y ≤ 1:
f
Y
(y) =
_
y
0
2(y + x) dx = 2xy + x
2
¸
¸
¸
x=y
x=0
= 3y
2
(1)
This implies the conditional PDF of X given Y is
f
X|Y
(x|y) =
f
X,Y
(x, y)
f
Y
(y)
=
_
2
3y
+
2x
3y
2
0 ≤ x ≤ y
0 otherwise
(2)
(2) The minimum mean square error estimate of X given Y = y is
ˆ x
M
(y) = E [X|Y = y] =
_
y
0
_
2x
3y
+
2x
2
3y
2
_
dx = 5y/9 (3)
Thus the MMSE estimator of X given Y is
ˆ
X
M
(Y) = 5Y/9.
(3) To obtain the conditional PDF f
Y|X
(y|x), we need the marginal PDF f
X
(x). For
0 ≤ x ≤ 1,
f
X
(x) =
_
1
x
2(y + x) dy = y
2
+2xy
¸
¸
¸
y=1
y=x
= 1 +2x −3x
2
(4)
(5)
For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1, the conditional PDF of Y given X is
f
Y|X
(y|x) =
_
2(y+x)
1+2x−3x
2
x ≤ y ≤ 1
0 otherwise
(6)
(4) The MMSE estimate of Y given X = x is
ˆ y
M
(x) = E [Y|X = x] =
_
1
x
2y
2
+2xy
1 +2x −3x
2
dy (7)
=
2y
3
/3 + xy
2
1 +2x −3x
2
¸
¸
¸
¸
y=1
y=x
(8)
=
2 +3x −5x
3
3 +6x −9x
2
(9)
53
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 9.2
(1) Since the expectation of the sum equals the sum of the expectations,
E [R] = E [T] + E [X] = 0 (1)
(2) Since T and X are independent, the variance of the sum R = T + X is
Var[R] = Var[T] +Var[X] = 9 +3 = 12 (2)
(3) Since T and R have expected values E[R] = E[T] = 0,
Cov [T, R] = E [T R] = E [T(T + X)] = E
_
T
2
_
+ E [T X] (3)
Since T and X are independent and have zero expected value, E[T X] = E[T]E[X] =
0 and E[T
2
] = Var[T]. Thus Cov[T, R] = Var[T] = 9.
(4) From Definition 4.8, the correlation coefficient of T and R is
ρ
T,R
=
Cov [T, R]

Var[R] Var[T]
=
σ
T
σ
R
=

3/2 (4)
(5) From Theorem 9.4, the optimum linear estimate of T given R is
ˆ
T
L
(R) = ρ
T,R
σ
T
σ
R
(R − E [R]) + E [T] (5)
Since E[R] = E[T] = 0 and ρ
T,R
= σ
T

R
,
ˆ
T
L
(R) =
σ
2
T
σ
2
R
R =
σ
2
T
σ
2
T

2
X
R =
3
4
R (6)
Hence a

= 3/4 and b

= 0.
(6) By Theorem 9.4, the mean square error of the linear estimate is
e

L
= Var[T](1 −ρ
2
T,R
) = 9(1 −3/4) = 9/4 (7)
Quiz 9.3
When R = r, the conditional PDF of X = Y −40−40 log
10
r is Gaussian with expected
value −40 −40 log
10
r and variance 64. The conditional PDF of X given R is
f
X|R
(x|r) =
1

128π
e
−(x+40+40 log
10
r)
2
/128
(1)
54
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
From the conditional PDF f
X|R
(x|r), we can use Definition 9.2 to write the ML estimate
of R given X = x as
ˆ r
ML
(x) = arg max
r≥0
f
X|R
(x|r) (2)
We observe that f
X|R
(x|r) is maximized when the exponent (x + 40 + 40 log
10
r)
2
is
minimized. This minimum occurs when the exponent is zero, yielding
log
10
r = −1 − x/40 (3)
or
ˆ r
ML
(x) = (0.1)10
−x/40
m (4)
If the result doesn’t look correct, note that a typical figure for the signal strength might be
x = −120 dB. This corresponds to a distance estimate of ˆ r
ML
(−120) = 100 m.
For the MAP estimate, we observe that the joint PDF of X and R is
f
X,R
(x, r) = f
X|R
(x|r) f
R
(r) =
1
10
6

32π
re
−(x+40+40 log
10
r)
2
/128
(5)
From Theorem 9.6, the MAP estimate of R given X = x is the value of r that maximizes
f
X,R
(x, r). That is,
ˆ r
MAP
(x) = arg max
0≤r≤1000
f
X,R
(x, r) (6)
Note that we have included the constraint r ≤ 1000 in the maximization to highlight the
fact that under our probability model, R ≤ 1000 m. Setting the derivative of f
X,R
(x, r)
with respect to r to zero yields
e
−(x+40+40 log
10
r)
2
/128
_
1 −
80 log
10
e
128
(x +40 +40 log
10
r)
_
= 0 (7)
Solving for r yields
r = 10
_
1
25 log
10
e
−1
_
10
−x/40
= (0.1236)10
−x/40
(8)
This is the MAP estimate of R given X = x as long as r ≤ 1000 m. When x ≤ −156.3 dB,
the above estimate will exceed 1000 m, which is not possible in our probability model.
Hence, the complete description of the MAP estimate is
ˆ r
MAP
(x) =
_
1000 x < −156.3
(0.1236)10
−x/40
x ≥ −156.3
(9)
For example, if x = −120dB, then ˆ r
MAP
(−120) = 123.6 m. When the measured signal
strength is not too low, the MAP estimate is 23.6% larger than the ML estimate. This re-
flects the fact that large values of R are a priori more probable than small values. However,
for very low signal strengths, the MAP estimate takes into account that the distance can
never exceed 1000 m.
55
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 9.4
(1) From Theorem 9.4, the LMSE estimate of X
2
given Y
2
is
ˆ
X
2
(Y
2
) = a

Y
2
+b

where
a

=
Cov [X
2
, Y
2
]
Var[Y
2
]
, b

= µ
X
2
−a

µ
Y
2
. (1)
Because E[X] = E[Y] = 0,
Cov [X
2
, Y
2
] = E [X
2
Y
2
] = E [X
2
(X
2
+ W
2
)] = E
_
X
2
2
_
= 1 (2)
Var[Y
2
] = Var[X
2
] +Var[W
2
] = E
_
X
2
2
_
+ E
_
W
2
2
_
= 1.1 (3)
It follows that a

= 1/1.1. Because µ
X
2
= µ
Y
2
= 0, it follows that b

= 0. Finally,
to compute the expected square error, we calculate the correlation coefficient
ρ
X
2
,Y
2
=
Cov [X
2
, Y
2
]
σ
X
2
σ
Y
2
=
1

1.1
(4)
The expected square error is
e

L
= Var[X
2
](1 −ρ
2
X
2
,Y
2
) = 1 −
1
1.1
=
1
11
= 0.0909 (5)
(2) Since Y = X + W and E[X] = E[W] = 0, it follows that E[Y] = 0. Thus we can
apply Theorem 9.7. Note that X and W have correlation matrices
R
X
=
_
1 −0.9
−0.9 1
_
, R
W
=
_
0.1 0
0 0.1
_
. (6)
In terms of Theorem 9.7, n = 2 and we wish to estimate X
2
given the observation
vector Y =
_
Y
1
Y
2
_

. To apply Theorem 9.7, we need to find R
Y
and R
YX
2
.
R
Y
= E
_
YY

_
= E
_
(X +W)(X

+W

)
_
(7)
= E
_
XX

+XW

+WX

+WW

_
. (8)
Because Xand Ware independent, E[XW

] = E[X]E[W

] = 0. Similarly, E[WX

] =
0. This implies
R
Y
= E
_
XX

_
+ E
_
WW

_
= R
X
+R
W
=
_
1.1 −0.9
−0.9 1.1
_
. (9)
In addition, we need to find
R
YX
2
= E [YX
2
] =
_
E [Y
1
X
2
]
E [Y
2
X
2
]
_
=
_
E [(X
1
+ W
1
)X
2
]
E [(X
2
+ W
2
)X
2
]
_
. (10)
56
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Since Xand Ware independent vectors, E[W
1
X
2
] = E[W
1
]E[X
2
] = 0 and E[W
2
X
2
] =
0. Thus
R
YX
2
=
_
E[X
1
X
2
]
E
_
X
2
2
_
_
=
_
−0.9
1
_
. (11)
By Theorem 9.7,
ˆ a = R
−1
Y
R
YX
2
=
_
−0.225
0.725
_
(12)
Therefore, the optimum linear estimator of X
2
given Y
1
and Y
2
is
ˆ
X
L
= ˆ a

Y = −0.225Y
1
+0.725Y
2
. (13)
The mean square error is
Var [X
2
] − ˆ a

R
YX
2
= Var [X] −a
1
r
Y
1
,X
2
−a
2
r
Y
2
,X
2
= 0.0725. (14)
Quiz 9.5
Since X and W have zero expected value, Y also has zero expected value. Thus, by
Theorem 9.7,
ˆ
X
L
(Y) = ˆ a

Y where ˆ a = R
−1
Y
R
YX
. Since X and W are independent,
E[WX] = 0 and E[XW

] = 0

. This implies
R
YX
= E [YX] = E [(1X +W)X] = 1E
_
X
2
_
= 1. (1)
By the same reasoning, the correlation matrix of Y is
R
Y
= E
_
YY

_
= E
_
(1X +W)(1

X +W

)
_
(2)
= 11

E
_
X
2
_
+1E
_
XW

_
+ E [WX] 1

+ E
_
WW

_
(3)
= 11

+R
W
(4)
Note that 11

is a 20 ×20 matrix with every entry equal to 1. Thus,
ˆ a = R
−1
Y
R
YX
=
_
11

+R
W
_
−1
1 (5)
and the optimal linear estimator is
ˆ
X
L
(Y) = 1

_
11

+R
W
_
−1
Y (6)
The mean square error is
e

L
= Var[X] − ˆ a

R
YX
= 1 −1

_
11

+R
W
_
−1
1 (7)
Now we note that R
W
has i, j th entry R
W
(i, j ) = c
|i −j |−1
. The question we must address
is what value c minimizes e

L
. This problem is atypical in that one does not usually get
57
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
to choose the correlation structure of the noise. However, we will see that the answer is
somewhat instructive.
We note that the answer is not obviously apparent from Equation (7). In particular, we
observe that Var[W
i
] = R
W
(i, i ) = 1/c. Thus, when c is small, the noises W
i
have high
variance and we would expect our estimator to be poor. On the other hand, if c is large
W
i
and W
j
are highly correlated and the separate measurements of X are very dependent.
This would suggest that large values of c will also result in poor MSE. If this argument is
not clear, consider the extreme case in which every W
i
and W
j
have correlation coefficient
ρ
i j
= 1. In this case, our 20 measurements will be all the same and one measurement is as
good as 20 measurements.
To find the optimal value of c, we write a MATLAB function mquiz9(c) to calculate
the MSE for a given c and second function that finds plots the MSE for a range of values
of c.
function [mse,af]=mquiz9(c);
v1=ones(20,1);
RW=toeplitz(c.ˆ((0:19)-1));
RY=(v1*(v1’)) +RW;
af=(inv(RY))*v1;
mse=1-((v1’)*af);
function cmin=mquiz9minc(c);
msec=zeros(size(c));
for k=1:length(c),
[msec(k),af]=mquiz9(c(k));
end
plot(c,msec);
xlabel(’c’);ylabel(’e_Lˆ*’);
[msemin,optk]=min(msec);
cmin=c(optk);
Note in mquiz9 that v1 corresponds to the vector 1 of all ones. The following commands
finds the minimum c and also produces the following graph:
>> c=0.01:0.01:0.99;
>> mquiz9minc(c)
ans =
0.4500
0 0.5 1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
c
e
L *
As we see in the graph, both small values and large values of c result in large MSE.
58
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 10
Quiz 10.1
There are many correct answers to this question. A correct answer specifies enough
random variables to specify the sample path exactly. One choice for an alternate set of
random variables that would specify m(t, s) is
• m(0, s), the number of ongoing calls at the start of the experiment
• N, the number of new calls that arrive during the experiment
• X
1
, . . . , X
N
, the interarrival times of the N new arrivals
• H, the number of calls that hang up during the experiment
• D
1
, . . . , D
H
, the call completion times of the H calls that hang up
Quiz 10.2
(1) We obtain a continuous time, continuous valued process when we record the temper-
ature as a continuous waveform over time.
(2) If at every moment in time, we round the temperature to the nearest degree, then we
obtain a continuous time, discrete valued process.
(3) If we sample the process in part (a) every T seconds, then we obtain a discrete time,
continuous valued process.
(4) Rounding the samples in part (c) to the nearest integer degree yields a discrete time,
discrete valued process.
Quiz 10.3
(1) Each resistor has resistance R in ohms with uniform PDF
f
R
(r) =
_
0.01 950 ≤ r ≤ 1050
0 otherwise
(1)
The probability that a test produces a 1% resistor is
p = P [990 ≤ R ≤ 1010] =
_
1010
990
(0.01) dr = 0.2 (2)
59
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(2) In t seconds, exactly t resistors are tested. Each resistor is a 1% resistor with proba-
bility p, independent of any other resistor. Consequently, the number of 1% resistors
found has the binomial PMF
P
N(t )
(n) =
_ _
t
n
_
p
n
(1 − p)
t −n
n = 0, 1, . . . , t
0 otherwise
(3)
(3) First we will find the PMF of T
1
. This problem is easy if we view each resistor test
as an independent trial. A success occurs on a trial with probability p if we find a
1% resistor. The first 1% resistor is found at time T
1
= t if we observe failures on
trials 1, . . . , t − 1 followed by a success on trial t . Hence, just as in Example 2.11,
T
1
has the geometric PMF
P
T
1
(t ) =
_
(1 − p)
t −1
p t = 1, 2, . . .
9 otherwise
(4)
Since p = 0.2, the probability the first 1% resistor is found in exactly five seconds is
P
T
1
(5) = (0.8)
4
(0.2) = 0.08192.
(4) From Theorem 2.5, a geometric random variable with success probability p has ex-
pected value 1/p. In this problem, E[T
1
] = 1/p = 5.
(5) Note that once we find the first 1% resistor, the number of additional trials needed to
find the second 1% resistor once again has a geometric PMF with expected value 1/p
since each independent trial is a success with probability p. That is, T
2
= T
1
+ T

where T

is independent and identically distributed to T
1
. Thus
E [T
2
|T
1
= 10] = E [T
1
|T
1
= 10] + E
_
T

|T
1
= 10
_
(5)
= 10 + E
_
T

_
= 10 +5 = 15 (6)
Quiz 10.4
Since each X
i
is a N(0, 1) random variable, each X
i
has PDF
f
X(i )
(x) =
1


e
−x
2
/2
(1)
By Theorem 10.1, the joint PDF of X =
_
X
1
· · · X
n
_

is
f
X
(x) = f
X(1),...,X(n)
(x
1
, . . . , x
n
) =
k

i =1
f
X
(x
i
) =
1
(2π)
n/2
e
−(x
2
1
+···+x
2
n
)/2
(2)
60
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 10.5
The first and second hours are nonoverlapping intervals. Since one hour equals 3600
sec and the Poisson process has a rate of 10 packets/sec, the expected number of packets
in each hour is E[M
i
] = α = 36, 000. This implies M
1
and M
2
are independent Poisson
random variables each with PMF
P
M
i
(m) =
_
α
m
e
−α
m!
m = 0, 1, 2, . . .
0 otherwise
(1)
Since M
1
and M
2
are independent, the joint PMF of M
1
and M
2
is
P
M
1
,M
2
(m
1
, m
2
) = P
M
1
(m
1
) P
M
2
(m
2
) =







α
m
1
+m
2
e
−2α
m
1
!m
2
!
m
1
= 0, 1, . . . ;
m
2
= 0, 1, . . . ,
0 otherwise.
(2)
Quiz 10.6
To answer whether N

(t ) is a Poisson process, we look at the interarrival times. Let
X
1
, X
2
, . . . denote the interarrival times of the N(t ) process. Since we count only even-
numbered arrival for N

(t ), the time until the first arrival of the N

(t ) is Y
1
= X
1
+ X
2
.
Since X
1
and X
2
are independent exponential (λ) random variables, Y
1
is an Erlang (n =
2, λ) random variable; see Theorem 6.11. Since Y
i
(t ), the i th interarrival time of the N

(t )
process, has the same PDF as Y
1
(t ), we can conclude that the interarrival times of N

(t )
are not exponential random variables. Thus N

(t ) is not a Poisson process.
Quiz 10.7
First, we note that for t > s,
X(t ) − X(s) =
W(t ) − W(s)

α
(1)
Since W(t ) −W(s) is a Gaussian random variable, Theorem 3.13 states that W(t ) −W(s)
is Gaussian with expected value
E [X(t ) − X(s)] =
E [W(t ) − W(s)]

α
= 0 (2)
and variance
E
_
(W(t ) − W(s))
2
_
=
E
_
(W(t ) − W(s))
2
_
α
=
α(t −s)
α
(3)
Consider s

≤ s < t . Since s ≥ s

, W(t ) − W(s) is independent of W(s

). This implies
[W(t ) − W(s)]/

α is independent of W(s

)/

α for all s ≥ s

. That is, X(t ) − X(s) is
independent of X(s

) for all s ≥ s

. Thus X(t ) is a Brownian motion process with variance
Var[X(t )] = t .
61
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 10.8
First we find the expected value
µ
Y
(t ) = µ
X
(t ) +µ
N
(t ) = µ
X
(t ). (1)
To find the autocorrelation, we observe that since X(t ) and N(t ) are independent and since
N(t ) has zero expected value, E[X(t )N(t

)] = E[X(t )]E[N(t

)] = 0. Since R
Y
(t, τ) =
E[Y(t )Y(t +τ)], we have
R
Y
(t, τ) = E [(X(t ) + N(t )) (X(t +τ) + N(t +τ))] (2)
= E [X(t )X(t +τ)] + E [X(t )N(t +τ)]
+ E [X(t +τ)N(t )] + E [N(t )N(t +τ)] (3)
= R
X
(t, τ) + R
N
(t, τ). (4)
Quiz 10.9
From Definition 10.14, X
1
, X
2
, . . . is a stationary random sequence if for all sets of
time instants n
1
, . . . , n
m
and time offset k,
f
X
n
1
,...,X
n
m
(x
1
, . . . , x
m
) = f
X
n
1
+k
,...,X
n
m
+k
(x
1
, . . . , x
m
) (1)
Since the random sequence is iid,
f
X
n
1
,...,X
n
m
(x
1
, . . . , x
m
) = f
X
(x
1
) f
X
(x
2
) · · · f
X
(x
m
) (2)
Similarly, for time instants n
1
+k, . . . , n
m
+k,
f
X
n
1
+k
,...,X
n
m
+k
(x
1
, . . . , x
m
) = f
X
(x
1
) f
X
(x
2
) · · · f
X
(x
m
) (3)
We can conclude that the iid random sequence is stationary.
Quiz 10.10
We must check whether each function R(τ) meets the conditions of Theorem 10.12:
R(τ) ≥ 0 R(τ) = R(−τ) |R(τ)| ≤ R(0) (1)
(1) R
1
(τ) = e
−|τ|
meets all three conditions and thus is valid.
(2) R
2
(τ) = e
−τ
2
also is valid.
(3) R
3
(τ) = e
−τ
cos τ is not valid because
R
3
(−2π) = e

cos 2π = e

> 1 = R
3
(0) (2)
(4) R
4
(τ) = e
−τ
2
sin τ also cannot be an autocorrelation function because
R
4
(π/2) = e
−π/2
sin π/2 = e
−π/2
> 0 = R
4
(0) (3)
62
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 10.11
(1) The autocorrelation of Y(t ) is
R
Y
(t, τ) = E [Y(t )Y(t +τ)] (1)
= E [X(−t )X(−t −τ)] (2)
= R
X
(−t −(−t −τ)) = R
X
(τ) (3)
Since E[Y(t )] = E[X(−t )] = µ
X
, we can conclude that Y(t ) is a wide sense
stationary process. In fact, we see that by viewing a process backwards in time, we
see the same second order statistics.
(2) Since X(t ) and Y(t ) are both wide sense stationary processes, we can check whether
they are jointly wide sense stationary by seeing if R
XY
(t, τ) is just a function of τ.
In this case,
R
XY
(t, τ) = E [X(t )Y(t +τ)] (4)
= E [X(t )X(−t −τ)] (5)
= R
X
(t −(−t −τ)) = R
X
(2t +τ) (6)
Since R
XY
(t, τ) depends on both t and τ, we conclude that X(t ) and Y(t ) are not
jointly wide sense stationary. To see why this is, suppose R
X
(τ) = e
−|τ|
so that
samples of X(t ) far apart in time have almost no correlation. In this case, as t gets
larger, Y(t ) = X(−t ) and X(t ) become less and less correlated.
Quiz 10.12
From the problem statement,
E [X(t )] = E [X(t +1)] = 0 (1)
E [X(t )X(t +1)] = 1/2 (2)
Var[X(t )] = Var[X(t +1)] = 1 (3)
The Gaussian random vector X =
_
X(t ) X(t +1)
_

has covariance matrix and corre-
sponding inverse
C
X
=
_
1 1/2
1/2 1
_
C
−1
X
=
4
3
_
1 −1/2
−1/2 1
_
(4)
Since
x

C
−1
X
x =
_
x
0
x
1
_

4
3
_
1 −1/2
−1/2 1
_ _
x
0
x
1
_
=
4
3
_
x
2
0
− x
0
x
+
x
2
1
_
(5)
the joint PDF of X(t ) and X(t +1) is the Gaussian vector PDF
f
X(t ),X(t +1)
(x
0
, x
1
) =
1
(2π)
n/2
[det (C
X
)]
1/2
exp
_

1
2
x

C
−1
X
x
_
(6)
=
1


2
e

2
3
_
x
2
0
−x
0
x
1
+x
2
1
_
(7)
63
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
t

M
(
t
)
Figure 4: Sample path of 100 minutes of the blocking switch of Quiz 10.13.
Quiz 10.13
The simple structure of the switch simulation of Example 10.28 admits a deceptively
simple solution in terms of the vector of arrivals A and the vector of departures D. With the
introduction of call blocking. we cannot generate these vectors all at once. In particular,
when an arrival occurs at time t , we need to know that M(t ), the number of ongoing calls,
satisfies M(t ) < c = 120. Otherwise, when M(t ) = c, we must block the call. Call
blocking can be implemented by setting the service time of the call to zero so that the call
departs as soon as it arrives.
The blocking switch is an example of a discrete event system. The system evolves via
a sequence of discrete events, namely arrivals and departures, at discrete time instances. A
simulation of the system moves from one time instant to the next by maintaining a chrono-
logical schedule of future events (arrivals and departures) to be executed. The program
simply executes the event at the head of the schedule. The logic of such a simulation is
1. Start at time t = 0 with an empty system. Schedule the first arrival to occur at S
1
, an
exponential (λ) random variable.
2. Examine the head-of-schedule event.
• When the head-of-schedule event is the kth arrival is at time t , check the state
M(t ).
– If M(t ) < c, admit the arrival, increase the system state n by 1, and sched-
ule a departure to occur at time t + S
n
, where S
k
is an exponential (λ)
random variable.
– If M(t ) = c, block the arrival, do not schedule a departure event.
• If the head of schedule event is a departure, reduce the system state n by 1.
3. Delete the head-of-schedule event and go to step 2.
After the head-of-schedule event is completed and any new events (departures in this sys-
tem) are scheduled, we know the system state cannot change until the next scheduled event.
64
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Thus we know that M(t ) will stay the same until then. In our simulation, we use the vector
t as the set of time instances at which we inspect the system state. Thus for all times t(i)
between the current head-of-schedule event and the next, we set m(i) to the current switch
state.
The complete program is shown in Figure 5. In most programming languages, it is
common to implement the event schedule as a linked list where each item in the list has
a data structure indicating an event timestamp and the type of the event. In MATLAB, a
simple (but not elegant) way to do this is to have maintain two vectors: time is a list
of timestamps of scheduled events and event is a the list of event types. In this case,
event(i)=1 if the i th scheduled event is an arrival, or event(i)=-1 if the i th sched-
uled event is a departure.
When the program is passed a vector t, the output [m a b] is such that m(i) is the
number of ongoing calls at time t(i) while a and b are the number of admits and blocks.
The following instructions
t=0:0.1:5000;
[m,a,b]=simblockswitch(10,0.1,120,t);
plot(t,m);
generated a simulation lasting 5,000 minutes. A sample path of the first 100 minutes of
that simulation is shown in Figure 4. The 5,000 minute full simulation produced a=49658
admitted calls and b=239 blocked calls. We can estimate the probability a call is blocked
as
ˆ
P
b
=
b
a +b
= 0.0048. (1)
In Chapter 12, we will learn that the exact blocking probability is given by Equation (12.93),
a result known as the “Erlang-B formula.” From the Erlang-B formula, we can calculate
that the exact blocking probability is P
b
= 0.0057. One reason our simulation underesti-
mates the blocking probability is that in a 5,000 minute simulation, roughly the first 100
minutes are needed to load up the switch since the switch is idle when the simulation starts
at time t = 0. However, this says that roughly the first two percent of the simulation time
was unusual. Thus this would account for only part of the disparity. The rest of the gap
between 0.0048 and 0.0057 is that a simulation that includes only 239 blocks is not all that
likely to give a very accurate result for the blocking probability.
Note that in Chapter 12, we will learn that the blocking switch is an example of an
M/M/c/c queue, a kind of Markov chain. Chapter 12 develops techniques for analyzing
and simulating systems described by Markov chains that are much simpler than the discrete
event simulation technique shown here. Nevertheless, for very complicated systems, the
discrete event simulation is widely-used and often very efficient simulation method.
65
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
function [M,admits,blocks]=simblockswitch(lam,mu,c,t);
blocks=0; %total # blocks
admits=0; %total # admits
M=zeros(size(t));
n=0; % # in system
time=[ exponentialrv(lam,1) ];
event=[ 1 ]; %first event is an arrival
timenow=0;
tmax=max(t);
while (timenow<tmax)
M((timenow<=t)&(t<time(1)))=n;
timenow=time(1);
eventnow=event(1);
event(1)=[ ]; time(1)= [ ]; % clear current event
if (eventnow==1) % arrival
arrival=timenow+exponentialrv(lam,1); % next arrival
b4arrival=time<arrival;
event=[event(b4arrival) 1 event(˜b4arrival)];
time=[time(b4arrival) arrival time(˜b4arrival)];
if n<c %call admitted
admits=admits+1;
n=n+1;
depart=timenow+exponentialrv(mu,1);
b4depart=time<depart;
event=[event(b4depart) -1 event(˜b4depart)];
time=[time(b4depart) depart time(˜b4depart)];
else
blocks=blocks+1; %one more block, immed departure
disp(sprintf(’Time %10.3d Admits %10d Blocks %10d’,...
timenow,admits,blocks));
end
elseif (eventnow==-1) %departure
n=n-1;
end
end
Figure 5: Discrete event simulation of the blocking switch of Quiz 10.13.
66
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 11
Quiz 11.1
By Theorem 11.2,
µ
Y
= µ
X
_

−∞
h(t )dt = 2
_

0
e
−t
dt = 2 (1)
Since R
X
(τ) = δ(τ), the autocorrelation function of the output is
R
Y
(τ) =
_

−∞
h(u)
_

−∞
h(v)δ(τ +u −v) dv du =
_

−∞
h(u)h(τ +u) du (2)
For τ > 0, we have
R
Y
(τ) =
_

0
e
−u
e
−τ−u
du = e
−τ
_

0
e
−2u
du =
1
2
e
−τ
(3)
For τ < 0, we can deduce that R
Y
(τ) =
1
2
e
−|τ|
by symmetry. Just to be safe though, we
can double check. For τ < 0,
R
Y
(τ) =
_

−τ
h(u)h(τ +u) du =
_

−τ
e
−u
e
−τ−u
du =
1
2
e
τ
(4)
Hence,
R
Y
(τ) =
1
2
e
−|τ|
(5)
Quiz 11.2
The expected value of the output is
µ
Y
= µ
X

n=−∞
h
n
= 0.5(1 +−1) = 0 (1)
The autocorrelation of the output is
R
Y
[n] =
1

i =0
1

j =0
h
i
h
j
R
X
[n +i − j ] (2)
= 2R
X
[n] − R
X
[n −1] − R
X
[n +1] =
_
1 n = 0
0 otherwise
(3)
Since µ
Y
= 0, The variance of Y
n
is Var[Y
n
] = E[Y
2
n
] = R
Y
[0] = 1.
67
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
−15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
f

S
X
(
f
)
−1500−1000 −500 0 500 1000 1500
0
2
4
6
8
x 10
f

S
X
(
f
)
−0.2 −0.1 0 0.1 0.2
−5
0
5
10
τ

R
X
(
τ
)
−2 −1 0 1 2
x 10
−3
−5
0
5
10
τ

R
X
(
τ
)
(a) W = 10 (b) W = 1000
Figure 6: The autocorrelation R
X
(τ) and power spectral density S
X
( f ) for process X(t ) in
Quiz 11.5.
Quiz 11.3
By Theorem 11.8, Y =
_
Y
33
Y
34
Y
35
_

is a Gaussian random vector since X
n
is
a Gaussian random process. Moreover, by Theorem 11.5, each Y
n
has expected value
E[Y
n
] = µ
X


n=−∞
h
n
= 0. Thus E[Y] = 0. Fo find the PDF of the Gaussian vector
Y, we need to find the covariance matrix C
Y
, which equals the correlation matrix R
Y
since
Y has zero expected value. One way to find the R
Y
is to observe that R
Y
has the Toeplitz
structure of Theorem 11.6 and to use Theorem 11.5 to find the autocorrelation function
R
Y
[n] =

i =−∞

j =−∞
h
i
h
j
R
X
[n +i − j ]. (1)
Despite the fact that R
X
[k] is an impulse, using Equation (1) is surprisingly tedious because
we still need to sum over all i and j such that n +i − j = 0.
In this problem, it is simpler to observe that Y = HX where
X =
_
X
30
X
31
X
32
X
33
X
34
X
35
_

(2)
and
H =
1
4


1 1 1 1 0 0
0 1 1 1 1 0
0 0 1 1 1 1


. (3)
In this case, following Theorem 11.7, or by directly applying Theorem 5.13 with µ
X
= 0
and A = H, we obtain R
Y
= HR
X
H

. Since R
X
[n] = δ
n
, R
X
= I, the identity matrix.
68
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Thus
C
Y
= R
Y
= HH

=
1
16


4 3 2
3 4 3
2 3 4


. (4)
It follows (very quickly if you use MATLAB for 3 ×3 matrix inversion) that
C
−1
Y
= 16


7/12 −1/2 1/12
−1/2 1 −1/2
1/12 −1/2 7/12


. (5)
Thus, the PDF of Y is
f
Y
(y) =
1
(2π)
3/2
[det (C
Y
)]
1/2
exp
_

1
2
y

C
−1
Y
y
_
. (6)
A disagreeable amount of algebra will show det(C
Y
) = 3/1024 and that the PDF can be
“simplified” to
f
Y
(y) =
16


3
exp
_
−8
_
7
12
y
2
33
+ y
2
34
+
7
12
y
2
35
− y
33
y
34
+
1
6
y
33
y
35
− y
34
y
35
__
. (7)
Equation (7) shows that one of the nicest features of the multivariate Gaussian distribution
is that y

C
−1
Y
y is a very concise representation of the cross-terms in the exponent of f
Y
(y).
Quiz 11.4
This quiz is solved using Theorem 11.9 for the case of k = 1 and M = 2. In this case,
X
n
=
_
X
n−1
X
n
_

and
R
X
n
=
_
R
X
[0] R
X
[1]
R
X
[1] R
X
[0]
_
=
_
1.1 0.9
0.9 1.1
_
(1)
and
R
X
n
X
n+1
= E
__
X
n−1
X
n
_
X
n+1
_
=
_
R
X
[2]
R
X
[1]
_
=
_
0.81
0.9
_
. (2)
The MMSE linear first order filter for predicting X
n+1
at time n is the filter h such that
←−
h = R
−1
X
n
R
X
n
X
n+1
=
_
1.1 0.9
0.9 1.1
_
−1
_
0.81
0.9
_
=
1
400
_
81
261
_
. (3)
It follows that the filter is h =
_
261/400 81/400
_

and the MMSE linear predictor is
ˆ
X
n+1
=
81
400
X
n−1
+
261
400
X
n
. (4)
to find the mean square error, one approach is to follow the method of Example 11.13 and
to directly calculate
e

L
= E
_
(X
n+1

ˆ
X
n+1
)
2
_
. (5)
69
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
This method is workable for this simple problem but becomes increasingly tedious for
higher order filters. Instead, we can derive the mean square error for an arbitary prediction
filter h. Since
ˆ
X
n+1
=
←−
h

X
n
,
e

L
= E
_
_
X
n+1

←−
h

X
n
_
2
_
(6)
= E
_
(X
n+1

←−
h

X
n
)(X
n+1

←−
h

X
n
)

_
(7)
= E
_
(X
n+1

←−
h

X
n
)(X
n+1
−X

n
←−
h )
_
(8)
After a bit of algebra, we obtain
e

L
= R
X
[0] −2
←−
h

R
X
n
X
n+1
+
←−
h

R
X
n
←−
h (9)
(10)
with the substitution
←−
h = R
−1
X
n
R
X
n
X
n+1
, we obtain
e

L
= R
X
[0] −R

X
n
X
n+1
R
−1
X
n
R
X
n
X
n+1
(11)
= R
X
[0] −
←−
h

R
X
n
X
n+1
(12)
Note that this is essentially the same result as Theorem 9.7 with Y = X
n
, X = X
n+1
and
ˆ a

=
←−
h

. It is noteworthy that the result is derived in a much simpler way in the proof of
Theorem 9.7 by using the orthoginality property of the LMSE estimator.
In any case, the mean square error is
e

L
= R
X
[0] −
←−
h

R
X
n
X
n+1
= 1.1 −
1
400
_
81 261
_
_
0.81
0.9
_
=
506
1451
= 0.3487. (13)
recalling that the blind estimate would yield a mean square error of Var[X] = 1.1, we see
that observing X
n−1
and X
n
improves the accuracy of our prediction of X
n+1
.
Quiz 11.5
(1) By Theorem 11.13(b), the average power of X(t ) is
E
_
X
2
(t )
_
=
_

−∞
S
X
( f ) d f =
_
W
−W
5
W
d f = 10 Watts (1)
(2) The autocorrelation function is the inverse Fourier transform of S
X
( f ). Consulting
Table 11.1, we note that
S
X
( f ) = 10
1
2W
rect
_
f
2W
_
(2)
It follows that the inverse transform of S
X
( f ) is
R
X
(τ) = 10 sinc(2Wτ) = 10
sin(2πWτ)
2πWτ
(3)
(3) For W = 10 Hz and W = 1 kHZ, graphs of S
X
( f ) and R
X
(τ) appear in Figure 6.
70
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 11.6
In a sampled system, the discrete time impulse δ[n] has a flat discrete Fourier transform.
That is, if R
X
[n] = 10δ[n], then
S
X
(φ) =

n=−∞
10δ[n]e
−j 2πφn
= 10 (1)
Thus, R
X
[n] = 10δ[n]. (This quiz is really lame!)
Quiz 11.7
Since Y(t ) = X(t −t
0
),
R
XY
(t, τ) = E [X(t )Y(t +τ)] = E [X(t )X(t +τ −t
0
)] = R
X
(τ −t
0
) (1)
We see that R
XY
(t, τ) = R
XY
(τ) = R
X
(τ − t
0
). From Table 11.1, we recall the prop-
erty that g(τ − τ
0
) has Fourier transform G( f )e
−j 2π f τ
0
. Thus the Fourier transform of
R
XY
(τ) = R
X
(τ −t
0
) = g(τ −t
0
) is
S
XY
( f ) = S
X
( f )e
−j 2π f t
0
. (2)
Quiz 11.8
We solve this quiz using Theorem 11.17. First we need some preliminary facts. Let
a
0
= 5,000 so that
R
X
(τ) =
1
a
0
a
0
e
−a
0
|τ|
. (1)
Consulting with the Fourier transforms in Table 11.1, we see that
S
X
( f ) =
1
a
0
2a
2
0
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
=
2a
0
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
(2)
The RC filter has impulse response h(t ) = a
1
e
−a
1
t
u(t ), where u(t ) is the unit step function
and a
1
= 1/RC where RC = 10
−4
is the filter time constant. From Table 11.1,
H( f ) =
a
1
a
1
+ j 2π f
(3)
(1) Theorem 11.17,
S
XY
( f ) = H( f )S
X
( f ) =
2a
0
a
1
[a
1
+ j 2π f ]
_
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
_. (4)
(2) Again by Theorem 11.17,
S
Y
( f ) = H

( f )S
XY
( f ) = |H( f )|
2
S
X
( f ). (5)
71
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Note that
|H( f )|
2
= H( f )H

( f ) =
a
1
(a
1
+ j 2π f )
a
1
(a
1
− j 2π f )
=
a
2
1
a
2
1
+(2π f )
2
(6)
Thus,
S
Y
( f ) = |H( f )|
2
S
X
( f ) =
2a
0
a
2
1
_
a
2
1
+(2π f )
2
_ _
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
_ (7)
(3) To find the average power at the filter output, we can either use basic calculus and
calculate
_

−∞
S
Y
( f ) d f directly or we can find R
Y
(τ) as an inverse transform of
S
Y
( f ). Using partial fractions and the Fourier transform table, the latter method is
actually less algebra. In particular, some algebra will show that
S
Y
( f ) =
K
0
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
+
K
1
a
1
+(2π f )
2
(8)
where
K
0
=
2a
0
a
2
1
a
2
1
−a
2
0
, K
1
=
−2a
0
a
2
1
a
2
1
−a
2
0
. (9)
Thus,
S
Y
( f ) =
K
0
2a
2
0
2a
2
0
a
2
0
+(2π f )
2
+
K
1
2a
2
1
2a
2
1
a
1
+(2π f )
2
. (10)
Consulting with Table 11.1, we see that
R
Y
(τ) =
K
0
2a
2
0
a
0
e
−a
0
|τ|
+
K
1
2a
2
1
a
1
e
−a
1
|τ|
(11)
Substituting the values of K
0
and K
1
, we obtain
R
Y
(τ) =
a
2
1
e
−a
0
|τ|
−a
0
a
1
e
−a
1
|τ|
a
2
1
−a
2
0
. (12)
The average power of the Y(t ) process is
R
Y
(0) =
a
1
a
1
+a
0
=
2
3
. (13)
Note that the input signal has average power R
X
(0) = 1. Since the RC filter has a 3dB
bandwidth of 10,000 rad/sec and the signal X(t ) has most of its its signal energy below
5,000 rad/sec, the output signal has almost as much power as the input.
72
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz 11.9
This quiz implements an example of Equations (11.146) and (11.147) for a system in
which we filter Y(t ) = X(t ) + N(t ) to produce an optimal linear estimate of X(t ). The
solution to this quiz is just to find the filter
ˆ
H( f ) using Equation (11.146) and to calculate
the mean square error e
L
∗ using Equation (11.147).
Comment: Since the text omitted the derivations of Equations (11.146) and (11.147), we
note that Example 10.24 showed that
R
Y
(τ) = R
X
(τ) + R
N
(τ), R
Y X
(τ) = R
X
(τ). (1)
Taking Fourier transforms, it follows that
S
Y
( f ) = S
X
( f ) + S
N
( f ), S
Y X
( f ) = S
X
( f ). (2)
Now we can go on to the quiz, at peace with the derivations.
(1) Since µ
N
= 0, R
N
(0) = Var[N] = 1. This implies
R
N
(0) =
_

−∞
S
N
( f ) d f =
_
B
−B
N
0
d f = 2N
0
B (3)
Thus N
0
= 1/(2B). Because the noise process N(t ) has constant power R
N
(0) = 1,
decreasing the single-sided bandwidth B increases the power spectral density of the
noise over frequencies | f | < B.
(2) Since R
X
(τ) = sinc(2Wτ), where W = 5,000 Hz, we see from Table 11.1 that
S
X
( f ) =
1
10
4
rect
_
f
10
4
_
. (4)
The noise power spectral density can be written as
S
N
( f ) = N
0
rect
_
f
2B
_
=
1
2B
rect
_
f
2B
_
, (5)
From Equation (11.146), the optimal filter is
ˆ
H( f ) =
S
X
( f )
S
X
( f ) + S
N
( f )
=
1
10
4
rect
_
f
10
4
_
1
10
4
rect
_
f
10
4
_
+
1
2B
rect
_
f
2B
_. (6)
73
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
(3) We produce the output
ˆ
X(t ) by passing the noisy signal Y(t ) through the filter
ˆ
H( f ).
From Equation (11.147), the mean square error of the estimate is
e

L
=
_

−∞
S
X
( f )S
N
( f )
S
X
( f ) + S
N
( f )
d f (7)
=
_

−∞
1
10
4
rect
_
f
10
4
_
1
2B
rect
_
f
2B
_
1
10
4
rect
_
f
10
4
_
+
1
2B
rect
_
f
2B
_ d f. (8)
To evaluate the MSE e

L
, we need to whether B ≤ W. Since the problem asks us to
find the largest possible B, let’s suppose B ≤ W. We can go back and consider the
case B > W later. When B ≤ W, the MSE is
e

L
=
_
B
−B
1
10
4
1
2B
1
10
4
+
1
2B
d f =
1
10
4
1
10
4
+
1
2B
=
1
1 +
5,000
B
(9)
To obtain MSE e

L
≤ 0.05 requires B ≤ 5,000/19 = 263.16 Hz.
Although this completes the solution to the quiz, what is happening may not be obvious.
The noise power is always Var[N] = 1 Watt, for all values of B. As B is decreased, the PSD
S
N
( f ) becomes increasingly tall, but only over a bandwidth B that is decreasing. Thus as
B descreases, the filter
ˆ
H( f ) makes an increasingly deep and narrow notch at frequencies
| f | ≤ B. Two examples of the filter
ˆ
H( f ) are shown in Figure 7. As B shrinks, the filter
suppresses less of the signal of X(t ). The result is that the MSE goes down.
Finally, we note that we can choose B very large and also achieve MSE e

L
= 0.05. In
particular, when B > W = 5000, S
N
( f ) = 1/2B over frequencies | f | < W. In this case,
the Wiener filter
ˆ
H( f ) is an ideal (flat) lowpass filter
ˆ
H( f ) =



1
10
4
1
10
4
+
1
2B
| f | < 5,000,
0 otherwise.
(10)
Thus increasing B spreads the constant 1 watt of power of N(t ) over more bandwidth. The
Wiener filter removes the noise that is outside the band of the desired signal. The mean
square error is
e

L
=
_
5000
−5000
1
10
4
1
2B
1
10
4
+
1
2B
d f =
1
2B
1
10
4
+
1
2B
=
1
B
5000
+1
(11)
In this case, B ≥ 9.5 ×10
4
guarantees e

L
≤ 0.05.
Quiz 11.10
It is fairly straightforward to find S
X
(φ) and S
Y
(φ). The only thing to keep in mind is
to use fftc to transform the autocorrelation R
X
[ f ] into the power spectral density S
X
(φ).
The following MATLAB program generates and plots the functions shown in Figure 8
74
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
−5000 −2000 0 2000 5000
0
0.5
1
f

H
(
f
)
−5000 −2000 0 2000 5000
0
0.5
1
f

H
(
f
)
B = 500 B = 2500
Figure 7: Wiener filter for Quiz 11.9.
%mquiz11.m
N=32;
rx=[2 4 2]; SX=fftc(rx,N); %autocorrelation and PSD
stem(0:N-1,abs(sx));
xlabel(’n’);ylabel(’S_X(n/N)’);
h2=0.5*[1 1]; H2=fft(h2,N); %impulse/filter response: M=2
SY2=SX.* ((abs(H2)).ˆ2);
figure; stem(0:N-1,abs(SY2)); %PSD of Y for M=2
xlabel(’n’);ylabel(’S_{Y_2}(n/N)’);
h10=0.1*ones(1,10); H10=fft(h10,N); %impulse/filter response: M=10
SY10=sx.*((abs(H10)).ˆ2);
figure; stem(0:N-1,abs(SY10));
xlabel(’n’);ylabel(’S_{Y_{10}}(n/N)’);
Relative to M = 2, when M = 10, the filter H(φ) filters out almost all of the high
frequency components of X(t ). In the context of Example 11.26, the low pass moving
average filter for M = 10 removes the high frquency components and results in a filter
output that varies very slowly.
As an aside, note that the vectors SX, SY2 and SY10 in mquiz11 should all be real-
valued vectors. However, the finite numerical precision of MATLAB results in tiny imagi-
nary parts. Although these imaginary parts have no computational significance, they tend
to confuse the stem function. Hence, we generate stem plots of the magnitude of each
power spectral density.
75
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
5
10
n
S
X
(
n
/
N
)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
5
10
n
S
Y
2
(
n
/
N
)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0
5
10
n
S
Y
1
0
(
n
/
N
)
Figure 8: For Quiz 11.10, graphs of S
X
(φ), S
Y
(n/N) for M = 2, and S
φ
(n/N) for M = 10
using an N = 32 point DFT.
76
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Quiz Solutions – Chapter 12
Quiz 12.1
The system has two states depending on whether the previous packet was received in
error. From the problem statement, we are given the conditional probabilities
P
_
X
n+1
= 0|X
n
= 0
_
= 0.99 P
_
X
n+1
= 1|X
n
= 1
_
= 0.9 (1)
Since each X
n
must be either 0 or 1, we can conclude that
P
_
X
n+1
= 1|X
n
= 0
_
= 0.01 P
_
X
n+1
= 0|X
n
= 1
_
= 0.1 (2)
These conditional probabilities correspond to the transition matrix and Markov chain:
0 1
0.01
0.1
0.99 0.9
P =
_
0.99 0.01
0.10 0.90
_
(3)
Quiz 12.2
From the problem statement, the Markov chain and the transition matrix are
0 1 1
0.6 0.2
0.2 0.6
0.4 0.6 0.4
P =


0.4 0.6 0
0.2 0.6 0.2
0 0.6 0.4


(1)
The eigenvalues of P are
λ
1
= 0 λ
2
= 0.4 λ
3
= 1 (2)
We can diagonalize P into
P = S
−1
DS =


−0.6 0.5 1
0.4 0 1
−0.6 −0.5 1




λ
1
0 0
0 λ
2
0
0 0 λ
3




−0.5 1 −0.5
1 0 −1
0.2 0.6 0.2


(3)
where s
i
, the i th row of S, is the left eigenvector of P satisfying s
i
P = λ
i
s
i
. Algebra will
verify that the n-step transition matrix is
P
n
= S
−1
D
n
S =


0.2 0.6 0.2
0.2 0.6 0.2
0.2 0.6 0.2


+(0.4)
n


0.5 0 −0.5
0 0 0
−0.5 0 0.5


(4)
Quiz 12.3
The Markov chain describing the factory status and the corresponding state transition
matrix are
77
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
2
0 1
0.9
0.1
1
1
P =


0.9 0.1 0
0 0 1
1 0 0


(1)
With π =
_
π
0
π
1
π
2
_

, the system of equations π

= π

P yields π
1
= 0.1π
0
and
π
2
= π
1
. This implies
π
0

1

2
= π
0
(1 +0.1 +0.1) = 1 (2)
It follows that the limiting state probabilities are
π
0
= 5/6, π
1
= 1/12, π
2
= 1/12. (3)
Quiz 12.4
The communicating classes are
C
1
= {0, 1} C
2
= {2, 3} C
3
= {4, 5, 6} (1)
The states in C
1
and C
3
are aperiodic. The states in C
2
have period 2. Once the system
enters a state in C
1
, the class C
1
is never left. Thus the states in C
1
are recurrent. That
is, C
1
is a recurrent class. Similarly, the states in C
3
are recurrent. On the other hand, the
states in C
2
are transient. Once the system exits C
2
, the states in C
2
are never reentered.
Quiz 12.5
At any time t , the state n can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .. The state transition proba-
bilities are
P
n−1,n
= P [K > n|K > n −1] =
P [K > n]
P [K > n −1]
(1)
P
n−1,0
= P [K = n|K > n −1] =
P [K = n]
P [K > n −1]
(2)
(3)
The Markov chain resembles
0 1
P K=2 [ ]
P K= [ 1]
3 4
P K=4 [ ]
2
P K=3 [ ]
P K=5 [ ]
1 1 1 1 1
… ...
78
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
The stationary probabilities satisfy
π
0
= π
0
P [K = 1] +π
1
, (4)
π
1
= π
0
P [K = 2] +π
2
, (5)
.
.
.
π
k−1
= π
0
P [K = k] +π
k
, k = 1, 2, . . . (6)
From Equation (4), we obtain
π
1
= π
0
(1 − P [K = 1]) = π
0
P [K > 1] (7)
Similarly, Equation (5) implies
π
2
= π
1
−π
0
P [K = 2] = π
0
(P [K > 1] − P [K = 2]) = π
0
P [K > 2] (8)
This suggests that π
k
= π
0
P[K > k]. We verify this pattern by showing that π
k
=
π
0
P[K > k] satisfies Equation (6):
π
0
P [K > k −1] = π
0
P [K = k] +π
0
P [K > k] . (9)
When we apply


k=0
π
k
= 1, we obtain π
0


n=0
P[K > k] = 1. From Problem 2.5.11,
we recall that


k=0
P[K > k] = E[K]. This implies
π
n
=
P [K > n]
E [K]
(10)
This Markov chain models repeated random countdowns. The system state is the time until
the counter expires. When the counter expires, the system is in state 0, and we randomly
reset the counter to a new value K = k and then we count down k units of time. Since we
spend one unit of time in each state, including state 0, we have k −1 units of time left after
the state 0 counter reset. If we have a random variable W such that the PMF of W satisfies
P
W
(n) = π
n
, then W has a discrete PMF representing the remaining time of the counter at
a time in the distant future.
Quiz 12.6
(1) By inspection, the number of transitions need to return to state 0 is always a multiple
of 2. Thus the period of state 0 is d = 2.
(2) To find the stationary probabilities, we solve the system of equations π = πP and

3
i =0
π
i
= 1:
π
0
= (3/4)π
1
+(1/4)π
3
(1)
π
1
= (1/4)π
0
+(1/4)π
2
(2)
π
2
= (1/4)π
1
+(3/4)π
3
(3)
1 = π
0

1

2

3
(4)
79
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Solving the second and third equations for π
2
and π
3
yields
π
2
= 4π
1
−π
0
π
3
= (4/3)π
2
−(1/3)π
1
= 5π
1
−(4/3)π
0
(5)
Substituting π
3
back into the first equation yields
π
0
= (3/4)π
1
+(1/4)π
3
= (3/4)π
1
+(5/4)π
1
−(1/3)π
0
(6)
This implies π
1
= (2/3)π
0
. It follows from the first and second equations that
π
2
= (5/3)π
0
and π
3
= 2π
0
. Lastly, we choose π
0
so the state probabilities sum to
1:
1 = π
0

1

2

3
= π
0
_
1 +
2
3
+
5
3
+2
_
=
16
3
π
0
(7)
It follows that the state probabilities are
π
0
=
3
16
π
1
=
2
16
π
2
=
5
16
π
3
=
6
16
(8)
(3) Since the system starts in state 0 at time 0, we can use Theorem 12.14 to find the
limiting probability that the system is in state 0 at time nd:
lim
n→∞
P
00
(nd) = dπ
0
=
3
8
(9)
Quiz 12.7
The Markov chain has the same structure as that in Example 12.22. The only difference
is the modified transition rates:
0 1
1
3 4
( ) 2/3
a
1 - ( ) 2/3
a
( ) 3/4
a
1 - 3/4 ( )
a
( ) 4/5
a
1 - 4/5 ( )
a
2
( ) 1/2
a
1- 1/2 ( )
a

The event T
00
> n occurs if the system reaches state n before returning to state 0, which
occurs with probability
P [T
00
> n] = 1 ×
_
1
2
_
α
×
_
2
3
_
α
×· · · ×
_
n −1
n
_
α
=
_
1
n
_
α
. (1)
Thus the CDF of T
00
satisfies F
T
00
(n) = 1−P[T
00
> n] = 1−1/n
α
. To determine whether
state 0 is recurrent, we observe that for all α > 0
P [V
00
] = lim
n→∞
F
T
00
(n) = lim
n→∞
1 −
1
n
α
= 1. (2)
80
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Thus state 0 is recurrent for all α > 0. Since the chain has only one communicating class,
all states are recurrent. ( We also note that if α = 0, then all states are transient.)
To determine whether the chain is null recurrent or positive recurrent, we need to calcu-
late E[T
00
]. In Example 12.24, we did this by deriving the PMF P
T
00
(n). In this problem,
it will be simpler to use the result of Problem 2.5.11 which says that


k=0
P[K > k] =
E[K] for any non-negative integer-valued random variable K. Applying this result, the
expected time to return to state 0 is
E [T
00
] =

n=0
P [T
00
> n] = 1 +

n=1
1
n
α
. (3)
For 0 < α ≤ 1, 1/n
α
≥ 1/n and it follows that
E [T
00
] ≥ 1 +

n=1
1
n
= ∞. (4)
We conclude that the Markov chain is null recurrent for 0 < α ≤ 1. On the other hand, for
α > 1,
E [T
00
] = 2 +

n=2
1
n
α
. (5)
Note that for all n ≥ 2
1
n
α

_
n
n−1
dx
x
α
(6)
This implies
E [T
00
] ≤ 2 +

n=2
_
n
n−1
dx
x
α
(7)
= 2 +
_

1
dx
x
α
(8)
= 2 +
x
−α+1
−α +1
¸
¸
¸
¸

1
= 2 +
1
α −1
< ∞ (9)
Thus for all α > 1, the Markov chain is positive recurrent.
Quiz 12.8
The number of customers in the ”friendly” store is given by the Markov chain
1 i i+1
p p p
( )( ) 1-p 1-q ( )( ) 1-p 1-q ( )( ) 1-p 1-q ( )( ) 1-p 1-q
( ) 1-p q ( ) 1-p q ( ) 1-p q ( ) 1-p q
0
××× ×××
81
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
In the above chain, we note that (1 − p)q is the probability that no new customer arrives,
an existing customer gets one unit of service and then departs the store.
By applying Theorem 12.13 with state space partitioned between S = {0, 1, . . . , i } and
S

= {i +1, i +2, . . .}, we see that for any state i ≥ 0,
π
i
p = π
i +1
(1 − p)q. (1)
This implies
π
i +1
=
p
(1 − p)q
π
i
. (2)
Since Equation (2) holds for i = 0, 1, . . ., we have that π
i
= π
0
α
i
where
α =
p
(1 − p)q
. (3)
Requiring the state probabilities to sum to 1, we have that for α < 1,

i =0
π
i
= π
0

i =0
α
i
=
π
0
1 −α
= 1. (4)
Thus for α < 1, the limiting state probabilities are
π
i
= (1 −α)α
i
, i = 0, 1, 2, . . . (5)
In addition, for α ≥ 1 or, equivalently, p ≥ q/(1 − q), the limiting state probabilities do
not exist.
Quiz 12.9
The continuous time Markov chain describing the processor is
0 1
2
3.01
3 4
2
3
2
3
2
2
3
0.01
0.01
0.01
Note that q
10
= 3.1 since the task completes at rate 3 per msec and the processor reboots
at rate 0.1 per msec and the rate to state 0 is the sum of those two rates. From the Markov
chain, we obtain the following useful equations for the stationary distribution.
5.01p
1
= 2p
0
+3p
2
5.01p
2
= 2p
1
+3p
3
5.01p
3
= 2p
2
+3p
4
3.01p
4
= 2p
3
We can solve these equations by working backward and solving for p
4
in terms of p
3
, p
3
in terms of p
2
and so on, yielding
p
4
=
20
31
p
3
p
3
=
620
981
p
2
p
2
=
19620
31431
p
1
p
1
=
628, 620
1, 014, 381
p
0
(1)
82
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195
Applying p
0
+ p
1
+ p
2
+ p
3
+ p
4
= 1 yields p
0
= 1, 014, 381/2, 443, 401 and the
stationary probabilities are
p
0
= 0.4151 p
1
= 0.2573 p
2
= 0.1606 p
3
= 0.1015 p
4
= 0.0655 (2)
Quiz 12.10
The M/M/c/∞queue has Markov chain
c c+1 1 0
λ λ λ λ λ
µ 2µ
cµ cµ cµ
From the Markov chain, the stationary probabilities must satisfy
p
n
=
_
(ρ/n) p
n−1
n = 1, 2, . . . , c
(ρ/c) p
n−1
n = c +1, c +2, . . .
(1)
It is straightforward to show that this implies
p
n
=
_
p
0
ρ
n
/n! n = 1, 2, . . . , c
p
0
(ρ/c)
n−c
ρ
c
/c! n = c +1, c +2, . . .
(2)
The requirement that


n=0
p
n
= 1 yields
p
0
=
_
c

n=0
ρ
n
/n! +
ρ
c
c!
ρ/c
1 −ρ/c
_
−1
(3)
83
Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901
Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Functions for Random Variables
bernoullipmf y=bernoullipmf(p,x) Input: p is the success probability of a Bernoulli random variable X , x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)).

function pv=bernoullipmf(p,x) %For Bernoulli (p) rv X %input = vector x %output = vector pv %such that pv(i)=Prob(X=x(i)) pv=(1-p)*(x==0) + p*(x==1); pv=pv(:);

bernoullicdf

y=bernoullicdf(p,x) Input: p is the success probability of a Bernoulli random variable X , x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)).

function cdf=bernoullicdf(p,x) %Usage: cdf=bernoullicdf(p,x) % For Bernoulli (p) rv X, %given input vector x, output is %vector pv such that pv(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)] x=floor(x(:)); allx=0:1; allcdf=cumsum(bernoullipmf(p,allx)); okx=(x>=0); %x_i < 1 are bad values x=(okx.*x); %set bad x_i=0 cdf= okx.*allcdf(x); %zeroes out bad x_i

bernoullirv

x=bernoullirv(p,m) Input: p is the success probability of a Bernoulli random variable X , m is a positive integer vector of possible sample values Output: x is a vector of m independent sample values of X

function x=bernoullirv(p,m) %return m samples of bernoulli (p) rv r=rand(m,1); x=(r>=(1-p));

2

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

bignomialpmf

y=bignomialpmf(n,p,x) Input: n and p are the parameters of a binomial (n, p) random variable X , x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)). Comment: This function should always produce the same output as binomialpmf(n,p,x); however, the function calculates the logarithm of the probability and thismay lead to small numerical innaccuracy.

function pmf=bignomialpmf(n,p,x) %binomial(n,p) rv X, %input = vector x %output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)] k=(0:n-1)’; a=log((p/(1-p))*((n-k)./(k+1))); L0=n*log(1-p); L=[L0; L0+cumsum(a)]; pb=exp(L); % pb=[P[X=0] ... P[X=n]]ˆt x=x(:); okx =(x>=0).*(x<=n).*(x==floor(x)); x=okx.*x; pmf=okx.*pb(x+1);

binomialcdf

y=binomialcdf(n,p,x) Input: n and p are the parameters of a binomial (n, p) random variable X , x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)).

function cdf=binomialcdf(n,p,x) %Usage: cdf=binomialcdf(n,p,x) %For binomial(n,p) rv X, %and input vector x, output is %vector cdf: cdf(i)=P[X<=x(i)] x=floor(x(:)); %for noninteger x(i) allx=0:max(x); %calculate cdf from 0 to max(x) allcdf=cumsum(binomialpmf(n,p,allx)); okx=(x>=0); %x(i) < 0 are zero-prob values x=(okx.*x); %set zero-prob x(i)=0 cdf= okx.*allcdf(x+1); %zero for zero-prob x(i)

3

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)). P[X=n]]ˆt x=x(:).rho) PDF nx=(x-muX)/sigmaX. pmf=okx.sigmaX.rho.sigmaY. binomialrv x=binomialrv(n. pb=((1-pp)ˆn)*cumprod([1 ip]).5 pp=p.p.*pb(x+1).rho of the bivariate Gaussian PDF.muY. %input = vector x %output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)] if p<0.*ny))/(2*(1-rhoˆ2))).*(x<=n). bivariategausspdf function f=bivariategausspdf(muX. p) random variable X .sigmaX.muY.muY. m is a positive integer Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of random variable X function x=binomialrv(n.com Phone:5017621195 binomialpmf y=binomialpmf(n.muY.*x.p) rv X.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. AR.rho.p) samples r=rand(m.(2*rho*nx. hot springs. ny=(y-muY)/sigmaY. else pp=1-p. end pb=pb(:). Output: f the value of the bivariate Gaussian PDF at x. 4 Address:104 pine meadows loop. cdf=binomialcdf(n. f=exp(-((nx.0:n).. % pb=[P[X=0] .x.y) %Usage: f=bivariategausspdf(muX.sigmaY.x) Input: n and p are the parameters of a binomial (n. okx =(x>=0). f=f/(2*pi*sigmax*sigmay*sqrt(1-rhoˆ2)). if pp < p pb=fliplr(pb)./(i+1))*(pp/(1-pp)). x=okx. x=count(cdf. end i=0:n-1. Input: Scalar parameters muX.p.ˆ2) .1).sigmaY.p.y) %Evaluate the bivariate Gaussian (muX.sigmaX..y. ip= ((n-i).x) %binomial(n.x. scalars x and y.m) Input: n and p are the parameters of a binomial random variable X .m) % m binomial(n.ˆ2) +(ny.r). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .sigmaY.sigmaX. function pmf=binomialpmf(n.p.*(x==floor(x)).p.

x) %discrete uniform(k.m) %returns m samples of a discrete %uniform (k. %set zero prob x(i)=k x=((1-okx)*k)+(okx. output is % vector cdf: cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)] x=floor(x(:)).allx)). 5 Address:104 pine meadows loop. AR. hot springs. %allcdf = cdf values from 0 to max(x) allcdf=cumsum(duniformpmf(k. x=k+count(cdf.com Phone:5017621195 duniformcdf y=duniformcdf(k. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .l.x) Input: k and l are the parameters of a discrete uniform (k.l. %x_i < k are zero prob values okx=(x>=k).x) %Usage: cdf=duniformcdf(k.l.l) rv X % and input vector x.l.l.*x).1).*(x<=l).l.x) Input: k and l are the parameters of a discrete uniform (k.l) random variable r=rand(m. duniformrv x=duniformrv(k.*allcdf(x-k+1).l. l) random variable X . pmf=pmf(:)/(l-k+1). duniformpmf y=duniformpmf(k.m) Input: k and l are the parameters of a discrete uniform (k. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)).k:l). function pmf=duniformpmf(k. l) random variable X . m is a positive integer Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of random variable X function x=duniformrv(k.l. l) random variable X .r). %for noninteger x_i allx=k:max(x). x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)).l) rv X.l. function cdf=duniformcdf(k.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. cdf=duniformcdf(k.x) % For discrete uniform (k. %x(i)=0 for zero prob x(i) cdf= okx. %input = vector x %output= vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)] pmf= (x>=k).*(x==floor(x)).

6 Address:104 pine meadows loop.m) Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an Erlang random variable X . hot springs.. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = FX (xi ).x) Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an Erlang random variable X .lambda. integer m Output: Length m vector x such that each xi is a sample of X function x=erlangrv(n. function f=erlangpdf(n.x) F=1.lambda.com Phone:5017621195 erlangb pb=erlangb(rho. erlangpdf y=erlangpdf(n. exponentialcdf y=exponentialcdf(lambda. function F=erlangcdf(n.2). x=sum(reshape(y.c).ˆ(n-1)).m*n).n).x) F=1.0:c).lambda. %Usage: pb=erlangb(rho. *(x.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.*exp(-lambda*x). function F=exponentialcdf(lambda.c) Input: Offered load rho (ρ = λ/µ). vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = FX (xi ) = 1 − e−λxi .lambda.n-1). vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = f X (xi ) = λn xin−1 e−λxi /(n − 1)!.lambda..x) Input: n and lambda are the parameters of an Erlang random variable X . erlangcdf y=erlangcdf(n. the blocking probability of the queue function pb=erlangb(rho.x) f=((lambdaˆn)/factorial(n)).0-exp(-lambda*x). AR.0-poissoncdf(lambda*x.m) y=exponentialrv(lambda. pb=pn(c+1)/sum(pn).c) %returns the Erlang-B blocking %probability for sn M/M/c/c %queue with load rho pn=exp(-rho)*poissonpmf(rho. Output: pb. and the number of servers c of an M/M/c/c queue.m.lambda.x) Input: lambda is the parameter of an exponential random variable X . erlangrv x=erlangrv(n.

. Output: rho. for i=1:length(x) pxi= sum(p(find(s<=x(i)))). vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = f X (xi ) = λe−λxi .x) Input: lambda is the parameter of an exponential random variable X .com Phone:5017621195 exponentialpdf y=exponentialpdf(lambda..*SY. f=f. rho=(R-ex*ey)/sqrt(vx*vy).PXY). hot springs.PXY). %Usage: rho=finitecoeff(SX. px is the corresponding probability assignment. function f=exponentialpdf(lambda.m) x=-(1/lambda)*log(1-rand(m.SY.p. cdf=[cdf.PXY) Input: Grids SX.PXY). exponentialrv x=exponentialrv(lambda. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . pxi]. finitecdf y=finitecdf(sx.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.x) f=lambda*exp(-lambda*x). the correlation coefficient of X and Y function rho=finitecoeff(SX.p.m) Input: lambda is the parameter of an exponential random variable X .sx(2).SY.1)). end finitecoeff rho=finitecoeff(SX. vy=finitevar(SY. SY and probability grid PXY describing the finite random variables X and Y . 7 Address:104 pine meadows loop. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)). integer m Output: Length m vector x such that each xi is a sample of X function x=exponentialrv(lambda.} % vector px of probabilities % px(i)=P[X=sx(i)] % Output is the vector % cdf: cdf(i)=P[X=x(i)] cdf=[].PXY) %Calculate the correlation coefficient rho of %finite random variables X and Y ex=finiteexp(SX.PXY).PXY).PXY). R=finiteexp(SX.SY. function cdf=finitecdf(s. AR. .*(x>=0).x) Input: sx is the range of a finite random variable X . vx=finitevar(SX. ey=finiteexp(SY.x) % finite random variable X: % vector sx of sample space % elements {sx(1).

%Usage: ex=finiteexp(sx.m) % returns m samples % of finite (s.px.*(px(:))). the expected value E[X ]. cdf=cumsum(p). function pmf=finitepmf(sx.PXY).PXY) Input: Grids SX.x) Input: sx is the range of a finite random variable X .*SY.SY.x) % finite random variable X: % vector sx of sample space % elements {sx(1)..p.r)).SY.p) rv %s=s(:).1).p=p(:).PXY)..com Phone:5017621195 finitecov covxy=finitecov(SX.p. covxy=R-ex*ey. the covariance of X and Y.m) Input: sx is the range of a finite random variable X . ey=finiteexp(SY.} % vector px of probabilities % px(i)=P[X=sx(i)] % Output is the vector % pmf: pmf(i)=P[X=x(i)] pmf=zeros(size(x(:))). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .PXY) %returns the covariance of %finite random variables X and Y %given by grids SX. R=finiteexp(SX. x=s(1+count(cdf.px). AR. 8 Address:104 pine meadows loop.px) Input: Probability vector px.p. function covxy=finitecov(SX. finiteexp ex=finiteexp(sx.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.PXY). Output: ex. function ex=finiteexp(sx. SY and probability grid PXY describing the finite random variables X and Y . px is the corresponding probability assignment. for i=1:length(x) pmf(i)= sum(px(find(sx==x(i)))). finitepmf y=finitepmf(sx. m is positive integer Output: x is a vector of m sample values y(i) = FX (x(i)). SY. hot springs. Output: covxy.PXY).sx(2). %Usage: cxy=finitecov(SX. r=rand(m.SY. end finiterv x=finiterv(sx. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = P[X = x(i)].px) %returns the expected value E[X] %of finite random variable X described %by samples sx and probabilities px ex=sum((sx(:)). and PXY ex=finiteexp(SX. function x=finiterv(s. vector of samples sx describing random variable X . p is the corresponding probability assignment. .

px) Input: Probability vector px and vector of samples sx describing random variable X .px) % returns the variance Var[X] % of finite random variables X described by % samples sx and probabilities px ex2=finiteexp(sx.sigma.px). gausscdf y=gausscdf(mu. function f=gausspdf(mu. v=ex2-(exˆ2).ˆ2/(2*sigmaˆ2))/. the Var[X ]. %Usage: ex=finitevar(sx. AR.ˆ2. vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = f X (xi ). sqrt(2*pi*sigmaˆ2).px).sigma.m) Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an Gaussian random variable X . vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = FX (xi ) = ((xi − µ)/σ ).sigma.x) f=exp(-(x-mu).x) Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an Guassian random variable X .m) x=mu +(sigma*randn(m.. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .. hot springs.sigma. Output: v. 9 Address:104 pine meadows loop. variance function v=finitevar(sx. function f=gausscdf(mu.px).x) Input: mu and sigma are the parameters of an Guassian random variable X .x) f=phi((x-mu)/sigma).sigma. gausspdf y=gausspdf(mu. ex=finiteexp(sx. integer m Output: Length m vector x such that each xi is a sample of X function x=gaussrv(mu.1)).sigma. gaussrv x=gaussrv(mu.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195 finitevar v=finitevar(sx.

if (length(mu)==1) mu=mu*ones(n. function f=gaussvectorpdf(mu. cdf=1-((1-p).x) Input: For a Gaussian (µX . mu is either a length n vector. or a length 1 scalar. m is an integer. %For input vector x.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo... each element of X is assumed to have mean mu. mu is a length n vector. +(mu(:)*ones(1.m). end n=size(C. Output: f is the Gaussian vector PDF f X (x) evaluated at x. or a length 1 scalar. x is a length n vector. 10 Address:104 pine meadows loop. Output: n × m matrix x such that each column x(:.x) % for geometric(p) rv X.*floor(x(:)).i) is a sample vector of X function x=gaussvector(mu.com Phone:5017621195 gaussvector x=gaussvector(mu. end [U. geometriccdf y=geometriccdf(p.C.V]=svd(C). • C is the length n vector equal to the first row of a symmetric Toeplitz covariance matrix CX . C is the n × n covariance matrix.m) Input: For a Gaussian (µX .D.x) n=length(x). gaussvector can be called in two ways: • C is the n × n covariance matrix.C. mu is either a length n vector.5))*randn(n.2). otherwise. gaussvectorpdf f=gaussvector(mu. x=V*(Dˆ(0.m) %output: m Gaussian vectors. f=exp(-z’*inv(C)*z)/. z=x(:)-mu(:).. m is an integer. hot springs.ˆx).1). sqrt((2*pi)ˆn*det(C)). function cdf=geometriccdf(p. If mu is a length n vector. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 ..x) Input: p is the parameter of a geometric random variable X . CX ) random vector X. AR. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)).C. then mu is the expected value vector. %each with mean mu %and covariance matrix C if (min(size(C))==1) C=toeplitz(C).m)). CX ) random vector X.C. output is vector %cdf such that cdf_i=Prob(X<=x_i) x=(x(:)>=1).

us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195 geometricpmf y=geometricpmf(p. integer m Output: Length m vector x such that each xi is a sample of X function x=icdfrv(icdfhandle. hot springs.m) Input: p is the parameters of a geometric random variable X . pmf= (x>0).m) % returns m samples of a geometric (p) rv r=rand(m.1). geometricrv x=geometricrv(p.*pmf.m) %returns m samples of rv X %with inverse CDF icdf. icdfrv x=icdfrv(@icdf. function pmf=geometricpmf(p. 11 Address:104 pine meadows loop.m u=rand(m.u). pmf= p*((1-p).x) %geometric(p) rv X %out: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)] x=x(:).m) %Usage: x=geometricrv(p. m is a positive integer Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of random variable X function x=geometricrv(p. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)).m) Input: @icdfrv is a “handle” (a kind of pointer) to a M ATLAB function icdf. x=ceil(log(1-r)/log(1-p)).m) %Usage: x=icdfrv(@icdf.*(x==floor(x)). AR. x=feval(icdfhandle.m that is M ATLAB’s representation of an inverse −1 CDF FX (x) of a random variable X .x) Input: p is the parameter of a geometric random variable X .ˆ(x-1)).1).

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. %just so indexing is not fouled up x=(okx. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . % other values are OK okx=(x>=k). %x_i < k have zero-prob.x) %For Pascal (k. 12 Address:104 pine meadows loop. the output %is a vector cdf such that % cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)] x=floor(x(:)). x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)).p. p) random variable X .*x) + k*(1-okx).p.p. ip= [1 ./(i+1-k))].p) rv X.allx)). % pmf(i)=0 unless x(i) >= k pmf=okx.x) Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pascal (k. i=(k:n-1)’. %allcdf holds all needed cdf values allcdf=cumsum(pascalpmf(k. %set zero-prob x(i)=k.com Phone:5017621195 pascalcdf y=pascalcdf(k.*allcdf(x-k+1).p. % for noninteger x(i) allx=k:max(x). output is a %vector pmf: pmf(i)=Prob[X=x(i)] x=x(:).p) rv X %and input vector x.x) %Usage: cdf=pascalcdf(k. p) random variable X .(1-p)*(i.x) Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pascal (k. function pmf=pascalpmf(k. AR.p.*(x>=k). cdf= okx.x) %For a pascal (k. n=max(x). hot springs.p.*x) +((1-okx)*k). okx=(x==floor(x)). %pb=all n-k+1 pascal probs pb=(pˆk)*cumprod(ip). %set bad x(i)=k to stop bad indexing x=(okx. pascalpmf y=pascalpmf(k. function cdf=pascalcdf(k. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = FX (x(i)). and %input vector x.*pb(x-k+1).

%cdf from 0 to max(x) okx=(x>=0). xmax=ceil(2*(k/p)). m is a positive integer Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of random variable X function x=pascalrv(k.sx). function y=phi(x) sq2=sqrt(2).m) % return m samples of pascal(k.%x(i)<0 -> cdf=0 x=(okx. cdf=cumsum(poissonpmf(alpha.5*erf(x/sq2). rmax=max(r).p) rv r=rand(m. y= 0.x) Input: alpha is the parameter of a Poisson (α) random variable X . cdf=pascalcdf(k. while cdf(length(cdf)) <=rmax xmax=2*xmax. sx=0:max(x).com Phone:5017621195 pascalrv x=pascalrv(k.1). phi y=phi(x) Input: Vector x Output: Vector y such that y(i) = (x(i)). poissoncdf y=poissoncdf(alpha.x) %output cdf(i)=Prob[X<=x(i)] x=floor(x(:)).p. hot springs. AR.%set negative x(i)=0 cdf= okx. end x=xmin+countless(cdf.5 + 0.*x).sx)).p.*cdf(x+1).sx). = function cdf=poissoncdf(alpha. %cdf=0 for x(i)<0 13 Address:104 pine meadows loop. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . xmin=k.r). cdf=pascalcdf(k.p. %set max range sx=xmin:xmax.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.m) Input: k and p are the parameters of a Pascal random variable X . sx=xmin:xmax.p. x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) FX (x(i)).

end x=xmin+countless(cdf.*((x>=a) & (x<b))/(b-a).x) Input: alpha is the parameter of a Poisson (α) random variable X . -alpha+ (k*log(alpha))-logfacts]).sx). pmf=okx. vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = FX (xi ) function F=uniformcdf(a.r). function pmf=poissonpmf(alpha.b. cdf=poissoncdf(alpha. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . %out=vector pmf: pmf(i)=P[X=x(i)] x=x(:). %while ( sum(cdf <=rmax) ==(xmax-xmin+1) ) while cdf(length(cdf)) <=rmax xmax=2*xmax.m) Input: alpha is the parameter of a Poisson (α) random variable X . 14 Address:104 pine meadows loop. m is a positive integer Output: x is a vector of m independent samples of random variable X function x=poissonrv(alpha. %set max range sx=xmin:xmax. logfacts =cumsum(log(k)). . k=(1:max(x))’.b.*x.m) %return m samples of poisson(alpha) rv X r=rand(m. pb=exp([-alpha.1).*pb(x+1).x) %returns the CDF of a continuous %uniform rv evaluated at x F=x. uniformcdf y=uniformcdf(a. hot springs. cdf=poissoncdf(alpha.x) %Usage: F=uniformcdf(a.b.*(x==floor(x)).sx). xmin=0. okx=(x>=0).x) Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous uniform random variable X . xmax=ceil(2*alpha). x is a vector of possible sample values Output: y is a vector with y(i) = PX (x(i)).. AR..x) %Poisson (alpha) rv X. %pmf(i)=0 for zero-prob x(i) poissonrv x=poissonrv(alpha. sx=xmin:xmax. x=okx. F=f+1.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195 poissonpmf y=poissonpmf(alpha. rmax=max(r).0*(x>=b).

AR.com Phone:5017621195 uniformpdf y=uniformpdf(a.b.b) random varible x=a+(b-a)*rand(m. vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = f X (xi ) function f=uniformpdf(a.m) %Returns m samples of a %uniform (a. hot springs.b. uniformrv x=uniformrv(a.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.x) Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous uniform random variable X . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .m) %Usage: x=uniformrv(a.b.b. 15 Address:104 pine meadows loop. function x=uniformrv(a.x) %returns the PDF of a continuous %uniform rv evaluated at x f=((x>=a) & (x<b))/(b-a).b.x) %Usage: f=uniformpdf(a.m) Input: a and ( b) are parameters for continuous uniform random variable X .b.1). positive integer m Output: m element vector x such that each x(i) is a sample of X .

1)=ones(n.. n=size(Q.t) %Brownian motion process %sampled at t(1)<t(2)< . A=(eye(n)-P).t) Input: t is a vector holding an ordered sequence of inspection times.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. pv=([1 zeros(1.1).1). hot springs.1).1)=ones(n. w=cumsum(x). 16 Address:104 pine meadows loop. delta=t-[0. cmcprob pv=cmcprob(Q.p0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . cmcstatprob pv=cmcstatprob(Q) Input: State transition matrix Q for a continuoustime finite Markov chain Output: pv is the stationary probability vector for the continuous-time Markov chain function pv = cmcstatprob(Q) %Q has zero diagonal rates R=Q-diag(sum(Q. pv=([1 zeros(1.*gaussrv(0.p0. length n vector p0 denoting the initial state probabilities.t) Input: n × n state transition matrix Q for a continuous-time finite Markov chain. state %check for integer p0 if (length(p0)==1) p0=((0:K)==p0). end R=Q-diag(sum(Q. alpha is the scaling constant of a Brownian motion process such that the ith increment has variance α(ti − ti−1 ). Output: w is a vector such that w(i) is the position at time t(i) of the particle in Brownian motion.1. t=t(:).1).n-1)]*Aˆ(-1))’. AR.t(1:n-1)].t) %Q has zero diagonal rates %initial state probabilities p0 K=size(Q.. dmcstatprob pv=dmcstatprob(P) Input: n × n stochastic matrix P representing a discrete-time aperiodic irreducible finite Markov chain Output: pv is the stationary probability vector.n).2)).n-1)]*Rˆ(-1))’.2)). x=sqrt(alpha*delta). %max no. pv= (p0(:)’*expm(R*t))’. then the simulation starts in state p0 function pv = cmcprob(Q. nonengative scalar t Output: Length n vector pv such that pv(t) is the state probability vector at time t of the Markov chain Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer.com Phone:5017621195 Functions for Stochastic Processes brownian w=brownian(alpha. function w=brownian(alpha. n=length(t). function pv = dmcstatprob(P) n=size(P. R(:. A(:.1)-1.

T) %arrival times s=[s(1) . ST=ST(1:n.S]. s=[s. while (sum(ST(:.2)=T-sum(ST(1:n-1. function N=poissonprocess(lambda. s_new]. Note that length n is a Poisson random variable with expected value λT . Note that n. S=simcmcstep(Q.1).T) Input: state transition matrix Q for a continuous-time finite Markov chain. Input: lambda is the arrival rate of a Poisson process. ST(i. the number of state occupancy periods. T ]. %N(i) = no. rate ps=cmcstatprob(Q).t) Input: lambda is the arrival rate of a Poisson process. n=ceil(0. s(n)] % s(n)<= T < s(n+1) n=ceil(1.2) is the amount of time the system spends in state ST(i.n).2)).com Phone:5017621195 poissonarrivals s=poissonarrivals(lambda. Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer.p00.6*T/R). s_new=s(length(s))+ . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 ... is random. s=ST(size(ST. cumsum(exponentialrv(lambda.T) function s=poissonarrivals(lambda. Comment: This code is pretty stupid.n)). poissonprocess N=poissonprocess(lambda. T marks the end of an observation interval [0.’ Output: N is a vector such that N(i) is the number of arrival by inspection time t(i).p0.1). then the simulation starts in state p0. end n=1+sum(cumsum(ST(:. while (s(length(s))< T). vector t %For a sample function of a %Poisson process of rate lambda.p0. p00=Q(1+s.2*n).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. vector p0 denoting the initial state probabilities. AR. 17 Address:104 pine meadows loop. K=size(Q.2))<T).1).13.. of arrivals by t(i) s=poissonarrivals(lambda. s(n)]’ is a vector such that s(i) is ith arrival time... v=sum(Q.. R=ps’*v.n)). N=count(s. s=cumsum(exponentialrv(lambda.:)/v(1+s). function ST=simcmc(Q. There are decidedly better ways to create a set of arrival times.2).T).p0. . hot springs. integer n Output: A simulation of the Markov chain system over the time interval [0.5. That is.t) %input: rate lambda>0.max(t)). ST=[ST.:)..2) is the amount of time spent in each state. ST=simcmcstep(Q.1*lambda*T).1)-1.2))<T).1) is the sequence of system states and the second column ST(:. end s=s(s<=T). %truncate last holding time ST(n. T ]: The output is an n × 2 matrix ST such that the first column ST(:. max no.t). state %calc average trans. simcmc ST=simcmc(Q. see Problem 10. Output: s=[s(1). t is a vector of “inspection times’.

end v=sum(Q.1).p0. %highest no. %S=simcmcstep(Q. P=diag(t)*Q.1)) . S(:. end Input: n ×n stochastic matrix P which is the state transition matrix of a discrete-time finite Markov chain.2). % init. x(m) is the state at time m-1 of the Markov chain. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .1)-1. then the simulation starts in state p0 18 Address:104 pine meadows loop.2)=t(1+S(:. %state space x=zeros(n+1. %max no.P(x(m)+1. That is. Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1). length n vector p0 denoting the initial state probabilities. %initialization if (length(p0)==1) %convert integer p0 to prob vector p0=((0:K)==p0).1)-1. Comment: If p0 is a scalar integer. . state S=zeros(n+1. end x(1)=finiterv(sx.1). AR.n).2).2) is the amount of time the system spends in state ST(i. %state dep.n) K=size(P. This program is the basis for simcmc.n) Input: State transition matrix Q for a continuoustime finite Markov chain.2) is the amount of time spent in each state. state probabilities p0 K=size(Q.1)=simdmc(P. state sx=0:K. then the simulation starts in state p0.p0. integer n Output: A simulation of n steps of the continuous-time Markov chain system: The output is an n × 2 matrix ST such that the first column ST(:.com Phone:5017621195 simcmcstep S=simcmcstep(Q.%init allocation %check for integer p0 if (length(p0)==1) p0=((0:K)==p0). rates t=1.n+1).p0. vector p0 denoting the initial state probabilities.p0. S(:.n). hot springs.1).1) is the length n sequence of system states and the second column ST(:. simdmc x=simdmc(P./v.n) function x=simdmc(P.:). Output: A simulation of the Markov chain system such that for the length n vector x. rate matrix Q.p0. integer n. function S=simcmcstep(Q..p0. ST(i.n) % Simulate n steps of a cts % Markov Chain.*exponentialrv(1.p0.. x(m+1)=finiterv(sx. %x(m)= state at time m-1 for m=1:n.

y).0j)*2*pi*(n*(n’))/N). Output: F is the N by N discrete Fourier transform matrix function F = dftmat(N). function n=countequal(x.1))’.com Phone:5017621195 Random Utilities count n=count(x. F=exp((-1. %each column of MX = x %each row of MY = y n=(sum((MX<MY).y) Input: Vectors x and y Output: Vector n such that n(i) is the number of elements of x less than or equal to y(i). hot springs. 19 Address:104 pine meadows loop.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.y) %Usage n=count(x.MY]=ndgrid(x.MY]=ndgrid(x. %each column of MX = x %each row of MY = y n=(sum((MX==MY).y). countless n=countless(x. countequal n=countequal(x.y). %each column of MX = x %each row of MY = y n=(sum((MX<=MY).y) %n(i)= # elements of x <= y(i) [MX.y) %Usage: n=countless(x. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . dftmat F=dftmat(N) Input: Integer N .y) %n(j)= # elements of x = y(j) [MX.1))’.y) Input: Vectors x and y Output: Vector n such that n(i) is the number of elements of x equal to y(i). AR. Usage: F=dftmat(N) %F is the N by N DFT matrix n=(0:N-1)’.MY]=ndgrid(x.y) %n(i)= # elements of x < y(i) [MX. function n=countless(x.1))’.y) %Usage: n=countequal(x.y) Input: Input: Vectors x and y Output: Vector n such that n(i) is the number of elements of x strictly less than y(i). function n=count(x.

m). %extend xy to include a sample %for all possible (X.Y) pairs: xy=[xy. if (nargin>1) N=varargin{2}(1).2)] is a unique (X. freq. . .2) fxy(k.:) is the ith sample pair (X.1) fxy(k. rk centered around the origin. a list of random sample value pairs xy can be simulated by the commands S=[SX(:) SY(:)]. L=1+floor(length(r)/2). Y ) pair with relative frequency fxy(k. SY(:) PXY(:)]. function fxy = freqxy(xy. Output: S is the DFT of r Comment: Supports the same calling conventions as fft. AR.3).SY) %xy is an m x 2 matrix: %xy(i.’rows’). Y ).Y %Output fxy is a K x 3 matrix: % [fxy(k. Output: fxy is a K × 3 matrix. S=R.1) fxy(k. . N=N/sum(N). yy(i..size(R)).com Phone:5017621195 freqxy fxy=freqxy(xy. In each row [fxy(k. SX(:) SY(:)]. S=fftc(r) Input: Vector r=[r(1) . xy is an m × 2 matrix holding a list of sample values pairs. else N=(2*L)-1. %reorder fxy rows to match %rows of [SX(:) SY(:) PXY(:)]: fxy=sortrows(fxy. .1) fxy(k.PXY(:). .:)= ith sample pair X. . Grids SX and SY representing the sample space.3)= corresp. function S=fftc(varargin). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . N=hist(J. rel. . phase=2*pi*(n/N)*(L-1). r0 .N). The output fxy is ordered so that the rows match the ordering of rows in the matrix [SX(:) fftc S=fftc(r.1:max(J))-1. fxy=[U N(:)].N).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.[2 1 3]). n=reshape(0:(N-1).SX. SY and the probability grid PXY.SX. [U.*exp((1.SX. hot springs.J]=unique(xy. xy=finiterv(S. %DFT for a signal r %centered at the origin %Usage: % fftc(r.0j)*phase).SY) Input: For random variables X and Y . r(2k+1)] holding the time sequence r−k . Comment: Given the grids SX.3)] [fxy(k. . end R=fft(r.SY) %Usage: fxy = freqxy(xy.2)] % = kth unique pair [x y] and % fxy(k. 20 Address:104 pine meadows loop.I.N): N point DFT of r % fftc(r): length(r) DFT of r r=varargin{1}..

px. sx=sx(nonzero). Comment: The code is ugly because it makes sure to produce the right limit value at xi = 0.PM. if (nargin==4) xlabel(xls).1*max(px). px is the PMF %xls and yls are x and y label strings nonzero=find(px). axis([xmin xmax 0 ymax])./(pi*xx). y=sin(pi*xx). end xmin=min(sx).5 0 otherwise function y=rect(x).5).yls) %Usage: pmfplot(sx.0-(x==0)). function h=pmfplot(sx. hot springs.’-k’).0*(x==0)).xls.’y axis text’) Input: Sample space vector sx and PMF vector px for finite random variable PXY. sx]. set(h. %Usage:y=rect(x). sinc y=sinc(x) Input: Vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = sinc(xi ) = sin(π xi ) π xi function y=sinc(x). rect y=rect(x) Input: Vector x Output: Vector y such that yi = rect(xi ) = 1 |xi | < 0. XM = [sx. y=((1. h=plot(XM. sx=(sx(:))’.xls. px]. xborder=0. 21 Address:104 pine meadows loop.yls) %sx and px are vectors.05*(xmax-xmin). AR. ylabel(yls.’Bottom’).px. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .’x’. xx=x+(x==0).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. xmax=max(sx).’VerticalAlignment’. xmax=xmax+xborder.3). y=1.’LineWidth’. px=px(nonzero). xmin=xmin-xborder.px.0*(abs(x)<0. ymax=1. PM=[zeros(size(px)). optional text strings xls and yls Output: A plot of the PMF PX (x) in the bar style used in the text.*y)+ (1. px=(px(:))’.com Phone:5017621195 pmfplot pmfplot(sx.

ylabel(yls.2)]).ylabel) function h=simplot(S.’VerticalAlignment’.p0. % If S is an N by 2 matrix. S(size(S.n) or the n × 2 state/time matrix ST generated by either ST=simcmc(Q. 22 Address:104 pine meadows loop.2) = state visit times. end Y=[S(:.p0.T) or ST=simcmcstep(Q.com Phone:5017621195 simplot simplot(S. a cts time Markov chain % is assumed where % S(:.ylabel) % Plots the output of a simulated state sequence % If S is N by 1.xls.xlabel.2)==1) S=[S ones(size(S))]. S(:. Comment: If S is just a state sequence vector.1) . if (nargin==3) xlabel(xls).’Bottom’). a discrete time chain is assumed % with visit times of one unit. h=stairs(X. hot springs. AR. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . then the width of the stair is proportional to the time spent in that state.p0. Output: A “stairs” plot showing the sequence of simulation states over time.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. end Input: The simulated state sequence vector S generated by S=simdmc(P. % S(:. %h=simplot(S.yls). % h is a handle to a stairs plot of the state sequence % vs state transition times %in case of discrete time simulation if (size(S.1)].xlabel. then each stair has equal width.Y).n). X=cumsum([0 .1). % The cumulative sum % of visit times are transition instances. If S is n × 2 state/time matrix ST.1) = state sequence.

This archive has programs of general purpose programs for solving probability problems as well as specific . 1 Address:104 pine meadows loop. a probability close to unity) that errors will be found.com Phone:5017621195 Probability and Stochastic Processes A Friendly Introduction for Electrical and Computer Engineers Second Edition Quiz Solutions Roy D.m files associated with examples or quizzes in the text. If you find errors or have suggestions or comments. Nevertheless. When errors are found.rutgers. • We have made a substantial effort to check the solution to every quiz.pdf describing the general purpose .edu. 2004 • The M ATLAB section quizzes at the end of each chapter use programs available for download as the archive matcode. please send email to ryates@winlab.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . there is a nonzero probability (in fact. Yates and David J.zip. hot springs. corrected solutions will be posted at the website. AR. Goodman May 22. Also available is a manual probmatlab.m files in matcode.zip.

ddd} (5) A3 = {vvv. the shaded area represents the indicated set. ddv. vvd.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. ddv} (8) B4 = {ddd. vdd} (2) B1 = {dvv. ddd} (6) B3 = {vdv. vdd} Recall that Ai and Bi are collectively exhaustive if Ai ∪ Bi = S. dvd} (4) R ∩ M (6) T c − M (7) A4 = {vvv. vvd. The pair A2 and B2 are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. AR. Also. dvd. The pair A4 and B4 are not mutually exclusive since dvd belongs to A4 and B4 . vvd. vdv. dvv. dvd} (4) B2 = {vdv.1 In the Venn diagrams for parts (a)-(g) below. dvd. Since we have written down each pair Ai and Bi above. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . ddv. vdd. The pair A3 and B3 are mutually exclusive but not collectively exhaustive. ddv. vdd.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 1 Quiz 1. However. vdv. dvd. A4 and B4 are collectively exhaustive. we can simply check for these properties. M T O M T O M T O (1) R = T c (2) M ∪ O (3) M ∩ O M T O M T O M T O (4) R ∪ M Quiz 1. dvv. ddd} (3) A2 = {vvv. 2 Address:104 pine meadows loop. hot springs.2 (1) A1 = {vvv. The pair A1 and B1 are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Ai and Bi are mutually exclusive if Ai ∩ Bi = φ.

18 (5) P[T ≥ 80] = P[{s80 . . Each of these outcomes has probability 0.02 (2) P[{s100 }] = 0.02 = 0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. .6 = P [V L] + P [DL] (1) (2) Since P[V L] = 0. .05 Finding the various probabilities is now straightforward: 3 Address:104 pine meadows loop.35. .02 = 0.25. .05 and the complete table is V D L 0.78 (7) P[a C grade or better] = P[{s70 .35 ? B ? ? In a roundabout way. s100 }] = 41 × 0. s89 }] = 39 × 0.02 = 0.02 = 0. . D B.7 = P [V L] + P [V B] P [L] = 0. .4 We can describe this experiment by the event space consisting of the four possible events V B. .25 B 0.35 and that P[DL] = 0. We represent these events in the table: V D L 0.6 − 0. P [V ] = 0. (1) P[{s79 }] = 0.3 There are exactly 50 equally likely outcomes: s51 through s100 .02 (3) P[A] = P[{s90 .02. s100 }] = 11 × 0.02 = 0.42 (6) P[T < 90] = P[{s51 . . . .com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 1. . . s59 }] = 9 × 0.35 = 0. . and DL. hot springs. .02 = 0. . . V L.35 0. . . . we can conclude that P[V B] = 0. s100 }] = 21 × 0.22 (4) P[F] = P[{s51 .82 Quiz 1. In particular. . This allows us to fill in two more table entries: V D L 0. s100 }] = 31 × 0.35 0.35 ? The remaining table entry is filled in by observing that the probabilities must sum to 1. . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . the problem statement tells us how to fill in the table.35 0.62 (8) P[student passes] = P[{s60 . . AR. This implies P[D B] = 0.25 B 0. s52 . .

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

(1) P[DL] = 0.25 (2) P[D ∪ L] = P[V L] + P[DL] + P[D B] = 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.05 = 0.65. (3) P[V B] = 0.35 (4) P[V ∪ L] = P[V ] + P[L] − P[V L] = 0.7 + 0.6 − 0.35 = 0.95 (5) P[V ∪ D] = P[S] = 1 (6) P[L B] = P[L L c ] = 0 Quiz 1.5 (1) The probability of exactly two voice calls is P [N V = 2] = P [{vvd, vdv, dvv}] = 0.3 (2) The probability of at least one voice call is P [N V ≥ 1] = P [{vdd, dvd, ddv, vvd, vdv, dvv, vvv}] = 6(0.1) + 0.2 = 0.8 An easier way to get the same answer is to observe that P [N V ≥ 1] = 1 − P [N V < 1] = 1 − P [N V = 0] = 1 − P [{ddd}] = 0.8 (4) (2) (3) (1)

(3) The conditional probability of two voice calls followed by a data call given that there were two voice calls is 1 P [{vvd} , N V = 2] P [{vvd}] 0.1 = (5) = = P [{vvd} |N V = 2] = P [N V = 2] P [N V = 2] 0.3 3 (4) The conditional probability of two data calls followed by a voice call given there were two voice calls is P [{ddv} , N V = 2] P [{ddv} |N V = 2] = =0 (6) P [N V = 2] The joint event of the outcome ddv and exactly two voice calls has probability zero since there is only one voice call in the outcome ddv. (5) The conditional probability of exactly two voice calls given at least one voice call is P [N V = 2, N V ≥ 1] P [N V = 2] 0.3 3 = = = (7) P [N V = 2|Nv ≥ 1] = P [N V ≥ 1] P [N V ≥ 1] 0.8 8 (6) The conditional probability of at least one voice call given there were exactly two voice calls is P [N V ≥ 1, N V = 2] P [N V = 2] P [N V ≥ 1|N V = 2] = = =1 (8) P [N V = 2] P [N V = 2] Given that there were two voice calls, there must have been at least one voice call. 4

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Quiz 1.6 In this experiment, there are four outcomes with probabilities P[{vv}] = (0.8)2 = 0.64 P[{dv}] = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16 P[{vd}] = (0.8)(0.2) = 0.16 P[{dd}] = (0.2)2 = 0.04

When checking the independence of any two events A and B, it’s wise to avoid intuition and simply check whether P[AB] = P[A]P[B]. Using the probabilities of the outcomes, we now can test for the independence of events. (1) First, we calculate the probability of the joint event: P [N V = 2, N V ≥ 1] = P [N V = 2] = P [{vv}] = 0.64 Next, we observe that P [N V ≥ 1] = P [{vd, dv, vv}] = 0.96 Finally, we make the comparison P [N V = 2] P [N V ≥ 1] = (0.64)(0.96) = P [N V = 2, N V ≥ 1] which shows the two events are dependent. (2) The probability of the joint event is P [N V ≥ 1, C1 = v] = P [{vd, vv}] = 0.80 From part (a), P[N V ≥ 1] = 0.96. Further, P[C1 = v] = 0.8 so that P [N V ≥ 1] P [C1 = v] = (0.96)(0.8) = 0.768 = P [N V ≥ 1, C1 = v] Hence, the events are dependent. (3) The problem statement that the calls were independent implies that the events the second call is a voice call, {C2 = v}, and the first call is a data call, {C1 = d} are independent events. Just to be sure, we can do the calculations to check: P [C1 = d, C2 = v] = P [{dv}] = 0.16 (6) Since P[C1 = d]P[C2 = v] = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16, we confirm that the events are independent. Note that this shouldn’t be surprising since we used the information that the calls were independent in the problem statement to determine the probabilities of the outcomes. (4) The probability of the joint event is P [C2 = v, N V is even] = P [{vv}] = 0.64 Also, each event has probability P [C2 = v] = P [{dv, vv}] = 0.8, P [N V is even] = P [{dd, vv}] = 0.68 (8) Thus, P[C2 = v]P[N V is even] = (0.8)(0.68) = 0.544. Since P[C2 = v, N V is even] = 0.544, the events are dependent. 5 (7) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1)

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Quiz 1.7 Let Fi denote the event that that the user is found on page i. The tree for the experiment is
0.8 ¨ F1 0.8 ¨ F2 0.8 ¨ F3 ¨¨ ¨¨ ¨¨ ¨ ¨¨ ¨¨ c c c ¨¨ F3 F1 ¨ F2 ¨ 0.2 0.2 0.2

The user is found unless all three paging attempts fail. Thus the probability the user is found is c c c P [F] = 1 − P F1 F2 F3 = 1 − (0.2)3 = 0.992 (1) Quiz 1.8 (1) We can view choosing each bit in the code word as a subexperiment. Each subexperiment has two possible outcomes: 0 and 1. Thus by the fundamental principle of counting, there are 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 24 = 16 possible code words. (2) An experiment that can yield all possible code words with two zeroes is to choose which 2 bits (out of 4 bits) will be zero. The other two bits then must be ones. There are 4 = 6 ways to do this. Hence, there are six code words with exactly two zeroes. 2 For this problem, it is also possible to simply enumerate the six code words: 1100, 1010, 1001, 0101, 0110, 0011. (3) When the first bit must be a zero, then the first subexperiment of choosing the first bit has only one outcome. For each of the next three bits, we have two choices. In this case, there are 1 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 8 ways of choosing a code word. (4) For the constant ratio code, we can specify a code word by choosing M of the bits to be ones. The other N − M bits will be zeroes. The number of ways of choosing such N a code word is M . For N = 8 and M = 3, there are 8 = 56 code words. 3 Quiz 1.9 (1) In this problem, k bits received in error is the same as k failures in 100 trials. The failure probability is = 1 − p and the success probability is 1 − = p. That is, the probability of k bits in error and 100 − k correctly received bits is P Sk,100−k = 100 k 6
k

(1 − )100−k

(1)

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

3660 P S1. we note there are three cases: • If R(i) <= 0. These three cases will have probabilities 0.99) 2 3 99 (2) (3) (4) (5) = 0.4) .4 < R(i) and R(i)<=0. 0. then X(i)=1...9. then X(i)=3. 700(0.100).9)) . Lastly.01)(0. Y=hist(X.99) (2) The probability a packet is decoded correctly is just P [C] = P S0.*(R<=0. the transistors in the chip are like devices in series.3700 9 97 P S2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. AR. 8 P [C9 ] = (P [C])9 = p 9n . The module works if either 8 chips work or 9 chips work. X(i)=2 if flip i was tails. Let Ck denote the event that exactly k chips work. 7 Address:104 pine meadows loop. Thus each P[Ck ] has the binomial probability 9 (P [C])8 (1 − P [C])9−8 = 9 p 8n (1 − p n ). That is. • If 0.99)100 = 0.4.99 = 100(0.97 = 161.1:3) (1) (2) (3) For a M ATLAB simulation. The probability that a chip works is P[C] = pn .100 + P S1. + (3*(R>0.com Phone:5017621195 For = 0. and X(i)=3) is flip i landed on the edge. Since transistor failures are independent of each other. P S0.99 + P S2. X=(R<= 0.98 = 4950(0.9)). we use the hist function to count how many occurences of each possible value of X(i). • If 0.01) (0. we first generate a vector R of 100 random numbers.1849 P S3.11 R=rand(1. we generate vector X as a function of R to represent the 3 possible outcomes of a flip.. then X(i)=2. X(i)=1 if flip i was heads.10 Since the chip works only if all n transistors work.99) 8 = 0.9 < R(i). + (2*(R>0.5 and 0.01.1.0610 (6) Quiz 1.97 = 0.100 = (1 − )100 = (0.9819 = 0. hot springs.4). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 ..98 + P S3. Second. To see how this works.01) (0.4. P [C8 ] = The probability a memory module works is P [M] = P [C8 ] + P [C9 ] = p 8n (9 − 8 p n ) Quiz 1. chip failures are also independent.

with probability p.24 2. X has the geometric PMF PX (x) = p(1 − p)x−1 x = 1.3 Decoding each transmitted bit is an independent trial where we call a bit error a “success. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .5 0. 3 G 0. Now we can interpret each experiment in the generic context of independent trials.0 0. Now that we have found c.24 2. That is. 2. we recall that the PMF must sum to 1.” Each bit is in error.36 3.1)(0. hot springs.5 0.2 (1) To find c. the trial is a success. (1) The random variable X is the number of trials up to and including the first success. Similar to Example 2. 0 otherwise (1) (2) If p = 0.0387 8 (2) Address:104 pine meadows loop.9)9 = 0.11.1 The sample space. (2) P[N = 1] = PN (1) = c = 6/11 (3) P[N ≥ 2] = PN (2) + PN (3) = c/2 + c/3 = 5/11 (4) P[N > 3] = ∞ n=4 PN (n) = 0 Quiz 2.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 2 Quiz 2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. . .16 2 PN (n) = c 1 + n=1 1 1 + 2 3 =1 (1) This implies c = 6/11. the remaining parts are straightforward. then the probability exactly 10 bits are sent is P [X = 10] = PX (10) = (0. AR. probabilities and corresponding grades for the experiment are Outcome P[·] BB BC CB CC Quiz 2.1. . that is.

That is. . However.99)98 2 (6) (7) (8) (5) Random variable Z is the number of trials up to and including the third success..9207 100 (0. (1) P[Y < 1] = FY (1− ) = 0 9 Address:104 pine meadows loop. (6) If p = 0.99)98 = 0. we must keep in + mind that when FY (y) has a discontinuity at y0 . AR.com Phone:5017621195 The probability that at least 10 bits are sent is P[X ≥ 10] = ∞ PX (x).15) PZ (z) = z−1 3 p (1 − p)z−3 2 (9) Note that PZ (z) > 0 for z = 3. the probability of exactly 2 errors is P [Y = 2] = PY (2) = 100 (0.99)99 + = 0. hot springs.01)2 (0. .1.4 Each of these probabilities can be read off the CDF FY (y). 4. . (3) The random variable Y is the number of successes in 100 independent trials. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . Just as in Example 2.99)100 + 100(0. its even easier to observe that X ≥ 10 if the first 10 bits are transmitted correctly.0645 2 (10) Quiz 2.25.13. Y has the binomial PMF PY (y) = 100 y p (1 − p)100−y y (4) (3) If p = 0. 5.75)9 = 0. Thus Z has the Pascal PMF (see Example 2. P[X ≥ 10] = 0.01)(0. FY (y) takes the upper value FY (y0 ).3487. However. the probability that the third error occurs on bit 12 is PZ (12) = 11 (0. This x=10 sum is not too hard to calculate.01)2 (0.25)3 (0.01.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.910 = 0. P [X ≥ 10] = P [first 10 bits are correct] = (1 − p)10 For p = 0.1849 2 (5) (4) The probability of no more than 2 errors is P [Y ≤ 2] = PY (0) + PY (1) + PY (2) = (0.

a call is a voice call and C = 25.4 (5) P[Y = 1] = P[Y ≤ 1] − P[Y < 1] = FY (1+ ) − FY (1− ) = 0. the cost T is T = 25N + 40(3 − N ) = 120 − 15N (2) To find the PMF of T .6 = 0.3 c = 40 (1) ⎩ 0 otherwise (2) The expected value of C is E [C] = 25(0. with probability 0.1) = 62 (2) (3) (4) 10 Address:104 pine meadows loop.8 = 0 Quiz 2.3. Otherwise. This corresponds to the PMF ⎧ ⎨ 0.7 c = 25 PC (c) = 0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .1 t = 120 ⎩ 0 otherwise From the PMF PT (t).3) = 29.7.5 (1) With probability 0. we have a data call and C = 40.3ˆˆ N =2 •T =90 r rr 0.8 = 0. 105 PT (t) = 0.2 (4) P[Y ≥ 2] = 1 − P[Y < 2] = 1 − FY (2− ) = 1 − 0. AR.3 N =3 •T =75 From the tree.com Phone:5017621195 (2) P[Y ≤ 1] = FY (1) = 0.3$$N =1 •T =105 $ (2) (1) $ $$ ¨¨$ ˆˆˆ rr ˆ ˆ rr0. 90.3 t = 75.6 (3) P[Y > 2] = 1 − P[Y ≤ 2] = 1 − FY (2) = 1 − 0.3) + 120(0.5 cents Quiz 2.8 − 0.6 (1) As a function of N .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we can write down the PMF of T : ⎧ ⎨ 0.1¨¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ 0.7) + 40(0. the expected value of T is E [T ] = 75PT (75) + 90PT (90) + 105PT (105) + 120PT (120) = (75 + 90 + 105)(0.6 (6) P[Y = 3] = P[Y ≤ 3] − P[Y < 3] = FY (3+ ) − FY (3− ) = 0. we can draw the following tree: N =0 •T =120 0. hot springs.

2 g(A) = 6 A = 3 ⎩ 8 A=4 (3) By Theorem 2.44 = 0.14.8 (3) Since E[A] = 2.1) + 1(0.2) + 4(0. (3) 11 Address:104 pine meadows loop. the expected number of applications is 4 E [A] = a=1 a PA (a) = 1(0.8 = g(E[A]).7 (1) Using Definition 2. The two quantities are different because g(A) is not of the form α A + β.1) + 12 (0.4)2 = 0.8 The PMF PN (n) allows to calculate each of the desired quantities.4 − (1.3) + 6(0.4) + 2(0.663. (1) The expected value of N is 2 E [N ] = n=0 n PN (n) = 0(0. However. g(E[A]) = g(2) = 4. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .44 (4) The standard deviation is σ N = √ Var[N ] = √ 0. the expected number of memory chips is 4 (2) E [M] = a=1 g(A)PA (a) = 4(0. Quiz 2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.4) + 22 (0.5) = 2.1) = 2 (1) (2) The number of memory chips is M = g(A) where ⎧ ⎨ 4 A = 1.5) = 1.1) = 4.4) + 2(0.3) + 3(0.2) + 8(0. E[M] = 4.4 (1) (2) The second moment of N is 2 E N 2 = n=0 n 2 PN (n) = 02 (0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 2. hot springs. AR.10.4 (2) (3) The variance of N is Var[N ] = E N 2 − (E [N ])2 = 2.4) + 4(0.

9. 2. From Theorem 1. .005/0. . 5 = 0. . E [N |N ≤ 10] = n 5 0 n ≤ 10 otherwise (7) (8) (9) n PN |N ≤10 (n) 10 (10) = n=1 n(0.15625 12 Address:104 pine meadows loop. 10 ⎩ 0 otherwise ⎧ ⎨ 0. 2. 2.10 (the law of total probability).005)(5) = 0.8 n = 1. 9. 7.75) + 0. 7. 7.19375) + n=6 n(0. 5 0 otherwise (2) (3) The problem statement tells us that P[T ] = 1 − P[I ] = 3/4. 10 ⎩ 0 otherwise (5) Once we have the conditional PMF. 4.02 n = 1. . 2. we find the PMF of N is PN (n) = PN |T (n) P [T ] + PN |I (n) P [I ] ⎧ ⎨ 0. 4. 8. calculating conditional expectations is easy. 3. .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. 3.005 n = 6. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .17. .19375 n = 1.25) ⎩ 0 otherwise ⎧ ⎨ 0. the conditional PMF of N given the event T is PN |T (n) = 0. 5 = 0.9 (1) From the problem statement. 50 = 0(0. . 8. 5 = 0.00625 n = 6. . .00625) (11) (12) = 3.75) + 0. 2. 5 n = 6. we learn that the conditional PMF of N given the event I is 0. 4.80 (6) By Theorem 2. 50 PN |I (n) = (1) 0 otherwise (2) Also from the problem statement. 2.8 n = 6.02(0. . 3. . 7.155 n = 1. .155/0.02(0. the conditional PMF of N given N ≤ 10 is PN |N ≤10 (n) = PN (n) P[N ≤10] ⎧ ⎨ 0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 2. 4.2 n = 1.25) n = 1.2(0. hot springs. AR.155)(5) + (0. 50 ⎩ 0 otherwise (4) First we find 10 (3) (4) (5) P [N ≤ 10] = n=1 PN (n) = (0. 4. 3. 3.

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.10. for i=1:5. Each time samplemean(k) is called produces a random output. function M=samplemean(k). . .75684 (16) (17) Quiz 2.10 The function samplemean(k) generates and plots five m n sequences for n = 1. m n is fairly random but as n gets 13 Address:104 pine meadows loop.71875 The conditional variance is Var[N |N ≤ 10] = E N 2 |N ≤ 10 − (E [N |N ≤ 10])2 = 12. m k . M(:. Examples of the function calls (a) samplemean(100) and (b) samplemean(1000) are shown in Figure 1. K=(1:k)’.19375) + 2 (14) (15) = 55(0. m 2 . M=zeros(k. .i)=cumsum(X).19375) + 330(0. plot(K.5). .71875 − (3. The ith column M(:.M). . X=duniformrv(0. we first find the conditional second moment E N 2 |N ≤ 10 = n 5 n 2 PN |N ≤10 (n) 10 (13) n 2 (0.i) of M holds a sequence m 1 .15625)2 = 2.k). k.00625) n=6 = n=1 n (0. What is observed in these figures is that for small n. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . ./K. 2.00625) = 12. . . hot springs.com Phone:5017621195 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 50 100 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 500 1000 (a) samplemean(100) (b) samplemean(1000) Figure 1: Two examples of the output of samplemean(k) (6) To find the conditional variance. end. AR.

m n gets close to E[X ] = 5. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . This random convergence is analyzed in Chapter 7.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. 14 Address:104 pine meadows loop. hot springs. m 2 . Although each sequence m 1 .com Phone:5017621195 large. the sequences always converges to E[X ]. that we generate is random. AR. . . .

5] = 1 − P[Y ≤ 1.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.5)/4 = 5/8 Quiz 3. We will evaluate this integral using integration by parts: ∞ −∞ f X (x) d x = 0 ∞ cxe−x/2 d x ∞ 0 (1) ∞ 0 = −2cxe−x/2 =0 + 2ce−x/2 d x (2) = −4ce−x/2 ∞ 0 = 4c (3) Thus c = 1/4 and X has the Erlang (n = 2. λ = 1/2) PDF 0. AR.5) = 1 − (1. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . To find c.5] = 1 − FY (1. hot springs.1 The CDF of Y is 1 FY(y) 0. we use ∞ the fact that −∞ f X (x) d x = 1.2 (1) First we will find the constant c and then we will sketch the PDF.2 0. we can calculate the probabilities: (1) P[Y ≤ −1] = FY (−1) = 0 (2) P[Y ≤ 1] = FY (1) = 1/4 (3) P[2 < Y ≤ 3] = FY (3) − FY (2) = 3/4 − 2/4 = 1/4 (4) P[Y > 1.5 0 0 2 y 4 ⎧ y<0 ⎨ 0 y/4 0 ≤ y ≤ 4 FY (y) = ⎩ 1 y>4 (1) From the CDF FY (y).com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 3 Quiz 3.1 0 0 5 x 10 15 f X (x) = (x/4)e−x/2 x ≥ 0 0 otherwise fX(x) (4) 15 Address:104 pine meadows loop.

com Phone:5017621195 (2) To find the CDF FX (x). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .3 The PDF of Y is 3 fY(y) 2 1 0 −2 0 y 2 f Y (y) = 3y 2 /2 −1 ≤ y ≤ 1. (2) Note that the above calculation wasn’t really necessary because E[Y ] = 0 whenever the PDF f Y (y) is an even function (i.. (9) (10) Quiz 3.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. P [−2 ≤ X ≤ 2] = FX (2) − FX (−2) = 1 − 3e−1 . P [0 ≤ X ≤ 4] = FX (4) − FX (0) = 1 − 3e−2 . AR. (1) (1) The expected value of Y is E [Y ] = ∞ −∞ y f Y (y) dy = 1 −1 (3/2)y 3 dy = (3/8)y 4 1 −1 = 0. FX (x) = 0 x f X (y) dy = 0 x y −y/2 e dy 4 (5) (6) (7) x x 1 y − e−y/2 dy = − e−y/2 − 2 2 0 0 x −x/2 =1− e − e−x/2 2 The complete expression for the CDF is 1 FX(x) 0. we first note X is a nonnegative random variable so that FX (x) = 0 for all x < 0. (4) Similarly.5 0 0 5 x 10 15 FX (x) = 1− 0 x 2 + 1 e−x/2 x ≥ 0 otherwise (8) (3) From the CDF FX (x). f Y (y) = f Y (−y)). (3) 16 Address:104 pine meadows loop. hot springs. 0 otherwise.e. (2) The second moment of Y is E Y2 = ∞ −∞ y 2 f Y (y) dy = 1 −1 (3/2)y 4 dy = (3/10)y 5 1 −1 = 3/5. For x ≥ 0.

it is important to remember that as the standard deviation increases.2.2 fX(x) 0 −5 x ← fX(x) ← f (y) Y 0 y 5 17 Address:104 pine meadows loop. f X (x) = 0 otherwise. we apply Theorem 3.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. (3) (4) The complete expression for the PDF of X is √ √ √ 1/(6 3) 3 − 3 3 ≤ x < 3 + 3 3. (4) (2) We know X is a uniform (a.4 0. b) random variable.4 (1) When X is an exponential (λ) random variable. (4) The standard deviation of Y is σY = Quiz 3. the peak value of the Gaussian PDF goes down. The PDF of X is f X (x) = (1/3)e−x/3 x ≥ 0. Since E[X ] = 3 and Var[X ] = 9. 0 otherwise. a+b =3 2 Var[X ] = (b − a)2 = 9. E[X ] = 1/λ and Var[X ] = 1/λ2 . (5) (z) function and Table 3. The only valid solution with a < b is √ a = 3 − 3 3. To find a and b.6 to write E [X ] = This implies a + b = 6. we must have λ = 1/3. However. AR. √ b = 3 + 3 3. Quiz 3. We start with the sketches. hot springs. 12 (2) √ b − a = ±6 3. (1) √ Var[Y ] = √ 3/5. fY(y) 0.1 (1) The PDFs of X and Y are shown below.5 Each of the requested probabilities can be calculated using or Q(z) and Table 3.com Phone:5017621195 (3) The variance of Y is Var[Y ] = E Y 2 − (E [Y ])2 = 3/5. The fact that Y has twice the standard deviation of X is reflected in the greater spread of f Y (y). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .

2).6826. since X is Gaussian (0.com Phone:5017621195 (2) Since X is Gaussian (0.5 fX(x) 0.75) = 1 − 2 0. AR. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .5) = 2. 1).5 0 −2 (1. (1) The following probabilities can be read directly from the CDF: (1) P[X ≤ 1] = FX (1) = 1. 1). (3) P[X = 1] = FX (1+ ) − FX (1− ) = 1 − 1/2 = 1/2. ⎨ 1/4 f X (x) = (1/2)δ(x − 1) x = 1. (2) P[X < 1] = FX (1− ) = 1/2. P[Y > 3. (2) Quiz 3.6 The CDF of X is 1 FX(x) 0. P [−1 < X ≤ 1] = FX (1) − FX (−1) = (1) − (−1) = 2 (1) − 1 = 0. (3) Since Y is Gaussian (0.5 0 −2 0 x 2 ⎧ −1 ≤ x < 1. P [−1 < Y ≤ 1] = FY (1) − FY (−1) 1 −1 = − σY σY (3) =2 1 − 1 = 0.5] = Q(3. 2). ⎩ 1 x ≥ 1. P[X > 3. ⎩ 0 otherwise.33 × 10−4 . (4) We find the PDF f Y (y) by taking the derivative of FY (y).5 ) = Q(1.75) = 0 x 2 ⎧ x < −1. 2 (4) (1) (2) (4) Again.383.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. ⎨ 0 FX (x) = (x + 1)/4 −1 ≤ x < 1. The resulting PDF is 0. (5) Since Y is Gaussian (0. Quiz 3. hot springs.5] = Q( 3.7 18 Address:104 pine meadows loop.0401.

Also.5 0 −1 X 0 1 x 2 3 ⎧ x < 0. Finally. ⎨ 0 2 /4 0 ≤ x ≤ 2. (2) (2) The probability that Y = 1 is P [Y = 1] = P [X ≥ 1] = 1 − FX (1) = 1 − 3/4 = 1/4. Using the CDF FX (x). (3) (3) Since X is nonnegative.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. Note that when y < 0 or y > 1. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . because Y ≤ 1. hot springs. FX (x) = 1 for x ≥ 2 since its always true that x ≤ 2. (5) 0. the complete expression for the CDF of Y is 1 F (y) 0. FY (y) = P [Y ≤ y] = P [X ≤ y] = FX (y) .5 0 −1 Y (4) 0 As expected. FX (x) = x−x ⎩ 1 x > 2. FY (y) = y−y ⎩ 1 y ≥ 1. ⎨ 0 2 /4 0 ≤ y < 1. 19 Address:104 pine meadows loop. Lastly. Thus FY (y) = 0 for y < 0. FX (x) = x −∞ f X (y) dy = 0 x (1 − y/2) dy = x − x 2 /4. FX (x) = 0 for x < 0.5 0 −1 0 1 y 2 3 1 y 2 3 ⎧ y < 0. for 0 ≤ x ≤ 2.25 f Y (y) = 1 − y/2 + (1/4)δ(y − 1) 0 ≤ y ≤ 1 0 otherwise Y (6) Quiz 3.com Phone:5017621195 (1) Since X is always nonnegative. we obtain the PDF f Y (y). we see that the jump in FY (y) at y = 1 is exactly equal to P[Y = 1].6 . (4) By taking the derivative of FY (y). AR. the PDF is zero. for 0 < y < 1.5 f (y) 1 0. Also. (1) The complete CDF of X is 1 F (x) 0. 1. Y is also nonnegative.8 (1) P[Y ≤ 6] = 6 −∞ f Y (y) dy = 6 0 (1/10) dy = 0. FY (y) = 1 for all y ≥ 1.

20 Address:104 pine meadows loop. 10 (2) (4) From Definition 3. i=i+1. end end A second method exploits the fact that if T is an exponential (λ) random variable. 1/6 0 ≤ y ≤ 6. In this case the command t=2. 0 otherwise.0+exponentialrv(1/3. while (i<m).15. the conditional PDF of Y given Y > 8 is f Y |Y >8 (y) = f Y (y) P[Y >8] 0 y > 8. AR.9 A natural way to produce random variables with PDF f T |T >2 (t) is to generate samples of T with PDF f T (t) and then to discard those samples which fail to satisfy the condition T > 2. t=zeros(m. if (x>2) t(i+1)=x. x=exponentialrv(lambda.com Phone:5017621195 (2) From Definition 3.lambda=1/3.2 .1). 0 otherwise. Here is a M ATLAB function that uses this method: function t=t2rv(m) i=0. 2 (5) Quiz 3. = otherwise.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. (1) 1 dy = 0. we can calculate the conditional expectation E [Y |Y > 8] = ∞ −∞ y f Y |Y >8 (y) dy = 10 8 y dy = 9. then T = T + 2 has PDF f T (t) = f T |T >2 (t).1). we can calculate the conditional expectation E [Y |Y ≤ 6] = ∞ −∞ y f Y |Y ≤6 (y) dy = 6 0 y dy = 3. = otherwise. hot springs. (3) (5) From the conditional PDF f Y |Y ≤6 (y). 1/2 8 < y ≤ 10. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . the conditional PDF of Y given Y ≤ 6 is f Y |Y ≤6 (y) = (3) The probability Y > 8 is P [Y > 8] = 8 10 f Y (y) P[Y ≤6] 0 y ≤ 6.15.m) generates the vector t. 6 (4) (6) From the conditional PDF f Y |Y >8 (y).

we can calculate the requested probabilities by summing the PMF over those values of Q and G that correspond to the event.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.6 (2) The probability that Q = G is P [Q = G] = PQ. 0) + PQ.Y (−∞. (1) The probability that Q = 0 is P [Q = 0] = PQ.18 (3) The probability that G > 1 is 3 1 (1) (2) (3) P [G > 1] = g=2 q=0 PQ. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .G (0. −∞) = P[X ≤ ∞.G (1.12 = 0. Y ≤ 2] ≤ P[X ≤ −∞] = 0 since X cannot take on the value −∞. Y ≤ y] = P[Y ≤ y] = FY (y). 2) = P[X ≤ −∞.G (0. y) = P[X ≤ ∞.2 From the joint PMF of Q and G given in the table.1 Each value of the joint CDF can be found by considering the corresponding probability. (3) FX.16 + 0. 3) = 0. 1) + PQ.18 + 0.08 = 0. (2) FX.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 4 Quiz 4. (1) FX. g) (6) (7) = 0.G (0. 0) + PQ. ∞) = P[X ≤ ∞.12 + 0.1.06 + 0.08 = 0. AR. hot springs.G (0.18 + 0.78 21 Address:104 pine meadows loop. g) (4) (5) = 0. 1) = 0. This result is given in Theorem 4.Y (∞. Y ≤ ∞] = 1.6 (4) The probability that G > Q is 1 3 P [G > Q] = q=0 g=q+1 PQ. 2) + PQ. (4) FX.12 + 0. Y ≤ −∞] = 0 since Y cannot take on the value −∞.24 + 0.24 + 0. Quiz 4.G (q.24 + 0.Y (∞.G (q.16 + 0.Y (∞.G (0.

B (h.6 0. y) d x d y (4) To integrate over A.4 0. b) (1) For each value of h. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .1 0.1 0 0. y = r sin θ and d x d y = r dr dθ . To calculate P[A].B (h. this corresponds to calculating the row sum across the table of the joint PMF.2 h=0 h=1 0. the marginal PMF of B is 1 PB (b) = h=−1 PH. y) d x d y = 1. this corresponds to the column sum down the table of the joint PMF. we write P [A] = A y dy = (c/4)y 2 f X.3.4 PH.1 0. yielding 2 1 Y P [A] = 0 π/2 0 1 0 1 r 2 sin θ cos θ r dr dθ π/2 0 2 π/2 (5) (6) A 1 X = = r 3 dr ⎛ 1 0 sin θ cos θ dθ ⎞ ⎠ = 1/8 r 4 /4 ⎝ sin θ 2 (7) 0 22 Address:104 pine meadows loop. b) b = 0 b = 2 b = 4 PH (h) h = −1 0 0.4 To find the constant c.Y (x. Similarly. AR.5 0. y) d x d y = =c cx y d x dy y 0 2 0 (1) dy 2 0 x 2 /2 1 0 (2) =c (3) = (c/2) Thus c = 1.Y (x. The easiest way to calculate these marginal PMFs is to simply sum each row and column: PH.2 0.1 0 0. we apply ∞ ∞ −∞ −∞ ∞ ∞ −∞ −∞ (3) f X. b) (2) For each value of b.Y (x. the marginal PMF of H is PH (h) = b=0. we convert to polar coordinates using the substitutions x = r cos θ .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. 2 0 0 2 1 f X.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 4.2.3 Quiz 4. hot springs.B (h. Specifically.3 By Theorem 4.2 PB (b) 0.2 0.

⎧ ⎪ 0. For 0 ≤ y ≤ 1.10 (T =24) 0.20 (T =36) 0. hot springs. For each pair of values of L and B. 400 l = 2. f Y (y) = = ∞ −∞ 6 1 f X.2 t = 270 ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 592. For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. 400 0. 000 l = 7. 800 0.6 (A) The time required for the transfer is T = L/B.1 t = 120 PT (t) = ⎪ 0.05 (T =18) 0. y) dy (x + y 2 ) d x = 6 2 x /2 + x y 2 5 x=1 x=0 (4) 6 3 + 6y 2 = (1/2 + y 2 ) = 5 5 (5) 5 0 Since f Y (y) = 0 for y < 0 or y > 1.10 (T =120) 0.2 t = 36.Y (x.B (l. we can calculate the time T needed for the transfer. 600 0.05 t = 180 ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 0. AR.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 4.10 (T =360) b = 28.20 (T =90) 0. the marginal PDF of X is f X (x) = ∞ −∞ f X. 90 ⎪ ⎪ ⎨ 0. f X (x) = 6 5 1 0 (x + y 2 ) dy = 6 x y + y 3 /3 5 y=1 y=0 6x + 2 6 = (x + 1/3) = 5 5 (2) The complete expression for the PDf of X is f X (x) = (6x + 2)/5 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 0 otherwise (3) By the same method we obtain the marginal PDF for Y .20 (T =270) (3 + 6y 2 )/5 0 ≤ y ≤ 1 0 otherwise (6) From the table.Y (x. We can write these down on the table for the joint PMF of L and B as follows: PL .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. the complete expression for the PDF of Y is f Y (y) = Quiz 4.05 (T =180) 0. 000 b = 14.5 By Theorem 4. writing down the PMF of T is straightforward. b) l = 518.1 t = 360 ⎪ ⎪ ⎩ 0 otherwise 23 (1) Address:104 pine meadows loop.00 (T =540) b = 21.05 t = 18 ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 0.1 t = 24 ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ 0.8. 776. y) dy (1) For x < 0 or x > 1. f X (x) = 0.

the variance of L is Var [L] = E L 2 − (E [L])2 = 0.25) + 22 (0. The calculus is simpler if we integrate over the region X Y > w.25 0.15 0. we calculate the CDF FW (w) = P[W ≤ w].T (l.5. As shown below.3 0.25) = 2. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .1 0. Specifically.5. we find the PDF is ⎧ 0 w<0 d FW (w) ⎨ f W (w) = = − ln w 0 ≤ w ≤ 1 ⎩ dw 0 w>1 Quiz 4. PL . we observe that since 0 ≤ X ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ Y ≤ 1. Y 1 w w 1 XY > w FW (w) = 1 − P [X Y > w] =1− =1− 1 1 w w/x 1 w (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) dy dx XY = w X (1 − w/x) d x = 1 − x − w ln x|x=1 x=w = 1 − (1 − w + w ln w) = w − w ln w The complete expression for the CDF is ⎧ w<0 ⎨ 0 FW (w) = w − w ln w 0 ≤ w ≤ 1 ⎩ 1 w>1 By taking the derivative of the CDF. integrating over the region W ≤ w is fairly complex. AR.5 0. hot springs.4 PL (l) 0. For 0 < w < 1.com Phone:5017621195 (B) First.5) + 3(0.5) + 32 (0.25) + 2(0. Since the second moment of L is E L 2 = 12 (0. W = X Y satisfies 0 ≤ W ≤ 1.2 0.15 0.1 0. 24 t = 40 0.6 t = 60 0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. Thus f W (0) = 0 and f W (1) = 1.25 (7) (8) (1) (2) (3) Address:104 pine meadows loop. t) l=1 l=2 l=3 PT (t) (1) The expected value of L is E [L] = 1(0.7 (A) It is helpful to first make a table that includes the marginal PMFs.25) = 4.

4) = 2400.60 l=1 lt PL T (lt) (7) (8) (9) (10) = 1(40)(0. hot springs.3) + 3(40)(0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . Thus Var[T ] = E T 2 − (E [T ])2 = 2400 − 482 = 96. f Y (y) = ∞ −∞ f X.com Phone:5017621195 (2) The expected value of T is E [T ] = 40(0.16(a). y) d x = 0 2 xy dx = 1 2 x y 2 x=1 = x=0 y 2 (13) The complete expressions for the marginal PDFs are f X (x) = 2x 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 0 otherwise f Y (y) = y/2 0 ≤ y ≤ 2 0 otherwise (14) From the marginal PDFs.1) = 96 (4) From Theorem 4. f X (x) = ∞ −∞ f X. 25 Address:104 pine meadows loop. the calculations become easier if we first calculate the marginal PDFs f X (x) and f Y (y). AR. y) dy = 0 2 1 x y dy = x y 2 2 y=2 = 2x y=0 (12) Similarly.2) + 3(60)(0. T ] = 0.15) + 1(60)(0.6) + 602 (0. For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1.15) + 2(40)(0.Y (x. (11) (B) As in the discrete case. T ] = E [L T ] − E [L] E [T ] = 96 − 2(48) = 0 (5) Since Cov[L . the covariance of L and T is Cov [L . the correlation coefficient is ρ L .Y (x.6) + 60(0. it is straightforward to calculate the various expectations. (3) The correlation is 3 (4) (5) (6) E [L T ] = t=40. The second moment of T is E T 2 = 402 (0.T = 0.4) = 48. for 0 ≤ y ≤ 2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1) + 2(60)(0.

T (3. T ) = (3. y) d x. 60). dy = 3 y3 3 = 0 8 9 (21) (4) The covariance of X and Y is Cov [X. T ) = (2. 40) + PL .T (l. P [A] = P [V > 80] = PL .com Phone:5017621195 (1) The first and second moments of X are E [X ] = E X2 = ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ x f X (x) d x = 0 1 2x 2 d x = 1 2 3 1 2 (15) (16) (17) x 2 f X (x) d x = 0 2x 3 d x = The variance of X is Var[X ] = E[X 2 ] − (E[X ])2 = 1/18. (3) The correlation of X and Y is E [X Y ] = = ∞ ∞ −∞ −∞ 1 2 2 2 0 0 x y f X. t) = 26 PL .T |A (l. (2) The first and second moments of Y are E [Y ] = E Y2 4 1 2 y dy = 3 −∞ 0 2 ∞ 2 1 = y 2 f Y (y) dy = y 3 dy = 2 −∞ 0 2 y f Y (y) dy = ∞ 2 (18) (19) The variance of Y is Var[Y ] = E[Y 2 ] − (E[Y ])2 = 2 − 16/9 = 2/9. dy 1 0 (20) 2 x3 x y d x. hot springs.Y = 0.45 By Definition 4.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.9.Y (x. 60) + PL . 40) and (L . AR. the correlation coefficient is ρ X. Y ] = 0. 60). (22) (5) Since Cov[X.8 (A) Since the event V > 80 occurs only for the pairs (L . 60) = 0. Y ] = E [X Y ] − E [X ] E [Y ] = 2 8 − 9 3 4 3 = 0.T (3. Quiz 4.T (2. PL .t) P[A] (1) 0 lt > 80 otherwise (2) Address:104 pine meadows loop. (L . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . T ) = (3.

t) t = 40 t = 60 l=1 0 0 l=2 0 4/9 1/3 2/9 l=3 The conditional expectation of V can be found from the conditional PMF. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . E [V |A] = l t lt PL . 400 9 3 9 It follows that Var [V |A] = E V 2 |A − (E [V |A])2 = 622 2 9 (7) (B) For continuous random variables X and Y . t) (5) (6) 4 1 2 = (2 · 60)2 + (3 · 40)2 + (3 · 60)2 = 18. y) ∈ B 0 otherwise K x y 40 ≤ y ≤ 60.Y (x.T |A (l. AR.801 8 5 2 dy The conditional PDF of X and Y is f X.Y |B (x.com Phone:5017621195 We can represent this conditional PMF in the following table: PL .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. y) = = f X.T |A (l.T |A (l. t) (3) (4) 1 2 1 4 = (2 · 60) + (3 · 40) + (3 · 60) = 133 9 3 9 3 For the conditional variance Var[V |A]. y) d x d y = = = 60 40 60 40 60 3 80/y xy dx dy 4000 x2 2 3 (8) dy (9) (10) (11) y 4000 80/y 9 3200 y − 2 y 40 4000 2 9 4 3 = − ln ≈ 0. P [B] = B f X. we first find the conditional second moment E V 2 |A = l t (lt)2 PL . 80/y ≤ x ≤ 3 0 otherwise 27 (12) (13) Address:104 pine meadows loop.Y (x. y) /P [B] (x. we first calculate the probability of the conditioning event. hot springs.

y) d x d y K x 2 y2 d x d y y2 x 3 x=3 x=80/y (14) (15) = (K /3) = (K /3) 80/y 60 40 60 40 dy (16) (17) (18) 27y 2 − 803 /y dy 60 40 = (K /3) 9y 3 − 803 ln y The conditional second moment of K given B is E W 2 |B = = ∞ ∞ ≈ 120. A table of the joint PMF will include all four possible combinations of A and B. The conditional expectation of W given event B is E [W |B] = = ∞ ∞ −∞ −∞ 60 3 40 x y f X.30 Quiz 4.B (a. 116.9 (24) (A) (1) The joint PMF of A and B can be found from the marginal and conditional PMFs via PA. b) b=0 b=1 a=0 PB|A (0|0)PA (0) PB|A (1|0)PA (0) PB|A (0|2)PA (2) PB|A (1|2)PA (2) a=2 28 Address:104 pine meadows loop. 1}.78 −∞ −∞ 60 3 40 (x y)2 f X. hot springs. The general form of the table is PA. Consequently. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . b) = PB|A (b|a)PA (a).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.Y |B (x.com Phone:5017621195 where K = (4000P[B])−1 .B (a.10 (23) = (K /4) 81y 3 − 804 /y dy 60 40 = (K /4) (81/4)y 4 − 804 ln y It follows that the conditional variance of W given B is Var [W |B] = E W 2 |B − (E [W |B])2 ≈ 1528. Incorporating the information from the given conditional PMFs can be confusing. we can note that A has range S A = {0. 2} and B has range S B = {0. AR. however. y) d x d y K x 3 y3 d x d y y3 x 4 x=3 x=80/y (19) (20) = (K /4) 80/y 60 40 60 40 dy (21) (22) ≈ 16.Y |B (x.

3 a=2 (2) Given the conditional PMF PB|A (b|2). b) a=0 (0. AR. 0) ⎨ PA|B (a|0) = = 0.62 a = 2 (2) ⎩ PB (0) 0 otherwise ⎧ ⎨ 16/31 a = 0 = 15/31 a = 2 (3) ⎩ 0 otherwise (4) We can calculate the conditional variance Var[A|B = 0] using the conditional PMF PA|B (a|0).6) (0.4) (0.B (a.5)(0.32/0.08 0.B (a. hot springs.5) + (1)(0.2)(0.3/0.B (a. b).com Phone:5017621195 Substituting values from PB|A (b|a) and PA (a). it is easy to calculate the conditional expectation 1 E [B|A = 2] = b=0 b PB|A (b|2) = (0)(0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.32 0. we can calculate the the conditional PMF ⎧ 0. y) = f Y |X (y|x) f X (x) = (2) From the given conditional PDF f Y |X (y|x). First we calculate the conditional expected value E [A|B = 0] = a a PA|B (a|0) = 0(16/31) + 2(15/31) = 30/31 (4) The conditional second moment is E A2 |B = 0 = a a 2 PA|B (a|0) = 02 (16/31) + 22 (15/31) = 60/31 (5) The conditional variance is then Var[A|B = 0] = E A2 |B = 0 − (E [A|B = 0])2 = (B) (1) The joint PDF of X and Y is f X.B (a. 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 0 otherwise (7) 960 961 (6) Address:104 pine meadows loop.6) a=2 or PA.Y (x.5)(0. f Y |X (y|1/2) = 29 8y 0 ≤ y ≤ 1/2 0 otherwise (8) 6y 0 ≤ y ≤ x.5 (1) (3) From the joint PMF PA.4) (0.3 0.5) = 0. we have b=0 b=1 PA.62 a = 0 PA. b) b = 0 b = 1 a=0 0.8)(0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .

f Y (1/2) = Thus. (2) For random variables Q and G from Quiz 4. In this case.04 0. 0 ≤ x2 ≤ 2 0 otherwise 30 (2) (3) Address:104 pine meadows loop.Y (x.G (q.12 0. y such that PX. we see that given Y = 1/2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. it is not obvious whether they are independent.40 q=1 PG (g) 0. f X |Y (x|1/2) = f X. Var [X |Y = 1/2] = Quiz 4. Hence Q and G are independent.10 (A) (1) For random variables X and Y from Example 4. Note that whenever PX. we calculate the marginal PMFs from the table of the joint PMF PQ. g.08 0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . g that fail the independence requirement.com Phone:5017621195 (3) The conditional PDF of Y given X = 1/2 is f X |Y (x|1/2) = f X. Thus. we integrate the joint PDF.10 0. the conditional PDF of X is uniform (1/2. 1/2) 6(1/2) =2 = f Y (1/2) 3/2 (10) ∞ −∞ f X. 1).40 0.24 0. PQ. However.16 0.Y (x.X 2 (x1 .G (q.60 0.09 and PX (0) = 0. we can conclude that X and Y are dependent. y) = 0.12 0.06 0.1. independence requires that either PX (x) = 0 or PY (y) = 0. 1) = 0 = PX (0) PY (1) (1) (1 − 1/2)2 1 = 12 48 (11) Since we have found a pair x. b) PDF.G (q.2.Y (0. by the definition of the uniform (a. Unlike X and Y in part (a).Y (x. there are no obvious pairs q.30 0.1/2 ( ) d x = 1 1/2 6(1/2) d x = 3/2 (9) (4) From the pervious part. AR. g) g = 0 g = 1 g = 2 g = 3 PQ (q) q=0 0. y) = PX (x)PY (y). (B) (1) Since X 1 and X 2 are independent.2.01. g) in Quiz 4. for 1/2 ≤ x ≤ 1. To find f Y (1/2).18 0. we observe that PY (1) = 0.Y (x.20 Careful study of the table will verify that PQ. f X 1 . x2 ) = f X 1 (x1 ) f X 2 (x2 ) = (1 − x1 /2)(1 − x2 /2) 0 ≤ x1 ≤ 2. PX. 1/2)/ f Y (1/2). hot springs. g) = PQ (q)PG (g) for every pair q.

the conditional expected value and standard deviation of X given Y = y are 2 E [X |Y = y] = y/2 σ X = σ1 (1 − ρ 2 ) = 3/4. The conditional PDF of X given Y = 2 is simply the Gaussian PDF 1 2 e−2(x−1) /3 . AR. P [Z ≤ z] = P [X 1 ≤ z.11 This problem just requires identifying the various terms in Definition 4. f X |Y (x|2) = √ 3π/2 (5) 31 Address:104 pine meadows loop. we see that E[X |Y = 2] = 1 and Var[X |Y = 2] = 3/4.Y (x. X 2 ≤ z] = P [X 1 ≤ z] P [X 2 ≤ z] = [FX (z)]2 (4) (5) To complete the problem. ˜ (4) When Y = y = 2.17.30. (1) (2) By Theorem 4.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. That is.29. we have 1 2 2 e−2(x −x y+y )/3 . the CDF is ⎧ x <0 ⎨ 0 x 2 /4 0 ≤ x ≤ 2 FX (x) = f X (y) dy = (6) x−x ⎩ −∞ 1 x >2 Thus for 0 ≤ z ≤ 2. we need to find the CDF of each X i .17 and Theorem 4. y) = √ 3π 2 (3) µ2 = µY = 0. Specifically. hot springs. (2) (1) Applying these facts to Definition 4. From the PDF f X (x). FZ (z) = (z − z 2 /4)2 (7) The complete expression for the CDF of Z is ⎧ z<0 ⎨ 0 2 /4)2 0 ≤ z ≤ 2 FZ (z) = (z − z ⎩ 1 z>1 (8) Quiz 4.com Phone:5017621195 (2) Let FX (x) denote the CDF of both X 1 and X 2 . σ2 = σY = 1. and that σ1 = σ X = 1. The CDF of Z = max(X 1 . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . µ1 = µ X = 0. f X. from the problem statement. we know that ρ = 1/2. X 2 ) is found by observing that Z ≤ z iff X 1 ≤ z and X 2 ≤ z.

Also.28.3.1)). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 2. . px=0.px.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.25*ones(4. 1) random variable U . x) PMF. x=finiterv(sx.1).*rand(m.2. That is.y’]. First we observe that X has the discrete uniform (1. 4. given X = x. 3.12 One straightforward method is to follow the approach of Example 4. AR. and an independent uniform (0. xy=[x’. .com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 4. Y has a discrete uniform (1. x 0 otherwise (1) Given X = x. we use an alternate approach. 4) PMF. Instead. . y=ceil(x.m). 0 otherwise. x) PMF via Y = xU . 32 Address:104 pine meadows loop. PX (x) = 1/4 x = 1.4]. we can generate a sample value of Y with a discrete uniform (1. This observation prompts the following program: function xy=dtrianglerv(m) sx=[1. PY |X (y|x) = 1/x y = 1. hot springs. .

Y1 = X 1 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. y3 ∈ {1. x3 ) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x 1 ≤ 33 Address:104 pine meadows loop. . X 3 − X 2 = y3 ] = P [X 1 = y1 .X 2 (x1 .X 3 (x2 . the complete expression for the joint PMF of Y is PY (y) = (1 − p) p a y y1 . we must keep in mind that f X 1 . Y2 = y2 . X 2 = y2 + y1 . we have f X 1 . Within these constraints.X 3 (x1 . (1) (2) (3) x2 x2 0 x3 x1 In particular.3 First we note that each marginal PDF is nonzero only if any subset of the xi obeys the ordering contraints 0 ≤ x 1 ≤ x2 ≤ x3 ≤ 1.X 3 (x2 . x2 ) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x 1 ≤ x2 ≤ 1. . f X 2 . Since 0 < X 1 < X 2 < X 3 . 6 d x2 = 6(x3 − x1 ). x3 ) = f X 1 . 2.2 By definition of A. x2 ) = f X 2 . y2 . Thus. x3 ) = 0 unless 0 ≤ x2 ≤ x3 ≤ 1. 2. P [C] = 0 1/2 y2 1/2 y4 dy2 0 1/2 dy1 0 dy4 0 1/2 4dy3 = 1/4. hot springs. . y2 . x3 ) = ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ f X (x) d x3 = f X (x) d x1 = f X (x) d x2 = 1 6 d x3 = 6(1 − x2 ). and that f X 1 . PY (y) = P [Y1 = y1 . y3 ∈ {1. Y2 = X 2 − X 1 and Y3 = X 3 − X 2 .com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 5 Quiz 5. each Yi must be a strictly positive integer.} 0 otherwise (5) Quiz 5. .X 3 (x1 . Specifically. AR. . X 2 − X 1 = y2 . 6 d x1 = 6x2 . (1) (2) =4 0 y2 dy2 0 y4 dy4 Quiz 5.1 We find P[C] by integrating the joint PDF over the region of interest. X 3 = y3 + y2 + y1 ] = (1 − p)3 p y1 +y2 +y3 (1) (2) (3) (4) By defining the vector a = 1 1 1 . Y3 = y3 ] = P [X 1 = y1 . .X 2 (x1 . for y1 .}. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .

f X 1 (x1 ) = f X 2 (x2 ) = f X 3 (x3 ) = ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ f X 1 . x2 ) d x2 = f X 2 . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . hot springs. the components have dependencies as a result of the ordering constraints Y1 ≤ Y2 and Y3 ≤ Y4 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. x2 ) = f X 2 . Y2 W= Y3 . w) = 4 0 ≤ v1 ≤ v2 ≤ 1. x3 ) d x2 = 1 x1 1 6(1 − x2 ) d x2 = 3(1 − x1 )2 6x2 d x3 = 6x2 (1 − x2 ) 2 6x2 d x2 = 3x3 (7) (8) (9) x2 x3 0 The complete expressions are f X 1 (x1 ) = f X 2 (x2 ) = f X 3 (x3 ) = 3(1 − x1 )2 0 ≤ x1 ≤ 1 0 otherwise 6x2 (1 − x2 ) 0 ≤ x2 ≤ 1 0 otherwise 2 3x3 0 ≤ x3 ≤ 1 0 otherwise (10) (11) (12) Quiz 5.X 3 (x2 . x3 ) = f X 1 . When 0 ≤ xi ≤ 1 for each xi . 0 ≤ w1 ≤ w2 ≤ 1 0 otherwise (2) Y1 . x3 ) d x3 = f X 2 .X 2 (x1 . The complete expressions are f X 1 . We can separate these constraints by creating the vectors V= The joint PDF of V and W is f V.X 3 (x2 .X 2 (x1 . AR.W (v.X 3 (x2 .com Phone:5017621195 x3 ≤ 1.X 3 (x1 . Y4 (1) 34 Address:104 pine meadows loop.4 In the PDF f Y (y). x3 ) = 6(1 − x2 ) 0 ≤ x1 ≤ x2 ≤ 1 0 otherwise 6x2 0 ≤ x2 ≤ x3 ≤ 1 0 otherwise 6(x3 − x1 ) 0 ≤ x1 ≤ x3 ≤ 1 0 otherwise (4) (5) (6) Now we can find the marginal PDFs.

PX (x) = (1) x1 . Similarly. w) = f V (v) f W (w). 0.3) random variable. Quiz 5. confirming that V and W are independent vectors. the vector X = X 1 X 2 X 3 indicating the number of outcomes of each subexperiment has the multinomial PMF ⎧ 5 ⎨ x1 . f V (v) = = 0 1 f V. x2 . For 0 ≤ v1 ≤ v2 ≤ 1. 0. 0 otherwise f W (w) = 2 0 ≤ w 1 ≤ w2 ≤ 1 0 otherwise (8) It is easy to verify that f V. PX i (x) = pix (1 − pi )5−x x = 0. x3 ∈ {0. . .W (v. hot springs.W (v. p) = (5.6) random variable and X 3 is a binomial (5. .1) random variable. for 0 ≤ w1 ≤ w2 ≤ 1.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.19. 5} ⎩ 0 otherwise We can find the marginal PMF for each X i from the joint PMF PX (x).6)x2 (0. A and R. f W (w) = = 4(1 − w1 ) dw1 = 2 f V.6 and p3 = 0. AR.W (v. X 2 is a binomial (5. That is. In five trials. w) dv1 dv2 1 0 1 v1 (6) (7) 4 dv2 dv1 = 2 It follows that V and W have PDFs f V (v) = 2 0 ≤ v1 ≤ v2 ≤ 1 . If we view each test as a trial with success probability P[L] = 0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . for p1 = 0. . each test is a subexperiment with three possible outcomes: L. 1. p2 = 0. 5 0 otherwise 35 5 x (2) Address:104 pine meadows loop.3)x1 (0. . 0. however it is simpler to just start from first principles and observe that X 1 is the number of occurrences of L in five independent tests.x2 . 1.3. .com Phone:5017621195 We must verify that V and W are independent. w) dw1 dw2 1 w1 1 0 (3) (4) (5) 4 dw2 dw1 = Similarly.1)x3 x1 + x2 + x3 = 5.3. . .x3 (0.1. we see that X 1 is a binomial (n.5 (A) Referring to Theorem 1.

1) 5![0. hot springs. since X 1 + X 2 + X 3 = 5 and since each X i is non-negative. We start with 36 Address:104 pine meadows loop. X 2 and X 3 are not independent.3: E [X 1 ] = 0 1 ∞ −∞ x f X i (x) d x of µ X .486 PW (4) = PX 1 (4) + PX 2 (4) + PX 3 (4) = 0.32 (0. or X 3 = w occurs.10 to write f Y (y) = y1 − 4 y2 − 4 y3 − 4 1 . (1) (2) (3) E [X 2 ] = 0 1 E [X 3 ] = 0 1 To find the correlation matrix R X .1458 = (3) (4) (5) In addition.1)2 + 0.6)2 (0.6 We start by finding the components E[X i ] = the marginal PDFs f X i (x) found in Quiz 5. 1. PW (0) = PW (1) = 0. f 3 X 2 2 2 2 (1/8)e−(y3 −4)/2 4 ≤ y1 ≤ y2 ≤ y3 = 0 otherwise (9) (10) (6) (7) (8) Note that for other matrices A. we must use Theorem 5. To do so. Hence. 2.6)(0. the constraints on y resulting from the constraints 0 ≤ X 1 ≤ X 2 ≤ X 3 can be much more complicated. w = 4. PW (2) = PX (1.32 (0. PW (3) = PX 1 (3) + PX 2 (3) + PX 3 (3) = 0.0802 (B) Since each Yi = 2X i + 4.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we see that X 1 . for w = 3.288 PW (5) = PX 1 (5) + PX 2 (5) + PX 3 (5) = 0. X 2 = w.6 to find the PMF of W . Quiz 5. 3x 3 d x = 3/4. In particular. we use 3x(1 − x)2 d x = 1/4. we can apply Theorem 5. Furthermore.1)2 + 0.1)] 2!2!1! = 0. AR. the event W = w occurs if and only if one of the mutually exclusive events X 1 = w. Thus. 6x 2 (1 − x) d x = 1/2.6)2 (0.com Phone:5017621195 From the marginal PMFs.3(0. 2) + PX (2. and w = 5. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 2. . 2) + PX (2. we need to find E[X i X j ] for all i and j.

com Phone:5017621195 the second moments: E 2 X1 = 0 1 3x 2 (1 − x)2 d x = 1/10. x2 ) . 1/4 3/8 ⎦ = 80 1 2 3 3/8 9/16 (17) (18) Address:104 pine meadows loop. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . X has correlation matrix ⎡ ⎤ 1/10 3/20 1/5 R X = ⎣3/20 3/10 2/5⎦ . d x1 d x2 d x1 (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) 6x1 x2 (1 − x2 ) d x2 E [X 2 X 3 ] = 0 1 = E [X 1 X 3 ] = 0 2 4 [3x2 − 3x2 ] d x2 = 2/5 1 x1 1 6x1 x3 (x3 − x1 ) d x3 d x1 . 1 x2 1 0 2 6x2 x3 d x3 d x2 x1 x2 f X 1 . AR. the cross terms are E [X 1 X 2 ] = = = 0 ∞ ∞ −∞ −∞ 1 1 0 1 x1 3 4 [x1 − 3x1 + 2x1 ] d x1 = 3/20.3. (4) (5) (6) 2 E X2 = 2 E X3 = 1 0 1 0 Using marginal PDFs from Quiz 5. x3 =1 x3 =x1 = 0 1 3 2 2 (2x1 x3 − 3x1 x3 ) d x1 = 0 1 2 4 [2x1 − 3x1 + x1 ] d x1 = 1/5. hot springs. Summarizing the results. 6x 3 (1 − x) d x = 3/10. 1/5 2/5 3/5 Vector X has covariance matrix C X = R X − E [X] E [X] ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ 1/10 3/20 1/5 1/4 ⎣3/20 3/10 2/5⎦ − ⎣1/2⎦ = 1/5 2/5 3/5 3/4 ⎡ ⎤ ⎡ 1/10 3/20 1/5 1/16 ⎣3/20 3/10 2/5⎦ − ⎣ 1/8 = 1/5 2/5 3/5 3/16 37 (15) (16) 1/4 1/2 3/4 ⎤ ⎡ ⎤ 3 2 1 1/8 3/16 1 ⎣ 2 4 2⎦ . 3x 4 d x = 3/5.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.X 2 (x1 .

AR.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. rounds off those probabilities. CY=(A’)*CT*A. A=ones(31. we observe that Y = AT where A = 1/31 1/31 · · · 1/31 . Quiz 5.m. [D1 D2]=ndgrid((1:31). The covariance matrix of Y is 1 × 1 and is just equal to Var[Y ]. the first two lines generate the 31 × 31 covariance matrix CT.00002844263128 0.0000. Thus. Its just that the M ATLAB’s short format output. 1 −1 1 2 (2) Quiz 5. The expected value of Y is µY = µT = 80.0000 1. Var[Y ] = ACT A . 1 −1 b= 2 . Since T is a Gaussian random vector..99997155736872 0. or CT . i.0000 0.7 We observe that X = AZ + b where A= 2 1 . Next we calculate Var[Y ]. computing the covariance matrix by calculus can be a time consuming task.(1:31)). p=phi((T-80)/sqrt(CY)). hot springs.9779 1.0000 Note that P[T ≤ 70] is not actually zero and that P[T ≤ 90] is not actually 1. just a Gaussian random variable.50000000000000 0.16 tells us that Y is a 1 dimensional Gaussian vector.5000 0. Here is the output of julytemps.99999999922010 0.97792616932396 38 Address:104 pine meadows loop.0./(1+abs(D1-D2)). CT=36. by Theorem 5.16.8 First. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 0 (1) It follows from Theorem 5. In julytemps. function p=julytemps(T).com Phone:5017621195 This problem shows that even for fairly simple joint PDFs.18 that µ X = b and that C X = AA = 2 1 1 −1 2 1 5 1 = .02207383067604 Columns 5 through 6 0. invoked with the command format short. Here is the long format output: >> format long >> julytemps([70 75 80 85 90 95]) ans = Columns 1 through 4 0.m: >> julytemps([70 75 80 85 90 95]) ans = 0.0221 0. Theorem 5. The final step is to use the (·) function to calculate P[Y < T ].1)/31.e.

p=phi((T-80)/sqrt(CY)). ⎥. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . j) = c|i− j| = 36 . . . The function julytemps2 use the toeplitz to generate the correlation matrix CT . in this problem. c=36. ⎥ ⎢ . . A=ones(31. ⎢ c1 c0 CT = ⎢ . 1 + |i − j| (1) If we write out the elements of the covariance matrix.0. c1 ⎦ .. C X has a special structure. CT=toeplitz(c). the i.1)/31. CY=(A’)*CT*A.com Phone:5017621195 The ndgrid function is a useful to way calculate many covariance matrices. 39 Address:104 pine meadows loop. we see that ⎡ ⎤ c0 c1 · · · c30 ./(1+abs(0:30)). c30 · · · c1 c0 (2) This covariance matrix is known as a symmetric Toeplitz matrix.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. M ATLAB has a toeplitz function for generating them. function p=julytemps2(T). ⎥ . We will see in Chapters 9 and 11 that Toeplitz covariance matrices are quite common. However. . In fact. . jth element is CT (i... AR.. ⎣ . hot springs.

3. the variance of the sum equals the sum of the variances. a conmplete expression for the PDF of W is f W (w) = 6e−2w 1 − e−w 0 w ≥ 0.5n (5) Since the rolls are independent.25n Quiz 6. . (4) 40 Address:104 pine meadows loop. K n denote a sequence of iid random variables each with PMF PK (k) = 1/4 k = 1. hot springs.2 Random variables X and Y have PDFs f X (x) = 3e−3x x ≥ 0 0 otherwise f Y (y) = 2e−2y y ≥ 0 0 otherwise (1) (6) (4) (2) (3) Since X and Y are nonnegative. 4 0 otherwise (1) We can write Wn in the form of Wn = K 1 + · · · + K n . . f W (w) = e−3w e y w 0 = 6 e−2w − e−3w (3) Since f W (w) = 0 for w < 0. .5 Thus the variance of K i is Var[K i ] = E K i2 − (E [K i ])2 = 7. For w > 0.5 − (2.5 E K i2 = (12 + 22 + 32 + 42 )/4 = 7. Hence. By Theorem 6. .5. . .25 Since E[K i ] = 2. the random variables K 1 . .5)2 = 1.1 Let K 1 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. First. we note that the first two moments of K i are E [K i ] = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4)/4 = 2. the expected value of Wn is E [Wn ] = E [K 1 ] + · · · + E [K n ] = n E [K i ] = 2.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 6 Quiz 6. . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . . by Theorem 6. AR. this integral is easy to evaluate. W = X + Y is nonnegative. . . Var[Wn ] = Var[K 1 ] + · · · + Var[K n ] = 1. the PDF of W = X + Y is f W (w) = ∞ −∞ f X (w − y) f Y (y) dy = 6 0 w e−3(w−y) e−2y dy (2) Fortunately. That is. otherwise. . K n are independent.5.

us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . AR. we continue to take derivatives: E K2 = E K3 E K4 d 2 φ K (s) ds 2 d 3 φ K (s) = ds 3 d 4 φ K (s) = ds 4 = 0.2)esk = 0.4 (A) Each K i has MGF φ K (s) = E es K i = es (1 − ens ) es + e2s + · · · + ens = n n(1 − es ) ems (1 − ens )m n m (1 − es )m (1) Since the sequence of K i is independent.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.2(es + 2e2s + 3e3s + 4e4s ) ds Evaluating the derivative at s = 0 yields E [K ] = d φ K (s) ds = 0. Since the expectation of the sum equals the sum of the expectations: E [W ] = α E [X 1 ] + α 2 E [X 2 ] + · · · + α n E [X n ] = 0 41 (3) Address:104 pine meadows loop.2(es + 16e2s + 81e3s + 256e4s ) s=0 s=0 Quiz 6. we need only find the expected value and variance. The first derivative of φ K (s) is d φ K (s) = 0.2(es + 8e2s + 27e3s + 64e4s ) s=0 s=0 = 0. hot springs.3 The MGF of K is 4 φ K (s) = E es K == k=0 (0. Theorem 6.2(1 + 2 + 3 + 4) = 2 s=0 (2) (3) To find higher-order moments.8 (4) (5) (6) (7) = 0.8 says the MGF of J is φ J (s) = (φ K (s))m = (2) (B) Since the set of α j X j are independent Gaussian random variables.2 1 + es + e2s + e3s + e4s (1) We find the moments by taking derivatives.2(es + 4e2s + 9e3s + 16e4s ) s=0 s=0 =6 = 20 = 70. Thus to find the PDF of W .10 says that W is a Gaussian random variable. Theorem 6.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 6.

us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .com Phone:5017621195 Since the α j X j are independent. we see that R has the MGF of an exponential (1/5) random variable.6 to write Var[W ] = α 2 − α 2n+2 [1 + n(1 − α 2 )] (1 − α 2 )2 (6) (4) (5) 2 With E[W ] = 0 and σW = Var[W ].1.12. we can write the PDF of W as f W (w) = 1 2 2π σW e−w 2 /2σ 2 W (7) Quiz 6. 1−s φ N (s) = 1 s 5e . each X i has MGF φ X (s) and random variable N has MGF φ N (s) where φ X (s) = 1 . hot springs.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we can use Math Fact B. 42 Address:104 pine meadows loop. The corresponding PDF is f R (r ) = (1/5)e−r/5 r ≥ 0 0 otherwise (4) This quiz is an example of the general result that a geometric sum of exponential random variables is an exponential random variable. AR. the variance of the sum equals the sum of the variances: Var[W ] = α 2 Var[X 1 ] + α 4 Var[X 2 ] + · · · + α 2n Var[X n ] = α 2 + 2(α 2 )2 + 3(α 2 )3 + · · · + n(α 2 )n Defining q = α 2 .5 (1) From Table 6. R has MGF φ R (s) = φ N (ln φ X (s)) = Substituting the expression for φ X (s) yields φ R (s) = 1 5 1 5 1 5 φ X (s) 1 − 4 φ X (s) 5 (2) −s . (3) (2) From Table 6. 1 − 4 es 5 (1) From Theorem 6.1.

we write P [A > 75] = 1 − P [A ≤ 75] 75 − E [A] A − E [A] ≤ =1− P σA σA 75 − 72 ≈1− 12 = 1 − 0. (6) (7) (8) (9) (5) (4) (3) (6) Once again.9773 = 0.4013 Note that we used Table 3. (3) Using X i to denote the access time of block i. the standard deviation of A is σ A = 12 (5) To use the central limit theorem. Var[A] = Var[X 1 ] + · · · + Var[X 12 ] = 12 Var[X ] = 144 Hence.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.0227 (10) (11) (12) 43 Address:104 pine meadows loop.1 to estimate P [A < 48] = P 48 − E [A] A − E [A] < σA σA 48 − 72 ≈ 12 = 1 − (2) = 1 − 0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 6.5987 = 0. we can write A = X 1 + X 2 + · · · + X 12 Since the expectation of the sum equals the sum of the expectations. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .1 to look up (0. hot springs. AR. we use the central limit theorem and Table 3.25). E [A] = E [X 1 ] + · · · + E [X 12 ] = 12E [X ] = 72 msec (4) Since the X i are independent.6 (1) The expected access time is E [X ] = ∞ −∞ x f X (x) d x = 0 12 x d x = 6 msec 12 (1) (2) The second moment of the access time is E X2 = ∞ −∞ x 2 f X (x) d x = 0 12 x2 d x = 48 12 (2) The variance of the access time is Var[X ] = E[X 2 ] − (E[X ])2 = 48 − 36 = 12.

λ) random variable. we can use the De Moivre-Laplace approximation to estimate P [30 ≤ K 48 ≤ 42] ≈ 42 + 0. The arrival time of the third train is W = X 1 + X 2 + X 3. (3) Using the ordinary central limit theorem and Table 3.5 − 36 30 − 0.16666) − 1 = 0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .66 × 10−5 √ 12 12 (3) 44 Address:104 pine meadows loop. we find that W has expected value and variance E [W ] = 3/λ = 6 Var[W ] = 3/λ2 = 12 (2) (1) By the Central Limit Theorem.7 Random variable K n has a binomial distribution for n trials and success probability P[V ] = 3/4.8 The train interarrival times X 1 . hot springs. X 2 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we found that the sum of three iid exponential (λ) random variables is an Erlang (n = 3. we have (3) 30 − 36 3 = (2) − (−2) (2) (1) P [30 ≤ K 48 ≤ 42] ≈ 2 (2) − 1 = 0. AR. P [W > 20] = P √ W −6 20 − 6 > √ ≈ Q(7/ 3) = 2.11.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 6.1 yields P [30 ≤ K 48 ≤ 42] ≈ Recalling that (−x) = 1 − 42 − 36 − 3 (x). (2) The variance of K 48 is Var[K 48 ] = 48P [V ] (1 − P [V ]) = 48(3/4)(1/4) = 9 Thus K 48 has standard deviation σ K 48 = 3. (1) The expected number of voice calls out of 48 calls is E[K 48 ] = 48P[V ] = 36.9545 (4) Since K 48 is a discrete random variable. From Appendix A. X 3 are iid exponential (λ) random variables.5 − 36 − 3 3 = 2 (2.9687 (4) (5) Quiz 6. (1) In Theorem 6.

Applying s = 7/20 into the Chernoff bound yields P [W > 20] ≤ e−20s (1 − 2s)3 = (10/3)3 e−7 = 0. we set the derivative of h(s) to zero: −20(1 − 2s)3 e−20s + 6e−20s (1 − 2s)2 d h(s) = =0 ds (1 − 2s)6 (6) This implies 20(1 − 2s) = 6 or s = 7/20. 45 Address:104 pine meadows loop.py).*PY. [SX. Quiz 6. SW=SX+SY. By contrast.m sx=0:100.SY]=ndgrid(sx. py=duniformpmf(0. we note that the MGF of W is φW (s) = The Chernoff bound states that P [W > 20] ≤ min e−20s φ X (s) = min s≥0 s≥0 λ λ−s 3 = 1 (1 − 2s)3 e−20s (1 − 2s)3 (4) (5) To minimize h(s) = e−20s /(1 − 2s)3 .5.sy).0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . sw=unique(SW). pmfplot(sw. it is a valid bound. it should be apparent that the finitepmf function is implementing the convolution of the two PMFs.0338 s=7/20 (7) (3) Theorem 3.sx).100.’\itP_W(w)’).sw).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. px=binomialpmf(100. PW=PX. 3) random variable W satisfies 2 (λw)k e−λw FW (w) = 1 − (8) k! k=0 Equivalently.sy=0:100. hot springs.’\itw’. pw=finitepmf(SW.9 One solution to this problem is to follow the approach of Example 6.11 says that for any w > 0.0028 (9) (10) Although the Chernoff bound is relatively weak in that it overestimates the probability by roughly a factor of 12. [PX.pw. P [W > 20] = 1 − FW (20) = e−10 1 + 10 102 + 1! 2! = 61e−10 = 0. the CDF of the Erlang (λ. the Central Limit Theorem approximation grossly underestimates the true probability.sy). A graph of the PMF PW (w) appears in Figure 2 With some thought.com Phone:5017621195 (2) To use the Chernoff bound.19: %unifbinom100.PW. for λ = 1/2 and w = 20. AR.PY]=ndgrid(px.

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

0.01 0.008 PW(w) 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 w 120 140 160 180 200

Figure 2: From Quiz 6.9, the PMF PW (w) of the independent sum of a binomial (100, 0.5) random variable and a discrete uniform (0, 100) random variable.

46

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Quiz Solutions – Chapter 7
Quiz 7.1 An exponential random variable with expected value 1 also has variance 1. By Theorem 7.1, Mn (X ) has variance Var[Mn (X )] = 1/n. Hence, we need n = 100 samples. Quiz 7.2 The arrival time of the third elevator is W = X 1 + X 2 + X 3 . Since each X i is uniform (0, 30), (30 − 0)2 Var [X i ] = = 75. (1) E [X i ] = 15, 12 Thus E[W ] = 3E[X i ] = 45, and Var[W ] = 3 Var[X i ] = 225. (1) By the Markov inequality, P [W > 75] ≤ (2) By the Chebyshev inequality, P [W > 75] = P [W − E [W ] > 30] ≤ P [|W − E [W ]| > 30] ≤ 225 Var [W ] 1 = = 2 900 4 30 (3) (4) E [W ] 45 3 = = 75 75 5 (2)

Quiz 7.3 Define the random variable W = (X − µ X )2 . Observe that V100 (X ) = M100 (W ). By Theorem 7.6, the mean square error is E (M100 (W ) − µW )2 = Observe that µ X = 0 so that W = X 2 . Thus, µW = E X
2

Var[W ] 100

(1)

=

1 −1 1 −1

x 2 f X (x) d x = 1/3 x 4 f X (x) d x = 1/5

(2) (3)

E W2 = E X4 =

Therefore Var[W ] = E[W 2 ] − µ2 = 1/5 − (1/3)2 = 4/45 and the mean square error is W 4/4500 = 0.000889.

47

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195

Quiz 7.4 Assuming the number n of samples is large, we can use a Gaussian approximation for Mn (X ). SinceE[X ] = p and Var[X ] = p(1 − p), we apply Theorem 7.13 which says that the interval estimate Mn (X ) − c ≤ p ≤ Mn (X ) + c (1) has confidence coefficient 1 − α where α =2−2 √ c n . p(1 − p)

(2)

We must ensure for every value of p that 1 − α ≥ 0.9 or α ≤ 0.1. Equivalently, we must have √ c n ≥ 0.95 (3) p(1 − p) √ for every value of p. Since (x) is an increasing function of x, we must satisfy c n ≥ 1.65 p(1 − p). Since p(1 − p) ≤ 1/4 for all p, we require that 1.65 0.41 c≥ √ = √ . 4 n n The 0.9 confidence interval estimate of p is 0.41 0.41 Mn (X ) − √ ≤ p ≤ Mn (X ) + √ . n n (5) (4)

√ For the 0.99 confidence interval, we have α ≤ 0.01, implying (c n/( p(1− p))) ≥ 0.995. √ This implies c n√ 2.58 p(1 − p). Since p(1 − p) ≤ 1/4 for all p, we require that ≥ c ≥ (0.25)(2.58)/ n. In this case, the 0.99 confidence interval estimate is 0.645 0.645 Mn (X ) − √ ≤ p ≤ Mn (X ) + √ . n n Note that if M100 (X ) = 0.4, then the 0.99 confidence interval estimate is 0.3355 ≤ p ≤ 0.4645. The interval is wide because the 0.99 confidence is high. Quiz 7.5 Following the approach of bernoullitraces.m, we generate m = 1000 sample paths, each sample path having n = 100 Bernoulli traces. at time k, OK(k) counts the fraction of sample paths that have sample mean within one standard error of p. The program bernoullisample.m generates graphs the number of traces within one standard error as a function of the time, i.e. the number of trials in each trace. 48 (7) (6)

Address:104 pine meadows loop, hot springs, AR, us (United States) Zip Code:71901

nn=(1:n)’*ones(1.n. the fraction of traces within one standard error approaches 2 (1) − 1 ≈ 0.’-s’).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.com Phone:5017621195 function OK=bernoullisample(n. as m gets large.6 0.m). stderrmat=stderr*ones(1. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .5): 1 0. The following graph was generated by bernoullisample(100.2)/m. x=reshape(bernoullirv(p.5. though perhaps unexpected./sqrt((1:n)’).4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 As we would expect. hot springs.9 0.OK.68.m). OK=sum(abs(MN-p)<stderrmat./nn. AR.8 0. MN=cumsum(x).0.p). is examined in Problem 7. stderr=sqrt(p*(1-p)). 49 Address:104 pine meadows loop.5 0. plot(1:n.2.7 0.m).5000.m. The unusual sawtooth pattern.m*n).

· · · . the conditional PMFs of K are PK |H0 (k) = PK |H1 (k) = 104k e−10 k! 4 (4) (5) 0 106k e−10 k! 6 k = 0. A reasonable choice is to reject the hypothesis if X is too small. X 2 ≤ x. 976 photons. From Theorem 8. FX (x) = FX i (x) 15 (2) = 1 − e−x 15 (3) To design a significance test. .33. 1.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 8 Quiz 8. the MAP and ML tests are the same.01 It is straightforward to show that r = − ln 1 − (0. . then we reject the hypothesis. For a significance level of α = 0. the CDF of the maximum of X 1 . This implies that for x ≥ 0. hot springs. . . 1. Quiz 8. . ln 100 ∗ k ∈ A1 otherwise. AR.1 From the problem statement. This rule simplifies to 106 − 104 k ∈ A0 if k ≤ k = = 214.7. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . .6.33 Hence. . . . then we accept hypothesis H1 . (3) k ∈ A1 otherwise. 50 Address:104 pine meadows loop. . we obtain α = P [X ≤ r ] = (1 − e−r )15 = 0. if we observe X < 1.2 From the problem statement. each X i has PDF and CDF f X i (x) = e−x x ≥ 0 0 otherwise FX i (x) = 0 x <0 1 − e−x x ≥ 0 (1) Hence.01. 975. otherwise k = 0. the ML hypothesis rule is k ∈ A0 if PK |H0 (k) ≥ PK |H1 (k) . X 15 obeys FX (x) = P [X ≤ x] = P [X 1 ≤ x. otherwise (1) (2) 0 Since the two hypotheses are equally likely. X 15 ≤ x] = [P [X i ≤ x]]15 . (4) Thus if we observe at least 214.01)1/15 = 1. let R = {X ≤ r }. we must choose a rejection region for X .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. That is.

the existing program sqdistor already calculates this miss probability PMISS = P01 and the false alarm probability PFA = P10 .. Next.2). [XX.2’. legend(’\it d=0.1)/m.. x= -v+randn(m.T).FM1(:.m. P[C|H0 ] = P[C|Hi ] for all i. X 2 ) ∈ A j for some j = i..2).m. Since N1 and N2 are iid Gaussian (0. it is easier to calculate the probability of a correct decision.1). xlabel(’P_{FA}’). the probability 2 PERR = 1 − P [C] = 1 − E 2σ 2 (5) Quiz 8. the conditional probability of a correct decision is √ √ P [C|H0 ] = P [X 1 > 0.’:k’).m. a symbol error occurs when si is transmitted but (X 1 . FM2=sqdistroc(v.’-k’. X 2 > 0|H0 ] = P E/2 + N1 > 0.0. ’\it d=0.0. σ ) random variables. FM=[FM1 FM2 FM5]. AR.3’.m.. P01=sum((XX+d*(XX. we have √ √ P [C] = P [C|H0 ] = P E/2 + N1 > 0 P E/2 + N2 > 0 (2) √ 2 (3) = P N1 > − E/2 √ 2 − E/2 (4) = 1− σ Since (−x) = 1 − of error is (x). Here is the modified code: function FM=sqdistroc(v. loglog(FM1(:.3) ylabel(’P_{MISS}’). N is Gauss(0.d.’--k’. FM5(:.0.2).TT]=ndgrid(x. FM2(:. Given H0 . E/2 + N2 > 0 (1) Because of the symmetry of the signals.T(:)). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 51 Address:104 pine meadows loop. P10=sum((XX+d*(XX.FM5(:. function FM=sqdistrocplot(v.T).com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 8. .TT]=ndgrid(x.1).3.T).T(:)). FM1=sqdistroc(v.1.3 For the QPSK system. Equivalently.ˆ2)< TT). %add N volts. . hot springs. FM=[P10(:) P01(:)]. This implies the probability of a correct decision is P[C] = P[C|H0 ].Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1) %add d(v+N)ˆ2 distortion %receive 1 if x>T. FM5=sqdistroc(v. we have P[C] = 2( E/2σ 2 ).m is essentially the same as sqdistor except the output is a matrix FM whose columns are the false alarm and miss probabilities.T).m.FM2(:. For a QPSK system. The modified program.1).. the program sqdistrocplot.1)).1’.m calls sqdistroc three times to generate a plot that compares the receiver performance for the three requested values of d.’\it d=0.2..ˆ2)>TT)..1).1)/m. otherwise 0 %FM = [P(FA) P(MISS)] x=(v+randn(m.T) %square law distortion recvr %P(error) for m bits tested %transmit v volts or -v volts. sqdistroc. [XX.4 To generate the ROC.

3 −5 10 10 −4 10 −3 10 PFA −2 10 −1 10 0 T=-3:0. sqdistrocplot(3.1 d=0. AR. sqdistrocplot(3. the commands T=-3:0.T). 52 Address:104 pine meadows loop.1:3.2 d=0.4 with squared distortion. Figure 3: The receiver operating curve for the communications system of Quiz 8. 10 0 10 −1 10 PMISS 10 10 −2 −3 −4 10 −5 d=0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. generated the plot shown in Figure 3.100000.1:3.100000. hot springs.com Phone:5017621195 To see the effect of d.T).

com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 9 Quiz 9. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1 (1) First. y) = f Y (y) 2 3y + 2x 3y 2 0 0≤x ≤y otherwise (2) (2) The minimum mean square error estimate of X given Y = y is x M (y) = E [X |Y = y] = ˆ 0 y 2x 2 2x + 2 3y 3y d x = 5y/9 (3) ˆ Thus the MMSE estimator of X given Y is X M (Y ) = 5Y /9. f X (x) = x 1 2(y + x) dy = y 2 + 2x y y=1 y=x = 1 + 2x − 3x 2 (4) (5) For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. we calculate the marginal PDF for 0 ≤ y ≤ 1: f Y (y) = 0 y 2(y + x) d x = 2x y + x 2 x=y x=0 = 3y 2 (1) This implies the conditional PDF of X given Y is f X |Y (x|y) = f X. For 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. we need the marginal PDF f X (x). AR. the conditional PDF of Y given X is f Y |X (y|x) = 2(y+x) 1+2x−3x 2 0 x ≤y≤1 otherwise (6) (4) The MMSE estimate of Y given X = x is y M (x) = E [Y |X = x] = ˆ x 1 2y 2 + 2x y dy 1 + 2x − 3x 2 y=1 y=x (7) (8) (9) 2y 3 /3 + x y 2 = 1 + 2x − 3x 2 = 2 + 3x − 5x 3 3 + 6x − 9x 2 53 Address:104 pine meadows loop. (3) To obtain the conditional PDF f Y |X (y|x).Y (x. hot springs.

com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 9. Cov [T. R] = Var[T ] = 9.3 When R = r .4. E[T X ] = E[T ]E[X ] = 0 and E[T 2 ] = Var[T ].2 (1) Since the expectation of the sum equals the sum of the expectations. The conditional PDF of X given R is 1 2 f X |R (x|r ) = √ e−(x+40+40 log10 r ) /128 128π 54 (1) Address:104 pine meadows loop. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . ˆ TL (R) = Hence a ∗ = 3/4 and b∗ = 0. the correlation coefficient of T and R is ρT. Thus Cov[T. the variance of the sum R = T + X is Var[R] = Var[T ] + Var[X ] = 9 + 3 = 12 (3) Since T and R have expected values E[R] = E[T ] = 0.R = σT /σ R . (6) By Theorem 9.R (R − E [R]) + E [T ] σR Since E[R] = E[T ] = 0 and ρT. the conditional PDF of X = Y −40−40 log10 r is Gaussian with expected value −40 − 40 log10 r and variance 64.R ) = 9(1 − 3/4) = 9/4 L 2 σT (5) σR R= 2 2 σT 2 2 σT + σ X R= 3 R 4 (6) (7) Quiz 9. R] = E [T R] = E [T (T + X )] = E T 2 + E [T X ] (3) (2) (1) Since T and X are independent and have zero expected value. the mean square error of the linear estimate is 2 e∗ = Var[T ](1 − ρT. hot springs.8.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. E [R] = E [T ] + E [X ] = 0 (2) Since T and X are independent. AR. R] = = 3/2 σR Var[R] Var[T ] (4) (5) From Theorem 9.R = √ √ σT Cov [T. the optimum linear estimate of T given R is σT ˆ TL (R) = ρT. (4) From Definition 4.4.

Hence. the complete description of the MAP estimate is rMAP (x) = ˆ 1000 x < −156. if x = −120dB. we can use Definition 9.3 −x/40 x ≥ −156. AR. r ) ˆ 0≤r ≤1000 Note that we have included the constraint r ≤ 1000 in the maximization to highlight the fact that under our probability model. 55 Address:104 pine meadows loop. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .3 dB.1236)10 (9) For example.1236)10−x/40 (8) This is the MAP estimate of R given X = x as long as r ≤ 1000 m. the MAP estimate takes into account that the distance can never exceed 1000 m. r ). When x ≤ −156. hot springs. yielding log10 r = −1 − x/40 or rML (x) = (0.6 m. for very low signal strengths. the MAP estimate of R given X = x is the value of r that maximizes f X. This corresponds to a distance estimate of rML (−120) = 100 m.6% larger than the ML estimate.6. which is not possible in our probability model. note that a typical figure for the signal strength might be x = −120 dB.2 to write the ML estimate of R given X = x as rML (x) = arg max f X |R (x|r ) ˆ r ≥0 (2) We observe that f X |R (x|r ) is maximized when the exponent (x + 40 + 40 log10 r )2 is minimized. This reflects the fact that large values of R are a priori more probable than small values. r ) = f X |R (x|r ) f R (r ) = 106 32π 1 √ r e−(x+40+40 log10 r ) 2 /128 (5) From Theorem 9. R ≤ 1000 m.R (x.3 (0. However.R (x. the MAP estimate is 23.R (x. the above estimate will exceed 1000 m.1)10−x/40 m ˆ (3) (4) If the result doesn’t look correct. r ) with respect to r to zero yields e−(x+40+40 log10 r ) Solving for r yields r = 10 1 25 log10 e −1 2 /128 1− 80 log10 e (x + 40 + 40 log10 r ) = 0 128 (7) 10−x/40 = (0. When the measured signal ˆ strength is not too low.R (x.com Phone:5017621195 From the conditional PDF f X |R (x|r ).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. That is. we observe that the joint PDF of X and R is f X. then rMAP (−120) = 123. ˆ For the MAP estimate. (6) rMAP (x) = arg max f X. This minimum occurs when the exponent is zero. Setting the derivative of f X.

n = 2 and we wish to estimate X 2 given the observation vector Y = Y1 Y2 .9 .1 (4) 1 1 = = 0. it follows that b∗ = 0.7. This implies RY = E XX + E WW = RX + RW = In addition.7. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . Var[Y2 ] b ∗ = µ X 2 − a ∗ µ Y2 . Note that X and W have correlation matrices RX = 1 −0.1 (6) In terms of Theorem 9. Y2 ] = E [X 2 Y2 ] = E [X 2 (X 2 + W2 )] = E X 2 = 1 2 2 Var[Y2 ] = Var[X 2 ] + Var[W2 ] = E X 2 + E W2 = 1. we calculate the correlation coefficient ρ X 2 .1 (9) Address:104 pine meadows loop. to compute the expected square error.9 1.1 0 . the LMSE estimate of X 2 given Y2 is X 2 (Y2 ) = a ∗ Y2 + b∗ where a∗ = Cov [X 2 . E[WX ] = 0. −0.Y2 ) = 1 − L Cov [X 2 .1 −0. we need to find RYX 2 = E [YX 2 ] = E [Y1 X 2 ] E [(X 1 + W1 )X 2 ] = .9 . AR. To apply Theorem 9. Finally.1 11 (5) (2) Since Y = X + W and E[X] = E[W] = 0. Similarly.1.7. E[XW ] = E[X]E[W ] = 0. (7) (8) Because X and W are independent. Because µ X 2 = µY2 = 0. hot springs.4 ˆ (1) From Theorem 9. 2 Cov [X 2 .com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 9. (1) Because E[X] = E[Y] = 0.Y2 = The expected square error is 2 e∗ = Var[X 2 ](1 − ρ X 2 . it follows that E[Y] = 0. −0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. 0 0. we need to find RY and RYX 2 . RY = E YY = E (X + W)(X + W ) = E XX + XW + WX + WW . Y2 ] 1 =√ σ X 2 σY2 1.0909 1. Thus we can apply Theorem 9.4.9 1 RW = 0. E [Y2 X 2 ] E [(X 2 + W2 )X 2 ] 56 (10) 1.1 (2) (3) It follows that a ∗ = 1/1. Y2 ] .

the optimum linear estimator of X 2 given Y1 and Y2 is ˆ ˆ X L = a Y = −0. hot springs. Since X and W are independent. Thus. AR.X 2 = 0. jth entry RW (i. The question we must address is what value c minimizes e∗ . Y E[WX ] = 0 and E[X W ] = 0 . (11) 2 1 E X2 By Theorem 9.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. E[W1 X 2 ] = E[W1 ]E[X 2 ] = 0 and E[W2 X 2 ] = 0. j) = c|i− j|−1 . (14) (13) Quiz 9.5 Since X and W have zero expected value.225 0. By the same reasoning. ˆ a = R−1 RYX = 11 + RW Y and the optimal linear estimator is ˆ X L (Y) = 1 11 + RW The mean square error is ˆ e∗ = Var[X ] − a RYX = 1 − 1 11 + RW L −1 −1 −1 (1) (2) (3) (4) 1 (5) Y (6) 1 (7) Now we note that RW has i. X L (Y) = a Y where a = R−1 RYX . This problem is atypical in that one does not usually get L 57 Address:104 pine meadows loop.725Y2 .725 (12) Therefore. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .7. This implies RYX = E [YX ] = E [(1X + W)X ] = 1E X 2 = 1.0725.7. Y also has zero expected value. ˆ a = R−1 RYX 2 = Y −0. by ˆ ˆ ˆ Theorem 9. Thus.X 2 − a2rY2 .225Y1 + 0.9 RYX 2 = = . the correlation matrix of Y is RY = E YY = E (1X + W)(1 X + W ) = 11 E X 2 + 1E X W + E [WX ] 1 + E WW = 11 + RW Note that 11 is a 20 × 20 matrix with every entry equal to 1.com Phone:5017621195 Since X and W are independent vectors. Thus E[X 1 X 2 ] −0. The mean square error is ˆ Var [X 2 ] − a RYX 2 = Var [X ] − a1rY1 .

hot springs.1).com Phone:5017621195 to choose the correlation structure of the noise.4500 1 0. i) = 1/c. We note that the answer is not obviously apparent from Equation (7). AR.optk]=min(msec).2 0 0. xlabel(’c’). if c is large Wi and W j are highly correlated and the separate measurements of X are very dependent. [msemin. msec=zeros(size(c)).01:0. In particular. our 20 measurements will be all the same and one measurement is as good as 20 measurements. when c is small. However. On the other hand. both small values and large values of c result in large MSE. we observe that Var[Wi ] = RW (i.af]=mquiz9(c). This would suggest that large values of c will also result in poor MSE. af=(inv(RY))*v1. RY=(v1*(v1’)) +RW. cmin=c(optk).ˆ((0:19)-1)). mse=1-((v1’)*af). [msec(k). Note in mquiz9 that v1 corresponds to the vector 1 of all ones. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . end plot(c. In this case.6 0. consider the extreme case in which every Wi and W j have correlation coefficient ρi j = 1.4 0. RW=toeplitz(c.8 e* L 0. 58 Address:104 pine meadows loop.ylabel(’e_Lˆ*’). we write a M ATLAB function mquiz9(c) to calculate the MSE for a given c and second function that finds plots the MSE for a range of values of c. for k=1:length(c). Thus.5 c 1 As we see in the graph. The following commands finds the minimum c and also produces the following graph: >> c=0. If this argument is not clear. >> mquiz9minc(c) ans = 0. To find the optimal value of c. v1=ones(20.01:0. the noises Wi have high variance and we would expect our estimator to be poor. function cmin=mquiz9minc(c).af]=mquiz9(c(k)).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we will see that the answer is somewhat instructive. function [mse.msec).99.

2 (1) We obtain a continuous time. . s) is • m(0. the interarrival times of the N new arrivals • H . . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . A correct answer specifies enough random variables to specify the sample path exactly. One choice for an alternate set of random variables that would specify m(t. continuous valued process. we round the temperature to the nearest degree.1 There are many correct answers to this question. D H .2 (2) 59 Address:104 pine meadows loop. . the number of new calls that arrive during the experiment • X 1 . discrete valued process. the number of ongoing calls at the start of the experiment • N .01 950 ≤ r ≤ 1050 0 otherwise (1) The probability that a test produces a 1% resistor is p = P [990 ≤ R ≤ 1010] = 1010 990 (0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 10 Quiz 10. . (4) Rounding the samples in part (c) to the nearest integer degree yields a discrete time. then we obtain a discrete time. continuous valued process when we record the temperature as a continuous waveform over time. . X N . AR. Quiz 10. (2) If at every moment in time.3 (1) Each resistor has resistance R in ohms with uniform PDF f R (r ) = 0. then we obtain a continuous time. . . .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. discrete valued process.01) dr = 0. hot springs. s). the call completion times of the H calls that hang up Quiz 10. the number of calls that hang up during the experiment • D1 . (3) If we sample the process in part (a) every T seconds.

. 9 otherwise (4) Since p = 0. . E[T1 ] = 1/ p = 5.8)4 (0. t − 1 followed by a success on trial t. .. exactly t resistors are tested. just as in Example 2. This problem is easy if we view each resistor test as an independent trial. .4 Since each X i is a N (0. A success occurs on a trial with probability p if we find a 1% resistor. AR. each X i has PDF 1 2 f X (i) (x) = √ e−x /2 2π By Theorem 10. .1. Thus E [T2 |T1 = 10] = E [T1 |T1 = 10] + E T |T1 = 10 = 10 + E T = 10 + 5 = 15 (5) (6) Quiz 10. hot springs. the number of 1% resistors found has the binomial PMF PN (t) (n) = p n (1 − p)t−n n = 0. 1) random variable. the probability the first 1% resistor is found in exactly five seconds is PT1 (5) = (0. . Consequently. independent of any other resistor. The first 1% resistor is found at time T1 = t if we observe failures on trials 1. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .. a geometric random variable with success probability p has expected value 1/ p. (5) Note that once we find the first 1% resistor.2. . Each resistor is a 1% resistor with probability p. .X (n) (x1 .2) = 0.5.. . . . . 1. t 0 otherwise t n (3) (3) First we will find the PMF of T1 . Hence.. . 2. xn ) = i=1 f X (xi ) = 1 2 2 e−(x1 +···+xn )/2 n/2 (2π ) (2) 60 Address:104 pine meadows loop. . That is.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.08192. T2 = T1 + T where T is independent and identically distributed to T1 . In this problem. T1 has the geometric PMF PT1 (t) = (1 − p)t−1 p t = 1.com Phone:5017621195 (2) In t seconds. . (4) From Theorem 2. the joint PDF of X = X 1 · · · X n is k (1) f X (x) = f X (1).11. the number of additional trials needed to find the second 1% resistor once again has a geometric PMF with expected value 1/ p since each independent trial is a success with probability p.

com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 10. 2. Let X 1 . PM1 .5 The first and second hours are nonoverlapping intervals. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . That is. . m 2 ) = PM1 (m 1 ) PM2 (m 2 ) = ⎪ ⎪ ⎩ 0 otherwise. . Theorem 3. 000. This implies M1 and M2 are independent Poisson random variables each with PMF PMi (m) = α m e−α m! 0 m = 0.13 states that W (t) − W (s) is Gaussian with expected value E [X (t) − X (s)] = and variance E (W (t) − W (s))2 = E (W (t) − W (s))2 α(t − s) = α α (3) E [W (t) − W (s)] =0 √ α (2) Consider s ≤ s √ t. we look at the interarrival times. Quiz 10. 1. X (t) − X (s) = W (t) − W (s) √ α (1) Since W (t) − W (s) is a Gaussian random variable. . see Theorem 6. AR. W (t) − W (s) is independent of W (s ). . we note that for t > s. Y1 is an Erlang (n = 2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. . Since Yi (t). otherwise (1) Since M1 and M2 are independent. the time until the first arrival of the N (t) is Y1 = X 1 + X 2 . Thus N (t) is not a Poisson process. X (t) − X (s) is independent of X (s ) for all s ≥ s .7 First. X 2 . Since s ≥ s . 61 Address:104 pine meadows loop. .6 To answer whether N (t) is a Poisson process. Since X 1 and X 2 are independent exponential (λ) random variables. . . Since one hour equals 3600 sec and the Poisson process has a rate of 10 packets/sec. This implies < √ [W (t) − W (s)]/ α is independent of W (s )/ α for all s ≥ s . the joint PMF of M1 and M2 is ⎧ α m 1 +m 2 e−2α m 1 = 0. has the same PDF as Y1 (t). λ) random variable. (2) Quiz 10. . . 1. . 1.11. Thus X (t) is a Brownian motion process with variance Var[X (t)] = t. denote the interarrival times of the N (t) process. ⎪ m 1 !m 2 ! ⎪ ⎨ m 2 = 0.M2 (m 1 . Since we count only evennumbered arrival for N (t). we can conclude that the interarrival times of N (t) are not exponential random variables. . hot springs. the ith interarrival time of the N (t) process. the expected number of packets in each hour is E[Mi ] = α = 36. . .

. X 1 . .. .10 We must check whether each function R(τ ) meets the conditions of Theorem 10. . Quiz 10. . we have RY (t. n m and time offset k. Since RY (t. . (1) To find the autocorrelation.. .12: R(τ ) ≥ 0 R(τ ) = R(−τ ) |R(τ )| ≤ R(0) (1) (3) (2) (1) (1) R1 (τ ) = e−|τ | meets all three conditions and thus is valid. τ ) = E[Y (t)Y (t + τ )]. . xm ) = f X (x1 ) f X (x2 ) · · · f X (xm ) Similarly. . . for time instants n 1 + k. τ ) + R N (t. ... . .. . xm ) Since the random sequence is iid. ... E[X (t)N (t )] = E[X (t)]E[N (t )] = 0. .X nm (x1 ..8 First we find the expected value µY (t) = µ X (t) + µ N (t) = µ X (t). . . xm ) = f X (x1 ) f X (x2 ) · · · f X (xm ) We can conclude that the iid random sequence is stationary. is a stationary random sequence if for all sets of time instants n 1 .14. . . we observe that since X (t) and N (t) are independent and since N (t) has zero expected value. τ ).com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 10... xm ) = f X n1 +k . . n m + k.X nm +k (x1 . hot springs..Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. (2) R2 (τ ) = e−τ also is valid. . f X n1 . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .. X 2 . f X n1 +k . f X n1 ...X nm +k (x1 . τ ) = E [(X (t) + N (t)) (X (t + τ ) + N (t + τ ))] = E [X (t)X (t + τ )] + E [X (t)N (t + τ )] + E [X (t + τ )N (t)] + E [N (t)N (t + τ )] = R X (t.X nm (x1 . AR. (2) (3) (4) Quiz 10. 2 (3) R3 (τ ) = e−τ cos τ is not valid because R3 (−2π ) = e2π cos 2π = e2π > 1 = R3 (0) (4) R4 (τ ) = e−τ sin τ also cannot be an autocorrelation function because 2 (2) R4 (π/2) = e−π/2 sin π/2 = e−π/2 > 0 = R4 (0) (3) 62 Address:104 pine meadows loop... . .9 From Definition 10. . . .

τ ) is just a function of τ . AR. as t gets larger. Y (t) = X (−t) and X (t) become less and less correlated. we conclude that X (t) and Y (t) are not jointly wide sense stationary.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 10. x1 ) = 1 (2π )n/2 [det (CX )]1/2 1 3π 2 e− 3 2 2 2 x0 −x0 x1 +x1 (5) 1 exp − x C−1 x X 2 (6) (7) =√ 63 Address:104 pine meadows loop.11 (1) The autocorrelation of Y (t) is RY (t.12 From the problem statement. τ ) depends on both t and τ . we see that by viewing a process backwards in time. To see why this is. In this case. Quiz 10.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.X (t+1) (x0 . τ ) = E [Y (t)Y (t + τ )] = E [X (−t)X (−t − τ )] = R X (−t − (−t − τ )) = R X (τ ) (1) (2) (3) Since E[Y (t)] = E[X (−t)] = µ X . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . we can conclude that Y (t) is a wide sense stationary process. we see the same second order statistics. suppose R X (τ ) = e−|τ | so that samples of X (t) far apart in time have almost no correlation. In this case. R X Y (t. we can check whether they are jointly wide sense stationary by seeing if R X Y (t. τ ) = E [X (t)Y (t + τ )] = E [X (t)X (−t − τ )] = R X (t − (−t − τ )) = R X (2t + τ ) (4) (5) (6) Since R X Y (t. E [X (t)] = E [X (t + 1)] = 0 E [X (t)X (t + 1)] = 1/2 Var[X (t)] = Var[X (t + 1)] = 1 The Gaussian random vector X = X (t) X (t + 1) sponding inverse CX = Since 1 1/2 1/2 1 C−1 = X (1) (2) (3) has covariance matrix and corre- 4 1 −1/2 1 3 −1/2 (4) 4 4 2 1 −1/2 x0 2 x − x0 x+ x1 = 1 x1 3 −1/2 3 0 the joint PDF of X (t) and X (t + 1) is the Gaussian vector PDF x C−1 x = x0 x1 X f X (t). hot springs. In fact. (2) Since X (t) and Y (t) are both wide sense stationary processes.

Examine the head-of-schedule event. Quiz 10. we know the system state cannot change until the next scheduled event. we must block the call. where Sk is an exponential (λ) random variable. increase the system state n by 1. A simulation of the system moves from one time instant to the next by maintaining a chronological schedule of future events (arrivals and departures) to be executed. we need to know that M(t). 2. namely arrivals and departures. 3. the number of ongoing calls. • When the head-of-schedule event is the kth arrival is at time t.13. satisfies M(t) < c = 120. – If M(t) = c. • If the head of schedule event is a departure. Start at time t = 0 with an empty system.28 admits a deceptively simple solution in terms of the vector of arrivals A and the vector of departures D. do not schedule a departure event. The blocking switch is an example of a discrete event system. Schedule the first arrival to occur at S1 . 64 Address:104 pine meadows loop. at discrete time instances. The logic of such a simulation is 1. The program simply executes the event at the head of the schedule. Delete the head-of-schedule event and go to step 2. Call blocking can be implemented by setting the service time of the call to zero so that the call departs as soon as it arrives.13 The simple structure of the switch simulation of Example 10.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. and schedule a departure to occur at time t + Sn . block the arrival. After the head-of-schedule event is completed and any new events (departures in this system) are scheduled. admit the arrival. hot springs. – If M(t) < c. we cannot generate these vectors all at once. when an arrival occurs at time t. check the state M(t). With the introduction of call blocking. when M(t) = c. reduce the system state n by 1. an exponential (λ) random variable. The system evolves via a sequence of discrete events.com Phone:5017621195 120 100 80 M(t) 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 t 60 70 80 90 100 Figure 4: Sample path of 100 minutes of the blocking switch of Quiz 10. In particular. AR. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . Otherwise.

plot(t.000 minute simulation. a result known as the “Erlang-B formula. Thus for all times t(i) between the current head-of-schedule event and the next.” From the Erlang-B formula.000 minute full simulation produced a=49658 admitted calls and b=239 blocked calls. One reason our simulation underestimates the blocking probability is that in a 5. In our simulation. event(i)=1 if the ith scheduled event is an arrival.t). Nevertheless. In most programming languages.0048. or event(i)=-1 if the ith scheduled event is a departure. we will learn that the exact blocking probability is given by Equation (12.1. a simple (but not elegant) way to do this is to have maintain two vectors: time is a list of timestamps of scheduled events and event is a the list of event types.0048 and 0. 65 Address:104 pine meadows loop. Thus this would account for only part of the disparity. AR. we use the vector t as the set of time instances at which we inspect the system state. We can estimate the probability a call is blocked as b ˆ = 0.0057. a kind of Markov chain. we set m(i) to the current switch state. When the program is passed a vector t.m). [m. this says that roughly the first two percent of the simulation time was unusual.a.0.b]=simblockswitch(10. However. The 5. The complete program is shown in Figure 5. In M ATLAB.1:5000. (1) Pb = a+b In Chapter 12. we will learn that the blocking switch is an example of an M/M/c/c queue. we can calculate that the exact blocking probability is Pb = 0. A sample path of the first 100 minutes of that simulation is shown in Figure 4. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . the discrete event simulation is widely-used and often very efficient simulation method.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. In this case. Note that in Chapter 12. for very complicated systems. hot springs. The rest of the gap between 0. the output [m a b] is such that m(i) is the number of ongoing calls at time t(i) while a and b are the number of admits and blocks. The following instructions t=0:0.120. it is common to implement the event schedule as a linked list where each item in the list has a data structure indicating an event timestamp and the type of the event. roughly the first 100 minutes are needed to load up the switch since the switch is idle when the simulation starts at time t = 0. Chapter 12 develops techniques for analyzing and simulating systems described by Markov chains that are much simpler than the discrete event simulation technique shown here.000 minutes.93).com Phone:5017621195 Thus we know that M(t) will stay the same until then. generated a simulation lasting 5.0057 is that a simulation that includes only 239 blocks is not all that likely to give a very accurate result for the blocking probability.

event(1)=[ ].Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. else blocks=blocks+1.1).. event=[ 1 ]. % next arrival b4arrival=time<arrival. %one more block. % clear current event if (eventnow==1) % arrival arrival=timenow+exponentialrv(lam.1) ].com Phone:5017621195 function [M. immed departure disp(sprintf(’Time %10. b4depart=time<depart. tmax=max(t)..1). end end Figure 5: Discrete event simulation of the blocking switch of Quiz 10. %first event is an arrival timenow=0. end elseif (eventnow==-1) %departure n=n-1. depart=timenow+exponentialrv(mu.t).admits. timenow=time(1).3d Admits %10d Blocks %10d’. AR.blocks)). blocks=0. time(1)= [ ]. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . time=[time(b4arrival) arrival time(˜b4arrival)]. 66 Address:104 pine meadows loop. % # in system time=[ exponentialrv(lam. %total # blocks admits=0. event=[event(b4depart) -1 event(˜b4depart)]. while (timenow<tmax) M((timenow<=t)&(t<time(1)))=n. n=0.c.blocks]=simblockswitch(lam. time=[time(b4depart) depart time(˜b4depart)]. hot springs.mu. timenow.. eventnow=event(1). event=[event(b4arrival) 1 event(˜b4arrival)].13. n=n+1.admits. if n<c %call admitted admits=admits+1. %total # admits M=zeros(size(t)).

The variance of Yn is Var[Yn ] = E[Yn ] = RY [0] = 1. µY = µ X ∞ −∞ h(t)dt = 2 0 ∞ e−t dt = 2 (1) Since R X (τ ) = δ(τ ).2 The expected value of the output is ∞ ∞ −τ h(u)h(τ + u) du = ∞ −τ 1 e−u e−τ −u du = eτ 2 (4) (5) µY = µ X n=−∞ h n = 0. For τ < 0. we have RY (τ ) = 0 ∞ e−u e−τ −u du = e−τ 0 ∞ 1 e−2u du = e−τ 2 (3) For τ < 0. 67 Address:104 pine meadows loop.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 11 Quiz 11.5(1 + −1) = 0 (1) The autocorrelation of the output is 1 1 RY [n] = i=0 j=0 h i h j R X [n + i − j] 1 n=0 0 otherwise (2) (3) = 2R X [n] − R X [n − 1] − R X [n + 1] = 2 Since µY = 0. RY (τ ) = Hence. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . hot springs. Just to be safe though. AR. we can deduce that RY (τ ) = 1 e−|τ | by symmetry.1 By Theorem 11.2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. 1 RY (τ ) = e−|τ | 2 Quiz 11. we 2 can double check. the autocorrelation function of the output is RY (τ ) = ∞ −∞ ∞ h(u) −∞ h(v)δ(τ + u − v) dv du = ∞ −∞ h(u)h(τ + u) du (2) For τ > 0.

we need to find the covariance matrix CY . RX = I.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. it is simpler to observe that Y = HX where X = X 30 X 31 X 32 X 33 X 34 X 35 and ⎡ ⎤ 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 H = ⎣0 1 1 1 1 0⎦ . Since R X [n] = δn . 4 0 0 1 1 1 1 (2) (3) In this case.1 0. we obtain RY = HRX H . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .7. In this problem.3 By Theorem 11. Fo find the PDF of the Gaussian vector Y. or by directly applying Theorem 5. hot springs. by Theorem 11.6 SX(f) 0. 68 Address:104 pine meadows loop.1 0 τ 0.4 0. Y = Y33 Y34 Y35 is a Gaussian random vector since X n is a Gaussian random process.com Phone:5017621195 x 10 8 0.5. following Theorem 11.2 X (a) W = 10 (b) W = 1000 Figure 6: The autocorrelation R X (τ ) and power spectral density S X ( f ) for process X (t) in Quiz 11. One way to find the RY is to observe that RY has the Toeplitz structure of Theorem 11.5.6 and to use Theorem 11.13 with µX = 0 and A = H. Quiz 11. (1) Despite the fact that R X [k] is an impulse.5 to find the autocorrelation function ∞ ∞ RY [n] = i=−∞ j=−∞ h i h j R X [n + i − j].2 0 −15 −10 −5 0 f 5 10 15 SX(f) 6 4 2 0 −1500−1000 −500 10 R (τ) 5 0 −5 −2 −1 0 τ 1 x 10 2 −3 0 f 500 1000 1500 10 RX(τ) 5 0 −5 −0.8. each Yn has expected value E[Yn ] = µ X ∞ n=−∞ h n = 0. which equals the correlation matrix RY since Y has zero expected value. using Equation (1) is surprisingly tedious because we still need to sum over all i and j such that n + i − j = 0. the identity matrix. Moreover. Thus E[Y] = 0.2 −0. AR.

1 0. C−1 = 16 ⎣−1/2 Y 1/12 −1/2 7/12 Thus.1 R X [1] R X [0] 0. X n+1 = Xn 0.9 1.9 1. CY = RY = HH = 16 2 3 4 (4) It follows (very quickly if you use M ATLAB for 3 × 3 matrix inversion) that ⎡ ⎤ 7/12 −1/2 1/12 1 −1/2⎦ .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1 0. In this case. Xn = X n−1 X n and RXn = and RXn X n+1 = E 1. X n+1 = 400 400 (4) to find the mean square error. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .com Phone:5017621195 Thus ⎡ ⎤ 4 3 2 1 ⎣ 3 4 3⎦ . AR. 0.9 400 261 (3) It follows that the filter is h = 261/400 81/400 and the MMSE linear predictor is 81 261 ˆ X n−1 + Xn. one approach is to follow the method of Example 11.9 for the case of k = 1 and M = 2.9 h = R−1 RXn X n+1 = Xn 0.81 81 = . Y 2 (5) (6) A disagreeable amount of algebra will show det(CY ) = 3/1024 and that the PDF can be “simplified” to 16 7 2 7 2 1 2 y33 + y34 + y35 − y33 y34 + y33 y35 − y34 y35 exp −8 f Y (y) = √ 3 12 12 6 6π .1 1 0. Y Quiz 11.9 R X [0] R X [1] = 0.13 and to directly calculate ˆ (5) e∗ = E (X n+1 − X n+1 )2 . the PDF of Y is f Y (y) = 1 (2π )3/2 [det (CY )]1/2 1 exp − y C−1 y . L 69 Address:104 pine meadows loop.9 R X [1] −1 (1) (2) The MMSE linear first order filter for predicting X n+1 at time n is the filter h such that ← − 1.81 X n−1 R X [2] = . hot springs. (7) Equation (7) shows that one of the nicest features of the multivariate Gaussian distribution is that y C−1 y is a very concise representation of the cross-terms in the exponent of f Y (y).4 This quiz is solved using Theorem 11.

com Phone:5017621195 This method is workable for this simple problem but becomes increasingly tedious for higher order filters. hot springs. Consulting Table 11. 70 Address:104 pine meadows loop. It is noteworthy that the result is derived in a much simpler way in the proof of Theorem 9.1. we note that 1 f S X ( f ) = 10 rect (2) 2W 2W It follows that the inverse transform of S X ( f ) is sin(2π W τ ) R X (τ ) = 10 sinc(2W τ ) = 10 (3) 2π W τ (3) For W = 10 Hz and W = 1 kHZ. X = X n+1 and ← − ˆ a = h .3487. the mean square error is 1 506 ← − 0. we obtain Xn e∗ = R X [0] − RXn X n+1 R−1 RXn X n+1 L Xn ← − = R X [0] − h RXn X n+1 (11) (12) Note that this is essentially the same result as Theorem 9. In any case.13(b). AR.1 − = = 0.81 81 261 e∗ = R X [0] − h RXn X n+1 = 1. the average power of X (t) is E X 2 (t) = ∞ −∞ W −W SX ( f ) d f = 5 d f = 10 Watts W (1) (2) The autocorrelation function is the inverse Fourier transform of S X ( f ). Since X n+1 = h Xn . e∗ = E L ← − X n+1 − h Xn 2 (6) (7) (8) ← − ← − = E (X n+1 − h Xn )(X n+1 − h Xn ) ← − ← − = E (X n+1 − h Xn )(X n+1 − Xn h ) After a bit of algebra. Instead. we see that observing X n−1 and X n improves the accuracy of our prediction of X n+1 . we can derive the mean square error for an arbitary prediction ← − ˆ filter h.9 400 1451 recalling that the blind estimate would yield a mean square error of Var[X ] = 1. we obtain ← − ← − ← − e∗ = R X [0] − 2 h RXn X n+1 + h RXn h L (9) (10) ← − with the substitution h = R−1 RXn X n+1 . graphs of S X ( f ) and R X (τ ) appear in Figure 6. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . (13) L 0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.1.5 (1) By Theorem 11.7 with Y = Xn .7 by using the orthoginality property of the LMSE estimator. Quiz 11.

17.1. From Table 11. then ∞ S X (φ) = n=−∞ 10δ[n]e− j2π φn = 10 (1) Thus. hot springs.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 11. a0 Consulting with the Fourier transforms in Table 11.1. SY ( f ) = H ∗ ( f )S X Y ( f ) = |H ( f )|2 S X ( f ). the discrete time impulse δ[n] has a flat discrete Fourier transform. if R X [n] = 10δ[n].000 so that 1 (1) R X (τ ) = a0 e−a0 |τ | .7 Since Y (t) = X (t − t0 ). H( f ) = (1) Theorem 11. τ ) = R X Y (τ ) = R X (τ − t0 ).6 In a sampled system. R X [n] = 10δ[n]. (This quiz is really lame!) Quiz 11. we see that 2 2a0 1 2a0 SX ( f ) = = 2 2 + (2π f )2 a0 a0 a0 + (2π f )2 (2) The RC filter has impulse response h(t) = a1 e−a1 t u(t).1. That is. R X Y (t.8 We solve this quiz using Theorem 11. 71 (5) 2a0 a1 . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we recall the property that g(τ − τ0 ) has Fourier transform G( f )e− j2π f τ0 . (2) Quiz 11. Thus the Fourier transform of R X Y (τ ) = R X (τ − t0 ) = g(τ − t0 ) is S X Y ( f ) = S X ( f )e− j2π f t0 . S X Y ( f ) = H ( f )S X ( f ) = (2) Again by Theorem 11.17. where u(t) is the unit step function and a1 = 1/RC where RC = 10−4 is the filter time constant. 2 [a1 + j2π f ] a0 + (2π f )2 (4) a1 a1 + j2π f (3) Address:104 pine meadows loop. AR. From Table 11. First we need some preliminary facts. Let a0 = 5.17. τ ) = E [X (t)Y (t + τ )] = E [X (t)X (t + τ − t0 )] = R X (τ − t0 ) (1) We see that R X Y (t.

(12) The average power of the Y (t) process is RY (0) = a1 2 = . a1 + a0 3 (13) Note that the input signal has average power R X (0) = 1. Using partial fractions and the Fourier transform table. (9) (10) Consulting with Table 11. In particular.000 rad/sec. SY ( f ) = 2 2 2a0 a0 + (2π f )2 2a1 a1 + (2π f )2 2 a0 K0 K1 + + (2π f )2 a1 + (2π f )2 2 −2a0 a1 2 2 a1 − a0 (8) 2 2a0 a1 2 a1 − a0 . we obtain RY (τ ) = 2 a1 e−a0 |τ | − a0 a1 e−a1 |τ | 2 2 a1 − a0 .000 rad/sec and the signal X (t) has most of its its signal energy below 5. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 2 K1 = . 2 2 2a0 2a1 K0 K1 + 2 . we can either use basic calculus and ∞ calculate −∞ SY ( f ) d f directly or we can find RY (τ ) as an inverse transform of SY ( f ).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. SY ( f ) = |H ( f )|2 S X ( f ) = 2 2a0 a1 2 2 a1 + (2π f )2 a0 + (2π f )2 2 a1 a1 a1 = 2 (a1 + j2π f ) (a1 − j2π f ) a1 + (2π f )2 (6) (7) (3) To find the average power at the filter output.1. 72 Address:104 pine meadows loop. the latter method is actually less algebra. some algebra will show that SY ( f ) = where K0 = Thus. we see that RY (τ ) = K0 K1 a e−a0 |τ | + 2 a1 e−a1 |τ | 2 0 2a0 2a1 (11) Substituting the values of K 0 and K 1 . hot springs. Since the RC filter has a 3dB bandwidth of 10. the output signal has almost as much power as the input.com Phone:5017621195 Note that |H ( f )|2 = H ( f )H ∗ ( f ) = Thus. AR.

146).146) and (11. (2) Since R X (τ ) = sinc(2W τ ). Comment: Since the text omitted the derivations of Equations (11.146) and (11. where W = 5. The ˆ solution to this quiz is just to find the filter H ( f ) using Equation (11.24 showed that RY (τ ) = R X (τ ) + R N (τ ). 4 10 104 (4) The noise power spectral density can be written as S N ( f ) = N0 rect f 2B = 1 f rect 2B 2B . Because the noise process N (t) has constant power R N (0) = 1. (2) RY X (τ ) = R X (τ ). decreasing the single-sided bandwidth B increases the power spectral density of the noise over frequencies | f | < B.1 that SX ( f ) = 1 f rect .147).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. This implies R N (0) = ∞ −∞ SN ( f ) d f = B −B N0 d f = 2N0 B (3) Thus N0 = 1/(2B). us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .9 This quiz implements an example of Equations (11. (6) 73 Address:104 pine meadows loop. SY X ( f ) = S X ( f ). (1) Now we can go on to the quiz. AR. Taking Fourier transforms. we see from Table 11. at peace with the derivations. we note that Example 10. R N (0) = Var[N ] = 1.146) and to calculate the mean square error e L ∗ using Equation (11.147). it follows that SY ( f ) = S X ( f ) + S N ( f ). hot springs.147) for a system in which we filter Y (t) = X (t) + N (t) to produce an optimal linear estimate of X (t). (1) Since µ N = 0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz 11. the optimal filter is ˆ H( f ) = SX ( f ) = SX ( f ) + SN ( f ) 1 104 1 104 rect + f 104 1 2B rect f 104 rect f 2B .000 Hz. (5) From Equation (11.

hot springs. Finally. Since the problem asks us to L find the largest possible B.16 Hz. ˆ the Wiener filter H ( f ) is an ideal (flat) lowpass filter ⎧ 1 ⎨ 104 | f | < 5. The result is that the MSE goes down.05.05 requires B ≤ 5. As B shrinks. the mean square error of the estimate is e∗ = L = ∞ −∞ ∞ −∞ S X ( f )S N ( f ) df SX ( f ) + SN ( f ) 1 104 1 104 (7) f 2B f 2B rect f 104 f 104 1 2B rect rect rect + 1 2B d f.147).000. the MSE is e∗ L = 1 1 104 2B 1 1 −B 104 + 2B B df = 1 104 1 104 + 1 2B = 1 1+ 5. L Although this completes the solution to the quiz. let’s suppose B ≤ W . (8) To evaluate the MSE e∗ . The following M ATLAB program generates and plots the functions shown in Figure 8 74 Address:104 pine meadows loop. the PSD S N ( f ) becomes increasingly tall. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . The only thing to keep in mind is to use fftc to transform the autocorrelation R X [ f ] into the power spectral density S X (φ). As B is decreased. The Wiener filter removes the noise that is outside the band of the desired signal.com Phone:5017621195 ˆ ˆ (3) We produce the output X (t) by passing the noisy signal Y (t) through the filter H ( f ). The mean square error is e∗ L = 1 1 104 2B 1 1 −5000 104 + 2B 5000 df = 1 2B 1 104 + 1 2B = 1 B 5000 +1 (11) In this case. when B > W = 5000. we need to whether B ≤ W . we note that we can choose B very large and also achieve MSE e∗ = 0.05. S N ( f ) = 1/2B over frequencies | f | < W . We can go back and consider the case B > W later. AR. When B ≤ W .10 It is fairly straightforward to find S X (φ) and SY (φ). the filter H ( f ) makes an increasingly deep and narrow notch at frequencies ˆ | f | ≤ B. In this case. B ≥ 9. The noise power is always Var[N ] = 1 Watt. what is happening may not be obvious. the filter suppresses less of the signal of X (t).5 × 104 guarantees e∗ ≤ 0. for all values of B.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. From Equation (11. but only over a bandwidth B that is decreasing. 1 ˆ + 1 (10) H( f ) = 104 2B ⎩ 0 otherwise. L Quiz 11. In L particular. Thus increasing B spreads the constant 1 watt of power of N (t) over more bandwidth. Thus as ˆ B descreases.000 B (9) To obtain MSE e∗ ≤ 0. Two examples of the filter H ( f ) are shown in Figure 7.000/19 = 263.

%mquiz11. h2=0. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .10). 75 Address:104 pine meadows loop. note that the vectors SX. AR. we generate stem plots of the magnitude of each power spectral density.ylabel(’S_X(n/N)’). figure. xlabel(’n’).ylabel(’S_{Y_2}(n/N)’). SX=fftc(rx. the finite numerical precision of M ATLAB results in tiny imaginary parts. As an aside.9. SY2 and SY10 in mquiz11 should all be realvalued vectors.abs(SY2)).N). %impulse/filter response: M=10 SY10=sx. when M = 10. they tend to confuse the stem function.ˆ2). %autocorrelation and PSD stem(0:N-1.5 0 −5000 −2000 0 f 2000 5000 B = 500 B = 2500 Figure 7: Wiener filter for Quiz 11. figure.5 0 H(f) −5000 −2000 0 f 2000 5000 1 0. hot springs. %PSD of Y for M=2 xlabel(’n’).Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.ˆ2).26. Although these imaginary parts have no computational significance. h10=0.5*[1 1].com Phone:5017621195 1 H(f) 0. xlabel(’n’).abs(sx)). Relative to M = 2.N). stem(0:N-1. the low pass moving average filter for M = 10 removes the high frquency components and results in a filter output that varies very slowly.1*ones(1. Hence.abs(SY10)). However. rx=[2 4 2].*((abs(H10)). H10=fft(h10.N). stem(0:N-1.* ((abs(H2)). %impulse/filter response: M=2 SY2=SX.m N=32.ylabel(’S_{Y_{10}}(n/N)’). In the context of Example 11. H2=fft(h2. the filter H (φ) filters out almost all of the high frequency components of X (t).

76 Address:104 pine meadows loop.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. and Sφ (n/N ) for M = 10 using an N = 32 point DFT. hot springs. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . graphs of S X (φ).10. AR.com Phone:5017621195 10 SX(n/N) 5 0 0 5 10 15 n 20 25 30 35 10 SY (n/N) 2 5 0 0 5 10 15 n 20 25 30 35 10 SY (n/N) 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 n 20 25 30 35 Figure 8: For Quiz 11. SY (n/N ) for M = 2.

6 0.6 P = ⎣0.3 The Markov chain describing the factory status and the corresponding state transition matrix are 77 Address:104 pine meadows loop.4)n ⎣ 0 (4) −0.99 P X n+1 = 1|X n = 1 = 0.2 0.2 0.5 0 −0.2 0.5 1 −0.5 0.9 P X n+1 = 0|X n = 1 = 0.9 (1) Since each X n must be either 0 or 1.5 0 0.10 0.6 0.2 From the problem statement.01 0.99 0. the ith row of S. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .5 −0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2⎦ 1 0 1 0 0.2 The eigenvalues of P are λ1 = 0 λ2 = 0. From the problem statement. we are given the conditional probabilities P X n+1 = 0|X n = 0 = 0.6 0 0.1 1 P= 0. AR.2 −0.6 −0.90 (3) Quiz 12.99 0.2 Quiz 12.4 0.2⎦ + (0.5 1 (3) where si .6 0.4 0.5 1 λ1 0 0 0 −1 ⎦ 0 1 ⎦ ⎣ 0 λ2 0 ⎦ ⎣ 1 P = S−1 DS = ⎣ 0. is the left eigenvector of P satisfying si P = λi si .6 0. we can conclude that P X n+1 = 1|X n = 0 = 0. the Markov chain and the transition matrix are ⎡ ⎤ 0.1 (2) These conditional probabilities correspond to the transition matrix and Markov chain: 0. hot springs.6 0.4 0 0 λ3 0.4 λ3 = 1 (1) (2) We can diagonalize P into ⎤⎡ ⎡ ⎤ ⎤⎡ −0.4 0.2 0 0 ⎦ Pn = S−1 Dn S = ⎣0.6 0. Algebra will verify that the n-step transition matrix is ⎡ ⎡ ⎤ ⎤ 0.6 0.1 The system has two states depending on whether the previous packet was received in error.2 0.6 0.01 0.com Phone:5017621195 Quiz Solutions – Chapter 12 Quiz 12.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.01 0 0.

the state n can take on the values 0. the system of equations π = π P yields π1 = 0. Thus the states in C1 are recurrent. . C1 is a recurrent class. Once the system exits C2 .9 0. π2 = 1/12.n = P [K > n|K > n − 1] = Pn−1.1π0 and π2 = π1 . Quiz 12. 1 … 78 Address:104 pine meadows loop. 6} (1) π1 = 1/12. . The states in C2 have period 2. 3} C3 = {4..Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. hot springs. 5.com Phone:5017621195 0.0 P [K > n] P [K > n − 1] P [K = n] = P [K = n|K > n − 1] = P [K > n − 1] (1) (2) (3) The Markov chain resembles P[K=5] P[K=4] P[K= 1] P[K=2] P[K=3] 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 . Quiz 12. 2. On the other hand. the states in C3 are recurrent. This implies π0 + π1 + π2 = π0 (1 + 0.4 The communicating classes are C1 = {0.9 0. . That is. (3) (2) The states in C1 and C3 are aperiodic. the class C1 is never left. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .5 At any time t. 1... Once the system enters a state in C1 .1) = 1 It follows that the limiting state probabilities are π0 = 5/6. 1} C2 = {2. the states in C2 are transient. Similarly.1 0 0 1⎦ P=⎣ 0 1 0 0 (1) 2 With π = π0 π1 π2 .1 0 1 1 1 ⎡ ⎤ 0.1 + 0. the states in C2 are never reentered. AR. The state transition probabilities are Pn−1.

Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. If we have a random variable W such that the PMF of W satisfies PW (n) = πn . Since we spend one unit of time in each state. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . we obtain π1 = π0 (1 − P [K = 1]) = π0 P [K > 1] Similarly. π1 = π0 P [K = 2] + π2 . . including state 0. . From Equation (4).5. (6) This suggests that πk = π0 P[K > k]. Quiz 12.11.com Phone:5017621195 The stationary probabilities satisfy π0 = π0 P [K = 1] + π1 . the system is in state 0. πk−1 = π0 P [K = k] + πk . we obtain π0 ∞ P[K > k] = 1. 2. we have k − 1 units of time left after the state 0 counter reset. Equation (5) implies π2 = π1 − π0 P [K = 2] = π0 (P [K > 1] − P [K = 2]) = π0 P [K > 2] (8) (7) (4) (5) k = 1. From Problem 2. . We verify this pattern by showing that πk = π0 P[K > k] satisfies Equation (6): π0 P [K > k − 1] = π0 P [K = k] + π0 P [K > k] . Thus the period of state 0 is d = 2.6 (1) By inspection. hot springs. . The system state is the time until the counter expires. we solve the system of equations π = πP and 3 i=0 πi = 1: π0 = (3/4)π1 + (1/4)π3 π1 = (1/4)π0 + (1/4)π2 π2 = (1/4)π1 + (3/4)π3 1 = π0 + π1 + π2 + π3 79 (1) (2) (3) (4) Address:104 pine meadows loop. (2) To find the stationary probabilities. This implies πn = P [K > n] E [K ] (10) This Markov chain models repeated random countdowns. AR. . and we randomly reset the counter to a new value K = k and then we count down k units of time. then W has a discrete PMF representing the remaining time of the counter at a time in the distant future. When the counter expires. n=0 > k] = E[K ]. . the number of transitions need to return to state 0 is always a multiple of 2. When we apply we recall that ∞ k=0 πk ∞ k=0 P[K (9) = 1.

(1) Thus the CDF of T00 satisfies FT00 (n) = 1− P[T00 > n] = 1−1/n α . we can use Theorem 12.(4/5)a a 2 3 4 … The event T00 > n occurs if the system reaches state n before returning to state 0.7 The Markov chain has the same structure as that in Example 12. The only difference is the modified transition rates: 1 (1/2)a (2/3)a (3/4) a (4/5) a 0 1. nα (2) 80 Address:104 pine meadows loop.com Phone:5017621195 Solving the second and third equations for π2 and π3 yields π2 = 4π1 − π0 π3 = (4/3)π2 − (1/3)π1 = 5π1 − (4/3)π0 (5) Substituting π3 back into the first equation yields π0 = (3/4)π1 + (1/4)π3 = (3/4)π1 + (5/4)π1 − (1/3)π0 (6) This implies π1 = (2/3)π0 . we observe that for all α > 0 P [V00 ] = lim FT00 (n) = lim 1 − n→∞ n→∞ 1 = 1. AR. Lastly. we choose π0 so the state probabilities sum to 1: 16 2 5 1 = π0 + π1 + π2 + π3 = π0 1 + + + 2 = π0 (7) 3 3 3 It follows that the state probabilities are π0 = 3 16 π1 = 2 16 π2 = 5 16 π3 = 6 16 (8) (3) Since the system starts in state 0 at time 0.(3/4) 1 . hot springs. It follows from the first and second equations that π2 = (5/3)π0 and π3 = 2π0 . which occurs with probability P [T00 1 > n] = 1 × 2 α 2 × 3 α n−1 × ··· × n α = 1 n α .Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. To determine whether state 0 is recurrent.14 to find the limiting probability that the system is in state 0 at time nd: lim P00 (nd) = dπ0 = 3 8 (9) n→∞ Quiz 12. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .(2/3) a 1 .(1/2) a 1 1 .22.

In this problem.com Phone:5017621195 Thus state 0 is recurrent for all α > 0. 1/n α ≥ 1/n and it follows that ∞ E [T00 ] ≥ 1 + n=1 1 = ∞. it will be simpler to use the result of Problem 2. Since the chain has only one communicating class.) To determine whether the chain is null recurrent or positive recurrent.5. In Example 12.11 which says that ∞ P[K > k] = k=0 E[K ] for any non-negative integer-valued random variable K . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . for α > 1. Quiz 12. AR.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. we did this by deriving the PMF PT00 (n). hot springs. we need to calculate E[T00 ].24. ∞ 1 E [T00 ] = 2 + . nα (3) For 0 < α ≤ 1. ( We also note that if α = 0. On the other hand. the expected time to return to state 0 is ∞ ∞ E [T00 ] = n=0 P [T00 > n] = 1 + n=1 1 . (5) nα n=2 Note that for all n ≥ 2 1 ≤ nα ∞ n n−1 dx xα (6) This implies E [T00 ] ≤ 2 + =2+ n n=2 n−1 ∞ dx 1 dx xα (7) (8) xα x −α+1 =2+ −α + 1 ∞ =2+ 1 1 <∞ α−1 (9) Thus for all α > 1. the Markov chain is positive recurrent. then all states are transient. Applying this result.8 The number of customers in the ”friendly” store is given by the Markov chain (1-p)(1-q) p (1-p)(1-q) p (1-p)(1-q) p (1-p)(1-q) 0 (1-p)q 1 (1-p)q ××× i (1-p)q (1-p)q i+1 ××× 81 Address:104 pine meadows loop. n (4) We conclude that the Markov chain is null recurrent for 0 < α ≤ 1. all states are recurrent.

13 with state space partitioned between S = {0. .01 2 3 3 3 4 Note that q10 = 3.com Phone:5017621195 In the above chain. the limiting state probabilities do not exist. . the limiting state probabilities are πi = (1 − α)α i . . . yielding p4 = 20 p3 31 p3 = 620 p2 981 p2 = 82 19620 p1 31431 p1 = 628. 1−α (4) Thus for α < 1. i + 2. we obtain the following useful equations for the stationary distribution. 014. ∞ ∞ (3) πi = π0 i=0 i=0 αi = π0 = 1. for α ≥ 1 or.01 p4 = 2 p3 We can solve these equations by working backward and solving for p4 in terms of p3 . an existing customer gets one unit of service and then departs the store.01 p1 = 2 p0 + 3 p2 5. α= (1 − p)q Requiring the state probabilities to sum to 1. i = 0.1 per msec and the rate to state 0 is the sum of those two rates. i} and S = {i + 1.01 0. 1. . Quiz 12. we have that πi = π0 α i where p . πi p = πi+1 (1 − p)q. . equivalently. . (1 − p)q (1) (2) Since Equation (2) holds for i = 0. we see that for any state i ≥ 0.01 p3 = 2 p2 + 3 p4 5. From the Markov chain. By applying Theorem 12. us (United States) Zip Code:71901 . 381 (1) Address:104 pine meadows loop. we note that (1 − p)q is the probability that no new customer arrives..9 The continuous time Markov chain describing the processor is 2 2 2 2 0 3. hot springs. .01 0. (5) In addition.01 p2 = 2 p1 + 3 p3 3. 620 p0 1. This implies πi+1 = p πi . 1. 2. . p ≥ q/(1 − q). . 1. AR. . we have that for α < 1. . 5. .}.01 1 3 0. p3 in terms of p2 and so on.1 since the task completes at rate 3 per msec and the processor reboots at rate 0.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo.

. 401 and the stationary probabilities are p0 = 0.1606 p3 = 0. 381/2. .0655 Quiz 12. hot springs. 2. 2.Name:joey iwatsuru Email:joeyiwat@yahoo. c (ρ/c) pn−1 n = c + 1. . the stationary probabilities must satisfy pn = (ρ/n) pn−1 n = 1. . .4151 p1 = 0. . . . 014. c + 2. . c n−c c p0 (ρ/c) ρ /c! n = c + 1. (1) It is straightforward to show that this implies pn = The requirement that ∞ n=0 p0 ρ n /n! n = 1. . c + 2. 443. pn = 1 yields c (2) p0 = n=0 ρ c ρ/c ρ /n! + c! 1 − ρ/c n −1 (3) 83 Address:104 pine meadows loop. . us (United States) Zip Code:71901 .2573 p2 = 0.1015 p4 = 0. .10 The M/M/c/∞ queue has Markov chain λ λ λ λ λ (2) 0 µ 1 2µ cµ c cµ c+1 cµ From the Markov chain. AR. . .com Phone:5017621195 Applying p0 + p1 + p2 + p3 + p4 = 1 yields p0 = 1.

You're Reading a Free Preview

Descarga
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->